Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorGreene, AM
dc.contributor.authorKhomyakov, I
dc.date.accessioned2013-12-17T19:31:21Z
dc.date.available2013-12-17T19:31:21Z
dc.date.issued2013-12
dc.identifier.citationGreene AM, Khomyakov I. 2013. Simulation of near-term climate change at target sites in West and East Africa. CCAFS Working Paper No. 58. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/34269
dc.description.abstractWe describe the generation of synthetic sequences of precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperatures at two locations, in western and eastern Africa respectively. The sequences are generated at the monthly time scale and incorporate both explicitly modelled annual-to-decadal variability, based on the observational record, and long-range (i.e., climate change) trends, as inferred from an ensemble of global climate models. Annual-to-decadal variability is modelled as a first-order vector autoregressive (VAR) process, and the simulations are temporally downscaled to monthly time resolution using a nonparametric resampling scheme. The modelled sequences reproduce well the observed covariances as well as serial autocorrelation in individual variables. The simulations are intended to drive agricultural or other applications models to investigate responses to a range of plausible trends, on which are superimposed decade-scale climate fluctuations whose likelihood of occurrence can be estimated.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCCAFS Working Papers;58
dc.subjectSTOCHASTIC MODELSen_US
dc.subjectCLIMATEen_US
dc.titleSimulation of near-term climate change at target sites in West and East Africaen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
cg.identifier.statusOpen Accessen_US
cg.subject.ccafsDATA AND TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS AND PLANNINGen_US
cg.subject.ccafsPRIORITIES AND POLICIES FOR CSAen_US
cg.coverage.regionAFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARAen_US
cg.coverage.regionEAST AFRICAen_US
cg.coverage.regionWEST ASIAen_US
cg.coverage.regionWEST AND CENTRAL AFRICAen_US
cg.coverage.countryKENYAen_US
cg.coverage.countrySENEGALen_US
cg.contributor.crpClimate Change, Agriculture and Food Security


Files in this item

Thumbnail
Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record