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dc.contributor.authorDube S
dc.contributor.authorScholes, Robert J.
dc.contributor.authorNelson, Gerald C.
dc.contributor.authorMason-D'Croz, D.
dc.contributor.authorPalazzo, Amanda
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-16T06:37:31Z
dc.date.available2014-12-16T06:37:31Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.identifier.citationDube S, Scholes RJ, Nelson GC, Mason-D’Croz D, Palazzo A. 2013. South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures. Economics 7:1-54
dc.identifier.issn1864-6042
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10568/52079
dc.description.abstractThe projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. Vulnerability to food insecurity increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market- related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production in South Africa, decrease climate sensitivity and access to international markets are highlighted.
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectCROP YIELD
dc.subjectSIMULATION MODELS
dc.titleSouth African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures
dc.typeJournal Article
cg.identifier.statusOpen Access
cg.subject.ccafsPRIORITIES AND POLICIES FOR CSA
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-35
cg.coverage.regionAFRICA
cg.coverage.regionSOUTHERN AFRICA
cg.coverage.countrySOUTH AFRICA
cg.contributor.crpCLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY


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