Prospects for the EU cereals market
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CTA. 2003. Prospects for the EU cereals market. Agritrade, August 2003. CTA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Permanent link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10568/52496
The European Commission released its review of the 'Prospects for Agricultural...
The European Commission released its review of the 'Prospects for Agricultural Markets in the European Union 2003-2010' in June 2003. In the cereals sector the report projected a 'relatively fragile' situation. The recent rise in cereal imports and domestic EU production, combined with a lower than expected expansion of cereal exports (in part accounted for by the rising value of the Euro against the US $) will lead to a significant growth in cereals stocks over the 2002/2003 period. Stocks are then likely to remain high as production expands and demand remains constrained by only a moderate expansion of EU animal production Increases in yields will more than off-set the decline in the area under cereals. EU exports are expected to average around 30 million tonnes over the medium term (with a projection of exports at 31.3 million tonnes in 2010 as opposed to 19.9 million tonnes in 2001). The EU-15 wheat sector is expected to show strong gains, with production up from 103.3 million tonnes in 2002 to 113.9 million tonnes in 2010 and exports up from 16.5 million in 2002 to 18.8 million in 2010. While most of this increased production will be absorbed within the domestic EU market, a steady growth in exports at world market prices is expected. Comment: The increased exports of wheat at world market prices (i.e. without any WTO constraints) is potentially the most serious development that is of concern to ACP countries, since it is also likely to fuel exports of competitively priced EU wheat-based products . It should be borne in mind, however, that these are projections and not projects, with considerable uncertainty arising from exchange-rate variations; the export capacity of newly emerging exporting regions (Black Sea countries and Brazil); the level of global economic recovery; the outcome of the Doha Development Round; and the final impact of the CAP compromise agreement.