Trade statistics paint an optimist picture
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CTA. 2002. Trade statistics paint an optimist picture. Agritrade, November 2002. CTA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Permanent link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10568/52585
A statistical summary posted on the internet by...
A statistical summary posted on the internet by the Commission shows an expansion of ACP exports to the EU of 9% in 2001 following a record 31% rise in 2000. The memo expresses the view that this 'suggests the stagnation which characterised EU-ACP trade during the 1990s may finally be coming to an end'. According to the Commission the increase in ACP exports were mainly of prepared foodstuffs, diamonds, aluminium, cocoa and oil. Five products (oil - 30%, diamonds - 10%, cocoa beans - 4%, wood - 4% and sugar cane - 3%) account for 51% of total ACP exports to the EU. Four ACP countries account for 40% of total ACP exports to the EU. Finished products made up only 19% of ACP exports to the EU, of which textiles and clothing and prepared foodstuffs were the most important categories. Accounting for 3.4% and 3% respectively. Finished products accounted for 16% of the increase in ACP exports in 2001. The EU accounts for 29% of total ACP exports (compared to 33% for the USA), and provides 29% of all ACP imports (compared to 18% for the USA). LDC exports to the EU increased by 15% in 2001. Excluding oil the EU accounts for over 80% of QUAD (EU, Japan, USA and Canada) imports from African ACP countries (compared to 10% for the USA). EU exports to the ACP grew 4% in 2001, following a rise of 21% in 2000. The most important EU exports are machinery and mechanical equipment (25%), vehicles, aircraft and other transport equipment (24%) and chemical products (10%). The most important ACP markets for EU exports are Nigeria (which takes 18% of EU exports), Angola (5%), Ivory Coast (5%), Gabon (4%), Cameroon (4%), Dominican Republic (4%) and Senegal (4%). Comment: While the Euro value of ACP exports to the EU increased 43% between 1999 and 2001 it should be borne in mind that the prices of the major ACP exports to the EU, such as oil, cocoa, coffee, tobacco and aluminium are all denominated in US$. With the Euro devaluing against the US$ by 24% between 1999 and 2001, a major expansion of the Euro value of ACP exports would be expected simply on the basis of currency fluctuations. Earnings from ACP oil exports alone accounted for fully 60% of the increase in total ACP exports to the EU between 1999 and 2001. Taking out this oil factor, ACP exports to the EU increased only 17% between 1999 and 2001. More detailed analysis is required to ascertain whether the increase in the Euro value of ACP exports reflects any underlying structural changes in the ACPs trade with the EU.