EU beef sector forecasts
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CTA. 2003. EU beef sector forecasts. Agritrade, March 2003. CTA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Permanent link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10568/52941
Reports from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) suggest that EU...
Reports from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) suggest that EU beef production will be lower in 2003 as a result of a reduction in both the dairy and beef herds. However, EU beef exports are expected to increase as import restrictions arising from animal disease problems in the EU are lifted. Sales from intervention stocks are likely to continue into 2003. Some beef bought in under the 'special purchase scheme' has already been sent abroad as food aid (to North Korea). It is expected that the market effects of the BSE crisis will continue to fade in 2003 with implications for poultry and pork consumption in the EU. Beef prices in some EU countries have returned to pre-BSE levels. In the long term, however, beef consumption is expected to decline as consumers in France and the UK switch to other meats. Germany, Spain, Ireland and Italy could, however, see some marginal increase in beef consumption. In budgetary terms EU expenditure in the meat sector is expected to grow as a result of higher export refund allocations to make EU meat exports price competitive, and increased direct aid premiums arising form the Agenda 2000 reforms. A noticeable trend in the EU market is the increased availability of both in-quota and out-of-quota beef imports from South America. The USDA suggests that having gained market share, imports of less expensive South American beef could increase still further in the future. Comment: The growth in less expensive Latin American beef exports could put pressure on ACP beef suppliers, particularly as EU market prices fall in response to further rounds of beef-sector reform.