USDA wheat outlook
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CTA. 2003. USDA wheat outlook. Agritrade, June 2003. CTA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Permanent link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10568/52946
According to the USDA Economic Research Service's Wheat Outlook of May 14th...
According to the USDA Economic Research Service's Wheat Outlook of May 14th 2003, world wheat consumption in 2003/04 is expected to exceed production for the fourth consecutive year, causing year-end world wheat stocks to fall to the lowest level in 15 years. World wheat production is expected to grow less than 1% in 2003/04. Non-US wheat production in 2003/04 is projected at 512 million tonnes, the lowest since 1995/96. This is mainly the result of adverse weather conditions for winter wheat in Russia, the Ukraine, eastern Europe and parts of the EU, where production is down 2 million tonnes to 101 million tonnes. World wheat stocks are down 39 million tonnes from last year at 156 million tonnes. Global wheat consumption is projected to decline by 13 million tonnes to 591 million tons, largely as a result of reduced use in animal feed. In the EU feed consumption is likely to be down 4 million tonnes as a result of tariff-rate quotas imposed on low- and medium-quality wheat imports, and reduced availability of imported wheat for feed. World wheat trade is projected to drop 7 million tonnes to 98 million tonnes in 2003/04. Total EU wheat imports are expected to be down 5.5 million tonnes to a mere 5 million tonnes. Again this is in response to the imposition of tariff-rate quotas on low- and medium-quality wheat. EU wheat exports are projected to decline by 1 million tonnes to 14.5 million because of the tightening internal supply situation.