USDA cotton outlook
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CTA. 2003. USDA cotton outlook. Agritrade, June 2003. CTA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Permanent link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10568/52949
According to the USDA Economic Research Service's Cotton and Wool Outlook of...
According to the USDA Economic Research Service's Cotton and Wool Outlook of May 13th 2003, world cotton production next year is projected at 96.5 million bales, 10% above the current season's crop. 2003/04 cotton consumption is projected to rise for the fifth consecutive year reaching a record 99 million bales. During the last five years world cotton consumption has grown 2.3% annually, and during the last ten years at 1.3% annually. With world cotton consumption projected to remain above production, global year-end stocks are forecast to decline for the second year in a row to their lowest level since 1994/95. Increased cotton consumption is driven by a favourable price relationship with other fibres. A stabilisation of cotton consumption is now thought to be likely after the sharp decline in earlier years (from a 49.1% share of total fibre usage in 1990 to 41.3% in 1998). This Outlook reports world cotton prices to be recovering, (with an adjusted world market price in April 2003 of 48.42 c/lb compared with 28.10 c/lb in April 2002), in consequence there have been increased cotton plantings in India, China and Australia. US cotton exports are expected to reach a record high of 11.5 million bales in 2003/04. Comment: The record highs in US cotton exports illustrates the extent to which US subsidies have a determining influence on world market prices.