Simulating stakeholder-driven food and climate scenarios for policy development in Africa, Asia and Latin America A multi-regional synthesis

Abstract

The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) engaged stakeholders in Africa, Asia and Latin America in the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for policy development. These scenarios were framed and outlined by regional experts and then quantified using the IMPACT and GLOBIOM models. The scenarios were used in a number of policy design processes at national and regional levels. The model results show that investment in agriculture is essential to close yield gaps needed for growing demand, and that increases in production costs increases these yield gaps. However, even under high agricultural investments, regional production is unlikely to meet regional demand. In many cases, the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios are more impactful than climate effects on yields. Increased yields can lead to crop area expansion, and the protection and enforcement of forests and biodiversity is essential, especially with increased investment in agriculture. The CCAFS scenarios process show the need to combine socio-economic and climate scenarios, to base these scenarios in regional expertise, and ways to make scenarios useful for policy design.