The influence of current and future climate-induced risk on the agricultural sector in East and Central Africa: Sensitizing the ASARECA strategic plan to climate change
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van de Steeg JA, Herrero M, Kinyangi J, Thornton PK, Rao KPC, Stern R, Cooper P. 2009. The influence of climate variability and climate change on the agricultural sector in East and Central Africa — Sensitizing the ASARECA strategic plan to climate change. ILRI Research report 22. ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute), Nairobi, Kenya, ICRISAT (International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics), Nairobi, Kenya, and ASARECA (Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa), Entebbe, Uganda.
Permanent link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10568/588
Rainfed agriculture is and will remain the dominant source of staple food production for the majority of the rural poor in Eastern and Central Africa (ECA). It is clear that larger investments in agriculture by a broad range of stakeholders will be required if this sector is to meet the food security requirements of tomorrow’s Africa. Many factors contribute to the current low levels of investment, but production uncertainty associated with between- and within-season rainfall variability remains a fundamental constraint to many investors who often overestimate the impact of climate induced uncertainty. The climate of Africa is warmer than it was 100 years ago. Model-based predictions of future greenhouse gas-induced climate change for the continent clearly suggest that this warming will continue and, in most scenarios, accelerate. The projections for rainfall are less uniform; large regional differences exist in rainfall variability. However, there is likely to be an increase in annual mean precipitation in East Africa.