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dc.contributor.authorBoeckel, Thomas P. van
dc.contributor.authorBrower, C.
dc.contributor.authorGilbert, M.
dc.contributor.authorGrenfell, B.T.
dc.contributor.authorLevin, S.A.
dc.contributor.authorRobinson, Timothy P.
dc.contributor.authorTeillant, A.
dc.contributor.authorLaxminarayan, R.
dc.date.accessioned2015-03-23T06:32:09Z
dc.date.available2015-03-23T06:32:09Z
dc.date.issued2015-02-18
dc.identifier.citationBoeckel, T.P. Van, Brower, C., Gilbert, M., Grenfell, B.T., Levin, S.A., Robinson, T.P., Teillant, A. and Laxminarayan, R. 2015. Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals. PNAS 112(18): 5649 - 5654.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/59811
dc.description.abstractDemand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg⋅kg−1, 148 mg⋅kg−1, and 172 mg⋅kg−1 for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.sourceProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_US
dc.subjectFOOD SAFETYen_US
dc.titleGlobal trends in antimicrobial use in food animalsen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
cg.subject.ilriAGRI-HEALTHen_US
cg.subject.ilriFOOD SAFETYen_US
cg.subject.ilriHEALTHen_US
cg.subject.ilriLIVESTOCKen_US
cg.identifier.statusOpen Accessen_US
cg.contributor.affiliationPrinceton University
cg.contributor.affiliationCenter for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy
cg.contributor.affiliationUniversité Libre de Bruxelles
cg.contributor.affiliationFonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Belgium
cg.contributor.affiliationPrinceton Environmental Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationNational Institutes of Health
cg.contributor.affiliationBeijer Institute of Ecological Economics
cg.contributor.affiliationResources for the Future
cg.contributor.affiliationInternational Livestock Research Institute
cg.contributor.affiliationPublic Health Foundation of India
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1503141112en_US
cg.isijournalISI Journalen_US


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