Jamaica: assessing the impact of climate change on cocoa and tomato

Abstract

This policy brief explores the consequences of climate change on cocoa and tomato production in Jamaica. The report describes work carried out by CIAT in partnership with the University of the West Indies (UWI), which used climate predictions and crop suitability models to assess the likely impact of climate change on crops grown in Jamaica. Results from the study indicate that there will be a reduction in the area of land suitable for growing tomato (and several other annual crops), as the region’s climate gets progressively warmer. The largest reductions in suitability are expected in low-lying areas, particularly along Jamaica’s southern coast. However, in the case of cocoa, the impacts are less significant, suggesting its cultivation could be expanded as a response strategy to the projected changes in climate. Additionally, it was found that the higher areas of the island would gradually gain suitability for both tomato and cocoa over time. Key policy recommendations are provided.