How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions

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cg.coverage.countryAustralia
cg.coverage.iso3166-alpha2AU
cg.coverage.regionNorthern America
cg.coverage.regionAustralia and New Zealand
cg.creator.identifierEvan Girvetz: 0000-0002-1062-9764
cg.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00326.1
cg.isijournalISI Journal
cg.issn0894-8755
cg.issue12
cg.journalJournal of Climate
cg.reviewStatusPeer Review
cg.subject.ciatCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
cg.volume28
dc.contributor.authorUmmenhofer, Caroline C.
dc.contributor.authorXu, Hong
dc.contributor.authorTwine, Tracy E
dc.contributor.authorGirvetz, Evan Hartunian
dc.contributor.authorMcCarthy, Heather R
dc.contributor.authorChhetri, Netra
dc.contributor.authorNicholas, Kimberly A.
dc.date.accessioned2015-11-11T19:35:02Zen
dc.date.available2015-11-11T19:35:02Zen
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/68908
dc.titleHow climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regionsen
dcterms.abstractDownscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth.While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.en
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
dcterms.available2015-06-11
dcterms.bibliographicCitationUmmenhofer, Caroline C.; Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan H.; McCarthy, Heather R.; Chhetri, Netra; Nicholas, Kimberly A.. 2015. How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions . Journal of Climate 28 (1): 4653-4687.en
dcterms.extentp. 4653-4687
dcterms.issued2015-06-15
dcterms.languageen
dcterms.licenseCopyrighted; all rights reserved
dcterms.publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
dcterms.subjectclimate changeen
dcterms.subjectsimulation modelsen
dcterms.subjectcrop yielden
dcterms.subjectagroecosystemsen
dcterms.subjectcambio climáticoen
dcterms.subjectmodelos de simulaciónen
dcterms.subjectrendimiento de cultivosen
dcterms.subjectagroecosistemasen
dcterms.subjectaustraliaen
dcterms.subjectnorth americaen
dcterms.typeJournal Article

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