Agenda Item 4 For Approval Issued: 29 May 2024 20th CGIAR System Council meeting SC20-04a 12-13 June 2024, Brasilia, Brazil Cover Page CGIAR 2025-30 Portfolio Narrative Purpose This document sets out the CGIAR 2025-30 Portfolio Narrative, which provides a high-level overview of the proposed Portfolio along with brief descriptions of its nine ‘Programs’, three ‘Accelerators’, as well as CGIAR’s work on Genebanks. Endorsement of the System Board At its 29th meeting on 11-12 May 2024, the System Board reviewed the draft CGIAR 2025-30 Portfolio Narrative. At the conclusion of its deliberations, pursuant to the System Board’s role set out in Article 8 kk) of the Charter of the CGIAR System Organization1, the System Board endorsed the document. Action Requested The System Council is requested to: • Review the CGIAR 2025-30 Portfolio Narrative alongside advice from the Independent Science for Development Council (document SC20-04b); and if thought appropriate; • Approve the CGIAR 2025-30 Portfolio Narrative as the set of strategic priorities for CGIAR Research and Innovation, pursuant to Article 6.1 a) iii. of the CGIAR System Framework; and • Provide guidance to inform the next phase of design of the Portfolio. Subject to the System Council’s approval to proceed, and taking into account the ISDC’s recommendations, as well as guidance from the System Board and System Council, full Program and Accelerator design documents, and an updated Portfolio-level narrative will be developed in line with the timeline set out in Section 6 of this document. Document category: Working document of the System Council. There is no restriction on the circulation of this document Presented by: Ismahane Elouafi, CGIAR Executive Managing Director 1 The Charter at Article 8.1 kk) provides that the System Board shall “provide recommendations to the System Council on strategic action to ensure results and continued relevancy of agricultural research for development”. 29 May 2024 we can With CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025–2030 29 May 2024 Table of contents PREAMBLE: TRANSFORMING FOOD, LAND, AND WATER SYSTEMS TO 2050 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 SECTION I: PORTFOLIO-LEVEL NARRATIVE 7 1. Background on the Portfolio design 7 2. Addressing challenges and seizing opportunities 7 2.1 Key challenges and megatrends 7 2.2 CGIAR’s Strategy to 2030 10 2.3 Responding to demand 10 2.4 Leveraging CGIAR’s track record of impact for higher ambition 11 2.5 Priority-setting within the Portfolio 13 3. Harnessing CGIAR’s comparative advantage 13 3.1 Applying the ISDC framework to analyze comparative advantage 13 3.2 CGIAR’s roles alongside partners 17 4. A restructured Portfolio 18 4.1 Moving to a new structure of Programs, Accelerators, and Assets 18 4.2 Improved Portfolio coherence supporting CGIAR’s theory of change 21 4.2.1 CGIAR’s theory of change 21 4.2.2 How the Programs, Accelerators, and Assets collectively deliver on CGIAR’s theory of change 23 4.3 Assets and Knowledge 24 4.4 Continued strengthening of gender and social inclusion research 24 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025 –2030 5. Operationalizing the new Portfolio 25 5.1 Research delivery: Balancing continuity and change 25 5.2 Toward greater transparency, complementarity, and accountability across all sources of funding 25 5.3 A collaborative management structure 25 5.4 The transition to 2025: Identifying, mitigating, and managing risks 26 6. Next steps 27 SECTION II: DESCRIPTIONS OF PORTFOLIO COMPONENTS 29 Enhancing productivity and resilience through genetic innovation: Science Program on Breeding for Tomorrow 29 Realizing productivity, resilience, and sustainability at scale through integrated agronomy, plant health, and farming system solutions: Science Program on Sustainable Farming 31 Animal and aquatic food systems for nutrition and health: Science Program on Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods 33 Multifunctional landscapes for sustainable food systems, people, and environment: Science Program on Multifunctional Landscapes 35 Delivering sustainable diets for nutrition and health – an agenda for evidence-informed transformation: Science Program on Better Nutrition 37 Climate actions for resilient food, land, and water systems: Science Program on Climate Action 39 Innovative institutions and policies for food, land, and water systems transformation: Science Program on Policy Innovation 41 Securing future foods for all: Science Program on Food Frontiers and Security 43 Empowering regions and countries to scale demand-driven, evidence-based, and impactful agri-food systems solutions: Program on Scaling for Impact 45 Accelerator on Gender Equality and Inclusion 47 Accelerator on Shared Capacity 49 Accelerating equitable transformation of food, land, and water systems through digital innovations, data-driven insights, and impactful ventures: Accelerator on Digital Transformation 51 Conserving, exchanging, and using plant diversity: Genebanks 53 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025 –2030 The work of the Alliance’s Crops for Nutrition and Health research area. Credit: Neil Palmer / CIAT CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 PREAMBLE: TRANSFORMING FOOD, LAND, AND WATER SYSTEMS TO 2050 As reflected in an array of target-setting exercises, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, and the Kunming- Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the world aims for multiple, major transformations by 2050 or sooner, including: • greatly improved living standards and resilience of livelihoods; • greatly improved nutrition, diets, and health; • food systems as engines of inclusion; • net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (potentially implying net negative agriculture, forestry, and other land use emissions); and • halting human-induced loss of known threatened species and greatly improving general environmental conditions. Food, land, and water systems lie at the heart of the world’s ability to simultaneously achieve these aspirations in the context of a rapidly warming planet. The 2025—30 research and innovation Portfolio outlined in this document describes CGIAR’s planned contributions to meeting these ‘great expectations’. In contemplating this daunting task, it is helpful to look back at the past 30 years. Looking back: 1990 to 2020 In 1990, almost 40% of the world’s population was characterized as absolutely poor. Among the multiple factors that have enabled a dramatic reduction of poverty from 1990 to present (to about 8%), the production, processing, and distribution of significantly greater volumes of food has been essential (Table A). At the global level, production increased by around two thirds between 1990 and 2020, with consumption growing substantially in all regions of the world. Table A. Growth rates (%) in food consumption and demand as proxied by dietary energy IFPRI IMPACT Model USDA/ERS FARMS Model Region 1990-2020 2020-2050 1990-2020 2020-2050 China 48.8 2.7 -2.8 East and Southeast Asia excluding China 39.3 25.7 11.3 Latin America and Caribbean 53.1 23.9 23.0 Middle East and North Africa 72.4 46.8 38.0 OECD (1990) 50.5 15.0 8.0 South Asia 80.2 48.5 34.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 137.6 90.1 105.1 World 70.7 31.7 62.0 26.6 Sources: IFPRI calculations 2023; USDA estimates from Sands et al 2023 2 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 Note: TFP equals the difference between growth in aggregate output and growth in aggregate input. Source: USDA TFP database These large increases in global food production can be attributed to two sources: (1) greater use of aggregate inputs (land, labor, intermediate inputs, machines, etc.) and (2) process improvements (producing more with the same volume of aggregate inputs), also called total factor productivity (TFP) (Figure A). The relative importance of these two factors depends on countries’ income levels. In low-income countries, about two thirds of production growth is attributable to growth in the use of aggregate inputs, while about one third of production growth is attributable to TFP. In lower middle-income countries, these proportions are reversed. In upper middle-income countries, nearly all production growth is attributable to TFP. In high-income countries, TFP growth outweighed the decline in aggregate input use. Overall, TFP has been important in all contexts. In most instances, more than one third of TFP growth results from research and development (R&D). The role of public research stands out, particularly in lower-income contexts. As highlighted by several rigorous independent studies, CGIAR – with a budget roughly comparable to that of a single research university in a high-income country – has significantly contributed to the systemic improvements that underlie the reductions in global poverty from 1990 to 2020 through its research on genetics, agronomy, policies, and institutions, among others. Looking forward: 2020-2050 Table A reveals two important differences between the past 30 years and the next 30 years. First, at a global level, the incremental food production task for the next 30 years is markedly smaller than in the previous 30 years. Second, this task is far more geographically concentrated. The global growth in food demand/supply from 2020-2050 projected by the two methods shown in Table A (32% for IMPACT and 26% for FARMS) is less than half of the corresponding growth figures for the period 1990 to 2020. This much smaller global production task is explained by much slower (in some cases negative) rates of population growth in most regions and a slowdown in the growth rate of food consumption per person. For example, in China, the average of the two projections shown in Table A equates to zero production growth from 2020 to 2050. Figure A. Aggregate outputs, inputs, and GHG emissions by country income level CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 3 These simple observations have substantial implications. There are three regions where the production task remains salient: Sub- Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia. In terms of meeting the ‘great expectations’ of food, land, and water systems, it is highly desirable for Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (given their larger sizes and production potentials) to meet their incremental food demands mostly through domestic production, for three reasons. First, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are home to most of the world’s poor, with the majority of these residing in rural areas and depending on the food sector for their livelihoods. Today, food, land, and water systems remain powerful levers for reducing poverty, improving livelihoods, and addressing inequalities. Second, supplying healthy diets, a key 21st century objective, will require rapid growth in production of vegetables, fruits, and animal source foods. Compared with staple grain crops (e.g., rice, wheat, and maize), these components of a healthy diet are typically more difficult to transport over long distances, implying a greater reliance on local production. Lastly, because global food, land, and water systems are interlinked via trade, aggregate domestic production growth that is roughly sufficient to cover demand in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will lighten the incremental production push required in other parts of the world. For example, the ability of production systems in Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia to successfully meet their incremental production tasks will result in reduced pressure to convert the Amazon rainforest to food production areas over the next 30 years. More generally, success in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will allow the ingenuity of farmers, researchers, and other food, land, and water system actors in other regions to be directed towards meeting the full array of the ‘great expectations’. In sum, there is a compelling logic for a major push in food, land, and water systems-related research, notably in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia where complex economic, social, and environmental challenges are accompanied by a large incremental production task. Although the production task is substantially larger in Sub-Saharan Africa than in South Asia, the production task in South Asia relies on a tightly constrained and frequently distressed natural resource base. Hence, it is difficult to assess which of these two regions faces the greater challenge. The CGIAR Portfolio As in 1990—2020, research and innovations will play a critical role in meeting the world’s ‘great expectations’ from 2020 to 2050. CGIAR’s 2025—30 research and innovation Portfolio draws on CGIAR’s global presence, diverse capabilities, and extensive partnerships to address the biggest global challenges of our time. Informed by emerging megatrends, responding to partner demand, and grounded in CGIAR’s comparative advantage, the Portfolio will deploy CGIAR science and innovations to meet the diverse needs and opportunities of different regions. It will focus on the continued, critical need to close production gaps in the face of a broader range of interconnected climate, environmental, social, and geopolitical pressures in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia. In other regions, the Portfolio will further sharpen CGIAR’s focus and contributions beyond incremental production increases while leveraging its networks to accelerate South—South learning and exchange. CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025 –20304 Climate-Smart Village in Ilagan, Isabela, Philippines. Credit: CIAT / Miguel Mamon CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025 –2030 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document sets out a high-level overview of CGIAR’s proposed 2025—30 research and innovation Portfolio for review and feedback by the Independent Science for Development Council, the CGIAR System Board, and the CGIAR System Council. The document describes the key features of the Portfolio as a whole and provides brief descriptions of its nine ‘Programs’, three ‘Accelerators’, as well as CGIAR’s work on Genebanks and Knowledge (Box 1). Science Programs: • Breeding for Tomorrow • Sustainable Farming • Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods • Multifunctional Landscapes • Better Nutrition • Climate Action • Policy Innovation • Food Frontiers and Security Scaling Program: • Scaling for Impact Accelerators: • Gender Equality and Inclusion • Shared Capacity • Digital Transformation Assets: Genebanks and Knowledge Box 1. CGIAR’s 2025—30 research and innovation Portfolio The proposed Portfolio aims to raise the ambition for CGIAR science and innovations by bringing together and leveraging all of CGIAR’s work, across all Centers and all sources and types of funding, in response to the most pressing global challenges. With a small number of entry points, the Portfolio aims to make CGIAR’s offer easier to understand, communicate, engage with, and fund. The Portfolio directly addresses the most significant global challenges across climate change; gender and social inequalities; poor-quality diets; rural poverty; environmental degradation; as well as fragility, conflicts, and violence. In doing so, it considers the ways in which those challenges are affected by key megatrends, such as demographic change, shifting consumption patterns, geopolitical instability, and emerging technologies. Through a series of targeted ‘Listening Sessions’ and consistent with broader elements of CGIAR’s revised Engagement Framework for Partnerships and Advocacy, the process to design the 2025—30 Portfolio aims to ensure that CGIAR’s research and innovation offer is firmly grounded in partner and stakeholder priorities and interests at the local, national, regional, and global levels. In addition to global challenges, megatrends, and partner demand; the new Portfolio will build on a careful analysis of CGIAR’s comparative advantage in relation to potential, alternative service providers; and it will be informed by a structured priority-setting process that will include an assessment of potential positive and negative impacts and trade-offs across CGIAR’s five Impact Areas. The proposed Portfolio builds on and carries forward a significant share of the work and partnerships of CGIAR’s current, 2022—24 Portfolio of Research Initiatives while creating space for new and emerging opportunities. Key functions of the current Impact Area Platforms will be integrated into the new Portfolio, with certain Programs and Accelerators playing dedicated roles as anchors to drive cohesion and learning in specific Impact Areas, e.g. Nutrition and Diets, Climate, and Gender and Social Inclusion. The Programs, Accelerators, and Assets and Knowledge are designed to collectively deliver against a coherent CGIAR theory of change. Accordingly, all components of the Portfolio are deeply interdependent; with each Program and Accelerator providing and benefiting from inputs, guidance, tools, and networks to and from other programs. The Programs and Accelerators are designed for six years from 2025 through 2030, with a robust, mid-term review moment at the end of 2027 to ensure that the Portfolio as a whole and all its components remain fit for purpose and appropriately prioritized. The 2025—30 Portfolio is designed to encompass all sources and types of funding towards CGIAR research and innovations: CGIAR Trust Fund Window 1 as well as Window 3 and bilateral funding. The Programs and Accelerators will be funded through combinations of these different types of funding, with each governed and managed in accordance with applicable rules and agreements. Accordingly, the Programs and Accelerators aim to provide frameworks for greater complementarity and synergy across different sources and types of funding, while enhancing transparency and accountability in how they are used and the results they contribute to. Drawing lessons from past cycles of CGIAR research, the 2025—30 Portfolio will be managed through a collaborative arrangement that brings together and draws on the best capabilities from across Centers and partners. For each Program and Accelerator, a cross- Center structure will drive effective sharing of data and information, coordination, collaboration, and alignment towards intended research outputs, outcomes, and impacts. A CGIAR Chief Scientist reporting to the Executive Managing Director will oversee the Portfolio, working in close collaboration with all Centers. For each Program and Accelerator, a leader or coordinator reporting to the Chief Scientist will drive strong collaboration and coordination on behalf of all partners involved. Continuity of science and partnerships is a key priority as CGIAR transitions from the current, 2022—24 Portfolio to the Programs and Accelerators. Work is underway to set out a carefully managed, phased transition process that aims to mitigate the risk of disruption to CGIAR research and innovations, partnerships, staff, and funding. 6 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 SECTION I: PORTFOLIO-LEVEL NARRATIVE 1. Background on the Portfolio design This document provides a high-level overview of the proposed 2025–2030 CGIAR Portfolio for review and feedback from the Independent Science for Development Council (ISDC), the System Board, and the System Council before the development of the more in-depth contents of the Portfolio for approval by the end of 2024. The process to develop the next Portfolio was launched in mid-2023. An overview of the first version of this next Portfolio (2025–2027 Portfolio referred to as “P25”) was circulated for stakeholder review on 15 December 2023. Feedback received from ISDC, the System Board, the System Council, and other stakeholders on this document was carefully analyzed and incorporated into the renewed thinking on the next Portfolio initiated by CGIAR’s new leadership in January 2024. On 21–22 January 2024, CGIAR’s Executive Managing Director convened a Portfolio Retreat in Rome with a view to raising the ambition for CGIAR research and innovations. At the retreat, the participants – including Directors General and science leadership from all CGIAR Centers – agreed to launch a process to develop a more ambitious 2025–2030 Portfolio that responds to the most important and pressing global challenges and brings together all of CGIAR’s work in a coherent way through a small number of Programs and Accelerators that span all sources of funding. Following the Portfolio Retreat, writing teams were formed to design the nine Programs and three Accelerators. These writing teams bring together a diverse and representative group of more than 150 scientists from all CGIAR Centers and the World Vegetable Center, and seek inputs from beyond their membership, including CGIAR Science Leaders and key regional and national stakeholders, to allow the full depth and breadth of CGIAR’s capabilities across Centers and partners to be harnessed to co-create the next Portfolio. Each writing team is convened by a convenor and co-convenor, who ensure that the teams deliver against guidelines and schedules. A workshop for convenors and co-convenors took place in Nairobi on 18–20 March 2024, to advance a common understanding of the Programs and Accelerators, outline a process for their development, and provide guidance to the writing teams on the development of the May and September versions of the Portfolio design documents. With the evolution of the Portfolio from P25 to the current, more ambitious version based on Programs and Accelerators, some of the milestones initially envisaged for January-May 2025 have been postponed (e.g., fully designed documents initially planned for submission in June are now to be submitted in September). This document includes a brief (~2 pages) description of each Program and Accelerator. In parallel to these developments, CGIAR Listening Sessions were implemented in 25 countries in the first quarter of 2024 to better understand the demands for CGIAR research and innovations and collect suggestions from in-country partners on improving partnership modalities. This document contains key highlights from these sessions. Finally, the preliminary findings of the ongoing Independent Advisory and Evaluation Services (IAES)-commissioned evaluation of Science Groups have been made available to the Program and Accelerator writing teams. Several have already been taken into account in this document. 2. Addressing challenges and seizing opportunities 2.1 Key challenges and megatrends The new Portfolio directly addresses major global challenges threatening the sustainability of food, land, and water systems and their transformation for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): • Climate change affects food security in many ways, including through extreme events, such as acute drought, high temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO2 levels, water scarcity, coastal inundation, marginalization of vulnerable people, and deep uncertainty about future risks. It is a risk multiplier, exacerbating existing challenges by decreasing the productivity and increasing the variability of agricultural production, inducing and aggravating the consequences of ecosystem breakdown and loss of ecosystem services (e.g., from unsustainable natural resource management practices), and reinforcing inequalities, all of which increase vulnerability and poverty. • Gender and social inequalities are deeply entrenched within global and local agri-food systems. Women often have less control of and access to land, water, and other resources than men, and are less likely to claim and derive benefits from agriculture. Youth often find livelihood opportunities in food systems and agriculture to be unremunerative and unappealing. Moreover, the loss of local knowledge and local agricultural biodiversity erodes the opportunity to find local solutions to challenges such as climate change, malnutrition, inequities, and income generation. • Poor-quality diets are a leading cause of all forms of malnutrition, along with poverty, gender and social inequalities, and inadequate water quality and sanitation. Malnutrition contributes to premature death and illnesses, with consequences for individuals, societies, and nations. Native potatoes in Peru. Credit: Nani Vela CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 7 For three billion people, mostly in low- and middle-income countries, healthy diets are unaffordable and therefore inaccessible. Moreover, after years of global progress, food insecurity has risen in recent years, with rates in 2022 higher than in pre-COVID years. • Rural poverty rates in low- and middle-income countries remain high due to low productivity, income inequality, and high vulnerability of smallholder farming; the failure of agri- food systems to provide decent livelihoods; and the lag in skill development in many countries. Uneven economic growth in low- and middle-income countries hampers improvements in the income of rapidly growing populations. • Agriculture’s environmental footprint remains large, caused by unsustainable natural resource management practices and food loss and waste, among others. The negative environmental impacts of agriculture involve land degradation, biodiversity loss, the depletion and pollution of water resources, the overexploitation of aquifers, off-site pollution, fish stock depletion, and GHG emissions. Each of the previous challenges is most acute in areas beset by fragility, conflict, and/or violence, where up to two-thirds of the world’s extreme poor live. Violent conflict has spiked since 2010 and efforts to transform food, land, and water systems among the poorest and most vulnerable people require more research on and in these areas. As noted in CGIAR’s 2030 Research and Innovation Strategy, “under resource scarcity and global connectivity, the challenges of food and nutrition insecurity, poverty, gender inequality and social exclusion, climate change, and environmental degradation are simply not separable.” These challenges intersect in complex ways, which vary by country and region. The ISDC study on megatrends sheds light on how specific trends will affect these challenges and on how CGIAR should respond to them (see Table 1). Systems approaches are required to understand trade-offs and synergies between challenges/ megatrends and to design science- and evidence-based responses. The full Program and Accelerator design documents (to be submitted in September 2024) will include details on how each of them is strategically placed and offers a comparative advantage to address some of these challenges and trends. The ISDC study on megatrends further recommends • The following strategic shifts in the portfolio: – Increasing food diversity and quality – Strengthening governance of agri-food value chains – Building resilience and fostering inclusion among farmers – Focusing on the inclusion of youth – Prioritizing technology and education in agri-food system adaptation efforts – Applying climate learning from other sectors – Better managing competing demands for water across all sectors of our economies. • And the following two process adjustments: – Adopting and using megatrends, foresight, and trade-off frameworks – Ensuring specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound collective global targets. Farmer of the Gezira Irrigation Scheme, Sudan. Credit: Abby Waldorf / WLE 8 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 https://iaes.cgiar.org/isdc/megatrends/ Table 1. ISDC’s changing Megatrends (MTs) affecting agri-food systems (ISDC, Responding to Emerging Megatrends, 2023) MT 1 Demographic trends The four key demographic megatrends (population growth, aging, migration, and urbanization) present interconnected socioeconomic challenges for agri-food systems globally, with rapid population growth in the Global South raising concerns about employment opportunities. This is a particular concern for youth, while urbanization poses additional challenges, such as unclear gender dynamics in migration and urbanization’s significant contribution to climate change. MT 2 Changing consumption patterns The affordability of healthy diets is hindered by the proliferation of cheaper unhealthy foods, particularly ultra-processed options, contributing to malnutrition and an obesity epidemic. Healthy diets are unattainable for more than 3.1 billion people globally and this disproportionately affects Indigenous Peoples. MT 3 Market concentration in the agri-food system Increased concentration and consolidation along the agri-food value chain raise concerns about the implications for various actors, including marginalized workers. Research is needed to fully understand the complex effects of concentration on food security, nutrition, and health, particularly among vulnerable populations. MT 4 Climate change Climate change presents one of the greatest global challenges of the century, intensifying extreme weather events and posing significant risks to agriculture, ecosystems, human livelihoods, and biodiversity, with disproportionate impacts on women, children, and marginalized and Indigenous Peoples. MT 5 Environmental degradation The main driver of environmental degradation stems from land conversion for agriculture and resource extraction, agrobiodiversity loss remains a pressing concern, and a comprehensive understanding of the effects of market concentration on key agricultural resources is lacking, alongside increasing pressures on freshwater ecosystems due to anthropological activities and climate change. MT 6 Shifting global health challenges Infectious and noncommunicable diseases are driven by changing demographic trends, environmental degradation, land-use change, increased global connectivity, conflicts, climate change, pollution, technological advances, and repeated pathogen emergence from animal reservoirs. With the COVID-19 pandemic accentuating multidimensional inequalities and triggering a global economic crisis, disadvantaged groups have been disproportionally affected, especially in low- and middle-income countries. MT 7 Geopolitical instability The world faces a surge in violent conflicts, with about 70% of the chronically food-insecure residing in five conflict-affected countries by 2022. This exacerbates food insecurity and malnutrition, while the interconnection between climate change, ecological threats, migration, and conflict amplifies geopolitical tensions and inequalities, posing risks to food security and escalating gendered vulnerabilities. These include violence against women and children and displacement of Indigenous Peoples due to discriminatory policies and armed conflict. MT 8 Growing inequalities Persistent and expansive multidimensional inequalities, particularly affecting women, might increase further due to the slow and unequal recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Inequality is compounded by climate change, heightened conflict levels, and increased food prices, posing significant challenges for low- and middle-income countries with limited financial resources. These countries and their citizens experience compounded vulnerability despite their minimal contribution to climate change. MT 9 Frontier technology and innovation New technologies and innovations, including but not limited to digital technologies, artificial intelligence, solar photovoltaics, genome editing, and nanotechnology, hold transformative potential for agri-food systems. However, ensuring inclusive access to and investment in these opportunities in low- and middle- income countries is crucial to prevent exacerbating inequalities, particularly among marginalized groups such as women, youth, and ethnic minorities. Challenges include low digital literacy, gender gaps, limited access to digital connectivity, and high costs of devices and services. CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 9 2.2 CGIAR’s Strategy to 2030 CGIAR’s 2030 Research and Innovation Strategy sets out a 10-year vision of “a world with sustainable and resilient food, land, and water systems that deliver diverse, healthy, safe, sufficient, and affordable diets, and ensure improved livelihoods and greater social equality, within planetary and regional environmental boundaries.” The Strategy defines CGIAR’s mission as follows: “to deliver science and innovation that advance the positive transformation of food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis.” The transformations that CGIAR aims to contribute to alongside partners are captured in CGIAR’s five Impact Areas and eleven Impact Area targets. The Impact Areas – climate change adaptation and mitigation; environmental health and biodiversity; nutrition, food security, and health; gender equality, youth, and social inclusion; and poverty reduction, jobs, and livelihoods – and their targets closely align with the SDGs. They reflect areas in which CGIAR has demonstrated a strong capability to deliver through integrated systems approaches. CGIAR’s key impact pathways outlined in the 2030 Strategy remain relevant and include the development and scaling of science- and evidence-based innovations; targeted capacity development; and advice on policy and investments in food, land, and water systems. Overall, the 2030 Strategy remains relevant and appropriate, and the proposed 2025–2030 Portfolio is intended to accelerate and strengthen the implementation of that Strategy – not replace it. Through the 2022–2024 Portfolio of Research Initiatives and Impact Area Platforms, the first years of implementation of the 2030 Strategy have seen unprecedented collaboration and integration across Centers and disciplines; a consistent focus on multiple benefits across the five Impact Areas; and a renewed emphasis on research-into-use. Areas to strengthen include, inter alia, stakeholder engagement in Portfolio design, decreasing the number of Portfolio entry points and the resulting complexity and transaction costs, and providing for greater integration and complementarity across pooled and bilateral funding. Over the next six years, in line with the 2030 Strategy’s ways of working, and to raise CGIAR’s ambition and become even more relevant in addressing critical global challenges and megatrends, the new 2025–2030 Portfolio will strengthen efforts to (1) embrace a systems transformation approach to deliver multiple benefits; (2) forge ambitious alliances for change; (3) position regions, countries, and landscapes as foci for partnerships and impacts; (4) consider multiple transformation pathways to respond to different contexts; (5) put greater emphasis on risk management and resilience; (6) harness innovative finance to spur investment in scaling innovations; and (7) integrate digital methods and tools to support decision making. Building on and complementing the 2030 Strategy in an effort to clearly capture CGIAR’s contribution to the world, the participants in the January 2024 CGIAR Portfolio Retreat aligned on a CGIAR Value Proposition (see Box 2). 2.3 Responding to demand The System Council, at its 19th meeting, requested that “the Portfolio […] be built through a transparent, inclusive co-creation process, and supported by country and regional engagement and strengthened partnerships.” To achieve this, the proposed 2025– 2030 Portfolio leverages the frameworks, principles, approaches, tools, and efforts developed and carried out in recent years to ensure that CGIAR’s research and innovation offer is grounded in partner and stakeholder priorities and interests locally, nationally, regionally, and globally. The Portfolio design process draws on lessons from and feedback on the design and implementation of the 2022–2024 Research Initiatives and Impact Area Platforms. Specifically, stakeholders have requested that CGIAR engage in an inclusive and open listening posture to collaboratively design and implement its programs. In response, starting in 2022, CGIAR introduced Portfolio Dialogues and set up various partnership agreements to help align the current Portfolio more closely with country and partner needs. Beyond programmatic alignment, in its January 2023 report, the High-Level Advisory Panel to the CGIAR System Board on improving strategic engagement with partners called for CGIAR to “develop and implement a visible process for inclusive agenda-setting, co- design, and co-ownership of all aspects of One CGIAR efforts.” CGIAR has since updated its Engagement Framework for Partnership and Advocacy and begun developing a Partnership Strategy, as well as continued to strengthen its partner and stakeholder engagement through a network of Country Convenors, a partnership intelligence function, and a policy advocacy function that builds on global and regional advocacy platforms for collective action. Thus, the design of the 2025–2030 Portfolio represents a critical opportunity for CGIAR to demonstrate its commitment to deeper engagement as well as inclusive and demand-driven research and innovations. To achieve this, a series of targeted Listening Sessions was launched in January 2024 to help identify and understand partner needs and thereby shape the evolution of CGIAR’s research and innovation offer. To date, Listening Sessions have been held in 25 priority countries, along with a regional pilot in East Africa. Further information on the objectives and achievements of the Listening Sessions can be found in Box 3. The writing teams have used the initial outputs of the Listening Sessions in their high-level descriptions of the Programs, Accelerators, and Genebanks (see Section II). In addition, the writing teams will engage with partners throughout the Portfolio design process. This engagement will build on previous efforts under the 2022–2024 Portfolio of Initiatives and Platforms as well as on Centers’ bilateral projects, with a view to ensuring continuity of ongoing dialogues and key partnerships. Looking forward, the implementation of the 2025–2030 Portfolio will be guided by regular and scientifically structured interactions with CGIAR’s partners and stakeholders at all levels, with results regularly communicated across the Programs and Accelerators to ensure continuous adaptation in response to evolving demands. The Scaling Program includes regular regional- and national-level stakeholder engagement as one of its core functions, building on the design lessons from the Listening Sessions (see Section II).Championing equitable access to food and balanced nutrition for all people while enhancing ecosystem services and biodiversity, through increasing the sustainability of agriculture and of food, land, and water systems in low- and middle-income countries, catalyzing global networks for science and innovation, capitalizing on local knowledge and diversity, and influencing decision makers. We operate within a global public goods framework and measure our impact through contributions to nutrition and food security, poverty reduction, gender equality and social inclusion, climate adaptation and mitigation, and environmental health and biodiversity. Box 2. CGIAR’s Value Proposition 10 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 https://www.cgiar.org/how-we-work/strategy/ https://storage.googleapis.com/cgiarorg/2023/01/Final-HLAP-Report-to-CGIAR-System-Board.pdf Objectives • Shape the CGIAR 2025–2030 Portfolio and research-for- development agenda • Deepen future collaboration for transformative partnerships • Improve CGIAR engagement models at country, regional, and global levels Approach • In each country, the CGIAR Country Convenor and a small multi-Center team led a one-week process with three to five small segmented groups of critical stakeholders. • The sessions focused on (1) how CGIAR can contribute to greater impact and (2) how to improve CGIAR’s partnership modalities. • Each set of Listening Sessions built on previous in-country stakeholder engagement outcomes. Achievements and deliverables as of April 2024 • Guidelines, methods, and tools for holding Listening Sessions co-developed, tested, improved, and shared across CGIAR • Listening Sessions completed in 25 countries (17 countries with host country agreements with CGIAR and/or large CGIAR research-for-development footprint, and 8 additional countries) • 20 output reports shared with stakeholders, writing teams, and CGIAR staff. Initial results on how CGIAR can contribute to greater impact • Continued focus on food security and nutrition in vulnerable countries • Scientific capacity sharing • Co-developing breeding resources as equal partners • Co-leading and convening policy advocacy platforms (using CGIAR’s soft power) • Open access to consolidated databases, dataset analysis, infrastructure, and knowledge management • Landscape approach to in-country agricultural research-for- development and implementation • Building expertise in emerging areas, with several specific areas proposed. Initial results on how to improve CGIAR’s partnership modalities • Single CGIAR point of contact for partners in a country • Institutionalizing the Listening Sessions model (periodic meetings with in-country governance actors) • Equal recognition of partners in scientific outputs • Enhanced transparency in project partnership processes (joint planning and co-creation, information sharing platform, transparent bidding for partner opportunities…). Box 3. Objectives and achievements of the Listening Sessions 2.4 Leveraging CGIAR’s track record of impact for higher ambition The proposed 2025–2030 Portfolio builds on a well-documented track record of impact. Large impacts from CGIAR’s breeding research have been well demonstrated over the years (Fuglie and Echeverria 2024 being the latest in a line of studies). In addition, over the past decade, evidence of CGIAR’s broader contributions along its three main impact pathways has been documented in areas such as food and nutrition, environment, climate change mitigation and adaptation, gender equality, and poverty reduction (see for example CGIAR contributions to the 2022 System-Level Outcome Targets) and through the nearly 1,400 policy, innovation, and capacity outcomes reported from 2017 to 20231 (see 2017–2021 and 2022–2023 CGIAR Results Dashboards). These outcomes have occurred in all regions where CGIAR works (East and Southern Africa; West and Central Africa; Central and West Asia, and North Africa; Southeast Asia and the Pacific; South Asia; and Latin America and the Caribbean), showing that CGIAR is able to meet demand and facilitate use of its research in a wide range of contexts. CGIAR has continued to deliver effective and impactful research and innovations while steadily growing the scope of its work in response to increasingly complex and interconnected global challenges. Building on this experience, CGIAR is well placed to raise its ambition and fully deliver on its 2030 Strategy through • Greater co-location of the thematic components of the Portfolio to deliver on the most significant global challenges 1 The average of about 200 outcomes per year has been maintained by the initiatives, despite reporting on only the pooled funded portion of the Portfolio. across pooled and bilateral funding sources, and stronger coordination and integration of co-located components; • Improved alignment with national priorities, strategies, and commitments; • Deepened high-leverage partnerships, including with international financial institutions, expanded partnerships in sectors beyond agriculture to drive transformation, more partnerships with the private sector, and further engagement with multistakeholder platforms; • Stronger alignment and coherence across scales (e.g., from global to regional to national), with a view to reaching impact at scale; and • More coherent and collaborative management across Programs, Accelerators, and Centers – for example, to bring together scientists working on similar research challenges to foster the development and use of cutting-edge science that will generate achievements of higher value. With these improvements, CGIAR will be able to generate more complementary, impactful research that influences decisions from global to local, and collectively drive food, land, and water systems transformations throughout low- and middle-income countries. Locally and nationally, CGIAR supports nationally determined priorities for food, land, biodiversity, and water systems transformation in priority low- and middle-income countries, and strengthens targeted capabilities across a range of disciplines, sectors, and countries to enhance country-led research and stimulate transformative change at scale in food, land, and water systems. CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 11 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X23003418 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X23003418 https://cgspace.cgiar.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/d8d47797-850b-481d-bbed-4afe084d9b59/content Examples of such work include the following: • Assist countries in creating decent jobs in food, land, and water systems; • Use systems-oriented, integrated approaches to develop innovations that enable countries to meet their commitments in the agricultural, environmental, and food sectors (e.g., develop NDCs to reduce GHG emissions, plans to achieve land degradation neutrality, National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans, and Global Biodiversity Framework targets as part of coherent agri-food systems transformation pathways); • Co-create solutions in the use of local diversity, seed and market systems, food value chains, and food environments that decrease the costs of and increase access to sustainable healthy diets; • Develop landscape approaches that enrich the natural resource base, decrease the environmental footprint and inequalities in agriculture, and generate sustainable livelihoods; • Support inclusive policy processes and propose enabling policy options that foster synergies between sectors and administrative levels in meeting multiple objectives and mitigating trade-offs; • Strengthen the capacity of institutions that formulate and execute plans and policies related to food, land, and water systems transformation (including national agricultural research institutes, international financial institutions, and other key organizations part of agricultural innovation systems or the environmental and food sectors) in using methods, tools, and information for them to be better equipped to meet their own analytical demands and needs. Regionally, CGIAR supports regional cooperation strategies and strengthens regional research networks and other partnerships to develop, disseminate, and use research results. Examples of such work include the following: • Conduct regular dialogues with regional partners to identify priorities for collaborative research and scaling activities; • Engage with regional research networks to strengthen CGIAR research and facilitate the adaptation of results developed elsewhere in a region where demand exists; • Provide technical support toward regional policy organizations and networks’ planning and cooperation objectives (e.g., South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, Economic Community of West African States, African Group of Negotiators Expert Support); • Implement capacity-sharing approaches and South-South learning to meet core capacity needs of partners in food, land, and water systems research, policy analysis, and scaling of innovations. Globally, CGIAR aims to contribute to global policy processes to drive public and private investment toward food, land, and water systems transformations that address multiple SDG objectives, and to produce high-quality global public goods that influence discourses and actions and encourage further research by partners in priority and novel areas. This is conducted in collaboration with strategic partners, namely, FAO and other UN organizations. Examples of such work are the following: • Coordinate and communicate CGIAR’s offer to support Multilateral Environmental Agreements (e.g., United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Convention on Biological Diversity) and the follow-up to the United Nations Food Systems Summit; • Develop metrics and methods that can be used by national and international partners to assess resilience to climate change and measure contributions to GHG emission reduction in food, land, and water systems, thus accelerating the inclusion of agriculture and food and water security in climate change finance discussions; • Identify innovations, interventions, policies, and programs that have been demonstrated to work toward meeting SDGs and can be scaled up through international financial institutions (e.g., World Bank, IFAD, ADB, AfDB, IsDB) and global initiatives (e.g., Scaling Up Nutrition); • Contribute to global assessments that inform global policy processes (e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services). 12 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 2.5 Priority-setting within the Portfolio Along with an ambitious mission to contribute to food, land, and water systems transformation toward multiple Impact Areas, the potential scope of CGIAR’s research Portfolio is larger than in the past. Therefore, attention to priority-setting in the 2025–2030 Portfolio is paramount, at both the Portfolio and Program/ Accelerator levels. Priorities should be refreshed periodically (e.g., every three to five years) to respond to evolutions of challenges, megatrends, strategic opportunities, and unforeseen risks. In addition to the ability of different potential research areas to address challenges and megatrends (see Section 2.1) and demand from stakeholders (see Section 2.3), a key element to consider for comparing alternative uses of scarce resources is the analytical assessment of potential positive and negative impacts across the five Impact Areas (accounting for synergies and trade-offs) of different research areas, innovations, and policy and scaling pathways; of how these impacts are affected by geographical, temporal, and contextual factors; of the likelihood of adoption of innovations and policies; and of the feasibility of producing the needed research outputs. A significant body of evidence is available to inform such an assessment, much of which has been generated by CGIAR itself. In combination with the use of CGIAR’s ex ante modeling tools to project impacts (see, for example, this paper on prioritization of research), this evidence can be harnessed to provide inputs into prioritization processes at different levels within CGIAR. Building on successful examples of prioritization (e.g., in Genetic Innovation, see Box 5), CGIAR will advance a rigorous priority-setting process (more details forthcoming in the next version of the Portfolio narrative). Another element to be included in the priority-setting is comparative advantage, which is discussed in Section 3. 3. Harnessing CGIAR’s comparative advantage 3.1 Applying the ISDC framework to analyze comparative advantage According to the ISDC framework and methodology, comparative advantage analysis starts by defining the key pieces of work to be delivered. Therefore, this methodology will be applied at the Program/Accelerator level. It is proposed that each Program select key deliverables for this analysis, to be included in the design documents submitted in September. During the Programs’ and Accelerators’ inception phase, in which more detailed planning of delivery with partners will take place, updated comparative advantage analyses could be undertaken. The comparative advantage methodology consists of four major steps (see Box 4): The work of the Alliance’s Genetic Resources Unit to regenerate bean seeds, at a field site near Popayán, Colombia. Credit: CIAT / Neil Palmer CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 13 https://iaes.cgiar.org/isdc/publications/identifying-and-using-cgiars-comparative-advantage Identifying core sources of comparative advantage at CGIAR level (part of the ISDC methodology) is necessary for informing the design of the Programs and Accelerators and calibrating their levels of ambition. In addition, elucidating the sources of comparative advantage at CGIAR level provides a framework for alignment by the Programs and Accelerators. The ISDC method has four main sources of comparative advantage: incentives, human capital, biophysical capital, and social capital. Box 5 provides a non-exhaustive list of CGIAR’s comparative advantages for each source. In delivering impact across the five Impact Areas, the comparative advantage of CGIAR as a whole lies at the intersection of these sources of comparative advantage. CGIAR’s ambitious mission and position as a provider of global public research goods in food, land, and water systems enables it to participate as a credible and legitimate science and knowledge partner. The emphasis it places on the effectiveness and use of research implies that it must be dynamic and responsive to changing trends and demands. At the forefront of CGIAR’s ability to deliver impact is CGIAR’s human capital, including 9,000 scientists specialized in a wide range of disciplines and most of whom are based in low- and middle-income countries. This engine of expertise, along with CGIAR’s intellectual assets and past research, provides a solid body of experience for CGIAR to reliably contribute to the understanding of food, land, and water systems, and how to transform them. Bringing this expertise and experience together with that of CGIAR’s partners provides a unique foundation for achieving impact. CGIAR’s human capital is supported by its biophysical capital. Genebanks, experimental field trials, and research facilities are some of the key assets that CGIAR and partners rely on to deliver cutting- edge science that leads to impact. The global spread of biophysical capital allows CGIAR to respond to demand in all regions. CGIAR’s social capital, through existing and emerging partnerships, further cements CGIAR’s advantage in delivering impact. Partners’ trust and engagement allow CGIAR to share knowledge and capacities with those of partners to generate high-quality and impactful science. Moreover, these strong partnerships ensure that CGIAR’s expertise is channeled into the relevant research areas – delivering demand-driven science. As stated in the ISDC report, “within partnerships, CGIAR’s comparative advantage will commonly emerge from its ability to function as an integrative platform that facilitates complementary 1. Describing desired deliverables that contribute to the Program or Accelerator outcomes These are “the set of major knowledge, products, and services that need to be brought together to achieve CGIAR’s intended development outcomes and impacts.” 2. Identifying alternative service providers and potential partners These are identified based on their interests and capabilities in relation to the proposed deliverables. Some may be competitors and some may be candidates for collaboration. 3. Assessing relative trade-offs between activities and providers This is challenging for the complex, interrelated deliverables needed to transform food systems. We will “use quantitative information when possible and qualitative assessments when necessary.” 4. Planning partnerships These could include ongoing partnerships that are part of CGIAR’s existing capital as well as new partnerships identified in the process of assessing comparative advantage. Box 4. The four steps of comparative advantage analysis Incentives • Global mandate to deliver global public goods • Research-for-development objective, with a focus on the use of research • Strong demand for research, capacity sharing, and scaling support from national governments and global public funding agencies and institutions Human capital • Large number of diverse (across many dimensions such as scientific discipline, nationality, and gender) scientific staff in low- and middle-income countries • Expertise and experience in developing and applying research approaches (e.g., systems research, participatory research, gender-transformative research…) • World-renowned expertise in numerous disciplines (e.g., breeding, gender and social inclusion, farm management, systems modeling, climate change, and scaling science) • Unique intellectual assets (models, methods, metrics, datasets…) Biophysical capital (in low- and middle-income countries) • Genebanks, germplasm health units, and crop and animal breeding laboratories • State-of-the-art laboratory and field facilities for crop, livestock, and aquatic food research • Experiment stations for long-term crop, animal, and natural resource management field trials • Laboratories for soil, water, analytical chemistry, nutrition, food safety, and greenhouse gas analysis Social capital • Long-term presence across low- and middle-income countries, built upon long-term agreements with countries, long-lasting partnerships, and emerging novel partnerships • Partnerships and networks that extend from research to implementation and from local to global • Honest convener for inclusive partnerships • Established track record for high-quality multidisciplinary research Box 5. Key sources of CGIAR’s comparative advantage 14 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 https://iaes.cgiar.org/isdc/publications/identifying-and-using-cgiars-comparative-advantage research investments and activities, as well as its capacity to deploy its substantial scientific expertise and in-region facilities toward low- commercial-value/high-social-value, high-risk, long-horizon R&D that contributes to context-specific agricultural innovation.” Furthermore, as noted in ISDC’s technical note on inclusive innovation, CGIAR can strengthen its comparative advantage in context-specific, transformative agri-food systems research by building its co-innovation capacity. Although the sources of comparative advantage described above need to be assessed for specific deliverables and against specific alternative service providers, overall, they support several capabilities unique to CGIAR within food, land, and water systems: • Undertaking multi-scale, interdisciplinary research that aims to address multiple interconnected challenges that respond to demands from stakeholders at different levels, from local to global; • Forging partnerships that span across global, regional, national, and local partners to co-design research; • Undertaking research across diverse environments (by developing general principles with broad application and specific knowledge of what works where); and • Conducting research along impact pathways from discovery to implementation and scaling support to ex post evaluation of interventions. Woman making bread in a riverside community in Pando, Bolivia. Credit: Amy Duchelle / CIFOR CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 15 https://iaes.cgiar.org/isdc/publications/transformation-through-inclusive-innovation-literature-review-and-commentary https://iaes.cgiar.org/isdc/publications/transformation-through-inclusive-innovation-literature-review-and-commentary How does CGIAR and partners’ crop breeding work in tandem to have the greatest impact on global challenges? Identifying and using comparative advantage Building on progress made by the Excellence in Breeding Platform (2017–2021), from 2018 to 2022, the Accelerated Breeding Initiative undertook extensive consultations with NARES partners, CGIAR breeding leads and directors, industry experts, and funders to clarify institutional mandates, identify comparative advantage, and develop a baseline division of breeding activities across NARES-CGIAR breeding pipelines (see Figure 1). In 2022 and 2023, during the Senior Leadership Consultation Meeting of CGIAR- NARES breeding networks (see 2022 and 2023 Aide Memoires), Accelerated Breeding and NARES partners identified the need to more granularly align this split. Following this, Accelerated Breeding developed a standardized and scalable methodology for peer and self-assessment of CGIAR and partners’ levels of breeding activity, strengths, opportunities, and ambitions. This assessment helps determine partners’ capacity to deliver breeding activities in the NARES-led breeding functions (the green section of Figure 1) and informs their roles and responsibilities based on their strengths and mandates. In line with ISDC’s methodology for assessing comparative advantage, this assessment defines key deliverables through product design team meetings, where CGIAR and NARES partners jointly align breeding objectives with national priorities and help define national Target Product Profiles (TPPs). Using the national TPPs (breeding priorities) as a foundation, the standardized breeding program assessments provide a tier rating (1 to 5) defining the capacity of each partner to contribute to regional breeding efforts. In addition, the assessment defines opportunities and ambitions for improving each partner’s capacity to deliver on its objectives and TPPs in the future. These results are complemented with a breeding station assessment in which the infrastructure, equipment, and field operations of the NARES program are assessed using a template developed by Excellence in Breeding and now used by the Breeding Resources Initiative. These combined assessments provide baseline information for understanding where partners can contribute to CGIAR-NARES breeding networks to achieve their breeding objectives, where they are best placed to do so (i.e., comparative advantage), and how their roles and responsibilities in regional network activities can be augmented over time, based on their and CGIAR’s comparative advantages and ambitions. For example, NARES partners in several networks, largely in sub-Saharan Africa (matooke, maize, groundnut, sorghum), are taking on a greater share of the breeding activities within the pipeline for specific market segments in which they have suitable germplasm, human capacity, and operational setup. This results in increased operational budget for NARES to scale their breeding activities and contribute entries to regional trials for those particular market segments. In 2023, more than 50 NARES breeding programs were assessed. As a result, they are able to participate actively in joint priority- setting, plan capacity strengthening to best meet the needs of the whole breeding network, and assume a growing share of breeding responsibilities. NARES and CGIAR breeding teams also developed and agreed on 26 indicators of breeding process performance, which will be used by NARES-CGIAR breeding networks. They comprise executive- and management-level indicators that capture performance measures, improvement needs, and elements that drive genetic gains. From these indicators, context-specific KPIs will be developed. The results move NARES-CGIAR breeding networks toward harmonized and informative metric-driven learning and further incentivize implementation of strategic process improvement and breeding modernization across all partners. Some recent examples help illustrate these processes in practice. In Uganda, the NARO matooke breeding program has assumed total responsibility for final hybrid development, while IITA (the regional CGIAR network coordinator) is increasingly focused on upstream research and population improvement. In Kenya, KALRO has received additional network funding to lead maize hybrid development for the highlands market segment, where it has a comparative advantage (germplasm, research stations) relative to CIMMYT and IITA. For many dryland crops such as groundnut and pigeon pea, networks have decided to share pipelines between CGIAR and specific national programs that have sufficient breeding capacity. In these arrangements, operational resources to breed products for a particular market segment are shared between a CGIAR Center and national program, according to a clear, costed workplan that specifies partners’ roles. These examples illustrate the shift toward a partnership of equals based on comparative advantage within CGIAR-NARES regional breeding networks throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Box 6. Comparative advantage analysis from the Genetic Innovation Science Group Colombia’s eastern plains, or Llanos. Credit: Neil Palmer / CIAT 16 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 https://excellenceinbreeding.org/sites/default/files/u1025/Aide Memoire NARES-CGIAR 28 June 2022 signed_07_12.pdf https://storage.googleapis.com/cgiarorg/2023/10/Aide-Memoire-26-Oct-2023_signed_vNov9.pdf https://reporting.cgiar.org/reports/result-details/354?phase=3 https://reporting.cgiar.org/reports/result-details/353?phase=3 https://glomip.cgiar.org/target-product-profiles https://reporting.cgiar.org/reports/result-details/9285?phase=3 3.2 CGIAR’s roles alongside partners The CGIAR Engagement Framework for Partnership and Advocacy distinguishes three main types of CGIAR partners according to the stage of the theory of change in which the collaboration occurs: demand partners, innovation partners, and scaling partners. A given organization can play multiple roles, for example, as a scaling partner (driving the uptake of a CGIAR innovation) and as an innovation partner (co-testing a scaling method). Partners can also be further categorized by nature, for example, governments, national and international NGOs, international financial institutions (IFIs), multilateral institutions, private sector, farmers’ organizations, or NARES. Combined analysis of these partnership dimensions provides the basis for defining a partnership strategy for CGIAR and at the Program/Accelerator level. CGIAR’s role in relation to partners varies along the impact pathway. CGIAR co-identifies priorities for research with demand partners and co-generates scientific outputs with innovation partners. Further down the impact pathway into spheres of influence and interest, other organizations (e.g., IFIs, private sector, extension systems, NGOs, national policy advisory think tanks) have advantages over CGIAR for scaling innovations and influencing policy. CGIAR therefore focuses on engaging with these scaling partners to promote the uptake of scientific outputs and support scaling processes through activities such as transforming scientific results into more accessible formats, providing training and guidelines, and developing finance and scaling approaches. Innovation partners’ roles in co-generating research outputs and expressing demand for CGIAR’s research depend on their capabilities. Usually, demand exists for methods, tools, and services that are not available within these organizations. Conversely, CGIAR benefits from accessing methods shared by partners, for example, state-of-the- art breeding processes and methods (e.g., from the private sector), global modeling tools (e.g., through AgMIP), and the use of digital tools and AI approaches (e.g., from big data companies and remote- sensing centers). Another role of CGIAR is to convene partnerships that can effectively generate globally and regionally relevant research to develop NARES/SME Sparse Stage Early Stage Testing Late-Stage Testing OFVT (On-Farm Var. Trial) Release, License CGIAR Function Led By: Seed Systems: Prod and Delivery Market Intel, Product management NARES/SMEs (Private Sector) Joint CGIAR-NARES CGIAR-NARES Population improvement by Rapid Cycle GS Donor Dev and Trait Intro Trait Mining NARES/SMEs Cultivar Development & Commercial Release Effective CGIAR-NARES/SMEs Breeding Networks: Roles & Responsibilities CGIAR Regional Product Profiles and Pipeline Investment Cases Regional Product/Portfolio Manager (CG/NARES) NARES1 Product Profile SME1 Product Profile NARESX Product Profile CGIAR NARES/SMEs Figure 1. Accelerated Breeding Initiative’s model for engaging with CGIAR-NARES networks to determine comparative advantage and roles and responsibilities in breeding pipelines CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 17 https://agmip.org/ solutions to food, land, and water systems challenges. These cross- country partnerships strongly emphasize mutual capacity sharing and strengthening. CGIAR’s roles alongside partners have evolved and will continue to evolve. For instance, as noted in ISDC’s technical note on inclusive innovation, CGIAR should continuously pursue strategies to develop more inclusive and effective partnerships. Furthermore, in addition to bringing partners into CGIAR’s impact pathways, CGIAR positions itself to support partners’ own impact pathways, which also affects the dynamics of CGIAR and partners’ roles. The CGIAR Engagement Framework provides a set of principles to guide the conduct of CGIAR partnerships: (1) complementarity for impact toward common objectives; (2) shared ownership that includes equity and respect; (3) focus on results, especially on outcomes from the research; (4) transparency and accountability; (5) integrity, including adherence to standards and best practices, (6) calculated risk – identifying potential risks and jointly defining measures to address them, and (7) learning culture. 2 The names of the individual Programs and Accelerators have been updated from the version of this document that was submitted for review by the Independent Science for Development Council on 8 May 2024. They remain under review and may change before the submission of the final version of this Portfolio Narrative and full Program and Accelerator design documents later this year. 4. A restructured Portfolio 4.1 Moving to a new structure of Programs, Accelerators, and Assets Building on and implementing CGIAR’s 2030 Research and Innovation Strategy, addressing the most significant global challenges and implications of evolving megatrends, responding to partner and stakeholder demand, and leveraging CGIAR’s comparative advantage and track record of impact, the proposed 2025–2030 Portfolio is set out in eight Science Programs, one Scaling Program, and three Accelerators,2 underpinned by CGIAR’s Genebanks and other long- term strategic Assets and Knowledge (see Box 1). Science Programs: • Breeding for Tomorrow • Sustainable Farming • Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods • Multifunctional Landscapes • Better Nutrition • Climate Action • Policy Innovation • Food Frontiers and Security Scaling Program: • Scaling for Impact Accelerators: • Gender Equality and Inclusion • Shared Capacity • Digital Transformation Assets: Genebanks and Knowledge Box 1. CGIAR’s 2025—30 research and innovation Portfolio 18 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 Moving from the current Initiatives and Impact Area Platforms to Programs and Accelerators reflects two fundamental changes in CGIAR’s approach: (1) organizing the Portfolio around the most significant existing and emerging global challenges and addressing these through cutting-edge science and (2) aligning pooled and bilateral funding to provide a “whole-of-CGIAR” offer and contribute to shared goals and delivery of impact. The new structure enables CGIAR’s recommendations and findings to be more easily drawn and communicated from the entire Portfolio, across all funding sources. Science Programs serve as entry points to describe CGIAR’s offer on a key topic, elevating CGIAR’s visibility in global agendas and facilitating the continuation and formation of inclusive alliances and partnerships. The Accelerators and the Scaling Program will undertake strategic research in their topical areas as well as bolster CGIAR’s ability to reach and support targeted end-users while furthering collaboration, coherence, and integration across the entire Portfolio. The Accelerators and the Scaling Program thus work across all eight Science Programs. The current Impact Area Platforms have four functions: (1) fostering global critical thinking, use of evidence, and appropriate metrics around the Impact Area; (2) increasing internal capacity across CGIAR through strengthening and sharing common tools, standards, datasets, cutting-edge science, and knowledge management; (3) amplifying CGIAR’s external profile and voice by engaging in and shaping global policy discourse; and (4) advising management on the identification and performance of CGIAR Initiatives. The first three functions remain highly relevant; however, with the decreased number of research vehicles and the integration of bilateral and pooled funding, they no longer require separate structures and will therefore be integrated into the relevant Programs and Accelerators. As a result, the Impact Area Platforms will close on 31 December 2024. Section II provides preliminary ideas about how the Programs on Climate Action; Better Nutrition; and Multifunctional Landscapes and the Accelerator on Gender Equality and Inclusion will integrate the functions of the Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation; Nutrition, Health, and Food Security; Environment and Biodiversity; and GENDER Impact Area Platforms, respectively. The new Portfolio structure aligns with recommendations made in recent IAES-commissioned evaluations. Three of the recommendations from the CRP Synthesis Evaluation are reflected explicitly in the new structure: (1) the recommendation to “focus much more on institutional capacity development, especially of national ‘boundary’ partners” is reflected in the Accelerator on Shared Capacity; (2) the recommendation to “foster adoption of technical and social innovations at scale, as required to achieve system transformation, and give greater emphasis to research on scaling science and implementation science,” is taken up as a core objective of the Scaling Program; and (3) the “wholesale review of CGIAR capacities and opportunities around big data and practical field applications for pro-poor sustainable development” will be coordinated by the Accelerator on Digital Transformation. Similarly, the creation of an Accelerator on Gender Equality and Inclusion underscores the need to raise the ambition of CGIAR’s gender research throughout the Portfolio in alignment with the recent GENDER Platform Evaluation. The science from CGIAR’s 2022–2024 Portfolio will be transitioned into the relevant Programs (see Table 2). The 2025–2030 Portfolio builds upon ongoing work, creating a solid foundation for continuity while also expanding into emerging areas of science for impact. The Programs and Accelerators are designed for six years (from 2025 through 2030), with a robust mid-term review at the end of 2027 to ensure that the Portfolio as a whole and all of its components remain fit for purpose and appropriately prioritized based on performance over the first three years of implementation and in the face of evolving global challenges and megatrends, partner and stakeholder demand, as well as CGIAR’s comparative advantage and capabilities. Table 2. Simplified draft mapping of 2022-24 Initiatives into Programs, Accelerators, and Assets Program/Accelerator/ Genebanks Primary Initiatives* Secondary Initiatives** Science Program on Breeding for Tomorrow • Accelerated Breeding • Breeding Resources • Market Intelligence • Seed Equal • Plant Health Science Program on Sustainable Farming • Excellence in Agronomy • Plant Health • Mixed Farming Systems • Seed Equal • Agroecology • Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets Science Program on Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods • Livestock and Climate • Sustainable Animal Productivity • One Health • Aquatic Foods • Low-Emission Food Systems • Mixed Farming Systems Science Program on Multifunctional Landscapes • Agroecology • Nature-Positive Solutions • Mixed Farming Systems • Livestock and Climate • One Health CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 19 https://iaes.cgiar.org/evaluation/publications/2021-Synthesis https://iaes.cgiar.org/evaluation/publications/cgiar-gender-platform-evaluation-report Program Primary Initiatives* Secondary Initiatives** Science Program on Better Nutrition • Rethinking Food Markets • Sustainable Healthy Diets • Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets • Accelerated Breeding • Resilient Cities Science Program on Climate Action • Climate Resilience • NEXUS Gains • Low-Emission Food Systems • Accelerated Breeding • Gender Equality • Fragility, Conflict, and Migration • Livestock and Climate Science Program on Policy Innovation • Foresight • National Policies and Strategies • Gender Equality • NEXUS Gains • Rethinking Food Markets Science Program on Food Frontiers and Security • Fragility, Conflict, and Migration • Resilient Cities • Market Intelligence • Foresight • Digital Innovation • Nature-Positive Solutions Scaling Program • Transforming Agri-Food Systems in South Asia • Diversification for Resilient Agribusiness Ecosystems in East and Southern Africa • AgriLAC Resiliente • Asian Mega-Deltas • From Fragility to Resilience in Central and West Asia and North Africa • West and Central African Food Systems Transformation • Seed Equal • Nature-Positive Solutions Accelerator on Gender Equality and Inclusion • Gender Equality • Market Intelligence Accelerator on Shared Capacity • N/A • N/A Accelerator on Digital Transformation • Digital Innovation • Breeding Resources Genebanks • Genebanks • Breeding Resources • Accelerated Breeding • Plant Health * The whole Initiative or the vast majority of the Initiative’s work is expected to be incorporated into the relevant Program/Accelerator. ** A small component of the Initiative’s work is expected to be incorporated into the relevant Program/Accelerator. 20 CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 4.2 Improved Portfolio coherence supporting CGIAR’s theory of change 4.2.1 CGIAR’s theory of change Figure 2 depicts a simplified CGIAR-level theory of change (ToC). The CGIAR ToC begins with grand challenges in food, land, and water systems, coupled with the ISDC megatrends (see Column 1 in Figure 2 and Section 2.1 of this document). Although the challenges and megatrends are listed separately, they intersect to create specific dynamics that play out in various ways in the different geographies of low- and middle-income countries. This is why a critical element of the ToC is the understanding of and responsiveness to local context and demand (Column 2 in Figure 2). This is done by aligning with national priorities (see Section 2.3), analyzing comparative advantage (Section 3), and forming alliances with local partners – a key step for shaping CGIAR priorities. The assessment of challenges, megatrends, and other prioritization activities requires periodic refreshing to ensure that CGIAR’s research is positioned to be as impactful as possible (Section 2.5). The third column in Figure 2 presents the CGIAR offer of eight Science Programs, one Scaling Program, three Accelerators, and Genebanks and Knowledge.3 The outputs generated by all Portfolio components align with the core CGIAR innovation, capacity, and policy impact pathways. They are informed by challenges and megatrends, partner engagement, comparative advantage analysis, and ex ante assessments. Some examples of key CGIAR outputs for each of the three impact pathways are listed in Column 4. Innovations range from crop varieties and field, farm, and landscape management practices to institutional and organizational innovations. Capacity-strengthening outputs are targeted to both organizations and individuals. Policy outputs aim to inform decision makers at different levels and stages of policy processes. As a research-for-development organization, CGIAR implements actions to promote and facilitate the use of outputs by external organizations. Such actions, outlined in Column 5, include developing scaling strategies, identifying effective dissemination methods, and engaging with policymakers. 3 The long-term strategic Assets and Knowledge required for CGIAR to deliver cutting-edge research underpin and support the entire Portfolio and will be funded separately. Genebanks have been identified as a core component of Assets and Knowledge (see the description of Genebanks in Section II), while other long-term assets (such as other laboratories, experiment stations, and core models) are undergoing assessment in an ongoing study prior to their inclusion in this category. Ethiopia Field Visit 2019. 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h ea lth y di et s ar e un af fo rd ab le fo r 3 b ill io n pe op le ; f oo d in se cu rit y is on th e ris e. •HH iigg hh rruu rraa ll pp oovv eerr ttyy rraa ttee ss d ue t o lo w a gr ic ul tu ra l p ro du ct iv ity a nd la ck o f d ec en t l iv el ih oo ds in a gr i- fo od sy st em s •G G eenn ddee rr aa nndd ssoo ccii aall iinn eeqq uuaa lliitt iiee ssa re de ep ly e nt re nc he d an d gr ow in g w ith in a gr i-f oo d sy st em s; liv el ih oo d op po rtu ni tie s f or y ou th ar e un re m un er at iv e an d un ap pe al in g •H H iigg hh eenn vvii rroo nnmm eenn ttaa ll ff oooo ttpp rriinn tt oo ff aagg rriicc uull ttuu rree in cl ud in g de gr ad at io n of la nd , v eg et at io n, a nd w at er re so ur ce s; o ff- sit e po llu tio n; fi sh st oc k de pl et io n; G H G e m iss io ns ; an d bi od iv er sit y lo ss •MM EEGG AA TTRR EENN DD SS •D em og ra ph ic tr en ds •C ha ng in g co ns um pt io n pa tte rn s •M ar ke t c on ce nt ra tio n in a gr i-f oo d sy st em s •C lim at e ch an ge •E nv iro nm en ta l d eg ra da tio n •S hi fti ng g lo ba l h ea lth c ha lle ng es •G eo po lit ic al in st ab ilit y •G ro w in g in eq ua lit ie s •F ro nt ie r t ec hn ol og y an d in no va tio n •A lig nm en t w ith k ey na tio na l s tra te gi es in th e fo od , l an d an d w at er se ct or s •C oo rd in at ed en ga ge m en t w ith gl ob al , r eg io na l, an d na tio na l p ar tn er s •B ro ad en in g th e ar ra y of CG IA R st ak eh ol de rs to in cl ud e th e fin an ce , e ne rg y, an d he al th se ct or s •A lli an ce s w ith m aj or re gi on al a nd g lo ba l de ve lo pm en t in iti at iv es •I de nt ify in g op po rtu ni tie s an d tra de of fs , pr oj ec tin g be ne fit s •D et er m in in g co m pa ra tiv e ad va nt ag e Fi gu re 2 . C G IA R’ s h ig h- le ve l t he or y of c ha ng e, in c ol la bo ra tio n w ith p ar tn er s By generating high-quality research, co-creating innovations, and undertaking actions to transform research and innovation into use, CGIAR and its partners increase the likelihood of achieving out- comes. Examples of key high-level outcomes that CGIAR contributed to in recent years are listed in Column 6. These include the use of innovations by various stakeholders in food, land, and water sys- tems; capacity change; and enactment of strategies and policies at different levels. CGIAR’s contributions to new business models driven by private-sector agents are also needed to achieve food, land, and water systems transformation. The specific outcomes that CGIAR will contribute to through the 2025–2030 Portfolio will be defined through consultative processes with stakeholders.. Finally, if the outcomes are significant enough and sufficiently integrated in specific geographies to support transformation, the ToC posits that they will contribute to impacts on food, land, and water systems transformation that will be reflected through positive changes in CGIAR Impact Area indicators. Figure 2 does not include the feedback and learning loops that span the different stages of the ToC and are fundamental to adaptive management. It also does not show the specific roles of partners and stakeholders in shaping CGIAR activities and outputs. It should be emphasized that the CGIAR ToC encompasses its work with partners and reflects consultations with stakeholders. 4.2.2 How the Programs, Accelerators, and Assets collectively deliver on CGIAR’s theory of change Building on the cross-Initiative collaboration efforts in the 2022–2024 Portfolio, the design of the new Portfolio includes intentional and explicit integration of Initiatives (see Table 2), alignment of relevant bilateral projects, as well as cross-Portfolio linkages in support of a clearer and more streamlined offer. The Portfolio components interact to coherently address key challenges and contribute to outcomes and impact in the following ways: • All Programs and Accelerators contribute to more than one Impact Area. However, the Programs on Climate Action, Multifunctional Landscape, and Better Nutrition, and the Accelerator on Gender Equality and Inclusion each have a stronger alignment with one Impact Area and serve as anchors to drive cohesion and learning in this Impact Area. • All Programs and Accelerators pursue more than one of CGIAR’s three main impact pathways (innovation, policy, and capacity). Some Programs and Accelerators reinforce good practices and support other Programs and Accelerators on a specific impact pathway. This is the case of the Scaling Program, which serves key functions for the innovation impact pathway by both signaling demand to prioritize research and innovations and by supporting other Programs in testing, adapting, and scaling innovation bundles; the Program on Policy Innovation, which convenes a community of practice in support of the policy pathway, in turn supporting the Program on Scaling for Impact’s work to build enabling environments for scaling; and the Accelerator on Shared Capacity, which co- invests in capacity strengthening with Programs. • Each Program works across scales. In addition, several Programs play an integrative role at key scales. For example, the Program on Sustainable Farming is a focal Program for integrating CGIAR’s work at the field and farm levels. The Program on Multifunctional Landscapes plays a pivotal role in understanding the intersection of land (including agriculture, soils, forests, and wetlands), water, and biodiversity with livelihoods, policies, and institutions at the landscape scale. While the Program on Policy Innovation’s research spans from global to local, its work on policy responses to meet multiple objectives happens mostly at the national or sub-national levels, where policy/investment decisions are most critical and where global and regional policies are implemented. • The Program on Scaling for Impact advances the science and practice of scaling. It coordinates efforts to quantify and communicate the demand for research and scaling at country and regional levels to other Programs, helping to iteratively prioritize research. It convenes cross-Program collaborations in an adaptive learning-oriented approach for testing and improving bundles of innovations and helps other Programs develop scaling strategies. • Accelerators support science and innovation within their topical areas while ensuring that best practice methods and key findings are harvested and used throughout the Portfolio. For example, the Accelerator on Gender Equality and Inclusion conducts strategic research to identify interventions to enhance women’s empowerment in food, land, and water systems and support system change toward more equality and inclusion, while also contributing to integration of cutting- edge gender research methods, tools, and evidence into other Programs and Accelerators. • All Programs and Accelerators address emerging concerns that are not yet high on development agendas. In addition, the Program on Food Frontiers and Security houses research on cross-cutting frontier topics, such as a focus on conflict-prone and other fragile settings where food and water insecurity and poverty are most acute. This Program also focuses on rapidly changing urban environments where food security pressure is increasing with changing demographics. Finally, it will house research on fast-evolving innovations that are shaping how food is produced and distributed. • the long-term Assets and Knowledge required for CGIAR to deliver cutting-edge research, and which underpin and support the entire Portfolio, will be funded separately. These include genebanks as well as other laboratories (animal research, nutrition, soil, and water), experiment stations, and core models. The ongoing IAES-commissioned evaluation of Science Groups has identified several constraints to integration in the 2022–2024 Portfolio. First, geographical concentration of research is one of the necessary conditions for improved integration. Second, in countries with concentration of research (e.g., Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Kenya...), meaningful integration requires proper investment in time and resources. The new, more consolidated 2025–2030 Portfolio structure positions CGIAR well to take these learnings on board and seize opportunities for better integration. From a thematic perspective, the boundaries between the various Programs and Accelerators are intentionally not rigid, thus creating space for collaboration and complementarity to be refined in the next phase of their design. For example, some dimensions of livestock and fish breeding are envisaged to be included in the Program on Breeding for Tomorrow and others in the Program on Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods. Many other topical areas for collaboration have been identified (see Section II). CGIAR Portfolio Narrative 2025-2030 23 4.3 Assets and Knowledge A cross-CGIAR Steering Group is currently overseeing a study of the long-term strategic Assets and Knowledge that underpin CGIAR’s science and innovations (long-term field trials, breeding services and operations, long-term data maintenance, and modeling capabilities). This study aims to help understand the full range of these Assets and Knowledge and set out options for their improved management as well as sufficient, predictable, and sustainable financing. It will answer questions such as: Which investments in CGIAR assets are needed and through which mechanisms? Which savings can be achieved through these investments? Which opportunities are there for optimization across Centers? Early findings are expected in May 2024, with more detailed directions to be developed alongside the Portfolio for consideration by the System Council later this year. Owing to the crucial role of genebanks for CGIAR and other organizations across the globe, and to the existing consolidated body of knowledge on their costs and management, this component of Assets and Knowledge has been included in the design of the 2025–2030 Portfolio, with a short description of the Genebanks component provided in Section II of this document and a full design document on Genebanks to be submitted in September. 4.4 Continued strengthening of gender and social inclusion research Gender and social inclusion research is critical to the success of CGIAR. It is embedded throughout the CGIAR Portfolio and ensures that the solutions developed by CGIAR and partners reach and benefit women and men equitably. In addition, it identifies and addresses root causes of inequalities in agri-food systems and aims to increase women’s empowerment and support systems change toward equality and inclusion, thereby contributing to SDG 5 and other SDGs. The 2023 annual CGIAR GENDER Conference organized by the Gender Impact Area Platform highlighted the need to advance the gender research agenda to boost gender-transformative research and provide solutions to gender inequalities, which are exacerbated by the climate change crisis and other shocks and stressors. Meeting these objectives requires continued attention to increasing investment in the scope and quality of gender research. Building on the work of the GENDER Platform, the Accelerator on Gender Equality and Inclusion will implement its own agenda-setting research for CGIAR and work with the Programs to create a coherent and relevant gender and social i