CRP Engagement with Donors Montpellier, 17-18th June 2013 http://wheat.org/ Victor Kommerell, CRP Program Manager: v.kommerell@cgiar.org Todays Agenda  WHEAT IDOs, Impact Pathways & Theories of Change – WHEAT research results and impact on the ground & Regional collaborations – Gender and Impact – Intermediate Development Outcomes & Flagship Projects – Next Steps to refine IDOs etc. with R4D partners  Partnerships – Current status – Next steps  Conclusions Impact pathway in action – Fighting against a threat to global food security (Ug99) IDO cluster: Improved varieties onto research & farmers fields In 5 years from 90% susceptible varities to … Improved varieties available to NARS & first releases by NARS Genetic discovery & breeding for Ug99 resistance (faster thru 2 breeding cycles p.a.) And make 6 countries epidemic-proof: Great example of IAR-NARS-Donors collaboration 2009: Improved varieties available to NARS & first releases by NARS – thanks to BGRI 2006-2008: Genetic discovery & breeding for Ug99 resistance accelerated thru shuttle breeding Mexico - Kenya) 2008-12: Seed multiplication in 6 vulnerable countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nepal , Pakistan and Iran – USAID Famine project, CGIAR W1&2, Iran 2012-13 season: 5% of national wheat area threshold to counter an epidemic is reached Bigger WHEAT impact picture: Improved varieties in farmers’ fields 100% % Wheat Area 75% 50% 25% 0% CGIAR cultivars CGIAR derived cultivars Non-CGIAR related (Lantican et al., 2005) Sustainable wheat-based systems From To IDO: Sustainably grow Stripe Review Recommends: GxMxE^I, robust more with less for metrics, cross-cutting methodologies improved livelihoods Multi-scale Field scale & innovation systems & Climate Change • Of 15 farmingNRM systems in areas Protocols / guides Precision Agriculture of greatest poverty • 12 are rice-, maize- and/or 2009: CSISA Phase 1 kicks wheat-based systems 2007: RWC off / impacts 2 • Drives WHEAT Theme MasAgro assessed / CA Take It To (sustainable 1994 Rice wheat-based Hub in The Farmer Wheat Mexico: (TTF) starts systems) Consortium Proof-ofNRM (RWC) 1992: CA IndoGanges long-term Plain: Zero experiment tillage starts concept for innovation & learning platform WHEAT Regional Collaborations: CSISA as model Collaboration across CRPs: WHEAT, GRiSP, MAIZE, Policy, Livestock, CCAFS, in the Indo Gangetic Plain Number of poor in wheat-based systems in South Asia Cereal systems >50% area under crop 175 million >25% area under crop 284 million Wheat systems % of total poor (ca. 516mn) 34% 55% Source: Sonders 2013; based on data from IFPRI, World Bank , FAO, UNDP: People living on $1.25 or less a day Add Precision Ag to the Systems mix IDO: Sustainably grow more with less for improved livelihoods • Wheat uses more N than any other crop (19%) • China, India and Pakistan apply 50% of all N used for wheat • Nitrogen use efficiency in LDC only 1/3 = 2 of 3 kg N applied end up in water or air • NUE in W-Europe is about 65% = twice as high; Max. NUE is around 80% Example in Africa: Impact in Ethiopia   Alemata Gonder  Sirinka  Adet  Debre Birhan Ambo  Holetta   Werer Debre Zeit   Mekele IDO cluster: Improved varieties onto research & farmers fields Areka  Haremaya  Kulumsa  Sinana  Jijiga  Gode Awassa  Improved agronomic/IPM practices  122 improved wheat varieties released ≥ 80 CGIAR origin /cross  Yields up from 0.6 t/ha 1970 to 2 t/ha in 2012 What about the rest of Africa? Wheat for Africa (W4A)! Climate change brings opportunities to Africa – Changes in cereal outputs UNEP (2009) The Environmental Food Crisis - The Environment's Role in Averting Future Food Crises, Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil. Modelling study shows: Africa can grow more wheat profitably Eight SSA countries could increase wheat production profitably to meet growing demand WHEAT for Africa conference African MoA have endorsed wheat as a strategic crop African working women drive wheat consumption WHEAT Theme 1 (better target & prioritize)  As more women join the labor force, African wheat demand grows, along with urbanization  Wheat products take less time to prepare than many other popular staples  Africa spent $US20bn on wheat imports in 2012 Dr. Nicole Mason, MSU Kinshasa supermarket Gender emphasis: Understand & Integrate Two big Challenges 1. WHEAT (rural) target regions = often paternalistic, maledominated societies 2. Developing ALL rural talent is key to sustainable greater productivity Need for Action  Understand hurdles & identify sensible ‘entry-points’ for improving equity & equality Focal areas:  WHEAT Gender audit  Scoping Study on Strengthening Gender Integration in South Asia  Coming up: Diagnosis of gender relations in wheat production, processing and marketing in key target regions WHEAT Impacts … Expected Impact (as stated in 2011 Proposal, excerpts) Study Byerlee and Traxler (1996)  An added value of $3.0bn per year 1966-90 Internal rate of wheat produced = US$ return of 53% 1.3 billion by 2020 & Heisey et al. (2002) 1996-97 $2.4bn per year US$ 8.1 billion by 2030 mid-range estimate Lantican et al. 1988-2002 $3.4-4.8bn per year  Enough wheat to feed (2005)--mid-range an additional 56 million estimate consumers by 2020 & Marasas et al. 1973-2007 (2004)--leaf rust an additional 397 resistance only million by 1965-2000 2030 Evenson and With no breeding Rosegrant, 2002  Breaking the wheat research: 9-14% reduction in yield barrier by 50%output 29-61% increase in price Period covered All breeding Attributed to IWIN $1.5bn per year $1.1bn per year $1.0 to 1.8bn per year $5.4bn net present value With no CGIAR 5-6% reduction in output 19-22% increase in price What impact? - WHEAT re-assessed partner priorities among NARS, extension, seed companies and farmer organizations 74 responses to Partner Priorities Survey Poverty Poverty Food and reduction and Environment: Environment: reduction and equity: Better equity: Poverty Capacity: A More Increased access to sustainable & production and malnutrition cutting-edge new generation resilient farming through higher are reduced technologies of scientists and systems, despite yields and better (women and (role of private other climate impact stress resistance children) sector) professionals Food: Increasing Type of Impact Ranking (based on no of points) 1st/1st or 2nd choice (no of partners) demands for food met. Stable food prices for poor consumers 1st (1255) 24 2nd (1084) 7 2nd (1021) 9 4th (788) 4 3rd (940) 6 1st (1312) 15 Generating impact by delivering on an integrated set of Flagship Products WHEAT Flagship products matched with generic IDOs IDOs: Productivity, environment, risk mgt (nutrition) SI 1 Technology Targeting for Greatest Impact IDOs: NRM productivity, systems, environmental, livelihoods, innovation SI 9 Seeds of Discovery SI 4 Productive Wheat Varieties SI 5 – Durable Pest & Disease resistance SI 2 – Sustainable Wheat-based System FARMERS SI 6 – Enhanced Heat & Drought Tolerance SI 3 – Nutrient- and Water-use Efficiency SI 7 – Breaking the Yield Barrier SI 8 - More and better Seed IDOs: future options, productivity (carbon) SI 10 Strengthening Capacities Comprehensive Wheat Improvement Systems: on Field & Farm Adoption & Use WHEAT Flagship clusters make IDOs possible Improved varieties onto research & farmers fields Sustainably grow more with less for improved livelihoods SI 1 Technology Targeting for Greatest Impact SI 9 Seeds of Discovery SI 4 Productive Wheat Varieties SI 5 – Durable Pest & Disease resistance SI 2 – Sustainable Wheat-based System FARMERS SI 6 – Enhanced Heat & Drought Tolerance SI 3 – Nutrient- and Water-use Efficiency SI 7 – Breaking the Yield Barrier SI 8 - More and better Seed Frontier genetic research: Novel diversity & break the yield barrier SI 10 Strengthening Capacities Comprehensive Wheat Improvement Systems: on Field & Farm Adoption & Use Five Wheat IDOs Research Strategy 1:Sustainably grow more with less for improved livelihoods Research Strategy 2:Improved varieties onto research and farmer’s fields • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO1 Rural Poverty SLO2 Food Security • IDO 1. Accelerated varieties release scaled out IDO 2. Farmers minimise unsustainable effects on soil, environment & improve their household income & livelihoods IDO 3. Farmers have more & better access to quality seed & use them • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO2 Food Security SLO3 Nutrition & Health SLO1 Rural Poverty Research Strategy 3:Frontier Genetic Research for novel diversity & breaking the yield barrier • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO2 Food Security SLO4 Sustainability • IDO 5. Faster & more significant genetic gains in breeding programs worldwide, using more effective approaches for complex traits • IDO 1. Accelerated varieties release scaled out IDO4. Smallholders’ modern wheat varieties adoption translates into higher, more stable yields in WHEAT target regions Next: Refine IDOs with R4D partners Why?   Partners are at the interface of generating impact Partner performance influences speed and extent of impact What/How?      Use “6 Questions” approach to link outputs to outcomes Identify necessary R4D partners and ‘required actors’ Spell out assumptions made; define criteria for assessing performance Detail linkages with other CRPs: What kind? Which projects? Use Partner Priorities Survey responses to define IAR4D role When?   Sept 2013: WHEAT-Stakeholder Committee reviews and approves approach to partner engagement March 2014: Main agenda for WHEAT General Meeting (linked to Borlaug 100 event) Partner Priorities among WHEAT Themes Theme 1 Better target, prioritise 2 wheat systems 3 precision agri (WUE, NUE) 4 better varieties 5 pests & diseases 6 heat & drought 7 break yield barrier 8 more and better seed 9 Seeds of Discover y 10 Cap Dev Priority for own instit. 4th 3rd 3rd 1st 2nd 2nd 4th 4th 4th 3rd Priority for IAR 4th 3rd 4th 1st 1st 2nd 4th 4th 4th 3rd Divergence of partner and donor perceptions Interpretation and use of results? WHEATs different kinds of partners ... CRP composed of Strategic Research Initiatives (SI), … Research Design Stage Research Activities Stage Outputs Stage Outcomes Stage Impact Stage Research Partners (upstream) Development Partners (downstream) Steering partners (on WHEAT-MC: ICARDA, BBSRC, ICAR, GRDC) Fundamental Agri Research Applied Agri Research Socioeconomic research Environmental research WYN: ARI’s worlwide Different kinds of R4D partners; per project, mainly bilaterally funded & ‘continuous partners’ university research partners Extension agents MasAgro Take It to the Farmer; CSISA innovation system partners Competitive Partner Grants Wheat Int’l Trials Cooperators (NARS) – IWIN: 622 collaborators Policy-related For special, exante studies 24 620 cooperators want WHEAT germplasm on an annual basis: Growing demand! CGIAR Partner Perception Survey: WHEAT compared to other CRPs 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Mean All CRPs Max Score Global expertise High caliber staff High quality research Innovation Facilitating access to research Relevant research / Research results in outputs Response to clients, credit sharing and communication R4D partners want to see WHEAT improve on “involving partners in decisions” and “sharing credit” WHEAT Score Partnership realities and desired future Now  Funds: W1/2 & bilateral flow-thru + extra Partner Budget (Competitive Partner Grants) CIMMYT and ICARDA partner on program management & research delivery   Program Management Partners – Internal: CIMMYT, ICARDA – External: BBSRC, GRDC, ICAR In Future  Better know, evaluate our partners, act on that knowledge – Different & better (not more) partners – Spend more time/effort on p’ship relationship mgt  Partners’ perspective: Make clearer how partners will be involved at different levels (research priorities, design, delivery) – Driven by adjusting Themes’ project portfolio to national/regional priorities – More joint fundraising 27  Steering Partners – Broader partner involvement in strategy dev: Launch Conference & Partner Priorities Survey Donors who make partnering possible Selected; from 59 active grants in 2012, of which 20 are funded by W1&2 SAGARPA (Mexico MoA) CGIAR Fund Harvest Plus (CRP4) Generation Challenge Program BMZ/GIZ (Germany) USDA & USAID GRDC & ACIAR (AU) CAAS & NFSC, China BMGF, Syngenta Foundation & Agrovegetal ICAR, India AAREOO, Iran JIRCAS & MoFA, Japan Way Forward for WHEAT Way forward: Partnerships for IDO Impact Research Strategy 1:Sustainably grow more with less for improved livelihoods Research Strategy 2:Improved varieties onto research and farmer’s fields • System-Level Coalition Development Outcomes SLO1 Rural Poverty SLO2 Food Security System-Level for Wheat•for Africa Development (W4A) Outcomes Research Strategy 3:Frontier Genetic Research for novel diversity & breaking the yield barrier Regional, multi• IDO& 1. Accelerated hub varieties release stakeholder scaled out R4D programs IDO 2. Farmers SLO2 Food Security SLO3 Nutrition & Health SLO1 Rural Poverty • • System-Level Development Outcomes SLO2 Food Security SLO4 Sustainability • minimise unsustainable effects on soil, environment & improve their household income & livelihoods IDO 3. Farmers have more & better access to quality seed & use them Phenotyping IDO 1. Accelerated varieties release scaled out Global Faster IDO4. Smallholders’ Breeding Platform modern wheat varieties adoption translates into higher, more stable yields in WHEAT Heat & target regions Global Wheat Yield IDONetwork 5. Faster & more significant genetic based on gains in breeding programs MEXIPLAT worldwide, using Platform more effective approaches for complex traits Seeds of Discovery Platform Drought Consortium Way forward: Genomics enables faster Improved varieties onto breeding success research & farmers fields • Genotyping • Phenotyping Training population update • Estimating marker effects GS model Target population • • • • Genotyping only Estimating GEBVs Selection Intercrossing Way forward: Collaboratively fight major Improved varieties onto pests and diseases research & farmers fields Example: Fusarium Head Blight is global problem, so bundle global R4D resources Build Global Pests & Diseases Observatory and Early Warning System Wheat needs to beat the heat: Photosynthetic Efficiency (WYN) Frontier genetic research: Novel diversity & break the yield barrier Food security of 1 billion people in South Asia affected by climate change >> accelerating food price inflation Ways Forward for WHEAT Phase III Phase II: 2015Phase I: 2020 2012-14