Poultry value chain and cluster development in Papua New Guinea: Insights from a recent field study Peixun Fang Harry Gimiseve Rishabh Mukerjee Emily Schmidt Xiaobo Zhang WORKING PAPER SEPTEMBER 2024 CONTENTS Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Background .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 3 Context of the PNG poultry sector ..................................................................................................... 5 Consumption of animal-sourced food in PNG .................................................................................. 5 Prices of chicken and eggs in PNG and nearby countries ................................................................ 6 Costs of feed and DOC in PNG and nearby countries ...................................................................... 7 Poultry (broiler chicken) value chain mapping .................................................................................. 9 Word frequency of the interview transcripts .................................................................................... 12 Puzzles, Constraints, and Opportunities ......................................................................................... 14 Intriguing puzzles and binding constraints within the PNG poultry value chain ............................... 14 Potential suited solutions to the key constraints after diagnoses .................................................... 15 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 18 About the Authors ............................................................................................................................. 19 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................. 19 References ......................................................................................................................................... 19 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................ 21 A1. Additional figures ..................................................................................................................... 21 A2. Detailed interview transcripts ................................................................................................... 22 TABLES Table 1: Price of Eggs and Chicken Meat of PNG and nearby countries in 2024. ........................... 7 Table 2: Retail prices of complete feed and DOC in broiler chicken production of PNG and nearby countries .................................................................................................................................. 8 Table 3: Unit values of imported main feed ingredients of PNG and nearby countries between 2013 and 2022 ...................................................................................................................................... 8 FIGURES Figure 1: Main locations of poultry value chain stakeholders surveyed ......................................... 4 Figure 2: Quantity (grams) consumed of each food group, per adult equivalent/day .................... 5 Figure 3: Expenditure share of protein-rich foods by food item and consumption-expenditure quintile .................................................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 4: Value chain mapping for small-scale poultry business .................................................... 9 Figure 5: Value chain mapping for medium-scale poultry business .............................................. 10 Figure 6: Value chain mapping for commercial large-scale poultry business .............................. 11 Figure 7: Word Cloud based on the interview transcripts .............................................................. 13 1 ABSTRACT Despite poultry being lauded as a relatively affordable source of protein and micronutrients in many lower-income countries, chicken meat is twice as expensive in PNG compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries. Recent rural household consumption data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that an important share of households do not eat enough protein to meet healthy dietary guidelines (Schmidt et al., 2024). Poultry, along with fish and pork, are the three most important animal-source protein foods in the country, yet these products remain financially prohib- itive to a large share of the population. This paper explores the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG’s poultry sector using a "growth diagnostic" approach (pioneered by Rodrik, 2010). Through interviews with key stakeholders across the poultry value chain, we found that while high feed costs persist as a significant challenge, poultry farmers have yet to adopt additional cost-reduction strategies, such as establishing small-scale regional feed mills, utilizing local feed ingredients, and diversifying feed and input imports. An intriguing puzzle of PNG’s poultry sector is the limited number of small-scale producers successfully transitioning to medium-scale operations. This primarily stems from high transport costs and restricted access to input and sales markets. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less at- tention than production. Drawing on the experiences of successful models in other countries and con- sidering the specific situation of PNG's poultry sector, fostering poultry production and processing clus- ters (e.g., in Lae suburban areas) emerges as a potential strategy to address production, transporta- tion, and marketing constraints. By concentrating production, value chain clustering can enhance ac- cess to essential services (e.g. slaughtering and cold storage), improve market access, and reduce overall costs. While clustering holds promise for PNG’s poultry value chain, its success hinges upon joint action between the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs operating within the value chain. Keywords: Papua New Guinea, Poultry, Value chain, livestock feed. 2 INTRODUCTION Papua New Guinea (PNG), a country blessed with abundant minerals and fertile soil, struggles to sup- ply enough livestock to meet the demand for animal-source protein at competitive domestic market prices. Coupled with inadequate protein intake (Schmidt et al., 2024), poultry meat and eggs are com- paratively expensive throughout PNG, costing on average 50 percent more in PNG than in the United States (Table 1). Recent literature on agricultural value chain organization and function in Papua New Guinea is scarce, especially for the poultry sector. One exception is a 2022 qualitative study conducted jointly by the In- ternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) in the Highlands of PNG (Fang et al., 2023). This study explored the feasibility of expanding the local mini livestock feed mills in rural PNG to improve poultry feed access in underserved areas. The study showed that poultry farmers that purchased from local mini feed mills significantly reduced their feed costs, however expansion of mini feed mills continues to meet restrictive challenges including pro- curing feed mill equipment, ensuring reliable electricity and raw ingredient supply, and establishing a retail network to secure a customer base. While the previous study focused on small-scale rural poultry production, this paper reports major find- ings from an expansive qualitative value chain study that includes PNG’s major suburban poultry pro- duction areas. We collaborated with local partners (the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA), the Farmers & Settlers Association (FSA), and NARI) to conduct in-depth focus group discussions among producers, traders, and sellers within the poultry sector to identify key bottlenecks. This report draws upon extensive primary interviews with key stakeholders of varying scales across both rural and urban areas of PNG between October and November of 2023. In doing so, we developed separate value chain mappings for small, medium, and large-scale poultry producers. These disaggregated map- pings offer greater detail and clarity to key actors and linkages within different scales of poultry produc- tion compared to previous studies. Additionally, we linked the interview notes (in Appendix) to the value chain mapping by assigning each interview a unique identifier that corresponds to the relevant actor in the value chain mapping. After the value chain mapping exercise, we identified two main puzzles: in ad- dition to the commonly recognized challenge of high cost of feed, challenge in marketing chicken seems a key bottleneck that hinders the small-scale poultry producers from scaling up. Our Word Cloud graph results on the interview transcripts are in line with these puzzles. BACKGROUND Value chains thrive on the smooth interaction of numerous interconnected linkages. The productivity of every participant depends on the performance of these linkages. A single broken link can compromise the chain's overall efficiency, as theorized by Kremer (1993) when he put forth his O-ring theory. This risk is particularly amplified in island economies such as PNG, where most intermediate inputs such as seeds, animal feed and feed ingredients, fertilizer, and pesticide are imported. The vast geographic dis- tance of these vital inputs significantly increases the vulnerability of PNG's agricultural value chains to disruptions and missing linkages. The challenge of promoting competitive value chains is further compounded by the country’s poor infra- structure and prohibitive regulatory burdens facing importers. Poor infrastructure translates to high transportation costs for both inputs and final products. PNG also faces significant vulnerability to 3 transport disruptions such as roadblocks due to conflicts, landslides, and political campaigns. Addition- ally, due to lack of input supply information and availability, it often takes producers multiple return trips to buy inputs, compounding transportation costs. The country's stringent biosafety protocols mandate costly on-site inspections at source countries for agricultural inputs. These costs create an oligopoly in the import market, leading to higher prices and limited sourcing options for essential agricultural inputs. Despite the enormous challenges, a handful of resourceful entrepreneurs have implemented successful business models. Clustering emerges as a key strategy of successful entrepreneurs, particularly around major cities like Port Moresby and Lae. Proximity to urban markets grants poultry producers im- proved access to essential inputs like feed and day-old-chicks (DOCs). Additionally, producers can di- rectly sell their chickens and eggs to consumers or collectors / aggregators. In addition, these clusters foster a unique environment for knowledge sharing among all nodes in the value chain. Despite better access to inputs and markets near major cities, the scale of individual (household) poul- try production remains limited, typically hovering around fifty to one hundred chickens per household per cycle (each cycle is about 6 weeks). Producers who used to manage largescale out-grower opera- tions (several thousand chickens per cycle) have scaled back their production citing high transport costs, which require producers to sell directly to collectors or consumers, compounded with high feed costs. Without personal vehicles, producers rely on public transport, restricting them to transporting only fifteen chickens at a time in sacks. Selling 100 birds may require over a week of back-and-forth transport, raising concerns about undo feed costs if the chickens aren't sold promptly after reaching maturity. Contract farming offers a potential solution, connecting small producers with larger buyers like hotels, hospitals, and schools, who require a stable supply. However, ensuring a stable supply requires cold storage – a significant hurdle due to frequent power outages and expensive generators. Traditional, smaller-scale aggregators often find these risks cost prohibitive. One entrepreneur found an innovative approach by acquiring a U.S brand generator from Alibaba, which allowed him to establish a centralized slaughterhouse with cold storage. This entrepreneur sub- contracts poultry production to neighboring producers, consolidating their output and streamlining deliv- ery to larger buyers. While this entrepreneur has managed to bypass certain constraints through inde- pendently investing in reliable power supply, it does not negate the importance of government provision of basic infrastructure, particularly stable electricity and improved road connections. While this study focuses on PNG, the reported findings hold relevance for understanding the formation of agricultural value chains in other developing countries facing similar challenges, including poor infra- structure and a heavy reliance on external markets for intermediate goods. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows. The following section discusses the methodology employed to evaluate key challenges and opportunities for the PNG poultry value chain. Section 3 presents the key insights from our focus group exercise with poultry producers, input suppliers, and poultry retailers. Section 4 con- cludes. The detailed interview notes are attached as an appendix. METHODOLOGY To delve into the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG's poultry value chain, we employ a "growth diagnostic" approach pioneered by Rodrik (2010). This method recognizes that each country 4 faces specific obstacles to growth, and there's no one-size-fits-all solution. By applying this approach, we aim to uncover crucial "ground truths" about the sector and inform tailored policy recommendations for its development. Our approach involves 4 key steps. First, we reviewed existing resources, including both published and unpublished studies, related to the sector. We evaluated PNG consumption trends of animal-sourced food including poultry, and compared the price of chicken, eggs, and feed ingredients imported by PNG with nearby countries. Second, we conducted a set of interviews with sector experts (e.g. from FSA, NARI and the Poultry In- dustry Association) to identify key poultry production clusters to visit during a more in-depth, structured interview exercise. These initial interviews also aided in creating a preliminary value chain map. Figure 1: Main locations of poultry value chain stakeholders surveyed Source: Authors compiled based on the survey locations in the suburban area of Lae. Third, during October and November 2023, we visited the identified poultry production clusters and in- terviewed stakeholders within every node of the value chain along the entirety of the Highlands highway in PNG, with a focus on the suburban area of Lae, where the main feed and DOC supplier and the large commercial enterprises are located (Figure 1). Structured interviews were conducted with 22 stakeholders, and their insights were meticulously documented in a structured data entry form. For each stage of production, we interviewed multiple stakeholders to corroborate their viewpoints. Our core questions explored personal background, operations, major challenges, and relationships with other actors (competitors, customers, suppliers, and government agencies). These in-depth interviews helped to refine the value chain map and gain a more detailed understanding of the sector's dynamics. 5 The detailed interview transcripts are provided in the Appendix with respondents’ names having been replaced with fictitious names to preserve anonymity. We also conducted textual analyses on the inter- view transcripts to visualize the most common risks that the poultry sector individuals identified during the focus groups. Fourth, we presented our findings to diverse stakeholders (e.g., NARI, University of Goroka, and the Institute of National Affairs) to obtain informed expert advice to validate and enrich the findings. CONTEXT OF THE PNG POULTRY SECTOR Consumption of animal-sourced food in PNG Both the 2018 PNG Rural Survey on Food Systems and the 2023 PNG Rural Household survey con- ducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute indicate that rural Papua New Guineans are not consuming sufficient protein to meet recommended intake levels (Schmidt et al., 2024, 2022). Using the Indonesia Food Based Dietary Guideline (FBDG), Schmidt et al. (2022) developed a recommended diet table tailored to PNG to allow comparisons between recommended food group intake and actual food consumption (Figure 2). The recommended daily quantity of protein-rich foods is 250 grams per adult-equivalent, whereas the surveyed households in the 2018 survey only consumed 175 grams, re- vealing a concerning 30 percent deficit. Figure 2: Quantity (grams) consumed of each food group, per adult equivalent/day Source: Authors’ calculations using the 2018 PNG Rural Survey on Food Systems. Note: We convert every food item into food group equivalent grams and associated nutrient composition using the recommended diet and food composition tables. In 2023, IFPRI conducted a rural household survey across 14 provinces that aimed to understand household consumption trends. A recent report (Schmidt et al., 2024) publishing descriptive results suggests that fish, pork, and chicken are the three most important protein-rich foods in rural areas (Fig- ure 3). Higher income households allocate a greater share of their expenditure to chicken and pork and 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Staples Vegetables Fruits Protein-rich foods Oil Q u a n ti ty ( e q u iv a le n t g ra m s ) Recommended diet Survey sample 6 a lower share to fish compared to less affluent households, implying that chicken is perceived as a fa- vorable yet relatively costly protein-rich food. The most recent Household Income Expenditure Survey 2009/10 (HIES 2009/10) also reports the same three main protein-rich foods in PNG in both rural and urban settings, revealing that animal source food consumption remains an important source of protein (Figure A1). Figure 3: Expenditure share of protein-rich foods by food item and consumption-expenditure quintile Source: Authors’ calculations from the 2023 PNG Rural Household survey. Note: The household quintiles are defined based on the overall household’s per-adult-equivalent consumption expenditure, with Q1 being the lowest quintile and Q5 being the highest quintile. Prices of chicken and eggs in PNG and nearby countries Considering that chicken and eggs are commonly recognized as an affordable source of protein-rich food (OECD-FAO, 2022) compared to other animal-sourced foods in neighboring countries, we conduct a comparative analysis of poultry retail prices in Table 1. Chicken and eggs are more expensive in the Pacific Islands countries than in other regions. The price of a whole chicken in PNG is 27 percent lower than in the Solomon Islands, but it is 13 percent higher than in Fiji. Compared to Australia and the US, the price of a whole chicken in PNG is about 50 percent higher. When compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries, the price of a whole chicken in PNG is about three times that of Indonesia, and about double that of Malaysia and the Philippines. The price of eggs follows a similar price pattern. For example, the price of eggs in PNG is about twice that of Indo- nesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. 18 13 11 17 18 22 16 9 13 15 14 19 33 34 42 37 36 27 14 20 17 15 13 12 19 25 18 16 18 20 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% All Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 S h a re o f to ta l p ro te in -r ic h f o o d s Pork Chicken Fish Tinned fish Others 7 Table 1: Price of Eggs and Chicken Meat of PNG and nearby countries in 2024. Note: (1) The prices of eggs are mainly sourced from 'Cost of Living ' in 2024 on https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/. The reported egg price of PNG in the ‘Cost of Living’ (2024) is the same as what we observed in PNG. The price of eggs of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Australia are also closed to their values on https://www.globalproductprices.com/rankings/egg_prices/. (2) The price of eggs and chicken meat fluctuated significantly in the U.S. in the last 2 years due to the shortages, so the average monthly egg price of the last 12 months from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was used. (3) The prices of eggs of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Australia are mainly sourced from https://www.globalproductprices.com/rankings/egg_prices/. (4) The price of chicken of Fiji is sourced from an online store (https://www.mh.com.fj). (5) The price of chicken of Solomon Islands is sourced from https://www.selinawamucii.com/insights/prices/solomon- islands/chicken-meat/. Costs of feed and DOC in PNG and nearby countries As the high prices of chicken and eggs are likely related to their high production costs, we compared the retail prices of feed and DOC, the two primary cost components in PNG, with those in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines in Table 2. Feed normally accounts for about three-quarters of the total production costs for full-grown broilers in most countries. The retail price of feed in PNG is about 25 to 50 percent higher than in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, while the retail price of DOC in PNG is about 50 to 100 percent higher. These substantial disparities in feed and DOC prices contribute to the higher price of chicken and eggs in PNG. Many countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines in Southeast Asia, import a large amount of feed ingredients (e.g. maize/corn, wheat, soybean) to produce feed. We compare PNG’s unit values of feed ingredient imports with those of nearby countries. Wheat and soybean have been the two main imported ingredients used by PNG feed mills. The unit values of wheat and soya bean im- ported by PNG are both about 10 percent higher than Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Fur- thermore, the unit value of soya-bean oilcake imported by PNG is about 25 percent higher than that of nearby countries. Analyzing the unit values of imported feed ingredients (in Table 3) together with the retail prices of complete feed (in Table 2) in PNG and nearby countries, the relatively higher unit values of imported feed ingredients in PNG contributes to the comparatively high retail price of feed. Egg (USD/dozen) Whole dressed chicken (USD/kg) PNG's egg price over other countries' (%) PNG's chicken price over other countries' (%) PNG 3.6 6.6 100 100 Indonesia 1.6 2.1 228 316 Malaysia 1.8 3.1 203 213 Philippines 2.1 3.6 177 184 Fiji 2.6 5.9 139 113 Solomon Islands 5.7 9.1 64 73 Australia 3.9 4.6 93 144 U.S.A. 2.5 4.3 145 154 8 Table 2: Retail prices of complete feed and DOC in broiler chicken production of PNG and nearby countries Note: (1) The costs of the stock feed and DOC of PNG are collected from authors' field visits in 2023. (2) The prices of feed and DOC of the other countries are based on the following online sources and being cross-checked with other additional sources. Indonesia feed: https://www.tridge.com/news/feed-prices-soar-gopan-is-worried-that-chicken-mea. Indonesia DOC: https://chickin.id/blog/cara-memilih-doc- ayam-broiler-yang-berkualitas/. Malaysia feed: https://themalaysianreserve.com/2023/03/23/analysts-call-for-govt-support-on-domestic-poul- try-feed-industry/. Malaysia DOC: https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/688283. Philippines feed: https://agrilife.ph/product/proboost-vp-1000/. Philippines DOC: https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Livestock%20and%20Poul- try%20Update%202023_Manila_Philippines_RP2023-0040.pdf. (3) It is assumed that it takes 4.5 kg of feed for each broiler before harvest in every country. (4) The prices of feed and DOC of the other nearby Pacific Islands countries are not available online. Table 3: Unit values of imported main feed ingredients of PNG and nearby countries between 2013 and 2022 Source: BACI trade data (accessed in 2024). Note: The import values and unit values of all various years were all converted to the 2022 price level using the import unit value index from World Development Indicators. Feed (USD/kg) Feed (USD/bird) DOC (USD/bird) PNG's feed price over other countries' (%) PNG's DOC price over other countries' (%) PNG 0.86 3.88 1.28 100 100 Indonesia 0.59 2.66 0.66 146 194 Malaysia 0.62 2.80 0.72 139 176 Philippines 0.68 3.06 0.81 127 158 Imported feed in- gredients Countries Value of import (million USD) Quantity of import (thousand tons) Unit value of im- port (USD/kg) PNG's unit values over other countries' (%) Wheat PNG 538 2,283 0.24 100 Wheat Indonesia 20,200 94,970 0.21 111 Wheat Malaysia 3,392 15,307 0.22 106 Wheat Philippines 12,100 55,208 0.22 108 Soya bean PNG 2 4 0.46 100 Soya bean Indonesia 9,437 23,614 0.40 114 Soya bean Malaysia 2,800 6,901 0.41 113 Soya bean Philippines 659 1,621 0.41 112 Soya-bean oilcake PNG 39 89 0.44 100 Soya-bean oilcake Indonesia 15,800 44,933 0.35 125 Soya-bean oilcake Malaysia 4,354 12,740 0.34 129 Soya-bean oilcake Philippines 5,388 15,246 0.35 124 9 Poultry (broiler chicken) value chain mapping Figure 4 illustrates the mapping for small-scale poultry producers (typically raising 50 to 100 chickens), which are common across different regions and dominate the broiler chicken sector in PNG. Particularly in rural areas and the areas distant from Lae, small-scale producers are the main suppliers of live chicken. Some small-scale producers that we interviewed in the Lae area downsized from medium- scale out-growers, previously raising over 2,000 chickens for large commercial enterprises, to small- scale producers following the 2020/21 down-scaling of the out-grower program in the Lae area. Figure 4: Value chain mapping for small-scale poultry business Note: The local small-scale feed mills in dash rectangles are in the early stage of their business and are not yet supplying feed to smallholder poultry farmers but they plan to do so in the future. Regardless of their location, small-scale producers predominantly rely on the DOCs and feed from the poultry and feed enterprises in Lae. These enterprises distribute their DOCs and feed through third- party chain input shops in major cities. Due to limited supply and high costs of DOCs in areas distant from Lae, a few regional hatcheries (e.g. Gazelle, and CLTC) supply some DOCs locally to fill the gap. With small-scale production, the producers typically limit their sales to nearby markets or farm gate ag- gregators over the course of one to two weeks. A few key constraints impede them from scaling up, which we will discuss in the next section. Figure 5 depicts the mapping for medium-scale poultry producers. Thanks to their larger scale of opera- tion, medium-scale producers are capable of directly supplying chicken to more diverse and larger- scale customers, including catering services, schools, and chain restaurants. One business that we in- terviewed manages its own marketing on Facebook to reach a wider and more distant customer base. 10 However, the scale of these businesses is not large enough to become a consistent supplier for a su- permarket chain. Figure 5: Value chain mapping for medium-scale poultry business Note: The actors represented in dash rectangles are in the early stages of collaboration with the medium-scale poultry business. For example, a medium-scale poultry business is in the process of applying approval from NAQIA to import feed from additional countries. Processing chicken allows for transporting large volumes and avoids the risks of ongoing feed costs associated with slow sales of mature live chicken (Amanor-Boadu et al., 2016). However, processing requires slaughtering equipment and cold storage facilities, which pose a significant challenge for me- dium-scale poultry producers in PNG due to the high costs of infrastructure and technology, and a gen- eral lack of information and extension support. One business we interviewed overcame this barrier by using an international online platform to directly purchase from equipment sellers. This platform also offered insulated packaging solutions, allowing customers in remote locations to maintain the freshness of purchased, processed chicken. Medium-scale poultry producers typically benefit from economies of scale, allowing them to negotiate bulk purchases of DOCs and feed at lower prices. While some businesses managed to secure dis- counts for the DOCs directly from hatcheries, obtaining favorable deals from feed suppliers remains a challenge. In response, one producer we interviewed contacted international feed suppliers and re- ceived a price quote at a lower rate than the domestic feed. However, successfully importing feed re- quires navigating regulations and securing approval from the National Agriculture Quarantine and In- spection Authority (NAQIA). 11 Medium-scale poultry businesses contribute to local employment by hiring workers for various tasks, including raising and processing chicken. Additionally, medium-scale businesses partner with small- scale producers through contract farming. This collaboration benefits both parties. Medium-scale busi- nesses harness greater production capacity, while small-scale producers receive access to cheaper inputs and a guaranteed market for their products, ultimately facilitating their own growth. One medium-scale poultry business we interviewed successfully secured a grant from an international donor to expand operations. The entrepreneur learned about the opportunity from a previous job in Fiji. Entrepreneurs of medium-scale poultry businesses often access a wealth of information on production, marketing, and finance through market interactions with a wider portfolio of business partners, govern- ment actors and, in some cases, NGOs. Additionally, they often maintain strong connections with both upstream and downstream actors in the value chain, empowering them to innovate and devise efficient strategies to overcome various bottlenecks. Figure 6 shows the value chain mapping for two large-scale poultry enterprises in Lae. They operate as vertically integrated poultry businesses, managing the entire production cycle from producing their own DOCs and feed, to processing chickens in their own facilities before supplying supermarkets and other commercial buyers. While one of the enterprises used to collaborate with a large number of out-grow- ers, it has downsized the out-grower program. The highly vertical integration enables the large-scale enterprises to produce chicken efficiently and supply substantial quantities of frozen chicken to PNG, particularly in urban areas. In addition, they serve as the primary suppliers of DOCs for other small and medium-scale poultry producers across PNG, thus playing a crucial role in the country's poultry sector. Figure 6: Value chain mapping for commercial large-scale poultry business 12 Word frequency of the interview transcripts Focus group interviews provide a rich and detailed understanding of a specific topic, however summa- rizing this depth of information into key takeaways often proves challenging. To capture major topics discussed repeatedly throughout the interviews, we use Word Cloud graphs to visualize the most com- mon concerns raised by respondents. Focusing on four key aspects of the poultry value chain identified during the literature review stage of our growth diagnostic study – production, marketing, collaboration, and main challenges – each word cloud graph presents the top 100 frequent words from the interview transcripts related to each aspect. Notably, “feed” emerged as the most frequently used word in all four aspects (Figure 7). To create a word cloud that describes the major topics related to poultry production in PNG, we limited the analysis to take into account only the focus group questions that asked specifically about chicken rearing, including those that explored input use (e.g. DOCs and feed), input procurement, and feeding practices. Feed was discussed more frequently than the other inputs, such as DOCs, chicken sheds/houses, and water. High mortality rate due to heat stress also emerged as a significant chal- lenge. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less attention than production. We gener- ated a word cloud using interview responses on marketing methods, location, time period, and difficul- ties of selling chickens. Many respondents highlighted that they need to increase the selling price of chicken due to increased feed costs. They also often brought up the difficulties and expenses associ- ated with transporting their chickens to the markets, a primary obstacle for producers seeking to ex- pand their operations. It is often assumed that poultry producers primarily compete with one another. To explore potential col- laborations, we asked a series of questions about interactions with other poultry producers and organi- zations. The "collaboration" word cloud aligns with respondent reports of frequently accessing infor- mation from local input shops (e.g., Farmset) and sharing knowledge about feed and feed alternatives. Therefore, collaborations do exist among poultry producers despite they also compete with each other on selling chickens. Our final word cloud is generated based on responses to the interview questions regarding the overall challenges in the poultry business. Unsurprisingly, high feed cost dominates the reported challenges given it accounts for about two-thirds of the total cost of production. In addition, low or unreliable local demand or market access emerged as common challenges. Overall, the main key words in the four graphs align with the initial puzzles we identified in PNG’s poul- try value chain, as discussed in the next section. 13 Figure 7: Word Cloud based on the interview transcripts Production Marketing/sales Collaboration Challenges 14 PUZZLES, CONSTRAINTS, AND OPPORTUNITIES Intriguing puzzles and binding constraints within the PNG poultry value chain By examining both apparent and underlying obstacles faced by PNG poultry producers, we unearthed several intriguing puzzles within the value chain. These puzzles force us to think about the core chal- lenges to developing targeted policy recommendations for effective intervention. What motivates poultry producers to persist in utilizing expensive stock feed? Ensuring quality livestock through high-cost feed The high cost of stock feed is a recurring complaint among poultry producers in our interviews and among documented literature, which prompts a critical question: Why do producers continue to pur- chase expensive feed when exploring more economical alternatives might be beneficial? Adopting costly stock feed is reasonable based on Kremer’s (1993) O-ring theory. Chicken farming is a high-input and high-output activity characterized by a series of critical steps, from purchasing DOCs to feeding chickens, and ultimately selling chickens. Each step within the 6-week production cycle is cru- cial for success. Missteps at any point can drastically reduce both productivity and profits. The O-ring theory posits that in interdependent processes, the strength of the entire chain is limited by its weakest link. Applied to chicken farming, this suggests that even high-quality inputs in some areas (e.g., expen- sive DOCs or chicken sheds) won't guarantee success if another stage, such as feed, is compromised. Focus group conversations uncovered that many producers prefer the more expensive brand, believing it leads to healthier and heavier chickens. Therefore, it is reasonable for the small-scale poultry produc- ers to choose costly commercial stock feed to ensure healthy chickens, given their substantial invest- ments in other inputs (such as chicken sheds and DOCs). Limited options and knowledge of feed and feed alternatives for PNG poultry producers Complete feed (which includes all components for livestock feed) is expensive in PNG compared to neighboring countries. Additionally, it can only be purchased from select feed mills in Lae. Unlike other countries, where poultry feed concentrates (mixed with local staples for cost reduction) are available for purchase, Lae's feed mills don't produce feed concentrates for sale. Despite proposals for small-scale regional feed mills circulating for over a decade, this sector has seen sluggish development. Currently, only a handful of small PNG businesses are venturing into this space. However, none have yet achieved commercial viability to supply nearby poultry producers with locally produced feed. Another potential option for supplementing animal feed is using raw agricultural and agro-industrial by- products as cost-effective feed supplements. While if practiced improperly, these supplements can have negative, anti-nutritional factors that can reduce nutrient availability and digestibility among chicken, feed mixing is a common practice in many countries (Yafetto et al., 2023). Fermentation has been a successful strategy to reduce these anti-nutritional factors in various feed systems around the region. Examples include fermented banana stalks in the Philippines and Thailand (Mikkelson, 2015), sweet potato vines and cassava leaves in Uganda (Kabirizi et al., 2017) and Vietnam (Ly et al., 2010), 15 and sago waste in Malaysia (Lani et al., 2021). However, PNG poultry producers lack awareness of these strategies, hindering their ability to prepare and utilize local ingredients to reduce feed costs. The above constraints shed light on why PNG poultry producers persist in utilizing costly stock feed, which drives up consumer prices of chicken and eggs. Why do most poultry producers opt to raise only 50 or 100 chickens (1 or 2 boxes of DOC)? Most poultry producers that we interviewed across various regions of PNG limit their production to 50 or 100 chickens (from 1 or 2 boxes of DOCs) per cycle. Even producers who once managed 2,000 chick- ens as out-growers for commercial poultry enterprises have downsized to about 100 chickens after the termination of their contract farming agreement. Some producers invested a large amount of money in building large chicken sheds for contract farming purposes but are currently only utilizing a small corner of the shed, leaving idle the remainder of the shed space. The primary reason for most poultry producers being small-scale is related to the practical limitation on sales volume. The vast majority rely on direct sales either at their farmgate or local markets. A key constraint to expanding production is tied to logistical constraints. After 6 weeks, when the chicken is mature, small-scale producers normally transport around 15 chickens in sacks using wheelbarrows or on foot to nearby daily markets, occasionally taking a public motorized vehicle (PMV) to reach further markets. Therefore, it takes about a week to sell 100 chickens. Raising more than 100 chickens would entail longer selling periods, resulting in higher feed costs as the feed conversion ratio worsens for ma- ture chickens. Thus, raising large flocks would be challenging without personal vehicles. One way to avoid feed waste after chickens reach maturity is to slaughter and process the meat upon maturity. However, this requires access to slaughtering and storage facilities with consistent reliable electricity. Currently, this type of infrastructure would require a substantial investment beyond the means of small- and medium-scale producers. Therefore, restricted by transportation, market size, and lack of processing and storage facilities, poultry producers tend to maintain production size within 100 chickens in a cycle. Potential suited solutions to the key constraints after diagnoses The above analysis represents the initial stage of the “growth diagnostics” framework (Rodrik, 2010), pinpointing the key binding constraints of the PNG poultry value chain. The next step is to identify con- text-specific solutions to alleviate these constraints. Clustering can be an alternative method to address various constraints for the PNG poultry value chain Better access to markets (both input and sales), facilitated learning from others, and labor pooling are the three most noted features of positive externalities in clusters (Marshall, 1920). Poultry clusters have developed in the Lae area in the incipient stage, driven both naturally by geographical advantages and initiatives such as the poultry out-grower programs. Producers are attracted to clusters around Lae due to its proximity to feed mills, feed ingredient cultivation sites (e.g., maize/corn), hatcheries, and urban 16 markets. This proximity allows them to benefit from lower input costs and higher consumer demand compared to other regions of the country. Even businesses with competitive relationships can benefit from clustering due to the potential for co- operation. Studies in other countries suggest that cooperation within clusters likely reduces the opera- tional cost for businesses, further attracting new entrants to the sector. For example, in Bangladesh’s fish clusters, fish farmers in highly clustered areas were more likely to share tools, vehicles, labor and trading information than those in less clustered areas (Zhang et al., 2019). In the case of PNG’s poten- tial poultry clusters, small-scale poultry producers could benefit by sharing expensive equipment like vehicles and by accessing slaughtering service and cold storage facilities offered by specialized service providers or larger producers at lower cost. This would facilitate expansion of small-scale producers. With a high concentration of poultry producers in a cluster, the increased demand would naturally at- tract specialized service providers. A stable supply for large orders is crucial for business growth, but there's often a mismatch between available supply and demand. A common strategy to address this challenge is outsourcing orders to nearby small producers within clusters. Clustering facilitates outsourcing because member businesses normally have closer relationships and greater trust (Fleisher et al., 2010). The dilemma in PNG’s cur- rent poultry sector is that small-scale producers typically raise only 50 to 100 chickens per cycle, while medium-scale producers often struggle to achieve consistent or sufficient volume for formal contracts (e.g. supermarket). Such a dilemma is more likely to be resolved organically within a value chain clus- ter. The focus group exercise presented here interviewed a medium-scale poultry producer who lacked sufficient production capacity outsourced orders to nearby smaller producers. However, this medium- scale producer lacks additional cold storage capacity and cash flow to further expand. Clustering can also ease financial constraints when businesses establish and operate their business, even in the absence of a well-functioning capital market (Ali et al., 2014). Some transactions within clusters can happen in the form of trust-based trade credit, which can greatly ameliorate working capital constraints. This arrangement enables small-scale poultry producers to access costly inputs (e.g. DOCs and feeds) without paying full upfront payment. Obtaining a formal bank loan is not easy in PNG, especially for businesses lacking capital. Therefore, clustering can act as an alternative avenue for poultry businesses to circumvent credit constraints. PNG boasts numerous poultry entrepreneurs who have been innovatively overcoming challenges within their businesses. By collaborating in clusters, these entrepreneurs can leverage their combined re- sources and skills for mutual benefit (Xu and Zhang, 2009). For example, poultry producers we inter- viewed near Lae with prior experience as extension officers in the out-grower program have helped newcomers to launch their poultry farming businesses. This example highlights the role of knowledge spillovers in cluster formation, a feature widely observed in clusters in other countries (Omondi, 2022). Clusters can also mitigate both technical and capital barriers to enter the poultry value chain (Fleisher et al., 2010). With established knowledge and expertise, Lae’s poultry clusters have the potential to be- come future resources for other regions. 17 Targeted support for large and medium-scale poultry producers / key aggregators While clustering seems to be a promising strategy for PNG’s poultry value chain, joint action is crucial to facilitate the development of poultry clusters. Some of the existing bottlenecks, such as lack of elec- tricity and slaughtering houses and cold storage facilities are beyond the capacity of individual small poultry farmers. Local government can play a key role in the provision of public goods essential for clustered private firms (Zhang, 2023). Since cluster formation is an ongoing process, encountering various binding constraints along the way is to be expected. Thus, the incentives of local leaders need to be aligned with local economic devel- opment. If this is not feasible in the short run, a more viable option is to encourage non-government or- ganizations to play a more active role in initiating joint action (Zhang, 2023). For example, developing and expanding producer associations might be needed to lead joint action initiatives. Clusters typically require only a few specialized service providers, such as those for slaughtering and storage, to cater the needs of small and medium-scale producers. However, attracting these special- ized providers may be difficult in the short term. An alternative approach in the near future could involve leveraging existing medium-scale poultry enterprises to offer these services to nearby smaller busi- nesses. This approach is inspired by successful models in other countries, where larger producers of- ten play a leading role by outsourcing orders and providing support services to nearby smallholders (e.g. Bah and Gajigo, 2019; Omondi, 2022; USAID, 2013). While PNG currently has a limited number of medium-scale poultry businesses, a selection is already offering slaughtering and cold storage ser- vices. Although leveraging existing medium-scale businesses offers advantages, it also introduces ad- ditional complexities. These businesses would need to manage slaughtering, cold storage, and their core production activities, potentially increasing costs and operational challenges. Finally, reducing barriers to importing essential poultry production and processing equipment is crucial for stimulating production outside of Lae. Our interviews revealed limited knowledge about equipment import procedures among non-Lae businesses, despite their keen interest. Government or NGO assis- tance in providing information and training on equipment importation could significantly ease this bottle- neck. The government could even consider adopting a successful model from Indonesia, where their self-made feed program provided small feed-making machine packages for grinding and pelleting, ena- bling more farmers to produce their own feed using locally available ingredients (Bulkini, 2023). Strategies to lower feed cost Unlike many countries that capitalize on lower prices by importing bulk feed ingredients (e.g., Brazil and USA), PNG lags in this area. A potential solution lies in simplifying import regulations and fostering competition for feed imports. This could allow producers to access more cost-effective complete feed from neighboring countries. Decreasing feed price imports could immediately reduce pressure on me- dium and small-scale producers, potentially increasing poultry production and aligning with the govern- ment’s objective of boosting domestic livestock production and achieving self-sufficiency. While cost-effective local feed resources are widely utilized in many countries, PNG's poultry producers remain largely unaware of this option. Our interviews revealed a heavy reliance on commercially pur- chased complete feed, with only a few former extension officers incorporating local ingredients like co- conut meat, moringa leaves, and cassava flour. To bridge this knowledge gap and encourage adoption, 18 research institutions can play a critical role. For example, the University of Goroka is currently conduct- ing trials on using elephant (Napier) grass as feed. Additionally, the research can be expanded to in- clude other fermented local agricultural (by)products, such as sweet potato vines, coconut meat, ba- nana stalks, and cassava leaves, which have been studied and successfully employed in nearby South- east Asian countries. Disseminating research findings through comprehensive information campaigns, guideline formulation and dissemination, and training programs can equip producers with the knowledge and skills to incorporate local feed alternatives into their poultry diets. CONCLUSIONS Poultry plays a vital role in PNG's food security and nutrition outcomes, offering a critical source of ani- mal protein to both urban and rural inhabitants. Despite immense potential for domestic production, the sector faces numerous challenges. By applying the growth diagnostic framework, we have pinpointed key bottlenecks hindering the growth of poultry producers of various sizes. Our analysis suggests that cluster development and targeted interventions to address these missing links hold the key to unlocking rapid growth and a more robust poultry value chain in PNG. Furthermore, at the macro policy level, streamlining regulations for importing key feed ingredients can provide a significant boost to domestic feed production. At more local levels, targeted support is essential to incentivize and support small and medium size producers to increase output. This paper has identified a variety of constraints that are not uncommon to other countries in the region. In doing so, we have provided examples of how other countries have overcome these challenges, including leveraging existing medium-scale poultry enterprises to offer slaughtering and storage services, facilitating import access for necessary equipment for poultry pro- duction both online and offline, and expanding research into fermented local agricultural (by)products and dissimilating to incorporate local feed alternatives into poultry diets. 19 ABOUT THE AUTHORS Peixun Fang is a Senior Research Analyst in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit of International Food Policy Research Institute. Harry Gimiseve is a research consultant for the International Food Policy Research Institute in PNG. Rishabh Mukherjee is a Research Analyst in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit of the International Food Policy Research Institute. Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit of the International Food Policy Research Institute. Xiaobo Zhang is a Senior Research Fellow in Development Strategies and Governance Unit of the In- ternational Food Policy Research Institute, and Chair Professor of Economics at Peking University, based in both Beijing and Washington, DC. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Funding for this work was provided by the Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australia High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, and the Australian Center for Interna- tional Agricultural Research (ACIAR). We would also like to acknowledge the support in organizing in- terviews by the Farmers & Settlers Association, the National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI), the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA), and the University of Goroka. Finally, we thank the interviewed stakeholders in the poultry value chain, who answered our questions and shared their insights and perspectives in the sector. This publication has been prepared as an output of the Papua New Guinea - Agriculture, Food and Nu- trition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP) and has not been independently peer reviewed. Any opin- ions expressed here belong to the author(s) and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by IFPRI or program funders. REFERENCES Adam Smith International, 2018. Evaluation of New Zealand’s Country Programme in PNG: Part III - linking farmers to markets, New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Ali, M., Peerlings, J., Zhang, X., 2014. Clustering as an organizational response to capital market inefficiency: Evidence from microenterprises in Ethiopia. Small Business Economics 43, 697–709. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11187-014-9555-7/TABLES/6 Amanor-Boadu, V., Nti, F., Ross, K., 2016. Structure of Ghana’s chicken industry in 2015, researchgate.netV Amanor-Boadu, FK Nti, K RossMETSS. October, 2016•researchgate.net. Bah, E.-H., Gajigo, O., 2019. 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The poor households are defined as the bottom 40 percent of the consumption expenditure distribution and the non-poor are the top 60 percent. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Poor Non-poor Poor Non-poor Urban Rural Pork Poultry Tinned meat Fish and seafood 22 A2. Detailed interview transcripts [Respondents’ names have been replaced with fictitious names to preserve anonymity.] Interview 1: Small-scale feed producer – Max Location: Jiwaka Province Introduction and Basic Information Max, an agricultural extension officer based in the Jiwaka province, strongly advocates for utilizing local ingredients in the production of affordable poultry feed. After graduating from a reputable college in Pa- pua New Guinea, Max further honed his expertise during a six-month livestock and feed technology training in Australia, followed by a four-month training on rice milling technology in China. These inter- national ventures proved to be enlightening experiences, providing Max with valuable insights into feed knowledge and equipment for livestock farming. Inputs Max is presently engaged in an innovative venture on self-formulated feed for village chickens. The in- gredients include maize/corn, soybean, cassava, sweet potatoes, sorghum, and fish fingerlings. The experiment has yielded success, evidenced by his chickens attaining comparable weights to those fed with commercial stock feed. Max envisions the potential to market his formula to the nearby poultry farmers in the future. In the near future, he plans to use his homemade feed to raise his broilers and layers so that his broilers and eggs can be cheaper than the others in the market. The costliest aspect for him would lie in procuring protein ingredients. Although he currently relies on fingerlings from his personal fish pond, the quantity may prove insufficient for large-scale production. Max recognizes the potential for increased soybean cultivation among nearby farmers to meet the de- mand for plant-sourced protein. Interestingly, he is unaware of alternative protein sources, such as the experimental use of elephant (Napier) grass at the University of Goroka and in the Highlands region. Despite these considerations, Max estimates that his homemade feed is more cost-effective than the commercial stock feed in the market. In order to elevate the scale of his feed production, Max recognizes the need for machinery upgrades. Currently reliant on a manual mincer, he envisions incorporating a pellet machine to enhance efficiency. Additionally, the labor-intensive hand mixing of ingredients necessitates the acquisition of a mixer, re- placing the current manual process. Recognizing the inefficiency of sun-drying, which is susceptible to weather conditions, Max aims to integrate a drier into his production process. Drawing from insights gained during his international trips, Max not only acquired knowledge about the specific machinery suitable for his needs but also learned effective strategies for sourcing these ma- chines from international suppliers online. This strategic move towards mechanization represents a piv- otal step in optimizing his feed production, ensuring consistency, and mitigating the challenges associ- ated with manual processes and weather-dependent drying methods. Collaboration Max is enthusiastic about disseminating knowledge regarding livestock rearing, diseases, and feeding practices among nearby farmers. Recognizing a widespread gap in understanding within the farming 23 community, he has come to the realization that additional training is not only beneficial but also essen- tial to address the existing knowledge deficit among poultry farmers. Challenges Max's primary obstacle at the moment revolves around accessing the necessary machinery to scale up production. His approach to overcoming this challenge involves exploring online platforms to procure the required machinery from international sources. Interview 2: Poultry Feed Producer/Trainer & Poultry Farmer – Gary Location: Morobe Province Introduction & Basic Information Gary is an independent poultry feed producer. Despite having only completed middle school education, he is highly motivated to create alternatives for commercial feed. In 2005, he received training through an Independent Fellowship scheme (Japan) that sponsored him. Before this, he worked as a teacher at a church school for 20 years, where he provided training on nutrition. The idea of producing his own poultry meal came to him in 2021. To promote his findings and encourage the adoption of the new poultry feed, he published a training guide. This guide instructs farmers on how to make their poultry feed using locally sourced ingredients. He charges 20-50 Kina per person for train- ing. Since 2004, he has trained 6000-7000 farmers. Since he began producing his feed, approximately 2000 farmers have started to follow his methods. He has provided training all over PNG, especially in rural areas of Morobe province, West New Britain, East New Britain, and Bougainville. Own Poultry Farm He owns a personal poultry farm where he exclusively feeds the local feed that he produces. Each day, he utilizes 10 kg to nourish 10 village chickens. The highest weight he has achieved for a 7-month layer is 3.5 kgs. To create his local feed, he cultivates cassava on his farm and occasionally purchases it from the market. His primary objective is to educate fellow farmers, and as a result, he refrains from commer- cially selling his chickens. Instead, he employs the 10 chickens for experiments, testing his feed on them. Apart from village chickens, he occasionally purchases a box of DOCs from Tablebirds or Chemica. If the day-old chickens become sick, he uses moringa leaves soaked in water, a technique he learned from Japanese trainers during his fellowship. This remedy is administered when the chickens experience di- arrhea. In the initial stages, out of 52 chickens, only 4 died—two in the first week and another two in the second week. However, after the third batch, he has experienced no mortality. To maintain warmth for the DOCs, he utilizes kerosene lamps and solar bulbs. Rainwater serves as the water source to feed the chickens. He obtains sawdust from the timber mill, spending 4 Kina per bag. Transportation costs for acquiring sawdust are nonexistent since the sawdust provider is near his house. As an alternative to sawdust, he also utilizes sun-dried banana leaves to prepare the chicken bed. 24 Cleaning the chicken house every 5 days involves changing the leaves and cleaning the litter. The waste is repurposed as manure for his garden. When he sells his chickens, it takes approximately 3 weeks to sell the entire stock. Local Feed To produce a 10 kg bag, he incurs a cost of 30 Kina. The primary protein source is fish bones obtained from the fish mill. The coconut industry cooperation supplies him with their waste, which he utilizes to create the local feed. He initiates feeding starters to his chickens for the first 2 weeks, after which he blends finisher and local feed for the subsequent two weeks. He employs the starter produced by GFI and finisher by Tablebirds. Although he has sold his local feed for 45-50 Kina per box, it's important to note that selling the feed is not his primary motivation. Challenges For him to expand training, he requires additional funds. He employs a meat mincer to palletize the lo- cal feed. His fellow farmers, who are his students, have frequently complained about the availability and cost of the meat mincer. As a poultry farmer, he highlights the challenge of increasing feed prices. Future Goals He wants to have his own farm or a training center where he disseminates his knowledge to other poul- try farmers. He wants to expand knowledge not just for poultry but other livestock too. Interview 3: Small-scale feed producer – Alex Location: Eastern Highland Province Introduction and Basic Information Alex is a crop farmer and also enthusiastic about poultry and fish farming. He got a 6-month scholar- ship in Rabaul Business Studies Institute (in partnership with University of Natural Resources & Envi- ronment) to learn about chicken and fish farming, as well as making chicken and fish feed. After the program, Alex delved into feed formulation trials, resulting in the development of six distinct feed types utilizing locally accessible ingredients. He plans to produce them on a commercial basis in the coming year. Inputs The main ingredients he used for his feed formulation trials include cassava, sorghum, elephant grass, Highlands pitpit, fish meal, and rice bran, among which only fish meal was purchased from input shops, and the others are mostly from his own garden. Rice is increasingly being cultivated in Goroka and the highlands, so Alex can source rice bran at the DAL office in Goroka where they mill rice for small growers. Alex was suggested by the Natural Re- sources Division of the Eastern Highlands Provincial Administration to use elephant grass in his feed formulation, 25 Looking ahead to commercial production, Alex envisions sourcing ingredients from local farmers. Col- laborative agreements with out-growers have been established, ensuring a consistent supply of key components, including sorghum, cassava, elephant grass, Highlands pitpit, and soya bean. Seeking a robust support system, Alex has reached out to his extended family, clan, and tribal network. In addition to the feed ingredients, the other important inputs that Alex has invested include machinery, (3-phase) electricity and chicken sheds. Alex's commitment is evident in the substantial investment of over 44 thousand Kina in these critical resources. His acquisitions, including 2 pelletizers, 1 hammer mill, 1 ingredient mixer, and 1 incubator, were predominantly sourced from Project Support Services in Lae, with the information gained through the National Fisheries Office in Goroka. The inclusion of a so- lar dryer house for feed drying further highlights Alex's dedication to innovative and sustainable prac- tices. The source of the funding is mainly from his own crop farming. Marketing Alex estimated that the price of his feed can be about 15 to 20 percent lower than the commercial stock feed. He plans to mainly serve the local nearby poultry farmers in the beginning. Training Apart from the 6-month scholarship at the Rabaul Business Studies Institute, Alex has actively sought additional training in poultry farming. Notably, he participated in a two-week training program in Goroka, generously funded by the local MP. During this program, participants were instructed on the intricacies of producing local stock feed. During these sessions, Alex gained valuable insights into the advantages of pelletizing feed. Convinced of its merits, he recognizes that pelleting serves as a transformative process, compacting all the ingre- dients into granules. This not only enhances the feed's quality but also facilitates easy packaging and marketability. Alex's commitment to ongoing education underscores his dedication to adopting best practices and optimizing his poultry and fish farming endeavors. Challenges Alex has identified finance as the primary hurdle in scaling up his production. While possessing nearly all the necessary machinery and having honed his feed formulation, he remains challenged by the fi- nancial aspects of expansion. Despite this obstacle, his confidence remains unwavering, grounded in the wealth of experience accumulated through years of dedicated trial and research. Alex's resilience in the face of financial challenges reflects his commitment to advancing his poultry and fish feed enter- prise. Interview 4: Poultry farmer – Don Location: Morobe Province Introduction and Basic Information Don, a former out-grower and contract farmer for Tablebirds, began his journey back in 2008, starting with a traditional sago chicken house. In 2020, he made significant upgrades to his chicken operation, 26 covering his chicken shed with an iron roof and installing a power supply in the area. The construction of the new house cost him a total of 70,000 Kina. Unfortunately, that same year, the out-grower pro- gram was terminated, resulting in substantial financial losses. To fund the construction of the chicken shed, Don had taken a substantial loan of 40,000 Kina from the bank, a debt he's still working to repay three years after the program's closure. When he initially began as an out-grower, he managed 600 birds. After establishing the new house, he completed four cycles, raising 2,000 birds in each cycle. Now that the program has ceased, he man- ages his own poultry farm, raising eight boxes (about 400 birds) of chickens in staggered intervals. He acquires four boxes every three weeks, followed by another four boxes in the subsequent three weeks. Despite having enormous space for more chickens, his production remains limited due to cash flow constraints, outstanding liabilities that affect his working capital expenses, and the limited number of chickens he could market. Input and Production He uses GFI feed as a food source for his chickens. For 1 box of DOCs, he acquires 3 bags of starters and 3 bags of finisher. Sometimes, he mixes cassava flour with his feed to save on the cost of purchas- ing excess feed. Other times, he incorporates lendro and cassava leaves into the feed. He spends 133 Kina on each starter and finisher, buying 8 bags for one cycle. The PMV charges 20 Kina for transport- ing 8 bags and 10 Kina for a round trip. In total, he spends 30 Kina on the transportation of stock feed from the store to his farm. He uses pure water to feed his chickens and has an automatic water system that he installed when building the chicken shed. For his 400 birds, he constructed a chicken house on a platform using wires because he believed that his chickens were getting sick from the soil. However, by doing that, he didn't see any reduction in the mortality rate. In his chicken house, he has designated a small area for brooding where he places his DOCs for two weeks. To keep them warm, he uses two kerosene lamps and an electric bulb. However, this is not suf- ficient for 200 birds. Blackouts are common in his area, and if there is a blackout, it takes about 1 week for the power to be restored. Don went to school till Grade 8. Chicken Sales He primarily sells chickens at the Lae main market and within the local community. Approximately 70% of his stock is sold at the market. It takes him 1 week to sell 200 chickens. He uses string bags to transport the chickens, taking 3 bags for each market visit. The cost of transporting each bag is 5 kina, one-way bus fare is another 5 kina, and the gate fee is 10 kina. Therefore, the total cost of selling 30 chickens in the market is 35 Kina. He sells the chickens at the market for 35 Kina, and the lowest price he can set is 25 Kina. He spends 2500 Kina for 150 birds, covering various expenses such as the cost of feed, transportation, DOCs, and more. Out of the 150 birds, 10-15 die, and he typically sells around 130 birds, resulting in a profit of 2000 Kina per cycle. If the mortality rate is high, he manages to earn a profit of 1500 Kina. 27 Chicken Rearing Recently, he noticed that out of 400 birds, 150 of them died. This has been occurring recently, and he is still trying to determine the cause of death and possible solutions to reduce the high mortality. The deaths typically happen in the 4th or 5th week of the cycle, and he suspects that diarrhea might be the cause. He obtained medicine from Chemica, which has helped him reduce the mortality rate to some extent, at a cost of 60 Kina. It's the first time he has experienced such a high mortality rate, and so far, he hasn't sought assistance to address the issue. As a potential solution, he is trying to slow down his production. Instead of getting 8 boxes, he now gets 4 boxes of DOCs, and he mentions that out of 200 birds, only 30 died. However, the timing of mortality remains consistent, occurring more often at the ma- turity stage. He also faces challenges with predators, especially cats. When the chickens are young, he sleeps near the brooding area for the first two weeks to protect the chicks from cats or snakes. This strategy was recommended by Tablebirds, which he continues to follow. Additionally, after cleaning the chicken house, he uses the manure for his vegetable garden. Training He received all his poultry-related training from Tablebirds' agricultural extension workers, who used to visit his farm and assist him with day-to-day activities. Over the years, he has acquired knowledge about chicken feed, maintaining the right temperature for DOCs, and the essential activities required for raising chickens. Challenges High mortality and transportation issues to the market pose significant challenges for Don. There are instances where the PMV fails to pick him up, preventing him from reaching the market to sell his chick- ens. While he is open to the idea of renting out his chicken shed or converting it into a hostel for visitors, his current financial situation doesn't allow for these options. The burden of repaying his loan is mounting, putting him under substantial pressure. Interview 5: Poultry Farmer – Frank Location: Gabensis, Morobe Province Introduction and Basic Information Frank started on his poultry-raising journey in 2019 with just one box of DOCs. Through the years, he has progressively expanded his poultry production and now manages two boxes of DOCs in one cycle. Before becoming a full-time poultry farmer, Frank worked as an extension officer for Tablebirds, contrib- uting to their out-grower program and got paid 900 kina for two weeks. His responsibilities primarily in- volved training out-growers who raised chickens and supplied them to Tablebirds. Given his background, Frank possesses a distinct knowledge advantage and is well-versed in the technical aspects of chicken rearing. He holds a college degree from the University of Technology in Lae. 28 The out-grower program was terminated because of feed and chicken loss. Tablebirds used to supply DOCs, stock feed, and other essentials to out-growers. However, due to farmer inefficiency and increas- ing costs, Tablebirds discontinued the out-grower program in 2020. Due to the job loss, Frank made the decision to launch his own poultry business. Input and Production Frank raises his chicks in an outdoor chicken house located adjacent to his residence, providing space for up to 100 birds. He relies on the community water supply to provide water for his chickens. Frank sources his DOCs from Chemica, with each box of DOCs typically costing him 250 Kina. However, during the Christmas season, the price rises to 300 Kina per box. The journey to the Chemica store from his farmgate takes approximately 40 minutes, and he pays a one-way bus fare of 5 Kina for his commute. He usually waits for 20-30 minutes along the road to catch the bus or PMV. For chicken bedding, he uses sawdust, which he acquires for free from local individuals involved in timber cutting. As for chicken feed, he primarily utilizes starter and finisher, with costs amounting to 133 Kina and 129 Kina per bag, respectively. He typically visits the Chemica store twice a month to purchase the feed bags. When buying feed bags in bulk, he enlists the assistance of carriers to load the bags onto the bus, paying them 2 Kina per person for their help. To feed two boxes of DOCs, he requires 4 bags of starters and 4 bags of finisher. Additionally, Frank sometimes supplements the feed with grated coconut. However, he doesn't use cas- sava as he neither grows it in his garden nor specially buys it from the market for mixing it with the feed. He began mixing coconut with the feed in 2019 and acquired the knowledge of mixing alternatives like cassava flour and coconut waste with the feed at the NARI agricultural show. Sale For selling his chickens, Frank relies primarily on his community and neighbors. He places a sign in front of his house to signify his intention to sell his chickens. In cases where he encounters difficulty selling his stock within his community, he transports the unsold chickens to the Lae market. Typically, it takes him 2 weeks to sell 100 chickens, but with access to a vehicle, he can accomplish the sales in just 1 week. When he ventures to sell his chickens at the Lae market, Frank hires a PMV for transportation. He utilizes string bags in which he can conveniently carry 6-8 birds at a time. The overall transport expenses en- compass the cost of the PMV fare and the string bags. Specifically, transporting each string bag costs him 6 Kina, and his bus fare amounts to 5 Kina. When he wants to consume his own chicken then he pays for himself separating the business with the personal consumption. For each cycle, his revenue is 3000 Kina, his total cost of raising 100 chickens is 1800 Kina which gives him a profit of 1200 kina. Each year he does 5 cycles. He sells each chicken for 40 Kina and the sale price has increased over the years. A year ago, he sold his chicken for 30 Kina. Due to rising feed cost, the farmers are also increasing the price at which they are selling. 29 He usually sells his chicken on a cash and carry basis, however he sometimes sells them on credit only to those who he trusts. Chicken Rearing He observes a 5% mortality rate among his 100 chickens, primarily due to heat stress. When he notices a chicken is ill, he separates it from the others for treatment. He usually buys medicines for this purpose, but at times he relies on home remedies. The medicines he procures come from Chemica, and they are specifically recommended for starter birds. To keep the DOCs warm, he uses kerosene lamps and solar lamps in the brooding area, as his house lacks access to electricity. Every two weeks, he cleans the chicken house and uses the litter as manure in his vegetable garden. Training and Association He received training during his employment days at Tablebird. He is well versed in taking care of chick- ens. He is not a part of any poultry association and neither has a common whatsapp group that connects all poultry farmers. Nearby farmers come and ask him questions regarding poultry raising. Currently he helps 5 farmers in his community. Biggest Challenge He is concerned about the mortality rate and expresses the availability and accessibility of medicines as a challenge. Expansion He wants to expand production and may plan to rent his neighbors chicken shed provided he has a good sales contract and money to initiate the business. Interview 6: Poultry Farmer – Mason Location: Morobe Province Introduction & Basic Information Mason is a poultry farmer who embarked on the journey of raising broilers in February 2023. Before venturing into poultry farming, he resided in Goroka and operated a roadside market. Following his relo- cation to Nadzab, his wife's family residence, he decided to start his poultry farm. As a newcomer in the poultry farming business, he initially purchases only one box of DOCs from a nearby Chemica store. Remarkably, it takes him just two weeks to sell the entire stock, providing him with a rapid turnover. Input and Production Recognizing the burgeoning demand for chicken in his community, he decided to establish his own poul- try farm. He sought invaluable advice and guidance from a nearby neighbor named Frank, who had previously worked as an agricultural extension worker with Tablebirds. With Frank's assistance, he kick- started his poultry venture, and it took him two weeks to construct his chicken house. He cleverly used 30 the leftover materials from the construction of his new house in Nadzab for the chicken house construc- tion, significantly reducing the costs. The roof, for instance, amounted to approximately 100 Kina. To maintain a warm environment for the DOCs in the chicken house, he acquired a yellow canvas from Chemica. When he receives his DOCs, he lays down the yellow canvas, effectively blocking the wind and ensuring their comfort. For the first two weeks of their lives, the DOCs are housed in a designated brooding area, and by the third week, they are transferred to a larger section of the chicken house. To keep the chickens warm, he relies on kerosene lamps. The procurement of DOCs costs him 250 Kina per box. He exhibits a preference for Tablebirds' DOCs over Zenag's, although due to high demand, Tablebirds are not always available. In such instances, he opts for Zenag. When it comes to feeding his chicks, he favors Flame, a product produced by GFI, which he conveniently purchases from Chemica. He hops on PMV and goes to the town to buy the packets of Flame. To feed a single box of chickens for one cycle, he utilizes five bags of feed: two bags of starter and three bags of finisher. Starters are priced at 133 Kina per bag, while finishers cost him 127 Kina per bag, with each bag weighing 40 kilograms. For the bedding in the chicken house, he procures sawdust from a nearby timber mill at no cost. Sale He initiates the sale of his chickens at the beginning of the 6th week, primarily targeting residents within his community. To ensure the local population is well-informed about his offerings, he displays a promi- nent notice board featuring the sale prices for each chicken. Typically, it takes him around two weeks to successfully vend his entire stock. Initially, his chickens were priced between 30-35 Kina, but owing to the escalating demand, he has adjusted his pricing to a competitive 40 Kina per chicken. He generally adheres to cash-and-carry transactions, extending credit terms only to individuals he trusts. Remarkably, if he personally consumes the chickens he produces, he compensates himself, underscoring his diligent accounting practices. While his primary sales occur within the local community, he is prepared to transport his chickens to the central market in Nadzab if he perceives a limited demand locally. Consequently, irregular demand pre- sents one of the challenges he grapples with. The cost associated with chicken transportation is an ad- ditional expense, necessitating the prompt sale of his chickens to maintain their quality without incurring extra feeding costs. In the span of one cycle, he can accrue earnings in the range of 2000-2500 Kina through chicken sales, translating to a net profit of approximately 1800 Kina (Need cross-check). Over the course of a year, he can execute 5-6 production cycles. Chicken Rearing When asked about the mortality rate, he indicated that out of 50 birds, only two typically die. In cases where he observes illness among the chickens, he segregates the affected ones from the rest of the flock and provides them with separate care. At times, he acquires medication from Chemica, which he admin- isters by mixing it with their drinking water, resulting in the successful recovery of the afflicted birds. Chemica's staff has offered guidance on the proper use of these medications. The cost of this medication amounts to 22 Kina for a 250 ml supply. Additionally, Frank has supplied him with vitamins, which he 31 disperses by mixing them into the chickens' drinking water. Frank also assists him in establishing feeding schedules and optimizing lighting conditions. For instance, during the first week, he only switches off the light for a one-hour period, gradually extending this to two hours during the second week, and finally four hours during the fourth week of the chickens' growth. In terms of feeding, he provides his chickens with three meals a day. On extremely hot days, he adjusts the feeding frequency to mitigate heat stress among the chickens. As a home remedy, he incorporates sun-dried leandro leaves into the poultry feed, promot- ing increased chicken weight. He has gathered knowledge of these home remedies and received training from Frank. His wife, who previously worked for Tablebirds, possesses experience in poultry farming. She actively contributes to Mason's poultry farm, applying the knowledge she acquired during her tenure at Tablebirds. Her training included activities such as egg collection, egg tray arrangement, chicken feeding, and house cleaning. It was her encouragement that motivated her husband to embark on poultry farming. Mason diligently maintains the chicken house, conducting weekly cleaning. The manure collected from the chicken house is repurposed as fertilizer for their vegetable garden. In the initial two weeks following the arrival of DOCs, he sleeps in the chicken house to protect the flock from potential threats such as snakes or cats. Challenges He mentions rising cost of feed and irregularity in demand by customers as his main challenges in raising and selling chickens respectively. Interview 7: Poultry farmer – Donald Location: Morobe Province Introduction & Basic Information Like many poultry farmers in his region, Donald started his poultry farming journey as an outgrower with Tablebirds in 2011. He used to raise poultry for Tablebirds, doing 4-5 cycles per year, starting with 400 birds in each cycle. After the outgrower contract ended, he ventured into poultry farming on his own. Currently, he procures 2 boxes of DOCs per cycle. When he was an outgrower, he used to receive 4000 Kina for each cycle, which was considerably more than what he currently earns as a poultry seller. He now makes a profit of 1000-1500 Kina for 2 boxes of chicks. Starting from last year, he adopted a schedule of raising 2 boxes of chicks in a 3-week interval. Before becoming an outgrower, he worked as a shedman for Tablebirds, which provided him with the necessary training in chicken farming. Originally from East Sepik, he migrated to Lae in 1997 and purchased land there to build his house and the chicken shed. Input and Production He procures boxes of DOCs from the Tablebirds outlet, located 9 miles away from their home. They buy the DOCs for 230 Kina per box at the outlet, which is 20 Kina less than the price retail stores offer. The family spends 10 Kina for the round trip to visit the outlet. 32 He houses his chickens in a chicken shed that he built when he was an outgrower. He constructed the house using his own savings and did not take out a loan. The total cost of building the house in 2018- 2019 was 70,000 Kina. Before 2018, he used to raise his chickens in a traditional sago leaf roof house. Since he is not using the full capacity of the chicken shed, he is looking for tenants who can rent the space. A medium-scale poultry business nearby has expressed interest in either renting their chicken shed or potentially collaborating to have them as an out-grower. He prefers to buy GFI Flame feed. For 100 birds, he uses 7 bags of starter for the first 5 weeks and 1 bag of finisher for the last week. He believes that the essential nutrients to increase the size of the birds are found in the starter, while the finisher helps add meat to the chickens and maintains their condition. He reached this conclusion through his own trials and experiments aimed at optimizing feed use. To purchase the feed, he spends 5 Kina for a one-way trip and travels for 30-40 minutes. They do not mix any other ingredients with the commercial feed because they are concerned that it might harm the birds. When his chickens are ready for sale, they typically weigh between 2-2.5 Kgs. To prepare the chicken bed, he uses sawdust obtained from the local timber shopping area. He pur- chases one bag for 4 Kina and prefers to buy the sawdust bags in bulk, for which he hires a PMV. He spends 40 Kina for one load of 60 bags. Their water source is a nearby well. Chicken Rearing To keep his chickens warm, he uses three kerosene lamps for 100 birds. During the first two weeks, either he or his wife sleeps inside the chicken shed to protect the birds from potential prey attacks and to maintain a warm temperature. Additionally, they have three dogs to scare away thieves and other animals like snakes or cats. These dogs are fed with dead chickens. When he and his wife observe that their birds are sick, they identify and treat them separately. He has experienced a high rate of mortality in the last 2 months, which is why he changed his raising interval from 3 to 4 weeks. This change has reduced the mortality rate to less than 5%. During his time as an aggregator, his birds had a mortality rate of 8%, which was 1% above the company's cutoff limit. The main causes of chicken death are heat stress and diarrhea. He does not hire outside labor to work on his farm because he fears they might steal the feed or the birds. It is mainly him and his wife who take care of the chicken house. Sell He sells the chicken for 30-35 Kina, and has even gone as low as 25 Kina to sell them. He is not con- cerned about the volatility of prices, as he is comfortable with what he earns from chicken sales. This suggests that the farmer is financially stable and may have other sources of income on which he relies. When we asked him about this, we learned that he owns a second-hand 15-seater bus, which he rents out with a driver to provide transportation services in and around Lae. He purchased the bus for 50,000 Kina. He mainly sells the chicken at the Nadzab market, and it takes him 6 days to finish selling 100 birds. He uses a wheelbarrow to transport the chickens to the main market, which takes him 15-20 minutes. He takes 15 chickens per day. Usually, he sells the chickens on a cash-and-carry basis, but he seldom 33 sells them on credit, only to those he trusts. It takes him the whole day to sell 15 chickens, and he in- curs a 5 Kina gate fee to set up his stall. One of the selling challenges he mentioned is facing high competition. However, his chickens some- times have an advantage over others because they weigh more, indicating their quality. Out of the 100 birds, 75% are sold in the market, 15% are locally bought, and 10% are consumed by Donald's family. Collaboration among other farmers There are approximately 20 poultry farmers in his community. When asked about collaboration with them, the farmer mentioned that he shares information about the source of DOCs and feed, for exam- ple, he told them about the outlet. Sometimes, they all discuss topics related to raising chickens. How- ever, this collaboration became less extensive after the out-grower program was suspended. Aside from this, they don't exchange other critical information, sales strategies, or share the cost of transport- ing feed. The farmers in the community view each other as competitors and operate individually. It's worth noting that the farmer and his wife do share information about poultry raising with their rela- tives and friends in their hometown village. They want to educate them so that they can learn how to efficiently raise poultry and prosper. Challenges According to them, the cost to raise chicken is quite high. Interview 8: Poultry farmer (medium scale) – Terry Location: Morobe Province Background and the nature of business In 2009, Terry made a significant life move from Port Moresby to Nadzab, Lae. With a college degree in food technology, he initially ventured into the fish sector. However, a keen observation of the thriving demand for chicken in PNG prompted him to make a strategic decision. Recognizing the potential in the poultry industry, Terry acquired a 2.5-hectare piece of land in 2011 to establish his own poultry business. He started as an out-grower for TableBirds, pioneering the introduc- tion of poultry farming in the village. Terry's bold step inspired 25 other chicken farmers who also be- came out-growers in the area. He has become an experienced poultry farmer by learning from the TableBirds extension officer and learning by doing. Yet, fueled by entrepreneurial spirit and a desire for independence, he transitioned from being an out-grower for five years to managing his own poultry business. Terry took charge of the entire process, from slaughtering to marketing, marking a significant milestone in his journey as a poultry entrepreneur. Equipment, Infrastructure, Input and Production Land and house 34 Obtaining a land title proved to be a big challenge for Terry, hindering his ability to leverage the prop- erty as collateral for loans from PNG banks. However, he managed to construct various essential struc- tures on his land, including a residence, a chicken shed, a slaughterhouse, a storage facility, and an office. Initially, Terry managed a flock of around 5000 chickens in his original chicken shed, a structure meas- uring 16 by 9 meters, featuring a traditional sago leaf roof. In a transformative move last year, he dis- mantled the old shed and successfully erected a modern replacement. The new chicken shed spans 30 by 9 meters and boasts a durable metal roof. Notably, this contemporary facility stands taller and incor- porates strategically placed fans to optimize airflow. This innovative design aims to enhance conditions within the shed, contributing to a healthier environment and ultimately reducing chicken mortality. Equipment Terry invested 60,000 Kina to connect his land to the main road's 3-phase power, but persistent power outages disrupted his consistent use of electricity from the grid. To address this challenge, he acquired a smaller generator; however, it proved insufficient to power his cold storage. This dilemma led to occa- sional difficulties in maintaining frozen chicken, resulting in Terry making significant losses, prompting him to donate the chickens to a local hospital. In a bid to expand his business and mitigate power-related issues, Terry made a strategic decision to enhance his cold storage capacity. He purchased a much larger cold storage unit with an 18-ton capac- ity, supplementing the existing 3-ton cold storage. The combined capacity of Terry's cold storage facili- ties now stands at 21 tons. Additionally, he owns a blast freezer. Notably, all the compressors for these cold storage units are of German origin, sourced through an international online platform that facilitates direct communication with various sellers. Recognizing the cost-effectiveness of international purchases, Terry acquired a powerful U.S.-branded generator from the same online platform at less than one-third of the price available locally. This plat- form serves as a comprehensive source for Terry's business needs, including slaughter equipment, packages, and labels. The streamlined process, from order placement to product receipt, typically spans two months for Terry. The platform's local agent aids in customs clearance and transports the products to a Lae-based warehouse, from where Terry can conveniently pick up his orders using a truck. The professionalism and efficiency of this service have significantly simplified Terry's international equipment procurement. The packages for the chickens incorporate insulation, ensuring freshness for customers residing in distant locations. This design, pioneered by Terry, has been adopted by major poultry enterprises in PNG, reflecting the positive impact of his innovative approach to meeting busi- ness requirements. Inputs Terry efficiently sources DOCs directly from TableBirds' hatchery, benefiting from favorable terms due to the substantial scale of his purchases. His feed supply is typically procured through the Chemica in- put store, utilizing his personal car or truck for transportation. Terry raises approximately 5000 chickens over a cycle of 5 to 6 weeks, followed by a two-week gap be- fore initiating the next cycle. The scale of his poultry operation presents a significant challenge in the form of high feed costs. 35 In a strategic move to address this challenge, Terry engaged in discussions with an Indonesian feed business interested in exporting to PNG. However, the venture awaits approval from the NAQIA. Terry and the Indonesian business are actively collaborating to secure the necessary permit. I