Overview of the 2023 Breakthrough Agenda findings: Areas to drive food systems transformations 25th July, UNFSS Session: Science and innovation for people, planet and nature Dr. Aditi Mukherji Director, CGIAR Climate Change Impact Platform Emissions are at their highest level in human history Agri-food sector ~30% of global GHG emissions [IPCC WGIII Figure SPM.1; Chapter 2, Figure 2.4; Chapter 12.4] “ In the next 20 minutes we will set out our key findings, showing where we are in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, where we are headed, and what action we can take to limit global warming. [CLICK] The reality is that greenhouse gas emissions, which are causing global warming, are at their highest levels in human history. [NEXT SLIDE] 2 WGIII Chapter 12.4 Agriculture Direct emissions from livestock and crop production systems; 6.3 Gt CO2-eq Agri-food system emission sources Production, processing, distribution, consumption of food and management of food system residues; estimated 23-42% of all global GHG emissions Land-use change Land use, land-use change and forestry, including peatland drainage; 4.0 Gt CO2-eq Energy, industry, waste Processing, transport, storage, preparation, food waste; 6.5 Gt CO2-eq The share of energy, industrial process and waste emissions occurring as part of the food system has grown from ~28% in 1990 to ~38% in 2018 Unless there are immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors (including agri-food systems), 1.5°C is beyond reach. [Matt Bridgestock, Director and Architect at John Gilbert Architects] “ In the next 20 minutes we will set out our key findings, showing where we are in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, where we are headed, and what action we can take to limit global warming. [CLICK] The reality is that greenhouse gas emissions, which are causing global warming, are at their highest levels in human history. [NEXT SLIDE] 4 However, stringent mitigation to keep within 1.5-2°C will lead to severe food insecurity in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia Robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change Hasewaga et al. Nature Climate Change, 2018 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0230-x#citeas Land based mitigation actions like energy crop expansion, non-CO2 emissions reduction in agricultural sector and afforestation lead to lowered availability of calories, increase in population at risk of hunger, higher agricultural commodity prices Fujimori et al. 2023, Nature Food https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00464-4#citeas www.cgiar.org We have a catch-22 situation here Mitigate we must to keep global warming levels within Paris agreed goals of 1.5 to 2ºC to keep the climate impacts at its minimum But mitigation at needed scale may lead to hunger and food insecurity for people in the Global South unless it is done carefully and by understanding the trade-offs and synergies well All of us need to play an important role in ensuring: “That technological and policy breakthroughs lead to just transitions in agri-food sector” www.cgiar.org What constitutes a breakthrough? There are four dimensions of ‘climate-resilient, sustainable agriculture’ established by first (2022) report:  Sustainably increase ag productivity and incomes;   Reduce GHG emissions;    Safeguard soil, water and natural ecosystems  Adapt and build resilience to climate change “The diversity of the agricultural sector demands multiple “game-changing” innovations to escape a business-as-usual path… Synergistic interactions… in hundreds of national and local agricultural systems will cumulatively transform global agriculture.” Merrey DJ, Loboguerrero AM, Zeppenfeldt L. 2023. An Enabling Innovation Ecosystem to Accelerate Agriculture Breakthroughs. Utrecht, the Netherlands: Clim-Eat. https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/130059 www.cgiar.org Breakthrough Agenda Report 2023 Seven ‘breakthrough technologies’ (identified in the 2022 report)  Reduced emissions from fertilisers Alternative proteins  Reduced food loss and waste  Crop and livestock breeding  Reduced methane emissions from livestock  Agro-ecological approaches  Digital services Agricultural Chapter: 8 pages summarizing recommendations for international actions Technical annex: 60 pages with details of interventions in these “technological areas” Noe: This presentation represents a pre-draft of Breakthrouh Agenda Report thinking.  Five (5) recommendation themes: Increasing levels of international climate finance in high potential transformative technology areas Develop evidence and shared learning on public policies and successful innovation programs that support a transition to clean technologies and sustainable solutions. International collaboration to develop agreed indicators, metrics and standards on adaptation and key sector decarbonization indicators Higher levels of investments in agriculture research, development and demonstration (RD&D) Higher levels of engagement with market actors on production, consumption and trade of products in the breakthrough technology areas. www.cgiar.org Steering Group will co-own the chapter’s independent recommendations 8 Reducing emissions from fertilisers : Importance   Fertilizer use increased since 1960s, with commensurate food security benefits Fertilizer use unequal across regions Higher global warming potential of N2O than CO2 More efficient use of fertilizers in high-use regions will allow for optimum use in low-use areas www.cgiar.org 9 Reducing emissions from fertilisers: State of science Production of mineral based fertilizers = 1/3 of fertilizer-based emissions Use : improving nitrogen efficiency essential part of strategy, through precision fertilization, low emissions fertilizers, etc. www.cgiar.org 10 Fertilizers Recommendation  Wording Themes The advanced research institutes should form an international research collaboration to fill gaps in knowledge that prevents adoption of scalable fertilizer technologies. This should form the basis of international knowledge networks closely linked with national research and extension agencies. 4 The Policy Dialogue on Transition to Sustainable Agriculture (PDTSA), launched concurrently and co-led by the WBG and UK, should prioritize formulation of concrete pathways for repurposing subsidies to transition to low emissions/cleaner fertilizers and associated Guidelines. Action could include international collaborative research/policy dialogue develops white paper on repurposing subsidies for transitioning to cleaner fertilizers, under various policy and socio-economic contexts. It should also recommend ways of overcoming cost barriers through regulatory reforms and invite scientists to look at cost-reducing technologies. 2 Capacity building and knowledge networks: International knowledge networks and capacity building workshops with advanced research institutes, and country NARES to strengthen extension services for farmers and extension agencies. Concrete examples of these capacity building events could be: promote farmers' awareness of fertilizer technologies, support NARES to breed crop varieties for increased nutrient use efficiency, explore innovative technologies for nutrient recycling, and developing advanced sensor technologies to accurately measure soil nutrient levels for real-time fertility management 2, 4 There should be international harmonization of regulation and market standards for products like new low emissions fertilizers (e.g. Green Ammonia, but not just limited to it).  3  Five (5) recommendation themes: Climate finance Public policies and innovations Develop agreed indicators and standards RD&D Markets www.cgiar.org Thank you on behalf of CGIAR Author team Aditi Mukherji (CGIAR), Claudia Arndt (ILRI), Jacobo Arango (Alliance for Bioversity and CIAT), Fiona Flintan (ILRI), John Derera (CGIAR), Wendy Francesconi  (Alliance for Bioversity and CIAT), Sarah Jones (Alliance for Bioversity and CIAT), Ana Maria Loboguerrero (Alliance for Bioversity and CIAT), Douglas Merrey (Consultant),  Jonathan Mockshell (Alliance for Bioversity and CIAT),  Oscar Ortiz (CGIAR) Marcela Quintero (Alliance for Bioversity and CIAT), Daniel Girma Mulat (ILRI), Claudia Ringler (IFPRI), Loraine Ronchi (CGIAR), Manuel Ernesto Narjes Sanchez (Alliance for Bioversity and CIAT), Tek Sapkota (CIMMYT), Shakuntala Thilsted (CGIAR) Acknowledgment: Agriculture Chapter Steering Committee FAO Chief Scientist Ismahane Elouafi UN Climate High Level Champion: Rebecca Brooks CGIAR Managing Director: Johan Swinnen Acknowledgment: Funding support FCDO 12 image2.jpeg image6.png image7.wmf image8.png image3.emf image4.emf image5.emf image9.JPG image10.JPG image11.JPG image12.png image1.jpeg image13.emf LETTERS NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE of global GHG emissions from ruminants whereas it supplies only half the milk and beef20. Thus, the transfer of resource-efficient pro- duction technologies, including land- and emissions-saving ones, to developing regions could both contribute to climate mitigation and economic development4. Combining climate policies with these other measures could promote food security and simultaneously reduce poverty and improve health conditions, increasing resilience of the food production systems to climate change and contributing to environmental sustainability. Food security is a multidimensional and multidisciplinary chal- lenge, spanning scales from the global to local levels. In this study, we have focused on analysing the potential consequences of climate change and emissions mitigation policies on two components of food security (food availability and food access) across an intersec- tion of alternative futures in the socio-economic (SSPs), climate (RCPs), and mitigation policy spaces. We used a model ensemble to better assess the uncertainty inherent to the research questions addressed. Our analysis constitutes a first step in understanding important potential trade-offs between efforts to mitigate climate change and to reduce hunger, against a backdrop of a changing cli- mate and dynamic socio-economic conditions. Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its spe- cific impacts and efforts to mitigate its impacts will be realized at national and local levels. As such, future research will be required to assess the unique local and national challenges to adapting to and mitigating climate change while also reducing food insecurity. The multidisciplinary framework that we have presented will also need to be further expanded to better assess changes to dietary quality and diversity, and their role in human health. Despite the need for further research, we believe this study helps improve understanding of the potential interactions between varied policy objectives within alternative climate, economic and policy futures. In particular, it highlights the need for carefully designed mitigation policies for agriculture and land use, to ensure that progress towards climate stabilization and food security can be simultaneously achieved. Methods Methods, including statements of data availability and any asso- ciated accession codes and references, are available at https://doi. org/10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x. Received: 31 October 2017; Accepted: 27 June 2018; Published online: 30 July 2018 References 1. Asseng, S. et al. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 143–147 (2015). 2. Nelson, G. C. et al. Climate change e!ects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3274–3279 (2014). 3. Rosenzweig, C.., & Parry, M. L.. Potential impact of climate change on world food supply. Nature 367, 133–138 (1994). 4. Havlik, P. et al. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3709–3714 (2014). 5. Hasegawa, T. et al. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger. Environ. Sci. Technol. 49, 7245–7253 (2015). 6. van Meijl, H. et al. Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 064021 (2018). 7. Decision 1/CP.21: Adoption of the Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/10/Add.1 (UNFCCC, 2016); https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf 8. Renewables 2007 Global Status Report (REN21 & Worldwatch Institute, 2008). 9. Zekarias, H., "omas, H. & Alla, G. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 035009 (2013). 10. Hertel, T. W. & Rosch, S. D. Climate change, agriculture, and poverty. Appl. Econ. Perspect. Policy 32, 355–385 (2010). 11. Lotze-Campen, H. et al. Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison. Agric. Econ. 45, 103–116 (2014). 12. von Lampe, M. et al. Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture di!er? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison. Agric. Econ. 45, 3–20 (2014). 13. Baldos, U. L. C. & Hertel, T. W. Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change. Aust. J. Agric. Resour. Econ. 58, 554–570 (2014). 14. Hasegawa, T. et al. Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework. Environ. Sci. Technol. 48, 438–445 (2014). RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 South−East Asia Other Asia Rest of the world Sub−Saharan Africa China India A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 C ha ng es in p op ul at io n at r is k of h un ge r (m ill io n) Factor Mitigation effect Climate effect RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 Other Asia Rest of the world Sub−Saharan Africa Sub−Saharan Asia China India −200 −100 0 −200 −100 0 C ha ng es in d ie ta ry e ne rg y av ai la bi lit y (( kc al p er p er so n pe r da y) RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 RCP2.6 RCP6.0 South−East Asia Other Asia Rest of the world Sub−Saharan Africa China India 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 C ha ng es in a gr ic ul tu ra l c om m od ity p ric e A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T A IM C G E C A P R I G C A M G LO B IO M IM A G E IM PA C T M A G N E T a b c Fig. 3 | Regional effects of climate change and emissions mitigation. a–c, Effects on population at risk of hunger (a) mean dietary energy availability (b) and agricultural commodity price (c) in 2050 under the intermediate socio-economic scenario (SSP2). Values indicate changes from the baseline scenario with no climate change and no climate mitigation. In c the baseline level is 1. MAgPIE is excluded due to inelastic food demand. The value of India includes that of Other Asia in MAGNET. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 8 | AUGUST 2018 | 699–703 | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange702 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0230-x https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf http://www.nature.com/natureclimatechange image14.png image15.png image16.png image17.png image18.jpeg