FACTSHEET 2023/4 How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Guatemala? Climate Security Pathway Analysis Ignacio Madurga-Lopez, Bia Carneiro, Theresa Liebig, Peter Läderach and Grazia Pacillo This factsheet gives answers on how climate exacerbates root causes of conflict in Guatamala, using a pathway analysis. Two main pathways are identified: 1. Livelihood and Food Insecurity: Climate change impacts may exacerbate socioeconomic conditions leading to vulnerability in households dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, and further contribute to food and livelihood insecurity. This, in turn, may spur economic migration towards urban centres inside and outside the country. The lack of access to alternative livelihood options may increase engagement in illicit activities and recruitment by criminal groups, indirectly contributing to the strength of organized crime networks active in the border regions with Mexico and Honduras. 2. Resource Availability and Access: The impact of climate change on water, land and food systems has been observed and is predicted to further reduce agricultural land productivity, decrease key cash crop yields, as well as hinder the availability and access to natural resources in Guatemala. Increased competition over natural resource access and distribution may lead to tensions and conflicts. Climate SAecfurircitay C Olibmseartvea Ctorirsyi sS eSreiceus rity Observatory wwwww.cwli.mcliamteastecsuerciutyr.ictyg.icagri.aor.gorg PHOTO JL UREA This publication is part of a factsheet series reporting on the findings of the CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Observatory work. The research is centered around 5 questions*: 1 How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict? Climate Security Pathway Analysis Ethiopia Kenya Guatemala Mali Nigeria Senegal Sudan Uganda Zimbabwe Econometric analysis Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal Sudan Uganda Zimbabwe Scopus analysis** 2 Where are the climate insecurities hotspots? Spatial analysis Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal Sudan Uganda Zimbabwe What is the underlying structure of the climate, conflict, 3 and socio-economic system? Network analysis Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal Sudan Uganda Zimbabwe 4 Are climate and security policies coherent and integrated? Policy coherence analysis 5 Are policy makers aware of the climate security nexus? Social media analysis Kenya Mali Nigeria Senegal Sudan Uganda Zimbabwe Click on the links above to view the other Factsheets * Questions 1, 2, 3, 5 are analyzed at country level through a Climate Risk Lens (impact pathways, economic, spatial, network and social media analyses). The policy coherence and scopus analyses are at continental level. **Scopus is one of the largest curated abstract and citation databases, with a wide global and regional coverage of scientific journals, conference proceedings, and books. We used Scopus data for analyzing: (1) how global climate research addresses the dynamics between climate, socio-economic factors, and conflict, and (2) how the countries studied are represented in the database. © 2023 CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security. This is an open-access document distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official position of the CGIAR or its donor agen- cies. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of CGIAR concerning the legal status of any country, territory, area, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official position of the CGIAR or its donor agencies. For more information please contact: p.laderach@CGIAR.ORG 2 Climate Security Observatory Series : Impact Pathways KENYA 1. CONTEXT Climate Profile The climate in Guatemala is characterized by the cooler temperatures of the western highlands, the warm and wet tropical rainforests of the northern Petén region, the humid Pacific and Caribbean coastal areas, and the drier climate of the eastern tropical savanna zone along the Central American Dry Corridor (MARN et al 2021). Seasonal precipitation occurs from May to October and is characterized by a temporary dry period known as the mid-summer drought, where a rainfall reduction of approximately 40 percent is experienced for a period lasting from several weeks up to a month in July or August (Arnoldo Bardales et al 2021; MARN et al 2021). Guatemala is considered a primary hotspot for climate change due to its high vulnerability and low readiness to cope with climate change impacts (Notre Dame University 2022). Guatemala is also considered one of the most exposed countries to climate variability and extreme weather events, as well as to non-climatic-related natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcano eruptions (IEP 2021; MARN et al 2021). In the past twenty years, the average annual temperature as well as the maximum and minimum daily temperatures have increased by 0.8 °C and 0.6 °C respectively, particularly in February, July, August, and September (MARN et al 2021). The greatest temperature increases have been along the Pacific coast, Bocacosta, Valles de Oriente, and the Caribbean (MARN et al 2021). In the last 20 years, rainfall patterns have significantly changed, with an increase of 122 mm in the average annual rainfall as well as more intense and less well distributed rainy days (MARN et al 2021). From the period 2010 to 2015 alone, the Pacific coastal zones experienced an increase in surface sea temperature of 0.44 °C and a 1.7 to 2.5 mm rise in sea level (MARN et al 2021). By 2050, temperatures are expected to increase between 2 °C and 4 °C, with the greatest increases on the Caribbean coast, the east, the north, and the southern Pacific coast (García Morales, 2019; MARN et al 2021). Climate projections predict a decrease in precipitation of up to 50 percent in the semi-arid region of the country situated in the Dry Corridor (Arnoldo Bardales et al 2021). Nevertheless, while rainy days are expected to decrease, extreme events, such as tropical cyclones, are predicted to be more frequent across the country (Arnoldo Bardales et al 2021). Climate projections expect onset of the seasonal mid-summer drought to occur earlier and last for longer (+18 days), consequently expanding the semi-arid climate across regions (Maurer et al 2017). The biggest impact on water availability is expected in the departments of Baja Verapaz, Sacatepéquez, Totonicapán, Chimaltenango, Guatemala, El Progreso, Zacapa, Jutiapa, Chiquimula as well as the south of Quiché and Huehuetenango (Arnoldo Bardales et al 2021). Due to rising sea levels, predicted to increase by 9 to 13 cm by 2050, causing flooding and erosion, municipalities located in coastal-marine areas will have a “high” to “very high” vulnerability to climate change (MARN et al 2021; USAID 2017). Conflict and Fragility Guatemala’s recent history has been characterized by military coups, a civil war, authoritarian repression and a climate of instability and insecurity. It experiences a high number of homicides and violent crimes, mostly related to gang violence and organized crime, where drug trafficking-related violence plays a major role in insecurity dynamics (IEP 2021; Nett & Rüttinger 2016). Climate Security Observatory Series: Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA 3 Guatemala’s civil war took place during the Cold War period. Following the coup against the elected president Jacobo Arbenz in 1954, the country experienced a clash between conservative and the anti-communist groups, with revolutionary wars followed by strong repression from the government (Álvarez Aragón et al 2013; Molden 2015). From 1965 until the mid-1990s, Guatemala faced an intrastate armed conflict between the government forces and insurgent groups such as the FAR (Rebel Armed Forces), the EGP (Guerilla Army of the Poor) and the PGT (Guatemalan Worker’s Party) (UCDP 2023). This period was characterized by one-sided violence that resulted in the death and disappearance of approximately 200 000 people, 83 percent of whom were indigenous Mayan communities, who, according to the Commission for Historical Clarification, suffered a genocide (UCDP 2023; ODHAG 1998). Despite the 1996 peace agreement, after thirty years of civil war, post-conflict Guatemala still experiences violence daily, from both state and non-state actors, including organized crime and gang violence (Godoy 2006; Knowlton 2017; Rodgers & Muggah 2009). Situated in the middle of the drug smuggling route from South to North America, Guatemala has witnessed a rise in violence linked to drug trafficking, micro-trafficking, extortion and money laundering activities (del Mercado et al 2021; ICG 2017; Nett & Rüttinger 2016). In fact, Guatemala has among the highest homicide rates in Latin America and the world, as well as one of the highest femicide rates (UNICEF 2014; World Bank 2021e). These factors contributed to UNICEF classifying Guatemala as the second most dangerous country in the world for children under nineteen years old (UNICEF 2014). The development of new economic activities, mainly extractive in nature, have also fuelled what is commonly referred by Guatemalan scholars as socio-environmental conflictivity (INTRAPAZ 2009). Large-scale investments, such as cultivation of sugar cane in Polochic, the reactivation of nickel mining in Izabal, and the development of hydroelectric plants on the Northern Transversal Strip highway, have been identified as a source of conflict between local communities and extractive industries linked to transnational corporations (INTRAPAZ 2009; López et al 2021). Furthermore, conflicts between communities and social groups over access to natural resources also prevail. Evidence points to the occurrence of inter- and intra-community conflict in San Marcos, for example, between Tajumulco and Ixchiguán municipalities, and in Sololá, between Santa Catarina Ixtahuacán and Nahualá municipalities (ACLED 2022; Garcia 2022; Tejiendo Paz 2020). While the former is mostly driven by contrasting interests within the community concerning the development of industrial projects, the latter is due to competition over resources in territories where land boundaries are not clearly delineated and communities share water and land resources (López et al 2021). Despite not being directly linked, these tensions are understood as a continuation of the social and economic inequalities of the previous armed conflict, as they are concentrated in regions characterised by unequal distribution and being severely affected by the civil war (López et al 2021). . Socio-Economic and Political Context Though Guatemala is considered to be an upper middle-income country, poverty and inequality rates are among the highest in Latin America. Agriculture remains one of the most important economic activities, accounting for up to 31 percent of total employment and 9.4 percent of GDP (World Bank 2021b). The coffee sector alone generates up to 1.8 million jobs (Canet Brenes et al 2016). Considering that the majority of agricultural production is rainfed and that more than 80 percent of agricultural- 4 Climate Security Observatory Series : Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA based GDP is produced in areas subject to disaster risks, it is a sector highly vulnerable to climate impacts (Hernández 2012; World Bank 2011). Poverty and inequality rates throughout the country remain worryingly high. Unemployment rates are up to 54 percent in the departments situated in the Dry Corridor (WFP et al 2017). Guatemala is deemed to be one of the most unequal countries in Latin America and it scores among the twenty highest Gini coefficients in the world (World Bank 2014). While one per cent of Guatemalá s population accumulates 40 percent of the country’s wealth (Oficina Económica y Comercial de España en Guatemala 2022), 59 percent experience poverty (World Bank 2014). Poverty is particularly pronounced among Indigenous Peoples, affecting 79 percent of the indigenous population (WFP 2022). These vulnerabilities also particularly affect women, as high levels of gender inequality jeopardize women’s access to land, inputs, financial services, and employment opportunities (Howland et al 2021). Following the typical Latin American trend, Guatemala faces the triple burden of malnutrition, micronutrient deficiency and obesity (IICA 2018). Guatemala ranks as seventh in the world in chronic malnutrition (Romero 2022). Food insecurity rates are also high, with 46.5 percent of children under five years experiencing chronic malnutrition (WFP 2022). The departments of Huehuetenango, Quiché, and Baja Verapaz show the highest food insecurity rates (Läderach et al 2021). As the second largest market for US exports of processed food products in Central America and with the agriculture sector accounting for 9.4 percent of GDP (World Bank 2021b), Guatemala is highly vulnerable to international food market shocks. The government’s lack of sufficient funding to address food security crises as well as to provide basic health care has resulted in high dependence on the international community for emergency funds (Müller et al 2020). Weak governance and corruption have also curtailed the capacity of the state to meet people’s basic needs in times of crisis and undermined climate adaptation and mitigation efforts (Nett & Rüttinger 2016; University of Notre Dame 2022). 2. CLIMATE SECURITY PATHWAYS Increasing temperatures, combined with declines in precipitation rates, sea level rise, as well as more frequent intense and extreme weather events, make Guatemala, particularly the areas situated in the Dry Corridor, one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change (MARN et al 2021). Climate projections, particularly for drought in the western highlands and across the Dry Corridor, are expected to continue compounding crop climate suitability and yields, undermining livelihoods and food security and, consequently, driving poverty, malnutrition, and human mobility across the country. Limited access to and availability of resources, combined with livelihood and food insecurity, may increase competition over resources, leading to tensions and land conflicts, in addition to exacerbating involvement in illicit activities in the western regions of the country. In this document, we explore the impacts of climate change variability through two pathways: • Food and livelihood insecurity • Resource availability and access Climate Security Observatory Series: Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA 5 PATHWAY #1: Livelihood and Food insecurity Climate change impacts may exacerbate socioeconomic conditions leading to vulnerability in households dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, and further contribute to food and livelihood insecurity. This, in turn, may spur economic migration towards urban centres inside and outside the country. The lack of access to alternative livelihood options may increase engagement in illicit activities and recruitment by criminal groups, indirectly contributing to the strength of organized crime networks active in the border regions with Mexico and Honduras. Guatemalan rural households are highly dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture for their livelihood and food security (Valencia 2022). Recent surveys conducted in Acatenango and Chiquimula show that over 90 percent of smallholder farmers have already perceived changes in the climate (Harvey et al 2018). Prolonged dry spells and droughts have led to increased water evaporation and soil erosion, resulting in losses of farm yields (Beveridge et al 2019; Hernández 2012; Maurer et al 2017; Nett and Rüttinger 2016; Vargas et al 2017). Climate change effects are expected to further increase economic losses, particularly for smallholder farmers involved in key cash and staple crops for the country, principally corn, bananas and coffee (Luna Natareno 2022; Tucker et al 2010; Waddick 2017; WFP et al 2017). By 2050, agricultural productivity is expected to decrease, with a projected yield decline of 14 percent in the case of maize and beans and up to 35 percent for sugarcane (Castellanos et al 2018). Extreme weather events, such as floods and tropical cyclones, lead to a loss of infrastructure, such as roads or bridges, which could limit access to markets (Pons 2021). Damage from Tropical Storm Stan that hit Guatemala in 2005, for instance, accounted for a 3.4 percent reduction of Guatemala’s GDP, destroyed 17 000 houses and severely affected smallholder farmers and low-income households, who suffered 59 percent of the losses (Delavelle 2015). In 2020, the impact of hurricanes Eta and Lota on 700 000 hectares were estimated to cost 223 million Quetzal (around $28 million), with losses of up to 922 million Quetzal (around $117 million) primarily impacting the Izabal, Santa Rosa and Alta Verapaz departments (Bello & Peralta 2021; IFRC 2021). Similarly, in 2022, Tropical Cyclone Julia severely impacted service and roadway infrastructure in Izabal and Alta Verapaz, affecting 4.3 million habitants, 268 municipalities and up to 147 000 harvest hectares (OCHA 2022). While the implications of increased temperatures are potentially severe depending on the location and the adaptative capacity in each department, it is estimated that between 20 and 25 percent of municipalities will experience losses of farm yields greater than 10 percent, with the exception of the highlands, which expects an increase from 10 to 41 percent (Alpízar et al 2020; Maurer et al 2017). Meanwhile, due to international supply chain disruptions linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflation has reached a peak of 7.6 percent for the first time since 2011, increasing food prices and diminishing purchasing power (WFP 2022). In Guatemala, the relationship between climate variability and food security is found to operate prominently through agricultural production, eroding subsistence agriculture as well as consumer purchasing power due to decreased production and sales of market-oriented crops and the 6 Climate Security Observatory Series : Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA consequent increase in food prices linked to reduced supply (Milan & Ruano 2014). As climate variability affects seasonal precipitation patterns, and the onset of mid-summer droughts occur earlier and last longer, access to and supply of water, and consequently, food security, are projected to be particularly curtailed (Maurer et al 2017; Vargas et al 2018; Viguera et al 2019). Indeed, water scarcity is expected to increasingly contribute to crop losses, as most of the agricultural products on which household farms rely, such as maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, and black beans, are rain-fed crops (FEWS NET 2022; Maurer et al 2017; Milan & Ruano 2014). While dry beans production is predicted to decrease by ten percent in the Petén department, other departments, such as San Marcos and Totonicapán, expect to experience an increase in yields from 15 to 16 percent (Eitzinger et al 2017). Furthermore, pests and diseases, such as coffee leaf rust, are expected to become more common as temperatures increase, further undermining crop productivity (Avelino et al 2015). Similarly, coffee production, predominantly located in the lowlands and known to be an alternative livelihood option for seasonal employment, is projected to not be economically viable in zones that are situated below 1600 meters above sea level by 2050 due to reduced climate suitability (Castellanos & Thomas 2018). Migrant harvesters and smallholders’ dependency on purchasing food makes them particularly vulnerable to external shocks, diminishing their purchasing power and hindering their ability to access food and directly impacting households’ food security (Avelino et al 2015). Lack of savings, debt as well as high food prices are some of the common features of the Dry Corridor and Alta Verapaz households (FEWS NET 2022). In a survey focusing on El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, IOM and WFP (2022) reported that half of the households interviewed had spent entire days without eating as a coping mechanism due to lack of money. Reports indicate that in the past five years there has been a substantial increase in the price of white maize and black beans (FEWS NET 2022). At the same time, increases in input costs have led to lower profitability, which in turn reduces investment in plantations and increases the vulnerability of crops to pests and diseases (Avelino et al 2015). Furthermore, yield shortages are also found to result in lower productivity and incentives to work as seasonal workers in the coffee sector, reducing household cash and capacity for investing in fertilizers and livestock (Baumeister 1993; Rivera Lima 2022). Climate change projections suggest a reduction in the production and export of crops, as well as an increase in cereal import dependence and food prices. These are expected to consequently impact wages, reduce GDP by 1.2 percent and further undermine food and livelihood security across the country (Castellanos et al 2018; Vargas et al 2018). “Voices from the field: climate change, mobility, and insecurity in La Lima (Chiquimula). Seasonal migration to coffee plantations, both within Guatemala and across the border in Honduras, is the most common form of mobility practiced by Maya Ch´ortí farmers in La Lima, Camotán, in the department of Chiquimula. Under conditions of reduced agricultural productivity, the dependence of community members on migration to participate in coffee harvesting activities has increased in recent years. Due to increasing demand for short-term employment in coffee plantations, a rising number of people are forced to find alternative sources of income during the dry periods, mainly migrating to sugarcane plantations in the southwest of Guatemala, or to the city in search of an urban-based livelihood. Migration is associated with security risks, as people on the move are more prone to assault, theft and kidnapping. Although there is currently small- scale production of coffee within the La Lima community, farmers are not organized in accessing Climate Security Observatory Series: Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA 7 regional markets, hence they rely on selling directly to intermediary actors who periodically visit the community. Furthermore, the effects of coffee rust on productivity is increasingly being felt across the region. These problems limit the potential of local coffee production as a source of income and employment to La Lima populations. Low productivity hotspots are mainly concentrated across subsistence farming areas, which are localized in the Quiché, Huehuetenango, Chimaltenango, Totonicapán, Sololá, and Quetzaltenango departments (Läderach et al 2021). The mid-summer drought period (June, July, August) is the lean season, characterized by scarcity and the most severe food insecurity rates in the year (FEWS NET 2022). Limited agricultural productivity during the dry season curtails the food security of vulnerable households as the rural population does not have food reserves to rely on and both poor urban and rural households are obliged to depend completely for food supplies on the market, where increased prices prevail due to increased demand and low supply of agricultural products (FEWS NET 2022). Between March and May 2022, more than 3.9 million people experienced acute food insecurity, which was expected to rise to 4.6 million from June to September 2022 (IPC 2022). Hence, more recurrent and intense droughts are expected to further compound food insecurity and exacerbate malnutrition within the population. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate and compound already existing inequalities of vulnerable groups, impacting particularly women, children, and indigenous communities (Howland et al 2021; Vargas et al 2017). Several studies have provided evidence that women-headed households are less likely to experience food shortages and highlighted their positive contribution to improving food availability, access and use; nonetheless, gender inequality jeopardizes women’s access to land, inputs, financial services, and employment opportunities (Alpízar et al 2020; Howland et al 2021). Nationally, 46.5 percent of children under five years of age live with chronic malnutrition, a figure that reaches 53 percent in rural areas (MSPAS et al 2017; WFP 2022). Nevertheless, food insecurity is concentrated where indigenous populations reside, especially in the western highlands, where indigenous communities have historically been subject to socioeconomic and political marginalization (Barba-Escoto et al 2020; Läderach et al 2021; Lopez-Ridaura et al 2019). In this region, predominately in the departments of Totonicapán, Quiché, and Huehuetenango, where there are particularly high percentages of indigenous peoples, stunting in children under five years of age is around 79 percent, in comparison to the national average of 47 percent (USAID 2018). Historically, in addition to remittances, which account for 17.9 percent of total GDP and is the main source of income for a fifth of households, seasonal employment in the coffee sector has become a frequent adaptation strategy for rural indigenous men who, sometimes with their families, travel from rural areas during the dry season from May to August (Baumeister 1993; FAO & ACH 2012; Rivera Lima 2022; Valencia 2022; World Bank 2021d). Considering that 97 percent of coffee producers are small- scale farmers who rely on their own grain production, their livelihoods are highly vulnerable to market and climate shocks (Alpízar et al 2020; Müller et al 2020; Tay 2018). As droughts become more frequent and intense during the harvesting season, perennial crops such as coffee are expected to be impacted, having severe consequences for workers relying on them for seasonal income, especially considering that the cheapest way for landowners to reduce costs is to decrease the labour force (Delavelle 2015; Olivera et al 2021). A survey (IOM et al 2015) found that 12 percent of respondents had one or more 8 Climate Security Observatory Series : Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA members of their family who had migrated within the previous month because of the prolonged dry spell, indicating an increasing trend of families dependent on climate-sensitive income-generating activities migrating as a result of climate-related impacts (Nett and Rüttinger 2016). Similarly, a report by WFP indicated that members of families affected by El Niño droughts were 1.5 percent more likely to emigrate compared to non-affected households (WFP et al 2017). While it remains difficult to specify the main factors behind the decision to migrate, there is consent among authors (Milan & Ruano 2014; Pons 2021; Warner and Afifi 2014) that while the main direct causes of migration are poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity, these factors are indirectly influenced by the detrimental impact of climate variability and extreme weather events on rain-fed agriculture (IOM et al 2015; WFP et al 2017). The hardship in agricultural activities caused by the 2014–2015 and 2018 droughts has been identified as a major driver of increased migration to the United States (Bermeo et al 2022; Olivera et al 2021). For instance, in municipalities such as Cabricán 70 percent of the households, driven by the insecurity of rain-fed agriculture, have migrated either to the USA, bigger cities or other areas to be seasonal workers (Milan & Ruano 2014). Nevertheless, families face substantial risks when emigrating and while successful entry can lead to employment and consistent remittances for the family in the home country, disappearance and unsuccessful entries are also possible outcomes (WFP et al 2017). Given that almost half of the Guatemalan population in the USA live without legal status and that most of this migration is illegal, often facilitated by migrant smuggler networks or by overstaying their visas, Guatemalan migrants are particularly vulnerable to experiencing sexual exploitation, robberies, and overall human rights abuses and insecurity in their transit to the destination country (Hernández Bonilla et al 2018; IOM 2017; Selee et al 2022; WFP and IOM 2022). Youth gangs in both Mexico and Guatemala, for instance, are notorious for taking advantage of irregular migrants (Delavelle 2015). The absence of official channels that facilitate legal migration procedures and ensure the protection of environmental migrants from Latin America to the USA has incentivized the use of irregular channels through smugglers, exposing migrants to human trafficking and life-threatening risks in transit or once in the destination country (Delavelle 2015; Nansen Initiative 2013). “Voices from the field: The loss of livelihood security is associated with increasing human mobility, which is linked to risks of insecurity for migrant populations. A widespread perception that agriculture is no longer a suitable livelihood strategy predominantes among farmers in the Chiantla municipality, department of Huehuetenango. The reduced flow from natural water springs in a region under more intense mid-summer drought fuels the cycle between loss of agricultural opportunities and migration. The loss of small-scale agricultural livelihoods is associated with an increasing reliance on unregulated migration, mainly to the United States. Unregulated migration, although in general considered beneficial to the community due to increasing remitances, investement and employment opportunities, is also associated with security risks due to common abuses of migrants throughout the migratory routes. Furthermore, ample opportunities to migrate have led to an absence of available local workers to employ in the fields, thereby exacerbating sentiments around agriculture as an uncertain livelihood strategy (Medina et al forthcoming). Climate Security Observatory Series: Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA 9 For this reason, considering the increasing climate variability, internal migration towards urban areas, such as Guatemala City, is the most frequently used strategy to diversify livelihoods and income (Fetzek 2009; Huber 2023; Nett and Rüttinger 2016;). Young, single, and recently married adults are the most likely to migrate (Bilsborrow 2001). While men are more likely to migrate abroad (accounting for 72 percent of the resident population living abroad), women are more likely to move to urban areas due to their increasing role in industrial production (Baez et al 2017; Delavelle 2013; UN INSTRAW 2006). Guatemala City and the highlands are projected to be a climate ‘in-migration’ hotspot, differing from the Pacific coast, which is expected to be a climate ‘out-migration’ hotspot (Kumari Rigaud et al 2018). Projections focussed on the subregion indicate that by 2050, Mexico and Central America could reach 1.4 to 2.1 million climate refugees (Kumari Rigaud et al 2018). While an increase in the number of migrants is not a security problem per se, social tensions could emerge depending on how migrants are received and perceived in destination areas (Fetzek 2009). Similarly, exposure and involvement in illicit economic activities by organized crime are expected to increase, therefore contributing to the government’s loss of territorial control (Fetzek 2009). For instance, some areas in northern Guatemala are controlled by narco-traffickers, including cases in which these have even established alternative state structures to provide basic services (Fetzek 2009). The state’s legitimacy and monopoly on the use of force are further being undermined by the rising privatization of state tasks by armed non-state actors (Nett & Rüttinger 2016). Meanwhile, these criminal groups have exploited disaster-affected areas that have restricted access to avoid government control (Nett & Rüttinger 2016). “Voices from the field: The loss of livelihoods due to climate effects increases the adoption of illicit activities among the youth. More intense and frequent tropical storms and mid-summer droughts (canícula) have increased soil erosion and reduced crop nutrient content throughout the Camotán municipality, in the Chiquimula department. These climate effects are reported to have reduced agricultural productivity throughout the region, including from both an increased risk of crop losses and diminishing yields. Due to low incomes, poor employment opportunities and food insecurity, people in Camotán are more likely to resort to illegal activities, mainly the farming of illegal crops. The loss of livelihoods, coupled with low availability of alternative employment, also increases the adoption by the youth of other illicit activities in urban settings and along unsupervised roads, including assault and theft (Medina et al forthcoming). Tensions linked to access, provision and payment of basic services such as drinking water and electricity; the level of poverty, inequality, and unemployment; as well as the extent of land used for mining have all been associated with a higher incidence of conflict (López et al 2021; Tejiendo Paz, 2020). Similarly, urban areas receiving climate-related rural migration as well as deported migrants from the USA are increasingly experiencing tensions and violence (ICG 2017; Nett & Rüttinger 2016). Migrants struggling with chronic malnutrition have been associated with poverty, social exclusion, lack of social services and limited employment opportunities, factors leading to high vulnerability to engaging in illicit activities as well as to gang recruitment (Nett & Rüttinger 2016). Young people, smallholders and particularly those who have been previously deported from the USA, have been identified as having higher incentives to engage in gang violence and theft as well as to be influenced 10 Climate Security Observatory Series : Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA by transnational drug cartels in both rural and urban areas (ICG 2017; Nett & Rüttinger 2016; Worby 2013). As such, climate change can limit access to and availability of resources, undermining livelihood opportunities and in turn indirectly contributing to the strengthening of gang and narco-trafficking networks (Fetzek 2009; Nett & Rüttinger 2016). Communities dependent on climate-sensitive crops are more likely to be less resilient to climate shocks and more vulnerable to losing their income due to climate-driven major crop losses, as they are unable to rely on their own grain production (Nett & Rüttinger 2016; Normanns & Morales 2016). In light of this, participation in illicit activities, such as illegal logging in Petén and the growth of illegal crops in the western highlands, near the Mexican border, in addition to migration to seek alternative livelihoods, are sometimes seen as viable solutions to improve livelihood conditions (Delavelle 2015; Rigaud et al 2018; Lynch 2019; Melgoza & Papadovassilakis 2022; Müller et al 2020; Nett & Rüttinger 2016). Livelihood and food insecurity in the western highlands Situated in the elevated region in southern Guatemala and bordering Mexico, the western highlands of Guatemala are characterized as the country’s most vulnerable region to the impacts of climate change (USAID 2022). Dominated by maize and coffee crops, farm households are unable to attain sufficient food from their agricultural activities, remaining dependent on off-farm sources of food as well as paid employment to obtain livelihood and food security (Lopez-Ridaura et al 2019). In Guatemala, food insecurity is concentrated in the western highlands, where poverty affects over 50 percent of the population and 48 percent experience chronic malnutrition (Hellin et al 2017). Climate-driven livelihood and food insecurity, already a reality for many households in this region, has contributed to a rise in migration, particularly of unaccompanied children, to different parts of the country but most commonly abroad, predominantly to the USA, in order to seek alternative livelihood options (Clare 2020; Delavelle 2015; Dupre et al 2022; IOM et al 2015; Nett and Rüttinger 2016; WFP et al 2017 ). Nevertheless, 50 percent of migrants deported from the USA are estimated to come from Guatemala, particularly from the provinces of Huehuetenango (15.5 percent), San Marcos (15.3 percent), El Quiché (8.2 percent), Quetzaltenango (7.8 percent) and Totonicapán (Tejiendo Paz 2020). The lack of support for returned migrants makes these Guatemalans particularly vulnerable to drug addiction, petty crime, and recruitment by organized criminal gangs (Worby 2013). By developing alternative state-like structures and filling the gap in state-provided basic services, narco-traffickers have gained support among the local population and have been able to extend their illicit activities (Nett & Rüttinger 2016). The engagement of farmers in the cultivation of opium poppy, key for heroin production, has been found to be a prominent alternative income-generating activity for western highland households (Clare 2020; Espinoza 2017; Gonzalez 2019; Nett & Rüttinger 2016; Normanns & Morales 2016). Their revenues are estimated to multiply benefits compared to average farm crops by 12 to 20 times (Feakin & Deplege 2010; IPS 2006). Nevertheless, opium poppy is linked to narco-trafficking networks from neighbouring Mexico, who are characterized by inflicting violence against the local population as well as engaging in conflicts between the different cartels, contributing to an overall dynamic of instability and insecurity in the region (Espach et al 2011). For Climate Security Observatory Series: Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA 11 instance, in the Ixchiguán y Tajumulco municipalities in the San Marcos department, an area known for the cultivation of opium poppy, a state of emergency was declared after an outbreak of violence between the local habitants and the military (Clavel 2017). Meanwhile, the government’s efforts to eradicate opium poppy plants without providing an alternative for the farmers in the San Marcos department has jeopardised the only sustaining income that some local families had and pushed them back into poverty, leading to malnutrition and poor health (Clare 2020; Gonzalez 2019; Stone 2012). PATHWAY #2: Resource Availability and Access The impact of climate change on water, land and food systems has been observed and is predicted to further reduce agricultural land productivity, decrease key cash crop yields, as well as hinder the availability and access to natural resources in Guatemala. Increased competition over natural resource access and distribution may lead to tensions and conflicts. Almost half of Guatemalan territory is subject to risks linked to climate change impacts and around 12 percent of the territory is threatened by desertification (Hernández Bonilla et al 2018). Guatemalan rural households highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture are characterized by a lack of financial means, poverty and malnutrition (WFP et al 2017). Simultaneously, vulnerable households have limited adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of climate variability (Milan & Ruano 2014; Warner & Afifi 2014). For communities in the Dry Corridor, access and availability of natural resources is projected to be curtailed due to precipitation decreases of up to 70 percent (Hernández Bonilla et al 2018). This will be particularly prominent in the departments of Baja Verapaz, Sacatepéquez, and Chimaltenango (Hernández Bonilla et al 2018). As climate change impacts become more prominent and recurrent, access and availability of resources are expected to be further jeopardized, increasing competition and the likelihood of conflicts and tensions over natural resources (Hernández Bonilla et al 2018; Nett & Rüttinger 2016). Apart from reducing agricultural output, prolonged dry spells, and extreme weather events have also decreased the availability of agricultural land (Waddick 2017). In Guatemala, 70 percent of activities contributing to GDP are dependent on access to water (MARN et al 2021). Water scarcity is particularly prominent during the dry season, affecting most of the eastern and west-central highlands, the northern Petén region, and the south coast (USAID 2017). More than 40 percent of Guatemalan rural habitants lack access to water in their homes and even those who do, often do not have access to sanitation (MDG Fund & Cooperación Española undated) Water quality remains poor, with figures indicating a decline in quality over the past decades, mainly linked to an increase in contaminated water from the agricultural and industrial sectors (Basterrechea & Guerra Noriega 2019). Considering that only 44 percent of the population has access to water sanitation, increasing water scarcity, combined with deteriorating water quality and low treatment, are expected to further jeopardize the population’s access to and availability of drinking water (MARN et al 2021). Furthermore, projected sea level rise may increase saltwater intrusion to superficial and groundwater bodies of water in the central plateau and in the eastern and lowland areas of the Petén department (MARN et al 2021). Another challenge is the increasing demand pushed by population growth, factors which have led to projections of declines of up to 59 percent in water availability per capita by the end of the century (Basterrechea & Guerra Noriega 2019; MARN et al 2021). 12 Climate Security Observatory Series : Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA “Voices from the field: Increasingly scarce water resources can lead to higher risk of inter- and intra-community conflict. Water for household consumption and irrigation in the community of El Carpintero in Chiantla (Huehuetenango), comes entirely from springs around the locality. Although the community owns several of these springs, most were sold decades ago by the municipal government to surrounding municipalities looking to secure water provision in larger urban areas. This led to a limited number of springs within El Carpintero remaining available to the community, all of which are currently located within private lands of community members. Under changing precipitation patterns, the community has observed a reduction in the flow of spring water, mainly during the dry season and mid-summer droughts. The community recognizes the need to acquire the remaining springs within its local territory, so as to secure future water access. However, the private nature of the springs, coupled with the low willingness of community members to pool resources to buy the land, has made this objective a challenging endeavour. Low accessibility to water, the private nature of the springs, and increasing interest from external actors to acquire the remaining ones, are thought to implicate a risk of conflict both within and beyond the community. In fact, several instances of conflict have already taken place with differing degrees of violence (Medina et al forthcoming) Dry spells in the agricultural zones of Motagua Valley and the Pacific slopes of Guatemala are projected to be affected by water stress for irrigation activities, as they constitute 74 to 90 percent of overall water demand (Delavelle 2015). Extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, have led to landslides and floods, triggering losses of infrastructure and harvests, hindering road access, limiting the movement of people and commodities, and as well as causing food shortages (Waddick 2017). As extreme weather events become more intense and recurrent, access to and availability of resources are expected to be further hindered for those communities most impacted by these climate extremes. In Guatemala, the effects of a changing climate on marine ecosystems are already being observed (Yon Bosque 2011). Combined with a deficient institutional framework for the conservation of marine biodiversity in coastal areas, climate change has decreased the area originally covered by mangroves by up to 70 percent (Yon Bosque, 2011). In most of the tropical ocean fisheries along the Pacific coast, a reduction in fish catches has also been observed (FAO 2018). By 2050, habitat suitability of all fisheries is projected to decrease from 10.2 to 13.6 percent, and in the case of small pelagic fisheries the figures are estimated to decline by up to 31.2 to 40.2 percent as a result of climate-related impacts (Clarke et al 2021) As climate change continues to undermine the availability and access to natural resources, tensions and conflicts throughout the country are expected to rise (López et al 2021). Surveys indicate that communities in rural areas perceive that the management and distribution of water, as well as the use of forests, are the root causes of agricultural conflicts (Fetzek 2009; Tejiendo Paz 2020). For instance, in the western highlands, reports indicate it is the existence of disputes among farmers over water to irrigate opium poppy crops, which is happening against the backdrop of rising disputes between Mexican cartels in San Marcos, that have forced the government to declare a state of emergency (Gonzalez 2019; Reuters 2017). The lack of water availability could also exacerbate already existing conflicts between local communities and hydropower companies, which have sometimes resulted Climate Security Observatory Series: Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA 13 in the murder or disappearance of activists such as the Rio Negro massacres in the early 1980s and more recently the assassination of an environmental activist in 2017 (Delavelle 2015; Dupont de Dinechin 2022; HRW 2008). For the departments of Izabal, Alta Verapaz, Huehuetenango and Quiché, insecurity driven by climate variability is expected to further exacerbate already prominent protests, as well as conflicts over land due to land grabbing by biofuel, mining, oil and hydroelectric companies (INTRAPAZ 2009). Evidence shows that business activities linked to the cultivation of sugar cane and palm oil, as well as the installation of mining projects and hydroelectric plants have contributed to the forced internal displacement of people, as well as to the rise in local and municipal conflicts due to the consequent soil and land deterioration, in addition to water contamination (Hernández Bonilla et al 2018). “Voices from the field: The effects of climate change interact with structural drivers of marginalization and antagonism, potentially leading to higher conflict risks in the future. Increasing rains during the rainy season, coupled with more frequent flooding, has led to a significant reduction of agricultural and livestock productivity in the community of Tenedores, Morales, in the department of Izabal. Cattle owners are forced to sell their cows before the rainy season, which leads to a drop in cattle market prices and profitability. Similarly, farmers are also struggling to secure a profit under higher risks of crop losses and increasing prices of agricultural inputs. Exacerbating this issue, land tenure is highly insecure and irregular throughout the community, relying on short-term and informal leasing agreements. Land tenure arrangements, perceived as unequal and unfair, are associated with the fuelling of grievances between land owners and land leasers. The availability of alternative livelihood strategies within the community–including sand harvesting, regulated temporary migration to Canada, and working for the banana plantations– have so far mitigated this problem, but community members recognize that the low levels of land availability and tenure are a potential source of conflict amongst neighbours (Medina et al forthcoming). In certain areas of the western highlands and coastal zones, the lack of access to water resources has led to conflicts between different users, including large and small irrigation users (World Bank 2011). Localized transboundary tensions due to Guatemalan and Honduran fishermen’s vessels operating in Belize’s Exclusive Economic Zone have also been identified to be partly driven by the decline of fish stocks on the Guatemalan coasts (Fetzek 2009). Similarly, tensions and attacks have arisen between Guatemalan ‘xateros’ and Belize Defence Forces, due to the former’s illegal crossing of the border to cut xate, a tropical palm frond which is then exported for use in the floral industry (Channel 7 News Archives 2008a; 2008b; Fetzek 2009). Incipient tensions within and among communities linked to the availability and access to water resources from springs have also been identified in the village of El Carpintero in the western highlands where some community members foresee a future escalation of these tensions as drought episodes become longer and more severe (Medina et al forthcoming). While climate change is not the cause of the tensions, its impact is expected to compound declines in agricultural productivity, fish stocks, forest resources, as well as the flow of river systems, thereby creating a context where reduced access and availability of resources could increase and exacerbate social and political tensions (Fetzek 2009). 14 Climate Security Observatory Series : Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA In light of the declining availability and access to natural resources, tensions associated with the distribution and access to basic services, such as electricity and drinking or irrigation water are expected to continue rising (Läderach et al 2021; Medina et al forthcoming). Increased accessibility of mining, cash crops, and deforestation areas have been found to be associated with a higher incidence of conflicts (Läderach et al 2021). Furthermore, communities in areas with weak state presence are characterized by high levels of violence, corruption, organized crime, as well as unequal gender norms (Valencia 2022). Vulnerable areas are identified in regions bordering Mexico, such as the Petén department, and in the Dry Corridor (Pacillo et al 2021; Valencia 2022; WFP et al 2017). Resource availability and access in the Dry Corridor of Guatemala Households situated in the Dry Corridor are particularly exposed to strong precipitation variability and intense droughts (Pacillo et al 2021). The limited adaptative capacity of the rural population, together with their dependence on rain-fed agriculture, has led to widespread food insecurity and poverty in the region (Pacillo et al 2021; WFP et al 2017). While recent surveys show only half of the families in the Dry Corridor own the land that they work on, land plots are not sufficient to cultivate the quantity of food needed for families during the year (Valencia 2022). Changes in rainfall patterns have particularly impacted the agricultural productivity of the region, with rainfall extremes hindering the growth of key crops, such as corn, and consequently contributing to a decline in crop yields (Valencia 2022). Tensions linked to the access, provision and payment of natural resources are correlated with a higher incidence of conflict (López et al 2021; Tejiendo Paz 2020). For instance, in the Sololá department, the Santa Catarina Ixtahuacán and the Nahualá communities have recently experienced an escalation of tensions rooted in the demarcation of municipal borders (ACLED 2022; de la Roca Girón 2021; Hernández Bonilla et al 2018; Tejiendo Paz 2021). Even though they have been in conflict since 1884, inter-communal violence has recently increased during the periods prior to the harvesting season (ACLED 2022; García 2022). Due to the increasing rise of criminal activities in the region, with groups vying to control drug trafficking routes as well as participating in the smuggling of people from these communities to the USA in exchange for property deeds, these tensions have now been further compounded (ACLED 2022; ICG 2017; Tejiendo Paz 2021). Similarly, in the Tajumulco and Ixchiguán municipalities in the San Marcos department, there have been social conflicts over key natural resources such as land and water (Latin News 2017). These tensions have been exacerbated due to the increasing violence linked to narco-trafficking activity, opium poppy cultivation, and a turf war between two Mexican drug cartels: Cartel de Sinaloa and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (Latin News 2017; López 2021). More intense and frequent dry spells, precipitation variability, and extreme events are associated with lower agricultural production and decreasing agricultural land availability, which is likely to lead to resource scarcity and increased competition for land and water resources within and between communities. Considering the already existing insecurity driven by violence and tensions linked to the access, provision, and payment of basic services (i.e., drinking water and electricity), climate-driven resource scarcity may lead to a higher incidence of conflict within and between local communities and the drug cartels. Climate Security Observatory Series: Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA 15 REFERENCES Bermeo, S., Lebland, D., and Nagle Alverio, G. (2022). Rural poverty, climate change, and family migration Ahmed, A., N. S. Mohamed, E. E. Siddig, T Algaily, S. from Guatemala. Brookings: Future Development. ACLED. (2022). 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Climate Change and the Protection of Guatemalan Marine-Coastal (2021d) Personal remittances, received (% of GDP)- Ecosystems. New York: Division for Ocean Affairs and Guatemala. Retrieved from: https://data.worldbank. the Law of the Sea, Office of Legal Affairs, United org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?locations=GT Nations. Retrieved from: https://www.un.org/depts/ (2021e) Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people) – los/nippon/unnff_programme_home/fellows_pages/ Guatemala. Retreived from: https://data.worldbank. fellows_papers/yon_1112_guatemala.pdf org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=GT About CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security CGIAR aims to address gaps in knowledge about climate change and food security for peace and security policies and operations through a unique multidisciplinary approach. Our main objective is to align evidence from the realms of climate, land, and food systems science with peacebuilding efforts already underway that address conflict through evidence-based environmental, political, and socio- economic solutions. 21 Climate Security Observatory Series : Climate Security Pathway Analysis GUATEMALA www.climatesecurity.cgiar.org PHOTO JD MARTINEZ CGIAR