China’s Food and Nutrition Security in New Era Jikun Huang Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy Chinese Academy of Sciences 4个主要观点 4 Major messages 1. 中国在过去食物保障取 得巨大成就和经验 2. 中国正进入食物长期的 短缺新时期 3. 食物和营养安全及目前 政策正面临挑战 4. 未来出路：牢记过去的 经验 + 针对新挑战措施 1. Success & experience in ensuring food security 2. Entering long run food shortage era 3. Food & nutrition security and policy: challenges 4. Where to go: past experience + measures for new challenges Annual growth of agricultural GDP 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 1950s-1970s 1980s-2000s 2.0 4.65 Population Growth rate: 1.8% <1% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Export Import In the past two decades, on average China was a net food exporter. Although recent import > export, total food self-sufficient in 2010 reached 97.6%. China food trade: export and import (bil. US$) in 1992-2010 Except soybean, China achieved high level of food self-sufficiency in 2010 0 20 40 60 80 100 Rural population under poverty (million) 国家贫困线 100 元/人年 0 50 100 150 200 250 19 78 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 94 19 95 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 100CNY per capita 1196CNY per capita 2300CNY per capita 国家贫困线 1196元/人年 国家贫困线 2300元/人年 Question: How have these been achieved? Major drivers of agricultural growth: 4 major policies - Institutional change -Technology -Market - Investment -… However, now China has reached a stage of agricultural development: -- previous challenges intensified -- new challenges emerged Baseline: the net export of agricultural commodities in 2012-2030 (million tons) Source: Simulation by CAPSiM model, Huang et al. (2013) -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 2012 2020 2030 But this baseline has not taken into consideration of the current and future challenges Childhood Anemia (persisting through school age) in the Western China Source: CCAP’s survey % Total 33.7 Shaanxi—2008 (Dataset 1) 37.5 Shanxi—2009 (Dataset 2) 31.6 Gansu—2010 (Dataset 3) 31.2 Qinghai—2009 (Dataset 4) 51.1 Ningxia—2009 (Dataset 5) 25.4 Sichuan—2010 (Dataset 6) 24.8 Guizhou—2010 (Dataset 7) 33.1 营养不良人口: 1.51亿 Malnutrition population: 151 million (FAO, 2015) Food and nutrition security in new era: Challenges  供需缺口逐渐扩大  营养和食品安全  地板上升进入新阶段  价格逼近天花板  水土资源短缺日趋严重  科技创新与农民需求  气候变化加大风险  Enlarging food shortage  Nutrition + Safety  Cost rising in new era  Price  Pd + 65%  Rising water/land scarcity  S&T innovation=farmer D?  Climate change and risk Composition of farm gate price: cereal 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 P r i ce s t r uc tu re ( y u a n/ kg ) Land/labor/profit Seed Fertilizer Machinery Others 粮食作物平均收购价格变化及其成本构成（1999－2010） Composition of farm gate price: vegetable + fruit 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P r i ce s t r uc tu r e ( y u an /k g) Land/labor/profit Seed Fertilizer Machinery Others 果蔬收购价格变化及其成本构成（1999－2010） CCAP survey: • 2005-2013：8% of annual growth rate of real labor cost • 2008-2013：10% of annual growth rate of real land rent Market price vs minimal price (yuan/kg) Indica rice Japonic rice Wheat 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 最低收购价 市场价 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 最低收购价 市场价 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 最低收购价 收购市场价 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 国内批发价 进口到岸价 Consequences: use wheat as case • Enlarging price gap • Rising import pressure • Import  Storage↑ Domestic price CIF Food and nutrition security in new era: Challenges  供需缺口逐渐扩大  营养和食品安全  地板上升进入新阶段  价格逼近天花板  水土资源短缺日趋严重  科技创新与农民需求  气候变化加大风险  Enlarging food shortage  Nutrition + Safety  Cost rising in new era  Price  Pd + 65%  Rising water/land scarcity  S&T innovation=farmer D?  Climate change and risk 主要挑战和过去经验 Challenges and past experience 制度创新 Institution 技术进步 Technology 市场改革 Market 农业投入 Investment 供需缺口 Import +++ +++++ ++ +++++ 营养安全 Nutrition ++ +++ ++ +++ 成本上升 Cost rise +++ +++++ ++ ++++ 价格天花板 Pd+65% ++ +++++ +++ ++++ 水土短缺 Water/land +++ ++++ +++ ++++ 科技创新 S&T ++++ +++++ +++ ++ 气候变化 Climate C. +++ +++++ ++ +++++ 主要挑战和目前政策 Challenges and current policies 农业补贴 Subsidy 托市政策 Price support 技术进步 Technology 农业投入 Investment 供需缺口 Import 0 - - - ++++ ++++ 营养安全 Nutrition 0 0 +++ ++ 成本上升 Cost rise 0 0 ++++ +++ 价格天花板 Pd+65% 0 - - - ++++ +++ 水土短缺 Water/land - 0 ++++ ++++ 科技创新 S&T 0 0 ++++ ++ 气候变化 Climate C. 0 0 ++++ ++++ 财政支出 Budget: ***** **** * *** 4个主要观点 4 Major messages 1. 中国在过去食物保障取 得巨大成就和经验 2. 中国正进入食物长期的 短缺新时期 3. 食物和营养安全及目前 政策正面临挑战 4. 未来出路： – 牢记过去经验：4大法宝 – 针对新挑战措施 • 营养/食品安全 • 成本上升 • 水土/可持续发展 1. Success & experience in ensuring food security 2. Entering long run food shortage era 3. Food & nutrition security and policy: challenges 4. Where to go： – Past 4 experiences – Measures for new challenges • Nutrition and safety • Rising labor/land cost • Wate/land/sustainable Slide Number 1 4个主要观点 4 Major messages Annual growth of agricultural GDP Slide Number 4 Except soybean, China achieved high level of food self-sufficiency in 2010 Rural population under poverty (million) Slide Number 7 Major drivers of agricultural growth: �4 major policies Slide Number 9 Baseline: the net export of agricultural commodities in 2012-2030 (million tons) Slide Number 11 Childhood Anemia (persisting through school age) in the Western China Food and nutrition security in new era: Challenges Composition of farm gate price: cereal Composition of farm gate price: vegetable + fruit Market price vs minimal price�(yuan/kg) Slide Number 17 Food and nutrition security in new era: Challenges 主要挑战和过去经验 Challenges and past experience 主要挑战和目前政策 Challenges and current policies 4个主要观点 4 Major messages