Research for development series R4D paper 03 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Fishery productivity and its contribution to overall agricultural production in the Lower Mekong River Basin Mohammed Mainuddin Mac Kirby Yun Chen About the CPWF R4D (Research for Development) Series The CPWF R4D (Research for Development) Series is one of the main publication channels of the program. Papers within the series present new thinking, ideas and perspectives from CPWF research with a focus on the implications for development and research into use. Papers are based on finalized research or emerging research results. In both instances, papers are peer reviewed and findings are based on on sound scientific evidence and data though these may be incomplete at the time of publication. The series brings together multi-disciplinary research, global syntheses and findings that have implications for development practition- ers at various levels. Copyright © 2011, CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food Unless otherwise noted, you are free to may copy, duplicate or reproduce, and distribute, display, or transmit any part of this paper or portions thereof without permission, and to make translations, adaptations or other derivative works under the following conditions: ATTRIBUTION. The work must be attributed, but not in any way that suggests endorsement by CPWF or the author(s). NON-COMMERCIAL. This work may not be used for commercial purposes. SHARE ALIKE. If this work is altered, transformed, or built upon, the resulting work must be distributed only under the same or similar license to this one. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of CPWF, the authors’ institutions or the financial sponsors of this publication. Citation Mainuddin, M., Kirby, M. and Y. Chen. 2011. Fishery productivity and its contribution to overall agricultural production in the Lower Mekong River Basin. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program for Water and Food (CPWF). 48p. (CPWF Research for Development Series 03). Editing by Kingsley Kurukulasuriya Design and layout by Thomas Meadley Cover photo: MRC: Neak Leoung - Cut Mosquito Traps, Cambodia. Research for development series - 03 Fishery productivity and its contribution to overall agricultural production in the Lower Mekong River Basin. Mohammed Mainuddin Mac Kirby Yun Chen . 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Acknowledgements ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THE PROJECT This paper has been developed under Basin Focal Project of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. AUTHOR’S ORGANIZATIONS CPWF DONORS Enabling poor rural people to overcome poverty ii 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Table of contents Acknowledgements ii Acronyms v Executive summary 1 1. Introduction 2 1.1 A note on definitions – production, productivity and the gross value of production 2 2. Data sources 4 2.1 Literature sources of data 5 2.2 Official statistics 6 2.3 Concluding remarks 10 3. Results and discussion 11 3.1 Fish price, production and gross value of production in Laos 11 3.2 Fish price, production and GVP in Thailand 14 3.3 Fish price, production and GVP in Cambodia 16 3.4 Fish price, production and GVP in Viet Nam 18 3.5 Varying estimates of overall production 21 3.6 Regional and temporal trends in production and value 24 4. Threats and opportunities for Mekong fish production 27 5. Conclusions 30 References 32 CPWF R4D 03 iii 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 List of figures Figure 1. Contribution of different sectors on overall production of Laos 13 Figure 2. Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sector of Laos 13 Figure 3. GVP from different sectors of Thailand 15 Figure 4. Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sector of Thailand 15 Figure 5. Monthly average catch fish price for Cambodia 16 Figure 6. Contribution of different sector on overall agricultural production of Cambodia 17 Figure 7. Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sector of Cambodia 17 Figure 8. Production from different fisheries sectors in Viet Nam 18 Figure 9. Contribution of different sector on overall agricultural production of Viet Nam 19 Figure 10. Contribution of different sector on overall agricultural production of the 20 Mekong Delta of Viet Nam Figure 11. Contribution of different sector on overall agricultural production of the 20 central highlands of Viet Nam Figure 12. Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sector of Viet Nam 20 Figure 13. Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sector of the 21 Mekong Delta of Viet Nam Figure 14. Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sector of the 21 central highlands of Viet Nam Figure 15. Consumption figures from FAOSTAT (2007) 23 Figure 16. Capture fish production from official statistics 24 Figure 17. Aquaculture production from official statistics 24 Figure 18. Total fish production from official statistics 25 Figure 19. Value of total fish production from official statistics 25 Figure 20. GVP of fisheries as percentage of GVP of rice 26 Figure 21. GVP of all fisheries as % of GVP of crops, livestock and fisheries 26 List of tables Table 1. Source of capture fish price in Cambodia 8 Table 2. Sources for provincial population data used in the analysis 9 Table 3. Sources for currency conversions to US$ used in the analysis 10 Table 4. Market price of fresh fish in the Lao PDR, average of eight provinces 11 (National Statistics Centre, 2003, 2004a, 2005) Table 5. Fish price in the markets of Vientiane and Luang Prabang (Phonvisay et al., 2005) 11 Table 6. Production and GVP of capture fisheries in Laos according to FAOSTAT (2007) 12 Table 7. Production of fisheries by province based on the LECS survey (2002-03) 12 Table 8. Average price of fish in the Bangkok auction market 14 Table 9. Production of freshwater capture fisheries of Thailand, from FAOSTAT (2007) 14 Table 10. Average fish prices in Viet Nam 18 Table 11. Production and per capita consumption, lowest and highest estimates 22 List of boxes Box 1. Season of operation 8 iv 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Acronyms CPWF CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization FAOSTAT FAO Statistical Database LECS Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey GVP Gross Value of Production MRC Mekong River Commission CPWF R4D 03 v 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Houseboat rafts with cages under for rearing fish. Near My Tho, Mekong Delta, Viet Nam vi Source: Bill Bailey, Wikipedia 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Executive summary The Mekong River and its ecosystems have one of the most diverse and abundant fisheries in the world. The fisheries are a major factor in the well-being and livelihoods of the nearly 70 million people especially in the lower Mekong Basin who derive their livelihood from fishery and also depend on fish and other aquatic animals for nutrition and food security. Fishery production and value have been the subject of many studies and some data are available from national and international statistical databases. None of these, however, offer a reliable, consistent set of data on the spatial and temporal trends at a similar level of resolution across the basin. Because of the shortcomings in the data, there are major uncertainties in estimates of fishery production and its value in the four countries of the lower Mekong Basin: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Catch surveys tend to underestimate the production, while consumption-based estimates are regarded as more reliable indicators. We combined official statistics with several consumption-based estimates to examine the spatial and temporal trends in production and value of capture fish and aquaculture. The highest estimates of production range from 42 kg/capita/year in the Lao PDR to 65 kg/capita/year in Cambodia, the latter figure being comparable to consumption in Japan. Production is dominated by capture fisheries in Cambodia (where it is concentrated around the Tonle Sap and the Mekong River), Laos and Thailand. In Viet Nam, aquaculture dominates production and is concentrated around the main rivers in the delta and along the coastal strip. While there are uncertainties in the data, it appears that production until 2005 from capture fisheries has not increased significantly in all the four lower Mekong countries. In aquaculture, there has been a large increase in production in the Mekong Delta region of Viet Nam since about 2000. The highest estimates of value, using consumption-based estimates of production, mainly from capture fisheries, give an annual value of about US$3 billion. Other estimates place the overall value somewhat lower. The value is probably not changing greatly with time. Aquaculture in Viet Nam is rapidly increasing in value, matching the increase in production, and in 2005 was worth over US$1 billion. The contribution of the fishing sector to overall agricultural production (crops, livestock and fish) is small in the Lao PDR and Thailand, but larger in Cambodia and growing in Viet Nam. The demand for fish products will rise in the future, partly as a result of increasing population in the region and partly as a result of increasing incomes. Moreover, there may also be a continuing rise in the export of fish products. The lower Mekong fisheries face threats to production from changed water availability and quality, dams and other barriers affecting fish migration and productivity, and over- fishing. If the increased demand is to be met, these threats must be managed so that production, especially of wild capture fish, does not decline. The increasing demand appears unlikely to be met through an increase in production of capture fisheries. The current rapid growth of aquaculture, if it can be maintained, does appear capable of meeting the demand. There are neither quantitative estimates of the limits to growth of this industry, however, nor whether it will pose risks for the capture fisheries since aquaculture needs huge quantities of fish fry as feed. Rice-fish farming may also contribute to increased fish production, but again the impact appears not to have been quantified. CPWF R4D 03 1 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 1. Introduction The Mekong River basin is a dynamic, productive, and diverse river basin. Over 70 million people live in the Mekong River Basin (Mekong River Commission, 2006), most of whom are rural poor with livelihoods directly dependent on the availability of water for the production of food. Agriculture, together with fishing and forestry, employs 85% of the people living in the basin, many at subsistence level (Mekong River Commission, 2003). Whilst living standards have generally increased markedly across the basin, there remain important areas of poverty. The Mekong River and its ecosystems have one of the most diverse and abundant fisheries in the world (Mekong River Commission, 2003). The lower Mekong River ecosystems with its extensive associated floodplains and wetlands supports important inland fisheries (Baran et al., 2007). The fisheries are a major factor in the well-being and livelihoods of the people who live in the lower Mekong Basin (Mekong River Commission, 2005). Some 40 million people or two-thirds of the basin’s population are involved in fishing, at least part-time or seasonally. Not only do they derive their livelihood from fishing, they also depend on fish and other aquatic animals for food security (Mekong River Commission, 2003). Fish and other aquatic animals are the most important sources of animal protein, and thus a major support to food security, in particular for the rural population in the lower Mekong Basin (Van Zalinge et al., 2003). Fishing is important for the basin economics and productivity analysis, particularly for Cambodia and Viet Nam. In the Lao PDR, fish is second only to rice for food security and income (Nguyen-Khoa et al., 2005). However, increasing competition for the use of water resources and high population growth in riparian countries have increased pressure on the distribution of these resources and reduced fisheries production (Chong et al., undated). There are many studies of the fisheries of the Mekong, but there no precise estimates of the total fishery production (Rab et al., 2005). Moreover, there are no studies on fishery productivity for the whole lower Mekong basin below the country level, or at least none that compare the contribution of this sector to overall agricultural production, and even fewer that give trends, and again, none for the whole of the lower basin. Most of the studies provide aggregated, country-level information for a season or for a year. Few examine to what extent the likely increase in demand for fish in future decades might be met by the basin’s fisheries. Furthermore, many estimates in the literature, such as those reviewed recently by Baran et al. (2007), appear to use data only up to 2000, and miss the recent developments in aquaculture. This working paper analyses the fishery productivity of the basin both spatially and temporally. We compare the contribution of fisheries to the overall agricultural production with those of the crop and the livestock sectors, and we discuss the level of likely future demand and the prospects for the fisheries of the basin to meet the demand. The remainder of the paper consists of four more sections. In Section 2, we review the available literature and data, including official statistics of production. In Section 3 we discuss the information on fish production and consumption, and the spatial and temporal trends. In Section 4 we review future demand, and the threats to and opportunities for fish production. In Section 5 we draw conclusions. 1.1 A note on definitions: production, productivity and the gross value of production Production of fish can sometimes mean biological production, i.e. the total biomass of fish and other aquatic animals. More often it refers to the yield, that is the amount of fish removed from a fishery by fishing (Hortle and Bush, 2003). Here we use production in the latter sense, to mean the amount of fish and other aquatic animals removed from a fishery. Productivity, in general terms, is the ratio between a unit of output and a unit of input. The most encompassing measure of productivity used by economists is total factor productivity, which is defined as the value of all outputs 2 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 divided by the value of all inputs. However, partial factor productivity is more widely used by both economists and non-economists alike. Partial factor productivity is relatively easy to measure and is commonly used to measure the return to scarce or limited resources, such as land or labour (Barker et al., 2003). In case of river fisheries, the total catch is the output, which in principle is well defined and measurable. But there is no defined or measurable input. Production from river fisheries is influenced by a number of factors of which the most important are water level, the duration and timing of the flood, the regulation of flooding, the characteristics of the flooded zone, migration routes, and dry season refuges (Welcomme, 1985; Baran and Cain, 2001). For aquaculture, the inputs such as water, feed, land and labour are well defined and in principle, easy to measure. Due to lack of data, however, we were unable to estimate the water requirements and other inputs for aquaculture production. In this study, we define fishery productivity as production and gross value of production (GVP) per capita. GVP can be defined as in equation (i): GVP ($) = Production of the fishery (tonne) x Landing price of fish ($/tonne) (i) Fisheries comprise both inland capture fisheries and aquaculture and we have estimated GVP for both. We give all economic data in US dollars. Generally, we distinguish three domains where river fisheries accrue benefits: economic, social and ecological (Cowx et al., 2003). Total economic value of river fisheries can be divided into the value of direct use and the value of non-use/preservation (Cowx et al., 2003). In this study, we consider only the direct use values of fisheries. The Lower Mekong River CPWF R4D 03 3 Source: Mohammed Mainuddin 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 2. Data sources There are estimates of fish production in the countries of the lower Mekong Basin in statistical databases and in various reports and papers. The databases give production statistics and often economic information. In the case of Cambodia and Viet Nam, these also give a provincial breakdown of the data. The papers and reports, particularly the more recent ones, tend to use different methods of estimation, and give different and often much higher values of production. They generally have fewer temporal and spatial trend data (usually a single production figure for a whole country for one year), and often give production with less attention to economic data. There are three main methods to estimate fishery production (Hortle and Bush, 2003): • catch surveys (catch per fisher multiplied by the number of fishers) may give accurate estimates in fisheries dominated by single species, but in fisheries such as the Mekong, large errors result from the diversity of species, fishers and their gear, and the variability of the fishery temporally and spatially; • trade and marketing surveys, which are problematic in the Mekong because many fish are consumed locally without being formally marketed and traded may anyway be under-reported; • habitat and yield surveys (area of habitat multiplied by the yield per area), which suffer from difficulties in measuring the area flooded (an important factor in fish production in the Mekong), the diversity of habitats, and confounding factors such as fishing intensity; and • consumption surveys, which may be accurate when wild-capture fish are all caught and consumed locally, but which require care in accounting for wastage, imports, exports, and aquaculture production (especially if the latter uses fish from elsewhere as feed). The statistical databases generally are based on catch surveys, and are thought to ignore much of the production (Coates, 2002; Hortle and Bush, 2003). According to Coates (2002) and Sverdrup-Jensen (2002) existing official statistics on inland fisheries grossly under-report catches, are often not based on field work and may not consider small-scale family fishing since these fisheries have always been considered of minor importance to the national economy. Most large-scale capture fisheries data are also inaccurate (Coates, 2002; Sverdrup-Jensen, 2002). In the case of Cambodia, Coates (2002) shows that data before 1999 are effectively meaningless. Much of the earlier literature was also based on catch surveys, often using the database information. More recent literature is based mainly on consumption surveys (e.g. Hortle, 2007; Hortle and Suntornratana, 2008). This has led to production estimates that are higher than in both the older literature and the statistical databases. Notwithstanding the difficulties in the available national statistics, they do give information about spatial and temporal trends, and also about economics, which are generally lacking in the published literature. Therefore, aiming to combine the better estimates of the recent literature with other information from the statistics, we present data from both sources, although we stress the difficulties with the statistics. We shall use figures only from 1999 onwards from the national statistics, since figures earlier than that, at least in the case of Cambodia, are meaningless (Coates, 2002). We shall also make two salient points with the national statistics. Firstly, they appear to be the only source of information that demonstrates quantitatively the recent rapid and large expansion of aquaculture in the delta. Also, while there is agreement that they are underestimates of the true production, and probably gross underestimates, even these underestimates point to a food production that is more important than livestock production in the region. In this section, we list both principal sources of data. In the case of the statistical databases, we also describe our methods of analyzing them. 4 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 2.1 Literature sources of data The Fisheries Program of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) is a major source of information. It concentrates on knowledge generation, raising the awareness of fisheries in the Mekong and improving fishery management, particularly promoting community involvement in the management processes. It also has a strong emphasis on implementation, uptake and impact of fishery information into planning and development decisions in the basin (http://www.mrcmekong.org/programmes/fisheries.htm). The programme researches into capture fisheries and produces papers, technical reports, development series reports, fishery newsletters and films and Technical Advisory Body management briefs. The papers and reports are available in the MRC website (www. mrcmekong.org) and in ‘Fisheries Information in the lower Mekong Basin Version 1’ (CD) published by the MRC. We concentrate on the subset of reports and papers that are concerned with aspects of fishery production. There is no system in the Lower Mekong River Basin for effective collection of basin-wide statistical data on fisheries and therefore very limited data are available on fishery production. To address this, the MRC undertook socio-economic surveys (to estimate production using fish consumption) and catch assessment surveys. According to Van Zalinge (2002), the latest and most comprehensive independent data are largely based on these surveys. More recent reviews include Baran et al., (2007) and Hortle (2007). Although official production data are generally unreliable, Van Zalinge et al. (2000) made estimates based on official data for the inland capture fisheries for 2000 in the lower Mekong Basin. More recent (consumption- based) estimates include Sverdrup-Jensen (2002), Van Zalinge et al. (2003) (also reported in Hortle and Bush, 2003) and Hortle (2007). Sverdrup-Jensen (2002) and MRC (2005) give estimates of the monetary value of fisheries in the countries of the lower Mekong Basin. Hortle (2007) reviewed estimates for the whole lower Mekong Basin. Phillips (2002) examined aquaculture in all the countries of the Mekong Basin, based on official government statistics and household consumption surveys, and gives the estimated total production and value in 1999/2000. Apart from those reports that discuss fish production across the lower Mekong Basin, several studies discuss aspects in more detail in the individual countries. Phonvisay et al. (2005) and Bouakhamvongsa et al. (2005) describe fisheries in the Lao PDR in more detail, noting the importance of fish both as sources of food and of income, but give no data on production or economic value. Coates (2002) noted the general difficulty with official statistics in the Lao PDR, describing them as relatively meaningless, and reviewed evidence that the actual production was far higher than the official estimates. Bouakhamvongsa et al. (2005) describe a survey of eighteen typical fishers who recorded their daily catches over one year in 2004. However, the data from this programme has not yet been released. Meusch et al. (2003), in a study aimed primarily at nutrition and health, reported the consumption in the Lao PDR of various food groups including fish. The number of farmers involved in aquaculture in the Lao PDR has increased since then (Phimmachak and Chanthavong, 2005). Khumsri et al. (2005), Sjorslev (2001) and Hortle and Suntornratana (2008) discussed the importance of fish for households and communities as sources of food and income in the Nam Songkhram Basin in northeast Thailand and Sjorslev et al. (2000) estimated the catch in the basin. Nachaipherm et al. (2002) studied the fishing activities and made a catch assessment of three reservoirs (Nam Oon, Kaeng Lawa and Huai Muk) to obtain data on which to develop management plans. Nakkaew et al. (2001) reported the fishing activities and catch in Huai Luang reservoir in Udon Thani province of northeast Thailand. Prapertchop (1989) reported fish consumption in northeast Thailand, and Coates (2002) reported both average catch per capita and the estimated total production. Mahasarakarm (2007) gave production figures based on consumption estimates, and also noted the value of fisheries in northeast Thailand. Not all fish consumed in the region are from the local production: they are also imported from other regions of Thailand and from Cambodia (often smuggled) (Van Zalinge et al., 2001; Yim and McKenney, 2003a, 2003b, 2003c; Bush, 2004). Van Zalinge and Touch (1996) and Diep et al. (1998) assessed the Cambodian inland catch based on stratified random sampling of the catch (by species and gear) and provide survey information on fishing gear. CPWF R4D 03 5 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Ahmed et al. (1998) undertook a baseline socio-economic survey of households covering eight fishing provinces around the Tonle Sap Lake during 1995-1996, and provided estimates for the total inland catch of Cambodia. Petracchi (1999a), in a study aimed primarily at nutrition and health, reported the consumption in Cambodia of various food groups including fish. Navy and Bhattarai (2006) evaluated the economic cost, profitability and sustainability of small-scale inland capture fisheries of three selected fishing communities in three provinces of Cambodia. Nam (2000) studied the contribution of inland fisheries to the Cambodian economy. Hortle et al. (2004) also studied the value of the catch, and suggested that both its size and value were underestimated due to poor and incomplete figures. Lam et al. (2002) carried out a household survey of inland fisheries activities and fish consumption in Tra Vinh province, Viet Nam, as part of the MRC coordinated surveys. Tien et al. (2005) reported a study that monitored the catches of 13 fishers, carried out as a trial over a one-year period from key sites in the Mekong Delta. Kaufmann (2003), in a study aimed primarily at nutrition and health, reported the consumption in the Lao PDR of various food groups including fish. 2.2 Official statistics 2.2.1 Capture-fishery production As discussed in Data Sources in section 2, there are uncertainties in the production data of capture fisheries published by government agencies of the respective countries, and doubts exist as to their usefulness particularly prior to 1999 in Cambodia (e.g. Coates, 2002). However, they are the only source of information that demonstrates quantitatively the recent rapid and large expansion of aquaculture in the delta. Nevertheless, under-estimates as they may be, they still show that fish are a more important source of food than livestock. We shall therefore present the figures from 1999 onwards, but with a caution that the figures do not represent the true production. Lao PDR: The Lao PDR has a weak system of statistical data collection, with information based entirely on estimates, which under-reports the catches at village level (Coates, 2002). Historic country-wide freshwater capture-fish production is available in the FAOSTAT database (FAOSTAT, 2007). Household-level data of fish production (in local currency) by province are available in The Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey (LECS) (National Statistics Centre, 2004b). LECS is the largest and most important survey that the National Statistical Centre undertakes. Its sample size is large, and it also covers a wide range of subjects related to household livelihoods, and is carried out over the whole year. The results in this report are based on data obtained from sample villages and extrapolated to provide an estimate of all households in the Lao PDR. Thailand: Coates (2002) reports that the statistical survey methods in Thailand ignore rivers and wetlands, and are thus biased towards reservoirs. In addition, even those estimates are likely to underestimate the actual production. Fresh water capture fish production for the whole country is taken from the FAOSTAT database (FAOSTAT, 2007). The areas of Thailand within the Mekong Basin are only 36% (Mekong River Commission, 2003) of the total country area. In the absence of the data by province, we consider the country average production per capita as equal to the production per capita of the Mekong region of Thailand. Cambodia: Coates (2002) reports that the collection of statistics in Cambodia is inadequate, with widespread under-reporting. The problem was particularly serious before 1999, after which the extent of the underestimates was reduced, but subsequent estimates are still believed to be significant underestimates. We used historical production data available by province in the Statistical Yearbook 2005 (National Institute of Statistics, 2005) in the analysis. Freshwater fisheries in Cambodia are organized at three levels: (1) family (subsistence) fishing or small-scale fishing, (2) middle-scale (artisanal) fishing, (3) large-scale (industrial fishing) (Department of Fisheries, 2001a). Family and rice field fisheries were not considered in the official statistics until 1998 (Department of Fisheries, 2001b). Therefore the reported total fish production before 1999 was considerably lower than post-1999. 6 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Viet Nam: Coates (2002) reports that the statistical surveys in Viet Nam are biased strongly towards aquaculture, and mostly under-report capture-fishery production. There are major discrepancies in capture-fishery production figures amongst provinces, with the extremely unlikely reporting in 1999 that one province accounted for 86% of the total national freshwater capture-fish production. According to Tien et al. (2005), official statistics for capture fishery production cover large commercial gear, for which catches may be under-reported. Viet Nam fisheries production is available from the General Statistical Office of Viet Nam (http://www.gso. gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=469&idmid=3). The database includes different types of fisheries production by province, and the value of their combined output. Fisheries in Viet Nam are divided into two major categories: caught aquatic product and farmed aquatic product. Total fishery production, which is referred to as the total aquatic product, is the sum of caught aquatic product and farmed aquatic product. Caught aquatic product and farmed aquatic product are further classified as follows: • Caught aquatic product = Caught fish from sea + Caught other aquatic product from sea + Inland catch (fish and others) • Farmed aquatic product = Farmed fish + Shrimp + Others (other than fish and shrimp) Cambodia, the Lao PDR and Thailand do not have any costal provinces within the Mekong River Basin. Therefore, for cross-country comparison of the indicators, we did not consider the capture marine fisheries (fish and other aquatic products caught from the sea) of Viet Nam for the main analysis. However, we shall discuss separately the contribution of marine fisheries to the overall production. 2.2.2 Aquaculture production Lao PDR: Few data are available on the farmed fish or aquaculture in the Lao PDR. Nonetheless, there are aquaculture farms as a large number of cultured fish are sold in the markets in Vientiane from aquaculture farms close to the city or imported from Thailand (Phonvisay et al., 2005). Data on the number of agricultural holdings engaged in aquaculture according to the first agricultural census undertaken in the Lao PDR in 1998/99 (http:// www.maf.gov.la/Census/Aquaculture/aquaculture.html). No other data are available on aquaculture production in the Lao PDR. In the productivity analysis, therefore, we did not consider aquaculture production. Thailand: Aquaculture in Thailand is very well developed. However, data on production were not available at the time when the analysis was done. Cambodia: In the analysis, we used historical production data, which are available by province in the Statistical Yearbook 2005 (National Institute of Statistics, 2005). Presently, small-scale aquaculture is being developed rapidly in Cambodia (Ngeth et al., 2005). Viet Nam: We considered aquaculture production in Viet Nam as the farmed aquatic products available in the website of the General Statistical Office (http://www.gso.gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=469&idmid=3). 2.2.3 Fish price We used fish price estimates to calculate the economic value (gross value of production) from the fish production data, where the gross value of production was not given directly in the data we consulted. Lao PDR: the National Statistical Centre of the Lao PDR publishes market price of fresh and fermented fish with the price of other commodities in the Statistical Yearbook (National Statistics Centre, 2003, 2004a and 2005). There has never been a full study of fish marketing in the Lao PDR (Phonvisay, 2001). Phonvisay (2001) conducted an initial fish marketing survey in Thongkhankham and Thatluang markets, but it was only done for one day, and was generalized. Phonvisay (2003) further studied fish marketing operations in Luang Prabang CPWF R4D 03 7 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Province, but again, this was just a snapshot survey. Phonvisay et al. (2005) later tried a more systematic approach by monitoring fish sales at the three markets in Vientiane and Luang Prabang in 2004. For the economic analysis of fisheries, we considered the landing price of fish, not the retail market price. In estimating the total value of fisheries based on the FAO production data, we used the following assumptions: • The average of the 8 provinces as described in the Statistical Yearbook published by the National Statistical Centre of Lao PDR; • The retail or market price is 50% higher than the landing price (Van Zalinge 2002); • The landing price given by the National Statistics Centre; and • The price in 1999 was the same as that in 2000. Thailand: Fish Marketing Organization of Thailand monitors the freshwater fish prices auctioned at the Bangkok fish market. These data are available in the Statistical Yearbooks published by the Office of the Agricultural Economics of the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperative of the Royal Thai Government http://www.oae.go.th/ English/statE.htm. We considered the average price of the common fish species in the markets (snakehead, cat fish, white spotted fish, swamp eel, climbing perch, carp and cat fish) in the analysis. Cambodia: Unlike the production data, there are no data on fish prices in the Statistical Year Books. Official statistics on average monthly market (retail) price of capture fish is available only in a report (Department of Fisheries, 2001a) published by the Department of Fisheries from January 1996 to June 2000. Some more information on fish price is available in different published papers as shown in Table 1. Table 1: Source of capture fish price in Cambodia Source Description Ngor et al. (2005) Price of dai trey linh (bag-net or stationary trawl fishery) fishery on the Tonle Touch (Touch River) during the 2003 season. Rab et al. (2006) Landing price of capture fish in Kampong Chhnang, Kandal, Phnom Penh and Siem Reap provinces for the closed season of 2003 (August 2003) and open season of 2004 (February 2004) (see Box 1). Khay and Hortle (2003) Open season retail price in Phonm Penh market in 2003. Naret et al. (2000) Landing price of fish in Kandal, Takeo and Prey Veng provinces for 1999. Pengbun et al. (2005) Landing price of 2003 in Prey Veng province Box 1. Season of operation The fishing calendar in Cambodia is divided into two seasons: open (October-May) and closed (June-September). The small-scale fishing is allowed at all times of the year, but some with restrictions imposed, mainly on fishing types and gears. In contrast, middle and large-scale fishing are allowed only in the open season and require licenses issued by the Department of Fisheries (DoF, 2001a). Fish prices in Cambodia vary from season to season. All species sell for a higher price in the closed season from June to September than the open season (Rab et al., 2006). Among the species, larger species are generally more valuable than the smaller species (Ngor et al., 2005). However, in estimating gross value of production we used the average annual price. Using the data from all these sources, we estimated the average fish price by province based on the following assumptions: 8 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 • The landing price of capture fisheries in 2000 were estimated from the average price from Department of Fisheries (2001a), taking the retail or market price as 50% higher than the landing price (Van Zalinge 2002). Van Zalinge (2002) estimated the landing price of fish in Cambodia as $200 million and the retail price as $300 million i.e. the retail price is 50% higher than the landing price; • The price is same in all the provinces; • The landing price of fish in Kandal, Takeo and Prey Veng provinces for 1999 was assumed to be the same as that in Naret et al. (2000). The price in the remaining provinces was considered as the average of the prices available; • The landing price for 2003 and 2004 in Kompong Chhnang, Kompong Thom, Siem Reap and Pursat provinces was taken from Rab et al. (2006). The price in Banteay Meanchey, Battambang, Oudor Meanchey and Krong Pailin provinces were considered the same as that in Siem Reap. The price in Kampot, Takeo, and Prey Veng provinces were considered the same as that in Phnom Penh. The price in Kompong Cham was considered to be the average of that in Kompong Chhnang and Phnom Penh. The price in the remaining provinces was considered to be average of that in Kompong Chhnang and Siem Reap; and • The price in 2002 was considered equal to the average of the 2001 and 2003 prices. Viet Nam: Details of fish production and output value of fishing are available in the website of the General Statistical Office of Viet Nam. No fish price data are directly available in that site. However, our purpose is to review the total value, so we use the total value data directly. 2.2.4 Population The sources of the provincial population of the countries used in the analysis are given in Table 2. Table 2: Sources for provincial population data used in the analysis Country Source Lao PDR National Statistics Centre (National Statistics Centre, 2003, 2004a, and 2005) Cambodia Provincial population of 1998: Cambodian Government website (http://www.cambodia. gov.kh/unisql1/egov/ english/organ.admin.html) Provincial population of 2001: Fertilizer Advisory, Development and Information Network for Asia and the Pacific (FADINAP) website (http://www.fadinap.org/cambodia/ Agstat20002001/population.htm) Provincial population growth rate: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Cambodia (http://www.maff.gov.kh/statistics/index.html) Thailand Provincial population for 1990 and 2000 and the growth rate: National Statistical Office of Thailand (http://web.nso.go.th/ pop2000/table/tab2.pdf) Viet Nam Yearly provincial population: General Statistical Office of Viet Nam (http://www.gso.gov.vn) The population of Cambodia and Thailand for other years was estimated from the available data using equation (ii), which is used by the National Statistical Office of Thailand. r ln(Pn+t / Pn ) = *100 t (ii) Where, r = Population growth rate (percent per year) Pn = Population in year n Pn+t = Population in year n + t CPWF R4D 03 9 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 2.2.5 Currency exchange rates The source of currency conversions to US$ used in the analysis is given in Table 3. Table 3: Sources for currency conversions to US$ used in the analysis Country Unit Source Cambodia Riel The General Statistical Office of Viet Nam (http://www.gso.gov.vn/default_ en.aspx?tabid=491) Lao PDR Kip Thailand Baht http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/USDpages.pdf Viet Nam Dong The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations (UNESCAP) (http://www.unescap.org/stat/data/statind/datatable.aspx) and from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_historical_exchange_rates#Table http://www. jeico.com/cnc57vtn.html 2.2.6 Crop and livestock productivity We compared the fisheries productivity with the productivity of crops and livestock to see the relative contribution of different sectors to overall agricultural production at the country level. Mainuddin et al. (2008) estimated detail crop and livestock productivity by province for the lower Mekong Basin. We used the results from that report to compare with the fishery productivity. 2.3 Concluding remarks There are many methods of estimating fishery production based on catch surveys, consumption surveys, trade and marketing surveys, and estimates of production per unit area of different water bodies. In the lower Mekong Basin, national statistics, which are generally based on local assessment and reporting of catches, have been shown to be gross underestimates of the true production and often biased towards some fishing sectors, such as reservoir catch in Thailand and aquaculture in Viet Nam. Coates (2002) reported in 1999 that the ratio of the best estimate to the officially reported value was 1.25-1.86 in Cambodia, 5.9-7.8 in the Lao PDR, 0.5-1.4 in Thailand and 8.0-10.6 in Viet Nam. Cambodia corrected the fisheries production after 1998 with better reporting and by including the small-scale fisheries. The better estimates based on consumption surveys are, unfortunately, available mainly based on surveys in 2000 only, and trends in production cannot be gauged from this information alone. The situation is highly unsatisfactory. On the one hand, the trend information, the only information consistently available at province level, is highly dubious. On the other hand, the only information regarded as reasonably reliable contains little trend or spatial content. Faced with this highly unsatisfactory situation, we have elected to consider both main sources of information, the national statistics (but only from 1999 onwards), and the literature-based consumption surveys. We suggest that, notwithstanding the highly dubious nature of the national statistics, one or two observations emerge from them that are much harder to discern from the literature of consumption surveys, in particular the recent rapid rise of aquaculture in the delta. The final key point to emerge simply from a survey of the methods (without even considering the data) is that the estimation of production and its trend is an area in urgent need of more frequent surveys and better data. Fishery management and policy will both benefit from increased effort. 10 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 3. Results and discussion In this section, we discuss the price, production and gross value of production by country, and compare the fishery sector to the crop and livestock sectors. We then compare the productivity amongst the different countries of the lower Mekong Basin. 3.1 Fish price, production and gross value of production in the Lao PDR Market price of fresh fish, according to the national statistics, is presented in Table 4. Though it looks like the price of fish rose more than tenfold from 1995 to 2000 in local currency, but in dollar terms, the price fell by about 35% between 1995 and 2000 and remained fairly stable since. The change in price in kip reflected inflation of the currency. Table 4: Market price of fresh fish in the Lao PDR, average of eight provinces Year 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Price, kip/kg 707.8 804.7 7887.6 8954.6 10056.3 10569 10585.5 Price, $/kg 2.67 3.24 2.09 1.87 1.78 1.78 2.01 Source: National Statistics Centre, 2003, 2004a, 2005 Phonvisay et al. (2005) aimed at a systematic approach to check fish price by monitoring of fish sales at the three markets in Vientiane and Luang Prabang in 2004. A summary of the data collected during a five-day survey on the sale of fish in main markets in Vientiane from January 12 to 16, 2004 and in Luang Prabang from 2 to 6 March 2004 is given in Table 5. The survey carried out by Phonvisay et al. (2005) also found that fresh fish from aquaculture were considerably more important in the urban markets than wild captured fish from rural areas and the Mekong River. However, wild captured fish are still preferred to cultured fish, as is shown by the higher price of these fish in urban markets (Phonvisay et al. 2005). Table 5: Fish price in the markets of Vientiane and Luang Prabang Province Market Price, $/kg Vientiane Thongkhankham 1.6 Thatluang 1.4 Luang Prabang Luang Prabang 1.4 Source: Phonvisay et al., 2005 Basa fish, Vinh Long market, Viet Nam CPWF R4D 03 11 Source: Wikipedia 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Noting again that the national statistics for production are very doubtful and very likely a gross underestimate, we show in Table 6 the production and GVP per capita for the Lao PDR since 1999 from the FAOSTAT database. The apparent decrease in the gross value of production per capita is mainly because of increase in population while the production remained static and a decrease in fish price in US dollar (Table 6). Table 6: Production and GVP of capture fisheries in Laos according to FAOSTAT (2007) Gross value of Production Production per Year Production production per value capita capita tonne million $ kg/capita $/capita 1999 30041 41.82 5.90 8.22 2000 29250 40.72 5.60 7.80 2001 31000 38.57 5.77 7.17 2002 33440 39.77 6.05 7.20 2003 29800 35.36 5.25 6.23 2004 29800 39.92 5.11 6.84 According to the National Statistics Centre (2004b), the total production value of fisheries for the Lao PDR for 2002-03 was $63 million. The country average per capita production was about $12.0, and ranges from $27.33 per capita in Borikhamxay province to $6.71 per capita in Luang Prabang province (Table 7). Given the uncertainties in estimates, these values broadly agree with those in the FAOSTAT database given above. Baran et al (2007) gave a range of estimates from $48 million to $100 million. Table 7: Production of fisheries by province based on the LECS survey (2002-03) otal Province Value of No of Household T uction production households size value of Prod production value $/household thousands million $ $/capita Phongsaly 52.6 25 6.5 1.32 8.09 Luangnamtha 45.8 23 6.0 1.05 7.64 Oudomaxy 53.1 38 6.5 2.02 8.17 Bokeo 82.4 25 5.4 2.06 15.27 Luang Prabang 42.3 61 6.3 2.58 6.71 Huaphanh 71.1 37 7.3 2.63 9.74 Xayaboury 65.3 58 5.6 3.79 11.67 Vientiane Capital 43.3 111 5.7 4.80 7.59 Xiengkhuang 59.9 30 7.4 1.80 8.09 Vientiane Province 80.6 62 5.9 5.00 13.67 Borikhamxay 153.0 38 5.6 5.82 27.33 Khammuane 124.7 55 5.8 6.86 21.50 Savannakhet 80.2 122 6.3 9.79 12.74 Xaysomboon SR 75.7 6 5.8 0.45 13.05 Saravane 46.6 51 6.0 2.38 7.77 Sekong 46.3 12 6.4 0.56 7.24 Champasack 78.2 97 5.9 7.58 13.25 Attapeu 121.4 17 5.9 2.06 20.58 Lao PDR 72.8 868 6.1 62.54 11.93 12 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Recent consumption-based estimates yield much larger values ranging from 10 to 44 kg/person/year, with a probabl2e 0b4es,t0 e0s0ti mtoatnen oefs a/byoeuat r3.0 H kogr/tpleer s(o2n0/y0e7a)r (aHlsoor tglei,v 2e0s0 7a)n. Theset iumppaetre fi oguf raebs ogiuvet m20u8ch,0 h0ig0h er estimates of total fistho pnrnoedsu/cytieona ro.f Tarhoeu ngdr o1s8s3 ,v00a0lu teo nonfe sp/ryoedaru (cHtioorntl ei manpdl iBeuds hb,y 2 0th03e; hViagnh Zearl iensgtei met aalt.e, 2s0 i0s3 ). Baran et al. (2007) rperhaps about $200 million per year. On the other hand, FAO (2003) ceovnieswu emstpimtiaotnes erasntgime farotmes a buonudt e7r0t,0a0k0e tno f2o0r4 ,h00e0a lttohn naens/dy enaur.t Hritoirotnle (s2u0r0v7e) yalss og giivvees vana leusteims aotfe of about 208,000a tboonunte s1/y0e akrg. Th/pee rgsroosns /vyaleuae ro,f aplrtohdouuctgiohn t ihmisp lmieda byy bthee ahnig huenr desetrimesattiems ias pteer (hDapysg a,b o2u0t0 $62)0 0o mn illion per year. Onw thhiec hot hweer hsahnadl,l F cAoOm (m20e0n3t) fcuorntshuemrp btieonlo ewst i(mSaetcest iuonnd e3r.t5ak)e.n for health and nutrition surveys give values of about 10 kg/person/year, although this may be an underestimate (Dyg, 2006) on which we shall comment further below (FSeigctuioren 31. 5s)h. ows the comparison of gross value of production (GVP) for agriculture and livestock with the GVP from fisheries using both the lowest estimates from Figutrhee 1 nshaotwiosn tahle sctoamtipsatricisso na nofd g trhoses hvaigluhee osft p erosdtiumctaiotne (fGroVmP )t fhoer aligtreicrualttuurree .a nTdh leiv GesVtoPc kf rwoimth the GVP cropping has gradually increased over the last 5 years, while the contribution from fisfhreormies luivsiensgt booctkh trheem loawinesst essttaimticat.e Ts fhreom c othnet rniabtuiotnioanl s tfartoismtic sf iasnhde trhiee sh iigsh, eastc ecsotirmdainteg f rtoom t hthee literature. The GVloPw freosmt, c rnoaptpioinnga hl afsi ggruardeusa,l lya tin lceraeasste da so viemr pthoer ltaasnt t5 ayesa rtsh, awth filreo tmhe lcivoentsrtiobuckti,o na nfrdo m livestock remains static. Thseee cmonintrgiblyu tsiotna tfirco.m T fihseh eurpieps eisr, afcigcourrdeins gp tuot t hthe elo wcoesntt, rnibatuiotnioanl fi fgruormes , faits hleeasrti eas iamsp osertvanetr asl that from livestoctki,m aneds stehemati nogfl yl isvtaetsict.o Thcke aunppde ra fis gmuroesr epu itm thpeo crotantnrtib tuhtaionn mfrooms tfi cshroerpiess oast hseevre rtahl tainm ersi cteha, t of livestock and as mwoitreh imwphoicrtha nitt twhaans mrooustg chrolyp se oqtuhearl tihna n2 0ri0ce0, w(iFtihg wuhreic h2 )it. was roughly equal in 2000 (Figure 2). 800 600 400 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Crop Livestock Fish low estimate FFiigguurer e1 : 1 . CoCnotnritbruibtiuotni oonf d oifff edreifnfte sreecntotr ss etoc toovresra ltlo p roovdeurcatilol np irno tdhuec Ltaioon P DinR t.h The eL laoow PfiDshR . The low fishes teimstaitme aartee d aatrae f rdoamt aF AfrOomST AFATO (2S0T0A7T) ((T2a0b0le7 6)) (aTnad bthlee d6a)r ka nbldu et hpoei ndta isr kfr obmlu Ve an point is fromZa lVinagne eZt al.i n(2g0e0 3e)t al. (2003). Figure 2F igshuorwes 2th seh GowVPs tphere cGapVitPa poef ri nclaanpdit afi sohef riinesl acnodm pfiasrhede rwieitsh croicme, poatrheerd cwroipths, raincde ,l iovetshteocrk . There is a significacnrto ipnsc,r eaasned i nl ipveers ctaopcitka. inTchoemree firso ma soitghneri fcircoapnst w ihnicler ealal sthee i not hpeerr s eccatoprist are imnacionmede s tfartoicm o r declined. The other crops while all the other sectors remained static or declined. The GVP per GVP pecra cpaiptiata f frroomm ccaapptuturer efi sfhiesrhieesr iise asb iosu ta 1b5o%u to f1 t5h%e G oVf Pt hfreo mG VriPce firno rmec ernict ey eianr sr, eanced nist syimeialarrs ,t o that from livestocak.nd is similar to that from livestock. 100 80 60 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Rice Upland crops Livestock Fish low estimate Fish high estimate FigureF 2ig: u re 2C.o mpCaroimsopna orfi sGoVn Po fp GerV cPa ppitear ocfa dpiifftaer oenf td pifrfoedreunctti opnr osdecutcotriso onf stehcet Loarso PofD tRhe. Th e low Lao PDfiRs.h T ehseti mloawte f iis hfr oemst iFmAaOteS TisA fTro (m20 F0A7)O (STTaAbTle (62)0 a0n7d) t h(Te ahbigleh 6fi)s ha ensdti mthaet eh iisg fhro m Van fish estZimalainteg ei se tf raol.m (2 0V0a3n) Zalinge et al. (2003). 15 CPWF R4D 033.2 Fish price, production and GVP in Thailand 13 The official Statistical Yearbook published by the Office of the Agricultural Economics gives the price of fish in Bangkok (Table 8). Table 8 Average price of fish in the Bangkok auction market. Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Price, baht/kg 41.9 41.1 41.5 41.5 40.7 40.7 Noting again that the national statistics for production are very doubtful and very likely a gross underestimate, we show in Table 9 the production and GVP per capita for Thailand since 1999 from the FAOSTAT database. Production and GVP per capita were available only for the whole country. This leads to difficulties in interpreting the production in the Mekong Basin part of Thailand. Table 9 Production of freshwater capture fisheries of Thailand, from FAOSTAT (2007). Year Production Price, Gross value of production, Production, GVP tonne $/kg million $ kg/capita $/capita 1999 206434 1.11 228.5 3.44 3.81 2000 201205 1.03 206.4 3.32 3.41 2001 202200 0.93 188.9 3.30 3.08 2002 198200 0.97 191.5 3.20 3.09 2003 197493 0.98 193.6 3.15 3.09 2004 202600 1.01 204.8 3.20 3.24 Prapertchop (1989) reported a registered production in northeast Thailand of 59,000 tonnes, but gave a consumption-based estimate of 322,000 tonnes, or 5- 6 times the production estimate. As with the Lao PDR, we see a consumption- based estimate that is far higher than the official production figures. Other estimates include: Coates (2002) - annual production of 200,000 to 500,000 16 GVP, million $ GVP, $/capita 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 3.2 Fish price, production and GVP in Thailand The official Statistical Yearbook published by the Office of the Agricultural Economics gives the price of fish in Bangkok (Table 8). Table 8: Average price of fish in the Bangkok auction market Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Price, baht/kg 41.9 41.1 41.5 41.5 40.7 40.7 Noting again that the national statistics for production are very doubtful and very likely a gross underestimate, we show in Table 9 the production and GVP per capita for Thailand since 1999 from the FAOSTAT database. Production and GVP per capita were available only for the whole country. This leads to difficulties in interpreting the production in the Mekong Basin part of Thailand. Table 9: Production of freshwater capture fisheries of Thailand, from FAOSTAT (2007) Gross value of Year Production Price, Production, GVP production, tonne $/kg million $ kg/capita $/capita 1999 206434 1.11 228.5 3.44 3.81 2000 201205 1.03 206.4 3.32 3.41 2001 202200 0.93 188.9 3.30 3.08 2002 198200 0.97 191.5 3.20 3.09 2003 197493 0.98 193.6 3.15 3.09 2004 202600 1.01 204.8 3.20 3.24 Prapertchop (1989) reported a registered production in northeast Thailand of 59,000 tonnes, but gave a consumption-based estimate of 322,000 tonnes, or 5-6 times the production estimate. As with the Lao PDR, we see a consumption-based estimate that is far higher than the official production figures. Other estimates include: Coates (2002) - annual production of 200,000 to 500,000 tonnes based on an average catch of 20 to 50 kg per capita per year by 10 million rural people; Van Zalinge et al. (2003) - 932,300 tonnes, based on per capita consumption of 52.7 kg; Mahasarakarm (2007) - 795,000 tonnes, based on per capita consumption of 30- 35 kg. FAOSTAT (2007) gives the consumption in Thailand of about 30 kg/person/year, showing little change from 1995 to 2005, though the figure is for the whole of Thailand, and includes marine products. At a conservative first sale price, of about $1/kg, the freshwater fisheries (both capture fisheries and aquaculture) of the Mekong in Thailand are worth about $700 million per year (Mahasarakarm, 2007). Not all the fish consumed in the region are from local production, but are also imported from other regions of Thailand and smuggled from Cambodia (Van Zalinge et al., 2001). Figure 3 compares the GVP of freshwater capture fisheries production from 1999 with the GVP of crop and livestock for the Mekong part of Thailand. The GVP of capture fisheries for the whole of Thailand, based on the lower national statistics was less than that of livestock from the Mekong Basin areas alone. However, this estimate is both a gross underestimate and leaves out much of the fishery resource (in particular, rivers and aquaculture). The larger, more recent estimates of production in 2000 (see section 2.1.2) of between about 500,000 and 900,000 tonnes for the Thai Mekong capture fishery, and a first-sale price of about $1/kg, gives a much larger GVP of between about $500 and 14 tonnes based on an average catch of 20 to 50 kg per capita per year by 10 million rural people; Van Zalinge et al. (2003) - 932,300 tonnes, based on per capita consumption of 52.7 kg; Mahasarakarm (2007) - 795,000 tonnes, based on per capita consumption of 30-35 kg. FAOSTAT (2007) gives the consumption in Thailand of about 30 kg/person/year, showing little change from 1995 to 2005, though the figure is for the whole of Thailand, and includes marine products. At a conservative first sale price, of about $1/kg, the freshwater fisheries (both capture fisheries and aquaculture) of the Mekong in Thailand are worth about $700 million per year (Mahasarakarm, 2007). Not all the fish consumed in the region are from local production, but are also imported from other regions of Thailand and smuggled from Cambodia (Van Zalinge et al., 2001). Figure 3 compares the GVP of freshwater capture fisheries production from 1999 with the GVP of crop and livestock for the Mekong part of Thailand. The GVP of capture fisheries for the whole of Thailand, based on the lower national statistics was less than that of livestock from the Mekong Basin areas alone. However, this estimate is both a gross underestimate and leaves out much of the fishery resource (in particular, rivers and aquaculture). The larger, more recent estimates of production in 2000 (see section 2.1.2) of between about 500,000 and 900,000 tonnes for the Thai Mekong capture fishery, and a first-sale price of about $1/kg, gives a much larger GVP of between about $500 and $2901010.0 8m.20il.ClioPWn.F R4D-03.draftv2 With this estimate, the capture fisheries sector in the Mekong Basin in Thailand in terms of GVP is larger than the livestock sector, and perhaps about 20–40 % that $o9f0 0th mei llciorno.p W sitehc tthoisr .e stimate, the capture fisheries sector in the Mekong Basin in Thailand in terms of GVP is larger than the livestock sector, and perhaps about 20–40 % that of the crop sector. 3000 2000 1000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Crop Livestock Fish low estimate Figure 3: GVP from different sectors of Thailand. GVP of crop and livestock in this figure is for Figure 3. GVtPh ef Mroemko ndgi pffaertr eofn Tht saielacntdo wrsh eorefa Ts thhae iGlaVnPd o.f GcaVptPu roe ffi schreoripes aisn fodr tlhive ewshtolec kof in this figure is forTh tahilean Md.e Thkoe nlogw pfisahr ets toimf aTteh ias iflraonmd F AwOhSeTrAeTa s(2 t0h0e7) GanVdP th oe fh icgahp fitsuh reest ifmisathee ries is for the whole( doafr kT bhluaei lpaonindt). iTs fhroem l oVwan fZisalhin gees etti mal.a (2te00 i3s) from FAOSTAT (2007) and the high fish estimate (dark blue point) is from Van Zalinge et al. (2003). FigFuigruer e4 4 ccoommppaarerse tsh et hGeV PG pVePr cpaepirt ac oafp ditiffae roenf td siefcfteorres noft Thseaciltaonrds. Thofe Thhigahielra nredce.n Tt heseti mhaitgehs eofr fishery prreocdeuncttio en sletaimd taot ae Gs VoPf ffoisr hfieshreyr ieps rgoredautecrt tihoann tlehaatd o ft oot hae rG crVoPps ,f oanrd f ais lhitteler ileesss tghraena thteatr otfh raicne. The higher etshtiamta toe ff oor t2h0e0r0 ics rpoloptste,d a onn dF igau rliet 4tl. e less than that of rice. The higher estimate for 2000 is plotted on Figure 4. 80 60 40 20 17 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Rice Other crops Livestock Fish low estimate Fish high estimate Figure 4: Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sectors of Thailand. Shows the Figure 4. Cloowm fipsah reisstiomna toe ff roGmV FPA pOeSrT AcaTp (i2t0a0 7o)f a nddif tfheer heinght fipsrho edstuimctaitoe nfr osme cVtaon rZsa loinfg e et Thailand. Shoawl.s ( 2t0h0e3 )low fish estimate from FAOSTAT (2007) and the high fish estimate from Van Zalinge et al. (2003). Aquaculture has expanded significantly over the past 10 years in northeast Thailand (Phillips, 2002). Fish culture in Aquaculture has expanded significantly over the past 10 years in northeast poTnhdsa, riliacen fide ld(sP, hdiitlclihpess ,a n2d0 c0ag2es) .c oFnitsrihb ucteudl touvrere 3 i8n,0 0p0o tnodnnse,s rinic 1e9 9f8ie (lDdesp,a rdtimtcenhte osf Faisnhder iceas, g20e0s1 a). Phillips (20c0o2n)t arrigbuuest ethda t othveeser s3ta8ti,st0ic0s 0u ntdoenrensteims aitne t1he9 c9o8nt r(iDbuetipoan rmtmadee bnyt tohef lFarigseh neurmiebser,s 2of0 s0m1aall-)s.c aPleh pirlloidpusc ers. (2002) argues that these statistics underestimate the contribution made by the laThrgeree mnauym beb meorrse tohfa ns m20a0,l0l-0s0c haolues ephoroldds uincveolrvse.d Tinh semraell -smcaaley a qbueac umltourree a ntdh aannn u2a0l p0r,o0du0c0ti on from these smhalol uscsaeleh hooludsseh ionldvso ilsv eestdim iante sd mas a3l0l-,0s0c0a tloen naeqs uoar cmuolrteu (rPeh iallinpds, 2a0n0n2)u. aThl ep trootdalu pcrtoidounct iforno mcom tehse tso ea bout 68s,0m00a tlol nsnceas lpee rh yoeaur.seholds is estimated as 30,000 tonnes or more (Phillips, 2002). The total production comes to about 68,000 tonnes per year. CPWF R4D 03 15 3.3 Fish price, production and GVP in Cambodia Several studies surveyed the price of fish in Cambodia (section 2.2.3). Hortle et al., (2004) reported the average price of fish as $0.75/kg. Other studies note that the price in Cambodia varies from season to season, and Figure 5 shows figures from Department of Fisheries (2001a). 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99 Nov-99 Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Figure 5. Monthly average catch fish price for Cambodia. Constructed using the data available in Department of Fisheries (2001a). As with the Lao PDR and Thailand, the official statistics seriously underestimate fish production. Referring to data from 1999 onwards, Coates (2002) reports that the official recorded production was about 230,000 tonnes in 1999 (a large 18 Price, Riel/kg GVP, million $ GVP, $/capita 80 60 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Rice Other crops Livestock Fish low estimate Fish high estimate Figure 4. Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sectors of Thailand. Shows the low fish estimate from FAOSTAT (2007) and the high fish estimate from Van Zalinge et al. (2003). Aquaculture has expanded significantly over the past 10 years in northeast Thailand (Phillips, 2002). Fish culture in ponds, rice fields, ditches and cages contributed over 38,000 tonnes in 1998 (Department of Fisheries, 2001a). Phillips (2002) argues that these statistics underestimate the contribution made by the large numbers of small-scale producers. There may be more than 200,000 households involved in small-scale aquaculture and annual production from these small scale households is estimated as 30,000 tonnes or more (Phillips, 2002). 2011.0T8.h04e.C PtoWtFa Rl 4pDr-0o3d.duracftvt2ion comes to about 68,000 tonnes per year. 33.33 F ish prFicei,s phro dpucrtiocne an,d pGVroP idn uCacmtbiodnia and GVP in Cambodia Several studies surveyed the price of fish in Cambodia (section 2.2.3). Hortle et aSle.v,e r(a2l s0tu0d4ie)s surervpeyoedr ttehed p rtihcee o fa fivshe irna Cgaem bpordiica e(s eoctfi ofni s2h.2 .3a)s. H $o0rt.le7 e5t a/lk., g(2.0 0O4t) hreeporr tsetdu thdei eavse rnagoe tperi cte hat tohfe fi sph rasic $e0. 7i5n/ kCg.a Omthbero sdtuidai evs naortiee tsh aft rtohem pr iscee ians Coanm btood isa evaariseso fnro,m a sneadso nF itgo useraeso n5, asndh oFiwgusre f5i gshuorwes s ffirogumres Dfroemp Daerptamrtmenentt ooff F Fishiserhiees r(2ie00s1 a()2. 001a). 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99 Nov-99 Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Figure 5. Monthly average catch fish price for Cambodia. Constructed using the data aFivguariel a5:b le Mino nDthelyp aavrertamgee cantcth o fifs hF pirsiche eforri eCsam (b2o0di0a. 1Cao)n.st ructed using the data available in Department of Fisheries (2001a) As with the Lao PDR and Thailand, the official statistics seriously underestimate fishA sp wriothd tuhec Ltiaoo nPD. RR aenfde Thrrainilagn dt, oth ed oaffitcaia lf srtoatmisti c1s s9er9io9u solyn uwndaerredstsim, aCteo fiasht perso d(u2ct0io0n2. R)e freerrpinog rtot sd attah at tfrom 1999 onwards, Coates (2002) reports that the official recorded production was about 230,000 tonnes in 1999 (ha ela rogef finiccrieaals er oenc toher dmeeadn inpgrleossd fiugcurteiso onf ewarlaiesr yaeabrso, burot u2gh3t 0ab,o0u0t 0by timopnrnoveeds siunrv e1ys9),9 b9ut (thae dlaatrag avea ilable from the official websites show this jump to the higher figure only in 2002. Other estimates of fishery production range from simila1r 8to higher than the official statistics in recent years. These include: Van Zalinge and Touch (1996) and Diep et al. (1998) - 255,000 to 380,000 tonnes; Van Zalinge (2002) - 400,000 tonnes in 2000, which was still believed to be an under-estimate, and of which the Tonle Sap annual catch was about 235,000 tonnes; Ahmed et al. (1998) - between 290,000 tonnes to 430,000 tonnes; Van Zalinge et al. (2003) - about 680,000 tonnes for 2000; Hortle (2007) – 590,000 tonnes. This estimate of Van Zalinge et al. (2003) assumes consumption (all fish products) at about 65 kg/person/year, which is within the range given by Hortle and Bush (2003). A lower estimate of consumption, of about 10 kg/person/year was given by Petracchi (1999a), based on health and nutrition surveys, but this figure is now superseded by FAOSTAT (2007) which gives consumption that varies from 17 to 29 kg/person/year for 1990-1998 and from 49 to 80 kg/person/year for 1999-2005. Although this includes all fish over all of Cambodia, it is reasonable to suppose the figure is dominated by the Mekong region and so may be taken as a broad indication of consumption of Mekong fish. Thus, the FAO figures, like other figures, have been revised upwards in recent years, by a factor of between 2 and 3 in the late 1990s. The recent figures broadly agree with those given by Van Zalinge et al. (2003). Estimates of GVP show a similar range, with upward revisions in recent years, and include: Van Zalinge et al. (1998) - between $130 to 200 million at the landing sites; Jensen (2000a, 2000b) - $150-200 million, increasing in the market chain to $250-500 million; Van Zalinge (2002) - $300 million; Hortle et al. (2004) - $300 million, probably all under-estimates. The official statistics give the monetary value of the total fish catch as between $250-300 million in recent years, and the contribution of the fishery sector as 8% to 10% of the total national GDP of $2,800 million. According to Nam (2000), the contribution of inland fisheries ranges from 5-7% to 9-18% of the total national GDP 16 Price, Riel/kg GVP, $/capita 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 of $2,800 million. Van Zalinge et al. (2003) did not give a figure for the value of fisheries, but implied the total value to be about $500 m. Figure 6 shows the comparison of GVP for agriculture and livestock and the GVP from fisheries using both the lowest estimates from the national statistics and the highest estimate of Van Zalinge et al. (2003). The GVP from crop cultivation shows an increasing trend, while the contribution from livestock has decreased up to 2001 and increased to the level of 1999 in 2003. The contribution from fisheries is, according to the lowest, national figures, more important in recent years than that from livestock. The upper figures put the contribution from fisheries as several times that of livestock and as more important than most crops other than rice, with which it was roughly equal in 2000 (Figure 7). 1000 1000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1999 2000 Crop L2iv0e0st1ock Fisherie2s002 2003 Crop Livestock Fisheries FigureFi g6u.re 6: CoCnotnrtirbibutiionn o fo dfiff deriefnfte sreectnorts tsoe tchte ovresr atllo a gtrhicuel tuorvale prraodllu catigonri ocfu Cltaumrbaodl iap. roduction Figouf rCea 6m. bodCiao.n TThthrieb b ulbutleiu opeoni n pot oifs i tndhtief fhiesig rhte hensetti m hsaietgec hotfo Verasnt iZtmoal iatnhtge e to afvl . Ve(2ra0a0nl3 l) Zaaglrinicguelt eutr aall .p (ro2d0u0c3t)i o n of Cambodia. The blue point is the high estimate of Van Zalinge et al. (2003) 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1999 2000 200Y1ear 2002 2003 Rice UYpelaanrd crops Livestock RicCeapture fishereis UplAaqnuda ccruolptusre LiveFsistohc -k high estimate Capture fishereis Aquaculture Fish - high estimate Figure 7: Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sectors of Cambodia Figure 7. Comparison of GVP per capita of different production sectors of FigCuarme b7o.d ia.C omparison of GVP per capita of different production sectors of CambThoed oiffiac.i al statistics show the GVP of aquaculture production of Cambodia has increased from $9 million in 1993 Ttoh aeb oouftf $ic25ia ml isllitoant iins t2i0c0s4 . sPhhiollwip (t2h00e2 )G esVtiPm aotefd athqeu vaaluceu oltf uinrlaen dp arqoudacuuclttuiroe npr oodfu cCtiaonm fobr oCdamiab ohdaias a t Thi$ne1 c7or.2ef fmaicsilileaiodln s fftrroaomtmi s1 4t$i,1c90s0 mstohnilonliweo on ft phirneo d 1Guc9Vti9oPn3 ofotfor 1a a9q9bu8o.a Thuctui s$l gt2iuve5rse tm hpei ralolvieodranug cei tnpiro i2cne0 ao0s f$4 1C..2 aP2/mhkiglb.l iSopvde r(ida2r u0hp0a-J2esn) s en ince(r2se0t0aim2s)e acodtne sfdird oetrmhede t$ hve9 aa vlmuereailg leio opfnr iic nein loa f n1aqd9u 9aac3uq ltutuoare c ausb l$ot1u.0rt5e /$ kpg2.r 5Wo dme uuiscleltdiio othne pifnroi cr2e r0Ce0pao4mrt.e bdPo bhdyi liPlaihp ila li(tp2 ($0210072.))2 f o r all esmthimiel lpiarootnvei ndfcr etosh amned v1foa4r l,au1lle 0ye 0aor fst tion nelsantinem daot efa tqhpeur goardocsus vcltatuliuoree no f pfaoqruroa dc1u9ltcu9tr8ieo .pn rTo dfhuoicsrt ioCgnia.vmesb othdeia a avte $ra1g7e.2 p rice as m$ill1io.2n2 f/rkogm. S1v4e,1rd0r0u pto-nJennes eonf p(r2o0d0u2c)t icoonn fsoidr e1r9e9d8 t.h Teh aisv egrivaegse tphreic aev oefr agqeu apcruiclteu ares $1a.s2 2$/1k.g0.5 S/kvge.r dWruep u-sJend stehne (p2r0ic0e2 )re cpoonrstiedde rbeyd P thiell ipav (e2r0a0g2e) p froicr ea lol ft haeq uparcouvlitnucres asa C$nP1Wd. F0f oR54r/D ka 0gl3l .y Weaer su steod e tshtiem partiec et hre pgorrotsesd vbaylu Peh oillfi pa q(2u0ac0u2l)t uforer palrlo tdhuec tpioronv. in ces 17 and for all years to estimate the gross value of aquaculture production. 3.4 Fish price, production and GVP in Vietnam 3.F4is h prFodisuhct iponr iicne t,h ep Mroedkouncgt iaorena sa onfd V iGetVnaPm i nis mViaeintlny ainm th e Mekong Delta, Fiswhh peroed buoctthio cna ipnt uthre fMisehkeorinegs arneda sa qouf aVciuetltnuarme aisre m imaipnolyr tiann th. e Mekong Delta, where both capture fisheries and aquaculture are important. The price of caught and farmed aquatic products in Vietnam is not given in official Thset aptrisictiec so,f bcuatu gmhaty a bned efasrtmi eadt eadq ubayt itch ep rtodtaulc tosu tinp uVti evtanlaume bisy nthoet gtoivtaeln p irno odfufcictiiaoln . staTthiset iacvse, rbaugte m pariyc eb eso e estsitmimaatetedd b iys tghiev etno tianl Toaubtpleu t1 0v.a l ue by the total production. The average price so estimated is given in Table 10. 20 20 GVP, $/capita GVP, million $ GVP, $/capita GVP, million $ 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 3.4 Fish price, production and GVP in Viet Nam Fish production in the Mekong areas of Viet Nam is mainly in the Mekong Delta, where both capture fisheries and aquaculture are important. Table 10 Average fish prices in Vietnam. The price of caught and farmed aquatic products in Viet Nam is not given in official statistics, but may be estimated by tYheea rt otal output value by the total prPordiucec toiof nca. uThghet aavqeuraatgice pprroidcue csto estimated is giPvreinc ei no fT faabrmlee 1d0 a.q uatic product million dong/tonne million dong/tonne Table 10: Average fish prices in Viet Nam 1999 8.29 11.66 2000 Year Price of caught aquatic Price of farmed aquatic produ8ct.37 product 13.36 2001 8.22 15.75 million dong/tonne million dong/tonne 2002 8.04 15.51 1999 8.29 11.66 2003 7.95 15.79 2004 2000 8.377.93 13.36 15.84 2005 2001 8.227.96 15.75 15.80 2002 8.04 15.51 As with the othe2r0 0c3ountries, the7 .o95fficial statistics under1e5.s7t9imate production and are biased towa2r0d0s4 aquaculture7 .(9C3 oates, 2002). Figure1 58.8 4shows the officially- recorded overall production in Vietnam. Being located along the coastline, the Mekong Delta of2 0V0i5etnam also h7a.9s6 marine fisheries, ca1l5le.8d0 “people’s fisheries”, which develop spontaneously (Research Institute for Marine Fisheries, 2006). Its annual contribution to the total GDP has been increasing from 1.7% in 1985 to 4%As wiinth 2th0e 0ot4he r( Rcoeunsteriaesr, cthhe oIffincsiatli sttuattiseti cfso urn dMeraesrtiimnaete Fpirsodhuectriioens a,n d2 a0re0 b6ia)se.d Ttohwear dMs aeqkuaocnulgtu rDe (eClotaat eiss, on20e0 2o).f F tighuere m8 sahojowrs tshoe uoffircciealsly -orefc omrdeadr oinveera lfl ipsrhoedurciteiosn iinn VVieiet tNnaamm. B e(inFgi gloucarteed 8al)o.n gI nth e1 c9oa9st9lin iet, twhea s thMee kmonog sDte litma opf Voirett aNnamt palsaor hta so mf atrihnee fi fsihsehriees,r cyal,l ebd u“pte obpyle ’s2 fi0sh0er5ie sm”, wahriicnh ede vperloopd spuocnttiaoneno uhslay d(R,e search acIncsotitrudtei nfogr Mtoar ionef fFiicshiaerli ess,t 2a0t0i6s)t. iIctss a,n nbueael cnon struibputeiorns etod tehed t obtayl GtDhPa th aos bf etehn ein crraeapsinidg lfyro mg r1o.7w% iinn g19 85 to 4% in 2004 (Research Institute for Marine Fisheries, 2006). The Mekong Delta is one of the major sources of marine aqfisuhearcieus ilnt uVrieet Nsaemc t(Foirgu. rFe 8A)O. In ( 1299090 it8 w)a sg tihvee mso sat imtoptoartla n(ts pharrti omf tphe pfilsuhesry ,f rbeuts bhy w20a0t5e mra rcinaet pfirsodhu)c tion prhoadd, aucccotridoinng otof o affibcioalu stta t6ist0ic0s, ,b0ee0n0 su ptoernsendeeds b yi nth atth oef t hde eralptaid lyin gr o2w0in0g4 aq.u aculture sector. FAO (2008) gives a total (shrimp plus freshwater catfish) production of about 600,000 tonnes in the delta in 2004. 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Capture Inland fisheries Marine fisheries FYaremaerd fish Farmed shrimp Other farmed product Figure 8: Production from the different fisheries sectors in Viet Nam. The lower dark blue point is Figure 8. Protdheu tcotailo pnro dfruoctmion tehsteim datief, fexcrleudnitn gf misahrienre ifiesshe rsiesc, otfo Vrasn iZna liVngie t(2n0a0m3), .w Thihlee lower dark blue point tihse utphpeer tdoartka bl luper poodinut cist tihoen es teimstatime ofa Vtean, Zeaxlincglue edt ianl. g(2 0m03a) raidnded ftios the orffiiecsia,l of Van Zalinge (2003),m warhiniel epr otdhuect iuonp vpaelure dark blue point is the estimate of Van Zalinge et al. (2003) added to the official marine production value. 18 Other estimates of fishery productivity show a similar divergence with official statistics to that shown in the other countries, and include: Van Zalinge et al. (2000) - 190,000 tonnes from capture fisheries; Van Zalinge et al. (2003) - 845,000 tonnes in 2000 from capture fisheries with aquaculture production of 171,600 tonnes, and the total fish production of just over a million tonnes being equivalent to consumption of 60 kg/capita/year; Hortle (2007) – 850,000 tonnes. Lam et al. (2002), based on a household survey, estimated consumption in Tra Vinh province at 51 kg/capita/year (fresh fish equivalent of 58 kg/capita/year), of which fresh fish (and other aquatic animals) was 42 kg/capita/year (inland fresh 21 Production, 000 ton 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Other estimates of fishery productivity show a similar divergence with official statistics to that shown in the other countries, and include: Van Zalinge et al. (2000) - 190,000 tonnes from capture fisheries; Van Zalinge et al. (2003) - 845,000 tonnes in 2000 from capture fisheries with aquaculture production of 171,600 tonnes, and the total fish fisphr ocdoucntisoun mof ejuds t wovaers a3 m1il lkiogn/ tcoannpeist abe/inyge eaqru)iv.a lTenhte t oF cAonOsu hmeptaioltnh o fa 6n0d k gn/cuaptritiat/iyoenar ; sHuorrvtle y(2 007) – (Pe85t0r,a0c00c htoin,n 1es9. 99b) reported fish consumption at about 13 kg/person/year: as in Cambodia, this estimate has been superseded by more recent figures in FAOSTAT (200L7a)m, ewt hal.i c(2h0 0r2e),p boasretds o hn iag hoeusre hcoldn suurvmey,p etsitoimna teds ctoimnsuamteptsio nri sini nTgra sVtineha pdriolyvi nfcreo amt 5 1a kbgo/cuapti t3a/0 kgy/epare (rfsreoshn fi/syhe eaquri vianle ntht oef 5e8a krgl/yc a1pi9ta9/y0esar )t, of 5w5hi ckhg fr/epshe firsho (nan/dy eotahrer ianq u2at0ic0 a3ni-m2a0ls)0 w5a.s H42o kwg/ecavpeitra,/ theyesaer (ifniglaundr efrses ha rfiesh fconrs utmhed wahs o3l1e k go/fc aVpiitea/tynearm). Th aen FdA Oin hcelaultdhe a nad lnl uftirsithio n( Vsuirevteny a(Pmetr ahccahsi, 1a9 99b) surbespotratendt ifiashl cmonasurminpeti ofnis aht aebroyu)t ,1 3a kngd/p esroso ns/hyeoaur: lads ibn eC armebgoadirad, tehdis eastsim ianted hicasa bteievne s uopnerlsyed. eTd hbye m ore figruecreen tf fiogru r2es0 in0 F0A oOfS T4A5T k (g20/0p7e),r wshoicnh/ ryeepoarrts ihsig hseor mcoenswumhpattio nle esstsim tahteas nri sitnhge st eVadainly fZroaml ianbgouet 3e0t kag/l. (20pe0rs3on)/ fyiegaru inr eth eo efa r6ly0 1 9k9g0s/ tpoe 5r5s kog/np/eyrseona/ry,e abr iunt 2 0n0e3v-2e00r5th. eless substantially above some other estimates. However, these figures are for the whole of Viet Nam and include all fish (Viet Nam has a substantial marine Thfies haerqy)u, aancdu slot suhroeul dp breo rdeguarcdteido ans irnedipcaotirvtee odnl yb. Thy eV fiagnur eZ foarl i2n0g00e o fe 4t5 akgl./ p(e2rs0on0/3ye)a r oisf s o1m7e1w,h6at0 le0ss than tonthne eVsan i sZ alleinsges ett hala. (n20 t0h3)e fi g2u4re2 o,f 0600 k0g /tpoernsonne/yse aor,f b fuat nrmeveertdh efleisssh su,b astnandti a3lly7 a2b,o0ve0 s0om teo ottahel r feastrimmaeteds. aquaThtice apqruoacduultucree ,p rroedpucotirotne rde pionrt etdh bey oVfafni cZiaaliln sget aett iasl.t (i2c0s0.3 )T ohfi s17 p1,r6e00s utomnnaesb ilsy l eass rtihsaens t hbe e2c42a,u00s0e mutocnhn eas oqfu faarmcuedlt fiusrhe, a npdr 3o7d2u,0c00e toista lr faarismeedd afqouart iec xprpoodurcte,, raepnodrt etdh iun sth de ooffiecsi anl sotatt issthicso. wTh iisn p rVesaumna bly Zaalriinsegs ebe ceatu sae lm.’usc h( a2q0ua0c3ul)tu creo pnrosduumce pis triaoisned sfourr evxpeoyrts, .a n d thus does not show in Van Zalinge et al.’s (2003) consumption surveys. Figure 9 compares the GVP of fisheries production from 1999 with the GVP of crop Faignudre 9li cvoemsptaorecs kth ef oGrV tPh oef fi Msheerikeso pnrogd upcatiortn forofm V 1i9e9t9n waimth t hues GinVgP obf cortohp atnhd eliv leostwocek sfotr the Mekong estpiamrt oaft Veiset fNroam u stinhge b ontha tthioe nloawle sst teasttimisattiecs sfr oamn tdh et nhaetio hnailg shtaetissttic se asntdi mthea htiegh besat sesetidm aoten b aVseadn o n Van ZaZlianligngee et ta l.a (l2.0 0(32).0 C0r3op) .a nCd rliovepst oacnk dpr oldivuectsiotno schkow ps rno dtruencdt,i wohne rseahs othwerse ins aon itnrcerenasde ,i nw the ecornetarisbu tion theofr teh ei sfis haenri eisn seccrtoeras fsreom i n19 t9h9-e20 c0o4.n tribution of the fisheries sectors from 1999-2004. This growth in the fisheries sector is predominantly due to the production in the MekoThnigs gDroewltha i n( ftihgeu firsehe r1ie0s )se,c tworh ies rpereadsom tihnaen tclyo dnuter itbo uthtei opnro doufc ttiohne i nc ethne tMraelk ohnig Dhelaltan (dfisgu irse 10), newghliegreiabs lteh ea cto nlterisbsut itohna onf t h1e% cen otrfa l thhigeh latnodtsa isl n(efgilgiguibrle a t1 le1s)s .th Sani n1%ce o f2 th0e0 to1t,a l i(nfi gtuhree 1 1c)e. Snintcrea 2l 001, in higthel acentdrasl, h itghelarneds ,i tsh earen i si annc irnecraeasse inin th teh cero pc sreoctpo r sdeuec tto trh ed ruapei dt ion ctrehaese orfa ipnciodm ien fcrorme ansone- roicfe crops inc(oMmaineu dfdrionm et anl.,o 2n00-8r)i.ce crops (Mainuddin et al., 2008). 3000 2000 1000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Crop Livestock Inland fisheries Figure 9: Contribution of the different sectors to the overall agricultural production of Viet Nam. Figure 9. ConThtrieb bulutei oponin ot sfh othwse t hde ihffigehr eestnimt astee ocft Voarns Z taolin tghe eet aol. v(2e0r0a3)ll agricultural production of Vietnam. The blue point shows the high estimate of Van Zalinge et al. (2003). CPWF R4D 03 19 22 GVP, million $ 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 1999 2000 2001 Year 2002 2003 2004 0 Crop Livestock Inland fisheries 1999 2000 2001 Year 2002 2003 2004 Crop Livestock Inland fisheries Figure 10. Contribution of the different sectors to the overall agricultural production of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam. Figure 10: Contribution of the different sectors to the overall agricultural production of the Figure 10. MCekoonntgr iDbuelttiao inn Vofie tth Nea mdifferent sectors to the overall agricultural p roduction of the Mekong Delta in Vietnam. 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 0 Crop Livestock Inland fisheries 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Figure 11: Contribution of the differenCtr ospectoLrivse sttoo ctkhe oInvlaenrda lfils ahegrrieicsultural production of the central Figure 11. higCholanntdrisb ouf tVioient Nofa mthe different sectors to the overall agricultural production of the central highlands of Vietnam. Figure 11. Contribution of the different sectors to the overall agricultural Figuprerso 1d2u tcot i1o4n s hoof wth thee cceonmtpraarli shoing ohfl apnerd csa poift aV GieVtPn aomf d.i ff Figures 12 to 14 show the comparison of per capeirtean tG sVecPto orsf fdoirf Vfeireet nNta mse tcottoalr s(d feoltra plus central highlan Vdsie),t annadm th et odtealtla ( adnedl tthae p cleunstr acle hnigtrhalal nhdisg, hrelsapnedctsiv)e, lya.n Thd et htreen dde islt saim ainladr ttoh teh acte onf ttrhae lfi gures showing the contribFhutiiggiouhnrl aoenfs t dh1se2, d rtieffose 1rpe4en cts tshievcoetwolyr st.. h ATehs ecwo itmrhe ptnhader Liissao osn Pi moDfiR lap aren rtd oc C atahpmiatbta o odGfi Vat,hP th eoe ff li ogdwuif rfeeestsriem snahtto es woefic ntthgoe r toshffi feoc ira l figures still places fiVcsohienetrtnireaisb,m uest pitooecnti aolll fy( dtaheqeulta dc uipflftleurse ,cn aetsn smterocartle o hirmisg.ph oAlrastna wndtsi tt)h, atanhn med a Ltnahyoe c rPdoDeplRst a an andn dmd Co trahem eim bcpoeodnrittaar,na tl hthea nlo twh e livestock sector. Thhesiget ihfimlsahanetrdeys fio, gfru etrhsesep a eorceft fdiivcoeimalyiln .fa igtTeuhdre be yts rt ehsntei dpllr piosdl ausccimetisoi lnaf iirsn ht toeh reti ehdseal,t aeo.sf ptehcei aflilgyu areqsu aschuolwtuinreg, tahse cmoonrteri bimutpioonrt aonf tt hthea dni fmfearennyt csreocptso rasn. dA sm woriteh imthpeo Lrataon Pt DthRa ann tdh eC alimvebsotodciak, stehcet olorw. eTshtei1m f0ia0shtee royf ftihgeu roefsfi cairael fdigoumriensa stetidll bpyla tchees pfirsohdeuricetsio, ne sinp etchiea ldlye latqa.u aculture, as more important than many crops and more important than the livestock sector. The f8i0shery figures are dominated by the production in the delta. 60 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Rice Upland crops Livestock Capture inland fisheries Aquaculture Fish high estimate 23 Figure 12: Comparison of GVP per capita of the different production sectors of Viet Nam Figure 12. Comparison of GVP per capita of the different production sectors of V ietnam. 23 20 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Rice Upland crops Livestock Capture inland fisheries Aquaculture Figure 13. Comparison of GVP per capita of the different production sectors of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. 100 80 60 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Rice Upland crops Livestock Capture inland fisheries Aquaculture Figure 14. Comparison of GVP per capita of the different production sectors of the central highlands of Vietnam. 24 GVP, $/capita GVP, $/capita GVP, $/capita GVP, mGillVioPn, $million $ GVP, mGillVioPn, $million $ 100 1080 860 6400 420 20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 Year 1999 Ric2e000 2001Upland crops 2002 Livesto2c0k03 2004 Capture inland fisheries AquaYcuelaturre Fish high estimate Rice Upland crops Livestock Capture inland fisheries Aquaculture Fish high estimate Figure 12. Comparison of GVP per capita of the different production sectors of Vietnam. Figure 12. Comparison of GVP per capita of the different production sectors of V ietnam. 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 120 112000 10800 8600 6400 4200 200 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 Year 1999 Rice 2000Upland crops 200L1ivestock C2a0p0tu2re inland fisheries2003 Aquaculture 2004 Year Rice Upland crops Livestock Capture inland fisheries Aquaculture Figure 13. Comparison of GVP per capita of the different production sectors of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. FFiigguurer e1 31: 3 . CComompapriasornis oofn G oVfP G pVerP c papeirt ac oafp tihtea d oifff etrhenet dpirfofdeurectniot np sreocdtourcs toifo tnh es Mecetkoornsg o Df elta t he Mekongo fD Veiletta N oafm Vietnam. 100 1080 860 640 420 20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0 Year 1999 Rice 2000Upland crops 200L1ivestock C2a0p0tu2re inland fisherie2s 003 Aquaculture 2004 Year Figure 14: CompRaircieson of UGpVlanPd pcreorp csapita oLifv etshteoc dkifferenCta pptruored iunclatnido nfis hseecrietos rs of tAhqeu caecunltturrael Figure 14. higCholamnpdsa orifs Voinet oNf aGmVP per capita of the different production sectors of the central highlands of Vietnam. Figure 14. Comparison of GVP per capita of the different production sectors of the central highlands of Vietnam. 3.5 Va rying estimates of overall production 24 The est imates of the production and value of fisheries 2v4ary considerably. Production estimates based on national statistics are known to miss much of the catch, and provide unreasonably low estimates. We believe that consumption-based figures provide much better indications of the overall production, but estimates nevertheless vary as much as fivefold from the FAO health and nutrition surveys (Petracchi, 1999a and 1999b) to the figures reported by Van Zalinge et al. (2003). The consumption-based figures have been revised upwards, with the earlier figures reported by Petracchi (1999a, 1999b) superseded by FAO (2007). The van Zalinge estimates are the highest estimates reported for the countries of the lower Mekong Basin, but are generally regarded as the best available (e.g. Baran et al., 2007). The more recent report by Hortle (2007) gives figures similar to, but a little lower than, those of Van Zalinge et al. (2003), but still higher than most other estimates. The Hortle figures may now be the best available estimates. The per capita consumption figures in Hortle (2007) are, however, somewhat lower than those given by Van Zalinge et al. (2003), at 37 (Cambodia), 29 (Lao PDR), 29 (Thailand) and 39 (Viet Nam) kg/capita/ year (Hortle, 2007), compared to 65, 42, 53 and 60 respectively by Van Zalinge et al. (2003). Table 11 shows that the difference between the official production estimates and the consumption estimates is greatest in northeast Thailand in absolute terms (about 200,000 compared to 1.2 million tonnes in 2000, a factor of six), but proportionally greatest in Cambodia (about 99,000 compared to 719,000 tonnes in 2000, a factor of about seven). The difference is proportionally less in Viet Nam (factor of about two in 2000), but the production estimate also includes exported aquaculture fish. The table also includes the production estimates for 2005 (Viet Nam) or 2002-4 (average, CPWF R4D 03 21 GVP,G $V/cPa,p $it/acapita GVP,G $V/cPa,p $it/acapita GVP, G$/VcPap, i$ta/capita 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Thailand), to show that in Cambodia and Viet Nam these estimates increased greatly over those years, and approach the consumption-based estimates. The increase in the reported production in Cambodia after 1998 results from the better surveys and the inclusion of smaller-scale fishing, although the increased estimates appear not to have flowed through for a few years. In Viet Nam, most of the increase is due to aquaculture much of which is exported and, again, this does not figure in the consumption-based estimate. Other factors may confound these comparisons, including: • the export and import of fish (especially from Cambodia to northeast Thailand); • the consumption of marine fish especially in the Mekong Delta region of Viet Nam; and • the differences between the central highlands and Mekong Delta regions of Viet Nam, with the Van Zalinge et al. (2003) high estimates appearing to be for the Mekong Delta region only. The production in the central highlands, while it may be seriously underestimated by official figures, is nevertheless likely to be small. Table 11: Production and per capita consumption, lowest and highest estimates Total Year Capture Aquaculture Consumption Population production Country 000 tonnes 000 tonnes 000 tonnes kg/person/yr million Low High Low High Low High Low High 2000 99 719 86 682 14 14 9 65 11 Cambodia 2002-4 304 283 21 23 13 2000 29 205 na 183 na 5 6 42 4.9 Laos 2002-4 31 na na 5 5.8 2000 201 1188 na 932 na 68 9 53 22.5 Thailand 2002-4 199 na na 8 23.5 2000 598 1022 225 845 242 172 35 60 17 Viet Nama 2005 1170 176 638 69 17 total / 2000 928 3133 15 55 55.4 average 2005 1704 27 59.3 a The high estimate for Viet Nam appears to be for the Mekong Delta alone. The low estimates are from official production statistics, and the high estimate is taken from Van Zalinge et al. (2003). Table 11 also shows the per capita consumption. Most of the estimates based on reported production give values of around 5-10 kg/capita/year. The Cambodian consumption rises in the 2002-4 average to around 23 kg/ capita/year. The Viet Nam consumption figure based on the reported production is much higher, but is biased by the exported aquaculture produce. In contrast to the production estimates, the high estimate from consumption data is 42-65 kg/capita/year. The upper figure for Cambodian consumption at 65 kg/capita/year is comparable to that of Japan. FAO nutrition and health surveys (Petracchi 1999a, 1999b; Kaufmann, 2003) for Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam reported consumption generally around 12 kg/person/year, whereas FAOSTAT (2007) revises these earlier estimates and gives the higher consumption figures shown in Figure 15 for Cambodia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. These figures are for the whole country and also include marine fish, but they show that the FAO estimates, like other estimates in the Mekong, have risen recently. They also give consumption figures approaching those of the Van Zalinge et al. (2003) estimate for Cambodia, and between that implied by the reported production and the consumption survey figures reported by Van Zalinge et al. (2003) for Thailand and Viet Nam. 22 Table 11. Production and per capita consumption, lowest and highest estimates. The low estimates are from official production statistics, and the high estimate is taken from Van Zalinge et al. (2003). Year Total production Capture Aquaculture Consumption Population Country 000 tonnes 000 tonnes 000 tonnes kg/person/yr million Low High Low High Low High Low High 2000 99 719 86 682 14 14 9 65 11 Cambodia 2002-4 304 283 21 23 13 2000 29 205 na 183 na 5 6 42 4.9 Laos 2002-4 31 na na 5 5.8 2000 201 1188 na 932 na 68 9 53 22.5 Thailand 2002-4 199 na na 8 23.5 2000 598 1022 225 845 242 172 35 60 17 Vietnama 2005 1170 176 638 69 17 total / 2000 928 3133 15 55 55.4 average 2005 1704 27 59.3 a The high estimate for Vietnam appears to be for the Mekong Delta alone. Table 11 also shows the per capita consumption. Most of the estimates based on reported production give values of around 5-10 kg/capita/year. The Cambodian consumption rises in the 2002-4 average to around 23 kg/capita/year. The Vietnam consumption figure based on the reported production is much higher, but is biased by the exported aquaculture produce. In contrast to the production estimates, the high estimate from consumption data is 42-65 kg/capita/year. The upper figure for Cambodian consumption at 65 kg/capita/year is comparable to that of Japan. FAO nutrition and health surveys (Petracchi 1999a, 1999b; Kaufmann, 2003) for Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Vietnam reported consumption generally around 12 kg/person/year, whereas FAOSTAT (2007) revises these earlier estimates and gives the higher consumption figures shown in Figure 15 for Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam. These figures are for the whole country and also include marine fish, but they show that the FAO estimates, like other estimates in the Mekong, have risen recently. They also give consumption figures approaching those of the Van Zalinge et al. (2003) estimate for Cambodia, and between that implied by the reported production and the consumption survey figures reported by Van Zalinge et al. (2003) for Thailand and Vietnam. 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year Cambodia Thailand Vietnam FigureF i1gu5r.e 15C: onCsounmsupmtpiotinon f fiigguurrees sfr ofmro FmA OFSATOASTT (2A0T0 7()2007). The values reported in the high estimate of Van Zalinge et al. (2003) were supported by Hortle and Bush (2003) with the following arguments: 26 - Small scale production and consumption surveys show reasonable agreement (no reference or data are given). - Yield estimates derived from the area of floodplain, while viewed as generally unreliable (Hortle and Bush, 2003), do lead to production estimates similar to the consumption estimates. Hortle and Bush quote a yield of 230 kg/ha/year and a floodplain area of 9.69 million ha, giving a yield of 2.23 million tonnes, which is similar to the total production estimate of 3.1 million tonnes. We admit that we do not fully understand this argument, since the bulk of the lower Mekong floodplain is in Cambodia and Viet Nam (the Tonle Sap alone expands by approximately six times during the seasonal flood), so this would imply that the production is mainly in Cambodia and Viet Nam only, whereas the argument is used to support large estimated production in all parts, and particularly in northeast Thailand. So, while not questioning the estimated consumption values, we find this a weak argument. - Consumption in the four lower Mekong countries is similar to that in some developed countries where fish is a small part of the animal protein intake, and less than that in developed countries where fish are an important part of the diet (such as Japan). Again, we do not fully understand this argument, since: 1. There is a general correlation between all animal protein intake, including fish, and income and other development factors such as urbanization (e.g. Huang and Bouis, 1996; York and Gossard, 20041), which suggests that lower consumption of the Mekong countries is a reasonable expectation; 2. The suggestion that consumption is therefore comparable to Japan, which has a similar proportion of fish in the animal protein intake, is with a country that is free of many of the nutrition problems of the lower Mekong countries, again suggesting that a lower consumption is a reasonable expectation. This does not mean the estimates are wrong, but these comparisons require much care so that the conclusions might be different from those claimed. - Expatriate nationals from the lower Mekong Basin living in Washington, USA, consumed quantities similar to those found in the consumption surveys in the Mekong. However, this does not take account of the correlation between animal protein consumption and income and other factors such as urban living. Again, while not questioning the estimated consumption values, we find this a weak argument. Thus, we do not question the estimates of Van Zalinge et al. (2003), but we think the better arguments are in the survey work itself and in the more recent FAOSTAT estimates, not in the other evidence offered by Hortle and Bush (2003). 1 Hortle (personal communication) disputes the correlations described by York and Gossard as being based on flawed surveys of fish consumption, and suggests that the correlations are an artifact of the surveys. CPWF R4D 03 23 Consumption, kg/person/year 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 amounts are somewhat lower and more static with time, perhaps around 30 kg if again we take the FAOSTAT (2007) estimates as compromise figures, bearing in 3m.6a im nRdoeg uaiongntaasil n aa nrtedh tese ompmpooserswailb htlraeet nw dlosh wionle eprr- ocadonuudcn timtornyo aranend s dvta amlutieac rwinieth f itsihm be,ia pse. rThhaep sa basrolunted f3ig0u krge si f cahgaanigne w ine tthaek ed itfhfer eFnAtO eSsTtAimT a(t2e0s0, 7b)u et satlilm easttiems aatse sc ofimndp rtohmisi sber ofiagdu rresg,i obneaalr tinregn idn. NInomt wCiniatdhm satbagnoaddiniag ttahhne ddp iVoffsieersetinnbtal ems twi,m hcaotelnes s-oucfo mpurpontdtiuroycnt i aoanp dap nemda acrosrni ntsouem hfpiastivhoe nb , iitnahcser. oeTvaehsreal dla p,b iwcstouhlreue rties a ofsfi g giunrer aetesr and inTchrheaaislniangnge dp eiinrt catahpiepta ed pairfrofsed urtecotn ihotn ae vasnetd im rceoamntseaumsin,p ebtdiou ntf aianirl llC yea smttbiamotdiaciat. eaEnssd ft Viinmideat ttNheasims o boffr coaroaondus nrude m5g5ipo atnioadn l5 t0or vekgen/rdc a.p ita/ yseIaenrv r eCsrapemlc tybiveoealdyri siaf iwanen ttdha keVe iLtehateno Fa APmDO,RS Tc aoArnTes (un2mo00tp 7at)i voesantii lmaapbtpleese .a s rcso mtop rhomavise fiingucrees,a bseeardin, gw inh emrienad sth ien p ossible whTohlea-ciloaunndtr yi ta nadp pmeaarirnse fitosh hbaiavs.e I nr eThmaailianed da nfda itrhley Lsatoa PtiDc.R ,E tshtei mamaotuenst so afr ec osonmseuwmhaptt liowne ro avnedr m ore sRtaseteipcv owerirtahe ldt iy mpeera,o rpdse urihncat pitosh naer o eLusantdoim 3P0aD ktReg s iaf raegrae i nno wot eta trvaekaleii latahbbel leFe A.b O utS,T tAoT t (h2e0 0e7x) teestnimt atthesa at s tchoemyp rhoemlipse figures, bbeaurilndg itnh me ipndic atguarine ,t hteh peoyss isbhleo wh otlhe-acot utnhtery oanvde mraalrli nper fiosdhu bciatsi.o Thn eo afb csoalutge hfitg ufriessh c hisan lgaer igne th ien d ifferent etshtRime paMtoeesr,kt beoudnt gapl lrD oesedtliutmacat,t ieoCsn afi mnedsb ttohimdis iabrt oeaasnd d ar erTgeiho nanoaillat t nrreednl,di a.a bInled C bsamubta,o ldtleioar atinhnde t Vehixett LeNanaotm t,P hcDoanRts utahmnepdyti othnhe ealp pp ears to hcabeveun iitnlrdcar let ahseeigd ,ph wilcahtenurderases , io ntf hTh Veaiyeil tasnhdao miwt a, p taphenaadrts ttahor eha ovnevo rete rmianalciln rpedra ofsadiirnulygc s ttgiaortniec .a oEtfsl ytci mawauittgehsh o ttf i cfmiosnehs u (imFs ipgltaiuorrgne eo vienr several y1eta6hrs)e .in WM theek Leoamnog pP DhDaRes laitrzaee ,n oCatga aamvianibl aotbhdleia.a t athned fTighuarilea nfodr, Tahnadi lsamnda lilse rf oinr tthe wLahoo lPeD cRo uantdr yt.h e Acqeunatcraull thuirgeh plarnodsu cotfi oVni eitsn daomm, iannadte adr eb yn toht ei nMcreekaosningg d gerlteaa trleyg wiointh a tnidm ies (sFmigaulrl e e1lsR6ee)wp.o hWrteeerde pe r(moFdpiughcutairoseni z e1es7t ia)m.ga aAteiqsn au rtaeh cnauottl trtuehlrieab flpieg rbouudrt,eu t ocf tothiroe n Tex hhteaanislta tgnhardto tiwhse nyf o hdrer lpath mbeua ilwtdi hcthaoell lpeyi c citnuor uetn,h ttehre yy. s how that tdhAee oqltvuaear aicnllu prlrteoucdreuenc tpti orynoe doafu rccsatu i(goMhnte fiikssho d nisog lma rRgiienv iaent rte hCde oMbmyek mtohnisegs DiMoeelntka,, o 2Cn0agm0 7bdo;ed laitaal sa norde U gThSioaDnilAa an,d n2,d a0 n0ids7 ssm, malalelrl in the Lao PaDeltRlhs eaonwudgh thhe ert eche en(F tfriiagl uhrirgeh sl1a n7adr)se. o Aff oqVrui eatth cNeua lmwtu,h raoenld ep a rrooef dn Vuotice itntinocrnaeam hsin)a.gs Vggriereaottlnwya nwm idth ra atnimmtieac (itpFiciagatulerleys 1ic6no) .n tWhtiene uemepdh asize arga d aip e ni l d ta th ag i tr n to hw re e fit chegu, n r ea t n y fod e r a The rxsap ilae (M ncdt ek isd o f oc n ra g tt hf R ei s iv wh e h op r ler C o o cod m uunc m ttriyo is . n s A iqa o ul n ao , cn 2 ule 0 tu t 0 ro 7 e pe ; rox a dc l ue s ce o tid U o n1 S i, D s0 d0 A o0 , m,2i0 0 na0 0 t0 7 ed t , bo yn tnhee sM ekong db a ely l ta t2h r0 o eg0 u io7 g n h ( aM th nde e k iso fi sn g mgual r lR e ei s lv see a wr r h eC ero fo e m r (Fm th iguis e res w i1o h 7n o )., l A2 e q0 o u0 f ac7 V u)lt. ie u T tn reh a pe m r otdo ) ut . ca V tli i op e nr t ho n ad a su m gc rot aiwo n nn ti d c(irc p ama autatg e ich s at c ll yp o ir n no t td in hu u e c e dte d lta in rp r ecleu ap nst i ya d eq g aru r s a o (Mc wutel h ktou , nr a ge n R) d iivs e e rg x Cr peeoma cttemis d sst i c oin a n, t t f 2h is 00e h 7 Mp; ae ro lsk d o o u Un c Sg t D iDon A,e 2l ta0a lo 0 7( n , F e ailtg t hu o or e ugh x1c t8 e he) e .fi d gT uh 1 re ,0 es g 0 arr 0 ee , fa 0 ort 0 tg 0 hr t eo o ww n ht n oh e le s of Viet inb yp r2o0d0u7c t(ioMne ksoinncge R2i0v0e0r Ciso mgemneisrsailolyn ,m 2i0ss0e7d). b Tyh oet thoetra la purthodoursc tiinocnlu (dcianugg Bhat rparno deut ct Naaplm.l u)(.s2 V 0ai0eqt7 uN)a,ac mau nlatndut iroceinp)al ytise s m gcoernentatinitoeunesdet drian pi nitdh pgera oMswsteihnk, goan nbdg ye xDHpeeocltrtaetdl e (c Fa(it2gfi0suh0r ep7r )o1.d 8u )c.t ioTnh eal ognree tao te xgcreoedw 1t,h00 0,000 toinnn eps rboyd 2u0c0t7i o(Mn eskionncge R 2iv0e0r 0C oism mgeisnsieonra, 2ll0y0 7m).i sThsee dto tbayl porothduecrt iaonu t(hcaourgsh ti npcrolududcitn pgl uBs aaqrauanc uelttu re) is greaalt.e s(t2 in0 0th7e) M, aeknodn go Dnelylt am (Feignutrieo 1n8e)d. Th ine gpraeasts girnogw tbhy in H porordtluec t(io2n0 s0in7c)e. 2 000 is generally missed by other author4s 0in0cluding Baran et al. (2007), and only mentioned in passing by Hortle (2007). 340000 230000 120000 1000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 Year 1999 Laos 2000 Thailand 2001 Cambod2ia002 Vietn2a0m03 VC2H004 VMD2005 Year Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD Figure 16. Capture fish production from official statistics. Figure 16: Capture fish production from official statistics Figu1r2e0 016. Capture fish production from official statistics. 11020000 1800000 680000 460000 240000 2000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 Year 1999 Laos 2000 Thailand 2001 Cambo2d0ia02 Viet2n0a0m3 VC2H004 VMD2005 Year Figure 17: ALqauoasculture proTdhuacilatinodn from offiCcaiaml bstoadtiiastics Vietnam VCH VMD Figure 17. Aquaculture production from official statistics. 24Figure 17. Aquaculture production from official statistics. 28 28 AquacAuqlutuarceu, l0tu0r0e ,t o0n0n0e tsonnes CaptuCrea pfitsuhre, 0fi0s0h ,t o0n0n0e tsonnes 1500 1200 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 900 1500 600 1200 300 900 0 6001999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year 300 Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD 0 Figure 1189.9 9 Total fi2s0h0 0producti2o0n0 1from offic2i0a0l2 statistic2s0. 03 2004 2005 Year Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD The gross value of production calculated from the reported production estimates are Failgsuore n18o:t reTloiatabl lfies hb purot,d uacgtiaonin f rtoom tohffiec iealx sttaetnistti ctshat they help build the picture, they Fsihgouwre t h1a8t. thTeo otavle friaslhl vparloudeu octfi ofinsh f riosm la rogffei caianld s tinactirsetaicssin. g in the Mekong Delta, m Thaien glyro sbse vcalauue soef p orofd hucigtihon- vcaallcuuela t(ead nfrdo mla trhge erelypo ertxepd oprrotedudc)t ioanq eusaticmualtteus arree aplrsoo ndoutc rteiloianb le but, again to ( tFhieg euxrteen t1 t9h)at. tCheaym hbelop dbiuail da nthde pTihctauirlea, nthde yh sahovwe tshmat athllee orv perraolld vualcutei oofn fi, shin ics rlaerages ianngd increasing in the MT(ephkoreno gb Draobeslltysa , vmaaaliuninleyl ybo efac a purrseoep odofu rhctiigtnihog-vn aa lcuraet el(cafnuadcla tlat)re gidnel yfC reoxapmor bteohdde)i aarqe,u paaconurdlt uesrdet aptrriocod duincut icrotenico (enFni getu sryete i1ma9)ra.s tC eiansm bodia anaTdrh Thea ialiallsanond n. h oNavtoe r tseeml aiallgberal epinr ob dtuhutca,t tiao tngh,a ienin cfr ietgaous irtnehg e(fp oerrox bTtaehbnalyti mlathaniandlt y i tsah rfeopyro rhtthienelgp aw rbtheufoiallcdet ) tcihno eCu napmtircbytou.d riTaeh,, a ent hd estyat ic in resvcheanoltuw ye a tirhs aisntm Ththaaelille aonrv di.en Nr atohltle va gLaaliunoe thP oaDtf Rtfhi esa hfing duis r telh afoerr g Thcee aniltnarndad l iinhs cfigorreh talhasen iwndhgso lioen fc otVhuineet trMny.a eThmkeo, vn aglnu edD i esi sltm ana,ol lter in the Lamion acPriDneRlay sa nibndeg tc hageu rcseneat trolaylf hwhigiighthlha -ntvdimsa oluef .eV i(eta Nndam l,a arngde ilsy n oetx ipncorretaesidng) gareqautlay cwuitlhtu tirmee .production (Figure 19). Cambodia and Thailand have smaller production, increasing (probably mainly a reporting artefact) in Cambodia, and static in recent years in Thai2la0n00d. Note again that the figure for Thailand is for the whole country. The value is smaller in the Lao PDR and the central highlands of Vietnam, and is not incre1a5s0i0ng greatly with time. 21000 1500 1000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 500 Year Laos Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD Thailand Figu0re 19: Value of total fish production from official statistics Figure 11999. 9 Value o20f 0t0otal fish 2p0r0o1duction f2r0o0m2 official2 s0t0a3tistics. 2004 2005 Year V aVnan Z Zaalliingee e te atl. a(2l0. 0(3L2)a 0ogsa0v3e )t hge atCovatemal b tvohadleiua et iont 2a0l0 Vv0iea tanlsua emexc eined i2n0gV 0C$1H0. 7a bsi lleioVxnMc. eDAecdcoinrdgiTn h$ga 1tiola. 7nthd eb Milleiokonn.g River CoAmccmoisrsdioin g(2 0t0o5 )t,h thee Mtoetakl ovanluge oRfi fivsehr w Caso ambomut i$s2s,0io0n0 m(2ill0io0n5 in), 2 0th00e, atto atbaolu tv $a8l0u0e m oilfl iofins ihn Thw aisla nd, $ 750 maillbioonu itn V$2ie,t0 N0a0m ,m $5i0ll0io mni lliino n2 i0n 0C0am, abotd aiab aonud t$ 1$5800 m0i llmionil liino tnh ei nL aTo hPaDiRla. nThdi,s p$u7ts5 t0h em toitlalilo vnal uien a t about twFVoii gteout tnrhear em1e 9t,i .m$ e5s 0Vth0aa ltum sehio llowiofn n tino i tntah elC fifaigsmuhreb spo ardbooidave u.a cntido n$ 1fr5o0m m oilflfiiocnia iln s ttahteis Ltiacos .P DR. This puts the total value at about two to three times that shown in the figures above. VFaingu Zrea 2li0n sgheow es tt hael .g r(o2ss0 v0a3lu)e ogfa fivsehe tryh epr otodutactli ovna alsu pee ricne n2ta0g0e 0of athse egxrocses evadluine go f $ri1ce. 7p rbodilulicotino.n A . Since 19F9i c 9g c , u o thr r ee d g i r2 n o0 g ss s to vah luo t ew he os f M fitsh e he k er o yg n prro g os ds R u i cv v tia e onl ru C hea o so m inf cf m ries i ah ss see i dr o sy n ig np ( ir 2 fio 0 cad 0 nu 5 tlc ) yt ci , oo t mn h p ea ars t e o dp t te a or l tc v he a e n l grt u oa e sg s e o va f lo f uf i e s ot h f re w ic eg a pr s ro osdsu a ction. Asv b aa o rleu u sue t l to $ , tf 2 h r ,0 e icc 0 oe 0 n tp m rirbo i ud lli tiou o nc n t frioo in mn . 2 t 0 hS 0 ei fin 0 sc , he a er y1 t s9 a ec9 b t9 o or, u tot th $ the 8 e g 0 tor 0 to als m (sc il rv li opa o sl n ,u lie in ve o T stfo h cfki asi, ah la ne n dr fiy d s , hp $ )r ao 7 grd 5 icu 0 uc m lttuio il ran li l o ph n roa ds in u V ction has alsion ie cinr tn cerea a as m see , dd $ ( Fs 5 iigg 0 un 0 rei f m 2ic1a ill ). n io Thtl n ey v icnalo C um a e op m f afisr b he o d d as i t a ao p a rtoh n pe d or tg $ ior 1 no 5 s 0 os f m tvhea il vl luioale n u eo i of n f rr t iicc h ee e v ap L lur a eo o od ru P tc D ht R ei to . on T ta.l h A is vas lu pau e or t fe s as t gru h iclt e u, l total value at about two to three times that shown in the figures above. ture is greater in Cambodia and Viet Nam. Using the higher figures of Van Zalinge et al. (2003) and Mekong River CFomigmuirsesi o2n0 ( 2s0h0o5)w, tsh et hvael uge rroelsasti vve atolu reic eo, fo rf itsohtael raygr ipcuroltduruec, wtioounld a bse psigenricfiecannttalyg ger eoatfe rt.h The eg vraoluses o f fish wvo ualldu bee gorfe artiecre th panr othdaut cotf iroicne .i nS biontche C 1am99bo9d,i at ahned2 V9grieot sNsa mva inlu reec eonft fyiesahrse. ry production has increased significantly compared to the gross value of rice production. As a result, CPWF R4D 03 25 29 GVP of all fish, mGiVlliPon o $f all fish, million $ All fish, 000 toAnlnl efissh, 000 tonnes the contribution from the fishery sector to the total (crops, livestock, and fish) tahger iccounltturirbaul tpiorond furocmtio nth hea fsis ahlesroy insecrcetoars etod t(hFeig utortea l2 (1c)r.o Tphse, lvivaelusteo ockf ,f iashn da sfi sah ) apgrroicpuolrttuioranl opfr othdeu cvtaiolune h oafs raiclseo v ianlcuree aosre tdh e( Ftiogtuarle v 2al1u)e. Tohf ea gvraicluelt uorfe f iissh g arse aat er in pCraompobrotidoina oafn dth Ve ievtanluaem o. fU rsicineg v tahlue eh oigrh tehre f itgoutarel sv aolfu Ve aonf Zagalriincguelt uerte a ils. g(2re0a0t3e)r ain d CMaemkboondgi aR iavnedr CVoiemtnmaimss.i oUns i(n2g0 t0h5e) ,h tihghe evra fliugeu rresla otifv Ve atno Zriaclein, goer teot tall. a(g2r0ic0u3l)tu arned, Mweokuoldn gb eR isviegrn Cifiocmanmtliys sgiorena (t2er0.0 T5h),e tvhael uvea loufe f irsehla wtiovue ldto b reic ger, eoart etor ttahla ang rthicautl toufr eri,c e wino ublodt hb eC asimgnbiofidcian atlnyd g Vreieattnear.m T hine rveacleunet oyfe faisrsh. w ould be greater than that of rice in both Cambodia and Vietnam in recent years. 2011.08.04 .CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 01998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2Y0e0a1r 2002 2003 2004 Cambodia VietnaYmear VCH VMD Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD FigFuirgeur e2 200.: GGVVPP off fifsihsehrieers iaes sp earcse npteagrec oefn GtVagP eo f orifc eGVP of rice Figure 20. GVP of fisheries as percentage of GVP of rice 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 01998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1998 1999 2000 2Y0e0a1r 2002 2003 2004 Cambodia VietnYamear VCH VMD Figure 21: GVP of all fisherieCs aams b%o doiaf GVP oVfi ectrnoapms, livestVoCckH and fisVhMerDies Figure 21. GVP of all fisheries as % of GVP of crops, livestock and fisheries Figure 21. GVP of all fisheries as % of GVP of crops, livestock and fisheries W Whhiillee tthhe eav aaivlaabillea dbatlea adppaetaar saupffipcieenatr tos uesftfaibcliieshn bt rtooad e trsetnadbs,l itshher eb irs oclaeadr lyt rmeuncdh su,n ctehretarient yis. F ish as food anWdc ilhnecialoerml yteh amree uvaecvrhya iiumlanpbcolretra tndata iitnna tt yhae.p MFpieskhao nra gss, ua sff oafrioced iteh nae ntri vdteo ri sn eacnsodtam wbeelti lsaanhrd ebs wrvoheaerryde tithmree fipnsohdr sbtr,ae netdht eainnrde t ghirsoe w . There is a clecaMlre neaekreodly nf ogmr, m uaocsrhe a aurnned cbtehtrettea rr ieinvstteiymr.sa t Feaissn ohdf p awrsoed ftuolcaotindodn a s(ni nwdclh uiendircneog mpthreoed aufcirsteiho v nb efrorery ee xidmp oaprnto)d ra ntgadrn cootw nisn.u mTthpetio rne is a Mcleekaorn nge, eads faorre m thoere r iavnedrs b aenttde rw estltaimndast ews hoefr pe rtohdeu cfitsiho nb r(einecdlu adnindg g prorowd.u Tchtieorne fiosr a celexapro rnte) eadn dfo cr omnosurem apntido nb.e tter estimates of production (including production for export) and consumption. 30 30 Fish capture in the Mekong Delta 26 GVPG VoPf f iosfh f iassh %as o%f G oVf PG VoPf r oicfe rice GVPG VoPf f iosfh f iassh %as o%f G oVf PG VoPf r oicfe rice Source: Mohammed Mainuddin 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 4. Threats and opportunities for Mekong fish production The population of the lower Mekong Basin is likely to rise from the present 70 million to perhaps 80 million or more by 2020 and greater than 90 million by 2050 (based on medium variant projection, UN Population Division, 2006). Delgado et al. (2007) suggest that fish consumption in Southeast Asia to 2020 will grow at between 1.4 and 1.7% per annum, partly because of rising population and partly because of improving diets with increasing development (York and Gossard, 2004). Sokhem and Sunada (2006) suggest that an increase of between 0.4 and 1.621million tonnes/year will be required by 2050, based on a production of 3.1 m tonnes in 2003. These increases are roughly proportional to the expected increase in population, and therefore appear not to anticipate increasing fish in the diet. A growth rate of 1.4% per annum, as suggested by Delgado et al. (2007), from the 3.1 m tonne base figure in 2003 would lead to an increase in demand of 0.8 and 2.9 million tonnes/year to 2020 and 2050, respectively, and a growth rate of 1.7% per annum would lead to increases of 1.0 and 3.7 million tonnes/year. At the same time, there are concerns about several threats to the capture fisheries of the lower Mekong Basin (Sverdrup-Jensen, 2002; Mekong River Commission, 2003; Vanhan, 2004; Mollot et al. 2005; Baran et al. 2001a, Baran et al, 2007), viz: - Removal of rapids, siltation, and changes to vegetation result in the destruction of spawning grounds and dry-season fish refuges. - Dam construction and increased river diversions change the quantity and timing of flows for sensitive habitats and especially the annual flooding, which is associated with a large increase in fish populations. Dam development will alter the timing and magnitude of flows, and in particular will decrease flood peaks (Podger et al., 2004) and hence reduce the seasonal expansion of the Tonle Sap and flooding of seasonal wetlands elsewhere in the basin. This will in turn jeopardise fishery production, which is correlated with the magnitude of the flood (e.g. Baran et al., 2001b, 2007). Although the change in flows may not be large, the impact on fisheries would be considerable (Baran et al., 2007). - Sediment trapping in completed hydropower dams in the upper Mekong has reduced sediment transport downstream leading to concerns that this will limit the supply of fresh nutrients for ecosystems in the lower basin, and hence affect fish production (Kummu and Varis, 2007). Water quality may also be affected by increased sediment load due to deforestation expanding the area of crops. - Dams and weirs present physical barriers, which limits fish migration. Declines in fish production in the lower Mun River after the closing of the Pak Mun dam was largely due to the constraint on migration (Amornsakchai et al., 2000). The proposed Don Sahong dam appears likely to repeat this experience (Baran and Ratner, 2007). - Over-fishing, of large species in particular but also of the whole assemblage (Allan et al., 2005). Baran et al. (2007) suggests that illegal fishing and over-fishing is a problem in the Tonle Sap and Mekong Delta regions. In addition, there is concern about the ability of international institutions and agreements to deal with these issues, and the inadequacy of environmental impact assessments in respect of aquatic habitat and biodiversity (e.g. Sokhem and Sunada, 2006; Hirsch, 2005; Campbell and Parnrong, 2001). Notwithstanding the threats, there has been considerable growth in aquaculture in the lower Mekong Basin, particularly in the delta in Viet Nam. It is the only growth in production that can reliably be established from all the estimates discussed in section 3. The growth was about 400,000 tonnes/year in aquaculture in the Mekong Delta over the five years from 2000. Aquaculture in the delta is thus currently increasing production at a rate sufficient 21 Sokhem and Sunada give the increase to 2050 as 1.29 million tonnes, but in two places state that 4.7 million tonnes will be required, which is an increase of 1.6 million tonnes over the 3.1 million tonne base in 2003. The 1.29 million tonnes is obviously an error. CPWF R4D 03 27 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 to cope with the anticipated future demand. It is reasonable to suppose that further growth is likely. Much of the aquaculture production was for export, however; continued growth in export will further increase the pressure on future production. Furthermore, the growth in aquaculture cannot be expected to increase indefinitely and does carry environmental costs. Growth of aquaculture depends on wild fish fry or trash fish as a feed and also on the introduction of exotic species (Vu and Bach, 2005; Baran et al., 2007), so the growth may be constrained and may also pose an additional threat to capture fisheries. Baran et al. (2007) argue that the emphasis should be on the protection of the current wild fish resources. Coates (1996) viewed opinions about the prospects for aquaculture growth as being over-optimistic, but having some justification, and also argued for the preservation of current resources. Rice-fish farming systems offer prospects for improved production and livelihoods, but they must be managed with considerable care as integrated systems so that rice farming and pesticide use does not affect the fish production (Berg, 2002; Nguyen-Khoa et al., 2005; Frei and Becker, 2005). In addition, the reservoirs for irrigated rice production also yield extra fish (Sverdrup-Jensen, 2002), and the total fish from a reservoir and rice-fish paddy system may be greater than the loss of fish due to the creation of irrigation infrastructure (Nguyen-Khoa et al., 2005). Baran et al. (2007), on the other hand, caution that aquaculture production is likely to be less than the loss of production from capture fisheries. What is not clear from these studies is how much rice production is accompanied by fish production, although the implication is that current levels are low. Nor is the potential level of production quantified. How much current rice production could be accompanied by fish production? What would be the production of fish if all rice production were so managed? Given these competing factors, what are the prospects for increasing fisheries productivity to meet the likely increased demand by 2020 and 2050? The available information appears inadequate to answer this question fully but we may note that: - If over-fishing is beginning to change the size and composition of the catch, capture fisheries may not be able to meet the increased demand; - In addition, there is no indication of growth in the production estimates of capture fishery, with the national statistics being unreliable and the consumption-based figures being just for one year, again indicating that capture fisheries may not be able to meet the increased demand; - Nevertheless, since capture fisheries are the largest sector of fishery production, the prospects of meeting demand will be seriously jeopardized by any reduction in the current capture fishery resulting from dams and other developments and consequent changes to hydrology. It is therefore crucial that these developments do not impact the ecology of the river and its fisheries; - The reservoir catch may offer scope for increased production, although presumably not at a scale sufficient to meet the demand; - Rice-fish systems may also offer scope for increased production, although the basin-wide impact has not been quantified; - Aquaculture has grown dramatically in recent years, at a rate far above that required to meet future demand (it is nearly doubling every year). It therefore appears in principle to be capable of meeting the demand. We are not aware of any study that quantifies the physical, social or other limits to aquaculture production, however. As mentioned by Baran et al. (2007) growth that relies on wild fish fry may be limited, but the implications of this are not quantified. So, will fishery production meet the anticipated demand? As shown, the current estimates give no means to answer the question quantitatively, and so we can only speculate and offer our opinion. We offer four scenarios; no doubt more are possible. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive. Decline of the capture fishery. As demand rises, there is unchecked over-fishing and illegal fishing of the capture fishery resource, combined with changed flow regimes resulting from upstream dam development and irrigation diversion. The fishery for a while yields extra production with change in the size of individuals and species in the 28 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 catch, but ultimately declines greatly. This is similar to the experience in Bangladesh (e.g. World Bank, 2006, Chapter 4), and for a similar mix of physical and institutional reasons. Maintenance of the capture fishery. Many dams are built, but mostly well upstream on the main channel and in the tributaries, and the management of releases limits the impact on flows; the Don Sahong in the Lao PDR and other high impact dams are not built by negotiating transboundary agreements. In the main downstream fisheries, the institutions (especially community management and a system of enforced access and property rights) are put in place. Cambodia experimented with community access in 2000, though the system was incomplete and not very successful (Ratner, 2006). Unchecked, export driven rise in aquaculture. The current growth in aquaculture in the Mekong Delta continues, and spreads to areas upstream. While the growth in production is sufficient to satisfy the growing demand, most of it goes for export. The benefits are thus mainly income, and confined to those directly and indirectly employed in the sector and those who own production and marketing facilities. The rural poor outside this sector benefit little, and indeed are disadvantaged by competing for fish at higher prices. In addition, there are largely unchecked adverse impacts on the environment, ranging from destruction of other habitats (including mangroves and wetlands), pollution, pressure on capture fisheries to provide feed, and disease epidemics in the farmed fish. Regulated rise in aquaculture. The current growth in aquaculture is maintained, but the emphasis shifts to rice-fish and small pond systems (as in Bangladesh), with much of the increase being for local consumption. This scenario will only be realized with considerable local extension and education, backed by research into local management factors, species, and social uptake. This scenario, coupled with maintenance of the capture fisheries, is the only one that copes with the projected increase in future local demand. Our main point in describing these scenarios is to emphasise that there are choices, and not all of them lead to outcomes that will maintain the current level of fish in the local diet. Mekong Delta CPWF R4D 03 29 Source: Mohammed Mainuddin 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 5. Conclusions There are major uncertainties in estimates of fisheries production and value in the lower Mekong Basin. Catch surveys underestimate the production, although recent catch survey estimates in Cambodia report production since 2001 greatly larger than in earlier years probably as a result of taking the non-commercial catch into account. Consumption surveys generally result in higher estimates of production, but nevertheless report a range of values. The highest estimates are from 42 kg/capita/year in the Lao PDR to 65 kg/capita/year in Cambodia. The data and methods supporting the higher estimates are not readily available for evaluation, however. Fishery production is dominated by capture fisheries in Cambodia, where it is concentrated around the Tonle Sap and the Mekong River, and in the Lao PDR and Thailand. In Viet Nam, aquaculture dominates production, and is concentrated around the main rivers in the Delta and along the coastal strip. The uncertain estimates of production make conclusions based on them tentative, but it appears that production from capture fisheries increased relatively little from about 1995 to 2005 in all the four lower Mekong countries. A large reported increase in Cambodia in recent years appears to be a change in estimation methodology rather than a true increase in production. In aquaculture, there is a clear, large increase in production in the Mekong Delta region of Viet Nam since about 2000. Much of the increased production is probably for export. The value of the fisheries is, like the production, somewhat uncertain. The greatest estimates of value, using the consumption based estimates of production, put the value of the 2000 catch at about $3 billion. Other estimates (including those using other consumption figures) place the overall value somewhat lower. The value is probably not changing greatly with time, though again the range of estimates and poor data mean that this conclusion is tentative. Aquaculture in Viet Nam is rapidly increasing in value, to match the increase in production, and in 2005 was worth over $1 billion. Aquaculture is also growing in Cambodia but is still in its infancy. The contribution of the fisheries sector to overall agricultural (crop, livestock and fish) production is small in the Lao PDR and Thailand. The crop sector is the biggest contributor in all countries. The contribution from fisheries is smaller than that of livestock in the Lao PDR and Thailand and bigger than livestock in Cambodia and Viet Nam. While the fisheries sector in Viet Nam has grown in recent years, the crop and livestock sectors remain more or less static. The demand for fish will inevitably rise in the future, partly as a result of increasing population in the region and partly as a result of increasing incomes. Over and above this, fish exports are also likely to rise. The lower Mekong fisheries face threats to production from dams, changed water availability and quality, barriers to fish migration, and over-fishing. If the increased demand is to be met, these threats must be managed in such ways that the developments do not reduce the production of fish, especially of capture fish. The increasing demand appears unlikely to be met through an increase in production of capture fisheries. The current rapid growth of aquaculture, if it can be maintained, appears capable of meeting the demand. There are neither quantitative estimates of the limits to growth of aquaculture, however, nor how and whether it will pose risks for the capture fisheries by taking small fish fry as feed for aquaculture fish. Therefore, doubts remain whether the current growth of aquaculture can be maintained. Rice-fish farming may also contribute to increased production, but again the impact has yet not been quantified. 30 2011.08.20.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 Fish landing, Khong Island, Laos CPWF R4D 03 31 Source: MRC 2011.08.04.CPWF R4D-03.draftv2 References Ahmed, M., H. Navy, L. Vuthy, and M. Tiongco 1998. Socio-economic assessment of freshwater capture fisheries of Cambodia: Report on Household Surveys. Mekong River Commission, Phnom Penh, Cambodia. 186p. Allan, J.D., R. Abell, Z. Hogan, C. Revenga, B.W. Taylor, R.L. Wellcome, and K. Winemiller 2005. Overfishing of inland waters. Bioscience 55, 1041-1051. Amornsakchai, S., P. Annez, S. Vonvisessomjai, S. Choowaew, P. Kunurat, J. Nippanon, R. 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R4D 02 Use of decision support systems to improve dam planning and dam operation in Africa. Matthew McCartney and Jackie King, 2011. R4D 03 Fishery productivity and its contribution to overall agricultural production in the Lower Mekong River Basin. Mohammed Mainuddin, Mac Kirby and Yun Chen, 2011. About CPWF The Challenge Program on Water and Food was launched in 2002 as a reform initiative of the CGIAR, the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. CPWF aims to increase the resilience of social and ecological systems through better water management for food production (crops, fisheries and livestock). CPWF does this through an innovative research and development approach that brings together a broad range of scientists, development specialists, policy makers and communities to address the challenges of food security, poverty and water scarcity. CPWF is currently working in six river basins globally: Andes, Ganges, Limpopo, Mekong, Nile and Volta. About this R4D Paper The Bac Lieu Province in the Mekong Delta is part of the Cà Mau Peninsula and is an important food- growing area in Viet Nam. It has a population of 830,000 with approximately 116,000 farming families living on small parcels of land producing a range of commodities for food security and the export market. These farmers and aquaculturalists (together called producers in this report) are highly dependent on accessing the right quality water, fresh or saline or both, at the right time to grow their crops or raise their shrimp, crabs or fish. This evaluation was intended to identify what contribution the project had made to reducing poverty and food insecurity in the Mekong Delta as a result of an investment by the CPWF. The success of this project, however, can be attributed to its positive interaction with policy development, integrating good science with the tacit knowledge of producers, having the right players at the table at the right time and having built-in evaluative processes so partners could monitor progress. Mailing address: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food P.O. Box 2075 127 Sunil Mawatha, Pelawatta, Battaramulla, Sri Lanka Tel +94 11 288 0143 Fax +94 11 278 4083 Email: cpwfsecretariat@cgiar.org www.waterandfood.org