Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia March 2025 CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 2 of 112 © 2025 CGIAR System Organization. This publication is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. Acknowledgment Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Precision Development, Digital Green, LERSHA/Green Agro Solution PLC, Stichting Wageningen Research Ethiopia, Self Help Africa (SHA), Amhara Agricultural Research Institute (ARARI), Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI) Citation: Desta, G., Yitaferu, B., Yesigat, H., Tigabie, A., Mesfin, T., Tesfu, D., Tamene, L., Sartas, M., Agegnehu, G., Agumas, B., Teklewold, T., Tefera, E., Asfaw, D., Melesse, M., Abera, W., Nadew, F., Nasir, A., Legesse, G., Bezabih, A., Damene, B., Rooyen, A.v., Patil, M., Zerfu, E., and Low, J. 2025. Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) & Alliance Bioversity International CIAT (Alliance). CGIAR. This strategy was developed as part of the CGIAR Initiative in Excellence in Agronomy, supported by Gates Foundation through CGIAR Portfolio Performance Management (PPU). The CGIAR Initiative in Excellence in Agronomy is now part of the CGIAR Sustainable Farming Program. CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future. Its science is carried out by 15 Research Centers in close collaboration with hundreds of global partners. www.cgiar.org ICRISAT and Alliance are grateful to Gates Foundation for supporting this work through CGIAR PPU. This publication is copyrighted by ICRISAT and Alliance. It is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence. To view this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. 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Key Words: Innovation, Harmonized fertilizer solutions, scaling delivery, scaling pathways, responsible scaling, Ethiopia ©2024 International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) & Alliance Bioversity International CIAT (Alliance) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 https://ap-south-1.protection.sophos.com/?d=cgiar.org&u=aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jZ2lhci5vcmc=&p=m&i=NjVlZWRmOWFkNDlmODU3ODBjMDBkNTQ1&t=ZkhRbkRyNGQ2cStTTCtBcWlJcDVtV2dMR1BBK0x3NWRLazhBU3R3T2pCRT0=&h=20ba44ee98dc48bb8276cd2e001a80aa&s=AVNPUEhUT0NFTkNSWVBUSVZ4SO1ACNTW2f2i3Y7ZgH5ny4khVYAYZJ4RXqTcYLLCWw https://ap-south-1.protection.sophos.com/?d=creativecommons.org&u=aHR0cHM6Ly9jcmVhdGl2ZWNvbW1vbnMub3JnL2xpY2Vuc2VzL2J5LzQuMA==&p=m&i=NjVlZWRmOWFkNDlmODU3ODBjMDBkNTQ1&t=U0VNQlhUbStpY0VKRGZEekdKZHN3blBmSGhwb2pUUTVVdUlTZ2xVV1R1OD0=&h=20ba44ee98dc48bb8276cd2e001a80aa&s=AVNPUEhUT0NFTkNSWVBUSVZ4SO1ACNTW2f2i3Y7ZgH5ny4khVYAYZJ4RXqTcYLLCWw Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 3 of 112 CGIAR Authors Gizaw Desta1, Birru Yitaferu4, Habtamu Yesigat5, Abiro Tigabie1, Tewodros Mesfin6, Daniel Tesfu7, Lulseged Tamene6, Murat Sartas8, Getachew Agegnehu1, Birhanu Agumas9, Tilay Teklewold10, Eshetayehu Tefera11, Dinkneh Asfaw12, Mequanint Melesse2, Wuletawu Abera6, Freyhiwot Nadew5, Abdelah Nasir13, Gizachew Legesse1, Addisu Bezabih4, Belew Damene12, Andre van Rooyen1, Mukund Patil3, Elias Zerfu14, and Jan Low15 1International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Nairobi, Kenya 3International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Hyderabad, India 4Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 5Precision Development, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 6Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 7Digital Green, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 8Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Kigali, Rwanda 9Amhara Agricultural Research Institute 10Stichting Wageningen Research Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 11USAID Policy Link, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 12Self Help Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 13LERSHA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 14Independent Consultant, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 15JWLOW Limited, Nairobi, Kenya Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Table of Contents | Page 4 of 112 CGIAR Table of Contents Abbreviations 9 Acknowledgments 11 Executive Summary 12 Section 1. Problem Statement and Existing Demand 17 1.1 Background 17 1.2 Relevance in the Country Context 19 1.3 Current Demand in Broader Context and Relevant Competition 19 Section 2. The Core Innovation(s) and Solution Statement 23 2.1 History of Innovation Development 23 2.2 Innovations: Core Innovation and Complementary Recommendations 24 2.3 Scaling Readiness of Core Innovation(s) 26 2.3.1 Barriers to Scale and Ideas for Overcoming or Mitigating These Barriers 28 Section 3. The Context-Specific Innovation Bundle and Package 31 3.1 Complementary Solutions for Effective, Efficient, and Inclusive Scaling 31 3.1.1 Going Beyond Single Advisory Tool for Multiple Crops 34 3.2 Reflection on Responsible Scaling Principles 35 3.3 Scaling Ambition, Key Desired Outcomes and Target Client Groups 37 3.3.1 Scaling Ambition 37 3.3.2 Market Size of Digital Advisory Tools 38 3.3.3 Farmer Segmentation 38 3.4 Theory of Change to Reach Desired Outcomes 40 3.5 Context of the Existing Enabling Environment in Ethiopia 41 3.5.1 Overview of the Enabling Environment in Ethiopia 41 3.5.2 Descriptions on the Existing Policy Instruments 42 3.5.3 The Regulatory Environment 44 3.5.4 How Innovation Package Fits within Food System or Ecosystem Framework 45 Section 4. Scaling Pathways 45 4.1 Pathways to Scale LAFA and HaFAS Innovation Components 45 Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Table of Contents | Page 5 of 112 CGIAR 4.1.1 Public Sector-led Pathway 46 4.1.2 Public-private Partnership (PPP) Pathway 47 4.1.3 Cooperative-led Pathway 47 4.1.4 Private Business (Market-led) Pathway 47 4.2 Timeline and Pathways to Scale 48 4.3 Prospects for Financial Sustainability 49 Section 5. Critical Design Elements, Costs and Benefits 51 5.1 Value Proposition for Each Partner in the Scaling Strategy 51 5.2 Designing a Practical Delivery System for a Digitally Enabled Agro-advisory System, LAFA 55 5.3 Customizing Delivery of LAFA Services using Potential Interfaces 61 5.4 Expected Benefits for End Users 62 5.4.1 Benefits of Landscape-based Fertilizer Advisory Tool (LANDWise), a Preceding Tool to LAFA 63 5.4.2 NextGen Fertilizer Advisory Tool, a Preceding Tool to LAFA 63 5.4.3 Environmental Benefits 63 5.5 The Cost Structure 64 5.6 Understanding the Competition 66 5.7 Business Case for Market-led Packages and Selected Components of PPPs 67 5.7.1 Market-based Model 67 5.7.2 A Public Private Partnership model 68 5.8 Capacity and Investment Needs to Implement the Scaling Strategy 69 5.9 Setting Scaling Use and Adoption Targets 71 Section 6. Financial and Strategic Support for the Next Six Years 74 6.1 Identification of Best Options for Financial Support 74 6.2 Investor Assessment 75 6.3 Funding Scenarios 77 6.4 Development of the Convincing Pitch 77 6.5 Advocacy and Communication Plan for the Scaling Narrative 81 Section 7. System Strengthening 82 7.1 Governance and Partnership Management 82 7.2 Capacity Strengthening 87 7.3 Monitoring, Evaluation, Learning and Impact Assessment (MELIA) Plan 90 7.3.1 Key Performance Indicators 90 7.3.2 Monitoring, Reporting, and Feedback Protocols 92 7.3.3 Digital Data Collection, Analytics, and Visualization 92 Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Table of Contents | Page 6 of 112 CGIAR 7.3.4 Data and Information Sharing 93 7.4 Research and Evaluation 93 7.5 Adaptive Management and Stakeholder Engagement 94 Section 8. Implementation Plan for 2025 95 8.1 Projected Reach and Target Locations for Pre-scaling in 2025 95 8.2 Outputs and Activities Matrix in 2025 96 8.3 Logic Model for Phase I 102 Section 9. Annexes 103 Annex 1. Action Plan 103 Annex 2. Phased Investment Approach 106 Annex 3. Key indicators and targets for the first five-year period 108 Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Table of Tables | Page 7 of 112 CGIAR Table of Tables Table 2.1. Identified barriers to scale, their relevance to different market segments, and proposed mitigation strategies 28 Table 3.1.1. Innovation package components for Fertilizer Ethiopia Use Case (Sartas, et al., 2021) 32 Table 3.1.2. Innovation package components for Digital Green Use Case (Sartas, et al, 2021) 33 Table 3.1.3. The innovation readiness levels for each component of the LAFA agro-advisory tools 33 Table 3.3.3. Diverse farmer segments in Ethiopia and their key characteristics 39 Table 5.1. Summary of Partners’ Key Functions (Existing and Potential) for the HaFAS Scaling Delivery Strategy 52 Table 5.2. Possible gaps and proposed solutions while working in partnerships among multiple actors 54 Table 5.3. Phased Scaling Ambitions and Practical Delivery Design for site-specific, digitally enabled fertilizer and agronomy advisory solutions 56 Table 5.4. Scaling use and adoption targets by three scaling phases (2026 to 2040) 73 Table 6.1. Donor support mapping over the scaling phases 75 Table 6.2. Values of the LAFA and complementary innovation for pitching 78 Table 6.3. Summary of communication channels and advocacy strategy by audience segment 81 Table 7.1. MELIA structure for governance of the partnership platform 86 Table 7.2. Summary of capacity strengthening priorities in different scaling phases 87 Table 7.3. Key Performance Indicators 90 Table 7.4. Type of data collection tools and workflow to be adopted in MELIA 93 Table 7.5. Research needs and priority research areas 94 Table 8.1. Output and activity matrix and approximate implementation by year (2025) 96 Table 8.2. Implementation plan with major activities aligned with scaling the harmonized Fertilizer Digital Advisory (LAFA) in 2025 98 Table 8.3. Logical framework (with outcomes and outputs specified) and risks that may hinder the achieving of the desired results for phase I (2026 to 2030). 102 Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Table of Figures | Page 8 of 112 CGIAR Table of Figures Figure 1.2. Trends in major cereal crop production on smallholder farms (meher season) from 2003/04-2020/21 (CSA data). Source: Ahmed and Mekuriaw (2023). 19 Figure 1.3.1. Africa Fertilizer: Fertilizer Statistics Overview Ethiopia: 2010-2023 (Source: IFDC (2024)) 20 Figure 1.3.2. Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR) Digital Agriculture Ecosystem Assessment Framework 21 Figure 2.1. Key timeline and efforts in soil fertility research and development in Ethiopia (Erkossa et al., 2022) 24 Figure 2.2. The framework of the technical solutions of the national harmonized HaFAS workflow 26 Figure 3.1.4. Stepwise scaling implementation of core advisories and complementary innovations during the three scaling phases. Data, validation, and interface-related innovations will be continuously deployed to generate bundled core advisories 34 Figure 3.2. Validation sites across the major cereal growing areas in forty-nine zones across seven regional states 35 Figure 3.4. Theory of Change for the Use of the Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomy Solutions (HaFAS) 41 Figure 4.1. A pictorial illustration of the scaling pathways and potential delivery channels to reach different segments of farmers 46 Figure 5.1. Collaborative Advantage of a group of actors to collectively deliver more than the sum of their input parts (info@tpiglobal.org). 51 Figure 5.2. A graphical representation of a phased iterative scaling process for a site-specific, digitally enabled fertilizer and agronomy advisory solutions 56 Figure 5.3. Complementarity Components of the Harmonized Advisory System 67 Figure 7.1. The structural arrangement of the governance of partnerships in the scaling of the HaFAS 83 CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Abbreviations| Page 9 of 112 Abbreviations ACC Agriculture Commercialization Cluster ACIAR Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research AfDB Africa Development Bank AGRA Alliance for Green Revolution in Africa AICCRA Accelerating Impact of CGIAR Climate Research in Africa API Application Programming Interface ATI Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute AU Africa Union BCR Benefit to Cost Ratio BMZ German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Program CBO Community-based Organizations CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture COW Coalition of the Willing CSA Climate Smart Agriculture DA Development agents DAEAS Digital agriculture and extension advisory services DAEAS Digital Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services DAR Digital Agriculture Roadmap DGF Digital Green Foundation DST Decision Support Tool EAA Ethiopian Agricultural Authority EABC Ethiopia Agriculture Business Corporation EABC Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation EFS Ethiopian Food System EIA Excellence in Agronomy EIAR Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research EthioSIS Ethiopian Soil Information System EU European Union FARA Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa FCA Federal Cooperative Agency FDRE Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia FGDs Focus Group Discussions FTC Farmer Training Centers GCF Green Climate Fund HaFAS Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomy Solutions ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics ICT Information and Communication Technology Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Abbreviations | Page 10 of 112 CGIAR IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFDC International Fertilizer Development Center IGAD Intergovernmental Authority for Development IK Indigenous Knowledge INSA Information Network Security Agency IRR Internal Rate of Return ISFM Integrated Soil Fertility Management IVR Interactive Voice Response KPI Key Performance Indicator LAFA Localized Agronomy and Fertilizer Advisory MEL Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning MELIA Monitoring, Evaluation, Learning, and Impact Assessment MInT Ministry of Innovation and Technology MOA Ministry of Agriculture NARS National Research System NGOs Non-Government Organizations NPS Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Sulphur NSIS National Soil Information System OCP Office Chérifien des Phosphates OFRA Optimizing Fertilizer Recommendation in Africa OoA Office of Agriculture PES Pluralistic Extension Service PPP Private Public Partnership PVP Partner Value Proposition PxD Precision Development R&D Research and Development RARIs Regional Agricultural research Institutes RBOA Regional Bureaus of Agriculture RDP Rural Development Policy SAA Sasakawa Africa Association SACCOS Saving and Credit Cooperative Society SHA Self Help Africa SLM Sustainable Land Management SMS Short Message Service SWC Soil and Water Conservation SWRE Stichting Wageningen Research Ethiopia TAMAS Taking Maize Agronomy to Scale TOC Theory of Change USAID United States Agency for International Development WB World bank CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Acknowledgments| Page 11 of 112 Acknowledgments The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT), the Alliance of Bioversity and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), the Excellence in Agronomy (EiA) Initiative, and the contributors to the Scaling Delivery Strategy acknowledge the financial support of the Gates Foundation obtained through a competitive process from the CGIAR Portfolio Performance Unit (PPU). We extend our gratitude to Dr. Murat Sartas for his contribution to developing the grant proposal and his role in shaping the strategy document. Mrs. Elizabeth Kamau, Senior Portfolio Associate in EiA played a role in facilitating the relationship with the PPU team and her follow-up of the progress. Thanks to Dr. Birru Yitaferu, Senior Soil Scientist & Researcher and Coordinator, Capacity Sharing (CapSha) Fertilizer Digital Support Tool (DST) Project in EIAR, who created space to present the strategy to wider audiences during the December 2024 workshop and for his lead in coordinating the technical team on validation data management. We also extend our thanks to the participants of the two co- design workshops in October 2024 and January 2025 and throughout the co-design process of the scaling delivery strategy. Special thanks go to HE Dr. Melese Mekonnen, State Minister of Agriculture Development and Horticulture of the Ministry of Agriculture and co-chair of the DST Coordination Platform, for his buy-in, guidance, and informing his team for their support of the process and future actions. Dr. Driba Geleti, Deputy Director General of the EIAR and co-chair of the DST Coordination Platform, for his commitment to taking the EIAR a leading role in the research support system. Mrs. Yenenesh Egu, CEO of Extension in the Ministry of Agriculture, provided her great support to the strategy development process and immediate consideration of the process as part of the agenda of the extension and capacity building technical team under the Rural Economic Development and Food Security (RED&FS) platform. We thank the CEO of Crop Development in the Ministry of Agriculture, Mr. Esayas Lemma, for his support behind the strategy development process. The scaling strategy is realized with great interest and collaboration of NARS partners to pool the national research data for the harmonization of advisory. We appreciate the interest and active participation of key partners and their teams in the writing of the strategy and their interest in moving forward with the implementation of the strategy starting in 2025. The core writing team extends appreciation to Dr. Jan Low, agricultural economist and 2016 World Food Prize Laureate, for her guidance in the process and the facilitation role throughout the development of the strategy. We extend our thanks to Barbra Sehlule Muzata, Communication Officer at EIA, for her support in the final editing and layout of the strategy. Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Executive Summary | Page 12 of 112 CGIAR Executive Summary The Problem: Ethiopia's agriculture sector, which employs over 70% of the population, faces significant challenges in enhancing crop productivity and maintaining soil health. Over 70% of cultivated agricultural land is used to produce cereals, using 60% of the rural workforce. Moreover, over 50% of the daily caloric intake of an average household in Ethiopia is from wheat, sorghum, and maize. Yet, there are substantial yield gaps in maize, wheat, teff, and sorghum, with actual yields far below their potential. Inefficient fertilization practices, including incorrect application rates based on blanket recommendations that do not account for variations in soil type, topography, and crop type, limit the effectiveness of fertilizer use. Soil quality has been a concern of the Ethiopian government for some time, with soil fertility research starting in the 1950s. Affordability of fertilizer has become a major issue, even among commercial farmers, since the onset of the Russian Ukrainian war. The Ethiopian government is committed to improving crop productivity, as demonstrated by their expenditure of $1.1 billion on 1.35 million metric tons of fertilizer imports in 2023. Increasing fertilizer use efficiency is central to maximizing the benefit from its fertilizer investment and minimizing the potential negative impacts of its use on the environment. In addition, as fertilizer is mostly distributed through cooperatives, fertilizer is mostly accessed by market-oriented male farmers. The government recognizes that women’s access to advisory services, in person or digital, is 41% lower than men’s. The Core Innovation: The core innovation is a digital localized agronomy and fertilizer advisory tool (LAFA) that combines and harmonizes earlier work on two separately developed digital tools, the NextGen Fertilizer Advisory System developed by the Alliance of CIAT and Bioversity, and the landscape-based Specific Fertilizer Recommendation (LANDWise) developed by ICRISAT. There are other agro-advisory services, such as climate information, lime application advice, and crop-specific soil and agronomic advice that can be potentially bundled into LAFA and/or broader Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS). The HaFAS framework is modular, meaning innovations and improvements in one part of the HaFAS ecosystem do not affect other parts of the system. Through a convening harmonization meeting in September 2023 and a subsequent launch meeting in November 2023, a harmonized digital decision-support tool (DST) framework led by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and NARS (EIAR and RARIs) was adopted, which integrated multiple decision support tools (DSTs) into a comprehensive agro-advisory system, principally using digital delivery channels to service rural farmers directly or through extension personnel. The HaFAS will provide public access to data contributed by multiple organizations in a “Coalition of the Willing (CoW),” including a national soil database, remote sensing databases, and decades of findings from on-farm trials on fertilizer response for specific crops. A major component is harmonized site- specific fertilizer recommendations and bundled agro-advisories tailored to specific crop and geographic needs and adapted to variable climate scenarios, referred to as the Localized Agronomy and Fertilizer Advisory (LAFA). Extensive field validations of the LAFA have been conducted in 2024 across 1,570 farmers' fields to ensure the recommendations are practical and context specific. Data are being analyzed during the first quarter of 2025. The LAFA integrates machine learning, the QUEFTS model, extensive agronomic data, and geospatial covariates to provide optimized fertilizer recommendations. Practitioners can integrate the LAFA into user-friendly interfaces, such as APIs, dashboards, chatbots, IVR, mobile apps, web apps, and SMS, to ensure accessibility and practicality. This initiative aligns with the government's focus on Digital Agriculture Roadmap 2032 and modernized agricultural strategies on digital agriculture and extension advisory services (DAEAS). It is of note that the core now harmonized innovation, LAFA, is still under wide-scale validation in 2025 under different paths and referred to as the pre-scaling period. Current Demand and Market Context: There is a clear demand for innovative, site-specific nutrient management solutions in Ethiopia due to yield gaps, soil fertility issues, and the need for sustainable agricultural practices. The Ethiopian government imports approximately 1.6 million MT of fertilizer annually (from 2020 through 2023) and 2.4 million MT in 2024, with the Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) importing 90% of the fertilizers used and distributing them through cooperatives. The agriculture market size in Ethiopia is estimated at USD 5.09 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 6.65 billion by 2029. Despite the high use of fertilizer, farmers' yields reach only 20-40% of what is possible with best practices. The HaFAS aims to improve nutrient use efficiency by 20% and increase national cereal production from 31.6 million to at least 140 million metric tons by 2040. Emerging interest from impact investors indicates a growing recognition of the potential for technology-driven agriculture in Ethiopia. The challenge for the government is to coordinate public and private efforts in the digital agriculture arena to avoid duplication and inefficiencies. Enabling Environment: Ethiopia has made notable progress in digital agriculture roadmap development, bolstered by government policies that foster innovation and technological adoption and encourage private sector participation. Ethiopia's government has enacted several policy instruments and produced technical documents that support digital agriculture, including the Agricultural and Rural Development Policy (2024), the Digital Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services (DAEAS) Roadmap 2025, the Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR) 2032, and the Digital Ethiopia 2025 strategy. The vision of the DAR 2032 is to have “inclusive, affordable, sustainable, and interoperable digital solutions, supported by a coordinated and aligned ecosystem, which CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Executive Summary| Page 13 of 112 transform the lives of farmers and pastoralists.” Significant improvements in digital infrastructure, such as enhanced internet connectivity and mobile phone coverage, are critical for expanding digital solutions in agriculture. The DAR 2032 has clearly defined three main intervention areas: 1) Solution Areas and Use Cases, 2) Digital Stack (necessary digital elements to support the product development and the utilization of use cases), and 3) Enabling Environment. LAFA falls within the Solution Areas and Use Cases, under agricultural intelligence; whereas HaFAS falls under advisory and extension services. There are also several agreements in place, such as the one between the Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI) and Ethio Telecom, which is for digital extension and advisory service delivery and distribution of tablets to extension agents. The Ethiopian Food Systems Roadmap (EFSR) identifies 22 game-changing solutions, some aligned with the HaFAS initiative, such as improving the supply of inputs and technologies and creating digitalized input supply chains. Moreover, Ethiopia is in the final stages of approving a Pluralistic Agricultural Extension Strategy, in which advisory services are provided by different actors, mainly private service providers, and funded by diverse sources, in contrast to the state-led extension service, which has dominated to date. Barriers to Scale: The key barriers to scaling are: 1) inadequate farmer profile and typology information for achieving a market-segmented delivery of the advisory; 2) digital illiteracy of innovation users and extension agents to utilize available digital delivery channels; 3) financial and logistic resource limitations to scale the advisories; 4) fragmented approach to deliver bundled solutions; 5) limited reach of digital infrastructures and ICT technologies to all farmer typologies; 6) inadequate and low efficient input supply system and not easy to change the status quo to a digitalized input and extension delivery; and 7) insufficient multi stakeholder collaborated actions and platforms for scaling digital innovations. These barriers are relevant for many digital solutions for agriculture. They have been recognized with plans to address them in the Digital Agriculture Roadmap 2025-2032 to a considerable extent. Economic Benefits: In 2025, the economic benefit of the LAFA use will be determined, combining validated agronomic trial findings with actual costs of fertilizer and output prices. To date, tool use has been led by the public sector. The government’s extension network and key demand partners have actively participated in piloting and promoting the earlier advisory tools, collectively reaching hundreds of stakeholders and benefiting more than ninety thousand farmers prior to harmonization. Currently, estimates of the benefits for the end user need to be drawn from the previously developed tools. Using the LANDWise tool, the results of the benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) demonstrated that applying landscape-targeted fertilizer resulted in an optimum return on investment ($10.0, $12 and $30 net profits for teff, wheat and sorghum respectively, per $1.0 investment) while also enhancing optimized nutrient use efficiency across the three landscape positions. The hill slope generated the lowest net benefit for all crops because of its natural low yield potential compared to the foot-slope and mid-slope positions. Using the NextGen tool for wheat production resulted in additional net benefits of $475 to $665 per hectare per season compared to traditional practices or standard research-based recommendations. From previous work on the separate fertilizer advisory tools on wheat, teff and sorghum, there were notable yield increases ranging from 16% to 53% over conventional practices, along with improvements in nutrient use efficiency between 32% and 45%. Average profit gains among smallholder farmers using the fertilizer advisory tools ranged from USD 183 to USD 665 per hectare per season. Findings concerning maize will be generated during the 2025 data analysis of the validation process. Clearly, the total benefits to the economy depend on the number of cereal farmers who adopt the recommendations provided by the tool. Benefits generated vary by crop, soil type, climate, and other management practices. For example, with each 10% of wheat and teff producers in the country that adopt LAFA recommendations (with 0.25 ha allocated to wheat and 0.25 ha to teff), an additional $10 million per year from wheat production (assuming $90 profit per hectare* 450,000 * 0.25 ha) and $17.6 million per year from teff production (assuming $107 profit per hectare * 660,000 * 0.25 ha) are generated. Scaling Ambition and Timeline: The agriculture sector plays a vital role in the life and livelihood of 130 million Ethiopians, where about 16 million smallholder farming households having on average less than one hectare of land account for an estimated 95 percent of agricultural production and 85 percent of all employment. 85% of current fertilizer use is on cereals. Improving fertilizer use efficiency with the deployment of site-specific agro advisories is potentially a game-changing strategy for smallholder farmers to boost their productivity and livelihoods. Our scaling ambition by 2040 is to reach 6.85 million farmers (50% of fertilizer users for cereals), of which 2.05 million are women and 2.74 million are youth (<30 years of age) with digital fertilizer advisory services. Adoption of the advice will increase from 45% (Phase 1) to 75% by 2040. Use of the HaFAS framework and LAFA will generate a 30% increase of cereal productivity and 20% improved nutrient use efficiency, leading to an increase of national cereal production from 31.6 million to 140 million metric tons by 2040. Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Executive Summary | Page 14 of 112 CGIAR Three scaling phases are envisioned: Phase I: Consolidated innovation validation, piloting, and scaling operation phase across the geographies of validation zones of the core LAFA innovation (2025-2030). During this phase, maize, sorghum, teff, and wheat-growing farmers who are aware of the validated LAFA solutions in 129 districts of validation areas and those engaged in the piloting and pre-scaling stages for the preceding Nextgen and Landscape Fertilizer Advisory of CIAT and ICRISAT will be the primary target farmer segments. Two million farmers will be reached, with 45% using the recommendations. Phase II: Scaling phase across major cereal growing areas (2031-2035). This phase aims to reach most of the maize, sorghum, teff, and wheat producer farmers at validation zones and similar agroecology settings in the country. This phase will cover all potential scaling pathways, including public sector-led, PPP, COOPs, and private business pathways. Cumulatively, 4.6 million farmers will have been reached, with 65% using the recommendations. Phase III: Scaling phase with the realization of digitalized extension services across highland, midland and lowland mixed farming systems (2036-2040). Mature and multiple soil and agronomy advisory solutions that bundle soil, agronomy, climate, and pest management solutions and a complementary bundle of financial and insurance innovations will be ready for use. All means of scaling pathways and delivery strategies, including dissemination channels, with greater emphasis given to digital business models that have proven to be effective. This will be operationalized through private and cooperative entities and cost-sharing schemes through public sector-led pathways. By 2040, 6.85 million farmers will have been reached, of which 76% are market-oriented, and 24% have a low resource endowment. Three-quarters will be using the recommendations. The number of households targeted through the public-led pathway will be 1.49 million, 2.28 million, and 2.74 million households in the first, second, and third phases. Apart from the public pathway, the scaling delivery strategy aims to reach about 0.36 million, 1.14 million, and 1.71 million households through the PPP pathway and 0.14 million, 0.68 million, and 1.37 million households through cooperative pathways. The private-led pathway will be expected to be realized during the second and third phases to reach 0.45 million and 1.03 million households, respectively. The anticipated adoption rate for each segment of farmers will be 45%, 60%, and 75%, respectively. With a targeted 60% average adoption rate of LAFA by the end of 2040, an additional $20 to $35 million per year per crop (if each user applies fertilizer on 0.25 ha) can be earned from the scaling of the innovation. Responsible Scaling: Market segmentation is a key strategy for disaggregating the HaFAS innovations based on different client segments. This includes identifying farmers' needs, their ability to invest, and the unique challenges they face. Detailed context analysis about farmer segmentation has identified that smallholder farmers can be grouped into different segments based on production orientation, membership to local associations, risk aversion, digital literacy, land use rights, age, and gender which are prioritized based on measurable data and their relevance. It also classifies each farmer segment based on his/her probability of adopting agro-advisory services. The more literate group and wealthier farmers are likely to have high readiness and access to technology and are thus more likely to use the agro-advisory through extension agent services and other alternative services. While non-literate farmer groups have less capacity or incentive to engage and use digital services and typically must access the information through trained extension personnel. The strategy will address the specific needs of diverse farmer segments, including existing fertilizer utilizers (mostly commercially oriented farmers), subsistence farmers, women farmers, and youth– the future farmers of tomorrow. Women make up a large part of the agricultural labor force in Ethiopia but have less access to information and advice, thus requiring targeted services. Moreover, advisory services are more likely to reach women in female-headed households than married women. However, it is unclear whether female-headed households can afford inputs even when they can access them. The strategy has set specific targets by 2040 that 30% of those reached with LAFA are women and 40% are youth (<30 years of age) to tackle current inequities. There is a significant potential to reach young farmers for the scaling of the agro-advisories as they have a strong affinity for digital innovations and digital platforms as well as a preference for social networking. This will require negotiation with those currently in charge of fertilizer distribution policies, including cooperative leaders. Since the innovation involves using site-specific nutrients to avoid blanket fertilizer recommendations, it enhances the efficient and optimum use of fertilizers based on crop nutrient requirements and minimizes fertilizer overuse, with obvious benefits to water quality and soil quality (less acidification). Some may argue that any use of fertilizer does harm, but the promotion of concurrent organic and inorganic fertilization will lower any negative effects of fertilizer use. Responsible scaling also calls for co-design with major partners. While initiated by the CGIAR, the government is now in the lead in coordinating and implementing the HaFAS. The effort is in alignment with the government’s digital agriculture policies as well. CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Executive Summary| Page 15 of 112 Delivery Design, Governance, and Partner Roles: A broad network of national and international players is engaged in the HaFAS initiative, including the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Regional Agricultural Research Institutes (RARIs), the Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI), ICRISAT, CIAT, Digital Green, Farm Radio International, Precision Development (PXD), LERSHA, Stichting Wageningen University Research (SWR), Self Help Africa (SHA), and Sasakawa Africa Association (SAA). At least 40 partners have potential roles in HaFAS. Major potential investors for this initiative include the Gates Foundation (GF), the World Bank, BMZ, GIZ, IFAD, AGRA, and USAID. The strategy emphasizes collaboration among various actors, tools, and projects to support the same goal of improving soil management and advisory services and minimizing duplication. The Ethiopian government and PxD, with the financial support from the Gates Foundation (GF) will establish in 2025 the Project Management Unit for the Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR), and this will be one potential avenue to explore and finetune digital delivery strategies. A proposed governance structure is presented in the strategy, which aligns with the overarching coordination in the DAR 2032 under the Ministry of Agriculture. This scaling strategy will envision four scaling pathways. By carefully monitoring the effectiveness of each pathway, lessons learned as to which is best in the Ethiopian context are expected to emerge. These pathways are: • Existing public extension delivery systems. There is an enormous potential within the government extension service structure, which accommodates 72,000 extension workers with 14,065 farmer and agropastoral training centers. This can build on existing partnerships with NGOs like Digital Green and PXD. The program targets increasing agricultural productivity by delivering location- and time-specific advice to farmers across multiple channels, including video, SMS, chatbots, and IVR channels. To support this effort, extension workers and subject matter specialists at the district level were trained to develop localized extension videos using local languages. There is also the direct call to farmers, through ATI and LERSHA, allows farmers to call free of charge and receive information about major crop management practices, crop prices, and availability of agricultural inputs. • Public-private Partnership (PPP) Pathway. This pathway will mirror the strategies employed in public-led pathways. However, the emphasis will be on resource pooling and using the complementary capacities of government, private entities, and NGOs to minimize risks and costs through shared investments. • Cooperative-led Pathway: There are more than 92,755 cooperatives in Ethiopia with 21,043,370 members (6,743,429 female and 14,299,941 male). Cooperatives in Ethiopia are already playing an active role in the fields of finance, input and output marketing, consumer goods, agro processing, mechanization, and many other social and economic activities. The cooperatives have a strong institutional setup and can facilitate the bundling of the agro advisory services with their current roles in accessing fertilizer and improved seed services for their members. This pathway will focus on cooperative members and market-oriented farmers. • Private Business (Market-led) Pathway. To date, market entry of private businesses into the extension service arena has been challenging due to regulatory barriers (which are being addressed). With a growing digital market, private businesses will have ample potential to disseminate digital solutions to willing farmers who invest or pay for the services individually or through their cooperatives in the future. Various delivery channels and databases will be tested during phase 1, with more refined use in subsequent phases, including mobile applications, artificial intelligence tools, SMS phone messaging, interactive voice response systems (IVS), digital kiosks, web-based platforms, development agent (DA) networks, farmer training centers, development groups, video-based extension services, farmer and DA registries, and geolocation and land administration data. The Cost Structure: A dynamic digital innovation generation and regular updating and refining process, especially when it requires dynamic data integration, like in the case of site-specific digitally enabled bundles of agro-advisory services, run through a series of costs. There are also costs associated with establishing, operating, and maintaining the distinct delivery channels. As LAFA is still in the process of being validated and is going to be integrated into multiple delivery channels, estimating the cost to achieve scale will need to be done once the best delivery mechanisms are established. These costs will include the institutional costs to deliver, the costs of trials for continued advisory development, the costs for validation of advisory tools (as novel approaches/technologies are likely to continue to emerge), the costs for capacity development for delivery, the costs for servers, managing data and analytical modeling works, and the environmental costs. Annual field experiments by EIAR and regional agriculture research centers (RARIs) are requisite for the advisory system to continue to be upgraded and improved with additional field research data from new parts of the countries and additional crops. Based on the 2024 LAFA experience, a minimum of 1,500 trial sites will be needed, with an estimated $1200 per farmer site required to cover all costs of trial management, including soil and plant analysis. In addition, validation trials on farmers’ fields will cost $125 per farmer site. Thus, the ongoing research effort would be around $2 million USD annually. At a country level, at least 22,000 farmers would need to be generating $90 additional profit each from using the fertilizer advisory to cover these two essential components for sustaining and expanding the quality of the advisory system. Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Executive Summary | Page 16 of 112 CGIAR Financial Sustainability: The strategy considers a phased, iterative scaling process for the site-specific, digitally enabled agro-advisory system. In phase one, public and development support will be critical drivers of the implementation and application of the innovation as extension personnel are trained on how to use the digital tools, and farmers are exposed to the economic benefits from using the site-specific recommendations. The registering of farmers and collection of their profile data will need to be supported. Robust and sustainable public- private partnerships (PPPs) shall be identified, developed, and nurtured through the first and the second phases. During the second half of the second phase and the third phase, market-based models will be piloted and capacitated to lead the delivery of the innovation. The most likely sustainable scenario is to bundle the costs of disseminating and updating advisory services into the purchase price of seeds and fertilizers. Given that fertilizers are delivered through cooperatives, a private sector enterprise delivering services to these cooperatives could charge a fee per cooperative or per member. Estimates of PPP or market-led scenarios to achieve partial or full financial sustainability are provided in the strategy. Clearly, monitoring the value of the sum of the benefit streams for the public and private for a given phase to see if it outweighs the costs of technology updating, coordination, and delivery will be essential. Environmental Sustainability: Site-specific fertilizer recommendations provided through LAFA will tailor fertilizer application based on localized soil characteristics and climate data, optimizing nutrient use. This precision application reduces the excess application of nitrogen-based fertilizers, a major source of nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, which is approximately 298 times more potent as a greenhouse gas (GHG) than CO₂. One greenhouse gas (GHG) emission estimation in Ethiopian wheat production found that the use of specific fertilizer recommendations over blanket ones, led to an average increase of 24% in wheat production and resulted in a lower emission intensity per ton of wheat produced. Experts note that integrating fertilizer use with liming and organic inputs indirectly mitigates emissions by improving soil carbon sequestration potential, as healthy soils can retain organic carbon more effectively, and offsetting emissions using liming by improving nutrient availability to crops. Recommended practices for liming are being integrated into LAFA; and ideally some organic fertilization recommendations would be integrated into it. Sustainable Scaling: Sustainable scaling demands a shift from isolated and sectoral innovation projects to systemic, inclusive, and adaptive strategies. Key enablers include participatory governance, cross-sector partnerships, iterative learning, and long-term investment. The financial viability and sustainability of digital agronomic advisory services in Ethiopia are underpinned by strategic partnerships, scalable technology frameworks, and targeted investments. Communication and Advocacy: A robust communication and advocacy strategy must popularize the benefits of site-specific digitally enabled agro-advisories and shift from blanket recommendations for the public, policymakers, the extension ecosystem, development partners, and donors. Targeted efforts to raise awareness among extension personnel, cooperatives, and farmers are also needed. Partnerships must be built for effective dissemination of the tools and to attract resources for scaling the HaFAS. The strategy document lists for each target audience the key messages required, the preferred communication channels, and advocacy strategies to employ. During the first scaling phase, the effectiveness of different delivery channels in getting significant use of LAFA recommendations should be assessed, and the key messages, communication, and delivery channel recommendations subsequently refined. Key Outcomes: The scaling of the LAFA, and broader HaFAS is a transformative step toward achieving Ethiopia’s vision of agricultural self-sufficiency and economic resilience and is in full alignment with the government’s Digital Agriculture Roadmap 2032. By providing farmers with tailored, data-driven agro-advisories, the initiative empowers them to boost productivity, increase profitability, and adopt more sustainable practices. The aim is to generate a 30% increase in cereal productivity and 20% improved nutrient use efficiency by 2040. It is estimated that with 10% of wheat and teff producers using the site-specific digitally enabled agro-advisory, the country can gain an additional $10 million per year from wheat production and $17.6 million per year from teff production. The goal by 2040 is to reach at least 50% of Ethiopia’s major cereal producers, with 75% adopting recommended practices in HaFAS. This initiative also supports the green economic policy by prioritizing climate- smart agricultural production practices and reducing emissions. A detailed monitoring, evaluation, learning, and impact evaluation (MELIA) plan is presented, with key performance indicators for monitoring progress defined. Key priority research areas for further development are listed, along with their justification. CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 17 of 112 Section 1. Problem Statement and Existing Demand 1.1 Background Ethiopia, an industrializing yet still agrarian-dominated society, has over 70% of its population engaged in farming (Stellmacher and Kelboro, 2019; CSA, 2020; World Bank, 2022). The country faces considerable challenges in enhancing crop productivity and sustaining soil health (Zerssa et al., 2021). Significant yield gaps, particularly in cereals, indicate that actual yields are often less than a third of their potential (Tesfaye, 2016; Silva et al., 2021; Debebe et al., 2022). For instance, the national average yields for maize (4 t/ha) and wheat (3.1 t/ha) are 19.7% and 26.8% lower, respectively, than compared to on-station research findings (Belachew et al., 2022; CSA, 2023). Key constraints to achieving potential yields include poor soil fertility, erratic and unpredictable rainfall patterns, reliance on traditional and outdated farming practices, and low adoption of modern agro-inputs such as improved crop varieties and fertilizers (Bekabil, 2014). In addition, generalized blanket fertilizer recommendations often fail to account for local soil and topographic variability and environmental conditions, leading to inefficient or excessive nutrient application that adversely affects crop performance and profitability (Getaneh et al., 2024). In addition to the environmental constraints, there are barriers related to equitable access to fertilizer in different locations away from the main transportation routes and warehouses and those affected by drought. Although the government subsidizes fertilizer, subsistence farmers, specifically drought-affected communities, women, and youth who rely on rented land have low purchasing capacity to access fertilizer in cash. Fertilizer use in Ethiopia has been a key strategy to enhance crop productivity, particularly for staple crops such as teff, wheat, and maize. From 2004/05 to 2020/21, there was a significant increase in the use of inorganic fertilizers such as urea and di- ammonium phosphate (DAP)/nitrogen-phosphorus-sulfur (NPS) by smallholder farmers (Abebe et al., 2022). Fertilizer is one of Ethiopia’s most critical imported inputs, with the country purchasing 1.35 million metric tons in 2023 at a total cost of approximately 1.1 billion USD (IFDC, 2024; Trading Economics, 2025)1. The country purchased 1.99 million metric tons in 2024. The government approved 1.3 billion USD to purchase 2.5 million metric tons in 20252. Recognizing the importance of fertilizer use efficiency, the use of efficient fertilizer application techniques and advanced advisory tools plays a crucial role in optimizing its effectiveness. Fertilizer importation and distribution is a public-sector led intervention in Ethiopia, with distribution mainly occurring through cooperatives. With a focus on increasing total output of key cereals, fertilizer is mainly purchased by market-oriented farmers, unless included in a specific project. To date, the commercial sector has been dominated by mature men. The government recognizes that women have less access to agricultural services and inputs. For instance, women’s access to advisories is 41% lower than men’s (CSA 2023). Moreover, youth (15–29 years) face land tenure constraints, with 40% relying on rented land. Clearly, beginning in 2020, global fertilizer markets experienced a significant price surge due to higher natural gas prices as well as supply chain and trade disruptions triggered by COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war. Assefa et al. (2025) found that fertilizer adoption by wheat, teff and maize farmers and yields were increasing until this crisis period, but this trend has now ceased. Affordability of fertilizer is a major constraint, excluding in particular poorer farmers. Given the high cost of inorganic fertilizer, its effective use is paramount. Several factors influence the limited effectiveness of fertilizer use in Ethiopia, particularly its inappropriate application rates, inefficient fertilization practices, and lack of site-specific recommendations. For example, farmers typically apply 37-40 kg/ha of inorganic fertilizers (Spielman et al., 2013), which is far below the recommended rates, limiting yield potential. Furthermore, the widespread use of “blanket” fertilizer recommendations that overlook variations in soil type, fertility, topography, and crop type in different agro- ecological zones often leads to nutrient imbalance or leaching and soil degradation without achieving anticipated yield improvements (Erkossa et al., 2022). Ethiopian agricultural research has long recognized the potential of site-specific recommendations to address yield gaps. Initiatives such as the Ethiopian Soil Information System (EthioSIS), established in 2012 by the Ethiopian government's Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA), have laid the groundwork for digital soil mapping of nutrient levels nationwide, facilitating targeted fertilizer use (EthioSIS, 2014). However, previous efforts to segment recommendations based on broad agroecological zones have fallen short of addressing micro- level variations in soil and landscape conditions, resulting in mismatches between crop nutrient needs and the actual fertilizer application (Abera et al., 2022). For site-specific recommendations to be effective, a data-driven approach must be integrated into usable tools for farmers and their advisors. Yet, in Ethiopia, data remains fragmented and often inaccessible, limiting the potential for data-driven decision-making (Abera et al., 2022). To address this, in 2018, a group of volunteer researchers formed the Coalition of the Willing (CoW), an informal collective aimed at consolidating decades of scattered agricultural data into a national soil and agronomy database. The comprehensive agronomic and environmental database is now accessible through the centralized Ag-Datahub (https://datahub.et), providing public access to valuable data. With advancements in data-mining techniques, the platform enables complex multivariate analysis and machine learning tools, offering significant 1 Ethiopia Imports of Fertilizers - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1995-2023 Historical 2 https://www.fanamc.com/english/govt-approves-us1-3-for-25m-quintals-of-soil-fertilizer-procurement/ https://datahub/ https://tradingeconomics.com/ethiopia/imports/fertilizers Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 18 of 112 CGIAR potential for optimizing fertilizer use through tailored, site-specific fertilizer recommendations with integrated decision support tools (Tamene et al., 2021; Abera et al., 2022; Liben et al., 2024). Since the launch of the One CGIAR Excellence in Agronomy (EiA) initiative in 2020, ICRISAT and the Alliance of Bioversity International & CIAT in collaboration with EIAR and other key partners, have developed and piloted their own advanced decision support tools (DSTs): the NextGen Fertilizer Advisory Tool of CIAT and the Landscape-Based Fertilizer Recommendation DST (LANDWise) of ICRISAT. The advisories have been developed and validated together with both national and international partners and have been tested extensively across diverse Ethiopian conditions. The NextGen DST provides season-specific recommendations tailored to soil and climate variations (Liben et al., 2022; Tamene et al., 2024b), while the Landscape-Based Fertilizer DST offers landscape-tailored fertilizer recommendations based on landscape segments—such as upslope, mid-slope, and foot-slope—addressing nutrient variability across different positions in the landscape (Abera et al., 2022; Ebrahim et al., 2023; Desta et al., 2023a). These innovative solutions represent major advancements in Ethiopia’s agronomic advisory capabilities. The demonstrated effectiveness of these robust recommendations based on those DSTs in enhancing crop yields, nutrient use efficiency, and economic returns for four cereal crops (wheat, teff, sorghum, and maize) has generated significant interest among Ethiopian farmers, agricultural stakeholders, and the government. Validation trials have shown a notable yield increase ranging from 16% to 53% over conventional practices, along with improvements in nutrient use efficiency between 32% and 45% (Desta et al., 2023; Liben et al., 2024). These gains not only offer an increase in yield and resource efficiency but also contribute to sustainability by reducing excessive nutrient application and minimizing environmental impact. The results highlight the potential of these DSTs to address the persistent yield gaps and boost the profitability of smallholder crop production, with average profit gains of USD 183 to 412 per hectare per season (Desta et al., 2023; Liben et al., 2024). The government’s extension network and key demand partners have actively participated in piloting and promoting these DSTs, collectively reaching hundreds of stakeholders and benefiting more than twenty thousand farmers (Tamene et al., 2024b). This widespread, demand-driven adoption reflects the tools' value in enhancing productivity and aligns with Ethiopia's broader agricultural transformation goals (MoA, 2020). To enhance integration, reduce duplication of efforts, and avoid confusion by engaging decision-makers with similar advisories, national partners asked for the harmonization of agro-advisory systems available in the country. The relatively advanced and well-validated tools were those mentioned above, and a concerted effort has been made to harmonize them, leading to an integrated site-specific and tailored DST. The harmonization efforts began with the development of a framework that integrates multiple DSTs into a cohesive system, which was adopted in September 2023. In this framework, the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and the National Agricultural Research System (NARS) play a central coordination role. This has led in 2024 to the development of a single harmonized site-specific (localized) agronomy and fertilizer advisory (LAFA) as part of a broader, more comprehensive, harmonized digital agro-advisory system (HaFAS) aimed at boosting agricultural productivity and profitability in Ethiopia (Tamene et al., 2024a). The primary goal of the LAFA system is to bridge the productivity gaps for key cereal crops in Ethiopian agriculture by expanding the scope and use of a harmonized digital agro-advisory service (HaFAS) that provides site- and context-specific, user-driven, and climate-smart recommendations with bundled agro-advice. Given the significant yield gap, low nutrient use efficiency, and profitability in Ethiopia, where average yields of major staple crops such as maize, wheat, teff, and sorghum are far below their potential due to various factors, the HaFAS, represents a transformative approach for more effective, seasonally adapted, and tailored nutrient management and agronomic practices in the face of variable and changing climate scenarios. LAFA integrates different solutions to promote improved production and productivity of these four key cereal crops for Ethiopia: maize, teff, wheat, and sorghum. Currently, average wheat yields achieve only 20-30% of their potential, while maize and sorghum reach just 15-25% and 25-30%, respectively (Tesfaye 2016; Mann et al., 2017; Silva et al., 2021; Belachew et al., 2022). In addition to the contextualized advisory system, LAFA also embraces its use in multiple tailored dissemination channels to deliver agriculture extension services. To address diverse contexts in a country the size of Ethiopia, the government sees using digital delivery channels as essential for building a more agile, inclusive, pluralistic extension system (Tamene and Ali, 2022). In 2022, the Digital Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services Roadmap 2030 was launched, with the ultimate goal of providing high-quality, customized, and cost-efficient data and advisory information to Ethiopian farmers. After a successful first phase, on 4 February 2025, the Digital Agriculture Roadmap 2025-2032 was launched, which will make significant investments in both the infrastructure and the software to improve use of digital advisory and marketing systems. Its vision is to have “inclusive, affordable, sustainable, and interoperable digital solutions, supported by a coordinated and aligned ecosystem, which transform the lives of farmers and pastoralists.” In both roadmaps, providing advice on fertilizer recommendations is a prioritized use case. Clearly, LAFA can play a major role in the digital agriculture space. Scaling out LAFA advisory services should assist in narrowing the existing yield gaps, enhancing nutrient use efficiency, and improving soil fertility, which in turn optimizes resource allocation and broadly supports Ethiopia’s agriculture production goals. CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 19 of 112 1.2 Relevance in the Country Context Maize, teff, wheat, and sorghum are the dominant cereals produced by smallholders in the four major cereal- producing regions of Ethiopia (Amhara, Oromia, SNNPR, and Tigray), with maize showing the largest increase in production of 315% between 2003/2004 and 2020/2021 in the meher (main rainy) season (Ahmed and Mekuriaw, 2023) (Figure 1.2). Concurrently, the use of extension packages for cereals by smallholders has increased from 23.9% in 2004 to 62.7% in 2021, indicative of the increasing use of recommended agricultural practices (Ahmed and Mekuriaw, 2023). Ethiopia is at a pivotal moment for paving a pathway for digital agriculture as part of its national strategy to enhance agricultural productivity and economic growth (MinT, 2020). Leveraging LAFA to bridge the yield gap through optimized fertilizer recommendations and soil health management supports the government’s efforts to tackle challenges in cereal production, and stakeholder consultations note significant government demand for this tool. As previously noted, the Ethiopian government has shown interest in supporting digital support services. First, the Digital Ethiopia 2025 is set to implement the digitization strategy launched by Ethiopia in 20203. The strategy aims to bring technology to the people of Ethiopia and its industries, with a focus on e-commerce and the ability to digitize services in traditionally non-digital industries such as agriculture and manufacturing. The strategy includes five priorities: implementation of a digital ID, digital payments, e-governance, e-commerce, and cybersecurity. Under the DAEAS Figure 1.2. Trends in major cereal crop production on smallholder farms (meher season) from 2003/04-2020/21 (CSA data). Source: Ahmed and Mekuriaw (2023). Roadmap, the HaFAS aligns with Pillar 1, the Solutions Pipeline, which champions the development of digital innovations for priority farmer use cases. The use of the HaFAS at scale will require the government to make significant advancements in digital infrastructure and an enabling environment, which is a major component of the Digital Agriculture Roadmap 2025-2032 recently launched in February 2025. 1.3 Current Demand in Broader Context and Relevant Competition With Ethiopia’s large population (134.5 million estimated for 2025)4, its cereal sector has attracted substantial investments aimed at boosting productivity and sustainability. Key investors include international organizations, governmental bodies, and private sector entities. The World Bank, USAID, BMZ-GIZ, AGRA, and the Gates Foundation have funded projects focusing on agricultural technology and infrastructure. The Ethiopian government, through the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), significantly invests in fertilizer subsidies, research, and extension services. Emerging interest from impact investors and venture capital firms indicates a growing recognition of the potential for technology-driven agriculture in Ethiopia. These investments collectively aim to enhance food security, improve farmer livelihoods, and drive economic growth. 3 The World Bank has approved a 200 million USD concession loan agreement for its implementation. 4 https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ethiopia-population/ https://borgenproject.org/digital-ethiopia-2025/ https://borgenproject.org/digital-ethiopia-2025/ https://borgenproject.org/digital-ethiopia-2025/ https://borgenproject.org/digital-ethiopia-2025/ https://borgenproject.org/digital-ethiopia-2025/ https://borgenproject.org/digital-ethiopia-2025/ Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 20 of 112 CGIAR The government of Ethiopia is deeply committed to the use of inorganic fertilizer to increase cereal productivity, with average annual imports of around 1.6 million MT from 2020-2023 (Figure 1.3.1) Figure 1.3.1. Africa Fertilizer: Fertilizer Statistics Overview Ethiopia: 2010-2023 (Source: IFDC (2024)) The Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Institute (ATI) formerly Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) reports that the Ethiopian Agricultural Business Corporation (EABC) imports 90% of the fertilizers used, with distribution to farmers done through cooperatives (IFDC, 2024). The remaining fertilizers are imported by private companies engaged in horticulture production for export. The Nitrogen-Phosphorus (NP) compounds contain either Boron, Sulphur, or Zinc (IFDC, 2024). The private sector company OCP has been engaged to operationalize two of the five defunct fertilizer blending plants (MoA, 2023). Note that soil analysis from the EthioSIS initiative has led to a shift from DAP to NP compound fertilizers over the past two decades. However, the recent countrywide fertilizer source validation research reaffirmed using DAP and urea fertilizers. With recent recognition that soil acidity is seriously affecting 43% of the cultivated lands in the Northern highlands, calcium carbonate and calcium oxide use as soil amendments is expected to increase (IFDC, 2024). Demand estimates for fertilizer are highly variable (IFDC, 2024). In the post-COVID period, soaring prices and limited availability led to decreasing demand by smallholders, either abandoning its use, applying below recommended rates, or shifting to crops requiring less fertilizer (World Bank, 2023). Moreover, inadequate demand assessment can lead to a mismatch between demand and supply at all levels, with some cooperatives reporting significant levels of unused fertilizer (Alemu and Koomen, 2023). Under such conditions, appropriate recommendations on inorganic fertilizer use should enhance, over time, better estimates of area-specific demand. The strategic timing for scaling the HaFAS in Ethiopia is particularly advantageous due to several favorable conditions. Ethiopia has made notable progress in digital agriculture roadmap development, bolstered by government policies that foster innovation and technological adoption and encourage private sector participation. Significant improvements in digital infrastructure, such as enhanced internet connectivity and mobile phone coverage, are critical for expanding digital solutions in agriculture. The Digital Agriculture Roadmap has clearly defined three main intervention areas: 1) Solution Areas and Use Cases, 2) Digital Stack (necessary digital elements to support the product development and the utilization of use cases), and 3) Enabling Environment (Figure 1.3.2). LAFA falls within the Solution Areas and Use Cases, under agricultural intelligence; whereas HaFAS falls under advisory and extension services. The HaFAS framework is essential to scan similar developments to continue harmonizing and bundling agro- advisory solutions and avoid duplication of efforts. These include digital agronomy tools being developed and implemented in Ethiopia and beyond. Within Ethiopia, there is: 1) the Optimizing Fertilizer Recommendations for Africa (OFRA) tool that offers agro-ecological zone-based recommendations, which is more targeted than blanket applications but still falls short of fully capturing micro-level soil and landscape variability (Kaizzi et al., 2017); and CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 21 of 112 2) the Ethiopian Soil Information System (EthioSIS), which has created maps of fertilizer types based on soil nutrient levels nationwide. Although EthioSIS has aimed to advance site-specific fertilizer recommendations, it does not provide site-specific fertilizer recommendations that fully integrate factors such as climate, topography, and nutrient interactions that affect crop responses (Abera et al., 2022). Moving forward, the question will be how existing and new players in the Ethiopian Digital space are coordinated so that duplication of prior efforts is minimized, delivery channels continue to improve, and advisory reaches more farmers in new areas. The integrated harmonized digital platform, the HaFAS, provides the mechanism for doing so. For example, the government of Ethiopia recently signed an agreement with Cropin, an Indian company that runs a cloud-based AI platform for food and agriculture and will be seeking to profile 100,000 Ethiopian farmers over the next two years. The efforts on the HaFAS framework are to provide a collaborative and nationally coordinated digital platform for the ongoing agro advisory initiatives and upcoming ones to align and contribute to the Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR) 2032. Collaborating with local stakeholders, including smallholder farmers, ensures that the recommendations are driven by local requirements and needs, practical, and signed with real-world needs. By successfully implementing the bundled agro-advisories through the multi-partnership of government, private, non-government, civil societies, and farmers, Ethiopia has the potential to serve as a model for building a big data ecosystem and scaling the agro-advisories, offering lessons applicable to other African countries facing similar agricultural challenges. Figure 1.3.2. Digital Agriculture Roadmap (DAR) Digital Agriculture Ecosystem Assessment Framework In a broader context, many countries are investing in digital agriculture tools. For example, in Rwanda, a digital fertilizer recommendation tool for six crops (cassava, potato, rice, wheat, maize, beans) was developed so that it could be successfully integrated into an existing platform – the country’s Smart Nkunganire System (SNS), which provides Rwandan farmers access to critical subsidized farm inputs and currently has 1.5 million registered users. In 2025, the advisory component is expected to reach 300,000 of the registered users5. With the growing interest and sophistication of the digital agriculture environment, sharing information between as well as within countries will accelerate the learning process. References Abebe, G., Tamtam, R., Abebe, A., Abtemariam, A., Shigut, G., Dejen, A., & Haile, G. 2022. Growing use and impacts of chemical fertilizers and assessing alternative organic fertilizer sources in Ethiopia. Applied and Environmental Soil Science, 2022(1), 4738416. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4738416 5 https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/news/a-smart-and-smartly-delivered-advisory-service-for-rwandas-small-scale-farmers/ https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4738416 https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4738416 Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 22 of 112 CGIAR Abera W, Tamene L, Tesfaye K, Jiménez D, Dorado H, Erkossa T, Kihara J, Ahmed JS, Amede T, Ramirez- Villegas J: A data-mining approach for developing site-specific fertilizer response functions across the wheat- growing environments in Ethiopia. 2022. Experimental Agriculture, 58:1-16. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479722000047 Ahmed M. and Mekuriaw T. (2023). Trends in Major Cereal Crop Production and Utilization of Extension Packages by Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia. International Journal of Agriculture Innovations and Research Volume 12, Issue 2, PP 61 to 72. Alemu, D., & Koomen, I. 2023. Resilient Agriculture for Inclusive and Sustainable Ethiopian food systems-RAISE- FS: resilient, inclusive and sustainable food systems in Ethiopia: Annual report 2021/22 (No. WCDI-23-257). Wageningen Centre for Development Innovation. Bekabil, UT. 2014. Review of challenges and prospects of agricultural production and productivity in Ethiopia. Journal of Natural Sciences Research, 4(18), 70-77. Belachew KY, Maina NH, Dersseh WM, Zeleke B, Stoddard FL. 2022. Yield Gaps of Major Cereal and Grain Legume Crops in Ethiopia: A Review. Agronomy, 12(10):2528. Central Statistical Agency (CSA). 2020. Analytical Report on the 2019 National Labour Force Survey. Statistical Bulletin. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Central Statistical Agency. Central Statistical Agency (CSA). 2023. Agricultural Sample Survey 2021/2022 (2014 E.C.): Report on Area and Production of Major Crops. Statistical Bulletin 660. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Debebe, S., Gebre, E. and Kuma, T. 2022. Yield gaps and technical inefficiency factors for major cereal crops in Ethiopia: Panel Stochastic Frontier Approach. Ethiopian Journal of Economics, 31(1), 81-100. Desta, G., Legesse, G., Agegnehu, G., Tigabie, A., Nagaraji, S., Gashaw, T., ... & Harawa, R. 2023a. Landscape- based nutrient application in wheat and teff mixed farming systems of Ethiopia: Farmer and extension agent demand-driven approach. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 7, 1241850. Desta, T., Gezahegn, M., Zemede, A., & Tesma, E. 2023b. Fertilizer Use Trends for Major Ethiopian Crops by Smallholder Farmers. Ethiopian Journal of Crop Science, 1 (1) EthioSIS. 2014. Ethiopian Soil Information System. Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Getaneh, S., Molla, E., & Abera, D. 2024. Effects of integrated fertilizer application on soil properties and yield of maize (Zea mays L.) on Nitisols in Pawe District, Northwestern Ethiopia. Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, 9(1), 13-32. International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC). 2023. Fertilizer Statistics Overview: Ethiopia 2010–2022. Retrieved from https://hub.ifdc.org/bitstreams/f8c2398b-bdf6-4f48-9d21-dbe9e7aa5d8e/ Kaizzi, KC., Mohammed, MB. and Nouri, M. 2017. Fertilizer use optimization: principles and approach. In Wortmann C.S. and Sones K. (eds), Fertilizer Use Optimization in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nairobi: CABI, pp. 9–19. Liben, F., Ebrahim, M., Abera, W., Erkossa, T., Bogale, B., Kebede, F., Ayele, M., Alitaseb, T., Haji, A., Tsegu, A., Girmaw, M., Ayele, K., Chernet, M., & Tamene, L. 2022. Co-developing and co-validating location-specific fertilizer and agroclimatic advisory service for wheat in Ethiopia: The Digital Green Use Case. Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/126973 Mann, M. L., & Warner, J. M. 2017. Ethiopian wheat yield and yield gap estimation: A spatially explicit small area integrated data approach. Field Crops Research, 201, 60-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.10.014 Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). 2020. Ethiopia's Agricultural Extension Strategy. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). 2023. Report on fertilizer blending plant operationalization. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Ministry of Innovation and Technology (MinT). 2020. Digital Ethiopia 2025: A strategy for Ethiopia’s digitalization. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Silva, JV., Reidsma, P., Baudron, F., Jaleta, M., Tesfaye, K. and van Ittersum, MK. 2021. Wheat yield gaps across smallholder farming systems in Ethiopia. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 41(1), 12. Spielman D.J., Alemu D. and Mekonnen D.K. 2013. Seed, fertilizer, and agricultural extension in Ethiopia. In Dorosh P. and Rashid S. (eds.), Food and Agriculture in Ethiopia: Progress and Policy Challenges. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, pp. 84–122. Stellmacher, T., Kelboro, G. Family Farms, Agricultural Productivity, and the Terrain of Food (In)Security in Ethiopia. 2019. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4981. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479722000047 https://hub.ifdc.org/bitstreams/f8c2398b-bdf6-4f48-9d21-dbe9e7aa5d8e/download https://hub.ifdc.org/bitstreams/f8c2398b-bdf6-4f48-9d21-dbe9e7aa5d8e/ https://hdl.handle.net/10568/126973 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.10.014 CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 23 of 112 Tamene L., Erkossa, T., Tafesse, T., Abera, W., & Schultz, S. 2021. Coalition of the Willing: Powering data-driven solutions for Ethiopian agriculture. CIAT Publication No. 518. Addis Ababa (Ethiopia): International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/118145 Tamene, L., Mesfin, T., Liben, F., Worku, W., Ebrahim, M., Tilaye, A., Tesfu, D., Getachew, G., Hawinet, B., & Kebede, A. 2024a. NextGen agro advisory boosts Ethiopian wheat yields by 38%. Bioversity International; CIAT. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141792 Tamene, L.; Mesfin, T., Tibebe, D.; Abera, W.; Desta, g.; Liben, F.; Agegnehu, G.; Tigabie, A.; Legesse, G.; Chernet, M.; Ebrahim, M.; Tilaye, A.; Tesfu, D.; Desalegne, T.; Yitafferu, B.; Gashaw, G.; Bekele, H.; Ayele, K.; Endrias, A. 2024b. Closing yield gaps in Ethiopia: Leveraging data-driven approaches to optimize fertilizer use and soil health. Periodic Table of Food Initiative Technical Report. 17 p. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/159983 Tesfaye, K. 2016. Application of the GYGA approach to Ethiopia. Tech. rep, Global Yield Gap Atlas, http://www.yieldgap.org/ethiopia Trading Economics. 2025. Ethiopia imports of fertilizers. Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/ethiopia/imports/fertilizers World Bank. 2022. Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) - Ethiopia. Retrieved January 31, 2025, from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=ET&utm_source=chatgpt.com World Bank. 2023. Commodity Markets Outlook — April 2023. World Bank Group. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/cbc62a071ce33be3d2a503dfdd26af5c-0350012023/CMO-April-2023 Zeleke, G., Agegnehu, G., Abera, D., Rashid, S., 2010. Fertilizer and Soil Fertility Potential in Ethiopia: Constraints and Opportunities for Enhancing the System. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA. Zerssa, G., Feyssa, D., Kim, D.G. and Eichler-Löbermann, B. 2021. Challenges of smallholder farming in Ethiopia and opportunities by adopting climate-smart agriculture. Agriculture, 11(3), 192. Section 2. The Core Innovation(s) and Solution Statement 2.1 History of Innovation Development In Ethiopia, farming is marked by considerable spatial and temporal variations in key production factors, including climate, soil type, topography, and crop management. These variations create significant disparities in potential crop yield, fertilizer use efficiency, and economic returns on fertilizer investments. Yield gaps between actual and potential yields, both at farm and national levels, are among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa due to factors such as land degradation, climate variability, and low or improper input application– highlighting a critical opportunity to increase crop productivity. To tackle these yield gaps and transform agriculture to enhance food security, various efforts have been made over the past one and a half decades. These efforts include site-specific and context-based fertilizer recommendations, integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), soil and land management practices (SWC), and climate advisory services, all aimed at closing yield gaps and promoting sustainable agriculture (Tamene, et al, 2017). Suboptimal fertilizer application is widely recognized as a key factor contributing to yields that remain low compared to yield potentials. Traditionally, blanket fertilizer recommendations, prescribing uniform fertilizer amounts regardless of crop type or environmental conditions, have been the standard practice. However, recent efforts (Kaizzi et al., 2017; Abera et al., 2022; Amede et al., 2022) aim to improve these recommendations. Since the launch of the Ethiopian Soil Information System (EthioSIS) initiative in 2012, NARS has conducted extensive on-farm trials to assess crop response to fertilizer and validate EthioSIS soil fertility maps. Later, national partners, in collaboration with CG centers, reviewed legacy crop response to fertilizer and identified research gaps, with a particular focus on location-specific nutrient management (Tamene, et al., 2017). In the quest to develop site- and context-specific fertilizer recommendations, collaborative efforts were undertaken to review and document existing information on crop responses to organic and inorganic fertilizer applications, facilitating the design of fertilizer recommendation tools. The review studies provided evidence on how soil fertility status varied across cropping systems, land uses, landscape positions, and rainfall gradients in response to different types and combinations of organic and inorganic fertilizers. These findings contributed to the development of guidelines for innovative and targeted fertilizer recommendations suited to rapidly transitioning landscapes (Tamene, et al 2017; Amede, et al, 2020; Desta et al, 2021). Erkossa et al. (2022) mapped the historical trajectory of soil fertility research in Ethiopia, charting its progression from the early efforts in the 1950’s to contemporary advances in data-driven agronomic solutions (Figure 2.1). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/118145 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141792 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/159983 http://www.yieldgap.org/ethiopia https://tradingeconomics.com/ethiopia/imports/fertilizers https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=ET&utm_source=chatgpt.com https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/cbc62a071ce33be3d2a503dfdd26af5c-0350012023/CMO-April-2023 Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 24 of 112 CGIAR The generation of EthioSIS soil information data spurred government agencies, research institutions, and donors to prioritize soil health and sustainable fertilizer management practices as a top agenda item. In response, the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and the Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA) jointly developed the Soil Health and Fertility Strategy and Roadmap between 2011 and 2012. This framework aimed to address critical soil fertility challenges and transform the agriculture sector by integrating soil health into national policies and on-the-ground farming practices. The 2015 International Year of Soil campaign encouraged the launch of soil health and site- specific nutrient management research and development projects, supported by various donors, including Africa RISING, GIZ-ISFM, CGIAR (Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research) WLE (Water, Land, and Ecosystems), AICCRA (Accelerating Impact of CGIAR Climate Research in Africa), GeoNutrition, IFDC-Soil Consortium, CGIAR EiA (Excellence in Agronomy) initiative, and AGRA-Digitalization of fertilizer extension. These projects facilitated the generation of diverse datasets and technological advancements, contributing to optimal fertilizer recommendations across different biophysical and socioeconomic contexts. Through the Africa RISING and GIZ-ISFM projects, demand grew for Site-Specific Nutrient Management decision guides that optimize fertilizer application based on landscape positions, advancing the approach into a structured decision-making framework. Since 2020, building on previous experiences, the Fertilizer Ethiopia and Digital Green Use Cases under the EIA initiative of One CGIAR have employed a co-design approach to develop agronomy turnkey digital solutions, specifically providing fertilizer rate recommendations based on legacy crop response data. The innovation’s development followed a seven-step process ranging from demand analysis and co-design to data acquisition, analytics, prototype development, validation, piloting, and scaling readiness (EiA, 2021). Each use case advanced through EIA’s seven stage gate system to ensure the technical validity of the prototypes. Figure 2.1. Key timeline and efforts in soil fertility research and development in Ethiopia (Erkossa et al., 2022) 2.2 Innovations: Core Innovation and Complementary Recommendations The HaFAS framework accommodates a package of innovations, including advisory tools that provide site-specific fertilizer recommendations, soil and agronomy recommendations, and complementary soil, agronomy, land, and water management practices applied at context and technology-specific recommendation domains. These packages of innovations are bundled into an integrated digital and analog tool channeled to end users using different delivery mechanisms. • Core Innovation Since late 2022, in response to national demands for a unified advisory tool and donor interest in coordinated, impactful digital agronomy and fertilizer advisories, discussions among key stakeholders led to an agreement to develop a harmonized digital advisory tool for site specific fertilizer and agronomy recommendations. Building on previous efforts, a collaborative modular harmonization framework was established by national and international actors, consolidating mature decision support tools, including the EiA NextGen agro-advisory tool of CIAT and the landscape-based fertilizer advisory system of ICRISAT (Liben et al., 2022; Desta & CGIAR Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 25 of 112 Nagaraji, 2022). This harmonization initiative involves numerous partners, mainly the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Regional Agricultural Research institutes (RARIs), and CGIAR centers, with MoA and EIAR chairing the coordination. The national research system as a whole and EIAR now host the harmonized agro-advisory decision support tool (HaFAS) and play a central role in technical coordination and validation. Following the official launch of the HaFAS coordination platform in September 2023, attended by government officials, donors, national agricultural research systems (NARS), and CGIAR partners, CGIAR and NARS experts collaborated to develop a harmonized agro advisory system. Since its launch, the HaFAS has garnered interest from scaling partners, extension agents, farmers, and donors, all working toward improved soil health and fertilizer efficiency. Supported by major donors like BMGF, USAID, and GIZ, the tool facilitates streamlined data aggregation and curation, leverages advanced data analytics, and enables more efficient use of agronomic resources. This demand-driven HaFAS represents a significant advancement in Ethiopia’s agricultural productivity efforts. The two EiA use cases (Digital Green and Fertilizer Ethiopia) that have contributed to the harmonized agro- advisory components include: 1) the NextGen Fertilizer Advisory System is a system that integrates machine learning, the QUEFTS model, extensive agronomic legacy data, and geospatial covariates to provide optimized fertilizer recommendations for wheat. The advisory adapts to either agronomic or economic objectives based on the farmer's preferences and available price data (Abera et al., 2021; Liben et al., 2022; Liben et al., 2024; Mesfin et al., 2023); 2) The landscape-based Specific Fertilizer Recommendation (LANDWise) is a data-driven machine-learning approach for tailored fertilizer recommendations. It also considers landscape position as a critical factor in farmers' agronomic and fertilizer management decisions for sorghum, teff, and wheat. The method utilizes long-term crop response to fertilizer data, considering soil fertility and moisture gradients along landscape positions. Data are collected along landscape positions, soil, and climate data to develop landscape-targeted fertilizer advisories for optimized improved nutrient use efficiency and economic efficiency. Its use should result in the reduction of costs and enhanced productivity for smallholder farmers. Applied to crops like teff, wheat, and sorghum, this advisory uses an app-based digital decision support tool that guides extension agents and farmers with crop and landscape-specific fertilizer applications (Amede et al., 2022; Desta et al., 2023; Desta & Nagaraji, 2022). The experiences from the two site-specific agro advisory systems highlight key learnings in terms of data sources and quality, data analytics for model development like optimization approach, and scales like farm or landscape level. These experiences result in a harmonized agro advisory benefiting from the experience of the two use cases. The core technical components of the national agro-advisory HaFAS are organized in both bundled and modular formats, enhancing accessibility and providing tailored solutions for diverse farming needs. The core agro-advisory constitutes a bundle of site- and crop-specific innovations for fertilizer, lime, climate, and complementary agronomic applications. The core innovation will continue to bundle more site- and crop-specific soil and agronomic advice to respond to tailored demands for enhancing cereal productivity. • Complementary Innovations i. Agronomic practices Recommendations for good agronomic practices such as tillage, seeding rate, weeding, pest management, crop rotations, and post-harvest techniques are integrated into the site-specific core innovation using national agronomy package guidelines. These agronomic advisories are complementary to site-specific advisories. ii. Climate-smart practices Climate advisory services, including planting dates, Climate Information Services (CIS), and seasonal forecasts, are integrated into the LAFA, making it a climate-smart tool that enhances decision-making in an evolving climate landscape. These advisories help users anticipate climate impacts on crops and adjust their practices proactively, promoting resilience and adaptability in agricultural planning. iii. SLM/SWC recommendations Ethiopia has documented experiences related to the restoration and implementation of the best soil and water conservation practices since the mid-1970s. Later, beginning in the early 1990s, the SLM concept and practices (including natural resources management, production, and livelihoods) in a watershed approach were widely scaled in the highlands of Ethiopia. The scaling process evolved different strategies and approaches over the last five decades. The scaling is guided by a comprehensive community-driven participatory guideline at a watershed scale that reflects step-by-step procedures for planning, implementation, monitoring, and post-evaluation. The guideline has incorporated individual technology infotechs describing the environmental, socioeconomic adaptation conditions, and design specifications. Given the decades of experiences and skilled expertise in the field as well as well- documented evidence on the impacts of the SWC practices (Adimassu et al, 2018; Wolka et al, 2018; Abera et al, 2020; Desta et al, 2021) there is ample opportunity to translate the existing SLM/SWC Scaling Delivery Strategy for Harmonized Digital Fertilizer and Agronomic Solutions (HaFAS) for Transforming Crop Production in Ethiopia | Page 26 of 112 CGIAR technology guidelines into site-specific technology recommendation tools that could be used as a complementary, integral advisory with the core innovation. The available evidence on SWC and other CSA practices in complementing soil fertility and supporting productivity, adaptation, and mitigation objectives has been synthesized and is being targeted to complement the LAFA. 2.3 Scaling Readiness of Core Innovation(s) The HaFAS is built upon the experiences of the innovations from the two EiA initiative cases and serves as an integrative approach that brings together the wealth of experiences and expertise from national and international experts to create a state-of-the-art HaFAS that addresses the needs, challenges, and problems of Ethiopia’s highland and midland mixed farming system. The core innovation primarily covers the soil and agronomic advisories for the major cereals (i.e. wheat, teff, maize, and sorghum) that integrate existing advisory experiences to support decision-making by policymakers, extension workers, and smallholder farmers for site and context advisory services. The HaFAS framework is modular (Figure 2.2), meaning innovations and improvements in one part of the HaFAS ecosystem do not affect other parts of the system. Integrated output (or bundled output) from one component serves as input for another, such as transferring data from the data module to the analytics module, requiring integration and innovation to harmonize within each modular. Apart from the modular HaFAS framework, the readiness of the core innovation is influenced by the level of readiness of other innovation packages. It is anticipated that once the LAFA validation is completed (by April 2025), that it will be a core innovation ready to begin scaling while awaiting for other components of HaFAS to be developed and/or integrated into the HaFAS. Figure 2.2. The framework of the technical solutions of the national harmonized HaFAS workflow Data Modules: CoW (Coalition of the Willing, their pooled data); NSIS (National Soil Information System); EthioSIS (Ethiopia soil information grids); SoilGrid (Soil information grid of International Soil Reference and Information Center (ISRIC)); EDACaP (Climate advisory); RS/SP (Remote sensing); Topo (Topographic raster variables); Crop management data (On-farm fertilizer response data) The Data Module addresses all challenges related to input datasets required for building and deploying the HaFAS framework (including calculating fertilizer use, data training, and validation) across different target geographic areas. Core components of the Data Module include collating and integrating relevant legacy agronomic and spatial data, filling data gaps with hyper-localized farmer field-level variables, and producing model-ready datasets. Data from governmental institutes are centralized in a data hub at EIAR for efficient use. The Analytical/Modeling Module utilizes various machine learning techniques, mechanistic models, and empirical models to capitalize on the strengths of each and enhance the predictive capacity of the HaFAS system. The HaFAS analytics module generates site-specific, season-smart, and context-specific recommendations for fertilizer, climate resilience, and soil health (including lime and organic options) with required levels of accuracy and user acceptance. The HaFAS generates advisories at various levels of granularity, depending on farmer seg