INITIATIVE ON Fragility, Con�ict, and Migration INITIATIVE ON Climate Resilience TOWARDS A COMMON VISION OF CLIMATE, PEACE AND SECURITY IN ZIMBABWE December 2024 Authors This report was written jointly by Joseph Makanda, Gracsious Maviza, Giulia Caroli, Joram Tarusarira, Siyaxola Gadu, Mandlenkosi Maphosa, Joyce Takaindisa, Onivola Minoarivelo, Cedric de Coning, Webster Gumindonga, Nqobile Moyo and Peter Laderach. Suggested citation Makanda J, Maviza G, Caroli G, Tarusarira J, Gadu S, Maphosa M, Takaindisa J, M, Onivola, de Coning C, Gumindonga W, Moyo N and Laderach P. (2024). Towards a common vision of climate, peace, security and migration in Zimbabwe. Pretoria: CGIAR. Cover photo: J. SIAMACHIRA / CIMMYT Creative Commons License CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 © 2024 CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security Acknowledgments This report benefitted from the excellent inputs and contributions of colleagues from the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries and Rural Development, the Ministry of Environment, Climate and Wildlife, the African Center for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) and the Southern African Partnerships for the Prevention of Conflict (SAPPC). A special thank you goes to all the workshop participants for their active participation and engagement. This work was carried out with support from the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) and the CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience (ClimBeR). We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund: https://www.cgiar.org/funders/. https://www.cgiar.org/funders/ 3Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Preface The Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development is honoured to present this comprehensive report on the critical intersection of climate change, human mobility and their impacts on social cohesion and stability in Zimbabwe. The report is a product of our collaboration with the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, one of the CGIAR research centres, the Ministry of Environment and Wildlife, ACCORD, and SAPPAC. This document is an essential step in our ongoing efforts to align national strategies with the global agenda on climate action, especially the COP28 Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace objective 13 ‘optimising complementarity of mandates and expertise across climate, development, humanitarian, disaster risk management, and peace actors to further the efficiency, sustainability, and effectiveness of short- and long-term investments, including by providing earlier and more timely support, with the aim to yield cumulative increases in the adaptive capacity, recovery and resilience of people and communities.’ This report synthesises the contributions and discussions of various stakeholders, including government ministries, international organisations, civil society, and academia, during a two-day workshop held in Harare on the 27th and 28th of May 2024. It provides a detailed analysis of the current climate realities in Zimbabwe, examines the vulnerabilities within our population, geographical areas, systems and institutions, and explores the broader implications for peace and security. Importantly, the report offers actionable recommendations that are aligned with both global commitments and national priorities, aiming to secure a sustainable and prosperous future for all Zimbabweans. Zimbabwe, like many other nations, is on the frontlines of climate change, facing unprecedented challenges such as increased drought frequency, erratic rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events. The increasing average temperatures and rainfall variability, as well as extreme weather events, including the current El Nino-induced drought and water scarcity in the country, pose threats to social cohesion and stability to local communities, especially the vulnerable populations. These climate-related issues severely impact our agricultural productivity, threaten food security, and pose significant risks to the well-being and livelihoods of our communities. In response, our national strategies, including the National Climate Policy, National Climate Change Response Strategy, the Zimbabwe Climate-Smart Agriculture Investment Plan, and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), are designed to build resilience, enhance adaptive capacities, and ensure sustainable agricultural development. We are inspired by the resilience and innovation of the Zimbabwean people, who continue to adapt and thrive in the face of these challenges. However, we acknowledge that achieving our goals will require robust policies, coordinated efforts, and substantial investments, particularly in the agricultural sector, which is the cornerstone of our economy and the primary livelihood for the majority of our population. This explains why, as a Ministry, we have already crafted the Agriculture, Food Systems and Rural Transformation Strategy (2023- 2025). As we move forward, it is our hope that this report will serve as a valuable resource for policymakers, development partners, and all stakeholders dedicated to building a resilient and sustainable Zimbabwe. Together, let us work to uphold our national strategies, honour our global commitments, and secure the future of our nation for generations to come in line with the President's motto of building a prosperous Zimbabwe ‘leaving no-one and no place behind’. Dr Dumisani Kutywayo, Chief Director, Department of Agriculture, Research, Innovation and Specialist Services, the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries and Rural Development, Zimbabwe. 4 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Executive summary This report addresses the interconnected challenges posed by climate change, migration, fragility, and socio-economic vulnerability in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe has been significantly impacted by climate variability, evidenced by rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, frequent droughts, and devastating cyclones, which threaten agriculture, the environment, and the livelihoods of millions who depend on rain-fed farming. The report highlights the systemic challenges Zimbabwe faces, including food and water insecurity, displacement, and conflicts over dwindling resources. These issues are further complicated by Zimbabwe’s limited adaptive capacity, economic instability, and the gendered impacts of climate change, which disproportionately affect women and girls. A two-day workshop convened in Harare by the CGIAR Climate Security team, SAPPC and ACCORD brought together key stakeholders to develop a shared understanding and identify strategies to address the peace and security risks associated with climate change and migration. This led to a common vision centred on four main pathways that link climate impacts to socio-political instability in Zimbabwe: 1. Resource competition: scarcity of natural resources, particularly water, has intensified tensions and conflicts, especially in communities where artisanal mining exacerbates land degradation. 2. Food and livelihood insecurity: extreme weather events disrupt agricultural productivity, prompting negative coping strategies like deforestation and artisanal mining, which contribute to environmental degradation and socio-economic strain. 3. Human mobility and displacement: Climate-induced migration is prevalent, with people relocating temporarily or permanently in response to disasters or economic hardship, often straining resources and services in host areas. 4. Negative coping strategies: As communities struggle to adapt, some turn to harmful practices like illegal mining and drug trade, which further destabilize communities. The report outlines a multifaceted policy and programmatic framework to mitigate these impacts, calling for collaborative efforts among government, civil society, and international organizations. Key recommendations include strengthening climate-resilient policies, ensuring conflict-sensitive climate finance, fostering community engagement, and leveraging Indigenous knowledge alongside modern science. Enhanced evidence-based research and integrated climate, peace, and security programs are essential to achieving sustainable development and resilience against climate impacts in Zimbabwe. 5Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE PREFACE 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 ACRONYMS 6 INTRODUCTION 7 SECTION 1 Background and contextual analysis 11 Climate change trends and projections 11 Fragility and socio-economic vulnerability: implications for peace and security 13 Human mobility and displacement 14 Gender, climate, and displacement 15 SECTION 2 Pathways of climate-related risks to peace and security 17 Pathway 1: Competition over natural resources 17 Pathway 2: Food and livelihood insecurity 18 Pathway 3: Human mobility and displacement 19 Pathway 4: Negative coping strategies 20 SECTION 3 A common vision for climate, peace, security and migration for Zimbabwe 21 Policy 1 21 Finance 1 22 Programming 23 Evidence1 25 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 26 REFERENCES 27 ANNEX 1 - Workshop participants 30 ANNEX 2 - Pictures - Ibukun 31 Contents 6 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Acronyms ACCORD African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Dispute AEZ Agro-ecological zones CISU Civil Society in Development DAPPZ Development Aid from People-to-People Zimbabwe EMA Environmental Management Act ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation FCM Fragility, Conflict and Migration GPPAC Global Partnerships for the Prevention of Armed Conflict IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IKS Indigenous Knowledge System LEDS Draft Low Emissions Development Strategy NAMAs National Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDS NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy SAPPC Southern Africa Partnership for the Prevention of Conflict SDGs Sustainable Development Goals ZINGSA Zimbabwe National Geospatial Agency 7Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Introduction Zimbabwe is experiencing significant climate change, evidenced by rainfall variability, increased frequency and magnitude of droughts, prolonged dry spells, violent storms, and tropical cyclones (Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry, 2020). Various sectors, including agriculture, energy, health, infrastructure, and human settlements, are affected by these conditions. Agriculture, the backbone of Zimbabwe's economy, is especially impacted as land becomes increasingly marginal for cultivation due to inadequate rainfall, given that most communities depend on rainfed agriculture, especially the rural population. Over the years, this scenario has triggered a myriad of insecurities, notably food and economic insecurity, social cohesion, resilience, stability, and community relations as groups and communities compete for dwindling resources. According to Chimbari(2024), majority of the Zimbabwean population rely on rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive resources for their livelihoods. This makes them highly susceptible to environmental changes brought about by global warming. Despite these challenges, the government has initiated climate change policy instruments and regulatory frameworks that provide an opportunity to integrate conflict-sensitivity and peacebuilding. For instance, National Climate Response Strategy of Government of Zimbabwe (2021), acknowledges that climate change is one of the major threats with the potential to undermine positive developments achieved so far in meeting the country’s development goals. The population has also shown remarkable resilience, adapting to the changing climate and finding innovative ways to sustain their livelihoods. However, the country's fragility and limited adaptive capacities exacerbate the impacts of climate change, leading to maladaptive practices and responses, which may contribute to community tensions, forced migration and displacement, and, in extreme cases, illegal/criminal activities, violent conflicts, particularly at the local level. This highlights the urgent need for a holistic approach to capacitate the country to address these issues by adopting a climate, peace, security and migration agenda in Zimbabwe. Since 1980, Zimbabwe has experienced at least nine drought episodes, interspersed with occasional but severe storms and floods. Due to insufficient shock-responsive safety nets, over 80 per cent of the people who need food are not covered by social assistance (The World Bank Group, 2024). Responding to Zimbabwe’s cyclical droughts and chronic food insecurity is mainly through humanitarian agencies. Existing risk financing mechanisms are inadequate to mitigate the impact of disaster and cover potential losses the country faces. Climate projections show that the country will likely experience more climate variability, droughts, and periodic storm damage. Moreover, Zimbabwe faces greater downside risk from dry shocks than from wet shocks, save for cyclones such as Idai that the country experienced in the eastern part due to the temperature rising in the Indian Ocean that impacted Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and other southern African countries. Highly variable rainfall patterns will continue—projected climate change impacts the distribution of precipitation trends toward lower levels (The World Bank Group, 2024). The country’s eastern highlands receive more than 1500 mm/year of rainfall, while the southern and western parts are dry and characterized by erratic rainfall of less than 500 mm/year. Mean annual temperature decreases from about 23°C in the low-lying areas in the southwestern parts of the country to about 18°C in the eastern highlands (Manatsa et al., 2020). Floods and droughts within the same hydrometeorological season are common. 8 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Zimbabwe is divided into five agroecological zones (AEZ). Within the agroecological zones, agricultural systems produce various crops, including maize (the predominant staple crop), sorghum, millet, and legumes and rears livestock such as cattle, goats, sheep, pigs, and chickens (Manatsa et al., 2020). However, these zones have shifted over the years due to the devastating effects of climate change and global warming, which have consequently altered the temperature and rainfall regimes (Manatsa et al., 2020). As a result, the shifts have affected patterns of agricultural practice relevant to different regions in the country. Traditionally recognised AEZs are no longer in tandem with the expected agricultural productivity, hence reduced agricultural yields. This led to revising the country’s agroecological zones based on the observed rainfall pattern and temperature and their influence on agricultural practice (Manatsa et al., 2020). The study by the Zimbabwe National Geospatial Agency (ZINGSA) for the Ministry of Higher and Tertiary Education, Innovation, Science and Technology Development showed that a smaller proportion of the country is experiencing better climatic patterns than previously observed and a larger proportion of the AEZ shifted towards drier and less productive categories (Manatsa et al., 2020). The agricultural sector supports people’s livelihoods by creating employment, raising living standards, alleviating rural poverty, and assuring food and nutritional security (Manatsa et al., 2020). The rural population, comprising smallholder farmers, is set to suffer from the emerging impacts of climate change and variability, including disasters such as droughts, periodic flooding, disease outbreaks for humans, crops, and livestock, and loss of croplands (Homann-Kee Tui et al., 2021). They are also susceptible to climate- related risks to peace and security due to negative coping mechanisms such as social and economic tensions over scarce resources which may lead to violent outcomes. The socio-economic impacts of climate change will include exacerbating the existing problems of declining agricultural outputs, declining economic productivity, poverty, and food insecurity. In addition, whilst both men and women have been affected, evidence demonstrates that climate change impacts in Zimbabwe are gendered, with women and girls disproportionately affected and thus more vulnerable. Culturally, the gendered division of labour is clearly demarcated, with men traditionally assigned to the productive role in the household i.e. men as the provider. On the other hand, women are assigned to the reproductive domain where they are traditionally assigned to the role of caregiver to fulfill key duties of child-birth, child rearing and domestic chores such as cooking, cleaning and feeding the family. Consequently, the roles assigned to women inevitably places them as frontline responders to climate change. Significantly, when climate change impacts affect families / communities, this does not necessarily alter the traditionally assigned roles of caregiving and domestic chores as women and girls are still expected to conform to their cultural roles. Sometimes, they walk long distances to look for water and firewood for cooking. Cases of sexual abuse and gender-based violence have also been recorded, especially at water collection points. As such women bear the brunt of climate change risks more than men owing to their limited social mobility, patriarchal dominance, discrimination from decision-making processes, and lack of land and property rights (Garutsa et al., 2018; Nyahunda et al., 2021). The impact of climate change on human security against the backdrop of weak adaptive and absorptive capacities has led to various adaptation responses. For example, migration has been one such response or alternative form of livelihood due to environmental degradation and climate change impacts. People migrate when there are negative changes in the natural environment, 9Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE such as the depletion of natural resources and diminished ecosystems. In addition, dwindling agricultural productivity, droughts, floods, cyclones, deforestation, and desertification occur in the natural environment (Nyahunda & Tirivangasi, 2021; Weinreb et al., 2020). In Zimbabwe, climate change stressors, in combination with prolonged economic challenges, unemployment, and political instability, have contributed to the migration of more than five million Zimbabweans outside the country in the past two decades (Mudefi et al., 2019). Internal climate-related migration has also been observed as people deserted inhabitable areas due to environmental degradation by moving to nearby cities to find paid jobs (Mudefi et al., 2019). Heavy rains, poor drainage and overflow of major rivers such as Limpopo and Zambezi have significantly contributed to flooding and consequent displacements in Matabeleland North and South provinces (Mtapuri et al., 2018). Noteworthy is that women’s mobility in the wake of disasters is circumscribed, again due to the cultural dynamics which determine the productive/ reproductive dichotomy. However, cross border migration has alleviated the challenges brought by climate change in part because the remittances sent by their relatives can take care of the domestic needs of households (Nyahunda et al., 2021). Climatic and environmental factors do not necessarily cause migration or conflict; however, they contribute to understanding the broader picture of both migration and conflict. Hence, understanding the context of climatic and environmental change and the migratory patterns and flows t will be useful to deepen understanding and inform on peace and security implications. This is important not only to advance science but also to influence policy formulation and program design. Against this background, The CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security team at the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT together with the African Center for the Constructive Resolution of Dispute (ACCORD) and the Southern Africa Partnership for the Prevention of Conflict (SAPPC), convened a two-day workshop in Harare on the 27th and 28th of May 2024 as part of the CGIAR initiative on Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM). This workshop brought together stakeholders from government ministries, international organisations, civil society and academia. The key objective of this was to build a shared understanding of the peace and security risks that can emerge across various social scales as a result of the interaction of climate change impacts with displacement and other sources of fragility. Secondly, we aimed to identify priority actions towards a better alignment of humanitarian, development and peace responses. One of the outcomes of this workshop was to establish a common vision for climate, peace, security and migration in the Zimbabwe report. This vision is essential to set the foundations for more coordinated and collaborative efforts to advance the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) agenda in Zimbabwe and promote collaboration through cross-sectoral responses along the Humanitarian-Development and Peace nexus The workshop deployed a methodology that facilitated the following: • a comprehensive understanding of the intersection of climate change, fragility and migration and the implications for peace and security in Zimbabwe; • identification of relevant stakeholders and their roles; • development of actionable recommendations for a climate, peace, security and migration agenda in Zimbabwe. 10 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE The methodology constituted a structured approach through a series of participatory and interactive sessions. Firstly, participants reflected on climate hazards and socio-economic, environmental, cultural, and governance factors contributing to vulnerability and manifestations of conflict to understand the indirect links between climate change impacts and social instability. Secondly, they identified connections between these factors and the links between climate hazards and conflict. To identify stakeholders involved in climate-security issues and examine their roles and interactions, they then identified and listed organizations in Zimbabwe with interests in the climate change – security and migration/displacement nexus at various levels (sub-national, national, regional). They further identified potential multi-stakeholder platforms for engagement and coordination and examined challenges in integrating climate security into current systems. Towards a community of practice for climate, peace, security and migration in Zimbabwe, they used insights from previous sessions to propose recommendations, discussed actions for strengthening institutional frameworks, policies and strategies as well as, integrating climate peace and security into programs, and securing financing. The remainder of this report is structured as follows: the next section offers a contextual analysis of the key climate change, fragility and socioeconomic issues in Zimbabwe. Building on this background, the report then presents four possible pathways of climate-driven risks to peace and security in Zimbabwe that emerged from the workshop engagement. It then highlights a number of key priority areas, as perceived by the workshop participants, for moving forwards a common vision of climate, peace, security and migration in Zimbabwe. PH O TO : M . D EF R EE SE / C IM M YT 11Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Climate change trends and projections Over the past few decades, Zimbabwe has seen substantial changes in its climate, including higher temperatures and different precipitation patterns. The average annual surface temperature in Zimbabwe has increased by around 0.4°C from 1900 to 2000, with a more pronounced warming trend in the last few decades, according to the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS). Between 1960-2010 alone, Zimbabwe’s mean annual temperatures increased by around 1.7°C, being among the highest increase in the region (Engelbrecht et al, 2015; IPCC, 2022). Increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves brought on by temperature increases have a negative impact on human health, water resources, and agriculture (Government of Zimbabwe, 2014). The southern part of Zimbabwe is most vulnerable to heatwaves, with a significant increase in heat stress risk projected for the future (Fig 1). Over the past few decades, rainfall patterns, partly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have become increasingly erratic, with periods of reduced rainfall, heavy downpours, and droughts often occurring in quick succession within the same season (Mamombe et al., 2017). However, there has been a noticeable decrease in yearly precipitation, especially in the southern parts of the nation, resulting in prolonged droughts and water shortages (Chagutah, 2010; Sibanda et al. 2020). Future projections for Zimbabwe suggest a continuation and intensification of current trends (Fig. 1). According to climate models and depending on global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, average temperatures in Zimbabwe might rise by 0.5°C to 5.4°C by the end of the 21st century (CIMP6; IPCC, 2021). This warming is anticipated to decrease the amount of cold days and nights and increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves. Furthermore, it is anticipated that precipitation will drop from October to March, the primary agricultural season, increasing the risk of droughts. Furthermore, higher temperatures and less rainfall are also expected to cause severe water stress, negatively affecting agriculture, water availability and food security (Dube et al., 2013; Chinyoka & Steeneveld, 2023; Ebhuoma 2022). Furthermore, more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as cyclones and floods are expected for Zimbabwe. Droughts have posed the most significant threat to Zimbabwe, surpassing the impact of other natural disasters. The hydro-climatology of Zimbabwe cannot be presented without mentioning the occurrence of droughts. A historiography of droughts in Zimbabwe can trace recorded drought events as far back as the 1890’s. Some of the most severe droughts in Zimbabwe are linked to the El Nino phenomenon (Manatsa et al., 2017), and some of the worst droughts seem to have a 10 to 12-year return period, e.g. the 1982-84, 1991-1992, and 2002-2003 droughts. The 2023-2024 season has already been declared an El Nino-induced drought disaster for the Southern African region, including Zimbabwe, affecting more than 80% of the country and resulting in significantly below-normal harvest (WFP, 2024). Droughts vary in duration, intensity and severity, determining the magnitude of their devastating impacts. Although many regions in Zimbabwe are prone to drought, the northern part is at the highest risk. Future projections indicate that drought conditions are expected to significantly increase, with the most changes anticipated in the eastern region (Fig 1). Droughts lead to devastating impacts on agriculture, food security, water resources, and livelihoods across the country. In recent years, climate change has intensified drought conditions in Zimbabwe, leading to more frequent and prolonged dry spells across different regions. SECTION 1: Background and contextual analysis 12 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE The most destructive records of floods have been caused by Tropical Cyclones such as Cyclones Idai and Keneth in early 2019. With around 299 people killed and 270,000 affected in Zimbabwe (IPCC, 2022), Cyclones Idai and Keneth left a trail of infrastructure destruction, loss of agricultural land, and loss of lives, particularly in Manicaland and Masvingo Provinces. Previous cyclones, such as Cyclone Eline in 2000 and Cyclone Dineo in 2017, also caused significant damage in Zimbabwe, highlighting the vulnerability of the country to extreme weather events. These cyclones have underscored the urgent need for improved disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation strategies in Zimbabwe. Currently, flood-prone areas are primarily in the southeastern region around Manicaland and the northern region around the Zambezi basin. Future climate projections indicate that flooding risks will intensify across all of Zimbabwe, with the greatest increases expected in these same regions (Fig 1). The socioeconomic growth of Zimbabwe is facing significant problems due to the impacts of these climate change-related trends and extreme events. Zimbabwe's economy and way of life are based primarily on agriculture, which makes it highly susceptible. Figure 1: Baseline and future climate hazards in Zimbabwe, including drought, heat, and flooding. Compound hazards are defined as the composite risk of heat, drought, and flood to account for the cumulative impact of multiple co-occurring hazards. An ensemble of 27 general circulation models was used to develop the climate indices. Climate data were sourced from the 6th Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMPI6). The climate pathway with high radiative forcing (SSP585) was used for the future projections. 13Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Due to heat stress and decreased water availability, crop yields are expected to diminish, particularly for maize, the primary food (Mupakati & Chipindu, 2016). The rise in the frequency of extreme weather events like floods and cyclones may cause infrastructure damage, community uprooting, and elevated health concerns. Despite recent developments in the climate change policy architecture, Zimbabwe must improve its climate adaptation and mitigation plans to meet these challenges. It should prioritise disaster risk reduction, climate- smart agriculture, and sustainable water management (Chanza & De Wit, 2016; Veronica et al, 2022). Fragility and socio-economic vulnerability: implications for peace and security Zimbabwe is a landlocked country in Southern Africa and shares borders with Zambia to the northwest, Mozambique to the east, Botswana to the southwest, and South Africa to the south. It has an estimated 15 million people and a total land area of 391,000 square kilometres (Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency, 2021). In Zimbabwe, along with the adverse impacts of climate change, other fragility and socioeconomic challenges continue to hamper economic development and potential, including macroeconomic volatility fueled by monetary and substantial exchange rate instability (The World Bank Group, 2024). Inflation remained high in 2024 as the local currency continued to depreciate. In February 2024, annual inflation increased for the fourth consecutive month, from 26.5 % in December 2023 to 47.6% in February 2024. The official exchange rate depreciated by 788 % in 2023, with the parallel market premium estimated at 30 % as of February 2024. The country’s current account surplus narrowed in 2023 as remittances from non- governmental organisations contracted (Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency, 2021). Real GDP growth was projected to slow further to 3.3% in 2024, partly owing to macroeconomic instability (high inflation and severe exchange rate volatility), an El Niño-related drought, and lower commodity prices. El-Nino-induced drought was predicted to affect most rain-fed crops and potentially intensify electricity supply shortages (Government of Zimbabwe, 2024). Consequently, inflationary pressures were predicted to intensify in 2024 due to drought conditions and domestic tax increases. Additionally, the fiscal deficit was predicted to increase in 2024, driven by high-interest payments on external debt, drought mitigation-related spending, wage pressures, and the reversal of several budget revenue measures. Moreover, the current account surplus is expected to shrink further, reflecting increased imports due to drought conditions and lower commodity prices (The World Bank Group, 2024). The government's National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), the country’s economic blueprint, acknowledges the role of climate change in increasing the frequency of extreme weather conditions such as drought, floods, storms, and heat waves and leading to weather catastrophes such as the Tugwi-Murkosi floods of 2013-2014, which led to the displacement of thousands of communities in Masvingo and the Cyclone Idai disaster in 2019 (Government of Zimbabwe, 2021). Numerous sectors, such as agriculture, water, health, infrastructure, energy and human settlements are severely impacted by climate-related hazards. The 2024 historic dry spell at a critical crop development period resulted in poor harvest. Millions of people will resort to alternative sources of income, social support, and humanitarian assistance to access food during the longer-than-normal 2024/25 lean season. Humanitarian aid is expected to remain high in many areas of the country until the harvest in 2025. Livestock 14 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE poverty deaths are expected to be high at the start of the 2024/25 rainy season in October 2024 due to limited access to water and pasture (FEWS NET, 2024). Rainfall variability is closely linked with economic growth, reflecting the agricultural sector's dominance and vulnerability to water stress. The water challenges are compounded by Zimbabwe’s water and sanitation infrastructure being aged and, therefore, more expensive to maintain. The water challenges, which are particularly severe in urban areas, have contributed to an increase in water-borne diseases (Mutandwa and Vyas-Doorgapersad, 2023). Most of the country’s infrastructure, such as schools, roads and schools require rehabilitation. Climate-related hazards, including extreme localized/ flash floods continue to worsen this situation and challenge the capacity of national and local authorities to meet the basic needs of an increasingly growing population, such as water, electricity and food. Significantly, the prevailing economic environment makes it difficult to address competing needs of the population, thus leading to to limited action. The country’s energy output has been compromised, as the Kariba hydro-power station operates at only 87 per cent of its total capacity. This might worsen owing to reduced water levels required to support the operation of dams (Brown et al., 2012). The net effect of all these challenges is a fragile state more vulnerable to internal or external shocks. Fragile states are more affected by climate change and environmental degradation than more resilient countries, and fragility and conflict reinforce each other. Contexts of conflict are susceptible to fragility and vice versa. Human mobility and displacement Human mobility has a long and well-documented history in Zimbabwe, dating back to colonial times (Maviza, 2020; Moyo, 2017; Mlambo, 2010). The country has faced significant challenges that have led to internal and cross-border movements. Human mobility has shaped the country's economy andlocal communities, with notable implications on the well-being of affected populations and the broader socio-economic landscape. (Nzima & Maviza, 2023a; Zack et al., 2019; Ncube et al., 2014). Mobility patterns are diverse, ranging from rural-urban to cross-border/international migration. Contrary to popular media discourse which suggests mobilities from Africa are largely to the Global North, the mobility of Zimbabweans has been predominantly intra-regional, with the majority opting to migrate to South Africa (as the popular migration corridor), followed by other neighbouring countries such as Botswana and Namibia. On one hand, rural-urban mobility in Zimbabwe resulted either from colonial legacies of uneven spatial development between rural and urban areas that fuelled movement into cities where economic activities were concentrated soon after independence (Munzwa & Wellington, 2010; Takyi, 2011; Potts & Mutambirwa, 1990; Potts, 2010) or, more recently, climate change and variability that is adversely affecting agricultural production and forcing many to look for greener pastures / alternative livelihood options (Nzima & Maviza, 2023a). On the other hand, regional and/or international emigration has been fuelled by the prolonged socio- economic challenges that have affected Zimbabwe for decades (Maviza & Nzima, 2023b; Mlambo, 2010; Moyo, 2017). The economic crisis in the country exacerbated food insecurity, compelling some citizens to emigrate in search of better opportunities, mainly in South Africa, Botswana and the United Kingdom (Moyo, 2020a; Nyamunda, 2014) because of their better-standing economies. Although human mobility in Zimbabwe has been both voluntary and involuntary, it can be argued that a significant proportion is involuntary, often forced by economic hardships, to some extent natural disasters, 15Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE and climate change impacts (Nzima & Maviza, 2023a). Climate change impacts have increasingly become a significant driver of human mobility in Zimbabwe. For instance, Cyclone Idai, in 2019 Furthermore, recurrent droughts, which have become more frequent and severe due to climate change, have led to frequent crop failures and water shortages, prompting many to migrate to places where conditions are perceived to be better. This has led to increased resource competition and unsustainable pressure on existing social amenities, which now fail to sustain additional populations due to migration. Significantly, the protracted economic instability on the backdrop of political challenges stretching over the past three decades have led to the portrayal of Zimbabwe as a significant emigrant and refugee sender (Crush & Tevera, 2010; Crush et al., 2015; McGregor & Pasura, 2010; McGregor & Primorac, 2010; Mlambo, 2010). Studies continue to show that due to economic and political challenges in the country, (whose geneses date back to the land reform programme in the year 2000 and Operation Murambatsvina in 2005 among other factors), Zimbabwe continues to transition from being a receiver of migrants to one of the region's biggest net senders (Crush & Tevera, 2010; Ncube, 2010). While the preceding scenario has been/continues to be explored, less research has been given to the refugee inflows into Zimbabwe and the country’s experiences hosting refugees and/or asylum seekers (Chikanda & Crush, 2016; Takaindisa, 2021). Crucially, the significant refugee inflows into Zimbabwe, contrary to migration scholarship, suggest that the country is not only migrant-sending nation. Instead, Zimbabwe experiences mixed migration flows: first, as a refugee and asylum seekers receiving destination and secondly, as a transit destination used by migrants en-route to other neighbouring countries (notably South Africa which is considered the preferred destination intra-regionally). As such, Zimbabwe hosts a significant number of refugees and asylum seekers fleeing conflicts and persecution in their countries of origin. Currently, the country hosts refugees from DRC, Rwanda, Burundi and Mozambique, among others, with DRC being the biggest sender (Chikanda & Crush, 2016; Matseketsa & Mhlanga, 2020; Sidzumo-Mazibuko, 1998). S such, human mobility and displacement in Zimbabwe are multifaceted issues that require comprehensive and coordinated responses. Addressing the root causes of displacement, such as economic hardships and climate change-induced extreme weather events and hazards, is crucial for developing pragmatic, sustainable solutions. Gender, climate, and displacement Climate change is more than a shift in weather patterns; it's a catalyst for profound social upheaval, deeply affecting gender dynamics (Alonso-Epelde et al., 2024) and causing widespread displacement (Draper, 2024). As climate-induced events such as droughts and floods become more frequent and severe, the impact on communities is devastating, exacerbating existing gender inequalities and driving mass migrations (Sithole, et al., 2023). In Zimbabwe, as is the case across the global South countries, the effects of climate change are deeply gendered. Women, who make up the majority (approximately 70% of household labour) of the agricultural workforce (UNDP, 2024), are hit hardest by extreme weather events. They are primarily responsible for food production, water collection, and energy provision through firewood gathering. This places them as frontline responders to the effects of climate change and highly exposed to human security and protection risks. For instance, as droughts dry up water sources and floods destroy crops, women are forced to travel greater distances for water and firewood, increasing their workload and exposing them to higher risks of sexual violence and harassment (Chingarande, et al., 2020; Sithole et al., 2023). This situation is exacerbated by skewed resource and asset ownership and access social landscape where women have limited access to land, credit, and agricultural inputs thereby curtailing their ability to recover 16 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE from climate shocks (Chingarande et al., 2020; Masuku et al., 2023; Njunge, undated). This vulnerability often drives them to seek alternative livelihoods in precarious environments, such as artisanal mining, where they face exploitation and abuse. The displacement from rural to urban areas or mining camps strips them of community support structures, leaving them more vulnerable to gender-based violence and economic exploitation (Chidakwa, et al., 2020). For instance, in the aftermath of Cyclone Idai, reports indicated significant gender-based violence (GBV), with 49 cases of physical abuse, five of rape, and 26 of sexual abuse documented among the survivors (Chatiza, 2019). The disaster further limited women’s access to reproductive health services, leading to increased social isolation and marginalisation (Sibanda et al, 2022). However, the impacts of climate change on women does not mean men are not affected too. Evidence shows that men in Zimbabwe are also significantly affected by climate change, albeit in different ways. Traditionally seen as primary breadwinners, they are pressured to provide for their families through farming or livestock rearing. When crops fail, or livestock perish due to extreme weather, men face heightened stress and mental health issues, including depression and substance abuse (Maviza et al., 2024). The loss of traditional livelihoods often forces men to migrate to urban areas or neighbouring countries in search of work, disrupting family structures and community cohesion (Sithole et al., 2023). Migration is often adopted more readily by men as an adaptation strategy. In the context of disasters, the repetitive nature of these displacements invoked new mobility patterns, with some communities choosing to permanently relocate to avoid future flood risks. This relocation often results in conflicts over resources between internally displaced persons (IDPs) and host communities (Caroli, et al., 2024). In other cases, mobility has been temporary, with families / communities moving away temporarily when hazard impacts are high and returning to their communities of origin when risks subside. In yet another form of mobility, affected persons have resorted to labour migration across regional / international borders to pursue alternative livelihoods. Climate -induced mobility patterns thus vary, with various factors coming into play vis-à-vis the decision-making process. Key factors include but are not limited to access to resources, gender, type of hazard experienced (slow-onset or sudden on-set hazards), locally available alternative livelihood opportunities, available labour migration pathways etc. Nonetheless, what is evident is without any doubt is how climate change hazards have impacted and continues to affect communities, leading to migration and displacement and often inducing resource conflicts among migrants/ IDPs and host/receiving communities. The next segment will discuss the main pathways of conflict that participants identified as having a bearing on social cohesion and peace in the context of Zimbabwe. 17Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE This section comprises of the result and discussion of the pathways that were identified in the workshop, through which the adverse impacts of climate variability and change interact with pre-existing drivers of vulnerability to generate dynamics that affect social cohesion, resilience, stability and peace at different social scales. The concept of “pathways” has been largely used in the climate, peace and security field to address the need to strike a balance between the complexity of nature-society relations on the one hand and the need for simplicity and policy applicability on the other. It follows that in real case scenarios, these pathways can emerge four pathways were found to be of relevance for the Zimbabwean context: (i) competition over natural resources; (ii) livelihood and food insecurity; (iii) human mobility; and (iv) negative coping strategies. As has already been alluded to elsewhere in this report, climatic and environmental factors are not the only causes of the socio-economic and fragility challenges that the country is facing. However, these elements contribute to reshaping the country’s peace and security landscape substantially, making it more complex and intractable. It is crucial to understand how climate change interacts with peace and security concerns at the local level by analyzing the correlation between climate hazards and their impact on new and existing socio-economic and political vulnerabilities. These factors and the accompanying responses determines the adaptive capacities of affected hence playing a key role in determining the overall effect of the climate hazards they face. The key pathways identified are discussed in detail below. Pathway 1: Competition over natural resources Noting the negative impacts of climate change that have characterized Zimbabwe for years, there is a growing concern that each year, the impacts have become more devastating that the previous, suggesting that each year surpasses previous years in severity and extent. This scenario suggests the urgency to address these challenges holistically to address the increasing food and water insecurities grappling communities vis-à-vis resource scarcities. In this context, participants highlighted that over the past years, most families in the country have been facing water-related challenges, such as water shortages and lack of clean water, particularly in urban areas. These difficulties s have led to the rapid spread of water-borne diseases such as cholera and typhoid, owing to poor sanitation and hygiene. In addition, land availability and land distribution are both historically and presently contested issues in Zimbabwe due to the expansion of mining activities and reduction of arable land for agricultural production with artisanal miners often violating and disregarding land use regulations. Land degradation, depletion of soil fertility and and loss of livestock feature among the most common problems attributed to worsening climatic impacts. A growing concern points to artisanal mining as the leading cause of environmental degradation in Zimbabwe, noting that excessive use of mercury and cyanide for mining are largely responsible for polluting surface and groundwater. SECTION 2: Pathways of climate-related risks to peace and security 18 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE A significant consequence of the scarcity of natural resources is increased competition over access and use, with dire implications for maintaining social stability and peaceful relations. For instance, some participants noted that tensions have emerged between different water users in the same communities or between communities, such as in the case of the small-scale conflicts among or between farmers and herders over dwindling grazing pastures and water resources, which at times have turned violent. While irrigation schemes and land regulations are currently in place i.e. Environmental Management Act (EMA) to address these issues , weak law enforcement and lack of compliance and monitoring mechanisms often inhibit their implementation. So far, this implies that in some cases they have proved ineffective in preventing or resolving resource-related conflicts. The disjuncture between policy and practice suggests the need for relevant stakeholders to identify ways of bridging this gap to promote peace-positive communities by addressing resource conflicts effectively. Pathway 2: Food and livelihood insecurity The second pathway identified is food and livelihood insecurity as a consequence of negative climate change impacts on peoples’ livelihoods and security in Zimbabwe. Extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts cause destruction to infrastructure and food value chains, disrupt the delivery of services, affect food production and drive migration. Crop failure due to droughts or flooding is making it difficult for many people, especially those living in rural communities, to produce and afford food. This is due to the rising price of food as supply cannot meet demand. Climate change has affected the production of maize, which is a staple crop in the country. The increase in the cost of living often drives migration, as people move from rural areas to urban areas as well as to neighboring countries like South Africa and Botswana or even abroad in search of a descent livelihood and job opportunities. Land degradation, including soil erosion and the loss of healthy soil which is affecting not only subsistence farmers’ abilities to produce their crops but also the productivity of commercial farmers is undoubtedly ushering in newer forms of mobility and migratory patterns. As commercial farms become less productive and revenues decrease, more jobs are lost in the process; this drives migration to urban areas that are ill-equipped to deal with the influx of people into them. In many cases, cities struggle to expand their services to the increasing number of citizens, thus straining service delivery and affecting social stability. In addition, the increased number of people increases competition for the limited jobs available in the urban areas. This scenario often induces maladaptive practices as vulnerable persons often resort to coping mechanisms that are detrimental to their socio-economic, physical and psychosocial health. People often turn to poor or detrimental coping mechanisms. In the case of Zimbabwe, one of these coping mechanisms is artisanal mining whose benefits are outweighed by the extent of environmental degradation Some of the impacts of illegal artisanal mining includes the destruction of critical infrastructure such as water bodies (above and below the surface), roads, while schools and houses have also collapsed due to mining activities. Anthropogenically, yet nother coping mechanism adopted is the felling of trees to sell as firewood and excessively used by tobacco farmers for drying their tobacco, thus leading to the loss of biodiversity in Zimbabwe. Due to the high unemployment rates affected populations in some cases are resorting to crime as a livelihood strategy. Participants also highlighted that some community members have resorted to trading in drugs as a form of income, while people affected by unemployment are increasingly turning to these drugs as a form of relief from their struggles, particularly the youth who are starved of sustainable employment / economic opportunities after graduating. The drug problem is a scourge that has been identified as needing urgent attention as it disrupting peace in families and communities. 19Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Pathway 3: Human mobility and displacement The third pathway identified strongly featured as evidence of climate-induced mobilities. In Zimbabwe, climate-related impacts are contributing towards different human mobility patterns. Climate extreme events, including flash floods, landslides and cyclones have displaced large numbers of people. This displacement can be either temporary, where exposed communities are forced to leave their homes for a short period after an extreme event and return once conditions improve, or it can result in more permanent relocation of communities in the aftermath of climate hazards, particularly in areas prone to flooding or desertification. More gradual changes in the climate through rising temperatures and variability in precipitation have long- term effects on the livelihood of the rural population. The impacts on agricultural production alter the socio-economic conditions of vulnerable populations, affecting their decision-making processes regarding migration to areas perceived as more promising for sustaining their livelihoods. Migration patterns differ depending on the opportunities, social capital and socio-cultural context. For example, participants highlighted that to a large extent, climate impacts are contributing to rural-urban migration. Due to low agriculture yields induced by climate change hazards, a large population of the rural population, particularly the youth are moving to urban areas to seek alternative livelihood opportunities. Some individuals turn to migration as an adaptation strategy even though it maybe seasonal migration, often rural-rural migration, seeking work in different regions of Zimbabwe. Over and above that, climate-related impacts contribute to cross-border migration, with people seeking refuge or economic opportunities in other countries, particularly within the region, migrating to South Africa, Botswana, or Mozambique. Finally, the climate change – climate mobility nexus needs to be looked at in sum and substance by taking into consideration the various structural, cultural, and socioeconomic factors that render populations vulnerable. Economic instability in the country, characterized by high inflation and unemployment, decreases people's resilience to withstand climate impacts and contributes to migration. Vulnerability also differs along lines of gender and age, placing disproportionate burdens on women, the elderly, persons with disabilities (PWDs) and children. These are populations who are normally have to contend with immobility, not out of choice but because they lack the means nor the resources to move. This may often mean they are left behind and continue to be domiciled in areas that are risky to stay hence becoming trapped. In such case, these populations are unable to use migration as an adaptation method, more so in a society dominated by patriarchal traditions. Consequently, (im)mobility dynamics are compounded by cultural norms, as predominantly men are the first movers, leaving women with increased household management workloads. Changing household roles have been shown to affect mental health and increase gender-based violence. The impact of migration also has social effects, as it weakens family structures and breaks down the family unit. It also has the effect of breaking societal links, as communities may engage in conflicts over resources or they may scatter and migrate across the country and the region. Effective social safety nets are key to support and assist those who have lost their livelihoods by provisioning food aid, money and sustainable planned relocation options, among many others through a multistakeholder approach. However, participants noted that this aid can drive gender-based violence, as fights break out in households over how best to use the aid provided to them. Domestic violence can have the additional effects of placing a burden on the healthcare system and the loss of income, as people have to recover from injuries instead of working. In 20 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE addition, some families might resort to child marriages as a survival strategy, as this removes the burden of having to feed the child, while lobola (bride price) can provide a financial lifeline for the family. This exemplifies maladaptation and questions the efficacy of child-protection mechanisms in place, which in the case of child marriages is a clear demonstration of failure to protect the girl child give the salient aspect of commodification involved in early child marriages. Furthermore, displacement and migration dynamics can lead to tensions within receiving areas as newcomers and host communities compete for the same resources and social services. In the present context, increasing urbanization has strained available infrastructure, services, land, and water, while the sprouting of informal settlements has led to conflicts with local authorities, contributing to secondary displacement through evictions. Another common source of tension has been the human-wildlife conflict, as decreasing water availability has altered the migration patterns of indigenous wildlife, bringing them into closer proximity to human settlements. Pathway 4: Negative coping strategies Finally, climatic impacts have invoked complicated socio-economic dynamics across communities. In Zimbabwe, agriculture production and livestock rearing are key sources of wealth and livelihood and economic sustenance, therefore, prolonged and frequent droughts and unpredictable rain patterns often lead to poor harvests, acute food shortages and food insecurity which leads to decreased crop yields. Droughts and floods result in livestock deaths due to lack of grazing pastures and water. This has direct negative community impacts on their social and economic dynamics and due to lack of guidance and inadequate social safety nets to cushion them during these difficult periods, communities tend to employ negative coping strategies to adapt and mitigate the adverse impacts of the food and human insecurity and gender- based violence at household level. Some community members turn to organised crime through cattle rustling for income generation and economic sustenance. A large portion of communities have turned to harmful precious mineral mining practices where they use banned mining chemicals such as cyanide which poisons surface and underground water. The sometimes sporadic and unsupervised artisanal mining activities cause massive land degradation, soil erosion and key infrastructural damage, such as buildings collapsing, roads and rail lines being compromised by their mining shafts which are too close to the surface. Artisanal miners often do not get environmental impact assessment reports or inspections from relevant authorities hence their practices lead to massive loss of land and water biodiversity. Participants at the workshop reported that extreme and sometimes violent conflicts over mining claims are frequent and often escalate from physical fights to the use of dangerous weapons such e.g. knives, guns and machete fights generating a dangerous culture of violence which has extremist tendencies. Deforestation has also become rampant in both urban and rural areas as people cut down trees for commercialization of firewood and tobacco curing. In addition, incessant power cuts is exacerbating illegal tree chopping as people looks resort to alternative energy sources. Moreover, the mass deforestation is not accompanied by reforestation efforts to replenish destruction of trees. The compounded impacts of climate change lead some families to marry off young girls who are still children / below the legal age of majority as a means to gain dowry money. Women and young girls may also turn to illegal sex work for economic sustenance. 21Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE SECTION 3: A common vision for climate, peace, security and migration for Zimbabwe Policy Many African countries, including Zimbabwe acknowledge the existence of multiple and diverse indirect mechanisms linking climate, conflict, and security requires multisectoral policy approach. Produced climate policy frameworks and strategies such as National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPAs) and National Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) in line with the UNFCCC. However, they have not implemented these in any meaningful ways or developed national institutional capacities to respond organically to climate change. Zimbabwe is in the process of developing national legislations that are intended to guide adaptation projects and programmes. Legislation on climate change in Zimbabwe is crucial for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable development. For example, in its National Climate Response Strategy (2021), the government of Zimbabwe seek to create a pathway towards a climate-resilient and low-carbon development economy in which the people have enough adaptive capacity and continue to develop in harmony with the environment. By establishing legally binding targets for reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to renewable energy sources, the Zimbabwean government is demonstrating its commitment to addressing climate change. As this report is being written, Zimbabwe is conducting consultative meetings on the draft Climate Change Management Bill. Furthermore, in its climate change strategy, the Zimbabwean government has integrated climate change programs and planning at national, provincial and local levels. The foregoing government efforts signify the country's commitment to addressing environmental challenges and climate change. There are also policies based on the experiences and insights of civil society organisations working on climate change in Zimbabwe (as coordinated through the Civil Society Climate Change Working Group) to examine local and national responses to climate change, with a particular focus on how these respond to the needs of the most vulnerable rural and urban populations. For instance, a new project aimed at building the resilience of communities in Chimanimani District was implemented by Development Aid from People-to-People Zimbabwe (DAPPZ) in partnership with Civil Society in Development (CISU) through UFF- Humana. This specific project seeks to promote climate-smart agriculture, agroforestry, and biodiversity and strengthen the transformative capacities of the community and local authorities to adapt to climate change. Whilst these policies aim at promoting sustainable development and proffer solutions for mitigation, there is still need for a conflict sensitive and peace approaches that foster resilience by engendering adaptive capacities of those affected by climate change. Whilst minimizing and eliminating social tensions and instability over scarce resources. In view of the foregoing, a number of recommendations and suggestions were shared by participants as a way forward, key among these a comprehensive policy framework that adequately addresses climate, peace, security and displacement issues in Zimbabwe: 22 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE The Zimbabwean government and other policymakers should recognise the climate, peace and security nexus as important elements in climate action. This can be realized by integrating climate, peace and security into policies such as the National Climate Policy and Strategy to make climate mitigation and adaption plans and programmes sensitive to Zimbabwe’s social cohesion, resilience, stability and peace. • Develop climate-sensitive peace and conflict policies by incorporating the available local-level solutions and community voices in mitigating and responding to the adverse impacts of climate. One way of doing this is by localizing the language used to describe the effects of climate change in Zimbabwe’s national Climate Policy and strategy. • Develop policies that foster collaboration and partnerships around climate, peace and security through relevant multi-stakeholder platforms within distinct levels of regional, national and sub-national work and between international, governmental and non-governmental actors to address the multidimensional challenges of climate security. • Amplify the voices and solutions from the most critical constituency in climate change – climate security nexus i.e. the individuals and communities most impacted. Solutions without them are usually incompatible with local people and subsequently prove to be unsustainable, illustrating the need for participatory approaches. • Resuscitate the use of indigenous knowledge Systems (IKS) that seems to have been abandoned by communities as the climate change related risks are seemingly being overwhelmed by the climate change impacts. The younger generation has more trust in scientific and technological processes such as cloud seeding, drip irrigation that the traditional national rainmaking ceremonies done at the Njelele Shrine when rains where poor or erratic. Therefore, traditional and community leaders and arms of government must resuscitate and ensure that IKS are not discarded but are simultaneously implemented with modern day technological advents. Finance According to the Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe (2020), climate finance refers to financial resources required to cover the costs of infrastructure projects that support transitioning to a low-carbon and climate change resilient economy, either through: Mitigation - actions that slow or reduce climate change; or Adaptation - contributing to climate change resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change. While the Zimbabwean government has developed policies and strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, climate finance is crucial to help Zimbabwe implement the National Climate Policy, Climate Change Response Strategy, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Draft Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS), Renewable Energy Policy, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – in particular, Goal 13 dedicated to urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. Moreover, financial support is instrumental in addressing displacement challenges by assisting affected populations and supporting the development of durable solutions within the HDP nexus. Financial resources are instrumental in building resilience among communities affected by the adverse impacts of climate change; especially farmers who are now abandoning their agricultural land and migrating elsewhere. 23Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE In compounded climate, peace, security, and displacement risks, funding is essential for sustaining peacebuilding efforts, strengthening security institutions, and fostering community-based conflict resolution mechanisms (UNDP, 2021; Läderach et al., 2021; Moe, 2024). Moreover, financial support is instrumental in addressing displacement challenges by assisting affected populations and supporting the development of durable solutions within the HDP nexus (UNDP, 2021; ReDSS, 2021). Mobilising and allocating financial resources strategically are key to building a foundation for long-term resilience, stability, and sustainable development in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe has been significantly dependent on global finance mechanisms to mitigate the effects of climate change as its domestic finance mechanisms have not been fully explored. This has left a financing gap to climate action. The absence of finance may increase the vulnerability of Zimbabweans to extreme weather events leading to loss of life and property and compromised adaptive capacity. Therefore, it is crucial that Zimbabwe develops an adaptation financing framework aligned to different sectoral policies that can leverage diverse opportunities such as blended climate financing. It is also important to revise the current global climate finance system to ensure it works justly. The following are some of the suggested ways of that were suggested by participants during the workshop with regards to climate finance: • There is a need for a concerted and integrated approach to resolving climate adaptation financing challenges in Zimbabwe if progress is to be made and positive results are to be realised. In this regard, concerted efforts must formulate and align climate adaptation financing and implementation strategies. Any such policies related to climate adaptation financing must also be harmonised. • Ensure conflict-sensitivity to climate finance to avoid maladaptation and mal-mitigation of climate action programming by adopting a peace-positive approach that aims to harness co-benefits of climate resilience and social cohesion and ensure that catalytic climate finance is channeled into conflict- affected areas. • Strategic partnerships with the private sector are a key enabler for gathering climate finance from diverse sources including global multilateral and bilateral funds, development finance institutions, the private sector, and philanthropic institutions. Diverse sources of finance are vital to addressing compounding risks and target most vulnerable populations. • To prioritise investments in climate change adaptation, there is a need to unpack localized climate risks and how adaptation can be used in de-risking some investments in Zimbabwe. Programming Programming is fundamental in addressing the intricate challenges of climate change, peace, security, and displacement in Zimbabwe. An adequate response to the compounded challenges posed by the link between the impacts of climate change, peace and security dynamics in Zimbabwe requires a tailored and effective programming. Zimbabwe requires a well-designed multisectoral programming where policymakers, researchers, humanitarian, development, and peace communities collaborate to address and solve the compounding impacts of climate change in a coordinated manner. A multisectoral programming 24 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE can foster both government and community engagements, conflict resolution, and the establishment of inclusive institutions, contributing to overall stability (UNU - CPR, 2023). Moreover, targeted programming for displaced populations is crucial in providing essential services, livelihood support, and integration strategies. Relevant multisectoral programming within distinct levels of regional, national and sub-national work and between international, governmental and non-governmental actors holds key to addressing the multidimensional challenges of climate security in Zimbabwe. Furthermore, it is vital to recognise local-level solutions and community voices in climate change programming in Zimbabwe. This is due to fact that climate change adaptation and mitigation are local tasks due to the localisation of impacts of climate change and the context-specific nature of adaptation and mitigation responses. The following points summarise the entry points identified at the workshop: • Implement conflict-sensitive and risk informed programming along the HDP nexus through integrated approaches, responding to the compounding challenges within conflict-affected areas exposed to climate impacts. Understanding vulnerabilities related to the interaction of climate, peace and security dynamics improves peace-sensitive operations that work to enhance social cohesion and human security. • Strengthen household and community resilience capacities rather than increasing humanitarian assistance support; this can be achieved through better integration of disaster risk management into adaptation and mitigation measures. • Mainstream gender and youth in climate actions; research, finance, programming and policy in Zimbabwe. Gender- and values -sensitive methodologies can help improve power imbalances and gender-specific vulnerabilities, tactically targeting investment where it is most beneficial. • Strengthen local government structures and institutions to drive these processes based on comprehensive climate and conflict analysis mainstreamed into the design and implementation of all development strategies that should aim to tackle both local and national vulnerabilities. • Recognise local-level solutions and community voices in decision-making by employing a blended approach that integrates both African (localised) and Western approaches in addressing and mitigating the devasting impacts of climate change in Zimbabwe. Evidence The need to advance a responsive and evidence-based approach to climate-related risks to peace and security remains critical as Zimbabwe continues to experience devastating impacts of climate variability. Research evidence is important in addressing the multifaceted challenges of climate change, peace, security, and displacement in Zimbabwe. For example, Zimbabwe has suffered the suffered the devastating effects of tropical cyclones Idai, Kenneth in 2019 and Ana in 2021 leaving many as internally displaced persons (IDPs) (OCHA, 2022). Zimbabwe has also experienced prolonged periods of droughts and water scarcity, which has led some rural farmers to abandon their agricultural land and migrate elsewhere to 25Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE seek alternative income-generating opportunities (Nzima & Maviza, 2023). In the face of escalating climate-related disasters, such as cyclones and floods, thorough research helps to understand the local vulnerabilities and design resilient strategies. Evidence-based insights are crucial for formulating effective policies that promote sustainable development, mitigate climate impacts, and foster peace and security (Liebig et al., 2022; von Uexkull & Buhaug, 2021). Additionally, research aids in comprehending the complex dynamics underlying displacement, enabling the creation of targeted interventions to support affected populations (Kenny & Lawton, 2023). For example, cyclone Idai and Kenneth displaced some Zimbabweans leaving them destitutes with limited access to food, water supplies and basic amenities. Furthermore, crop failure and redundancy in the agricultural sector due to the effects of climate change have resulted in some people moving to urban areas to seek alternative livelihoods, whilst others have moved to the artisanal mining sector. This has brought a demographic diversity that may invite future tensions underpinned by competition over scarce basic commodities in urban areas and clashes over mining territories, respectively. By emphasising evidence-based decision-making, Zimbabwe can develop holistic approaches that integrate climate adaptation, conflict resolution, and humanitarian efforts, ultimately contributing to the long-term well-being and stability of the country. An example of good practice on this was the development of climate security indicators that were simultaneously designed through the development of a Climate Security Risk Assessment toolkit by African experts in their local communities in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Uganda, in partnership with the Global Partnerships for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC). The output from the engagement was a practical Step-by-Step Guide that shows practitioners how to document, assess, and address climate-related security risks at the local level through five steps based on local and indigenous knowledge and expertise. This approach is useful when designing strategies for mitigation and adaptation to climate risks. The findings can be shared with national, regional, and global policymakers to facilitate context-specific responses informed by the directly affected communities. For the first time ever, the toolkit has enabled empirical climate security data gathering on the direct relationship and intersectionality between climate and security. The following are the key takeaways to consider under the evidence pillar: • Improving the evidence base on climate, conflict, migration and gender is essential to respond to the challenges now and ahead. Both quantitative and qualitative data is required to develop policies that build preventative measures as well as plans to tackle immediate shocks. • Data will strengthen decision-making processes around climate and peace, enabling a more integrated approach to security. Evidence will aid in understanding the pathways for how climate interacts with the national security landscape, enabling a targeted response to climate-related insecurity • Recognise local level solutions and community voices in the analysis of risks and the decision- making process to respond to specific challenges communities are facing through compounding risks of climate and conflict. Include the views of local communities in developing climate adaptation and mitigation policies. Zimbabwe has been significantly affected by climate variability and change ranging from effects of tropical cyclones and a prolonged period of drought and water scarcity. The prolonged periods of droughts and water scarcity has led into crop failure and redundancy in the agricultural sector is forcing farmers to abandon to abandon farming and migrate elsewhere or engage in maladaptive strategies, such as artisanal mining, which leads to further contamination of water sources and land degradation. This negatively impacts food, land and water systems with compounded effects on the health outcomes of humans as well as animals/. health. These climate-driven transformations are combining with pre-existing political and economic instability and generating new social dynamics that may impact negatively on social cohesion and stability of Zimbabwe. There is a need for a multi-sectoral intervention that addresses the current climate-driven humanitarian and development crisis in Zimbabwe. Adequate response to the compounded challenges posed by link between the impacts of climate change, social tension and peace dynamics would only be possible when a strong evidence base is established through multi-sectoral actions that leverage on the strengths of different partners to develop more comprehensive and integrated systems that are resilient to climate change. This calls for approaches where policy makers, researchers, humanitarian, development, and peace communities work together to address and solve compounding impacts of climate change in a coordinated manner. During the workshop, there was a consensus among all stakeholders that working in silos and compartmentalising efforts to address the compounded impacts of climate change was a barrier to more holistic and integrated solutions for resilience building and sustainable development in Zimbabwe. To achieve a better alignment of humanitarian, development and peace strategies, actions need to start from a common understanding of the pathways through which climate change can combine with and reinforce displacement and fragility patterns to negatively affect peace and security outcomes. Four main pathways of interaction were identified, outlining the possible dynamics of interlinkages between impacts of climate change, conflict and displacement in Zimbabwe. Firstly, it was established that extreme climate events, such as cyclones and floods, have negatively affected food, land and water systems reduces agricultural production resulting in loss of jobs and livelihoods, and causing food and nutritional insecurity. Secondly, the impacts of climate change can increase competition over resources like water and land, which can lead to violent conflicts, if not well managed. Thirdly, extreme weather such as floods and cyclones often lead to large displacements and fourthly, the impacts of climate change may reinforce negative coping strategies such as deforestation, artisanal mining and sand harvesting among vulnerable groups. While these pathways may unfold differently across different contexts and social scales, evidence from the existing literature and group discussions during the workshop revealed that each pathway contains a set of unique but overlapping drivers that help us understand how climate change is making the development and peace and security landscape in Zimbabwe more complex and intractable. Another key takeaway from the workshop is that there is strong complementarity and synergies that exist between transforming conflict systems and addressing the root causes of climate change vulnerability, such as poverty, socio-economic and gender inequality, as well as governance challenges. Engagements at the workshop highlighted the need for a coordinated and holistic approach to addressing the intersecting challenges of climate change, peace, 26 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE Conclusion and recommendations security, and migration in Zimbabwe. It was unanimously agreed up that promoting more resilient, inclusive and peaceful societies was the best alternative to challenging harmful power dynamics and entrenched patterns of exclusion and marginalization that expose populations to any form of shock, be it climatic or conflict. This requires fostering collaboration and partnerships around climate, peace and security through relevant multi-stakeholder platforms within different levels of regional, national and sub-national work and between international, governmental and nongovernmental actors to address the multidimensional challenges of climate security. The workshop also recognised the importance of prioritizinglocal-level solutions and community voices in decision-making and ensure localized solutions that respond to specific climate security related challenges are put in place in Zimbabwe. Additionally, this report notes the importance of promoting inclusive and participatory approaches as a precursor to prioritize the needs and rights of vulnerable populations, including women, children, and marginalized communities whilst at the same time recognizing that they are more than mere victims in the current crisis but instead, they are critical players in resolving the crisis. 27Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE PH O TO : J . C AI R N S / C IM M YT 28 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE References Brown, D., Chanakira, R. R., Chatiza, K., Dhliwayo, M., Dodman, D., Masiiwa, M., Muchadenyika, D., Mugabe, P., & Zvigadza, S. (2012). Climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Zimbabwe. International Institute for Environment and Development. Chinyoka, S., Steeneveld, G.J. (2023). Evaluation of downscaling seasonal climate forecasts for crop yield forecasting in Zimbabwe, Climate Services 30, 100380. DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100380. Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store (2021): CMIP6 climate projections. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). DOI: 10.24381/cds.c866074c. Ebhuoma, E.E. (2022). Factors Undermining the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts Among Farmers in South Africa and Zimbabwe: Implications for the 1st and 2nd Sustainable Development Goals. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 207. DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2022.761195 Engelbrecht, F. et al., 2015. Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation. Environmental Research Letters, 10(8), 085004, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/085004. FEWS NET. (2024). 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Nyahunda L., Mathew, T. H., & Shyleen, C. (2021). Migration as a Determinant for Climate Change Adaptation: Implications on Rural Women in Muzarabani communities, Zimbabwe. In Handbook of Climate Change Management: Research, Leadership, Transformation (pp. 2435–2457). Springer. Mamombe, Vimbai, W. Kim, and Yong-Sang Choi. Rainfall variability over Zimbabwe and its relation to large-scale atmosphere–ocean processes. Int J Climatol 37.2 (2017): 963-971. Manatsa, D., Mushore, T., Gwitira, I., Wuta, M., Chemura, A., Shekede, M., Mugandani, R., Sakala, L., Ali, L., & Masukwedza, G. (2020). Revision of Zimbabwe’s agro-ecological zones. Harare, Zimbabwe: Government of Zimbabwe. Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry. (2020). Zimbabwe’s First Biennial Update Report 2020. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Zimbabwe%20Biennial%20Update%20Report%201.pdf. Mtapuri, O., Dube, E., & Matunhu, J. (2018). 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Sibanda, S., Grab, S. & Ahmed, F. (2020). Long-term rainfall characteristics in the Mzingwane catchment of south-western Zimbabwe. Theor Appl Climatol 139, 935–948. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03020-6. The World Bank Group. (2024). 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Weinreb, A., Stecklov, G., & Arslan, A. (2020). Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age-and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Environment, 42, 219–254. World Food Program (2024). Zimbabwe - Food Security and Markets Monitoring Report, March 2024. https://docs.wfp. org/api/documents/WFP-0000158212/download/. Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency. (2021). Zimbabwe Population Census 2020 report. https://www.zimstat.co.zw/ 1. Chagutah, T. (2010). Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Preparedness in Southern Africa: Zimbabwe Country Report. Heinrich Böll Stiftung. 2. Chanza, N., & De Wit, A. (2016). Enhancing climate governance through indigenous knowledge: Case in sustainability science. South African Journal of Science, 112(3-4), 1-7. 3. Dube, T., Moyo, P., Ncube, M., & Nyathi, D. (2013). Climate change and potential impacts on agriculture in Zimbabwe. Journal of Environmental Science and Health, Part A, 48(4), 369-375. 4. Government of Zimbabwe. (2014). Zimbabwe National Climate Change Response Strategy. Harare: Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate. 5. IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 6. Mupakati, L., & Chipindu, B. (2016). Assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on crop production in Zimbabwe. African Crop Science Journal, 24(1), 83-90. https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000158212/download/ https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000158212/download/ https://www.zimstat.co.zw/ 30 Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE ANNEX 1: Workshop participants 1. The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD) 2. Pahkanda National Youth Oryxes Foundation 3. Ecumenical Church Leaders Forum (ECLF) 4. The Future of Hope Foundation 5. Green Governance Zimbabwe 6. Mutasa Youth Forum (MNF) 7. The International Organization for Migration(IOM Zimbabwe) 8. Center for Disability and Development 9. Hope for a Child in Christ (HOCIC) 10. The Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace in Zimbabwe (CCJPZ) 11. University of Zimbabwe 12. CRD-ARISS - Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Climate and Rural Resettlement 13. African Risk Capacity (ARC) 14. Action Aid 15. Southern Africa Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict(SAPPC) 16. The SADC Regional Peacekeeping Training Centre (SADC RPTC) 17. Ministry of Defence 18. Zimbabwe Gender Commission (ZGC) 19. Dept. of Civil Protection 20. 4-H Zimbabwe 21. Sprout Women Empowerment Trust 22. Methodist Development and Relief Agency (MeDRA) 23. Ministry of Women Affairs, Community, Small and Medium Enterprises 24. Climate Change Managemenet Department (CCMD) 25. National Peace and Reconciliation Commission 26. Zimbabwe Youth Council (ZYC) 27. International Water Management Institute 28. Legal Resources Foundation 29. Young Volunteers For the Environment Zimbabwe 30. Catholic Agency For Overseas Development 31. Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC) 32. Zimbabwe Young Farmers Association for Sustainable Development(ZIYFA-SD) 33. The Ministry of Transport and Infrastructural Development 34. The Research Council of Zimbabwe (RCZ) 35. Community Capacity Building Initiative Centre for Africa -CCBICA- Zimbawe 36. Catholic Relief Service 37. FBC Holdings Limited (FBCH) 38. Zimbabwe Environmental Law Association – ZELA 39. ICRISAT 40. The Department of Civil Protection (DCP), Ministry of Local Government & Public Works. 41. The Ecumenical Church Leaders Forum (ECLF) 42. Refugee Coalition for Climate Action (RCCA) 31Towards a Common Vision of Climate, Peace, Security and Migration ZIMBABWE ANNEX 2: Pictures - Ibukun www.climatesecurity.cgiar.org http://www.climatesecurity.cgiar.org