Theory of change for the dairy value chains in Nepal developed for the CGIAR Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods Science Program November 2025 Report Contents | Page 1 of 21 CGIAR Contents THE SAAF SCIENCE PROGRAM 3 CONTEXT 3 THE DAIRY VALUE CHAIN IN NEPAL 3 SAPLING TO SAAF 4 THEORY OF CHANGE 5 OVERVIEW 5 THE CO-DESIGNING WORKSHOP 5 WORKSHOP OUTPUTS 6 THEORY OF CHANGE FOR THE DAIRY CATTLE AND BUFFALO VALUE CHAIN IN NEPAL 6 NEXT STEPS 10 REFERENCES 10 ANNEX 1. TOC WORKSHOP RESULTS TABLES 11 AOW 1 PRODUCTIVITY+ 11 AOW 2 CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT 12 AOW 3 ONE HEALTH 14 AOW 4 MARKET SYSTEMS 16 AOW 5 GESI 18 ANNEX 2. ELEMENTS INCLUDED IN THE TOC 20 CGIAR Contents | Page 2 of 21 Authors: Padmakumar Varijakshapanicker1, Karen Marshall1, Julie Ojango1, Chris Jones1, Fred Unger1, Elizaphan James Oburu Rao1, Nils Teufel1, Isabelle Baltenweck1, Ijudai Jasada1, Ram Dhulipala1, Yanamani Nepal1, Dhruba Acharya2 and Mahesh Jaisi3 1 International Livestock Research Institute 2 Management consultant 3 Tribhuvan University Suggested citation: Varijakshapanicker, P., Marshall, K., Ojango, J., Jones, C., Unger, F., Rao, E.J.O., Teufel, N., Baltenweck, I., Jasada, I., Dhulipala, R., Nepal, Y., Acharya, D. and Jaisi, M. 2025. Theory of change for the dairy value chains in Nepal developed for the CGIAR Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods Science Program. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. Cover photo: Nils Teufel / ILRI. Copyright: © 2025. ILRI. This publication is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). To view this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. Disclaimers: This publication has been prepared as an output of the CGIAR Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods (SAAF) Science Program. Any views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by the CGIAR System Organization. Acknowledgements: This work was conducted as part of the CGIAR Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods (SAAF) Science Program. CGIAR research is supported by contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future dedicated to transforming food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. https://www.cgiar.org/funders/ Contents | Page 3 of 21 CGIAR The SAAF Science Program The CGIAR Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods (SAAF) Program is a CGIAR science program focusing on improving the lives and well-being of people in low-and middle-income countries by sustainably transforming animal and aquatic food systems, so they foster inclusive, healthy, and nutrient-dense food supply chains that are climate- and environmentally friendly. The science program is working in seventeen countries located in East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda), West Africa (Mali, Nigeria and Ghana), North Africa (Egypt) Southern Africa (Zambia), Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia) and South Asia (Nepal, India and Bangladesh) and Latin America (Colombia and Guatemala). Context The dairy value chain in Nepal Dairy, including cattle and buffaloes, is an important sector in Nepal considering its livelihood impact, poverty reduction potential, employment prospective and contribution to national GDP. Almost all farming households possess livestock species of one or the other and they play a key role in household subsistence and nutrition. The sector provides employment for 130,000 people and the contribution of the dairy sector to agricultural GDP is 33% and to national GDP is 9% (CASA 2020). Women generally take care of the dairy animals, and they spend substantial amount of time in feeding and managing them. Apart from the animal keepers the other main actors in the dairy sector are milk collection centers, processors, input suppliers and retail outlets. There are 7.3 million cattle (1 million milking) and 5.3 million buffalo (1.5 million milking) in Nepal. Out of the milk producers keeping buffalo about 33% have crossbreds (NDDB 2020). Buffalo remains the most important species for milk production in Nepal. Conventionally dairy buffalo and cows are kept under subsistence farming system. Adhikari et al. (2017) reports that majority farmers in Nepal prefer buffalo enterprise over cattle due to their multiple utility, lower risk and hardy nature against stresses. Low productivity of dairy animals, especially buffalo compared to neighboring countries is the number one limiting factor in the development and expansion of Nepal’s dairy sector (CASA 2020). The productivity of local cows is 737 kg per year whereas it is 2500 kg/year in the case of crossbreds (global average is 2699 kg /year). Productivity of native buffalo breeds is only about 900 lit/lactation, while Murrah and cross bred buffaloes produce about 1,500 lit/lactation, which is still far behind the potential productivity of 2300 lit (Adhikari et al., 2017)). Out of the total milk produced almost 65% currently come from 1.5 million dairy buffaloes (CASA 2020). The livestock Census (MoALD 2020) shows that buffalo population is increasing by 1.28% per year. Though at present the share of cross breeds in the buffalo population is higher (26%) than with cattle (13%), the number of cross bred cattle is increasing faster. So, there is ample scope for improving productivity of buffaloes in Nepal and buffalo rearing has implications on poverty reduction as many of the outputs of buffalo production systems in the small farming systems in the rural areas lead to household food security (Rasali 2015). Unfortunately, less efforts have been focused in the past on buffalo improvement compared to cattle (Rasali 2017; Devkota 2017). As farmers also face barriers to investing in technologies, such as lack of access to credit, inputs and output services, most of them are still following traditional husbandry practices. Due to rapid increase in the demand for dairy products there is great scope for improving the dairy sector in Nepal. According to Nirmal et al. (2017) the important way forward to increase productivity and utilization of dairy animals in Nepal is genetic interventions, nutritional supplementation and product diversification. There is also a need for technical intervention to shorten the calving interval. The buffalo genetics adapted to local environment has to be improved along with artificial insemination-based delivery systems. Rasali (2017) suggested interbreeding of exotic blood types with the indigenous mixed stock and supported it with improved production management, improved reproductive performance, adequate veterinary care and marketing as a potential strategy for the development of composite breed types. As in most livestock production systems, feed represents the main cost, around 50%-60% of the production cost (CASA 2020). Therefore, profitability can most effectively be increased by reducing feed costs, for instance through forage-based feeding of improving crop residues. Currently, only very few fodder crops are included in common cropping pattern and crop residues are rarely even chopped, limiting the availability of high-quality on-farm feeds, resulting in a high cost of feeding. Other limitations require direct policy attention. The Dairy Development Policy (Government of Nepal 2007) is the most relevant policy relating to the development of the dairy sector. The government has taken measures to CGIAR Contents | Page 4 of 21 influence the milk price, resulting in some unintended challenging consequences. On the other hand, there is no control on prices of inputs and services. The cost of treatment, for instance, is especially high. In addition, there is lack of sufficient knowledge and skills on modern dairy husbandry among most stakeholders of the dairy value chain. On the processing side there is shortage of manpower (NDDB 2020). Many dairy processing units are still using old technologies for processing milk and milk products. Though product diversification can improve profitability, the low quality of raw milk, lack of qualified technical staff for product development and lack of market assessment have proven to be serious constraints. SAPLING to SAAF For the past 3 years, ILRI has been implementing the SAPLING (Sustainable Animal Productivity for Livelihoods, Income, Nutrition and Gender inclusion) initiative in Nepal, focusing on the dairy buffalo value chain, which produced substantial results at household level. For instance, qualitative results regarding innovative technologies, such as rice straw processing, are documented here, while the dissemination of integrated livestock solutions (here) indicate considerable potential for dairy productivity improvements. The roll-out of the Village Livestock Promoter (VLP) approach during the SAPLING initiative and its results are presented here, while the resulting uptake of solutions by beneficiary farmers is documented here. Independently, exploratory discussions with provincial governments and private partners identified opportunities for disseminating the promoted technology bundles and establishing VLPs beyond the 6 SAPLING engagement districts. This resulted in considerable investments, documented here. Now this initiative has been integrated into the new CGIAR Science Program on Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods (SAAF) program, keeping most SAPLING program components intact. The SAAF program is envisaged to be implemented in 17 countries globally including Nepal from 2025 to 2030. Through six Areas of Work, interlinked into a global strategy, SAAF and national stakeholders will continue to co-develop and scale tailored innovations that boost productivity, strengthen market systems, and improve resilience. By collaborating with diverse partners, cutting-edge research, data-driven insights, and local engagement will enable transformative policies and drive sustainable, long-term impact for communities and stakeholders across food systems. SAAF value chain and sites in Nepal Within the SAAF program in Nepal, dairy remains the target value chain but now includes both cattle and buffaloes. To ensure continuity and convergence, the SAAF program will be mainly implemented in districts where SAPLING was piloted and is currently being scaled, mainly in the lowland (terai) regions, but also including some hill sites. The selected districts are located in the provinces of Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Lumbini and Sudhur Pashchim. Key value chain research questions: The research questions that will be addressed in the dairy value chain in Nepal comprise of: 1. How to expedite genetic improvement program for faster genetic gain? 2. Which approaches /technologies can improve availability and quality of feeds at affordable cost? 3. What approaches can be used to reduce the burden of infectious and nutrition related infertility? 4. How to improve knowledge on least-cost balanced ration formulation? 5. What policy options are available to allow milk pricing to support long-term dairy development? What are the challenges and opportunities of developing gender, youth and socially friendly ICT in the dairy industry and what could be women and youth led innovations in enhancing the performance of the dairy value chain? These questions are well aligned with the overall SAAF research questions, tailored to Nepal dairy value chains. Key partners: The SAAF program in Nepal closely collaborate with the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD), the Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC), the Agriculture and Forestry University (AFU), the Department of Livestock services (DLS), the Nepal Dairy Development Board (NDDB), the Provincial Ministries, local governments, Heifer Nepal, Shreenagar Agro Industries Limited (SAIL), Maharanijhoda SFAC and Nutri Silage Research Farm. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169419 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141902 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148840 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/172501 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/172615 Contents | Page 5 of 21 CGIAR Theory of change Overview SAAF builds on integrated innovation packages—combinations of technologies, processes, capacity development, and enabling conditions—tailored to specific contexts. These packages target interrelated opportunities and constraints to achieve scalable, sustainable transformation. Theories of change (ToCs) are developed at site-level to show how outputs from the 6 AoWs converge into innovation packages that generate outcomes on the ground. These ToCs are co-developed with stakeholders and regularly reviewed as part of MELIA (Monitoring, Evaluation, Learning and Impact Assessment). The co-designing workshop The co-designing workshop was conducted during 13-14/05/2025 in Kathmandu, Nepal and was attended by stakeholders from different sectors and organizations (https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176236). It aimed at prioritizing research and development issues for the dairy value chain in Nepal and then developing the Theory of Change (ToC) for SAAF Nepal to formally outline the expected change process. The participants were divided into 5 groups according to their expertise and interest by the 5 Areas of Work (AoW) in SAAF and represented at the workshop: Productivity+, Climate and the Environment, One Health, Market Systems and GESI, AoW 6, digital tools, is not represented in Nepal. These groups carried out three rounds of group work. In the first group work, the members identified (i) issues /challenges /opportunities in the livestock sector; (ii) research questions to address them; (iii) researchable areas where CGIAR has comparative advantage; and then (iv) prioritized 2-3 research areas with justification. The second group exercise focused on developing elements of the SAAF Theory of Change, building on the discussions in the first group work. It focused on developing problem statement on the prioritized research areas/ research questions, long-term vision and long-term outcomes (achievable in 10 years) and short term (achievable in 3 years) outcomes to achieve the vision. The third group work was on designing Innovation Packages. The group members identified specific innovations, innovation enablers and innovation packages that can produce the short-term outcomes already identified, followed by activities to achieve the innovation packages. This led to development of the Theory of Change for the cattle and buffalo dairy value chain in Nepal. Finally, after the group work, the participants discussed various further elements of their Theories of Change in greater detail: • Actors: all relevant actors in the local area must get engaged in the SAAF activities. Local government, provincial government and federal government must get involved in a coordinated way for a sustainable change. Private sector engagement and collaboration is also equally important. • Risk and assumptions: There is no program without risks and assumptions. Therefore, it is good to be aware about these. Risk preparation and preparedness is important after diagnosis of assumptions and risks. • Indicators: What will indicate a successful implementation of the program’s various stages? How will outcomes, the changes brought about by the program, be documented? • Measurement: How will the indicators be measured? How will changes be determined and can these changes be attributed to program interventions? This led to the discussion how the Theory of Change results will be used. These are the main points that came up: • Review result structures • Consult with partners • Consolidate into single document and develop SAAF Nepal dairy VC ToC • Adjust ToC and work plan for consistency https://hdl.handle.net/10568/176236 CGIAR Contents | Page 6 of 21 • Develop plan for monitoring, evaluation, learning and impact assessment (MELIA) Regarding the last point, the development of a MELIA plan, the following components and specifics were formulated: • Theory of Change for monitoring evaluation learning impact assessment • Monitoring plan • Activities • Outputs • Partner engagement • Adoption of innovation packages • Project evaluation • Based on monitoring • Regular reviews • Learning • Qualitative assessment of outcomes • Active engagement with partners to assess stakeholders’ feedback • Interpretation of results • Improvements to intervention based on other scaling constraints • Comparison with similar activities within Nepal and in other countries • Impact assessment • Identify opportunities for efficient but rigorous impact assessment • Formulate specific hypotheses about expected changes (who, how, what and how much) • Ensure identification of casual effect • Be clear about mechanism and external validity Workshop outputs The results of the group work sessions were collated into tables, resulting in one table per AoW group and group work session. The are included in Annex 1. Subsequently, these outputs were reviewed by an internal team and used to develop the SAAF Theory of Change for the dairy value chain in Nepal. Theory of change for the dairy cattle and buffalo value chain in Nepal Results of the co-designing workshop were reviewed by an internal team and assessed by reviewing successful pilot activities and by evaluating them against four parameters: (1) resource efficiency (2) proven or potential availability of efficient partners (3) positive experiences and (4) the current scaling stage. This exercise led to the identification of the following innovations in three Areas of Work (Productivity+, Market systems and GESI) for initial implementation in Nepal to generate the intended outcomes in the dairy cattle and buffalo value chain: 1. Productivity+: Delivery of tested integrated technologies for sustainable productivity growth Contents | Page 7 of 21 CGIAR 2. Market systems: Dissemination of knowledge as well as delivery of inputs and services through private sector engagement 3. GESI: Promotion of inclusiveness as mandatory criteria (e.g. by quota) in all interventions along the dairy value chain leading to increased decent work for women and youth. Figure 1: Theory of change for the dairy value chain in Nepal showing innovation packages (IP), short- term outcomes (SO), and long-term outcomes (LO) in boxes Figure 1 presents the ToC of the cattle and buffalo value chain in Nepal. It contains 3 sub-pathways, multi- institutional partnerships to improve animal productivity (1); private sector delivery of knowledge, inputs and services (2); decent work for women and youth in the dairy value chain through mandatory inclusion (3). While the three pathways are mutually reinforcing, especially in the longer run, it is useful to describe them separately to make it clear how SAAF expects early interactions and outcomes to occur. Further details about innovations and enabling elements within each innovation package are given in boxed text. The first sub-pathway is based on integrated technologies for livestock productivity. This includes a) participatory breeding, b) genomic selection, c) digital platform based integrated nutrition package, d) biological and other treatments of dry roughages, e) infertility screening technology. The immediate outcomes in this pathway include establishing appropriate genetic improvement programs, dairy farmers accessing and using integrated nutrition packages that include nutrient dense forage varieties and crop residues upgraded through innovative processing technologies, and dairy farmers also using early-stage reproduction assessments and interventions. The main assumptions underlying this pathway include effective transitioning of performance recording from the existing system to AADGG by national partners, willingness of cooperatives to support the establishment of VLP- led Integrated Livestock Solutions (ILS) centers in their coops, the availability of qualified youth and their interest to set up ILS centers independently or as part of their cooperatives, interest of farmer groups in commercial seed production of improved forages, a conducive policy environment and incentives for private sector investment in feed processing technologies. The second sub-pathway provides a private sector driven system of knowledge dissemination as well as delivery of inputs and services based on Village Livestock Promoters (VLPs). The immediate outcomes in this pathway include an established national dialogue on benefits and requirements of rolling-out the VLP model, firm budgetary commitments by provincial governments to include VLP trainings in their livestock development budgets, the expansion of the VLP model into more provinces and with more diverse VLP-hosting organizations, the implementation of the scaling model based on a well-defined package of guidelines, processes and tools, the diversification of VLP candidates, including women, and of the portfolio of services and inputs provided by VLPs. www.cgiar.org SAAF Theory Of Change for Dairy Value Chain in Nepal 1 RESEARCH QUESTIONS INNOVATION PACKAGES SHORT TERM OUTCOMES LONG TERM OUTCOMES AoW1.0: Multi-institutional partnership to improve dairy animal productivity using integrated genetic, feed & fertility management technologies by capacitated professionals, technicians and farmers AoW4.1: Knowledge dissemination, input and service delivery through private sector engagement AoW5.1: Ensuring decent work for women in animal farming and product processing 1.Appropriate genetic improvement prog in place (RQ1), digitally aided integrated nutrition package,nutrient dense forage varieties and technologies for upgradation of low quality feeds are available (RQ2), infertility reduced from the current 20% to 10% (RQ3) and service providers improved their capacity in providing quality inputs and services (RQ1,2,3) 2. Efficient knowledge, input and service delivery models available for scaling 4. Better understanding of gender roles among dairy value chain actors, equitable participation of men and women farmers in all dairy value chain activities including ICT and entrepre. in inputs and value added products (RQ6,7). 1. By 2035 dairy cattle productivity increased by 50% from the current 3000 lit for CBs and that by 30% in buffalo from current 1800 l/lactation 2. Feed cost /l milk reduced by 20% from the base line 3. >50% of male and female farmers started availing the service of public private input/service delivery agents 5. Households maintained sustainable livelihoods from dairy value chain activities with inclusive roles of family members. AoW1: Productivity+ AoW4: Market systems AoW5: GESI ☞How to expedite gen. improv. prog. for faster genetic gain? (RQ1) ☞Which approaches /tech can improve avail and quality of feed at affordable cost? (RQ2) ☞What approaches can be used to reduce burden of infectious and nutrition related infertility (RQ3) ☞How to improve knowledge on least-cost balanced ration from forages and concentrates (RQ4) ☞What policy options are available to allow milk price to decrease during flush season (RQ5) ☞What is the difference in enterprise performance due to differentiated gender roles, what are the roles and performance of GESI in dairy enterprises across different agri-ecological zones? (RQ6) ☞What are the challenges and opportunities of developing GESI- friendly ICT in the dairy industry and what could be the women and youth led innovations in enhancing the performance of the dairy value chain? (RQ7) CGIAR Contents | Page 8 of 21 The main assumptions underlying this pathway include the continued political support of the VLP model at national and provincial levels as well as the availability of funds for further roll-out; the interest and willingness of more and capable VLP-hosting organizations to support the establishment of VLP businesses through access to members and customers; the attractiveness of the VLP business, based on the value-added provided to dairy farmers leading to growing incomes of VLPs; benefits to dairy farmers being realized through productivity increases based on the advice as well as novel inputs and services provided by the VLPs, resulting in increased dairy incomes and strengthened livelihoods. All this relies on stable, undistorted and growing dairy markets The third sub-pathway focuses on ensuring a decent work for women and youth in livestock farming, product processing and marketing. The short-term outcomes include better understanding of dairy value chain actors regarding gender roles and values, equitable participation of women and men in dairy value chain activities through the adoption of mandatory employment criteria, increased application of digital platforms and online services by women and improved involvement of women in value added dairy product making and feed processing activities. The main assumptions underlying this pathway include the support of value chain actors in promoting equitable development, the availability of quality time for women to actively participate in non-traditional dairy value chain businesses and ICT activities, and the required policy and investment support for strengthening women entrepreneurship. IP1 Integrated technologies for livestock productivity. • Components of the package comprise: • participatory breeding • genomic selection • digital advisory platform based integrated nutrition package • biological and other treatments of dry roughages by private sector • infertility screening technology • The above technical components will be delivered to farmers as an integrated technology package through farmer-based organizations (cooperatives), which will act as a support or delivery system for better adoption of the technology package at the ground level. This delivery system consists of enablers such as capacity building, input supply and service delivery through village-based livestock promoters, who are independent service delivery agents who work on a business mode (see IP2 -Pvt sector delivery of knowledge, inputs and services). • Activities include strengthening of AI and performance recording, capacity development for genomic analysis, use of digital feed advisory tool for targeted milk production, introduction of nutrient dense forages, collaboration with private feed industries for production and marketing of upgraded crop residues and infertility screening and implementation of infertility treatment packages. • There will be functional collaboration with research institutes (NARC), Universities (AFU) and government at Provincial and local levels for technology upgradation and its delivery. Contents | Page 9 of 21 CGIAR IP2: Private sector delivery of knowledge, inputs and services • Components of the package, including relevant activities, outputs and outcomes: • Promotion of the scaling model and policy development • Conduct a national dialogue with relevant stakeholders representing all levels of government as well as private and development actors, promoting and reviewing Village Livestock Promoters and the scaling model (Integrated Livestock Solutions Business Model, ILSBM). • Involve in provincial budget discussions to ensure funding for the ILSBM is included. • Expansion into new areas and partnerships • Expand the number of provinces providing establishment of VLPs through ILSBM. • Expand the types of organizations hosting VLPs, such as other co-operatives, private dairies, agro-vets, local governments. • Packaging of scaling model • Improve and expand the training of trainers and their certification. • Improve monitoring and documentation of the roll-out of VLPs • Improve and further disseminate the digital tools with which VLPs support farmers and develop their own businesses. • Diversification • Diversify the candidates for VLP training to include more women and marginal communities, also considering qualification requirements. • Include more business activities, such as crop residue processing, into the portfolio of activities for which VLPs are trained and which they then provide. IP3: Decent work for women and youth in the dairy value chain through mandatory inclusion • Components. of the package comprise: • Youth and women led innovations in livestock farming • Youth and women led innovations in product processing, marketing • ICT platform for inclusive dairy value chain • Enablers of the above innovations include capacity building and collaboration with extension agencies, IT technicians, dairy entrepreneurs’ associations, research stations, local government, insurance companies and banks. It will start with gender analysis to identify gendered roles, responsibilities, opportunities, and constraints (including gender norms) in the dairy cattle and buffalo value chains • Activities include knowledge and skill enhancement of women and youth on innovative technologies in dairy value chain, upskilling women for market driver entrepreneurship in feed processing and product marketing, capacity building on digital advisory tools and ensuring inclusive leadership in dairy entrepreneurs’ associations • The above is expected to create a decent work for women in livestock farming, product processing and marketing CGIAR Contents | Page 10 of 21 Next steps ToCs are living documents that should be developed and updated in response to concrete programmatic needs. This theory of change will be reviewed in collaboration with stakeholders on a regular basis, at least annually, with changes made as necessary. In particular, the ToC will be strengthened with greater detail in pathways linking innovations to outcomes, in assumptions and especially in the determination of achievements. The reflection process, changes to the ToC and reasoning behind these changes will be documented as annexes to this report. References Adhikari, R. K., Mahato, S. N. and Joshi, N. 2017. Role of buffalo for diversified enterprises development in Nepal. Proceedings of International Buffalo Symposium 2017. November 15-18. Chitwan, Nepal. CASA (Commercial Agriculture for Smallholders and Agribusiness). 2020. Dairy Sector Strategy Nepal, CASA Nepal Country Team. April 2020. www.casaprogramme.com/wp-content/uploads/CASA-Nepal-DairySector- analysis-report.pdf Devkota, B. 2017. International buffalo symposium objectives and highlights. Proceedings of International Buffalo Symposium 2017. November 15-18. Chitwan, Nepal. Government of Nepal. n.d. Dairy development policy 2064. MoALD. Marshall, K., Poole, J., Njehu, A. and Baltenweck, I. 2025. Monitoring, evaluation and learning within the CGIAR Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods (SAAF) Science Program. MoALD (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development). 2020. Statistical information on Nepalese Agriculture 2075/76 [2018/19]. Kathmandu, Nepal: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development. https://s3-ap- southeast-1.amazonaws.com/prod-gov-agriculture/server-assets/publication-1595229368881-0dc12.pdf NDDB (Nepal Dairy Development Board). 2020. Five-year dairy development plan. Consultant report by Citizen Development Solutions PVT. Ltd and Mount Digit Technology PVT. Ltd. For Nepal Dairy Development Board http://nddb.gov.np/image/data/notice/2077_78/Five%20years_Diary%20Dev_Plan_2076.pdf Nirmal, B. K., Shrestha, S. and Subedi, S. 2017. Strategy to enhance the production and productivity of buffaloes for the growth of livestock gross domestic production of Nepal. Proceedings of International Buffalo Symposium 2017. November 15-18. Chitwan, Nepal. Rasali, D.P. 2015. Sustainable Ruminant Production in Nepal. In: Sustainable Livelihoods System in Nepal: Principles, Practices and Prospects (Book). Eds.: Ambika Adhikari and Govinda Dahal. Canada Foundation for Nepal / International Union for Conservation of Nature, Nepal. pp.143-167. Rasali, D. P. 2017. Buffalo production for household food security in Nepal. Proceedings of International Buffalo Symposium 2017. November 15-18. Chitwan, Nepal. Varijakshapanicker, P., Teufel, N., Unger, F., Nepal, Y., Acharya, D. and Jaisi, M. 2025. Workshop on research prioritization and theory of change for the dairy value chain in Nepal. Nairobi, Kenya: ILRI. http://www.casaprogramme.com/wp-content/uploads/CASA-Nepal-DairySector-analysis-report.pdf http://www.casaprogramme.com/wp-content/uploads/CASA-Nepal-DairySector-analysis-report.pdf https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/prod-gov-agriculture/server-assets/publication-1595229368881-0dc12.pdf https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/prod-gov-agriculture/server-assets/publication-1595229368881-0dc12.pdf Contents | Page 11 of 21 CGIAR Annex 1. ToC workshop results tables AoW 1 Productivity+ Table 1: Productivity+; Challenges, priorities and rationale Challenges & Opportunities Research questions CGIAR strengths Rationale for prioritization -Lack of policy for promoting right breed, blood level, in different agro- ecological zones -Under nutrition of dairy animals -Lack of availability of quality feeds at reasonable price -Lack of awareness/tech knowledge -Disease prevalence (FMD, mastitis, LSD) -Insufficient access to skilled service provider -Lack of agroclimatic specific PoP -Lack of remunerative market to dispose surplus milk -Less incentive to vaccinators -Lack of user-friendly methods to prevent and detect mastitis at affordable cost -Lack of preparedness (data) 1. Which are the appropriate breed (blood level) for different ecology? 2. How to expedite genetic improvement program for faster genetic gain? (RQ1) 3. Which approaches /tech can improve availability and quality of feed at affordable cost? (RQ2) 4. How to effectively utilise locally available. feed resources at affordable cost? 5. Which feed resources should be domestically promoted for economic milk production? 6. Which are the cost effective and farmer friendly methods to detect and prevent mastitis? 7. What approaches can be used to reduce burden of infectious and nutrition related infertility (RQ3) ✔ ✔ ✔ Genetic potential is a major issue limiting productivity Limited knowledge on approaches and tech to improv quality of feed Infertility is the 2nd most important issue in dairy animals in Nepal Table 2: Productivity+; Problem statement, vision, long and short-term outcomes to achieve the vision Problem statement Vision Long term outcomes Short term outcomes 1. Dairy farmers lose their competitiveness due to lower productivity because of poor genetics (RQ1) 2. Dairy farmers failing to achieve desirable level of productivity due to lack of availability of quality feeds at affordable price (RQ2) 3. Farmers are unable and unaware of the importance and knowhow of preventing infertility due to poor nutrition and disease infection, which is highly prevalent in their area (RQ3) Dairy farmers in Nepal are engaged in profitable dairy business Dairy cattle productivity increased by 50% from the current 3000 lit /lactation for CB animals and that by 30% in buffalo from the current 1800 by 2035 1.Appropriate genetic improvement prog (including genomic analysis) in place (RQ1) 2. Capacity of farmers for improved breeding and husbandry practices enhanced (RQ1) 3. Climate resilient & nutrient dense forage varieties are available (RQ2) 4. Technologies available for upgradation of low-quality feeds (RQ2) 5. Infertility reduced from the current 20% to 10% (RQ3) 6.Service providers (inseminators, agrovets, health workers, semen producers, seed producers, feed suppliers) improved their capacity in providing quality inputs and services (RQ1,2,3) CGIAR Contents | Page 12 of 21 Table 3: Productivity+; Innovation packages and activities to achieve them Innovations Enablers Innovation packages Activities -Participatory breeding -Genomic selection -Digital platform based integrated nutrition package for targeted milk production -Nutrient dense forage varieties -Biological and other treatments of dry roughages -Infertility screening technology Functional collaboration with: -Prov and local govt (breeding) -Province & seed coops (year-round forage production) -CGIAR (feed upgradation) -NARC, DLS & AFU (mineral mapping, formulation.) -NARC, AFU, CG, Prov and Local govt (identification of genetic make-up, feeding package) -Prov govt., Uty, DLS (infertility screening and recommendation) -Three tier govt (enactment of breeding policy, capacity building of farmers, service providers and lab staff) 1. Multi-institutional partnership to improve dairy animal productivity using integrated genetic, feed and fertility management technologies by capacitated professionals, technicians and farmers 1. Strengthen AI and PPRS, capacity development. for genomic analysis (human, infra), initiation of genomic analysis with tech support from ILRI 2. Introduce integrated nutrition package using digital application with input and advisory support by private sector feed advisors /promoters 3. Introduce nutrient dense forage varieties 4. Collaborate with private feed industries for production and supply of treated dry roughages /crop residues 5. Infertility screening, infertility treatment packages 6. Performance evaluation trials (for evidence generation) and scaling AoW 2 Climate and Environment Table 4: Climate and Environment; Challenges, priorities and rationale Challenges & Opportunities Research questions CGIAR strengths Rationale for prioritization -Heat and Cold Stress – low productivity -Change in disease pattern due to vector translocation -High GHG emission due to more unproductive animals -Declining fodder availability due to lower forage/ rangeland productivity and decreased production due to natural calamities (flood, landslide) very few adaptable forage species invasive species -Indigenous breed declining -Social and economic implication 1. Which breeding, feeding and housing management system should be selected to cope with the changing environment? (RQ1) 2. Which forage species should be promoted to different climatic zones? (RQ2) ✔ ✔ Availability of digital performance recording and analysis tools for fast result Availability of various climate resilient high yielding fodder/forage species –high demand Contents | Page 13 of 21 CGIAR Table 5: Climate and Environment; Problem statement, vision, long and short-term outcomes to achieve the vision Problem statement Vision Long term outcomes Short term outcomes 1. Lower livestock productivity because of unavailability of climate adaptive breeds, region specific adaptable forage crops, increased disease outbreak due to climate change and lack of proper housing systems to cope with heat and cold stress (RQ1, RQ2) Higher livestock productivity achieved supported by adaptive breeds, forages and climate smart housing system 1. Farmers adopt climate resilient livestock breeds with better productivity 1. Farmers have knowledge about the climate resilient breeds and their management (RQ1) 2. Farmers are able to identify climate resilient traits of livestock (RQ1) 3. Enhanced capacity of farmers on climate change and its impact, resilient breeds (RQ1) 2. Farmers adopt efficient feeding practices by cultivating adaptive forage species and supplementation with feed methane mitigating additives 1. Knowledge on climate resilient forage/fodder species and package of practices of growing climate smart forage crops (legume and non-legume) (RQ2) 2. Farmers will be aware of changing the cultivation practices according to changing climate (RQ2) 3.Technical knowhow on production of forage as a seed crop (RQ2) 3. Farmers adopt climate smart housing system to manage heat and cold stress 1. Farmers are aware of suitable housing system and housing management to cope with heat and cold stress (RQ1) Table 6: Climate and Environment; Innovation packages and activities to achieve them Innovations Enablers Innovation packages Activities -Development of more heat tolerant adaptable breeds with low methane emission -Coordination among CGIAR, NARC, DLS, Universities, Provincial and Local government, breeding centres, private sectors -Animal breeding policy -Financial institutions 1. Develop solutions to produce adaptable breeds by selection and crossing, production of semen and providing it to farmers after collaboration with relevant actors 1. Animal identification and performance recording 2. Genomic analysis based on performance recording (elite performer) 3. Form bull mother nucleus herd. 4. Selection of top bulls for semen collection. 5. AI for producing cross bred animals of suitable blood level for better productivity and adaptability (less methane, more heat tolerance). 6. Training and capacity building of farmers for good trait identification. -Development of feeding package with low emission 2. Develop solutions to improve quality of crop residues, produce adaptable highly digestible and nutrient dense forage spp. and identify feed supplements with low emission after imparting knowledge in collaboration with relevant actors. 1. Identification of different adaptable varieties of nutrient dense and highly digestible forage species for different ecological zones. 2. Adaptation trial on productivity and methane mitigation capacity of different treatment methods to upgrade quality of crop residues 4. Performance and emission recording by feeding different feed composition, feed supplements (micro-nutrients, ZnSo4, NaHCo3, gypsum, bypass protein etc) and different forages mix. CGIAR Contents | Page 14 of 21 5. Recommendation, Training and dissemination of production and feeding package. AoW 3 One Health Table 7: One Health; Challenges, priorities and rationale Challenges & Opportunities Research questions CGIAR strengths Rationale for prioritization -AMR related to milk (residual and resistance), withdrawal period (opportunity: Indigenous knowledge integration, web-based monitoring system) -High priority zoonoses diseases (BTB, Brucellosis, Lepto, Toxo) (opp: Coordination between sectors and region, linked to Productivity, Sharing recourses across sectors) -Wildlife LS interfaces (free grazing) (Oppo: coordination between sectors and region) -Contamination of food chain (pesticides, chemicals), poor milk hygiene, bacteria & milk quality (water content) (opp: GHP linked to Production increase, some pilots currently expansion foreseen) -Fragmented health systems (human, animal, environmental sector exchange) -One Health at community level remains a challenge, Limited research evidence related to OH approaches, Intersectoral research on OH issues 1. How a One Health approach can support the control of Potential Zoonotic Diseases and how a better balance can be achieved between different sectors addressing OH and Strengthen AH service (VLP)? (RQ1) 2. How to understand AMU at producer level and how to identify promising intervention bundles (GHP, local knowledge, AMR replacement, probiotics)? How to address legal processes related to AMR? How can a community campaign support awareness? 3. How a community based OH intervention can improve productivity and health? 4. What CCP for potential food safety interventions and what are technical solutions to reduce contamination? ✔ Most serious issue Table 8: One Health; Problem statement, vision, long and short-term outcomes to achieve the vision Problem statement Vision Long term outcomes Short term outcomes 1. Threat from Potential Zoonotic Diseases affecting dairy production and human health (RQ1) Develop innovative strategies for early detection, risk mitigation, and policy interventions that safeguard both animal and human populations from emerging zoonotic threats in the dairy sector 1. Establishment of Integrated One Health Surveillance System: A real-time, multi-sectoral (animal-human- environment) disease monitoring network is implemented, linking dairy farms, veterinary clinics, public health labs, and environmental agencies. 1. Enhanced Knowledge & Data Sharing: Stakeholders (farmers, veterinarians, public health workers) gain a baseline understanding of major zoonotic risks in dairy systems (RQ1) 2. Multi-Sectoral Awareness & Collaboration: Key players recognize the need for One Health coordination and begin breaking down silos (RQ1). 3. Capacity Building for Early Detection & Response: Local institutions are equipped with tools and skills for zoonotic disease monitoring (RQ1). 4. Pilot Surveillance Networks in High-Risk Regions: Proof-of-concept systems Contents | Page 15 of 21 CGIAR demonstrate the feasibility of integrated surveillance (RQ1). 2.Widespread adoption of Disease Prevention & Control Measures in Dairy Systems through OH approach: Biosecurity protocols, vaccination programs, and antimicrobial stewardship become standard practice in dairy farms especially in high-risk regions. 1. Knowledge Enhancement on Zoonotic Risks & Best Practices: Dairy farmers, veterinarians, and workers understand key zoonotic diseases (Transmissions routes and risks) and prevention methods (RQ1). 2. Awareness Campaigns on One Health Benefits: Stakeholders recognize how animal health, human health and environment are interconnected and how it impacts human health and livelihoods (RQ1) 3. Capacity Building for Farm-Level Implementation: Farmers and vets gain skills to apply biosecurity and antimicrobial stewardship (RQ1). 4. Policy & Incentive Frameworks Initiated: Governments and industry begin supporting preventive measures (RQ1). 3. Policy, practice & behavioural shifts toward safer dairy practices: Local/National/international regulations and consumer awareness campaigns successfully minimize high- risk practices (e.g., raw milk consumption, poor farm hygiene). 1. Knowledge: Evidence-Based Policy Inputs: Decision-makers understand the risks of unsafe dairy practices and solutions (RQ1). 2. Awareness: Stakeholder Engagement: Farmers, consumers, and policymakers recognize their roles in reducing risks (RQ1). 3. Capacity: Regulatory & Enforcement Readiness: Institutions gain tools to implement and monitor compliance (RQ1). 4. Behavioral Nudges: Incentives & Social Proof: High-risk practices decline through community-led change (RQ1) Table 9: One Health; Innovation packages and activities to achieve them Innovations Enablers Innovation packages Activities One Health Committee Coordination among local Govt., Farmers’ Association, Professional association, stakeholders, etc. -Awareness Campaign -Align local Policy on One Health 1. Program, budget and SoP at local level for community based OH strategy implementation 1. Livestock section, Health sector, Environment sections, Local development committees, farmers association, etc. coordinate to form OH working group 2. Training, meetings, stakeholders' coordination meeting 3. One health strategy introduced to local authorities and explore to adopt at local/dairy farm level 3. Potential research related with Zoonotic diseases on OH strategy 4. Case study on diseases prevention and control strategy 5. Mechanism for community based OH disease surveillance system 6. Immediate response team including all the stakeholders CGIAR Contents | Page 16 of 21 -Standards / guidelines /regulations /best practices targeting dairy farms at local level Local Govt., incentives for best practices, market recognition, dairy farmers, dairy product processors, value chain stakeholders 2. Digital platform to share standards, guidelines etc. with farmers and community 1. Polices, practices and best behavioral skills will be formulated, approved, tested, revised if needed and finalized 2. Monitoring, evaluation and feedback mechanism related with OH among the stakeholders 3. Information and data sharing mechanism developed 4. Rapid response team formation and mobilization 5. Case study as well as awareness activities. 6. Coordination and communication with higher as well as other stakeholders. AoW 4 Market Systems Table 10: Market Systems; Challenges, priorities and rationale Challenges & Opportunities Research questions CGIAR strengths Rationale for prioritization -Open Nepal-India border -> influx of informal dairy products -Dairy processing in Nepal not competitive to India- high cost of production. -Cost of improved calves is too high -Cost of inputs is high -Market for powder milk products limited and cost is high. Consumers prefer raw milk (rather than pasteurized, standardized milk) -Variety of value-added products is still limited (chocolate) -Surplus of milk powder and butter fat in storage (INR 2 bill) -Milk value chain not trustworthy (quality, amounts) -Milk collection & distribution logistics are poor – few chilling centers -Non-traceability of products along VC -Research on market systems is very limited -Technical research results don’t reach farmers (inadequate knowledge system), especially on feed and feeding -Farmers rely on social media for information -Livestock is not sufficient as collateral for bank loans (opportunity to link with insurance) -Livestock insurance is currently not working properly (no subsidy) 1. How to improve knowledge on least-cost balanced ration from suitable forages and concentrates (RQ1) 2. Non-conventional feeds (by-products) 3. How to increase consumer acceptance 4. Most attractive additional products from powder milk (product diversification) 5. What policy options to allow milk price to decrease during flush season (RQ2) ✔ ✔ ILRI experience with ration balancing and farmer outreach Important for milk market, ILRI modelling and policy experience Contents | Page 17 of 21 CGIAR Table 11: Market Systems; Problem statement, vision, long and short-term outcomes to achieve the vision Problem statement Vision Long term outcomes Short term outcomes 1. Lack of knowledge and input availability for the formulation of least cost diet using local feed resources leads to higher feed cost (RQ 1) Dairy farming is profitable because of low production cost 1. Feed cost /l milk is reduced by 20% 1. 70% Farmers are aware of benefits of balanced ration and of least cost feed formulation (RQ1) 2. 50% of farmers feed improved and cheaper rations to their dairy animals (RQ1) 3. 20% farmers have started feeding of innovative forages and feeds (species, varieties, silage, chopping, urea treatment etc.) (RQ1) 2. Powdered milk cannot easily be sold because of consumer preferences and high cost (RQ2) Demand for milk powder products is high because of consumer preferences and affordability 1. Milk powder prices are stabilized (annual price increase limited to 5 %) 1. Powder plants buy milk mainly in flush season (RQ2) 2. Government intervention in milk market orients towards efficiency and growth (RQ2) 2. 40% consumers like powder milk for making various products 1. Government increases 20% in powder milk marketing budget (RQ2) 2. 15% consumers like powder milk products (RQ2) 3. Food processors increase their use of powder milk to 15% of their dairy needs (RQ2) 3. 50% more institutional consumers use milk powder products 1. 20% more institutional consumers use powder milk (RQ2) 2. Govt. implement awareness program targeting institutional consumers (RQ2) 3. Government policies favor increasing use of milk powder at public institutional consumers (RQ2) Table 12: Market Systems; Innovation packages and activities to achieve them Innovations Enablers Innovation packages Activities -Innovative grass and legume forage species Effective awareness, knowledge sharing and forage seed availability 1. Forage & ration platform for farmers and input & service providers (FRaP-FISP) 1. Screen suitable forage species and varieties ->recommendation sets by district and study, engage with forage seed value chain to increase availability and efficiency 2. Update ration balancing tool to include forage cultivation recommendations 3. Develop platform with multiplier stakeholders (dairy coop extensionists, LDO, agro-vets, AH technicians etc.) -SBCC tools for household and institutional consumers and milk market models for powder milk scenarios Awareness & knowledge dissemination, engagement with government for favorable policies (milk market, high-value products) 2. “The Powder Campaign” 1. Design products and approaches for awareness campaigns on milk powder 2. Combine anti-stunting campaigns with powder milk promotion in remote areas 3. Explore potential of fortification of powder milk with vitamins & minerals CGIAR Contents | Page 18 of 21 for greater nutrition impact in remote areas 4. Initiate policy dialogue on powder milk demand and competitiveness 5. Develop model for dairy market simulation to assess powder milk policy scenarios 6. Develop model for scientific milk pricing system based on production /feeding cost AoW 5 GESI Table 13: GESI; Challenges, priorities and rationale Challenges & Opportunities Research questions CGIAR strengths Rationale for prioritization -Decision making on enterprise activities (breed preference, handling of inputs and outputs, marketing activities, etc.) -Access to knowledge and skills on production, processing, and marketing (inclusion of women farmers, remote farmers, and marginalized communities) -Gender friendly tools and machines -Workload and division of labor -High risk to zoonotic disease -Social inclusion in farming and marketing of dairy products 1. What is the difference in enterprise performance due to differentiated gender roles and what are the roles and performance of GESI in dairy enterprises across different agri- ecological zones? (RQ1) 2. What are the challenges and opportunities of developing GESI- friendly ICT in the dairy industry and what could be the women and youth led innovations in enhancing the performance of the dairy value chain? (RQ2) ✔ ✔ Production activities and decision-making activities are performed by different members in family (priority in input and output markets may differ) Knowledge and skill in production, processing and marketing can promote overall dairy value chain performance Table 14: GESI; Problem statement, vision, long and short-term outcomes to achieve the vision Problem statement Vision Long term outcomes Short term outcomes 1. Exclusion of women and disadvantaged groups in the decision- making of different activities across the different nodes of the dairy value chain and GESI integration remains uneven across agri- ecological zones, leading to disparities in the dairy business performance and sustainability (RQ1). Inclusive dairy value chain strengthened with equitable participation of women and disadvantaged groups across diverse agri- ecological contexts. 1. Households maintained sustainable livelihoods from dairy value chain activities with inclusive roles of family members. 2. Dairy entrepreneurship developed among young and women farmers 1. Dairy value chain actors realized importance of joint decision making (RQ1). 2. Better understanding of gender roles and values among the dairy value chain actors (RQ1). 3. Joint participation of women and men in the decision-making of the dairy value chain activities (RQ1). 4. Equitable participation of men and women farmers in all dairy value chain activities (RQ1). 2. Women and marginalized farmers lack sufficient knowledge and skills in the dairy value chain activities (RQ2) Dairy value chain actors, including women, youth, and marginal 1. Farmers became aware of proper use of ICT in various stages of the dairy value chain. 1. Farmers show interest in ICT (RQ2) 2. Municipalities prioritize ICT in their plans (RQ2) Contents | Page 19 of 21 CGIAR groups streamlined. About 50% dairy farmers used ICT in the dairy activities. 2. Value added dairy products produced at the local level 3. Applications available for various value chain stages and online service increased (RQ2) 1. Farmers aware of value-added dairy products and their markets (RQ2) 2. Cooperatives strengthened in the diary value chain activities (RQ2) Table 15: GESI; Innovation packages and activities to achieve them Innovations Enablers Innovation packages Activities 1. Youth and women-led innovation in dairy value chain Extension agencies, local governments, dairy entrepreneurs’ associations (cooperatives), research stations, academia, private sector (insurance companies, banks) 1. Ensuring decent work for women in animal farming and product processing 1. Knowledge and skills enhancement of women and youth regarding adoption of innovative technologies in the dairy value chain 2. Farmers’ groups/cooperatives strengthening in inclusive dairy value chain 3. Ensure inclusive leadership in the dairy entrepreneurs’ associations - awareness, consultation meetings 4. Upskilling women for market driven entrepreneurship in feed processing and product making 5. Awareness and use of mass media on importance of joint roles and responsibilities in dairy value chain activities. 2. ICT platform for inclusive dairy value chain IT technicians, universities, research stations, extension agencies, local governments, dairy entrepreneurs’ associations (cooperatives) 2. Information, communication, and technology (ICT) package for promotion of inclusive dairy value chain. 1. Development of user-friendly mobile App (technology, input management, vendor list, veterinary technicians, markets, prices etc.) and sharing of informative videos on mass media 2. Aware of existing mobile Apps among marginalized and disadvantaged groups 3. Capacity building/development – hands-on trainings, exposure, GESI- focused farmer field school 4. Action research and data management 5. Monitoring, evaluation, feedback, and learning CGIAR Contents | Page 20 of 21 Annex 2. Elements included in the ToC The ToC includes three standard elements: outputs (Innovation packages), outcomes and assumptions. CGIAR defines an outcome as “a change in knowledge, skills, attitudes and/or relationships, which manifests as a change in behavior in particular actors, to which research outputs and related activities have contributed.” In these ToCs, immediate outcomes (IOs) are initial changes in things like awareness and capacity that occur among next-users of the innovation packages. Program outcomes (PO) are outcomes that occur further along the pathway and reflect changes in behavior among target actors and, in some cases, the consequences of that behavior such as increases in productivity or the value of investments. EoIs are the same across all ToCs while the immediate outcomes that lead to them are context specific. In order to see the whole VC ToC in a single diagram, multiple similar outcomes are grouped together in a single IO or EoIs. These could be unpacked in a series of nested ToCs if further detail on sub-pathways is needed. Just as Innovation packages combine innovations from different Areas of Work (AoW), IOs and EoIs combine expected outcomes of different AoWs that were specified in SAAF’s results framework1. As expected, the mapping of AoWs to ToC outcomes (IO and EOIs) is not one to one; for example, use by value chain actors of a gender-aware business model can contribute to expected outcomes of AoW5 (strategies and approaches for enhancing gender equity and social inclusion) and AoW4 (evidence and approaches for strengthening competitive and inclusive livestock value chains). In Figure 1 each IO or EoI notes the AoW outcome(s) to which it maps. Being explicit about how the different types of outcomes relate to each other is intended to facilitate use of the ToC for program-level monitoring and learning and avoid confusion and duplication. Assumptions are “hypotheses about factors or risks which could affect the progress or success of a development intervention… It is useful to distinguish between: (i) theoretical assumptions, about how the intervention is expected to contribute to a process of change based on facts, and; (ii) contextual assumptions, about current conditions and the trajectory and risks that could affect the progress or success of a development intervention.” While both types of assumptions are important, ToCs focus on key theoretical assumptions since these are the ones that programs address as part of their research programs, investing resources to understand and test them. 1 AoW outcomes that are not included are those that occur outside of value chains, for example among research partners or among scaling partners outside the target value chain. Contents | Page 21 of 21 CGIAR Contact: animal_aquatic@cgiar.org CGIAR is a global research partnership for a food-secure future. CGIAR science is dedicated to transforming food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis. Its research is carried out by 13 CGIAR Centers/Alliances in close collaboration with hundreds of partners, including national and regional research institutes, civil society organizations, academia, development organizations and the private sector. www.cgiar.org We would like to thank all funders who support this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund: www.cgiar.org/funders. To learn more about the Sustainable Animal and Aquatic Foods Program, please visit this webpage. To learn more about this and other Science Programs and Accelerators in the CGIAR Research Portfolio 2025–2030, please visit www.cgiar.org/cgiar-research-porfolio-2025-2030/ Copyright: © 2025. ILRI. This publication is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). 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