IFPRI Discussion Paper 02018 May 2021 Food Systems for Healthier Diets in Nigeria A Research Agenda Busie Maziya-Dixon, Thom Achterbosch, Delana Adelekan, Olutayo Adeyemi, Victor Ajieroh, Dare Akerele, Adebayo Akinola, Emmanuel Alamu, Siemen van Berkum, Kendra Byrd, Aafke Nijhuis, Makuachukwu Ojide, Adeyinka Onabolu, Johnson Onyibe, Ireen Raaijmakers, Folake Samuel, Harriette Snoek, Adekunle M. Yusuf, and Inge D. Brouwer CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), a CGIAR Research Center established in 1975, provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to foster a climate-resilient and sustainable food supply; promote healthy diets and nutrition for all; build inclusive and efficient markets, trade systems, and food industries; transform agricultural and rural economies; and strengthen institutions and governance. Gender is integrated in all the Institute’s work. Partnerships, communications, capacity strengthening, and data and knowledge management are essential components to translate IFPRI’s research from action to impact. The Institute’s regional and country programs play a critical role in responding to demand for food policy research and in delivering holistic support for country-led development. IFPRI collaborates with partners around the world. AUTHORS Busie Maziya-Dixon (b.maziya-dixon@cgiar.org) is a Senior Food and Nutrition Scientist at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) in Ibadan, Nigeria. She leads A4NH Country Coordination and Engagement Team in Nigeria. Thom Achterbosch (t.achterbosch@wur.nl) is a Senior Researcher in development economics at Wageningen University & Research in The Hague, The Netherlands. Delana Adelekan (d.adelekan@yahoo.com) is a Professor of Public Health Nutrition at the Federal University of Agriculture in Abeokuta, Nigeria. Olutayo Adeyemi (adeyemiolutayo@gmail.com) is an Independent Consultant, formerly of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Abuja, Nigeria. Dr. Victor Ajieroh (Victor.Ajieroh@gatesfoundation.org) is a Senior Program Officer for Nutrition at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Country Office in Abuja, Nigeria. Dare Akerele (akereled@funaab.edu.ng) is a Senior Lecturer at the Federal University of Agriculture in Abeokuta, Nigeria. Adebayo Akinola (bayokinola2013@gmail.com) is a Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at the Obafemi Awolowo University in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. Emmanuel Alamu (e.alamu@cgiar.org) is an Associate Scientist at International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Southern Africa Research and Administration Hub (SARAH) Campus PO Box 310142, Chelstone, Lusaka 10101, Zambia. Siemen van Berkum (siemen.vanberkum@wur.nl) is a Senior Researcher in agricultural economics at Wageningen University & Research in Wageningen, the Netherlands. mailto:b.maziya-dixon@cgiar.org mailto:t.achterbosch@wur.nl mailto:d.adelekan@yahoo.com mailto:adeyemiolutayo@gmail.com mailto:Victor.Ajieroh@gatesfoundation.org mailto:akereled@funaab.edu.ng mailto:bayokinola2013@gmail.com mailto:e.alamu@cgiar.org mailto:siemen.vanberkum@wur.nl Kendra Byrd (k.byrd@cgiar.org) is a Nutrition Scientist at WorldFish in Malaysia. Aafke Nijhuis is a former research assistant at Wageningen University & Research in Wageningen, the Netherlands. Makuachukwu Ojide (embracegod1@yahoo.com) is a Lecturer in the Department of Economics & Development Studies at Alex Ekwueme Federal University in Abakaliki, Nigeria. Adeyinka Onabolu (aonabolu@gainhealth.org) is a Senior Advisor on Food Security and Nutrition to the Honourable Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in Abuja, Nigeria. Johnson Onyibe (jeonyibe@yahoo.com) is a Professor of Agronomy and Director of Research and Planning at the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS) at Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria, Nigeria. Ireen Raaijmakers (ireen.raaijmakers@wur.nl) is a Senior Researcher in consumer behavior at Wageningen University & Research in The Hague, the Netherlands. Folake Samuel (samuelfolake@yahoo.co.uk) is an Associate Professor in the Department of Human Nutrition and Dietetics at the University of Ibadan in Ibadan, Nigeria. Harriette Snoek (harriette.snoek@wur.nl) is a Senior Researcher in consumer behavior at Wageningen University & Research in Wageningen, the Netherlands. Adekunle M. Yusuf (am.yusuf@cgiar.org) is a Research Associate at IITA in Ibadan, Nigeria. Inge D. Brouwer (inge.brouwer@wur.nl) is an Associate Professor in the Division of Human Nutrition and Health at Wageningen University & Research in Wageningen, the Netherlands. Notices 1 IFPRI Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results and are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. They have not been subject to a formal external review via IFPRI’s Publications Review Committee. Any opinions stated herein are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by IFPRI. 2 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the map(s) herein do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) or its partners and contributors. 3 Copyright remains with the authors. The authors are free to proceed, without further IFPRI permission, to publish this paper, or any revised version of it, in outlets such as journals, books, and other publications. mailto:k.byrd@cgiar.org mailto:embracegod1@yahoo.com mailto:aonabolu@gainhealth.org mailto:jeonyibe@yahoo.com mailto:ireen.raaijmakers@wur.nl mailto:samuelfolake@yahoo.co.uk mailto:harriette.snoek@wur.nl mailto:am.yusuf@cgiar.org mailto:inge.brouwer@wur.nl Contents ABSTRACT iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v ACRONYMS vi I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. DIET QUALITY AS AN ENTRY POINT 6 III. CONSUMER BEHAVIOR AND PURCHASING POWER 11 3.1. Introduction 11 3.2. Motivation 11 3.2.1. Cultural norm, beliefs and taboos 11 3.2.2. Product characteristics affecting food choices 12 3.2.3. Aspiration 13 3.3 Ability 13 3.3.1. Knowledge 14 3.3.2. Skills 14 3.4. Opportunity 15 3.4.1. Income/ purchasing power 15 3.4.2. Gender issues 16 3.4.3. Globalization and foreign influences 16 IV. FOOD ENVIRONMENT 18 4.1. Overview 18 4.2. Access to Markets 18 4.3. Promotion 20 4.4. Food Safety Regulations 21 4.5. Economic Access 22 V. FOOD SUPPLY SYSTEMS IN NIGERIA 24 5.1. Agricultural Production Subsystem 24 5.2. Storage, transport and trade subsystem 29 5.3. Food transformation subsystem 32 5.4. Food retail and provision subsystem 38 VI. DRIVERS OF FOOD SYSTEM CHANGE IN NIGERIA 41 6.1. Introduction 41 6.2. Indirect drivers of Nigeria’s food systems 41 6.2.1. Biophysical and environmental drivers 41 6.2.2. Demographic drivers 42 6.2.3. Economic drivers 46 6.2.4. Innovation and technology drivers 48 6.2.5. Increased infrastructure 50 6.2.6. Sociocultural drivers 51 6.2.7. Political drivers 53 VII. SYNERGIES AND TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN DIETS AND OTHER OUTCOMES OF FOOD SYSTEMS IN NIGERIA 60 VIII. SYNTHESIS AND THE WAY FORWARD: AN AGENDA FOR POLICY RESEARCH 63 Annex 1. Overview of Research Questions 75 References 78 Tables Table 1. Gaps in Demand and Supply of Major Food Products in Nigeria (2016 Estimate) ...................... 32 Table 2. Description of the Categories of Processed Foods ........................................................................ 34 Figures Figure 1. Framework of the High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Systems and Nutrition ......................... 5 Figure 2. Ecologies and Crops Produced in Nigeria .................................................................................. 25 Figure 3. Agro-ecologies and animal protein sources in Nigeria ............................................................... 26 Figure 4. Percentage of population in urban and rural areas of Nigeria ..................................................... 43 Figure 5. Urban population by size class of urban settlement in Nigeria ................................................... 44 iv ABSTRACT Malnutrition, mostly resulting from poor food, health, and care practices, is related to physiological, socioeconomic, and psychological factors and remains one of the leading causes of mortality in children under five years of age in low- and middle-income countries. Nigeria, as with many parts of the world, is experiencing a multiple malnutrition burden, where undernutrition, including micronutrient deficiencies, exists alongside overweight, obesity, and associated diet-related non-communicable diseases. Recent data show that 37 percent of children under five years of age are stunted while 68 percent suffer some degree of anaemia. Overweight and obesity are also common among adults with prevalence rate of about 33 percent. The Nigerian government embraces sustainable food system approaches in its policy and programmes to address malnutrition problems in the country. Food systems approaches take a holistic understanding of all activities and processes involved in food production, processing, storage, transportation, trade, transformation, retail, and consumption. In this paper, we identify and discuss the types of research that can support the operationalization of food systems approaches to improving the quality of diets in Nigeria. Specifically, we structured a consultative workshop with key stakeholders, reviewed the literature, and applied food systems framework to the Nigerian context. The process enabled us to identify 39 research questions crucial to: understanding how changes in food systems can lead to healthier diets; identifying and testing entry points for improving availability and effective demand for healthier food; and creating at scale a supportive policy and market environment for achieving heathier and sustainable diets in Nigeria. Keywords: food systems, diet quality, consumer behavior, food environment, food supply systems, Nigeria v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was undertaken as part of, and funded by, the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH). This paper has gone through the standard peer review procedure of A4NH’s Lead Center, IFPRI. The authors express a deep appreciation to Namukolo Covic, Olivier Ecker, and other anonymous reviewer from IFPRI for helpful review and comments. Much gratitude also goes to Janet Hodur for excellent editorial work on the paper. The inputs and contributions of different stakeholders during the workshops, meetings, and symposiums on Food Systems for Healthier Diets in Nigeria are well acknowledged. The opinions expressed here belong to the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of A4NH or CGIAR. vi ACRONYMS ACSE Abuja Securities & Commodities Exchange AFSNS Agricultural Sector Food Security and Nutrition Strategy AKIS Agriculture Knowledge and Innovation System ARC Agricultural Research Council DHS Demographic and Health Survey FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FBDG Food-based dietary guidelines FCAFH Food consumed away from home FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GHS Government Household Survey HLPE Committee on World Food Security High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Systems and Nutrition ICT Information and Communication Technologies IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development LMIC Low- and middle-income countries LSMS Living Standard Measurement Study MAO Motivation, Ability and Opportunity model MIS Market Information Service NAFDAC National Agency for Food and Drugs Administration and Control NCD Non-communicable disease NCN National Council on Nutrition NFCMS National Food Consumption and Micronutrient Survey NHGSFP National Home Garden School Feeding Program NSA Nutrition-sensitive agriculture SCPZ Staple crop producing zone SME Small- and medium-scale enterprises SON Standards Organization of Nigeria SUN Scaling Up Nutrition UN United Nations USDA United States Department of Agriculture WHO World Health Organization 1 I. INTRODUCTION According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 5.7 percent per year between 2006 and 2016 (World Bank, 2019). Despite strong economic growth over the last decade, poverty has remained significant, with increasing inequity and regional disparities. Poverty incidence rose from 27.2 percent in 1980 to 40.09 percent in 2019, with urban poverty consistently lower than rural poverty. Hence, while 18.04 percent of urban residents were considered poor in 2019, more than 52 percent of rural dwellers fell into the same category (NBS, 2020). Poverty also appears to be more prevalent in the northern part of the country, with the highest rates hovering between the north-east and north-west zones. Reports further show that a large number of Nigerians are clustered around the poverty line, suggesting that a small positive or negative shock could substantially change the poverty rate (World Bank, 2016). Malnutrition, mostly resulting from poor food, health, and care practices, is related to physiological, socioeconomic, and psychological factors and remains one of the leading causes of mortality in children under five years of age in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Children in Nigeria suffer from high rates of chronic malnutrition; in 2018, (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019) 37 percent of children under five years of age were stunted and 19 percent were severely stunted. Analysis by age groups showed that the prevalence of stunting increases with age, peaking at 47 percent among children aged 24-35 months. Severe stunting showed a similar pattern, with children aged 24-35 months having the highest proportion of severe stunting (27 percent). Also, stunting was higher in male children (40 percent) than in female children (34 percent). In addition, children in rural areas were more likely to be stunted (46 percent) than those in urban areas (27 percent), and the pattern was similar for severe stunting (26 percent in rural areas and 11 percent in urban areas). The north-west had the highest proportion of children who were stunted (60 percent), followed by the north-east (52 percent) and north central (29 percent). Only two percent of children under the age of five were overweight, while 33 percent of adults are overweight or obese. For micronutrient deficiency, in 2018, 68 percent of children suffered some degree of anaemia, with 2 27 percent mildly anaemic, 38 percent moderately anaemic and three percent severely anaemic. This was higher among children residing in the rural areas (73 percent) than among those in the urban areas (62 percent). About 47 percent of non-pregnant women of reproductive age were anaemic and 31 percent were iodine deficient (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019). Nigeria is also witnessing a significant rise in the incidence of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs): the prevalence of overweight/obesity, and type II diabetes in adults was 33.3 percent and 7.9 percent respectively (NPC(National Population Commission) and ICF International, 2014). Diet-related NCDs are increasingly becoming the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. They encompass a cluster of illnesses which include diabetes mellitus, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, cardiovascular disease, and musculoskeletal disorders. The impact of NCDs is great on the poor countries of sub-Saharan Africa, among which Nigeria occupies a significant position. NCDs in Nigeria accounted for an estimated 28 percent of all mortality in 2008. The most prevalent NCDs in Nigeria are cardiovascular diseases, which accounted for 12 percent of total deaths across all age groups in 2008. Cancers, non- communicable variants of respiratory diseases, and diabetes contributed four, three, and two percent, respectively, to total mortality in 2008. The number of people with type II diabetes in Nigeria is forecast to double from 3.1 million to 6.1 million between 2011 and 2030 (Development Initiatives, 2017). The Government of Nigeria has taken some strategic steps towards promoting the improvement of nutrition in Nigeria. These include the launch of the National Policy on Food and Nutrition (Ministry of Budget and National Planning, 2016) that employs a multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary program approach, including various interventions at the community as well as the national level. Among other approaches, the National Policy on Food and Nutrition includes leveraging of food systems to combat malnutrition, and is supported by the recognition of nutrition as a key impact domain for agriculture in the Agriculture Promotion Policy (the Green Alternative) (FMARD, 2016); the launch of the Agricultural Sector Food Security and Nutrition Strategy (AFSNS) 2016–2025 in 2017; and the Transformative Partnership for High Energy Nutritious 3 Foods for Africa, together with a strategic plan to support the initiative. Other critical efforts include the priority accorded to the expanded access and use of biofortified crops such as pro-vitamin A cassava and orange fleshed sweet potato, and the linking of the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme with local agriculture. Efforts likewise include the preparation of a National Strategic Plan of Action for Nutrition – Health Sector Component that built on other strategic documents, while setting targets to reduce malnutrition (Federal Miistry of Health, 2014). There is also the National Health Policy to strengthen the primary health care sub-system and address the health-related causes of malnutrition. Although reducing malnutrition and improving food systems are high on the government’s agenda, the economic burden of malnutrition, as well as economic measures necessary for addressing malnutrition (GLOPAN, 2016), have not been given sufficient priority as it is not explicitly mentioned in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan for 2017–2020 (Ministry of Budget & National Planning, 2017). While the AFSNS 2016–2025 addresses some of the priority gaps, implementing economic measures are necessary for achieving the AFSNS targets, including the enhancement of food environments for improved nutrition in Nigeria (Global Panel, 2017a; Global Panel, 2017b). Better data about the impact of economic factors on the quality of food environments in Nigeria, and the interactions with diet quality, is likewise necessary (Global Panel, 2017a). There is, therefore, an urgent need to appraise the diet, food environment, and food supply systems and create recommendations for improvement. In this paper, we identify and discuss the types of research that can support the operationalization of food system approaches to improving the quality of diets in Nigeria. To this aim, we learn from major research agenda-setting examples from Ethiopia, which employed a process documented by Pretty, et al (2010) and Lachat, et al., (2014) and applied the following methodology. First, a review of literature was performed to structure a consultative workshop with key stakeholders. Second, a consultative workshop was held to review the nature of the food systems landscape of Nigeria, identify knowledge gaps, and to guide further analysis of the literature. Using the food systems framework of the High-Level Panel of Experts (HLPE) 4 on Food Systems and Nutrition as shown in Figure 1, we identified key words for each of the dimensions of the framework, serving as input for systematic searches. Third, given the conceptual food systems framework, further literature analysis was performed, and research questions were formulated and grouped in three areas. Fourth, the findings were written up in the form of a manuscript, followed by circulation of the draft paper to key national stakeholders involved in the consultative processes to serve as a validation process. Finally, a stakeholders’ workshop was held to validate the findings and reach an agreement on the research questions. It is expected that this paper will add value to the literature by contextualizing food systems research in Nigeria, as a case study to apply global food systems thinking to a concrete setting and stimulate in- and cross-country learning. Following this introductory section, the paper is divided into seven additional sections. Sections 2 to 6 each highlight an element of the conceptual framework of food systems and nutrition depicted in Figure 1, within the Nigerian context. In Section 2, the concept of diet quality and its fundamental role in reducing malnutrition is highlighted. Section 3 describes the part consumer behavior plays in food systems, while Section 4 examines the food environments that interface between food supply systems and consumers. In Section 5, an overview of the subsystems of food supply systems is presented, and Section 6 discusses food system drivers. Section 7 identifies trade-offs and potential synergies between diets and other food system outcomes in Nigeria, and Section 8 summarizes and concludes the paper. Although identified research questions are incorporated into the sections, the paper also includes an annex that compiles the research needs. 5 Figure 1. Framework of the High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Systems and Nutrition Source: HLPE. 2017. Nutrition and Food Systems, Rome. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7846e.pdf http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7846e.pdf 6 II. DIET QUALITY AS AN ENTRY POINT Diet quality is pivotal and instrumental to healthy diets and emphasizes adequacy, diversity, moderation, and safety. Adequacy refers to meeting energy, macro, and micronutrient needs. Diversity encompasses accessing diverse foods or food groups (whole grains, fruits, vegetables, fish, meat, nuts and seeds, beans and legumes, milk, eggs, and dietary fiber) that provide the required nutrients, antioxidants, as well as taste and variety to meals. Moderation emphasizes limited consumption or avoidance of unhealthy foods, food components, or nutrients such as red or processed meat, fat (especially saturated fat), cholesterol, sugar, sugar-sweetened beverages, and sodium (Alkerwi, 2014; Herforth , et al., 2014). While there is no universal ‘diet quality index,’ there is general agreement on what a healthy or high-quality diet should include, i.e. a diversity of foods that are safe and provide levels of energy appropriate to age, sex, disease status, and physical activity as well as essential micronutrients. High-quality diets also need to be safe so they do not cause foodborne disease (GLOPAN, 2016). Food and water containing harmful bacteria, viruses, parasites, or chemical substances constitute unsafe food and are responsible for several diseases, ranging from diarrhoea to cancers. In Nigeria, multiple nutritional deficiencies exist (Research Question 1), and diet diversity is very low. In 2018, only 22.6 percent of children age 6-23 months received an appropriately diverse diet (five food groups or more). Urban infants and young children (29.0 percent) were better off than rural (18.6 percent) and an increase was seen when the education level of the mother and wealth index of the household increased (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019). Only 10.6 percent of children age 6-23 months were fed a minimum acceptable diet considering both diversity and frequency of feeding (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019). Nationally representative data on diversity of diets among women showed that just 55.6 percent of women age 15 to 49 years in 2018 met the minimum dietary diversity of at least five out of 10 food groups. The same pattern observed in children was also observed among women with urban, more educated and women from richer households having higher dietary 7 diversity (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019). Data on dietary diversity of men is not available (Research Question 2). Consumption of fruits, vegetables and animal source foods is especially low in Nigeria. The 2003 National Food Consumption and Nutrition Survey (Maziya-Dixon, et al., 2004) reported a low percentage of households consuming fruits once or twice per week (17.9 percent), leafy vegetables (12.4 percent) and non-leafy vegetables (16.3 percent). This is confirmed by more recent smaller studies (Chibuike , Okaka, & Okoli, 2013; Hart, Azubuike, Barimalaa, & Achinewhu, 2005; Adeyemi & Shittu, 2017). The 2018 DHS reported that 36.9 percent of breastfed children age 6-23 months consumed fruits and vegetables rich in vitamin A and 13.5 percent consumed other fruits and vegetables. These numbers were higher in non- breastfed children compared to breast-fed children (57.0 percent versus 25.2 percent, respectively) (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019). Fruit and vegetable consumption is region- and season-dependent, and products are eaten fresh since storage possibilities are few and great losses occur due to inadequate preservation and transport (Adegboye, Smith, Anang, & Musa, 2016). Animal source foods were consumed more than one time per week by only 11.8 percent of the population for meat, 6.8 percent for dairy products, and 7.4 percent for fish. Only 27.2 percent of breastfed children age 6-23 months consumed meat, fish, and poultry (grouped together) and 12.7 percent consumed eggs (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019). The contribution of wild foods to the Nigerian diet is considerable, especially fish from small-scale fisheries (Funge-Smith, 2018). Fish caught from streams, rivers, and the ocean provide an important animal-source food for many vulnerable populations in Nigeria, though there is room to increase both production and consumption (Kolding , Van Zwieten, Marttin, Funge-Smith, & Poulain , 2019; Selig, et al., 2018). Additionally, consumption of other wild foods has frequently been reported, not only as a coping strategy in times of food shortage (Frances & Salisu, 2003) but also as a regular part of the diet (Alamu, Amao, Nwokedi, Oke, & Lawal, 2013; Frances & Salisu, 2003). However, consumption of wild foods might be 8 underreported in food consumption surveys and the actual contribution of wild foods might be larger than reported. Street foods may also contribute significantly to dietary intake, but recent data on the contribution to diet quality are not available (Research Question 3). Street food consumption is thought to be common in Nigeria, especially in urban areas. A study from 1999 shows 63 percent (in weight) of food consumed by urban market women originated from street food (Oguntona & Tella, 1999), and a study among adolescents from 1995 shows that street foods contributed 25 percent of total energy intake (Oguntona & Kanye, 1995). Knowledge of the extent of consumption of unhealthy dietary components is limited in Nigeria (Research Question 4), although anecdotal evidence suggests an increase in intake. No nationally representative data are available, but fat intake above 30 percent of energy intake has been reported (Glew, et al., 2004). Elite, middle class, and younger people are expected to transition from a traditional little or no sugar-added diet to a Western diet, which contains high quantities of sugar and fat (Gourichon, 2013). Sugar consumption has increased in the past 10 years (Gourichon, 2013), but exact quantities consumed are not known. In 2018, 21.8 percent of women reported consuming sugar-sweetened beverages and 15.5 percent consumed sugary foods (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019). There are no data on current salt intake levels, and no studies are available that show the sources of salt in the Nigerian diet (Mezue, 2014). Furthermore, the composition of processed food consumption is changing in Nigeria. Fast food or ultra- processed food intake is increasing in Nigeria. Several studies report on consumption of processed foods, pointing to the need to differentiate consumption by the degree of processing and the locus of consumption. Analysis of Nigerian Living Standard Measurement Study (LSMS) data over five years (2010/2011, 2012/2013, and 2015/16) show a decline of about 6.8 cents per annum in consumption of unprocessed foods, while low-processed foods show the strongest positive growth of 15.4 cents per annum, over the study period (de Braw & Herskowitz, 2020). Highly-processed food is flat. However, splitting between 9 highly-processed food at home and foods consumed away from home (FCAFH), strong and opposite trends were observed. Over the five years of the study, per capita expenditures on highly-processed foods at home declined by 18 percent, while FCAFH exhibited a nearly identical opposite trend, increasing by 17 percent. The authors also observed a large increase in the consumption of low-processed foods across all income levels and geographical locations. This study finds contrasting annual growth rates between consumption of low-processed foods (15.4 percent increase per annum), highly-processed food consumed at home (18 percent decline per annum), and food consumed away from home (FCAFH) (17 percent increase per annum), adding precision to earlier work conducted by Saweda et al., (2016). Highly-processed food expenditures, consumed at home, are falling across all areas. By contrast, FCAFH shows considerable regional variation, exhibiting the most dramatic growth in both the urban and rural South. More modest increases are also evident in the urban North (though only marginally statistically significant) whereas there is no discernible trend in the rural North, potentially reflecting limited access to such foods in these areas. Fast food consumption has gradually become part of the lifestyle of Nigerians, especially those in urban centers (Akindutire & Konwea, 2013), where people are reported to be more likely to consume processed foods and foods that have high salt and fat content (Mezue, 2014). Fast foods have been shown to be a major contributor to the nutrient intake of undergraduates in Abeokuta, however, excess energy and the low intake of micronutrients from fast foods place the students at risk of malnutrition (Afolabi, Towobola, Oguntona, & Olayiwola, 2013). The safety of food is of high concern in Nigeria. Diarrhoeal diseases are responsible for 70 percent of foodborne diseases in the African Region, where non-typhoidal Salmonella, which can be caused by contaminated eggs and poultry, causes many deaths (WHO, 2003). The general state of water and sanitation facilities available to households in all wealth categories in Nigeria is very poor, with consequent health implications (Kuku-Shittu, Mathiassen, Wadhwa, Myles, & Akeem, 2013). In 2011, 45 percent of households did not have access to decent toilets, and 85 percent had no proper means of refuse disposal 10 (Kuku-Shittu, Mathiassen, Wadhwa, Myles, & Akeem, 2013). Diarrhoea prevalence was high at 12.8 percent among children under age five in the 2018 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) (National Population Commission (NPC) and ICF, 2019). Urbanisation is thought to put the urban poor at higher food safety risks (GLOPAN, 2016) but there isn’t sufficient information on the occurrence of microbial pathogens, foodborne macro parasites and toxins or chemicals in food in Nigeria, nor their impact on health outcomes (Research Question 5). One study reported a high content of aflatoxins in commercial weaning foods, hypothesising that exposure of children to aflatoxins may be high in Nigeria (Oluwafemi & Ibeh, 2011). Indeed, laboratory analyses of Nigeria core foods prepared as consumed, with food samples obtained from Lagos and Kano States, have showed considerable pesticide and mycotoxin contamination (Ingenbleek, et al., 2019a; Ingenbleek, et al., 2019b). To improve healthy eating habits of individuals and populations, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) recommend developing and implementing country-specific food-based dietary guidelines (FBDGs). Nigeria has national FBDGs, but these guidelines need urgent review and updating as they were based on resources from the 1990s (Research Question 6). As diets differ significantly across regions in Nigeria (Ene-Obong, et al., 2013; Ajani S. , 2010), adapting the FBDGs to regions, locations (urban vs rural) and target groups should be considered (Research Question 7). The need for appropriate FBDGs for healthy living is recognized in the National Policy on Food and Nutrition and the Agricultural Sector Food Security and Nutrition Strategy 2016–2025. 11 III. CONSUMER BEHAVIOR AND PURCHASING POWER 3.1. Introduction Consumer behavior defines when, why, how, what, and where consumers buy or do not buy products. A well-known framework to describe aspects related to consumer behavior is the Motivation, Ability and Opportunity (MAO) model (Olander & ThOgersen, 1995). This model (originally elaborated to analyze how to entice people to protect the environment) assumes that consumers’ behavior is determined by an interplay of motivational factors, their ability, and/or their opportunities to change their behavior (Rothschild, 1999). The MAO-model is integrated in this section. 3.2. Motivation Motivation represents the drivers of an individual’s behavior or willingness to change behavior. The motivational factors determining an individual’s behavioral incentives are the attitude toward and social norms regarding the behavior. Major factors driving motivation of consumer behavior are thus the cultural and social norms the individual is susceptible to. 3.2.1. Cultural norm, beliefs and taboos The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) Food-Care-Health conceptual framework that serves as a guide in assessing and analysing causes of malnutrition opines that cultural norms, taboos and beliefs constitute major factors affecting food intake (UNICEF, 2013). Foods avoided based on cultural taboos and religious beliefs have been reported in many communities in Nigeria; and most often apply to pregnant women and children (Oluleke, Ogunwale, Arulogun, & Adelekan, 2016; Ekwochi, et al., 2016; Sholeye, Badejo, & Jeminusi, 2014; Abidoye & Akinpelumi, 1997; Onuorah & Ayo, 2003). These restrictions and avoidances could contribute to inadequate nutrient intake, since foods that are avoided are (mainly animal- sourced) proteins and vitamin-rich foods, such as snails, grass-cutters, eggs, beans, walnuts, cassava (fufu), and plantain (Sholeye, Badejo, & Jeminusi, 2014; Onuorah & Ayo, 2003; Ekwochi, et al., 2016; Maduforo, 2010; The Nation Nigeria Newspaper, 2016). There is no empirical evidence that justifies the avoidances; rather claims can be related to the appearance of foods. For example, snails are avoided because it is 12 believed that they make babies sluggish and salivate excessively like a snail. Madufuro (2010) observes that pregnant women often hold onto the food taboos handed down from generation to generation. Other cultural beliefs are regional, rather than specific to certain groups. For example, in some areas in Southwestern Nigeria, eating dog meat is restricted, while it is seen as a delicacy in other areas (Fagbuaro, Oso, Edward, & Ogunleye, 2006; Oluleke, Ogunwale, Arulogun, & Adelekan, 2016). Next to cultural beliefs, religious beliefs affect food choice and dietary intake. Eating pig meat is forbidden in Northern Nigeria as well as among the Muslims in Southern Nigeria. Other motives are related to ideas and perceptions regarding health, mood, weight control, natural content of foods, familiarity, and ethical concerns. Urban Nigerian consumers reported that the motives – health, mood, and familiarity – were most important to them in food purchases (Raaijmakers, Snoek, Maziya- Dixon, & Achterbosch, 2018). Also, the importance attached to these motives was associated with a higher vegetable consumption. 3.2.2. Product characteristics affecting food choices Food choices are based on consumers’ perception and awareness about product attributes such as organoleptic attributes of foods, nutritional and health contents, packaging and labelling. For instance, two studies conducted in Lagos State (Akpoyomare, Adeosun, & Ganiyu, 2012; Kesinro & Oyende, 2015) indicated that consumers compare competing products and make purchases based on their perceptions of the strength of several attributes. Interestingly, the perceptions regarding some foods may change over time. This is what happened, for example, to Ofada rice, once considered as “poor man’s food” but now appreciated as a special dish. The recent preference for Ofada rice is perhaps attributable to some improvement to the product (such as removal of stones, better packaging); the perception that it is more nutritious or safer to consume than some imported/foreign rice; and the renewed interest in the need to embrace traditional foods (sense of “nationalism”; it is our own rice). More in-depth studies of such cases would reveal how consumers’ preference for diet quality in the Nigerian context could change with food 13 product attributes other than the traditional price and income changes and variation in demographic characteristics (Research Question 8). 3.2.3. Aspiration Aspiration is one of the core determinants of consumer behavior. Aspiration makes consumers act in a manner to achieve their goals (Lant, 1992). Social psychological models incorporate an individual’s aspiration as a major factor for action or behavior (Sreejesh, 2015). Aspiration tends to make consumers emulate the consumption pattern of a particular reference class to which they desire to belong (Dholakia & Talukdar, 2004). Aspirations, therefore, influence motivation, and in turn consumer behavior (Truong, 2010). Food satisfaction does not often depend on what an individual actually has as much as it depends on socially shaped aspirations (Vasantha, Vijaylakshmi, & Kiran, 2015). Smeets-Kristkova, Achterbosch, and Kuiper (2019) assert that unlike demographic change which is included in terms of population growth rates, consumers’ aspirations are hardly captured in the Nigerian food system and studies. However, it has been identified that an increasing number of households, especially the middle- and higher-incomes classes as well as consumers who use digital media, are giving more attention to a set of aspirational-driven food preferences (Ali, Sanjeev, & Janakiraman, 2010). Nigeria has been identified as one of the countries where consumption of unhealthy foods and soft drinks is relatively low but growing at a fast pace with Westernization aspiration as a key driver (Rockefeller Foundation, 2013). 3.3 Ability The individual’s ability to carry out the intentions is the second component in the MAO model and incorporate both a habit and a knowledge element. Both elements could substantially influence diet quality. Motivation leads to a change in behavior, only if the individual can engage in the behavior change. Increased knowledge about nutritional content of foods and practical skills to prepare foods are considered key elements in inviting consumers to make (more) healthy food choices. 14 3.3.1. Knowledge Education seriously affects the quality of people’s diets (Cruwys, et al., 2012). An empirical study in Nigeria shows that access to higher formal education, typically above primary school level, had a significant and positive effect on child nutritional outcomes (Fadare, Amare, Mavrotas, Akerele, & Ogunniyi, 2017). In addition, maternal nutrition and health knowledge obtained outside school may substitute for formal education in enhancing nutritional wellbeing, particularly in a population characterized by a low level of, or lack of access to, formal education (Block, 2007; Fadare, Amare, Mavrotas, Akerele, & Ogunniyi, 2017). In a survey of 668 women, 43 percent said they get their nutrition information from the antenatal visit, and 23 percent reported the information was passed down from their families (Byrd et al, unpublished data). Knowledge dissemination about diet quality should therefore receive the attention of nurses, nutritionists, researchers and policy makers as a way of addressing the threats to healthy eating (Arzoaquoi, 2014). To what extent better knowledge of the nutritional content of foods would contribute to consumers buying healthier, more diverse foods, is little researched in Nigeria (Research Question 9). 3.3.2. Skills People may lack skills or habits to exhibit certain health-related behaviors (Olander & ThOgersen, 1995). Interventions aimed at developing those skills can facilitate behavior change through the development of practical skills such as planning for grocery shopping, cooking techniques and recipes, etc. In addition, targeting people’s beliefs that they can eat healthily by being able to purchase, cook and eat the right amounts is a way to improve diet-related behavior (Prestwich, et al., 2014). In a recent study by (Raaijmakers, Snoek, Maziya-Dixon, & Achterbosch, 2018) self-efficacy was positively associated with vegetable consumption in urban Nigeria. Similarly, cultural habits related to food preparation have been reported as a limiting factor for nutrient retention in foods, especially vegetables. During the dry season, the dry form of many vegetables (including okra, peppers, onions, tomatoes, and pumpkin) is used. Other vegetables have been reported to be overcooked during the preparation process (Adeyemi & Shittu, 2017). 15 3.4. Opportunity Opportunity represents the environmental or contextual mechanisms that enable behavior change. Availability of food and access to food depend largely on the food culture and people’s practices among other factors, such as the food environment. Beyond the issue of food availability, access to food, and the preparation process, other factors such as the health care system and environment that supports good hygiene practices must be in place (UNICEF, 2013) to enhance diet quality and good nutrition. 3.4.1. Income/ purchasing power In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including Nigeria, economic ability of an individual (in terms of purchasing power) is a crucial determinant of the amount, variety and safety of food consumed/purchased. Purchasing power reflects household income as well as food prices. Households with higher incomes can purchase more and better food at any price, while lower prices will enable households to purchase more and/or better food at the same income level. Higher food budget share may reflect poor economic wellbeing of an individual or household. For example, poor households in Nigeria spend more than 70 percent of total household budget (income) on food, whereas the wealthiest groups spend up to 35 percent of the total household budget on food (World Bank Development Indicators). The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that an average Nigerian spends 56.4 percent of their household income on food – the highest in the world (USDA, 2012). The high budget share of food is due to a combination of low incomes and high food prices, and the Nigerian food system has been described as not providing very affordable food (IFPRI, 2015). National statistics claim that about two-thirds of the rural poor’s household expenditures on food is mainly starchy, such as maize, rice and other cereals categories, and tubers and plantain (NBS, 2012). A much more disaggregated analysis indicates that the share of total budget devoted to food varies across different regions/geo-political zones in Nigeria. Households in the North–East and Northwest zones of Nigeria spend approximately 72 percent and 73 percent of total expenditure on food, those in North Central and South-East spend between approximately 66 and 68 percent while the two remaining zones spend less than 60 percent on food (NBS, 2012). Most of the poor consume less varied, monotonous foods that are largely staples with inadequate animal proteins, fruits and vegetables (Akerele https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/this-map-shows-how-much-each-country-spends-on-food?utm_content=buffera173a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/this-map-shows-how-much-each-country-spends-on-food?utm_content=buffera173a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/this-map-shows-how-much-each-country-spends-on-food?utm_content=buffera173a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer 16 & Shittu, 2015). Household food spending data provide useful insights on the current link between purchasing power and food consumption patterns and could be the basis for predictions on consumer purchasing power and dietary change under various scenarios in the future. Little research has been done in Nigeria on the link between socio-economic features of the population and dietary patterns (Research Question 10), except for Akerele and Shittu (2017) and (Dillon, McGee, & Oseni, 2014). The latter study indicates a positive relation between education and diet quality (measured as diet diversity), whereas Akerele and Shittu (2017) point to a positive relation between income and household size on dietary diversity. The authors found mixed effects of food prices on diet quality, with increasing prices of cereals, roots and tubers, fish, meat and pulses having a negative impact on dietary diversity and that of milk exerting a positive effect. 3.4.2. Gender issues Opportunities for women to participate in food choices and purchases have been hypothesized to affect the quality of household diets. However, evidence for this association is not supported by the limited studies available. Available studies suggest that although women participate in decision making on food expenditures, heath, and education, in Nigeria, men are still the main decision makers in these areas (Angel- Urdinola & Wodon, 2010). Also, a study by Aromolaran (2010) showed that a redistribution of income from men to women (enhancing women’s financial ability) within the household may not substantially increase food calorie intake among households in South West Nigeria. Previous reports (SPRING, 2014; Sraboni, Malapit, Quisumbing, & Ahmed, 2014) document that the use of women’s income to purchase better quality and more quantities of food is consistently an intermediate variable in the pathway from women’s empowerment to improved nutrition. Whether intra-household (women-biased) resource allocation, power sharing and decision making may substantially enhance diet quality in Nigeria remains a matter of empirical investigation (Research Question 11). 3.4.3. Globalization and foreign influences Globalization is another important factor that is gradually changing the perspective of people about diets. Globalization manifests in the cross-border interactions of the flow of goods and services, finance, and 17 international trade. It has cultural, ideological, demographic, and other similar aspects. In Nigeria, there has been slow but steadily increasing access to Western lifestyles as occasioned by education, the availability of cable television, and the internet, thereby changing the mode of awareness creation about different categories of diets and their benefits (Prasad & Prasad, 2007). Nigerians seem to be very sensitive to brands: although open to experimentation, they tend to remain loyal to their favorite brands. Approximately 70 percent indicated they are brand loyal compared to 59 percent reported for Africa as a whole (Fiorini, Hattingh, Maclaren, Russo, & Sun-Basorun, 2013). For the upper-income consumers, brand loyalty is driven by the perceived quality of brands while unwillingness to try new things seems to be responsible for brand loyalty among low-income consumers. Foreign products, generally perceived to be of better quality than products made in Nigeria, are also increasingly been consumed by a growing middle class (Hillbruner & Egan , 2008). 18 IV. FOOD ENVIRONMENT 4.1. Overview The food environment represents the “range of foods that can be accessed in the context where people live and can enable or restrict healthy dietary choices” (FAO, 2016). According to the HLPE, food environments are considered healthy when they “enable consumers to make nutritious food choices with the potential to improve diets and reduce the burden of malnutrition” (HLPE, 2017). Therefore, working toward making food environments enablers of healthy food choices offers an untapped opportunity to positively impact diet quality and nutrition (FAO, 2016; Global Panel, 2017). In Nigeria, the government launched the Agriculture Sector Food Security and Nutrition Strategy 2016- 2025 to improve the food environment in the country. The Strategy embodies a set of recommendations on the best way of managing the interface between consumers and food suppliers and is aimed at improving consumer access to diverse and quality diets. The strategy necessitates the active participation of the private sector, civil society and government for its success. Some of the measures included in the Strategy are the increased marketing and promotion of high-quality diets, processing of foods in ways that increase their nutritional value and safety, and nutrition labelling of foods. The Strategy was launched in May 2017 and implementation commenced recently. Also, the physical features of the food environment, i.e. the proximity and hygiene situation of markets, food shops, restaurants, and other food services should be directed toward promoting consumer choice for safe and healthy food. Consumer-oriented rural and urban planning remains underdeveloped. 4.2. Access to Markets Access to markets and distance from markets are key determinants of diet diversity and levels of consumption. Access to market has been abysmally poor in Nigeria. Markets are characterized with scattered value chains and weak value chain linkages between consumers, processors, and farmers (UNDP, 2013). In spite of some improvement over the years, levels of access to paved roads are grossly insufficient. 19 Only about 16 percent of the country’s roads are paved (Bello-Schünemann & Porter, 2017). In Nigeria, the development of modern grocery retailers remains in its early stages, with food purchases at open informal markets and the smaller traditional food shops dominating. Street foods have become a common phenomenon among semi-urban dwellers and the inhabitants of cities (Okojie & Isah, 2014). Street foods are foods prepared by vendors at home or in designated centers but offered for sale in open or semi-open conditions near the streets. Despite the better taste and relative accessibility and affordability associated with street food, their preparation is fraught with unhygienic practices. Subsequently, consumption of street foods has been associated with public health risks, food poisoning, and other related diseases (Okojie and Isah 2014). The quality of diets in Nigeria, and some other African countries is also being influenced by emergence of road-side restaurants and street food vending/marketing. The roadside food vending is an age-long practice and has become a viable small and medium scale enterprise along the food chain (Okojie & Isah, 2014). Road-side food vending provides ready-to-eat, relatively cheap meals by sellers in streets and public places for immediate consumption (Fellows & Hilmi, 2011). Urbanisation is one of the major factors responsible for the rapid growth of street foods and road-side vending in many developing worlds (Okojie & Isah, 2014). Some vendors make food available in packs, while others offer it unpackaged. Issues about the quality and safety of food sold by these ubiquitous outlets have always been of great concern. Presence of flies, carbon fumes and dust which settle on foods make them unhygienic for human health (Onyeneho & Hedberg, 2013). In most cases, waste water and garbage are disposed of very close to restaurants and road- side food vending sites, which serves as breeding site for vermin and microbes (Fellows & Hilmi, 2011; Proietti, Frazzoli, & Mantovanni, 2014); thus increasing the risk to consumers of typhoid, dysentery, diarrhea and cholera (FAO, 2007; Nunes, et al., 2010; Rane , 2011). Availability of a well-maintained and efficient road network is crucial for food systems to deliver healthy diets. With good transportation infrastructure, a larger share of the foods produced can be brought directly 20 by farmers to urban areas more quickly and at a better quality. Where the transportation system is efficient, fewer losses and less food waste are incurred. Road transportation is the primary means of transportation in Nigeria (Ogwude, 2011), and constitutes about 90 percent while air, rail and water constitute the remaining 10 percent (Amiegbebhor & Dickson, 2014). As of 2017, total road network was estimated between 193,000km and 195,000km, where 32,000km were Federal Highways, 31,000km State Highways and 130,000km to 132,000km local government and feeder roads. The total length of paved roads was estimated at a little over 60,000km (World Bank, 2019). Substantial shares of food crops, including grains, vegetables and fruits, get spoiled after harvest because many farmers are unable to readily access markets as a result of lack of access to feeder roads and/or bad roods; which often cause vehicle breakdowns and delayed delivery of food to its destination. It is estimated that as much as 25 percent of fruits, 40 percent of vegetables and about 20 percent of grains are lost after harvest (Matemilola & Elegbede, 2017). Based on the forgoing, there is need for more in-depth empirical work linking market access for farmers to dietary quality in the Nigerian context (Research Question 12). 4.3. Promotion Advertising can influence food choices and, by extension, diet quality. It is one of the promotional strategies that serve as a major tool in creating product awareness in the mind of a potential user who will eventually make a purchase decision about the products or services (Asemah, Edegoh, & Ojih, 2013; Apejoye, 2013; Uwem, Iniobong, & Inyene, 2015). In Nigeria, advertising is shifting rapidly away from the traditional means of television, radio, newspapers and magazines and toward online/social media (Otugo, Uzegbunam, & Obikezie, 2015; Olotewo, 2016). This shift is most pronounced in online businesses. In Nigeria, the engagement and use of new digital technologies are increasing, thereby encouraging social media marketing. Multinational companies, including the food industry and telecommunications providers as well as small- and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) such as coffee shops, restaurants, information curators etc., now use social media to reach customers (Ekwueme & Okoro, 2018). Direct messages through email and 21 text messages to phones are also new ways of product advertisement in the country. Celebrities like film stars and professional athletes have not only been successful in generating huge public attention, but also in increasing sales volume (Zippora & Mberia, 2014). Some former star athletes have been featured in multi-category endorsements of foods in the country. Given that advertising is a veritable marketing strategy used to create awareness and gain favorable responses about products and services, its influence on foods choice and diet quality cannot be overemphasized. 4.4. Food Safety Regulations Another important factor that affects the food environment and dietary quality relates to legislation and the enforcement of food laws. Inadequate or poorly enforced regulatory standards have been noted as limiting factors to good quality foods (WHO, 2015). Rehabilitation of food systems, inclusive of the agricultural sector, through sound government policies is necessary. Concerns for food safety and compliance to standards have motivated many governments and other interest groups to join forces together, playing regulatory and surveillance roles to ensure that food available for consumption is safe and healthy. With this in view, FAO and other United Nations (UN) organizations have been making efforts to ensure that member countries apply food standards in order to protect consumers. In Nigeria, regulation of food safety is carried out by the Federal Ministries of Health and Agriculture, the Standards Organization of Nigeria (SON), and the National Agency for Food and Drugs Administration and Control (NAFDAC). Like several other LMICs, Nigeria is confronted with the problem of foodborne diseases with their attendant social, economic and health costs (Omotayo & Denloye, 2009). There is a National Policy on Food Safety and an associated implementation strategy launched in 2014 to promote health through control of foodborne diseases, and reduction and final elimination of the risk of diseases related to poor food hygiene. NAFDAC has several regulations in line with Nigerian Industrial Standards and the Codex Alimentarius Commission’s Standards, one of which is mandatory fortification of some food items to prescribed levels. Examples of such regulations include iodization of salts and the fortification of sugar, flour and vegetable 22 oils with vitamin A. Some other regulations relating to foods include (pre-packaged food) Labelling Regulations 2005, and Pesticide Registration Regulations 2005. Food like bromated bread (from bromate flour) is banned because it has been linked to kidney damage, cancer and nervous system damage. The major reasons for these policies are to ensure that Nigerians have access to good quality foods. However, the extent of enforcement and compliance remains a big challenge as many of the foods are still seen in Nigeria’s markets. There has been poor supervision and monitoring by food safety officers, and the enforcement of food hygiene regulation has been weak (Okojie & Isah, 2014). An important question is what the effects will be on food consumption patterns and on the informal open markets (as an important food marketing channel), when policies and enforcement of food hygiene and safety regulations become more stringent (Research Question 13). 4.5. Economic Access Food prices, and their volatility, affect affordability and therefore access to and use of food. Food access is problematic in Nigeria (see Section 3.4.1). While farm households generally benefit from rising farmgate prices, production costs may well increase simultaneously. Food price inflation can hamper consumers’ ability to buy enough food for their families. Food price volatility is a concern, in particular for low-income households that spend a large share of their budgets on food under normal market conditions. Uncertainty about prices makes it more difficult for farmers to make sound decisions about how and what to produce. Food prices in Nigeria generally fluctuate often, not only from year to year, but also on a seasonal basis (NMMB, 2017). The price transmission from global and neighboring commodity markets depends on the crop and the region (Hatzenbuehler, Abbott, & Abdoulaye, 2017). Government interventions in the past have aimed to safeguard food access against the backdrop of high and volatile food prices, for instance via building food stocks or reducing import tariffs. Nigeria is a net importer of a wide range of food and is dependent on world market developments. In their analysis of the impacts of the 2007 and 2008 international price peaks on Nigeria imports and markets, Odozi and Omonona (2012) 23 point at the limited impact of the Nigerian public grain price stabilization scheme in reducing the volatility of prices due to a lack of financial means and poor management of the responsible government agency. In line with the widespread economic evidence on ineffective market management, Nigeria has reoriented the use of strategic grain reserves toward emergency reserves linked to safety net programs. Research on government options and instruments for effective measures to safeguard access to nutritious food and healthy diets during short-term and protracted food security crises are largely missing in Nigeria (Research Question 14). Seasonality is another factor affecting dietary quality in terms of production (availability) and consumption of (or accessibility to) more varied foods. Seasonality impacts prices as well as price fluctuations. Akerele and Shittu (2015) in one study indicated that the number of foods consumed by an average farm household in the post-harvest season was more than the number of foods produced during post-planting season. However, in a more disaggregated analysis, the same authors found (contrary to expectations) that a greater proportion of households consumed more highly diverse diets during the post-planting (lean) season than in the post-harvest season (Akerele & Shittu, 2017). One of the reasons given to their findings was that households in Nigeria (and many other African countries) sell off some portion (or almost all) of the foods they produce at post-harvest and perhaps save income from sales to meet future food or other consumption needs. The authors caution that findings should be understood with some qualifications, and that other reasons beyond seasonality of agricultural production may be responsible for the observed variation in the seasonal food consumption diversity. Such different outcomes call for further research on households’ strategies to cope with both seasonal and annual food price fluctuations (Research Question 15). 24 V. FOOD SUPPLY SYSTEMS IN NIGERIA The effect of food supply systems on the food environment and diet quality is determined by the type of food supply system. There are three broad types of food supply systems: traditional, modern, and transitional (Maxwell & Slater, 2013; Reardon, et al., 2019). In the HLPE conceptual framework used to structure this paper, food supply is channelled through four connected subsystems: 1) agricultural production, 2) storage, transport and trade, 3) food transformation, and 4) food retail and distribution. The characteristics of each of these subsystems (described below) are influenced by the type of food system. Overall, Nigeria has been classified as having a transitional food supply system (IFPRI, 2015). The classification of the food system of countries (IFPRI, 2015) was based on seven criteria across five food system features: agricultural productivity, food supply diversity, food accessibility, environmental sustainability, and demographics. The food system in Nigeria was reported to supply a limited range of not very affordable food, using natural resources in an unsustainable manner. Furthermore, while there is room for improvement in agricultural productivity, the food system in some parts of the country is consistent with urbanized systems. 5.1. Agricultural Production Subsystem Nigeria’s food supply systems are a function of several fundamental factors, including available human and material resources, level of technology, government policy, ecological potential, and the skills and preferences of agricultural producers. Nigeria has abundant land resources and diverse ecosystems suitable for growing a broad range of food crops as reflected in Figure 2 (Onyibe, Daudu, & Akpoko, 2005; Blein, et al., 2008; AFD, 2011). The types of foods available at household level are a function of adopted farming systems. Farming systems in Nigeria are highly diversified and differentiated by seasons, ecologies and enterprise combinations. Roots and tubers and a blend of fruit crops, leafy vegetables, poultry and game animals are predominant in the southern regions while the legumes, pulses, cereals and large ruminants are dominant in the northern regions (Figures 2 and 3). Mixed farming that integrates cropping systems with livestock systems across the country are a prime strategy for mitigating climatic shocks and ensuring 25 household diet diversity. Similarly, farming practices that improve the regular flow of a variety of different foods into the household throughout the seasons enhance food security for its members (Onyibe, Daudu, & Akpoko, 2005; NAERLS and FDAE, 2015). Figure 2. Ecologies and Crops Produced in Nigeria Source: Authors Subtropical forest zone (South) Root and tuber crops: cassava, yam, taro, sweet potato) Horticultural crops: okra, tomato, spinach, pepper, plantain, teferia, banana, egg plant, pineapple, pawpaw, citrus, mango, cocoa, and coconut, sugar cane, mushrooms, cucumber, fresh maize etc, Spices Cereals: maize and rice Legumes and oil seed crops: palm oil/kernels, soybean, cowpea, melon. Semi-humid- Southern and Northern Guinea Savannah (Central zone) Roots and tubers: yam, cassava, ginger, potato (S&I) Horticultural crops: banana, okra, pepper, egg plant, cucumber, water melon, papaw, mango, guava, teferia, spinach, cashew, onion, carrot, fresh maize, sugarcane, roselle, Spices Cereals: maize, rice, sorghum, millet, digiteria Legumes and oil Seeds:, cowpea, melon, ground nut, soybean, sesame seed. Drier zones (North) (Sudan and Sahel ecologies): Roots and tubers: Sweet potato, cassava Horticultural Crops: tomato, cucumber, water melon pepper, carrot, onion, garlic, mango, guava, egg plant, Spices and sugar cane Cereals: sorghum, millet, rice, maize and wheat legumes, cowpea, ground nut, soybean, Bambara nut, sesame seed 26 Figure 3. Agro-ecologies and animal protein sources in Nigeria Source: Authors Nigeria has two distinct cropping seasons, wet and dry, each having unique farm enterprise combinations that vary in scale and focus. The two seasons are interlinked, with transient breaks, thus enabling cyclic but highly diversified agricultural systems to thrive and making diverse fresh foods available throughout the year. Across the country, there are green leafy plants such as Amaranthus spp., Teferia spp., eggplant, Celosia spp., Basella spp., Solanum scabrum, Solanum americanum, Hibiscus sabdariffa and Vigna unguiculate. The leaves of these plants tend to be good sources of protein, phosphorus and iron as well as vitamins A and C and, in some cases, B-group vitamins. A range of fruits, citrus and vegetable crops are cultivated throughout the year, providing a constant supply of micronutrients. This includes yellow and orange perennial fruits (e.g. mango, papaya, and guava), fruit vegetables (e.g. tomato, pumpkin, pawpaw, jackfruit, pineapple, mango squash, gourd and eggplant), some root vegetables (e.g. carrot and yellow/orange-fleshed sweet potato) and dark-green leafy vegetables which are generally moderate to good sources of vitamins A and C. Agro-ecologies and animal protein sources in Nigeria • Fish: imported iced fish, Aquaculture and captured • Cow, goat and sheep • Chicken, geese, ducks • Rabbit Southern and Northern Savannas • Fish: Aquaculture and captured, imported iced fish • Chicken, turkey, ducks, wild birds • Pigs • Snails • Goats, cow • Bush meats: grass cutters, antelope, alligator, rabbit, birds, etc Rain forest zone • Fish: Captured and Aquaculture, • Pigs • Snails • Bush meat: alligators, wild birds, squirrels, etc Coastal Mangrove forest zone • Sheet and goat • Cow, donkey, Camel • Grasshopper • Geese, chicken • Fish: imported iced fish and captured Drier zones (Sudan and Sahel Savannas) 27 Fish is an important source of micronutrients, essential fatty acids, and protein. Fish species produced in Nigeria and those imported for consumption vary considerably in composition as well as in size and appearance. Captured fresh water and aquaculture fisheries remain popular in Nigeria, especially in the mangrove forest and rain forest ecologies. Marine fish species are consumed mostly along the coast and in cities. It was estimated that 21 percent of the animal protein consumed in Africa (excluding South Africa) came from fish and fishery products in 1990; this figure had remained stable since 1970 (FAO, 1992) and has progressively risen in Nigeria since 2008 (NAERLS and FDAE, 2015). Fisheries can be found along Nigeria’s 850 km of coastline and in inland waters and the Lake Chad Basin, while fish farming (aquaculture) is an expanding activity. Nigeria’s food production remains largely subsistence, depending mostly on family and/or a few hired laborers, with an average farmer cultivating less than 3 ha (Spencer, 2002; Lipton, 2005; Poulton, Dorward, & Kydd, 2005; Sanusi , 2010; ANAP, 2005). Credit markets are largely outside of the reach of farmers, which constrains their use of modern crop inputs: an estimated 3 percent of Nigerian farmers have used any form of credit to buy fertilizer, pesticide or seed (Adjognon, Liverpool-Tasie, & Reardon, 2017). Similarly, animal production is practiced as an extensive free-range system in which pastoralists move with their herds to seek new pastures by following the seasonal rains. Cultivation practices are becoming more intensive following reductions in fallow periods in most cases where crop rotation is practiced. The country’s endowments include large expanses of arable land surface and subsurface and ground water resources. Nigeria has about 70 million ha of cultivable land, of which only an estimated 40 percent is regularly under cultivation (FMANR, 1997), with 2.333 million ha potentially irrigable, although only 25 percent is irrigated annually (FAO, 2014). The country therefore relies heavily on rainfed agriculture to produce its various food crops. Presently, Nigeria is the leading producer of cassava, yam, and taro (cocoyam), and the second largest producer of sweet potato in the world (FAO, 2014). The crop subsector remains dominant, accounting for as much as 36 percent of national agricultural outputs; while the livestock 28 and fishing subsectors account for 2.6 percent and 1.37 percent, respectively (Funge-Smith, 2018) (Ukeje, 2007; Essien, Alonge, Etop, & Adinya, 2008). Assessment of various agricultural programs and policies by many authors suggests poor performance by the agricultural sector. Agricultural outputs remain relatively low despite growth in domestic demand for food and food products. The fundamentals for increased outputs are weak, leading to lack of access to food, malnutrition, and a significant shift to massive food imports to augment deficits in food supply. Poor development of commodity value chains and weak market information service (MIS) are partly responsible for poor access to food. These developments necessitate appropriate interventions to provide strong leverage for building an efficient food system to ensure healthy diets for Nigerians (Igwe, 2008). Generally, there are five main pathways through which agriculture can influence nutrition at the household level: 1) own consumption, 2) income for food, 3) income for health, 4) food prices and 5) women’s empowerment (Ruel, Alderman, & Maternal and Child Nutrition Study Group, 2013). To date, linkages between agricultural production and nutrition have been little researched in the Nigerian context (Research Question 16), with the most extensive study by Dillion et al. (2014). Their findings suggest statistically significant yet small positive effects of both agricultural revenues and (on-farm) crop production diversity on dietary diversity: a 10 percent increase in agricultural revenues or crop diversity results in a 1.8 percent or 2.4 percent increase in dietary diversity, respectively. Moreover, policy interventions targeted at improving nutrition of agricultural households should be broader than agricultural income expansion alone (e.g., combined with better health and education outcomes). Nigeria’s agriculture potential connotes great opportunities upon which sustainable and vibrant food systems for healthier diets could be leveraged (Gomatee, Waseem, & Ashraf, 2013; Onyibe , 2019). A further research question is to investigate how farmers could be tempted to produce foods not normally consumed in local diets that meet the macro- and micronutrient needs of the population (Research Question 17). 29 Empirical evidence on agriculture’s contribution to nutrition and how this contribution can be enhanced would also help to effectively implement nutrition-sensitive agriculture (NSA) policy measures in Nigeria. In the country’s Agricultural Promotion Policy, introduced in 2016, NSA is one of the guiding principles (FMARD, 2016). While the government program emphasizes improving crop productivity and export competitiveness, it combines measures targeted at the primary agricultural sector to enhance the availability of safe and nutritious food at affordable prices (e.g. promote proper use of agrochemicals, improve storage facilities and encourage bio-fortification of food); with programs to raise awareness about and generate demand for nutritious foods (e.g. promotions on TV and social media, school feeding programs, etc.). The Malabo Montpellier panel report (2017) provides some insights on the impacts policies have had on the country’s undernutrition status, pointing at positive trends in reducing malnutrition levels, highlighting large-scale biofortification programs of staple crops (such as maize and cassava) with vitamin A. However, the report also indicates that the double burden of malnutrition is rapidly becoming a challenge and calls for scaling up of interventions and further improvement of the nutritious quality of food supplied. In order to increase policy effectiveness, i.e. addressing all forms of malnutrition, thorough impact evaluation studies on Nigeria’s NSA policy instruments are necessary, in particular those that examine nutrition outcomes per target group, with special attention to women and young children (Research Question 18). 5.2. Storage, transport and trade subsystem Inadequate storage facilities for agricultural commodities result in huge post-harvest losses of farm produce, estimated at 60 percent of perishable crops (FMARD, 2016).1 Moreover, with few options to store produce after harvest, farmers are forced to sell when supply is abundant and prices are low. Subsequently, off- season products are unavailable or expensive, negatively affecting food and nutrition security. 1 The measurement of post-harvest losses varies strongly 30 In 2014, the government introduced the electronic warehouse receipt system to facilitate storage of agricultural products. It is particularly useful in the storage of grains. Farmers and traders are able to store products in certified warehouses, and warehouse receipts are eligible as collateral and can be used to access finance from banks. By 2016, the scheme had engaged 60,000 farmers across eight states (PwC, 2017). The government is aiming to expand storage capacities at the national, regional and household level (FMARD, 2016). A solid analysis of the capacity and quality needs of storage facilities, best practices on financing and operating storage services, and how these facilities are connected to local and regional markets will support the process of building safe and effective storage and related logistics support infrastructure (Research question 19). In addition to the lack of storage facilities, inadequate infrastructure, such as power supply and transportation facilities and networks, hampers the country’s agricultural potential (Olukunle, 2013; Staatz & Hollinger, 2016; FMARD, 2016) (Research question 20). The strongest growth in demand for food will continue to come from urban areas. Therefore, investments in transport and marketing infrastructure to improve market access will be critical to allow farmers to capture a large share of this growing demand (Research question 21). Research could guide such investments, showing the paybacks of investing in (hard and soft)2 infrastructure through reduced transport costs and enhanced rural-urban linkages to the benefit of urban and rural citizens’ nutritional status (through increased incomes as a result of better market access). Understanding how new infrastructure investments affect food transport and distance travelled, and how this influences the food environment, is important to leverage the benefits of new infrastructure to work for healthier diets (Research question 22). 2 Soft infrastructure relates to institutions and regulations. Examples include reforming rules restricting competition in the trucking industry that drive up transport costs, improving systems of contracting and contract enforcement among actors at all levels in the food system and designing and implementing grades and standard that provide incentives to producers to invest in upgrading product quality (Staatz & Hollinger, 2016). Improving market information to identify domestic and external opportunities is another one. 31 Regarding subnational trade, food is mostly consumed in the region where it is produced. This is related to the fact that around 80 percent of farmers are smallholders, producing mainly for subsistence, while surpluses are sold at local open markets and/or to processors near production plots. Subsequently, value chains are generally relatively short, except for some export crops like cocoa and sesame seed. Currently, smallholder farmers (accounting for around 90 percent of the agricultural production), locally operating traders, and small groceries dominate Nigeria’s food distribution system. Linkages between smallholders on the one hand and traders and processors on the other are rather loose, with little use of contracts. Examples of interventions enhancing market linkages by contract-farming are the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)-assisted Value Chain Development Programme3, linking rice farmers with an international rice milling company and cassava producers with processors. Wholesale food markets are few in number, while the country has regional collection points for a number of commodities that are traded intra-regionally (also imports/exports) and for which prices are monitored and made public (NMMB, 2017). The Abuja Securities and Commodities Exchange (ACSE) is the only exchange in the country involved in trading agricultural commodities such as maize, sorghum and millets. Marketing institutions (e.g. market information and quality and food safety standards) are weak. In terms of international trade, data shows that Nigeria is a huge net-importer of basic food items, such as wheat, rice and maize, and also for protein-rich products like soybeans, fish and dairy. These are all products for which Nigeria’s self-sufficiency is rather low (see Table 1). In terms of value, 2016 imports amounted to US$5.2 billion. Exports were valued at around US$770 million. Cocoa beans (and butter) is the main export crop in terms of value, followed by manufactured tobacco and sesame seeds. 3 http://vcdpnigeria.org/?p=179 32 Table 1. Gaps in Demand and Supply of Major Food Products in Nigeria (2016 Estimate) Self-sufficiency rate (%) Production (million ton) Local demand (million ton) Rice 36.5 2.3 6.3 Wheat 1.3 0.06 4.7 Maize/Corn 93.3 7.0 7.5 Soybeans 80.0 0.6 0.75 Fish 29.6 0.8 2.7 Tomato 36.4 0.8 2.2 Milk/Dairy 30.0 0.6 2.0 Yams 94.9 37 39 Oil Palm 56.3 4.5 8.0 Sorghum 88.6 6.2 7.0 Source: The Agriculture Promotion Policy (2016 -2020) Over the last two decades, Nigeria’s food imports show a rather rapid increase, with a peak in 2011 due to huge wheat imports. Wheat remains Nigeria’s most important import product over time. Also, the share of imports of (semi-) processed food products tends to increase compared to unprocessed agricultural commodities. Particularly since the early 2000s, there has been an acceleration in the rise of the unit value of imports, which corresponds to an increasing importance of higher-value food in the food import bill. Nigeria employs tariffs, other levies and taxes, and quotas on imports of many food products. The aim of these import measures is to support farmers to increase domestic production. However, these policies have been shown to be minimally effective as food commodities are traded informally and unregistered and the country’s land borders are particular porous in the light of smuggling and corruption (Torres & Seters, 2016). 5.3. Food transformation subsystem The food transformation subsystem transforms or processes agricultural products into more marketable, easily accessible, more storable food products for ease of consumer consumption (GLOPAN, 2016). The traditional system uses technologies that require a lot of labor but little capital, with a fragmented structure, and actors who operate without formal standards. Postharvest handling of food is minimal, the diet is 33 heavily influenced by seasonality, and undernutrition is prevalent. In transitional systems, technologies are a mix of capital-intensive and labor-intensive, and though quality and food safety standards are evolving, the structure is still fragmented. Modern systems use capital-intensive technologies, are consolidated, and have high quality and food safety standards. Processed foods, including fortified products, are available year-round and undernutrition is low (Gomez & Riketts, 2013; Reardon, et al., 2019). Processed foods can be divided into four categories based on the degree of processing: 1) unprocessed/minimally processed, 2) basic processed, 3) moderately processed, and 4) highly/ultra-processed (Poti, Mendez, Ng, & Popkin, 2015). Table 2 summarizes these four categories and provides examples of processes relevant and foods belonging to each category. Generally, highly-processed foods are reported to have higher sodium, sugar, and saturated fat content than less-processed foods (Poti, Mendez, Ng, & Popkin, 2015). The type of food transformation subsystem influences the degree of processing of food products and creates challenges but also opportunities for improved diet quality and nutrition (Gomez & Riketts, 2013). The extent to which the food transformation subsystem will influence diet quality in a particular context depends on the allocation of investments across the degrees of processing, the extent and type of food advertising and promotion, as well as the increased development/coverage of nutrient-dense food products (Gomez & Riketts, 2013; GLOPAN, 2016). 34 Table 2. Description of the Categories of Processed Foods Category Description Examples of Processes Used Examples of Food Products Unprocessed/minimally processed Foods have single ingredients and any processing does not change basic properties of the food from its unprocessed form Cleaning, drying, pasteurization, chilling Fresh fruits and vegetables, eggs, milk, skimmed milk, brown rice, honey Basic processed Foods that remain single foods after processing. Foods are processed to achieve either a) basic ingredients: components isolated from unprocessed form or b) basic preservation a) Milling, extraction, pressing, refining b) Canning, fermentation a) Whole-grain flour, oil, sugar, unsalted butter b) Fruit juice concentrate, canned vegetables, white rice, plain yoghurt, powdered milk, Moderately processed a) Basic processed foods with flavour additives (salt, fat, sweeteners, or flavouring) included b) Grain products that have been moderately processed Similar to basic processed a) Vegetables canned with salt, fruits canned in syrup, salted nuts, jam b) Whole-grain bread, whole grain breakfast cereal with no sugar or fat added Highly/ultra-processed Foods have multiple ingredients. Agricultural produce involved in processing are not recognizable Extrusion, moulding, reshaping Mayonnaise, margarine, ketchup, chocolate, sausage, instant noodles, breakfast cereal with refined grains, Source: Poti et al., 2015; FAO, 2015 Reflecting Nigeria’s transitional food system, food processing at the community level, especially in rural areas, appears to occur primarily for food preservation. Processing typically involves drying, fermentation, milling, smoking, and other minimal/basic processes, and is done using labor-intensive technologies. Industrial processing by SMEs is also done using simple, labor-intensive technologies (Adeyeba, 2014; Uzoejinwa, et al., 2016). There is, however, an increasing number of large food processing companies, 35 centered in urban areas, which use capital-intensive technologies (Uzoejinwa, et al., 2016). As a result, some Nigerians have seasonally-constrained diets while others have year-round access to a range of processed foods (Research question 23). Indeed, there is an increasing demand for industrially processed foods in Nigeria, with sales of around US$20 billion of processed foods in 2012 and a projected growth of 25 percent in the food processing sector in 2013 (Nzeka, Nigeria food processing ingredients market, 2013). The demand is largely met through imports, because of an underdeveloped domestic food processing sector (Nzeka, 2011; Nzeka, 2013). Costs of domestic food processing are noncompetitively high as a result of inadequate infrastructure and the need to import processing inputs. However, domestic processors are progressively developing and improving on products. Against the background of reducing its import dependency, the government promotes policies encouraging crowding in private investments in food processing and marketing (FMARD, 2016). Food processors generally import bulk and intermediate inputs and then undertake additional processing into final products. SMEs dominate the food processing sector, but there are several large indigenous and multinational companies. Overall, 90 percent of the total sector output is supplied by less than 150 companies (Nzeka, 2013). Wheat flour, poultry and meat, and bakery and confectionary industries dominated the sector in 2012, but there was an increasing focus on biscuit, fruit juice, and pasta. In 2012, the top food processing products were flour (19 percent of sector total); vegetable oil/fat (16 percent); alcoholic beverages, including beer (15 percent); non-alcoholic beverages, including fruit juice and soda (14 percent); and bread/snacks (7 percent). The products with the highest annual average growth rate in 2012 were snacks (20 percent growth rate); confectionery (19 percent); breakfast beverages like tea, coffee, and cocoa drinks (15 percent); poultry meat (10 percent); and wheat flour and ice cream with about 9 percent growth rate each (Nzeka, 2013). The top five food processing companies in Nigeria – Indofood, Royal Friesland, Promasidor, Dangote, and Flour Mills – accounted for 23 percent of the total sector revenue in 2009 (UNDP, 2012). A visit to the 36 website of each of these five companies and other important food processing companies (UNDP, 2012; Nzeka, 2013) showed products that are reflective of the entire food processing sector as earlier described. The most reoccurring products were flour, pasta, instant noodles, milk, yoghurt, fruit juice, and snacks. While some of the products, like flour, pasta, and some milk, yoghurt, and fruit juice brands, were only basically processed, the majority appeared to be ultra-processed. There were quite a number of milk, yoghurt, and juice brands to which other ingredients such as coloring had been added. Instant noodles and snacks were all ultra-processed. There is no Nigerian food consumption survey data to identify contribution of each processed food category to diet and nutrient intakes. It was also not possible to quantify the investments in each of the various products. However, Nzeka (2013) reported that, by 2012, Coca-Cola had invested more than US$200 million in food processing, including fruit juice processing in Nigeria; Olam International spent US$66.5 million in acquiring a dairy firm and US$167 million in acquiring a confectioneries company; and Flour Mills planned to invest US$600 million over five years. Although flour, oil, and sugar have mandatory fortification requirements in Nigeria, and many processed foods are voluntarily fortified, investments in nutrient-dense processed foods are still quite inadequate (Robinson, Akinyele, Humphrey, & Henson, 2014). The compliance with standards of mandatorily fortified foods has remained consistently poor (Ogunmoyela, Adekoyeni, Aminu, & Umunna, 2013; Aaron, et al., 2017). In fact, food vehicles that are expected to be mandatorily fortified are only considered fortifiable if they are industrially processed by large enterprises, and these large enterprises have poor compliance with expected levels of micronutrients in fortified foods. Food vehicles processed by the SMEs that dominate the Nigerian system are not considered fortifiable because the fragmented structure makes fortification technically, operationally, financially, and logistically unfeasible (Aaron, et al., 2017). There is little regulation of voluntarily fortified foods, so the level of compliance of these products with their touted nutrient content is unknown (Robinson, Akinyele, Humphrey, & Henson, 2014). In addition to challenges with compliance, there are different perceptions about the real or perceived price premiums that fortified foods command (Robinson et al., 2014) and coverage of actually fortified foods may not be even across the 37 various food segments (Aaron, et al., 2017). For voluntarily fortified foods and other nutrient-dense products, the physical (distribution) and social (promotion) costs of reaching the poor may be prohibitive as final prices will be unaffordable for the poor (Nwuneli, Robinson, Humphrey, & Henson, 2014). There are recent efforts to better understand the business case for food fortification in Nigeria (TechnoServe, 2019). Key challenges facing the food transformation subsystem which limit the provision of nutrient-dense foods and improvement of diet quality include: inadequate nutrition knowledge and awareness among the populace; little to no mechanisms that allow consumers to recognize that a processed food is nutrient-dense; high production costs as a result of inefficiencies in the agricultural production subsystem; high distribution costs, especially for reaching the most vulnerable; and ineffective institutions with inconsistent policies and ambiguous regulations (Robinson, Akinyele, Humphrey, & Henson, 2014). Based on an analysis of LSMS data, Liverpool-Tasie et al (2016) observe rapidly transforming diets in urban and rural areas in Nigeria, including an increasing reliance on food markets for purchases of food. This shift in consumption of purchased foods would increase opportunities for the food processing sector and non-farm employment opportunities as well, particularly for women who traditionally spend much time preparing food at home. Still, the functioning of agricultural value chains has been largely uninvestigated in Nigeria. Studies on the rice (Michael & Masias, 2016), poultry (Liverpool-Tasie, Adjognon, & Reardon , 2016), dairy and cocoa (PwC, 2017) value chains largely focus on efficiency and economic returns among value chain actors, identifying bottlenecks for improvement of the respective chains’ economic performance, yet do not address the potential of value chains to enhance nutrition through interventions. In order to assess the effectiveness of post-farm agri-food value chains at improving the nutrition intake of vulnerable groups, Maestre et al. (2017) propose an analytical framework integrating the value chain concepts with agriculture and nutrition, and identify key outcomes and requirements for value chains to be successful at delivering substantive and sustained consumption of nutrient-dense foods to poor households. The conceptual framework has informed a series of 10 case studies in South Asia to identify the challenges and successful strategies in agri-food value chains contributing to reducing under nutrition. It may be 38 worthwhile to consider the application of this framework in the Nigerian context (Research question 24). From a diet perspective, it is critical to investigate if and how new investments in agro-processing can add nutritional value, in terms of food composition, safety, acceptability, and a diversity of food products, along the value chain, and how potential trade-offs of processing, e.g. nutrient loss, added amounts of unhealthy components, contamination from processing equipment (e.g. lead), can be avoided. It is also important to evaluate the role of relevant government policies in promoting the food industry to supply nutritious foods (Research question 25). For instance, Nigeria has a national food safety policy, with food safety legislation and institutions in place (Omojokun, 2013), yet application of regulations and compliance with standards by food processing and service industry is hampered by poor enforcement (also related to the large informal sector) and the industry’s limited means to invest in food safety standards due to the sector’s fragmented structure. 5.4. Food retail and provision subsystem Well-functioning food markets are important for improving diet quality. The food retail structure in Nigeria is highly fragmented, with traditional open markets remaining the major food distribution channels, accounting for two-thirds of overall food retailing (USDA, 2011). Both rural and urban consumers depend on local informal markets, as well as elaborate formal markets, such as grocery and supermarkets. When markets, especially rural ones, are well developed and easily accessible (e.g. only small fees for permits), many farmers can bring their products to markets. This increases supply and availability of foods both in quantity and variety and diversity for consumers. Nigeria’s retail food sector is made up of supermarkets, convenience stores/small groceries, and traditional, open-air markets making up 1.0, 34 and 65 percent of the total retail food sales, respectively. Most retailers purchase more than 80 percent of their stock of consumer-oriented foods from importers and wholesalers located in traditional open markets. The number of modern grocery retailers in the form of super- and hypermarkets continues to grow with several foreign chains active in the country, but in terms of market share, modern grocery is still rather low 39 (Euromonitor, 2016). As the middle class grows, the role of the formal food market, including supermarkets, is expected to become much more significant, with subsequent important consequences for the supply chain structure. Moreover, Nigeria’s business environment is now creating customers who seek more convenience-type foods such as potato chips, tortilla chips, cereal snacks, pretzels, popcorn and various other snacks and fast foods, which has resulted in an increase in boutique hotels, restaurants, and shopping malls in main cities across the country (GAIN, 2013). Urban patterns of food choice are noticeably different from rural patterns, and include reduced consumption of traditional staples, more animal and dairy products, more processed food, and a greater proportion of food consumed outside of home. These patterns have far-reaching impacts on food systems and consumption in rural areas as well. Ready-to-eat fast food consumption is already an established public dietary habit in urban areas, including cities such as Lagos, Ibadan, Awka, Onitsha, Asaba, Port Harcourt and Abuja. Fast food business and consumption is prevalent because of factors including the fast pace of life, long hours of work, women’s employment outside the home, the youthful population, increased mobility, and diversity of available foods. (Olutayo & Akanle, 2009; Arulogun & Owolabi , 2011; Olootu & Awoseila, 2011; Salami & Ajobo, 2012; Olise, Okoli, & Ekeke, 2015). At the same time, two case studies (Nwuneli, Robinson, Humphrey, & Henson, 2014; Pittore & Reed, 2016) have revealed a tension between producing nutrient-dense foods and retailing these products to poor populations. Several constraints, such as high distributional costs, building demand, and signalling to consumers that products are of high nutritional quality, made it difficult for mid-size businesses to build commercially sustainable models around nutrient-rich foods for the poor. Businesses in the case studies, however, had some success by working with nonprofit donor-funded organizations who distributed products to vulnerable groups free of cost. Nevertheless, chronic undernutrition is so widespread in the country that nonprofit distribution will never be able to cover all those affected. A fundamental question is to determine (market and regulatory) conditions and requirements under which companies can establish 40 profitable business models to provide nutrient-rich food to those who need it the most, knowing that in general these are the poorest of the poor. Indeed, within the model of multiple retail outlets in Nigeria, a key research question is which outlets can most effectively be le