IFPRI Discussion Paper 02310 December 2024 Global Rice Market Current Outlook and Future Prospects Joseph Glauber Abdullah Mamun Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit ii INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), established in 1975, provides research-based policy so- lutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to foster a climate-resilient and sustainable food supply; promote healthy diets and nutrition for all; build inclusive and effi- cient markets, trade systems, and food industries; transform agricultural and rural economies; and strengthen insti- tutions and governance. Gender is integrated in all the Institute’s work. Partnerships, communications, capacity strengthening, and data and knowledge management are essential components to translate IFPRI’s research from action to impact. The Institute’s regional and country programs play a critical role in responding to demand for food policy research and in delivering holistic support for country-led development. IFPRI collaborates with part- ners around the world. AUTHORS Joseph Glauber ( J.Glauber@cgiar.org) is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI) Unit of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC. Abdullah Mamun (A.Mamun@cgiar.org) is a Senior Research Analyst with IFPRI’s MTI Unit, Washington, DC. Notices 1 IFPRI Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results and are circulated in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. They have not been subject to a formal external review via IFPRI’s Publications Review Committee. Any opinions stated herein are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by IFPRI. 2 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on the map(s) herein do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) or its partners and contributors. 3 Copyright remains with the authors. The authors are free to proceed, without further IFPRI permission, to publish this paper, or any revised version of it, in outlets such as journals, books, and other publications. mailto:J.Glauber@cgiar.org mailto:A.Mamun@cgiar.org iii Contents Executive Summary vi Acknowledgments vii 1. Introduction 1 2. Overview of the rice market 3 2.1 Production 3 2.2 Rice demand 6 2.3 Rice trade 8 2.4 Rice inventories 11 2.5 Rice prices 12 3. Current Rice Outlook 15 3.1 El Niño's impact on the 2023 rice production 15 3.2 Impact of India's rice restrictions on global rice markets 17 3.3 Disruptions in global fertilizer markets 22 4. Outlook for the next 10 years 25 4.1 Baseline projections 25 4.2 Stochastic versus deterministic projections. 28 5. Risks and uncertainties 30 5.1 Weather and climate 30 5.2 Export disruptions 33 5.3 Logistical disruptions 35 6. Vulnerability analysis 36 7. Conclusions 41 References 42 Appendix 1 Rice crop calendar 44 Appendix 2 Monitoring Rice Markets 45 iv List of Figures Figure 1 Global rice production .................................................................................................................................3 Figure 2 Rice area harvested by major producers ......................................................................................................4 Figure 3 Rice production by major producers ............................................................................................................4 Figure 4 Average rice yields in major rice producing countries ................................................................................5 Figure 5 Fertilizer use in rice production ...................................................................................................................6 Figure 6 Per capita rice consumption .........................................................................................................................7 Figure 7 Rice as share of total calries consumed ........................................................................................................8 Figure 8 Rice exports..................................................................................................................................................9 Figure 9 Rice export market share ............................................................................................................................ 10 Figure 10 Rice imports ............................................................................................................................................. 10 Figure 11 Rice export destination by major exporters ............................................................................................. 11 Figure 12 Rice ending stocks .................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 13 Thai rice price (5% broken) ..................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 14 Global rice ending stocks ......................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 15 Rice production trend in major producing countries………………………………………. ................... 16 Figure 16 India rice exports by tariff line ................................................................................................................. 18 Figure 17 India rice exports by destination .............................................................................................................. 19 Figure 18 Senegal broken rice imports by supplier .................................................................................................. 20 Figure 19 Rice prices in major markets .................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 20 Monthly rice price in South Asia ............................................................................................................. 21 Figure 21 India broken rice exports .......................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 22 Fertilizer prices ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 23 Global nitrogenous exports ..................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 24 Global phosphatic exports ....................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 25 Global potassic exports ........................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 26 Imports as a share of consumption .......................................................................................................... 26 Figure 27 OECD-FAO rice price projections .......................................................................................................... 28 Figure 28 Baseline and stochastic intervals for selected international reference prices .......................................... 29 Figure 29 Rice yields and El Niño events …………………………………………………… ............ ……………31 Figure 30 Rice greenhouse gas emissions ………………………………………………… .............. …………….33 Figure 31 India national average retail rice price …………………………………………… .............. …………..34 Figure 32 Timor-Leste rice yield ………………………………………………………………………… ........ ….38 Figure 33 Vulnerability of selected Asian countries to production shocks and import disruptions……………………………………………………………………………………………………… ..... 39 Figure 34 Vulnerability of selected African countries to production shocks and import disruptions……………………………………………………………………………………………………… ..... 40 Figure 35 Rice imports as share of total daily calories…………………………………………………. ................ 40 Figure A.1 Rice crop calendars of major producing countries ............................... .................................................44 v List of Tables Table 1 Global rice balance sheet ............................................................................................................................. 16 Table 2 India export restriction on rice .................................................................................................................... 17 Table 3 Rice per capita consumption ....................................................................................................................... 25 Table 4 Projected rice market share in 2033/34 ....................................................................................................... 27 Table 5 Vulnerability measures for Asia rice consumers ......................................................................................... 37 Table 6 Monitoring the rice market…………………………………………………………………… ......... …….47 vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Paki- stan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Af- rica will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia. Keywords: Trade policy; rice market; weather and climate; risk and uncertainties vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Funding for this work was provided by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office of the United King- dom. This publication has been prepared as an output for the project Developing science and technology solu- tions to the global food security and climate crisis with CGIAR (2023-25); FCDO Project Number: 300671- (tbc) and has not been independently peer reviewed. Any opinions expressed here belong to the author(s) and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by IFPRI. 1 1. INTRODUCTION Rice is one of the most important sources of calories in human diets, accounting for about 17.3 percent of total daily per capita consumption in 2022 (FAOSTAT 2024a). Long a mainstay of Asian diets, rice is an important staple in many Latin and Central American countries and has become an increasingly popular food source for much of Sub-Saharan Africa. Almost 90 percent of the rice in the world is produced and consumed in Asia. Rice is thinly traded with imports accounting for only about 10 percent of total consumption (as compared to wheat where imports are almost 27 percent of consumption). As rice consumption grows in regions outside of Asia, trade has become increasingly important. India is currently the largest exporter with over 40 percent of the global export market. Other major exporters include Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan and the United States which, including India, account for over 80 percent of total rice exports. With much of the rice exports originating from South and Southeast Asia, the rice export market is vulnerable to climatic disruptions like El Niño which can adversely affect yields across much of the region. Growth in rice yields is tied to better seed varieties and the use of fertilizers. Fertilizer use has increased over time, much of which is imported. Recent disruptions in the global fertilizer (and energy) markets caused by sanctions (Belarus), the war in Ukraine, and China export restrictions, have caused importers to seek alternative sources of inputs. Likewise, the rice export market has been disrupted in the past by government restrictions which have affected exports. Export bans caused global rice prices to triple in 2007/2008 and more recently, India export restrictions imposed in July 2023 continue to exacerbate prices today (Glauber and Mamun 2024c). Higher prices mean im- porting countries, particularly low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, must face large import bills to meet basic food needs. This report provides an overview of the global rice market. The report is organized as follows. Section 2 de- scribes the rice market and discusses supply and demand trends over the past 20 years. Section 3 discusses the current outlook including the recent El Niño event, disruptions in the global fertilizer markets, and India's export restrictions. Section 4 looks at the mid-range outlook based on the most recent 10-year projections by the US De- partment of Agriculture (USDA) and FAO/OECD. Section 5 discusses vulnerabilities facing the market including climate change and logistical bottlenecks (for example, like recent disruptions in the Red Sea or Panama Canal). 2 Section 6 identifies Asian economies particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions. The final section considers market indicators to monitor the rice market. 3 2. OVERVIEW OF THE RICE MARKET 2.1 Production Total global rice production in 2022 was 776 million tons (FAOSTAT 2024b). Rice production is heavily concen- trated in Asia, which accounts for 90 percent of global production (Figure 1). The top ten rice producing coun- tries are in Asia which include China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines, Cambodia, and Pakistan. China and India together produced around 400 million tons of rice in 2022. Bangla- desh, Indonesia and Philippines are large importers as well. Beyond Asia, the top rice producing countries in- clude United States, Brazil, Nigeria, and Peru. Of these countries, the United States and Brazil are also significant exporters. Figure 1 From 1961 to 2022, land under rice cultivation increased from 115 million hectares in 1961 to 165 million hec- tares in 2022, an increase of 43 percent (Figure 2). India has the largest area under rice production, estimated at 46.4 million hectares in 2022, followed by China with 29.5 million hectares. Over the 60 years, India’s area in- creased by 11 million hectares. China's rice area grew rapidly in the 1960s and early 1970s but peaked in 1976 at 36 million hectares. Since then, area has fallen by almost 7 million hectares to its current level. Rice area in Sub- Saharan Africa (reflected in Rest of the World category) has seen a large increase, up over 12 million hectares since 1961, a five-fold increase. 4 Figure 2 Global rice production increased 260 percent between 1961 and 2023 (Figure 3). About half of the growth in pro- duction over the period was in China and India though China production has been relatively flat over the past 30 years with yield increases largely offsetting declines in harvested area. Figure 3 The large increase in production was due in part to the green revolution in the agriculture sector, including genetic innovation in rice varieties, and increased input use, which has boosted crop yields. Figure 4 shows yield growth 5 in selected rice growing countries. Yields vary widely across countries. Average rice yields in the United States have exceeded the yields of other major rice producing countries, with current yields exceeding 8 tons per hectare. The yield gap between USA and other countries ranges from 1 ton per hectare to 5 tons per hectare. Among the Asian countries, China and Vietnam show rising trend in rice yield. Though India is one of the top producing and exporting countries for rice, its yield level is around 4.2 tons per hectare in 2022, lower than the yield levels in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Bangladesh. Thailand's rice yields have grown at a somewhat slower rate than other rice producing countries in Southeast Asia. Figure 4 Higher yields can be explained in part by fertilizer usage. Rice is a fertilizer-intensive crop, particularly nitrogen- based products like urea. Figure 5 shows an estimate of average urea application rates by rice producers in major rice-producing countries. Note that countries with the highest yields (e.g, USA, China and Vietnam) also tend to be those with the higher application rates. 6 Figure 5 An important characteristic of the rice market compared to other staple crops like wheat is that many rice produc- ing countries produce multiple rice crops throughout the year (crop calendars for the major rice producing coun- tries are presented in Appendix figure A.1). India, for example, has two rice crops spanning 12 months – the Kharif and Rabi crops. Among these two, the Kharif rice crop accounts for about 65 percent of total rice produc- tion and is planted from May to July. Harvested from September through January, the Kharif crop is heavily de- pendent on the annual monsoons which arrive late in the summer. The Rabi crop is mainly irrigated and is planted in December and January and harvested March through May. Vietnam has multiple rice crops with har- vest occurring almost continuously from March through December. An important consequence is that on a global basis, rice is produced almost year-round though the largest quantities tend to come on the market in late fall (Oc- tober-December). Also, the dispersion of crop harvests across the year means weather events which affect one crop may be offset by more favorable weather for subsequent crops. 2.2 Rice demand Rice is consumed predominantly in Asia, which accounts for about 90 percent of global consumption. Consump- tion is particularly high in Southeast Asia where per capita rice consumption exceeds 500 calories per day (Figure 6) and where rice accounts for 42 percent of total diets (Figure 7). Consumption in more affluent Asian 7 economies such as China, Japan and South Korea, per capita rice consumption has declined over time, though re- mains high relative to other regions of the world. Other important rice consuming regions outside of Asia include West Africa, the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. Rice has grown in importance as a staple in many urban areas in Sub-Saharan Africa. In West Africa, rice accounts for over 17 percent of kilocalories available in daily diets, one of the largest shares out- side of Asia. Figure 6 8 Figure 7 2.3 Rice trade Rice is a thinly traded commodity. Only about 10 percent of global consumption comes from imports. By com- parison, about 27 percent of wheat demand, 15 percent of maize demand and 44 percent of soybean demand is met through imports. However, outside of Asia, import penetration rates are generally much higher. For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, rice imports account for about 45 percent of rice consumption in the region. Rice exports are dominated by India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, China, Myanmar, and USA which together account for around 85 percent of global rice exports (Figure 8). India is the top rice exporter exporting around 22 million metric tons of rice in 2022 (about 40 percent of the total exports). Thailand and Vietnam are second and third largest exporters, together accounting for 14 million tons of rice in 2022. 9 Figure 8 India's rise to become the world's largest rice exporter has occurred largely since 2010 (Figure 9). Prior to 2008, India's market share was roughly 15-20 percent of global rice exports. India placed a ban on rice exports in late 2007 which drove up prices and drastically reduced their market share. Those restrictions remained in place until 2012. Over the next 10 years their market share increased dramatically as production accelerated (in part due to large input subsidies). By 2021 their market share was 40 percent of the world rice exports. With export re- strictions in place in 2022 and 2023, that share has fallen though India is expected to regain share this year. Vi- etnam and Thailand both saw their market share fall as production and export growth has not kept pace with In- dia. 10 Figure 9 On the import side, markets are less concentrated (Figure 10). In 2022, China was the world's largest importer of rice at 6.2 million tons (about 20 percent of which was broken rice imported for feed usage). Philippines was the second largest importer, accounting for 3.2 million tons in 2022. About 50 percent of imports were from Asian countries (including significant importers in Western Asia like Iran, Iran and Saudi Arabia). Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for about one-third of total imports. The United States is an important market for imported rice, particu- larly Basmati rice from India and fragrant rice varieties from Thailand. Figure 10 11 Rice patterns of trade tend to reflect transportation costs with many countries concentrating sales in regional mar- kets (Figure 11). Not surprisingly, Asian markets are the primary destination for most of Asia's largest rice ex- porters. Sub-Saharan Africa is India's largest regional market and India is the largest supplier to Sub-Saharan Af- rica (accounting for between 65 to 70 percent of the region's total rice imports). Much of US rice exports go to Mexico, the Caribbean (Haiti) and Central and South America though 28 percent went to Asia markets (Japan, South Korea and Taiwan) in 2022. Over 40 percent of Myanmar's rice exports went to European markets in 2022. Figure 11 2.4 Rice inventories The US Department of Agriculture estimates global rice ending stocks to be 178 million metric tons for the 2024/25 marketing year (Figure 12). China and India are estimated to account for 80 percent of that total. Chi- na's inventories alone are estimated at 104 million tons, a level that equates to about 70 percent of China's annual consumption. China's rice stocks began to rise in the mid-2000s in part due to food security concerns following the food price spikes in 2007/08 which saw global rice prices triple. In response, China raised support prices for rice and other staple crops (such as maize and wheat). To maintain high prices, the government acquired very large stockpiles of grains including rice. Reforms to the support programs in the late 2010s resulted in some 12 decline in stockpiles but stocks remain quite large. Exact data on the size of China's stocks remains illusive as the government does not publish data on inventories. Many question the quality of those stocks as evidenced by the fact that China remains a large importer of rice. India's stockpiles are estimated to be at record levels. Like China, India has a public stockpiling program that supports producer prices and provides inventories to operate domestic feeding programs. Stocks outside of China and India are relatively small by comparison largely maintained for pipeline purposes or emergency grain reserves such as ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR). Figure 12 2.5 Rice prices Over the past 60 years, rice prices have seen four periods of relatively high nominal price levels (Figure 13). Rice prices spiked in the early 1970s as grain prices rose generally following the Russian grain purchases in 1972. Prices peaked again in 1981 as land set-aside policies and high support prices cut US rice exports (at the time the US accounted for about 25 percent of global rice exports). For the next 25 years, rice prices remained calm but in the mid-2000s production shortfalls and increased rice demand drew down stock levels (Figure 14). Price in- creases were exacerbated by export restrictions put in place by major exporters like India, Pakistan and Vietnam. As a result, rice prices nearly tripled between January 2007 and April 2008. Rice prices were initially relatively 13 unaffected following the Russian invasion of Ukraine (neither Russia or Ukraine are significant rice producers or consumers), but as prices for other grains rose, rice prices were gradually lifted as some countries like China im- ported rice to substitute for feed grains. Rice prices spiked as India put on a range of export restrictions that sharply cut its exports, particularly of non-Basmati white rice and broken rice (discussed more fully in Section 3). Adjusting for inflation, rice prices are currently trading at about half of the level that they were in the 1960s. Sim- ilar to what we see in other grains and oilseeds, declining inflation-adjusted prices reflect technological gains which have reduced production costs over time and allowed production to keep pace with demand growth. Whether these trends can continue in the face of climate change and increasing demand will be discussed in sec- tion 5. Figure 13 14 Figure 14 15 3. CURRENT RICE OUTLOOK The global rice market was relatively calm during 2022/23. The war in Ukraine had little impact on the rice mar- ket. Four major events hit the rice market in 2023/24 that caused market prices to rise by 30 percent. First, flood- ing in Pakistan in late August 2022 cut rice production by 2 million tons (21 percent). Second, an El Nino event posed to affect most of South and Southeast Asia prompted concerns that the accompanying drought would bring down yields and increase import demand. Those concerns turned out to be overblown as production in the large exporting countries like India, Thailand and Vietnam were relatively unaffected. Third, the imposition of rice ex- port restriction by the Government of India (GOI) in July 2023 had immediate impact on market prices, particu- larly for importing countries in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa. Those restrictions remain in place as of August 2024 and continue to distort market prices. Lastly, the fertilizer market was disrupted in 2022 and 2023 by a number of trade restrictions including China restrictions on nitrogen and phosphate exports, war-related disrup- tions affecting Russia and Belarus fertilizer exports and transportation bottlenecks in the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks on cargo ships (an important corridor for fertilizer components coming from Russia and Europe to Asia). 3.1 El Niño's impact on the 2023 rice production Despite a strong El Niño event that affected much of Southeast Asia, global rice production in 2023 was up mar- ginally from year earlier levels (Table 1). Small declines in China, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand were more than offset by large increases in Pakistan (which recovered from the flood-related losses in 2022) and the United States (Figure 15). India began the 2023 season with large concerns over the potential impacts of El Niño on rice yields, but the latest government data published in July suggests that the 2023 rice crop was marginally larger than the 2022 crop. Trade restrictions put in place by India in July 2023 cut exports and raised rice prices (discussed in more detail in section 3.2). As a result, consumption fell in 2023/24, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa (down 1 percent) which is heavily dependent on imports from India. 16 Table 1 Figure 15 17 The US Department of Agriculture estimates that global rice production for 2024/25 will increase marginally (up 0.3 percent) over 2023/24 levels. Because India export restrictions are assumed to remain in place, global rice exports for 2024/25 are estimated below 2022/23 levels though they increase marginally above 2023/24 levels. Overall, the global balance sheet is little changed for 2024/25 suggesting that in absence of current trade re- strictions, prices should decline. 3.2 Impact of India's rice restrictions on global rice markets In July 2023, the Indian government announced export restrictions on non-basmati white rice (Glauber and Mamun 2023a). Coming after earlier export limits on other types of rice, the action was taken in part due to a strengthening El Niño that threatened to limit rice production and fuel rising food inflation—a potential political liability for the Modi government as it faced upcoming general elections in spring 2024 (Glauber and Mamun 2023b). The restrictions imposed in 2022 and 2023—all still in place—include export duties, a minimum export price, and export bans (Table 2). The July 2023 ban on non-basmati white rice (excluding parboiled) was the most stringent type and had the biggest impact due to the large export volume of this rice variety, jolting the global market. Table 2 18 The non-basmati export ban had an immediate impact on trade. India’s rice exports for August 2023 fell 14% from July 2023 levels and 30 percent from a year earlier (Figure 16). Overall, for the 10-month period from Au- gust 2023 to May 2024, total rice exports were down 34 percent compared to the same 10-month period in 2022- 2023. Most of the decline was in the categories where bans were imposed: Non-basmati white rice exports were down 88 percent; broken rice exports were down 78 percent. Parboiled rice exports, subject to a 20 percent sup- plementary duty, were down 11 percent. Basmati rice exports—subject to a more limited minimum price export restriction—were up 18 percent over the same period while other categories (largely brown rice) were up 11 per- cent. Figure 16 India’s rice export restrictions resulted in a decline in exports to most regions of the world, the magnitude varying depending on the proportion of rice imported in the broken rice and non-basmati categories (Glauber and Mamun 2024b). India rice exports to Africa during the 10-month period following implementation of the restrictions were down 43 percent, and to Asia, 25 percent (Figure 17). Exports to Europe and Oceania were down 9 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Exports to Latin America, a relatively minor importing region for India rice, were down 81 percent. By contrast, exports to North America were up almost 29 percent, reflecting the region’s large import share of basmati rice. 19 Figure 17 The largest shifts in buying patterns have occurred in African countries such as Senegal that in recent years have imported a significant share of rice from India (Figure 18). Prior to the restrictions, India accounted for 70 percent to 75 percent of Senegal’s broken rice imports. Yet while these imports fell almost 80 percent in the 9-month pe- riod of September 2023 to May 2024 compared to the same period a year earlier, total imports in this category dropped only 2 percent. Imports from Brazil, Pakistan, Thailand, and other countries helped fill the gap. Yet while alternative suppliers have helped alleviate sourcing problems, importers like Senegal continue to face high prices caused by the restrictions (Figure 18). 20 Figure 18 Imposition of India's export restrictions immediately disrupted global rice markets, with the benchmark Thai white rice price increasing over 20 percent by early August 2023. Rice prices have remained at those levels since then (Figure 19). Figure 19 The export restrictions led to significant rice price increases for India’s neighbors in South Asia that continue. (Figure 20). Nepal has seen the largest price spikes in the region. In May 2023 the price of rice (coarse) in Nepal was 58 rupees/kg; one year later it was 75 rupees/kg—a 26 percent rise. Sri Lanka had the next-largest increase. 21 Both countries are heavily dependent on Indian rice imports. Bangladesh observed a more modest increase in the price of coarse rice. Rice price inflation puts pressure on large numbers of low-income consumers in these countries, as rice consump- tion makes up a significant proportion of their daily calorie intake. Bangladesh leads the world in this regard—an average of 67 percent of per capita daily calories come from rice. In Sri Lanka, the figure is also high: 41 percent of calories per capita. Figure 20 Among other South Asian countries, the experience of Pakistan—a major rice exporter—is noteworthy. Paki- stan’s retail rice prices saw a sharp increase in late 2022 due to the flooding that affected its 2022 rice crop. Re- tail prices remained high throughout 2023. With a return to normal yields in 2023, retail prices would normally have declined, but India’s actions have kept retail prices high (Glauber and Mamun 2024c). Recent developments. On September 27, the GOI announced that it had removed the 20% export duty on non- Basmati white rice, and halved export duty on three other categories of rice (Sharma 2024). The duties on ‘rice in the husk (paddy or rough)’, ‘husked (brown) rice’, and ‘parboiled rice’ were reduced from 20 percent to 10 per cent. On September 28, the GOI lifted the ban on export of non-Basmati white rice. It has, however, imposed a minimum export price (MEP) of $490 per MT. On October 25, the GOI took further steps by removing the MEP for non-Basmati white rice and exempting parboiled rice and husked (brown) rice from export duty (PTI 2024, Glauber and Mamun 2024d). 22 India has not changed its policy towards broken rice; the current ban is still in effect with some exception for bi- lateral government-to-government arrangements. Broken rice exports have averaged about 130 thousand tons per month since April, over half of which have been to Senegal (figure 21). Figure 21 3.3 Disruptions in global fertilizer markets As discussed in Section 2.1, rice is fertilizer intensive and the yield growth in many rice producing countries over the past 20 years has been in part tied to significant use of fertilizer components, most of which are imported from a handful of global producers. Beginning in 2021 and continuing through 2022, global fertilizer markets were disrupted by a number of factors that caused importing countries to seek alternative suppliers as fertilizer prices increased (Figure 22). 23 Figure 212 Fertilizer exports from China plunged after the country restricted exports from mid-2021 onwards. Chinese ex- ports of diammonium phosphate (DAP), which typically account for 30% of global DAP trade, fell by 43 percent in 2022 compared with 2021, while Chinese urea exports declined by 47 percent in the same time frame. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent another shock through global fertilizer markets. All agricul- tural trade in the region was disrupted for a time, and a number of countries, including the United States and Eu- ropean Union, imposed export sanctions on Russia and its ally Belarus. Russia and Belarus are important produc- ers of all three major fertilizer nutrients: In 2020, Russia accounted for 14 percent of global trade in urea and 11 percent of trade in phosphate, while jointly Russia and Belarus accounted for 41 percent of global trade in potash. Sanctions against energy imports from Russia and Belarus drove up costs of natural gas which in turn boosted production costs for urea and other nitrogenous fertilizers. Figures 23-25 show how supplies of fertilizer components fell in 2022 but had largely recovered by 2023. Im- porters shifted to alternative suppliers (for example, Canada potash). Today prices have largely recovered from the highs reached in 2022 but remain high relative to 2020 levels (for example, DAP prices in July 2024 were al- most twice levels of January 2020. High rice prices have helped offset the higher input costs. While data are una- vailable on recent input usage, yields suggest that disruptions in the fertilizer market in 2021 and 2022 had mar- ginal effects on production. 24 Figure 23 Figure 224 Figure 25 25 4. OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS In this section we look at the outlook for the global rice market over the next 10 years. We draw on the recently published 10-year baseline projections published by the US Department of Agriculture in February 2024 and the joint FAO-OECD baseline published in July 2024. The baselines are based on stylized assumptions regarding the markets (for example, national policies currently in place are assumed to continue in place over the next 10 years), and, as such, are best interpreted as indicative trends for underlying market variables rather than for the absolute level of the projections. 4.1 Baseline projections Both baselines project that global rice consumption levels will largely grow at the same pace as over the past 10 years (roughly 0.5 to 0.6 percent per year). Most of the growth will come through population growth as the growth in rice per-capita consumption rates are below 0.5 percent per year in many regions (Table 3). Sub-Sa- haran Africa will likely see a steady expansion in demand, largely due to population and income. Consumption growth in other regions, due mostly to population growth, is more modest. China, the Philippines, Nigeria, the European Union, and Iraq are projected to be the largest rice importing markets. Table 3 Imports are projected to grow in importance under both baselines. USDA’s baseline projects rice imports to ac- count for over 11.1 percent of domestic consumption by 2033 (Figure 26). (The OECD baseline projects import share in 2033 at 11.2 percent). 26 Figure 26 There are minor differences between the USDA and OECD-FAO baselines though the overall trends are quite similar (Table 4). According to the USDA baseline, the Philippines is projected to remain the largest rice im- porter through 2031/32, when number-two importer China is expected to overtake it. Despite rising production, Philippine consumption is projected to grow at a relatively higher rate, driving imports to a record 4.3 million tons by 2033/34. China’s imports will grow to 4.4 million tons by 2033/34. Higher prices in China to cover rising pro- duction costs drive the growth in imports of lower priced long-grain rice. Under the OECD-FAO baseline the Philippines continues to be the number one importer accounting for 8 percent of total imports in 2033. USDA projects that Sub-Saharan Africa will remain the largest and fastest growing rice-importing region over the next 10 years, with imports rising 20 percent to 19.8 million tons by 2033/34, accounting for 39 percent of global import expansion. The strong growth is due to an increasing population, rising per capita income, and urbaniza- tion. Nigeria’s imports are expected to rise 25 percent to 2.9 million tons by 2033/34. 27 Table 4 Asia continues to supply most of the world’s rice exports throughout the projection period. India remains the world’s largest rice-exporting country, accounting for 36 percent of world rice exports under the USDA baseline and 31 percent of global exports under the OECD-FAO baseline. India is expected to remain the largest rice exporter with exports increasing by almost 28 percent over the projec- tion period, reaching 22.0 million tons by 2033/34. Over the near term, India’s exports are projected to continue to remain low through 2024/25 due to its export bans continuing. Under the USDA baseline, trade is expected to begin increasing in 2025/26. India exports mostly nonaromatic milled rice as well as smaller quantities of pre- mium basmati rice. Thailand’s rising yields and near-steady consumption provide an 11-percent increase in rice exports to 9.1 million tons by 2033/34 under the USDA baseline, still below the 2016/17 record of 11.6 million tons. Vietnam’s exports 28 are projected to expand 4.6 percent to a record 7.9 million tons by 2033/34. Exports are limited by a gradual shift in rice area to less water-intensive crops and by increasing salinization and reduced river flows for irrigation. The OECD-FAO baseline projects that nominal rice prices will fall over the next couple of years as India relaxes export restrictions (Figure 27). Over the medium term, demand from countries in the Far East, Africa, and the Middle East is expected to grow, but rice supplies from exporters are expected to lead to a concomitant rise, thereby generating only a small increase in nominal prices to USD 467/MT by 2033. Adjusting for inflation, rice prices are expected to decrease marginally (about 2 percent per year) over the forecast period. Figure 237 4.2 Stochastic versus deterministic projections. The USDA and OECD/FAO baselines are “deterministic” in the sense that they assume trend yields over the 10- year projection horizon. The deterministic baseline reflects “average” yields and midpoint ranges for interest rates and other macroeconomic variables. While the actual outcomes will undoubtedly differ, the baseline numbers are neither “best” case or “worst” case outcomes. To account for the uncertainties of weather and other factors, the OECD/FAO analysis also presents a partial sto- chastic baseline that examines a range of yield and macro-economic outcomes utilizing Monte Carlo simulations (Figure 28). The OECD/FAO baseline projects the average nominal rice price (India white rice, 5% brokens) to be USD 465/MT in 2022. Based on its stochastic analysis, which considers a range of potential outcomes over for 1,000 plausible yield and macroeconomic outcomes over the 10 years, the probability that rice prices will exceed USD 567 in 2033 is about 10 percent. The probability of rice prices below USD 363 is 10 percent. However, it 29 is important to note that the OECD/FAO baseline does not consider changes in policies, nor does it consider the likelihood of logistic disruptions. Figure 28: Baseline and stochastic intervals for selected prices 30 5. RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES While long-term baselines suggest relatively smooth evolution for supply, demand and market prices, the reality is often far more volatile. This section examines 3 main sources of risk including weather and climate issues, gov- ernment policies including those that impact exports, and logistical issues affecting transportation costs. 5.1 Weather and climate Weather is a principal source of yield variability and much of rice production is concentrated in South and South- east Asia, a region highly dependent on seasonal monsoons. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recur- ring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. On periods ranging from about three to seven years, the surface waters across a large swath of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm or cool by anywhere from 1°C to 3°C, compared to normal (US National Weather Service 2024). El Niño and La Niña are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (Saji et al. 1999) is an inherent mode of climate variability over the Indian Ocean, independent of El Niño/La Niña phenomena. It is characterized by sea surface temperature (SST) anoma- lies and associated convective anomalies with opposite signs in the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. In the positive IOD phase, lower-than-normal SSTs and suppressed convective activity are seen in the southeastern part of the tropical Indian ocean, while SSTs in the western part of the ocean are higher-than-normal with accom- panying enhanced convection. Negative IOD events have anomalies with signs opposite to those of its positive phase. El Niño events are typically associated with dryer weather throughout most of South and Southeast Asia. Figure 29 shows average regional yields relative to periods during which El Niño was present. Years in which there was an El Niño event concurrent with a positive IOD event include 1972, 1982, 1992, 2015, 2018 and 2023. Note the relatively high correlation with El Nino events and lower rice yields, particularly for South Asia. 31 Figure 29 La Niña events are generally associated with increased rainfall across South and Southeast Asia but the impacts on rice yields are less well correlated. Climate change will influence food production via direct and indirect effects on crop growth processes. Direct effects include alterations to carbon dioxide availability, precipitation and temperatures. Indirect effects include through impacts on water resource availability and seasonality, soil organic matter transformation, soil erosion, changes in pest and disease profiles, the arrival of invasive species, and decline in arable areas due to the sub- mergence of coastal lands and desertification. Almost 60 percent of rice production and over 81 percent of rice exports are currently concentrated in South and Southeast Asia. Intensification of ENSO activity under climate change could have large impacts on rainfall, af- fecting yields both by drought and excessive rainfall and flooding. For example, according to a recent assessment by the World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank (2020), about 52 percent of paddy rice production and 82 percent of summer autumn rice in Vietnam is produced in Mekong River Delta. Another 18 percent of summer autumn rice is produced in the Red River Delta. Climate change threatens multiple stressors on rice production, including high temperatures (particularly during development stages), saline intrusion, drought, and flood (crop submergence). However, some of these negative impacts may be partially offset by the benefits of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. A study by Jiang et al. (2018) suggests that climate change may damage rice yields as much as by 50 percent in the Mekong River 32 Delta in the long term. Irrigated rice fares better in the shorter-term showing some yield improvements up to 2030 but by the 2040s irrigated rice could also be facing yield reductions of up to 23% under higher emissions path- ways. Other research suggests there is a possibility that adaptations, such as changes to planting dates, may be sufficient to mitigate some of these losses. Using the IMPACT model, Nelson et al. (2009) project that irrigated rice could be hardest hits with global yields declining 14 percent for 2000 levels. Rice remains a relatively thinly trade crop and supply disruptions could pressure importers to seek alternative suppliers or other staple crops. In many Asian countries, rice is a labor-intensive crop. Work by Dunne et al. (2013) suggests that global labor productivity during peak months has already dropped by 10% as a result of warming, and that a decline of up to 20% might be expected by 2050 under the highest emissions pathway. Most studies conclude that pest pressure will increase on rice under future climate change (Chaya et al. 2021). There are a lot of pests of rice, among which brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens) is the most important pest. Leaf blast disease caused by fungus Magnaporthe grisea is the most significant disease, with losses of up to USD 66 billion dollars per year that are equivalent to the amount needed to feed 60 million people. Das et al (2017) document the spread of leaf blast and sheath blight in Bangladesh with warming trends over the past 20 years. Rice is responsible for about 1.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 48% of total GHG emissions from croplands. As rice yields have improved, GHG emission efficiency (measured as unit of CO2 equivalent per unit of output) has improved in all of the major rice growing regions in Asia (Figure 30). Nonetheless, GHG in- tensity for rice is 5-10 times higher than for other cereals (which largely emit nitrous oxide). 33 Figure 240 5.2 Export disruptions India’s current restrictions on rice exports demonstrate how disruptive such restrictions can be to global markets. Experience suggests that export restrictions are often put in place when domestic supplies are tight and prices high. Export restrictions are seldom effective at addressing food inflation, largely because a large portion of the food retail cost occurs post-farmgate (transportation, processing, distribution and storing). As a result, restrictions on exports may bring down the farm price of rice but have less direct impact on rice sold in retail outlets. Lower- ing farm prices can reduce farm income which can hurt farm household income, and if prolonged can reduce in- centives to plant rice. As we have seen in the case of India, export restrictions can impact world prices, particularly when the country imposing restrictions is a major exporter. As we saw in 2007/08 and more recently, during the early months fol- lowing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oftentimes when one country imposes restrictions, others follow. In the case of rice in 2007/08, almost 80 percent of global rice exports were affected by imposition of export restrictions in major exporters like India, Pakistan and Thailand. Global rice prices nearly tripled. A recent paper by Martin, Mamun and Minot (2024) examines the impacts of export restrictions on global and domestic prices. Not surprisingly, export restrictions were found to increase global price volatility, but surpris- ingly, for many countries, domestic prices remained volatile. This was particularly true for countries where price transmission is poor between world and domestic prices. 34 In the case of India, retail rice prices continued to rise throughout the first half of 2024 (despite export restrictions being in place since August of 2023) (Figure 31). Retail prices have declined since then, which helps explain the recent GOI decision to relax export bans. The India CPI for rice remains high--August 2024 rice prices were al- most 6% above August 2023 levels (outpacing both the food CPI and overall CPI for all goods) (GOI 2024). Figure 31 An encouraging sign during the past year was the absence of other rice exporters following India’s actions. At a leaders’ summit of ASEAN members in August 2023 (following India’s export ban announcement in July 2023), delegates committed to refrain from restrictive trade policies is also significant and included a pledge to use the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) to stabilize markets. On paper, earmarked APTERR re- serves total less than 800,000 MT, most of which are held by China, Japan, and South Korea. A preferred policy to export restrictions would be to provide targeted household subsidies that would not interfere with the market price and thus not provide disincentives to farmers (see Saini and Gulati 2016). Export re- strictions are indiscriminate in the sense they lower costs for all consumers, even those who can afford higher food costs. Most of the costs are born by domestic producers (in the form of lower prices). Cash transfers to con- sumers can be expensive, particularly if they are not targeted to lower-income households. Another drawback is that targeted subsidy program can be cumbersome and costly to administer. 35 5.3 Logistical disruptions The global rice trade was largely unaffected by recent bottlenecks in the Red Sea and Panama Canal that disrupted wheat and corn exports (Glauber and Mamun 2024a). Fertilizer exports originating from Russia and the Mediter- ranean would typically transit through the Red Sea for Asian markets, but it is unclear how much that has affected trade to date. Import data do not indicate large disruptions. Of more pressing concern would be if bottlenecks were to occur in the Malacca Strait or the Taiwan Strait which would potentially impact rice trade in East and Southeast Asia. Trade in nitrogenous fertilizers from Gulf suppli- ers could be adversely affected if transit through the Straits of Hormuz were disrupted. As we saw during this past couple of years, markets have been generally able to adapt to such disruptions, though not without additional costs. Unlike other cereals like maize and wheat (which are typically shipped in bulk vessels), rice is typically shipped in containers, and thus is more vulnerable to container shortages like we saw during the pandemic. This can raise transportation costs and import bills. 36 6. VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS In this section we examine the vulnerability of Asian and African consumers to production and trade disruptions. The first analysis focuses on the risks facing Asian rice producing countries. To examine the relative vulnerabili- ties facing Asian rice producers and consumers we constructed three vulnerability measures: • Yield variability. This measure reflects the underlying variability in rice yields. Historical rice yields were adjusted to remove secular yield trends (due to variety improvements and productivity gains). A yield variability measure was calculated from the residuals of the trend equations (based on the log differences between trend and actual yields). The data are taken from FAOSTAT. • Rice as a share of total food consumed. From FAOSTAT’s Food Balances database, rice supplies (expressed in kcal/capita/year) are expressed as a share of total food supply (kcal/capita/year). The measure is a proxy for the importance of rice in the daily diet of that country. Data are for 2022. The larger the share, the more vulnerable household diet’s are to supply disruptions and domestic con- sumer rice prices. • Rice imports as a share of total rice consumed. Also drawn from FAOSTAT’s Food Balances data- base, net rice imports (imports minus exports) are expressed as a share of total rice supplies for food purposes. Data are for 2022. A negative number indicates that the country is a net rice exporter. The larger the share, the more vulnerable the country is to foreign supply shortfalls or adverse policies that restrict exports. Of the countries presented in table 5, six are classified as Upper Middle-Income countries by the World Bank (China, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand). Twelve are classified as Lower Middle Income (Bang- ladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, and Viet Nam.) Afghanistan is classified as a Low-Income country. High-income countries were excluded from the vulnerability analysis. 37 Table 5 38 The average yield variability for the sample was 6.67 percent, but most (14) countries had yield variabilities less than the average. Five countries (Afghanistan, Bhutan, Iran, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste) had high yield variabili- ties. With a yield variability of almost 30 percent, Timor-Leste remains an outlier. However, this variability is likely biased by the large changes in rice area over the period. Planted rice area saw a large increase over the pe- riod 2000 to 2005 and subsequent decline between 2012 to 2018. Since 2018, rice area has again expanded. Yields show no clear trend (Figure 32). Accounting for harvested area, yield variability declines to about 21%, still the highest variability in the sample. Figure 32 Not surprising with the exception of Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan, rice is an important food staple in Asian countries, accounting for more than 20 percent of total daily food calories. Bangladesh, Cambodia and Myanmar were the most vulnerable, with rice dependency shares over 50 percent. Many countries in the sample were rice exporters so dependency on imports for rice supplies was relatively low or zero. Imports as a share of total five countries had rice import dependencies exceeding 40 percent—Afghani- stan, Bhutan, Iran, Malaysia and Timor-Leste. Of these, Bhutan, Timor-Leste and Sri Lanka imports accounted for more than 10 percent of total daily calories. Of the Asian countries considered in the sample, Bhutan and Ti- mor-Leste are the countries with the highest domestic yield variability and high import dependencies.(Malaysia, Philippines and Sri Lanka also have moderate (10%) import dependence. 39 Figure 33 The second part of the vulnerability analysis considered the vulnerability of African countries in Africa to import disruptions. For most African countries, rice production is typically small with a large portion of supply coming from imports. None of the African countries were net importers of rice and many countries were entirely depend- ent on imports for their rice supplies. Of particular concern are countries where import penetration is high and where rice accounts for a significant share of total diets. Those countries include: the West African countries of Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivorie, The Gambia, Liberia, Senegal Togo and Cameroun; the East African coun- tries of Djibouti, Comoros, Somalia; and Mozambique (Figure 34). 40 Figure 34. Rice imports as a percent of total daily consumption are particularly high for coastal countries of West Africa and along the East Africa coast (Figure 35) Figure 35 41 7. CONCLUSIONS Mid-range projections by FAO/OECD and others suggest the global rice market will continue to grow and be- come increasingly dependent on imports, particularly in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate and govern- ment distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities facing the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. More recently in 2023/24, we have seen the impact of India's export restrictions on global rice prices and trade. Importing countries bear much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. The challenge facing policymakers is how to prevent or mitigate against those actions in the future. Of particular interest is the need for more careful monitoring of global supply and demand and policy actions that have impacts on the rice market. To this end, we have outlined a number of relevant indicators in Appendix 2. 42 REFERENCES Agriculture Market Information System. 2024. 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Commodity Markets database (Pink Sheets). 2024. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/com- modity-markets https://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/130648/filename/130821.pdf?_gl=1*mn70n0*_ga*ODg0OTk4MDM5LjE2ODQzNzA3NzY.*_ga_DKPJK78BXP*MTcyMzU3NDgyNy4xNDUuMS4xNzIzNTc1NDA3LjAuMC4w https://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/130648/filename/130821.pdf?_gl=1*mn70n0*_ga*ODg0OTk4MDM5LjE2ODQzNzA3NzY.*_ga_DKPJK78BXP*MTcyMzU3NDgyNy4xNDUuMS4xNzIzNTc1NDA3LjAuMC4w https://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/130648/filename/130821.pdf?_gl=1*mn70n0*_ga*ODg0OTk4MDM5LjE2ODQzNzA3NzY.*_ga_DKPJK78BXP*MTcyMzU3NDgyNy4xNDUuMS4xNzIzNTc1NDA3LjAuMC4w https://doi.org/10.1787/de05b2c6-en https://doi.org/10.1787/09d8c37f-en https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/govt-lifts-curbs-on-rice-exports-removes-floor-price-for-non-basmati-grain/amp_articleshow/114511005.cms https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/govt-lifts-curbs-on-rice-exports-removes-floor-price-for-non-basmati-grain/amp_articleshow/114511005.cms https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-28201-5 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301346093_Food_Price_Volatility_and_Its_Implications_for_Food_Security_and_Policy?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIiwicGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIn19 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301346093_Food_Price_Volatility_and_Its_Implications_for_Food_Security_and_Policy?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIiwicGFnZSI6InB1YmxpY2F0aW9uIn19 https://doi.org/10.1038/43854 https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/export-ban-non-basmati-white-rice-lifted-why-impact-9594407/ https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/export-ban-non-basmati-white-rice-lifted-why-impact-9594407/ https://comtradeplus.un.org/ https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-baseline-data/ https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/advQuery https://gain.fas.usda.gov/#/home https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity-markets/baseline https://www.adb.org/publications/climate-risk-country-profile-viet-nam https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets 44 APPENDIX 1 RICE CROP CALENDAR Figure A.1 Rice crop calendars of major producing countries India Percent of total pro- duction (%) Kharif 65 Rabi 35 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Pakistan Rice 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Thailand Rice (rainy) 82 Rice (dry) 18 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec United States Gulf 77 California 23 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Vietnam South, Win- ter-Spring 25 North, Win- ter-Spring 22 South, Sum- mer-Autumn 21 North, Win- ter 16 Sourth, Sum- mer-Autumn 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Plant Mid-season Harvest Source: USDA 45 APPENDIX 2 MONITORING RICE MARKETS This section briefly describes data sources that are used to monitor rice markets. Most of the data is updated monthly, which allows one to track markets throughout the year. The data sources are described in table 6 with websites provided in the reference section (Section 8). Information on current global rice growing conditions is published in the monthly GEOGLAM Crop Monitor report. The conditions are based on Earth Observation data and are available monthly. GEOGLAM covers most of the world except for the Andean countries in South America. The reports also feature updates on important weather events like El Niño/La Niña. The AMIS Market Monitor also includes GEOGLAM forecasts for rice in the AMIS countries. Both reports are freely available to the public. Estimates of global supply and demand balances for rice can be found monthly by three major sources. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report releases up-to-date estimates around the 12th of each month on global rice supply and demand estimates. The report gives data on area, yields, production, domestic consumption, imports, exports and beginning and ending stocks for the current and past two marketing year. In addition to the global balance sheets, the WASDE report gives data on major rice producing and consuming countries. Detailed country-level data, plus historical level back to 1960, are available through USDA PSD database. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service also publishes occasional country level reports on rice production as part of its Global Agriculture Intelligence Network. These databases and re- ports are freely available to the public. The International Grains Council publishes its monthly Grains Market Report around the third week of the month, shortly following release of the WASDE report. The report and database are available for a subscription fee. The AMIS Market Monitor is published near the end of each month. It includes a summary of the most current WASDE and IGC estimates, as well as its own estimates prepared by commodity analysts at the Food and Agri- culture Organization of the UN (FAO). The report is available free of charge. Monthly trade data are found through the United Nation’s COMTRADE database. Value and quantity data on imports and exports by HS tariff code are available, but monthly data may lag several months and data are often missing for key exporters (for example, Vietnam) and importers (for example, Nigeria). Data is free of charge. 46 There are many private companies that offer access to COMTRADE data plus more up to date data from national sources on a fee basis. Monthly price data can be found in numerous reports. The World Bank Commodity Reports (the Pink Sheets) are published monthly. The World Bank data tracks price data on major rice markets as well as selected fertilizer and energy prices. The FAO Rice Price Outlook provides monthly price data for multiple rice quotations as well as a market summary of the global rice market. Both reports are free of charge. USDA reports weekly Thai rice prices each Friday. They are available through the GAIN report and are available free of charge. Daily rice prices can be found through multiple commercial sources such as Bloomberg and Reuters. Futures price data traded through the CME group can be found on their website on a fee basis. Retail price data for selected products and countries can be found monthly through the FAO GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Tool. Transportation cost data are reported by the International Grains Council which produces a monthly Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI). The GOFI is available to the public at no cost. The IMF Portwatch database pro- vides real-time monitoring of trade flows through major port cities around the world. It also tracks vessels and shipments through identified bottlenecks like the Panama Canal, Malacca Strait, and Suez Canal. 47 Table 6 ALL IFPRI DISCUSSION PAPERS All discussion papers are available here They can be downloaded free of charge INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE www.ifpri.org IFPRI HEADQUARTERS 1201 Eye Street, NW Washington, DC 20005 USA Tel.: +1-202-862-5600 Fax: +1-202-862-5606 Email: ifpri@cgiar.org http://www.ifpri.org/publications?sm_content_subtype_to_terms=4&sort_by=ds_year&f%5B0%5D=sm_content_subtype_to_terms%3D1&f%5B1%5D=sm_content_subtype_to_terms%3A88 http://www.ifpri.org/ mailto:ifpri@cgiar.org Executive Summary Acknowledgments 1. Introduction 2. Overview of the rice market 2.1 Production 2.2 Rice demand 2.3 Rice trade 2.4 Rice inventories 2.5 Rice prices 3. Current Rice Outlook 3.1 El Niño's impact on the 2023 rice production 3.2 Impact of India's rice restrictions on global rice markets 3.3 Disruptions in global fertilizer markets 4. Outlook for the next 10 years 4.1 Baseline projections 4.2 Stochastic versus deterministic projections. 5. Risks and uncertainties 5.1 Weather and climate 5.2 Export disruptions 5.3 Logistical disruptions 6. Vulnerability analysis 7. Conclusions References Appendix 1 Rice crop calendar Appendix 2 Monitoring Rice Markets