’ TAG/l 1 _ :; J Consultative Group on International Agiicultural Research Technical Advisory Committee CGIAR Priorities and Future Strategies FOOD’ AND AGRICULhJRE TAC SECRETARIAT ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS -mC( \ CGIAR PRIORZTTES AND FUTURE STRATEGIES Documents Review of CGIAR Priorities Relating to the Strategies and Future FOOD AND AGRICULTURE,ORGANIZATION Rome, 1987 OF THE UNITED NATIONS PREFACE This volume contains five documents relating to the consideration by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural .Research of its priorities and strategies. The first, entitled TAC _II__ Review of CGIAR Priorities and Future Strategies,'is the result of two and a half years of work by the TechniFaT Advisory Committee as part of its responsibility to keep CGIAR priorities under review. It was first circulated in August 1985; this volume contains the final version. The other four documents relate to the subsequent consideration and elaboration of TAC's review. The CGIAR first considered TAC's review of priorities and strategies in November 1985 and raised a number of questions on An extract from the report of that meeting is the its content'. second document reproduced here under the title "Strategic Considerations Study". A major outcome of the meeting was the decision to hold a discussion at Rellaglo, Italy to consider in The participants in this discussion, detail the questions raised. which was held in January 1986, included members of the CGIAR and "Future Strategies for the CGIAR", is of TAC. The third document the report of that meeting. : ' At its 39th appropriate had proved TAC's Views CGIAR at its meeting in March 1986, TAC decided that it would be to further explain its stance on those issues which controversial. The resulting paper, "Elaboration of on Priorities and Strategies", was considered by the and makes up the fourth document. May 1986 meeting, The CGIAR concluded its consideration at its mid-term meeting in May 1986. is the pertinent extract this volume, and is reproduced under the meeting, Priorities Study". of priorities and strategies The concluding document in from the record of the title "Strategic Issues - CONTENTS Page -TAC REVIEW OF CGIAR PKIORITTES AND FUTURE STRATEGIES Vii STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS STUDY Extract Erom "Main ConcLusions CGIAR Meeting, October Taken", Washington D.C. Reached and Decisions 28-November 1, 1985, 205 FUTURE STRATEGIES FOR THE CGIAR Report on a Meeting at Rellagfo, January 19-24, 1986 209 ELABORATION OF TAC'S Paper Prepared VIEWS ON PRIORITIES AND STRATEGIES for the May 1986 CGIAR Meeting 217 STRATEGIC ISSUES - PRIOKITIES STUDY Extract from "Main Conclusions Taken" (Revised), CGIAR Meeting, Ottawa, Canada Reached and Decisions May 19-23, 1986, 239 CONSULTATIVE GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL TECHNICAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH ADVISORY COMMITTEE TAC REVIEW OF CGIAR PRIORITIES AND FUTURE STRATEGIES Final Version 1986 December First Final printed, version, August December 1985 - AGR/TAC:IAR/85/18 (1986) 1986 - AGR/TAC:IAR/85/18 CONSULTATIVE GROUP ON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH TECHNICAL The Chairmap ADVISORY COMMITTEE 26 August 1985 Dear Mr. Husain, version of 9 the I take pleasure in transmitting herewith the final “TAC Review of CGIAR Priorities and Future Strategies”. As you are aware from my progress reports, to the Group’s meetings, TAC has addressed in this review a wide range of concerns relating to the long-term evolution of the CG System. As a result, scope and content of TAC has this paper are broader than those of earlier priority papers. reviewed the System’s long-term strategies for meeting,future challenges: it has analyzed current program structures and recommended shifts in proa detailed priority assessment among gram emphasis ; and it has conducted commodities. During the review process the Committee has benefitted from inputs The respective contributions, provided by all components of the System. have been acknowledged in the main body of but that of the TAC Secretariat, Here, I wish to recognize particularly the role played by the our report. Executive Secretary, Alexander von der Osten. .His intellectual input, his vision and dedication have been highly valued by the Committee. Our report confirms the continued vitality of the System, the relevance of its programs and the adequacy of its operating structures and The changes that, ,in TAC’s view, are needed to adjust the strategies. System’s response to future challenges, are moderate. They represent shifts in emphasis rather than structural changes. I trust that this review and the recommendations it makes will be a useful instrument in guiding the evolution of.the System and in implementing its future priorities in response to the pervasive needs facing world agriculture. My colleagues of TAC and I look.forward to a stimulating round of discussions at the Group’s next meeting in late October. We are confident that on this occasion the discussion will be further enriched by the which is closely related but Group’s consideration of the “Impact Study”, was conducted separately. /1 Yours sincerely, . Mr. S. Shahid Husain Chairman, CGIAR 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 USA ,/ C/O The World Bank, 66, avenue d’l&w, 75116 Paris, France TBI : 723-54-21 - TBlex : 620 628 - Cable adresse INTBAFRAD PARIS i X ACRONYMS USED IN ALAD AVRDC CASAFA CGIAR CIAT CIMMYT CIP FAO IAEA IBPGR IBSRAM ICARDA ICLARM ICRAF ICRISAT IFDC IFPRZ IIASA IIMI II'CA ILCA ILRAD INIBAP INTSOY IRHO IRRI ISNAR IUCN THIS TEXT Arid Asian Lands Agricultural Research Development and Program Center to Agriculture, Research Vegetable Development of Science Commission on the Application Forestry and Aquaculture Consultative Centro Centro Centro Food Group on International Agricultural Tropical de Maiz International International International and Agriculture Atomic Board Board Center Center Council Crops Fertilizer Food Institute Irrigation Institute Livestock Laboratory Network Soybean de recherche Rice Service Union Union de Agricultura de Mejoramiento de la Papa of y Trigo Organization Energy for for for for for Plant Soil Agency the United Nations International International International International International. International International International International International International International International International International International Institut International International International Resources International Genetic Research Resources and Management Research Resource Agroforestry for Center Institute Systems Institute Agriculture Analysis the Semi-Arid Tropics in the Dry Areas Agricultural Living Aquatic in Management Research Institute Research Development Research for Applied Policy Management of Tropical for Center for for the Africa on Animal of Diseases and Plantain Research Improvement Banana Program pour les huiles et oleagineux Research for for of Institute National Agricultural of Research Nature and Natural the Conservation Research IUFRO MULPOC SEAFDEC TAC UNDP UNEP UNESCO WARDA WHO Forestry Organizations Center for Eastern and Multinational Programming Southern Africa Southeast Technical United United United West World Asia Fisheries and Operational Development to the Center CGIAR Advisory Nations Nations Nations Committee Development Environment Educational, Rice Development Program Program Scientific Association and Cultural Organization Africa Health Organization xi TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY xv CHAPTER 1. 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. Origins Scope INTRODUCTION of and the Context Review of the Review 1 1 1 3 4 Process Structure and of Participants the Paper CHAPTER 2. 2.1. 2.2. EVOLVING TRENDS IN WORLD AGRICULTURE: Ahead Future Food Needs A LONG-TERM SCENARIO 6 6 6 6 7 8 The Need to Factors 2.2.1. 2.2.2. 2.2.3. 2.2.4. Look Determining Population growth Income growth Urbanization Implications of changes agricultural research in food demand for 8 2.3. The Technology of Technological 2.3.1. 2.3.2. 2.3.3. 2.3.4. 2.3.5. 2.3.6. 2.3.7. Challenge: The Growing Development Complexity ,, 9 10 10. 12 14 15 15 16 16 Population pressure on natural resources Intensifying agricultural production Ensuring long-term sustainable production Increasing the efficiency of resource use 'Improving post-harvest technologies and practices StimuLating the production of small farms Projected trends in technology development Policy Challenge Challenge development national research Research: 2.4. 2.5. The The 2.5.1. 2.5.2. Institutional Agricultural Developing 18 18 18 Efforts 19 capacities Global 2.6. International to Meet Future Agricultural Challenges xii CHAPTER 3. 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. THE CGIAR: of and the STRATEGIES CG System: Strategy TO MEET FUTURE CHALLENGES Past of to the Present CGIAR Continuity and 22 22 25 Evolution The Goal Program Operational the Future The System's Changes for 3.3.1. 3.3.2. 3.3.3. 3.3.4. 3.3.5. 3.3.6. Strategy: 27 Organizational approach: The internationalcenter concept Research orientation: The multidisciplinary commodity approach Inter-center cooperation: The move towards system with integrated objectives Collaboration in-the global research system: The move towards closer integration Service to national research systems: The evolving function of the CC System Long-term research strategy: Greater involvement in strategic and basic research 28 31 a 33 35 36 37 CHAPTER 4. 4.1. 4.2. ASSESSMENT OF CGIAR PRIORITIES Approach to Priority Setting 39 39 40 44 51 58 61 63 65 67 71 74 75 The use foods of indicators 78 80 84 88 91 93 96 The Analytical Program 4.2.1. 4.2.2. 4.2.3. 4.2.4. 4.2.5. 4.2.6. 4.2.7. 4.2.8. 4.2.9. Priorities Resource management and conservation research Crop productivity research Livestock productivity research Commodity conversion and utilization research Analysis of human nutrition linkages Food and agricultural policy research Strengthening national research capacities Integration of efforts Evolution of the CG System's program structure Priorities The analytical framework: Cereals Roots, tubers and starchy Food legumes Livestock New ventures Priority recommendations long-term goal 4.3. Commodity 4.3.1. 4.3.2. 4.3.3. 4.3.4. 4.3.5. 4.3.6. 4.3.7. and the System's xiii 4.4. CGIAR Priorities 4.4.1. 4.4.2. 4.4.3. in ,the Regional Context 96 97 98 100 Regional challenges facing the CG System Regional research needs and the CGIAR response: The case of Sub-Saharan Africa A need for balance: The other regions CHAPTER 5. GUIDING THE EVOLUTION FOR THE FUTURE Management and Resource OF THE CG SYSTEM: SOME ISSUES 104 5.1. The System's Programming 5.1.1. 5.1.2. Tools: Improving Allocation Planning, 104 105 107 Planning and Improvements Programming in fn the Overall the CGIAR Process 5.2. 5. 3. Future Division 5.3.1. Size of and Structure of the CG System 108 109 Labour among Centers the Distribution of Mandates Rationalizing 111 5.4. 5.5. 5.6. Future Linkages Size with of Centers the Broader Research Environment 111 112 . Beyond the Food Crisis: Regarding the Long-Term A Few Considerations Future of the CGIAR 113 TECHNICAL Part 1 - ANNEX Considerations Assessment of Indicators Commodity Notes Annex for Review Data Base * Addressed in the Program Approaches Priority Setting Priority 115 117 Among Commodities 119 129 167 173 , Part Part Part Part 2 3 4 5 - on the Tables SELECTED REFERENCES 199 xiv LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES TABLES Table Table I II Formal and Operational Mandates and Current of Centers 24 Program Approaches of CGIAR Resources Allocation Current Indicators Review Distriblltion 41 by Commodity: 76 in Commodity 79 Table III and of CGIAR Resources Recommended for Priority Table IV Assessment FIGURES Figure Figure Figure I II III The Goal and Objectives Program of Structure the CGIAR of the CGIAR 27 43 The Evolving Distribution of Resources Among Program Approaches: Current and Recommended Directions for the Long Term Allocation Current of CGIAR Resources to (1983) and Recommended Commodities: '45 Figure IV 77 xv SUMMARY Future Challenges Facing A Long-Term Scenario International Agricultural Research: Despite the significant gains achieved in the productivity of the major cereals - rice and wheat - the food situation in developingcountry regions remains precarious: 450 million people are on the edge of starvation and another one hiLLion are malnourished. There is neither an immediate nor factle solution on the horizon. Rather, in the foreseeahle future, the situation will grow increasingly urgent and complex as high rates of population growth in developtng countries cant inue unabated. Merely to keep pace with population growth during the next forty years, enough additional food will have to be produced each year to feed the equivalent of an additional Bangladesh. With growth in income Levels, the actual demand for food will be considerably higher. International agricultural research will have to be the cornerstone for global efforts to meet the complex and long-term challenge of produc.ing sufficient food to alleviate starvation and malnourishment in the face of rising populations in the future. Sustained ef’forts are needed in three key areas - technology, food and agriculture policy, and institution building. The technology challenge is significant. With limited land reserves for expansion, production will have to be intensified under diverse environmental conditions: favoured and unfavoured, irrigated and rainfed, humid and arid. these environments must At the same time, be careEulLy managed if gains in productivity are to be sustained over As population pressure on natural resources mounts, the the long term. tension between the urgency of the’short-term need for food and the longer-term goal of protecting the natural-resource, hase on which agricultural productivity depends will grow more acute. Needed are ecologically sound technologies and management practices for improved production that are tailored to the specific conditions of a wide range OF agroecological zones and socioeconomic conditions. This implies a growing demand for a broader range of technoLogies and a greater complexity in technological requirements as the more difficult environments are brought under intensive production. Post-harvest and processing technologies will also he needed to address the changing composition of the food demand stimul.ated by growth in urbanization and income. Alone it cannot Improved technology is only part of the answer. ensure increased food production nor adequate nourishment Eor all It has to be complemented and supported by.sound sectors of a society. the buildup of institutional capacities, food and agricultural policy, Policy research is needed to and the development of infrastructure. generate a comprehensive knowledge base which can be used to formulate policies that stimulate technology adoption for increased food production and ensure the equitable distribution of benefits to low-income consumers . xvi Strong national research systems constitute an equally important factor in the food equation. They need sufficient capacity to he able to take the lead in the process of generating technology: to define their needs and priorities; to stimulate the required research for technology development; and to fine-tune the technologies to Local conditions and the needs of Earmers. The research needs of the Euture are even greater than those of the past. Technologies will have to be more specifically targetted and increases in,production will have to come from environments and food crops for which the knowledge base is currently Limited. Progress may be slower, but opportunities for scientific breakthrough and impact are strong and the potential returns to additional investment in agricultural research remain excellent. Research will be the key to eradicatfng the chronic problems in food availability. The Consultative Its Potential to Group on International Respond Agricultural Research: The Consultative (CGIAR), often referred respond to the research its unique institutional guides the evolution of The goal Through contribute -countries well-being of the Group on International Agricultural Research to as the CG System, is well positioned to needs of the future. Its potential fs based on CharacterCstics and on the central goal which its Long-term strategy and program structure. CG System may be stated as follows: international agricultural research and related activities to to increasing sustainable food production in developing in such a way that the nutritional-level and general economic of low-income people are improved. -and multifaceted goal. Conceptually, it can be interdependent objectives which reflect the primary and related acttvities required for its realization, - This is a complex divided into eight areas of research i.e.: 1. managing and conserving and genetic resources) 2. increasing view to improving livestock natural resources (e.g. for sustainable agriculture; of into essential improved ecologi.cal land, water the productivity integrating them food crops with a production systems; stability of 3. the productivity and production systems; 4. through improvements achieving, the more complete utilization rural and urban areas; of 1n post-harvest agricultural technologies, products in both 5. promoting better human health and economic well-being through improved nutritional quali.ty of foods, enhanced equi.ty in expanded economic opportunities and better access to foods, management of overall.family resources; xvii 6. improving rational in food the policy environment to ensure the Eormulation of agricultural and food policies which favour increases production and commodity productivity; national agricultural research capacities in countries to accelerate the indigenous generation, and utilization of enhanced technologies; and 7. strengthening developing adaptation ’ 8. integrating efforts both within and among Centers of the CG System and, equally important, integrating the CG System’s activities with those of its various partners in the global system. The CG System’s contribution to reaching each of these primary ob.jectives varies greatly. In some areas the System is a ma.jor actor, in others it has a catalytic role, and in still others, it collaborates with institutions that take the Lead role. What is important, however, is that the System integrates efforts in all key areas into a coherent program of action to improve food production and availability for the I benefit oE the world’s poor. Despite its small. size in the global context, the CG System has a strong instttutional base from which to carry out the complex set of activities required to attain its Long-term goal. It has research facilities, scientific capacities, and a knowledge base on crop It unites different disciplines production built up over two decades. into an applied, problem-solving approach to research. It has the institutional flexibility, scientific entrepreneurship, and freedom from political constraints to. respond rapidly and eEfectively to evolving circumstances and needs. And, it has the ability to integrate efforts at all stages of the research process through its network of collaborative relationships with both national research systems and specialized research institutions working on the forefront of science. Given the above characteristics and the fact that the food commodities currently covered by the CG System account for approximately 70% of the total food consumed in developing countries, the System will undoubtedly remain a key actor in the integrated global efforts to meet the food needs of the future. Guiding the Committee’s Evolution of the CG System: Agenda for this Review the Technical Advisory In view of the complexity of the challenges that lie ahead, the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) considered that a systematic review of! strategic considerations and priorities for the CG System was needed efficiency and effectiveness in order to ensure its long-term vitality, in responding to the evolving situation of agriculture in the developing world. The main objective was to develop a long-term strategy for the evolution of the System (25-year planning horizon) and to provide the framework necessary to ensure that decisions made regarding program’ priorities,and resource allocations in the short to medium term produce consistent and steady progress towards the System’s goal. xviii four TAC"s agenda, thus, levels of analysis of - comprised increasingly for planning exercises carried greater specificity: the evolution of the System out at to define a strategy its long-term goal; towards - to establish guideLines for the long-term evolution System's program structure and program emphasis: to establish commodities, the System; to analyze level, in shortwhich to medium-term are the primary priorities vehicles of the - for among research in - the System's priorities, a regional context. established at the global The System's Challenges Long-Term Strategy: Planning to Respond to Future \ The magnitude and complexity of future challenges make it clear that long-term planning is needed if the CGIAR, as a small component in the global system, is to make a significant impact on solving the world's food problems. The potential is there; the challenge is to use it most effectively in a rational division of labour with the System's partners in the global research system, particularly with the national research systems in the developing world. In its effort to develop a coherent long-term strategy to guide the System in responding to future needs, TAC has addressed several essential concerns relevant to long-term planning: institutional and organizational issues, research thrusts and strategies, and the division of labour among all components involved in the process of technology generation. The long-term strategy that TAC proposes comprises elements of both continuity and change. Its research thrusts, research strategy and TAC the division of labour with other partners are currently evolving. endorses the direction of the evoLution and recommends that these trends be reinforced. Institutional considerations This review confirms the adequacy of the existing institutional mechanisms to respond to future challenges and to implement evolving priorities. To retain the System's strength, its responsiveness to its basic institutional characteristics should change and its vitality, be conserved. The System should remain small and concentrate on Of equal importance is the need selected problems of great importance. to maintain the unique balance between some central guidance and center which lends the System its institutional vitality and flexiautonomy, bility to respond to changing circumstances. xix The fact that the System to the demands and expectations selectivity. and clearly defined and allocating scarce resources. Organizational model: the is expected to remain small in relation of its clients, reinforces the need for strategies for determining priorities International-Center concept TAC reaffirms the concept of the International Center as the appropriate organizational mechanism for conducting the System's future research and research-related functions. This concept embodies a set of features essential for research progress: a problem-solving approach, bringing together a critical mass of scientifi c manpower and, resources; an effort that is multidisciplinary: an ability to catalyze and coordinate research on focussed topics; freedom from political constraints; and the ability to maintain the continuity of effort over time that is necessary for success. The Center concept will continue to be complemented by other organizational approaches, such as networking arrangements and the outposting of Center staff. Both enable the System to respond to the speciftc needs of heterogeneous environments and contribute to the buildup of national research capacities. TAC endorses the current trends towards strengthening these approaches. The Committee, however, emphasizes the need for a strong research base at the Centers to maintain scientific rigour and close linkages with the cutting edge of science. Research orientation: the multidisciplinary commodity approach centered on specific commodities but Multidisciplinary research, aimed at improving whole production systems, has been the central research thrust of the CGIAR from the beginning. TAC considers that this will continue to be the key to successful progress towards the System's central goal. TAC is convinced that the growing complexity of the technological challenge in the future will reinforce the validity of this approach as the basic organizing principle guiding the System's efCorts in technology generation. a multtdisciplinary approach to the problems In applied reseach, It provides the of commodity production has proven to be essential. holistic perspective necessary for understanding technology development and, it addresses the within the context of complex production systems; full breadth of the technology problem by integrating all relevant disResearch with a farming systems ciplines and sources of knowledge. perspective and research in an agroecological context are important to In endorsing this approach as the System's complement the approach. central research thrust, TAC by implication endorses, as a guiding principle in the long term, the concept of global commodity mandates for the Centers. TAC considers that a comprehensive commodity approach includes applied and strategic research on the common factors of well focussed, solutions to factor problems requiring basic production. However, research should be sought through collaboration with specialized institutions, rather than through the incorporation of any factor-based institutions into the CG System. xx Research strategy: enhanced collaboration in the evolving global system The System’s strategy in responding to future research demands will be influenced substantially by its evolving role and functions in the context of the global research system. The situation at the global level is characterized by two important long-term trends: the buildup of capacitfes in the national systems which permits them increasingly to take the lead in generating technology; and a move towards closer integration and cooperation among all partners in the global system - _ national systems, international centers, specialized institutions of basic science and research-support agenctes. Both trends have important implications for the System’s long-term role, its choice of priorities and its research strategy. Two important considerations in defining the System’s research are: the research capacities of the system’s partners; need for a rational division of labour which maximizes the effectiveness and impact within the global system. strategy and the System’s TAC foresees that the key elements of the System’s long-term research strategy will be a continued move towards closer partnership with nattonal systems and a gradual move towards the upstream functions of the research process, i.e. strategic and basic research. Both are interrelated and closely linked to the two long-term trends mentioned above. The first element implies that the CG System will increasingly perform an enhanced service function for the national systems, its’ primary clients. This will result in an increased demand for the System’s products and services in research and in institution bullding. A broadening range of demands from an increasingly heterogeneous group of clients will require clear priorfties to guide the Systems’s response. Besides providing germplasm, scientific skills and information, Centers wfll increasingly be called upon to perform a linkage function in promoting and facilitating collaboration among the various The CG components of the global system on specific research issues. System will thus assume a larger catalytic role, both as a role model for national systems in targetting high-priority areas for research and by stimulating required basic research in specialized institutions. Its’ size and resource base do not allow it to do it all, but it can have an important leadership function. The second element of change - a gradual shift in emphasis towards the strategic and basic areas of research - reflects both the increasing complexity of research issues and a more distinct division of Future research needs and labour among the System and its partners. opportunittes will be defined to a large extent by the growing complexity of technological requirements resulting from the need not only to increase productivity, but also to maintain current yield levels and ensure the long-term SustainabIlity of production in both favourable and more difficult environments. particularly with respect to In view of existing knowledge gaps, increased efforts in strategic and baste research rainfed agriculture, will be necessary to generate the technologies demanded by this broad TAC considers that. for the effort to be spectrum of requirements. xxi successful, all available expertise in the global system will need to be mobilized and the CG System will have to move towards closer collaboration with specialized institutions working at the forefront of science. Obviously, this move upstream must be balanced with the needs of weaker national systems which cannot assume full responsihility for adaptive research and, consequently, will require continued assistance and support from Centers. To perform successfully their key functions - technology generation and linking national research systems with basic science - Centers will need to maintain and further strengthen their scientific capacity to monitor and effectively utilize developments from basic research. Inter-Center objectives cooperation: the move towards a system with integrated The CG System is rapidly evolving from a loose federation of independent Centers into a system with integrated objectives. This move towards integration and coherence is at Centers' initiative and hence fully in line with the principle of Center autonomy. It is motivated by a common goal, shared objectives, common constraints, and some overlap in mandates. It is reinforced by demands from national research systems and considerations regarding efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Future challenges facing the System - such as the breadth in demand from national. systems, the complexities of future technologies, and the gaps in basic knowledge relating to rainfed agriculture and the more difficult environments - are likely to offer ample. scope for expanded inter-Center cooperation. Common problems cutting across commodities ' and regions lend themselves to common approaches. Future Program Emphasis: Program Structure The Long-Term Evolution of the System's TAC's assessment of program priorities confirms the continued viability of the CG System’s multidimensional approach for meeting the program structure should food needs in the future. Overall, huilt around the four major continue to look much the same, being program thrusts of the System: enhancing conservation increasing improving strengthening sustainable agriculture and management; the the productivity policy national of through resource world 7 commodity and capacities. production systems; environment; research However, this should not be interpreted as a maintenance of the status quo: TAC recommends several important shifts in emphasis among the program thrusts for the long-term evolution of the System's program structure. TAC also recommends an integration of the System's efforts and further enhancement of its at all levels of the research process, catalytic and service role in the global research effort. xxii Enhancing sustainable management agriculture through resource conservation and In particular, TAC recommends that the thrust of enhancing sustainable agriculture through resource conservation and management he considerably strength,ened. With the escalating food demands and increasing population pressure on the natural-resource base projected for the future, the foremost challenge for international agricultural research will be to develop technologies which continue to achieve gains in productivity while at the same time maintaining or improving the sustainahility of agriculture in the long term. Intensification without resource degradation will he the measure of technological progress. The challenge is twofold. Many of-the more favollred environments on which research has focussed in the past, are and will continue to be under significant population pressure (e.g. in Asia). In these areas, the urgent need for food could easily reslllt in processes of intensification which rapidly degrade the natural-resource base. Adequate attention must he given to developing technologies which ensure long-term sustainable productivity in these densely poplllated regions. The second challenge is the need to increase the productivity of rainfed agriculture, especially in the less-favoured environments. Many of these areas are fragile ecologies which have already suffered significant environmental degradation and are under continuing pressure. Technologies are needed not only to increase productivity in the short term, but also to rehuild the natural-resource base for future agricultural production. TAC considers that the generation of technologies to meet the joint objectives of increased productivity and sustainability of production is the emerging frontier in international agricultural research. It will require a clear commitment and research of a high quality. The knowledge base will have to be strengthened, and the need for results in the short term will have to he continually halanced against the longterm process of generating appropriate technology to ameliorate complex problems. The CG System should demonstrate leadership, creativity and TAC recommends that the commitment in meeting this global challenge. System should strengthen its research activities in resource management and conservation and integrate concerns for sustainability into its multidisciplinary commodity research programs. TAC further recommends that the CG System assume a more prominent role within the global system to encourage expanded efforts in management and conservation for sustainable agricultural deveespecially among national research systems. catalytic resource lopment, Clearly, sustainability and productivity are closely interrelated: long-term productivity depends on sustainable production systems. The intent of TAC's recommendation, however, is to stress the need for a long-term perspective when evaluating productivity, and to underscore the principle that short-term gains in productivity at the cost of the stability and quality of the natural-resource base are unacceptable. xxiii Increasing the productivity of commodity production systems TAC's review reaffirms the central role in the CG System of the program thrust of increasing the productivity of commodity production systems. TAC recommends that research be directed towards four primary objectives: to increase yield potential; to narrow gaps between potential and actual yields; to improve the stability of yields; and to defend against the erosion of yields by pest and disease attacks (maintenance research). Within thi.s central program thrust, TAC recommends some shifts in emphasis over the Long term which largely reflect an increased divLsion oE labour between the CG System and its primary partners in research, the national systems. In the long term, TAC foresees the national systems assuming responsibility for most research Eunctions which are In response, Location-specific. the CG System should engage more fully i.n those areaas of strategi c research most efEectiveLy addressed at the international level. The sharper division of lahour and the System's general move upstream in the research process will he of critical importance for achieving scientific hreakthroughs on those crops and environments with short research histories. This trend will be most pronounced in crop productivity research. The types of function that should he subsumed by national systems the production of finished varieties; adaptive research to include: fine-tune technologies to Local conditions; the development of improved agronomic practices; and the execution of farm-level social-science research. The CG System, in turn, should focus more on the strategic as well as applied levels of research. The Centers, for example, should work in the earlier stages of germplasm enhancement (e.g. germplasm evaluation and the pooling of desirable characterfstics into parental and in the maintenance research necessary to defend attained materials), yield gains against erosion by pests and diseases. In moving upstream, the System should rely heavily on coLlaborative research with national systems and on knowledge generated by specialized institutions working in factor research and basic science. For research on livestock productivity, TAC recommends a moderate This reflects the important role that livestock increase in efforts. can play as catalysts for the development of small-farm systems and the substantial increase in demand for livestock products projected for the future. Due to the potential for eliminatfng major constraints to livestock production in Africa, TAC advises that the CG System continue in its path-breaking basic research in. ruminant diseases - trypanosomfasis and theileriosis. This basic research should continue to be balanced, however, with appli'ed research on selected problems in.livestock emphasizing animal nutrition and the closer integration of productivity, crop and livestock components in production systems. TAC considers that three collateral concerns - improving improving the nutritional quality commodity conversion and utili.zat%on, and ensuring equity in the distriof the diets of low-income people, bution of the benefits of increased food production merit increased TAC recommends that these concerns can be attention by the System. addressed through shifts in emphasis within the major program thrusts. xxiv TAC recommends that research on post-harvest technologies receive more emphasis in the future since these technolog1e.s expand the total agricultural output directed towards human welfare by reducing waste from food losses and by using by-products more efficiently. They also serve to expand and stabilize the supply of food for both urban and rural consumers. Iiproving the policy environment With respect to the program thrust on improving the policy environment, TAC recommends that CG System efforts in policy research have a higher priority in the future. Increased policy research is needed to generate a more comprehensive knowledge base for formulating sound food and agricultural policies. This is an area of high potential payoff for the CG System, since poorly defined policies often act as major constraints to technology generation and adoption. Furthermore, research on poli-cy factors impinging on human nutritfon and influencing equity in access to the benefits of technological development Is critical to the System's ability to achieve its goal of improving the nutritional standards and general economic welfare of low-income people. Chronic problems of malnutrition result at least as much from inequality in access to food as from insufficient production of food. Strengthening national research capacities Efforts devoted to strengthening national institutions through conferences and documentation, should training, institution building, TAC believes that the remain an important thrust within the CG System. key to success for international agricultural research in the future will reside in the national systems assuming an increasingly larger role TAC, therefore, recomand responsibility for technology generation. mends an intensification of this thrust over the short to medium term. The objective is to assist national systems in building up their capacities sufficiently so that they can: clearly define their research needs act as full partners Ln technology generation: and and priorities; better utilize the CG System's ability to faciLitate and backstop their research programs and to establish linkages with basic science. In the long term (25-year planning horizon), as these efforts pay off and national systems become increasingly self-reliant, TAC considers that the CG System's involvement in this thrust should decrease, primarily through a reduction of the efforts devoted to training. TAC foresees the stronger national systems taking over the particularly for production major share of responsibilities in training, courses, with the CG System concentrating on courses in sophisticated techniques and methods (such as biotechnology) as well as on the development of training materials to be used by national systems. Commodity Priorities: Adjustments to Meet Future Needs for the Commodity improvement programs are both the primary vehicles research within the CG System and the primary conduits for resource represent the logical unit of analysis for allocation. They, thus, to medium-term (5 to 10 years) more detailed assessment of short- xxv priorities. TAC, in making its recommendations, used 'a broad range of indicators for determining priorities. Fundamental to the process was the consideration of the principles of the relevance, productivity and efficiency of the research effort in maximizing progress towards the long-term goal of the CGIAR. TAC employed two funding scenarios for formulating its recommendations for future resource allocations among commodity programs. The first assumes no real increase in funding. This was used to force hard decisions on the relative priorities among commodit.ies. This scenario, which precludes overalL growth.In the system, nevertheless permits, through consolidation of programs or other mechanisms; a continuing dynamism and prevents a complacent continuation of the status quo. The second funding scenario is more optimistic, representing a 25% real increase in funding. This scenario was employed because TAC strongly believes that resource constraints should not dictate priority setting; rather priorities should guide resource allocation. Under the optimistic scenario, TAC recommends a further strengthening of some commodity programs and the introduction of new initiatives. The most basic conclusion oE the review was that crit-ical food problems persist in developing countries and that eEforts in research and related activities to increase food production cannot he diminished in the foreseeable future. Not only do urgent needs persist, but opportunities for impact and returns to additional investment in research remain excellent. TAC has, thereEore, recommended that the CG System maintain its focus on food crops, rather than expand its coverage to Include export/cash crops, at least for the current 25-year planning horizon. TAC's recommendations would result Under both funding scenarios, Various commodin a broader and more balanced coverage of commodities. itles that have.been underfunded in the past, in relation to their importance and relevance to the System's goal, are recommended for strengthening in thi.s review. This adjustment could be achieved primarily through a recommended reduction in the resources allocated to rice and wheat, both of which have en,joyed relatively high levels of support from the CG System and which have experienced significant increases in production. TAC also recommends some consolidation in commodity programs as a means of eventually enabling the remaining programs to Three crops which are achieve the critical mass necessary for impact. important to specific regions but of limited global importance - lentil, faba bean and cocoyam - are consequently recommended for phasing out. TAC's recommendations on resource allocation In aggregate terms, under the no-growth funding scenario would result in a decline in the percentage of funds allocated to cereals from approximately 51% to 46% an increase in funding to roots and with some important internal shifts; tubers from about 14% to 18%; an essentially constant level of funding to food legumes, but with some consolidation and a strengthened emphasis and a moderate increase in funding to on oil-producing legumes; livestock. , The primary difference in the relative funding recommended among the major food groups under the.more optimistic funding scenario is that food legumes would be substantially strengthened; the funds allocated to xxvi cereals, than be System areas. tables, as a group, would remain essentially at current levels rather decreased; and three new ventures would be included in the CG to provide a more complete coverage of high-priority research In order of recommended priority, these are: tropical vegecoconut and aquaculture. In formulating its priority recommendations .for commodity programs, TAC has consistently sought to address three interrelated elements of the System's long-term goal: improving the food supplies and nutritional levels of the world's poor; improving the economic welfare of low-income people in developing countries; and increasing the sustainable production of food crops in less-favoured environments. Improving food supplies and nutritional levels of the world's poor Since rice and wheat contribute almost one half of the calories in the diets of developing-country regions, TAC believes that the large gains achieved in productivity with these.two commodities have to be maintained. Therefore, TAC continues to give these two cereals high priority within the System with a proposed future allocation of approximately 25% of the System's funds for commodity research. This recommendation does, however, represent a significant decrease in funding. It reflects both the significant progress that has been made in research on rice and wheat through the CG System's sustained efforts in collaboration with national systems, and the strength of some of the national research programs within the countries of largest production. TAC recommends that the funds freed from rice and wheat research,be used to strengthen research programs on other important staple food commodities (eg. maize, sorghum, millet, and roots and tubers) in order to achieve broader impact, particularly in the more marginal areas. TAC believes that strengthened efforts on behalf of these commodities will not only result in vigorous programs with a but will catalyze enhanced efforts in stronger potential for impact, national systems and among other partners in the global system as weL1. TAC's recommendations for a revision of priorities among commodities would also broaden the System's coverage with respect to dietary concerns. TAC considers that expansion of the supply basis is the best approach for improving the nutritional quality of the diets of Increased attention is, therefore, recommended for: low-income people. commodities which are important sources of protein (livestock and fish) to which the CG System has so far paid only minor vegetable oils, and commodities which are important attention (groundnut and soybean); sources of vitamins and minerals (tropical vegetables). Improving countries the economic welfare of low-income people in developing Food and poverty issues are tightly interwoven and TAC's priority recommendations reflect the importance of the linkages between nutrition and income. The problem of poverty is addressed from the point of view On the of the needs of low-income consumers as well as producers. consumption side, the thrust is to improve productivity of the major This directly benefits staples in order to bring the cost of food down. poor consumers who spend the largest share of their household budgets on food; lowered food costs raise their real income. xxvii As a means of increasing the income of rural producers, TAC recommends increased research efforts on those food crops which are also important cash crops. This effort not only improves the welfare of rural families, but also encourages agricultural development by generating more resources for reinvestment in production. Included under this category are both food and feed commodities. They are: maFze, cassava, yam, potato, sweet potato, groundnut, soybean and ruminants. All of these, except potato have been recommended Ear increased funding. all the new ventures recommended - tropical vegetables, Similarly, coconut and aquaculture - are important to small holders in contributing to their dietary and income needs. Increasing environments sustainable production of food crops in less-favoured Another major category of TAC's recommendations concerns improving productivity in the more diff1cul.t and marginal environments. This shift in emphasis reflects the fact that a significant proportion of the population of developing countries Lives in these environments and has to obtain food primarily from local production. Research for technology generation will be complex, often costly, and slow in producing ,results. Furthermore, many of these regions are coming under significant pressure from population growth and some are already in a state of degradation. Appropriate technologies should be developed not only to increase the productivity of the whole farm, but also to ensure that such productivity can be sustained. Given the complexity of the challenge, TAC believes that if a significant technological breakthrough‘in rainfed agriculture is to be achieved, strong and focussed research efforts must begin now and be sustained at substantially increased levels of investment over the long recommends significant increases in research to term. TAC, therefore, those commodities which are key components of production systems in the With this view, particular attention has more difficult environments. perform well on marginal lands been given to commodities which: (cowpea, cassava, pigeon pea an< small ruminants); improve the integration of crop and livestock production (maize, sorghum, millet, sweet potato and ruminants): and enhance barley, groundnut, cowpea, biological nitrogen fixation within cropping systems (cowpea, chickpea, soybean and groundnut). pigeon pea, where people are among the For the arid and semi-arid regions, world's poorest and most vulnerable to famine, TAC recommends an increase in research on small ruminants, sorghum and millet. Similarly, although barley is not a major world food crop, TAC recommends keeping almost constant levels of funding in light of its extremely important role as a feed crop in low-rainfall areas. TAC believes zone that has been creases in funding tree crops important that the humid tropics are another agroecological It, therefore, recommends inneglected in research. to two root crops - sweet potato and yam - and to the - starchy banana, and coconut. in these environments pattern of past of commodities in less-favoured success can be and an inenvironments. TAC is convinced that the System's continued through a more balanced coverage crease in the emphasis on food production xxviii The research needs and opportunities are clear. TAC strongly encourages that the CGIAR make every possible effort to mobilize the additional funding required to achieve the level of support and coverage for those areas of high priority recommended in this review. CGIAR Priorities in a Regional Context While TAC assesses priorities for the System at the global level, its recommendations involve a thorough analysis of needs, opportunities and impact potential at the regional level. Africa is cLearly the region with the most urgent and alarming food problems. The rapidly growing food deficit results from major constraints in all three areas critical to agricultural development: technology, policy, and institutional capacities. Given the breadth, complexity and depth of the problems, as well as the short research histories on many of the most important food crops and environmental it is only too clear that solutions will be constraints in Africa, neither rapid nor easy. especially those concerning sustainability TAC's recommendations, of agricultural production and an increase in support to a broad range of commodities which are important to subsistence farmers, have particular applicability to the African situation. TAC's review underscores the need for At the same time, however, Asia, Latin significant CG System involvement in the other regions: America and North Africa/Near East. Despite the fact that, for the in these regions have reached relative selfmoment, many countries severe problems of poverty and malnourishment persist and sufficiency, the continued high levels of population growth and rising food demand If the will make the situation increasingly unstable in the future. gains of the past are not to be lost in the future, sustained research efforts will be needed to achieve further increases in food production. through its recommendations, to ensure TAC has therefore endeavoured, that at least several of the ma.jor problems in each of .these regions are addressed by the System in the future. TAC is strongly of the opinion that the CGIAR, as an international system, must maintain a long-term and global perspective and develop The immediate a balanced approach to the needs of diverse regions. problems of Africa cannot be allowed to overshadow the continued and malnourishment and poverty in the long-term problems of food production, Based on its review of regional needs and priorities, other regions. TAC concludes that increased investment in agricultural research is fundamental if a broad-based and significant impact is to be made over the long term on the pervasive food and poverty problems in the developing world. Issues Level for the Future: An Agenda for Continued Dialogue at the System long-term The present strategies. review It focusses develops on the System's priorities a framework to guide the and its evolution of xxix the System, makes recommendations on future program emphasis, and reviews the operating structures through which decisions on priorities can he implemented. In the process, TAC has identified a number of issues that will require further attention at the System level. These issues concern the long-term institutional health and vigour of the System as a whole. They are beyond TAC's mandate and require attention by all relevant components of the System: Centers, donors and TAC. The six issues composing the agenda suggested by TAC for a continuing dialogue beyond this review are: the ade,quacy of the System's management tools to ensure the proper guidance for the System's evolution; the future size and structure of the System; the futllre division of labour among Centers; the future size of Centers; linkages with the broader research environment: the existence of the CGIAR beyond the food crisis. These issues, though interrelated, obviously differ in time horizon and action requirements. The common importance, urgency, objective in addressing them is to ensure proper guidance for the System's evolution in the long term, to further increase its overall efficiency and cost-effectiveness, and to maintain its institutional vigour and vitality. CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Origins of the Review In June 1982, the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) to the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) decided to embark on a hroadly based study of matters of strategic importance to the CG System. The ob,iectives were to identify the changes needed to make the System more effective and responsi.ve in meeting the present and future demands of the developing world, and at the same time to place tn a hroader framework the problem of ad.justing the annual programs and budgets of the 13 CG Centers to the resources made available by the CGIAR. The central issue was to define an appropriate path Ear the development of the System to keep It lively, efficient and effective in an evolving environment. The proposal was supported and actively endorsed by hoth the Centers and the members of the CGIAR. 1.2. Scope and Context of the Review To define a long-term path for development and link effectively the short-term decisions on resource allocation to long-term goals, clear set of priorfties for the System must be defined and reviewed periodically in the Light of changing circumstances. a Priority assessment in the CG System is an increasingly complex exercise. Contributing to this complexity are the expanding breadth of the System's activities, the heterogeneity of CG Centers' mandates, and collaboration with the nature of the global research effort - involving speciatized institutions, and diverse national research systems, development agencies in developing and developed countries - in which the System participates. To address this higher expanded the scope and depth review beyond that of earlier current study are: level of complexity adequately, TAC of the priority assessment process for this The salient features OF the exercises. System it more The context of the approach: as one component of an emerging global explicitly research views system. the CG it presents a comprehensive The breadth of the approach: of priorities both among current activities and commodities in System and among those not currently included. review the it develops a frameThe conceptual framework for the approach: work tocompare systematically the heterogeneous research and related, By linking acttvities to the goal of the activities of the CG System. System, it provides an effective means for establishing priorities and allocating resources. 2 The analytical approach:it uses a formal approach to priority -----.assessment and resource allocation based on indicators which are used guide systematically TAC's collective scientific judgment. The indicators selected address a broad range of concerns relevant to priority selection in the CG System context. The dual levels of analysis: the recommendations on priorities ---I_ -are based on global and regional levels of analysis. This reflects the balance between the international nature of the System and the relevance of regional considerations at its operational level. The time horizon: it works with a dual time horizon - the short --I-~ term (5 to 10 years) and the long term (25 years). It introduces the long-term perspective regarding the evolution of the CG System and uses this as a basis for rational decision making regarding short-term priorities. to TAC's first ob.jectCve was to establish priorities for the System and its future development and, subsequently, to determine how the present operational strategy and program structure ought to develop over the long term to best adhere to those priorities. TAC has, thus, structured its recommendations for shortto medium-term program changes in terms of its view of the long-term ob.jectives and evolution of the System. This union of a Long-term perspective with short-term decision making is particularly important because research has extended timelags and gestation periods. TAC's second ob.jective was to employ the priorities established to generate broad recommendations for allocating resources among program activities and commodities. The financial context in which TAC made The first scenario is these recommendations involved two scenarios. conservative: TAC assumed no real increase in funding above current levels. In the second, TAC assumed that funding would increase by 25X in real terms. The first scenario was used to force a critical analysis and evalua.tion of the current program structure. .It thus ensured that a TAC used complacent perpetuation OF the status quo would be avoided. the established priorities to confront hard decisions on resource allocation among the many diverse activities competing for funds in the System. The no-growth funding assumptions meant that 'any recommendations for additional funding of high-priority activities would entail To achieve an effective internal shifts away from current activities. TAC considered that a certain amount of utilization of available funds, It recommended for funding only those consolidation was required. This programs for which a minimum critical mass could be assured. policy avoids spreading the System's resources too thinly and favours the concentration of efforts on a limited number of viable programs with true impact potential. that resource limitations should TAC also recognized, however, not dictate the process of setting priorities; rather priorities should TAC would be negligent if guide the decisions on resource allocation. resource limitations were allowed to inhibit the identification of highpriority'areas for research which need to be brought to the attention of The future challenges for international the donor community. 3 agriculture are of such proportions that greater efficiency of resource use will not be sufficient to free adequate funds to support the financial commitment will he a required efforts to meet them: expanded necessity. Therefore, TAC also employed a more optimistic scenario for which assumed an increase in resource allocation recommendations, This scenario draws attention to the additional high-priority funding. needs which cannot be funded solely through internal consolidation within the System. 1.3. Process and Participants The scope and the complexity of the many interrelated issues involved required that this study be conducted as a sequential process. It was carried out in close interaction with the various components of the CGIAR, including Directors and Roard Chairpersons of the Centers, the CGIAR Secretariat, leaders of developing-country national agricultural research systems, and representatives of donor institutions. Centers provided much of the key information on current resource The leaders of national allocations, programming, and long-term plans. research systems participated in the process of consultation in hoth formal and informal ways. They provided important insights into future the evolving capacities of national systems and future research needs, demands on the CG System. Donors provided the much needed feedhack to and thus helped to ensure the periodic progress reports on the study, relevance of the final product. TAC's Standing Committee on Strategic During the two-year period, played an important role in Considerations, chaired hy Dr. E.T. York, Its facilitating and guiding TAC's deliberations on this sub.ject. rotating membership involved the collaboration of Drs. M.H. Arnold, M.Y. Chaudhri, L.T. Evans, E.Q. Javier, G.E. Joandet, A.F. McCalla, W. von Urff and M.S. Zehni. C.C. Thomsen, A small group of leading scientists and research managers, comprising members of TAC, Center Directors, Board Chairpersons, leaders of national systems and technical cooperation agencies, and the CGIAR Secretariat, all attending in their personal capacities, assisted TAC through their participation in a brainstorming session on the long-term evolution of the System. A numher of reference and background documents and discussion papers provided important inputs into the process and are listed in require special mention: a "Selected References". Among them, three paper by FAO entitled "Quantitative.Indicators for Priorities in International Agricultural Research", a thinkpiece by Dr. A,F. McCalla "Some Thoughts on Long-Range Priority Set.ting for the CGIAR", entitled and a discussion paper by Dr. M.E. Pineiro entitled "An Analysis of Research Priorities in the CGIAR System". Helpful contributions were received throughout the process from Drs. R.W. Herdt and D.L. Plucknett (CGIAR Secretariat) and D. Norse A number of consultants assisted in the preparation of this (~~01. Anthony, J.D. Hopkins, D. Kirschke and E. Moscardi Drs. K.R.M. paper. 4 collaborated substantially in the earlier stages; Dr. D. Merrill in putting together the final version. Sands contributed at the System TAC acknowledges these contributions and expresses its pleasure collaborative spirit in which the various components of the have interacted throughout this review process. 1.4. Structure of the Paper The structure of the paper reflects the various levels of priority assessment which TAC addressed during the review process. TAC established priorities to guide the strategic: planning of the System over the long term, the devellopment of its program structure, the relative emphases among commodity improvement programs. CG and A summary of TAC’s view of the long-term challenges and evolving research needs in developing -country agriclllture is presented Eirst as the hackground against which TAC determined future strategies and priorities for the CG System (Chapter 2). Recommendations to guide the long-term strategic planning for the CG System are then developed. The System’s goal, program structure, operatfonal strategy, and institutional arrangements are reviewed in terms of future challenges facing the ,global research system. The recommendations aim at maintaining high levels of vigour, relevance and impact of CGIAR activitfes and programs (Chapter 3).. To heterogeneous developed activities the central sons among potential facilitate establishing priorities among the complex array of research and related activities of the CG System, TAC a conceptual framework for the systematic review of all competing for support. By defining their relationships to the framework permits comparilong-term goal of the System, the diverse activities in terms of their relevance and contribution to that goal (Chapter 3). a comprehensive assessment of Based on this conceptual framework, priorities for CG System eFforts in both the short and long term is The analysis includes ongoing activities as well presented (Chapter 4). The .assessas research areas not currently covered by the CC System. ment Is conducted in a sequential manner, starti.ng at the aggregate level with an analysis of the eight major program approaches which make up the System. At a more disaggregated level of analysts, commodity improvement programs - the primary vehIcl.es for research in the CG System - are then reviewed. For thfs exercise, TAC constructed a comprehensive set of These indicators of priority which reflect the System’s central goal. were employed to facilttate a systematic analysis of commodity programs, A set of recomand to structure TAC’s collective scientific judgment. mendations are developed at the System level for priorities and priority shifts, including those that are required in the short term to set in motion the process of change that will lead to’the attainment of the Syqtem’s long-term ohiectives (Chapter 4). 5 TAC also makes some broad recommendations regarding the allocaThe tion of resources to major program approaches and commodities. ob.jective is to reinforce the System’s overall efficiency and costeffectiveness through strong, viable and adequately funded programs. while aiming essential1.y at the short and medium The recommendations, term, are made against the background of the long-term perspective. The review closes concerning the long-term concerns which go beyond components of.the System by drawing attention to several issues These are system-wide evoltltion of the CGIAR. TAC’s mandate and require attention by all (Chapter 5). 6 CHAPTER 2. EVOLVING TRENDS IN WORLD AGRICULTURE: A LONG-TERM SCENARIO 2.1. The Need to Look Ahead The challenges facing world agriculture to meet food needs in the future will grow increasi.ngly complex and urgent. The world food sltuation continues to be precarious. It is estimated that more than 450 million people live in chronic hunger: another one hillion are malnourished. The escalating demand for increased food production will continue well into the 21st century as the next 40 years witness the largest absolute increase in human numbers of all time. Not only will the.need for Eood expand with population growth, blrt the composition of demand will change with expanding urbanfzation and rising income levels. At the same time, these forces of change will lead to intensified pressure on the natural-resource base, heightening the threat of environmental degradation and jeopardizing Future productivity. These changes will have proEound effects on world agriculture and intensify the demand for technology development significantly. To meet rising food needs, agriculture will have to be not only highly prodrlctive but also sustainable and eEEicient with respect to the use of resources and inputs. Moreover, it will have to be supported by strong research systems, rational food and agricultural policies, and adequate infrastructure to ensure efficient distribution of inputs and products. The needs of the future pose a clear and significant to international agricultural research to develop technologies, generate the knowledge on which sound food and agricultural be based, and to assist in strengthening research institutions developing countries. challenge to policies in can Forward thinking and planning are required to meet these challenges. In the strategic planning exercise that Eollows, TAC proposes priorities for the CGIAR which reflect TAC’s perception of It is, evolutionary trends for world agriculture in the long term. - therefore, important to turn first to TAC’s pro,jections of Euture demands on international agricultural research before proceeding to detailed discussion of how the CGIAR, as one component of the global can best meet those demands. research system, the the 2.2. Factors Determining Future Food Needs and urbanization are the key Population growth, income growth, variables shaping food demand and, hence, the future scenario of world agricuLture. Population growth drives food demand upwards; income with urbanization, it growth also fuels food demand and, in conjunction changes the composition of demand as well. 2.2.1. Population growth by the population The enormity growth is of the demands to be placed on global resources most clear when growth is expressed in terms of 7 rate of increase. During the 199Os, the world's population is to increase at the average rate of 94 million people per year: equivalent to having to feed a new India every seven years. projected this is A disturbing feature of this growth in population is that 93% will occur in developing-country regions (Annex Table 1) where by the year 2025, the population is pro.jected to increase from the current level of approximately 3,300 to 6,651 millton (Annex Table 2). Moreover, growth will be fastest in areas where land resources are the least adequate to meet escalating food needs: Central America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and North Africa/Near East (Annex Table 2). By 2025 (in only 40 years), the populations of these regions may have increased to 2.5 to 3.5 times the 1980 levels. With these rates of population growth, FAO predicts that these areas will he under criti.cal pressure as early as the year 2000. 2.2.2. Income growth Income growth is a second key factor driving food demand; it SignSfCcantly accelerates the increases In demand caused by population growth alone. For example, in Mexico in 1981, while population growth increased food demand by 2.6%, the increase in real income per capita elevated the growth in demand significantly further to approximately 4.5%. .The impact oE income growth on food demand in developing The World Bank projects annual countries is expected to be substantial. rates of growth in per-capita income of between 2.7% and 3.5% over the While the rate of growth in per-capita income in next ten years. developing countries during the 1970s was 3.4%, it was only 0.9% in the most recent five-year period of 1980-85. Income growth not only causes growth in demand, but is also the As incomes rise, major force shaping the composftion of food demand. the general trend is for consumers to shift from staple grains towards Quality foods such as fruit, more meat and livestock products l/. and certain cereals, particularly wheat, are also consumed vegetables, Trade and aid reinforce these patterns of food in larger quantities. preferences. -1/ An extreme example of this phenomenon was the dramatic change in the composition of food demand that occurred in the oil exporting countries of North Africa/Near East with the rapid rise in perAn IFPRI study found that the annual rate capita income after 1973. of growth in consumption of meat increased from 7.9% to 12.7% in the post-1973 era, and that of animal feed rose from 4.9% to 9.4%. In contrast, directly consumed staple food grains increased from 4.8% to only 5.1% in the same period. 8 2.2.3. Urbanization Urbanization is the third critical factor shaping food demand. Favoured are commoditihs which lend themselves to storage, transport and processing. Expanding urbanization is one of the main reasons for the substantial growth in the demand, for example, of wheat and rice in developing countries. In 1980, 30% of the population of developing countries lived in urban areas (Annex Table 2). FAO's projection that by 2025 the percentage of urban dwellers, will rise to 60% indicates the magnitude of the potential impact that ucbanization could have on changing food demand. i 2.2.4. Implications research of changes in food demand for agricultural The effects on the agricultural sector of increases in food demand and changes in its composition, must be taken into consideration when establishing priorities for agricultural research in the future. Food demand influences commodity markets and prices, national food and agricultural policies, food trade and, consequently, the profitability and incentives for farmers to increase production through the adoption of improved technologies. Past trends in world food demand can be useful indicators of future needs and gaps, but direct extrapolation has to be treated with Changes in food,demand can vary significantly through some caution. time and across regions since demand responds not only to economic and demographic factors but also to policy, cultural and technological factors, which shape the attractiveness or availability of commodities. While, ideally, demand projections should be made on a countrycertain trend projections seem quite reliable on an by-country basis, Rice and wheat are likely to aggregate level (Annex Tables 3 and 4). remain the world's two most important staple foods for a long time, with the rate oE increase in demand keeping approximately even with populatheir relative importance in diets will decline tion growth. However, The pro,jected rate of,increase in the demand for the as incomes rise. coarse grains - maize, barley, sorghum and millet - which serve as both food and feed, is among the highest of all food commodities because their importance as feed crops for livestock increases substantially with income growth. The demand for roots, tubers and starchy foods is expected to (An exception is the grow at about the rate of population growth. potato.) Their share of aggregate global consumption will probably unless post-harvest technologies are developed which remain moderate, and processing or conversion of these prodrender storage, transport, Livestock products are expected to experience a ucts more feasible. substantial increase in demand because of both income and population The long-term growth in demand for food as are vegetables. growth, increasing at a rate well above legumes and pulses also appears strong, the global trends in Finally, the projected rate of population growth. the long-term demand for vegetable oils are clearly upward. 9 Globally, emerging gaps between demand and production constitute one indicator of priority for agricultural research and development. However, on the national level when food self-sufficiency is a national goal, the isslle is more complex. Such imbalances challenge national agricultural and policy research to minimize the gap: yet, in many situations, the evolving pattern .of demand is not compatible with regional production potentials. The most obvious example is that of wheat, for which there is a high demand in tropical regions and virtually no production potential under current technologies. One approach to the situation is to try to increase production through research aimed at adapting crops of high demand to those regions where they currently do not have a comparative advantage (such as attempting to grow wheat i.n wet, hot, lowland conditions). A second approach is to endeavour to adjust demand to conform more closely to local production possibilities by increasing the attractiveness to consumers of those commodities which do have a comparative advantage in the region. This can be done, for example, through food and agricultural pricing policies, or by developing technologies which reduce their costs relative to imported foods or which facilitate processing and preparation. It should be remembered, however, that food self-sufficiency on a national level is not always possible, nor the most desirable policy option. Cooperation among nations to attain self-sufficiency at a regional or subregional level is often more feasible and permits a more efficient use of resources. Furthermore, world trade can and does play a ma.ior role in distributing food commodities to meet 'regional demand. Today, for example, approximately 25% of the world wheat crop and 14% of the world maize croo is traded on the international market. It must also be noted that Eood self-sufficiency.does not imply freedom from hunger. If a significant proportion of the population earn income below the poverty line, production may meet aggregate demand at the national level and still fail to fulfill minimum food requireThe country India is a case in point. ments for disadvantaged groups. in spite of the fact that many has become a net exporter of cereals, millions of people are severely undernourished, -because they lack Improving the sufficient income to meet their food requirements. nutritional level and the general,economic well-being of low-income people in developing countries implies that food requirements which are not represented by effective demand must also be taken into account. the projections for growth in food On an international level, needs and demand, and for changes in consumption patterns clearly pose significant challenges for international agricultural research to policies and institutions required to meet develop the technologies, future needs. These three principal areas of endeavour are reviewed in detail below. 2.3. The Technology Technological Challenge: DeveloDment The Growing . for Complexity of complex To meet the rising demand and diversified agricultural food production, technologies will increasingly be required. 10 The potential to expand cultivation into frontier areas is limited: consequently increased production wilL have to come mainl.y from intensification of land already in use in both irrigated and rainfed areas through technological development. At the same time, environmental degradation must he controlled, efficiency of resource utilization increased, and genetic diversity conserved and fully exploited. It will also be vital, to ensure maximum utilization of agricultural prodlrcts through technologi.es which minimize post-harvest losses, utilize agricultural by-products, and efffciently convert commodities into forms appropriate for long-term storage and transport. 2.3.1. Population pressure on natural resources With the projected high rates of population growth discussed above, pressure on land and other resources will. increase on an unprecedented scale. The effects of populatton growth on the long-term stability and quality of the environment will vary widely, however, depending on the distribution of population in relation to the carrying capacity of the natural resources of di.stinct regions. Imbalances occur at al.1 levels - regional., subregional and national - with critical impl.i.cations for food availability, the kl.nds of technology needed to increase productivity, and the long-term sustainability of agricultural production. For example, FAO projects that by the end of the century, 40% of the developing-country land area ~I.11 be carrying 60% of the total population. This represents a serious future threat to the environment and consequently to human welfare. Perhaps even more alarming is the projection that no less than 64 developing countries - 29 of which are in Africa - will not be able to feed their Suture populations from their own land resources, given existing farming methods. Within the context of steadily increasing population pressure on resources, the primary challenge to agricultural research in the will be to generate technologies which raise productivity without environmental degradation. natural future causing 2.3.2. Intensifying agricultural production There is li.mi.ted Land resources will be crItica in the future. potential to meet growing food needs through the expansion of land under especially if adequate attention is given to the preservacultivation, tion of forests and the prevention of land degradation. Land reserves suitable for highly productive agriculture are The bulk scarce and unevenly distributed among regions and countries. of the land reserves regarded as having potentially high productivity These have not, however, yet proven suitable lie in the humid tropics. for long-term sustainable intensive exploitation. The extensive land reserves In other zones of Latin America and Afri.ca have severe consuch as aluminum toxicity or the straints to agricultural production, Considerable investment in long-term presence of endemic diseases. research will be required for the development of technologies which can improve productivity without degrading the resource base of these fragile and poorly understood ecologies. 11 The problem of limited land reserves has been made more acute by losses to expanding urban areas and roads, and to degradation. Consequently, the future trend will he towards increasing intensificatton of agriculture, which will place a greater pressure not only on land resources, but also on water-and energy resources. Their efficient use and protection will be crucial to the future of agricultural productivity. IntensiEication of land use will involve irrigation, whenever feasible, 'as well as improvement of rainfed agriculture. In both circumstances, intensification represents a major challenge to agricultural research. Increased yields per unit of land are achieved through three primary mechanisms: technological packages centered on highyielding varieties, production inputs, and improved practices: cropping intensity; and lahour or energy inputs. All generally require more intense levels of management. Different agroecological and socioeconomic envfronments will call for different mechanisms, or combinations of mechanisms, for intensi.fication. These will have distinct technological requirements and will. create a large demand for a broad range of technologies approprfate for diverse envfronmental condttions. The potential for irrigation is very unevenly distributed among By 2000, FAO projects that the area equipped for irrigation is regions. expected to constitute 34% of the total arable area in the Far East and 27% in the Near East, but only 7% in Latin America and 2% in Africa. In an intensification of rainfed agriculture many countries, therefore, will have to produce the bulk of foodstuffs required to meet increased demand.' Many of the technologies needed for intensification of agriculture in the less-favoured environments are not currently available. Past research has concentrated on areas of potentially high impact and such as irrigated areas and favourable rainfed zones. short-term payoff, while highly successful in the area of development, These technologies, are rarely transferable to the more difficult environments. The growing reliance on rainfed areas for increased crop proboth through intensification and expansion of agriculture into duction, will require more locationmore difficult and marginal environments, specific technologies appropriate for complex cropping systems and Stabilizing high yields when control over diverse fragile ecologies. water is lacking, presents a major challenge to agricultural research. Increasing attentfon will have to be given in technology development to especially to the enhancement of moisture land and water conservation, efficient utiliretention by increasing organic matter in the soil; to and to genotype/environment zation of scarce resources and inputs: interaction to mobilize the full yield potential of new technologies. Breeding of plant varfeties,more closely adapted to the seasonal expectation of rainfall is a second, complementary, approach. Finally, intensification of land use in the future will often be achieved by increased cropping intensity through intercropping, mixed multiple cropping, alley cropping, or multirelay cropping, crowing, Integrated crop/livestock systems will also be imporstory cropping. 12 Although considerable progress has been made, our knowledge base tant. for generating technologies for these complex pr,oduction systems is much less developed than that for mono-cropping. Substantial efforts in both strategic and applied research I/ will be necessary to develop effective improved technologies for such systems. 2.3.3. Ensuring long-term sustainable production Future world food supplies are dependent on the conservation and careful management of the existing natural-resource base. Yet with the ever intensifying pressure of population on resources, the environment is put increasingly at risk. The threat of environmental degradation is present now and will only increase in the future unless adequate efforts are devoted to abating the accelerating trend towards degradation. The challenge, then, for technology development for the future is twoEold: to increase agricultural productivity while simultaneously conserving enhanci.ng the productive capacity of the naturaland, if possible, resource base. Land degradation, in particular, reduces the resource base for food production for future generations. UNDP has estimated that 2,000 mil.lion ha of land have been lost through land degradation in historical To comprehend fully the enormity of the problem, this should be times. compared to the area of land currently under cultivation - 1,500 million ha. -l/ This paper uses the definitions Second Review -- of the CGIAR, of 1981, types of as follows: research listed in the * (i> (e.g. height (ii) designed to basic research - that how the partitioning of assimilates >; strategic problems - that research (e .g .- technique generate new understanding is influenced by plant research seedlings); designed for for detecting the solution dwarfing of specific genes in wheat -(iii> breeding nitrogen applied research - that designed to new varieties of dwarf wheat that without lodging); create new technology can respond to high (e.g. levels +-* of designed to adjust adaptive research - that (iv) specific needs of a particular set of environmental incorporating dwarf wheats into farming systems of the Pampean Region of Argentina). technology conditions the rainfed to the (e.g. areas of These components are part of a continuum: in this paper the “upstream” is used to mean a movement towards basic research a movement in the reverse direction. “downstream”, term and 13 Unsound production practices, deforestation, and overgrazing cause erosion and soil degradation, and in the semi-arid regions can eventually lead to desertifCcati.on. Excessive cuLt.ivation of marginal areas, hillsides in particular, threatens fragile ecologies by exposing the soil to runoff and wind erosion. FAO estimates that without adequate conservation measures, the area of rainfed crop Land could be reduced over the long term by an area greater than the entire potential cropland of South-East Asia. Intensive agricuLturaL systems that are ill-conceived or poorly managed similarly undermine the resource base through soil erosion, loss of organic matter, increased salinity Erom irrigation, contamination of water resources from chemical inputs or other factors. Soil compaction caused by heavy machinery can also be a serious problem, especially in fragile environments like the humid tropics. Protecting water resources is also of vitaL importance to maintaining long-term growth in agricultural production. Large river basins vital to agricultural production - such as the Nile, Ganges and. Amazon will have to be carefully managed to ensure long-term sustainable production. Increased agricultural intensification corlld jeopardize water supplies . Poorly managed or designed irrigation systems can, for example, overexploit groundwater resources or cause soil salinization. Millions of hectares of productive lands have already been turned into saline deserts due to inadequate drainage. ChemicaL i.nputs can contaminate water sources for agriculture and human consumption. Prevention of deforestation will similarly be crucial to environmental stability and to the development of highly productive and sustainable agriculture. The threat to forests will increase with population growth and increased pressure on resources.. According to two FAO studies, there is a disturbing correspondence between areas at risk of desertification and defi.ciency in fuelwood, and areas whose land resources are - at low levels of technology and input use - inadequate to feed their populations. The potential for intensifying production in the:se areas through higher input use is questionable since extens.ive deforestation and the associated runoff can cause water tables to drop, ,thus lowering the potential for irrigation. The large-scale use of chemicals has resulted in both environmental pollution and the proliferation of new strains of insects and disease organisms with ever-increasing resistance to. those chemicals. To be successful in the future, pest management will have to rely .on and it will have to place more specifically targetted pesticides, increased emphasis on alternative control methods such as biological hreeding for increased resiscontrol using natural enemies to pests, Possibilities that tance, or cultivation practices such as rotation. may arise from genetic engineering - e.g. rapid identification of resistance genes or incorporation of new sources of resistance - must exploited to the fullest degree. i be A less obvious environmental threat from agricultural intensification is the loss of genetic diversity that occurs when traditional . cultivars or breeds are replaced by new varieties, and wild relatives of crop plants and domesticated animals are lost as their habitats are. These genetic resources prodestroyed by the expansion of agriculture. ,. \ ’ -, , 14 vide the building blocks for breeding on which the future productivity of agriculture in large part depends. The conservation of genetic resources is, therefore, of strategic importance and so must march hand in hand with the process of agricuLturaL intensification. The more immediate problem resulting from the widespread adoption of genetically similar varieties is that their vulnerability to pests and diseases is more uniform. This heightens the risk of extensive losses: The development of sustainable production systems which ensure the preservatfon of the resource base wfll be of paramount importance in the future. Environmentally sound technologfes that will enhance long-term productivity oE resources and ensure the stability of ecosystems are required. the Technology alone, however, should not be relied upon to ensure long-term sustainable food production; alleviating pressure on resources through a more balanced distribution of population and, more imporreducing population growth rates is the other key factor tantly , through in the equation. 2.3.4. Increasing the efficiency of resource use The problems resulting from the greater input use necessary for intensified agriculture are not solely environmental: they are also economic. In many developing countries, the availability of inputs is often beyond the reach of farmers whose limited and they are costly, resources aie poor. Hence, efficiency of input use will have to he increased through research. Breeding can This can be accomplished through several means. generate varieties which make more efficient use of inputs, such as or have enhanced tolerance and resistance so that dependence fertilizer, on chemical pesticides is reduced. Such varieties may, however, he which increases the complexity and scale of the location-specific, agronomic trials can he Secondly, breeding process on the global level. used to indicate more precisely the effective returns to various levels Pesticides and herbicides can of input use so that waste is minimized. programs of pest be more specifically targetted or, as in integrated methods can be devised to monitor pest populations so that management, chemical inputs can he Thirdly, pesticides are used only when required. complemented and partially replaced by biological processes which are less harmful to the environment and often less costly. For example, methods of biological fixation of nitrogen, organic recycling, and more tightly integrated crop/livestock systems can he used to reduce the need for chemical fertilizers. Technologies will also have to be developed that utilize water Current inefficiency of water management in resources more efficiently. many irrigation systems is a matter of serious concern, and intensification of agricultural production in the future will require better and more efficient management methods to ensure that availahlity of water is With the increased emphasis on rainfed agricultimely and sufficient. ture, water and moisture conservation and efficient utilization will he Attention Will have to be given to enhancing the extremely important. and to means of stor.ing runoff capacity of the soil to retain moisture, for subsequent use in periods of drought. 15 The infusions ultural production creased efficiency able energy sources energy that will be needed for increased agricWill have to he met, at least partially, through inin energy use and through the exploitation of renewsuch as wind, sun, water and plant by-products. also contribute and animal into agriculture of - Integrated crop/livestock management.systems will to increasing on-farm energy resources. Crop by-products manure can,serve as energy sources or as organic inputs to help maintain soil quality.and produce.higher yields. Increasing the use of fast-growing multipurpose trees within farming systems is another important means of increasing on-farm energy production and minimizing.environmentaL degradation. Trees make other vital contributions to agriculture: they are a source of wood for farm buildings, tool handles, farm equipment and fencing; they perform an important role in mineral recycling, water infiltration, and soil protection: and they provide shelter, forage and hrowse for livestock. 2.3.5. Improving post-harvest technologies and practices Both the reduction in post-harvest losses and the fuller utilization of by-products would increase the efficiency of resource use in agriculture, contribute to sustainability, and expand the portion of total agricultural output directed towards human welfare. Better protection against post-harvest losses has a significant impact on increasing the amount of food available for consumption. FAO has estimated that the quantity of food constituting a 10% global post-harvest loss is equivalent to approximately one kg of cereal per day for 100 million people. Improving post-harvest technology potentially high impact. By minimizing of increasing food availability without natural-resource base. and practices is an area of waste, this is a primary means intensifying pressure on the 2.3.6. Stimulating the production of small farms Much of the increase in production required to meet rising food needs in developing countries in the short to medium term will depend on generating surplus production from the small, and often resource-poor The farms which predominate in rainfed and marginal agricultural areas. immediate challenge for agricultural research is to design technologies which are appropriate for the management conditions of these units and which will-enhance their capacity to produce commerci-ally. Management practices are determined not only by the farms' resource base, but also by the goals and socioeconomic conditions of the farming households. Small farms typically operate complex, tightly which are finely tuned to integrated, diversified production systems, They are designed to utilize the environments in which they operate. available resources and factors of production to meet the multiple goals These of the household - the basic unit of production and consumption. - which include.security of food supply and adequate diversity of goals staples -.can be just as important determinants of management as the more commonly assumed commercial goals,of maximizing yield or profit. 16 Socioeconomic conditions oE farming households are clearly location-specific. Common features, however, are heavy reliance on family labour, cash scarcity, and the importance of kin or community institutions in, addition 'to the marke't or public-sector institutioas, for determining household access to resources. Developing appropriate technologies for these farming, systems requires understanding the specific socioeconomic conditions which influence the management practices and production goals, and incorporating these considerations and farmers' priorities into the design of technologies Ear the farming system. While designing appropriate technologies for these farming systems is a challenge, it does not by any means .imply that these farms innately represent an impediment to increasing agricultural productivity. Quite to the contrary, numerous examples from all three Africa and Latin America - demonstrate that small continents - Asia, farmers respond to commercial opportunities and rapidly adopt technologies when they are suitable Ear their management circumstances and enable them to meet their goals more readily - whether the goals be improved subsistence or increased cash income. The issue is to design technologies appropriate for the users' needs and, of course, to provide adequate incentives for the production of a marketable surplus. Development of technologies suitable resources not'only catalyzes production to also generates a dynamic rural sector with families and expanded employment opportunities associated industries and services. for small farms with limited meet regional food needs, but improved welfare for Farm in agriculture and p 2.3.7. The jection of It indicates - Projected scenario trends that: of for trends in technology development above shapes the pro-' technology development. world agriculture outlined agricultural research and the demand production for technology will process expands; grow as its role in the - the complexity of technologies will increase with the intenthe shift in emphasis to more sification of agriculture, and the need for high and stable yields difficult environments, with resource conservation: the range of greater need agroecological the demand 'expand with technologies will broaden in response to the for location-specific technologies for diverse zones and regional socioeconomic conditions; and processing income growth. technologies - and - for post-harvest urbanization will and 2.4. The Policy Challenge which while maximize ensuring the productivity their preservation and efflis only cient Developing technologies use of natural resources 17 part of the solution for meeting future food needs. Improved technology alone can ensure neither increased food production nor adequate nourishment for all sectors of a society. The political, social and economic environments of the agricultural sector also shape food production and distribution. These factors must be taken into account when examining the scenario of world agriculture and future demands on the global agrfcultural research system. Policy plays a critical role in shaping the structure tion in agriculture, the efficient use of natural'resources, context for technological development. Policy di.sincentives major obstacles to agricultural development as, for, example, current agricultural crisis in Africa. of and can in producthe be the national, issues which incorporate international, Food and agricultural polici.es, and sectorial levels of analysis, should address such complex as: - the relative agri.culture development; - the balance sufficiency emphasis as areas to be placed of investment on industry to stimulate and economic nations strike between the goal and reliance on Eood imports to of food selfmeet demand; - the determination of national priorities among export and food crops within’the context of a country's comparative advantage, the dynamics of the international markets, and need for foreign exchange: 7 the reconciliation of the need consumers with that to provide farmers to expand production: - the degree to which pricing used to stimulate production technologies; to keep sufficient food prices incentives low for to policies and the or subsidies adoption of should improved be - the impact of differential wages and employment in the rural and urban sectors on the viability agricultural sector; and opportunities of the - the equitable distribution of benefits of agricultural research and increased food productivity among various sectors and interest groups in the society. How these policy viability of the and quantity of issues are addressed will have a strong impact agricultural sector, in particular, on the food produced and its distribution among social on the quality groups. With the challenges for food production that lie ahead, rational policies, developed to meet the spectfic needs of individual countries, will be needed to create the necessary conditions for technological progress. Given the complexity of the issues, a strong foundation of policy research will be required for sound constraint analysis and policy formulation in the future. 18 2.5. The Institutional Challenge 2.5.1. Agricultural development Technological development leading to a sustainable increase in agricultural productivity requires viable supporting facilities such as national research institutions, credit and extension services, input/ output markets, and transportation systems. Improved technologies can increase food production only when farmers are aware of the technologies and know how to use them; when the required inputs (seeds, fertilizer, herbicides, etc.) are available at reasonable prices: when markets are accessible ; and when there are remunerative prices for farmers’ products. All these elements are prerequisites for robust agricultural development and represent important challenges for the future. They are relevant to the CGIAR in terms of defining the context into which *improved technologies are to be introduced and, thus, their realistic potentials. They are not treated in depth in this analysis, however, since, with the exception of national research systems, they are largely beyond the domain of CGIAR efforts. They lie more appropriately within the realm of, responsibilities of the international and national development agencies. 2.5.2. Developing national research capacities The development of national research capacities will be essential to meeting the technology and policy challenges confronting developingcountry agriculture. For research to be successful in contributing to sustainable growth in agricultural production in the future, national research systems will have to be the leaders in the process of technoNational systems are in the best position to define logy development. their needs and priorities for agrtcultural research and to develop and evaluate technologies under the specific conditions in which they are to be used. * To assume this leadership role in the process of technology development and to collaborate productively with other participants in , the research process, national research systems have to be strong and strengthened efforts will To attain this goal, effective institutions. be required not only in the training of scientific manpower and the but also in the developconstruction of adequate research faci,lities, The latter is essential if national ment of management capacities. research systems are to clearly define their needs and priorities, organize and plan research eEfectively, and allocate resources appropriately. The institutional challenge for strengthening national research is heightened by the variability in the capacities of developing-country In some develresearch systems among regions, countries and programs. the,process of institutional development of national oping countries, research systems is well under way and their productivity has demonstrated the potentially high returns to investment in agricultural substantial development on all three fronts of research. In others, 19 scientific necessary if training, they are infrastructure, to design and management and execute effective capacity is research programs. Moreover, the institutional strength of national research systems or of specific research programs can vary over time. Linear progress in the development .of research capacities cannot be assumed. The dynamics of national food and agricultural policies and economic conditions, as well as the vagaries in the internal and international markets for specific commodities, all have a strong impact on the vigour and stability of research systems or programs. The challenge of attaining balanced institutional development of research systems is obviously substantial and will require a based and integrated effort involving all actors in the interagriculture research process. national broadly national 2.6. International Agricultural Future Challenges Research: Global Efforts to Meet To date, international agricultural research has made a tremendous contribution to developing countries' efforts to alleviate hunger and feed their growing populations. It is clear that investment in research has yielded significant returns. Research and technology development have been key factors leading to the steady increase in global food production, and to the decline in the real price of food on the global level in the post-World War II era. For example, IRRI has calculated that the expanded availability of rice, resulting largely from increased productivity due to improved varieties and technologies, contributed to an 11% decrease in the average real world price of rice between the 1960s and the 1970s. Furthermore, since the introduction of improved varieties in the 1960s in Asia, per-capita food production has increased 20% and the area has become a net exporter of rice. Lower food costs directly benefit rural and urban consumers in Since these households allocate the poorest sectors of the population. the largest share of their budgets to purchasing food, their real income increases when food prices decline, and their nutritional intake Generally, producers are improves with the greater purchasing power. compensated for lower food prices by the higher productivity achieved resulting in lower costs per with improved varieties and technologies, unit of production. As indicated in the previous discussion, however, the challenge of feeding the growing podulation of developing countries in the future research needs will be more At the same time, will become more acute. demanding because the relevant knowledge base to meet them is more The .success of high-yielding varieties of limited than in the past. wheat and rice grew out of a solid foundation of basic and strategic the research was focussed Furthermore, research in developed countries. on favourably endowed regions which had a potential for high impact. In are contrast, commodities many of the for which priority there crops limited targetted prior for research research on which today is 20 to build. Additionally, research on increased productivity in rainfed agriculture and the more difficult environments is more demanding. Growing conditions are highly variable, ecologies fragile, and the socioeconomic organization of the farms and rural sectors not well The problem is further compounded by the diverse needs for understood. agricultural technologies among developing-country regions resulting from differences in agroecological conditions, as well as socioeconomic and political circumstances. These factors make the task of creating viable agricultural technologies for the future significantly more complex. The payoffs to research will probably be slower and the results less dramatic than those of the Green Revolution. In most cases, increased productivity will be achieved through progressive incremental change generated by location-specific technologies. The broad and rapid diffusion of technologies of wide applicability will be less common than in the past. Yet, the need will be no less urgent. There has been a trend in recent years towards closer integration and harmony of effort among the various partners in the emerging global agricrlltural research system. To reach the common goal of increased agricultural production in developing countries, cooperation will need to be intensified and functions shared in generating new technologies. The principal participants would include specialized research institutions, international research centers, regional and national research systems, bilateral and multilateral development agencies, and research interests in the private sector. such as universities and research Specialized institutions, facilities in both developed and developing countries, have the unique The knowledge generated by basic capacity to conduct basic research. research forms the foundation for the strategic and applied research on which technology development is based. International agricultural research centers have the capacity to information and technology components (such as germplasm) move people, internationally. They are staffed with scientists actively involved with research who are familiar with tropical environments and who can work with scientists from developing countries on a peer basis. They also have the capacity to conduct strategic and applied research that solves problems and generates new techologies. The national agricultural research systems of developing countries are in the best position to determine research needs and They also have the capacity to develop, evaluate and adapt priorities. production technologies to specific ecologies and farming conditions because they can locate experiments in those environments. Bilateral and multilateral development research, assist in institutional development among research capacities in donor countries, and research efforts in developing countries, research centers . The private sector has been and technology development institutions supporting and facilitate linkages research efforts in international agricultural research playing a. larger role in in developing countries agricultural in recent 21 years and ~111 undoubtedly continue been concentrated largely on adaptive industries - but the trend is clearly strategic and basic research. to do so. research towards So far, activities - for example in greater involvement .have seed in For future gains in sustainable agrCcultura1 productivity, strong linkages will have to be formed among these various research levels and actors i.n the process of generating technology. Enhanced basic and strategic research on the commodities with less research history will be necessary. Work on factor constraints, characteristic of the more difftcult agroecological zones, will have to be complemented by the expanded applied and adaptive research needed to develop more locationspeci.fi.c technologies which optimize genotype/environment interaction. At the same time, maintenance research will have to grow in order to defend current yield levels and sustain the essential mechanisms of resistance and tolerance. The increasing capacity of, developing countries to conduct applied and adaptive research will be crucial to meeting future needs. As the national systems assume increased responsibility for research in these areas, the international centers will concentrate more on strategic research-. They will be supported in basic research by the specialized institutions in both the public and the private sectors. The CGIAR is only one actor in the complex process of technology generation. To make the fullest and most efficient use of its resources and capacities, it must coordinate its research efforts with those of the other actors. CG Centers work in close collaboration with the research systems of developing countries and assume responsibility for research and technology generation which the national systems need but do not have the capaci.ty and/or resources to undertake. At the same time, in order to remain at the forefront of science and draw on the knowledge of basic research, the Centers need to maintain active linkages with the specialized institutions involved in basic research in the public and private sectors. While it is widely recognized that the Centers have had a significant impact on increasing food production in developing countries, it is important to understand the position of the CGTAR within the global system and its relative size and scale of effort when reviewing tts In terms of global public-sector research approach and priorities. the share received by the CGIAR is a modest spending in agrsculture, 1.6%; in relation to developing countries’ efforts, its share is in the The small size of the CGIAR requires vicinity of 5% (1980 figures). its that it be highly selective in the types of research it pursues; It must, efforts must be suificiently focussed to make an impact. therefore, have a clearly defined goal, a long-range operational strategy, and carefully considered shortand long-term research for strategic priorities. Towards this end, TAC’s re commendations planning and future priorities in the CGIAR are developed in the following chapters. 22 CHAPTER 3. THE CGIAR: STRATEGIES TO MEET FUTURE CHALLENGES The discussion in Chapter 2 has shown that the world is moving rapidly towards agricultural systems based increasingly on scientific knowledge and improved technologies. International agricultural research that is clearly focussed and of high quality will he required. to meet the needs of the future. The future challenges for research and technology generation have important irnplicatlons for the CGIAR and its role wlthin the global research system. The contri.hutions.that the CG System has made to date to improving agriculture in developing countries have been widely acknowledged. Significant progress has been made in generating technologies for improved commodityproduction systems; in conserving resources for sustainable agric~~ltut-e (particularly genetic resources); in strengthening national research capacltics through training and institution building; in identifying non-technological constraints to productivity increases through research on poli.cy and socioeconomic factors: and in promoting linkages among all partners in the global research system. to ensure relevance and impact, the CG System must periodically Yet, evaluate its goals and operational strategy in the light of changes in both the needs of national systems and the circumstances of its partners in the global system. In long-term institutCona1 contFnued horizon). this chapter, TAC examines the key elements of the CG System's strategy with the aim of developing broad recommendations for and operational approaches that ensure the System's strength and vitality in the future (25-year planning 3.1. Evolution of the CG System: Past to Present The Fqrd and Rockefeller Foundations created the first four international centers during the 1960s and, thereby, laid the base for The philosophy of the founding the establishment of the CGIAR in 1971. was based on the concept of fathers in creating the inittal centers, gap-filling. It was understood that these centers would fill, on a those gaps in research and technology generation that temporary hasls, could not be filled by the research systems of developing countries. This concept assigned to the centers a specific role and Implied close It was equally assumed collaboration with national research systems. arising essentially from developed that the results of basic research, countri.es, would be available to the centers and could be effectively utilized in the development of technology applicable to developing the work of the centers was countries. Thus ) from the beginning, designed to complement that of other components of the global research effort. The first two international founded in the 1960s to carry out of the commodities most likely to Attention wheat and maize. rice, centers, research have the was then IRRI and CIMMYT, were to improve the productfvity greatest impact on hunger: turned to the large areas of 23 uncultivated or sparsely populated lands in Latin America and Africa with high potential for food production.. This led to the creation of CIAT -and IITA, each with a broader mandate'than those of the two original international centers (Table I). The CGIAR, founded to ensure the continuation and expansion of the agricultiral research initiatives of the Ford and Rockefeller soon created or incorporated new centers into the System as Foundations, additional problems were identified: CIP (potato), ICARDA (dry areas), ICRISAT (semi-arid tropics), ILCA (livestock in Africa), ILRAD (animal diseases) and WARDA (rice in West Africa). To complement the work of those Centers which were dedicated primarily to technology development, the CGIAR decided to fund IFPRI to understand more fully the issues that arise when governments and international agencies intervene in global food problems. It also created two service organizations: IRPGR, to promote international cooperation on plant genetic resources; and ISNAR, to assist developing countries to strengthen their research systems. The CG System has evolved in terms of objectives, and program structure orientation, operational approaches, to the changing needs in -developing-country agriculture. had reached its present size, with a breadth of commodity mandates covering a large share of the critical problems international agricultural research (Table I). conceptual in response By 1980, it and regional for 1 A full account of the evolution of the CGIAR from a loose federa-, tion of four international centers to a System of 13 Centers with Only is given in the Second Review of the CGIAR. integrated objectives, the salient points necessary for the discussion of strategies are mentioned here. The Centers were created in response to identified needs, not The subsequent search for from a coherent plan of global action. coherence arose from the desire to harmonize objectives and integrate however.loosely bound, the interrelated activities through a "system", of a set of institutions which take pride in their independence and are largely autonomous. The System's past successes tively to present and future needs characterisitics: - its international character, political boundaries; - its scientific scientists, technicians: and its potential are based on the to respond effecfollowing salient which allows it to transcend strengths, comprising supported by other highly some 750 Ph.D.-level trained scientists and - its institutional flexible and well - its network systems; of and organizational managed Centers: linkages with capacities - 13 dynamic, effective national research 24 Table I. Formal and Operational Mandates of Centers CENTERS ___------_. (year Location established) CIAT Cali, Colombia (1968) ___--------Commodity/Activity Formal Mandates __-_____-_RegionlAgroecologicaI Zone _____--_____ Commodity/Activity Operational Mandates _---------RegionlAgroecological ZO”e Food crops, animal Tropical emphasis America lowlands in Latin with Phaseolus Rice Tropical bean, cassava World Latin America America/lowland. Droducts pastures Latin tropics CIMMYT lexico City, (19661 Mexico Wheat, Sorghum, food Potato, maize rice, other World Undefined Wheat, Barley maize, triticale World Latin America crops other root crop! World potato World CIP Lima, Peru (1971) IBPGR Rome, Italy (1974) Promote activities to World Same as formal mandate World further collection, conservation, evolution and utilization of germplasm ICARDA Aleppo, Syria (1976) Farming systems subtropical Dry, temperate climates, primarily North Africa/Near Mediterranean East or Farming Barley, systems lentil, faba North World Africa/Near East and bean Wheat, chickpea North Africa/Near on agriculture) East non- Barley, bean, Wheat, ICRISAT Hyderabad, (1972) Sorghum, pigeonpea, groundnut IFPRI Jashington (1975) D.C., USA Identify national strategies for Farming India lentil, other chickpea systems crops faba World (concentration irrigated Africa/Near unirrigate dry and semi East Farming systems Semi-arid (Asia, North Low-rainfall seasonally arid tropics tropics Africa) millet,' chickpea, World Sorghum, pigeonpea, groundnut millet, chickpea, World & analyze 8 internationa .5 policies hunger and reducing World, emphasis countries with on primary Lou-income 8 groups Same as formal mandate World malnutrition IITA Ibadan, Nigeria (1967) Rice, cocoyam, Sweet ILCA Addis Ababa, (1974) Ethiopi Livestock systems production Africa Livestock systems maize, cassava, Tropical food crops World Farming systems Humid tropics Africa & sub-humid (Africa) soybean potato,yam,cowpez production World Africa ILRAD Nairobi, (1973) IRRI DS Bafios, !1960) Kenya lrypanosomiasis, theileriosis, diseases Rice World other Trypanosomiasis, theileriosis Africa Philippines World, on Asia with emphasis Rice, cropping rice-based systems World, on Asia with emphasis The ISNAR Hague, Netherlanc (1980) Strengthen agricultural systems Rice national research Uorld Same as formal mandate World UARDA Monrovia, (1971) West Africa Rice West Africa Liberia 25 - its capacity science ; - its base of to link with specialized institutions of basic germplasm facilities and knowledge; at Centers’ headquarters and off- - Its research campus ; and - its integrated approach, built around complementary approaches, whi.ch contribute to a central goal. program The System has now evolved to the stage where it. maintaFns an active and complex set of relationships with ,a broad set of research institutions in both developed and developing countr-les. The Centers collaborate closely with each other and with the national programs they serve through various arrangements, which include regional networks and outposting of Center scientists. They draw on the results and expertise of advanced institutions throughout the world through collaborative or contractual arrangements. And, they cooperate with bilateral. and multilateral development insti.tuti.ons which support research. These rel.ationships are dynamic, reflecting the evolving capacities and needs of the participating institutions to which the System must remain alert. the CG System has the organizational flexiToday, bility to develop new activities, expand existing ones or shed old ones, without having to undertake major structural or institutional changes. For example, if the CGIAR identified research on soils and water for rainfed agriculture as a new area of high priority, the research could be effectively integrated into the existing organizational framework of the System without creating a new institute. It is this type of internal operational change or shift in emphasis that TAC proposes to review in this chapter. 3.2. The Goal and Program Strategy of the CGIAR The definition of the System’s long-term goal has evolved towards greater clarity and specificity with the consensus that has emerged in This consensus is recent years among originally diverse ideas. reflected by the goal statement developed by TAC: Throueh contribute countries well-being international agricultural research and related activities. to to increasing sustainable food production in developing in such a way that the nutritional level and general economic of low-income people are improved. The, above goal statement not speciffes and thereby focusses on: developing, research assistance international, food and developed countries: not development or technical- and related activities; not feed, not activities, - national industrial or regional commodities; research; 26 - technologies technologies short-term for long-term sustainable that sacrifice ecological gains in productivity; production., stability not for - improved nutrition and economic well-being of low-income people, not solely through increased food production, but through improved food quality, greater equity in distribution, more stable food supplies, and increased purchasing power. also The goal is complex and multifaceted. To be realized it requires a comprehensive program of heterogeneous, but interdependent, research and related activities. Conceptually, TAC considers that these activities can be systematically analyzed and compared using a framework of eight objectives, into which the activities fall. The ei.ght objectives, towards which the CG System works in collaboration with national agricultural research systems and other partners in the global system, are: 1. managing genetic 2. increasing view to improving livestock and conserving natural resources (eg. resources) Eor sustainab1.e agriculture; the productivity integrating them of into essential improved ecologicaL land, water and food crops with a production systems; stability of 3. the productivity and production systems; 4. achi.eving , through improvements the more complete utilization rural and urban areas: of in post-harvest agricultural technologies, products in both 5. promoting hetter human health and economic well-being through improved nutritional quality of foods, enhanced equity in expanded economic opportunities and better access to foods, management of overall family resources: 6. improving rational in food the policy environment to ensure the formulation of agricultural and food policies which favour increases production and commodity productivity; national agricultural research capacities in countries to accelerate the indigenous generation, and utilization of enhanced technologies; and 7, strengthening developing adaptation 8. integrating efforts both with!n and among Centers of the CG integrating the CG System’s System and, equally important, activities with those of its various partners in the global system. I illustrates graphically the objectives and the central Figure goal. 27 Figure I - The Goal and Obj'ectives -- of the CGIAR The level and nature of the System's involvement in each of these areas vary greatly, but they are all recognized as essential concerns. In some areas, such as crop and livestock productivity, the CG System is a major actor. In others, it operates primarily as a catalyst, stimulating and supporting research in other institutions; while in still other areas, such as that of commodity conversion and utilization, it draws on the work of institutions which have assumed leadership roles and integrates thefr results into its own programs. 3. i The System.'s the Future Operational Strategy: Continuity-and Changes for In the face of evolving technological changes and research needs, as one member of the global the operational strategy of the CG System, needs to be evaluated in terms of its continuing relevance for system, the future. The key elements of the operational strategy are: its organizational concept; its research approach; its mechanisms System; approach - the international-center - orientation - the multi-disciplinary commodity - for cooperation among Centers within the 28 - its its its linkages service long-term with function other to members national strategy. 0.f the research global system; and systems; research 3.3.1. Organizational app,roach:. The international-center concept Centers, existed fulfill When the founding fathers of the CGIAR established the first the InternationaL-center concept was new. Nothing like it in the past and nothing has yet emerged that might better the purpose for which the CGIAR exlsts. had Alternative organizational approaches for attaining the System’s objectives, in particular networking arrangements, have been considered and used during the System’s evolution. They have, however, served as complementary approaches and, rather than replacing or modifying the they have tended to reinforce it. internat.ional-center concept, In order to assess the continued validi.ty and the future relevance of the international-center model for the CG System in light of changing needs and in comparison with alternative organizational it is essential first to examine the underlying concepts and approaches, functional characteristics of this model. The key characteristics of the international-center concept are: - the global perspective tates a clear focus solution: of mandates and programs which facilion problems requiring.an international - the international status of Centers and their governance, staffing, program design and resource support, which protect their mandates and programs from political pressures and from purely national or regional influences; - the international knowledge ; and mobility of germplasm, Center staff and which ensures accessibility - the principle of universality, research results to all interested parties and openness Centers to all partners seeking collaboration. The operational approach of the CG Centers is characterized of of by: - the development,at the Centers of a strong research and technology generation, training, of linkages with collaborating institutions; - the clarity of solving highly technological, production; scientifLc’basis for and the promotion focus and the multidisciplinary approach to relevant and clearly defined problems in the institutional and policy areas relating to food . 29 - the continuity of effort and research and related activities: - the ability commitment adequacy of support in scientific to attract staff of to the System’s goal: high quality and strong - the institutional to evolving needs flexibility and and opportunfties responsiveness for research; of Centers and and - the balancebetween Center autonomy at the program level central oversight at the level of system-wide strategic planning and resource allocation. The specific roles and functions of Centers in the research process are shaped largely by the relatfve scales of effort of! their partners in the global research system, especially those of their primary clients - the nat-lonal research systems. The fact that each Center 1s only one of many actors participating in an integrated research process reinforces the need for clar-tty of focus in Centers’ programs. It also requires that Centers endeavour to complement the efforts of other members of the global system and collaborate effectively with them in order to achieve an efficient division of labour. As the System’s success stories have shown and numerous reviews and evaluations have confirmed, the Center concept has performed well in fulfilling the purpose for which it was created. It has also proven able to adapt to evolving functional requirements as the demands on the System have expanded and their nature changed. For example, 1t has facilitated the decentralization of research operations through networking arrangements involving the other components of the global system. It has also allowed the System to develop a catalytic role in mobilizing research by its partners in those areas targetted as high priority, but for which the CG System does not have a clear comparative advantage. TAC believes that the international-center concept will continue to be the most effective organizational approach for the CG System to meet the challenges Eating international agri.culturaL research in the future. The long-term trends in technology requirements reinforce the need for strong scientiEic units of high quality at the Centers. hlY strong multidisciplinary teams of highly qualified scientists, linked to institutions of basic science throughout the world, will be able to perform the increasingly complex functions of serving the needs of their These functions will continue clientele, the national research systems. to be centered on research and technology development, training and catalyzing and coordinating research on focussed institution building, and facilitating linkages among national topics or specific commodities, While Centers and their programs systems and advanced institutions. will continue to evolve in accordance with changing needs and the organizing principle will retain its validity. priorities, At the same time, TAC foresees that the present. decentralization of research programs will continue in - especially with perhaps, become even more pronounced of research efforts on rai.nfed agriculture and the more environments. trend towards the Centers and, the strengthening marginal 30 Decentralization, particularly in plant breeding, will permit Centers to respond to the more diverse needs of a broader range of environments. The breeding of widely adapted varieties ready for immediate release was a useful strategy for the early phase of the Green Revolution. The emphasis on a few favoured and more homogeneous environments and the initial lack of capability in the national research institutions, provided the justification for the large-scale centralized breeding programs. With the increasing sophistication of national research institutions and the increasing effort to develop varieties more closely adapted to a multttude of environments, it will no longer be necessary nor physically possible for the CG Centers to develop finished varieties. Moreover, although the inclusion of large numbers of objectives in breeding programs works up to a point, it eventually becomes cumbersome, making smaller programs more effective. Centralized programs should, therefore, concentrate on identifying new desirable parental lines and developing widely adapted base populations; while the development oE finished varieties should be undertaken at the national level. TAC believes that the outposting of Center staff to national or’ regional programs is likely to be the primary institutional mechanism for decentralizing research and breeding programs. Outposting not only serves research objectives, but also serves a second key objective of the CG System: the strengthening of the natCona1 research systems. In some cases, outposted Center staff have been primarily involved in adaptive research and, to some extent, are substituting for weak national capacities. Their role in this capacity should, however, be conceived as short-term and their efforts should be consistently directed towards developing national capacities and moving back into applied research. In the long term, outposting should be used primarily as a mechanism to more fully implement Centers’ mandates and to achieve especially for heterogenous a greater breadth in research coverage, environments. Outposting and the trend towards decentralized research programs Decentralized do not dilute the Center concept, but reinforce it. research has to be supported. at all times by the continuing presence of These ensure strong research nuclei at Centers’ headquarters. scientific rigour in Centers’ research programs by providing effective and by maintaining close contact program coordination and direction, Strong units at headquarters are with institutions of basic research. expanding service functions to also needed to support the Centers’ These functions national systems of evolving and diverse capacities. include : maintaining germplasm collections, enhancing germplasm and developing research methodologies and developing new parental lines, offering appropriate scientific training programs; techniques, and strengthening linkages coordinating greater flows of information, with specialized institutions working at the cutting edge of science. TAC, therefore, foresees that the diverse and complex demands that confront the CG System in the future will reaffirm the international-center concept as the primary operational approach within the such as networking arrangements, System. Other operational approaches, will undoubtedly serve as important complements to the internationalcenter approach, but TAC considers that they are not viable alternatives to it. CG \ 31 3.3.2. Research approach orientation: The multidisciDlinarv commoditv Multidisciplinary research centered on specific commodities, but aimed at improving whole production systems, has been the central research thrust of the CGIAR from the beginning. The commodity approach to agricultural research has been described in many ways. In this the term "commodity" is used to embrace all the products that the paper, CC System seeks to improve, including livestock and pastures. The term "commodity research" is used to refer to the multidisciplinary research on crop/livestock productivity carried out by the CG System with the objective of, improving sustainable production systems while giving due consideration to the collateral concerns and oh.jectives that are relevant in terms of the System's central goal (e.g. improved nutrition, employment and income generation, or resource conservation). With respect to commodity research, the multidisciplinary approach is rooted in the basic idea that sustainable productivity in agriculture is determined hy the interaction of many elements in the physical, biological and socioeconomic environments. The clear implication is, therefore, that the results of research can be effectively applied only Cf they are derived from a methodology that takes into account all of the relevant elements and their interactions. The key Eeature of this approach is that the commodity serves as the focus for research, integrating numerous disciplines into a coherent effort to alleviate constraints to the production, distribution, and utilization of the commodity. In the context of the CG System, which concentrates on applied and strategic research for the generation of improved technologies, the commodity approach has demonstrated a number of important advantages. It focusses directly on the central issue: technology generation for It addresses the full breadth of the enhanced food production systems. It uses a problem by integrating all of the relevant disciplines. holistic perspective necessary for understanding technnology development And, it either within the context of complex farming systems. integrates advanced scientific knowledge from specialized instititutions and universities into the development of new technologies; or, when the required knowledge is not available, catalyzes its generation. Commodity research has also proven to be a strong motivator who become enthusiasts for their particular research scientists, commodity, and of government policy makers, who become committed creasing the production of basic food crops. of to in- . Alternative research approaches organized around disciplines (pathology, entomology, soil science, etc.), common factors of production (fertilizer, water management, etc.), farming systems, or the are widely followed elsewhere. The problems of agroecological regions, discipline and factor approaches have not been adopted as main thrusts they are most relevant to basic research where the within the CG System; primary objective is the generation of new knowledge, rather than the L solution of specific production problems. The agroecological and important for complementing the farming systems approaches are, however, research programs of some of the Centers. 32 The agroecological approach is highly relevant to research aimed at increa,sing the productivity of rainfed agriculture in the tropics. Centers working on these problems have to build up an adequate knowledge base and in-house capacity to deal with them either directly, or in collaboration with specialized institutions. The agroecological focus provides a basic understanding of the environmental parameters determining the potential levels of sustainable productivity in these zones. Various types of research on farming systems have also proved to be valuable as complementary approaches to commodity research. Such research is closely related to multidisciplinary commodity research, but is broader in perspective. It aims at increasing the sustainable productivity of whole-farm systems, rather than that of a commodity as a specific element within a production system. In the CG System, research on farming systems has incorporated and quite distinct activities: three basic, base-line data analysis for characterizing major types of farming systems within agroecological research station activities directed towards the development of zones; new farming systems; and farming systems adaptive research which incorporates on-farm research and the testing and fine-tuning of technologies to specific environ.mental and Earm-management conditions. In looking at the challenges that will confront international agricultural research in the future, TAC has concluded that the multidisciplinary commodity approach should continue to be the central research thrust within the CG System and, indeed, should be strengthened Commodity programs in the System have been the most successful further. This is not only a function of age and research history but to date. also of a clear research focus. Furthermore, the multidisciplinary commodity approach has the inherent flexibility to respond effectively to new challenges and problems. It must be remembered, however, that the System's successes with commodities derive largely from research in the more favourably endowed where production conditions are more stable and are better environments, understood. With the proposed move to more difEicult environments, the relevance oE the multidisciplinary commodity approach to specific agroecological zones will be ensured by two developments which are expected First, to obtain increases in to occur gradually but simultaneously. productivity and improvements in the stability of yields, Centers will have to concentrate increasingly on germplasm enhancement .for s'pecific In view of their complexity, such breeding agroecological environments. programs should be conducted in a highly decentralized manner, in close Second, national collaboration'with groups of national systems. which currently collaborate with the Centers, should research systems, increasingly assume responsibility for location-specific research. TAC considers that research with a farming systems perspective will continue to be useful and relevant to the Centers' work over the Centers are encouraged to maintain an active short to medium term. improving and harmoniztng their respective dialogue aimed at evaluating, In the long term (25 years), approaches to farming systems research. however, TAC considers that the respective roles of the three primary aspects of research on farming systems will vary in the System. 33 TAC considers that base-line data collection and analysis should continue at the Centers until an adequate knowledge base is created. At greater levels of specificity,: however, the responsibilities for this type of research should be taken over by national or regional research institutions. The Centers should also continue to work on developing new farming systems for major agroecological zones, particularly where physical resource limitations are great and where new concepts of resource management are necessary to achieve, a breakthrough in productivity as, for example, in the humid tropics. TAC sees this approach complementing the multidisciplin,ary commodity approach, rather than becoming a substitute for it. as TAC considers that since farming systems adaptive research, which incorporates on-farm research, is highly location-specific, it is more appropriate to the level of national, rather than international agricultural research. The CG System should, therefore, limit its activity in this area to strengthening national systems' capacities. Centers should continue to concentrate their effort on developing methodologies for farming systems adaptive research, training national scientists in these methodologies, and stimulating awareness of the benefits of this research approach. Centers should maintain active In all cases, linkages with these research programs in collaborating national systems, as a means of channelling critical feedback to the Centers' scientists on the performance of their technologies and the management strategies they have recommended. Finally, TAC fully recognizes the importance of factor research at ali research levels. At. the basic level, TAC is convinced that factor problems are most appropriately and efficiently carried outby specialized, within the CG factor-oriented institutions. However, System - which conducts research at the strategic and applied levels factor problems are appropriately and effectively addressed by the System's multidisciplinary, commodity-oriented approach. In the future, the CG System should actively support the The knowledge base strengthening of factor research outside the System. generated will be essential to the CG System's ability to respond effectively to future demands and opportunities of international Centers should, therefore, maintain active agricultural research. collaborative relationships with factor-oriented research institutions, but these institutions should not be incorporated into the CG System. In summary, TAC believes that the multidisciplinary commodity approach will continue to be the key to successful progress towards the In endorsing this approach, TAC, by implicaCG System's central goal. tion, endorses the concept of global commodity mandates. 3.3.3. Inter-center integrated cooperation: objectives The move towards a system with The independent CG System is rapidly evolving Centers into a system with from a loose federation integrated objectives. of This move 34 is at Centers’ initCative and, hence, fully in line with the principle of Center autonomy. It is motivated by a common goal, shared objectives, common constraints, and some overlap in mandates. It is reinforced by demands from national research systems and considerations regarding eEffciency and cost-effectiveness. Efforts towards integration take place strategy/policy level (Center Boards), at the management > , and at the sclentiEic level. The integration range from informal consultations, programming, to fully fledged collaboration in institution building. at various levels: at the program level (Centers’ various mechanisms for via joint planning and research, training and An impressive array of inter-Center cooperative arrangements has been developed without the creation of a central coordinating bureaucracy . As is documented in a recent state-of-the art report entitled “Inter-Center Cooperation - Actual and Potential”, inter-Center cooperation covers a wide range of activities. The broadest range of developed within the research commodity production systems. ities for: specific regions: productivity , such as factor adaptive research. cooperative activities among Centers has thrust to improve the productivity of These include the sharing of responsibilresearch on common constraints to issues; post-harvest problems; and A different form of cooperation has evolved in the System’s efforts directed towards generating a knowledge base for the formulation policy research of sound foc’d and agricultllral policies. In this area, IFPRT, which collaborates with other is concentrated in a lead Center, Work in the area Cent.ers and integrates their work into its products. ISNAR is the lead of institution building is similarly organized. Center, but other Centers are also active.and supportive of common objectives . Future challenges facing the System - such as the breadth in the complexities of the future technolodemand from national systems, gies required, and the gaps in basic knowledge relating to dryland - are likely to offer ample scope for expanded inter-Center agriculture cooperation. Common problems cutting across commodities and regions Task Eorces involving several lend themselves to common approaches. Centers as well as external sources of basic knowledge and funding could be the instftutional response to these challenges. Other areas offering opportunities for increased cooperation and division of labour through specializatton include training, the developand regional cooperation in downstream ment of research methodologies, training in station mana.gement - a subject activities. Examples are: - which could‘be offered by one or high in demand by national systems the development of methodologies for farming two Centers in the System; among Centers is systems research - an area where harmonization and downstream cooperation at the regional or subregional required; level in Africa, where the establishment or designation of a joint relay Center could be a solution. While the need and opportunities for coordination and cooperation among the Centers will increase, the objective must remain to optimize efficiency and productivity, not solely to maximize coordination and cooperation. The costs of coordination can be high, not strictly in financial terms, but also in the more intangible terms of the spirit of which has been so important to the successes of the Center autonomy, System in the past. 3.3.4. Collaboration towards closer in the global integration research system: The move The emergence of a global research system responding to food and agricultural development problems in the Third World was discussed in Chapter 2. This system combines the efforts of all.those institutions around the world that share the commitment to supporting agricultural research in developing countries and have the capacities to assist and complement national s'ystems. The CG System will continue to play an important role in the In defining its future role and functions, in particular global system. its division of labour and mode oE collaboration with others, three related trends need to be considered. The first is the growing acceptance by all components of the global system of the need Eor an integrated set of,common objectives grouped around a central long-term goal. The second is the need for an increase in collaboration among all partners in the global system in pursuit of this common goal. The third is the need for a move towards a more rational division of labour in the global system, guided by the comparative advantage of each of the components. These trends have clear implications for the CG System’s longThe move towards term role within the context of the global network. coherence and partnership implies a shift in the functions ,of the Centers and the national research systems. The national systems will increasingly take the lead role in generating technology, with the CG System facilitating linkages to basic science and assuming an expanded At the same time, however, service function to the national systems. the Centers will have to be selective in. responding to the broad range of demands from national systems by concentrating on those functions for which they have a clear comparative advantage. the System will have an expanded catalytic In the larger context, This will Involve: fostering cooperation and facilitating role. linkages among the various components; mobilizing support for and promoting the optimum use of all high-priority research areas; In. pursuit of a capacities and resources in pursuit of the goal. rational division of labour among members of the global system, the CG System should accelerate the transfer of location-specific research stimulate the increased involvement of functions to national systems, specialized institutions of advanced science in the research process, and encourage the involvement of technical assistance agencies in the areas of institution building and transfer of technology. 36, The operational mechanisms for implementing this enhanced linkage function will continue to be based on bilateral as well as multilateral collaborative arrangements. Networks provide a good example. Some involving national systems as leaders, Centers in a scientific backstopping function, and technical assistance agencies for institution building and transEer of technology - will focus on applied and adaptive Others - involving national systems, Centers as catalysts and research. and advanced institutions of basic science - will concenintegrators, trate on strategic and applied research. To he effective in such linkage functions, the Center programs need a strong scientific basis and the emphasis should always be on quality of scientific research rather than on the logistical functioning oE linkage mechanisms. Success depends on the relevance, level and quality of Centers’ research programs. 3.3.5. Service function to national research of the CG System systems: The evolving As national systems increasingly assume the lead role in the the CG System’s role with respect to them is generating technology, evolving towards that of a service function. This evolving role is in line with the basic concept of the System, and is consistent with its goal. Partnership with national systems has, from the System’s inception, been guided by the principle of universality, i.e. open access to the System for all seeking collaboration. The results of this are high and growing levels of demand for a broad range of products and services from national systems with widely differing needs and capacities. . In developing its strategy to establish demands, the CG System should take into account considerations: priorities among these the following 0 The need for balance among countries with widely varying research capacities. National research capacities tend to vary in three -The respects: among countries, among programs and over time. heterogeneity of capacities among countries is a well known phenomenon. Of equal relevance for designing the System's response are the variability in strength among various commodity programs within a given It needs to be recognized that and their evolution over time. country, the development of national programs is a dynamic process influenced by this development does not follow a pattern in most cases, many factors; There is no global solution: each Center will have of linear growth. to find its own balance. The need for a balanced and gradual move into more strategic and basic Efforts should be sustained to accelerate the process of research. national systems assuming primary responsibility for downstream particularly the testing and adapting of technologies to activities, - activities for which Centers have no particular specific environments countries with weak research programs or capacity. At the same time, systems will have to be supported in adaptive research until their capacities are built up. I 37' The need Ear balance among opportunities and needs. ---iesponsive to needs, the System should continue to opportunities that will generate the potential Ear With regard to payoff, it should be remembered that sound knowledge base, the time lag between the onset research and its eventual effects on producti.on is order of 7 to IO years. This is likely to be much the knowledge base is extremely limited. While being pursue acti,vely those future breakthroughs. even in areas with a of agricultural typically,of the longer in areas where The need for balance among regions. While it is recognized that the CG WI_ System must articulate a stance towards research in Sub-Saharan Africa, strategies should be based less on geographic regions than on meeting the needs of the less-developed countries throughout the world. TAC considers that greater System-wide attention should be given these problems of balance. For example, clear priorities are needed to avoid excessive attention to stronger clients. In a demand-driven system, stronger clients are likely to put greater pressures on the Centers For asslstance or collaboration: hence the need for prioritydriven decision making which will ensure the desired balance and the effective use of scarce resources. TAC considers that national systems should become equal with Centers in the planning and execution of programs destgned national needs. TAC recogni.zes that because of the di'fferences national systems and in the problems identified, the strategies collaboration will vary from Center to Center. partners to meet in guiding Nevertheless, TAC considers that in collaborative programs with the.CG Centers should increasingly the more advanced national systems, concentrate on such activities and services as: germplasm collection , and distribution; information collection and dissemination (i.e. the bridging role of Centers); network formation, facilitation and backstopping; and highly specialized training. Collaboration with the weaker programs should include, as well testing and adhpti.ng technothe above: providing finished varieties, logies to local conditions, training in a broader range of research This is not meant to Imply that and instftution building. topics, strategic and basic research will be required only by advanced national weaker systems. may have even greater needs for upstream systems: research. as 3.3.6. Long-term strategic research and basic strategy: research Greater involvement in From its inception, the CG System has concentrated on applied research. the research functions of the CG System have Over time, expanded to include some adaptive research, when national systems' capacities are weak; and some strategic/basic research, when gaps in In defining its long-term basic knowledge require such action. strategy, the System obviously needs to consider such factors as future research needs and opportunities in relation to evolving capacities in the global system. These have been discussed in earlier sections of this chapter. 38 The continued evolution of capacities in the global particular the development of national research systems and emergence of new actors on the scene (the private sector), shift in the division of labour. The gradual take-over of adaptive research by national systems should enable the CG concentrate a higher share oE its resources on stategic and research. It should also lead the CG System to expand its function for national systems, and to develop Its catalytic i.ntegtating eEforts among members of the global system. system, in the point to a applied and System to basic service role in To facilitate a gradual and balanced shift in emphasis towards the upstream levels of research, particularly strategic research, specific operational strategies will be required. The CG System will require a clear strategy to accelerate the process whereby national systems assume responsibility for adaptive and applied research. Collaborative research networks, involving national systems of varying capacities, have proved useful. in facilitating this process and in engaging the assistance of stronger national systems in the buildup of weaker ones. Second, the System wi.11 need to encourage a gradual shift of emphasis towards strategi.c and basic research on a broad range of edaphic and biotic constraints to increased productivity, particularly in rainfed agriculture. This type of research is complex and risky and, in many cases, requires considerable time to generate results that can The appropriate strategy for the CG System will be to be applied. strengthen collaborative arrangements with specialized institutions and to play a catalytfc role in articulating the major around the world; stimulating cooperation as well as mobilizing issues and problems, The degree of individual Centers’ involvement in research support. In cases where collaborative these functions is likely to vary. solutions wFth outside institutions are not available, Centers may have As this tends to imply considerable to conduct the research required. staff and operating costs, inter-Center investment in equipment, cooperation will be the most appropriate strategy. Whatever specific operational strategies are developed to perform these research functions, Centers will need to maintain and further strengthen their scientific base in order to monitor and use To perform its key functions developments from basic research. technology generation and linking national research’systems with basic science - it is essential that the CG System remain in touch with the This move is well under way at most of the cutting edge of science. and should continue to be reinforced. Centers, 39 CHAPTER 4. ASSESSMENT OF CGIAR PRIORITIES 4.1. The Analytical Approach to Priority Setting To ensure a high level of relevance, vigour and impact, the CG System must, at regular intervals, review the priorities it has used in formulating its program structure and its decisions on resource allocation. In order to proceed towards its goal, it needs to determine if shifts in emphasis among current activities should be made, if any new activities should be incorporated, and if any current activities should be phased out. This is a complex process. First, the dynamic nature of both research and the needs of international agriculture call for a constant reappraisal of efEorts. Second, priorities in the CG System have to be established among numerous and heterogeneous activities, all of which contribute to its goal and compete for scarce resources.' Third, since research is always a venture into the unknown, there is no direct correlation between the level of investment in a research area and its eventual product. Because of its past successes, the CGIAR is constantly under pressure to extend its activities. Yet, it is the System's concentration of effort on a relatively few areas of research that has pro'The resources available to the duced its achievements in the past. CGIAR are not infinite. Hence, it must remain alert to the danger of overextending itself and, by so doing, diluting its impact and ability Hard decisions have to be made to select those to meet its goal. activities on which the CG System, as one member of the global research and those that it should support through catalytic system, should focus, or collaborative endeavours. Rational d.ecisions on resource allocation among such activities require, as a precondition, a clear determination of priorities. In this review, TAC is concerned with priorities and planning of ,the System as a whole; detailed programming of individual Centers is In its assessment, TAC looked first at the beyond the purview of TAC. totality of the research and other activities undertaken by the System in order to establish guidelines for the long-term evolution of the It then assessed the prioriSystem's program structure and ,emphases. the primary vehicles for research in the System, ties among commodities, and finallly assessed the regional Implications of the global priorities it was recommending. In carrying out this scales were used: mediumSystem's program structure 10 years) for the priorities complex assignment, two different time to long-term (10 to 25 years) for the and emphases, and shortto medium-term among commodities. (5 to The analytical methods used for assessing priorities are presented in a general discussion in the introduction to each section below. A more complete discussion of the methods is presented in the Technical Annex, Parts 1 and 2. 40 4.2. Program Priorities steps are required in operational terms 3. The second step the activities under for priority assessment. the goal to he attained, is to link, in a clear review to. the operational The as and goal. Two essential Eirst is to define was done in Chapter structured manner, To establish priorities for the program structure of the System, TAC has, therefore, developed an analytical framework which relates all of the diverse.research and related activities of the System to the central goal. For this purpose, the programs and activities, to which funds are actually allocated, are organized into a set of eight program approaches (Table II). These program approaches, which reflect in concrete terms the eight interrelated objectives of the System, can be systematically assessed to determine their individual contributions to the attainment of the central goal (Figure l)., Figure II illustrates how the program approaches relate to each othef and to the central goal of the System. The program approaches can be thought of as converging on the central goal through four major program thrusts: enhancing management increasing systems; improving strengthening sustainable agriculture and conservation; the productivity of through resource - commodity production - the policy national environment; research and capacities. By concentrating on the removal o'f important technological, policy or institutional constraints, each approach contributes to one or more of the four program thrusts. Clearly, the thrusts of enhancing sustainable agriculture and increasing productivity are closely interrelated: longterm productivity depends on sustainable production systems. They are separated for the purposes of this discussion, however, to facilitate the analysis of how the activities and concerns associated with each thrust vary in importance in the System over time. The central thrust of the System is clearly technology generation for the increased productivity of commodity production systems. It is also the most complex, integrating research and 'related activities from resource management and conservation research, five program approaches: crop and livestock productivity research, commodity conversion and utilization research, and the analysis of human nutrition linkages. The closely related, and complementary program thrust of enhancing the longterm sustainability of agricultural production has grown in importance The emphasis given to this program thrust within the in recent years. System will undoubtedly continue to be strengthened in the future. The constraints national two other thrusts to progress in research capacities of the System concentrate on non-technical The effort to strengthen agriculture. has been integral to the CG System since 41 Table II. Program Approaches and Current Distribution of CGIAR Resources Resources USS (millions) (1983) ii Program Approaches x of total CCS research 6 related activities 1. Resource Management Conservation Research 6 Development management (1) of and an enhanced knowledge long-term conservation base for ensuring appropriate of the natural-resource base -9.2 4.5 -7.0 3.5 (2) (3) Plant genetic resource conservation and management - germplasm collection, chaiacteriration. documentation, storage and exchange development of improved techniques Conservation and management of the natural-resource base (land, water) to ensure long-term environmental stability and SOil, sustainable agricultural productivity agroecological aone characterization resource management and conservation at the farm level Energy management and conservation in agriculture increased efficiency of use of agrochemical inputs development of supplementary biological inputs and control mechanisms ‘4.7 3.5 2. Crop Productivity Research Development of an enhanced knowledge base and of technology components for the improvement of food crop production systems Primary objectives: enhance yield potentials; close gap between potential and actual yields; improve stability of yields: defend against erosion of attained yield gains thru maintenance research (I) Germplasm enhancement breeding international networks for exchange and materials development of new techniques Improved agronomic practices factor research under commodity approach plant/environment interactions on-farm adaptive research Crop protection integrated pest management Mechanization and farm equipment improvement Socioeconomica of farm management ruminant livestock and goats) production 75.2 57. I testing of genetic (2) (3) (4) (5) 3. Livestock Productivity Research Improvement of (cattle. sheep (I) systems 17.7 13.4 (2) Rangeland development, pasture Improvement, and animal improved rangeland management practices improved quantity and quality of available feed in and marginal areas Improved husbandry practices for higher productivity improved animal nutrition in integrated crop/livestock Ruminant disease research basic research on trypanosomiasis and thefleriosis research on trypanotolerance nutrition rangelands 12.2 9.2 systems 5.5 4.2 4. Commodity Conversion and Utiliaation Research Development of the required knowledge base and for the improvement of post-harvest systems to of agricultural commodities and their by-products (11, (2) (3) (4) technology components achieve fuller utilization for food and feed 0.9 - 0.7 - Improved technology for storage, processing and conversion of commodities to reduce losses and conserve quality Fuller utilization of agricultural by-products for food and feed Market and consumer preference studies Incorporation of post-harvest considerations into’commodityimprovement programs L-/ Core and Special Project Funds. See Technical Annex, Part 4 for approaches. assumptions used in calculating distribution of resources among program 42 Table II. (continued) Resources uss (millions) (1983) X of total CGS research 6 related activities 0.9 - l-/ Program Approaches 5. Analysis Human Nutrition Linkages of Development of an improved knowledge concerns are adequately addressed at (1) base to ensure that nutritional the r&search 6 policy Levels thru: 1.2 - (2) (3) (4) Research to improve understanding of the complex linkages between food production, technology development, food prices, income levels, equity in distribution of benefits, and human nutrition Generation of better information on.nutrltional requirements and nutrient contents of food commodities Monitoring nutritional quality of improved varieties Incorporating nutritional concerns into production research and related programs -3.0 -2.3 6. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Develop thru policy research the means for formulating national food and agricultural policies which will facilitate technological progress, optimal utilization of the resource base, as well as production, trade and consumption patterns in line with countries’ needs, goals and potentials (1) Policy research to develop the required knowledge base to assist developing countries to formulate sound food and,agricultural policies aggregate, country-level analysis household-Level analysis to determine impact of policies on welfare of low-income people Collaborate with national systems co identify policies which facilitate the generation, diffusion and utilization of improved technologies to increase food production Development of improved methodologies for policy research Strengthening national policy research capacities in collaboration with other buildup of national research relevant sources of capacities thru: assist- (2) (3) (4) 7. Strengthening of National Research Capacities Contribute, ante , to (1) 23.9 10.1 the (2) (3) (4) 8. Integration of Efforts Training and human resource development training national scientists training national research managers training of trainers and development of training materials assessment of training needs agricultural research systems Institution building - national buildup of organizational and management capacities strengthening of scientific capacities thru research collaboration (research networks, etc.) promotion of bilateral/multflateral cooperation with other research and development institutions buildup of the relevant knowledge base ConEerences, seminars, workshops, symposia Documentation, information, dissemination of materials structural and networking activities in pursuit of 13.3 10.1 2.1 1.6 [included 8.5 In (I) above] 6.4 Organizarional, this objective (1) (2) -0.7 -0.5 (3) (4) integration of CGS objectives and activities At the global level: with those of all partners in the global system harmonization of objectives, coordination of At the CGIAR level: programs and integration of research and research-related activities among 13 independent Centers in order to achieve maximum impact in cooperation terms of the System’s goal - Inter-Center ensuring that 8 program approaches move in At the program level: concert towards System’s central goal integration of Center-generated knowledge and At ihe country level: technology components into national research programs by ensuring that CGIAR efforts conform to national systems’ needs and priorities and and research-related operating i/ costs activities i/ 131.8 43.5 175.3 100 Sub-total: General Total Research administration CGIAR Operating Expenditures l/ Core and Special Project Funds. See Technical Annex, Part 4 for approaches. ’ assumptions used in calculating the distribution of resources among program CGIAR Goal Contributeto increasingsustainable food p&it&on in developingcountriesin sucha way that the nutritional levels andgeneral xonomic well-being of low incomepeople are improved ul C z -n A. l-4 l-4 EnhancingSustainable Agriculture Through Resource Management and Conservation Increasingthe Productivity of CommodityProduction StrengtheningNational Research Capacities ++ Improving the Policy Environment -. s .-. . . CmP Productivity Research Livestock Productivity Research Commodity Conversionand Utilization Research Analysis of Human Nutrition Linkages Training, Inslitution Building, Confcrcnccs, and Documcnlalion Food and Agricultural Policy Rcscarch 1 Integration of Efforts PROGRAM APPROACIIES 44 The role of research to improve the policy environment its inception. has expanded in the System since the first-burst of the Green Revolution as the impact of policy issues on the adoption and utilization in Asia, of improved technologies and the equitable distribution of benefits hecame increasingly apparent. The four thrusts together make up a comprehensive program with the potential to contribute significantly to international efforts to alleviate hunger and poverty in the world. TAC recognizes that cial, but it does facilitate goal of the System's total the program approaches can this analyticlal framework is somewhat an analysis of progress towards the effort. Necessary shifts in emphasis thus he identified and highlighted. artificentral among In the following discussion, the assessment of priorities among program approaches and the activities which constitute them is structured around three basis sets of considerations: relevance to the future opportunities, central goal, and the efficiency of the CG System - as one member of the global research system - to undertake the The discussion of each approach addresses: activity. the potential contribution thrusts and through them the priority circumstances: the adequacy ranking of of the approach to the program the System's central goal; approach in the light of changing to the - - of current funding levels; and to the the conseqllent need to change approach and among activities resource allocations within the approach. It should be pointed out, however, that the relative priority assigned to an approach and its related ob,jective(s) does not necessarily entail an assignment of CGIAR resources in proportional terms. the involvement of other instiFor example, in the post-harvest area, tutions and development agencies has allowed the allocation of resources within the CG System to continue at relatively modest levels. To facilitate comparisons among program approaches, the relative envisaged for the emphasis assigned to them, and the kinds' of changes an effort has been made to show the estimated distrihution of future, the System's present resources (core and non-core) by program approach. Figure III illustrates the current distribution of resources and the directions for shifts in resource allocation recommended by TAC for the long term. The considerations which guided the assessment of each approach In Part 4 of the Technical are listed in Part 1 of the Technical Annex. Annex are notes on the assumptions made in calculating the distribution of resources among the program approaches for this analysis. 4.2.1. Resource management and conservation quality natural research its growing poputhrough sound lation The world's ability to provide depends on the conservation of food to resources 45 Figure III Distribution Current and of Resources Among Directions Program for Approaches: the Long Term l/ 2/ - Recommended Present 57% q q q q I Analysis Linkages Crop of Human. Nutrition Research Productivity .productivity Livestock Research Commodity Utilization Conversion Research and ‘IClltidisclplinrry c-dity research Im Resource Management and Conservation Research •j Food Policy and Agriculture Research 13% Future I/ Relative allocation could be the u&r both the ro-grwth scenario the scerwio for increased fwdiq CUR. same ard to 2/ ‘lo-g horixn. ted reflects a 25-year planing 46 management. It'is a fundamental prerequisite for the long-term sustainability of agriculture. As Chapter 2 outlined, growth in population, urbanization and income will place steadily increasing pressure on the basic natural resources used in agricultural production (organisms, vegetation cover, land, soil, water and energy). These will have to he carefully shepherded and used more eEEicientLy if rising food demands are to he met; long-term environmental stahtlity cannot he sacrificed to meet immediate needs. This is a global concern to which the CG System should make an even stronger commitment in the future. CG System's Program Research and Future Approach Priorities to Resource Management and Conservation through develops this by through bers of in this The CG System is committed to the protection of natural resources its efEorts to ensure that the agricultural technologies it The CG System does Lead to sustainable agricultural practices. developing knowledge on resource management and conservation its own research and by drawing on that generated by other memthe global research system which have assumed leadership roles area (UNEP, FAO, UNESCO, TUCN, IUFRO, ICRAF, IIMI, IHSRAM). primary areas of involvement through this program The CG System's approach are: (a> (b) Ii', (4 plant genetic resource conservation and management: agroecological characterization: land management and soil conservation; water management and conservation; and energy in agriculture. It should he emphasized that this program approach does not comprise all of the CG System's activities in the program thrust for Many are included in the enhancing sustainable agricuLture (Figure II). interactions. commodity programs at the level of crop/environment Although the dlstinction is somewhat artificial, these other activities are reviewed later in this chapter under the crop and livestock productivity program approaches. (4 Plant genetic resource conservation and management Genetic diversity in domesticated plants, theLr wild relatives, and land races is the raw material employed by primitive cultivars, as the use of Ironically, breeders to develop improved crop varieties. To ensure that genetic diversity declines. improved varietfes expands,. breeders have access to a broad spectrum of genetic materials in the the CG System has developed a strong effort to conserve relevant future, This effort is the System's primary contribution to genetic resources. the conservation and management of natural resources within the global research system. The CG System has given highest priority to the CG System focus: essential activities of the collection and preservation of germplasm. Through both its direct and catalytic efforts, it has had a significant the Centers hold base, active, and working collections Today, impact. Internationally, of most of the crops that the CG System supports. there are over 30 long-term germplasm hanks and a network of germplasm 47 activities that involve more than the genetic variabiLity conserved collection activities tory level, characterization and documentation 80 countries and 50 cro'p species. As for each species reaches a satisfacphase down and emphasis shifts to the of collecttons. In addition to the germplasm banks at the Centers, the CG System, in collaboration with FAO, has a specialized institution IBPGR - dedicated to the preservation of genetic resources. It catalyzes and backstops the work of the national research systems, and provides leadership and advlce on establishing and managing germplasm collections throughout the world. IRPGR is at the forefront of research on ma,ior constraints to adequate conservation of germplasm. Future trends and priority ---- recommendattons: Due to its international character, th the System’s multidisciplinary may be considered under approach to research broad headings: in crop five germplasm enhancement; improved agronomic practices; crop protection; mechanization; and socioeconomics. enhancement plant breeding resistance to quality. (a> Germplasm Germplasm is enhanced through CG System focus: -incorporating by: increasing thepotential for yield, hazards, increasing production efficiency, and improving The potential for yield can be improved by increasing the total amount of dry matter produced (increased biomass) or by causing a greater proportion of the dry matter to be partitioned into the desired The former approach has been adopted product (increased harvest index). when all parts of the plant are important as, for example, in breeding where the straw’may be as important as the barley for animal feed, The latter approach is adopted when the grain is of primary grain. The high yields of as is usual for wheat and rice. importance, wheat and rice were attained, in part, through the incorpor“miracle” ation of genes to reduce the height (and thus the non-utilized biomass) of the plants. 52 Plant breeding for increased resistance to pests, diseases and environmental stresses, is fundamental for minimizing farmers’ losses. Protection against losses through purchased inputs is costly, but improved varieties that can resist attacks from pests or diseases or tolerate environmental stresses give protection at no extra cost to the Consequently, farmer. the search for sources of durable resistance and tolerance will remain at the forefront of the CG System approach. research needed to sustain the progress achieved (maintenance Moreover, research) will increase in importance and complexity. Plant breeding is also used t&increase efficiency in resource use. Productivity of land in some tropical environments, particularly in the traditional rice growing areas, has been markedly increased through the development of varieties that are insensitive to photo period. This permits more intensive use of land through multiple cropping because crops will matllre irrespective o.f ,the time of year. Similar achievements include the developmentof short-maturity varieties, such as the 60-day cowpea, that can complete their growth during short periods of rainfall or exploit the residual-moisture in the soil after a main crop has been harvested. Other types of contribution to increased efficiency include: adaptation of crops to greater mechanization for more efficient use of human resources, and the development of improved planting materials, such as true seed in the potato. Attaining improved quality with respect to nutritional composipalatability, ,and other consumption criteria (such as length of tion, time required for cooking), has also been .a priority in Centers’ breeding programs. These concerns figure prominently in the ultimate viability and consumer acceptance of an improved variety as a Food source. The feature that distinguishes the work of the CG System on germplasm enhancement from that of- any other organization is the extent of its global testing networks, run in collaboration with national systems. It is this feature, more than any other, that gives the System its comparative advantage. It enables both the Centers and the national programs to draw parental lines from widely differing sources and to evaluate their breeding materials over the widest possible range of agroecological conditions. The time required to estimate the stability oE the performance oE advanced breeding lines, potential varieties and parental materials is, therefore, considerably shorted. The methodology of germplasm enhancement is subject to continuous The Centers have been active in applying or change and development. developing new breeding and screening techniques, and diffusing them to In this role, as in national programs through training and networking. the System forms a vital’bridge between institutions*in developothers, ing countries and those advanced institutions throughout the world that are involved in basic rese.arch. TAC recommends Future trends and priority recommendations: germplasm enhancementremain a major priority within the CG System, recognizes that shifts in emphasis will be needed to meet changing circumstances: that but 53 With the evolving capacities of national systems, some of the stronger have been able to take on greater responsibilities in plant breeding to address their specific needs. This trend will undoubtedly become stronger, allowing the CG System gradually to scale down its resource commitment to this area over. the long term. In the future, TAC foresees a ,continuation 6f the transfer to national systems of the responsibilities of producing finished varieties and of organizing and operating the testing networks. At the same time, in response to national needs, Centers' efforts should increasingly concentrate on the earlier stages of germplasm enhancement, which involve the evaluation of germplasm and the pooling of desirable characteristics into parental material. Similarly, Centers should devote a greater effort to those crops on which less strategic research has been done in the past, such as sorghum and millet. Centers must continue to keep c-losely in touch with deve.lopments in the rapidly developing area of tissue culture and molecular biology. Linkages with advanced institutions must be strong enough to enable relevant aspects of .DNA technology, as well as new techniques in biochemistry and tissue culture, to be applied to Centers' programs as they become available. In these respects, it will be necessary for the expertise of Center staff to he gradually strengthened through training and recruitment. The degree and rate of the shift in the CG System towards more strategic research in germplasm enhancement will clearly vary with the different strengths of the national systems. The CG System will continue to backstop and advise national systems on their breeding programs and will continue to assist the weaker national systems directly at all levels of the breeding process. ,(b) ment, Improved The plant agronomic practices include soil and cropping and water systems. manage- term agronomy is used here to nutrition, cultural practices CG System focus: The CG System focus is on understanding' the basic principles of agronomy and using them to develop methodologies for Because agronomy is on-farm research and novel cropping systems. location-specific, and hecause on-farm research with a farming systems perspective features strongly in this focus, Centers have made collaboThese arrangements have rative arrangements with national systems. especially when in the form of collaborative research demonstrated, networks, their appropriateness for carrying out this adaptive research. In the CG System approach to increasing crop productivity, factor rebut always within the context of a search is not done in isolation, specific crop and the environment for which it is actually or potentially suitable. Methods of soil and water management that can be adopted by subsistence farmers are vital for sustaining crop productivity in rain-' fed agriculture in the tropi,cs. In the semi-arid tropics, where the efficient use of available rainfall is the key, the System has concentrated on cultural practices that reduce runoff and enhance infiltration. In the more humid zones, protection of the soil surface assumes 54 overriding techniques importance, which use and work either live has or concentrated dead plant on a range material. of mulching Improving biological. nitrogen fixation is one aspect of soil management related to plant nutrition. The CG System has pioneered research on various forms of intercropping in which leguminolls crops contribute nitrogen to the soil (and provide additional yield of a hig,h-protein food crop. For the more humid regions, alley cropping which may be regarded as a form of agroforestry - has been developed. The alleys formed hy leguminous shrubs not only fix nitrogen but also provide many of the advantages of natural tree cover; they protect the soil and contribute through deep rooting to the recycling of nutrients. They are also a source of poles and fuelwood, while the leaves provide browse for animals or mulch For the soil. In its work on fertilizers, the System has collaborated with specialized institutions such as IPDC. Examples of this research include: the development of slow-release nitrogenous fertilizers for use.in rice paddies, and the investigation of methods of fertilizer placement to overcome problems of unavailability of phosphate due to binding in certain tropical soils. TAC recommends that . ---Future trends and priority recommendations: ---1___ in the short to medium term the CG System continue its present approach to improving agronomic practices by linking the research closely to specific crops or cropping systems. More specifically, TAC recommends biological fixation of nitrogen: that stronger emphasis be placed.on: problems of rainfed agriculture, particularly management and cu1tura.l practices to enhance soil and water conservation; and development of whole-farm, integrated crop/livestock production systems. As the capacity the search increases, backstopping function. of national role of the systems to undertake their CG System should evolve to own rethat of a Collaboration with specialized institutions such as IAEA, ICRAF, IFDC and IIMI, and the further development of networks such as IBSRAM, will feature strongly in the future development of research on the basic principles for improved agronomic practices. (cl Crop protection Methods of crop protection have changed rapidly during the past decade. The rising costs,of oil-based chemicals, their loss of effectiveness through evolving tolerance in the populations of pests and diseases, and growing public concern about pollution of the environment, During,the have all cast doubts on the indiscriminate use of chemicals. same period, advances have been made in understanding the circumstances that promote greater persistence or durability in the genetic resistance Both sets of considerations have led to bred into new crop varieties. more holistic approach to crop protection, in which the synergistic effects of different control measures are exploited. CG System focus: tions to=h on this and diseases. There are The CG System is making significant contrihuintegrated approach to the management of pests four main aspects to the System's work: a 55 varietal resistance, sease organisms, the the identifi.cation efficient use and monitoring oE chemicals, and of pest biological and dicontrol. The need for chemical control is minimized by attempting to breed into a single variety durable resistance to its ma.jor pests and diseases (multiple resistance). This approach features strongly in the Centers’ programs. In one approach to combatting variabclity -Ln the pest or pathogen, multi-line varieties are being developed in which the individual components have different resistance genes but are similar in other respects. As a consequence, the variety retains its agronomic and nutritional characteristics but the diversity of resistance genes retards the rate of multiplication of any parttcular race of the ‘pathogen. In breeding and maintaining resistant varieties, constant vlgilance is necessary, and the work is closely linked to monitoring the occurrence of known races of pests and pathogens and identifying new In the root and tuber crops, Ear example, previously unknown ones. viruses have been identified and characterized. Work on the more efficient use of chemicals has several aspects. For the control of insect pests, for example, the aim is to kill the pests without reducing the effectiveness of their natural predators and parasites. Preferred insecticides are those that can be targetted to specific pests. Regimes of varied timing and frequency of application are also used to minimize the undesirable effects. Adequate control of weeds is fundamental to crop productivity in all tropical environments. Although herbicides are relatively expensfve, the System’s approach is to examine their use as an aid to timely weed control, particularly where there are bottlenecks in the availability of labour. Some work has been done by the System on the control of but the problem remains serious for a range the parasitic weed Striga, of crops in Sub-Saharan Africa; North Africa/Near East and the Indian subcontinent, and a greater effort is required. The System is also involved in aspects of biological control. This approach has yielded promising results, for example, for the control in Sub-Saharan Africa of two pests of cassava: the mealy bug and the green spider mite. Testing of the biological control of root-knot nematode is under way, as are investigations into the use of pheromones and the insect-repelling properties of common weeds for reducing pest attacks on stored commodities. Future trends and priori.ty recommendations: Research on the --integracd ‘management of pests .and diseases will. continue to be a ma,ior component of the System’s approach to crop productivity. Increasingly, the work will involve collaboration with other organizations in the development of more suitable chemicals and control techniques that can In this connecbe incorporated into integrated methods of management. tion, TAC recommends strong support within the System for the initiatives taken by CASAFA and other organizations in stimulating research on the control of parasitic weeds. TAC also supports collaboration with appropriate institutions in the development of new approaches to pest as these become feasible from and disease resistance and control, advances in molecular biology. 56 Cd) Mechanization The introduction of mechanization into crop production systems has an important part to play in the process of agricultural development in spite of the fact that, in most developing countries, the agricultural sector could still absorb a significant share of the labour force. Well-adapted mechanization increases efficiency, facilitates timeliness and leads to greater productivity, not only with respect to labour but also with respect to land. It reduces the drudgery Erom routine farm operations, thus making farming a more attractive career. CG System focus: The CG System has, in general, confined its involvement in mechaxzation to surveying and testing existing machinery and equipment. It has become involved in modifications or the design of new equipment only when significant gaps in the available range have been detected. Numerous types of machinery and equipment have been successEully introduced into national programs and tested under local conditions. Future trends and priority ------recommendations: While TAC fully -I_-____ recognizes the importance of mechanization in agricultural development, it sees the further development of farm machinery and equipment as being primarily the task of manufacturers. Consequently, it foresees less' emphasis of work on mechanization within the CG System as greater responsibility for this work is assumed by national systems. (e) Socioeconomics CG System focus: Research on social and economic factors influencing production, consumption and distribution of foods is carried out within this program approach to ensure that the technology developed to increase productivity will be relevant and appropriate for the needs and circumstances of the eventual users. If improved technologies are to have the desired impact of increasing food production, they have to be adopted and used on a wide scale by farm families. This means that a technology cannot be judged solely in terms of its performance under the favourahle and controlled in terms conditions of the experiment station; it must also perform well That IS, for a technology of criteria important to the ultimate users. to be adopted, it must address the needs of farm families and enable it must be appropriate for them to meet their goals more effectively; their management conditions and perform well under those conditions; and it must not have negative side effects which, from the users' perspecoutweigh its advantages of increasing productivity.. Determining, tive, needs and criteria for evaluating technothrough research, the users' and integrating that perspective into the process of research logies, programming and technology generation is largely the responsibility of social scientists in the Centers. Due to the location specificity of user-oriented research, the deriving basic socioeconomic Centers are primarily concerned with: principles relevant to commodity research and technology development; gathering, analyzSng and disseminating information to sensitize national researchers and policy makers to users' considerations; developing and training national scientists. effective research methodologies; 57 On the macro-level of the nation or region, the types of'research include: commodity-market studies: consumer-preference studies to assist breeders in developing varieties that will have broad consumer acceptance: regional economic studies to determine the economic viability of improved technologies and diagnose potential constraints to adoption: geographic surveys and mapping of types of Farming systems: and surveys of technology adoption to determine the impact of improved technologies and differential patterns ,of 'adoption acco'rding to such factors as farm type or size, farmer characteristics, and ecological zone. On the micro-level of the farm and household economy, social science research is used to analyze those factors (social, economic, political and environmental) which determine farm-manag'ement practices and use of improved technologies. These include: farm families' needs, priorities and goals for production and consumption; the division of labour and reponsibilities by age and sex within households; means of access to resources and factors of production, such as land, labour and capital: and constraints and 'opportunities in the production, storage and marketing of food commodities. Future trends and priority recommendations: TAC recognizes that the social, economic and political environment of agriculture in developing countries is dynamic and evolving. Active social science research programs are, and will continue to be necessary to interpret these developments and establish their relevance to both the.process of technology development and the establishment of research priorities within the Centers. For the long term, TAC recommends that Centers' social science programs concentrate primarily upon the macro-level areas of research. The responsibilities for micro-level. research, which is highly locationspecific and most pertinent to the adaptive levels of research, should be increasingly taken over by national systems. CG System scientists should continue to have an important role in backstopping and advising' national research programs, but should be less involved in carrying out research themselves. They should concentrate on refining methodologies as well as catalyzing interest in and training national researchers, An example of the latter is the current areas of international concern. need to promote awareness of the important role of women in farming systems and the necessity of integrating their concerns more fully into Social scientists in research programming and technology development. the CG System should also have the key role of ensuring that feedback user-oriented research is integrated effectively from national systems’ into Centers' research programs. Implications for Future Resource Allocation Currently, 57% of the CG System budget is allocated to the program approach of crop productivity research. TAC recommends that the central role of this approach within the CG System be maintained in the future. TAC considers that because the capacity of national sys'tems to share the research responsibilities is increasing, the proportion of resources allocated to this program aproach could be reduced to 48% in the long term without jeopardizing its strength. 58 The long-term decrease in the proportion of resources allocated to crop productivity research will enahle the CG System to strengthen several of the collateral and complementary program approaches which are also integral to commodity research - in particular, livestock productiand resource management and conservation. It should be stressed vity, here that TAC's recommended decrease in the relative effort specifically allocated to the crop productivity program approach does not imply a. weakening of the commodity programs. On the contrary, as Figure III clearly shows, it reflects a hroadening and reinforcement of the multidisciplinary commodity approach in the manner that was described in Chapter 3. 4.2.3. Livestock productivity research Animals are an integral part of the world's food production systems. Although the bulk of human food will always be provided by plants, animals supply high-quality protein foods, commercial products, and valuable inputs to production systems, particularly in the form of energy in traction, manure and transport. Animals also provide an important source of cash to subsistence farmers and can act as a catalyst in the development of small farms. Additionally, in some regions, such as dry rangeland areas, animals are the only means of converting plant provide the basic means for subsismaterials into food. They, thus, tence to the peoples of these regions. The demand for livestock products is highly correlated with inTo meet projected future demand (Annex come'growth and urbanization. Table 3) in developing countries, ,substantial increases in livestock This presents a significant productivity will have to be attained. production systems Animal challenge for world agricultural research. Depending on the agroecological zone and are complex and very diverse. they range from nomadic and extensive patterns of social organization, through a wide variety of integrated crop/livestock rangeland systems, to intensive systems of milk, poultry and beef production. systems, CG System's Program Future Priorities Approach to Livestock Productivity Research and As one member of the global research system, the CG System has been highly selective in the problems it has elected to address in liveIts research has focussed on constraints stock productivity research. should have a broad international impact on areas which, when removed, In order in which there has been little research attention in'the past. to maintain a concentrated research effort, it has limited its research efforts to the problems of the most important ruminants - cattle, sheep and goats. The CG System's are: (a) rangeland nutrition: control of two primary research foci in this program approach development, and ruminant pasture improvement and animal (b) diseases. 59 (a) Rangeland development, pasture improvement and animal nutrition and the crop The CG System has a strong research program on rangelands areas marginal for cropping, which represent a vast underutilized resource in developing countries. Its efforts center on improving quantity and quality of available feed (forage, browse, pasture, residues), as well as husbandry practices, in order to raise the productivity of ruminant livestock. The principal constraint-to Livestock systems in these areas is the seasonal shortage of feed, and competition between calves and humans for limited milk supplies. This results in poor reproductive and growth rates and, thus, low productivity. The CG System's program to eliminate nutritional deprivation includes the selection of grasses, legumes, and other species for improved productivity during the growing season, and for improved quality and longevity during the dry season. In areas where livestock are integrated into mixed-farming systems, improved animal nutrition is aLso a primary research concern. The strategy is to improve the quality of pasture on the areas marginal for cropping and to include ieguminous crops on the arable Lands to provide'supplementary feed during the dry seasons. Novel approaches include: alley cropping of food crops with deep-rooted, woody species used for browse and firewood; and Legume protein banks to supplement impoverished pastures. 'The CG System recognizes that sound management practices will be essential if increased carrying capacity is to be attained without causing environmental degradation in these fragile ecologies. LOSS of land productivity from overgrazing is already a serious concern in parts of Africa and Latin America. To address this concern in many of the poorly understood livestock systems in Africa and the Near East, several Centers have collected extensive base-line data on management practices This and on the social and economic factors influencing production. information enables the Centers to more accurately diagnose constraints to production and to develop component technologies which will be environmentally sound and acceptable to the producers. (b) Control of ruminant diseases a major constraint to increased producIn Sub-Saharan Africa, the situation is of trypanosomiasis and theileriosis prorangelands for livestock production, and of ruminants into farming systems in some are Diseases in ruminants tion in developing countries. The presence most critical. hibits the use of extensive also inhibits the integration forest zones.' To address this'major constraint to ruminant production; the CG System established a center dedicated specifically to basic pathbreaking research on control of trypanosomiasis and theileriosis. The research requires a long-term, continuous, and concentrated effort. It is a high-risk venture, but the potential payoff is enormous. Low-cost control of these diseases would lay the foundation for revolutionizing agriculture in much of Sub-Saharan Africa. 60 Future Trends and Priority Recommendations TAC considers that the CG System's research on constraints to livestock productivity has'been strongly focussed and is beginning to yield poSitive results. In light of the important contribution animals can make to sustainable production systems and the future demand for, livestock products, TAC recommends tha't,the priority of Livestock proin the CG System he eLevated,and research efforts expanded. ductivity The CG System is at the forefront of basic research on theileriosis and trypanosomiasis. However, due to the complexity of the research problem, progress IS Likely to be slow. Progress, therefore, cannot be measured on the same time scale as other programs. TAC consequently recommends that the current level of effort continue at least through the medium term. In approximately 10 years, the research should be reviewed to evaluate the potential for positive results. TAC considers that the CG System should increase its multidisciplinary research efforts on improving animal nutrition by intensifying its focus on rangeland and pasture improvement programs and its work in areas marginal for cropping. This effort must be strongly supported with research on environmentally sound livestock management systems so that stocking levels can be increased without deleterious effects on the resource base. TAC recommends that efforts be initiated to evaluate the potential impact of successful research on ruminant diseases on the ecology of the African rangelands. If these zones are opened up for explosions in human and animal populations could pose a exploitation, significant ecologicaL danger. Programs to develop technologies and management systems appropriate for sustainable production should therefore be set in motion in the near term. TAC recommends that improved nutrition of cattle in Latin America be a high priority in the short to medium term'since the demand for beef and milk is expected to rise faster there than in Asia or Africa. In North Africa/Near East and Sub-Saharan Africa, TAC encourages the CG System to strengthen its research on small ruminants in the medium to long term. As part of crop/livestock systems, they are important components of pastoral systems in the semi-arid tropics and elsewhere. Small ruminants are particularly important as both subsistence and commercial commodities to the poorest people in these regions. TAC further recommends that research on'integrated crop/livestock systems have a higher priority within the CG System's program approach With the increasing need to intento improve livestock productivity. sify agricultural production and make more efficient use of resources, Animals are valuable integrated systems will play a critical role. sources of input to production systems and they can effectively utilize An important aspect of this focus is crop residues and by-products. This should be a high priority improved nutrition for draught animals. in Africa where animal traction could be used in some areas to alleviate to agriculseasonal labour bottlenecks - one of the major constraints tural production. 61 Implications for Future Resource Allocation Currently, 13% of the CG System's resources are used in this program approach. TAC recommends that the allocation be increased to 15%. Currently, ruminant production - primarily rangeland and pasture improvement - receives 9% and animal diseases 4%. TAC considers that the level of resources allocated to animal diseases should continue at current levels. However, with the increased demand for livestock products projected for the future, TAC recommends that resources to ruminant production be increased in the short to medium term. 4.2.4. Commodity conversion and utilization research post'byprothese Commodity conversion and utflization comprises an array of harvest activities: the storage, processing, conversion, transport, distribution and utilization of agricultural commodities and their products for food and feed. These activities are integral to the cess of getting products from the field to the consumers. All of factors influence the degree to which food and feed are available throughout the year, as well as their nutritional quality. Losses in quality and quantity of food and feed can occur at all stages of the post-harvest process. The main sources of perishability are: damage from microorganisms, insects and other pests: spoilage from physical abuse; and chemical and metabolic breakdown. Increasing the amount of food available for consumption through better protection against post-harvest losses would make a significant impact on improving the welfare and nutritional levels of low-income people. CG System's and Future Program Priorities Approach to Commodity Conversion and Utilization The CG System has paid increasing attention to although it remains a relatively nology in recent years, within the context of the whole System. The approach in three areas: storage critical conversion products; utilization the utilization bread. - primarily problems, and and of for e.g. those roots of commodities and tubers, selected crop post-harvest techlimited effort has concentrated with the and grain and most legumes; - processing livestock - food commodities of cassava in and flour their by-products, e.g. composites for making All of the research and technology development associated approach is done on a commodity basis for application at farm/village level. with the this tional) issues Numerous constraints (biological, technological and instituThe complexity of the are operative in the post-harvest stage. involved in alleviating these constraints goes well beyond the 62 capacittes and mandates of the Centers. In this program approach, the CG System makes its most effective contribution by supporting the efforts of other members of the global research system who perform leadership roles. Program efforts lend themselves almost ideally to a three-way cooperative arrangement. Food technology institutions and national research systems provide feedback to Centers' commodity improvement programs about processing-quality requirements and consumer preferences. Future Trends and Priority Recommendations The need for improved post-harvest technologies for food commodities will increase in the future with growth in urbanization and income levels, and the correlated increase in demand for processed foods. The increased demand for livestock products will also call for improved post-harvest technologies for storing, converting and utilizing feeds. TAC, therefore, .recommends that the CG System moderately increase its efforts in this approach, beginning in the short term. In TAC's view, the current focus of research on key post-harvest constraints which limit the full potential impact of commodity improvement programs is effective and should be maintained. TAC considers that the increase in the CG System's research efforts should be directed towards selective problems of storage and processing of food and feed at and to the fuller utilization of surplus the village and farm level, biomass for production inputs. Feedback from national research systems and specialized institutions on consumer preferences and processing characteristics should continue to be emphasized. Lack of viable Roots and tubers merit particular attention. post-harvest technology for storage, processing, and conversion into commercial products fs a primary constraint to their expanded.use for Livestock products are a second key area for both food and feed. research. increases in the future, the processing and As productivity conversion of surplus production (primarily milk and meat) into consumer products will require greater attention within the Centers concerned. Given the need for improved post-harvest technologies, TAC recommends that the CG System encourage and support other organizations in their efforts in this area. Since many of the constraints and appropriate technologies are location-specific, the CG System should assist the national agricultural research systems to work in direct In the long term, TAC collaboration with specialized institutions. foresees the CG System addressing commodity conversion and utilization research primarily through germplasm enhancement, while other members the global system work on applied and adaptive ,technologies. of Implications for Future Resource Allocation In accord with its recommendation for increased emphasis on TAC proposes a moderate increase in research in the post-harvest area, funds allocated to the commodity conversion and utilization program approach from the current level of approximately I%, to 2% of the total budget. This increase should be instituted in the near term and remain constant through the long term. 63 4.2.5. Analysis ‘of human nutrition linkages nutrition for low-income.people in developing countries Improved is a key element of the central goal of the CG System. In order to attain this, at Least three conditions must be met: a sufficient quantity of food must be available: the nutritional quality of the food must be adequate to meet the needs of the population; and, food must reach those people. Most of the CG System’s efforts are directed towards improving nutrition through increasing the total production of basic foods. Increased food production improves the welfare of not only producers’who have more to consume and surplus to sell for cash, but also of lowincome consumers, who benefit from lower food prices. Nutritional concerns have also figured prominently in the CG System’s selection of commodities to be researched. Its commodity improvement programs encompass both cereal crops and roots and tubers - which provide the bulk of calciries for human consumption - as well as .commodities which are i.mportant sources of proteins and fats: food legumes and livestock. The CG System has, thus, adopted a broad approach to improving the nutritional well-being of low-income people. The.System recognizes, however, that there is no definitive relationship between the amount of food available on an aggregate basis and the nutritional levels of the population, particularly those of the poor. The nutritional quality of food and the equity of its distribution among sectors of the population are critical intervening variables. must also be important concerns of the CG System. It is They, thus, these two factors which are addressed specifically under the System’s program approach to-human nutrition. The concerns of this program approach are especially pertinent to two groups of low-income people: those with special nutritional needs, such as infants, children, and pregnant and lactating mothers; and those whose access to food is limited to what they are able to purchase, The nutritional standards of both such as the landless and urban poor. of these groups can be enhanced through income generation, which would permit households to purchase a greater variety of less-costly foods, and through the enhancement of the nutritional quality of staple foods which constitute the bulk of their diets. CG System’s Program Approach to Human Nutrition and Future Priorities The CG System recognizes that most of the causes of malnourishment result from the two factors addressed in this program approach inadequate nutritional quality and lack of equity in access. The System’s approach has been to develop an improved knowledge base to ensure that nutritional concerns are adequately addressed in production research and integrated into policy formulation. The CG System employs several means of identifying nutritional It routinely monitors the relevant to production research. co~odities it works with to ensure that crop improvement goals do not reduce nutritional quantity or quality (especially of protein) or increase anti-nutritional substances beyond the levels of existing factors 64 cultivars. In some breeding programs, mInera contents are used as selectton undertake consumer-preference studies been improved according to production acceptable to consumers. improved protein or vitamin and criteria. Some Centers also to ensure that varieties that have or nutri.tional standards.are The CG System also draws on the work of the members of the institutions research system - such as FAO, WHO and specialized information on the relationships between nutri.tion and production. These organizations undertake research in such crCtfca1 areas as nutrItiona requirements of various sectors of the population and nutrients available in different foods. global for the the The CG System's main Cnvolvement in nutriti.onal matters is policy research and analysis. The objective of the policy research is to generate macroand micro-level analyses of the complex linkages among food policies: production, consumption and distribution of food: and the income and nutrftional levels of low-income people. The results of the analyses provide guidelines to assist national governments in designing sound food policies for improving the nutritional well-being of their people in an equitable way. The studies have analyzed the effects on the nutrttional levels of low-income people of food subsidies and pricing policies, and, more recently, of the commercialization of small-holder agriculture. Future Trends and Priority Recommendations Given the importance of policy research for more effectively addressing the problems of malnourishment and for ensuring that the benefits of the CG System's production researchreach low-income TAC recommends that this component of.the approach receive high people, Efforts should be intensified so that analpriority in the short term. the relationships and linkages recognized, and yses can be completed, an adequate knowledge base generated to assist national governments to formulate sound policies. Although the CG System's village studies have been useful in developing methodologies for determining selection criteria shaping food TAC considers that national agripreferences and consumption patterns, cultural research systems should execute these studies in the future. They are inherently location-specific and most relevant to the adaptive the Centers should maintain Clearly, stage of agricultural research. channels for feedback from these studies to their commodity improvement programs. Implications for Future Resource Allocation TAC recommends a moderate increase in funding from 1% to 2% for This should enable the CG System, in collaborathis program approach. to develop an improved knowledge base on tion with national systems, human nutrition linkages for use by policy makers in developing countries. It should also permit the CG System to integrate relevant findings from research on nutritional concerns, that is essentially carried out by its partners in the global system, into its commodity improvement programs. 65 4.2.6. Food and agricultural policy research The policy environment has an important hearing on the performance of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Government policies shape, to a large extent, the behaviour of consumers (demand) and producers (incentives to production) through the prices they establish for food commodities, export crops and inputs. In this way, the policy environment influences the agricultural sector's capacity to absorb improved technologies and utilize resources cfEectively for increased productivity. It also has a direct impact on the extent to which the results of agricultural research, i.e. improved technologies,' ' are used to increase food production and to benefit the poor. A policy environment favourable to increased food production and- the equitable distribution of its beneEi.ts is, thus,'a key condition for the attainment of the CG System's central goal. The CG System's Program Approach Research and Future Priorities to Food and Agricultural Policy Through this program approach, the CG System endeavours to develop the means for formulatfng national food and agricultural policies which will facilitate: technological progress: optimal utilization of the resource base; and changes in production, trade and consumption patterns which better satisfy countries' needs, goals and potentials. Towards areas: the this end, the CG System's efforts are concentrated in three development of the required knowledge base; for policy and research the development which national of improved methodologies research systems can utilize; - training and other forms of collaboration aImed at strengthening national capacities to generate sound policies. Policy research, which generates the knowledge base necessary for improving the policy environment, is currently the principal component of this program approach. The CG System has emphasized policy research because it contributes to a better understanding of the numerous and complex linkages between the goals 'of societies, their resource endowments, and alternative courses of action to attain these goals. Policy has to balance the multiple, and often conflicting, relationships and interests among the various groups affected by such policies (consumers vs. producers, urban vs. rural populations, rich vs. Furthermore, sound policy must be tailored to meet the specific poor). Conneeds, resources, goals and capacities of indivtdual countries. sequently, the CG System's approach to improving the policy environment is not to develop broad policy prescriptions, but,to generate the tools It has used policy research, therefor formulating rational policy. fore, to develop a solid knowledge base about these complex linkages, from which principles can be derived for policy makers to apply in It has also endeavoured to refine methodnational policy formulation. ologies for national systems to use in policy research oriented towards their specific needs. 66 The policy research undertaken by the CG System is directed largely towards fdentifying policies and strategies for developing countries.which facilitate the generation, diffusion and utilization of improved technologies to increase food production and improve the general economic welfare of low-income people. The System has a lead Center in policy research - IFPRI - which collaborates with the other Centers and with national research institutions. Research is carried out at the aggregate global/national level to determine the complex relationships among factors such as resource utilizatfon, production, trade and consumption in relation to a country's needs, goals and potenti.als. It is also conducted at the disaggregate level of the village and household to determine the impact of policies on the general welfare of low-income people, and on the level of the farm in order to understand how policies stimulate or constraCn technological progress within the agricultural sector. Future Trends and Priority Recommendations Research has shown that poorly defined policies often act as major constraints to technological progress in food production, and/or to the equitable distribution of benefits from such progress to lowThese problems will undoubtedly become more acute in the income people. future with the increasing pressure of population on natural resources and with escalating demands for food. with the recognition Therefore, that policy research is a relatively recent effort within the CG System and that it has considerable potential for payoff, TAC recommends that this program approach receive a higher priority within the System in the short to medi-urn term. For the future, System should emphasize activities are: TAC considers that policy issues of transnational research concern. in the CG Appropriate the defining of policies and stimulate production, the rural poor; which stimulate income growth increase food and employment for - .the analysis of the effects of agricultural and food policies on various types of agricultural production units and their respective capacities to integrate technological change for increased productivity; the the exploration of developing-country suitable responses to the rapid demand for imported food; food security growth in - - the investigation world's poorest of means to develop countries and people; for the - the analysis of the effects of agricultural and food policies on other sectors of the economy and. the implications for rural and national development; and the exploration in food trade of the and aid. means for international cooperation - 67 TAC considers that the CG System should continue in its efforts to develop methodologies and strengthen national institutions through training, research collaboration, and backstopping in policy formulation. Imnlications for Future Resource Allocation TAC recommends a moderate increase in funding for food and agricultural policy research from approximately 2% to 3% of the CG System's resources. This moderate increase does not directly reflect the higher priority ranking recommended for efforts to improve the policy environment. TAC considers, however, that in light of the many the CG System’s efforts should be needs and limited resources available, essentially catalytic in this area and emphasize close collaboration with national institutions and others active in this field, such as universities and international development agencies (FAO, World Bank, etc.). With-a strong lead Center actively cooperating with other Centers in the System, this type of role should be effective. TAC considers that the increase in funds should be sufficient to build up the critical mass of senior scientists required for the lead Center. t 4.2.7. Strengthening national research capacities The objective of strengthening national agricultural research capacities in developing countries has been integral to the philosophy of the CG System since its inception. National systems are both clients and collaborators of the Centers. Hence, their strength is integral to Weakness in national agriculthe System's progress towards its goal. tural research systems in terms of scientific capacity, institutional presents a significant obstacle not development and resource endowments, only to the indigenous generation of improved technologies, but also to the suctiessful adoption, at the farm level of the technological compoThe long-term objective is to enable nents generated by the Centers. national systems increasingly to take care of their own technology with the CG System assuming a more supportive role. requirements, CG System's Approach Future Priorities to Strengthening National Research Capacities and Initially, the issue of strengthening national research systems The shortage of was conceived in terms of developing human resources. well trained scientific manpower was targetted as the most pressing The CG System's response concentrated on training research concern. scientists and techniciansin national systems, building up scientific capacities through collaborative research, and fostering scientific cooperation and the dissemination of information through conferences and publications. The assumption was that strengthened institutional capacities would grow out of these efforts. that this approach alone was Gradually it became clear, however, The overall institutional weaknesses and low absorptive not sufficient. capacities of national agricultural research systems persisted as impedTo address this problem, iments to the transfer of new technologies. 68 the CG System created ISNAR, to assist national institutions to systematically develop their capacity to organize, plan and manage their research systems from national resources. This Center's effort supplements that provided by other CG Centers and some of the other members of the global system, such as FAO. Strengthening tant thrust within its annual budget. national research capacities the CG System today, accounting The approach is comprised of represents an imporfor just over 18% of four components: (a) (b) training: institution conferences, documentation building: seminars, and workshops; and library services. and These are and TAC's reviewed in turn below with respect to recommendation for their future priority their in current status the System. (a> Training CG System focus: Training has always comprised a major share of the CG System’s effort. Together with conferences, it accounts for slightly more than 10% of the funds annually. Over 18,000 professionals have benefitted from training by the CG System. Its impact, which has recently been documented in TAC's "Study of Training in the CGIAR has laid the foundation for many of the System's successes. System", The CG System's unique contribution is the intimate link it provides between training and research. Due to the heterogeneity in national capacities and needs, there is a wide spectrum in the types of training programs offered. Centers provide courses on the production In the more and on the breeding of a broad range of commodities. specialized courses, a broad range oE disciplines and skills is encomsuch as on-farm research methods, sophisticated techniques for passed, strategic research, and the management of research programs and institutions. The CG System also provides degree-related and mid-career upgrading study programs. It considers these to be vital both to the process of technology transfer and adoption, and to the process of forging a closer and more fruitful collaboration between Centers and national agricultural research systems, universities, and other specialized institutions. TAC recommends that Future trends and priority recommendations: There training continue to have a high priority within the CG System. some shifts in emphasis in the long term correspondshould be, however, ing to the evolving roles of members in the global research system, with the national systems assuming more responsibility for applied research and the Centers moving into more strategic research. As the CG System's training efforts have progressed, some programs (mainly production courses) have been successfully transferred from the Centers to in-country locations where national institutions, have assumed responsibility for the courses. backstopped by the Centers, TAC encourages this process as an effective way to expand the impact of the Centers' training efforts and recommends that it be intensified in the future. 69 TAC advises that the Centers scale down the production and breeding courses at headquarters. Centers should concentrate, instead, on the training of trainers to work at the national level, and on the preparation of training materials. TAC recommends that the Centers also continue to offer at headquarters the short, highly focussed courses in research methods and specialfzed skills. In both of these areas, TAC encourages greater inter-Center cooperation which would result in enhanced cost efficiency. TAC considers that the mid-career upgrading study programs should continue at current levels and that the degreerelated programs be strengthened, primarily at the M.Sc. level. Finally,, TAC recommends that greater emphasis training of women, in both professional and technical means of ensuring that their concerns are more fully in agricultural research and technology generation. be placed on the capacities, as a taken into account (b) Institution building CG System focus: The needs and demands for CG System assistance In institution building are great - well beyond its capacity to respond. The most pressing needs come from the poorer and smaller countries, particularly in Africa, where research capacity must be strengthened if the current food problems are to be solved. The CG System's response to national institution-building needs, although modest in terms of resources (1.6% of the operating hudget), is broadly based. The Centers have all played important roles in institutional development in national research systems. Their assistance has included: the organization of research networks, the provision of consulting services, and the facilitation of linkages between national The impact of these efforts systems and specialized research centers. has been somewhat uneven, however, as it has been limited to the context of specific commodities. For almost five years, the Centers' efforts have been complemented by those of the lead Center ISNAR which provide, on a country-bycountry basis, a comprehensive, integrated and systematic approach to It is also strengthening national agricultutal research systems. developing an integrated knowledge base on research organization and management. The impact of this approach has noti yet been systematically evaluated, but its utility has been demonstrated by the number of deDemands, in fact, mands for assistance received from national systems. With its limited resource base, the outrun the capacity to respond. lead Center plays an essentially catalytic role, focussing on the diagIts objective is to nosis and analysis of institutional constraints. help national systems help themselves in cooperation with other Centers and with multilateral and bilateral development assistance agencies. TAC considers that Future trends and priority recommendations: institutional weaknesses will continue to be a major limitation to technology generation and adoption in the national systems of many Therefore, TAC recontmerids this countries in the short to medium term. as a high priority Area for the CG System in the future. 7,o TAC considers that the essentially catalytic role of the System in institution building is highly appropriate for the challenges ahead. TAC recommends that the System continue to play a lead role in developing closer linkages and more effectfve collaboration between national systems, the Centers, and external sources of expertise and funding, such as the multilateral and bilateral development assistance agencies. Experience has shown that innovative approaches to institution building on a comprehensive country-by-country basis will be necessary for strengthening agricultural research in the poorer countries. Researchsupport groups for indfvidual countries or a separate consultative group for national agricultural research are examples of the types of new approaches that should be considered. TAC believes that the CG System should play a leading role in stimulating and organizing such efforts. In the long term, TAC expects that the appropriate mechanisms linking national research systems among themselves and with donor agencies will be increasingly in place. The System should then expand its research on institution building and assume a more pronounced catalytic role in stimulating the generation and application of knowledge and expertise in research organization and management among natlonal systems. (cl Conferences. seminars and workshops Through the organization of conferences, seminars and workshops, the Centers provide a forum for sc*ientifi c discussion and the exchange of information on strategic issues and concerns in international agricultural research and development. These activities contribute to national research capacities by promoting scientific communication and cooperation among the various partners of the global research efEort and TAC considers by stimulating the horizontal transfer of technology. that the CG System should continue to provide this service to the international research community. Cd) Documentation and library services Traditional sources of the printed word, increasingly augmented also provide crucial access to the global knowledge base, by computers, especially for national researchers working in isolated conditions. Centers are direct sources of information on their own commodities and Their multilingual newsletters, maintain good reference libraries. and abstracting services provide valuable research support publications, TAC considers that these efEorts to scientists in developing countries. play an important role in strengthening national research capacities and should be maintained. Imnllcatlons for Future Resource Allocation Currently, 18% of the System's resources are used for this However, since strong national research capacities program approach. are essential to increasing sustainable food production in developing countries, TAC recommends that, in the short to medium term, it receive In the long term a higher share of the CG System's resources. the share should decrease to 15%, in accordance with (25 years), national systems' growing self-reliance. 71 Among the components within the approach, TAC recommends that training continue in the short to medium term to be funded at the present level. In the long term, allocations will decline as national institutions take over more traj.nLng programs. Institution building should receive a moderate increase in the short to medium term to more completely meet the demands of the national systems for assistance. Again, it is expected that the payoff from these efforts will allow funding to return to the current modest levels in the long term. Funds allocated to documentation and conferences should be sustained at approximately current levels. 4.2.8. integrate members cess in Integtation of efforts The aim of this program approach is to harmonize objectives and activities both within the CG System and in relation to other of the global system. This fs an important condition for sucany system as complex as the CGXAR. of the CG System derives from four structural The complexity characteristics: its central’ goal, which incorporates eight objectives: its program complementary heterogeneous structure, program activities comprising eight approaches, which and programs; distinct, yet are made up of - its operational autonomous and its collaborative of partners in structure, independently characterized by managed Centers; 13 largely and group - the relationships with global system. a heterogeneous With this degree of system complexity, strong integrating and coordinating mechanisms are necessary at all levels to ensure a high degree of effectiveness, efficient use of resources, and relevance of programs. CG System's Approach to Integration of Efforts and Future Priorities Although many of the approach are not immediately they constitute the CG System, organization and its larger (4 activities and efforts involved in this apparent when examining the structure of an important aspect of its internal role in international agricultural research. Integration at the global level The CG System is only one member of a complex global network of organizations dedicated to international agricultural research and development. At this level, therefore, the objective of the program approach is to coordinate the CG System’s efforts with those of the other members : national research systems, specialized institutions, universities, and development agencies in the private and public sectors. 72 As discussed in Chapter 3, the System's service function to national systems is complicated by their widely varying capacities. Numerous types of collaborative relationships are required to adequately meet their divergent needs and demands and to ensure that feedback from national systems is channelled back to the Centers. In the future, TAC expects that the CG System will. have a stronger service function to natioIla1 systems. offer Network arrangements among various national systems and Centers as well as the joint planning and execution of research programs will increase as national systems build up their capacities and increasingly take the lead in technology generation. Collaboration with specialized institutions, particularly on the basis of contractual relationships, is also expected to continue to expand, especially in the areas of strategic and basic research. The Centers will take on a larger catalytic role in the future in linking national research systems directly with specialized institutions. This will be particularly important with respect to location-specific research related to genotype/environment.interactions. Development assistance agencies are expected to play an increasingly important role in the buildup of national research system capacities and the diffusion of improved technology. Here too, the CG System can play the role of catalyst in bringing partners together and coordinating efforts. (b) Integration at the CGIAR level The CG System strives, largely through TAC, to coordinate and balance activities among the 13 largely independent Centers, so that duplication of effort is avoided and the optimal use of resources for Most of the inter-Center collaboration occurs maximum impact promoted. in the area of technical programs. There are several cases in which Centers divide responsibility for commodity research, and considerably more in which they work together in the joint implementation of technical programs. There are also mechanisms in the CG System to improve collaboration in analytic areas and, more importantly, to avoid duplication or confusion of efforts at the country level. These mechanisms include inter-center consultations, conferences, workshops, seminars, and meetings of Center Directors. TAC expects that the opportunities of labour among Centers will increase emphasis to more strategicresearch. organized efficiently and cost-effectively responsibility in a specifi c area and sharing the facilities as aproptiate. should also strengthen their cooperation management, and information dissemination.. for cooperation and division further with the eventual shift in Such division of labour can be with one Center assuming lead other Centers cooperating or TAC considers that the Centers in training programs, data-base (cl Integration in program,structure The object of the framework developed by TAC is to maximize the total impact of the System by ensuring that the eight program approaches The approaches are complemove in concert towards the System's goal. mentary, and coordination among them strengthens the impact of each one. 7-3 The results of research on policy and institutional constraints can help create a national environment more favourable for the adoption of improved agricultural technologies. Research with a farming systems perspective, which integrates livestock and crop productivity research with resource management research, for example, is likely to increase the sustainable productivity of the whole farm. Similarly, commodity improvement programs integrate equity, post-harvest, and environmental. concerns. Socia science research plays a key integrating role within Centers by channelling feedback from national systems and the eventual users of technologies to the commodity scientists. It also plays an important catalytic role in focussing attention on important social, economic and political issues which affect agricultural development and need to be more adequately addressed in research. Social science research helps to ensure that the research ,priorities and programs in the Centers, and the technologies produced, are relevant to the needs and capacities of the eventual users, whether producers or consumers. Strong social science programs at the Centers, moreover, provide a model for national research systems. Sound social science programs at which provide the primary the level of adaptive and applied research, means of integrating the perspectives of technology users, are critical Strong Center programs to the success of the entire research process. should contribute to the social sciences receiving a higher priority in it can be easily argued, they are most needed. national systems where, The integration levels in the research past successes of the and must be maintained concerns and activities at various of objectives, process is a major factor contributing to the CG System in developing component technologies, in the future. the country level (d) Integration at The object of integration of efforts at this level is to ensure that technology generated by the Centers conforms to the needs of the client national systems and is integrated effectively into national The mechanisms to accomplish this technology generation and adaptation. include networking, joint planning and design of research projects, and the participation of leading decentralized research programs, scientists from developing countries on Center Boards. Summary of Future Trends and Priorities TAC considers that the need for integrating and coordinating activities in the CG System will increase further as the number of actors in the global system continues to grow, as the diversity in the capacities among national research systems increases, and as the opportunities. for inter-center cooperation expand with the gradual shift in In many important areas of internaemphasis to strategic research. the CG System will assume tional agricultural research and development, a catalytic role of bringing potential partners together, enhancing information flow, and mobilizing effort on important research concerns. assume a higher priority within Integration of efforts will, therefore, the System in the future. 74 he highly flexibility promoted TAC stresses, however, that while coordination of activities can beneficial, Ct can also be costly and impede creativity and when poorly conceived. Cooperative arrangements should he only when they have clear advantages for all parties concerned. Implications for Future Resource Allocation The strengthening of the CG System's integrating and coordinating mechanisms recommended by TAC will require an increase in the resources allocated to these efforts. is difficult to quanThe amount, however, tify since, under current budgetary arrangements, it is impossible to separate out clearly the funds used for the efforts which comprise this program approach. TAC has estimated the current share of the budget as roughly 0.5X, but thLs relates primarily to the global level of integration (see Technical Annex, Part 4). Given the nature of the evolution of the global system projected for the future, TAC recommends an increase in funding for this approach to approximately 2% in the long term. 4.2.9. Evolution of the CG System's program structure The review of the program structure and assessment of priorities in and among program approaches confirms the viability of the CG System's multidimensional approach to meeting world food needs in the future. The multidisciplinary commodity approach is reaffirmed as the primary research thrust, complemented by efforts in policy research, the strengthening of national capacities, and cooperative endeavours with other members of the global system. Overall, the program structure should look much the same in the long term. This should not be interpreted, however, as maintenance of the status quo. Through its assessment of priorities for the future, TAC recommendS several important shifts in emphasis within the structure. These can best be suminarized in terms of the changes TAC has recommended for the distribution of CG.System resources among the eight as illustrated graphically in program approaches for the long term, Figure III. This recommendation does not imply a weakening of the commodity approach to research, but rather a broadening to incorporate more fully the collateral concerns of resource management and conservation, commodFurtherand human nutrition linkages. ity conversion and utilization, more, it reflects TAC's expectation of a growing division of labour between the CG System and its primary partners in research, the national systems. The national systems should be taking the lead role in generating technology and the CG System should respond by assuming more of a TAC considers that the service function, as described in Chapter 3. enhanced division of labour and the System's general move upstream in the research process will be of critical importance for achieving scientific breakthroughs on those crops and environments with short research histories. 75 4.3. Commodity Priorities Since commodity improvement programs constitute the primary research thrust within the CG System (i.e. about 70% of the System's total resources), they represent the logical units of analysis for more detailed priority assessment. Commodity improvement programs span several program approaches, e.g. crop productivity research, livestock productivity research, commodity conversion and utilization research, analysis of human nutrition linkages, and part of the resource management and conservation research. TAC's priority recommendations were made within this context. In the following sections, the relative priorities among and within the four major food commodity groups on which the CG System works are analyzed using a comprehensive set of priority indicators to strusture the assessment. Presented are TAC's recommendations on the relative priority and resource allocation for each commodity for the short to medium term (5-10 years). A more exhaustive analysis of the relative priorities of individual commodities is given in Part 3 of the Technical Annex. A summary of the recommendations for resource allocation by commodity group and individual commodity is given in Table III and presented graphically in Figure IV. The distribution of total commodity improvement efforts by main commodity groups (Annex Tables 5 and 6) shows that the main thrust goes to cereals (51%). Roots, tubers and starchy foods: food legumes; and livestock products have about equal shares in the other 49%. Livestock research includes roughly 6% devoted to the research on ruminant diseases, with ruminant production research receiving 13%. The commodities covered by CGIAR programs currently account for about 75% of total calorie and protein consumption in developing countries (Annex Tables 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11). In the process of setting priorities for individual commodities, TAC has not ignored the implications of its recommendations for each of these implications will require further analysis the Centers. However, and consultation with the Centers. The resulting dialogue should pave the way for implementing the priority decisions of the CGIAR in a gradual, but effective manner without disruptive effects for the Centers concerned. TAC hopes that this dialogue is held in a constructive, forward-looking atmosphere and that it include, within a broader framework, considerations for further improvements in the division of labour among the Centers of the System (see Chapter 5). 4.3.1. The analytical framework: The use of indicators To facilitate the complex task of priority setting and formulating recommendations for allocating resources, TAC has employed an analytical approach based on the use of priority indicators. The indicators should be thought of as analytic tools to structure informed judgement. They represent the most important elements for consideration in the process of establishing p~iorities~ The priority indicators deliberation. The number of selected indicators by TAC,'are the result employed reflects the of careful complexity Table 111. Allocation of CGIAR Resources by Commodity: Ctlrrent and Recommended (Million US Dollars) Actual 1983 -1/ allocation in TAC recommendations for under assumption of: (A) Constant funding at levels in real terms million 43.2 17.0 6.7 9.5 4.0 4.5 1.5 16.4 6.4 5.0 2.5 1.5 1.0 14.3 1.5 3.1 2.8 3.9 1.5 1.5 19.0 13.5 5.5 US$ % Sh.4 18.3 7.2 10.2 4.3 4.8 1.6 17.7 6.9 5.4 2.1 I .6 1.1 15.4 ‘1 .6 3.3 3.1 4.2 1.6 1.6 20.5 14.5 6.0 short1983 to medium-term (8) allocation in real % 41.1 14.6 6.7 9.0 4.3 5.2 1.3 18.4 5.5 4.3 4.3 2.6 1.7 17.2 1.7 3.0 3.5 :’ 3.4 3.0 2.6 17.2 12.5 4.7 2.2 1.7 2.2 100 total terms 25% increase funding in CS$ million 1. Cereals rice wheat maize sorghum millet barley 2. Roots, tubers and starchy foods 47.6 23.6 7.6 8.5 3.2 3.0 1.7 13.2 6.4 5.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.7 14.4 1.4 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.8 3.9 0.8 0.8 17.7 production disease vegetables 12.2 5.5 US$ % 51.2 25.4 8.2 9.2 3.4 3.2 1.8 14.2 6.9 5.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.8 15.6 1.5 3.3 2.5 1.4 0.9 4.2 0.9 0.9 19.0 13.0 6.0 million 47.8 17.0 7.8 10.5 5.0 6.0 1.5 21.4 614 5.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 19.9 2.0 3.5 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.0 20.0 14.5. 5.5 2.5 2.0 2.5 cassava potato sweet potato yam cocoyam starchy banana 3. Food legumes chickpea cowpea faba bean groundnut lentil phaseolus bean pigeon pea soybean 4. Livestock ruminant ruminant 5. 6. 7. Tropical Coconut Aquaculture , 92.9 100 92.9 100 116.1 l/ Core and special project funds allocated to commodity research (see notes Annex 4) Figure IV. Allocation of CGIAR (for Resources to Commodities: terms in Current million US$I (1983) and Recommended short 'co medium Actual (1983) Note: Scenario at A) 1983 A assumes levels in constant real terms. in funding Recommended (Scenario Recommended cl (Scenario B)- Scenario total 0 assumes funding in a 25% increase real terms. 78 of priority assessment in the CG System. They are multidimensional and complementary. Some lend themselves to quantitative analysis while others are of a more qualitative nature. Each indicator has strengths and weaknesses and the relative weight attached to each has been a matter of judgement. Standing alone, none would be adequate as a basis for priority assessment. When united, however, they provide a comprehensive basis for relating the commodity research effort under consicieration to the CGIAR goal and, thus, the means for rational decision making in priority assessment. They are organized into three broad categories: relevance, productivity, and efficiency. Table IV provides a summary by category of all the indicators used in the priority assessment of commodity improvement programs. Due to the complexity of the approach, a detailed description of each indicator and its utilrty to priority assessment within the context of the CGIAR is presented in Part 2 of the Technical Annex. The relevance indicators help in evaluating the importance of a commodity in terms of its present and potential contribution to food production for low-income people in developing countries in both absolute terms and in relation to other commodities. Relevance is assessed from four distinct, yet complementary points of view: the importance of the commodity in the diet (Annex Tables 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11); the importance of the commodity in the production system (Annex the relevance of the commodity to Tables 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16): specific target groups (Annex Table 17); and the relevance of the commodity to the goals of food security and self-sufficiency (Annex Tables 3, 4, 18, 19, 20 and 21). The productivity indicators are used recognizing that commodity They help to shares have little to do with research possibilities. evaluate the potential of research to improve the designated commodity. Since research is the primary means by which the CG System attains its the assessment of the potential productivity of that research must goal, be a fundamental concern in priority ranking. TAC has designated five basic areas for consideration in making this assessment: researchability: research opportunities (Annex Tables 22 and 23); research history; the potential for breakthrough; and the time frame for results. The final set of indicators relates to efficiency considerations. They help to decide if the CG System is the logical and most efficient member of the global research system to undertake the commodity research Four basic and the scale and nature of the operations it should pursue. the international character of the commodareas for consideration are: the comparative advantage of the CG System to ity or research problem; the degree of involvement or complementary activiconduct the research; ties of other members of the global system; and the cost-effectiveness of the research venture. Two axes of analysis are applied to the indicators. First, both For the quantiglobal and regional levels of analysis are employed. the'statistical information from 90 developing tative indicators, countries has been disaggregated into 12 regional groupings, distinguished primarily on the basis of agroecological characteristics (Annex These figures reveal the relative importance of commodities Table 1). in each region as well as the weight of each region in terms of the . Table Relevance of contribution to CGIAR goal of the commodity in the diet IV. Indicators for Priority Assessment Research in Commodity Review CATEGORY III: International or research Efficiency of CG System in undertaking research character problem of the commodity CATEGORY I: Importance CATEGORY II: Researchability productivity - calorie contribution - protein contribution - additional nutritional aspects (fats, vitamins, minerals, etc.) - utilization aspects (storage, transportability, conversion, etc.) Importance system of the commodity in the production in global/ feed, energy, - evidence that progress in production or productivity of a commodity is constrained by lack of knowledge and/or technology Research opportunities - the need for a supra-national research effort - the transferability of the potential technology across regions, national boundaries and cultural areas Comparative with respect comdity advantage of the CG System to research on the - value of production (share regional production) - contribution to sustainability - multiple purposes (livestock by-products) - area harvested - agroecological suitability - extent of genetic diversity - yield levels, yield trends and potential gains - yield stability and defense of achieved gains - potential agroecological amplitude - unexploited areas for research - scope of.application of potential results - estimated returns to proposed research Research history base Relevance to target groups - current knowledge - past gains/failures Potential for 7 need for a concentrated incerdisciplinary research thrust - need for research at the strategic or applied levels - need for continuity and stability of effort - need for access to characterized germplasm Complementarity of efforts members of global system with other - income/employment generation - nutritional factors Future trends in demand availability breakthrough - self-sufficiency - food security (macro-level) (micro-level) - technologies in the pipeline - emerging knowledge from basic research - strength of national research systems - activities of other :agencies research organizations - linkages with basic rexarc;> institutions - potential for institutional cooperation/collaboration Cost effectiveness and :::‘ . : : ‘. Time frame - current resource allocation within the CG System - level of resources allocated commodity research by others - returns to past investment - expected payoff to same or increased efforts to 80 global situation. Since there is no mechanism in the CGIAR to channel funds directly to regions, these indicators assist the CGIAR in ensuring an adequate coverage of regional needs through the choice of commodities and the amount of resources allocated to them. Second, the analysis is dynamic, incorporating the present as well as past and projected future trends. Priorities have to be established within the present context, but, ideally, also in terms of projections for future needs, opportunities and constraints. The projections of future trends for which quantitative data are provided in this review are based on FAO's AT 2000 global model. It must be remembered, however, that extrapolation from past trends can only guide us in our estimation of future needs. Future projections are especially difficult in research, given the serendipitous nature of the enterprise. They should, therefore, be subject to frequent reappraisal based on new information and informed iudgement. The data on the distribution of resources within the CG System are based on the 1983 total operating expenditures, including core and special project funds. Although commodity improvement programs encomdue to the way that the resource data pass several program approaches, available to TAG were structured, the analysis of current and future resource allocations by commodity could be accomplished only by disaggregating the program approaches of crop and livestock productivity The CG System's allocation of research (see Technical Annex, Part 4 A). resources by commodity for 1983 are presented in Annex Tables 5 and 6. For the quantitative indicators, TAC drew on the wealth of statistical information available from FAO and the Centers. The base Past trends are constructed data presented are for the years 1979/81. Projected trends from 1980 to 2000 using data from 1969/71 and 1979/81. using Scenario B of modest are based on FAO's AT 2000 global model, Notes on improvement over the current situation, plus data from China. the data base are presented in the Technical Annex, Part 4 B, and all of the quantitative data used for the indicators are presented in tabular form in Part 5 of the Technical Annex. In its review, TAC recommends changes in funding, based on real dollar amounts as well as in percentages (Table III, Figure IV). Real dollar amounts are used as an instrument to indicate orders of magnitude They should not be interpreted as and recommended shifts in funding. precise recommendations of funding levels. for resource As was discussed in Chapter 1, TAC's recommendations allocations to commodity research were made under two distinct funding 'scenarios. The first is conservative and assumes no real increase in The second is an optimistic scenario of a 25% funding to the CG System. real increase in funding. 4.3.2. Cereals Over half of Cereals are the stuff of life to human populations. to growing them. the world's arable lands - 1.4 billion ha - are devoted In developing countries, cereals directly contribute 60% of total Indirectly, caloric intake and more than half of the protein consumed. 81 as animal feed, they make a further contribution to the human diet when converted into meat, milk, eggs and other animal products. Of the cereals, rice and wheat make the largest contri.bution (in terms of both calories and protein) to the diet in developing countries. Cereals account for 60% of the total harvested area and 30% of the value of production in developing countries. Their share of the value of production is higher than that of any other commodFty group, including livestock. Rice, the primary source of sustenance for people living in tropical regions, is the most widely grown cereal in developing countries. It is produced mainly in Asia. It accounts for almost half of all cereal production and 20% of the value of production in developing countries. The next in importance in developing-country regions are wheat and maize, whfch each account for approximately 20% of cereal productton. Wheat is well adapted to harsher environments and is grown largely in the natural prairies of the cooler zones of India, China .and the North Africa/Near East regions. Maize, which performs best in warm moist climates, is an important staple food in Central and South Amerfca and Sub-Saharan Africa, but 40% of the production of developing-country regions comes from China. The other cereals supported by the CG System are barley, sorghum and millet. Together they account for about 8% of developing-country cereal production, but they are all very important in particular regions. Barley is most important in North AErica/Near East, where it is used primarily as a feed crop and is inseparable from the production of sheep and goats. Sorghum and millet are grown most extensively in the semi-arid tropics, where they are the staple foods for millions of poor people in drought-prone high-risk areas. The annual growth in consumption of cereals in developing-country regions increased faster than population growth in the 197Os, with that of rice and wheat highest at 4.4% and 5.6%, respectively.' Projected trends indicate that cereals will continue to be in high demand in the future. Increase in demand for rice is likely to parallel population growth in most of the developing world except for Africa, where demand far.exceeds population growth. While Asia has achieved marginal selfsuffi.ciency in rice, continued increases through higher yields or increased cropping intensity will be necessary to keep production in step with population growth. The demand for wheat wheat imports doubled in the was a major constraint. The Wheat consumption is closely and it tends to be substituted it is the world's most widely global production, national concern. strong in developing-country regions: foreign exchange 19709, even when limited demand is projected to increase steadily. linked to rising incomes and urbanization However, since for other staple foods. traded commodity and there is a surplus self-sufficiency is not always a primary is in Surprisingly, in the light of their lower consumption levels, the future demand for the other cereals - maize, sorghum, millet and barley - is projected to be even stronger than that for wheat and rice, due to their dual uses as food and feed crops. The demand for animal products associated with increased income will stimulate the need for feed. 82 Maize, sorghum and barley will be the main cereal commodities used as animal feed as intensification of animal production takes place. They will, .thus, be important in the future, not only as food crops for subsistence farmers, but also as cash crops. Due to the importance of cereals as staple foods in the diet of the people of developing-country regions, research to increase cereal production has been a central thrust of the CG System since its inception. Because The first Centers concentrated on rice, wheat and maize. these crops, particularly rice and wheat, already had a long research history and there was a good knowledge base on which to build, research successes - In the form of the high-yielding varieties and associated technological packages - were remarkable, and their development quite rapid. Today, nearly one half oE the wheat area and 60% of the rice For the area in developing countries is planted with modern varieties. average farmer, modern varieties in wheat and rice result in a 400-500 kg/ha increase in yield. Barley, sorghum and millet were later added to the CG System with the expectation that the successes of wheat and rice could be repeated. Results have, however, been slower and less spectacular. These cereals are grown under dry, and often extreme conditions. In addition, with the possible exception of barley, they had a much shorter research there was a more limited knowledge base upon which to history and, thus, build. Nevertheless, the potential for positive'research results in the During only 10 years of research in the future appears very promising. CG System, considerable improvement in the productive capacity of these cereals has been achieved and there are excellent developments in the pipeline. Continued effort is needed to ensure impact and improve and stabilize production. In 1983, cereals received 51% of the total allocation to commodiRice research received 25.4% ty productivity research in the CG System. maize and wheat following at 9.2% and - by far the largest share - with 8.5X, respectively. TAC considers that cereals should continue to have ThiS the highest priority of the commodity groups in the CG System. reflects their preeminent role as staple foods, their large contribution to the value of production in developing countries, and the strong TAC believes that research on cereals indications for future demand. should be supported at current levels in order to meet future needs most in the case of a no-growth funding situation, TAC effectively. However, would recommend that the allocation to cereals be moderately decreased TAC conin order to strengthen research on other commodity groups. siders this shift in resources feasible, although not ideal (Table III, Figure IV). Within the cereals, TAC recommends some important shifts priorities and funding levels to strengthen those cereals.that benefitted less from past research. These recommendations are summarized below. in have TAC recommends a gradual decrease With respect to rice and wheat, This decision reflects both the in funding beginning in the near term. significant progress that has already been made in rice and wheat research and the strengthened research capacities that have been built up in the national systems of those developing countries that are the 83 major producers of rice and wheat. Due to the strength of these research and extension programs, the transfer from the CG System of many responsibilities Ear adaptive and applied research functions is already well under way. The CG System IS, in turn, moving towards more strategic research in colLaboration with specialized research institutions. The CGIAR currently allocates nearly a quarter of its commodity research resources to rice, nearly triple that to any other crop. It is the judgement of TAC that some resource reallocation is appropriate within the CGIAR, given other commodity needs Listed below, the strengthening of national programs in rice, and marginal rice self’ sufficiency in Asia. Further, more than 30% of CG System’s allocation to rice research goes to Sub-Saharan Africa. Research efforts to date in this region have been diffuse and have not had the anticipated payoff. Thus a r&-rowing oE the focus to those areas that demonstrate promise of success and a reinforcing of research on upland rice is appropriate. TAC considers that this can be done by allocating fewer resources to, Sub-Saharan Africa while leaving the relative allocation to other regions the same. TAC recommends a shift in research emphasis for rice so that the CG System devotes more effort towards improving’nonirrigated systems. These systems comprise almost half of the global area under rice production: the production constraints are more complex due to the lack of control over water:. and they have received limited attention in the past. In assessing the System’s future role in wheat research, TAC has taken into account the importance of wheat as a food crop and the increasing reliance of developing countries on food imports. But, it has also considered the strong research programs on wheat in developed countries and the increasingly strong research capacities of national programs in Temperate South America, Turkey, India and China, as demonstrated by the remarkable yield and production increases achieved a well organized international wheat trade, during the 1970s. Moreover, and increasing demand for wheat by developing-country export capacity, countries with unfavourable environments for its production, make the The role of concept of self-sufficiency inappropriate for many areas. the CG System should be to provide continued support for production in TAC recommends areas where there are distinct research opportunities. that greater attention be paid to increasing production in marginal lands, including tropical areas traditionally marginal for wheat but where demand for wheat is high. TAC recommends a strengthening in support of research on maize, All sorghum and millet in order to enhance their impact potential. All are intethree cereals are important as both food and feed crops. gral to the food and production systems of Sub-Saharan Africa, a region All are important where food shortages have become a chronic problem. in rainfed agriculture, an area of high.priority for the CG System. And, with the growth in demand for their use in livestock feeds, all are expected to increase in importance as cash crops on small farms. Except for China and Temperate South America, the maize in developing countries are low and, to date, only TAC, however, believes that increase has been achieved. potential for breakthrough and has recommended an increase TAC also at least 10% in order to accelerate progress. yields for a moderate there is a high in funding of recommends a 84 shift in actually research emphasis declined, systems to Africa, technologies are weak. where maize yields have are urgently needed, stagnated or and national Sorghum and millet are important staple food crops in the semiarid regions, particularly of India and Africa. They are often grown in drought-prone regions where no alternative food crops are possible. TAC recommends increased funding to these two commodities,'with a greater concentration of CG System effort in Africa, where research needs and opportunities are greatest. Both.crops have a short research history and suffer from similar production constraints which need to be more fully addressed through research. Striga weed infestation, in particular, is a major problem. Between the two, TAC accords a higher priority to millet. Millet is the only cereal crop that can be grown in the driest areas of the semi-arid tropics. It is, thus, fundamental to the sustenance of poor people in those zones. Also, in the areas with somewhat higher rainfall where sorghum can also be grown, millet competes well against sorghum in terms of productivity. Finally, in areas whe’re sorghum competed with maize, its high vulnerability to damage from birds is a serious production constraint not easily addressed through research. Barley has had the lowest resource allocation of the cereals within the CG System. In developing countries, barley is used primarily as an animal feed and for making malt. Little goes to direct human consumption. It, thus, does not have the same role as a maior staple food for humans as do the other cereals. In view of this and the fact that most of the barley production of developing countries is concentrated in one region - North Africa/ Near East - TAC recommends a slight reduction in resources allocated to ,research. However, in recognition of the integral role barley has to livestock production systems in North Africa/Near East, and consistent with its recommendation to increase efforts directed towards small ruminants, TAC recommends a strengthening of research in this region through consolidati,on and the phasing out of programs in other areas. 4.3.3. Roots, tubers and starchy foods. cassava, potato, sweet Included in this commodity group are: For convenience, the general potato, yam, cocoyam and starchy hanana. term of root crops is often used in this discussion to refer both to This commodity group is true roots (cassava) and to tubers and corms. Sweet most important in humid tropical and semi-tropical regions. potato has a wider range and is grown in temperate regions as well. Potato, at one time thought of as a crop of temperate regions and high has also proved adaptable to a wide range of elevations in the tropics, environments. On an aggregate developing-country level, this commodity group It should be 9% of the calories in the diet. contributes approximately noted that data on production and consumption of roots, tubers and starchy foods are hard to collect and, for the most part, are based on subjective judgements of the areas and yields of crops grown in small, Figures should, therefore, be isolated, and irregularly shaped plots. treated as approximations.. 85 The global data obscure the group’s regional importance in the humid tropics, where cassava, sweet potato, yam, starchy ,banana, and to a much smaller extent cocoyam, are staple foods. In Sub-Saharan Africa., the calorie contribution of this commodity group to the regional diet ranges from 21% in Semi-Arid West Africa to 46% in Equatorial Africa. Root crops are also very important to’the diet in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands. The protein content and quality of these commodities are variable ; that of yam and potato is highest (approximately 2.1% on a fresh weight basis). On the aggregate level of developing-country regions, the protein contribution of the group to the diet (corrected by aminoacid content) is only 2.7X, primarily provided by potato and sweet potato. Again in Africa, however, the contribution - provided largely by yam and cassava - is much higher. It ranges from 5.9% in East/South Africa to 15.9% in Humid West Africa. Two points should be noted about the protein contribution of this commmodity group. First, the available figures do not incorporate the protein contribution from the leaves of some of the crops, which are Secondeaten as green vegetables in many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. ly, the amino-acid content of roots and tubers, unlike most cereals, is not complemented by that of legumes. Consequently, in order to have the roots and tubers must be supplemented complete protein in the diet, with a wide variety of other foods. tubers and starchy foods constitute 13% of the value of Roots, The share is highest in production in all developing-country regions. Sub-Saharan Africa. In Equatorial and Humid West Africa they account for slightly over one third of the regional value of production and in Semi-Arid West Africa, where yam is so important as a food and cash The share is also relatively high in China, due over one half. crop, primarily to sweet potato. China is the largest producer of root crops (mostly potato and sweet potato), accounting for slightly.under half of all production in One third of the harvested area of this commodity developing countries. but it contributes only about one fifth group is in Sub-Saharan Africa, Cassava is the dominant root of the production of developing countries. crop in Sub-Saharan Africa in terms of area harvested, but yields and the value of production are quite low. The commodities in this group are commonly grown by subsistence of ten under marginal conditions. farmers in mixed cropping systems, They have important niches in the production systems of the regions Cassava is grown on poor soils, it where they are grown extensively. Sweet can survive the dry season , and it can ‘be stored in the ground. potato is also quite tolerant of drought, demands little from the soil, Both are also and has the advantage of a short growing period. important as feed crops. Cocoyam can be grown only in the humid and sub-humid tropics, but it is important in the production systems of the forest zone of West Africa because it has low labour demands and is harvested at a time when also of the humid Starchy banana, there are relative food shortages. is favoured for its low labour demands. and sub-humid lowland tropics, 86 In Sub-Saharan Africa, roots and tubers have cereals: yields tend to be higher and costs calorie are lower than for cereals. several per unit advantages of produce over and per outsIde for its growing Potato cultivation has increased and extended into tropical areas comparatively recently. of Latin America only It is appreciated potential. as a high-yielding food and as a cash crop with a market in urban areas. Total production in roots and tubers in developing-country regions over the last decade increased by approximately 1.8% per annum, but there are important regional differences in trends. In Africa, North Africa/ Near East and Asia, root-crop production has increased markedly, while it has declined in Latin America, due largely to a decline in cassava production and consumption in Brazil. The increase in global production of potato has heen greater than for any other crop in the group, although in most countries it started from a low base. Looking to the Euture, the general trend appears to be one of increasing demand for this group of commodities, especially in Africa, North Africa/Near East and South-East Asia. In Latin America, growth in demand is expected to be sluggish, but future trends will be more clear when the results of a market study on cassava, coordinated by CTAT, are available. In all areas, potato production seems likely to continue to increase rapidly in response to strong consumer demand. There are several important shared constraints to production among the commodities in this group. All require improved post-harvest technologies. The crops are bulky to handle and transport, most are difficult to store, and all are subject to substantial post-harvest losses. Pests and diseases are also major production constraints for The high cost oE propotato, yam, cassava, cocoyam and sweet potato. duction, resulting largely from the fact that a substantial share of the harvest has to be set aside as planting material, is a signiFicant The potential Ear constraint for yam, potato and cocoyam production. well focussed research to address these constraints appears strong. In 1983, the CG System's allocation foods represented 14% of the total allocation research. TAC recommends that the allocation increased to about 18% and that some shifts (Table III, Figure IV). to roots, tubers and starchy to commodity productivity to this commodity group be in emphasis be instituted This recommendation is based on four primary considerations. First, most of the commodities in this group have a very important role in the diet and in the production systems of Africa, an area of significant need. These crops will continue to be major staples in the region and there are clear possibilities of deficits in production, especially Second, demand is expected to of yam and cassava in some countries. expand at a moderate rate and would be stimulated further if research were successful in lowering production costs, improving post-harvest and broadening the end use of the commodities for food and technologies, feed. Third, there seems to be a good potential for payoff from research, since most of the commodities have a relatively short research there is Finally, history and have responded well to research to date. a need for CG System involvement because the national research systems 87 are weak in many of the countries where these commodities are important, especially in,Sub-Saharan Africa: they will need support to carry out the necessary research. TAC recommends that Centers play'a primarily catalytic role in the post-harvest area and contract out research to specialized institutions,. Specific below: the 3. recommendations full review of for each individual is given commodities in the TechnicaL are ized Part summarAnnex, There is substantial variability in the importance of cassava, its,range of uses, and the strength of national agricultural research systems among the three continents. In Africa, it is a major food crop and consumption Is increasing., In Asia, there is a strong demand for cassava for food, but the most significant increase in demand comes from the international market owing to the fact that European market organi-. zations had created a competitive advantage of cassava over cereals as animal feed. Demand is declining in Latin America. TAC elects not to make a long-term recommendation on the resource allocation to cassava until the findings of the market study are available. It does, however, recommend that in the short term the current Level of funding be maintained. Efforts should continue to concentrate on Sub-Saharan Africa, with emphasis on post-harvest and processing technologies, as well as on‘ disease and pest control. Because of the growth in demand for potato in developing countries and the potential for future gains from research, TAC recommends that the present level of effort on potato be continued in the medium term. In the long term, in line with the recommendations of the lead efforts should be scaled down as responsibilities for research Center, are increasingly taken over by national programs. TAC recommends that the funding for research on yam be strengthened to attain a level adequate for near-term and effective impact. This recommendation is based on the importance of yam as both a food and cash crop in the densely populated regions of West Africa; and on the especially with respect to strong potential for research productivity, seed propagation and the development of varieties that do not require TAC advises that research efforts focus on lowering stakes for support. the costs of production in terms of labour inputs and planting materistorage on reducing pest and disease damage, and on alleviating als, The productivity of the strengthened research thrust on yam problems. should be evaluated after five years. TAC considers sweet potato to be a neglected crop in the CG The crop has System and that efforts should be increased significantly. a high potential for development for food and feed purposes in the humid New variewhere increased food production is urgently needed. tropics, Future ties from AVRDC have demonstrated high yield potentials. research should focus on the key production constraints of pests and diseases and post-harvest problems of poor storability. Cocoyam is a preferred food in the forest zone of West Africa In a global perspective, and in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands. however, it has limited distribution and economic importance, making it In view of the need for a‘ a low priority in the CG System context. 88 consolidation and concentration of efforts recommends that cocoyam be phased out of research program. within the the commodity System, TAC improvement Little research has been carried out on the starchy banana. Yet, source of calories in the humid and sub-humid tropit IS a significant ics and there is an upward trend in consumption. Being easy to prepare, it is a growing convenience food for both rural and urban consumers. Taking into account the research needs, the projected future gap between production and demand, and the recently established international research network INIBAP, TAC recommends that the System increase fts work on starchy banana and participate in the INIBAP network. The CG System effort should focus on germplasm evaluation and testing, on agronomic and cultural practices in the farming systems context, and on pest management. 4.3.4. Food legumes cover both pulses and oil-bearing CG System include the pulses bean, lentil and pigeon pea - and groundnut. The term food legume is used to The research programs of the legumes. chickpea, cowpea, faba bean, phaseolus the oil-bearing legumes of soybean and The food legumes constitute a vital component of the diet of the poor in developing countries. They provide a rich and relatively inexwhich complements that from pensive source of high-quality protein, The protein content varies among cereals for balanced human nutrition. species, but generally ranges from 20% to 35%. Legumes are especially important as supplements to cereal-based diets, especially in areas Those legume seeds, such where animal protein is scarce or expensive. as groundnut and soybean, which are also important sources of oil, contribute to the diets of all income strata. In many countries, the A common immature green seeds and pods are eaten as green vegetables. constraint to consumption of many food legumes is the length of time they require for processing and cooking and the associated cost of fuel consumption. On the aggregate level of developing-country regions, the protein contribution of food legumes to the diet is approximately 8X, following Regions with dietary contributions cereals and livestock in importance. Equatorial Africa (17X), India (10.9X), above the global average are: Semi-Arid West Africa (lo.]%), and Central America (8.3%). The calorie contribution on the aggregate level is about 4%. The legume species on Which the CG System works cover a wide Most are range of environments from arid regions to humid tropics. grown under rainfed conditions by subsistence farmers with poor resources. They have a valuable and multifaceted role in these production Perhaps most importantly, their systems, apart from their food value. capacities for symbiotic nitrogen fixation reduce the need for costly In fact, in many cases they produce nitrogen for the nitrogen inputs. benefit of crops planted in association or in subsequent rotation cycles. They are sometimes used as green manure and, where they form a quick ground cover on newly cleared land, they help prevent soil the residues often provide erosion. They also benefit livestock: 89 valuable fodder, constituents of and products animal feeds. from groundnut and soybean are important The numerous contributions that legumes make within production systems in many developing countries are not adequately captured by quantitative statistics. Production data on legumes are difficult to obtain because they are frequently grown in association with other crops in irregularly.shaped and isolated plots. A large quantity of the crop is often eaten green and is, thus, not recorded in harvested yields. Furthermore, the recorded yields often refer to a mixture of species, e.g. dry beans. Accepting these qualiEications, it is estimated that approximately 11% of the harvested land in developing countries is allocated to legumes, while the share contributed by legume crops to the value of production is estimated at 4.8%. In India, due to the importance of chickpea and groundnut, and in Tropical South America, due to soybean, the share of the value of production is considerably higher, reprcsenting more that 9%. The production of food legumes in these two regions accounts for almost half of the total legume production in the developing world. Research has concentrated far less on improving pulse yields than it has on cereal yields. Yields tend to be low and unstable. Serious losses are caused by diseases and pests which attack the crops both in the field and in storage. the developing-country producConsequently, tion of pulses as a group is estimated.to have increased only a meager 2% in the past decade, compared with a 30% increase in cereal production. On the other hand, the production increase in oil-bearing soybean was more than llO%, and that of groundnut was 4%. ConsumpFuture trends in consumption of pulses are not clear. However, tion is expected to at least keep pace with population growth. in some areas with largely vegetarian diets, such as India, consumption If current conlevels have .heen found to increase with income growth. sumption trends continue, production will have to increase at least 3.2% The rate of increase. in the per annum to meet demand by the year 2000. consumption of oil from soybean and groundnut is projected to be considerably higher. Most of the increase in production in food legumes will which will require greater have to be met through increased yields, attention to research on this group. TAG considers that maior efforts in the CG System should continue This recomto be directed towards the most important food legumes. mendation is based on TAC's perception of the continuing importance of food legumes in the diet of low-income people in developing countries, the important contribution of legumes to enhancing the sustainability of production systems, and the short research history of tropical food legumes. With the shift in emphasis to improving productivity in rainfed agriculture, legumes will play a vital role. TAC considers that with a consolidation of efforts to permit stronger and more focussed research, there is a good potential for positive results. Research should focus on developing improved varieties with higher yield potentials; reducing pest and disease problems which are limiting yields; and alleviating storage, processing, and foodpreparation constraints. 90 In 1983, allocations to food legumes within the CG System represented 16% of the total allocations to commodities. TAC recommends that funding remain at least at current levels in the future. Strengthening of research should be achieved through a reduction of the number of commodities worked on. This consolidation will allow the remaining research programs to attain the critical mass required for impact. Due to the high priority accorded to research on food legumes, TAC strongly encourages the mobilization of additional funds to strengthen further research within the consolidated Legume program (Table III, Figure IV). TAC advises that the funding to chickpea continue at present levels. This recommendation is based on two primary factors. Chickpea is an important crop in semi-arid environments and demand is expected to increase in both of the areas of major consumption: India, where it is the major pulse crop, and North Africa/Near East. Second, the success of recent research indicates a strong potentiaL for continued positive Because of the strength of the national programs in India, TAC results. advises that emphasis be shifted to the North Africa/Near East region. TAC also recommends that research on cowpea continue at approximately current levels. Cowpea is an important crop in the semi-arid and sub-humid regions of Africa, and its range is expanding in Latin America and Asia. It has a valuable role in production systems because it can it can nodulate with a wide range of Rhizobia grow in poor, acid soils, it can fit easily into diverse and, due to its short growing cycle, In the past decade, both the rate of increase in cropping systems. production and consumption have been significantly higher than the Finally, the potential for average for food legumes in aggregate. research results appears promising. Phaseolus bean is the third food legume for which TAC recommends It is most important as both a maintaining current levels of funding. where it supplements rice and maize food and cash crop in Latin America, Strong as a major source of protein in the diet of low-income people. demand is expected to continue and there is a need to continue research TAC endorses CIAT's to overcome significant production constraints. and advises that greater expanded research on phaseolus bean in Africa, attention be given to enhancing yield stability. TAC considers pigeon pea as one of the more favoured pulses and recommends a near doubling in funds to research from the current modest levels. An even greater increase is advised if more funds become availPigeon pea's primary advantage is its usefulable to the CG System. ness as a fuelwood, in addition to its important dietary contribution and utility within subsistence production systems in the semi-arid and sub-humid tropics. Demand is outstripping production, indicating the The need for a concerted research effort to increase production levels. crop's research history indicates that considerable progress could be TAC recommends that efforts be extended made with continued research. into West Africa and East/South Africa. In view of the need to consolidate the food Legumes, TAC recommends that the lentil and faba bean be phased out at the While TAC recognizes the positive results this the modest research program on lentil, the CG System's research among commodity research programs on end of the current programs. that have been achieved from recommendation is based on 91 the crop'slimited global importance and the fact that consumption is restricted largely to the North Africa/Near East region, where it is but one of several pulses. The situation for faba bean is similar; it IS not an important global commodity; China, which is the major producer, has a strong national program; and although faba bean is also important to the North Africa/Near East region, TAC believes that a more effective use of resources would be for research on improving chickpea or animal production. In both cases, caution will have to be exercised to ensure that incipient research results are not jeopardized. TAC considers that for both of the oil-bearing legumes - groundnut and soybean - funding should be substantially increased. It recommends a doubling of funding to both from their currently modest levels under a no-growth situation, and an even larger increase if more funds become available to the System. Consumption of both commodities is expected to increase substantially in view of the vigorous expansion in global demand for vegetable oils. Consequently, they are both valuable cash crops as well as food crops. With respect to groundnut, the potential for solving constraints to increased production is strong and results would have a wide impact. The recommendation for soybean is based on the interest and apparently good potential of the crop in SubSaharan Africa and Asia; the good research progress that has been made so far at IITA; and the promise of further advances with additional investment. 4.3.5. Livestock Livestock and their products provide about 25% of the total value of agricultural commodities produced in developing countries, 19% of the dietary protein consumed and 6% of the caloric intake. Animal products are preferred foods: as incomes rise, so does consumption. For examthey provide two thirds of the protein and ple, in developed countries, In addition to food products, liveone third of -the calories in diets. stock provide wool, hair, hides and skins. In farming systems, they utilize agricultural by-products and provide manure; and in many develcattle and buffalo are major sources of on-farm power. oping countries, In production systems based primarily on livestock, surplus cash from any increase in production is generally used for further developing the output of the whole farm. Since the CG System has to be highly selective in the allocation of its resources, it has concentrated on improving the productivity of sheep and cattle, the most important ruminants in developing countries: goats. Developing-country populations of cattle, sheep and goats acof the total world population count for 66X, 56% and 96X, respectively, Ruminants and their products contribute 8.9% of these livestock (1980). of the protein to the diets of people in the developing world, and 2.8% of the calories. Their share of the value of production is 12.7%. Ruminants have special importance in the conversion to food of resources that cannot be used directly for human consumption. production is an effective means of utilizing vast areas of grassland in regions where low and unreliable, or seasonal combined with poor, acid soils make crop production impractithey complement crop production by providing In farming systems, natural Ruminant natural rainfall cable. 92 and by utilizing by-products and wastes that otherwise would manure, have little value. Cattle also provide an important source of draught Ruminants serve as both food and cash commodities and are often power. used by farming households as a means of storing savings. Cattle are especially important in Latin America, the savanna areas of Africa, North Africa/Near East, and India (for milk). Sheep and goats are important in North Africa/Near East, East/South Africa, Semi-Arid West Africa and Temperate South America (sheep). Although small ruminants provide only a small amount of the global production of meat and milk, the aggregate data mask their importance to some regions. For example, it is estimated that they provide 30% of the meat consumed in North Africa/Near East and 20% of that consumed in Sub-Saharan In the 197Os, numbers of both cattle and sheep increased by 11% Africa. and those of goats by 15% - a trend that is likely to continue with the increasing demand for animal products in the future. TAC recognizes the importance of the domesticated buffalo in areas to which Lt is climatically adapted. However, since 85% are found in only five countries in Asia, TAC believes that the research needs of buffalo are best accommodated through regional efforts. TAC also recognizes the importance of swine and poultry, which provide half the monetary and nutritive contribution of livestock in developing countries. TAC does not, however, consider their research needs to be of sufficiently high priority, compared with those of the ruminants, to justify their inclusion at present among the System's Past trends have shown that as swine and poultry become aCtiVitieS. more intensive systems of production are adopted, and more important, that the technology is more readily transferable from developed to developing countries than it is for ruminants. There is a significant need for research to increase ruminant Yields of both meat and milk are production in developing countries. low compared with developed countries. Low productivity is due to a poor nutrition, limited availabiSity number of interacting constraints: of water in arid and semi-arid areas, poor management, and disease. In low productivity results from prosome regions, Africa in particular, ducers placing greater value on the number of cattle owned, rather than on increasing off-take or production of meat and milk, since they are used as a means for storing wealth for future expenditures (such as family illness or bride price) and as an insurance against drought or famine. A principal thrust of the CG System's research program on improving ruminant production is to enhance nutrition through improved management practices and the development of better pastures, forages, Poor nutrition is the major constraint to and other feed sources. cattle production in Latin America, North Africa/Near East, and in those areas of Africa where major ruminant diseases are not present. The second major research thrust is to control ruminant diseases, particularly the major diseases of theileriosis and trypanosomiasis, which are major constraints to production in a large part of Sub-Saharan the research is of a basic nature. Africa. As was discussed earlier, 93 The funding of research on ruminants is 19% of the total allocations to commodities in the CG System. Although this share is relatively large in terms of the monetary value of ruminant production and its current contribution to the diet in developing-country regions, it must be emphasized that almost one third of the allocation is directed to the long-term basic research on disease control, for which the potential payoff would be immense. TAC recommends that funding increased in the future, with the control remaining constant (Table to ruminant production allocation to research III, Figure IV). be moderately for disease TAC bases this recommendation on four primary considerations. The projected increase in demand for livestock products in the future is a clear indication of the need for research to increase production'and. productivity. Second, ruminants are of particular importance in the production and-food systems of the arid and semi-arid regions. Third, TAC considers that greater.attention has to be placed on increasing.the sustainable production of farming systems through improved integration of crop/livestock systems. Last, the problems affecting livestock production are very complex because they involve man.y different species and breeds, a broad range of production and management systems, and a wide array of products. TAC recommends that research continue to concentrate on improving ruminant nutrition. Rangeland and pasture improvement programs, together with the management of Livestock, should be strenthened consfderably.. TAC further recommends that special attention be given to small ruminants, especially in North Africa/Near East and Sub-Saharan Africa. In these regions, small ruminants are very important in the production systems of farmers with few resources, and have received little research attention in the past; the national systems are weak: and the demand projections for sheep and goat products up to the year 2000 indicate -that the gap between production and consumption is increasing faster than for other food commodities. 4.3.6. New ventures As pointed out earlier, the terms of reference of this priority review required that TAC evaluate activities/commodities not currently Employing the included in the System, as well as those already covered. same criteria and priority indicators that were used to assess ongoing activities, TAC examined a broad range of acti~iti~~/c~~~~diti~~ as These included those on which potential candidates for CGIAR support. TAC has made recommendations in the past, as well as new initiatives. food The general categories considered for increased research were: commodities, common factors of production; non-food cash crops, and multipurpose (food/feed) commodities. After a careful and deliberate examination of the range of possibilities, TAC concluded that as long as food issues continue to dominate the scene in world agriculture, research on the world's important food commodities should remain the primary focus of the It therefore ranked food commodities as the System's activities. highest priority for potential candidates for entry into the System in the event that funding to the System is increased. 94 TAC is convinced that with respect to needs, opportunities and research potentials, there is ample scope for additional productive investment in research on food commodities at the international Level. Critical research needs remain for food commodities already included in the System, and numerous programs are still seriously underfunded in relation to their priority ranking. Similarly, needs and opportunities exist for food commodities not currently covered by the CGIAR, which could be new ventures. Food crops, thus, should remaCn the CG System's top priority. TAC is aware of important research needs, potentials and opportunities regarding non-food cash crops and recognizes the contribution of these commoditCes to general economic: development through the generation of income and employment. TAC considers, however, that in v'iew of both the continued needs in food crop research and the CGTAR's resource situation, it should not embark on any new ventures beyond food commodities at the present time. TAC has, nevertheless, taken the concern for income and employment generation into account by recommending three new ventures to the CGIAR, which are not only important food commodities but are also important small-holder cash crops. Another key consideration which led to the selection of three new ventures in the food commodity sector was the issue of nutritional gaps and dietary balance, in particular, the lack of sufficient attention in food commodity research to the need for vitamins, minerals and fats in the diets of low-income people, as well as to the need for expanded sources of low-cost protein of high quality. TAC's recommended new ventures address both of these major concerns. In order of priority, the three commodity groups recommended are: tropical vegetables; vegetable oils, in particular coconut; and aquaculture. TAC recommends that,the CG System give serious consideration to incorporating these new ventures into the System, provided addftional resources can be raised to meet the optimistic funding scenario. Of the three, TAC accords highest priority to tropical vegerich in vitamins and minerals, are important tables. Vegetables, supplements to staple foods. They also contribute approximately 3.1% of Although a preferred food the protein consumed in developing countries. vegetable consumption increases with rising among all income groups, The consumption The'demand is strong. income levels and urbanization. of vegetables expanded at a rapid rate during the 1970s (3.3% per annum) Research on vegetables and similar rates are projected for the future. in national systems is limited and there is a clear'ly identified need Of primary concern is the need to extend the production for research. periods and storage capacities of vegetables'in order to minimize which are regarded as a primary constraint to seasonal market gluts, increased production. TAC notes that AVRDC has already made significant advances in the improvement of certain vegetable crops in AsFa and recommends that it be closely associated with the recommended CGIAR efforts to develop a which would involve other In such efforts, vegetable research program. AVRDC should play an important Institutions, particularly outside Asfa, role. 95 A key issue in developing a plan for CGIAR action in this field is the choice of species for inclusion. These should be relevant to the specific regions and their consumers, lend themselves to research on an international scale, and offer opportunities for payoff. In the light of resource and impact considerations, TAC recommends that CGIAR support be clearly focussed and limited initially to approximately six species. Among the ones to be considered are Amaranthus sp., Capsicum -- sp., Celosia argenta, okra, onion and tomato. -Other important considerations in establishing a plan of action relate to the integration of this new initiative with the System's current efEorts on commodities which either are vegetables (green bean, vegetable cowpea, potato, sweet potato and soybean) or produce vegetables as by-products (bean leaves and cassava leaves); -and to the complementarity of recommended programs with the ongoing work at AVRDC on some of these commodities. In this review, TAC has also identified oilseed crops as an area of high priority for research. They are important sources of fat and protein, they enjoy a growing demand, they are a viable cash crop for small-scale farmers, and growing deficits have been projected for developing-country regions. This priority was reflected in TAC's recommendation to increase resources to soybean and groundnut research. It also underlies TAC's recommendation of coconut as a possible new venture within the CGIAR. TAC considers that coconut is the oil crop most in need of International research on the crop is international research support. currently underfunded but has. the potential for high payoff. Coconut is a small-holder crop that is ecologically sound and offers a broad range of dietary, income and employment opportunities. It is not. only a prfmary source of edible oil, but also of fibre and Livestock feed, and it can be processed into a variety of end products. Furthermore, with the progress that has been made in tissue culture, there appears to be a good research potential for 'coconut. TAC, therefore, encourages the creation of a research network to strengthen and coordinate coconut research and supports CG System involvement in such a network. The third new venture identified as a high priority for CC System involvement is aquaculture. Fish and fish products are important sources of protein for the poor in developing-country regions, particularly in Asia and Africa. Aquaculture now accounts for 8% of world fish production and demand has expanded as the size of sea catches has leveled off in recent years. It is estimated that aquaculture couLd produce up to six times the current level of production (10 M t of fish and fish Aquaculture enables products) through expansion and/or intensification. environmentally sound, high-off-take Eood production from limited areas There is a clear indication of the need for multiof Land and water. disciplinary research at the strategic and applied levels to develop appropriate and cost-effective technologies for increased production, TAC, thus, recommends that aquaparticularly with respect to finfish. culture be included as a new venture in the CG System, should additional funding become available. TAC notes, before however, embarking that some important on such an initiative. concerns would have These include: to be the addressed 96 identification of specific research problems and species (eg. Tilapia) which can be appropriately addressed at the international Level; the determination of priority regions for initiating efforts; and the identification of the appropriate institutional mechanism, such as a network or research center to undertake the work. TAC has these issues under review and will be able to address them with more precision in the future. A fuller review of these commodity groups their priority ranking as possible new ventures presented in the Technical Annex, Part 3. and .justiEication for the CGIAR is of 4.3.7. Priority recommendations and the System's long-term goal In its review of commodity priorities, TAC has employed a broad range of priority indicators in order to make recommendations for the short term which ensure the CG System's continued progress towards its At the same time, long-term goal. through its recommendations TAC has endeavoured to enhance the efEic1enc.y and productivity of the CG System in order to attain maximum impact. TAC has confirmed that critical food problems persist in ing-country regions and that research and related activities to food production cannot be diminished. Not only do urgent needs but opportunities for impact and returns to additional investment TAC has, therefore, research remain excellent. recommended that System maintain its focus on food .crops, rather than expand its to include export/cash crops, at least for the current 25-year horizon. developincrease persist, in the CG coverage planning Under both funding scenarios considered, TAC's recommendations result in a broader and more batanced coverage of commodities. Various commodities that have been underfunded in the past, in relation to their importance and relevance to the System’s goal, are recommended for strengthening in this review. This objective is achieved primarily through a recommended shift in resources away. from the major cereals rice and wheat. TAC has also recommended some.consolidation in commodity programs as a means oE enabling the remaining programs to achieve eventually the critical mass necessary for.imp.act. Three crops which are important to specific regions but of llmited global importance consequently,. recommended for lentil, faba bean and cocoyam - are, phasing out. 4.4. CGIAR Priorities in the Regional Context While the System's priorities are determined at the global level, decisionsare based on a thorough analysis of information reflecting Priority recommenopportunities and impact potentials. regional needs, dations thus reflect both the global importance of commodities and program approaches competing for CGIAR resources, .and their regional relevance. This balance between the international nature of the free from national pressures and regional interests, System, and its largely 97 regional relevance at the regional needs and issues, that must be preserved. operational constitutes level, which pays due attention to one of the System's key strengths The tools TAC uses for making recommendations, in particular the analytical framework for priority assessment developed in this review,. clearly reflect this need for balance. The set of indicators used addresses this complex range of concerns relating to both global and regional issues. 4.4.1. Regional challenges facing the CG System The present and anticipated challenges that the CG System and its partners in the global system are facing at the global Level, have been outlined in Chapter 2. To he successfully met, they require concerted and forceful action in all four of the.System's program thrusts: resource management and conservation to ensure long-term sustainable productivity in agriculture; technology generation to increase the productivlty of commodity production systems: the policy environment for technology development and adoption; and strengthening OE national research capacities. At the regional Level, the urgency of needs and the nature of the problems in meeting food needs vary both among and within these four primary areas of concern. The distribution of CG funds by region, while not directly reflective of the degree of efforts, provides an indication of regional emphases within the System. In 1983, 42% of the System's funds were used in Sub-Saharan Africa, 25% in Asia, 19% in Latin America, and 14% in North Africa/Near East. The differential rates of investment reflect to a large degree the divergent needs of the regions and the varying levels of capacity of national research systems. The most urgent food problems have shifted in recent years from Asia to AErica. Asia's immense food problems of the 1960s which, along with other considerations, motivated the creation of the CGIAR, have largely been solved through effective collaboration of national efforts, the,CGIAR, international development agencies and bilateral donors. These collaborative efforts, sustained over a period of time, have generated the required knowledge base for productive agricultural research, appropriate technologies for the principal staples (rice and wheat) and, most important, the institutional capacities for an essentially self-sustained effort. Today, it is the urgency of Sub-Saharan Africa's food problems The rapidly growing food deficit isa source that dominates the scene. of considerable alarm; there are chronic food shortages in more than 20 countries in the region. These problems have been building up over a Solutions will, period of time and are caused by numerous factors. But clearly, the three contritherefore, have to be multidimensional. America butions that the CGIAR can make, and has made in ,Asia and Latin - i.e. technology generation, policy research and the buildup of national research capacities - will be important ingredients of any solution. 98 4.4.2. Regional case of research needs and Sub-Saharan Africa the CGIAR response: The The situation in Africa is characterized by the urgency of needs resulting from the rapidly growing food deficit caused by stagnation in food production and rapid population growth; and the lack of easy solutions due to the difficult and heterogeneous resource base in terms of soils, climate and irrigation potential; the highly uneven distribution of population with respect to resources: the current Low labour productivity in food crop agriculture and the critical seasonal shortages, in many areas, of labour; the high rates of urban migration: and the Lack of knowledge of appropriate technologies. The problems are compounded by the fact that food production has received less attention than export crops in many countries of Africa. The policy environment thus, has Eavoured neither the generation nor the adoption of technologies for food crops. Furthermore, the lack of attention 'to research has resulted in chronically weak national programs. All of these factors imply that the solutions to AErica's food problems will be diEEicult and slow. The availability of technology components which could be easily adapted to AErican conditions appears to be limited. Past efforts to Technologies develimport technologies have been largely unsuccessful. oped in Asia were designed for wide impact in the more favoured environments and farming conditions and the primary objective was to increase productivity per unit of land. the absence of Large-scale In Africa, irrigation potential and the prevalence of dryland farming in fact The tarimpede the widespread application of improved technologies. getting of specific efforts to generate new,technology is required. The lack of homogeneous conditions in Africa means that the Asian model can not be repeated. TAC considers that in view of the urgency and dimension of the problem, the complexity of the issue and the multiplicity of actors involved, a clear strategy will be required to guide the CG System's TAC has noted with approach towards Africa's technology requirements. satisfaction the first important steps that have been taken in this Due to direction and it expects to contribute further to such efforts. the limited time available, no attempt was made in this paper to develop Nevertheless, a' few issues are raised that will ultisuch a strategy. Most of these mately need to.be addressed more fully within the System. have been considered, implicitly or explicitly, in the discussion of future priorities. A distinct research strategy will be required for generating What is needed is a wide range of improved technologies in Africa. technologies which are more specifically targetted for both the diverse and more difficult conditions of rainfed agriculture and for the broad range of commodities grown in complex small-scale production systems. these will need to be labour-saving rather than landIn most cases, saving. Breeding strategies will, generally, have to be highly location-specific. A second factor the environments complicating in Africa the research agenda is that, are fragile and, in some cases, in many are cases, 99 already degrading. While attempting to raise productivity of rainfed agriculture, increased emphasis. will need to be placed on the goal of the long-term sustainability of production in the various agroecological The limited knowledge base of these environments and their prozones. duction systems implies sustai-ned efforts at all levels of research with a resulting increase in costs and technology-gestation periods. A third important consideration in developing the System’s strategy will be the allocation of its resources between favoured and unfavoured areas. Initial concentration on favoured conditions is likely to result in more rapid payoff in terms of generating marketable food surpluses, thus benefitting the country as a whole. A number of considerations suggest, however, that a balanced approach giving equal attention to less-favoured environments will be required. First, the extent of favoured conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa, as compared to Asia, is considerably.less. Soils are old in Africa, often fragile and Low in natural fertility, and the potential for irrigation is Limited. According to FAO estimates, by the year 2000, the area equipped for irrigation in Africa will be only 2% of the arable Land, compared to 34% Second, due to severe weaknesses in infrastructure and for Asia. marketing in most of Africa, mechanisms for food distribution will be poor for some time to come. Research to increase food production, therefore, will also have to target the more marginal environments iE the Large populations which reside in these areas are to escape chronic malnourishment and persistent poverty. TAC’s priortties for commodity research reflect this need for a broad and balanced approach. Given the heterogeneity of environments and the broad range of staple food commodities in Sub-Saharan Africa, it will be difficult to repeat the success story in Asia of the integrated approach to research and institution building. There, concentrated efEorts on a limited number of important commodities involving the Centers, national systems and development agencies, led relatively quickly to success in the generation and widespread adoption of improved technologies as well as to the buildup of national research capacities in those commodities. Success on both fronts in Africa is likely to be slower. A key concern for all Centers involved in generating technology for Africa is and will continue to he the weakness of national research The absence in many countries of adequate research capacities systems. to carry out adaptive research places the Centers concerned in a,difwhile impact considerations They face a conflict: ficult situation. would suggest that in the absence of other actors the Centers take on the strategy for the evolution of the part of the downstream functions, CC System suggested in this paper clearly recommends a gradual move upstream. There is no right or single solution to this dilemma. Neither a full-fledged involvement of Centers in downstream functions, nor the transfer of these functions to others, nor a concentration on those commodities and countries for which the appropriate capacities exist, would alone suffice. The ultimate strategy to be followed will have to be balanced, combining elements of all options available. Each Center, depending on its mandate and level of involvement in the region, will have to find the appropriate balance in its activities. . 100 The urgency and magnitude of the problem clearly call for a major concerted effort in research and development, involving all potential partners. LJndoubtedLy the Centers will have to play an important role in a well coordinated effort at technology development and institution building. Their emphasis will continue to be placed on research, complemented by an important catalytic eFfort in promoting the involvement of other actors (particularly development agencies) in clearly targetted training and institution building aimed at the accelerated buildup of nattonal capacities. The means for carrying out such efforts will continue to he situation-specific and will depend on a variety of factors relating to national system needs and potentials, commodities, Center strategies and Among the options are subregional Centers for adaptive/ donor interest. applied research, commodity-based networks centered’around a nucleus (a strong national system), and increased outposting of Center staEf to national programs and regions. TAC’s priority recommendations indicate that the System’s efforts in Africa should be further increased. This is reflected by the recommendations for both program approaches and commodity priorities. The System’s increased emphasis on enhancing the management and conservation of the natural-resource base implies an increased attention to rainfed agriculture and the buildup of an improved knowledge base, for increasing the productivity of farming systems in the more difficult and fragile SimilarLy , the recommended environments of Africa. increase in policy term, in institution building, responds research and, in the short directly to fundamental needs in Africa. Many of the priority recommendations concerning commodity research are also expected to benefit Africa, and some were made specifiThese recommendations include: cally in this light. the shift in effort among cereals to strengthen research on sorghum, millet and of efforts on roots, tubers and starchy foods, maize ; the strengthening the consolidation in research which are staples in many parts of Africa; on food legumes, which favours pigeon pea, groundnut and soybean - all of which have a strong potential in Africa; and the continuation of the basic research on ruminant diseases, which render large areas of Africa unfit for ruminant production. Strengthened efforts on these fronts in effectively coordinated with the efforts of its partners the CG System, should contribute significantly to increasing food in the global system, crop production in Africa. 4.4.3. A need for balance: The other regions While Africa clearly has the most urgent need for increased food production, national systems in the other major developing-country Latin America and North Africa/Near East - also require regions - Asia, For the assistance and support at varying levels, from the CG System. food problems have been addressed in moment , many of the most pressing these regions and significant improvements have been made; but the situation is dynamic and evolving due to, among other factors, popuhigh levels of poverty. rising food .demand, and continued lation growth, If the gains that have been made in the past are not to be lost in the future , continued research will be needed to achieve further sustainable 101 increases against in food. productionand to maintain erosion by pests and diseases. current yield levels .. The CGIAR, as an international system, must maintain a long-term and global perspective and respond to these diverse regional needs in balance with its efforts to alleviate the immediate problems in ,Africa. Yet, in a no-growth funding scenario, responding adequately to even the most urgent research needs of all developing-country regions would be difficult. The increased concentration of resources in Africa will further constrain the CG System's capacity to assist national systems in the other regions. Therefore, in its recommendations, TAC has tried to ensure that at Least several of the key problems in each region are addressed by the Centers in the future. In TAC's view, however, the exercise of formulating priorities has revealed, without question; that if a broadly based and significant impact is to be made on the persistent food and poverty problems in all developing-country regions, an increase of investment in agricultural research will be required. In Asia, due to dramatic increases in yields from modern varieties and associated improved technologies, Eood output per capita has been growing steadily over the last decade, and marginal self-sufficiency has been achieved for the primary staple - rice. Yet, there is no Over 65% of the developing-country population is room for complacency. found in Asia and, while the rate OF popuLation growth has slowed, projections to the year 2000 show that approximately 40 millon additional people will have to be fed in Asia each year. Furthermore, despite the significant progress that has been made in raising food production, malnutrition and massive poverty persist as chronic and deeply disturbing problems in large parts of Asia (Annex,Table 2). To meet the future food needs of Asia and to make an impact on the poverty of the region, technological progress in agriculture will The challenge for technology have to be maintained, if not accelerated. The basic requirement is that development in the future is twofold. sufficient increases in productivity be attained to ensure that food The desired goal is to production keeps pace with population growth. as cheap food is the primary instrument to combat reduce food prices, This is not an easy task, despite the extreme poverty of the region. the relatively favourable environmental conditions and the potential for further expansion in irrigation. Population density with respect to and the capacity to increase arable land is the highest in the world, production through the expansion of the area under cultivation is have to be made through Gains will, therefore, severely constrained. both in irrigated and rainfed further intensification in agriculture, environments. TAC forsees future CG System involvement in Asia as comprised of First, the CG System should be active in four primary components. collaborating with national systems to sustain technological advances in the production of the major staples of the region in order to increase Given the strength productivity and bring down the cost of basic foods. of the national systems of some of the largest rice and wheat producing countries in the region, the CG System should concentrate in the upstream areas of research to maintain current yield gains, expand yield frontiers, and improve stability of yields. 102 Second, the CG System should strengthen its collaborative efforts with national systems on regionally important commodities which so far have been relatively neglected. This should assist the efforts to intensify production by developing improved technologies for crops which can be fit into multiple-cropping systems (such as cowpea, pigeon pea and sweet potato) and by providing the means for intensification in the Less-favourable environments - eg. through increases in the production of upland rice, cassava, sorghum or miLLet. Third, TAC's recommendation for increased research attention to food commodities which are also cash crops - such as groundnut - should have an important impact on the key problem of poverty in the region. Specifically, the new ventures recommended by TAC for inclusion in the CG System - vegetables, aquaculture and coconut - will directly benefit Asia, where the production and the role in the diet of these Eoods is important. Finally, to address pervasive in this region, The CG System can contribute research in Asia, in order sound policy formulation. the issues of complex policy by supporting to expand the poverty and malnourishment so decisions will be required. and sponsoring more policy knowledge base required for Compared to other developing-country regions, Latin America is in terms of resources and has the highest proportion of well favoured land suitable for rainfed agricuLture. Poverty and malnourishment are less pervasive and the problems of population pressure on the naturalThe situation, however, varies conresource base are less severe. siderably among countries, and in parts of Central America, for example, the situation is already quite critical (Annex Table 2). In Latin America, technology generated with the help oE the CG made an important contribution to the most Centers has, as in Asia, critical production needs. Countries in this region made significant strides in increasing food production during the 196Os, when it had the However, highest annual rate of growth in food production in the world. the rate oE growth in production has declined markedly in the past decade. Food production has not been able to keep pace with the demand which has been fueled by rising income levels and by the substantiaL, During the past decade, the increases in demand for livestock feeds. region has turned from a net exporter into a net importer of food. Hence, the food problem in Latin America, while substantially Important technological problems of a improved, is by no means solved. I more long-term nature persist - in particular, constraints to sustainable utilization of the vast rangelands and the tropical forest zones. Difficult policy questions relating to equity in availability of food and to the appropriate balance between food and feed needs are of immethe growth in the capacities of national diate concern. And, finally, research capacities has been uneven and erratic. The CG System is expected to continue as an important actor in the countries of the region to address these needs in the the increased emphasis on Of TAC's priority recommendations, the strengthened efforts in productivity - in particular, development and pasture improvement - will be of direct assisting future. livestock rangeland 103 benefit to Latin America, where ruminant production constitutes over of that of all developing-country regions. The increased support to research on maize and sorghum, as well as the sustained efforts in phaseolus bean, potato and cassava - all of which are important food crops in Latin America - will further benefit the region. 50% In the North Africa/Near East region, with its extensive arid the environment for agriculture is the least favorable of areas, developing-country regions. In general, less than 10% of the land area is suitable for rainfed crop production, although irrigation is used for intensive agriculture in parts of the region. The highland areas, which support a substantial proportion of the population, have problems of inaccessibility, Land pressure, overgrazing and erosion. Despite these difficult conditions, food production has been growing steadily at an annual rate of 2.7% during the past decade. However, with rising income levels from the oil industry, demand has far outstripped production, creating a rising tide of food and feed imports into the region. Suhstantial gains in production will have to be made if this gap is to be narrowed. Several of TAC's priority recommendations should be of direct The recommended increase in benefit to North Africa/Near East. resource management and conservation efforts in the CG System should be particularly effective for improving sustainable production in the 'fragile environments of dry areas. Recognizing the importance of livestock production in this region, TAC has also recommended a strengthening of research efforts on small ruminants (which are key components of the farming systems in the marginal areas) and a consolidation of research efforts on barley to focus on this region, where it is the most .imporAlthough TAC has recommended a phasing down of efforts tant feed crop. on two of the important legumes in the region - faba bean and lentil it has suggested that a consolidated research thrust be directed towards the System's extensive research efforts in wheat, chickpea. Finally, which is the primary source of Calories and protein in the diet of the region, will continue to make a significant impact on improving the welfare of low-income people. 104 CHAPTER 5. GUIDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CG SYSTEM: SOME ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE This review has so far focussed on the evolution of the System's priorities, its operating structure and its strategies. It confirms the continued relevance of the CGIAR's goal and broad program structure, but it has identified a number of important shifts in program emphasis. It has reviewed the current operating structure and basically confirmed the adequacy of existing mechanisms, particularly the Center concept, to implement priority decisions. It has reviewed the basic concepts of the System's strategy and confirmed, subject to shifts in emphasis, present trends in the evolution of that strategy. Most of the changes recommended in all three areas are evolutionary in nature and many are well under way at a number of Centers. The implementation of TAC's recommendations regarding shifts in emphasis therefore, be feasible without causing major problems for the should, System. In the longer term, however, the changes envisaged - such as the evolution of the System's long-term role and functions in the global. context, shifts in program priorities, and adjustments in operational strategies - will raise a number of important institutional issues that require attention at the System level. These issues concern the longterm health and vigour of the System as a whole. They go beyond TAC's mandate and require attention by all relevant components of the System: Centers (Boards and managements), donors, clients and TAC. Some issues that will require attention are: the adequacy of the proper guidance of its evoluSystem's management tools to ensure the tion; the future size and structure of the System: the future division of labour among Centers: the future,size of Centers; linkages with the and the continued.existence of the CGIAR broader research environment: beyond the food crisis. obviously differ in importThese issues, though interrelated, time horizon and action requirements. The common objecance, urgency, tive in addressing them is to ensure the proper guidance in the long to increase further its overall term of the evolution of the System, and to maintain its institutional efficiency and cost-effectiveness, vigour and vitality. 5.1. The System's and Resource Management Allocation Tools: Improving Planning, Programming As a general long-term planning. making is centralized, tions, such as the sound management requires a certain amount rule, This holds true for organizations whose decision as well as for.highly decentralized organizaCGIAR. of This discussion of issues related to the long-term evolution of The object of the System has confirmed the need for long-term planning. such planning is to guide the evolution of programs, structures and 105 strategies conserving basis for and vitality. in the light of changing needs and.opportunities, while and reinforcing those characteristics that constitute the the System's success, in particular, its institutional vigour As in most decentralized organizations, the planning process in the CGIAR is a complex undertaking, involving various actors: Center Boards and managements, TAC and the donors. It is carried out at two levels: at the central (System) level, the process focusses on broad issues concerning the System's orientation and structure: at the operational (Center) level, it concentrates on issues of program content, with emphasis on relevance, scientific quality and overall efficiency. This section looks at the gramming and resource allocation; as management tools in the light to identify improvements. System's mechanisms for planning, proit attempts to assess their adequacy of changing circumstances, and it seeks 5.1.1. Planning and Programming in the CGIAR The objective of the planning process in guiding the System's what, how and evolution is to provide answers to, three key questions: The "what" how much. addresses the goal and deals with program content The "how" concerns the choice of operational and program structure. structures and strategies to implement programs in pursuit of the goal. The "how much" deals with the funding requirements of programs and is used to generate guidelines for resource allocation. To assess the adequacy of existing planning mechanisms and to consideration needs to be,given to those identify areas for improvement, characteristics of the System which determine its management structure The development and growth of the and its choice of management tools. System occurred in the absence of any central plan or management structure. The System's management is decentralized, but in recent years there has been an increasing interaction among the various components Center Boards and managements, TAC, donors and clients - and a trend The management and planning towards more coherence within the System. structure that has evolved has some distinct characteristics which reflect the System's basic philosophy and should, hence, be reinforced. The planning process should continue to be decentralized, with central oversight kept to a necessary minimum in order to avoid bureaucratization. It should leave appropriate room for scientific and effectively involve (at different levels) all entrepreneurship, with each contributing in its relevant components of the System, the planning process should Finally, specific area of 'competence. integrate effectively all relevant elements dealing with strategic operational planning (at the Center planning (at the System level), level), evaluation (at all levels) and resource allocation. The System's four main tools for planning and programming are: planning and programming at planning process at the System level; Center level; program evaluation at both System and Center levels; the resource allocation or budget process. the the and 106 Planning at the System Level. The objective of the planning process at the System level is to provide broadly based guidance and orientation to the System's program thrusts in relation to its central goal. Apart from reviews of the. CGIAR conducted at its own request by independent panels, this process is limited to periodic assessments (roughly every five.years) of the System's priorities. The assessments are carried out by TAC with the participation of the Centers and their clients, the national systems. They determine the orientation of the System's program: define priorities among program thrusts, approaches and commodity programs; and provide broad guidelines for resource allocation. Their recommendations have in the past focussed on the short to medillm term. In this review, the scope of the process has been broadened to include issues concerning the long-term evolution, not only of the System's program structure, but also of its ,operational structures and strategies. In expanding the scope of the assessment and in providing a conceptual framework for addressing the larger system-wide issues in a coherent manner, TAC has responded to an important, and previously unmet need. It has assumed the functions of a program committee at the System level and initiated a dialogue on the System's evolution that should be continued with the active participation of all components of the System. Planning and Programming at the Center Level. Planning and programming at the Center level comprise both short-term program development with emphasis on the orientation, relevance and scientific quality of programs; and long-term planning to guide the evolution of Centers as institutions of scientific excellence. Both parts of the oE the process should be conducted increasingly with the perspective System and its priorities. Centers provide important inputs for priority setting at the System level; and by translating priorities into they determine the direction, scientific quality operational programs, and relevance of the System's program thrusts. Program evaluation is Program Evaluation. System level through the review process mentioned exercises as the Impact Study. It is also carried level. Program evaluation at both levels satisfies among donors for accountability. It also furnishes effective mechanism for providing inputs into the conducted at the above and through such out at the Center the increasing need the Centers with an planning process. At the Centers, program evaluation is executed through annual internal reviews and through External Program Reviews (EPRs) carried out EPRs, conducted at roughly five-year under the leadership of TAC. intervals, are normally focussed on speciEic Centers, although Systemlevel reviews of specific programs or issues have also been undertaken the farming systems research study, and the (e.g. the training study, The regular EPRs of individual review of off-campus activities). Centers focus on the orientation, relevance, scientific quality and They serve primarily to provide impact potential of their programs. information to donors about the performance and the evolution of and to channel inputs into the Centers' internal Centers' programs, planning process. To date, planning EPRs have not at the System made any significant level nor to the contributions allocation of to resources. either 107 They have addressed only the program issues of the Center under review. That is, @hey’ have not placed the Center’s program in the broader context oE the System, which would facilitate comparisons across the Furthermore, they have’not normally dealt with funding issues System. by systematically assessing the resource requirements of the programs of the Center under review. These objectives could be achieved, however, through appropriate adjustments in the process. TAC, in consultation with the CGIAR Secretariat, has set in motion a systematic study of the external review process, which.will involve both Centers and donor representatives. The study should lead to improvements, such as those mentioned above, which would enhance the EPRs’ contribution to the budget process and the long-term planning process at both System and Center levels. The Resource Allocation Process (Budget Process). TAC’s annual recommendations to the CGIAR on the allocation of the System’s resources are based on an analysis’of program proposals put forward by Centers. These recommendations., after acceptance by the CGIAR, form the bases for program execution. This process should represent the convergence of strategic planning at the System level (priority setting) and operational planning at the Center level (programming). Ideally, it translates agreed objectives into viable operational programs. Priority settlng at the System level and the external reviews at the Center level should generate important inputs for determining program priorities and resource requirements. In the past, however, the linkages between these activities have been weak. Consequently, allocations have, in recent years, tended to be based more on historical trends than on the reconciliation of priority ,rankings and real program costs. The outcome of the budget process has, therefore, tended towards the status quo, which may not’necessarily conform to the real resource TAC, whose function in this process is requirements of viable programs. essentially that of a program committee at the System level, has been concerned by these constraints. It has been obliged to focus on marginal adjustments dictated by financial considerations, rather than on program considerations emanating from the agreed priorities. The ultimate objective of TAC’s involvement in the budget process is to produce sound advice to donors so that their decisions on resource efficient and cost-eEfective programs allocation will lead to relevant, This objective can obviousdirected totiards the System’s central goal. ly best be met if ali partners involved in the process - Center Boards in providing the required and managements, as well as TAC - collaborate inputs: guidance on the System’s priorities, Center-specific strateThe conviction and precise information on resource requirements. gies, that there is both a need and a potential for improvement in the process of allocating resources is shared by all parties. A budget study, currently under way, is addressing the relevant issues. 5.1.2. of the Improvements in the for Overall Process individual mechanisms components have been Needs and opportunities System’s overall planning highlighted above. In summary, improving the and programming they are : 108 - improvements in the process of strategic planning at the System level through a broadened scope, the inclusion of long-term strategies, and enhanced participation of Centers - all of which would make strategic planning a truly collaborative effort; - an adjustment in the Center level through System perspective; process of planning and programming the inclusion of a more comprehensive at the - an improved linkage between efforts through more effective developed in this paper; shortand long-term planning use of the conceptual framework - improvements in the external review process through a broadened focus which would faciLttate comparability of program issues across Centers and ensure adequate coverage of issues relating to resource requirements for viable programs; and - improvements essentially the budget process. More important-, in the resource allocation process, which could be brought about through enhanced linkages between process and the other components of the planning individual overall tools, process IS the through however, than specific improvements concerning need for more coherence and integration in improved linkages and feedback mechanisms. the TAC emphasizes that all of the recommended adjustments are feasible and can be implemented without any major structural changes in In fact, many are already under way and merely the planning process. TAC considers that with these adjustments, the need reinforcement. System would have a useful set of tooLs to mdet its planning needs and It will be able to respond to changing to guide its future evolution. needs and circumstances while conserving its institutional VigOur and vitality. 5.2. Future Size and Structure of the CG.-System So far, the The System's past growth has been impressive. organizational features that characterize the System, particularly its decentralized decision making, .have responded well to the challenges of New Centers and programs have been created without jeopardizing growth. The findings of this review support on balance, its overall efficiency. the ideal that the System should remain small and flexible, conserving those institutional and organizational characteristics which have concontinue to concentrate It should, therefore, tributed to its success. on selected problems and work in close partnership and complementarity with national systems and others in the global system. -. research size in resources additional initiated TAC's recommendations on both commodity coverage and the scope activities suggest limited expansion of the System's overall The availability of additional the short to medium term. Clearly, if would determine the size of that expansion. resources were not available, new activities could be only at therexpense of ongoing activities. of 109 For the long-term evolution of the System's structure, TAC's main conclusions and recommendations suggest more continuity than change, especially if the System's main organization principle remains the center, and its primary research approach muLtidiscipLinary. TAC is confident that the shifts towards strategic research and towards enhancing its service function to national systems, together with the moderate increase in size resulting from the inclusion of the recommended new initiatives, can he accommodated wtthout difficulty. Nevertheless, TAC considers that whatever the future size and structure of the. System may tools and procedures need continuing attention to be, its management ensure that they remain effective and efficient. 5.3. Division of Labour among Centers In discussing the long-term evolution of the System and its operational strategies, an important consideration is the way in which the System will handle the division of labour among Centers. There are two relevant questions: how the specific responsibilities for functions, commodities, agroecological zones, and regions are assigned to individual Centers; and how funds are allocated to'centers for performing these functions. A ratfonal distribution of responsibilities among Centers, while at the same time conserving the basic princip,le of Center autonomy, will be important for further increasing the System's overall efficiency and cost-effectiveness. The present pattern in which functions and responsibilities in pursuit of the System's central goal are assigned to individual Centers is the result of an historical p~ocdss, not of any systematic planning effort. Centers were added one at a time with no realization that the CG System would grow to its present size and complexity. While today there is an impressive array of commodity improvement and related functions distributed across the Centers in the System, the current clistribution may not necessarily be the most efficient or cost-effective. Considerable progress towards achieving an efficient division of labour has already been achieved through adjustments made by individual Centers in the process of implementing their formal mandates, as well as there remains.considerahle scope through inter-Center cooperation. Yet, for further improvement. Among the factors that determine the overall effectiveness in distribution of functions and the assignment of mandates ac.ross the System are locational issues, efficiency considerations, and considerations concerning the viability of Centers and their programs. the Options for locating research on a particular Locational Issues. commodity include: the commodity's center of origin, with the advantages of access to wild species and varieties, together with the diseases, pest’s and natural enemies in the environments where they have i.e. the main production area: and evolved; the center of the problem, i.e. a Center which provides an the center of scientific excellence, ideal research environment in 'terms of information base, expertise, This could be a and linkages to basic science. research facilities, Center which already conducts an improvement program on related commodities. 110 Efficiency Considerations. There is a high degree of complementarity between many programs conducted at different Centers. For example, two Centers may work on different pests of the same commodity. This may be an argument for grouping commodCtLes with similar characteristics, environmental needs, constraints or research requirements at a single Center. Such a grouping could benefit from common elements, such as an existing knowledge base, physical facilities, and relevant linkages to upstream institutions and clients. A number of such groupings already exist; others that could be considered are groupings of food legumes or of certain roots and tubers: The benefits of commodity groupings in terms of efficiency are likely to increase in the Longer term as Centers ’ research programs move upstream and the site-specific downstream functions are increasingly taken over by national systems. Viability of Centers. Equally important are considerations relating to the size and viability of Centers. To be viable institutions, Centers need viable programs, consisting of one or more commodities that are important to clients, have impact potential, and have the ability to attract funding. These characteristics support the global, rather than the regional focus of the CG System. Clearly, there is an optimum’ number of commodities which can be effectively and efficiently a researched at any one Center. Viability of Programs. The viability of individual programs has emerged as an important concern during this priority review. The issue is to define the minimum critlcal mass required for viable programs with appropriate impact potential, and for ensuring that funds are allocated this leads to efficient resource accordingly. At the aggregate level, utilization and avoids spreading resources too thinly. There is no mechan%sm available in the current process for The allocating resources which appropriately deals with this concern. result is the persistence of a number of small and underfunded commodity which clearly operate below their optimum size: improvement programs, hence the need for a consolidation of efforts. This concern will need to be addressed in the future. Defining the minimum critical mass for viable commodity programs and the corresponding resource requirements Ls, clearly, a complex undertaking which requires consideration of at least the following factors: - the program’s objectIves and the resulting research activities; - the circumstances etc.) under which - the number improvement (geographic, it has to institutional, function: ecologies (irrigated, for organizational, and diversity program is of the conducted which upland, with the etc.); - the number and diversity of Center collaborates (degree -downstream activities, etc.); - the research history attained, etc.); of the national systems of regionalization, whtch the need for commodity (the yield levels 111 - the vs. place of the commodity in farming systems complex small-holder farming systems); post-harvest problems (monoculture - the type and number.of commodity; - the availability institutions); - the the - the and role and place global research type of breeding of affecting the basic knowledge (e.g. from specialized of the effort research on that program specific of in the context commodity; location specificity); of strategy (degree - the possible benefits where the program is from economies located. of scale at the Center 5.3.1. Rationalizing the Distribution of Mandates In the light of these considerations regarding the overall effectiveness of the CG System, TAC proposes to study, in consultation with Center Roards and managements, ways and means of further rationalizing the distribution of functions among Centers. One way of achieving this might be to interpret mandates as assignments in pursuit of the System's central goal, rather fixed-term than as "permanent" responsibilities. Such an arrangement would necessitate a reconciliation of the principle oE Center and Board autonomy with an integrated set of CGIAR objectives. It would also be important to ensure that assignments are sufficiently long to permit realistic chances of success. the rationalization Clearly, assignments of specific functions changes might be envisaged should disruptive effects on programs. of mandates could involve the reWhatever and programs among Centers. be gradual, in order to avoid 5.4. Future Size of Centers Another, but no less important consideration concqrning the evolution of the System and its operational strategy, is the future size of Centers. This issue is closely related to the future size and functions of the System, its research emphasis, arrangements for the division of labour among Centers, and efficiency considerations at the It is Center level that will guide the evolution of their strategies. also an important concern in efforts to rationalize the division of labour in the System, while conserving or enhancing the viability of Centers. The concept of optimum size or minimum critical mass is defined in this context as the aggregate of staff and other resources required to perform effectively those functions that are essential to a Center's goal. These include a Center's responsibilities for commodity 112 improvement, for agroecological zones, for training and institution building, for policy research, and for other related activities. While considerations at different levels converge in defining Centers' optimum size (strategic, programmatic, operational and financial concerns), this clearly is a domain to be handled by the Centers, with appropriate inputs from other components of the System. While the issue of future size has received attention at most of only a few have so far clearly indicated their expectations the Centers, for long-term growth and Future size. One of them defined its optimum size, set a ceiling, adopted a no-growth policy and stated in its Longterm plan its intention to decrease over time the size oE its central program (through the transfer to national systems of several functions). TAC considers that in the Light of resource constraints and the desire to foster the System's overall effectiveness, greater attention should be given to the question of optimum.size and patterns of future growth. The objective should be to enhance efficiency at both Center and System levels; it should certainly not be to introduce uniformity among the Centers. Centers should maintain their independence and diversity of size, structure, operational strategy and management style. 5.5. Linkages with the Broader Research Environment The previous sections have dealt with internal issues resulting from the evolution of the CGIAR. But it must also be remembered that the System is only one of many actors involved in agricultural research and, as surely as it changes, so will the functions of the other actors. Here, three issues are identified which will require careful watching: linkages with national research systems; linkages with specialized of agricultural research. institutions; and privStizStion This review has emphasized the crucial nature of the linkages between the CGIAR and its primary clients, the national research systems. The critical point for the future is to recognize that as national research systems evolve, .the nature of their interaction with the CGIAR will change; this, in turn, will alter the nature of the System's activities. TAC cannot predict the evolutionary path of national systems, but it is certain that the CGIAR's relationships with national research systems will not remain static. This review has recommended that; with the strengthening of national systems, the Centers should move their research focus more upstream. The clear implication of this shift is that the Centers should have more interaction with specialized institutions doing basic most of which are found in developed countries. and strategic research, Furthermore, the Centers should perform a criti.cal linking role between The relative balance these institutions and national research systems. of expenditures and programs between the research systems of developing countries and specialized institutions will always be a sensitive issue TAC will keep this matter under close examination. with donors. A phenomenon which could have far reaching implications future conduct of international agricultural research is the involvement of the private sector in research'and development, in the increasing in both 113 developed and developing countries. This development iS expected to gain momentum, particularly with the increasing adoption of the hybrid approach in commodi.ty improvement and the acceleration of proprietary biotechnological processes and products in agricultural production. The enlarged role of the private sector could mean additional and much needed resources for agricultural research. But this could also imply increasing barriers to the hitherto free flow of scientific information and genetic materials in and out of the System. The proper role of public sector research vis-8-vis private sector research is fairly well defined in developed countries, but most developing countries have had very little experience in this regard. Even among developed countries, the sharing of responsihi~lities between the two sectors covers a wide range of possibilities. TAC and the Centers closely and determine will need policies to monitor all as necessary. of these develop- ments 5.6. Beyond the Food Long-Term Future Crisis: of the A Few Considerations CGIAR Regarding the The long-term scenario of world agriculture that has provided the hackground to this review is characterized by a number of trends which, in aggregate, constitute a serious challenge for the CGIAR and its partners in the global research system. Technological, policy and institutional challenges related to food production are enormous. They are complemented, or aggravated, by challenges of similar magnitude issuesrelated to environmental Past and pro.jected trends relating to the degradation of soil, water and energy resources make it imperative that adequate measures be taken to stabilize the natural-resource base. Research clearly has the potential to provide the knowledge and technologies required to feed future generations. These technologies must be productive, environmentally sound and energy-efficient. It is, thus, clear that the CG System will continue to play an important role The System's contributions in the battle against hunger and poverty. will change as the global system evolves and the research capacities of its partners develop, particularly those of the national systems. 'Still, its involvement will be necessary for a long time in the concerted effort to generate those technologies that will feed future populations. But surely it is possible food issue can, over time, be gradual shift of the System’s planning horizon. Part oE its new ventures in difEerent, but out of a large number of options thought. to be optimistic and to assume that the Thus, one could solved. envisage a focus to alternative options beyond this resources could then be transferred to equally important areas of concern. Two are outlined below to stimulate further An important area of concern, already addressed earlier in this will continue to be improved technology for the world's important paper, small-scale, cash-crop producers. Even when assuming a gradual improvement in food production under the optimistic scenario, the problem of poverty will remain, particularly in the world's more populated regions, 114 where the numbers of poor will continue contribute significantly towards solving poverty, food production and nutrition. to be high. Cash the interrelated crops can problems of This group of commodities, not recommended for CGIAR funding at the present time for the reasons stated, represents an opportunity for investment in internatIonal agricultllral research and offers a potential for high returns. Such a sh-lft In focus would fLt both the basic structure of the System (the Center concept), and its operational strategy (the multidisciplinary approach to commodity research). It would Lend itself to a process of gradual change, i.e. the inclusion in the System of one or more crops (such as cotton), as food commodity research becomes more and more the province of national programs. Another option is research to improve the long-term management A specific example is the and conservation of transnational resources. These are effective management of the world’s Large river basins. transnational problems of paramount importance to the future of mankind and they clearly require international attention. This option would probably require important changes in the basic organization of the System, including its operational structure and research strategy: and Yet it behooves the process of change would no longer be evolutionary. the CGIAR to think forward in sufficiently broad terms so that future global issues can be anticipated before they become current crises. 115 TECHNICAL ANNEX Part 1 - Considerations Assessment of Addressed in Program"Approaches the Priority 117 Part 2 - Indicators Commodities for Priority Setting Among 119 Part 3 - Commodity Review 129 Part 4 - Notes on the Data Base 167 Part 5 - Annex Tables 173 117 TECHNICAL ANNEX: PART 1 Consideratiois Addressed in the Priority Assessment of Program Approaches Relevance to central goal does the approach/actCvity to that pursue? objective? What ob.iective(s) What Opportunities -is its relative contribution in ‘the .Euture the opportunities in the context in the future? or constraints the changing of the approach/ needs for agricultural What are activity research of What kinds of internal shifts in priorities among activities comprised by the approach might be expected in terms of the changing structure of international agricultural research? Are there new activities that should be included within approach in order for the CG System to better meet its objectives in the context of the future challenges to fnternational agricultural research? How effectide .to meets its will central the approach be in assisting goal in the future? for have other CG System involvement advantage the global in this research program system? the the the CG System i;;.“i EffCciency considera.tions Does the approach What is approach CG System vis-a-vis the in current relation a comparative members of nature of to other the CG System involvement in members of the global system? In the context of the evolving of the CG System’s involvement the level of its involvement to achieve maximum efficiency global research system? global system, should the nature Should remain the same or change? increase, be maintained, or decrease and productivity within the whole What types of changes should be instituted among activities in the approach to ensure efficiency in the System’s pursuit In what areas could consolidation he implemented its goal? ensure a strong and viable program approach? What are the structural and institutional implications of recommended priority shifts within the approach or in relation What effects will these have on Centers’ to other approaches? mandates and the division of labour among Centers? withof to 118 On the basis of a systematic evaluation structured by the three basic areas of consideration outlIned above, TAC made recommendations for the future research allocation to each approach. The following questions were conssdered: Are the present the activCties current needs? resource allocation within the approach to the sufficient approach and in terms of In terms of the priorities recommended, what changes in resource allocations to the approach and activities within the approach would he necessary in the future to reflect more fully the System’s goal and operational objectives? How can shifts in priorities allocations be accommodated context? How could shifts funding scenario? and recommended resource within the current resource be accommodated within a more optimistic 119 TECHNICAL ANNEX: PART 2 Indicators for Priority Setting Among Commodities TAC employed an analytical approach based on the use of priority indicators to establish priorities among commodities and to make recomThe indicators repremendations concerning the allocation of resources. sent the most important elements to be considered in the process of establishing priorities. The priority indicators selected by TAC are the product of careful deliberation. The number of indicators employed reflects the complexity of priority assessment in the CG System. They are complementary and Some lend themselves to quantitative analysis while multidimensional. others are of a more qualitative nature. Each indicator has strengths and weaknesses and standing alone would be insufficient as a basis for When united, however, they provide the basis for priority assessment. rational decision making by relating the commodity research effort under consideration to the CGIAR goal. First, both Two axes of analysis are built into the indicators. For the quantitaglobal and regional levels oE analysis are employed. tive indicators, the statistical information from 90 developing countries has been disaggregated into 12 regional groupings distinguished primarily on the basis of agroecological characteristics (Annex Table 1). These figures reveal the relative importance of commodities in each region as well as the weight of each region in terms of the global situation. a dynamic analysis is used, which places priority assessment Second, opportunities and constraints. within the context of future needs, A full indicators statistical is description given in tables are of the data base assembled Part 4 of the Technical Annex, given in Part 5. for the quantifiable while the the indicators are organized into three broad For greater clarity, categories of considerations essential to priority setting for commodity relevance, productivity and efficiency. research within the CG System: Table IV in the text provides a summary of all of the indicators employed in the priority assessment. Category I: Relevance Indicators The indicators of this category help to evaluate the relevance of a commodity in terms of its present and potential contribution to the CG Relevance is assessed System's goal in both absolute and relative terms. the importance of from four distinct, yet complementary points of view: the importance of the commodity in the pro: the commodity in the diet; the relevance of the commodity to specific target groups; duction system; and the relevance of the commodity in terms of concerns for food security and food self-sufficiency. 120 Indicators are provided for each of the four perspectives. They set up the basic points for consideration in formulating priority rankings under the broad category of relevance. When used together, they provide a comprehensive basis for analysis and evaluation of commodities in terms of each of the four perspectives and, when aggregated again, in terms of the larger issue of relevance to the CG System goal. (a) Importance of the commodity in the diet This first set of indicators is directly related to the CG System goal of improving the welfare of low-income people by increasing food production and availability. Four indicators are used to capture the salient information on how nutrCtiona1 needs are met by the contributions of the various commodities under consideration. Calorie and protein contribution to the diet provides a means of comparing and evaluating the importance of commodities in terms of basic consumption criteria. The indicator is quantifiable and is expressed on both regional and global levels. Calorie contributions by commodity are presented in Table 7. Protein contributions, corrected by amino-acid content, are given in Table 8. Commodities are ranked hy calorie and protein contribution, respectively, in Tables 9 & 10. The projected calorie contributions by commodity for the year 2000 are given in Table 4. The indicator expresses the nutritional contribution of the commodity to diet and consumption patterns, and is an approximation of demand. Its advantage is that it eschews the bias of purchasing power and unequal distribution of income manifest in prices. On the other hand, it must be remembered that it does not adequately express food preferences: people buy commodities, not calories or proteins. Additional nutritional aspects of foods, such as fats, vitamins dietary contribuand minerals, must also be considered when assessing tion. Whenlacking from the diet, they also can cause severe malnourishment. Quantified data are not presented for this indicator, but it IS used to ensure that these nutritional aspects, in addition to calorie and protein contribution, are taken into account during the assessment process. A commodity which is known to be a primary source of vitamin A in the diet of a large number of people, Ear example, would gain additional importance. i.e. its ability to be stored, Utilization aspects of a commodity, are also important as an indicator transported, processed and converted, This indicator refers to the of the dietary contribution of a commodity. It is availability of a commodity both temporally and spatially. especially relevant to the consumption needs of urban populations dependent on foods imported from rural areas, and to those of rural populations who are subjected to seasonal hunger. (b) Importance of the commodity in the production system The importance of a commodity cannot be assessed only in terms of consumption. Its contribution to production must also be considered. This set of indicators views the importance of the commodity from the alternative perspective of supply and, thus, complements the considerwhich are more an expression of need and ations of dietary contribution, 121 demand. relevance point of A set of six fnterrelated of a commodity to the production. indicators are used to assess the CG System goal from the broad vantage Value of production tance of commodities. It enhanced economic welfare increased food production employment generation. provides an estimate of the economic importhus relates directly to the CG System goal for people in developing countries through and,availability, and through income and of The indicator expresses the contribution of each commodity as a share of the total value of agricultural production on a regional and global basis. Table 12 gives the 1979-81 values as a share of total regional and global value of production, and Table 13 ranks commodities by their value of production in the regions where they are produced. Table 19 gives the projected value shares for 2000. World market prices, which avoid distortions from national pricing policies, are used to provide a more realistic basis for comparCson among commodities and regions. This indicator is also useful because it emphasizes those crops which are important both as subsistence crops and cash crops. Furthermore, although it combines elements of. both supply and demand, it gives an approximation of the consumption needs and desires of people as expressed through their economic hehaviour. The indicator has two limiwhich should be taken into account when interpreting tations, however, the data for priority assessment: it undervalues poor peoples’ foods .because it does not account for ,inequality in income distribution and purchasing power; and it reflects only the value of the primary product of the commodity and, thus, underrates multipurpose commodities. Table allocation, 11 compares the relative ranking calorie and protein contribution, of commodities and value of by CG System production. Contribution to sustainability is an important indicator reflecting the commitment of the CG System to developing long-term sustainable Commodities which benefit or improve the resource base food production. for production take on an importance beyond that of dietary and economic Examples are legumes which enhance fertility through contribution. or crop by-products which animals which supply manure, nitrogen fixation, improve soil conditions. The multiple purpose indicator captures the additional value generated by commodities with multiple products or multiple functions ‘Jo quantified data are provided; it is within the production system. presented as a key point for consideration to compensate for the shortcomings of the indicator for value of production. AddCtional products for use or trade include, for example, fuelwood, building materials, or hides from animals. This indicator also draws attention to those commodities whose primary or secondary products Contribution to livestock feed serve as Inputs to the production system. and energy are of particular importance in light of projected trends in Contribution to energy should be agriculture in developing countries. as generating energy and as reducing the need thought of in two ways: for energy inputs. 122 Area harvested indicates the importance of a commodity in the production system through the amount of land resources allocated to it (Table 14). It can be used for comparisons within commodity groups but not across commodity groups, since the land requirements of different crops vary so widely. Agroecological suitability of a commodity indicates its ability to be used in diverse production systems. Breadth and flexibility in adaptability are desirable characteristics with respect to the CG System At the same time, however, goal. this indicator also captures important regional considerations. Commodities which are limited in adaptation to specific agroecological zones, but are uniquely productive in those take on an additional importance. zones, For example, rice is important to the CG System because it can be grown in diverse environments. But millet is also important for its productivity in those difficult environment of the semi-arid tropics where other crops cannot be grown without irrigation. (cl Relevance to target groups While all of the commodities included in the CG System are relevant to low-income peoples in that they are basic foodstuffs, this set of indicators captures many of the additional concerns addressed in the CG System program approach of analysis of human nutrition linkages. It draws attention to equity concerns and the relative value of commodities to distinct target groups, such as producers vs. consumers, rural vs. urban populations, nursing women and children vs. adult males. It also highlights for consideration those commodities which are particularly important in the diets of the very poor and malnourished. Income/employment generation relates to the objective of improved welfare resulting from the economic opportunities and increased earnings generated by the production of a commodity. It captures the important consumption and nutritional linkages among income, purchasing power, well-being. The indicator brings several important considerations to the It emphasizes the additional income process of establishing priorities. benefits to producers from food commodities which are also valuable cash It also draws attention to the potential value of increasing crops. employment opportunities either in .actual production or in post-harvest This has particular relevance for rural people who depend on industries. earnings from wage labour in agriculture to meet basic needs; examples Table 17 provides supportand women in many regions. are the landless, ing data on labour use in commodity production by region. Assumptions about rural underemployment and labour availability in all regions should be cautioned against, however. Nutritional expected to benefit information have the region as the economic information agricultural GDP found in Table 2. determined using factors refer to the number of poor and malnourished Two sources of from Improvement in the commodity. to be consulted when considering this indicator. Using the relevant demographic and sociounit of analysis, on population density, population growth rate, and numbers of poor and malnourished can be per capita, The important commodities in each region can be Tables 7, 8, 9 and 10. 123 The a critical protein; groups, indicator also draws attention role in the diets of the poor, or those which meet the specific such as women or children. gaps in demand and availability to those commodities such as plant sources nutritional needs of that play of targetted Cd) Future Two indicators, one applied the micro-level, are used to guide commodities to emerging needs and countries. at the macro-level and the other at consideration of the relevance of future demands for food.in developing Self-sufficiency indicates present and future gaps in supply and demand for commodities-on a regional level. Supporting data by commodity and region for this indicator are presented in the attached Annex Tables. Table ,I5 gives data on production levels: Tables 16 and 18 indicate past and projected future trends in production: Table 20 provides data on past consumption trends: and Table 3 gives the projected demand for commodities on both global and regional levels. Table 21 summarizes the data to indicate the projected degree of self-sufficiency in developing-country regions by commodity. I Because most countries desire food self-sufficiency to avoid political dependence and drain on hard currency, the existence of gaps in production and demand for a commodity can have various implications for setting research priorities. Such gaps may indicate the need for research to remove policy or technological constraints to production. On the other hand, it may reflect a comparative disadvantage for local production, with the implication that international trade may be the most efficient means of providing the region with the commodity. The general rule of thumb is that a widening gap indicates the need for analysis. A shortcoming of this indicator tradable goods (roots, tubers, and to the gap between production and demand is that it some extent, is determined is biased against nonfood legumes) since by levels of imports. Food security is an indicator of gaps in nutritional need and food 'availability for targetted groups, focussing in particular on the malnourished. The indicator is used on a more micro-level to evaluate commodities in terms of such issues as equity in access to foods, elimination of seasonal hunger, and prevention stability of food supply, Table 2, which presents data on or alleviation oE famine conditions. population growth rates, population densities, and numbers of poor and Principal malnourished, should be used when considering this indicator. food commodities and insurance crops in those regions where population pressure on resources is expected to be critical in the future will take on additional importance with this indicator. Category II: Research-Productivity Indicators The second area for consideration in setting priorities among commodities for CG System efforts centers on the assessment of the potential for research to improve productivity of designated commodities; that is, determining whether research is the appropriate vehicle for improving productivity in the commodity. Since research is the primary 124 means by which the potential productivity priority ranking. CG System attains of that means its goal, the assessment of the must be a fundamental concern in TAC has designated ffve basic areas for consideration: researchabtlity; research opportunities; research history; the potential for breakthrough: and the time frame for results. These are discussed below with the specffic indicators that are appropriate to the issue. (a) Researchability This indicator focusses on the basic, but decisive issue of whether progress in commodity production/productivity fs limited by lack of knowledge and/or technology which can be addressed through research. The second point for consideration is whether the necessary means to conduct the research exist. The indicator refers both to the possibilities for enhancing the quantity or quality of a commodity for consumption through research, as well as to the possibflities for improving a commodity's contribution to the production system. The basic question IS whether research (of the CC System type) is the best means to address the problems of improvement with respect to this commodity. (b) research Research opportunities seven indicators for a commodity. to evaluate the extent of TAC has employed opportunities Extent of genetic It refers to the potential which has plant breeding, diversity of a commodity for attainCng commodity proven so successful in is a key indicator. improvement through the past. Yield levels (Table 22) and yield trends (Table 23) of a commodity in diff,erent agro-ecological regions provide a good indication of the The range in yields within an potential for improving productivity. agro-ecological region reveals the gap between current and potential yields. Caution must be exercised in interpreting this data, however, as differences among national policies towards a commodity may account for Evaluations of differences in yields within an agroecological zone. potential yield gains should also be based on results from experi.ment stations and on the expert judgement of scientists working with the commodity. Yield trends within a region also give an indication and commitment to the and producers' interest in, ments' such trends often reflect the degree to which production intensified. of governcommodity, since has been Yield stability and defense of current yield levels is listed as a separate indicator to draw attention to the possibilities for improving a commodity through enhanced yield stability (eg. through increased drought tolerance) or through the defense of current yields against erosion by This is a measure of productivity over time. Yield pests and disease. stability is a factor of considerable importance to many small farmers who do not have the resource base to tolerate moderate or high levels of risk in the production of basic food commodities. 125 Potential agroecological amplitude indicates the potential adaptability of the commodity to diverse agroecological zones. It is thus a measure of the breadth of impact of research results. It is also a good indicator of the comparative advantage among crops of similar nature (e.g. of one legume over another). Unexploited areas known research opportunities commodity is lacking. for --research and the is a measure of the breadth of degree to which research on a Scope of application of potential research results is an indicator --of the relevance of research in terms of actual demand for improvement of the designated commodity. The indicator compensates for the bias in those indicators used previously in this set. Rather than evaluating research opportunities in terms of the potential for improvement in the commodity, it evaluates them in terms of the breadth of their potential impact or applicability. The indicator forces consideration of the degree to which mechanisms are currently or potentially available to channel research results to farmers for application. This refers primarily to the extent of interest in commodity improvement demonstrated by the national agricultural research systems - the primary clients of the CG System - and their capacity to use and disseminate the potential technology. It also encompasses the issues of external policy or institutional constraints to technology adoption. Estimated returns to proposed research is an indicator opportunity which integrates the estimation of the likelihood and the scope of potential impact, with calculations of the research effort. of research for success costs of the (cl Research History This indicator evaluates potential research productivity in terms of the current state of knowledge and previous research experience with It can be interpreted in various ways for priority the commodity. as with many tropical crops, would assessment. Lack of research history, but a long research history indicate a high priority for future research; which demonstrated the potential for future gains might indicate a high On the other hand, a substantial research effort in priority as well. the past which produced few results would generally indicate limited potential productivity for any additional efforts. Cd) Potential for breakthrough indicators reflects for consideration the the dynamic potential nature of the research impact of research This process and in progress. set of includes should their Technologies in the pipeline be included in the assessment potential impact. related process to specific commodities and evaluated in terms of could Emerging new knowledge or techniques from basic research lead to.new frontiers in strategic and applied commodity which research 126 in the CG System breakthrough. are also an important indicator of potential for k> Time frame Estimations of research productivity should be evaluated in terms of the time frame for expected results. This is an expression of both risk and relevance. Strong research potential in the long term may lose some relevance with respect to the CG System goal if the problem the research addresses is an urgent need for which a solution must be found in the short term. Category III: Indicators Undertaking Research of the Efficiency of the CG System in The final set of considerations for priority setting among commodities in the CG System relates to efficiency. The indicators in this category help to determine first, if the CG System is the most appropriate member of the global research system to carry out the research on the and second, commodity; the appropriate nature of its involvement, level of operations, and resource commitment. Four basic points for consideratiOll are: the international character of the commodity or research the comparative advantage of the CG System with respect to the problem; the degree of involvement or complementary activities of other research; members of the global system: and the cost-effectiveness of the research The indicators assembled to assist in the assessment of each venture. issue are described below. (a) The international character of the commodity or research problem The CG System is designed to pursue agricultural research that is international in scope and in potential impact. To maximize efficiency, therefore, commodity improvement research selected for the CG System must conform to these basic criteria. Two indicators have been selected to address this issue. Data on contribution to diet, value of production, on regional and global harvested area, and volume of production - all levels - provide useful supporting information for both indicators (Tables 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14 and 15). The need for a supra-national effort is a decisive indicator of efficiency for CG System research efforts.It refers to the number of countries potentially benefitting from the commodity improvement It is also manifest in research on major constraints to proresearch. Because the zones comprise more than duction in agroecological zones. it is generally more efficient for the CG System, rather one country, than the national systems, to conduct the research; or, at least, to coordinate and backstop national research efforts, as in some networks, for example. The transferability of potential technology across regions, national boundaries and culture areas is a related indicator that refers specifically to the ability to apply or adapt the potential results of This indicator the CG System's commodity research on a broad level. ‘emphasizes that it is not generally efficient for the CG System to undertake highly location-specific research. , 127 (b) The comparative advantage research on the commodity of the CG system with respect to For maximum efficiency, commodity research carried out by the CG System should 'reflect its comparative advantage. To assist in this determination, TAC has selected four indicators. These are: the need for A concentrated interdisciplinary research effort: the need for research at the strategic or applied level; the need for continuity and stability of effort; and the need for access to characterized germplasm. (cl Complementarity research system of efforts with other members of the global This consideration is System is the most efficient proposed commodity research. this evaluation. important in determining whether the CG member of the global system to undertake the. Several indicators are used by TAC to make The strength of national agricultural research systems is a critical indicator of the need for CG System involvement in research on a specific commodity. The natfonal agricultural research systems are both The CG System research collaborators with, and clients of the CG System. efforts should first respond to expressed needs and, second, complement the efforts of the national systems. These two considerations should be primary determinants of the nature and extent of the involvement of the CG System in the proposed research. The inability of national systems to undertake the necessary research themselves is a clear indication that the CC System should assume lead responsibility. Alternatively, when the national systems are strong in research on a particular commodity, the CG System can work in partnership with them. The Centers can move from applied to more strategic research with full confidence that the national system will be able to use the results of the research on an applied and adaptive level. However, when national research systems cannot effectively utilize the then it would probably not be efficient for the results of the research, CG System to expend further effort and resources in the research activity. The available data on national systems, which generally cover do not reflect sufficiently the aggregate manpower and budget size, complexity of the factors determining the capacities or strengths of such data provide no indication of managethose systems. In particular, have not been used as a quantitative ment capabilities and, therefore, indicator in this analysis. The activities of other agencies and research centers must also be -Clearly, duplication in taken into account when evaluating efficiency. when research or support activities efforts should be avoided. However, - such as technical assistance, for example - are complementary, the efficiency of the CG System's,efEorts will increase through effective cooperation. Linkages with basic research is an indicator of efficiency because much ofthe research of the CG System is at the strategic and applied needs to be supported by basic research. The levels and, thus, , 128 availability institutions be considered of relevant knowledge, techniques of basic research in the private in the assessment process. and backstopping and public sectors from should related division effectively The potential for institutional cooperation/collaboration is a fndicator emphasizing the efficiency that can be attained with of labour among members of the global research system which exploits the members' respective comparative advantages. Cost-effectiveness a Cd) This is a standard measure of efficiency in resource allocation. Recognizing that it is possible only to estimate the cost-effectiveness of those research activities whose results are not fully predictable, TAC They are: has assembled four indicators to assist in the approximation. the current resource allocatton within the CG System: the level of resources allocated to the commodity by others; the returns to past investment; and the expected payoff to the same or increased efforts. The information for precisely (see Table two can be estimated the first two indicators S for data on the first only. can be calcuLated indicator); the quite latter Application of indicatorsto assessment of commodity priorities TAC has used the indicators described above to systematically determine commodity priorities in the CG System and to structure its informed judgement on recommendations for resource allocations among commodities. TAC's categories: recommendations on commodities fall into one of four - commodities ten years at which should the current, receive higher support or lower at for the level; a low next - commodities which should part of a larger global - commodities which should be supported endeavour; be phased out; level as or - commodities which have been considered but are not recommended for support through the CG System due to currently limited financial resources. The indicators are employed assessment of each commodity that of the Technical Annex (Part 3). in is the detailed presented in review and the following priority section 129 TECHNICAL ANNEX: PART 3 Commodity Review CEREALS Rice Globally, rice is the most important crop in terms of bontribution to diet and value of production. Of the 145 M ha harvested globally, more than 137 M ha are in developing countries. Asia is the priaCCOUntiIlg for 91%.of production in developing countries. mary producer, Latin America accounts for 4%. North Africa/Near East for 3X, and SubSaharan African for less than 2%. Rice produces the ma,jor source of protein and calories for, an estimated 1,500 M low-income people in Asia and is a major constituent of the diet of large numhers of low-income people in Humid West Africa, Equatorial Africa and Tropical South In South Asia, its contribution to hoth caloric and protein America. intake is almost 70%. Rice production increased in varying degrees in all developingcountry regions during the 197Os, with an overall average of 2.7% annually. About two thirds of the increase can be attributed to the higher yield levels in irrigated rice in Asia which were attained through the widespread adoption of the technological package of highyielding varieties, fertilizer and irrigation. Production increases in Latin American regions resulted largely from the spread of new variwhile in Africa ,and North Africa/Near East, they resulted from an eties; increase in the area under production rather than from increased yields. If past trends in demand continue, world rice production will While Asia has achieved need to increase 60% by the end of the century. marginal self-sufficiency in production for the present, further Cncreases through higher yields or increased cropping intensity will be In Sub-Saharan Africa, necessary to keep pace with population growth. the rate of increase in demand is outstripespecially in West Africa, leading to a rapid rise in ping population growth and production, imports. Projected d.emands are also high ,in Latin America .and North Africa/Near East. These escalating demand levels will require a concerted research effort to continue the development of improved technologies for production. The impact of new technology has been primarily confined to irrigated areas - which make up slightly more than 50% of the world's harResearch must be vested rice area - and to favourable rainfed areas. maintained in these areas to protect and build on what has already been achieved. However, If rising demands are to he met, other rice growing shallow rainfed These include: systems will have to receive attention. which accounts for almost 25% of the harvested area in Asia; deeprice, which accounts for about 13% of the Asian water and floating rice, 130 harvested area and which accounts for that of Sub-Saharan some of the Sub-Saharan African; and dryland rice, 75% of the Latin American harvested area and 50% of Africa. in Rice research within the CG System received USS 23.603 million 1983, regionally distrihuted as: Asia 55%. Sub-Saharan Afrfca 32%, Latin America 10% and North Africa/Near East 3%. This is substantially greater than for any other commodity and represents more than 25% of System’s total allocations to commodity research. the The role of’rice as the most important staple food crop in developing countries, especially in densely populated Asia, and its importance as a cash crop for many small-scale farmers, have iustified this concentration of effort. For the future, however, TAC recommends that the overall effort for ri.ce be reduced, beginning in the near term, and that the shift in research emphasis he reinforced. TAC considers that the CG System’s future efforts in rice should concentrate more on non-irrigated systems, and in basic research on irrigated rice in collaboration with specialized institutions. These recommendations reflect the successes that have already been achieved in rice research, especially in the more favourable environments. approximately 60% of the rice lands of develop‘Today, ing-country regions are planted in high-yielding modern varieties. Furthermore, CG System collaboration in rice research has significantly strengthened many of the national systems, allowing them to assume an increasingly larger share of the responsibility for research. This is particularly true of some of the largest rice producing countries, e.g. India, Thailand, Philippines, Bangladesh, China and Korea. Non-irrigated rice systems comprise al.most half the global area under rice production. The production constraints of these systems are more complex than those of irrigated rice because of a lack of control in water management and a more limited knowledge base for research. The shift to dryland-rice research which has already occurred in Latin This should also occur in SubAmerica is strongly supported by TAC. Such a shift Saharan Africa, where most rice systems are non-irrigated. could also take place in Asia without increasing System support if applied and adaptive research activities in irrigated rice are transferred most of which are now strong enough to require only to national systems, backup from the CG System. The recommendation for the movement towards basic research is predicated on the belief that the exploitation of genetic diversity IS fundamental to achieving better and more stable yields, resistance to and better drought tolerance; and on the belief major pests and disease, that the System can meet the challenge of disseminating new varieties For both and technologies throughout widely heterogeneous environments. it will be necessary to develop new irrigated and non-irrigated rice, and to increase knowledge of the factors and better breeding techniques, The CG System should catalyze which determine resistance and tolerance. and support basic research in other institutes, and vlay an active role in encouraging its application in the rice production systems of developing countries. 131 FinaLly, the CG System's efforts in rice research in Sub-Saharan Africa should he. narrowed to focus more fully on those areas which demonstrate promise of success. Research efforts in Sub-Saharan Africa to date have been diffused and have not had the impact anticipated, considering that 32% of the CGIAR funds aLlocated to rice research have been spent in Sub-Saharan Africa. In recommending a narrower, but more concentrated focus on the most serious constraints to rice production in Sub-Saharan Africa, TAC recommends that research on upland rice in West Africa should be reinforced, because of the increasing demand and growing imports in most of the area. TAC considers that the reLative allocations to other regions is appropriate and should he maintained. Wheat Wheat is grown mostly on windswept prairies and steppes that are too dry or too cold for maize and rice. The two main types are bread wheat, by far the more important globally; and durum, used for making pasta'and of significance primariLy in North Africa/Near East, where it accounts For half oE the region's wheat production. Triticale, a manmade cross hetween wheat and rye, is also of interest to the CG System hecause it can he grown in harsher environments. AFter rice, wheat is the most important single food source in developing countries. Excluding rice, it contributes more calories than all other cereals combined, and in terms OF its calorie contribution to diet is the most important food crop in North Africa/Near East and Temperate South America. In 1981, developing countries accounted for 34% of world wheat production and half of the total increase in production in the 1970s. China, North Africa/Near East and India accounted Ear almost 90% of the developing-world production, and Temperate South America for 6%. Wheat production in developing countries increased by 5% annually in the 1970s. The five Largest producers - China, India, Turkey, Pakistan and Argentina - expanded production at an annual rate In the remaining developing of 5.4X, largely through yield increases. countries, the growth rate' was only 1.5%, considerably less than the average population growth of these countries. Trends in yield levels over the ten-year period varied considerably: China experienced an increase of 75%: South Asia 60%, but from a very low hase; East/South Africa 55%: North Africa/ Near East 35%: and India 25%. Improved varieties and associated technologies have had a major impact on increastng wheat production. nearly one half of the wheat lands Today, in developing-country regions are planted in modern varieties. Wheat imports by developing countries doubled in the 1970s. .indieating the high priority assigned to wheat as a food even when financing Even most of the with limited foreign exchange was a major constraint. countries that produce wheat became more reliant on imports during the Among countries consuming 100,000 tons or more annulast two decades. ally, per-capita wheat imports declined only in Turkey, India, Pakistan and Zimbabwe. Growth and urbanization. rates in consumption The correlation are closely with rising linked to rising incomes reflects incomes not only 132 greater overall food consumption, but also considerable substitution of wheat for other starchy staples. In North Africa/Near East, where wheat originated, consumption is high at all income levels and in both rural and urban areas. Other factors contributing to increased wheat consumption are the lagging production OF many staple Eoods; and food aid and pricing policies, which lower wheat prices and create a bias in Favour of wheat products. The main constraints to production are diseases, pests and environmental stress, especially drought. In North AErica/Near East, for example, where most wheat is rainfed, winter rainfall is low and erratic and crop yields are limited hy biological and envtronmental constraints as well as by management and socfoeonomic factors. Research has not addressed itself to farming in mountainous areas, except in Turkey, and these regions require winter or facultative wheats with tolerance to severe environmental stresses. Varieties with hetter cold, heat, and Salinity tolerance are required for large areas where wheat iS grown, and aluminum toxicity is a constraint to bread wheat production in large areas OE highly leached acidic soils in Latin America, Southeast China and Central Africa. The CG System’s allocation to wheat research was USS 7.648 in 1983, third (after rice and maize) among the food crops. The regional distribution was: North Africa/Near East 38%, Latin 30%, East/South Africa 13%. and the remainder to Asia. million estimated America In assessing the System’s future role in wheat research, TAC has taken into account the importance of wheat as a food crop and the increasing reliance OE developing countries on food imports. But, it has also considered the strong research programs on wheat in developed countries and the increasingly strong research capacities of national programs in Temperate South America, Turkey, India and China, as evidenced by the remarkable yield and production increases achieved during the 1970s. Moreover, a well organized international wheat trade, developing-country export capacity, and increasing demand for wheat hy countries With unfavourable environments for its production, make the The role of concept of self-sufficiency inappropriate Eor many areas. the CG System shou’ld he to provide continued support for production in areas where there are distinct research opportunities. TAC considers that the trend of the Centers concerned to transfer a number of research functions to national systems while continuing to provide them with technical support is reasonable and should be accelerated. This leads to the recommendation that the System’s.overall efforts in wheat research he gradually reduced. TAC also recommends that research concentrate on increasing proResearch including those in tropical areas. duction on marginal lands, efforts on tropical wheat should be increased in the short term for a These recommendations are hased on and then assessed. five-year period, a consideration of the dynamics of wheat demand and of the basic nature the value of working toward desired but unpreof research - that is, In connection with research for tropical areas, a dictable results. network of researchers working in conjunction with one another will he - one of which is to increase cropping required to meet the objectives intensity by enabling the cultivation of a crop in the winter season 133 when, in many tropical areas, no crop is currently grown. TAC supports the eEforts OE the center concerned in facilitating regional networks for the benefit of those countries with smaller harvested areas who are prepared to participate in regional research. A further recommendation is that through appropriate cooperation with more specialized institutions, the System move gradually into more strategic research to overcome constraints inhibiting further crop improvement. In do'ing so, it should not move into basic research, hut he concerned with the further development and application of new knowledge, brought to the point where it can be applied to specific developingcountry problems. TAC considers the present regional distribution of effort to conIn particular, form to needs. the North Africa/Near East region should continue to receive a high level of resources hecause of the importance living in very diverse environments exhihof wheat to large populations ltlng special environmental constraints. Durum wheat, which makes up 50% of the crop in the region, has received relattvely fewer resources than bread wheat. Triticale, which is grown mostly in developed countries, has considerable potential for acid soils with high concentrations of soluhle minerals and for cool highland production areas where heavy disease It can outproduce other wheats in marginal areas and pressure occurs. has an excellent potential as animal feed. A major constraint to its wide adoption has heen low test weights, impaired endosperm development, and poor flour yields. Steady progress is being made .to solve these prohlems and to secure resistance to pre-harvest sprouting. TAC recommends continuation of the work on triticale and an assessment OF progress after five years. Maize maize ranks after rice and wheat in calorie Among the food crops, sweet potato and wheat in value of produccontribution and aEter rice, Developing countries produce an estimated 35% of world production tion. from about 77 M ha. The crop is grown in all developing-country regions, and of the total for all regions, China accounts for 41%. Latin America 32X, South-East Asia 9X, East/South Africa 6%. North AErica/Near \East 5%, India 4%. and other African regions for the remainder. Where grown for human Eood, maize provides calories for the poorest of rural populations and is widely grown in mixed-cropping systems For all developing countries, annual per-capita by subsistence farmers. America (the homeland of human consumption is only 20 kg, but in Central maize) it is 80 kg, and 60 kg in East/South Africa: in some countries of both regions, per-capita human consumption is as high as 100 kg per annum. Maize provides about one third of the mean caloric intake in these regions and more than 5% in six other regions. The use of maize for cattle feed has become increasingly tant and now accounts for about 45% of consumption in developing it is the main use,,and In Temperate South America., countries. important for this purpose in the rest of Latin America and in imporit is North ,134 Africa/ Near East. In the last decade, the use of maize as feed in developfng countries grew by 5.3% per annum, and in Asia and North Africa/Near East it grew at three times the rate of direct human consumption. It grew at twice the rate of food use in Africa, but from a low base, so that feed use is still relatfvely low. During the last decade, developing countries achfeved a 22% increase in yi.eld gains. However, thfs mean figure includes China's consirlerahle gain of 50% (associated largely with the adoption of improved varieties) on one end OF the scale, and a decline of almost 15% I.n Humid West Afri.ca on the other. The variation in yields per ha is equally dramatic: more than 3 t in Temperate South America and China, just under 2 in North Africa/Near East, about 1.6 in Central and Tropical South America, about 1.5 in South and South-East Asia, abollt 1.1 fn and less than 1 in the other Afri.can East/South Africa and India, Sub-Saharan Africa achieved some increase in production during regions. the 197Os, but this was the result of an increase 11~ the area harvested. In the long term, the global pattern of use wfl.1 continue to change wCth increasing incomes and urbanization. It is estimated that although developing-country consumers will tend to spend less on maize and more on preferred foods, particularly livestock products, maize consumption will Increase because of 1ts Increasing use as feed. In the particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, this scenario low-income countries, and in the medium term the problem is likely to develop more slowly, will he one of increasing demand for maize for human consumption against For example, in the background of declining per-capita production. East/South Africa, where maize is the staple food and is grown on about production will need to be doubled by 30% of the cultivated crop area, the year 2000 if the region 1s not to be faced with increasing and Increased prodllction in Sub-Saharan massive costs for food imports. Africa will need to come mainly from increased yields. The ma1n However, the potential for increasing yields is high. constraints to increased production are envCronmenta1 stress (particularly drought), diseases and pests, and low levels of crop management. Both improved open-pollinated varieti.es and hybrids are required depending on local needs and the efficiency of national seed producers. In the lowland tropics, the development of better varieties and improved management practices relevant to farmers' needs and constraints would In Sub-Saharan Africa, contribute considerably to improved productton. management currently poses a greater constraint than does the availaIn East/South Africa, where there bility of high-yielding varieties. are extensive areas ideally suited to maize productjon, the rewards for development of an appropriate technology for small-scale farmers are In some environments with bimodal rainfall exceptionally high. patterns, short-cycle maize outperforms both sorghum and millet. In 1983, maize research recefved USS 8.498 million (second only Subregionally distributed as: to rice in allocation to food crops), Saharan Afri.ca 52%, Latin America 30X, Asia 13X, and North Africa/Near East 5%. TAC considers that the CG System's major effort in is justified and should he maintained over the long term, additional support should be given in the short to medium maize research but that some term to 135 accelerate the promising results from work in progress. The recommendati.on takes into consideration the crop’s value as food, feed and a source of income for low-income groups and small-scale farmers worlrlwide ; the projected increase in demand; and the expectatton that research can successflllly address the constraints to higher yields i.n many developing countries. The increase in funding should be linked to the implementation of the recommendattons of the External Program Review of the lead Center regarding the strengthening of‘its strategic research capacity, and to the present reorganization of maize research within the CG System. TAC recognizes the urgent and specific needs of Sub-Saharan Africa and recommends a shift of effort to those areas where maize is the staple food. The need for increased.production is urgent, and the potential for improvement is great.. TAC welcomes the proposal of the Council oE Ministers of. the 18 countries of the Lusaka MULPOC subregion to establish the Maize Research Network for Eastern and Southern Africa, whose ob,jectives will be the coordination and strengthening of national capahili.ties in maize research in the subregion. TAC considers that i.f additional resources are funnelled into East/South Africa through this network, further shifts of CG System funds to the region would probably not be necessary. TAC welcomes the initfatives the System is already taking towards strengthening maize research in Sub-Saharan Africa and encourages a As well as a continued close collohoration with the proposed network. effort directed at the problems of maize production in the tropical lowland areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, increased efforts are needed for There is a need for the higher elevation areas of East/South Africa. the System to provide germplasm that’is better adapted to arid and high elevations and to help national agricultural research systems develop The development of improved production strong agronomy programs. technology, well adapted to parttcular biologfcal and socioeconomic environments, is essential for success in raising maize production in Sub-Saharan Africa; and the work, hefng location-specifi,c, should be done by the national programs concerned. In other regions, the strength of national maize research grams is greater than in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is need for a continued strong effort in Latin Ameri.ca, in view of crop’s importance there for food and feed. prostill the a Barley Barley is grown throughout the world and is tolerant of many ~011s and climates, but like wheat is not well adapted to hot humid Its require less moisture than wheat. It does, however, conditions. most important uses are for animal feed and making malt: little is used although mean data conceal its local for human consumption as food, The CG System is not importance for food in some developing countries. concerned with research for the improvement of malting barleys. Developing countries &count for about 13% of the global producOf the area harvested in developing countries, North Africa/Near accounts for about 71%, India 11X, China 8%, Latin America 6% and tion. East 136 South-East Asia 4%. Ne’arly two thirds of the production Africa/Near East and in no other developing-world region important relative to other commodities. China accounts of production. is in North is the crop for another s as 15% In North Africa/Near East, barley is grown primarily as a feed crop and inseparable from the production of sheep and goats. It is the principal crop In areas that receive 200-300 mm rainfall and in which the main end product of the agri.cultural system is small ruminants. For such areas, it is estimated that barley provides almost half of the annual digestible energy needs of sheep. Grain, straw and stubble all provide important sources of feed at different ti.mes of the year. Yields are low, averaging 1.3 t/ha for all developing countries and 1.1 t/ha in North Africa/Near East. In the 197Os, there was a decline in the area sown in developing countries, and the modest production increase of 13% over that period was attributable to increases in yield. Although the average yield increase was 30% (China’s gain was an impressive 119%), that for North Africa/Near East was only 15%. Howsince the grain is often not the most valuable part of the crop in ever, this region, yield statlstfcs based on grain production alone underStill, in spite of a estimate the crop’s useful productfve capacity. production increase of 2.5% annually during the 197Os, the demand is not met locally: barley imports increased from about 0.5 M t annually at the beginning of the 1970s to almost ten ttmes that amount in 1982, and there is strong evidence that the demand for barley as Eeed will continue to increase rapidly. The livestock Industry accounts for almost one third of the value of agricultural production in North Africa/Near East and the increastng demand for meat ~111 mean an increased demand for barley as feed. The constraints drought), technology. to improved production are pests and diseases, and the environmental stress need for better (especially production Barley research received USS 1.707 million through the CG System The regional distribution in 1983, the lowest allocation to a cereal. North Africa/Near East 50%; Tropical South America is estimated as: 33%; and Central America 17%. TAC recommends that the overall allocation to barley research be reduced slightly, but that the effort for North Africa/Near East be The recommendastrengthened by phasSng out research for other regions. tion takes account of the relatively low importance of barley elsewhere (excluding barley grown for malt) and the strength of many agricultural research systems. The prevailing more stable management the System’s characteristics studies of of the feed pattern of future work in North Africa/Near East is set by constraints to production and the need to achieve greater and yields through the use of improved varieties and appropriate TAC supports the continuation and expansion of techniques. work, in collaboration with other institutions, on plant associated with stress tolerance, such as the current Continued account needs to be taken barley root development. value of straw as well as grain. 137 Sorghum Sorghum is'a major crop of the semi-arid tropics, where it has a special importance, wfth millet, as a staple food for mtlltons of very poor people in drought-prone, high-risk areas. Recause the, areas Ln' which it is grown are too dry to support an extensive variety of crops without irrigation, it is usually substituted by other foods when income In some places, the stalks permits. - used.as fodder and for farm bulldings, compound boundaries and thatch - are more important than the grain. Although the contribution of sorghum to diet is low In most developing-country regions, in Semi-Arid West Africa it contributes 13% of caloric intake and over 11% of protein, maklng it the second most important (after millet) of all food commodities. In India, it accounts for almost 6% of caloric intake. .In Latin America, most of the crop is used for feed. Of the area harvested in developing countries, India, the largest single producer, accounts for 41%; Semi-Arid West Africa 19%; North Africa/Near East 15%: China 7%: other African regions 6% (although mean data mask the crop's local importance for food and fodder in the drier areas): Central America,5%i and Temperate South America 5%. There is little correlation, however, between area harvested and production share because of the considerable regional variation in yields: from almost 3 t/ha in Temperate South America to 0.7 in India and 0.6 in Semi-Arid West Africa, where many national averages are even lower. In the 197Os, substantial yfeld increases were achfeved in China, Latin America and India, the last from a very low level. However, the most urgent food production problems lie in drought-prone areas, such as those of India and the Sahelian zone of Africa, where sorghum and millet The events of recent years have more than are the staple food crops. ever demonstrated the vulnerability of such areas, where the effects of a series of bad years have led to widespread hunger, mass deaths and reliance on food aid. The ma1n constraints to production in these areas are low and erratic rainfall, combined with related stress factors (marginal soils, and the low level of technology with which to reheat, sand storms), Crop stands are usually poor and a special problem is poor plant spond. Striga sp. (witchweed) cause serious emergence because of soil crusts. loss where the land is planted to successiE crops of sorghum: and bird is a serious problem throughout due to Quelea sp., damage, especially Africa. Storage pests are also aproblem. Sorghum research through the CG System received US$ 3.240 milSuh1983, estimated to have been di.stributed regionally as: Africa 67%; India 30%; and Latin America 3%. lion in Saharan TAC recommends that the current level of CG System effort on sorghum be increased immediately and that the main effort continue to be directed to Sub-Saharan Africa, where research needs and opportunfties India, China and Latin America, due to either relatively are greatest. strong national programs‘or the development of the private sector seed industry, have less need of assistance. 138 One of the objectives of this recommendation is to bring research support on sorghum (and millet) in Sub-Saharan Africa to a level comparable with that of maize, so that suitable varieties and other technologies of most value to the poorest people'can be developed as quickly as possible. Research should continue to concentrate on the constraints listed above, and the rol-e of sorghum as a valuahle source of fodder should not be overlooked. TAC strongly supports the speculative research begun on root-zone nitrogen fixation and on mycorrhizal fungi, because of the special implications that a successful outcome will have for regions where farmers are unahle to afford or risk the use of inputs. Millet -The term millet embraces a number of genera, of which pearl millet is the most important in the semi-arid tropics, where it is a staple food. Millet provides food for the poorest countries and the poorest people. It can produce under conditions too dry for sorghum and the use of the straw for fodder is complementary with livestock production and enhances its value. Because some countries combine the statistics for sorghum and millet in submitting their production returns, the data for millet tend to be overestimated, especially for Africa. However, it is estimated that the crop is harvested from about 40 M ha in developing countries, with India accounting for about 45% of that area and Semi-Arid West Africa for about 32%. It is the staple cereal in the Sahelian zone of Africa. In Semi-Arid West Africa, it contributes about one fifth of the caloric intake and protein consumption, but the inclusion of the whole of Nigeria in that region masks the importance of its dietary contribution in the very dry areas. In Niger, for example, millet provides half of the daily caloric intake and one third of the protein. Average yields are only 500 to 600 kg/ha and have remained stagnant during the last decade. Whereas the global production has dethere has been a slight increase in Semi-Arid West Africa. clined, However, unless yields are improved and stabilized, the future for food production in the semi-arid tropics will continue to look bleak. The constraints to production are environmental stress, crop establishment, and inadequate production technology. Millet research received in 1983, regionally distributed India 33%. the same as those for sorghum: pests and diseases, Striga -sp. the CG System 67%; and US$ 2.955 million through Semi-Arid West Africa as: TAC recommends that the level of effort on millet be increased with a greater concentration of effort for Subover the short term, The recommendation is based on consideration of the Saharan Africa. crop's importance in meeting the needs of the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa and India, the dependence upon it of people in the driest areas of the semi-arid tropics, the short research history, and the weak national research programs in the Sub-Saharan African millet producing countries Continuing emphasis on stabilizing crop production compared with India. 139 through the is required. establishment development of improved varieties and management practices Striga sp. control, drought tolerance, and germination in crusting soils should be areas of particular focus. and ROOTS, TUBERS AND STARCHY FOODS Cassava -____ Cassava is an important food crop in Sub-Saharan Africa and in parts of Asia and Latin America. The leaves are eaten as a .green vegetable in Sub-Saharan Africa and provide a cheap and rich source of protein. It is grown mostly by small-scale farmers, mainly under subsistence conditions, and is well suited to arid, low-fertility soils. It tolerates drought well and can be left in the ground as a food reserve for long periods. Even under stress conditions, the yield potential of the crop is large. Data on production and future demand are unreliable, mainly because the crop in Africa is not traded internationally. However, it is estimated that world production, all from developing countries, is about 122 M t from about 14 M ha - 40% of the total developing-country area of root crops. Sub-Saharan Africa contributes approximately 40% of world production, Asia about 35%, and Latin America 25% (80% of this from Brazil, the world's largest producer). In Sub-Saharan Africa, cassava is the most important root crop It is used mainly and accounts for 70% of the harvested root-crop area.' rovides a as a fresh food, or as meal or flour after processing, and 8 ma.ior source of dietary energy in countries lying within 15 of each side of the Equator. In Zaire, the largest African producer, it provides about 60% of the caloric intake and its leaves are the basic vegetable. In Asia, although it makes an important contribution to caloric intake in parts of India and in Indonesia, there are many more end-uses and all the principal producing countries have starch industries. In Thailand, it is produced largely for export as cattle feed and not used as food. In Latin America, its principal use is as food, with most of the rest used in on-farm feeding systems, mainly for swine. The mean yield in Sub-Saharan Africa is probably about 6-7 t/ha, The mean in in Latin America 9 t/ha, and-in Asia approximately 13 t/ha. Thailand is 14 t/ha. Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa have declined over the last decade, due probably to the spread of cassava mealybug and green spider mite; however, production is estimated to have increased because of an increase in the area harvested. With real income increasing slowly or not at all in most African countries, there seems Likely to be a continuing food-based demand, at least to the yedr 2000. Also, the crop has spec) ial significance as a food reserve. The demand for cassava for foodprocessing industries or for animal feed in Sub-Saharan Africa cannot be predicted at this time, but could become substantial. The main problems constraining production are those connected with post-harvest storage and processing and the lack of effective disease and pest resistance. Substantial progress has been made in the development of resistant clones, and problems in distributing breeding material within Africa 140 appear to have uses biological been solved. control for Also, a strategy the main pests, for shows pest great management, promise. which In contrast to Sub-Saharan Africa, production in South-East Asia is estimated to have increased by about 80%, with more than half of the increase resulting from Thailand's becoming an important exporter of cassava for cattle feed. Production in Thailand increased Eour- to fivefold. The market in Asia seems likely to remain healthy but, with a reduction in Thailand's exports under preferential terms to the European Community, efforts will have to he made to reduce production costs if cassava is to remain competitive. There is also a need in Asia for more high-yielding clones and improved management practices. For example, the rapid spread and repeated cropping of cassava in more marginal areas may lead to problems of soil fertility and conservation. In the highrainfall areas of Indonesia, there seems .much scope for gains by modifying the crop's place in cropping systems through the use of clones that mature earlier. Cassava production has decreased somewhat'in Latin America, where rising incomes seem Likely to resuLt in a Eurther decline in consumption. Increased production seems .tikely only if it becomes possible for producers to secure entry into the market for feedstuff commodities or secure a market for cassava as a suhstitute for cereal flours in bakery products. This will depend on government policies, and the future is uncertain. Hitherto, government subsidies on imported grain and the availability of international credit have made it difficult for cassava to compete. Cassava ranked fifth in order of funds directed to commodity through the CG System in .1983, receiving US$ 6.449 million, as: Sub-Saharan Africa 65%, Latin America 22% and Asia research distributed 13%. TAC considers that for Sub-Saharan Africa, the potential for further payoff'from research is high; that the young national cassava programs need continued support; and that the current research effort should he strengthened with emphasis on: disease and pest control, the quality of leaves as a vegetable, and the quality of the roots in In Asia, demand is buoyant and processing for food and industrial uses. national programs, though still relatively young, are strong. The main requirements from the CG System seem Likely to be improved germplasm and consultation services on technical problems, especially production agronomy. With respect to Latin America, the situation is more complex, and future demands for cassava are unclear. A worldwide market study of cassava has been commissioned to give TAC, therefore, guidance on future national and international demands. the current global effort be mainrecommends that in the short term, tained but that there be a small shift of effort from Latin America to Sub-Saharan Africa, while maintaining the current level in Asia. Firm recommendations for the longer term must await the outcome of the market study. 141 Potato value of the potato in developing counThe current and potential tries is considerable, in spite of the high cost of production. It can be grown under diverse climatic conditions (that is, tropical as well as temperate) and by small-scale farmers: its nutrient value iS high and of particular value as an LnEant weaning food; yields are high; demand is growing: and it has a high value as a cash crop. Developing countries account for about one third of world production and for about 40% of the area harvested. China is the largest proby CIP indicates ducer. New information on production in China provided that in 1980/82 China produced 56 M t annually on 4.2 M hectares (considerably more than the 15.3 M t on 1.5 M ha listed by FAO for the same period). Using the revised figures, China acounts for 62% of the developing-country production of 91 M t, while the rest of Asia accounts for 15%, Latin America 12%, North Africa/Near East 9%, and Sub-Saharan Africa 2%. Yields vary from about 8 t/ha in Sub-Saharan Africa to 13 t/ha in North Africa/Near East and Temperate South America. Over the last two decades, developing -country production has increased by 145% and by more than 170% in Asia, attributable to increases in yields and area planted. In the 60 countries with the Lowest potato production, the crop increased by about 5% annually over the last decade. In these countries potatoes occupied only 1% of the total crop area, which indicates the crop's potential for future expansion. Major constraints to increased and extended production are: the the need for acceptable varieties for specific costs of production: and the need for improved and locally conditions: diseases and pests; adapted production and post-harvest technologies for the diverse environments in which potato is grown. and plant breeding has brought Potato responds well to research, The about significant improvements in the crop in developing countries. use of wild relatives as parents in breeding programs has probably gone Scientific advances have further in potato than in any other food crop. made it possible to use wild tuber-bearing Solanum species as parents -more easily and directly than for most food crops, thereby laying the groundwork for additional improvements to benefit developing countries. Virology research in the potato has advanced greatly, and the safe moveResearch into overcoming farm and ment of germplasm is now a reality. storage problems has led to a highly successful rustic storage system Furthermore, consumer for secd'tubers, which is spreading rapidly. acceptance tests of some potato-based concentrated dried foods suitable for processing at the village level are also encouraging. Potato ranked fifth in order of funds directed to commodity research through the CG System in 1983, and second to cassava among the The allocation was US$ 5.214 million, distributed as: Latin root crops. America 37%, Asia 29%, Sub-Sahara4 Africa 25%;and North Africa/Near East 9%. TAC considers that this Level of support is appropriate and should continue, at least in the short to medium term, given the short research history devoted to potato for tropical regions, the nutritional and economic value of the crop in developing countries, and the , 142 likelihood of good results from conti.nuing efforts to address the constraints listed above. The present program is highly decentralized and the regional allocation of e,ffort is appropriate. Custody of the World Potato Collection gives the CG System a special advantage in potato breeding and, TAC believes, an accompanying obligation to developing countries to fully exploit th-ls resource. Cons-fstent with the suggestion of the Center responsible, TAC further recommends that support in the medium to long term be reduced in the face of the strong national programs which are emerging and the spill-over from research in developed countries. Yam A crop of the humId and sub-humid tropics, yam is a Eavoured food in Africa and the Pacific and Caribbean islands. More than 90% of the global area under yam cultivation is in Sub-Saharan Africa, where it accounts for about 21% of the area cultivated with root crops in the continent's root-crop belt. Yam makes major contributions to energy and in the forest zone of West Africa: is a staple food millions of small-scale farmers in densely populated employment in transportation and sales at urban and West Africa, the white yam - _---Dioscorea rotundata -and the one that has received most attention by the protetn requirements and cash crop for areas: and provides rural markets. In is the most prized CG System. Because yam is a preferred food and a food-security crop in some African cultures, it is less likely than cassava, sweet potato and cocoyam to be replaced by other foods as incomes increase. In most African population increases should lead to increased yam-growing countries, demand and the probability of large local deficits of production. The most important constraint to future production is cost. Productlon. is carried out mainly with hand tools, and labour demands are Also, high for planting, weeding, stak-ing and harvest. the cost of 20-30X of the previous harvest. In Suhplanting material is high: Saharan Africa, yields go up to 10 t/ha gross (7-8 t/ha net after Diseases threaten production and the allowing for planting material). TAC considers that future research efforts should shelf life is short. continue to concentrate on these constraints. International research efforts on yam are fairly recent and small, but results are promising. Within the CG System, non-stake lines capable of producing 20 t/ha have been produced and new techniques for the production of planting materials should reduce the drain on stored roots. These techniques have already led to a small seed-yam production Research has also found ways to industry among yam growers in Nigeria. initiate flowering, thereby allowing plant breeding to begin. In 1983, the CG System's allocation to yam research, all for SubSaharan Africa, was US$ 416,000, whfch is small in relation to the value of yam production in the regions of its highest production. The research has initiated the development of new and active national which will need continuing support. programs, 143 TAC recommends, therefore, that the CG System’s research effort be increased to a level adequate to make a rapid and effective impact on production and post-harvest problems. Although research should continue to be focussed in Sub-Saharan Africa, its applicahClity to other parts of the world - parti.cularly Asia and the island natCons where yam is grown - should not be overlooked. TAC views the increased efEorts recommended for yam as a short-term thrust to determIne if the apparent research breakthroughs in methods of seed propagation and the development of varfeties which do not require staking can make the,antScipated impact on production in farmers’ fields. TAC recommends that the productivity of this research be evaluated after five years. Sweet --I Potato Sweet potato was introduced some centuries ago from Tropical America and the Caribbean to AEri.ca and Asia, where it is now widely grown as a staple food. It is well adapted to moist tropical lowlands and produces well under low-input conditions. Depending on variety, the crop can be harvested in 3-6 months. It fits well into the multiplecropping systems of Asia. The protein content oE the roots is marginally greater than cassava and about half that of potato and yam. Where It is grown, sweet potato provides large shares of calories, protein and vitamin A to the diet of the poor. The green leaves, when eaten as a leafy vegetable, provide additional protein, vitamins and minerals. Production costs and labour input are low in terms of yield and calories produced. Of the area harvested in developing countries, which account for Asia 91%, Suhmost of the global production, the proportions are: Saharan AErica 6%, and Latin America 3%. China dominates world QrOduction and produces about 88% of developing-country output, South-East Asia about 5%, and Equatorial Africa 2%. The crop is an important part of the diet in China, where it contributes 11% of the caloric intake and 5% of protein (and where about 11% is also used as feed); and in Equatorial Africa, where it provides 4.5% of calories and 2.6% of protein. However, regional means conceal its local Importance as a staple caloric source for other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and many Caribbean and Pacific islands. The demand for sweet potato is increasing in Africa, especially in Equatorial, East/South and Semi-Arid West Africa, where the harvested area is small. Production is estimated to have increased by a quarter in the last decade and is now higher than that of Latin America, where it has declined. In Asia, production decreased in India and the Korean but increased in. the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Republic, There is evidence from Asia and the Pacific that the use of the crop as while feed and industr’ial uses increase. food decreases as incomes rise, This trend has been considered in formulating breeding policy for sweet it is expected that demand for this crop as a potato at AVRDC. However, food is likely to increase there until the year 2000; also, the possibility of using it for feed on small farms and for carbohydrate processing would increase demand. Although potential yields in Africa average only 6 t/ha, the crop’s has been demonstrated by the CG System’s research highin yield 144 Sub-Saharan Africa, which has led to varieties that can produce more than 40 t/ha in four months when grown in the wet season. Similar results have been obtained from the new AVRDC varieties. Pests and diseases, such as the sweet potato weevil, stemborer, viruses and mycoplasma-like organisms, are ma.ior production constraints. Also, unlike cassava, the crop cannot be stored in the ground heyond maturity , as it sprouts easily and is subject to pest attacks. Nor does it store well once lifted, though there is some preserving through slicing and drying; The CG System’s funding allocation US$ 393,000, all directed to research for to sweet potato in Sub-Saharan Africa. 1983 was TAC considers sweet potato to be a neglected crop and recommends that the research eEfort be increased substantially to ensure effective results. The crop’s high value; excellent food quality; high yield per hectare ; potential use as feed in small-scale, crop/livestock systems; and short, but highly productive research history, all indicate that future gains through research can be expected. Its place in the potential development of foodand feed-processing technologies could make it TAC therefore rea highly valuable cash crop and employment generator. commends that production and post-harvest research on the crop increase at the international level, in collaboration wl.th institutions with special expertise and experience. Since AVRDC has a highly successful, ongoing research program in sweet potato, TAC considers that collaborative efforts with this center a need for collaboration with should be encouraged. There is, however, other centers to ensure adequate attention for Sub-Saharan Afr-Lca and Latin America. In this connection, it should be noted that breeding material comes principally from Latin America and the Pacific. Cocoyam --Cocoyam is grown throughout the wet tropics, and is important in Of the two main cultivated genera, the tropical forest areas of Africa. Colocasia (which originated in South-East Asia), is being displaced by ?&thosoma (from tropical America) because of the latter’s preferred -__-better yields and greater resistance to diseases and pests. taste, Reliable data on production and the area cultivated are difficult to obtain, but a few West African countries account Ear most production; The crop is Nigeria alone accounts for about 40% of the global output. also grown extensively in its centers of origin and in the Caribbean and Pacific islands. In the forest areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, cocoyam It is easily digested, making contributes about 4% of dietary energy. and its leaves have a digestible protein content it a good infant food, It fits well into cropping systems because of about 12% of dry matter. of its low labour demands and the time of harvest, which coincides with Constraints to production are low periods of relative food shortage. yields, and losses through field diseases and post-harvest deterioration. 145 System, In 1983, cocoyam research received USS 89,000 all in support of work in West Africa. through the CG In formulating priori'ty recommendations, TAC recognizes the value of cocoyam as a preferred food and cash crop in the West African forest zone, as well as its importance'in cropping systems. It is also recognized that the crop receives little research priority in the region, although there is potential for improving yield and for the development of disease-free materials with better post-harvest qualities. The discovery of how to induce flowering by spraying with gibberellic acid has, for example, opened the way to the exploitation of existing variability. Nevertheless, TAC also cocoyam is limited (of the 20 1983, it ranked 18th in value and that yam is the preEerred cocoyam is important. Following fort, TAC therefore recommends cocoyam be phased out to allow considers that the global importance of food crops researched by the CG System in of production and contribution to diet); root crop in those regions of Africa where the principle of concentration of efthat the CC System's small effort on greater attention to.other root crops. Starchy Banana ---banana is used cooked before to describe consumption; In this context, the term starchy that are usually those -Musa SQ. and clones included are cooking bananas and plantain. Starchy banana is an important and cheap carbohydrate food for millions of people in the humid lowland tropics. It is grown mainly by subsistence farmers and most consumption is local, although there is a growing, but small export trade in plantain from the Caribbean and Latin Amerfca to Europe and North America. All but 2% of the world countries. production of -Musa sp. comes from developing The form of statistical returns makes apportioning into banana types dubious, but it is estimated that dessert bananas entering world trade account for about 12% of production: much of the balance is plantain and cooking bananas. starchy hanana is important primarFor its caloric contribution, Annual per-capita consumption ily in Equatorial and Humid West Africa. varies considerably: from 30-40 kg in Central America to more than 200 kg in Uganda and the West African forest zone. Because it can be prepared quickly and easily, it is a preferred convenience food in both and consumption could increase as income in urban and rural areas, However, it is highly perishable and consumption cities Increases. local shortages can occur even in tends to be higher in rural areas: During the 197Os, production cities close to areas of production. increased steadily but demand increases were higher, and demand is expected to continue to exceed production through to the year 2000. Public and private sector research has focussed on the production while starchy banana has for export of dessert bananas on plantations, received little attention. A marked contrast exists between the intensive and sophisticated management of the plantation banana (whether by large-scale or small-scale commercial producers), and the low-input The relative systems of the.small-scale producers of starchy banana. importance of diseases and pests in starchy banana is yet to be 146 determined, attention. with age, matter at and management and storage problems have received little A special problem of plantain is the rapid decline in yield apparently related to the lack of accumulation of organic the base of the plant. The CG System's research effort has been concentrated in the regionwhere the crop has its highest dietary significance. The work has focussed on the crop's role in the cropping systems of the humid and in this context some screening for potentially suitable tropics, materials is being undertaken. Breeding has not been undertaken because of Its complexity. The CG System's all for Equatorial support to starchy banana and Humid West Africa. was US$ 656,000 in 1983, TAC recommends that the System increase its eEEorts in SubSaharan Africa in collaboration with those of INIBAP, which was recently established to address the increasing threat of diseases to cultivated Musa sp. and to safeguard valuable germplasm collections. TAC supports -the System's involvement as a partner (but with no leadership role) in those network activities, organized and coordinated by INTBAP, which are related to starchy banana. A major research effort is justified, the importance of starchy banana as a food and cash crop considering: and as a component of farming systems throughout the humid tropics; the the need to.develop new and more efficient upward trend in demand; and the need to find economic solutions to the production systems; transportation and processing. problems of storage, TAC continues to take the position that the System should not become involved in breeding work in starchy banana but continue to focus on evaluation and testing, and on agronomic and cultural practices, including pest management. FOOD LEGUMES Chickpea -originating in the Eastern Mediterranean/Near East, is Chickpea, where it is used whole, dehulled or a crop of warm, semi-arid climates, as a flour. The immature pods, shoots and seed may be used as vegetaThe small-seeded desi types, which account for about 85% of world bles. are grown on the Asian subcontinent, in Ethiopia and in production, parts of Afghanistan and Iran. The large-seeded kabuli types are grown Mexico, and to some extent on the Indian in the Mediterranean region, All but a small fraction of world production comes from subcontinent. in areas with erratic rainfall, it is grown developing countries, where, It receives few or no on small-scale farms as a food and cash crop. inputs other than labour and seed. chickpea is an important dietary Where grown on a large scale, item: the protein content is 19.4% of the seed - about three times that The main pulse crop in India and the main of milled, polished rice. it contributes an estimated 5.2% of the protein source after cereals, In North Africa/Near East, where it is also the dietary protein supply. the mean protein contribution is 1.2%. most important pulse, 147 The average yield for all developing countries is about 600 kg/ ha, but the Central American yield is almost twice that: and expersments in India with Limited irrigation have produced yields five times the developing-world average. Globally the area harvested has remained stable and, in most regions, changes in yield and production reflect climatic factors. Although there has been a significant increase in the Central American crop yield, there has been a substantial drop in Pakistan's yield levels, related probably to recent attacks of Ascochyta blight. Consumption has followed production and it is expected that demand will increase with population in India, which currently faces a deficit in pulse production: and in North Africa/Near East, where chickpea is liked by all income groups. Constraints to production are the low yields of local varieties, variability in yield due to environmental stresses, diseases, pests (notably bruchids), and poor standards of crop management,. A major research effort, although only recent, has already produced significant results. The development of varieties with resistance to Ascochyta blight and cold, permit winter sowing (and doubling of production)in the low-elevation areas of the Mediterranean region, where spring sowing is traditional. Higher-yielding, diseaseand pest-resistant lines are becoming available to breeders in India and elsewhere and new, more effective strains of rhizobia have been identified which, on inoculation to chickpea, lead to considerable increases in seed yields. In 1983, chickpea research received US$ 1.382 million the CG System, allocated as: India 55%, (but other parts of included), and North Africa/Near East 45%. through Asia are .TAC recommends that the current overall level of resource allocation be maintained, but with a shift of effort to North Africa/Near East and East/South Africa. However, the Centers concerned should retain their respective roles and relationships with respect to the types of chickpea for which they are responsible. In North Africa/Near East, support is low in terms of the crop's dietary contribution, its value of production, the high proportion of harvested area devoted to it, the production problems which have yet to be resolved, and the weaker national programs compared to India. Research should continue to be directed at increasing productivity and yield stability through varietal improvement and the development of betTAC encourages the Center concerned to conter production technology. duct research directed at introducing and/or expanding production of the desi type in suitable agroecological regions of eastern Africa. In transferred continuing programs. spite of the shift to the national need for suitable in focus from India as responsibilities national scientists will have program, parental materials for their breeding are a Cowpea -Africa Cowpea and to is widely a lesser grown extent in in the semi-arid Asia and Latin to sub-humid regions of It is usually America. 148 used as mature seed but can be eaten as green pods and used as fodder; in South-East Asia, it is consumed largely as a green vegetable. It can be grown successfully on poor, acid Soils and has the ability to nodulate with a wide range of rhizobia, contributing satfsfactory amounts of nitrogen to the soil. As a short-duration crop it can be fitted readily into diverse cropping systems and has a valuable role in soil conservation. There is a potential for the crop in African rice fallows and considerable Asian interest in its potential to fit intd those ricebased cropping systems where a short-maturity legume is required. Different types of cowpea have very different day-length requirements. Cowpea is grown usually by subsistence farmers and in mixtures with maize, sorghum, millet and cassava. The most important pulse in tropical Africa; it is grown in a broad belt along the southern border of the Sahara, and in East Africa from Ethiopia to the Republic of South Africa. Although data on the crop's production are incomplete because the crop is often counted in the returns for other legumes,,it is estimated that Semi-Arid West Africa produces about 89% of the developingcountry harvest. However, the crop is locally important in diverse areas such as-the Caribbean islands, Brazil, PDR Yemen, the Indian subcontinent and South-East Asia. The dry seed is an important source of protein (22% edible protein) and provides an estimated 6.5% of total protein consumed in Semi-Arid West Africa. (In Niger alone, it'provides an estimated 23%.) Cowpea has a shorter cooking time and is more easily digested than most other food legumes. Average yields in developing countries. are about 240 kg/ha. However, the best varieties so far developed can yield 2,500 kg/ha on and short-duration varieties can achieve this in 60 research stations, days. Farm yields are limited by the poor plant type, poor husbandry Of all the food and the crop's susceptibility to diseases and pests. 1.9% legumes, cowpea has had the second fastest increase in production: annually during the 1970s. Consumption increases over the same period have also been high. all for Sub-Saharan Cowpea research, USS 3.080 million through the CG System in Africa, 1983. was allocated TAC recommends that this relatively high allocation be maintained for the medium term, but with an expansion of efforts for Tropical the The factors leading to this recommendation are: America and Asia. current importance of cowpea as.a subsistence crop in areas of SubSaharan Africa particularly vulnerable to food shortages; its qualities wide environmental adaptability, of genetic diversity, fast maturation, ability to Eix nitrogen, and easy placement in resistance to drought, could make it the most valuable of cropping systems which, if exploited, the pulses in the semi-arid to sub-humid tropics; the potential value in the rapid growth in production other regions of a short-duration legume; the already promising results deriving from cowpea's and consumption; and the limited capacity of national research short research history; TAC also recommends that research supported by the CG System programs. continue to concentrate on increasing yields and their stability and on improving management practices. 149 Faba Bean Faba bean is a spring crop in temperate regions, a winter crop in subtropical regions with mild winters, and grown at high elevations in Two main subgroups exist: small-seeded types, found tropical regions. and,large-seeded types, found in other in Egypt , Sudan and Afghanistan: parts of West Asia and North Africa. Faba bean is grown under rainfed (with or without supplementary irrigation) and fully irrigated conditions. It is produced in large areas of North Africa/Near East which have an annual rainfall of about 400 mm. Where rainfall is lower, it is usually grown with supplementary irrigation. While the ma.jor Ethiopian, and much of the Chinese crop is the important Nile Valley crop is irrigated. The high level of rainfed, nitrogen fixation associated with the crop makes it valuable in cropping systems. Developing countries account for almost 90% of the global producOf the developing-country share, China accounts for tion of 3.8 M t. 69%. North Africa/Near East 26%, and Latin America 5%. The protein content is high (25% of edible portion) and it is a popular food in North only 0.9% of the region's proAfrica/Near East, though it constitutes Developing-country yields of mature seed average 1,100 kg/ha, tein. more than double that of many other pulses. It is estimated that about 20% of the crop is consumed green and is not accounted for in production Demand is likely to increase as the population increases: estimates. pulse in North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean it is a preferred and provides variety to diet elsewhere. Although in the last decade yields have increased by about 20%, production has increased only slightly because of the decline in area China has increased its yield levels by 34X, but its proharvested. in Latin America has increased by about duction by only 5%. Production Brazil, has had declining yields and pro5% but the largest producer, In North Africa/Near East, yields have increased by 2X, duction. production by 8%. The constraints to production include: soil salinity in some field and storage pests; the parasitic weed, Orobanche; areas; diseases; The indeterminate growth habit of and low standards of crop management. the types usually grown often leads to rapid loss of soil moisture. Determinate lines have been produced but, hitherto, have not demonMajor variability in land races strated a potential for high yields. Further utilization of resistence/tolerance has yet to be exploited. factors in related species is prevented because of the inability to fully overcome crossing barriers. TAC commends the high quality of the collaborative research on wide crossing being undertaken in support of the System's breeding proIf successful, it could have a major impact on gram on faba bean. Also to be combreeding in both developed and developing countries. mended is the System's catalytic role in connection with the Nile Valley which has contributed positively to strengthening the national Project, research programs associated with that endeavour. 1‘50 In 1983, US$ 2.296 million was allocated to faba bean research the CG System, entirely directed to North Africa/Near East. through Despite the improvements likely to be achieved from continued research, TAC recommends that faba bean work be phased out with the end of the Nile Valley Project. The overriding considerations are these: the crop is not important globally; China, which is the largest and the only major producer, has a strong national program; outside China, the crop is harvested on only 1 M ha in the developing countries: and although faba bean is an important pulse in North Africa/Near East, a more effective use of the CG System’s allocation for the region would be for research in animal production, cereals and chickpea. After the phasing out of research on faba bean, the Center concerned should retain the responsibility for the maintenance and management of the germplasm collections. Groundnut ---Groundnut is grown under a wide range of environmental conditions in areas between 40'S and 40°N of the Equator. Most of the crop is produced where the average rainfall is about 1,200 mm. The main use of the seed is as a source of edible oil but large quantitites are consumed in the areas of production, where the high oiL (45-502) and protein (26%) contents make it an important food crop. As a combined oilseed and food crop, groundnut ranks second only The cake, after expression of the oil, is a high-protein to soybean. good quality fodder and can be animal feed, and the green haulms provide Groundnut is a valuable cash crop for millions of smallmade into hay. scale farmers in the semi-arid tropics; generates employment on the farm transportation and processing: is a valuable source of and in marketing, and makes an important contribution to foreign exchange when exported; the fat content of diets in India (28%) and Africa (as high as 62% in and to the protein content of diets throughout Sudan, for example), Sub-Saharan Africa. India is by far the largest producer, accounting for 39% of the 60% of India's production is used annual developing-country production: With respect to the other developing countries and regions, for oil. as a whole, produces 21%; China is next with 15%. Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and North Afrtca/Near East 8% each; while most of the balance is produced in South-East Asia. The average yield for all developing countries (with large fluetuations between seasons) is about 900 kg/ha unshelled nuts, although Production over the last decade has remany countries have twice that. in India it has increased only marginally, mained virtually stagnant: and in Semi-Arid West Africa has declined by about 5% annually. The trend suggests a major deficit in groundnut production, particularly in Some countries which export groundnut have Semi-Arid West Africa. become importers of vegetable oils, and the demand for oilseeds is This will projected to grow by about 3.9% annually to the year 2000. and it is expected that the have to be met through increased production, contribution of groundnut could be considerable. 151 Constraints to production are pests, diseases, poor management, erratic rainfall, the high labourlenergy inputs the crop requires, and aflototoxin production in storage. Although strong national programs exist in India, Argentina, BraziL, China and many African countries, most would benefit from increased research support. TAC supports the research emphasis directed to environmental stress; disease and pest constraints: nitrogen fixation; development of lines adapted to both high and low inputs; and wide crossing, which has already led to the development of very promising leaf-spot resistant material. In 1983, groundnut research received the CG System, with a regional distribution South Africa 13%. US$ 1.316 million through of: India 87% and East/ has TAC considers that the System’s effort on groundnut research been modest and should be substantially increased. The factors leading to this recommendation are: the crop’s important dietary contribution; its importance as a cash crop and income generator: its potential in meeting part of the global demand for vegetable oils: its secondary value as animal feed and fodder; its positive effects in cropping that the crop’s production constraints are sys terns ; and the expectation researchable and can be successfully solved. While supporting the ’ present trend toward strengthening the effort in .areas outside India, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa, TAC agrees with the Center concerned that the needs of Latin America can he served through the provision of germplasm and advice. Although TAC recommends that increased efforts be devoted to soybean as well as to groundnut, the latter is considered to be of higher priority. Lentil Lentil is grown in the subtropics, in warm temperate regions, and in the tropics either during cool dry seasons or at high altitudes., In no region does the crop make a large protein or calorie contribution to although it is a preferred secondary food at all income levels diet, where it is grown, and a traditional food in its center of origin - the eastern Mediterranean and Near East. The vegetative parts are used for Two types of equal importance are recognized: forage and green manure. large-seeded and small-seeded. Developing countries account for about 85% of world production. North Africa/Near Eastand India contribute nearly 90% of that share and several countries in Latin America and South Asia have small but locally In the drier areas of North Africa/Near East, significant production. integrating lentil is a key component of the traditional farming system, small ruminants and lentil. barley, In some countries with large production, it contributes to exports. Yields are low - 500-600 kg/ha average - and over the last but with considerable variation between decade have’remained stagnant, seasons. A few countries have made gains in production, but these have Demand is expected come largely from an increase in ,the area harvested. to increase with increasing population. 152 Constraints to production are low, unstable yields and high production costs, which cause many farmers to stop production. The harvest is labour-intensive, and a delayed harvest results in loss of seed yield from pod dehiscence and pod drop. Concentrated research in lentil. in North Africa/Near East started with the ALAD program in 1971, which was transferred to the CG System in 1977. The research history has been short and the support modest, but progress has been made by the System in developing systems for mechanical harvesting and lines with shatterless pods suited to harvest by machine. Lines have been Eound with greater cold tolerance and resistant to ---.Orobanche. A large-seeded line with relative insensitivity to daylength has now been identified. This daylength insensitivity 1~ needed for cultivation at low latitudes, where large-seeded types are preferred. 1983, Lentil research received US$ 755,000 through all allocated to North Africa/Near East. the CG System in demonstrated by the Despite the progress made and the potenttal CG System’s efforts on lentil, aster consideration of the crop’s small need to concentrate its resources For global importance and the System’s the greatest impact, TAC recommends that lentil research be phased out after five years. Caution should be taken, however, to ensure that incipient research results are not jeopardized, and national systems should be encouraged to continue research on lentil. Furthermore, the Center concerned should retain responsibility for the maintenance and management oE the lentil germplasm collections and continue to address lentil Withfn the context OE its farming systems program. Phaseolus Bean Originating in tropical Latin America and the most widely consumed pulse in that region, phaseolus bean is also important in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. In developing countries, it IS grown predominantly by small-scale farmers as both a staple and cash crop in a wide range of cropping systems and a large number of agroecological zones. About 80% OE the crop in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa is It grows best in intercropped, often on steep slopes of low fertility. good water regions in warmer temperate zones and the subtropics, and at higher altitudes or during the cool season in the tropics. Grown mainly vegetable in for the mature seed, the immature pods are an important many parts of the world and the leaves are used as salad in Asia. with highest consumption A cheap source of high-quality protein, among the poor, it is the le’ading protein source in Brazil and in parts sometimes contributing up to 30% of protein intake of Equatorial Africa, and 10-15X of calories. Available production data on this crop are overestimated to some extent because phaseolus bean is counted under “dry bean”, a category While Phaseolus sp. is the main comprised of a mixture of heans. component of “dry bean” in Latin America, in India-and the rest of Asia Latin America produces 4 M t annually, the main component is Vigna sp. with Brazil and Mexicoaccounting for about four fifths of production. 153 African production is largely concentrated highlands of eastern and southern Africa, center of Asian production. south while of the Sahara in the South-East Asia is the Yields of 500-600 kg/ha have persisted for the last 20 years and per-capita production is declining in parts of Tropical South America. In Brazil, the reasons for the yield decrease are complex and reflect a generalized pattern among agricultural commodities, although in southern Brazil the dramatic increase in soybean production may have displaced phaseolus bean to more marginal areas. The variations in yields and production that occur because of the stress conditions under which the crop Is grown, result in price fluctuations: hardest hit are the poor, who can least adjust. Stabilization of yields through breeding and selection is cjifficult because of the wide variation in consumer preferences in seed colour, shape, etc. Phaseollrs bean researilh was allocated US$ 3.947 million the CG System in 1983, with a regional distribution of: Latin 56%, Sub-Saharan Africa 37%, and North Africa/Near East 7%. through America TAC recommends that this level of effort be maintained, and welcomes the increasing attention devoted to Eastern Africa. Yield stabilfood ity is important wherever the crop is grown, since it is a’ staple of the poor, provides a substantial part of small-scale farmers income, and demand is expected to increase as populations grow. Although the work to date has been correctly directed to problems of stabilizing TAC encourages an increase of effort in breeding for higher yield yield, potential. A reduction in production constraints will require an intensive and sustatned research effort in the medium term, together with effective backup to the national program scientists, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Pigeon --pea Pigeon pea Js widely grown by subsistence farmers in the semiarid to sub-humid tropics. Tolerant of high temperatures and drought (and more tolerant of drought than chickpea), it is often grown on An important food in India and a marginal Soils and with few inputs. popular one in parts of East Africa and Ce,ntral America, it is also used for forage, green manure, nitrogen fixation, cover, windbreak and fuelThe seeds are used whole, dehulled or as a flour; and in ,the wood. Caribbean and South America, immature seeds and pods are used as a vegetable. Almost all the world production of 2 M t is in developing counwhere the crop is an important source of protein tries, led by India, (20% of mature seed) and the most important pulse after chickpea. Of India accounts for 91%. Africa 6%; the developing-country production, South-East Asia and South Asia. The remainder comes from Latin’ America, crop’s contribution to African diets is obscured by regional averages. Average developing-country yields are 6?3 kg/ha, but vary from 500-600 kg/ha in central and southern India, Africa and Asia to l,OOO1,200 kg/ha in northern India and Central America when grown as a sole crop. Production has remained stagnant over the last decade, and a 154 major shortfall is expected if the trend continues. The main production constraints are variable yields associated with stress factors, diseases and pests (although this crop recovers from insect attacks better than other pulses do), and subsistence conditions. The crop’s potential for wider use in semi-arid areas of high temperatures and poor soils is considerable, thus making it a potential complement to phaseolus bean or chickpea in the drier and more marginal areas of East/South and Equatorial Africa and Central America. Countries in Asia and East/ South Africa have shown an active interest in exploiting pigeon pea’s multipurpose potential in farming systems where drought and heat tolerance are important considerations. Pigeon pea research was allocated System in 1983, all for India. US$ 760,000 through the CG TAC considers pigeon pea to be one of the more favoured food legumes and recommends that research support be increased and efforts extended to West Africa and East/South Africa. Its usefulness as fuelwood gives it an immense advantage; its range of maturity makes it particularly adaptable for fitttng Into cropping systems, either as an and its range of seed colour, size and shape is annual or a perennlal; greater than that of many other food legumes, making it potentially more acceptable to some populations. Furthermore, the research history is short and little has been done outside of India; but results so far and pipeline developments Indicate considerable progress towards improving and its usefulness in mixed-cropping yield potential and stability, systems. Soybean A subtropical plant originally domesticated in China, soybean is now cultivated throughout East and South-East Asia, the Americas (particularly the USA and Brazil) and to a very limited extent in SubIts cultivation now extends from the Saharan Africa and the Near East. tropics to 52’N. The main Soybean has high protein (38%) and fat (18%) content. The residue use is for oil and protein products in the food industry. protein products and animal after oil extraction is used for flour, Although an important food crop and inexpensive source of protein feed. in eastern Asia, efforts to introduce it as a food crop elsewhere have met with limited success, although it is gaining importance in many It requires special and relatively tedious parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. prepared in the same way as other legumes it has an processing: unattractive flavour and is indigestible. About 40% of the global area harvested is in developing counTropical South America produces 49% of the developing-country tries. which has a large export trade), China share (75% of this from Brazil, 28X, Temperate South AmeriCa 13%, and South-East Asia 5%. The crop provides nearly 5% of the protein consumption in China and South-East Its fat contribution. to diet is 20% in Brazil; 6-7X in China, Asia. India and Thailand; and 4-5% in Indonesia. 155 Yields vary considerably, from 0.8 t/ha in Sub-Saharan Africa to 1.8 t/ha in Latin America. In the .last decade, the global area harvested increased by 74% and the developing-country area nearly doubled. During the same period, production increased at an annual rate of 90% in Latin America, 32% in Sub-Saharan Africa, and 3% in Asia; There are small levels of production in nine African countries and others are showing interest. Soybean production has increased in developing countries at an average annual rate of over 11%, the fastest rate of all agricultural commodities’. The developing-country demand for oilseed is expected to grow 2.9% annually until the year 2000 and production will need to increase In Sub-Saharan Africa, oilseed is already in short supply accordingly. and countries of the region imported substantial quantities of both soybean cake and soybean oil in 1981. Soybean research outside the CG System has been under way for some time, and in developing countries has been served by AVRDC and INTSOY. The System’s work, which has been of short duration, is based in Suh-Saharan Africa, and has progressed well in addressing three specific problems: increasing the ability of soybean to nodulate with naturally occurring rhizobia: improving seed longevity: and developing appropriate cultural and management practices for pure stands or No new variety produced by the CG System has mixed-cropping systems. yet been released, but advanced material is in the final stages of evaluation. all for Soybean was allocated Sub-Saharan Africa. US$ 796,000 through the CG System in 1983, TAC recommends that research support for soybean be increased, and continue to focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, given that the needs of Asia are successfully served by AVRDC and those’of Latin America by The recommendation is based on consideration strong national programs. of : the crop’s importance in the face of the increasing oilseed demand the high level of interest in, and in Sub-Saharan AErica and globally: apparent potential for the crop in Sub-Saharan Africa, where it is an attractive cash crop for small-scale farmers and where it can be readily adapted into mixed-farming systems to complement maize in crop on the modest research effort to rotations ; the high level of return date; and the excellent potential for finding solutions to some of the TAC recommends that more important production problems in the tropics. the Center concerned continue its collaborati.on with INTSOY and AVRDC. LIVESTOCK Ruminant In countries knowledge development often too Diseases - the diseases which attack ruminants in tropical general, Although the are very similar to those in temperate regions. acquired in developed countries can be quickly applied to the of control measures for tropical parasites, the methods are costly for the developing-country cattle owner or national 156 government. There search by national companies to develop control, and a need develop resistance is, therefore, a need for continuing, intensive reand international institutions and international cheaper, more effective and practicable methods of for new chemicals as vectors and their parasites to the old. Theileriosis and trypanosomiasis are estimated to cause the loss a year and, despite research over several decades, no of 3 M cattle effective, economical, nor easily implemented control has yet been developed. Theileriosis affects cattle and sometimes sheep, goats tic buffalo in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The System trates on the virulent form, East Coast Fever, which affects East/South Africa, where it Is estimated to cause the loss of mals a year out of a total cattle population of 25 M. It is at present by dipping or spraying susceptible animals to kill. vector. However, this is often beyond the means of small-scale and ticks are developing acaracide resistance. and domesconcencattle in 0.5 M anicontrolled the tick farmers Trypanosomiasis, spread in Africa by tsetse flies, occurs also in Latin America, the Middle East and Asia but is, at present, a major problem mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Different species infect ruminan s, other domestic animals and man. The disease occurs in about 10 M km of frica, affecting 38 countries, and it is estimated that z 4 about 7 M km of this area would otherwise be suitable for livestock or for mixed crop/livestock development. The areas infested by tsetse fly have been expanding since the 195Os, and current information indicates that the situation is worsening. This has contributed to overstocking on tsetse-free pastures. Regular treatment with drugs has been an important method of trypanosomiasis control since the early 1920s; but drug-resistant trypanosome populations are now being encountered, and Efforts the cost of producing new drugs is prohibitive, yet necessary. to control trypanosomiasis by spraying tsetse-infested and breeding sites have been practised with limited success, and with the risk that repeated 'spraying may lead to environmental pollution. The CG System's current approach to controlling these diseases However, this is a long-term, focussed on the development of vaccines. path-breaking research venture, and could lead to the development of Because of the high alternative control mechanisms yet unforeseen. that the CG level of risk in this critical area, it is appropriate take the lead responsibility. than national systems, System, rather through In 1983, ruminant-disease research received US$ 5.535 million allocated to commodities. the CG System - 6% of the resources is TAC recommends that the current level of support to ruminant The External Program Review of the lead Center diseases be maintained. will examine the possibility of extending the Center's mandate to other and set a time horizon for the continuation important animal diseases, of work on the two diseases currently being researched. 157 Large Ruminants The population of cattle in developing countries in 1980 was estimated to be 794 M: about 33% in Latin America, 23% in India, 18% in Africa, 9% in North Africa/Near East, and the remainder in China and the rest of Asia. Beef (including buffalo) provides nearly 5% of protein consumption in developing countries globally, but 38% in Temperate South America and 13% in Tropical South America. Cow milk provides another 8-lU% of protein consumption in Latin America, and beef and milk are important items of the diet in the drier areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. In pastoral systems and in India, cattle are used traditionally ‘for milk production. Cattle are managed under widely different production systems, including pastor-al and ranching systems, largeand small-scale cropllivestock systems of various degrees of sophistication, and specialized dairy systems. They have.a role in both wet and dry tropics and are an effective way of using the low-yielding forage in the vast areas of the world’s arid and semi-arid tropics where, as in Africa and Asia, they provide a means of livelihood for herders in an environment which is unsuitable for crop production and would not otherwise be exploited. Elsewhere, much of their forage comes from pastures, crop fallows, and crop residues ; and from specially formulated feeds in intensive systems. Cattle provide draught power, manure for fertilizer or fuel, and employment in livestock maintenance or in associated industries. In the 197Os, the numbers of cattle in developing countries increased by 11 X. In Latin America and North Africa they increased by 20%, in Sub-Saharan Africa 10% and in India 3%. Numbers decreased only in China. Beef and buffalo production in developing countries increased annually by an average of 1.9% and milk production by 3.2X, while consumption of beeE and milk increased annually by 2.4% and 3.7X, respectively. Demand projections for beef and milk are expected to exceed the projections for population growth. The System’s activities in cattle production focus on Africa and Latin America, where productivity remains low in many areas. Stocking live weight gains, off-take, carcass weight, and milk yield per rates, animal are much less than in developed countries and, therefore, indicate a high potential for improvement. In Su b-Saharan Africa , the approach has been to base detailed researc.h on a diagnosis of the major production constraints of selected Research focusses on production systems in the major ecological zones. Improving the productivity of rangelands, crop/livestock systems and small-holder dairy systems; improving the productivity and extending the use of draught animals; and investigating the potential for the greater A particular use of trypanotolerant cattle in tsetse-infested areas. challenge is presented in developing acceptable means of modifying and improving traditional methods of animal production in rangelands, which Poor support the poorest people and are most prone to drought. management of range and livestock is leading to low productivity and to take risks, are range degradation, and herd owners, who cannot afford traditionally the least amenable to change. ’ 158 In Latin America, on the other hand, the System has focussed on the improvement of pastures on the acid infertile soils of the Llanos and Cerrado. Improved management practices, together with the introduction of improved legume and grass cultivars, have substantially improved the productivity of the natural savanna. For example, CC System scientists have demonstrated that annual liveweight gains can be increased from 15 kg/ha to 300 kg/ha under improved management, reducing significantly the time needed to bring animals to slaughter weight. Research has hitherto concentrated on the savannas with very acid with the ultimate objective of improving them sufficiently for soils, These areas carry about 30% of the cattle in Latin America, cropping. and are primarily divided into large holdings. Since the majority of cattle in Latin America are incorporated into mixed, small-farm systems in the areas With less-acid soils, proposals have been developed to extend the CG System's pasture research into these areas. In the humid where approximately half of the 6 M ha of forest land that has tropics, been cleared is already degraded, research for the reclamation of degraded pastures has been proposed. The objectives are to increase productivity and carrying capacity, and thus reduce the pressure for TAC fully endorses these proposals. further land clearing. In 1983, the CG System allocated US$ 12.173 million to ruminant production, distributed regionally as: Sub-Saharan Africa 34X, North Africa/Near East 34X, and Latin America 32%. The whole of the Latin American allocation was devoted to the improvement of tropical pastures for cattle production and about two thirds of the allocation to SubSaharan Africa and North Africa/Near East was for cattle systems. The total allocation to large-ruminant production represented about 10% of the System's resources. TAC recommends an increase in support to research on large-rumiSerious production constraints persist, and the future nant production. demand for meat and milk is expected to be high. The System's efforts should concentrate on enhancing ruminant nutrition through rangeland and pasture improvement and through improved animal husbandry related to to integrated crop/ pasture/forage management. Also, the attention livestock systems should be increased. TAC considers that the present level of support to rangeland and pasture management in Sub-Saharan Africa is appropriate, but recommends an increase in the CG System's collaborative efforts with other institutions on improving the productive capacity oE trypanotolerant cattle. additional resources should be allocated to support In Latin America, the expanded research effort on pasture improvement for cattle production in the degraded areas of the humid tropics, and in the mixed crop/ livestock systems of areas of moderately acid soils. Small Ruminants The world population of sheep and goats, the two most important small ruminants, was estimated to be 1,083 M (44% goats) in 1980, disNorth Africa/Near East 30%, Sub-Saharan Africa tributed regionally as: 23X, China 19%, Latin America 14X, and Asia 14%. There are large in Latin regional differences in the proportion of sheep to goats: 159 America, goats represent only about 7% of the total; in North Africa/ Near East, there are twice as many sheep as goats; and in Su.b-Saharan AErica, numbers are about equal. Their relative importance can be judged by their numbers relative to people and cattle: in North Africa/Near East, an estimated 94 sheep and goats to every 100 people and 450 to every 100 head of cattle; in Africa, 66 and 170 respectively; in India 16 and 62; and in South and South-E&St Asia 6 and 45. sheep farming in Latin America, small-rumiApart from commercial nant production in developing countries is associated With the poorest people. Valued for their meat, milk and fibre, small ruminants are im' portant components of pastoral systems in rangelands in the semi-arid and, arid tropics, and elsewhere of crop/livestock production systems. Like other ruminants, they have a special importance in converting resources not directly eaten by man: natural pastures, fallow grazing and crop residues. Their small size, low feed requirements, short generation cycle with frequent multiple births, and low individual value make them ideal. animals for pastoralists and small-scale farmers alike. Goats survive drought better than cattle or sheep; their numbers quickly build up when favourable conditions return; and, being browsers, they can thrive on poor-quality bushland, preventing bush encroachment in the 'process. Although sheep and goats provide only a very small amount of the global production of meat and milk, it is estimated that they provide an average of 30% of the meat consumed in North Africa/Near East, 20% in Sub-Saharan Africa, and up to 50% in Somalia, Jordan and India. They are an important source of protein for protein-deficient people, and In 1981, sheep and their wool and skins provide additional income. goats provided 20% of the hides and skins in developing countries. The numbers of sheep and goats have increased by 11% and 15% respectively in developing countries in the last decade. The numbers of In Subboth animals have increased by 24% in North Africa/Near East. Saharan Africa they have increased by 6% and 8% respectively; in China by 24% and 30X;'and in South and South-East Asia by 24% and 21%, from a low base. There has been some increase in Tropical South America, 'but a The annual increase in substantial fall in Temperate South America. demand for sheep and goat products and for milk from all animals exceeded production in the 197Os, and projections up to the year 2000 indicate that the gap is increasing Easter than Eor any other of the considering that sheep and food commodities. This is not surprising, goats have been given low priority in research and development. Little is known of the potential of local breeds or even of the composition of their diets; and less is known about goats than sheep. The System's research on small ruminants is recent and focussed In North Africa/Near on North Africa/Near East and Sub-Saharan Africa. East, where they are an essential part of cereal/livestock systems, attention is directed to improving grazing resources through the improveinent of annual forages and pastures to replace fallows, and through the improvement of lands marginal to cropping which have become degraded through overstocking and soil erosion. Research on sheep, although limited, has been successful in diagnosing production problems and improving the contribution of sheep to production systems. % 160 In Sub-Saharan contribution of small humid areas, and work small amount of work importance in regional Africa, research has focussed on the place and ruminants in farming systems, particularly in has been initiated on trypanotolerant hreeds. A has been initiated on the camel because of its production systems. in 1983 has The CG System's allocation to small-ruminant research been estimated at about 3% of the allocation to commodities. This allocation is somewhat hFgh when measured against the global average contribution of small ruminants to diet. However, it is probably low when account is taken of their importance as food, as a source of cash to the very poor, and as the essential core of farmfng systems in North Africa/Near East, Sub-Saharan Afri.ca, India and, to a lesser extent, elsewhere in Asia: Furthermore, the System's research effort began with virtually no knowledge base; and small ruminant production, especially with respect to local breeds, is neglected In development plans and by international donors. TAC recommends, therefore, that the System's effort in.small ruminants be increased and, for economy of effort, continue to focus on Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa/Near East, where account has not Programs should been taken of their importance to the poorest people. be brought to a level where they can make a rapid impact on production. TAC considers that research should focus As with large ruminants, primarily on improving nutrition through the improvement of the quantity and quality of feed supplies (especially the rangeland forages and browse), and on improving the husbandry practices essential. for raising increasing productivity and ensuring sustainability. Likewise, attention should be paid to improving the management of trypanotolerant breeds, and to the further integration of small ruminants into cropping systems. NEW VENTURES Tropical vegetables There is a very large array of vegetables, the kinds vary considand strong social preferences dictate the erably from place to place, Pastoral societies rely almost entirely on wild choice of species used. species, as do other subsistence societies in times of food stress. This gives some indication of people's need for the addition of nutriThey also provide a valuable source of ents that vegetables provide. As a group, they are highincome to producers near large urban areas. yielding-and are well adapted to small-scale operations if markets are close, and to large-scale operations as infrastructure improves and All income groups transportation and cold storage become available. need and prefer them as supplementary foods, and the demand in developing countries is expected to increase by 3.4% a year through to the year 2000. 161 The data presented are from returns for 24 primary vegetables, all of which (except cassava leaves, eggplant, okra and peppers) are temperate species. The estimates of production refer largely to vegetables grown for sale and usually exclude the very l.arge quantities produced for home consumption. Data, therefore, tend to underestimate .the total value of vegetables grown and their contribution to diet. Even so, they underscore the high value of vegetable crops on both counts. Diseases and pests are problems, and there is much scope for varietal improvement: another ma.jor constraint is poor marketing facilities. A modest increase in production can lead to temporary gluts and a major research need in many areas Is to extend the production period. At present, there is only one international institution for vegetable research - AVRDC - and its efforts are focusscd on the improvement of six vegetable crops in the lowland humid tropics, primarily in Asia. Most national research systems in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, devote little effort to vegetables. TAC recommends that research on tropical vegetables become an explicit objective of the CG System, and he directed both at the potential for increased vegetable production in tropical areas, and at the potential for growing indigenous tropical vegetables in other developingcountry areas. It notes that AVRDC has already made significant advances in the improvement of certain vegetable crops in Asia, and recommends that it be closely associated with the recommended CGIAR .In such efforts, efforts to develop a research program for vegetables. which would involve other Centers or institutions, particularly outside Asia, AVRDC should play an important role. A key issue in developing a plan for CGIAR action in this field These should be relevant to the is the choice of species for .inclusion. ‘speciEic regions and their consumers, lend themselves to research on an and offer opportunities for payoff. In the light international scale, TAC recommends that CGIAR support of resource and impact considerations, be clearly focussed and limited initially to approximately six species. Among the ones to be considered are -~-Amaranthus sp., Capsicum -- sp., Celosia argenta okra, onion and tomato. --__ ---’ Other important considerations in establishing a plan of action relate to: the integration of this new initiative with the System’s current efforts on commodities which either are vegetables (green bean,sweet potato and soybean) or produce vegevegetable cowpea, potato, tables as by-products (bean leaves and cassava leaves); and the complementarity of recommended programs with the ongoing work at AVRDC on some Also to he considered - particularly in estabof these commodities. - are the conditions necessary for the rapid lishing regional priorities transfer and application of research results (e.g. distribution systems for seed and other inputs, marketing systems, and purchasing power). considers Of the commodities that vegetables considered for inclusion in the CG System, should be given the highest priority. TAC 16.2 Oilseeds The oilseed crops are a large and diverse group. The two most important , soybean and groundnut, are discussed in this report under Other important sources of edible vegetable oils are two food legumes. perennial crops, coconut and oil palm, and a number of annual crops with different regional significance: sunflower, safflower, rapeseed, sesame Cottonseed is also a major source of edible oil, although and mustard. cotton is grown prtmarily for its value as a source of natllral fibre. The group are an excellent source OF protein and fat and make an ideal complement to root crops, which are predominantly carbohydrate. They are used as whole seed, vegetable oil and animal feed (in the form of oil cake aEter oil extracti-on), and their by-products are used for fuelwood, mul.ch and industrial purposes (e.g. coir fibre). Soybean, groundnut and coconut are important foods in their primary growing countries, provide employment areas, are major cash crops in developing in farm and processing industries, and earn valuable foreign exchange. Their processing has often been a first step to industrialization. ’ Increases in the developing-world production of oilseeds matched demand in the 197Os, but at very different rates for different crops. Oil paLm production increased by 11% annually; sunflower, safflower and rapeseed by 5-7%; coconut by 2%: and sesame remained virtually stagnant. Trends indicate that total oilseed production will have to increase an average of 3.3% annually to meet demand to the year 2000. Although this is small comfort in regions crops can substitute for one another, such as Equatorial and Humid-West Africa where, based on recent trends, oilseed production will not meet demand. The oilseeds which do not earn foreign exchange are of a lesser safflower and rapeseed make and largely local importance. Sunflower, relatively low contributions to the food supplies and economies of devIn developeloping countries and are of much Less national importance. ing countries, sunflower is harvested from only 3 M ha, saEflower from Sesame is widely grown in a vari1.2 M ha, and rapeseed from 7.4 M ha. ety of conditions in the tropics and subtropics, mostly for domestic About 6.3 M ha are harvested in developing countries, and consumption. India, Mexico and Venezuela have strong national research programs for the crop. TAC considers that none of the annual oilseed crops, soybean and is of sufficient global importance to justify the groundnut excepted, allocation of CG System resources at present. Oil palm, a perennial, is a major world oil crop, usually grown on plantations in rain forest areas of South-East Asia, West Africa and Oil palm production is dynamic and highly Central and South America. competitive: in response to the demand Ear vegetable oil, production Intensive private and public increased by 11% per annum in the 1970s. sector research has led to considerable, increases in yield per hectare Recently developed techniques for the vegeand improved oil quality. tative propagation of the oil palm through tissue culture opens the way to cheap methods of raising large numbers of plantlets from elite research is done by IRHO and commercial Internationally, clones. Colombia, Ecuador, Malaysia and Nigeria also have strong interests. 163 national programs. that the needs for TAC therefore considers production and post-harvest research are well addressed and do not require support from the CG System. Coconut, also a perennial, is not only a primary source of edible oil, but also of livestock feed and fibre and can be processed into a variety of end products. Its contribution to food supplies is substantial. Cultivated widely in littoral regions of the world, it is especially important in South-East Asia, India and the Pacific and Caribbean islands, but standards of husbandry and ytelds are generally low. The IRHO does research on the crop internationally and there are a number of significant nattonal institutes and programs for coconut research in India, Indonesia, .Jamaica, Philippines, Sri Lanka and the South Pacific. Utilization research is done in developing countries and at specialized institutes in developed countries. Unti.1 recently, relatively little progress had been made with coconut breeding. The reasons are the long life cycle of the palms, the small number oE seeds per palm, and the absence of suitable methods of vegetative propagation. The recent production of plantlets by tissue culture (conducted by TRHO in its research on both oil palm and coconut) offers promise for the development of a practical method of increasing elite clones raptdly. Work in the Pacific and Seychelles on an importhe rhinoceros beetle, has led to the development of tant coconut pest, a control method for insect-borne viruses. However, there are several other highly damaging diseases about which little is known. TAC considers that the establishment of an international coconut research network, now under study by the World Rank, would provide a focal point for collaboration and for donor support. The value of coconut as an ecologically sound, food and cash crop suitable for smallholder cultivation, the geographical diversity of its production, the potential for further research opened by the progress in tissue-culture multiplication, the uncoordinated research effort to date, and the need to solve important disease problems are strong reasons for coordinating and strengthening present research efforts. TAC considers that strengthened research for oilseeds in general is indicated. This is based on analyses of the projected increase in demand for vegetable oils, the deficit in these commodities already exand the gap in international perienced by some developing countries, As stated research on a number of potentially important oilseed crops. TAC recommends that the CG System inin other sections of this report, crease its ef Sort on groundnut and soybean, as well as on maize (whose use as an oil crop may increase when other needs are met): and recommends the inclusion of coconut research in the CG System as an additional activity, but second to tropical vegetables in priority. Aquaculture Fish and fish products from all sources contribute about 5% of the protein to the diets of developing-country regions, but regional differences are large. In North Africa/Near East and India, the and Semi-Arid West proportion is 3% or less, while in Humid West Africa Africa it is more than lo%, and in South-East Asia it contributes almost 15%. In these latter regions,.as well as in South Asia, more protein is derived from fishery products than from either meat or legumes. Much of the fish consumed Is an inexpensive dried or salted product and is, therefore, often within the means of the poorest people. The global production of fish and fish products 76’M t, just exceeding the combined global production poultry (75 M t) for that year. Aquaculture contributed the global fishery harvest. in 1983 was of beef and about 13% of Increasing population has led to increasing fish demand. Although catches i.ncreased substantially from 20 ?l t in 1960 to 70 M t in 1970 - resulting from greater fishing intensity and more effici.ent capture technologies - they have s-lnce levelled ofF. Poor management and the lack of conservatton methods have led to serious depletion of stocks in many parts of the world. The widening gap that has resulted between supply and demand has stimulated a growing interest in aquaculture for the intensive production of fish for food. It has heen estimated that aquaculture, through expansion and intensification, could produce up to five times the current levels of fish and fish products (10 r-4 t). South and South-East Asia, where aquaculture has been important This for centuries, produces 70% of the world’s aquacultural product. The commodirepresents about 8% of the total fish catch Cn the area. ties produced by aquaculture are finfish, molluscs, seaweeds, and crustaceans. Finfish constitutes the major component and accounts for 44% of global production. Ffsh and shellfish are reared at difEerent levels of management and sophistication and in a range of environments: and in both inland and coastal waters. fresh, brackfsh and salt water: Even with an inadequate research base, aquacultural production is The growth has been fIleled largely increasing at a rate of 7.3% a year. by expansion in production of all species except finfish. Finfish production has remained relatively stagnant in terms of aggregate global the regional trends: productj.on. This masks, however, some important substantial increase in finfish production made from a low base in Latin AmerLca, which has been offset by a significant decrease in product-ion in Africa. Aquaculture has a high potential as a valuable component of the It enables intensive food producproduction systems of small farmers. tion with high off-take from limited areas of land, and some species making them an important source of cash. command high market prices, The primary constraints to production are the lack of an adequate biological research base on the genetics, reproduction, nutrition and the need for better cultural systems: physiology of warm water fishes; and institutional nature. and constraints of an economFc, social There is a great range of programs in, for example, India, To coordinate and Philippines. of Aquaculture Centers has been FAO/UNDP, functioning within the It Developing Countries (TCDC). research activftfes and strong research Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the focus efforts, the Interregional Network established under the auspices of framework of Technical Cooperation of builds heavily on activities carried 165 out by existing national and regional institutions which are closely ICLARM linked through appropriate arrangements for technology exchange. is an important link in this network, as is SEAFDEC. TAC supports the efforts of the Interregional Network of Aquaculture Centers, ICLARM and SEAFDEC in this field. TAC recommends that aquaculture he included in the CG System as a new venture. This decision is based on: its potential to contribute significantly to the protein requirements of the diets of populations in developing-country regions; its potential as an ecologically sound means of intensifying production in areas of limi.ted or, scarce I-and and/or aquatic resources ; and its potential as an important source of cash income for small-farm families. There is a perceived need for a yet greater research effort on the international level, especially to generate attractiVe, cost-effective technologies for improving warm-water finfish production. This objectfve implies a concentration of strategic and applied biological and socioeconomic research of the type supported by the CGIAR for other commoditi.es. TAC recognizes; however, that several important concerns would have to addressed before the CG System could embark on such an initiative. These include : a clear identification of the strategic and applied research needs which are appropriate for the System to pursue and which hold promise of high returns; an identification of the species which could lend themselves to research at the international level an identiEication of regions for (tilapia and milkfish might qualify); which the impact of research would be greatest (probably Asia); and an evaluation of network and-station-based research operations to determine TAC is which mechanism could best carry out the System’s programs. pursuing these questions and will provide more detailed recommendations on them in due course. 167 TECHNICAL ANNEX: PART 4 Notes on the Data Base A. Estimating Approaches, the Distribution of CGIAR Efforts Commodities and Regions among Program To provide the statistical support. for priority setting and for making recommendations for resource allocation, information on the current distribution of CGTAR efforts was needed In a form consistent with the analytical framework developed by TAC. In view of the fact that the budget and resource-allocation process in the CGIAR and, hence, reporting by Centers follow considerations and criteria that are different from those used in this analytical framework, an effort was required to ad,just the information available from Centers to fit the needs of this analysis. Information was needed at the level of the CG System on the distribution of efforts by program.approach, by commodity and by'reglon. Such information was needed to indicate the direction, order of magnitude and relative weight of the System's present efforts. It facilitated comparisons of various kinds. It helped to determine the relative weight of present efforts among program approaches, among commodities and among regions: it helped to determine changes in emphasis over time; and it helped to determine potential differences between current levels of effort and resource requirements (i.e. what was needed in terms of critical mass requirements to achieve specific program ob.jectives). TAC considered that, for the purposes of this analysis, tion requirements were best met by combining the expenditures TAC is aware of some of the activities and special projects. comings of this approach; but on balance it is convinced that combination of core and non-core expenditures most adequately the Systems's total effort under its eight program approaches, commodity programs and in the 12 regFons. The emphasis clearly indicating orders of magnitude and thus facilitating the kind comparisons needed for the analysis. informaof core shortthis reflects its was on of The basic source of information used was the Centers' 1985 prowhich provided actual expenditures for 1983. In grams and budgets, reorganizing - through a process of estimation - the information on resources used by Centers to Eit the framework 0% this analysis, TAC relied on additional information generously provided by the Centers and on its own collective judgment. TAC wishes to record its appreciation for the assistance given by the Centers in providing information and explanations on the content of 168 their budget-line various elements 1. Estimating Approaches items and for their guidance when this was required. the Distribution on disaggregating the of CGIAR Effort among Program 1983 expenditu- rcs The method and assumptions among the program approaches Resource employed to distribute are described below. Research (1) Management -- and Conservation I__- Germplasm conservation: These figures include work related ---the CGIAR's mandated crops, to related species and to agriculturally useful species not covered by CGIAR commodity research. - Line item "Genetic Conservation" or similar title for all commodity Centers except CTP and IBPGR. - CIP: the amount allocated to "Taxonomy". - IBPGR: the amounts allocated to "Collection and survey", "Conservation", "Characterization and documentation" and "Strategic research". Resource management activities which could not have been determined on the The funds relate Centers. soil and water management, for the bush fallow system. to and conservation: These figures reEer to --he assigned to any specific commodity. They basis of information received from the primarily to Centers' research programs on and replacement technologies land clearing, - The funds assigned to this aspect of the program approach represent a proportion of "Farming systems" ICARDA, ICRISAT and IITA. The specific proportions were determined in consultation with each Center. of (ii) Crop _ Productivity --- Research - Line items for research on each commodity at each commodity Center. - The socioeconomic activities, where listed separately were prorated among the commodities of the by Centers, Center concerned. unless otherwise noted, was pro- "Research support", Although germplasm rated among the major commodities. bank operations are listed as "Research support" in they were included under "Germplasm some Centers, and the appropriate adjustments conservation" (above), made. - "Farming or cropping systems" has been prorated, with among the mandated CGIAR crops or to Center guidance, "Resource Management and Conservation Research", as noted above. 169 (iii) Livestock Productivity Research --and Animal Disease: -- ILRAD: research programs on trypanosomiasis theilerfosis, and "Research support". - ILCA: "Trypanotolerance" and "Trypanotolerance networks". Since much of the CG System's work on RumCnant Production: -ruminant production strives to improve animal nutrition as a means to TAC included in this program approach the achieve higher productivity, System's research programs on pasture and forage as well as those on TAC recognizes that these activities Livestock-based farming systems. complement and are closely related to those included under the program approach dealing with resource management and conservation research. - CIAT: "Tropical pastures" plus share of "Research support". - ICARDA: "Forage" and that portion of "Farming systems" directed to livestock, plus share of "Research support". - ILCA: "Central Scient1fl.c LJnLts" (except "Livestock Policy Unit"), "Arid Zones", "Sub-humid Zone" and "Humid Zone", plus "Central Support Services". - Research at CIAT, ICARDA and 1LCA directed to animal nutrition/husbandry. (iv) Commodity Conservation --- and Utilization Research - CIP: 75% of "Post-harvest technology". 50% oE the costs - CIMMYT, ICARDA, ICRISAT, IITA, IRRI: of the analytical/chemical Laboratories. - CIAT and ILCA: estimated proportion of "Research .services/Research support". (VI 1 Analysis of Human Nutrition Linkages - IFPRI: "Consumption". - CIP: 25% of "Post-harvest technology". 50% of the costs - CIMMYT, ICARDA, ICRISAT, IRRI, IITA: of the analytical/chemistry laboratories. small proportion of "Research services". - CIAT: Food Policy - IFPRI: - ILCA: - IRRI: Research programs, except "Consumption". Unit". to constraint analysfs. Research Capacities included under other program national research capacities, (vi> all research "Livestock-Policy items related National (vii) Strengthening ,Much of the work of the Centers approaches also results in strengthening 170 since training and research are closely Cntegrated in the CG System. This applies particularly to many of the Centers' special projects incorporated under "Crop/Livestock Productivity Research" which have substantial training or institution-building components. The determination of the funds spent on this aspect in the programs could not be clearly separated out, however, with the info&nation available to TAC. Similarly, many of the core research activities also have a substantial training component which could not he identified, e.g. the amount of researchers' time which is devoted to training activities. Thus, the amount of CG System funds actua.Lly spent on training is likely to be somewhat underestimated in this analysis. Training ---- total and conferences of this Line item plus of aL1 Centers. one of TRRI's special pro.jects. Institution building -----1--- the ISNAR program Information ---- the total Library, (viii) Integration -- and documentation of the line items concerning documentation and information of Efforts communications, for all Centers. Clearly, the amount of funds that the CG System spends on the integration of efforts is difficult to determine. This approach is comprised of activities such as inter-Center communication or Centers' catalytic functions, which are not clearly reflected in any line item of the programs and budgets. TAC, therefore, decided to use 50% of the cost of the Centers' Boards of Trustees as a proxy for the funds spent in activities directed towards this objective. This is based on the assumption that half of the members of the Boards of most Centers are from developing coun'tries, and that half oE the Boards' time is spent on matters which result in improved integration of efforts, both within the System and between the System and its partners in the global system. The costs of bringing developing-country representatives to CGIAR meetings and the costs of CGIAR meetings themselves were not included although they would have been relevant - because these costs are not included in Centers' program and budget Line items. Therefore, the actual amount spent by the System on the integration of efforts is probably greater than that indicated in this analysis. - 50% of the line item CIMMYT and ILCA. .2. "Board of Trustees"; estimated for Estimating the Distribution of CGIAR Global Research Effort by Commodity and Regional Ideally, the estimation of funds spent in commodity programs should be the sum of the allocatioqs to the program approaches of crop commodity conversion and utilizaproductivity, Livestock productivity, plus at least 50% of the program tion, and human:nutrition linkages: However, given the approach of resource management and conservation. 171 structuring oE the available data base on Center expenditures, it was not possible to fully reflect the breadth of the multidisciplinary commodity approach. In particular, the funds spent on that part of farming systems research included in "Resource Management and Conservation Research*' could not be allocated to specific commodities. Similarly, the funds spent on genetic conservation activities outside the CGIAR mandated crops also could not be assigned to specific commodities. Furthermore, the amounts included in "Commodity Conversion and Utilization Research" and "Analysis of Human Nutrftion Linkages" are so small that they were difficult to disaggregate by commodity. TAC, consequently, deci.ded that the funds distributed to "Crop/ Livestock Productivity", i.e. $92.908 million, could serve as a reasonable proxy in determining the distribution of the System’s efforts in multidisciplinary commodity research among individual commodities and for estimating the regional distribution of funds spent in commodity research. Core research expenditures for each Center on each commodity were determined first, and the amounts were then prorated among regions with advice from the Centers concerned. Expenditures from special pro.jects were added according to their spectfic regional focus. A special project covering more than one region was assigned to the regions in the same proportions as core funds, unless more precise information was available. Difficulties were encountered when the Centers' regions did not coincide with the regional breakdown used in the tables. The assignment of Pakistan and Ethiopia to North Africa/Near East results in North Africa/Near East receiving a higher proportion of funds and Asia and than.if Pakistan had been classified as South Africa somewhat lower, Asia and Ethiopia as East/South Africa. The data from this breakdown by commodity and regions are presented in Table IV in the text and in the Annex Tables 5 and 6. B. Notes on the Annex Tables Most of the tables containing commodity information included in Part 5 of the Technical Annex are derived from the FAO and ICS data those assembled for the FAO study "Agriculture: files - particularly Towards 2000", published in 1981 - to which information on China has Some of the tables were first presented in the FAO document been added. "Quantitative Indicators for Priorities in International Agricultural Research" (1984),, while the balance were prepared specially for this The country groupings listed in Table 1 are those which were paper. used in FAO's document on quantitative indicators. The FAO analysis of trends through the year 2000 in demand, and calorie and protein conttiibutions, value of production, production, are based on its AT 2000 model, employing the Scenario B, which assumes Scenario B is not a forecast nor modest rates of economic development. It is a set of nominative a direct projection from past trends. 172 projections of what could be achieved in developing-country regions under the assumption of modest GDP growth and their estimated rates of population growth. The projections also assume the wider application of current technology, improved support services to Earmers, and higher capital investment in agriculture. The patterns described are extrapolated from the transformation of agriculture which has already taken place in various parts of the world through the application of resources and technology. TAC recognizes that for some commodities or some regions, more accurate data bases can be found; but in the interests of comparabflity and because of the diEEiculties in presenting data Erom widely differing sources in a cohesive fashion, only the FAO bases have been These FAO data bases are invaluahle because of their comprehenused. siveness and the general consistency in the reporting methods followed by countries. Where strong differences existed between FAO data and other commodity-specific data sources, the process of assessing priorities took the complementary information into account. 173 TECHNICAL ANNEX: 'Annex 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Country Groupings Sector Indicators for DevelopingTables PART 5 Socioeconomic and Agricultural Country Regions Projected Demands in Developing-Country Annual Rate of Change 1979/81 to 2000, Projected CaLorie Developing-Country Regions by Commodity, in Percent to Diets in Contributions by Commodity Regions, 2000, in Percent Estimated Distribution Regions by Commodity, Estimated Distribution Regions by Commodity, Commodity Calorie Contribution Commodity, 1979/81, Protein Contribution Commodity, 1979/81, of CG System Funds to Developing-Country 1983, in USS'OOO of CG System Funds to Developing-Country 1983, in Percent oE Total Funds for Each to Diets in Developing-Country in Percent of Regional Total to Diets in Developing-Country in Percent of Regional Total by Calorie by Protein Contribution Contribution Regions Regions to Diets to Diets by by in in 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Ranking of Food Commodities Developing-Country Regions Ranking of Food Commodities Developing-Country Regions Ranking of Commodities Contribution to Diets, Production, in Percent Value oE Production 1979/81, in Percent Ranking Country by CG System Allocation, Calorie Protein Contribution to Diets, and Value of 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. in Developing-Country Regions by Commodity, of Total Regional Value of Production by Value of Production Regions in Developing1979/81, 1979/81, in in of Food Commodities Regions Harvested Area in Developing-Country Million Hectares by Crop, Production in Developing-Country Regions by Commodity, Percent of Production of All Developing Countries Production Trends in Developing-Country Regions by Commodity, Annual Rate of Change 1969/71 to 1979/81, in Percent 174 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. Labour Million Use in Developing-Country Man/Days Regions by Crop, 1979/81, in Projected Production Trends in Developing-Country Commodity, Annual Rate of Change 1979/81 to 2000, Regions by in Percent Regions by of Production by Commodity, Projected Value of Production in Developing-Country Commodity, 2000, in Percent of Total Regional Value Food Consumption Trends in Developing-Country Regions Annual Rate of Change 1969/71 to 1979/81, in Percent Projected Degree of Self-Sufficiency in Developing-Country Regions by Commodity, Annual Rate of Change 1979/81 to 2000, in Percent Yield kg/ha Levels in Developing-Country Regions by Crop, Regions 1979181, in Yield Level Trends in Developing-Country from 1969/71 to 1979/81, in Percent by Crop, Change 175 Table 1. Country Groupings The following groupings of countries are used throughout the report. In some cases exceptions to these groupings had to be accepted due to These exceptions are'marked in the tables. the data available. 1. Temperate South America -Chile, Uruguay Argentina, 2. Tropical ----- South America Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Suriname, Venezuela, 3. Central America Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, 4. East/South Africa Republic, El,Salvador, Mexico, Nicaragua Angola, Botswana, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe 5. Equatorial -AErica Republic, Mozambique, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Madagascar, Rwanda; Uganda, Zaire 6. Humid West Africa Benin, Togo 7. Semi-Arid Cbte d'Ivoire, West Africa Ghana, Guinea, Congo, Gabon, I Liberia, Sierra Leone, Burkina Faso, Chad, Gambia, Nigeria, Senegal Niger, 8. North Africa/Near East Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Afghanistan, Algeria,.Cyprus, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, Yemen A.R., Yemen P.D.R. 9. 10. India South Asia -Bangladesh, 11. South-East Asia Nepal, Sri Lanka Bhutan, Burma, Indonesia, Kampuchea, Korea P:D.R., Korea Rep., Laos, Malaysia,,Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam 12. China 176 Table 2. Socio-Economic and Agricultural -Sector Indicators 5 3 3 3 .r $f : Population, mrllior 1979181 2000 2025 41 52 62 199 315 498 114 186 289 t; !i D .3 If 36 67 127 7L 145 287 1 109 266 390 1.4 3.0 19.6 32.6 52.0 for Develooing-Country -.: e -_ Regions ?' 72 128 236 $76 h34 ‘J92 bH(. 961 1,234 117 192 282 Lib 596 785 995 1,257 1,469 3,233 4,739 6,651 Population density/ ---arable Land -(ha) 1979181 Population, growth rate 1969/7i-i979ta1, Population areas, population 1979181 L of in urbar 0.8 1.9 3.2 2.2 i.a 1.3 2.6 4.i a.7 5.6 9.9 annual x , 1.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 2.5 2.9 .’ . 8 2 . <' 2.4 2.2 1.7 2.2 total 82.2 87.8 92.0 66.2 77.6 85.1 58.8 69.9 79.7 17.8 32.7 50.8 26.8 40.4 5s.2 30.9 47.4 66.6 39.1 53.4 68.3 --__ 22.;' 33.9 53.5 -.-. . 12.4 22.8 40.7 _-.. 27.0 39.1 57.0 25.7 39.1 58.2 _-. 30.3 43.3 60.6 - 2000 - 2025 Undernourished population, of total 1977, populatior population absolute income I 0f Levr rural ".a. 6a.L I 4.5 IL.6 12.8 23.1t 17.4 23.2 24.01 14.7 33.3 32.0 19.0: n.a. n.a. Rural belou poverty i979fai, population I/ 43.8 bl.+ 71.G 65.d I -- 45.2 41.d ".a. 55.5~ 42.8 ".a. n.a. GDPlcaput, USS 1979/81. 1,451 1,273 1,243 291 240 374 507 742? 154 150 41g 310 510 9 " !J 2 GDP, annual growth rate,1969/71-1979/a 2.5 4.2 6.5 2.0 2.2 2.6 5.6 -- 5.c 3.4 3.9 7.72 5.6 .- -- 5.4 Agricultural 1979181, total GOP GDP, x 0f 12.2 GDP1 agric. i979/ai , 1,362 agric. 1979181 USS , 22.1 60.1 27.2 a.7 10.8 a.3 la.1 61.5 77.0 12.7 66.3 1R7.6 560.3 364 275 114 80 204 174 183 93 90 158 n.a. 143.80 11.0 11.5 30.7 28.7 30.8 27.9 13.4 39.5 51.7 25.3 “.a. 2o.ag Agricultural caput of population, --USS Value billion of production, Value ti of agric. ia 443 590 754 280 -312 -256 169 431 -.477 -__ ._ .-.a63 a82 1,906 .__ -. 64& production/arable 1979/81,USSlh Food imports. 1979181, billion Food 1979/81. imports, in X of US ,I 0.7 4.2 3.6 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.8 '4.1 2.6 0.9 5.1 3.0 38.0 GD P I 1.3 1.7 2.6 4.0 2.8 5.1 Repot, ad 3.3 4.8% - .C-ntral -.. 2.5 R&tic, 5.0 .Ccrq, 3.2<' 0.9 _ ---I_: C&m, Ug&a. l(g,. Nqeria, Stii Arabia, 3.19’ “! al bf Cl jl el Tl 91 h/ source: Fof camy Excluding Excltdirg Exclding ErcMiq Exclrdiq Exclujiq Exc1ldit-q FW, gramings, BXsuaM, tiiretiis~. Kmprctwa, Etutm. Brazil, Costa Ztiia, AT 2UX Rica, see Table Lesotho, Korea 1. i/ if kl Viet t+%n. Swim, Vwwwla. 11 ml n/ 01 Excluding ExcluJirg ExcluJiq African Swilad. P.R., Laos, C tv d'Ivoirv, EWkira Faso, Ghan,, Guw~a, Litxria, Cuinea-Biss~, Paritaia, Iran, Lebann, Libya, Senegal. Excltding Algeria, Cyprus, Syria, Turkey, Ymcen A.R. Excluding Excluding Excluding Colarbia, C&a, Zirrbabn. ad 1983; Guyma, Mexico. Pent, Sri Lmka. Lebwm, Yemm A.R., Chiru. kbrld of Uti, Bank, Yeme P.D.R. KS data FRD Fourth files; Wrld kkxld Fad 19&Z. Ba*, Survey, !&rld Bank Develqment UN, Estiwtes Uashingtm; Projections Social Rural ad Irdicators City Data Sheets, 1950-2025: Uashirqtfn Rcwe lpi?'; Rprlatims, The 1980 Afsess.nmt, NRI York, 177 Table 3. Projected Annual Rate Demands of in Developing 1979181 to Country 2000, Regions in Percent " !'y Commod!ty, Change ‘I” -. -_- P m e.u u! 4 Cereals Rice Yheat Maize BarLey Millet, and Roots sorghum others and tubers 3.50 -1.04 3.44 -2.60 and 1.61 2.81 2.08 -1.97 -2.41 3.95 -3.98 -3.44 -2.83 2.92 2.22 -3.2s -2.83 6.20 -3.65 3.49 ---. -3.74 3.19 -2.77 2.46 3.25 4.53 -2.79 2.93 -3.24 --3.36 -3.61 4.70 __ 3.08 --3.43 2.16 __ 3.73 __-2.73 -2.80 -1.81 3.08 --3.5s 6.46 -4.20 0.75 --3.85 2.20 ).57 1.00 2.u 5.24 -3.25 2.57 3.15 2.70 Etl ,3.78 1.76 6.56 _2.46 -2.40 --. 2.39 l.av 2.5(. 5.60 _._ 3.38 2.91 5.65 2.67 5.69 3.94 ).97 2.54 4.04 2.79 4.06 ).25 3.65 4.18 3.31 4.06 5.09 3.83 3.47 3.64 3.38 4.21 1.01 I, I c et 2.71 -1.95 3.83 4.L2 5.33 3.92 -1.69 1.73 -2.55 -3.45 4.33 3.03 -2.90 -2.55 blcfdl ---n.a .n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.a. p* !?.an-a. -2.77 -.2.42 2.37 3.23 3.96 3.2s -2.97 2.87 -. 3.21 -- 3.66 1.99 2.17 3.23 3.36 4.78 5.36 5.82 -Plantain/banana --__ -_. ..--Food -___.legumes Livestock livestock products Large ruminants Smati Milk Vegetables ____ Oilseeds ruminants 4.26 5.09 6.70 -3.96 -2.21 6.56 4.52 3.76 -3.80 3.84 2.11 2.30 3.13 -3.76 -1.96 1.87 3.03 2.L2 3;19 __ 3.55 -.- 2.55 5.06 2.77 -3.18 -4.20 .- 3.23 2.69 2.76 2.r.2 3.48 --_ 3.12 __ -. 7.01 2.48 2.31 3.49 --. 2.74 _-.. 2.24 2.25 1.65 3.84 __ 3.20 n.a. n.a. n.a. “.a. .” .dL -- 3.24 3.18 3.00 3.42 __ 2.89 -- 3.66 2.72 -6.32 3.40 -- -- -_- al bl Cl ii/ el For country groupings, Botswana, Guinea-Bissau. Mongolia. Bhutan. see Lesotho, Table 1. This table uses FAO's scenario B perceptlo" of the year 2000. Excluding Excluding Excluding Excluding Suaziland. source: FAO, AT 2000 data fi\es. Table &. Projected 2000, in Calorie Percent Contributions by Commodity .178 to Diets in DewLoping-Country Regions, ” .s .m e i 82.6 64.1 15.3 2.0 6.1 0.7 66.1 52.a 6.8 4.5 1.4 0.6 F E ” --n.a. _.n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. *.a. 57.8 25.3 lb.9 7.5 l.L 6.7 Cereals -_Rice Uheat MalZe ‘Barley NiLLet cereals Root 5, starchy Roots tubers foods and tubers and and other 32.5 2.5 27.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 -37.1 13.6 12.9 9.1 1.3 0.3 44.9 5.4 12.7 24.0 1.5 1.2 54.0 2.9 5.3 38.0 0.4 7.3 32.7 73 2.6 12.7 0.7 6.7 4.8 3.9 0.9 -1.2 28.2 iz 0.9 9.2 ci 6.1 -1.9 -12.4 a.9 3.5 -4.4 16.5 -73 0.2 7.6 3.8 -1.1 -7.5 20.9 Plantain/banana Food -~ Livestock -3.7 1.6 2.1 s-3 15.3 2.7 0.1 20.6 -18.2 2.4 4.2 -_ 5.2 i.-5 0.2 2.5 1.0 -1.0 -6.4 a.7 44.1 ’ 4s.3 __ la.7 5.0 15.0 0.4 6.2 48.8 7.1 4.7 5.9 0.2 30.9 61.2 7.9 38.7 5.1 2.8 6.8 64.9 32.9 16.6 3.1 1.2 11.1 29.0 23.5 5.5 -1.3 2.7 -0.7 0.3 0.9 0.8 -1.4 15.5 -4.8 i57 a.4 5,4 22.2 -^21.0 1.2 3.5 1.6 1.5 0.1 2.9 -.9.1 1.1 1.3 5.6 1.1 2.1 -.a.7 14.3 7.6 -. 4.6 0.1 0.1 1 I: II.2 -2.0 7.7 -.11.1 .1 3.6 r-i 0.8 1.3 -.. 6.4 5.1 1.3 1.1 _5.4 0.6 0.d 4.0 -1.8 -9.1 10.1 . -. .“:dn.a. “.a. n.a. n.a..“.a. “.a. r.a. n.a. n.a.-. n-a. _. _n.a. 7.6 6.2 1.4 4.2 -7.8 -1Ti 0.L 4.1 1.9 1.6 -; -a.7 12.3 '- -- legumes bJ and livestock products __--Large ruminants Small ruminants MiLk Non-ruminant livestock Vegetables Oilseeds Other --_----_. rota1 food dJ crops __%’ 2.9 03 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.1 10.2 ?:! 100.0 --- 4.0 1.0 0.5 1.6 0.9 -1.2 14.2 -6.1 .__100.0 -._-- 2.5 -.^ 0.4 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.4 -_ -5.2 4.4 7.8 4.7 -1.0 -9.0 20.9 __ 100.0 -10.7 -20.8 100.0 I I : ! j 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ----2,605 100.0 ---_ Total calories 5,277 ! see and fruit, 2,690 i 1 1. 2,764 2,314 2,325 2,320 2,408 2 .245 2,148 -This table uses FAO’s scenario B perception I of the year ..LI 1 100.0 _. n.a. 2.428 2000. 100.0 ----I 2,635 I : a/ bl Cl -1 el Source For-country Excluding Pigaeat, Including Sugar, : groupings, groundnut poultry groundnut citrus fruit, AT 2000 data and Table soybean. eggs. and soybean. cocoa. FAO, files.’ Table 5. Estimated Distribution of CG System Funds to Developing-Country Regrons ?' by Commodity, 1983 in 1,55'000 perate lth /kerica +- I I Tnpical ( Sanh -&ric - :-Cmt ral &wica ._ . . ,,zsl 1,161 770 966 770 1 EastlSarth 1 E@torial limid Lest _. . Africa _ __~_. Semi-Arid bkzt Africa i-Nwth Afr,ca/ l&3 I : I Chra ! -7I Develaplng All Ccuvr1es -__- .---. 47 651 A23,603 7,648 Africa Near East _ I - ____ 8.585 -3.319 1.106 2.182 Cereals Rice Wheat Maize Barley Sorghum flitlet RDots, L starchy Cassava Potato Sweet Yam Cocoyam Starchy Foodlegues Chickpea Cowpea Faba Lentil Phaseolus Pigeopea Soybean Livestock Ruminant diseases Ruminant. oroduction bean bean Groundnut banana potato ttbers foods 1,559 67 770 722 * 1,228 2,026 133 974 939 - b 241 .L 3,388 a53 * 583 2,868 LO2 Bb9 Is,115 Z&G2 w 2,753 610 386 ; : -I 7,279 6,501 392 386 1436 -I 1,334 . ...102 - I-I ! i I i I / to Ccxmuht 51.3 25.4 its I i / I 392 a.2 9.2 a72 570 288 98 3ab .963 a.498 1,707 3,240 2,955 1-a 3.5 3.2 -b8b 484 1.929 973 901 417 4s 863 iii 725 2 439 .L1,3&C 571 100 L2 5c 3,184 2,293 195 333 35 328 I t 1.980 I i , 1 97s 589 450 9a 41 b8b -cat 484 -L8L 484 1 376 -L836 562 --.- 13 217 -L 6,449 5,214 393 416 89 lb.1 6.9 5.6 .0-L 0.6 0.1 0.7 -15.5 1.5 3.3 1 I 2.5 l.L Oi6 4.3 0.8 I , / 0.9 19.1 -6.0 , / 13.1 100.0 956 4aL -237 328 1,066 908 959 1 561 _1--.. 731 965 -487 i 170 237 j! I 2,021 -- 1 , I I / / 3 950 2--.-. 623 2,296 i I I 755 276 740 26651 -I 759 .1,166 j : j -_ -. 656 lb I-. 332 1,382 3,080 2,296 1,316 755 1 .a62 I 1 j - 1.066 9G8 789 671 159 ; ! _I 478 1 I- 159 _-. -- 3,947 76il 796, 17 tos' -..'L-... 5,535 2 881 -L-- 960 -_- Qcy 2,027 2 970 A-.2,046 924 9,188 716 792 926 1 2,042 670 1 392 13.257 4.116 2.881 z,zBo 960 976 6,871 5,116 l,,zs? I 12,173 I i t 8264 I- Total 9.316 6 050 A- 1 10 106 A- 4 233 L. - -- 1 436 1-- L al For country groupings, see Table 1. 180 Table 6. Estimated in Percent Distribution of Total 1 r Cereals Rice Uheat Maize Barley Sorghum Millet Roots, starchy cassava potato Sweet Yam Cocoyam Starchy Food Chickpea cowpea Faba bean Groundnut Lentil Phaseolus Pigeonpea Soybean Livestock Ruminant Ruminant diseases production -16.3 -5.4 7.9 bean banana legumes -1.7 -7.4 -6.3 9.3 potato tubers foods and -3.7 -14.6 15.1 -6.0 6.5 9.3 -3.3 0.3 10.1 8.5 -7.2 5.2 10.1 10.3 33.4 6.9 4.9 10.1 11.4 lb.9 3.0 _ r I ’ of CG System for Each Funds to Funds Commodity Developing-Country Regions r?' by Commodrty, 1983, ..-. 2 ,’ ;iz 1-9.9 2.5 37.5 4.7 49.7 T. 4 03 - ‘C 22 k? E ” -.- l -- (’ I 000) 47.651 23,603 I -4.3 0.6 12.7 11.1 4.6 3.1 a.9 - -la.0 14.1 13.0 67.4 67.0 ,x 10.2 5.1 4.5 29.6 33.0 14.3 -7.9 11.7 -15.3 27.5 5.1 4.5 -3.0 5.6 1.3 17.5 10.0 a.0 4.5 7,648 8,498 1,707 3,240 2,955 -6.5 2.1 13.9 la.4 20.8 10.9 25.4 10.1 60.7 50.0 -24.0 35.6 49.6 80.0 39.3 50.0 -6.7 15.8 4.5 .7.0 25.0 9.9 -3.7 9.3 -3.7 9.3 - -3.7 9.3 -10.4 12.9 10.4 13,217 6,449 5,214 393 616 18.3 a9 656 -14.1 60.5 100.0 -27.6 45.1 -6.7 -10.9 23.7 -la.6 54.9 - 14,352 I 6.0 27.0 23.0 /. i / I ~ 1,382 3,080 2,294 I ; 12.9 100.0 20.0 17.0 60.0 -17.0 36.6 20.0 11.6 -12.1 11.4 23.2 7.0 87.1 100.0 1,316 755 3,947 760 796 : 16.8 -37.0 7.6 9.7 14.3 7.6 -_ - I / -- - _- 17 -L 708 5,535 Total -- allocations I 1 groupings, 1986 23.7 a.0 -7.4 j .53.8 '4.3 12,173 -2.4 10.0 -6.5 9.9 .-. 10.9 -- 14.3 a.9 ! -1.5 : 1 92,908 I I Isee Table 1. -. _A-.. __ ----- /- .- al For country source: IARC Program and Budget Documents for 1983 actual expenditures. 181 Table 7. Calorie in Percent Contribution of Regional to Diets Total in Developing-Country Regions Et by Commodity, lq79fa1, - 93 5 ‘: 3z Cereals Rice Wheal Maize 33-t -i-z 30.7 1.4 0.2 37.3 --14.9 12.8 9.3 0.3 -47.6 5.1 11.4 35.0 0.6 3 9: -26.2 __ 9.5 2.3 8.4 0.1 2.1 3.8 37.5 18.3 4.5 10.6 1.9 2.2 48.2 -6.8 4.6 58.5 -6.0 39.6 5.0 2.6 3.5 1 .o .f 3 b6.t 3s.z la.5 3.1 0.7 5.8 5.2 0.4 80.9 68.0 9.9 2.5 0.1 67.9 56.1 4.7 6.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 t ,.. 5 -_65.0 35.4 18.4 7.7 0.6 1.5 1.4 .5” if -1 ;tj -60.1 29.3 17.5 7.6 0.8 2.4 2.3 46.9 3.0 5.7 33.4 3.2 1.4 ear 1ey Sorghum MlICet Root 5 _..,. tubers -.-! stav.b. Cassava potato Sweet Yam potato fs& and 5.6 0.1 13.1 18.0 4.7 c-i 3.3 0.6 -11.9 5.7 2.0 0.3 0.1 4.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 -23.0 la.1 0.7 1.6 46.4 3x-i 0.7 4.5 1.. 1 0.3 35.2 16.0 0.1 0.5 9.5 3.4 20.9 -a.4 0.1 0.3 9.4 1.3 0.1 - 1.7 -1.3 0.1 0.1 2.5 ii3 0.9 0.1 3-? 0.5 0.8 0.9 7.6 4.0 0.5 1.5 12.1 -0.z 0.7 11.1 0.1 9.1 2.6 0.9 ; 3.9; 0.5: 0.1 0.1 1.0; / Cocoyam Other roots tubers PLantainlbanana Food legumes and 0.1 0.6 0.9 Ki 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 and 22.6 15.6 4.7 11.5 5.7 4.1 3.7 0.9 -1.6 0.1 0.4 6.0 1.1 10.2 2.0 4.4 3.6 -0.8 3.1 0.1 0.2 2.8 5.1 i-3 0.2 2.1 0.9 -0.9 3.3 0.p 0.8 1.6 3.6 0.7 2.9 iT-i 0.1 0.7 1.0 -1.0 -4.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.9 -1.7 7.6 0.) 6.4 0.9 3.0 i-3 0.3 1.0 0.7 -1.0 7.3 0.1 5.2 2.0 5.0 i-7 0.4 2.6 0.9 -1.7 4.8 0.1 0.7 4.0 3.7 -4.4 0.1 2.1 5.4 0.5 0.1 4.4 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.4 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.5 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.8 7.6 7.7 0.1 4.2 0.4 5.7 -2.7 0.1 0.1 2.4 __.0.7 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.4 5.4-. 2.5 1.4 0.1 1.4 0.8 --0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.1 0.3 -3.2 El 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.1 ;-:: 0:l' 0.2 0.6 1 ; / I 1.3 -5.4 2.9 0.1 I Chickpea Coupe.3 Dry bean Faba bean Groundnut LenriL Pigeonpea Soybean Livestock :' 4.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 livestock product -Large ruminants Small ruminants Milk Other livestock c 3.0 -..0.1 2.6 0.3 -1.a 3.0 ET3 0.7 2.0 2.4 -.0.s 0.1 1.6 0.4 -0.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 1.0 3.1 0.4 0.3 2.4 -1.4 3.0 l.B 0.8 0.4 a.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 7.5 -1.7 -1.4 6.2 i-2 0.1 1.7 3.4 -1-s 2.9 0.4 0.7 1.8 I I 4.3 -1.7 -6.0 Vegetables Oilseeds coconut OiL palm Other Fish o)Lseeds and fish 1.4 products Freshwater Other food 0.5 fish 4, 0.7 L0.1 0.6 xi -28.3 100.0 0.6 0.c 16.7 0.7 0.5 1.3 0.2 1.1 ii2 0.2 do.1 0.2 Ki 0.7 0.4 1.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.5 _".a i commodities rl' -30.0 100.0 31.7 10.8 11.5 13.1 25.7 -17.5 100.0 -9.2 100.0 -- -13.0 100.0 -7.7 100.0 --_ -16.0 100.0 rota1 '100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 --- Total calories 3,178 2,514 2,655 2,047 2.153 2,120 2,290 2.594 2,056 i,a9d --- 2,414 2,428 -.-l- 2,349 + al bl Cl jl For country Mixture: where Pigmeat, This group mainly pouttry, comprises groupings, see mainly Phaseolus Vigna sp. eggs. other food crops and all other commodities -I1. except -- Table sp., for India, South and South-East Asia and China, that.contribute to nutrition. Source: FAO, ICS data files. 182 Table L 8 Protein in Percent Contribution of Regional dt to Total Diets in Developing-Country Regions bl -by Commodity, 1979181, -g,; IS Cet-ealS Rice Uheat Maize Barley 21.4 1.0 19.7 0.7 -r’ I 5 3 ;. m -q .v rk L. < -- -__ 31.8 11.8 2.1 10.8 1.5 5.6 - -- --_ 2 i .-- -m E .u F$ 32.6 12.9 12.9 0.8 Ii% -42.4 5.0 11.9 25.5 .A J St ‘L $2 .-_ 51.0 2.9 6.4 36.3 2.9 2.5 5 4 09 - .r 4s 40.5 -20.3 5.7 11.0 1.3 2.2 49.6 ‘m .u $2 L “’ r B 99 _-- g --67.7 7-i.i 21.0 3.5 3.9 7.0 ai 3 .-:. 69.2 11.1 2.0 61.5 51.4 4.5 5.6 2 r ‘: , 55.5 28.6 18.9 5.3 1.0 1.7 54.4 -25.3 18.1 5.5 1.7 2.1 1.7 72 5.2 4.8 11.3 21.4 58.1 _ ,.l 40.7 4.8 3.3 2.7 1.5 Roots, starchy Cassava Potato Sweet tubers foods and 2.4 --2.4 3.6 -_ 1.3 1.0 5.9 K-6 12.9 __ a.2 2.6 . and 1.3 -0.5 -7.7 - " 7.7 _. -8.3 -5.4 2.1 -17.0 1.8 -5.3 10.1 6.5 0.5 7.1 1.2 3.4 2.0 10.3 6.7 1.3 4.0 3.6 0.9 1.3 4.9 4.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 3.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 -3.9 1.2 -10.9 5.2 -6.3 7.0 _ 1.0 2.4 1.0 l.L 7.9 ix 6.6 2.2 6.1 2.0 ! -15.9 5.3 9.7 1.6 0.9 5.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 5.0 -2.7 1.0 1.7 potato Yam Cocoyam Other roots tubers Plantain/banana Food Chickpea Cowpea Dry faba bean bean Cl legumes Groundnut Lentil Pigeonpea Soybean Livestock and 58.0 38.1 8.3 11.6 -1.6 livestock products --‘Large ruminants -40.0 13.2 9.7 17.1 1.6 -- 33.0 8.3 10.7 14.0 -1.5 -- -19.1 10.3 5.9 2.9 -2.5 - 13.4 _ 7.2 3.1 3.1 -4.6 -a.3 3.1 2.6 2.6 4.0 -.-_' 13.3 5.7 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.0 -- 16.5 4.2 2.1 5.4 4.8 2.7 ._ _- 7.9 -_ 6.5 T-T -10.4 2.4 19.2 -2.3 -19.1 4.8 4.1 Small Mitk Other ruminants livestock !' 7.9 3.0 8.0 lb.9 4.7 - 10.2 -3.1 - Vegetables Oi lseeds coconut Oil palm Other Fish oilseeds and fish -3.9 --- --. -3.1 - products Freshwater Other food ---_ commodities ~Total -3.6 fish e, - -6.7 -6.2 7.0 x-i 7.0 7.0 12.2 -3.0 11.2 -_2.8 2.1 __ 3.0 7.0 .._. 3.: 14.5 -7-L 4.7 - -4.8 12.5 -7.8 100.0 -8.6 -9.1 13.3 13.8 -4.1 15.8 _.. 100.0 -. -_ 6.6 4.2 -. 100.0 .- -2.8 100.0 3.9 100.0 -8.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 --- 100.0 100.0 100.0 . -. -- Total protein in g 58 31 34 20 20 23 25 53 23 20 29 30 29 (corrected) Total (crude) protein in g 101 59 68 48 43 46 56 71 -. 50 41 55 59 57 al F;I c/ df Corrected For country Mainly Pigmeat, This the amino-acid quality. groupings, see Table,l. except for India Phaseolus sp., by and and China, where mainly Vigna that sp. contrlbute to nutrition. poultry, group FAO, comprises ICS data eggs. other files. food crops el Source: all other commodities Table 9. Ranking -- of food Commodities my Calorie Contribution -.Calorie cmtrihrtim in percmt 3 3’2% 1elpzrate Scuth Anerica Tr~ical Scuth bnerica cmtrat Anerica ast’Scuth ,frica ._E I to Diets a’ ,n Develop\ng-Countly Reglow bf \:ommodrtles of equai run; -_- are -AS lndic.itd by squate brackets.1 _I--_.s.ratoria( rfrica imid PSI --Africa wui!l --- China Wheat Ra i ze Raire CdSSJV.4 Wheat .----- 1529.9% Rice CJSSJVJ Millet -._- .- _~._ __10-14.9x I.. rumin. Rice Wheat wheat --Maize ____. Sorghum +- .-____-- I i(:ce Wheat fill Developing Cantries RlCC _-_.--- tlce __-__. lheat Rice Wheat -.--j-.-. -.. - ---_ ;w. potatc ~ 5-9.9X Maize Cassava Rice Wheat Rice Maize Plan/ban. ._Yam Oil palm Plan/ban. Yam CJSSJV.3 Rict Maize Ol! oat'l ---i-------. wheat --.. Maize -laire Maize -14.9% Milk potato Vegetables Maize Rice ---~ Wheat Cou.3ea G~OUIXMU? Sorghum ‘B-J~l~y I.-i’lllk Vegetables potato L. rumin. Mi I let Maize Milk thickpea Vegetables Dry beanPigeonpea hire Milk PI an/b. L. rumin. Plan’ban. C potato C Dry Milk . Wheat CJSSJVJ COCOnUt potato I su. Plan/ban. Vegetables C Soybean legetabler iorghum !il let ;oybean bead’ IMi 1 k Dry bead’ PLanlban. L. rumin. Sorghum Rice PLan/ban. Tii lk L. rumin. Dry be&’ Hi llet Groundnut Vegetables Oil palm Barley Chickpea Groundnut Lentil Soybean C Barley SW. potato Iut bean Idnut vegetables potato Sorghum CJSSJVJ SW. potato Groundnut Chickpea Faba bean Oil palm IZ coconut Coupea -Yam Gonut Vegetables oil palm potato Pigeonpea Cowpea Chickpea i I I I SW. potaip Dry beamMillet Oil palm Groundnut Wheat Sorghum L. rumin. Yam Vegetables Wheat COcOyam Groundnut Millet Sorghum Vegetables - SW. potato CJSSJVJ sn. orghum I Millet Milk Vegetables Dry bean ,.- --.-_L. rumin. Milk ;;; ..- - -...--- ;lk potato Cocoyam earley coupea Pigeonpea 5. rumin. Soybean - r Soybean BJrley coconut Dry be&’ Potato C !39 C coconut ,Potato ,S. rumin. Soybean ChIckpea faba bean Oil palmt, Dry beanS. rumin. Lentil Groundnut -.__.[I r CJSSJVJ potato Barley Oil palm Plan/ban. coconut SW. potato LLentil Groundnut 5. rumin. Soybean -SW. PO1:JtO Potato ..-- --_ :aba bean ‘Otato -. 3arley )ry be&’ ;roundnut __ rumin. ‘Iilk :JSSJVJ 7 .OCOYJlT j. rumin. Potato Barley ,Oil palm Chickpea Groundnut C‘Soybean Yam Groundnut palm c Oil lbrley potato L. rumin. :assav; 3 in. k r”m’ ?illet *getat ,les Chickpr Fd )ry be: rr? Lent i L = 3arley :OWpeJ 3iI pal .” 5. rumi I”. -. 1 L Dry ,bea&’ Milk Millet T-E Chickpea Sorghum L r rcoconut - Faba bean Pigeonpea cocoram coupea r Lentil 12. rumin. _- ..--- --_. __-.---. af 61 Cl a/ - Derived from Table 7. For country groupings, Mostly Phaseolus sp. Mostly Vigna ~- see Table 1. L. 5. rumin. rumin. = Large = Small ruminants rumrnants su. potato PlJdUJ”. = Sweet potato = Plantain/banana Table -- 10. Rankxng of Food Commodities by Protein Contribution fo Diets al I" Developlny-Country Regio"sf+ (Commodities of eoual rank are ?ndlcated by square brackets.) _--_I Protein ccntriixtim in percmt wtorial ,frica tmid Csc Africa Semi-Arid &.t Afnca --&xrh ear _Uhear Afrlcal East India ku:h Asia jarthfas; .sia ChrM 5 30% L. rumin. rla1ze Rice Rice 15-29.9X Wheat Rice Millet Wheat Rice Wheat Rice Wheat ----_ 10-14.9x L. iKce rumin. -t-L. rumin. Rice Maize Dry bean! Maize Sorghum Wheat Wheat Milk Wheat _5-9.9x Eilk Milk Dry Maize , .--! t .---Wheat Cassava Milk .C.3SSaVa L. rumin. Groundnut Yam wheat cassava Rice coupea Yam L. rumin. Wheat Milk Rice Milk Millet Chickpea Maize .._ Mai re SW. potat< bla i ze beak’ L. rumin. Dry bead' Rice - r Millet 14.93 Potato Vegatables Rice Vegetables L Gssava Plan/ban.potato Vegetables Groundnut r Rice L Dry beak' Sorghum Hillet Vegetables Groundnut Vegetable Milk su. potat Maize c Plan/ban. Sorghum C Groundnut Vegetables L. rumin. Milk naire Groundnut S. rumi". Milk Cocoyam Vegetables c C3SXV.3 Maize L. rumin. Barley Sorghum Vegetables S. rumin. Eitlet Chickpea Sorghum -Vegetables Maize Dry bea$' L. rumin. Milk Maize Soybean Wheat Vegetabtes L. rumin. CS3SS.3VFJ Groundnut r - Cocoyam CMillet Plan/ban. Dry beaL' Sorghum C Eba bean Pigeonpea - L. rumin Mi 1 let Groundnu' Dry bear: C Sorghum L. rumin. Milk vegetables Dry bean Sorghum I-z:: Soybean jsw. potato Tz_:x:t Faba bean r- Potato 50.9% Maize Dry bead' Dry beak' Faba bean Lentil potato - al bl Cl ?I Derived from Table 8. For country groupings, Nostly Pheseolus sp. Mostly Vigna -- see Table 1. L. S. rumin. rumin. = Large = Small ruminants ruminants SW. potato Plan/ban. = Sweet potato = Plantain/banana Table --- 11. Ranking of Commodities by CG System Allocation, Calorie Contribution ‘i? Diet>, Pr<,teln Contribution to Diets, and Value of Production, I” Percent --I cci System 1983 to commoditiesa’ Calorie 19?9/31~' contribution to diets r-Protein 19791aTC’ contribution to diets ..--_ Value 1979l81d’ of --~.. production __-_ -- Allocations _ % Rice Ruminants Maize Wheat Cassava Potato Phaseolus Sorghum Cowpea Millet Faba Barley Chickpea Groundnut Soybean Pigeonpea Lentil Starchy Yin Sweet cocoyan potato banana bean bean 25.4 19.1 9.2 8.2 6.9 5.6 4.3 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.L 0.4 0.1 Rice Wheat Maize sweet Ruminants Cassava Sorghum Millet Dry bean:’ potato X 29.3 17.5 7.6 3.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 bean 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Rice Wheat Ruminants Maize Dry bean%’ _ % 25.3 18.1 a.9 5.5 2.L 2.1 1.7 1.7 potato 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 ----~ . .._ ---- __.. --.---_ ._.. X Rice Ruminants Sweet Wheat Maize Pla”ta>n/banana Yam Potato Soybean Groundnut Dry Millet Sorghum Chickpea Barley CaSSdVd Cocoyam Faba cowpea Lentil Pi geonpra -bean bea8 potato 19.6 12.7 6.6 5.0 3.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 Sorghum Barley Millet Sueet Soybean Chickpea Groundnut Faba Potato Cassava Cocoyam Coupea Lentil Pi geonpea Plantain/banana Yam bean Plantain/banana Potato Barley Chickpea Groundnut Soybean Yam faba Pigeonpea Cocoyam Covpea Lentil Sub-Total 100.0 Sub-Total Other agricultural products not currently covered by CG System 75.6 Sub-Total Other agricultural products not currently covered by CG System 73.9 Sub-Total Other agricultural products not curre”tly covered by CG System 61.1 26.6 26.1 38.9 Total 100.0 Total 100.0 Total 100.0 Total 100.0 al F;I Cl aI el From From From From Mixture: Table Table Table Table 5. 7. 8. 12 mainly Phaseolus 2-p .-, except in India. South Asia, South-East Asia and China, when it is mainLy Vigna _.-- sp. -. Table 12. Value of in Percent Production of Total in Developing-Country Regional Value of Regions Production Cl by Commodity, 1979181, -; ,; ;j Cereals Rice Uhest Maize Barley Sorghum Hitlet ROOtS 1_1--starchy CaSS.3V.3 -9 9 ‘C $2 ? ” II -9.1 > " 'L 2: Cb PY -- . ..-. 1817 0.p 7.5 6.5 0.3 3.2 0.2 tubers foods and -2.9 2.4 potato 0.4 12.9 6.5 0.9 5.4 0.1 0.2 - .% E ,F 51 -14.6 ‘2.) 1.8 7.7 0.3 2.5 9 Ps q ‘: ,Pz -19.4 2.0 1.1 13.7 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 1.7 11.6 _.-. 6.7 2.3 L w 2 .r 6 - .-. 42.8 29.1 8.0 1.2 0.4 1.8 2.2 60.6 57.8 1.8 0.8 0.1 45.9 42.2 0.1 2.9 0.4 0.1 0.2 34.4 ..22.8 5.6 4.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 ,":: 0.9 / I I 30.8 19.6, 5.0 3.8 i 1 Ci 14-2 _2.3 1.5 3.2 7.1 25.3 --4.7 13.5 1.9 3.6 1.0 0.6 9.0 i-2 2.1 0.4 0.3 7.4 0.f 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 -12.5 3.3 1.4 2.7 -39.8 4.7 1.4 8.1 4.1 0.9 35.2 7-2 0.6 23.2 4.9 SO.0 1.6 0.1 0.6 41.8 4.5 0.1 -3.4 2.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 3.2 iTi 8.2 1.3 0.9 2.9 19.0 1.5 17.2 13.0 -: 0.5 1.6 6.6 1.9 0.3 : I i / Potato Sweet Yami COCOyam Other roots and 0.2 4.0 -9.2 0.1 5.3 4.3 0.6 :' 2.2 0.1 0.4 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.0 5.1 0.z 0.2 1.8 2.2 3.3 17.3 -6.9 0.1 4.1 2.6 5.2 -2.3 0.3 2.7 2.1 0.1 2.7 0.2 1.9 4.8 0.7i 0.1 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 ! j I j i i : j 1.4 -6.5 2.4 0.1 :.4 0.6 iJ . 8 0.4 4.5 and products 52.0 32.6 1.5 c' 9.7 8.3 -3.2 -2.0 6.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 tubers Plantain/banana Food legumes Chickpea cowpea Dry bean Faba bean Groundnut Lentil Pigeonpea Soybean Livestock livestock Large Small Milk Other Vegetables Oilseeds Coco""t Oil Other Other Non-food palm ruminants ruminants Livestock 32.3 -11.8 0.4 a.1 12.1 -2.6 0.8 0.1 0.1 -33.8 9.3 0.3 11.4 12.0 -3.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 1.3 19.2 15.2 27.6 i4.2 1.8 6.8 4.8 -6.2 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.9 -8.0 -19.2 100.0 12.3 ..6.0 0.9 1.5 4.0 -3.8 -2.1 0.1 1.5 0.6 -8.4 15.1 5.3 i3 0.6 0.4 2.6 -3.9 3.6 0.4 2.3 0.9 25.8 -14.8 15.1 5.6 3.0 2.4 4.2 -4.6 3.5 cl7 2.1 1.3 30.6 -6.5 5.9 13.7 4.5 10.4 -2.5 15.0 0.3 0. v 12.0 1.6 11.9 1.6 0.5 12.6 -.. 3.7 0.9 5.8' 2.0 13.6 2.8 0.2 0.5 10.1 -7.5 6.3 3.0 2.8 28.1 _2.5 0.7 1.2 23.7 -8.6 0.9 0.1 0.8 -2.0 -4.3 100.0 -25.2 5.6 1.3 5.8 12.5 -7.6 2.1 tz 0.5 1.1 -a.2 -8.3 100.0 oilseeds food crops crops e' 2' 2.0 11.6 -3.2 100.0 0.6 -16.2 -17.0 2.5 16.5 -8.1 100.0 0.5 -3.2 -11.0 0.5 -6.2 -10.3 Total 100.0 100.0 Value of in billion commoditie US'6 22.1 60.1 2T.2 6.7 10.8 61.5 12.7 66.3 187.6 560.3 Fish and fish fish and 3.0 3.2 L 1.3 0.1 0.2 -L 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.6 0.6 6.6 -2.7 21.2 -14:4 qo.1 6.1 Ki 0.9 0.6 1.3 ix 1.1 0.2 2.1 0.p 5.7 0.9 2.5 1.7 31.1 L.4 -12.4 3.6 100.0 17.0 products Freshwater Value fish in of fish products billion USS I' al bl cl if ;I -il - For Hainly country groupings, see except fruit, cotton, eggs. Table for cocoa. jute f. India, South and South-East Asia and+China, where mainly Vigna sp. Phaseolus pouttry, citrus fruit, tea, sp., tobacco, on value value of and Pigmeat, Sugar, Coffee, and hard fibres, rubber. countries (e.g. of fodder crops. fish which, Thailand). 1981; therefore, Figures based overestimates of imports catches of ICS data Series, into developing fishmeat producers FAO, The Rome 1982. of fresh/frozen Chile, Peru and Food and Agriculture source: -- FAO, AT 2000 FAO Agricultural files; No. 14, State Table 13. Ranking ---- of Food Commodities value of pmbcticn in percent Wnverate Sarth hrica -__ -.centrat Prrprica Mitt ay Value of Producrion- al r” Developing-Country Regions!’ ---- (Commodities of equal rank are indicated by sware brackets.) -.qatorial \fr1ca -___ imid Uest Africa *i-Arid kst Africa Ikxth Africa1 India Sarth Alla knJth+ast ,sia Flcar East ‘), 30% 15-29.92 L. rumin. Yam Rice Rice -Plan/ban. Yam Rice --10-14.9x L. rumin. . . rumin. laize Milk Wheat Vegetables Milk Vegetable 5-9.9x Milk Uheat Ma i 2e Milk Soybean Rice Maize Plan/ban. VegetablEf Dry bear+ potato CaSSaVa L. rumin. Maize Plan/ban. mlilk legetables ‘Lanlban. SW. potato Rice L. rumin. __-- Rice Plan/ban. ~-Cocoyam Vegetables Oil palm E&;dnu L. rumin. CaSSaVa t Millet L. rumin. L. 5. rumin. rumin. Uheat Milk Vegetables 14.9% Soybean Sorghum c Vegetables Potato S. rumin. Groundnut Vegetablts Dry bea”Sorghum Rice Wheat :assava ;w. potato ;roundnut 2ice j;, bea&’ j. rumin. ‘Otato Ilillet Sorghum 4heat cassava Dry beaL’ Yalll Vegetables Groundnut Maize Millet ??ilk Oil potato palm vegetables cocoyan Groundnut Sorghum S. rumin. &pea Milk Rice Oil palm C.3SS.SVa Rice Barley potato Maize hickpea - Sorghum Chickpea Groundnut Plillet potato Dry beaz Sorghum Plaize Plqnlba”. c L. rumin. Plan/ban. Vegetables SW. potatc potato Wheat Coco”“t = Coco”“t Maize SW. potato c L. rumin. potato Mi Lk Sorghum Plan/ban. C Yam Potato Soybean 5. rumin. Groundnut Dry bean L. rumin. palm - Oil Plan/ban. CaSSaVd G NJ Maize Plan/ban. -. P1 geonpea S. rumin. = SW. potst L. rumin. Coco”“t Barley Lentil cassava c 0.9% Rice Dry be&’ SW. potato Barley Millet Plan/ban. Lentil Uheat SW. potato Groundnut 5. runin. YWl Sorghum potato su. potato Chickpea cSoybean Coco”“t :oconut Pigeonpea Gybean 3il palm Garley Chickpea Coupea Txoyam -5. rumin. Sorghum TOWpea Pigeonpea - Coco”“t Millet k- ,;;:;;o Sorghum Milk COCO”“t LDry beak’ su. potato -. Groundnut Rlllet - Faba bean bead’ Potato Dry be&’ Soybean -Coco”“t S. rumin. Kaize Chickpea 5 .u $2 .cw gi -60.8 .--. 3.1 33.7 4.1 11.7 6.0 2.2 .m 4 --. 104.4 -.40.1 22.4 5.9 7.8 16.4 17.8 0.1 $ -..-_ 13.8 12.4 0.8 0.5 5 f G -_46.4 . ..36.0 0.3 8.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 ” 4 cc F 'i " -.._. 90.5 -.. 33.6 20.9 19.9 1:3 2.0 4.0 g 2,‘2 ---407.9 -137.5 96.7 77.2 16.5 40.0 40.0 12.7 0.7 0.8 8.9 0.3 2.0 -10.2 0.4 0.3 7.2 0.1 1.3 0.9 23.3 .-_ 0.9 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.2 -2.0 0.1 0.1 ’ 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.5 2.0 7.7 12.7 4.1 _-. 3.3 0.1 0.5 0.2 -1.8 1.3 0.B 2.9 -_ 1.3 0.1 1.5 -7.1 5.5 0.1 1.3 0.7 -. 0.6 1.2 _-0.3 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.5 3.2 0.3 1.0 31.8 13.9 4.6 11.0 2.3 pofato 0.5 -0.4 0.1 -4.4 1.7 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.s 24.6 7.1 a.8 4.5 0.9 2.7 0.6 -0.7 18.7 -4.1 10.3 0.2 --0.9 0.3 1.3 -17.2 __ 0.1 1.5 2.7 -. -9.3 -2.2 a.6 -77.4 7.5 -1.8 -14.8 -1.7 7.0 -. 0.3 0.1 0.1 -3.7 0.1 0.9 1.2 13.2 --. -2.7 -3.0 0.2 0.1 2.2 0.1 0.1 -1.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -1.4 -0.3 -1.9 -17.7 77.5 9.5 5.8 21.3 3.4 11.9 1.6 3.0 21.2 -9.0 75.6 __ -25.5 51.3 __ 679.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.7 2.3 1.7 faba bean Groundnut LentiL Pigeonpea Soybean Vegetables ___Oilseeds -Other Non-food food crops crops ef I II 1.9 0.2 -4.9 -0.8 -0.6 0.3 0.5 -1.4 -3.3 -2.5 0.2 0.1 -1.6 -0.8 -1.7 -15.0 -0.8 -1.0 -2.1 -1.5 -11.1 -0.3 0.1 -2.0 -5.9 -4.7 -5.6 -5.6 -0.7 -0.9 Total -21.3 -67.5 -23.9 -40.8 84.1 164.0 139.4 --- ___ -_ _-- -.. -- _ _-.. .-- -_-_ al bl cl dl ef for Mainly where sugar, country groupings, available sp., Vigna fruit, tobacco, sp. see for except fruit, cotton, Table in 1. and starchy and banana. South-East Asia and China, India, South NO jntormation Phaseolus mainly citrus tea, cocoyam Coffee, cocoa. jute and hard fibres, rubber, fodder crops. source: FAO, AT 2000 and ICS data files. 189 Table -- 15. Production of Production in Developing-Country of All Developing Regions Countries 5' by Commodity, 1979181, in Percent 3 0 ‘: $Z a le Total -- -. % _Wheat flaize Barley Sorghum NiLLet Roots tubers and -.z-starchy foods TaTPotato Sweet potato lam Cocoyam Other roots and tubers Plantain/banana Food legumes --Chickpea Coupca Dry bean 5' Faba bean Groundnut Lentil Pigeonpea Soybean Livestock and Jivestock products Larqe ruminants Small ruminants Milk Other livestock 5' Vegetables Oilseeds Coconut Oil palm Other oilseeds Fish and fish Droduc t s Other Non-food food crops cpops " 5' Zf ii-2 0.8 0.6 1.1 4.0 r3 0.1 la.5 20.3 1.2 11.1 25.9 12.5 9.3 0.1 0.3 72.9 40.7 1.6 2.4 4.4 T 88.9 0.4 11.0 t 'i u illim etric -...-- ten s 5.9 4.7 1.9 13.4 0.9 0.9 c-2 5.8 0.3 1.9 15.1 2.0 2.6 1.8 9.7 2.4 12.7 0.3 5.6 0.5 2.0 2.1 1.5 x-c 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.6 3.8 5.9 lb.5 1.6 2.4 4.2 5.0 32.6 17.8 2.8 --F 1.4 7.6 4.4 1.1 2 29.5 5.4 62.0 12.2 7.0 2.8 Ki 15.9 0.2 1.8 2.0 32.8 1.1 7.4 1KX 0.4 2::; 7.8 45.3 0.8 13.4 i-EC LP.! 26.1 4.c 15.1 13.4 --_. 19.0 -xix 21.9 4.3 9.5 26.5 34.8 4.2 'ZX la.8 1.1 4.5 c-7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.3 ci.T 2.6 0.6 17.6 2-53 0.4 9.0 6.8 1.0 2.0 7.5 277 6.3 5.3 0.1 2.8 -37.2 38.9 37.5 40.7 14.7 lb.3 21.9 49.2 -2-T 31:1 87.9 24.9 100.0 itK-0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1oo.o 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 lLlo.o 7x-6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1oo.o 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 iam 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 .-..-.-- 763.7 _._--. 3b6.2 157.7 149.1 21.3 43.0 26.4 397.9 122.1 49.8 1LO.l 21.3 4.9 2.7 57.0 61.8 _ 5.9 1.4 lC.b 3.8 a.2 0.9 2.0 29.G 127.2 15.0 L.2 ~C8.r, n.a. 155.5 9.0 z-3 5.0 ".a. n-a. .__. 7.5 2K-2 13.7 0.7 1.7 1.1 2.8 -67 217 0.5 0.6 3.2 3.6 13.8 s 2:s 13.0 2.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 2.0 6.5 8.1 1.1 9.6 5.0 -2.4 G 0.7 6.0 -6.1 -11.3 -8.8 0.2 is 3.0 0.1 3.3 4.2 12.7 8.2 2sTf 4.4 6.6 2.6 -1.7 3.8 T 278:: 20.5 x-2 22.9 2.5 4.0 0.8 0.2 49.1 13.8 22.6 3.4 15.0 10.4 -3.6 4.1 i-3 2.8 5.9 15.1 -21.1 219 -I 0.7 4.1 A+ 415 2.7 3.0 5.1 0.3 1.7 L.0 2.2 1.8 0.6 -1.3 -E 0:9 1.3 -0.9 1.5 i-6 -I_ 4.1 0.7 --r 0.4 2.6 7.9 28.4 7-53 24.2 38.9 43.0 91.4 1.4 a.2 ix 9.2 28.7 1.7 21.6 -10.8 2.8 3.7 0.4 i-I-2 1.2 0.4 0.2 5.3 0.2 9.2 0.1 1.1 5.0 6.4 33 1.8 1.0 9.6 11.7 35.9 m 65.8 5.3 31.1 -a,9 14.6 0.2 19.0 Y lb.3 69.5 14.6 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.3 -0.8 2.6 TIT 6.8 1.3 -1.1 -4.6 -2.6 -1.9 35 714 1.3 1.1 -2.0 &I: 13.7 4.0 -2.1 1.6 --0.7 28.4 37.5 --_ lL.9 17.6 7.1 63.7 38.1 --. 14.3 7.3 1.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 -2.0 o-7 5.5 1.1 1.3 -.2.0 _.3.5 --- 1.2 i-3 1.5 2.3 0.4 0.7 2.2 r-0 1.0 2.5 -0.9 .--3.0 -- i7> 14.8 -7.3 12.5 -.11.9 ----- T-2 3.8 26.0 d' 7.4 -14.4 5.6 Ir -L 26.0 -5.7 22.0 10.7 -- -12.4 8.0 17.2 . -. -. .- n-a. .-. n-a. ._-_. _ _ __ _ _- Regional of total and fish distributior agriculturat production 4.3 10.9 4.9 1.6 1.9 1.5 3.1 10.8 -- 13.5 -. 2.3 12.5 32.7 --- 100.0 -- n.a. - .._--_.- d' bl Cl a/ 71 TI SOWCt: For country groupings, see Table 1. Mainly PheasoLus sp., except for India Pigmeat, poultry, eggs. Castor and linseed excluded. Sugar, citrus fruit, fruit, cocoa. Coffee, tea, tabacco, cotton, jute and FAO, AT 2000 and ICS data tiles; and China, where mainly Vigna -- sp. hard FAO, fibres, The State rubber, of fodder Food and crops. Agriculture 1981; FAO Agriculture Series NO. 14, Rome 1982. 190 Table 16. Production 1969171 to Trends 1979181, in Developing-Country in Percent Regions ?' by Commodity, Annual Rate of Change 2 F E u -- i ---.Cereals Rice Wheat Maize ---. --- 3.0 2.7 5.0 3.8 1 :3 2.2 -1.5 7.2 1.7 2.7 2.1 0.9 -4.3 4.0 3.9 tuber; foods -_and -1.5 -3.8 potato -0.6 -4.2 -3.5 3.4 3.3 3.1 20.1 3.4 4.4 2.0 2.6 a.5 5.8 0.4 L.8 2.1 1.5 19.8 -0.3 -1.6 0.9 -1.3 3.8 1.2 1.4. -1.5 1.3 1.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 -1.9 5.8 1.6 2.6 18.9 0.7 1.0 -2-a 2.0 3.6 2.4 2.5 2.9 -1.0 -2.2 1.7 5.2 0.6 -2.7 2.8 -1.1 2.0 i-3 14.1 -1.6 ,-2.7 -0.6 3.1 3. 0.6 4.6 -2.9 6.5 3.7 2.9 6.5 1.8 -2.0 -4.6 Barley Sorghum Nitlet Roots -----'starchy --..--_ Cassava Potato sweet Yam cocoyam Other tubers -1.5 1.9 -8.2 5.1 -3.2 -1.9 1.0 7.3 -0.5 10.5 4.3 1.7 2.5 72 4.5 2.9 1.3 2.4 2.5 3.9 2.5 3.3 q.1 2.0 2.2 1.1 -. -9.5 2.2 1.2 T.-S -1.3 1.3 -3.2 1.4 1.3 2.7 4.5 2.2 7.8 1.2 5.0 5.11 1.8 0.3 1.6 -3.6 7.0 0.9 . O.6 -6.7 0.8 2.1 3.7 .._. 1.7 7.6 -4.1 4.2 3.3 1.2 0.2 5.9 _-_ a.1 5.4 0.9 -2.3 4.0 0-a 7.2 2.3 0.5 2.9 1.8 .4 3.7 0.4 2.0 0.9 -1.0 2.8 0.2 .--0.6 1.9 0.. 9 0.5 1.3 roots and -1.5 -4.3 1.8 --0.7 -4.2 -0.6 -2.8 -7.3 -8.1 and products 2.5 3.1 0.1 -0.c 2.8 0.L 2.3 0.9 1.3 3.0 3.7 -0.8 -.. -1.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 7.r. -1.8 _.._ -1.5 15.6 -3.3 -1.2 -10.1 6.0 2.8 ._0.8 0.7 3.6 -6.7 -1.2 ,0.8 0.2 .1.4 1.0 -2.8 2.0 ._- Plantain/banana Food Gickpea coupea Dry bean !' faba bean Lentil Pigeonpea Livestock livestock Large SmalL Milk Other legumes 8.8 2.7 11.5 2.3 6.7 4.8 c.8 -1.1 1.3 5.3 0.2 -4.1 -0.2 0.4 2.1 -6.1 ruminants ruminants livestock c' -1.5 1.4 -4.8 1.3 3.5 -0.6 -3.7 4.6 56.7 3.7 -3.7 2.1 0.5 2.7 6.6 -3.6 -4.2 2.2 1.4 5.1 6.2 -5.3 1.5 i5.B -0.2 1.2 a.5 1.8 -2.1 2.1 2.9 1.4 4.2 -2.0 1.5 i-3 -1.5 0.2 30.2 2.3 -3.0 2.2 2.5 3.3 4.0 -2;4 -1.7 -14.9 -0.9 -1.4 -2.9 -4.9 1.0 3.9 4.2 6.4 1.5 -2.9 i-0 1.8 4.7 -0.4 -2.5 0.9 1.8 0.3 6.7 -4.0 1.3 -0.6 -5.2 1.3 2.4 1.4 3.1 2.3 3.5 2.6 7.9 4.3 -1.0 -6.8 20.9 1.0. 4.0 __2.6 2.0 3.8 a.2 3.5 -_. -1.0 -0.2 0.3 -2.8 2.1 3.2 3.6 2.5 -0.2 -1.1 -1.5 -4.6 4.4 72 4.3 a.2 5.3 -3.7 -8.6 3.3 2.0 17.0 3.1 10.7 4.6 1.8 2,. 1 5.0 5.0 2.5 -7.2 1.3 5.4 4.8 0.2 7.5 -3.8 1.9 2.3 3.2 5.6 -3.2 4.3 T-i 0.4 11.0 11.1 3.2 Vegetables Oilseeds coconut Groundnut Oil palm Soybean Other oilseeds Fish and fish fish crops crops ef g 3.8 -0.3 -5.5 10.8 25.1 0.6. 1.5 0.4 products ----.Freshwater Other Non-food toad -9.0 0.2 -2.0 -1.5 -2.0 -8.9 7.1 -6.4 -2.3 -3.5 11.3 a.5 -2.8 -2.0 -3.2 -0.9 -3.2 --0.9 -1.2 1.6 1.3 -0.5 -1.3 __ 1.2 _- -2.6 3.7 -0.7 -1.9 2.2 0.6 -2.1 5.7 73 -2.7 -0.2 -3.2 3.1 -1.8 -2.5 0.7 -. -0.a --0.4 -0.6 -- 5.6 7-3 -6.3 -2.9 3.2 x-2 -5.1 -3.5 -3.5 0.6 ^-2.6 -3.4 -1.9 -3.0 Total -3.1 -1.5 -0.9 -2.7 -2.3 -1.6 -4.0 al 51 cl For Mainly where Pigmeat, country groupings, see Table for 1. India, South and South-East -- -- _. ._ Phaseolus sp., except mainly Vigna sp. Asia and China, poultry, citrus tea, fruit, tobacco, eggs. fruit cotton, and cocoa. jute and hard fibres, rubber, fodder crops. 2 -el source: sugar, Coffee, FAO, AT 2000 and ICS data files. 191 Table 17. Labour Use in Developing-Country Regions al - by Crop, 1979181, in MiIllon Man/Days 742 L .r 5i -- -IL 024 -5-4 10 594 2 166 226 160 -.-- .- - -_ ..i I A440 --. 214 14a 78 i 538 2..-124 1 171 1,242 Cereals --Rice wheat Maize Barley Millet and sorghur 220 1) 47 94 2 bL i a43 I737 77 971 12 E 96 35 713 7 lb6 b5-r . 271 22sa 625 1,092 Lb7 275 699 2 e 4 -__-. ____ !‘&E 7,975 1,204 492 77 1,Tl.L 2 -c- 404 . 2,237 '73 73 2 19 2 2 - .I----: I “.a. .n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 31 100 -L--, / 18,964 / 8 ' : ! 2,554 6,727 396 4,L59 j : i : 46 443 _-395 48 -525 107 19 ii 5 Roots kubers and .-starchy foods ---.-ROOKS and tubers Pkantainlbanana Food ___- g 45 24 -156 -70 12 G 405 760 15 225 -_. 95 31 . .._ 30 1 884 820 6L 310 -. 81 10 _-. 1 0 285 271 14 -64 -37 25 -2 17 580 ___569 11 600 117 30 -_ 3 27 183 179 4 409 560 2'13 270 .!3 85 BU 5 37 47 23 .23 738 703 35 -327 486 .-. 280 247 33 “.a. n.a. n.a. “.a. -. n.a. “.a. n.a. n.a. ; 3.977 3,734 243 4 838 ~!--.2-*--. 706 j j legunes Vegetables Oi Lseeds -.-.-.Coconut Oil palm -- --. 1. ---- .--- i.. al Source: For country groupings, see Table FAO, AT 2000 and ICS data files. 192 Tabte 18. Projected Annual Rate Production of Change Trends 1979181 in Developing-Country to 2000, _in Percent Regiw; al by Commodiiy, - -- l .- ._ 2 x -_.f 9 5 3 - -- ? 5 -2.2 n.a. “.a. n.a. “.a. n.a. n.a. 2.6 z .c 2.3 3.2 2.6 2.8 Cereals -Rice Uheat Maize B.3rley Millet cereals Roots tubers and ------starchy__. _ ---. foods --. Roots and tubers PLantainlbanana Food ___._. legumes -__ and products ruminants ruminants !' and other 2.7 i-3 1.8 2.2 5.3 4.3 3.6 73 4.5 3.7 6.3 L.3 2.6 r-i L.4 1.1 3.8 4.2 3.0 :i 6.4 3.9 3.7 2.2 3.7 3.9 3.8 6.6 6.9 2.6 2.9 2.8 s.L 5.2 3.6 -0.9 2.2 2.8 1.9 3.0 2.4 2.0 -2.5_. 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 2:o 3.0 .-2.6 6.5 2.4 2.6 4.3 i-3 -0.1 4.2 1.1 1.5 4.6 2.L 1.0 9.0 -1.9 4.0 3.1 -3.0 2.3 2.7 -2.5 3.6 3.5 -3.6 2.8 2.4 3.6 -- 2.8 2.9 -2.6 3.6 4.8 2.3 .L.O -2.9 1.8 3.1 -3.3. 4.2 0.8 3.0 -. 1.2 1.6 -2.8 n.a. “.a. “.a. ..- 2.8 2.7 -3.1 2.8 _- Livestock livestock Large Small Milk Vegetables -Oilseeds c' 1.5 3.0 2.0 -2.0 -1.6 -2.1 6.3 L.6 5.0 4.0 _- 4.0 2.6 4.3 -4.6 -3.6 -3.6 --- 2.7 2.9 L.3 -3.0 -3.1 -4.0 ___ 2:r. 3.6 3.3 -3.4 -4.2 2.4 3.9 3.2 -3.4 -5.0 3.1 -_ 2.4 1.9 2.6 -4.2 -1.9 3.2 2.6 2.5 3.7 --4.1 -3.5 _ .S.B 2.4 2.2 3.5 -. -3.2 -3.0 .._- 2.0 2.3 1.8 -3.9 -1.5 -2.7 3.3 2.3 3.0 -2.9 -3.3 -2.8 -_-_ -. “.a. “.a. n.a. .“.a. .“.a 3.2 2.5 3.1 -3.5 -3.3 -3.2 -- -3.6 -3.7 Total 9’ 3.3 _- -3.8 “A ._--.-_-~.---a/ b/ cl dl For country .-.-_ -_- groupings, groundnut and See Table 1. This table uses FAO's scenario 8 perception of the year ZDOO. Excluding soybean. soybean. at constant 1971181 prices. Including groundnut and Gross value of production Source: FAO, AT 2000 data files. 193 Table ---- 19. Projected in Percent Value of of Total --- Production Regional in Value Developing-Country of Production Regions _a.' by Commodity, 2000, -. L d‘a: _.-- ._.. .- t ---- _---- -.m -j--11.4 6.1 0.1 3.1 13.4 _-_8.7 3.0 -. 17.0 __.-4.2 0.1 2.1 20.4 ..-. 3.7 10.3 1.7 3.0 1.7 35.5 .-23.9 6.9 1.2 0.5 3.0 i --_ 59.8 -54.6 L.0 0.8 0.1 0.3 34.7 30.3 0.1 3.8 0.3 0.2 Cereals Rice Uheat Maize Barley Millet and CerealS I??, starchy Roots and tubers foods tubers other 18.4 0.6 5.9 5.7 a.5 5.7 and -1.4 1.1 0.3 b’ and products ruminants ruminants -0.7 40.8 -_--. 24.8 1.5 8.2 11.7 4.7 1.0 5.5. 0.1 0.4 12.5 1.9 2.2 L.8 0.3 3.3 14.0 -1.8 1.0 11.0 0.1 2.1 I 2 s -24.9 7.2 1.4 8.0 7.6 ____.. -0.3 -12.5 2.1 1.7 10.6 Plantain/banana. Food ---Livestock livestock Large Small Milk Non-ruminant Livestock Vegetables Oilseeds Other -Non-food food :’ crops crops f’ e :' legumes -11.7 7.3 4.L -2.0 35.2 13.4 0.5 10.4 10.9 2.7 -a.2 16.5 12.0 -. 5.5 1 .o 4.5 2.8 18.1 13.6 4.5 4.2 37.0 22.9 14.1 4.8 20.9 16.9 6.0 0.9 27.8 .25.3 2.5 5.3 -20.6 -6.6 3.1 2.8 a.3 7.4 . 12.4 --. 6.0 -.-. 3.5 1.6 1.4 0.2 2.8 .._.29.0 --. 6.1 2.9 1.8 1.1. -7.3 12.6 0.9 0.8 10.1 0.8 12.8 .. 9.9 -. -9.2 -9.0 5.8 -3.5 2.3 1.4 -12.9 .--. 3.6 0.9 5.4 3.0 3.5 -2.2 5.0 -. 9.4 -- 7.6 7-z 2.2 1.1 39.0 10.2 0.2 13.2 lb.2 4.6. 3.7 -19.0 .-12.1 23.9 9.9 1.3 6.6 6.1 5.9 _. 6.8 -. 6.9 -. 18.2 --- 11.8 ---.. 4.9 0.9 l.c. 6.6 3.8 _. 9.9 --7.2 -.__ 14.1__ .-. 6.9 1.8 0.9 0.5 3.7 5.0 13.1 24.2 _-_ 15.6 19.2 3.1 0.2 0.5 15.L z-.7 10.7 -7.9 -. 11.1 -- 4.6 11.4 6.9 11.2 -5.9 17.1 12.0 6.3 2.6 -7.7 11.3 -17.2 --- Total 100.0 --_ --._ 100.0 100.0 00.0 __.- 100.0 __ . 100.0 100.0 _-__ 100.0 ._--_. 100.0 .-_ -. --..__ 100.0 .._ _- . 100.0 _-_-__ .._. -11.5 ".a. -n.a. 689.3 -- Total. uss (at 1979181 in Billion constant prices) 39.3 ---123.1 54.4 --_._ 19.2 ---21.4 ----12.7 25.3 -..118.5 ___.-. 141.7 19.6 14.1 _-- _- a/ b/ cl ZI ef TI For country Excluding Pigmeat, Including Sugar, Coffee, citrus groupings, groundnut poultry groundnut fruit, tobacco, tea, and and and see Table soybean. soybean. cocoa. jute cotton, 1. This table uses FAO's scenario B perception of the year 2000. eggs. fruit, and hard fibres, rubber, fooder crops. Source: --- FAO, AT 2000 data files. 194 Table 20. Food Consumption 1979/81, Trends in in Developing-Country Regions :' by 1969171,to Percent ' Commodity, Annual Rate of Change -_ ___. 3 9; $k fg --- -_2 83 ti ; 3s CerealS Rice Wheat Maize Barley Sorghum Millet Roots tubers --._ .* _-- __.. and._ starchy foods C.3SSdVJ potato Sueet Yam cocoyam Other tubers Plantain/banana Food Legumes -__Chickpea COWLP.3 Dry bean Faba Lentil bean b' 0.2 1.4 1.3 3.5 2.3 7.8 roots and -1.6 2.5 -0.5 -1.5 -0.7 -4.6 -0.8 -1.5 L;5 3.0 3 .,o 9.5 -1.2 2.7 5.5 8.0 10.1 3.1 3.3 0.7 -1.5 3.2 3.0 1.3 1.7 2-o -7.8 3.3 potato 1.3 -i-z 1.2 5.9 4.4 4.2 -4.0 5.2 2.5 2.8 3.5 4.0 5.0 2.4 8.8 -1.0 2.9 9.0 5.8 3.2 -1.2 -1.7 2.4 3. i 5.3 2.5 4.7 0.5 i 4.1 6.6 8.5 1.6 2.2 1.2 4.7 ._-10.3 13.3 6.2 20.6 1.8 1.3 3.9 3.3 1.7 3.6 1.8 2.0 -0.7 2.6 2.6 4.8 0.1 -2.6 0.4 3 2 2 ” 3.1 p.8 4.9 6.0 -14.0 6.5 0.2 3.7 3.5 7.6 0.2 1.8 -2.2 -4.8 3.3 4.L 5.6 2.0 -0.3 0.5 -1 .o 2.0 --.-. 13.7 6.9 -0.5 -1.9 19.6 -0.9 -0.9 -4.3 -0.5 -L.3 0.7 -1.3 2.1 -7.5 5.2 -3.4 3.0 -0.3 7.1 -0.8 -0.2 10.7 2.7 __. 3.5 4.5 2.8 1.3 zr.3 2.4 4.1 2.9 2.a 1.11 i.4 12.5 -1.4 1.2 -2.3 1.5 1.3 2.1 4.5 2.7 1.8 1.0 4.2 7.1 1.4 0.2 9.7 6.7 ,5.8 2.2 0.8 -5.9 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.4 l'.i 8.1 -4.1 3.5 . 3.2 1.4 -0.1 413 6.4 5.2 0.1 -3.7 3.4 1.2 2.9 2.1 1.1 2.9 2.0 -.2.2 4.0 0.9 2.3 1.2 3.3 3.3 0.5 -0.6 3.2 1.2 1.0 1.6 p:' '4.2 2.4 2.6 3.7 5.4 -3.3 4.5 1.6 2.1 8.5 a.2 4.5 -3.4 2.8 --3.5 0.2 3.8 4.2 -0.7 _-._ -0.9 2.0 1.5 0.1 6.3 -3.3 --..._ -3.5 14.1 -5.5 -3.0 5.L 2.6 _--. 1.3 0.7 2.6 -1.3 3.6 2.9 0.6 __.- 1.8 1 .o 2.9 3.2 ..-. 4.0 1.0 - 1.3 0.1 0.7 Pigeonpea Livestock and --livestock products Large ruminants Small ruminants Milk Other livestock t' Vegetables Oilseeds coconut Groundnut Oil palm Soybean Other -Other Non-food .____Total oiLseeds food crops crops e' d' 3.8. -0.8 -2.2 2.2 -4.9 1.9 3.6 -0.7 --1.1 -1.2 16.0 -1.1 0.5 -1.5 3.8 -2.4 -0.1 2.9 6.3 3.6 --0.9 -_-3.4 .10.7 9.5 10.8 -3.1 3.1 -. -0.4 5.0 2.6 1.6 5.7 6.4 -5.6 -4.5, 2.6 0.6 2.1 16.3 5.0 4.1 -.. 1.5 -3.1 2.9 2.9 2.0 4.6 2.0 ---7.4 11.0 -0.8 8.5 34.5 5.1 1.9 --. 4.6 2.9 _-1.9 2.5 3.1 6.2 -2.3 3.7 ---4.0 0.3 3.6 4.1 ..2.2 3.1 3.0 6.4 1.7 _-... 3.5 -K-i 2.8 3.2 3.6 13.7 0.6 15.2 3.8 -1.8 1.8 3.0 7.7 -4.0 -4.6 1.7 3.4 1.7 24.8 22.4 5.5 -12.3 4.8 -3.4 3.8 3.2 10.5 -4.6 5.3 xi 8.3 22.2 10.8 4.0 4.0 5.4 ._-. 4.4 4.0 -__ 1.1 1.9 3.9 8.1 -3.5 -5.0 0.3 1.3 22.1 3.1 73 3.2 3.6 2.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.7 -5.0 24.6 0.9 -2.1 -0.5 --- -4.4 3.1 5.2 4.6 4.8 -3.6 -4.1 2.2 2.6 19.9 6.5 6.6 -5.6 7.4 -__ -3.8 4.7 i-3 2.1 5.5 5.1 -2.7 ,8.2 -0.3 5.0 7.2 4.2 1.4 5.4 4.2 2.2 -__ 3.1 2.3 8.5 5.3 _8.6 .3.7 -.-_--- 3.8 1.8 -.- -1.6 3.0 4.3 2.9 -. 2.4 . .-.. 2.7 3.7 2.9 .-.- ----- -- __- ---.- al bl cl df ;I - For country groupings, Mainly Phaseolus sp., see Table except for 1. India, South and South-East Asia and China, where mainly Vigna sp. Pigmeat, poultry, egg*. Sugar, citrus fruit, fruit and cocoa: Coffee, tea, tobacco, cotton, jute, and.hard fibres, rubber, fodder crops. SOUrCe: FAO, AT 2000 and ICS data files. 195 Table 21. Projected Annual Rate Degree of of Change Self-Sufficiency 1979/81 to 2000, in Developing-Country in Percent Re(gions ?' by Commodity, -- -. -- .._ .^. f --- 2 ” 2 blcldl --.- -Cereals Rice Uheat Maize Bdrtey Millet cereals Roots tubers and -.---.L~_.-starchy foods Gts and tubers Plantain/banana Food legumes p' and other 0.8 -0.4 -2.3 0.8 -0.2 0.1 -I_ 0.4 -0.3 1.2 0.3 -0.3 0.3 - _- b’ - . _-. -0.2 .--_. 2.3 0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 + ._-.__ -...--..^ ..- .__ 0.1 0.6 3.5 -0.4 0.6 -0.4 1.6 2.1 -0.6 / cl - ..-_. -0.3 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 -0.8 -1.4 .. . 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 -2.1 -0.7 -0.3 --__ -0.3 1 .o -0.1 -3.1 -2.0 -0.4 --0.3 -3.4 -0.2 -4.0 -2.3 -“.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -0.1 -0.3 0.6 -0.6 -2.6 1.2 -0.1 --0.1 -0.1 -1.3 -d.5 -1.0 -0.3 0.1 -1.0 -0.2 5.4 -0.7 --0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 E-Y -0.5 0.3 - -0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 __.-. -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -0.1 -1.0 -0.1 0.4 ___ 0-s _*.-0.6 0.3 0.8 -0.3_-0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.6 .-_. 0.2 0.2 0.3 _-.. 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 ".a -._ n.a. n.a. "-a- -0.1 --.. -0.1 -0.1 --0.1 -0.1 ,-0.1 -0.6 0.1 r-0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 -. -0.1 -1.1 -0:l -0.1 -0.1 _-_ 0.4 -0.2 -0.8 ___-. 0.1 -0-2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -1.6 0.3 Livestock and --___ Livestock product? Large ruminants Small ruminants Milk Vegetables Oilseeds " 0.2 _-. -0.5 -1.9 0.5 0.7 -0.2 0.4 .-. -1.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 -0.5 -0.4 . --_ -0.8 -1.7 -0.1 -0.2 _--1.5 0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 -2.0 !!!% n.a. n.a. n.a. "A 0.2 --1.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.8 __ 0.3 -hi 1.0 ---- -1.4 0.1 --0.9 0.7 --0.2 n.a. -Total Non-food coamoditi& --_ crops 0.1 -. -2.5 -_ -- .--1.1 --__ -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 __-. -1.1 -1.8 .-._-_-_ scenario -0.4 .-- -1.0 .-_. _- 0.6 n.a. -1.3 -- __-.-._ 1. Th!s table uses FAO's --.year 2000. For country groupings, Botswana, Guinea-Bissau. Bhutan. groundnut see Lesotho, Table B perceptron of the Excluding Excluding Excluding Excluding Including Cereals, -h/ vegetables Coffee, Swaziland. and soybean. foods, and hard food legumes, rubber, Livestock fodder and livestock products, groundnut and soybean. roots, tubers and starchy and tea, oilseeds. tobacco, cotton, jute fibres, crops. source: ---- FRO, AT 2000 data fites. 196 Table -- 22. Yield Levels in Developing-Country Regions dJ by Crop, 1979/81, in kg/ha -- .._- 1 -_- .- -. .---: -. .- 2 e_ -Cereals Rice Wheat Maize Bartey Sorghum Miltet Roots, starchy ----cassava potato beet tubers foods 9,lLO 13,181 potato 7,665 n.a. n.a. 11,674 8,941 6,774 9,379 n.a. n.a. 5,371 2,211 4,460 3,566 “.a. n.a. 5.71 1 5,81 7 7.23 5 6,15 4 n.a n.a 6,026 5,731 6,154 5,782 n.a. n.a. 6,046 10,714 3,895 7,496 n.a. n.a. 8,834 9,205 7,602 1 0,292 n.a. *.a. 3,153 12,bBL 12,081 3,789 n.a. n.a. 17,17t 12,614 6,982 n.a. n.a. and 3,611 1,503 3,160 1,461 2,995 1,211 1,792 a94 1,646 1,013 1,985 2,908 3,573 1,628 1,860 2,746 1.36 2,0b 2 5 1,593 1,086 a99 600 1,386 1,032 655 669 737 1,116 1,595 2,082 905 750 614 539 3,145 1,381 1,977 1,132 a73 820 1,8bC 1,545 1,102 1,121 69t , 515 1,983 1,556 1,527 780 893 938 2,595 1,980 1,579 2,433 1,089 a66 1,15 6 1,18 3 68 8 66 4 l? .r 5 -.._- -7 2,681 1,622 1,905 1,296 1,073: 666 I ’ 4,236 2,046 3,039 2,LZO 2,487 1,455 i I , , 9,706 8,266 10,463 n.a. n.a. 10,799 10,609 7,151 2,569 n.a. n.a. I 14,939 10,283 14,094 n.a. n.a. a.779 10,592 12,161 a,947 n.a. n.a. j j j , Vam Cocoyam Plantain/banana Food legumes --.Chrckpea Coupca Drybean Faba Lentil Pigeonpea Soybean bean Groundnut ?' 572 952 4,730 700 54s 1,970 484 460 700 387 508 1,575 1,090 377 635 1,110 700 831 717 1,889 65 7! 656 1,753 LOO 462 726 632 429 761 I L -.__-_ 370 1,091 698 227 427 706 562 1,602 946 1,249 7116 791 531 2,141 631 29C 1 I 580 743 628 7uu 58V 726 1,000 563 5;1 649 645 392 477 968 997 1,162 700 618 496 1,105 9OL 536 673 1,100 1,333 I I 241 j I/ 71JC 44c 682 757 Ii i :I. ’ j ~ I , i. .-_-_ .al For Marnly where country mainly groupings, SD., Vigna sp. see except Table for 1. India, South -. __... I. -1. --1 b’ Source: Phaseolus and South-East Asia and China, FAO, AT 2000 and ICS data files. 197 Table 23. Yield Change Level from Trends 1969171 in to Developing-Country 1979t81, in Percent Regions - al by Crop, r - ._ - ‘0 2 -..Cereals Rice Uheat Maize Barley Sorghum MiLlet Roots Cassava Potato Sweet Food tiGiiGDry bean b' Faba bean Groundnut Lentil Soybean potato legumes -2.7 1.4 353.9 -36.0 -6.5 50.0 3.9 -23.8 -13.7 -45.3 -31.7 29.5 27.9 18.5 85.9 -41.5 -0.2 0.4 -23.9 56.4 2.4 -18.5 -4.0 -12.0 66.8 -6.9 -20.0 15.6 20.9 12.7 -11.1 3.4 2.0 -17.4 21.5 114.1 -4.8 2.5 -12.1 -13.0 51.4 -5.9 -22.5 -53.8 -20.7 and tubers -19.7 24.3 -19.1 -16.0 18.5 -23.6 -13.9 26.7 -14.3 -3.1 7.4 5.8 0.9 -4.3 6.1 -0.4 -10.3 -10.9 28.4 27.5 -17.7 17.6 0.7 21.1 41 .u -30.1 67.8 -0.1 4.0 -2.0 9.8 44.0 26.0 56.2 15.3 11.0 -4.6 23.0 lb.7 -13.2 35.d 25.5 35.3 77.5 25.7 -3.6 2.5 -6.8 -10.2 28.1 20.0 -0.8 16.1 0.2 -0.9 -14.5 -1.9 33.4 22.0 45.3 7.0 15.4 22.5 15.4 11.2 -14.5 11.5 25.5 4.9 11.2 43.8 -0.7 13.3 59.8 -13.L 0.0 78.6 -14.6 :: I; -23.1 14.0 22.2 10.0 -14.5 17.2 --i--32.3 75.2 50.1 118.8 56.5 9.2 21.L 41.2 21.9 30.2 28.0 -4.6 30.3 5.2 -4.0 L7.3 11.6 16.1 -1.1 17.8 7.8 9.3 14.1 -32.5 -2.0 57.9 -5.6 27.0 31.3 -41.3 6.5 -1 .o 19.8 3.6 -6.9 32.5 al bl For country groupings, Mainly Phaseolus sp., where mainly Vigna sp. see Table except for 1. 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Africa: 1984, from the Mantaro Norman W. Simmons. "The State of the Art 1984. World Bank. The State of the Environment 1985. Toward Sustained World Action. World Other Development documents Development in Sub-Saharan -1984. Bank. Report. World Bank. A Joint 1985. Program of 1983, Agricultural Research Press, 1982. Policy. Vernon W. Ruttan. Minnesota University , "Cassava: A Basic Energy Source Vol. 218, No. 4574. Science, James H. Cock. in the Tropics". 19 November 1982. 204 "Cereal Imports by Developing Countries". Policy, Vol. 9., No. 1. February 1984. -"Facing Vol. "Investing Robert Yale Thomas K. Morrison. Either. Foreign Food Affairs; Up to AErica's 1, No. 1. Fall Food Crisis". 1982. Carl in Agricultural Supply”. M. Ann Judd, James K. Royce and (Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 442.) E. Evenson. University. 1983. Plant Science: An Introduction ----_--to World-Crops. ScherrFrank W. Woods and Vernon W. Ruttan. 1981. "The CGIAR and the Future: (Undated.) An Issues Paper". Jules Janick, Robert W. W.H. Freeman and Co. Richard L. Sawyer. "The Food Situation in Developi.ng Countries: Two Decades in Review". Food Policy, Vol. 9, No. 4. Leonardo A. Paulino and John W. Mellor. --November 1984. "The World Food Equatfon: Interrelationships Among Development, John H. Mellor and Bruce F. Employment, and Food Consumption". Journal -of Economic Literature, Vol. 22. June 1984. Johnston. Vernon W. Ruttan. "Toward a Global Agricultural Research System”. (Draft prepared for the Workshop on Agricrlltural Policy and 1984. Organfzation in Small Countries, September.1984.) CONSULTATIVE GROUPON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS STUDY (Agenda Item 7) Extract from "Main Conclusions Reached and Decisions Taken", CGIAR Meeting, October 28 - November 1, 1985, Washington D.C. December 1985 207 Strategic Considerations Study - Agenda Item 7 A day was devoted to a discussion of the TAC paper on strategies and priorities. After a brief introduction hy the TAC Chairman, the members of the TAC Standing Committee on future strategies briefed the CGIAR members on TAC's conclusions. This brieFi.ng included: (1) a discussion of the evolution of the CG System and its long-term strategies by E.T. York; (2) a brief outline of the analytical procedure used by TAC to reach,its conclusions by Alexander von der Osten; (3) a presentation of the long-term evolution of the System's program priorities by Alexander McCalLa; and (4) a presentation of commodity priorities by Michael Arnold. The susequent discussion was wide-ranging, with a variety of opinions expressed. On many issues, opposite views were expressed; and because of the nature of the discussion, which was one of exploring issues, there was no effort to reconcile divergent views or reach a consensus on the issue of the long-range strategy for the CGIAR. Instead, the Group focussed most of its attention on the ideas in the document produced by TAC. In what follows, an attempt is made to reflect the flavour and diversity of that discussion. Many members of the Group expressed their gratitude to TAC for the hard work and-dedication reflected in the document, especially the clarification of System goals and program activities. There was broad consensus on the need to reflect adequately the future requirements for research contributions to food production, given the population growth that is already assured by the birth of the mothers of the next generation., There were many comments on the issue of whether the CG's scope of concerns ought to remain exclusively on food crops. TAC's statement of the System's goal is restricted to food crops; many agreed, and many others voiced a cautious opinion that because the food problem is an income problem and because the ecologies in many food-short areas require perennial crops for stable productivity, the CG ought to expand its scope to appropriate non-food crops. TAC was applauded for its vision in identifying and art,icuLating a concern for resource management and sustainability of production, but most speakers were concerned that there was not an adequate indication of how this concern should be manifested in the programs supported by the CG. Many asked how the Centers should address soil and water management and agroforestry concerns. A number of speakers expressed the opinion that the assumption of constant or at most a 25% increase in funding set too restrictive a tone for the analysis, particularly over a long period. It was TAC's job to establish priorities on technical grounds; resource constraints should be considered separately and, particularly, for the longer run. On the other hand, many speakers agreed that TAC's approach met the funding realities. Most speakers supported the general recommendation that the Centers concentrate more of their resources on upstream research in those regions where national research capacities could do the downstream work. Some advocated the transfer of responsibilities for downstream work to national programs, but others questioned the use of the term "transfer", arguing for greater partnership with each doing what it The generation of fundamental knowledge may best could best accomplish. 208 be accomplished by specialized institutions,.with the role of the Centers that of applying that knowledge to problems. The use of terms like upstream and downstream was considered to he confusing; rather, the problems on which the Centers would need to work ought to be defined. A number of recommendations were made about increaing research on specific commoditLes; many mentioned annual. oILseeds, others mentioned non-CG Centers' activities. One or more speakers supported increased research emphasis on unfavourable areas,- on rainFed crops, on extension, on pesticide use, on socioeconomic aspects of technology development and introduction, on strategies that will avoid or reduce undesirable consequences of new technologies, and on animal research in Asia and Latin America. Many speakers indicated they would have Liked to have seen stronger justification of the recommended shtEt away from wheat and rice. The Group was reminded that no speaker had identified research that should be cut out. To the contrary, it was recognized that continuity of support was imporant; and for research to be productive, it needed long-term support. A number of speakers noted TAC's support for the Center model, but argued that the Group should explore new mechanisms like networks, posting staff to national programs, more regi.onalization of networks, germplasm exchange and training, more partnerships assessing constraints more targetting of beneficiaries, and the possibility for and resuLts, network coordination with some funding and occasional technical research support. There was considerable concern as to how the implications of the impact study could be brought together wi.th the ideas in the priorities that TAC consider the impact paper of TAC. Some speakers suggested study and bring a new consolidated strategy document to the Group. Others suggested that the Chairman appoint a small group of the best intellects associated with the System and give it the two reports and for in-depth consideration on behalf of the any other relevant material, Group; many supported a role for TAC in this exercise. The Chairman of the Group and the Chairman of TAC conferred about the issue and decided to proceed with an intensive examination of future strategies. A task force on strategic planning for the CG was appointed by the CGTAR Chairman, consisting of Drs. App, Lampe, Moscardi, McWilliam and members of the Standing Committee of TAC (Drs. York, Arnold, 'Javier, McCaLla and von Urff) to consider these issues on behalf A number of speakers urged that the task force complete of the ,Group. its work before the Ottawa meeting of the Group, but others noted that because the Group is planning for a 25-year time horizon, adequate It was inputs ought to be mobilized to deal fully with the issues. recognized that this would require time, but the Group anticipated receiving evidence of progress at its Ottawa meeting. CONSULTATIVE GROUPON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH FUTURE'STRATEGIES FOR THE CGIAR Report on a Meeting at Bellagio, January 19-24, 1986 February 1986 211 Future Strategies for the CGIAR The Bellag'io meeting arose out of a recommendation made.at International Centers Week in November 1985. The participants, including some members of TAC, met under the chairmanship oE Shahid Husain to consider future strategies and priorities for the CGIAR. The meeting had an informal agenda: an atmosphere of frank discussion encouraged The innovative ideas about the long-term directions of the System. principal suggestions arising from the meeting are listed below and a brief summary of the major ideas discussed at the meeting follows. Suggestions on Major Issues Collaboration with national programs. New and more effective ----including networks, should be developed for establishing mechanisms, close collaborative linkages between CG Centers and national research institutions. The aim would be to conduct joint research on problems of national priority and to assist national programs to conduct appropriate commodity improvement activities now carried out by the Centers. CGIAR approach to Africa. New CGIAR entities should be developed' in the threemajor regions of Africa (East/South, Sahelian/Semi Arid, West) to integrate the research of the Centers already active in these regions and to provide opportunities for new research inputs designed to enhance the productivity of small-holder production systems. They As these are should participate actively in commodity-based networks. established, careful consideration should be given to moving the ICRISAT Sahelian Center rapidly toward becoming an independent'CGIAR Center. New research initiatives. Additional research in agroforestry --(shrubs and trees) should be developed as a new initiative or as a CG Centers should become more component of existing CGIAR programs. aware of the need for research on resource management, both in association with existing commodity programs and in collaboration with other institutes active in these areas. The CG Research on non-food crops. including non-food crops in the mandates of research on non-food crops and their priate, and employment should be a component of the especially related socio-economic programs, research programs suggested for Africa. should be cautious about Centers, but where approcapacity to generate income farming systems research and in the new integrated The results of advanced research Advanced research techniques. techniques should be obtained by CGIAR Centers through active collaborand by developing their own ation with leading biological institutes, in-house expertise. Assessment of priorities. TAC should continue to explore the use of improved models to provide a quantitative assessment of priorities to assist in decision making on resource allocation within the System. process The role of TAC. The System should it uses to consider Center budgets encourage TAC to modify the and program reviews, in order 212 to spend more time providing intellectual leadership for the Group. In addition to reviewing the scientific performance and priorities of the CG System, TAC could, through its own efforts and through inputs from other outstanding individuals, provide a valuable analysis of some of the broader fssues and priorities in the general field of agricultural research. Changing Needs of the Developing Countries Changes in the needs of developing countries' research systems for services from the CGIAR will result in significant changes in the organization and operation of CG activities between now and the year 2000. Some of the important changes apparent even now are: 1. rising rates of population growth in Africa, leading falling per-capita food production, deteriorating environmental conditions and growing soil degradation: 2. increasing demands by the stronger national research largely in Latin America and Asia, for collabsystems, orative research with Centers, in which, research is jointly planned, conducted and reported; 3. the need for the Centers to act as bridges between the world's most advanced scientific institutions and the developing countries, to ensure that agricultural research can benefit from advanced technology and contribute .to solving the pressing problems oE food and agriculture; 4. increasing demands for Centers to relinquish the production of crop varieties and stimulate and assist more mature national programs to assume responsibility in the operation of variety testing this area, including programs or other services for the less mature systems: 5. increasing demands for the CGIAR to approach weak national programs with a unified voice, so as not to‘ overload their limited capacity to interact; demands also to ensure that the technologies being developed include all relevant commodities, so as to optimize the long-range sustainable productive capacity of agricultural production systems: and 6. agreement that these demands should be met without setting up additional centers at large capital cost, but instead through a more decentralized system with any additional facilities of a very modest scale. Goal of the CGIAR The Bellagio group believes that the CGTAR must constantly remind itself of the broader issues of research on food and its relationship countries. with nutrition, income, and resource management in developing Improving nutrition may require increasing incomes within production systems that include non-food crops. to 213 The Group believes that explicit national agricultural research systems CGIAR is desirable. The goal statement The overall agricultural inclusion of cooperation with, in the goal statement of the would be as follows: goal of the CGIAR is, through international research and re'lated activities, to develop technology and to cooperate with national research systems in developing countries with the aim of alleviating hunger and poverty, improving the management of natural resources and increasing employment and income, particularly of the lower income groups. The CGIAR Toward 2000 The Group recognizes that changes are occurring in of CG Centers all the time. To help guide the process, it envision how the changing needs of the developing countries above could be met by a set of widely varying institutions gradually evolve from the present Centers. The picture in that emerged had the following components: the activities tried to discussed that might the year 2000 1. As the capacity of national systems develops, particularly the systems in Asia and Latin America, the current commodity Centers will evolve as centers of excellence, concentrating on: strategic research, germplasm collection and enhancement, and collaborative research with national research systems. They will increasingly incorporate advanced scientific methodology, including biotechnology into their work. They would collaborate with advanced research centers in developing and developed countries. 2. CG efforts in policy analysis, germpmlasm conservation, animal diseases, and strengthening the management of national research programs would continue. 3. Increasingly, breeding and agronomic work for Latin America and Asia would be done in national research centers, where The Centers necessary with the collaboration of Centers. would also stimulate and assist in the establishment and management of international networks, including those for which might be operated by national breeding and testing, programs. 4. The national centers in Sub-Saharan Africa will take time to Many of them may not be in a position to assume the develop. sort of responsibility envisaged for national systems In-Asia Because of the variety of agroecological and Latin America. conditions and commodities in this region, and the urgency of an integrated CGIAR approach to food and agriculture issues, research collaboration is needed now. 5. In view of the pressing issue of the management of resources, research on trees and shrubs should be incorporated in work on production systems, particularly in Africa. 214 Africa Some parts of Africa have particularly acute needs, not only because improved technology has had little impact so far, but also because the ecological conditions and national capacities are diverse and the natural-resource base fragile. These particular problems make it imperative for the CGIAR to strengthen its approaches to cooperative agricultural research in Africa in the immediate future. As the fssues of African agriculture have become increasingly many African institutions have been approached by Centers for pressing, With the multiplicity of CG institutions and insticollaborative work. there have been inconsistencies, overlap and overtutional approaches, loading of the national systems in some instances. Moreover, there are SigIlS that national systems are more and more resistant to accommodation pressing needs are for direct of regional programs, when their assistance to their own national programs. Consequently, mechanisms that will: there is an urgent need.for institutional 1. determine priorities and plan coherent CG programs for developing improved and sustainable production systems for the small farmer'on a subregional basis (Sahelian, Western, East/South): 2. provide adequate oversight of the implementation and progress of such programs that might operate with a series of commodity research networks: 3. foster collaboration among staff from different related international research organizations Centers, and national research systems: 4. integrate all Center activities so as to avoid the complications that have arisen when more than a particular country; and 5. when invited to do so, national programs. facilitate on a subregional basis and misunderstandings one Center operates in direct support for Several institutional approaches that could provide these All involved a decentralized mechanisms were discussed by the Group. approach in which the experimental work would be done collaboratively Rach subregion would have a headquarters unit with national programs. but would be located either at an that would be mainly administrative, existing research institute (national or international) or sufficiently close to one, so that headquarters staff could take an active part in the collaborative programs. The precise nature of these institutions, their organization, TAC and the CG Secregovernance and funding will have to be planned. tariat, in consultation with the relevant countries and organizations, should undertake this task. 215 To further strengthen the work in Africa, the Group proposed that the ICRISAT Sahelian Center should move rapidly to becoming an independent CGIAR Center, while maintaining its linkages with TCRISAT. It would work in a decentralized and collaborative manner on those commodities and production systems appropriate for the Sahelian zone. This change would require an overall review of the continuing mandate of ICRISAT and its role in Africa and elsewhere, and would imply reexamining CG work in the major leguminous crops. These ideas would he developed by TAC. Building Strategic Research Capacity By the year 2000, the developing countries will have a population of about 5 billion, compared to 3.5 in 1984; and by the year 2050, that number may exceed !8 billion. Over the same period, crop land in China, India, Egypt and others of the most densely populated countries will remain approximately constant. In order to meet the long-range needs for food in these countries, science willhave to make significant breakthroughs in the productive potential of the basic food crops. New research tools are being increasingly exploited by advanced laboratories of the developed world. Developments in molecular genetits , cell biology, and tissue culture are being used to generate new genetic variations and to accelerate the process of producing new varieties. A good deal of this research is being carried out by the private sector, concentrated on commodities and problems of the developed world, where private firms believe the potential for profits in the short to medium run is fairly high. The CG Centers should continue to develop the capacity to use these tools to develop new technology through their own: efforts and through collaboration with advanced research institutions. Thus far, little attention has been paid to cassava and other ropical foods, and it is unlikely that this will rice, be done in the near future by private firms. CGIAR Centers should provide bridges for the transfer of this new knowledge to the developing countries. Additional High-Priority Initiatives At Centers Week in 1985, the CGIAR agreed with TAC's stress on the need to develop sustainable agricultural technologies especially for the fragile agroecologies of many African locations. It was not, however, clear how this was to be achieved. The Bellagio group believes that agroforestry research is one key to this problem, both in bushfallow and in crop/livestock systems. In both these types of areas, increasing population pressure is leading to more intensive practices which, with present knowledge, cannot sustain productivity and environmental stability at acceptable levels. Research centers in these areas are working on alternative systems of production, but should be further strengthened. A field-oriented, multidiscipli.nary,‘agroEorestry research program focussed on the needs of Africa, should have high priority and should be supported. factors International research institutions (water, plant nutrients, soils) centered on production were excluded from TAC's 216 endorsement on the grounds that appropriate research in these areas can be done within the multidisciplinary commodity approach and through collaboration with other organizations. Recognizing the importance of these factor-related research activities, the Bellagio group believes that additional consideration should be given to ways in which such institutions might more efEectively contribute to the goals of the CGIAR system. TAC’s reasons for suggesting that aquaculture, vegetables and coconut be considered for inclusion in the CGIAR, if funding permitted, should he elaborated. The value of the data assembled to provide background for such decisions was recognized. Within the continuing assessment of priorities, appropriate use of quantitative models that permit comparison of the likely effects of alternative. research investment strategies with the explicit inclusion of criteria such as the gains from research, level of future demand, the expected productivity the time required until success is achieved, the spillovers from one region to another, differential regional priorities and other criteria, should be considered. The Future of TAC A general conclusion was reached that there is an opportunity for TAC to play a larger, dual role in the CGIAR and on the world agriculAt the broad level, tural scene, and it should grasp that oportunity. TAC should consider world needs for agricultural research, taking account of sweeping problems of world agriculture like desertification, the carbon dioxide "greenhouse effect", deforestation, rural employment, and other global technical agricultural issues. river-basin flooding, TAC should both call these issues to the attention of the world community and ensure that CG technology does not contribute to a worsening of continue to make specific such problems. TAC should, of course, priority recommendations regarding operations of the CGIAR activities, in the broader context, but should do so on a continuous basis. TAC will need to change its style of operation and adopt some different procedures if it is to have the time and obtain the inputs to priorities continuously approach the broader task, and to consider It should not feel constrained to submit all instead of periodically. its deliberations to the Group for approval. Neither should it cast its recommendations so as to ensure the Group will adopt them by consensus. Rather, TAC should be willing to make whatever recommendation it feels appropriate, irrespective of what the Group may later decide. Participants: Edgardo R. Moscardi Alexander F. McCalla James R. McWilliam Patricia Roberts-Pichette Winfried von Urff E.T. York S. Shahid Husain (Chairman) Alva A. App Michael H. Arnold Guy Camus Curtis Farrar Robert W. Herdt Klaus Lampe CONSULTATIVE GROUPON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE ELABORATION OF TAC'S VIEWS ON PRIORITIES Paper Prepared for AND STRATEGIES the May 1986 CGIAR Meeting April 1986 This paper (AGR/TAC:IAR/85/18.1) Meeting in Ottawa, Canada. was prepared for the May 1986 CGIAR 219 Elaboration of TAC’s Views on Priorities and Strategies i 1. Introduction 1. The CGIAR meeting in October dehated the Impact Study and the TAC Review of CGIAR Priorities and Future Strategies (the Priorities Paper). As both-studies ha&been conducted concurrently but largely independently, the Group requested TAC to consider the ImpEcations of the Impact Study for its recommendations on priorities. 2. During discussion of the Priorities Paper, most speakers commented but several expressed reservafavourably on the analysis it contained, tions about a number of .its concl.usions. In some instances, it appeared to TAC Members that there had been misunderstanding; in others, it was The outcome was to establish an ad apparent that there was disagreement. hoc group (the Bellagio group) to consider future strategies in .the light of the Priorities Paper, the Impact Study and concerns expressed at the meeting. 3. Subsequently, TAC held its 39th meeting in Rome. This. paper has been written as a conseqtrence of that meeting; and seeks both to elaborate TAC’s views and to bring together in a single synthesis the issues of greatest concern to the Group. 2. The Goal of the CGIAR and the Evolving Priorities Paper, TAC defined CGIAR Philosophy the goal of the CGIAR as 4. In its follows: ‘Through international agricultural research and related to contribute to increasing sustainable food activities, production in developing countries In such a way that the nutritional level and general economic well-being of lowincome people are improved.” 5. This statement is consistent firmed by the Group in 1981 (Second additional perspective by including production. 6. The Bellagio meeting, redefined group, responding the goal thus: with the aims of the System conReview). However, it adds an the long-term concept of sustainable to points made during the October “Through international agricultural research and related activities, to develop technology and to cooperate with national research systems in developing countries with the aim of alleviating hunger and poverty, improving the management of natural resources and Sncreasing employment and income, particularly of lower-income groups.” 220 7. The TAC statement could be perceived as being too limiting in that it might be held to exclude production systems not primarily 1 concerned with food. The Rellagio statement implies that cooperation with national systems is a goal in itself rather than a means to an end. Furthermore, the goal of "increasing employment and i.ncome" could be seen as being too ambiti.ous. TAC recognizes the difficulties of defining the goal in a single, simple sentence. Accordingly, TAC does not propose to attempt to redraft the goal statement at this stage. What is important is to clarify, in the light of changing circumstances, the evolving philosophy of the CGIAR. Such clarification would facilitate a reformulation of its goal. a. The CGIAR supports a System devoted to agricultural research and related activities for the benefit of developing countries. Its main efEort has been directed towards the elimination of Eood deficits, but While not a the scope of its activities has been gradually broadened. development agency, it has become increasingly concerned with problems of aLlevi.ating hunger and poverty, recogntzing that both relate not only to total productton, but also to the distribution of income. More recently, TAC, the Impact Study and the Rellagio group have all drawn attention to the importance of sustainability of production systems and to the conservation of natural resources. 9. The System recognizes that its purpose cannot be achieved in isolation and that it is only one participant in a vast, interrelated Through increasing collaboration and partnership, It set of activities. In order must constantly contribute to strengthening national systems. to maintain its vitality, it must also collaborate with appropriate To be effective it must be advanced institutions throughout the world. selective, avoid duplicatfon and concentrate its effort. 10. In its Priorities Paper, TAC has given new emphasis to these elements of the evolving CGIAR philosophy and there seems to be general Any misunderstandings that have arisen acceptance of them by the Group. or disagreements expressed have been concerned mainly wi.th: (i> (ii) (iii) (iv) c-J> 3. 11. report the institutional approach non-food commodities research strategies priorities for resource allocation, the nature of proposed new ventures. Approach and The Institutional The concept of the international center was analyzed (inter alia): of the Second Review, which states in the "It was a new institutional concept that not only concentrated resources, but also sought to protect the research programs from pressures that might otherwIse have directed them from their primary international Accordingly, the International Centers were mandates. non-governmental institutions, established as autonomous, each governed by an independent Board of Trustees." (Report of Second Review, Section 3.13.) 221 12. In its further analysis of organizational approaches in the CG System (Section 3.3.1.) l/, TAC endorsed the basic concept of the international center, but by. no means rejected a decentralized approach. TAC sees networking arrangements as complementary to the center concept, tending to reinforce it (Section 3.3.1.). Moreover, it foresees that the present trend towards decentralization will continue and perhaps b&come even more pronounced, particularly with respect to programs in plant breeding (Section 3.3..2.). 13. Furthermore, TAC does not see the creation of additional centers as a necessary prerequisite for undertaking new activities. Its view is that the existing institutlonal framework is such that new activiti,es could easily be undertaken without the need for creating new internattonal centers (Section 3.1.). Consistent with this view, TAC has recommended with respect to research on starchy banana that the System should participate in the newly-formed international network (Section 4.3.3.). A network approach is also suggested if the CGIAR decides to support work on coconut and, implicitly, if it decides to support work on tropical vegetables (Section 4.3.6.). 14. TAC sees these concepts as being in harmony with the views of those speakers at the October meeting who urged that the System should be involved in networks and that it should foster stronger collaboration with other institutions. TAC sees in the concept of the international center elements that the CGIAR should be careful to preserve. To this extent, TAC does not share the views of those donor representatives who questioned its validity for the future. 4. Non-Food Commodities terms of confined to has concencommodities as important 15. The'original objectives of the CGIAR were stated in "agricultural research", as distinct from research that is From its beginning, however, the System food commodities. trated on research related to food commodities, but non-food were not entirely excluded. They have long been recognized in research on production systems. 16. In its analysis of priorities and strategies, TAC noted, how the The goal statement it developed reSystem's programs have evolved. flected the focus on food and the clarity and specificity of activities. TAC's view on the further expansion of effort on cash crops is illustrated in the following paragraph (Section 4.3.7.): "TAC has confirmed that crItica food problems persist in developfng-country regions and that research and related activities to increase food production cannot be diminished. but opportunities for imNot only do urgent needs persist, pact and returns to addttional investment in research remain TAC has, therefore, recommended that the CG excellent. System maintain its focus on food crops, rather than expand its coverage to include export/cash crops, at least for the current 25-year planning horizon.." (See also Section 4.3.6.) l-/ Throughout Technical are to the Priorities this paper, references Annexes, unless otherwise stated. Paper and its 222 17. TAC fully recognizes the importance of industrial crops and their need for research. Nonetheless, TAC considers that a major unifying force within the CG System has been, and will continue to be, its emphasis on food commodities. Given this and the obvious need to limit the scope of its efforts within the global agricultural research system, TAC considers that work on industrial crops should be done primariLy outside.the framework of the CGIAR. It recognizes the general desire to keep the aims of the CGIAR free from the complicati.ons of national poLities that have so often tended to frustrate international initfatives aimed at supporting industrial crops. The Committee also took into account the probable beneficiaries of increased research on non-food commodities. ia. Successful research benefits both producers and consumers, but studies on food crops in developing countries have shown that, in many circumstances, consumers have benefitted more than producers. This result has to be viewed positively when low-income people in developing countries are major consumers. If, however, the benefits of successful research were to be shifted to consumers in industrialized countries, then the outcome would have to be viewed differently. This could easily occur with export crops that have low price elasticities of demand and limited absorptive capacFty on the world market. It would indeed be unf.ortunate if the CG System were to be blamed for doing research that mainly benefitted consumers -Ln industrialized countr.ies without substantially improving the economic well-being of producers. This concern would not arise, however, if non-food crops were exported to other developing countries, particularly if they were traded for food. The Impact Study does not suggest a lessening of emphasis on food 19. note that It does, however (Impact Study, Section 4.2.2.1, crops. national scientists are attracted to work on those commoditfes with which Centers are involved, even though other commodities may be perThe Study Team ceived to be more important in terms of national needs. also notes that the primary gaps in research brought to its attention involved commodities other than the major food crops, including industrial or export crops. 20. Recognizing the importance of income generation, TAC has given increased priority to a range of commodities that are important for food Income generation was also a major factor in its as well.as cash. proposals for new ventures. Taking all of these considerations into account, TAC does not 21. recommend the inclusion of non-food crops 1n the mandates of Centers. the Committee strongly supports their inclusion in reNevertheless, The Bellagid group reached search with a farming systems perspective. similar conclusions. 5. Research 5.1. Strategies in the CG System Research and Sustainability of Production Factor-Oriented Systems, 22. Views expressed by several ,October reflected concerns about representatives of the Group in the extent to which factor-oriented 223 research could be undertaken effectively within the present institutional framework of the System, and particularly by those. Centers with strong commodity focus. Some speakers were in favour of CGIAR support for existing institutions specializing in sot1 and water management. Similar points were also taken up by the Bellagio group, which emphasized the importance to sustainable agriculture of research on soils, water and plant nutrfents. It suggested that more thought should be given to ways in which existi.ng institutions working in these areas might contribute to the goals of the CG System. 23. Irrespecti.ve of the primary focus, TAC’s view on research in the System is that the dominant motivation must be towards solving problems rather than towards seeking new knowledge for its own sake. Problem solving in agricultural research requires a multidisciplinary approach, especially when the problems relate to the fragile ecologies of tropical environments and to the complex socfo-economic circumstances of developing countries. 24. A multldiscipl1nary approach can have a commodity focus, a discipline focus or a factor focus. TAC considers that there are great advantages in focussing the attention of specialists in widely different disciplines on the production problems of a single commodity so that each, working against a background of the others' findings, is able to view his or her contributions against a much wider background of advancing knowledge. 25. While supporting the multidisciplinary approach and the commodity focus, TAC has given new emphasis to the importance of,sustainability as a key consideration in the System's work. The necessary research includes work on soils, water and plant nutrition, as well as aspects of all of which are also important in the management and agroforestry, conservation of natural resources. TAC recognizes that changes in Center programs would be necessary, advocates stronger collaboration with specialized institutions, and sees the need for expanded effort on the problems of rainfed agriculture. 26. Because much of the research required on soils, water and plant nutrition is locati.on-specific, TAC considers that the Centers should on underlying principles, novel production systems and concentrate methodologies for research. It sees on-farm research as a vital leading naturally to the strengthening of component of this approach, adaptive research is networks with national systems, where the vital more appropriately undertaken (Sections 4.2.2. [b], 4.2.7. [a] >. 27. Furthermore, throughout the Priorities Paper, TAC stresses the need to give greater consideration to the importance of trees and shrubs (e.g. pp. 15, 48, 54, 59 and 102). Both the Impact Study and the Bellagio group also emphasized the importance of trees and shrubs in the TAC considers that a more general awareness context of sustai.nability. of their importance is partly a matter of n,ational policies leading to greater emphasis on the preservation of perennial vegetation. The specific contributions that can be made to these desired trends by research and training within the CG System will be studied further by TAC and recommendations made in due course. a 224 It was apparent from the debate during Centers Week that the term “focus” meant different things to different speakers. To some, the commodity focus clearly implied concentration on plant breeding, which would be too limiting with respect to the increased emphasis on sustainability. In its recommendation on sustainability, however, TAC is proposing a broadening of the conceptual framework rather than a change in focus. It also recognizes the need to broaden the expertise at commodity Centers ff this recommendation is to be.fully implemented. 28. 29. The desired conceptual framework can he thought of as a multidimensional matrix in which the vectors are exemplified by disciplines, factors and commodities. The particular focus chosen should not be permitted to weaken the other elements in the matrix and it is Ear Center managements to ensure that this does not happen. 30. It is against this background that TAC favours continued support for the commodity focus for agricultural research within the System. It considers that this approach provides a valuable model for national The commodity focus in multi.di.scipLinary research has proved systems. to be a successful means of integrating into a strong team approach alL the necessary aspects ‘of agricultural research. it provides Moreover, the driving force that has motivated not only multidisciplinary research workers and policy makers alike. Many would teams, but also extension argue that historically, it has also proved more successful in terms of impact than the discipline focus or the factor focus. 31. while not in favour of direct Nevertheless, ized institutes, TAC strongly supports collaborative arrangements with them when necessary to strengthen particular problems. 5.2. support for specialand contractual research on Decentralization of Research 32. Among the criticisms of Centers reported in the Impact Study was the suggestion that “programs have a tendency to be over-centralized”. The dangers of over-centralization were illustrated mainly by reference to strategies in plant breeding (Impact Study, Section 6.4.3.). One possible consequence of centraltzation is that parents may be chosen and selections made under conditions that are not typical of the environ“If the object is to breed ments for which the material is intended. varieties for small-scale farmers employing low inputs, a procedure of selection under high-input conditions on experiment stations is likely The Study also makes the point that there was a to be self-defeating.” limit to the number of characters (especially resistance to pests and diseases) that can be coped with at one place, with the consequent need for decentralization at an early stage in the breeding process. Comments on breeding strategies, similar Study, have been made in several reports For example, in reviews of individual Centers. IITA, which was accepted by the CGIAR, the need not only for the breeding zation was stressed, activities as well. 33. Impact to those made in the of external program the recent review of for greater decentraliprograms, but for ,other . 225 34. TAC recognizes that, ultimately, decentralization will be achieved through strong national programs. The problem arises in the intervening period when national programs lack the capacity to do the work themselves; and Centers, by outposting statYE, run the risk of becoming too involved in individual national programs. But the Centers have continually to strike a balance between the resources devoted to outposting and those required to retain a critical mass at headquarters. Centers have'responded to this need in part by engaging in network operations. TAC has endorsed this approach in the Priorities Paper, and considers that the need Ear decentralizatfon must be kept under constant scrutiny by Center Roards and management, as well as through internal and external program reviews. 5.3. Strategic and Basic Research 35. Throughout the Priorities Paper as well as the Impact Study, there are references to the importance of Centers collaborating more closely with universities and advanced institutions in both developing and developed countries. In the Foreword and in the concluding section of the printed summary, the Impact Study draws attention to the need for Centers to take' advantage of the new advances in biotechnology. The need to establish linkages with advanced institutions and for staff members to be trained in the new techniques is also stressed. It predicts that the tools of biotechnology will greatly increase the potential gains from investment in research and urges that the Centers take the earliest possible advantage of the new technologies. 36. Likewise., during the debate on the TAC Priorities Paper, attention was drawn to the risk of the CG System becoming obsolete through complacency. A similar theme was develqped by the Bellagio group. It pointed to the need for the CG System to keep abreast of relevant knowledge in order to develop the capacity to use new research tools as the prospect arises. It also stressed the need for Centers to build bridges for transferring new knowledge to the developing countries. 37. TAC has similar views. Misunderstanding may have arisen because TAC did not use the term "biotechnology" extensively in its Priorities Paper. In the literature, the term has been used with widely different meanings and it has often been sensationalized by the media, leading to unrealistic claims for potential advances.from the use of the new technologies. 38. While TAC considers it essential that the System should be constantly alert to new opportunities arising from the rapidly advancing frontiers of knowledge, it cautions the Group against over-involvement in high-risk basic research, especially when the needs For good applied and adaptive research are still paramount. In its recommendations for expanded effort in such areas as tissue culture, cell biology and molecrecognizing that the field ular genetics, TAC has been highly selective, is enormous and that the CG System must concentrate its.effort, in order to exploit possible applications to research on both crop and livestock TAC has commented in this respect that it ,will be productivity. necessary for the expertise of Center staEf to be strengthened through TAC has also stressed training and recruitment (Section 4.2.2. [a]). the need for close collaboration with advanced institutions, 226 particularly resistance in work such as that concerned with new sources to pests and diseases (Section 4.2.2.[c]). of 39. Some Centers have already taken significant strides in these directions and are applying new techniques in tissue culture and molecular biology to .their research programs. There is an immediate continuing need for all the commodity Centers to assess the possibilities for applying new technologies and to review.their expertise accordingly. In the longer term, TAC foresees the System gradually evolving towards greater involvement in strategic and basic research, much of it in collaboration with other institutions (Section 3.3.6.). 5.4. System-Wide Strategies in Research and 40. In several different instances, the Impact Study suggests that there may be.a need for a greater degree of System-wide centralization in formulating research philosophies and strategies. The point is made, for example, with respect to work on plant protection, where it questions what the CGIAR approach should be. Should it give more attention to the judicious use of chemicals, or should it continue to concentrate mainly on host-plant resistance and biological control? (Impact Study, Section 13.) 41. A similar point is made in relation to the ecological damage being done to tropical environments through over-concentration on shortterm agricultural productivity at the expense of long-term conservation of natural resources (Impact Study, Section 14.4.8.). The Study points out that the CGIAR could adopt one of two viewpoints: either it could regard these problems as lying beyond its sphere of influence; or it could examine the possibility of introducing a System-wide plan of action that gives greater emphasis to sustainability as the yardstick of success. 42. The System-wide policies advocated by TAC have not, in general, been at the level of philosophies or strategies for conducting research in particular subject areas. These are considered to be primarily the concern of Center Boards and management staff. Specific questions that have arisen as a result of External Program Reviews have been dealt with on a Center-by-Center basis. Nevertheless, on the subject of the control of pests and diseases, TAC has expressed the opinion that "the search for sources of durable resistance and tolerance will remain at It has the forefront of the CG System approach" (Section 4.2.2.[a]). also endorsed the integrated approach to pest management in which the ,judicious use of chemicals forms an important part (Section 4.2.2.[cl). 43. The broader issues of sustainability of production and conservation of natural resources have been extensively addressed by TAC in the Priorities Paper. While TAC supports the integration of much of this work into the multidisciplinary approach, it has recommended that the Centers should intensify their collaboration with other organizations working entirely in this area (Section 4.2.1.[c]). The role of the CG System should be to: 227 "catalyze new initiatives, contract out the basic research necessary for its work in conservation, and participate in collaborative efforts, rather than assume' full responsibility for research itself". 44. TAC has identified ecological management and conservation on a grand scale, such as the transnational management of the world's large river basins, as an issue of a long-term nattire. Although requiring international action, problems of this type collld not be tackled through the present institutional structure of the CG System (Section 5.6.). It is primarily the responsibility of other international organisations to address them. However, in view of suggestions made by the Rellagio ways of promoting greater group, TAC would be prepared to consider awareness of these problems in the international agricultural community. 45. In the Impact Study chapter on farming systems research (Impact Study, Section 16), the need for Centers to be consistent among themselves is stressed, particularly in relation to training. In this respect, TAC has encouraged Centers "to maintain an active dialogue aimed at evaluating, improving and harmonizing their respective approaches" (Section 3.3.2.). Clear evidence that this is occ~lrring was provided by the recent Inter-Center Workshop on Farming Systems Research held at ICRISAT. . 46. implicit Impact Another indication in the criticism Study which reads policy is of the need for a System-wide made at the end of Section 6.4.3. of the as follows: "Some observers believe that there may be.few actions that could confer greater benefit on the Centers than the banning of glossy reports and other sub-literature, and the promotion of orderly scientific publication in properly refereed journals..." 47. The issue of scientific publication is one on which TAC has not of the External explicitly recorded its view, except in the context It is to be regretted that, in Program Reviews of individual Centers. many of the Centers are not held in the scientific community at large, high regard with respect to publication. The relatively poor ouput of good scientific papers by some of them can reasonably be attributed, in to the nature of the work, which does not lend itself to frequent part, publication and to the dedication of the staff in pursuing their urgent day-to-day tasks. There are many who believe, however, that it is also associated with a range of other considerations, such as the attitudes of Center managements and their failure to ensure that time is allowed for writing up results in a form suitable for publication in international journals. 6. Priorities 6.1. for the Allocation Considerations of Resources General 48. Several speakers at the October meeting called for further explanation of how TAC had arrived at its recommendations on priorities among commodities. These thoughts were echoed by the Rellagio group, which suggested that TAC should make greater use of quantitative models. 228 49. The indicators used by TAC in arriving were essentially based on three questions: at its recommendations (i> How great are the present and projected contributions of the commodity to the CGIAR goal.? (The relevance indicators) How productive likely to be? is further research on the commodity (The research productivity indicators) (ii) (iii) To what extent is research on the commodity appropriate Ear the CGIAR System? (The efficiency indicators). TAC accepts the need to continue developing methods of assessing priorities, including the greater use of quantitative models. Such models have their merits in forcing decision makers, or their advisors, to define objectives in quantitative terms. The contributions to reaching those objectives made by activities that compete for scarce resources can also be estimated, giving greater rigour and coherence to the process of priority setting. Models are particularly useful in exploring the effects of changes in the variables under consideration. The complexity of the questions outlined above, however, and the difficulty of determining the parameters used in models, mean that their value as They. aids to setting priorities for the CG System is severely limited. might well be used as one step in the process but, in TAC's opinion, are no substitute for collective judgement. 50. TAC is not primarily concerned with determining priorities for TAC's task the total global research effort on the various commodities. is to recommend, within the total global effort on each commodity, the nature and extent of the CGIAR contribution. The total global effort For example, in the and the CGIAR contribution may not be congruent. event that the needs for research on a particular commodity were essentially satisfied by national systems, TAC would give very low priority to that commodity for support by the CC System, even though its global importance remained high. 51. With continued success in strenthening national systems, there would come a time for each commodity when it would be desirable for the Deciding when that time has come System gradually to reduce its effort. Indeed, the would be difficult and could not be precisely quantified. Reduced effort determining factors are dynamic and often interactive. in certain circumstances, stimulate national by the CG System might, systems might not see a systems to do more. Put another way, national need to strengthen their own research while they could rely heavily on the CG System. All of these considerations are important and were with many other considerations, carefully assessed by TAC, together before arriving at recommendations. 52. Even after all the considerations had been reviewed, perceptions varied among TAC Members and conclusions were not lightly reached. Recognizing that the CG System has been in a no-growth mode for the past five years, TAC first addressed the matter of relative priorities in a This caused TAC to make hard severely constrained funding environment. choices concerning the relative distribution of resources in relation to 229 The optimistic scenario was then used the indicators. The exercise was in perceptions of preferred .trends. TAC's assessment of funding needs. With the wisdom of perhaps unfortunate that monetary values were inserted It was primarily designed to illustrate (Chapter 4). in relative priorities;. 6.2. Application Importance of Indicators to discern TAC's no way related to hindsight, it is in Figure IV proposed changes . (a> Global 53. In reviewing the currently supported commodities and a long list of candidate commodities, TAC first a.pplieri the relevance criteria at the global level and thereby was able to identify a number of commodities that did not meet .the criteria, for example, faba bean, lentil and The evidence is set out in Technical Annex, Part 5, Tables 7 to barley. 13 of the Priorities Paper and is summarized below: Faba Bean These crops are of minor importance -- and Lentil: globally.. Neither provides more than 0.5% oE the global calories nor has measurable protein contribution. Their respective values of production are both less than 0.5%. In the region of North Africa/Near East, where they have their contributions of both their greatest importance, calories and protein to the diet and to the value of agriculture production is less than 1% for each indicator. TAC recognizes the excellent results so far obtained and does not wish,to see germplasm development in the pipeline I for faba bean and lentil prematurely interrupted. It therefore recommends that phasing out he in five years. Despite this recommendation, however, the Center concerned would retain responsibility for lentil and faba bean germplasm collections (Technical Annex, Part 3) and it would also continue research on lentil and faba bean in the context of production systems. Barley: Globally, barley is of minor importance, providing less than 1% of the calories, less than 2% of the protein, and Less than 1% of the total value of agricultural production. production, In North Africa/Near East, its area of highest these figures do not rise above. 4%. What is not clear from these figures is the immense importance of barley as an animal feed in this region. The evidence for this is indicated by the 21% annual rate of increase of imports of barley to this area between 1970 and 1980, and imports of about 2.5 million tons in 1979-81. Consequently, TAC's recommendation is that CGIAR research on barley improvement.he consolidated, with the focus confined to the North Africa/Near East region. 54. The Committee also commodity groups currently applied the relevance criteria supported and confirmed that to the all of them 230 should continue to receive CGIAR support. TAC also confirmed that among the commodity groups, cereals, because of their overall importance, should continue to receive the maior proportion OE the CGIAR's resources. Nevertheless, in view of the importance of the other commodity both globally and in particular geographic regions or agroecogroups, logical zones, CGIAR support for cereals should not increase relatively. 55. The Committee concluded that within the various groups, all commodities not rejected on the grounds of relevance merited, and could easily benefit from additional support. At the same time, two major gaps in the CGIAR range OE commodities were identified: crops providing vegetable oils, and crops high in vttamins and minerals. 56. Once the global importance oE the individual commodities had been established, TAC also looked at regional differences. It noted in particular that rice and wheat are the main calorie-supplying commodities of Asia, North Africa, and large parts OF Latin America. SubSaharan Africa, on the other hand, depends to a very large extent on maize, millet and sorghum, and on the root, tuber and starchy food none of which had received for AErican conditions the attention group, wheat and maize had received from the CGIAR for conditions in that rice, Asia, North Africa and Latin America. ' (b) Productivity and Efficiency 57. In the application of the productivity and eEficiency indicators, the Committee noted that many of the commodities that receive, in relative terms, only marginal support from the CGTAR, have the Eollowing characteristics: they are often the staples of the lowest income groups: are crops of subsistence farmers wfth limited access to inputs; have the shortest history of concentrated research; have the most difficult production problems; and generally are most important in those countries where national research systems are weakest. On the other hand, those commodities receiving the largest proportion of CGIAR support have: the longest histories of concentrated research; production systems where most farmers have access to inputs; no limitations with respect to consumption (they are eaten by all income groups); considerable research strength in industrialized countries: and 'strong research programs in the developing countries that are the major producers. Such disparity raises questions of minimum critical mass and whether commodity improvement programs of US$ 3 million or less per year could be equated with those receiving two, three or seven times that support, especially when there is little additional research activity. 58. TAC also found that most of the CGIAR effort to date has been concentrated on the more favourable areas, and recommended that more in the semi-arid tropics. attention be paid to rainfed areas, especially 6.3. Summary of Rationale for Changes among Cereal Crops 59. TAC's assessment Annex, Part 3) clearly world's most important more resources from the these commodities would of the cereals (Section 4.3.2., and Technical revealed that although rice and wheat are the should receive cereals, maize, sorghum and millet increasing the support to CGIAR. Consequently, mean less support to wheat and rice unless 231 substantial considers the total ening of the ma.jor production increases in total resources were forthcoming. However, TAC that the relative reduction is acceptable, taking into account global capacity for research on these two crops, the strengththe national programs in those developing countries which are producers, and the significant increases in yield and already achieved. 60. The recommendation to relatively increase the support for maize, millet and sorghum is based on a number of considerations. The projected increase in demand for these cereals by the'year 2000 is greater than the estimated growth in population and reflects the need for both human food and animal feed. They all have dif'ficult production problems, as they are usually grown under rainfed and relatively unfavourable conditions. Sustainable production systems based on sorghum and millet, the main staples of .the poor throughout the semi-arid tropics of Asia and Africa, have not had long histories of concentrated research, nor do they receive the same attention in developed countries as maize, rice or wheat. Maize, sorghum and millet each make major caloric and protein contributions to the diets of at least one region in Sub-Saharan Africa; and in the areas where millet is grown, there are few alternathroughout the tive crops unless irrigation is available. Furthermore, whole region, there are mounting problems of environmental deterioration and soil degradation. 61. In Sub-Saharan Africa, other commodities are generally more important than rice and wheat, both for meeting dietary needs and for income generation (Technical Annex, Part 5, Tables 7 to 13). Wheat supplies less than 6% of total calories and protein, and rice approximately 10%. Exceptions are found in Humid West AErica, where rice supplies about 18% of the calories and .20% of the protein, and in Equatorial Africa, where its contribution to protein reaches almost 12%. The projected caloric contributions to diets in 2000 are not expected to change significantly (Technical Annex, Part 5, Table 4). 6.4. Summary of Rationale Starchy Food Crops for Changes among Root, Tuber and 62. tubers and starchy foods (Section TAC's assessment of roots, 4.3.3.. and Technical Annex, Part 3) revealed that while cassava and potato both have satisfactory research support, yam, sweet potato and starchy banana have not received support commensurate with their importance or potential payoff (Technical Annex, Part 5, Tables 5 to 13). ,Other arguments for increasing the relative support for these commodities are similar to those for sorghum and millet, i.e. they are subsis(mainly the humid and sub-humid tence crops in Sub-Saharan Africa regions) and they are the staples of the,poorest in these areas. Further, they are capable of high production under conditions of relatively low inputs and have considerable potential for conversion into easily storable products for urban dwellers or for components of animal feed. 63. Although their regional importance ismainly for Sub-Saharan they are also subsistence Africa (except for sweet potato in China), crops in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, areas to a large extent, neglected by the CGIAR and which would probably benefit from increased effort on these crops. 232 64. All three of these commodities offer excellent research opportunities, as explained in Part 3 of the Technical. Annex, especially with respect to production and to storage problems which currently constrain their utilization. Even moderate increases in effort are likely to have substantial payoff in the short to medium term. In addition, starchy banana as a tree-like perennial is important in cropping systems, particularly in the humid and sub-humid tropics. 65. The current level of support oE less than US$ 1 million annual.ly for each of these three commodities is too small to achieve the results and impact urgently needed. TAC thereEore recommends substantial. increases for the support of research on sweet potato and yam, and a somewhat smaller increase for starchy banana. The CGIAR should cooperate fully with. TNIBAP, hut should not extend the scope of the work to incllldc dessert hanana. It should aLso explore opportunities for exploiting genetic variation resulting from new techniques in tissue culture and molecular biology. 6.5. 66. cheap, diets. Summary of Rationale for Changes among Food Legume Crops Food legumes (Section 4.3.4. and Technical Annex, Part 3) provide high-quality protein with the amino acids essential to complement They are grown primarily by small farmers under rainfed conditions an'd are multipurpose, providing food, feed, fodder, soil nitrogen, organic matter, and sometimes fuel. 67. Global demands until 2000 are expected to increase Easter for food legumes than for wheat and rice, but not as East as for those .Of importance in discussing cereals that are also used 'as animal feed. food legumes (as defi.ned in the Priorities Paper), are groundnut and which besides heing high in protein are also major oil crops. soybean, Demands for vegetable oils are expected to be higher than those generTAC considers there is a gap in CGIAR ated by population'growth alone. support for vegetable oil crops. 68. Increasing the productivity level of food legumes is constrained by lack of knowledge. Research is needed to raise and stabilize yields, enlarge the ecological range, and find sources of tolerance or resisthe best funded of tance to the many pests and diseases. Currently, these commodities .receives less than US$ 4 million annuaI.Ly, while five, less than US$ 1.5 million. The including groundnut and soybean, receive slow progress of the CGIAR in legume improvement is no doubt in part due The phasing out to the small programs and multiplicity of commodities. of CGIAR support for the genetic improvement of faba bean and lentil more concentrated efEort on the remaining would allow consolidation, progress tn solving major problems. food legumes, and faster 69. TAC recommends relative soybean as oil-producing crops the tropics and soybean for its recommends a relative increase TAC considers this is nature. potential for the mixed-cropping Africa. increases in support for groundnut and - groundnut for its importance throughout TAC also potential in tropical Africa. hased on its multipurpose for pigeonpea, a 'somewhat neglected crop with great systems of the semi-arid tropics of 233 6.6. Summary of Rationale. Activities for Changes in. Livestock Research I 70. TAC considers that the CGIAR’s comparative advantage in livestock productivity research (Section 4.3.5. and Technical Annex, Part 3) lies primarily in two areas :’ ruminant diseases: and ruminant production through enhancing nutrition by improved management practices and the development of better pastures, forages ;ind other feed sources. Poor nutrition is a major constraint to livestock production in Latin America (primarily cattle), North Africa/Near East (primarily sheep and goats) and Sub-Saharan Africa (cattle, sheep and goats). This recommendation places emphasis on rangeland management, which links closely with TAC’s recommendations on sustainability. Research will address such aspects as the use of trees, prevention of soil erosion, management of water resources, etc., in producing conditions for the better survival of animals during the dry season. 71. While not directed at specific domestic livestock or specific geographic regions, the increased attention TAC recommends for some sorghum, groundnut, soybean and sweet potato crops - e.g. maize, millet, - relates Jn part to their actual or potential use as animal feed. The increased emphasis on the integration of crop and livestock production systems will mean greater emphasis on livestock in Asia, especially in the use for feed of residues or crop surpluses. 72. TAC considers that the CGIAR should.not expand its activities on livestock to include other species or other major areas of research. Other organizations and institutions have a comparative advantage over the CGIAR, or the technologies are already available and transferable without requiring CGIAR involvement. 7. New Ventures 7.1. General Considerations 73. Some speakers at the October meeting suggested that TAC had been, unimaginative in proposing new ventures. Others thought that new activities in factor-oriented research should take precedence over new commodities . The Rellagio group suggested that TAC should elaborate its ‘reasons for favouring the particular new ventures it recommended. 74. TAC arrived at its position on new ventures after a thorough review of a wide range of potential new activi.ties for CGIAR support. With the few exceptions already noted, it concluded that most of the currently supported activities would still,be chosen on the basis of the sets of indicators it had formulated. It therefore accorded highest priority to ensuring that current activities were adequately supported, recognizing the long-term nature of much of the work and the vital importance of continuity in research. TAC also recognized that additional support for current activities would be necessary in order to implement the new emphasis it gave to sustainability of production systems i For the reasons already it rejected direct support presented, for new or existing institutions that focus on a single disciplfne or a single factor of production, but encouraged collaboration with them. As already mentioned, it also gave\particular attention to income generation. 234 75. On the basis of all the indiLators, attention was directed to three groups of commodities in the following order of priority: tropical vegetables; vegetable oil crops; and some commodities produced through aqllaculture. These were also noted as gaps in the CGIAR coverage in the Impact Study (Impact Study, Sections 4.3.2. and 4.3.4.). 7.2. Tropical Vegetables 76. TAC considers that research on tropical vegetables is a neglected field in which considerahle~ impact could be made. The rapid growth of towns serves to increase pressure on land use in surrounding areas. In these circumstances, vegetable production becomes profitable and can absorb urban Labour. Briefly, the main considerations are that: - projected population strata: demands are greater than those indicated increases alone and come from all social high high from urban for small minerals systems: dwellers; holders; and from - demands are particularly - vegetables - they fill vitamins); - there is generate nutrition limited incomes gaps (especially research by national - some research on vegetables Center programs (e.g. green cowpaa at IITA); and - vegetables fit a variety is already included in bean at CIAT and vegetable systems. of cropping 77. TAC has not yet considered in detail how the CGIAR might support or the range of problems and species additional research on vegetables, If the CGIAR wishes that more specific prothat might be included. posals on tropical vegetables be formulated, TAC would consider the roles of potential participants in what present and possible future network of activities. might provide the basis for a CGIAR supported 7.3. Vegetable Oils 78. In response to pro,jected demands for vegetable oils, TAC not only recommended increased support for research on groundnut and soyhean, but also carefully considered a range of other annual and perenniaL crops. TAC considered cotton, oilseed rape, saf79. Among the annuals, Of these, cotton has the largest flower, sesame and sunflower. production in developing countries and Ls the only one that could be Its greatest value is as a fibre, considered of global importance. however, and TAC did not recommend it for CGIAR support because of the general reservations TAC has about supporting work on non-food commodities in the System (see Section 4 of this paper). 235 80. Among perennials, TAC considered oil palm and coconut, both of which are widely grown in developing countries, exceptin the Near East. Production of palm oil is'highly competitive and much of it is produced in monoculture in large-scale commercial enterprises. Intensive research in both the public and private se'ctors has Led to Increased yield and quality during the last decade. 81. In contrast, coconut Cs primarily a small-holder crop in systems of mixed cropping. Its uses extend.beyond oil to livestock feed, building material, fibre and fuel. As a tree crop, it is important ecologically, particularly in the humid tropics. Research 1s required primarily to increase productivtty and reduce damage from pests and diseases. Up to the present, research has been Largely uncoordinated and the rate of success slow, but new opportunities have ariseufrom techniques In biotechnology. 82. Support for coconut, tn addition to increased suppotit for groundnut, soybean and maize (which has potential as an oil crop, once other needs,are satisfied) would strengthen the CGIAR contribution to satisfying future demand for vegetable oils. TAC has not yet considered in depth how support for research on coconut might he translated into action, but one or more of the existing Centers might participate with other instftutions in a network approach. 7.4. Aquaculture 83.' TAC considers that the future demands for cheap, high-quality animal protein can be in part met from aquaculture in all .regions, especially in areas where land is scarce, population density high, and water supply abundant. ,Furthermore, aquaculture is an ecologically sound and productive system which can return sizabLe profits to small holders whether or not assocfated iJith agriculture. As a complementary activity, aquaculture can turn small uneconomic farms into viable enterprises. 84. The main constrafnts in aquaculture appear to be inadequate reproduction and nutrition research, especially in genetics, physiology, of warm-water fish. Means of removing economic, social and institutional constraints are also needed. While aquaculture has a strong and long tradition in Asia, there are many opportunities for further Considerable opportunities also exist in Africa and Latin development. America. 85. There are many unanswered questions with respect to the areas of applied research appropriate for the System, the region or regions of In general, TAC focus, and the.mechanism to be used by the System. considers that a network operation involving regional and national institutions could be appropriate,, and if so directed by the CGIAR, d would make concrete proposals.. 8. Further 8.1. Issues Mandates and scope of mandates The relationship between are reviewed impact and of Major Concern ,.' 86. The philosophy, interpretation in Chapter 2 of the Impact Study. 236 focus of mandate is mentioned in Chapter 4 (Impact Study, Section 4.3.2.). Furthermore, in discussion of the Priorities Paper during Centers Week, several speakers stated that focus had been fundamental to that a Center with a mandate for one or two commodisuccess , implying ties was likely to achieve.greater impact than one with a broader mandate. 87. In the Impact Study, the team was more cauti.ous. They recognized the confounding effects of such things as the historical antecedents to research programs, the age and maturity of the Centers involved, ,the demonstrable extent of their various impacts, and the relative ease of technological advance i.n different envLronments or, conversely, the difficulty of the mandate challenge. They concluded that proLi.feration of commodity programs per se should not he an impediment to the Centers making contributions; the key issues are the adequacy of research resources to match designated research goals and the effectiveness of the management of those resources. 88. Other comments on mandates 1n the Impact Study relate to their diversity and overlap. In Section 2.3. it notes that SittLe conscious care was taken to ensure consistency in the charters or constitutions that established the early Centers, but those of later Centers were more tightly drawn. Both TAC and Center managements have come to recognize two types of mandate: the formal and the operational. Formal mandates are usually broader than operational ones and, in several instances., imply overlap, e.g. between CIMMYT and ICARDA; and among CIAT, IITA and CIP. The Impact Study did not see this formally permitted overlap to be an impediment, but in several different respects commented on the need to define the interrelationships among di.fferent Centers working in the same region, a point that has been taken up by TAC on several occasions. The same issue was emphasized by the Bellagio group. 89. TAC is convlntied of the need to rationalize the distrLbution of mandates among Centers (Sectton 5.3.), but sees this as an evolutionary process to be accomplished gradually In consultation with Center Boards and managements. the mandates of individual Centers are Furthermore, cont1nuaLly monltored by TAC through External Program Reviews, and TAC has also endorsed adjustments recommended as circumstances change. the concept of global (as distinct from regional) commodity mandates (Section 3.3.3.), and will use this prLnciple as a guide to further rationalization. 8.2. The CGIAR in Sub-Saharan Africa 90. TAC is strongly supportive of the ideas developed by the Bellagio group for urgent action in order to respond to the particular needs of Africa. The effects of the ,rapid rise in population, the increasing and the lack of significant severity of environmental degradation, advances in agrScuLtura1 technology present a major challenge to the CGIAR. the principal food commodities have not 91. Unlike wheat and rice, Consequently, benefitted from a pre-existing'reservoir of knowledge. progress has heen slow and the impact .of CGIAR supported research The technological problems have been compounded by constraints limited. 237 of policy, infrastructure, ,extension, etc. Although the Centers are increasingly responding to research needs by posting additional. staff to Sub-Saharan Africa, many countries are becoming resistant to the multiplication of uncoordinated regional activities. 92. The Bellagio group drew attention to the uncoordinated nature of CG activities a.nd the -general weakness of the national research systems. It suggested that there was an urgent need.for new insti.tutional mechan.isms that would enable the ,Centers to work together and collaborate more closely with national systems. 93. Although the size and diversity of Sub-Saharan Africa calls for a subreglonal approach, the basic unit for collaboration must be the individual country, and there are obvious- problems if 13 Centers attempt to work in countries with small research capacities. Most production systems in Africa include commodittes covered by more than one Center and the contributions of the non-commodity Centers are also important. Over such wide areas, dispersion of staff by a single Center leads to loss of crItica mass. Consequently, there is a need to integrate the work of difEerent Centers to work on production systems of high priority. 94. TAC proposes to explore new mechanisms for joint activities, recognizing that the CGIAR must respond to the needs of national Careful thought must therefore be given to appropriate systems. institutional and organizational arrangements that will ensure close colLaboration width national systems, a critical mass of Center scienclearly defined programs, strong leadership and adequate funding. tists, TAC considers that entities created for this purpose should have a limited Life span. In formulating proposals, TAC 95. all components of the System as well also explore immediate possibilities cooperation that is already evolving will seek close consultation with TAC will as with national systems. for strengthening, the inter-Center in Sub-Saharan Africa. 96. It would, however, be premature for TAC to go more deeply into In its these issues until the CGIAR has indicated its wishes. consideration of a QOSSible redistribution of efEort in the semi-arid tropics ) and in particular the suggested independence of the ICRISAT Sahelian Center, TAC would prefer to see the institutional options left open until the wider aspects of the problems in Africa have been thoroughly explored. 9. Conclusions Having reviewed, at its 39th meeting, the Impact Study in 97. relation to the Priorities Paper, TAC is impressed with the high degree both expressed and implied. of compatibility between the two documents, Points of divergence are relatively minor. Some, for example, relate to unfulfilled expectations on the part of national systems who, contrast Center priorities with national, rather than understandably, regional or international considerations. Others are matters of emphasis, as with TAC’s views on work in the System on non-food commodities. By and large, however, TAC would not have arrived at 238 different preparation conclusions had the Impact of the Priorities Paper. Study been available prior to the 98. With respect to the debate at the October meeting and the conclusions of the Bellagio group, TAC welcomes the clarification that these have evoked. Having reconsidered its position, TAC sees its main recommendations for changes in emphasis in the System's work as valid and consistent with the aims of the CGIAR. TAC also welcomes the opportunity to explore new mechani.sms for promoting success in Africa. Nevertheless, both in its immediate task of scrutinizing Center 99. programs and budgets and in its longer-term work of monitoring changes TAC will need clear guidanc'e from the CGIAR on the extent in emphasis, to which the proposed priorities and strategies should be implemented. CONSULTATIVE GROUPON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH STRATEGIC ISSUES - PRIORITIES (Agenda Extract Item 7) STUDY from "Main‘Conclusions Reached and Decisions Taken" -(Revised) CGIAR Meeting, May 19-23, 1986, Ottawa, Canada September 1986 241 Strategic-Issues - Priorities Study - Agenda Item‘7 : days, on The CGTAR discussed this item during one and a half May 20 and 21, 1986. The discussion was based on: - the "TAC Review of CGIAR Priorities and-Future Strategies" (AGR/TAC:IAR/85718; CG/86/7/TAC); - the report on a meeting at Bellagio, January 19-24, 1986, entitled "Future Strategies for the CGIAR", dated February 7, 1986; - the paper Priorities en.titLed "Elaborat-&on of TAC's Views on and Strategies" (AGR/TAC/IAR/85/18.1); - a paper by the CG Secretariat entitled *' Strategic Issues : Priorities Study - Summary of Contents" (CG/86/7). , The Chairman suggested and the group agreed to divide the. discussion so that four fssues would be discussed successively: or the interaction between crops (a) non-food crops; (b) sustainability, and environment; (c) Sub-Saharan Africa; and (d) priorities among A generaL discussion would follow on the next day.\ commodities. Dr. and had after 39th The Chairman then called the introductory presentations. Klaus Lampe from GTZ reviewed the outcome of the BeLlagio meeting gave information on the background against which these conclusions been made. The Chairman of TAC presented TAC's views elaborated International Centers Week 1985, the Bellagio meeting, and TAC'S; meeting in March 1986. (a) Non-food crops He said Dr. Alex McCalla of TAC presented this first issue.. TAC agreed that increased food production alone could not eradicate on the other hand, tn'creased food production waaneeded. malnutrition; Food crops could be sold domestically or abroad and thus generate income. TAC did not recommend adding any non-food crops to Center responsibilities, but did encourage attention to such crops in a farming In the disc,ussion that followed, most speakers were in systems context. the problem of agreement with the conclusions of TAC. Comments included income generation as a factor enablfng people to get access to exis,ti.ng food; the fact that income can be generated by food crops as well as by non-food crops; the need for the CGIAR to consider the changing envlronment within which agriculture is operating; and a recognition of the widening gap between the incomes of Earmers and those of other (e.g. While human productivity is very low in agriculture urban) operators. in many developing countries, the volume of trade, including interand changes may be expected in comparative national trade, is expanding, At the advantages among countries to produce agricultural products. same time, the incentives for increasing production are often very weak or lacking. \ 242 The Chairman drew the conclusion that there was a consensus and 1ittLe difference of opi.nion on the issue that thk CGIAR maintain its fundamentaL. preoccupation with increasing food production 1n developing countries while recognizing that non-food crops are important as well. Other institutions held a comparative advantage over the CGTAR in addressing the genetic issues for these crops. There was also a broad consensus on the need to continue working on non-food crops as part oE research programs on production and Farming systems, and to initiate this where it is not yet being done. Research throughout the CGIAR should emphasize income generation and IncreasIng the productivity of farmers and pay more attention to the economic and marketing context in which the farmers operate. (b) Sustainability In introducing this topic for discussion, Dr. Ola Heide of TAC defined sustainability as intensification without resource degradation, which will be the future measure of technical progress. He sai,d that there should ,be no contradIction between increasing production and doing it in a sustainable way. The multidisciplinary approach to commodity research must be consldered in a broad sense and include all the necessary discipLinary inputs related to scientific and technical knowledge on common factors of production. This approach implied collaboration of the CG Centers with factor-oriented research insti.tutions outside of the CG System. Trees and shrubs had to be addressed in the context of research programs on production systems. While a small number of delegates were inclined to favour many advocated this broader definition of separate research on factors, the multidisciplinary approach to commodity research, described as a to be addressed as required by the symphony, which allows for factors specific problems of the crop and of its interaction with its physical There is a need for aiming not only at and socioeconomic environment. lost capacconserving the productive base, but also at rehabilitating ity. Trees and shrubs research was favoured by a number of speakers as an issue that needed to be addressed within the System. The question was how to implement the recommendations relating to integrating the required factor research eEEiciently into the commodas well ascollaborating with the factority programs of the Centers, oriented institutions. The Chairman summarized the debate by observing that, obviously-, no one wanted the CGIAR to initiate full-fledged factorshould be However, merely saying that factors research programs. addressed through commodity-oriented muLtidisciplinary research programs was not suEEicient. Taking notice of the new, broader description of he remarked that the Group this approach introduced by some speakers, felt there was a need for TAC to elaborate Its views on this issue more At the explicitly and examine how this approach could be implemented. same time, it noted thatsustainability included rehabiLi.tation of Lost TAC's elaboration should provide a much more detailed productivity. treatment of the link between the work of the Centers and key interacting environmental factors, including trees and shrubs. 243 (c) Sub-Saharan Africa Professor Guy Camus introduced the discussion on Sub-Saharan Africa. He praised the ideas that came out of the meeting in BeLLagio on this issue, and summarized the problems relating to Sub-Saharan Afr-ica using the following list of key words: adaptive urgency; coordination and integrati.on of efforts; and decentralization, research; networking and collaboration with national agri.cultural research systems. He described the tasks and the characteristics of the mechanisms by Which the coordination advocated by the Bellagio group could be implemented. In the'discussion, the CGIAR was informed of a significant mdve taken by the Center Directors, with the support oE the Board Chairpersons, to appoint a committee headed by Dr. Stifel OE ITTA with the task of producing the views of the Centers on the problem of coordinating their approach to national: research systems by themselves. A ma,jority of the speakers rallied to Professor, Camus' use of the word "mechanism" instead of "entity" as a way of stressing the importance of avoiding the buildup of any bureacratic, screen-forming, intermediary layer barring the Centers from the necessary direct contact with the national research systems. It was recognized, however, that the very weakness of many of these systems did require restraint in approaching them. The complexity of the African them, in ordc?r not to overburdenenvironment, physical as well as- socio-economic, called for more location-specific approaches. Some speakers suggested that a task force could address the problem df identifying the research needs for the various subregions or countries, and could set priorities among these needs. These had to be viewed in the perspective OE the opinions of the African research leaders themselves, of the necessary communication with the non-CG institutions, and of the opportunities for efficient networking. In summarizing the debate, the Chairman found that there was of the urgency and the uniqueness of the African challenge recognition and of the diversity of the African condftfon with regard to environment and to production and farming systems. There was also recognition of the dangers and the costs of the overlapping that had occurred in the past and of the need for- coordination. He noted, however, that no one wanted to impose rigid institutional mechanisms in the name of harmonization and coordination at the risk of creating an additional layer of bureaucracy. He stressed the meaning of the preference for the word "mechanism" instead of “entity”, as suggesting the necessary flexibility in coordination as well as the need for bringing the African research leaders into a discussion OE the nature o‘f coordintition. He stated that beyond the general discussion of coordination and coordination mechanisms, the specifics of this issue had to be spelled out. He accepted suggestions that a task force be set up to address this issue and to identify research needs (initially those of a country or of a region on The task Eorce will be headed by the Chairman of TAC, a pilot basis). and include Dr. Sawadogo, Dr. McCalla, Dr. Kasembe, Mr. Caudron, Mr. Wilson and Dr. App. The task force would have to work closeLy with the committee appointed by'the Center Directors and headed by Dr. Stifel. It should present the CGIAK at Centers Week with a specific proposal for the coordinating mechanism(s), the basic issue being the coordination of the programs of the Centers in their work with the 244 African countries. The Chairman also saw a substantial desire in the Group for an assessment of the research needs in Africa and hoped that TAC could take this into account in further work on priorfties. Finally, he observed that there had been no support for. immediate independence of the ICRISAT Sahelian Center. There was a preference for dominion status with considerable autonomy in setting up programs and in financial matters, whi.le retaining the essential technological link between Hyderabad and Niamey. This did not mean that the issue was closed or that it would not be addressed again in the years to come. Responding to a number of questions about SPAAR, the Chairman gave a brfefing on this new activity. The Special Project on African Agricultural Research stemmed inFtially from discussions among Center but soon was given a separate identity ,from the CGIAR. SPAAR Directors, was based on the recognition that coordination among the donors was as Donors meetings in Tokyo, Washington urgently needed as among Centers. and Paris established mechanisms for: - assembling information prd,jects in Africa; on donor-supported programs and - assessing technology and research needs in selected African countries (begun in Senegal and Sudan); - setting up guidelines for elaborating national research strategies in collaboration with the national staff support; research systems, with ISNAR providing - exchanging in support - financing - coordinating research. (d) Priorities information to national grants to bring systems;. about African greater scientists; harmony and to individual in African networks agricultural among commodities In his introduction, Dr. Michael Arnold of TAC said that the shifts in priorities were to be understood in relative and not absolute terms. They had to be considered in the global perspective, in which the funding for agricultural research from the CGIAR represents only 2%. Thus the CG priorities do not necessarily coincide with what may be the He came back to the symphony description of the global priortties. commodtty-oriented research approach to describe it multidtsciplinary, in which the perspectives given by the as a factorial matrix approach, principal axes bring the diverse factors into play according to their importance for the specific problem at hand. a number of speakers insisted on the Following Dr. Arnold, growing importance of agriculture Sn those rainfed areas where agricultural production is at higher risk and where rice constitutes the These conditions pose new and more difficult problems for main crop. With these nuances in mind, most speakers agreed with TAC's research. A number of delegates called for conclusions on shifts in priorities. 245 more attention to he given research in agreement with a very important element,of to the problems TAC's proposal, many production of livestock production because animal husbandry systems in ,Africa. is Planning would be helped by using quantitative models of the evolution of supply and demand ,for agricultural production and would have to he done in close'collaboration with the Center Directors. Many speakers emphasized the need for reflection on how the proposed transfer of responsibilities from Centers!to national systems was to be implemented. There was support for relying on national research systems for a number of tasks for which they are at a comparative advantage over Centers, e.g. the fine adaptation of technologies to location-specific environmental requirements. The strength of national systems, however, is highly variable, and they may not all be in a position to take up these new tasks. It was the responsibility of the CGIAR and of its Centers to help prepare them to do so. Care was needed in ask-tng national systems to .assume international functions. In any case, the shift would have to be gradual and well planned. It would system and not he imposed need to respond to the wishes of the national by the CGIAR. A proposal was made of an exploratory meeting on the ,transfer of responsibility, from the CGIAR Centers to.the national programs. This meeting could involve a number of national programs and Centers. It would explore the constraints that could, limit the activity of a national program undertaking such responsibility and not be imposed ._ by the CGZAR. Among the new ventures, 'coconut raised concern from some' delegates who questioned its overall importance .and,suspected it might be a rich man's crop. Others said it .was important for numerous,small holders in a significant acreage in Africa as well as in the Pacific, and these farmers are now in need of replanting their trees. There were specific proposals to support research on this commodity. For this commodity, as well as for the vegetables and for aquaculture, speakers called for a definition of the ways for implementing TAC!s recommendations for CGIAR support, and espec'ially on how to establish ,links with the existing non-CG institutions in these areas. The Chairman concluded by observing that there was broad support of the relative priorities recommended by TAC. He stressed that no one supported the idea of freezing in nominal terms the allocation for any single commodity. As far as wheat and rice were concerned, these cereals had to he addressed in the much more d,ifECcult environment of the rural parts of the rainfed areas of Asia, where the bulk of the world's poor still live. This emphasized the need for maintaining the overall quality of research on these crops and for stressing impact on Rut maintenance research had to be done through production and income. a changed distribution oE work between the Centers and the national systems. This arrangement posed the problem of organizing the relations between the Centers and the national systems on an equal footing for partnership, while taking into account the diversity of their capacity Modulation was needed, which would to take part in these relations. call for the Centers engaging in a spectrum of diverse activities that would depend upon the strengths and weaknesses of the cooperating institutions. The input from the Centers in the future would have to be in terms of more advanced technologies than it used to be. I 246 Goal statement . The Chairman suggested the Group discuss the goal statement for Whi.le recogthe CGIAR, as drafted by TAC and by the Bellagio group. most speakers preferred the nizing the concerns of the Bellagio group, a goal statement as issued by TAC. They wished only that TAC elaborate little on *it, in order to incorporate some of the content of the Bellagio suggestion. 8' The Chairman concluded that this issue had to be given TAC saying that there is a strong preference for its statement, it has reference to the national research systems, and hopefully income generation and property. Role of women -There was a request for a discussion at a future meeting i.e. how research can be directed women and agricultural research, The Chairman asked the CG Secretariat benefitting women farmers. arrange a discussion. Publication ---- papers on to to back to provided to and It was agreed that the "TAC Review of CGTAR Priorities would not be further revised, but would be published Future Strategies" together with a supplementary paper and the conclusions of the Group, TAC would continue to refine which modified the paper in some respects. many of the issues, in additional reports or documents. Role of TAC -The Chairman suggested that the evaluation of priorities should on how this be a continuous process for TAC. There should be reflection can be done regularly in the context of the global environment, as this has a bearing on the CGIAR priorities and the programs of the Centers. In answering a comment on the amount oE work given to TAC, the The cosponsors Chairman said he fully realized that TAC was overloaded. were to prepare a paper for ICW 86 on the role and responsibility of TAC and of TAC's Chairman. MIS301 3/E12.87/11500