www.climatesecurity.cgiar.org   Julian Higuera-Florez Nohelia Palou-Zúniga Ignacio Madurga-Lopez POLICY BRIEF 2025 Adaptive social protection in Honduras: recommendations for a national strategy http://www.climatesecurity.cgiar.org/ 2 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional           KEY MESSAGES Adaptive Social Protection is a transformative strategy that integrates social protection, climate change adaptation, and disaster risk management efforts to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable households to multiple shocks or disturbances through coordinated prevention, response, and structural transformation actions. The Honduran government, through SEDESOL, is promoting the development of an Adaptive Social Protection policy that seeks to coordinate efforts in social protection, climate change adaptation, and risk management. As part of these efforts, a shared vision workshop was held with government actors, international cooperation agencies, and civil society to define key guidelines and actions to be developed. Participants in the workshop identified priorities for the Adaptive Social Protection approach in Honduras, including developing multi-hazard early warning systems, strengthening open databases for advance planning, and incorporating the adaptive approach into key regulatory, educational, and labor frameworks of the country. The need to integrate existing programs -such as Red Solidaria, PROASOL, PRONADERS or the Agroclimatic Technical Committees- within a national strategy on Adaptive Social Protection, while avoiding duplication and strengthening interinstitutional coordination, was highlighted. It was recommended that differentiated responses be designed according to the type of shock and territorial characteristics, adjusting support such as transfers, shelters, or assistance kits to the risk profiles and local capacities of each community. It was proposed to align climate and social financing through a roadmap that connects international resources with national and municipal budgets, and integrates early warning systems, social registries, and community platforms to activate anticipatory responses. The importance of building the strategy from the ground up was emphasized, institutionalizing the participation of communities and local governments, and moving towards a transformative vision that addresses the structural causes of vulnerability with a focus on climate justice, gender equity, and territorial rights. 3 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional What is Adaptive Social Protection? Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) is a comprehensive and innovative approach that strategically links social protection systems, climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk management (DRM) with the aim of strengthening the resilience of the most vulnerable populations in the face of shocks, disturbances, or emergencies of a climatic, economic, health, forced displacement, or conflict nature. This integration responds not only to a technical or programmatic need, but also to a structural reality characterized by multiple overlapping crises that disproportionately affect people living in poverty or socioeconomic exclusion (Desai et al., 2023; Aleksandrova, 2019). ASP is part of a broader set of approaches that have emerged over the last decade, such as climate-sensitive, disaster-sensitive, or shock-sensitive social protection, which all recognize the transformative power of social protection to reduce risks, strengthen response capacity, and promote sustainable long- term adaptation (Bowen et al., 2020). These approaches converge on the common goal of preventing vulnerable households from falling into or becoming trapped in poverty as a result of external shocks, and of creating more flexible, coordinated, and inclusive systems. The ASP approach proposes intervention through three complementary functions that strengthen preparedness, response, and transformation capacities. First, prevention or preparedness for shocks (ex ante) seeks to reduce exposure to risks through various strategies such as access to accurate climate information, early warning systems, land-use planning, climate- indexed agricultural insurance, or community savings and microcredit mechanisms (Bahadur et al., 2015; Bowen et al., 2020; Aleksandrova, 2019). Second, protection or response to shocks (ex post) includes actions deployed during emergencies to protect well-being, such as multipurpose cash transfers, emergency feeding programs, temporary or permanent public employment schemes, decent shelter, educational continuity, and the provision of basic health services (Kuriakose et al., 2013; Bowen et al., 2020). Finally, transformation seeks to address the structural causes of vulnerability, such as unequal access to land, the guarantee of decent employment, climate justice, the provision of quality public services, and opportunities for sustainable development in rural and urban contexts (Aleksandrova, 2020; Desai et al., 2023). This functional logic of the ASP enables for the articulation of short- and long- term policies, providing immediate responses while maintaining a focus on building structural resilience. Thus, the approach contributes both to withstand the negative impacts of shocks or disturbances but also facilitates faster and more sustainable recovery, promoting investments that diversify income, strengthen human capital, and, when necessary, support the relocation of households away from risk areas (Bowen et al., 2020). The integration of these systems offers substantial benefits: it allows for the identification of synergies between social care and protection instruments, strategies to promote resilient conditions and livelihoods, and emergency care and management protocols, improving efficiency, coverage, and agility in the face of multiple crises. This intersectoral coordination becomes even more relevant in contexts with structural inequalities, where the convergence of emergencies, as occurred with the COVID-19 pandemic and hurricanes Eta and Iota in Honduras, highlights the need for systems that not only respond but also anticipate impacts and protect productive assets, livelihoods, and community networks. At the regional level, countries such as Chile, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic have taken important steps toward ASP through the interoperability of social registries with emergency systems, the temporary expansion of cash transfers, or the incorporation of climate vulnerability indices into the targeting of beneficiaries (Marer et al., 2024; Williams & Berger Gonzalez, 2020; Tisei & Ed, 2023). However, these advances continue to face challenges related to institutionalization, multisectoral coordination, and the availability of advanced and sustainable financing. In this sense, rather than a sectoral policy, ASP represents a transformative national strategy to redefine how social, economic, and climate risks are understood and addressed in the region. Its effective implementation can contribute to a transition toward more equitable, flexible, inclusive, and sustainable systems capable of responding in an integrated manner to the multiple vulnerabilities faced by the most excluded households and communities in the country. 4 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional Why is an Adaptive Social Protection approach needed in Honduras? Honduras faces a convergence of structural vulnerabilities that amplify the effects of recurring shocks, generating profound impacts on the lives of millions of people. In terms of climate, the country is among the most exposed and least prepared to face extreme events in Latin America and the Caribbean. According to the University of Notre Dame's ND-GAIN index (2022), Honduras ranks third in the region in terms of vulnerability. This condition is 5 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional reflected in devastating events such as hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020, which caused more than 918,000 internal displacements and severe damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. In addition, climate change could push between 2.4 and 5.8 million people into extreme poverty in the region by 2030, with Honduras being one of the most affected countries (Jafino et al., 2020). In socioeconomic terms, although significant progress has been made, such as the reduction of extreme poverty in rural areas from 66.1% in 2021 to 50.5% in 2024, these achievements remain fragile in the face of recurring disruptions such as health and economic crises and disasters (INE, 2024). Inequality remains considerable: the richest 1% account for one-fifth of the country's income, while the poorest 50% have access to only 9.3% of it (WID, 2022). By 2022, more than 48% of the total population lived in poverty, and 25.2% in extreme poverty (World Bank, 2022). The Honduran economy is also highly dependent on remittances, which account for approximately 25% of GDP (BCH, 2023; INE, 2022). However, these sources of income are unstable, vulnerable to external conditions, and do not replace the need for policies targeting equitable development. From an institutional perspective, the country faces significant challenges in terms of policy fragmentation, limited coverage of social programs, and poor coordination between the sectors responsible for social protection, climate change adaptation, and risk management. Although there are multiple initiatives and regulatory frameworks, their lack of integration has limited their effectiveness. It is also crucial to emphasize that emergencies disproportionately affect population groups living in poverty and social exclusion. These shocks disproportionately affect the poorest populations for several reasons, including dependence on livelihoods that are sensitive to disturbances, residence in areas at greater risk of emergencies, or the material inability to respond and recover after adversity (Tisei & Ed, 2024; Hallegatte et al., 2016,2018; Skoufias et al., 2011). In this scenario, ASP presents an opportunity to align agendas that are already underway. For example, the national social protection policy led by SEDESOL, the climate change adaptation instruments promoted by SERNA, such as the National Adaptation Plan, and the emergency management protocols developed by COPECO under the SINAGER framework, offer existing institutional platforms that can converge into a coherent strategy. Likewise, the support of international organizations such as CGIAR, WFP, and Red Cross Honduras, and the availability of international climate finance, provide concrete opportunities to support this coordination. Moving toward an ASP policy is not only feasible but urgent in order to respond systematically to the increasingly complex challenges facing the country. What are the starting points for advancing the Adaptive Social Protection approach in Honduras? In response to the multiple crises that the country has faced in recent years, including extreme weather events, economic crises, and the COVID-19 pandemic, Honduras has begun the process of developing a national Adaptive Social Protection strategy. This effort is led by the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), with technical support from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, CGIAR Climate Security, IOM, UNHCR, and other partners. The initiative stems from the recognition of the urgent need to strengthen state and community capacities to respond to multiple crises, overcome institutional fragmentation, and move toward universal, comprehensive, and resilient systems. The ASP approach currently being promoted in Honduras is based on the coordination of three key systems: social protection, climate change adaptation, and disaster risk reduction. The intersection between these three systems, led respectively by the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), the Secretariat of Natural Resources and Environment (SERNA) together with the Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) and the Permanent Contingency Commission (COPECO), seeks to develop a coordinated multisectoral strategy focused on combining comprehensive preventive, reactive, and adaptive measures aimed at strengthening the anticipation, response, and recovery capacities of the most vulnerable populations with special emphasis on those in situations of poverty and social exclusion; linking social protection systems with climate monitoring, early warning, and risk planning mechanisms; and promoting investments that reduce exposure and improve resilient livelihoods. SEDESOL leads the country's social policy and administers programs such as Red Solidaria and PROASOL, which provide a functional basis for cash transfers and social support to vulnerable populations. Although these programs were not originally designed with an adaptive approach, they have been used during emergencies such as the pandemic and tropical storms, demonstrating their potential to be integrated with early warning systems and climate vulnerability criteria. The Secretariat of Natural Resources and Environment (SERNA) acts as the governing body for climate policy, with tools such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the Climate Change Law, and the National Adaptation Plan. In addition, its role as a focal point for climate finance allows it to align 6 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional 7 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional resources with national priorities, with an emphasis on vulnerable populations. Meanwhile, the Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG) leads agri-food policies and implements programs such as PRONADERS and the Productive Technology Bonus, together with the Agroclimatic Technical Committees. These initiatives have contributed to reducing the vulnerability of small rural producers to climate events, although not always with an explicitly adaptive approach. Finally, COPECO coordinates the National Risk Management System (SINAGER) and leads risk management and emergency response through frameworks such as the SINAGER Law and the National Policy for Comprehensive Risk Management. Its prevention, early warning, and local capacity-building actions are essential for a multisectoral Adaptive Social Protection strategy that integrates social protection, climate change adaptation, and disaster risk management. Figure 1: Conceptual Framework for Adaptive Social Protection in Honduras. Own elaboration. 8 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional On July 7, 2025, a multisectoral workshop was held with the participation of government institutions, including SERNA, COPECO, the Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Labor. Also participating were international cooperation agencies, notably the WFP, UNDP, UNICEF, and IOM, as well as representatives of civil society, such as the National Foundation for the Development of Honduras. In this space, the findings of the territorial consultations were validated and consensus was built for the design of the national strategy. Among the main findings were recurrent crop and land losses, as well as a sustained deterioration in the food security of subsistence farmers. Setbacks were also reported in the health, education, and housing sectors. Particular attention was drawn to school absenteeism linked both to extreme weather events and to forced displacement caused by violence or disasters. The loss of water sources during and after adverse events was also noted, with direct impacts on public health, as well as damage to public and private infrastructure, which has led to displacement or involuntary immobility. In the economic sphere, emphasis was placed on the growing precariousness of livelihoods, exacerbated by the sustained increase in the prices of food, fuel, and basic services. Finally, it was underscored that the limited culture of disaster preparedness and weak interinstitutional coordination continue to be critical barriers to an effective and timely response. Among the main proposals discussed, key lines of action were identified to strengthen institutional frameworks and expand the coverage of adaptive interventions in response to disasters and climate crises. These include the formulation of a National Housing Policy with a preventive and adaptive approach; the incorporation of the National Human Rights Commissioner (CONADEH) into the mechanisms for assisting people displaced by extreme weather events; and the expansion of the School Snack Program to guarantee food in emergency contexts, as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Various initiatives focused on the socioeconomic reintegration of migrants and displaced persons were also presented, such as strengthening Which inter-institutional efforts can promote and strengthen the Adaptive Social Protection approach in Honduras? Results from the Shared Vision Workshop 9 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional institutional mechanisms that guarantee access to essential services for internally displaced persons, particularly in education, where cases of exclusion have been identified due to the lack of differentiated care protocols in schools.Support was also proposed for displaced populations and returning migrants through seed capital or basic support kits to strengthen livelihoods. The need to implement mechanisms for the validation and certification of qualifications and skills acquired by returning migrants was also highlighted in order to facilitate their integration into the labor market, as well as to promote studies in Earth Sciences and Risk Management to strengthen local professional capacities. In the area of risk management, the development of multi-hazard warning systems was proposed, with the aim of strengthening the country's capacity to anticipate, respond, and adapt in a timely manner to various types of threats, such as floods, droughts, landslides, or epidemics, through integrated information and communication platforms. The need for interoperability among the databases of institutions such as COPECO, WFP, and IOM was also raised in order to avoid duplication in response, facilitate the monitoring of beneficiaries, and improve coordination. Likewise, the importance of promoting open access to data was highlighted, through the strengthening and public availability of the databases managed by COPECO and the Sustainable Development Observatory (ODS), so that both institutions and citizens can have updated and contextualized information for decision- making, advance planning, and improved interinstitutional coordination. The standardization of food rations through voucher schemes was also recommended to guarantee equity in humanitarian assistance. Similarly, it was proposed that inter-institutional protocols be developed for the implementation of anticipatory actions and post-disaster responses, drawing on the experience accumulated by SEDESOL, COPECO, the World Food Program (WFP) and the Honduran Red Cross (HRC). In this regard, the importance of reviewing and institutionalizing multipurpose cash transfer protocols and tools, adapted to different types of crises, was highlighted. In the education sector, the strengthening of the comprehensive school approach was proposed, incorporating components such as school gardens for food diversification with fresh produce, water collection systems, and hygiene supplies for children. It was also suggested that schools at risk be mapped to adapt response protocols and guarantee educational continuity in emergency contexts. In the area of labor policy, it was proposed that the National Employment Policy be revised to include an unemployment insurance mechanism for people affected by disasters. The need to strengthen the contributory social security system to expand its coverage and capacity to respond to crises was also underscored. Finally, it was urged that the adaptive social protection component be explicitly included in the next update of the National Risk Management System Law (SINAGER), thus ensuring a more comprehensive and climate risk-sensitive regulatory framework. Additionally, the creation of a Climate and Human Mobility Observatory was proposed, led by institutions such as SEDESOL and SERNA, with support from IOM, to foster the generation of evidence to guide decision-making. 10 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional 11 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional Recommendations Leverage existing program capacities and strengthen interinstitutional coordination: Programs such as Red Solidaria, PROASOL, the Agroclimatic Technical Committees, PRONADERS, and COPECO protocols are already operating in vulnerable territories. It is essential to consolidate a national strategy that connects these efforts, avoids duplication and strengthens coordination. • Design differentiated responses according to the type of shock and territorial characteristics: The ASP approach is based on the recognition that not all risks affect all territories and all people in the same way. Therefore, it is recommended that social support measures, such as transfers, shelters, or assistance kits, be tailored to the type of emergency and the risk profiles of each community. This differentiation allows for a more relevant, equitable, and efficient response that recognizes diverse forms of vulnerability and local capacities. • Align climate and social financing to ensure sustainability: Honduras can leverage international climate financing mechanisms to link its social protection and disaster risk reduction priorities. It is recommended to establish a roadmap for coordinating these resources with national and municipal budgets, ensuring financial sustainability and a territorial approach. • Recognize the strategic role of local communities and governments in building resilience: ASP efforts must be designed and implemented at the local level. The experiences gathered during the workshop show that local leaders, community organizations, and municipal governments are key actors in identifying risks, activating responses, ensuring cultural relevance, and monitoring impacts. It is recommended that their participation in the design, implementation, and evaluation of the national strategy be institutionalized, ensuring that programs are built from the bottom up. • Strengthen the integration of climate information into social assistance and protection systems: It is essential to strengthen interoperability between COPECO's early warning systems, social information systems (such as SEDESOL's single beneficiary registries), and community monitoring systems (such as CODELES' local health censuses). Successful examples, such as the pilot projects of the WFP and Honduran Red Cross on anticipatory actions, demonstrate that it is possible to anticipate floods or droughts and activate cash transfers, relocations, or supply deliveries before damage occurs. • Advance a transformative vision of adaptive social protection: The ASP approach must go beyond crisis response. It is recommended to prioritize actions that address the structural causes of vulnerability, such as unequal access to land, lack of sustainable economic opportunities, territorial exclusion, and precarious public services. The inclusion of climate justice, gender equity, and territorial rights in the design of this strategy will be key to its legitimacy and effectiveness. • 12 Protección social adaptativa en honduras: recomendaciones para una estrategia nacional References Aleksandrova, M. (2019). Social protection as a tool to address slow onset climate events: Emerging issues for research and policy (Discussion Paper). German Development Institute. Bahadur, A., K. Peters, E. Wilkinson, F. Pichon, K. Gray, and T. Tanner. (2015). The 3As: Tracking Resilience across BRACED. Working Paper, Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters (BRACED), London. BCH – Banco Central de Honduras. (2023). Remesas Familiares en Honduras 2017-2022. 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Banco Mundial. https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/countryindex/rankings/ https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/countryindex/rankings/ https://wid.world/es/country/eshonduras/ 14 Guatemala ante la degradación de tierras y la movilidad humana: una agenda para la acción integrada www.climatesecurity.cgiar.org POLICY BRIEF 2025 www.climatesecurity.cgiar.org Authors: Julian Higuera-Florez, Nohelia Palou-Zuniga & Ignacio Madurga-Lopez Suggested Citation: Higuera-Florez, J., Palou-Zuniga N. & Madurga-Lopez, I. (2025). Adaptive social protection in Honduras: recommendations for a national strategy. CGIAR Climate Security. Graphic design and editorial support: Raquel Ross-Hernández. Acknowledgments: This work was carried out with support from the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs. The ideas, opinions and comments therein are entirely the responsibility of its author(s) and do not necessarily represent or reflect DFAT policy. This work has also benefited from the support of CGIAR’s science programs on: Climate Action; Gender Equality and Inclusion; and Food Frontiers and Security. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund: https://www.cgiar.org/funders/. We would also like to thank the participants and the following members of the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), who were instrumental in the organization and development of the consultation activities of this research: Darguin Amaya, Saydy Hernández, Karen Arteaga, Camilo Hernández, Oscar Gonzáles, Katherine Rodríguez and Ana Catalina Espinoza. We also thank the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for their support in the field. 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