Accelerated data-driven responses to El Niño in Southern Africa Hambulo Ngoma, Mazvita Chiduwa, Kelvin Mulungu, Peter Setimela, Isaiah Nyagumbo, Jonathan Odhong, and Sieg Snapp. The current El Niño event is expected to drive below- average rainfall across much of Southern Africa. The rainfall deficits will likely result in below-average 2024 harvests in most countries within the region, including surplus- producing South Africa and Zambia. El Niño events experienced in the past have had a devastating effect. For example, during the 2015/2016 season, El Niño led to a decline in food crop production by up to 66% in various Southern African countries1, leading to a food crisis throughout the region exacerbated by the effects of the increasingly prevalent cyclones. The most recent being Idai and Kenneth, experienced in 2019 in Mala- wi, Mozambique, and parts of Zambia and Zimbabwe. Across the region, tempera- tures are projected to rise significantly. For example, the temperature in Malawi is projected to increase by 2oC on average, and rainfall will reduce by 1.8% and 5.1% in the northern and southern regions by 2050.2 A similar trend is projected for Zambia, with rainfall likely to decline by 3% while the temperature will increase by 1.9oC.3 These projections don't forebode well for agricultural produc- tion in the region. Food security crops like maize, are constantly under threat. For example, during 7 out of the last 11 El Niño incidents in Malawi, there was an average decline of more than 20% in maize yield.4 These realities highlight the farmers' limited resilience to climate shocks. More resilience-enhancing technologies and innovations are needed to give farmers a fighting chance against the adverse effects of climate change. For example, during the severe El Niño of 2015/2016 season climate- resilient maize yielded twofold more than key commercial hybrids in on-farm trials.5 Context 1.John Herbert Ainembabazi, Joseph Rusike and Boaz Keizire (2018). The 2015-16 El Niño- induced drought crisis in Southern Africa: Lessons from Historical Data and Policy Implications 2. CIAT and World Bank, (2018) - https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100325 3.https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10668-019-00320-9 4. Cairns JE, Hellin J, Sonder K, Araus JL, MacRobert J, Prasanna BM: Adapting maize to climate change in sub- Saharan Africa. Food Security 2013, 5:345-360 5. Setimela, P. S., Lunduka, R., Zaman-Allah, M., O, N., & Cairns, J. E. (2017). Performance of elite drought tolerant maize varieties selected across eastern and southern Africa in season 2015-16 under smallholder farmers’ conditions. CIMMYT Distressed soybeans in a farmer’s field in Chongwe, Central Zambia. February 2024. Photo by Mazvita Chiduwa / CIMMYT. 1 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100325 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10668-019-00320-9 In preparation for the expected El Niño in the 2023/2024 season, AID-I conducted surveys with around 1,100 smallholder farmers across 14 districts in central Malawi and the southern, central, and eastern provinces of Zambia. These surveys aimed to evaluate farmers' awareness and anticipation of the projected El Niño, understand their independent responses, and ultimately identify quick, effective strategies to assist farmers in mitigating El Niño's impacts. Key results from the surveys were as follows: 2 AID-I's proactive approach to El Niño-proof farming What did farmers know about El Niño? About 42% of farmers interviewed were aware of the projected El Niño event during the 2023/2024 season in Malawi and Zambia (Figure 1). Figure 1: Proportion of farmers aware of projected El Niño during the 2023/2024 season. Aware about El Niño n = 599 Malawi, n = 501 Zambia Malawi Zambia 0 10 20 30 40 42.2 41.5 Pe rc en t AID-I Info Note The main sources of information on El Niño include radio or TV, public extension and farmer to farmer exchanges (Figure 2). Fig 2: Main sources of information on anticipated El Niño during the 2023/2024 season. Of all the farmers that were aware of El Niño, over 90% were concerned of potential negative effects on agriculture. Their three main concerns were that El Niño will reduce rainfall, increase droughts and reduce intra-season rainfall days (Figure 3). Figure 3: Worries associated with the projected El Niño event during the 2023/2024 season. 3 0 60 80 Social media NARS NGO extension Farmer to farmer Public extension Radio or TV Percent Malawi Zambia 20 40 0 40 60 Malawi Zambia Percent 20 Reduced temperature Increased incidences of pests and diseases Mid-season dry spell Early onset of rainfall Increased temperature Early season rainfall Delayed cessation of rainfall Floods Prolonged dry spell Fewer rainy days Drought Reduced rainfall Delayed onset of rainfall AID-I Info Note More than 80% of the farmers who were aware of the anticipated El Niño expected it to reduce crop output and about a quarter anticipated total crop failure (Figure 4). According to literature, El Niño induced yield losses vary from 15% to 90% depend- ing on the drought stage.6 Figure 4: Anticipated effects of the projected El Niño event during the 2023/2024 season. 4 In Malawi and Zambia, farmers expressed their intent to respond to El Niño by opting for early maturing and drought-resistant crops, alongside adopting climate- smart practices such as conservation agriculture and sustainable intensification (Figure 5). AID-I is committed to enhancing these strategies initiated by farmers to combat multiple stressors. Figure 5: Planned actions to minimise the effects of El Niño event during the 2023/2024 season. 6. Cairns et al (2013). Malawi Zambia 0 100 80 Increased crop output Pest and disease outbreaks Total crop failure Reduced crop output 60 30 20 Percent Malawi Zambia 0 80 Staggered planning Engage on off-farm activities Irrigation farming Other climate-smart agriculture practices Drought tolerant crop varieties Early maturing crops Percent 40 20 Some drought tolerant varieties supported for scaling under AID-I project demonstrated resilience after a dry spell of nearly 21 days. Chadiza District, Eastern Zambia. February 2024. Photo by Christabel Chabwela / CIMMYT. 5 AID-I Info Note Following the survey results, AID-I has collaborated with stakeholders from the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs, to expedite the deliv- ery of climate smart solutions and crucial information to farmers facing El Niño's nega- tive impacts. These collabora- tive efforts aim to enhance farmers' capacity to adapt to and mitigate the challenges posed by El Niño through targeted actions and support mechanisms explained below. Rapid deployment of digital agricultural advisories on El-Niño The forecast of an El Niño for the 2023/ 2024 season neces- sitated an early warning campaign to raise awareness of the hazards associated with El Niño, and more importantly potential response mecha- nisms for smallholder famers. AID-I partnered with other CGIAR initiatives including Excellence in Agronomy to design a rapid advisory campaigns dubbed the GROWSMART campaign. To facilitate rapid and extend- ed reach, AID-I deployed additional digital advisories based on an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) platform hosted by VIAMO. This rapid El Niño advisory response across Malawi and Zambia aims to (i) raise awareness of the El Niño phenomenon and its potential effects and (ii) provide advisories for farmers to raise their resilience against the El Niño phenomenon. Boosting farmers’ resilience: Smart, Integrated Solutions 6 AID-I Info Note https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/news/g-r-o-w-s-m-a-r-t-the-farmers-essential-guide-to-thriving-in-the-face-of-el-nino-and-other-climate-challenges/ With support from AID-I, several seed companies in Malawi and Zambia marketed early maturing and drought tolerant maize varieties. Drought tolerant maize varieties were developed by international research institu- tions such as CGIAR in collab- oration with national pro- grams and the private sector. Companies in Malawi and Zambia were able to market and sell an estimated 10,000 metric tons of drought toler- ant maize. One company in Malawi reported high seed sales of drought tolerant maize as farmers were antici- pating impacts of an El-Niño event. Due to the late start of the season, farmers focused on planting legumes like cowpea to mitigate against drought and the short season. Eight key messages were prioritized to achieve these objectives, the first of which was a definition of El Niño. Messages emphasized the value of timely planting, the use of drought tolerant varie- ties and diversification of crop portfolios, managing soil moisture and managing soil fertility. These messages were approved by national govern- ments in both Malawi and Zambia prior to deployment. As of January 31, 2024, at least 152,000 unique callers had listened to some of the campaign’s key messages with an average of more than two messages per caller. The most engaging content was the definition of the El Niño event and the advice on the proper choice of varieties. 7 AID-I Info Note Supporting scaling of multi-stress tolerant crop varieties Olipa Zulu inspecting her soyabean field during a dry spell. Katete District, Eastern Zambia. February 2024. Photo by Christabel Chabwela / CIMMYT. AID-I spearheaded efforts to bolster resilience against climate variability and change, emphasizing the expansion of climate-smart agricultural practices. It has actively incor- porated a variety of climate- smart technologies and methods throughout the farmingcycle, aiming to mini- mize losses and maximize benefits. AID-I utilized diverse dissemi- nation tools to reach a broad spectrum of smallholder farmers, demonstrating its dedication to integrating sustainable agriculture practices widely. Among these tools were demonstra- tions of climate-smart technol- ogies through lead farmer models with TLC in Malawi and Zambia; village-based advisors (VBAs) with AGRA in Tanzania; agriculture develop- ment agents (ADAs) with CRS in Zambia; Agronauts with Meridian-FSU in Malawi; Hub-agro-dealers with AFAP in Malawi; Space-to-place (S2P) soil health interventions with IFDC; the Munda Make Over TV show with CIAT on the Zambia National Broad- cast Corporation (ZNBC); animated videos by Scientific Animation Without Borders (SAWBO); and Viamo's Interactive Voice Response (IVR) platforms. In addition, AID-I has part- nered with several seed companies to improve availa- bility and supply of quality, multi-stress tolerant maize and legume varieties in Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia. In response to the emerging threats of fall army worm, AID-I is supporting bulking of breeder seed and fast-track production of commercial seed for maize hybrids toler- ant to the pest. AID-I is also supporting irrigation through partners like TLC and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 8 AID-I Info Note Leveraging dissemination tools to support scaling of proven climate-smart agricultural practices Farmers accessing advisory messages on the Viamo platform. Photo courtesy of Viamo. Forging ahead AID-I will continue to work through scaling partners to accelerate delivery of various innovations to the last-mile. Key activities will include supporting seed system strengthening to make available and acces- sible, multi-stress tolerant seeds while facilitating demand creation among farmers; rapid deployment of digital agriculture advisors using various platforms to enable farmers access needed information; and strength- ening soil health interven- tions. AIDI is seeking feedback from farmers who accessed the El Nino campaign in follow up focus group discussions and telephone surveys to improve programing for future climate responses. AID-I will continue to sup- port on-going promotion of proven climate smart innovations, irrigation and digital agriculture advisory campaigns. https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/event/munda-makeover-farming-reality-tv-show-launch-in-zambia/ https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/event/munda-makeover-farming-reality-tv-show-launch-in-zambia/ https://aidi-cimmyt.sawbo-animations.org/ A farmer at Makungwa irrigation site diverting water to irrigate her field. Rehabilitation of the irrigation site located in Kasenengwa District, Eastern Zambia was supported by the AID-I project. February 2024. Photo by Christabel Chabwela / CIMMYT. About the Southern Africa Accelerated Innovation Delivery Initiative (AID-I) MasAgro Africa Rapid Delivery Hub AID-I is a Feed the Future Activity that aims to ensure smallholder farmers in target zones in Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia have information and innova- tions needed, using market-based approaches, to maintain or improve food production to mitigate the impacts of global input price spikes resulting from the Russia – Ukraine crisis. This is done by strengthening legume and maize seed systems to improve availability and access by farmers to multi-stress tolerant and nutritious crops; rapid delivery of agricultural advisories to the last mile; and improving soil health and fertilizer use efficiency. About authors: Ngoma and Mulungu are Agricultural Economists; Chiduwa and Nyagumbo are Agronomists; Setimela is Seed Systems Specialist; Odhong is Science for Impact Specialist and Snapp is Program Director – Sustainable Agrifood Systems, all at CIMMYT. 9 AID-I Info Note