Planning dam operation 
and irrigation 
development on the 
Blue Nile in Sudan

Mohammed Basheer, Khalid Siddig, 
and Claudia Ringler

2nd PAKISTAN WATER WEEK: 24 - 28 October 2022 



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Introduction 

❑ The Blue Nile is one of 
the main tributaries 
Nile and contributes 
around 60% of the 
mean annual flow. 

❑ Large scale irrigated 
agriculture is 
practiced on the Blue 
Nile in Sudan. 

❑ The Blue Nile Basin in 
Sudan will be altered 
by the construction 
and operation of 
GERD



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Introduction 

❑ Existing irrigation schemes

▪ Gezira and Managil
▪ Northwest Sennar
▪ Suki Minor pump schemes
▪ Rahad 1
▪ Gunied

❑ Planned irrigation schemes

▪ Kenana 1
▪ Kenana 2
▪ Kenana 3
▪ Kenana 4

▪ Roseires
▪ Dinder South
▪ Dinder North
▪ Rahad 2 South
▪ Rahad 2 North



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Objectives

❑ How to plan dam operations 
and irrigation expansion?

▪ Energy generation

▪ Irrigated area expansion

▪ Cropping pattern

❑ A three-step iterative process

(1) Simulate river 
system: build a SF depicting 
the RS with acceptable degree 

of accuracy

(2) Search for 
efficient plans: connect 

the SF to AI algorithm to 
find optimum/efficient 

solutions

(3) Deliberate the 
search outcomes



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Objectives

21 inflow, abstraction, 
and reservoir nodes

Step1: simulate

❑ Convert the natural system into a river 
system simulation model

We control for 
hydrological uncertainty 
by including 33 river flow 
sequences



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Objectives Step2: search

❑ Seven optimization objectives to 
maximize mean:

1) GERD’s annual energy

2) Roseires’ annual energy

3) Sennar’s annual energy
4) Annual irrigation water use in 

irrigation expansion in Sudan

5) Annual irrigation water use in 
existing irrigation in Sudan

6) Annual irrigation water use by 
wheat in irrigation expansion in 
Sudan.

7) Annual municipal water use in Sudan



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Objectives Step2: search



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Objectives Step3: deliberate

❑ Collaborative stakeholder 
assessment, possibly in a 
deliberation workshop

▪ Representatives from different 
sectors and interest groups

▪ Understand and deliberate 
trade-offs

▪ Negotiate and agree on 
interventions

Loucks, D.P., van Beek, E., 2017. Water resource systems planning and management: An introduction to 
methods, models, and applications, Advances in Water Resources. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1016/0309-

1708(81)90046-4



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Conclusions

❑ Multi-objective optimization that accommodates multiple decision 
variables simultaneously can help design efficient dam operating rules and 
cropping patterns for new irrigated areas.

❑ System performance objectives should be balanced when selecting a 
package of interventions. E.g., we considered 6 crops.

❑ Other constraints such as crop rotations should be considered in the 
deliberation process.

❑ The analysis considered different hydrological conditions but additional 
climate change considerations are also possible.

❑ Next steps…



Thank you