Climate Governance, Diplomacy and Negotiations Leadership Program LONG TERM LOW EMISSION AND CLIMATE RESILIENT DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES (LTS) SABRINA TRAUTMAN 21 February 2024 What I didn’t anticipate_____________ TOOLS AND METHODS TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPING LONG-TERM STRATEGIES “UN Climate Panel tells us we have 10 years left to begin a radical transformation of this civilization to move quickly to a zero emissions society…we need a new economic vision and a game plan ….we are moving from the age of progress to the age of resilience” – Jeremy Rifkin https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-sector Addressing climate change requires an economy wide approach Low Emission Development Strategies A LEDS articulates concrete actions, policies, programs and implementation plans to advance economic growth, improve environmental management, and meet development objectives A robust LEDS could include the following elements: A country’s integrated development goals and objectives, national greenhouse gas inventory, and economic and resource data Long-term projections of business-as-usual economic growth and greenhouse gas emission pathways Alternative development scenarios that achieve economic and development goals while slowing the growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions and supporting climate change resilience Prioritized policies, programs and measures—identified through broad stakeholder engagement—that support the low emission development scenarios Implementation plans and strategies for attracting private sector investment Developing long term planning is challenging due to: • The time frame that extends across multiple decades; and • The need to deal with complex socioeconomic and biophysical systems. Long term planning is subject to great uncertainty, such as: • Future climate impacts; • Technological innovation and deployment; • Policy development and implementation • Availability of large-scale solutions; and • Reliability of current data, models and skills to interpret evidence Uncertainty in long term policy development Long-term climate mitigation goals can have a significant impact on decision makers’ choice of priorities, policies and mitigation options for the short- and mid-term. In particular, if a long-term vision or goal is not taken into account when establishing short- or mid-term actions, this can lead to the design of policy packages that are capable of achieving a short- or mid-term target, but that are not able to deliver the structural and economic transformations needed to achieve a subsequent, and more ambitious longer-term goal. In your country are there specific adaptation goals? How do you quantify those? MULTIPLE SECTORS AND STAKEHOLDERS MUST COME TOGETHER TO AGREE UPON AND WORK TOWARD A COMMON VISION, DEFINE RELEVANT TARGETS AND NEGOTIATE THE PATHWAYS TO ACHIEVE THAT VISION. Visioning is method for collaboratively outlining a compelling vision of a preferred future. Visioning a desirable future is a critical step in creating a powerful strategy and provides the basis for developing interventions, services, policies and partnerships that will be required to achieve that future. • Brings to light what individuals aspire to and diminish competing objectives. • Visions can support deeper engagement of actors who may have diverse objectives. • Foster relationships and shift values among stakeholders • The communication and creation of a shared vision builds ownership and ensures the necessary buy in to carry out the actions necessary to achieve the vision. A vision is critical to initiating a transformative shift Fill in the blank A climate impact my country will be facing in 2050_____________ This would require ______ to address it Gambia: Developing their 2050 Climate Vision • The Gambian government had a solid foundation from which to build its long-term vision, having already set some of the most ambitious goals of any LDC and taken practical steps to advance progressive policy and programmes for low-carbon and climate-resilient development. • The Gambia’s 2050 Climate Vision builds on its existing and significant efforts to implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement, including a National Adaptation Plan of Action, National Appropriate Mitigation Actions and a forthcoming National Adaptation Plan (NAP), which is currently in the preparatory phase. https://pubs.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/2021-06/20271IIED.pdfhttps://meccnar.gov.gm/sites/default/files/2021-06/The%20Gambia%202050%20Climate%20Vision-MECCNAR.pdf Building on previous efforts and setting ambition goals “At the national level, transformation is considered most effective when it considers a country’s own visions and approaches to achieve sustainable development in accordance with their national circumstances and priorities. “ https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WGIIAR5-Chap20_FINAL.pdf Gambia The purpose of the 2050 Climate Vision outlined in this document is to provide such a roadmap. The vision will also assist the country in making the right investment decisions regarding where scarce resources should be deployed. By prioritising climate-related development actions, the 2050 Climate Vision will also provide a framework for responding to global disruptions and ensure that hard- earned development gains are not eroded or lost. Our 2050 Climate Vision serves not only as a strategy for a better future but also as a bedrock for current investment. https://meccnar.gov.gm/sites/default/files/2021-06/The%20Gambia%202050%20Climate%20Vision-MECCNAR.pdf Designing an inclusive process https://pubs.iied.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/2021-06/20271IIED.pdf Coordination: Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Natural Resources (MECCNAR) and the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs (MoFEA) Participants: Representatives from national government ministries, departments and agencies, local government authorities and regional councils, civil society, youth and academic groups, industry and trade associations, development partners, the media and the private sector. Engagement activities: visioning workshops, virtual consultations, email surveys, questionnaires and key informant interviews Guiding Principles Building on the Gambian concept of ‘tesito’ (self-reliance, drawing upon one’s own resources) several key principles underpin the development of our 2050 Climate Vision and long-term strategy: Inclusivity. Use inclusive processes based on informed participation, equity (including intergenerational equity) and social inclusion Scientific Information. Draw on the best scientific knowledge available so that policy decisions and programmes of action are well-informed and evidence based. Innovation and Learning. Foster a culture of innovation, continuous learning and take a flexible, pragmatic approach. International linkages. Develop international cooperation and solidarity. Precautionary Measures. Take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimise the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Climate Justice. Achieve climate justice and adopt the principle of ‘polluter pays’. Sustainable Development. Maintain a decent environment and ensure sustainable development Creating a national vision demands significant resources, which is why high- level political leadership is important. Inclusion not only added value to the end product but also helped to ensure that government and development partner climate interventions are in alignment for the foreseeable future. Valuable insights and ideas were brought forward, leading to a more nuanced and robust vision statement. It also created a rich national dialogue on climate change and development and helped to build national buy-in for the vision and its implementation. Lessons and insights https://meccnar.gov.gm/sites/default/files/2021-06/The%20Gambia%202050%20Climate%20Vision-MECCNAR.pdf Our Vision By 2050, The Gambia aspires to be a climate-resilient, middle income country through green economic growth supporting sustainable, low emissions development, contributing its fair share to global efforts to address climate change. Our Mission • We will endeavor to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with enhanced adaptive capacities and resilience, and play our part to address climate change through vigorous public agency backed by the full engagement of our citizens from all walks of life • We recognize that while The Gambia’s contribution to climate change has always been marginal, our country faces extraordinary challenges due to the impacts of climate change. We therefore are committed to act with the necessary sense of urgency. • We commit to transforming The Gambia into a country with an environmentally conscious and educated population for the sustainable development and management of our natural resources, cities and habitats. This includes transport and other infrastructure, tourism, sustainable agriculture and forestation, all of which leads to reduced greenhouse gas emissions, less pollution and clean air and water, all contributing towards high standards of living. https://meccnar.gov.gm/sites/default/files/2021-06/The%20Gambia%202050%20Climate%20Vision-MECCNAR.pdf Core Values Our core values and culture, including our concept of “tesito” (self reliance, drawing upon our own resources), that defines and unites us as Gambians, will inform and underpin all of our efforts in this important journey we embark upon. We are committed to working with all parties in the spirit of multilateralism and international solidarity. We regard climate change as an existential global threat which all of humanity must play their part. Our Strategic Priorities We are committed to pursuing a low-carbon and climate resilient development pathway as a central strategy in our quest to realize our vision and will endeavor to put in place the necessary policies and institutions. We will spare no efforts to position our country to tap the enormous opportunities that a low-carbon economic growth pathway offers. To achieve our vision and mission, we have prioritized and organized our policy commitments and actions in four strategic and integrated focal areas: • Climate resilient food and landscapes: Agriculture, food security, forestry and natural resources (including water, biodiversity, and wildlife) • Low emissions and resilient economy: Energy, transport, infrastructure and the key economic sectors of tourism and financial services • Climate-resilient people: Health, education, equitable social development and human settlements • Managing our coasts in a changing environment: Climate-aware integrated coastal zone management VISION BUILDING Secure high level coordination Invest time and resources needed Engage economy wide sectors and a wide range of stakeholders using multiple tools for interaction. Consider a process facilitation. Include development and climate aspirations Craft and validate vision statement with agreement on underlying priority mechanisms. Transformative change includes major long-term changes in the way we operate and may shift us between or into new ‘system’ and processes. The future that is coming often requires significant change Transformative change requires sometimes radically new interventions, policies and partnerships Moves us beyond incremental change and results in major long-term changes in the way systems operate Transformation The overall objective of the strategy is to contribute to the sustainable development of Benin, by integrating climate considerations into the country's strategic sectoral operational plans, to make them lower in carbon intensity and more resilient to climate change. More specifically, the strategy is developed and implemented in order to: • Strengthen the resilience of local communities and economic production systems; • Reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions; and • Strengthen the protection of communities, especially those of the most vulnerable in the face of natural disasters. Benin https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies A vision is critical to initiating a transformative shift “South Africa follows a low-carbon growth trajectory while making a fair contribution to the global effort to limit the average temperature increase, while ensuring a just transition and building of the country’s resilience to climate change” South Africa’s Low Emission Development Strategy 2050 South Africa https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/long-term-strategies A vision is critical to initiating a transformative shift Generally, it is better to have a group of motivated people, who are each committed to a shared set of goals, agree to a prioritization together than to rely on the intuition of a single leader. Alignment, confidence and commitment result when the group is able prioritize together. SCENARIOS Low Emission Development Strategies A LEDS articulates concrete actions, policies, programs and implementation plans to advance economic growth, improve environmental management, and meet development objectives A robust LEDS could include the following elements: A country’s integrated development goals and objectives, national greenhouse gas inventory, and economic and resource data Long-term projections of business-as-usual economic growth and greenhouse gas emission pathways Alternative development scenarios that achieve economic and development goals while slowing the growth rate of greenhouse gas emissions and supporting climate change resilience Prioritized policies, programs and measures—identified through broad stakeholder engagement—that support the low emission development scenarios Implementation plans and strategies for attracting private sector investment Why do we need foresight to for long term climate change policy planning? Decisions we make today can guide the course of the near and long-term future Foresight is the process of looking to the past and the present to envision and prepare for different futures, which then allow us to make strategic decisions for the future Have you been exposed to a scenarios process? SCENARIOS Scenarios are used as a method to think about possible future states and how uncertainties might play out. Answering ‘what if’ questions that describe multiple alternative futures spanning a key set of critical uncertainties. A group of scenarios are alternative dynamic stories that capture key ingredients of uncertainties of the future. They reveal the implications of current trajectories, thus illuminating options for action. “Scenarios of different rates and magnitudes of climate change provide a basis for assessing the risk of crossing identifiable thresholds in both physical change and impacts on biological and human systems”. (IPCC Technical Summary, 2007.) Long term scenario analysis The analysis can also directly inform the GHG and non- GHG target setting in line with developed scenarios GHG emission pathways can provide a clear indication of where each sector is heading towards and allow stakeholders to develop a common understanding on the long-term perspective Long-term scenario analysis on GHG emission pathways until 2050 can provide a theoretical underpinning to inform a country’s long-term vision. Policymakers can use this scenario analysis to set a vision for achieving full decarbonisation across all sectors The IPCC’s four RCPs are the latest generation of scenarios that provide input to the climate models. These scenarios describe the climate impacts of a range of possible future GHG emissions and consequent trajectories of atmospheric GHG concentrations. The RCP scenarios fix the amount of GHG concentration in the atmosphere and analyse the resulting changes in global temperatures (and other variables such as precipitation) at various points in the future (e.g. mid-century 2046-2065 and end of century 2081-2100) relative to pre-industrial levels. Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) with different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS UNDER INTERMEDIATE FUTURE SCENARIOS Emissions Scenario RCP 4.5 AREA EXPERIENCING DROUGHT IN 2050 UNDER AN INTERMEDIATE FUTURE SCENARIO EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS UNDER A WORSE-CASE SCENARIO Emissions Scenario RCP 8.5 AREA EXPERIENCING DROUGHT IN 2050 UNDER A WORSE-CASE FUTURE SCENARIO Picking out differences at subnational levels is difficult Scenario analysis in the development of African LTSs SOUTH AFRICA Low Emission Development Strategy, 2050 National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, 2019 Long-term Mitigation Scenarios, 2007 RWANDA Green Growth and Climate Resilience National Strategy for Climate Change and Low Carbon Development, 2011 ETHIOPIA Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy, 2011 HIGH Growth LOW GROWTH LOW Mitigation HIGH Mitigation High mitigation effort - which is where were would like to be No growth and low mitigation effort with emissions still increasing High growth and low mitigation effort Low growth and high mitigation, although emissions may be decreasing as a result of economic hardship, not effort In the Long Term Mitigation Strategies, four stories are presented on the axes of Growth and Mitigation A B DC Agreed terms Julia Galef, Scout Mindset, 2021 Tom Rivett Carnac, Ted Radio Assumptions: primary drivers for each Scenario include assumptions and uncertainties. Actions: individual mitigation actions we may take. Action packages: Agreed combinations of actions, with GHG emissions trajectories. Scenarios: future ‘stories’, or paths, each populated with assumptions, action packages, sub- scenarios, data, including costs, benefits, trajectories. Alternative emission paths, with time horizons of 2025 and 2050 Scenario process for South Africa Julia Galef, Scout Mindset, 2021 Tom Rivett Carnac, Ted Radio Scenario names and description Generate local and international assumptions List the actions and options for action that tie to each scenario and its group of attached assumptions Group actions into action packages Conduct macro-economic & sensitivity analysis of packages Conduct research and modeling, ‘populate’ the scenarios 5 scenarios were generated for the long term emissions reductions Examining multiple analyses can illuminate LEDS actions under consideration, provide insights on common or contradictory results needing further exploration, help to identify trade-offs among LEDS options with respect to their ability to meet development priorities, and support stakeholder dialogue and decision making https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/61757.pdf MANAGING TRADEOFFS – ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION IN LONG TERM STRATEGIES Fill in the blank A tradeoff involves _________ Long-term emissions reduction strategies are front and centre on the climate agenda, it’s even more important to considering adaptation’s role in mitigation—and not just for forests. “Countries must find a way to take adaptation into consideration broadly across their long-term strategy (LTS), or else risk failing to achieve their 2050 mitigation goals” National adaptation plans (NAPs), National adaptation programs of action (NAPAs) Broader national climate legislation Climate-sensitive development plans Various sector plans Sustainable development goals (SDG) Implementation plans LTS Adaptation Planning Need to strengthen the link between mitigation and adaption in climate policies Search for triple win strategies that result in lower emissions, build resilience and promote development simultaneously Source: Mitchelle y Maxwell (2010) Development Strategies Adaptation Strategies Mitigation Strategies Low Emissions Development Climate Compatible Development Climate Resilient Development Adaptation and mitigation linkages Many emissions reduction strategies increasingly require adaptation to ensure long-term success. LTSs that fail to take climate change impacts into account risk missing their mark Tackling adaptation and mitigation together—under the umbrella of sustainable development—creates efficiencies, “win-wins” and opportunities for innovation Biggest wins for emissions reductions over the long term are long-lasting development decisions that create opportunities to send emissions rates down— and keep them down—over multiple decades infrastructure investments policy- and rule-making around zoning, building codes, technology standards, public procurement major public investments that shape a country’s development trajectory, such as building a telecommunications industry The politics of emissions reduction can be tricky, and adaptation can help build the necessary political will for mitigation Incorporate adaptation, and situate both mitigation and adaptation in the context of citizens’ long-term development aspirations Need to strengthen the link between mitigation and adaption in climate policies Search for triple win strategies that result in lower emissions, build resilience and promote development simultaneously Source: Mitchelle y Maxwell (2010) Non-resilient development Adaptation at the expense of mitigation Mitigation at the expense of development Holistic climate compatible development Climate Resilient Development Mitigation at the expense of adaptive capacity Maladaptation Unsustainable development N o n -c ar b o n co -b en ef it s Jo in t p la n n in g G H G s en si ti ve ad ap ti o n Trade-offs can be defined as balancing of factors that cannot be attained at the same time or in combination, involving, for example, pathways to achieve various social, economic and environmental goals of sustainable development Emissions increased Emissions reduced V u ln er ab ili ty in cr ea se d V u ln er ab ili ty r e d u ce d ADAPTATION M IT IG A T IO N Sustainable win-win • Water demand management • Heat management from buildings New vulnerabilities • Monoculture plantations for biofuels • Expanded reliance on hydro power Adaptive emissions • Air conditioning • Expanded irrigation systems Unsustainable • Coastal urban sprawl • Permanent deforestation Multiple scale approach Sector Climate action Mitigation benefit Adaptation benefit Forestry Forest conservation and rehabilitation Trade-offs Carbon sequestration Increase resilience to water-related risks (floods, landslides, mudslides, torrents) Monoculture plantations can be susceptible to fire Agriculture and land management Use of crop varieties with higher drought and pest resistance; Sustainable land management practices (efficient nitrogen use and soil management) GHG emissions savings from reduced energy consumption for irrigation and improved soil quality Increase resilience to droughts and floods Biofuel production in some context Water management Protect and restore marine ecosystem such as seagrass beds, mangroves, saltmarsh, coastal wetland,; storm water management Carbon sequestration Enhanced resilience to water-related risks (coastal floods and storms; droughts) Solar water pumps in arid zones Urban planning Urban green space expansion (parks, green roofs) Carbon sequestration, GHG emissions savings from reduced energy consumption for cooling Increased resilience to extreme heat and urban floods (by decreasing urban heat islands effect and increasing water absorption capacity) Building less dense areas; use of air-conditioning THANK YOU! Questions and Answers Slide 1 Slide 2 Slide 3 Slide 4 Slide 5 Slide 6 Slide 7 Slide 8 Slide 9 Slide 10 Slide 11 Slide 12 Slide 13 Slide 14 Slide 15 Slide 16 Slide 17 Slide 18 Slide 19 Slide 20 Slide 21 Slide 22 Slide 23 Slide 24 Slide 25: Transformative change includes major long-term changes in the way we operate and may shift us between or into new ‘system’ and processes. Slide 26 Slide 27 Slide 28 Slide 29 Slide 30 Slide 31 Slide 32: Why do we need foresight to for long term climate change policy planning? Slide 33 Slide 34 Slide 35: SCENARIOS Slide 36 Slide 37: Long term scenario analysis Slide 38 Slide 40 Slide 41 Slide 42: Scenario analysis in the development of African LTSs Slide 43 Slide 44 Slide 45: Scenario process for South Africa Slide 47 Slide 48 Slide 49 Slide 50 Slide 51 Slide 52 Slide 53 Slide 54 Slide 55 Slide 57 Slide 58 Slide 59 Slide 60 Slide 61 Slide 62 Slide 63 Slide 64