User-Centered Water and Pasture Monitoring and Early Warning System for Conflict Management in Pastoral Areas of Ethiopia Sintayehu W. Dejene1*, Sintayehu Alemayehu1,2, Getachew Tegegne2, Yodit Y.2, Lidiya Tesfaye1 Tadesse Terefe1, and Liyuneh Gebre3 March 2025 The Alliance of Biodiversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute (EIAR), Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Irrigation and Lowlands Harnessing User-Centered Water and Pasture Monitoring, Prediction and Early Warning System (ET - Monitoring) for Conflict Management in Pastoral Areas of Ethiopia Sintayehu W. Dejene1*, Sintayehu Alemayehu1,2, Getachew Tegegne2, Yodit Y.2, Lidiya Tesfaye1 Tadesse Terefe1, and Liyuneh Gebre3 1International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Nairobi, Kenya 2The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Addis Ababa, P.O. Box P.O. Box 5689, Ethiopia 3Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) *Corresponding author; Email: s.workeneh@cgiar.org March 2025 https://et.waterpointsmonitoring.net/ mailto:s.workeneh@cgiar.org i Table of Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ ii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ iii Abstract .................................................................................................................................... iv 1. Background .........................................................................................................................1 2. Objective .............................................................................................................................2 3. Project area..........................................................................................................................2 4. Approach .............................................................................................................................3 4.1. Community engagement and needs assessment ............................................................3 4.2. System design ..............................................................................................................3 4.3. Hydrological and forage modeling ...............................................................................4 4.4. Climate spatiotemporal characteristic assessment and prediction..................................4 4.5. Early warning system and alerts ...................................................................................5 5. Results ................................................................................................................................6 5.1. Climate spatiotemporal characteristic assessment and prediction..................................6 5.2. Water and pasture monitoring and forecasting .............................................................9 5.3. Information dissemination ......................................................................................... 13 5.4. Anticipatory alerts and advisory services: providing early warnings to reduce conflicts 17 5.5. Climate risk and resource-based conflict management advisory service for anticipatory action 23 6. Conclusion and implication ............................................................................................... 24 6.2. Implication for conflict management .......................................................................... 25 ii List of Figures Figure 1. Map shows the project area. .................................................................................. 3 Figure 2. Seasonal rainfall climatological patterns of Borena zone and seasonal cycle averaged from 1981-2022 (42 years, since 1981). The Borena zone is a bimodal rainfall cycle, MAM domination with followed SON season rainfall pattern........................................................... 7 Figure 3. Seasonal minimum, maximum and mean Temperature patterns and seasonal cycle of temperature. ...................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 4. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values with timescales of 12-months from 1993 to 2023 in Borana Zone, Southern Ethiopia. ......................................................................................... 9 Figure 5. User-centered livestock water and pasture monitoring platform .............................. 10 Figure 6. View of the waterpoints conditions monitoring, profile and information. ................. 11 Figure 7. Map displaying forage information ...................................................................... 12 Figure 11. Flow chart indicating a water and pasture point monitoring system and information dissemination approach for resource-induced conflict management ....................................... 24 iii List of Tables Table 1. Agropastoral and pastoral-advisory services to mitigate and adapt water-level changes ...................................................................................................................................... 20 iv Abstract Access to up-to-date information on water and pasture availability is crucial for sustainable pastoral development, mitigating climate change-induced risks, and managing resource-based conflicts. To address these challenges, the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute (EIAR), Oromia Agricultural Research Institute (OARI), and other key institutions, has been implementing the Livestock Water Monitoring and Risk Management System (LWMRMS) Project in Ethiopia with financial support from the Gates Foundation (GF). To enhance pastoral resilience and promote peaceful resource use, the Alliance and its partners developed and installed a fully functional, interactive, and dynamic web-based digital platform, ET-Monitoring (https://et.waterpointsmonitoring.net/monitoring), using a Human-Centered Design (HCD) approach. The platform provides real-time water and pasture resource information in English, Amharic, and Afan Oromo, offering critical decision-making support for pastoralists, agro- pastoralists, decision-makers, humanitarian agencies, and other stakeholders. The system enhances spatial and temporal decision-making by providing real-time data on water and pasture availability. This enables pastoralists to determine where (spatial locations of high- forage and grazing areas, water resource availability, and livestock movement routes) and when (optimal timing for grazing and watering) to move their livestock. By reducing competition over scarce resources, the system helps minimize water and pasture induced conflict risks and promotes more sustainable pasture and water use. By ensuring strategic grazing and watering practices, ET- Monitoring contributes to sustainable and peaceful resource utilization. It reduces direct contact among competing pastoralist groups, preventing disputes while promoting equitable access to resources. Furthermore, by preventing overgrazing and water depletion, the system helps maintain ecosystem health and long-term pastoral productivity. The platform also plays a key role in data-driven mediation and conflict prevention. It empowers local governments, elders, waterpoint managers, and rangeland managers with evidence-based decision-making tools to support conflict-sensitive resource management. By fostering coordinated resource use, it strengthens local peacebuilding efforts, enhancing cooperation and trust among pastoralist communities. In addition to conflict prevention, ET-Monitoring provides timely advisory services for crisis response planning to provide humanitarian assistance. It enables https://et.waterpointsmonitoring.net/monitoring v humanitarian agencies and decision-makers to anticipate drought-related challenges and plan interventions such as emergency water trucking and identification of alternative grazing areas. This proactive approach ensures timely assistance to vulnerable communities, reducing the negative impacts of drought and resource scarcity. By integrating real-time monitoring with advisory services, ET-Monitoring plays a transformative role in reducing climate and resource- induced conflicts, strengthening pastoral resilience, and promoting sustainable natural resource management. Expanding its coverage to other pastoral regions, including Somali, Afar, and Southern Ethiopia, will further enhance its impact in building climate-resilient, peaceful pastoral communities. Keywords: Agro-advisory services, resource-based conflict, decision makers, near-time water and pasture resource information 1 1. Background Pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia face increasing challenges due to climate change, resource scarcity, and escalating competition over water and pasture1. Prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, and shrinking grazing lands have exacerbated conflicts among pastoral groups, threatening livelihoods, food security, and social cohesion2. Limited access to timely and accurate information on water and pasture availability has further hindered effective decision-making, leading to unsustainable resource use, overgrazing, and heightened tensions over scarce natural resources34. To address these challenges, the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), the Oromia Agricultural Research Institute (OARI), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and other key national and local institutions, have implemented the Livestock Water Monitoring and Risk Management System (LWMRMS) project in Ethiopia. Supported by the Gates Foundation (GF), this initiative aims to enhance pastoralists’ resilience by providing near real-time access to water and pasture resource information to mitigate resource-based conflicts and support sustainable livestock management. As part of this effort, the ET-Monitoring platform (ET - Monitoring) was developed and installed using a Human-Centered Design (HCD) approach5. The platform offers interactive, dynamic, and web-based decision-support tools that provide pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, decision-makers, humanitarian actors, and other stakeholders with real-time data on:1)Spatial and temporal availability of water and pasture, 2) geographical location and conditions of water points, 3) biomass availability per hectare for grazing, 4) livestock movement routes between water points, and 5) resource-based conflict early warning and management advisory services. The ET-Monitoring platform plays a critical role in informed decision-making, enabling pastoralists to sustainably and peacefully manage water and grazing resources. By reducing direct competition over scarce resources, the system reduced the risk of conflict and promotes data- 1 IGAD 2023. Early Warning Systems for Pastoral Communities in the Horn of Africa. Nairobi, Kenya. 2 FAO 2022. Building Climate Resilience for Pastoral Communities through Data-Driven Decision Making. Rome, Italy 3 World Bank Group 2021. Digital Solutions for Pastoralists: Leveraging Technology for Climate Adaptation and Conflict Prevention. Washington, D.C 4 USGS 2022. Remote Sensing for Water and Pasture Monitoring in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions. Washington, D.C. 5 https://alliancebioversityciat.org/stories/transforming-resilience-pastoral-areas-ethiopia https://et.waterpointsmonitoring.net/ 2 driven mediation and local governance in resource management. Additionally, it enhances crisis response planning by providing timely information for emergency interventions, such as emergency water trucking and alternative grazing site identification during resource scarcity periods. Through the integration of real-time data, predictive analytics, and advisory services, the ET-Monitoring system empowers local communities, waterpoint and rangeland managers, and policymakers with the tools necessary to harmonize resource use, strengthen community peacebuilding efforts, and build resilience against climate-induced shocks in Ethiopia’s pastoral regions. 2. Objective The objective of this report is to demonstrate the importance of a User-Centered Water and Pasture Monitoring, Prediction, and Early Warning System in enhancing resource-based conflict management and resilience in pastoral areas of Ethiopia. 3. Project area The project is piloted in the Borana Zone of the Oromia Region, southern Ethiopia. Borana is an administrative zone covering approximately 45,434.97 square kilometers, located between 3°36′– 6°38′ North latitude and 3°43′–39°30′ East longitude (Figure 1). It lies about 570 kilometers south of Addis Ababa and shares borders with Kenya to the south, the West Guji Zone to the north, the Somali Region and Guji Zone to the east, and the Southern Region to the west. The Zone is predominantly lowland (~75%), shaping its arid and semi-arid climate, with small pockets of sub- humid areas that influence agro-pastoral practices. The rangelands are characterized by tropical savannah vegetation, consisting of varying proportions of open grasslands and perennial woody vegetation. The primary economic activities in the zone include pastoralism and agro-pastoralism, which serve as the main livelihoods for the local communities 3 Figure 1. Map shows the project area. 4. Approach 4.1. Community engagement and needs assessment The methodology begins with a participatory approach, ensuring that the water and pasture monitoring system is designed to meet the specific needs of local pastoral communities. Through focus group discussions, interviews, and workshops, the project engages pastoralists, community leaders, and other stakeholders to identify the challenges they face in managing water and pasture resources. The Human-Centered Design (HCD) approach is key in this phase, as it prioritizes the end-users’ needs, preferences, and cultural practices. Indigenous knowledge is incorporated to ensure the system resonates with information exchange experience and preference, local practices and is culturally sensitive, enhancing its acceptance. Vulnerability assessments are conducted to identify communities most at risk, ensuring the system provides targeted solutions for the most vulnerable groups. 4.2. System design Following community engagement, the design and development of the system take place. The system incorporates remote sensing technologies, such as satellite imagery, and ground or field data to provide real-time data on water and pasture conditions. The design process adheres to a Human-Centered Design approach, ensuring that the platform is intuitive, accessible, and easy to use, even for those with limited technological experience. Participatory design workshops are held 4 to ensure the system’s functionality aligns with user needs. Local communities provide valuable feedback on interface design, usability, and data presentation, ensuring that the information provided is actionable and relevant. Data collected through these methods includes rainfall patterns, soil moisture, temperature, and vegetation health, forming the basis for accurate forecasting and prediction. 4.3. Hydrological and forage modeling The system’s predictive capabilities are enhanced by integrating hydrological and forage models. Hydrological models predict water availability at various waterpoints by accounting for rainfall, runoff, evaporation, and groundwater inflows using water balance model. To ensure accuracy, the model was calibrated and validated with field data obtained from water gauges installed at key locations. For forage modeling, the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model is used to determine the current and predict pasture biomass, considering factors such as rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture. These models offer short-term and long-term predictions of water and pasture availability, enabling pastoralists to plan accordingly. The participatory nature of the methodology ensures that these models are relevant to pastoralist practices, as feedback from users helps refine and improve model predictions over time. 4.4. Climate spatiotemporal characteristic assessment and prediction To analyze climate trends and variability, long-term climate data from 1981 to 2022 were sourced from the CHIRPS dataset (UC Santa Barbara) and the CRU-TS4.07 dataset (Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia). A diverse set of statistical methodologies was employed, including Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) analysis, drought and extreme event indices, wavelet analysis, correlation studies, and trend tests. This comprehensive analytical approach provided in-depth insights into the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate variability and trends. In addition to statistical assessments, the methodology integrated multiple weather prediction systems, blending traditional indigenous forecasting methods with modern meteorological techniques. By synthesizing insights from both approaches, the reliability and accuracy of climate predictions were significantly enhanced. Beyond technical analysis, the study emphasized community engagement, ensuring that climate predictions were not only data-driven but also aligned with local knowledge systems. This approach helped improve early warning 5 systems and decision-making processes, making climate information more accessible and actionable for pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. 4.5. Early warning system and alerts An early warning system is central to the methodology, providing real-time alerts on water and pasture conditions. To facilitate easy understanding on the general condition of the waterholes in the region using expert knowledge, waterholes were classified into five categories based on their current condition as Good, Watch, Alert, Near-Dry and seasonally dry. The system allows for the identification of water availability risks using different color-coded alert levels: Green, yellow, gold, red, and black-grey colors represent different alert levels for each waterpoint as indicated below. With these clear, color-coded alert levels, Ethiopia's pastoralists can more effectively plan for the unpredictable, safeguarding their livelihoods and the water security they provide for communities at large. This new integrated monitoring and forecasting system is a crucial development that empowers pastoralist communities to better navigate the challenges posed by climate change, by providing them with the comprehensive information they need to manage water and pasture resources and as well as reduce resource induced conflict. By using participatory methods, the system is tailored to local communication preferences, including Community Information Center (CIC), Water Points Monitoring System platform, monthly bulletin, seasonal pastoral climate advisory, awareness creation activities for stakeholders, school outreach programs, extension officers, zone-level stakeholder exchange meetings, kebele-level meetings, and SMS and digital channels. This ensures that pastoralists, even in remote areas, receive timely information. The early warning system is designed to empower pastoralists by giving them advance notice of critical resource conditions, enabling them to take anticipatory action, such as relocating livestock to areas, determining the time and place of watering and grazing with sufficient resources. The system’s alerts play a crucial role in reducing competition for resources and preventing conflicts, which are often triggered by water and pasture scarcity. 4.6. Conflict prevention and management The system not only provides near real time water and pasture information for resource management but also serves as a tool for conflict prevention. The participatory design ensures that the system fosters cooperation and resource sharing among different pastoralist groups. By giving pastoralists access to timely and accurate information, the system helps prevent overgrazing and waterpoint depletion, which are common causes of conflict. The early warning system also enables 6 neighboring groups to plan jointly, reducing tensions and promoting peace. Additionally, the system helps detect early signs of resource depletion, allowing interventions before conflicts escalate. Community-based conflict resolution mechanisms are integrated into the system, offering a platform for dialogue and negotiation among pastoralists, helping them resolve disputes peacefully. 4.7. Building local capacity To ensure sustainability and long-term success, the system includes a capacity-building component that empowers local communities to use the information. Training sessions are conducted for pastoralists, community leaders, and local experts to help them use the information effectively, interpret, and make informed decisions. The training is designed to be hands-on and participatory, allowing users to familiarize themselves with the information and its features. 5. Results 5.1. Climate spatiotemporal characteristic assessment and prediction The results show that the rainfall pattern is similar to that of equatorial East African countries like Kenya, with more than half of the rainfall expected during the spring (MAM) season, and small rainfall patterns of approximately 32% are observed during the autumn (SON) season (Figure 2). The pattern seen during both seasons shows a gradient from the zone's northwest to southeast regions. April is the region's wettest month, accounting for roughly 28% of total annual rainfall. The southwest part of the zone is hotter all year than the north-central part. Max-temp cooler during JJA; the diurnal temperature range is greatest in December and January. The southeastern regions of the zone are experiencing significant increases in drought occurrence during the spring (MAM) season and normal conditions during the autumn season. Throughout the study periods, the southeastern region experienced the greatest increase in temperature (Figure 3) 7 Figure 2. Seasonal rainfall climatological patterns of Borena zone and seasonal cycle averaged from 1981-2022 (42 years, since 1981). The Borena zone is a bimodal rainfall cycle, MAM domination with followed SON season rainfall pattern 8 Figure 3. Seasonal minimum, maximum and mean Temperature patterns and seasonal cycle of temperature. The 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis shows that Ethiopia has experienced significant droughts between 1993 and 2022, with notable years of drought occurrence in 1998, 2000, 2002-03, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2015-16, and 2021-22. The Borana Zone specifically saw extreme droughts in 2000, 2006, 2016, and 2022, along with mild droughts in 1998, 2003, and 2009, and severe droughts in 2015, 2028, and 2021. The frequency of extreme drought events has increased in the past two decades, while the intensity of drought events in recent decades surpasses those of earlier periods. Previous studies support these findings, showing an overall increase in drought frequency and intensity. The region is experiencing drought more frequently, with higher livestock mortality rates compared to previous years. 9 Another factor affecting rainfall variability in Ethiopia in general and the study area in particular is El Niño-Southern Oscillation events associated with below-average rainfall (Conway 2000). Various studies have shown that the recurrent drought in the last 30 years was due to El Niño induced low rainfall events. This study has also found that the incidence of drought was due to the erratic behavior and unreliable distribution of monsoon rainfall. The probability of drought in the region is expected to increase due to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns due to global climate change. Figure 4. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values with timescales of 12-months from 1993 to 2023 in Borana Zone, Southern Ethiopia. 5.2. Water and pasture monitoring and forecasting The water and pasture monitoring and forecasting system is designed to provide pastoralists with crucial, real-time information to better manage their resources and respond to climate change 10 challenges. The system's key features and functionalities include: 1) the geographical location of waterpoints, along with geospatial data and characteristics of each point; 2) water level or depth information for each waterpoint; 3) condition assessments of the waterpoints; 4) spatio-temporal predictions of pasture availability; 5) biomass per hectare data; 6) livestock movement routes between waterpoints; 7) pastoral-specific agro-advisory services; and 8) resource-based conflict early warning and management advisory services (Figures 5). Figure 5. User-centered livestock water and pasture monitoring platform The platform provides users with site-specific data, such as the relative depth, rainfall, and evaporation levels at each waterpoint, which are essential for managing livestock. Additionally, it tracks the travel time required to reach available resources, helping pastoralists plan ahead to avoid forage shortages and move their herds to areas with better resources. One of the most valuable 11 aspects of the platform is its ability to provide up to six months of weather forecasts, offering pastoralists and government agencies the foresight needed to plan and prepare for increasingly unpredictable weather patterns due to climate change. Furthermore, the platform excels in replicating field water level measurements, demonstrating its effectiveness in simulating water depths by combining remote sensing data with hydrological modeling. The system uses seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasted water levels to categorize the waterpoint status as Good, Watch, Alert, Near-Dry, or Dry. This status information is disseminated to local communities to aid in resource management and decision-making (Figure 6). Overall, the platform empowers pastoralist communities with comprehensive, actionable information to manage water, pasture, and livestock more effectively, while adapting to the changing climate and reducing the risk of resource-based conflicts. Figure 6. View of the waterpoints conditions monitoring, profile and information. Forage information from the system (https://et.waterpointsmonitoring.net/forage) also provides crucial data on the current status of pasture availability in Ethiopia’s pastoral areas. The system offers real-time updates and visualizations of forage conditions at the woreda level, mapping the spatial distribution of available pasture and highlighting areas of concern where forage is limited or degraded. The forage status is categorized into different levels, such as "Good," "Watch," https://et.waterpointsmonitoring.net/forage 12 "Alert," and "Dry," allowing pastoralists to quickly assess the condition of the rangelands (Figure 7). The system also predicts the amount of forage biomass per hectare, offering insights into the potential carrying capacity of the land. These predictions are generated by considering key factors such as rainfall, soil moisture, temperature, and vegetation health, helping to forecast forage availability for the upcoming months. Such data plays a critical role in supporting pastoralists' decision-making, allowing them to plan livestock movement and avoid overgrazing in areas where forage is insufficient. This system, by providing accurate, localized, and timely information, enhances resilience in pastoral communities and helps mitigate resource-based conflicts. Figure 7. Map displaying forage information The main outcomes of the project included the development of innovative and dynamic climate resilient water and pasture monitoring system for conflict management, enhanced pastoralists’ resilience through access to near real time water and pasture resource information, strengthened water and pasture information and agro-advisory dissemination tools to improve decision-making 13 and drought planning, and built gender-responsive water and pasture information system to mitigate drought risks. The profile mapping was also developed for each water point by displaying all the relevant information including water use sector, livestock type and number, climate risk profile, climate adaptation strategies, small-scale irrigation, population and gender information, and crop type (Figure 8). 5.3. Information dissemination A total of 28,256 people, ranging from pastoralists to policymakers, accessed near real-time data on water levels, availability, forage conditions, status of waterpoints, and early warnings through various information dissemination platforms. These platforms were designed to ensure that all stakeholders, particularly the pastoral community, received timely, accurate updates, enabling anticipatory actions to manage water and forage scarcity. These platforms are: • Digital Water Points Monitoring System: This system disseminates real-time updates on water availability, forage conditions, and early warning alerts through email notifications and customizable dashboards. Users can subscribe to receive updates on waterpoint status, forage condition, warnings, and technical advisory services. The platform includes detailed water point profiles with geolocation, usage statistics, and supports decision-making for water resource planning, early warnings, and resilience-building efforts. Figure 3. User-centered water monitoring platform 14 • Community Information Center (CIC): The CIC was instrumental in distributing water information, water point status, and early warning alerts to local populations. It helped pastoralists stay informed about water conditions, enabling informed anticipatory actions to address potential water and forage shortages. Figure 4. The Community Information Center (CIC) Post in different waterpoints of Borana Zone • Awareness creation for stakeholders: Awareness sessions educated various stakeholders, including pastoralists, leaders, local government bodies, development partners, and NGOs, on how to use data on water levels, availability, forage conditions, water point status, and early warnings. These sessions promoted collaborative planning and aligned efforts to prevent water scarcity and forage shortages, ensuring timely responses to challenges. Figure 5. Stakeholder awareness creation on waterpoint water level, status and early warning in Borana Zone • School outreach programs: Local schools were used to inform younger generations about water availability, forage conditions, climate change, and sustainable resource 15 management. Students were taught how to access and use water and forage data, and disseminate information to their households, creating a multiplier effect within the community. Figure 6: Educating school communities on waterpoint water level, status and early warning in Borana Zone • Extension officers: Agricultural and livestock extension officers were trained to interpret and share water and forage data, water point status, and early warning information. They played a key role in translating these updates into actionable responses, leveraging their strong connections with pastoralists to ensure effective communication and preparedness. • Seasonal Pastoral Climate Advisory: Disseminated through multiple channels, this advisory includes seasonal climate forecasts, water and forage conditions, livestock health risks, and market implications. It provides actionable guidance for pastoralists, local authorities, and development partners. Messages are tailored to local languages and regularly updated, ensuring timely and effective communication, enabling proactive resilience-building against climate risks. Figure 7: Seasonal Pastoral Climate Advisory in Ethiopia 16 • Monthly Bulletin: The Monthly Bulletin provides updates on water and forage conditions, water point status, and practical advisory notes for sustainable water use. It is disseminated via email, social media, and SMS alerts to ensure real-time access to critical information. Figure 8. Monthly overview of waterpoint status with practical advisory message • Zone-level stakeholder information exchange meetings: Regular meetings facilitated information exchange among government officials, NGOs, and community representatives. These meetings were crucial for sharing updates on water availability and forage conditions, discussing early warning alerts, and coordinating interventions to address water scarcity and forage shortages. • Kebele-level meetings: Local meetings were held to raise awareness on accessing and utilizing data on water levels, forage availability, and early warnings. These discussions fostered collaborative action to manage water and forage access during dry spells and build community resilience. • SMS and other digital channels: SMS and digital platforms like EIAR pastoral extension and platform ambassador channels ensured that urgent updates on water availability, forage conditions, and interventions reached even the most remote pastoral communities. Mobile alerts and social media platforms were used to amplify the reach of critical messages, enhancing preparedness and resilience within the community. 17 5.4. Anticipatory alerts and advisory services: providing early warnings to reduce conflicts The Anticipatory Alerts and Advisory Services aim to empower pastoralists with actionable insights that can help them manage water and forage resources sustainably, reducing the potential for conflicts and promoting peace among different pastoral communities. These services offer early warnings of resource scarcity and provide critical information on where, when, and how to manage water and grazing for livestock. 5.4.1. Where to graze and water livestock 5.4.1.1. Spatial location of high forage and grazing areas for grazing The advisory service provides spatial data on areas with high forage availability. This allows pastoralists to target the best grazing lands during critical periods, reducing overgrazing and ensuring sustainable land management. The service helps identify areas with ample pasture and informs pastoralists about potential migration routes to reach these areas. 5.4.1.2. Spatial location of water resource availability for watering Information about water availability is provided in real-time, detailing the locations of functional water points and alternative water sources. This helps pastoralists plan their livestock's watering needs, ensuring that water scarcity does not lead to conflicts over limited resources. 5.4.1.3. Movement routes Data-driven advice non-overlapped movement routes is provided, helping pastoralists plan their migrations during dry spells. These routes are mapped based on real-time information about water points, forage availability, and weather patterns. The system also highlights potential areas of conflict where resources are scarce, helping pastoralists avoid these zones. 5.4.2. When to graze and water livestock 5.4.2.1. Timing of grazing The advisory services provide guidelines on the optimal timing for grazing livestock. Based on the analysis of pasture growth patterns and water availability, rangeland manager receive recommendations on when and where to graze their herds to minimize overgrazing, protect fragile 18 ecosystems, and ensure pasture sustainability. This also helps avoid overcrowding in specific areas, preventing conflicts over grazing resources. 5.4.2.2. Timing of Watering: Similarly, the advisory offers guidance on the best times for watering livestock, ensuring that water consumption is efficient and equitable. The timing takes into account the fluctuating availability of water points, especially during dry periods, ensuring that pastoralists don’t overburden limited water resources and manage livestock health effectively. 5.4.3. How to graze and water livestock sustainably and peacefully The advisory services also provide best practices for sustainable and peaceful grazing and watering. This includes guidelines on managing livestock movements to avoid overcrowding at water points or grazing areas, ensuring that local communities and neighboring pastoralists can coexist peacefully. It also includes conflict-prevention strategies based on the equitable distribution of resources, reducing tensions between pastoral groups that rely on the same water points or grazing grounds. 5.4.4. Empowering stakeholders with evidence-based decision-making The information also empowers local governments, elders, water point managers, and rangeland managers with evidence-based decision-making information. This data helps mediate conflicts by facilitating the peaceful and coordinated use of shared resources, especially in areas prone to competition over water and grazing areas. 5.4.4.1. Local governments and elders Local governments and community elders are key decision-makers in the pastoralist community. By providing them with real-time data on water points, grazing areas, and forage availability, the system supports them in making informed decisions to manage resources equitably and peacefully. This also enhances their role in conflict mediation and resource distribution. 5.4.4.2. Waterpoint managers and rangeland managers Waterpoint managers and rangeland managers are equipped with information that helps them oversee and manage the distribution of resources, ensuring that water points are used efficiently 19 and that grazing areas are not overburdened. They can also direct pastoralists to alternative resources before conflicts arise. 5.4.5. Supporting community peacebuilding efforts The Coordination aspect of the system plays a key role in community peacebuilding. By harmonizing resource use among pastoralists, the system ensures that competing groups have access to essential resources in an orderly and peaceful manner. 5.4.5.1. Resource use harmonization: The advisory services facilitate collaborative resource use strategies, where different pastoralist groups can share resources (water and grazing areas) peacefully. Coordination is particularly critical in areas where multiple pastoralist communities rely on the same resources, as it helps prevent conflicts and ensures fair access to resources. 5.4.5.2. Supporting peacebuilding efforts: The information from the advisory support in peacebuilding by promoting cooperative approaches to resource management. By disseminating early warnings and coordinating the use of resources, the system helps create a foundation for long-term peace and resilience-building within communities. 5.4.6. Resource-induced conflict management advisory service The Early Warning System (EWS) plays a pivotal role in empowering pastoralists to take timely actions to reduce the impacts of water scarcity and avoid conflicts. By analyzing data on water points, weather patterns, and forage availability, the system provides actionable insights to prevent resource-induced conflicts and ensure livestock survival. 5.4.6.1. EWS for Water and Forage Scarcity: The EWS offers updates on the status of water points, highlighting potential risks and warning pastoralists to conserve water or seek alternative sources (Table 1). For example: • Green (Good Status): Water point is in good condition, and usual water use can continue. 20 • Yellow (Watch Status): Water conservation is recommended due to high likelihood of shortage. • Gold (Alert Status): Seek alternative water sources and prioritize domestic and weak livestock. • Near Dry (Critical Status): Water points are nearing depletion; prioritize domestic use. • Seasonal Dry (Critical Seasonal Status): Seek alternative water sources; follow suggested routes. Table 1. Agropastoral and pastoral-advisory services to mitigate and adapt water-level changes Waterpoint status Scientific description Definition towards local context Proposed agropastoral and pastoral-advisory services Good The mean scaled depth over the previous 10 days is greater than the long-term median depth Adequate amount of water level at this time • Recommend using the water pond as usual as there is an adequate amount of water. • Continuously monitor water levels to ensure they remain within the optimal range. • There is a X% probability of no rainfall for month X week X; thus, reduce pond water consumption and conserve water for upcoming dry periods by promoting water-saving practices such as fixing leaks, avoiding excessive water usage, and recycling greywater for non-potable purposes. • Advise on regular maintenance of water ponds and purification methods to ensure clean water supply for household needs. • Educate farmers on the importance of clean water sources and proper sanitation to prevent waterborne diseases among livestock. • Recommended use of efficient irrigation techniques and crops • Regularly maintain and desilt the pond to remove accumulated debris, vegetation, and sediment that can reduce water volume and quality. 21 • Involve local communities in pond restoration efforts through participatory planning, awareness-raising campaigns, and capacity-building workshops on water conservation and sustainable land management practices. Watch The scale depth over the previous 10 days is between 50% and 100% of the long-term median depth Less adequate amount of water level at this time • There is a X% probability of no rainfall for month X week X; thus, advise pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to use the water pond for domestic and livestock with optimizing livestock watering schedules. • There is a X% probability of rainfall for month X week X; thus, advise pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to use water ponds for all uses with irrigation schedules and focusing on high-value crops or drought-tolerant varieties to optimize water usage. • Suggest storing and preserving fodder to reduce the water requirements for the livestock feed during dry periods. • Regularly maintain and desilt the pond to remove accumulated debris, vegetation, and sediment that can reduce water volume and quality. • Involve local communities in pond restoration efforts through participatory planning, awareness-raising campaigns, and capacity-building workshops on water conservation and sustainable land management practices. Alert The scaled depth over the previous 10 days is between 3% and 50% of the long-term median depth. Inadequate water level at this time • There is a X% probability of no rainfall for month X week X; thus, advise pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to use the water pond for domestic and weak livestock with optimizing livestock watering schedules and use our movement route to identify water points with good status for other livestock. • There is a X% probability of rainfall for month X week X; thus, advise pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to use water ponds for domestic and livestock with optimizing livestock watering schedules. • Regularly maintain and desilt the pond to remove accumulated debris, vegetation, and sediment that can reduce water volume and quality. 22 • Involve local communities in pond restoration efforts through participatory planning, awareness-raising campaigns, and capacity-building workshops on water conservation and sustainable land management practices. Near dry The scaled depth over the previous 10 days is less than 3% of the median depth. Very small amount of water level at this time • Prioritize domestic water needs for human consumption, cooking, and sanitation to safeguard public health and hygiene. • There is a X% probability of rainfall for month X week X; thus, advise pastoralists and agro-pastoralists to use water ponds for domestic and weak livestock with optimizing livestock watering schedules. • Alert households to impending water shortages and provide guidance on emergency water conservation measures such as limiting non-essential water use and storing emergency water supplies. • Initiate emergency measures such as rationing water, prioritizing livestock types and essential crops, and implementing water-sharing agreements among farmers. • Coordinate with local authorities or humanitarian organizations to facilitate access to emergency water sources. • Provide guidance on alternative water shortages coping strategies, such as selling non-essential livestock or adjusting herd sizes to match available water resources. • Suggest using our livestock migration route to the waterpoints with good status. • Regularly maintain and desilt the pond to remove accumulated debris, vegetation, and sediment that can reduce water volume and quality. • Involve local communities in pond restoration efforts through participatory planning, awareness-raising campaigns, and capacity-building workshops on water conservation and sustainable land management practices. 23 Seasonally dry The scaled depth over the previous 10 days is almost zero due to the dry season with no rainfall. No water available at this time. • Suggest using our livestock movement route to the waterpoints with good status. Support pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in exploring alternative water sources such as groundwater wells, water trucking, community water supply schemes or accessing emergency livestock watering points to meet immediate water needs. • Recommend livestock destocking or relocation to areas with better water availability to reduce pressure on local water resources. • Coordinate emergency water supply interventions such as water trucking, and emergency borehole drilling. • Provide guidance on sanitation and hygiene practices to minimize health risks associated with no water availability in the water pond. • Conduct maintenance and repair work on waterpoints during dry periods to ensure they are ready to capture and store water when rainfall returns. • Regularly maintain and desilt the pond to remove accumulated debris, vegetation, and sediment that can reduce water volume and quality. • Involve local communities in pond restoration efforts through participatory planning, awareness-raising campaigns, and capacity-building workshops on water conservation and sustainable land management practices. By providing early warnings and guidelines for managing water points and grazing areas, the system helps reduce the likelihood of conflicts over these shared resources. Timely alerts and data on water point conditions enable pastoralists to avoid resource hotspots during periods of 5.5. Climate risk and resource-based conflict management advisory service for anticipatory action The agro-advisory service module (see also Table 1) has been guiding pastoralists and agro- pastoralists mitigating and adapting the changes in water and pasture availability and build resilience against water-related risks. The advisory service has been providing guidance how, when and where to water and graze their livestock (Figure 11). This information is very crucial to 24 reduce resource- induced conflict. The mitigation strategies and action plan based on the waterpoints status can be summarized as follows: ✓ Pond X is in good status; you can continue using water as usual. ✓ Pond X is in watch status; it is recommended to conserve water as there is a high probability of water shortage. ✓ Pond X is in alert status; it is advised to seek alternative water sources for livestock and prioritize domestic water usage. ✓ Pond X is in dry status; it is recommended to search for other water sources. Ponds A, B, C, etc., are in good status, and our suggested route will guide you there. Figure 8. Flow chart indicating a water and pasture point monitoring system and information dissemination approach for resource-induced conflict management 6. Conclusion and implication 6.1. Conclusion The Anticipatory Alerts and Advisory Services provide a vital tool for enhancing resilience and peacebuilding in pastoralist communities facing challenges related to water scarcity, forage availability, and resource competition. By offering real-time, data-driven insights on where, when, Monitor and forecast water and pasture availability Near real time water and pasture availability information Warning System, and Agro-climate and Resource- Induced Conflict Management Advisory Service Make informed decision making (where and when to water and graze livestock) Reduce or avoid contact and use resources in a sustainable manner Reduce or avoid conflict 25 and how to manage grazing and watering practices, the system empowers pastoralists to make informed decisions that reduce the risk of conflicts over shared resources. The integration of early warning systems, data-driven mediation, and crisis response planning ensures that pastoralists can proactively adapt to changing environmental conditions, thus safeguarding livelihoods and fostering social cohesion. Furthermore, the advisory services promote sustainable resource management and peacebuilding efforts, enabling local governments, elders, and rangeland managers to coordinate effectively and harmonize the use of critical resources. Ultimately, this comprehensive approach contributes to greater climate resilience, reduces the likelihood of resource-induced conflicts, and strengthens the ability of communities to cope with climate variability and other shocks. By empowering pastoralists and local stakeholders with actionable information, the Anticipatory Alerts and Advisory Services play a critical role in securing the long-term sustainability and peace of pastoral systems. 6.2. Implication for conflict management The Anticipatory Alerts and Advisory Services have significant implications for conflict management, particularly in pastoral communities where resource scarcity, especially water and grazing land, is a common driver of tension and conflict. By providing timely, accurate, and actionable information on water availability, forage conditions, and migration routes, the system addresses key sources of friction and helps mitigate conflicts in several critical ways: • Proactive conflict prevention: The early warning system allows pastoralists to anticipate potential resource shortages and take preventive measures, such as altering grazing patterns or migrating earlier to alternative water and pasture sources. By receiving alerts about the status of waterpoints and forage conditions in advance, pastoralists can avoid sudden influxes of people and livestock into overstrained areas, reducing competition and the likelihood of clashes. • Data-driven mediation and decision-making: Empowering local authorities, elders, waterpoint managers, and rangeland managers with data-backed insights supports evidence-based decision-making. This enables these stakeholders to mediate conflicts effectively by providing clear, objective information about available resources, which can 26 facilitate peaceful negotiation and resource-sharing agreements among competing groups. By leveraging technology, these decision-makers can balance the needs of various communities and reduce tensions before they escalate into violence. • harmonized resource use: The system’s ability to monitor and share real-time data on water and grazing resources enhances coordination among pastoral communities. By promoting collaborative decision-making and fostering inter-community dialogue, the system reduces mistrust and competition, which are common precursors to conflict. The spatial mapping of water resources and grazing areas allows communities to respect agreed-upon boundaries and migration routes, minimizing disputes over resource access. • Timely humanitarian interventions: In cases where resource scarcity leads to crisis conditions, the advisory services provide timely information to local governments, humanitarian agencies, and development partners. This facilitates rapid response actions, such as emergency water trucking or the identification of alternative grazing areas. By addressing immediate needs during periods of stress, the system helps prevent the escalation of conflicts driven by desperation over scarce resources. • Sustainable grazing and watering practices: The system promotes sustainable resource management by guiding pastoralists on how to graze and water their livestock responsibly. Through targeted advice on resource use, pastoralists can avoid over-exploitation of resources, which can lead to long-term environmental degradation and exacerbate conflicts. By incorporating sustainable practices, pastoralists not only ensure their livelihoods but also contribute to the broader goal of peacebuilding and environmental conservation. • Conflict-sensitive climate adaptation: The integration of climate and resource-induced conflict management within the advisory services ensures that pastoralists’ adaptation strategies are aligned with the need for peace. By considering both environmental and social factors, the system helps prevent situations where competition for resources leads to violent confrontations. It supports a holistic approach to conflict management that incorporates climate resilience, sustainable development, and peacebuilding efforts. In summary, the Anticipatory Alerts and Advisory Services play a crucial role in conflict management by reducing the risks of resource-related disputes, fostering cooperation among 27 communities, and providing timely, actionable information to avoid or mitigate conflict. By addressing both the immediate and long-term drivers of conflict, this system enhances peace and stability in pastoralist regions, contributing to a more sustainable and peaceful coexistence for all stakeholders involved.