Kenya County Climate Risk Profile Series Kenya County Climate Risk Profile: Nyamira County Highlights Nyamira County is located in the Lake Victoria region of Kenya (Figure 1). It has a tri-modal rainfall pattern which is well-distributed, reliable, and adequate for a wide range of crops. Agriculture plays a key role in the socioeconomic development of Nyamira County. It provides a source of livelihood for 90% of the county’s population. Despite agriculture’s significance in Nyamira County, poverty levels are still high, with over 46% of the population living below poverty line, as compared to the poverty level of 48% in the Lake Victoria region and the national poverty level of approximately 46%. Recently, climate variability and change have manifested in Nyamira County in the form of unpredictable, delayed, and extreme rainfall, increased temperatures, and dry spells. This study identified dry spells, extreme rainfall, heat stress, and strong winds as the most common climate hazards in Nyamira County. These hazards affect key agricultural value chain commodities across the county. Nyamira County is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture, rendering it vulnerable to climate change, continuous food insecurity, poverty, and malnutrition. In response to the changing climate, farmers have adopted several on-farm adaptation strategies. These strategies impact both crop and livestock production. Several organizations are also supporting farmers through the provision of off-farm services. Effective climate risk management in Nyamira County is impeded by inadequate funding, policy and governance structures, inadequate human resource capacity, limited political will, and poor coordination and collaboration among relevant actors and stakeholders. Figure 1: Map of Nyamira County Republic of Kenya CONTENTS Highlights ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Table of Contents ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 List of Figures -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 List of Tables ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 List of Acronyms ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Foreword -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 1. Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 2. County Context -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 2.1 Economic Relevance of Farming ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 2.2 People and Livelihoods -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 2.3 Agricultural Activities --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 2.4 Agricultural Value Chain Commodities ------------------------------------------------------------- 12 2.4.1 Bananas ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 2.4.2 Local Chickens ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 2.4.3 Dairy Cows --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 2.4.4 Indigenous Vegetables: African Nightshade and Spider Plant ---------------------------- 13 2.5 Challenges to the Agricultural Sector ---------------------------------------------------------------- 15 3. Climate Change and Agriculture-Related Risks and Vulnerabilities --------------------------- 16 3.1 Climate Change and Variability: Historic and Future Trends ------------------------------------ 16 3.2 The Climate from Farmers´ Perspectives ----------------------------------------------------------- 22 3.3 Climate Vulnerabilities across Agricultural Value Chain Commodities ------------------------ 22 3.3.1 Bananas ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 3.3.2 Local Chickens ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 3.3.3 Dairy Cows --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 3.3.4 Indigenous Vegetables: African Nightshade and Spider Plant ---------------------------- 24 4. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability ------------------------------------------------------ 24 4.1 Factors Determining Future Vulnerability and Climate Change Impacts ---------------------- 24 4.2. Options to Adapt to Climate Change ---------------------------------------------------------------- 24 4.2.1 Ongoing Adaptation Practices ----------------------------------------------------------------- 24 4.2.2 Potential Adaptation Practices ----------------------------------------------------------------- 26 5. Policies and Strategies on Climate Change ------------------------------------------------------------ 31 6. Institutional Capacity for Climate Change ----------------------------------------------------------- 33 7. Synthesis and Outlook ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 36 8. Works Cited ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37 9. Acknowledgements --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 38 10. Annexes ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 10.1 Glossary ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 39 2 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series List of Figures Figure 1: Map of Nyamira County ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Figure 2: Methodology for developing the profile -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------7 Figure 3: Agriculture and livelihoods in Nyamira County -------------------------------------------------------------------------10 Figure 4: Map of agroecological zones in Nyamira County -----------------------------------------------------------------------11 Figure 5: Characterization of Selected Agricultural Value Chains in Nyamira County --------------------------------------14 Figure 6: Elevation (left), historical annual mean precipitation in mm (center), and historical annual mean temperature in °C (right) for Nyamira County for the long rainy season -----------------------------------18 Figure 7: Historical monthly mean temperature and precipitation in the last 30 years in Nyamira County. The first long rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from January to June, while the second, the short rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from July to December. Bars represent total monthly precipitation, whereas red and blue lines represent maximum and minimum monthly mean temperatures, respectively. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------18 Figure 8: Annual total rainfall trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) -------------------------------------------------------------------------19 Figure 9: Annual mean temperature trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) -------------------------------------------------------------------------19 Figure 10: The 95th percentile of daily precipitation in mm for the short rainy season : historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) -------------------------------------------------------------20 Figure 11: Average number of consecutive dry days for the long rainy season: historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) -------------------------------------------------------------21 Figure 12: Climate variabilities and adaptation strategies across selected value chains in Nyamira County ----------30 List of Tables Table 1: Policies and programs relevant to climate change adaptation in Nyamira County -------------------------------31 Table 2: List of institutions that support the implementation of agricultural interventions in Nyamira County --------33 Nyamira County 3 List of Acronyms AEZs Agroecological Zones AI Artificial insemination AR5 Fifth Assessment Report ASDSP Agriculture Sector Development Support Programme ATC Agriculture Training Centre CIAT International Centre for Tropical Agriculture CIDP County Integrated Development Program CIGs Common Interest Groups CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CSA Climate-smart Agriculture FM Frequency modulation GAPs Good Agriculture Practices GoK Government of Kenya IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPM Integrated pest management JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency Nyamira JJAS June-July-August-September KALRO Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization KCSAS Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture Strategy KDB Kenya Dairy Board KIPPRA Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis KMD Kenya Meteorological Department KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics KSh Kenyan shilling 4 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series MAM March-April-May NARIGP National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project NCCAP National Climate Change Action Plan NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy New KCC New Kenya Cooperative Creameries NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations OND October-November-December SDCP Smallholder Dairy Commercialization Programme USAID United States Agency for International Development Nyamira County 5 Foreword The mandate of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives is to create an enabling environment for sustainable development of agriculture and co-operatives for economic development. This objective underpins our desire and commitment to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and secure environment as envisaged in our development blueprints, the Kenya Vision 2030, the Big Four Agenda and the Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy (ASTSG 2019 – 2029). The sector remains high on the national development agenda in terms of food and nutrition security, income generation, employment creation, saving and investment mobilization and export earnings. To realize the country’s aspirations of food and nutrition security, the Government through this Ministry is implementing the National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP) with the support of the World Bank. The development objective of the project is to increase the agricultural productivity and profitability of targeted rural communities in 21 counties and in the event of an eligible crisis or emergency, provide an immediate and effective response. The agriculture sector is however, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events. Responses that would enable the country to cope with these risks are outlined in the Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Strategy and in the commitments of the Kenya Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In 2010, the Government developed the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) which recognized the impacts of climate change on the country’s development. This was followed by the development of the National Climate Change Action Plan in 2012. The focus of these initiatives include the development of county-level climate risk profiles to mainstream climate change perspectives in programs and development plans at county level. The Ministry has developed county climate risk profiles in 31 counties and NARIGP is supporting the development of profiles for an additional 14 counties. The purpose of the profiles is to inform county governments and stakeholders on the climate change risks and provide opportunities for integration into respective county development plans and processes. This climate risk profiles study will be used as a basis to climate proof projects or any other developments in fourteen counties (Samburu, Turkana, Kitui, Narok, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Muranga, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Vihiga, Kisii, Nyamira and Migori). The study provides information on current and possible future climate scenarios, climate-related vulnerabilities and risks for key major agricultural value chains, policy landscape and the institutional capacity to deliver adaptation programs. Each profile presents adaptation and risk reduction options that can transform and reorient agricultural systems in the counties to increase productivity, enhance smallholder farmers’ resilience and mitigate against climate change. Finally, I call upon all stakeholders for their cooperation and support for adoption of CSA production practices that maximize the triple wins: increases productivity, enhanced resilience and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Through the adoption of new technologies and improved practices, we will realize the desired goal of Kenya being a food and nutrition secure country, fostering socio-economic development and improved livelihoods of Kenyans. Prof. Hamadi I. Boga, PhD, CBS Principal Secretary State Department for Crops Development and Agricultural Research 6 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 1. Introduction (GoK) is implementing the National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP) with support Climate change is becoming one of the most serious from the World Bank. The project objective is to challenges to Kenya. The country is susceptible to increase agricultural productivity and the profitability climate-related events, and projections indicate that of targeted rural communities in selected counties. To climate impacts will continue to affect Kenya in the address the climate change risks and vulnerabilities that future. In many areas, extreme and variable weather is negatively impacts agricultural production, the Alliance now the norm. Rainfall is irregular and unpredictable; of Bioversity International and the International Center some regions experience frequent droughts during for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) was engaged to do a the long rainy season or severe floods during the climate risk assessment. The aim of the assessment is short rains. Arid and semi-arid areas are particularly to provide information about the current climate and vulnerable to these extreme changes, putting the lives about possible future climate scenarios, to pinpoint and socioeconomic activities of millions of households climate-related vulnerabilities and risks for major at risk. agricultural value chains and specific groups of people involved in agriculture, to identify adaptation options that address climate risks and vulnerabilities, and to The Kenya Vision 2030 is a national blueprint that assess the institutional capacity to deliver adaptation seeks to transform Kenya into a newly middle-income programs. country that provides a high quality of life to all its citizens by 2030 in a clean and secure environment. The agricultural sector is a crucial contributor to This climate risk profile seeks to inform county the projected annual national economic growth. governments and stakeholders about the climate However, it faces constraints such as inadequate change risks and opportunities for agriculture. access to quality inputs, marketing inefficiencies, a This report will therefore help county governments non-conducive investment environment, declining soil and stakeholders integrate climate change risks fertility, low mechanization, land fragmentation, and and opportunities for local agriculture into county most significantly, climate change. development plans. In 2010, Kenya developed a National Climate Change The Alliance implemented the assessment through a Response Strategy (NCCRS) which recognized set of interrelated stages (Figure 1). It first initiated a the importance of climate change impacts on the desk review of the conceptual and analytical context country’s development. This strategy was followed of climate change risks at the national and county in 2012 by the National Climate Change Action Plan levels. An effort was made to involve a wide range of (NCCAP), which provided a means for implementing institutions that have worked on climate change at the NCCRS and highlighted agricultural adaptation the national and regional levels. The team drew from priorities. These initiatives are focused on the national globally available data sources like the Kenya Open level, and climate change considerations still need to Data Portal, from county development plans, and from be mainstreamed in county-level policies, programs, relevant government departments like the Department and development plans. Locally relevant, integrated of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing, the Kenya adaptation responses with active involvement of local Meteorological Department (KMD), and the Drought stakeholders are necessary to achieve this goal. Monitoring Center. This assignment also collected data through focus group discussions, interviews with carefully selected key informants, observation, climate Through the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, modeling, and three days of sub-national stakeholder Fisheries and Cooperatives, the Government of Kenya workshops. The final report was then presented and validated by national and county-level stakeholders. Development of Data Collection 3 Days Stakeholders Report and Validation Methods Workshop in Each County ■ Literature Review ■ Validation of Priority Vcs and ■ ■ Report DratingMethods and Context Collected Statistics Socioeconomic Context Coordination ■ ■ Presentation of Historic Climate ■ Review (Internal and External) Focus Group Discussions and and Future Projected Changes ■ Validation of the Methods Key Informant Interviews ■ Validation Workshop With National and County by National and County ■ Identification of Key Risks ■ Climate Change and Impact Underlying Vulnerability Factors, Stakeholders Stakeholders and New Potential Adaptation Modelling Options ■ Assesment of Institutions and County Level Organizations Capacity to Deliver Adaptation Programs Figure 2: Methodology for developing the profile Nyamira County 7 This document presents the climate risk profile for broilers; rabbits; and bees. Nile tilapia and African Nyamira County. It is organized into six main sections, catfish are the main fish farmed. each reflecting an essential analytical step towards understanding current and potential adaptation options Agriculture furnishes a significant portion of household for key local agricultural value chain commodities. The income in Nyamira County, with crop-related activities document first offers an overview of the agricultural generating the majority of the income. County commodities key to food security and livelihoods in households earn an average of 79,123 Kenyan shillings Nyamira County, and then lists major challenges to (KSh) per year, with crop-related activities contributing agricultural sector development in Nyamira. In the the largest portion of this income (ASDSP, 2014). second section, it identifies major climate hazards Female-headed households earn an average KSh based on an analysis of historical climate data and 86,962 per year from on-farm activities, compared climate projections. These projections include to KSh 85,005 for male-headed households, and scientific assessments of such climate indicators as KSh 46,098 for youth-headed households. Female- dry spells, extreme rainfall, moisture stress, and heat headed households earn a majority (almost 79%) of stress. Thirdly, the report continues with an exploration their income from crops, as compared to male- and of the vulnerabilities and risks posed by these climactic youth-headed households, which earn approximately hazards to the respective value chains. Based on these 72% and 55% of their income from crops, respectively. vulnerabilities, the fourth section discusses current and potential on-farm adaptation options and off-farm services. In the fifth section, the report also provides 2.2 People and Livelihoods snapshots of the enabling policy, institutional, and governance contexts for the adoption of resilience- Nyamira County has a population of 605,576, with building strategies. Finally, the sixth section presents a male population of 290,907 (48%) and a female pathways for strengthening institutional capacity to population of 314,656 (52%). The population address climate risks. density is 675 people per km2. The total number of households in Nyamira County is 150,669, with an average household size of 4 people (KNBS, 2019). The 2. County Context urban population constitutes about 7.8% of the total, including 22,666 males and 24,370 females. The rural Nyamira County is located in the Lake Victoria region population is larger, comprising about 92% of the total of Kenya. It is adjacent to Homa Bay County to the population, with 268,241 males and 290,286 females north, Kisii County to the west, Bomet County to the (Figure 2). southeast, and Kericho County to the east. Nyamira County lies between latitudes of 00030’ North and About 46% of the population lives in absolute poverty, 00045’ South, and between longitudes of 34045’ as compared to 48% in the Lake Region and 46% West and 35000’ East. The county’s topography is nationwide (KNBS, 2016). Additionally, 50% percent mostly hilly, called the “gusii highlands”. The most of the population live below the poverty line (US$1.90 predominant geographical features include the Manga a day) .The Lake Region Economic Bloc is made up Ridge and the Kiabonyoru, Nyabisimba, Nkoora, and of Bungoma, Busia, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kisii, Kemasare hills. Nyamira County stands at altitudes Kisumu, Migori, Nyamira, Siaya, Vihiga, Bomet, Trans between 1,250 m and 2,100 m above sea level. Its Nzoia, and Kericho Counties (County Government elevation is conducive to growing tea, an important of Nyamira , 2018). Roughly 13% of the urban cash crop and source of income for farmers in the population lives in poverty, against 46% of the rural county. population. The major causes of poverty in Nyamira County include small land plots, poor crop and animal 2.1 Economic Relevance of Farming husbandry practices, inadequate safe and clean drinking water, low educational standards, and a high prevalence of disease. About 50% of households in the Agriculture is Nyamira County’s economic backbone. county had access to electricity for lighting, and 0.2% About 90% of the county’s population depends on had electricity for cooking; around 59% had access to agricultural production and marketing, either directly potable water (County Government of Nyamira, 2018). or indirectly. Agriculture plays a key role in food security, poverty reduction, and job creation in Nyamira County. Agriculture constitutes a source of income, food, and The county’s agricultural practices include farming employment for Nyamira County, both directly and of both food and cash crops, livestock farming, indirectly. A majority (74%) of the adults are engaged bee keeping, and fish farming. Its major food crops in crop and/or livestock farming, while 8% have formal include maize, beans, finger millet, sorghum, cassava, salaried employment as public servants, private-sector sweet potatoes, vegetables, and fruits. Its major cash employees, non-farming laborers, and domestic crops include tea, coffee, pyrethrum, avocados, and workers. About 11% are self-employed in agriculture- bananas. In terms of animals, farmers mainly raise related business and trade activities, 4% depend on a cattle for dairy and beef; goats; pigs; sheep; donkeys; pension scheme, and 3% rely on other occupations poultry including indigenous chickens, layers, and (GoK, 2014). Several types of businesses operate 8 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series in Nyamira County, employing many people (GoK, About 36% of the population are suffering from food 2018). The annual average income from business is poverty, with 9.6% and 25.5% of children wasted and KSh 120,943, with male-headed households earning stunted respectively (Figure 3). About 7.6% of the KSh 159,104, compared to female- and youth-headed population are hardcore poor, meaning that even after households, which bring in KSh 126,000 and KSh spending all of their income on food, they still cannot 120,943, respectively (GoK, 2014). meet their basic food requirements (KNBS, 2016). Food and nutrition security can be measured by considering Agriculture is a major source of income, food, and food production, post-harvest losses, household size, employment for Nyamira County, both directly and food availability in terms of the number of meals per indirectly. A majority (74%) of the adults are engaged day, and seasonality in the food supply (ASDSP, 2014). in crop and/or livestock farming, while 8% have formal Within a period of one week, 42% of female-headed salaried employment as public servants, private-sector households experienced low food availability, compared employees, non-farming laborers, and domestic to 41% of male-headed households and 30% of youth- workers. About 11% are self-employed in agriculture- headed households. Overall, 55% of households do not related business and trade activities, 4% depend on a have enough food to meet their dietary needs. At least pension scheme, and 3% rely on other occupations 55% of adult male-headed households, 59% of adult (ASDSP, 2014). Several types of businesses operate female-headed households, and 55% of youth-headed in Nyamira County, employing many people (County households fall short of sufficient food to meet their Government of Nyamira, 2018). The annual average needs during the year (ASDSP, 2014). Seasonality in income from business is KSh 120,943, with male- food production also influences food security. Nyamira headed households earning KSh 159,104, compared County experiences two distinct peaks of food scarcity: to female- and youth-headed households, which one during the months of October and November, and bring in KSh 126,000 and KSh 120,943, respectively one from May to June (ASDSP, 2014). (ASDSP, 2014). Nyamira County 9 Livelihoods and agriculture in Kisii Farming Demographics County’s farming area 1.27% 288,078 haOf Kenya’s population 95% 605,576 inhabitants 80% of the population employed inagriculture production 92.23% 92% of farmers have title deeds 52% 48% Live in rural areas Access to basic needs 46% of the population livesin absolute poverty Potable water 59% Electricity for cooking 0.2% NYAMIRA Electricity for lighting 49.5% Food security 36% of the population Fertilizer types (% of households)suffers from food poverty 22% Organic manure 25.5% Children stunted NPH 22% Planting fertilizer 22% Top dress fertilizer 9.6% Children wasted Pesticide types (% of households) 6.2% Field pesticides Infographic based on data from the County Integrated Development 6.2% Storage pesticides Plan (GoK, 2013-2017), the Agricultural Sector Development Support Program (GoK, 2017), and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS, 2019) 6.2% Herbicide Figure 3: Agriculture and livelihoods in Nyamira County 10 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 2.3 Agricultural Activities Nyamira County’s total area is 899.4 km2, out of which 818 km2 or 91% is considered arable and 40.5 km2 or 4.5% is non-arable. Just 2 km2 or 0.2% of the county’s area is water, while the remaining 38.9 km2 or 4.3% is urban (KNBS, 2015). The majority of the arable land is used for agriculture. The average farm size is 0.7 acres for a small-scale farm and 10 acres for a large-scale farm. As regards land use, 58,394 ha are dedicated to food crops and 48,543 ha to cash crops. These numbers have remained relatively constant. Nyamira County is divided into two major agroecological zones (AEZs). The lower highland (LH1 and LH2) covers 82% of the county, while the upper midland zone (UM1, UM2, and UM3) encompasses the remaining 18% (Figure 4). Nyamira County has two rainy seasons (long and short rains)long rains start inFebruary and end in June or July, while the short rains start from August and end December. The highest peak of precipitation occurs during the MAM “long rains” season. Nyamira County records the highest amount of rainfall in Kenya. The rainfall is well- distributed, reliable, and adequate for a wide range of crops. The average annual rainfall in the county is 1600 mm, with the annual rainfall ranging between 1200 and 2100 mm. The maximum daytime temperature is 28.70C and the minimum nighttime temperature is Figure 4: Map of agroecological zones in Nyamira County 10.10C, resulting in an average temperature of 19.40C - favorable for both crop and livestock farming. Nyamira County’s agricultural production is mostly rain-fed, which leads to fluctuation and seasonality More than 70% of the land in Nyamira County is in food production. Irrigation is limited, with only freehold. Approximately 72% of land parcels in the ten small irrigation schemes distributed across the county have title deeds, while the rest are in different county. Only 1.4% of county farmers practice irrigation stages of acquiring title deeds. Nyamira County has (ASDSP, 2014). Improved seed is mainly used for three main types of land holdings, of distinct sizes, maize in season 1 and beans in season 2. Manure, in different sub-counties. They consist of large-scale, meanwhile, is widely used for maize, beans, finger medium-scale, and small-scale farmers. Medium- and millet, and sorghum. At least 60% of the farmers who large-scale farms account for a small percentage of grow perennial crops apply organic manure, while 37% the holdings but cover the largest area. Borabu Sub- use topdressing fertilizers (ASDSP, 2014). Foliar sprays County and some parts of Nyamira North Sub-County and pesticides are applied minimally, but at least 20% contain large parcels of land owned by multinational of Nyamira County’s farmers utilize field pesticides. companies for tea growing and processing as well Improved seed is also used for planting tea, coffee, and as for settlement schemes. The four remaining sub- multipurpose trees. Planting and topdressing fertilizer counties encompass smaller parcels of arable land. is mainly applied to grow bananas and tea. Manure use Manga Sub-County features the smallest farm area, is widespread for perennial crops like bananas, coffee, followed by Masaba North. Multinational farmers hold tea, and Napier grass. The county’s most common less than 10% of Nyamira County’s land. Individual, inputs in livestock production are acaricides for dipping large-scale farmers hold an average of 4 ha in Borabu or spraying, mineral supplements like salts, and de- Sub-County, whereas small-scale farmers hold an wormers, with some usage of artificial insemination average of 0.7 ha in other sub-counties. It is worth (AI), veterinary drugs, fodder, hay, and silage, and crop noting that the number of land holdings is increasing residue (ASDSP, 2014). fast, due to the continued subdivision of both small- and large-scale farm holdings (County Government of Zero-grazing dairy farming is gaining popularity in Nyamira, 2018). Nyamira County due to diminishing land availability, weather conditions, and a ready market for milk. Bee keeping or apiculture is also growing in popularity. Nyamira County 11 Nyamira County has promoted apiculture over the a regular supply of 200-220 mm of water per month. last five years, and as a result, farmers have recorded Temperature is a major factor in banana growth; the improved yields per hive. The county is not a major optimal temperature ranges from 28°C to 38°C. Below fish producer, but an uptake of fish rearing has been 13°C, the bananas’ growth is retarded, and they are recorded after government intervention through the vulnerable to chilling injuries. The plants can tolerate a Economic Stimulus Program in 2009 (ASDSP, 2014, pH of 4.5 to 7.5, but their ideal pH falls between 6 and County Government of Nyamira, 2013). It is estimated 7.5 (Mbwana et al., 1998). Nyamira County’s climate is that Nyamira County’s four constituencies have over well-matched to bananas’ needs. 1,722 operational fishponds (County Government of Nyamira, 2013). The banana value chain engages 81-100% of the county’s population. The main varieties grown in the 2.4 Agricultural Value Chain County include dessert, cooking, and dual cooking- Commodities and-dessert varieties. The cooking varieties include Ngombe, Nusu Ngombe, and Uganda Green, which is native to Kisii; the dessert varieties include Grand Naine, Among the diversity of agricultural commodities grown Williams, Chinese Cavendish, and Giant Cavendish; in Nyamira County, several are prioritized by the County and the dual varieties include FHIA 17 and FHIA Integrated Development Plan (CIDP), by development 18. Banana plantations are commonly established programs such as the NARIGP and the Agricultural with tissue culture planting materials. Tissue culture Sector Development Support Programme (ASDSP), plantlets technology, which is now available, offers and by government institutions such as the Kenya farmers healthy planting materials that are free of Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization disease and pests, have higher vigor and chances of (KALRO). For the development of this profile, a list survival, mature early, yield more, and involve well- of the major agricultural value chain commodities known fertilizer and manure application regimes. (VCCs) in the county was compiled using the following prioritization indicators: productivity characteristics, Input supply is done on a small scale within Nyamira including harvested area, production, and production County. Because it encourages quality production, variations in the past five years; economic value (KSh) the acquisition of clean, quality planting materials, and nutritional characteristics like dietary energy such as tissue culture banana plantlets, is considered consumption (Kcal/capita/day) and protein, iron, the most important part of input supply. The main zinc, and Vitamin A content. The list was presented suppliers of these plantlets are Aberdare Technologies to stakeholders during a 3-day workshop for in-depth Ltd., KALRO, and Kisii and Jomo Kenyatta University analysis and selection. The selection process was of Agriculture and Technology. Production and post- further refined by the following set of criteria which harvest processes also take place on a small scale, were determined with the stakeholders: resilience to while marketing occurs at medium-scale. Because land current and future climate change impacts, measured is a limited resource in Nyamira County, most farmers on a scale from low to high; the percentage of the grow bananas on a small scale, for subsistence. Post- county’s population involved in each value chain; and harvest processes are limited because of the high the involvement in their value chain of economically demand for fresh bananas, but small-scale processors and socially vulnerable groups such as poor people, such Hobanapo Cooperative Society Ltd. are adding women, and youths, on a scale from low to high. Each value in a modest capacity. Hobanapo Cooperative value chain was assessed against each criterion, and Society Ltd. has a processing facility for banana crisps, we chose the value chains that engage the highest flour, bread, and other bakery products, which fetch percentage of the population along with poor people, better prices than raw bananas in the market. Marketing women, and youths. The four VCCs which were is also limited because of poor market linkages and selected for this report are the banana, local chicken, inadequate organized collection and bulking centers. dairy, and indigenous vegetable value chains (Figure Most of the farmers, with few exceptions, sell their 4). banana in the local market and through middlemen (brokers). However, the middlemen have been 2.4.1 Bananas exploiting farmers by offering very low prices for their bananas. In Nyamira County, bananas comprise an important value chain. They are produced for subsistence and Men are most involved in the input supply and post- commercial purposes almost everywhere in the county. harvest stages of this value chain, while women are In 2013, the area under banana production was more engaged at the marketing and production estimated at 2,105 ha with a production of 31,575 tons stages. Nyamira County’s male youth population (15 tons/ha); by 2017, the total area under production participates strongly in the post-harvest stage, while was 2,259 ha, yielding a total production of 42,475 the female youth population is highly involved in tons of bananas (County Government of Nyamira, marketing. Although the female population takes part 2018). Bananas grow well in fairly hot and humid areas in this value chain, it is predominately men who control that lie within an altitude of 0 to 1800 m above sea the proceeds and make the key decisions relating level. They require rainfall of at least 1000 mm per year, to banana production (ASDSP, 2014). Their limited but in order to achieve good yields, they should receive decision-making power and differential access to 12 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series resources, compounded by social and cultural norms particularly tick-borne diseases. Conversely, the Zebu and beliefs, exacerbate women farmers’ vulnerability to breed has high resistance to diseases, but produces climate change hazards and also lessens their adaptive less milk. In order to encourage milk production in capacity. the Zebu breed, the Department of Livestock has promoted crossbreeding using AI. As a result, the dairy 2.4.2 Local Chickens cow population has increased from 121,502 in 2013 to 187,692 in 2017, with corresponding increases in milk Local chickens anchor another crucial value chain production from 47,887,650 L in 2013 to 66,321,000 in Nyamira County, which engages 61-80% of the L in 2017 (County Government of Nyamira, 2018). population. Almost every household, especially in rural areas, practices chicken farming. Small-scale farmers Women dominate this value chain; they are highly keep fewer than 100 chickens, but the majority of involved in its production, post-harvest, and marketing farmers are medium-scale with up to 600 chickens. stages. Men are intensely engaged in input supply, A few large-scale farmers keep up to 1,000 chickens. but least involved at the post-harvest and marketing This value chain is popular because the local chickens stages. Youths, meanwhile, participate strongly in the can tolerate a harsh climate, come with low production input supply, post-harvest, and marketing stages, and costs, and require less labor than exotic breeds. The are least involved at the production stage. Although chickens are kept mainly for meat and eggs; the local stakeholders in Nyamira County opined that youth market is the major outlet for these products. Input involvement at the production stage of the dairy value suppliers are involved on the small, medium, and large chain is limited, milk production was highest in youth- scales, while farmers, processors, wholesalers, and headed households during the dry season (ASDSP, retailers are involved on a small scale. The majority 2014). Among youth-headed households during the of farmers practice on-farm production on both small dry season, about 4.2 L of milk was recorded per local and medium scales due to limited market access cow per day, 5.6 L per crossbred cow per day, and 6.8 and finances. Processors are mostly small-scale L per exotic cow per day. Female-headed households because of inadequate processing skills, capacity measured 1.6 L per local cow per day, 4.5 L per building, storage, and processing facilities. Because crossbred cow per day, and 5.8 L per exotic cow per so few processers are involved, there is a low rate of day. During the wet season, youth-headed households value addition, limited to dressing, differentiation, produced the largest amounts of milk from crossbred and packing (ASDSP, 2014). Very few retailers and cows, while female-headed households recorded the wholesalers are involved in the value chain. most milk from exotic breeds (ASDSP, 2014). Female farmers, who are mostly involved in the on- Most of Nyamira County’s milk producers sell much farm production, post-harvest, and marketing stages, of their milk directly to local consumers. They sell to dominate this value chain. Men and male youths are neighbors, low-income urban dwellers, local vendors, mostly involved at the input supply stage, with low milk bars, nearby schools, and restaurants. A few participation in the on-farm production, post-harvest, farmers split their milk and sell part of it through dairy and marketing stages. Female youths are primarily cooperatives and producer groups, especially during engaged in the on-farm production stage of this value the rainy season when production volume increases chain, with low involvement at the input supply and (Auma, 2018). Few producers (15%) sell their milk post-harvest stages. Most decisions (61%) about to large-scale clients like private processors such as the chicken value chain are made by adult women, Highland Creameries, Brookside Creameries Ltd., whereas adult men make about 21% of decisions, and and the New Kenya Co-operative Creameries Ltd. youths make about 18% (ASDSP, 2014). (New KCC) (GoK, 2019). The producer-to-individual consumer channel accounts for 40% of milk sales in Nyamira County (Auma, 2018). The price varies with 2.4.3 Dairy Cows the marketing channel, season, volume, transport costs, and, in some cases, with time. About 85% of the In Nyamira County, the dairy cow value chain is also milk is consumed locally and is unprocessed (SDCP, significant. It involves 81-100 % of the population, and 2016). However, some value addition is performed at almost every household owns a dairy cow, especially in the household level -- mostly through fermentation rural areas. Common breeds include local, crossbred, which accounts for 57% of the value addition, and exotic cattle, such as Friesian, Ayrshire, Jersey, sometimes through cooling, making yogurt, flavoring Guernsey, and Zebu, a local breed. Zebu cows are and boiling which account for 14%, 2.3% 0.5% and hardy and are mainly kept in the marginalized lower 0.6% respectively (ASDSP, 2014). parts of the county, in the Nyamaiya, Bomwagamo, and Bokeira Wards. These areas are dry throughout most of the year and do not sustain fodder production 2.4.4 Indigenous Vegetables: African (County Government of Nyamira, 2018). Nightshade and Spider Plant Dairy production is mainly small-scale, with zero grazing Stakeholders reported that the indigenous vegetable due to reduced availability of land. The exotic breeds are value chain is vital in Nyamira County. Indigenous high milk producers, but overly vulnerable to disease, vegetables have value as a staple food and a commercial Nyamira County 13 product. Almost every household engages in vegetable are occasionally involved at the input supply stage. production, mostly through kitchen gardens, which Female youths are highly engaged in the on-farm consume little space. Indigenous vegetables are very production, post-harvest, and marketing stages, while resilient to climate change and can survive across male youths seldom take part. The stakeholders’ views Nyamira County’s wide range of climates and soil confirm findings from a baseline survey for Nyamira types. The most popular local vegetables are African county which showed that female farmers accounted nightshade (Solanum nigrum) and spider plant for majority of the indigenous vegetable producers-in (Cleome gynandra). Approximately 61-80% of the comparison to male and youth farmers (GoK, 2019). county population engages with this value chain. Input suppliers are involved on a small scale and Production primarily occurs through small-scale limited to agro-vets and retailers because most farmers cropping systems. Most farmers produce on less than in Nyamira County recycle their own seed and rely on ¼ of an acre. locally made farm inputs such as farmyard manure, compost, and organic pesticides (GoK, 2019). Farmers The indigenous vegetable value chain predominately have reported that organically produced indigenous involves female farmers who participate intensively vegetables are healthier, tastier, and have a longer shelf at all stages of the value chain – input supply, on- life (GoK, 2019). Indigenous vegetables are seldom farm production, post-harvest, and marketing. Men processed, although some farmers perform value Agricultural value chains in Nyamira Provision of On-Farm Harvesting Inputs Production Storage and Product Processing Marketing Service providers engaged in Value Chain % of people engaged in the value chain M S M S S M S 61-80% Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Chicken Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth (local) (men) (women) (men) (women) (men) (women) (men) (women)in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain S S S L 71-80 Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of:Vegetables % Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth (local) (men) (women) (men) (women) (men) (women) (men) (women) in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain M S M L M 81-100% Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Dairy Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth (cow) (men) (women) (men) (women) (men) (women) (men) (women)in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain S S S M 81-100% Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Bananas Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth Men Women Youth Youth (men) (women) (men) (women) (men) (women) (men) (women) in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain Conventions Service Providers: Suppliers Farmers Processors Wholesalers/ retailers S small-scale M medium-scale L large-scale ND: No data 5 Importance of women, 4 youth men and women: 3 1 = very low; 2 = low; 3 = medium; 4 = high; 5 = very high; 0 =non-exsistant; N/D = no data.2 1 Figure 5: Characterization of Selected Agricultural Value Chains in Nyamira County 14 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series addition, such as solar drying in order to preserve Nyamira County’s low use of agricultural farm inputs vegetables for the dry season. Effective processing like pesticides, certified seed, and fertilizers, and of is limited by a dearth of technology; also, due to the services like AI, credit, extension, and farm inputs, low volumes of vegetables produced, most indigenous constitutes a serious hindrance to its agricultural vegetables are consumed within households or sold production (ASDSP, 2014). Livestock production locally through retail market outlets. inputs are minimal in Nyamira County in part because of high prices. The dairy value chain is affected when 2.5 Challenges to the Agricultural Sector veterinary services are delayed, because this problem in turn can hinder and in some cases preclude effective vaccinations against such diseases as foot and mouth Despite agriculture’s economic prominence in disease, lumpy skin disease, and anthrax. Use of Nyamira County, it is dogged by many challenges. Pest crop production inputs is minimal due to high prices and diseases are a threat to agricultural production. and the distance between farms and markets. Most At least 41% of farmers have experienced some form households (59%) cannot fully access recommended of new insect pests or diseases (ASDSP, 2014). These farm inputs such as improved seed, planting fertilizer, new pests include the fall armyworm; the Maize Lethal and topdressing fertilizer. The reduced inputs results Necrotic Disease, which mostly damages maize; and in reduced production and decreased economic Tuta absoluta, which affects tomatoes. In addition, competitiveness (ASDSP, 2014). post-harvest pests account for 50% of crop losses (GoK, 2019). Diseases have also long been a menace Nyamira County has huge irrigation potential, yet just to livestock because Nyamira County’s veterinary ten small irrigation schemes are distributed across services are understaffed and under-serviced with the county. Only 1.4% of farmers practice irrigation drugs and vaccines. Common livestock pests such farming. Nyamira County thus depends mainly on as ecto-parasites and endo-parasites remain a major rain-fed agriculture, which increases the farmers’ challenge. vulnerability to climate changes and other risks that result in fluctuation and seasonality in food production Recently, Nyamira County has faced challenges that (County Government of Nyamira, 2018). are associated with climate variability and change. These include delayed and unpredictable rains and the The county’s agricultural education system is untimely cessations of seasonal rains, which impact characterized by diverse and uncoordinated sources the timing of key activities like land preparation, of information and extension providers. Agricultural planting, and harvesting. Other challenges include extension, training, and research services are still skewed rainfall distribution and intensity, occasional minimal due to inadequate expertise, limited funding, hailstorms, extremely high rainfall that leads to soil and poor coordination and collaboration among erosion and flood risks, and occasional storms during institutions. the flowering and harvesting stage, which affects crops such as beans (ASDSP, 2014). Weak, poor, and inadequate farmers’ organizations, associations, and cooperative societies are a major Lately, Nyamira County has also experienced a high obstacle to agricultural marketing in Nyamira County. rate of land subdivisions, which has compromised This situation deprives farmers of the bargaining farmers’ ability to adequately engage in sustainable power to facilitate efficient marketing. As a result, farming activities and maintain their livelihoods. A lack farmers sell their produce individually, which exposes of sufficient land and fodder poses a major challenge them to exploitation by middlemen. The cooperatives to dairy farmers. For example, feed conservation, that do exist are less attractive to farmers because especially silage, is limited in Nyamira County because they pay lower prices in order to cover their operation it requires an abundance of fodder. Farmers are unable costs. If farmers are encouraged to organize, they may to produce sufficient quantities of fodder for silage gain access to agricultural services and explore better conservation (KIPPRA, 2017). markets for their produce. The county engages in unsustainable natural resource Nyamira County’s inadequacy of policy, coupled with a management, which compromises agricultural weak and inadequate institutional structures, hampers productivity. The most prevalent consequence of this its agricultural production and marketing. The county situation is soil degradation, followed by water volume has limited regulation and certification to ensure the reduction, the drying of wells and rivers, and the quality and availability of inputs. Farmers have reported disappearance of some indigenous plants and animals ineffective AI services that do not always produce (ASDSP, 2014). Nyamira County’s environmental the right breeds (County Government of Nyamira, degradation is compounded by unsustainable farming 2018). The lack of agricultural marketing regulation practices such as the improper use of inputs; the has led to insufficient markets and the exploitation of cultivation of land up to riverbanks, resulting in surface farmers by middlemen. The county’s values chains soil erosion; improper disposal of solid waste; massive are also impeded from reaching their full potential by tree felling for firewood and timber and to clear land; political influence and interference, and inadequate and agro-chemical pollution. These practices are implementation of government initiatives and support. linked to farmers’ limited skills and inadequate access to agricultural extension and training services. Nyamira County 15 Low investment in necessary infrastructure, along by the number of consecutive days in each season with poorly organized and institutionalized marketing when the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration strategies, hinders Nyamira County’s agricultural fell below 0.5. For each pixel, we calculated this value sector’s growth. Poor road infrastructure and per season per year by evaluating the soil’s water networks, especially in rural areas, complicate the capacity and evapotranspiration in order to define the transportation of highly perishable produce. Limited number of days that met the requirements for drought access to modern technologies and facilities slow stress. the value chains’ development and growth. Nyamira County lacks modern chilling, storing, and processing We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) facilities for the dairy value chain, proper packaging 8.5, one of the four greenhouse gas concentration and transportation equipment for the banana value trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel chain, and suitable storage and processing facilities on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment for the chicken value chain. These challenges result in Report (AR5) in 2014. Future climate projections were huge post-harvest losses and products that fetch poor generated based on an ensemble of multiple Coupled prices at the farm level. Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models (Taylor et al., 2012), using RCP 8.5 for two 3. Climate Change and future periods, namely 2030 and 2050. 1 Agriculture-Related Risks and 3.1 Climate Change and Variability: Vulnerabilities Historic and Future Trends To assess climate change and variability in Nyamira Temperatures in Nyamira County vary between 15oC County, in this profile we analyzed past trends and and 30°C (Figure 6 and 7). The county experiences future projections pertaining to precipitation- and two growing seasons: a long rainy season between temperature-related hazards, such as extreme February and June and a short rainy season between hydrological events including flash floods, droughts, August and December. It sees relative dry spells with moisture stress, heat stress, and the start and length of less than 100 mm of rainfall between January and the growing seasons. We defined the growing season February and in August. The month of April has the as follows: the first, long rainy season is the 100-day highest rainfall, around 250 mm. The average annual wettest period from January to June, while the second precipitation in Nyamira County falls between 1400 season, short rainy season is the 100-day wettest and 2000 mm. Its western region receives an average period from July to December (KMD, 2020). annual precipitation of more than 1800 mm. The annual average temperature falls between 19°C and To assess droughts and dry spells, we focused on 25°C. Historically, the annual average rainfall and the maximum number of consecutive dry days temperature display a directional spatial trend, with (CDD), defined as days with rainfall totaling less than less rainfall in the south. 1mm (precipitation < 1 mm day-1). Heat stress was determined by measuring the total number of days with The annual total rainfall did not significantly change for maximum temperatures greater than or equal to 35oC the period 1985-2015 for the long rainy season. It is (NT35). We discerned the start of the growing season however expected to decrease significantly up to 2040. by the occurrence of 5 consecutive growing days, while The total annual rainfall was increasing and is expected the length of the growing period (LGP) refers to the to increase for the short rainy season (Figure 8). The total number of growing days. Growing days are the annual mean temperature trends show an increase for days during a season when average temperatures are both season and this is expected to continue in the greater than or equal to 5oC and precipitation exceeds future (Figure 9). half the potential evapotranspiration. During the first rainy season, most of Nyamira County For each season, heavy precipitation events were has historically experienced 10 or fewer CDDs. During captured with a 5-day running average of rainfall, the second rainy season, most of Nyamira County indicative of floods, and the 95th percentile of daily has historically experienced fewer than 14 CDDs. The precipitation, indicative of extremely high rainfall over number of CDDs serves as an effective measure of a short period of time that can lead to events like extremely low precipitation and seasonal droughts. flash floods. For each pixel, we calculated the 95th During the first rainy season, the regions of Nyamira percentile of daily precipitation distribution based on County that record higher precipitation have historically the 100 wettest days per season per year. been more prone to 95th percentile rainfall intensity . The 95th percentile of daily precipitation for a season To assess the degree of adequacy of rainfall and soil serves as an indicator of heavy rainfall or very wet days, moisture to meet the potential water requirements for and is linked with erosion risk. Estimated based on agriculture, we focused on drought stress, represented when the climatic conditions become suitable for crop 1 For historical precipitation and temperature trends, we used the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS). For future climate projections we used an ensemble of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012, Navarro-Racines et al 2020), specifically the MOHC_HADGEM2_ES, CESM1_CAM5, GFDL_CM3, MPI_ESM_LR, and MIROC_MIROC5 models. 16 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series growth, the start of the growing season in Nyamira During the second rainy season, Nyamira County will County occurs in February, with some variability. likely experience a decrease of 1 or 2 CDDs, suggesting Temperatures greater than or equal to 35°C (NT35), a relatively unchanged pattern. Future projections also an indicator of heat stress, have never occurred during indicate that the 95th percentile intensity will remain the first rainy season. about the same and follow the same spatial patterns as always, with an average change of 2 mm or less. Nyamira County’s LGP during the long rainy season, There will be a general increase by 5 mm or more in the period when the climatic conditions are suitable the 95th percentile intensity during the second season for crop growth, has always lasted around five months. (Figure 10). Projections suggest that the first growing Comparison of historical and future trends indicates season will start a week or more earlier across most that moisture stress has been increasing significantly of the county, while the second growing season will in the past across the county by up to 2 weeks but be delayed by 2 - 3 months. Farmers will therefore in the future there will be a significant decrease in experience a shorter overall growing season. Climate moisture stress of up to three weeks throughout advisory services will become critical to inform farmers Nyamira County. Moisture stress serves as an indicator about the optimum planting window. Research and of the available soil moisture for plants. Higher values extension services will also play a crucial role in advising of moisture stress negatively affect the vegetative farmers about appropriate crop varieties that can growth of crops during the growing season. thrive in the new, briefer growing season. During the first growing season, the LGP is expected to shorten Future projections indicate that during the long by up to two months. The second growing season is rainy season, Nyamira County will witness an overall projected to shorten by 1 - 3 months. Quick-maturing increase of up to five CDDs (Figure 11). This suggests crop varieties will help farmers adapt to these changes. a marginal increase in the occurrence of drought. Climate advisory services will also be important to alert farmers to the earliest possible planting opportunities. Nyamira County 17 Figure 6: Elevation (left), historical annual mean precipitation in mm (center), and historical annual mean temperature in °C (right) for Nyamira County for the long rainy season ‘Long rainy season’ ‘Short rainy season’ Figure 7: Historical monthly mean temperature and precipitation in the last 30 years in Nyamira County. The first long rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from January to June, while the second, the short rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from July to December. Bars represent total monthly precipitation, whereas red and blue lines represent maximum and minimum monthly mean temperatures, respectively. 18 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Figure 8: Annual total rainfall trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) Figure 9: Annual mean temperature trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) Nyamira County 19 Figure 10: The 95th percentile of daily precipitation in mm for the short rainy season : historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) 20 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Figure 11: Average number of consecutive dry days for the long rainy season: historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) Nyamira County 21 3.2 The Climate from Farmers´ 3.3 Climate Vulnerabilities across Perspectives Agricultural Value Chain Commodities Climate variability is a reality in Nyamira County, and farmers have reported a myriad of manifestations. As previously discussed, Nyamira County suffers from The majority of both male-headed (93%) and female- a number of climate-change related hazards. The most headed households (97%) have noticed long-term problematic hazards are dry spells, strong winds, heat environmental changes in average temperatures stress, and extreme rainfall. These hazards affect each and rainfall during the last 20 years (ASDSP, 2014). value chain differently, as described below. These changes include unpredictable rainfall patterns characterized by unevenness and inconsistency in rainfall distribution. Farmers also reported an increase 3.3.1 Bananas in seasonal rainfall variability, including delays or shifts in the onset and/or cessation of seasonal rainfall. The banana value chain in Nyamira is most affected This variability has affected the timing of key farming by dry spells and strong winds. Dry spells impact activities like land preparation and planting, which all stages of banana production. They pose a major has resulted in poor harvests. Farmers stated that threat to the water supply, with consequences for the extreme rainfall has increased and that 2020 has been growth and development of tissue cultures that can characterized by continuous, heavier-than-normal lead in turn to low production and a limited supply of rains. This extreme rainfall has occasionally been bananas. Bananas are not planted during dry spells, accompanied by hailstones, which damage crops like which results in a lower income for the farmers and vegetables, bananas, beans, coffee, and passion fruits. agro-dealers who supply manure and fertilizer. The excess rains have led to low banana production due to prolonged maturity and blockage of planting holes, Dry spells have a major-to-severe impact on banana which has hindered manure application. The extreme production. They cause seedlings to die and necessitate rains have led to soil erosion, which has resulted in the supplementary irrigation, which increases costs and siltation of tributaries in the lowlands and decreased delays the establishment of banana orchards. The soil fertility due to soil-nutrient leaching. growth of the banana plants is retarded; the health of the plants may suffer, rendering them plant more Farmers have also reported that, while historically it has susceptible to disease and pests; and the product been quite unusual to experience one month without diminishes in quality and yield. These problems may rain in Nyamira, lately there has been an increase in bring about the loss of key segments of the market dry spells. Farmers recalled a distinct dry spell from which require specific quality grades. This situation, in November 2017 to May 2018, and from January to turn, depresses incomes and revenue. Low productivity April 2019. These dry spells depleted water sources and poor quality pose challenges at both the post- such as springs, wells, rivers like the Sondu and the harvest and marketing stages of the value chain, such Gucha, and swamps that once hosted migratory birds as the heightened transport costs that come with low from Europe. The birds have since disappeared. volumes. Poor product quality decreases prices, leading to low and unsteady incomes and job losses, which in Farmers also noted that extreme low and high turn can mean insecure livelihoods for farmers. temperatures have been widespread throughout Nyamira County. They describe extremely high Strong winds have a major impact at the input stage temperatures that last for few hours a day and affect due to the loss of topsoil and nutrients, which increases crops like tea and maize. Farmers also report extremely demand for manure and fertilizer. At the production low temperatures, especially in the months of July and stage, stakeholders’ opinion was that strong winds August. Notably, Nyamira County recorded very low (related to variety) have a major impact because temperatures during these months of the year 2020. more labor is required to create a bigger planting hole – which, in turn, demands a lot of manure and Farmers agree that these climatic changes are fertilizer. Thus, strong winds lead to higher labor exacerbated by the county’s increasing environmental costs and input requirements that drive up the cost degradation. This degradation results from factors of production. Strong winds push over trees and such as unsuitable farming methods; inappropriate products, causing damage and premature harvests solid waste management; inadequate sanitary facilities; and lessening farmers’ incomes. Poor harvests can the felling of massive trees for firewood, timber, and bring about a banana shortage in a market with high land clearing; quarrying; pollution; effluents from agro- demand, resulting in high prices. These high prices chemicals; and alien and invasive species (County affect consumer purchasing power, which in turn may Government of Nyamira, 2018). reduce nutrition and food security. Low production results in job losses for the men and youths who are involved in activities such as pruning, loading, and transportation. 22 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series The climate hazards that affect the banana value chain may produce smaller, more fragile eggs of overall poor impact people differently, depending on their roles in quality (Ebeid et al., 2012). High temperatures result in the value chain. Women and youths are likely to be smaller chickens which fetch low prices in the market, affected more than male farmers, because they have meaning a loss of incomes for the producers. Dry limited access to financial services, resources, and spells also severely affect the market forces of supply adaptation strategies such as water harvesting and and demand: they cause high demand for chicken conservation measures. Female farmers are more likely products like chicks, eggs, and meat, coupled with low to suffer from climate hazards due to sociocultural supply. factors which limit their decision-making especially about matters of land. Bananas are a staple food in Youths and women are most likely to be affected by these Nyamira County, and low production greatly impacts climate hazards, not only because they are the value the county’s food and nutrition security. chain’s major players, but also because of inadequate access to knowledge and financial resources to help 3.3.2 Local Chickens themselves adapt. Youth are primarily impacted due to their limited access to land and their inability to make The climatic hazards that effect the local chicken decisions. Vulnerable groups like the disabled are also value chain in Nyamira County are dry spells and heat at risk, because they do not have sufficient capability stress. Both hazards are associated with increasing to adapt to climatic hazards. temperature that arise from hot and humid weather conditions. 3.3.3 Dairy Cows Dry spells impede the input supply stage because The climatic hazards that affect the dairy value chain the associated high temperatures can kill chicks that in Nyamira County are extreme rainfall and dry spells. were purchased from distant hatcheries. During dry Women are more likely to suffer from these climatic spells, raw feed materials such as green vegetation, hazards because they are more involved in the dairy groundnuts, and sunflower seeds dry out, rendering value chain and lack the financial capacity and access them unusable. Reduced feed results in reduced to cope. egg production and higher rates of immature and unviable eggs. Farmers are consequently forced to use Dry spells are a major hindrance to dairy production. commercial feeds, which drives up their production Water scarcity due to dry spells decreases the quality costs. Feed shortages may compel farmers to sell and quantity of fodder crops. Due to fodder shortages, their chickens at throwaway prices2 in order to reduce farmers are compelled to use more commercial feeds stocks. Farmers may sometimes have to leave their and supplements as well as hay and silage as alternative birds to scavenge, which exposes the birds to predators. sources of feed. These sources are sometimes During dry spells, incidences of external parasites such expensive, low-quality, and unavailable in the market as red mites and diseases such as Newcastle disease, due to ineffective distribution systems (Auma, 2018). fowl pox, fowl cholera, and Gumboro increase. These Due to high feed costs, farmers may underfeed cows, diseases and parasites may have severe consequences which results in smaller quantities of lower-quality for chickens, including death. Vaccinations against milk. Decreased production may bring about milk these diseases elevate production costs. During the shortages, which drive up market prices. Higher prices post-harvest stage of production, the high temperatures benefit producers but negatively affect consumers - that are associated with dry spells result in decreased especially low income earners. The high temperatures quality and shelf life of chicken products. The post- associated with dry spells hamper breeding by production risks associated with high temperatures are lowering rates of conception. This situation results in exacerbated by poor infrastructure, like inaccessible long calving intervals and lower milk production. Often roads and poor packaging facilities. there is also an upsurge in disease outbreaks during dry spells, like East Coast Fever, which heightens the Although the magnitude of the impact of heat stress demand for clinical services, vaccinations, and drugs. on the value chain, was rated as severe, this may Because most farmers lack cold storage, milk expires vary based on the exposure of the value chain or the quickly in the heat. Although milk fetches higher prices frequency of the hazard. The possibility of heat stress during dry spells, profit margins remain low due to underscores the need to provide housing with good elevated production costs from sourcing for alternative ventilation; sourcing for heatproof materials may feeds and veterinary services. raise production costs. Heat stress makes chickens pant more in order to keep cool, which causes them Extreme rainfall is also a major problem, because to lose water. Dehydration can be fatal for chickens, excess moisture predisposes livestock to contract and therefore heat can reduce a flock and result in diseases like foot and mouth disease, which in losses. Heat can also cause chickens to suffocate; this turn necessitates increased veterinary services like affects their growth, egg production, and hatching. vaccination and drugs. Extreme rainfall can destroy During egg formation calcium plays an important role infrastructure such as roads, which makes it difficult of hardening the eggs, and thus underfed chickens for clinical and veterinary service providers to access 2Used to describe price that is very low Nyamira County 23 farms and for farmers to access agrovets. Unusable makes weeding and harvesting difficult. infrastructure renders livestock inputs or veterinary care unavailable at the required time. Blocked roads Excessive rainfall damages vegetables while they are also impede farmers from bringing their milk to still at the farm, reducing their quality, shelf life, and collection centers, which results in spoilage. Excess quantity. However, excess rainfall also sometimes rainfall leads to more green matter, which, when fed results in an unusually bountiful harvest, which results to cows, lowers milk fat content, thus diminishing milk in an influx of vegetables at the market, leading to low quality. The maturity of forage influences the milk fat prices. Impassable; flooded roads delay delivery and percentage (Alstrup et al., 2015). drive up transportation costs. 3.3.4 Indigenous Vegetables: African 4. Adaptation to Climate Nightshade and Spider Plant Change and Variability The climatic hazards that affect the indigenous vegetable value chain in Nyamira County are dry spells 4.1 Factors Determining Future and extreme rainfall. A dry spell in local vegetable Vulnerability and Climate Change farming is defined as a period of more than a month Impacts with no rain. During dry spells, farmers delay acquiring planting material like seedlings and seed, which leads Climate change is affecting Nyamira County more to delayed planting. In this scenario, the manure and and more, and the need to adapt is urgent. The fertilizer used during planting is stored for a prolonged county government, non-governmental organizations time, and this results in delayed nutrient release. This (NGOs), and private-sector players are able to provide situation, in turn, impacts the soil’s fertility, which farmers with safety nets (ASDSP, 2014). However, affects crop growth and development. Dry spells, farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change is impaired however, also create positive opportunities to aerate by the wider social, institutional, and geographical soil properly and suppress soil pests with the heat of contexts in which they live. Due to population growth, the sun. pressure on Nyamira County’s natural resources, especially land, has increased. This situation, coupled Dry spells delay land preparation; a hard pan forms with land and water loss, has complicated farmers’ in the earth, which is labor-intensive and expensive traditional strategies of coping with climate hazards. to break. The high temperatures associated with Other factors that have undermined their adaptive dry spells invite an influx of pests, especially aphids, capacity and exacerbated their vulnerability include the caterpillars, and scales, which reduce crop yields and following: sociocultural realities like beliefs, practices, increase pesticide usage. Insufficient moisture retards and values; constrained access to important natural the maturity of local vegetables, especially the spider resources such as land and water and to basic social plant. Dry spells also bring about crop wilting, which services; a lack of markets; poor infrastructure, likewise results in reduced crop yields and so affects including roads and storage facilities; inadequate farmers’ livelihood and incomes. However, during the availability of information, including skills, knowledge, post-harvest stage of production, dry spells have more and data; insufficient credit services; weak institutional positive consequences: reduced sorting and packing arrangements; a lack of empowerment to participate labor costs, ease in transportation, and value addition in political processes; environmental degradation; and in the form of solar drying and preservation. However, the loss of employment opportunities. farmers reported that extremely hot temperatures increase the rate of spoilage and rotting - especially during post-harvest transportation - which means 4.2. Options to Adapt to Climate Change a lower volume of product. A diminished supply of vegetables in the face of high demand at the market 4.2.1 Ongoing Adaptation Practices undercuts farmers’ livelihoods. In an effort to adapt to climate hazards, farmers During extreme rainfall or hailstorms, roads are have embraced various strategies that are relevant to destroyed. This is a major threat to the input stage of specific value chains (Figure 11). production since it affects farmers’ ability to access inputs, raising costs and creating an input shortage. Bananas Waterlogging leads to poor seed germination, erosion, and the washing away of seed; farmers must therefore To combat dry spells, banana farmers have begun buy more seed for replanting. Waterlogging also growing drought-tolerant, disease-resistant, early- makes planting difficult. Additionally, extreme rainfall maturing species, such as the purple banana. Banana can bring about delayed land preparation, nutrient farmers have also embraced other income-generating leaching, increased outbreaks of diseases such as activities like chicken farming. They have begun using blight and black rot, and higher demand for pesticides. extension and advisory services in order to learn the In hilly areas, excessive rainfall means mudslides and best strategies. In an effort to retain soil moisture, soil erosion; in lowlands, farms risk flooding, which farmers have embraced the use of climate-smart 24 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series agriculture (CSA) practices such as proper orchard Dairy Cows establishment by digging deeper and bigger holes, which allow for water collection and retention. They Dairy and cattle farming in Nyamira County is under have also embraced conservation agriculture practices threat from extreme rainfall and dry spells. To better such as zero tillage, cover crops, mulching, and de- utilize the available land, most farmers are rearing their suckering, which helps to regulate evapotranspiration. cattle with zero grazing units that minimize land needs Farmers have established soil and water-conservation and intensify production. To overcome the challenges strategies such as zai pits, terraces like fanya juu and these climate hazards pose to fodder production, fanya chini, and stone bunds. To protect against which include stunted growth and reduced production, hailstone damage, farmers have also begun bagging farmers have adopted on-farm adaptation strategies banana fruits. They also employ strategies like de- such as water conservation using dam liners, feed suckering, thinning to remove excess buds and formulation like maize germ, and cooperatives and plantlets, and ripening bananas using avocado fruits. In farmers’ groups. Farmers are also using chaff cutters order to minimize post-harvest losses that result from to better utilize available fodder such as Napier grass. hot temperatures due to quick ripening and rotting, They are practicing crop rotation involving Napier grass farmers cover the harvest with dry banana leaves and and other crops such as potatoes and sweet potatoes. place it in the shade to protect the bunches from sun Hay and silage are growing in popularity across the scorching and moisture stress. Upgraded collection county as forms of fodder and feed conservation. centers with cold storage facilities and appropriate About 13% of farmers have adapted to climate change transportation facilities play a critical role in reducing using feed conservation and diversification (ASDSP, post-harvest losses. 2014). Farmers have diversified their fodder to include varieties like Bracharia; Boma Rhodes grass, which is To overcome the challenges that strong winds pose drought-tolerant; and Lucerne, which is very palatable to banana production, farmers have adopted varietal and has a high feeding value. They also use by- selection: they choose banana varieties that are not products and crop residue. To improve animal fertility susceptible to lodging, such as “Nusu Ng’ombe.” To and production, 10% of farmers have embraced the ensure that there is adequate manure during planting, use of AI services to enhance their Zebu cattle. To farmers have begun making compost on-farm and manage animal diseases, the county government has stockpiling manure. These processes help ensure enhanced disease surveillance for better prevention and that the banana stalk is strong enough to withstand management of communicable diseases. In addition strong wind. Farmers have also been practicing deep to treatment options such as deworming, routing planting, which facilitates adequate anchorage of the spraying and vaccination, farmers have embraced banana plants, and propping and staking the plants use of good husbandry practices, and use of local with Y-sticks to support them. Agroforestry has gained herbs such as Bracharia grass and Desmodium for popularity in banana-growing areas; trees such as medication. During marketing, farmers have started grevilleas are planted around the farm to protecting using coolers to increase the shelf life of dairy products. the bananas against strong winds. Farmers are conducting collective bulk marketing through cooperatives; they receive benefits in return Local Chickens such as bargaining power and sustainable milk prices. Farmers have devised several strategies to adapt to the Indigenous Vegetables: African Nightshade climactic hazards that affect the chicken value chain. and Spider Plant Due to limited and expensive feeds, they have begun formulating their own feeds using locally available In local vegetable production systems, farmers resources such as maize cobs, Omena fish, and di- establish nurseries using their own seeds. These calcium phosphate. To source more feed, farmers have seeds mostly come from the farmers’ previous crops. created Common Interest Groups (CIGs), which enable As drought increases, Nyamira County has begun to them to purchase feeds in bulk, then share amongst recommend that farmers adopt the use of certified the members. Farmers have begun activities for seed varieties which are drought-tolerant as well as incubation and brooding chicks. They are also adopting pest- and disease-resistant. Farmers now use compost livelihood diversification by incorporating vegetable manure and well-decomposed farmyard manure farming into their enterprises, which has diversified alongside inorganic fertilizers. Manure is recommended their income. To manage diseases effectively, farmers over inorganic fertilizers. Farmers have adopted the are using vaccinations and biosecurity measures such use of organic pesticides and traditional herbs made as disinfection troughs at the entrances of chicken from Mexican marigolds (Tagetes minuta), black-jack houses. To reduce post-harvest losses, farmers have (Bidens pilosa), and pepper (Capsicum annum). These also embraced the use of carton trays for packaging; herbs have proven to be effective in managing pests. they utilize sawdust as cushioning to minimize egg To conserve soil moisture during dry spells, farmers breakage. Online and social media marketing is also use mulch and double digging to aerate soil. gaining popularity, especially among youth farmers. Nyamira County 25 4.2.2 Potential Adaptation Practices farmers might embrace use of a battery cage system that will ease egg collection; they could also use crates Despite the practices that farmers are already utilizing or plastic boxes for egg collection. Other innovations on their farms, other adaptation options were proposed, might also increase efficiency, such as the use of on- which if implemented would aid in averting the climate line marketing platforms and the establishment of a hazards identified in the selected value chains (Figure one-stop shop where farmers can source all necessary 10). inputs including feeds, vaccines, and drugs and can also market their products. Bananas Dairy Cows Establishing more nurseries with varieties suitable for Nyamira County’s climatic conditions could help To mitigate the effects of dry spells and extreme rainfall prevent shortages of banana plantlets during dry hazards in the dairy cow value chain, extension services spells. Since manure is an important input during in Nyamira County could be upscaled by increasing banana establishment, farmers could build up manure the ratio of qualified and certified vet officers to and fertilizers stocks for use at the onset of rainfall. farmers. Farmers could also increase their adoption Farmers might embrace diversification to other agro- of good husbandry practices such as proper housing enterprises which can supplement banana production. and vaccination schedules, their use of irrigation- Upscaling weather advisory services would support based production systems, their cultivation of drought better planning for input acquisition and orchard tolerant fodder varieties such as Bracharia, and their establishment, and upscaling water harvesting and use of fodder conservation such as hay and silage and storage during periods of rain could supplement crop- of mineral supplementation. To ensure the availability water requirements during dry spells. The construction of feeds, during seasons of extreme rainfall, farmers of cold storage facilities at banana collection centers can construct hay bans for the storage of excess feeds for banana preservation could minimize post-harvest to use during dry spells. To check for milk quality before losses. More farmers could grow varieties that are marketing, the use of alcoholic guns and lactometers less susceptible to lodging, agroforestry could be should be embraced by both farmers and cooperatives upscaled, and collective sourcing of farmyard manure along with the use of digital milk recording systems to and fertilizers could minimize costs. Extension services maintain proper production records. At the marketing could be expanded in Nyamira County through the stage of the value chain, the use of coolers and deep integration of field-based farmer schools and the freezers could be upscaled to increase the dairy use of mass media through local radio and television products’ shelf life. stations. Augmented extension services will build farmers’ capacity for good agricultural practices such Indigenous Vegetables: African Nightshade as wrapping banana bunches, de-handing to reduce and Spider Plant losses from mechanical damage, and the use of appropriate transportation. The proposed adaptation strategies along the indigenous vegetable value chain include the Local Chickens enforcement of regulations governing agro-inputs like certified seed and fertilizers, and the restructuring To avert the climate hazards affecting the local of the government fertilizer subsidy program. A chicken value chain, several adaptation strategies number of climate-smart production practices could were proposed to support what farmers are already be upscaled: water conservation measures like the practicing. Farmers could construct climate-smart use of double digging and sunken pits; the adoption modern houses and well-aerated structures in of multi-storey gardens, greenhouses, and shade net brooding areas with automated incubators and production technologies; the use of integrated pest standby generators for manual incubators. To minimize management (IPM); and farmers’ seed selection. disease outbreaks, farmers can establish biosecurity Several post-harvest management practices could measures, proper sanitation, and routine vaccination also be enhanced, such as value addition, the use of using conventional drugs. Farmers’ capacities for the solar drying techniques, and the construction of cold use of emerging feeds and feeding systems, on-farm storage and refrigeration facilities. The promotion of ration feed formulation, and supplementation could be e-marketing and contractual and collective marketing enhanced. To minimize losses at the post-harvest stage, could prevent exploitation by middlemen. 26 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Adaptation strategies used in selected value chains in Nyamira County Banana Provision of On-Farm Harvesting ProductInputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Seedling scarcity, because nursery Delayed establishment of the Loss of key market segments that Job losses due to limited products; operators find it difficult to create orchards and loss of seedlings due require specific grades of quality; unpredictable price fluctuations, nurseries; limited access and to moisture stress lead to increased decreased quantities; leading to unsteady incomes; idle increased prices of planting replacement costs; low yields and underutilization of packaging, due to marketers and surveyors leading to materials; low demand for manures retarded growth lead to high cost of limited products; redundancies of unemployment and low income. Dry spell and fertilizers; this leads to loss of management; pest and disease transportation capacity, leading to income for farmers and agro attack; reduced production in terms diseconomies of scale. Consequences dealers; decreased demand for of size, quality, and quantity of extension and advisory services. bunches - leading to loss of income. Magnitude of Minor-Major Major-Severe Minor-ModerateImpact Minor-Moderate Adoption of early and fast-maturing Proper orchard establishment Shading harvested banana Diversification to other products or Farmers’ Current varieties; farmers engage in other (digging deep and bigger holes, bunches; cushioning banana businesses (avocados and sweet income-generating activities; retention of unfilled spaces for water fingers.; diversification to other potatoes) Coping Strategies government addresses other collection); application of manure businesses (avocado, cane, and enterprises and provides advisory and fertilizers for water retention and potato transportation) services on other enterprises like nutrient supply; mulching, planting drought tolerant crops cover crops, desuckering to regulate evapotranspiration. Establishing more banana- Use of weather advisory services in Setting up cold storage facilities at Diversification to other sectors; Potential hardening nurseries; stocking planning input acquisition and collection centers; wrapping banana entering into new contracts and Adaption Options manures and fertilizers for use orchard establishment; continued use bunches during harvesting; diversifying enterprises; acquiring during the rainy season; raising of mulch and cover crops for promoting use of appropriate multiple set of skills in different awareness about other moisture retention; encouraging transportation and holding facilities; fields. drought-tolerant crops. water harvesting and storage; drilling diversification to other businesses boreholes; promoting other management practices such as pruning (removal of the male bud). Non-adherence to regulations and Bureaucratic processes which lead Not investing in cold storage Non-synchronized inter-county fiscal input standards; laboratory and nursery to delays in release of resources; facilities leading to farmers selling at policies and taxes, leading to multiple Underlying Factors production; meddling in the name of inappropriate messaging from throw away prices; inappropriate taxation across counties, which personal economic and political various service providers, which packaging and transportation lowers farmer's profit margins. interest; supply-driven markets instead makes the farmer deliberate on the equipment, leading to losses during of demand-driven markets; institutional best choice handling, packaging, and corruption. transportation; bad road networks lead to perishing and waste. Strong winds do not affect seedlings - Increased cost, as more manure is Sorting and grading becomes costly Loss of jobs and earnings, as a they affect mature banana plants; needed to fill bigger holes; lodging and tedious; underutilization of result of limited products; increased increased demand for manure and banana plants; premature harvests packaging materials/containers; prices due to high demand and fertilizers, which leads to increased and damages to mature banana redundancies in transportation and reduced supply; redundancies in production costs; demand for fingers leading to losses. carriage capacity, diseconomies of marketers and researchers. Strong Winds extension and advisory services scale, and loss of revenues and Consequences increases, thus increasing cost of profits.production. Magnitude of Minor-Major Major Minor-Moderate Minor-Severe Impact Variety selection, e.g. Nusu Propping and staking to support Rudimentary sorting and grading Diversification into other Farmers’ Current Ng'ombe; on-farm compost making trees; deep planting for proper skills; using the locally available income-generating activities; Coping Strategies and stock piling of manures; use of anchoring; practicing agroforestry to materials for packaging; venturing outsourcing of bananas from other mainstream government extension break the speed of the wind. into other transport businesses. markets/ counties. services; use of PPPs in extension and advisory service provision. Select varieties which are not Establishing pockets of woodlands on Training farmers on sorting and Diversifying into other susceptible to lodging; joint the farm; continuous agroforestry. grading; using of appropriate income-generating activities; Potential sourcing/procuring of bulky packaging and transporting venturing into cold storage to help Adaption Options manures and fertilizers to reduce materials; diversifying to other suppliers during times of shortage; cost; establishing and businesses. using value addition to increase operationalizing farmer field product shelf life; diversifying skills schools; using of other forms of and competencies to fit into other extension approaches like sectors. extension, mass media, and local FM stations. Farmer's lack of technical knowledge On-farm production often disregards Lack of cohesive policy guidelines Lack of cohesive policy on marketing Underlying Factors of variety selection, leading to the professional advice and ignores on post-harvest management of and trade of bananas. use of unsuitable varieties. agronomical practices that can farm produce. minimize the effects of strong winds; economic constraints Nyamira County 27 Chicken Provision of ( ) On-Farm Harvesting Product Local Inputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing High cost of labor and inputs due Low quality and immature eggs, Low production of eggs leading to High demand and low production, to needing additional materials for leading to low profits and high losses; immature and unviable leading to over or under-supply of temperature regulation; increased cost of production; increased eggs which make hatching difficult chicks; breakages due to poor chicken mortality which results in mortality due to unpredictable to get quality eggs for hatching, handling, poor roads, and poor losses and low income; increased climate conditions, pests, and -may cause deformed chicks. package design. Heat Stress feed prices due to inadequate raw diseases, leading to high cost of Consequences materials and limited resources. production; underfed chickens, leading to low quality eggs, chicks, and profits. Magnitude of Severe Severe Severe Severe Impact Farmers’ Current Chicken coexist with human Raising chickens free range, with Physical picking and sorting Physical market surveys and Coping Strategies beings in the house, especially the kitchen left overs and feed using natural light, feeling, and sourcing; use of saw dust as kitchen; chickens allowed table substitutes; using ash, herbal bare hands. cushioning; physical delivery to scraps and free movement. concoctions, paraffins, and tyres the target population. for disinfection and pests; natural hatching. Potential Use of smart-climate modern Using of automatic incubators and Introducing of battery cage Online survey promotions, Adaption Options houses; online chick sourcing/ standby generators; using system for easy egg collection; adverts, phone calls, and phone calls, media, adverts; use biosecurity, conventional drugs, and candling, using torches, using of media; using pastors and of standardized feed ration and vaccines; formulating on-farm feed digital scales. flyers for advertisement; using feed supplementation. ration according to standards. egg trays; making “one stop shops” for all inputs. Feeding is done by women and Disease control and vaccinations Most farmers do not want to use a Women are perceived to be Underlying Factors youth, but women and youth do not are done using improperly-meas- hatchery for brooding, which lead to immoral and not are allowed to do have the power to source feed and ured herbs, which leads to low hatchability and many embryo market surveys, and youth are not chicks. poisoning; heat stress compels deaths; most farmers cannot access taken seriously; little regulation of farmers to use non-researched or afford incubators or backup taxes and enforcement of quality methods of treatment and generators, leading to low control; farmers will opt to sell their vaccinations leading to higher production. product at home rather than taking mortality rates. them to the market. Increased temperatures Decreased hatching due to high Reduced number of eggs; cost of High demand and low supply; necessitate heat proof housing temperatures; emerging pests and production increases, leading to improper packaging, poor roads, and materials; high temperatures diseases which lead to high loss low profits/ income; difficulty poor handling causes breakage and increase maturity rate, thus of chicks and cost of drugs; sorting;. lots of immature eggs thus reduces sales and increases increasing costs; inadequate inadequate feeds and increase and few viable eggs; increased transport costs. feeds cause increased feed prices, leading to high cost of breakages and deformities. Dry Spell competition and prices. raising chicks and low-quality Consequences chicks. Magnitude of Major-Severe Major-Severe Major-Severe Severe Impact Cushioning the rooftop and the Natural hatching and brooding; Using saw dust to prevent Engaging in physical market Farmers’ Current house using locally available using herbal remedies like ash for breakage; using of natural light; surveying and after sale services; materials like sacks and boxes; disinfectant; using non-standard- Coping Strategies physically observing by, feeling using baskets, cartons, and natural hatching and brooding; ized feed like kitchen left-overs, and shaking. buckets; physically delivering using the mother chicken and formulations, and weeds; using chicks and eggs. brooder jikos; using non-standard- the free range system. ized feeds; using kitchen left overs and the free range system. Using smart-climate modern Using automatic incubators; using Using crates and plastic boxes as Performing online market surveys, Potential structures like backup generator of biosecurity measures; using cushioning; using candles and advertisements, and promotions; for manual incubators and timely vaccinations; standardizing torches; learning how to egg sort using after-sale services; using egg Adaption Options automatic incubators with feed formula ratios on-farm. in different ways; learning how to trays; creating “one stop shops” for standby generators; formulating grade better. input. feed rations, systems, and demonstrations at the farm level. Women and youth are mostly Using of herbal treatments to Culturally, women and female Culturally, women are not allowed Underlying Factors affected because land is owned by control diseases that can be youth are assigned to collect eggs to source for the market as it is men; women and youth lack treated with drugs and vaccines, (not men); normally, men control perceived to be immoral; money collateral to access credit because leading poisoning, and high the income after sales; women that’s meant for market survey title deeds are held by men. mortality; some pests, parasites, and youth do activities like packaging and transportation is and pathogens develop resistance feeding, cleaning, and selling, but fully controlled by men. to drugs, leading to increased decision-making falls to men. mortality rates. 28 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Dairy (Cow) Provision of On-Farm Harvesting ProductInputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Affects the implementation of Reduced heat signs leading to Poor quality milk; reduced volumes Damaged roads, leading to delay in extension packages, leading to reduced milk production, because of of milk. milk transportation and spoilage; reduced level of production; makes fewer calves; inadequate fodder reduced and low-quality fodder for the house inhabitable, leading to production; destruction of feed; conservation; inadequate quality reduced milk yields; reduces fodder increasing rates of disease; reduced and quantity of product. Extreme Rainfall and Hail production; reduced milk trade. milk production. Consequences Magnitude of Minor-Severe Major-Severe Moderate Moderate Impact Using online extension services, Training farmers on proper heat Using organoleptic techniques to Fermenting excess milk; using Farmers’ Current which are very limited; using service detection; using local herbs. test the quality of milk; using senses local preservation methods like Coping Strategies provider-based extension services; such as smelling; using water, cold water; using low quality using substandard housing units; wheat flour, blue band to adulterate fodder for conservation, like using banana stems and maize left milk; recording milk stock with pen banana stems and black jacks; overs. and paper. sourcing from other farms. Enhancing online extension Improving nutrition and proper Using alcoholic guns and Using of deep freezers and milk Potential services; providing standard housing housing for the dairy cows; lactometers; using dry matter to coolers; constructing more hay Adaption Options for dairy cows with the right establishing fodder specifically for increase milk production; bans to store feeds pricing milk specifications and construction; conservation; enhancing use of embracing digital milk recording properly to attract increased establishing hay bans. mineral supplements; using qualified and management systems. production. and certified veterinary officers to advice on disease control and management. Hilly areas such as the Kiaboyoru High cost of treatment and A.I Famers are not free to expose Poor road networks that impede Underlying Factors hills, Manga, and the Masaba hills services; poor quality/adulteration of their production records due to transportation of inputs and products; are more effected by hailstones than drugs and A.I services; using herbs cultural beliefs; some farmers high cost of processing equipment; the rest of the county; extension instead of medicine; unimplemented want to run their own accounts poor policy implementation like services are affected because of policy and misinformation. separately; farmers do not trust Kenya Dairy Board issuing licenses poor roads.; fodder production and the milk-bulking societies because but being unable to control hawkers. quality is reduced. they fear losing their product. Hinders implementation of Extreme heat hinders breeding by Easy transportation and timely Easy transportation and timely production activities, leading to low lowering rates of conception; delivery of milk, leading to reduced delivery of milk leading to reduced yield; housing units can be prolonged dry spells lead to poor milk spoilage; quality feeds due to milk spoilage; quality feeds due to restructured and renovated to quality feed materials; vaccinations favorable temperatures and favorable temperatures and minimize leakages and provide control expected diseases. conditions; low-quality raw materials in conditions; low-quality raw Dry Spell quality manure; leads to reduced value-added products materials in value-added products Consequences yields, leading to reduced fodder production. Magnitude of Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Impact Reliance on rain -fed farming; using Training farmers on proper heat Tasting and smelling milk; milk Using boda boda to transport milk; extension packages; using detection techniques; using Farmers’ Current adulteration with what flour, etc. ; fermenting excess milk; using substandard housing in response to poor-quality raw materials due to recording milk stock manually. standing hay and feed directly from Coping Strategies heat stress; using banana stems and scarcity of good quality fodder; using the farm; sourcing from other farms. maize left overs. local methods to treat cows (e.g., using salt to control Foot and Mouth Disease and giving animals local alcohol). Potential Using irrigation-based production; Improving nutrition and proper Using alcohol guns and lactometer; Using of deep freezers and bulk standardizing housing according to housing to control extreme increasing milk production through coolers; constructing more hay bans Adaption Options specifications and construction; temperatures; establishing fodder dry matter feeding; embracing digital for storing excess fodder; pricing milk establishing of hay bans. farms using drought tolerant milk recording and management properly to attract production. varieties (e.g. Brachiaria) for fodder systems. conservation; using qualified and certified veterinary services for disease control. Reduced production of milk and Reduced production of raw materials Underlying Factors fodder; some parts of the County for feed formulation; extreme could be recording higher rainfall temperatures hinder onset of heat N/A N/A than others. periods. Nyamira County 29 Vegetables Provision of On-Farm Harvesting Product (Local) Inputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Delays acquisition and lower quality of Enhances land preparations and delays Less labor required; easier packaging; Fewer market actors; reduced product planting materials, especially seedlings; planting; increased pest population low volumes of vegetables transported; supply; increase in prices due to delays acquisition and lowers quality of (especially mites), leading to increased possible dust contamination, especially if reduced supply; reduced shelf life and fertilizer due to extended storage. costs; lower quality and quantity of transporting via boda boda; reduced shelf increased post-harvest losses; reduced produce, and lowered profits; reduced life, higher post-harvest losses. income due to low volumes. Drought quality, quantity, and shelf life of the Consequences vegetables. Magnitude of Minor-Major Moderate-Major Minor-Moderate Minor-Major Impact Farmers have their own farm and Minimum tillage using herbicides; Value addition through drying and Verbal promotion/marketing; hawking; Farmers’ Current seasonal nurseries; farmers use their own mulching; bucket irrigation and using blanching; perforating nylon bags to use middlemen moving from farm to farm; local seed; farmers use fertilizer subsidy branches for shading; using traditional for transportation; storing product in the farmers avoiding middlemen to maximize Coping Strategies programs and homemade manure; pesticides; farmers access pesticide from shade and spraying it with water. on profit; sprinkling water on vegetables farmers access fertilizer from uncertified uncertified sources; proper timing of to maintain freshness and steady supply; services like the market center; using of vegetable harvest (early morning and late using temporary shade. mulching/compost manure; using of evening, when temperatures are low). traditional pesticides or pesticide from uncertified sources. Use certified seeds; setting up and Using shade nets; adopting water Using of solar drivers, structure, and Using E-marketing, collective marketing, Potential promoting group nurseries of certified harvesting and irrigation technology like equipment; promoting appropriate and contractual marketing; using a Adaption Options seedlings; using seed trays; restructuring drip irrigation; adopting water conservation transportation baskets and facilities like marketing forum; using trade fairs and fertilizer subsidy programs; enforcing measures like double digging and sunken refrigerated tracks; establishing cold exhibitions; enhancing links between regulations governing agro-inputs; pits; adopting of multi-story technology; storage warehouses/stores. farmers and buyers; value addition; teaching farmers about proper compost training farmers in IPPM; enforcing setting up an appropriate market with making promoting foliar feeding of crops; regulation governing pesticide use; infrastructure such as shades, stalls, and teaching farmers about IPM and safe training farmers on safe use of pesticides; cold rooms. use of local pesticides. adopting technologies like green houses and shade nets; using foliar feeding after harvesting intervals to boost leaf growth; promoting appropriate technology like charcoal coolers; training farmers in seed selection. High levels of poverty during extended dry High levels of poverty; most producers Lack of appropriate storage facilities and Lack of organized market structure spells; farmers divert resources meant for lack enough capital to employ alternative transportation facilities; lack of (shades, stalls, cold rooms) for the local Underlying Factors inputs to other pressing issues; the technologies (such as water harvesting, appropriate, and expensive post-harvest vegetables; market actors have negative vulnerability of socially marginalized double digging, and irrigation) to handling facilities like pack houses and attitudes towards collective marketing groups like widows and single mothers overcome the consequences of extended solar driers; nmarket actors don’ have Inadequate knowledge about and skills in aggravates the situation; inadequate dry spells and plant on time; inadequate access to affordable credit facilities; marketing and pricing; lack of marketing access to climate information services; skills in and knowledge of alternative inadequate knowledge about and skills in policy and regulations. inadequate storage facilities for input, and technologies; male capital owners have a local vegetable processing limited access to agrovets. low opinion of the vegetable value chain, and do not allow the female chain actors technology, land, or resources. Reduced availability of seeds and Delayed land preparation; soil erosion; Increased labor due to high levels of Reduced supply to market; reduced seedlings due to hailstone destruction; poor germination; increased costs of land damage; increased cost of transport due quality due to damages and mud; difficulty in acquiring and transporting preparation and planting; increased cost to poor roads; delayed transportation. reduced prices and increased organic and inorganic fertilizers; of pest control due to more pest sand Increased post-harvest losses/ increased post-harvest losses. increased transportation cost due to diseases; reduced quality and quantity perishability, as damaged leaves are Extreme Rainfall and Hail poor road networks. due to pest attacks and hailstone prone to color change and rotting. Consequences damage; increased perishability. Magnitude of Moderate-Major Major Major Minor-Major Impact Using litter to construct shades that Minimum tillage using herbicides; Value addition through blanching and Verbal promotion/marketing; middlemen Farmers’ Current protect seedlings from hail; establishing mulching; using tree branches to shade drying; using perforated bags during moving farm to farm/ Farmers use Coping Strategies nurseries under trees; fertilizer subsidy local vegetables; planting; using trash line transport; storing in shade for draining middlemen to get prices; using temporary programs; using compost manure; using to control erosion; using traditional shed and marketing stalls stickers to improve herbicides’ efficacy; pesticides; farmers access pesticides using traditional pesticides; farmers form uncertified sources; using stocks to access pesticides from uncertified increase efficacy; putting herbicides sources. under shade to drain; proper harvesting timing. Potential Promoting crop insurance; adopting Using agroforestry trees for shade; using Promoting appropriate transportation Using of E-Marketing and collective Adaption Options appropriate technology like shade nets shade nets, greenhouses, and vertical facilities like vegetable transportation marketing; contractual farming; using and greenhouses; using growth/propa- bags; proper soil and water management bags; periodic road maintenance; trade fairs/exhibition; enhancing gation hormones; using seed trays; structures; adopting water harvesting promotion of appropriate local vegetables; e-marketing; enhancing farmer-to-buyer restructuring subsidy programs to make technology like dams; using vailed nursery creating storage structures to ensure that links; value addition; selling and them more responsive to farmers’ beds; training famers in IPM; enforcing vegetables drain well. procuring vegetables contractually; needs; comprehensive crop insurance; regulations governing pesticide sale and setting up appropriate market structure educating farmers on appropriate use; training farmers in safe use of with sheds, stalls, etc. manure making and storage processes; pesticides; adopting technologies such as educating famers on IPM and safe use greenhouses and shade nets; spraying of chemicals; enforcing regulations on product with fungicides after each farm input supply. harvesting interval. Poor road network and inadequate storage Farmers do not have the capital to invest Poor road networks; lack of appropriate Lack of appropriate market facilities like Underlying Factors facilities; high poverty levels; most nursery in alternative technologies such as shade storage and transport facilities; shades, stalls, and cold rooms; lack of operators are unable to afford alternative nets, vertical bags, and tools./machinery; inadequate knowledge and skills in organized marketing structure for local technologies such as shade nets and inadequate knowledge of safe and post-harvest technology, like solar driers. vegetables; local vegetable markets actors greenhouses; lack of certified commercial effective pesticide use and disposal; reluctant to market collectively vegetable nurseries; inadequate knowledge inadequate knowledge about and skills in and skills about local vegetable seed sustainable land management processing at the household level. intervention. Figure 12: Climate variabilities and adaptation strategies across selected value chains in Nyamira County 30 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 5. Policies and Strategies on Climate Change The development of policies and programs and their effective implementation play a key role in decision-making, since they affect actions and outcomes related to climate risk management and resource use. Several policies have been developed and implemented in Nyamira County in response to climate variability and change, with a focus on adaptation and mitigation (Table 1). Table 1: Policies and programs relevant to climate change adaptation in Nyamira County Policy Year Policy objective(s) Interventions for climate change Challenges and achieved at the adaptation and mitigation policy gaps county level National Climate 2018 Establishment of Development of Climate Change Fund The county lacks Finance Policy mechanisms to Regulations and Climate Change appropriate climate mobilize climate Finance Policy change policies, finance budgeting, and political and NCCAP 2013-2017; Increase forest cover - A draft policy has been developed on economic will. 2018-2022 to 10% reclamation of riparian land through removal eucalyptus trees Rehabilitation of - Awareness campaigns on benefits of degraded lands bamboo farming as an alternative to including rangelands eucalyptus along rivers and on hilltops Non-state actors Heightened resilience - Provision of seedlings and trainings are more active in the wildlife and by the Department of Environment than state actors tourism sector - Promotion of agroforestry to increase on environmental tree cover from 15% to 35% by issues. planting Grevillea trees to replace eucalyptus or blue gum trees (CIDP, 2018) Increased food and Strengthening the environmental nutrition security resilience and social inclusion of value through enhanced chains, and promoting the viable and productivity and equitable commercialization of the resilience of the agricultural sector through value chain agricultural sector in a development. low carbon manner Provision of support to smallholder farmers by allowing them to adopt better agronomic practices and improve their incomes. Reduced risks to The KMD has been conducting communities and participatory scenario planning (PSP) infrastructure from programs that aid in planning for climate-related climate risk interventions disasters such as droughts and floods Enhanced resilience - Promotion and commercialization of of the Blue Economy fish farming; in the years 2019-2020 and water sector through access to - Construction and stocking by and efficient use of farmers of167 fishponds with 187,000 water for agriculture, fingerlings manufacturing, domestic purposes, wildlife, and other uses National Climate Sessional Enhanced adaptive - Formulation of the first County Change Framework Paper No. 3 capacity and resilience Climate Change Policy (2020) Policy of 2016 to climate variability - Development of a County Climate and change Change Strategic Plan - Planned establishment of a county Promotion of a low- climate change unit carbon development pathway Nyamira County 31 Policy Year Policy objective(s) Interventions for climate change Challenges and achieved at the adaptation and mitigation policy gaps county level Kenya Climate- 2017-2026 Enhance adaptive - Provision of education and inputs like Smart Agriculture capacity and resilience fodder seed to CIGs for bulking Strategy (KCSAS) for farmers, pastoralists, -Promotion of aquaculture and fisher-folk to the development, enforcement of adverse impacts of legislation, quality assurance through climate change safe handling of fish and fishery products and management and conservation of fishery resources. Development of - Promotion of stand-alone solar mechanisms that systems and energy saving jikos in minimize greenhouse homes gas emissions from - Training about solar vegetable driers agricultural production across the 20 Nyamira County wards systems Creation of an enabling - Development of County Crop regulatory and Agriculture Bill (2019), which Weak institutional institutional framework aims to provide a comprehensive, structures, harmonized, efficient, and effective collaboration and legal and regulatory framework for the engagement to development and regulation of crop address climate- agriculture in Nyamira County change issues Response to cross- County Department of Agriculture has cutting issues that proposed an Agricultural Resource adversely impact or & Technology Transfer Center. The enhance CSA Centre will house various technologies (biotechnology laboratory, seed Inadequate human multiplication sites, a modern fish resources and multiplication and training center, technical capacity and crop and livestock-based to handle climate technologies) and promote climate- change issues smart technologies. The National 2015-2030 Consolidation of the - Development of County Climate Adaptation Plan country’s vision for Change Action Plan adaptation supported -Establishment of the department of by macro-level actions climate change which is domiciled that enhance long term in the Department of Environment, resilience and adaptive Water, Energy and Natural Resources capacity Agriculture Sector 2010-2020 Revolutionization of - Establishment of Nyamira County Development agriculture and its Agricultural Development Fund Strategy(ASDS) re-orientation towards Bill (2019) which aims to finance the establishment the County’s agricultural growth of economic and by supporting strategic farming commercial enterprises interventions with a high potential for that can provide enhancing productivity, value, quality, employment to and marketing youths and improve - Creation of a processing plant in livelihoods Nyamira by the county government to enhance and promote value addition in the banana value chain - Support from the county government for “Youth in Agriculture” programs through provision of inputs like seed, fertilizer, pesticides and spray pumps 32 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 6. Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Institutional resources and capacity are important considerations for improving farmers’ adaptive capacity and climate change resilience because they shape resource use actions and outcomes. To enhance climate change mitigation and adaptation in Nyamira County, several organizations have endeavored to offer off-farm services and interventions to farmers and communities. These interventions include research and extension services, early warning services, capacity building, the provision of technology and technology transfer, enhancement of market linkages, financial and credit services, non-financial services like agro-inputs and insurance, and disease surveillance (Table 2). Table 2: List of institutions that support the implementation of agricultural interventions in Nyamira County Off-farm services Institutions Specific interventions in Nyamira Challenges County Nyamira County On-farm demonstrations on new Inadequate expertise Department of Agriculture, crop and livestock technologies, (extension and research Livestock and Fisheries innovations, and management officers) leading to limited practices access to farmer extension Promotion of good agricultural services to facilitate practices (GAPs), use of artificial demand-driven research insemination and other modern and increased use of breeding technologies improved technologies KALRO-Kisii Centre Research and development related to the suitability of various AEZs to different crop varieties and livestock Poor coordination and breeds collaboration among Kisii Agriculture Training Trainings on GAPs institutions leads to Center (ATC-Kisii) duplication and overlap of roles Agricultural research and Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) Training and technology transfer extension services Kenya Animal Genetic Provision of AI and extension services Resource Centre relevant to animal breeding, including breeding technologies Limited funding which Kisii University On-farm research trials and technology affects efficiency of transfer extension services Department of Rehabilitation of community water Environment, Water, schemes Mining and Natural Providing households with piped Resources Restrained institutional water capacity especially on drilling of boreholes research and training – the Construction of additional water county depends on Kisii harvesting structures like tanks County Kenya Forestry Service Promotion of conservation Kenya Forest Research Protection of water catchment areas Institute Farm and dry land management Monitoring programs in biodiversity conservation National Environment Environmental awareness raising and Management Authority education about the importance of planting trees Coordination of various environmental management activities and promotion of environmental considerations into policy, plans, programs, and projects Nyamira County 33 Off-farm services Institutions Specific interventions in Nyamira Challenges County Regulatory services Kenya Plant Health Provision of inspectorate services on Limited regulatory Inspectorate Service all matters related to plant health and expertise results to quality control of agricultural inputs inadequate surveillance and produce, such as certification of and certification of the quality of seeds and fertilizers agricultural inputs Pest Control Products Regulation and approval of pest thus exposing farmers/ Board control products consumers to counterfeits Quality monitoring for pest control products already in the market High cost of key inputs KDB Inspection and licensing of milk such as seed, pesticides, handling premises and surveillance of fertilizer, drugs and for the quality and safety of milk and milk resource-poor farmers products Kenya Bureau of Standards Development of quality standards Provision of facilities for the examination and testing of commodities and any production and processing materials KMD Weather forecasts and advisory Inadequate synergies services through weekly bulletins between the weather Seasonal weather forecasts in the local advisory providers and language via media channels such decision makers as local radio and television stations, Climate information social media platforms like WhatsApp, Technical format and services and and short message services through language of the climate agro-weather advisories phones. and weather forecasts which not easily Christian Aid Support for farmers to act on climate understood by decision change issues makers Team Kenya Environment, Awareness creation on climate change Limited technical capacity and environmental conservation to interpret and use probabilistic forecasts in decision making. KMD in collaboration Warnings about disasters like Limited farmers’ with experts from county mudslides and landslides knowledge on weather departments and the Support for the planning of farm and climate issues. Climate risk ASDSP activities and cropping calendars Inadequate funding management for climate change (Adaptation planning, adaptation and climate Early warning systems- risk management EWS) and participatory scenario planning-PSP ADA (Adaptation) Support county government to Consortium (Partners mainstream climate change into include: National Drought development and planning through Management Authority, the County Climate Change Fund National Treasury, Climate Mechanism Change Directorate, NEMA, Ministry of Devolution and ASALs and the Council of Governors. 34 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Off-farm services Institutions Specific interventions in Nyamira Challenges County Non-financial subsidies Nyamira County Subsidies for farm inputs like AI Inadequate linkages for inputs like fertilizers, government services and certified seeds and between technical pesticides, seeds, and fertilizers knowledge support and trainings access to finance One Hen Campaign Trainings for women and youths in entrepreneurship, agribusiness, and poultry management Provision of one hen that participants are required to rear according to their training Insurance companies like Provision of cushion for crops and Jubilee Insurance animals Cooperative societies, Support for in the production, post- including Borabu, Gesima, harvest, and marketing processes Keroke, the Peri-urban Farmers’ Cooperative Society, and Hobanapo Cooperative Society UNGA Feeds, BIDCO, Distribution and sale of agro-inputs Ultravetis, Vital Animal Trainings and demonstrations on the Health, East Africa Seeds use of these inputs Co. Ltd., Kenya Seeds Co. Ltd., Osho Chemicals, Murphy Chemicals Ltd., Bayer East Africa, and Baraka Fertilizers Ltd. Aberdare Technologies Provision of certified and clean Ltd. planting materials Private nursery operators Jomo Kenyatta University Development partners like Capacity building initiatives on climate Christian Aid change action issues Team Kenya Environment Awareness creation on climate change and environmental conservation Financial services such National and county Project financing High interest rates from as rural credit schemes governments banks that limit access Development partners Project financing for technical capacity to finance to small and including the European and value chain development medium enterprises Union, the United States Agency for International Stringent institutional and Development (USAID), evaluation criteria JICA, IFAD, World Bank, the United Nations Development Program, and Inadequate financial the Food and Agriculture products and services Organization of the United well-designed for farmers Nations Micro-finance institutions Support for farmers to access credit at such as Musoni lower interest rates Limited long-term sustainable impacts from One Acre Fund Financing to support on-farm and donor-funded projects input supply Savings and Credit Support for farmers to access credit Cooperative Societies and and loans at low interest other cooperative societies Mobile service providers Mobile banking services like Safaricom, Airtel, and Telcom Banks like Kenya Provision of financial and credit Commercial Bank, the services Agriculture Finance Corporation, the Cooperative Bank of Kenya, and Equity Nyamira County 35 Off-farm services Institutions Specific interventions in Nyamira Challenges County Market Services, New KCC Procurement of high-quality raw Limited agriculture infrastructure, and milk for processing, packaging, and marketing policy and linkages marketing regulations Weak, poor, and KDB Various activities to promote domestic, inadequate farmers’ regional, and international markets for organizations, Kenyan milk and milk products associations, and Kenya Meat Commission Meat value addition cooperative societies Provision of ready markets Increased productivity and Inadequate product competitiveness markets and marketing World Vision Support for value addition in the infrastructure banana value chain through the provision of banana-processing machines Poor rural infrastructure Africa Harvest Promotion of sustainable farming practices in the banana value chain Low investment in storage Processors like Highland Processing, marketing, and distribution and processing facilities Creamers and Food Ltd, of Nyamira County’s agricultural Brookside Dairy, Stawi products Foods and Fruits Limited Inadequate market Producer associations Protection for farmers against information system like the Banana Growers exploitation by middlemen Association of Kenya (which are largely absent in Nyamira County) Mobile service providers Provision of online marketing platforms like Safaricom and Airtel 7. Synthesis and Outlook This profile analyzes four key agriculture value chains in development. In order to allow socially vulnerable Nyamira County: dairy milk, bananas, local chickens, groups like women, youths, and disabled people better indigenous vegetables. These VCCs were chosen access to extension, veterinary, and credit services, for their contribution to the county’s economy, their among others, the Nyamira County government could resilience to the current and future effects of climate institute relevant policies that unlock productivity change, and their involvement of economically and constraints and promote access to services. The socially vulnerable groups. However, these VCCs are government can educate extension service providers at risk due to climatic hazards like dry spells, extreme about new technologies and strengthen the capacities rainfall, heat stress, and strong winds. of its institutions to provide services and information to farmers. In the face of climate hazards, Nyamira County could improve the productivity, profitability, and In order to support effective and sustainable agricultural competitiveness of agriculture by unlocking some marketing systems, collective marketing structures of the constraints identified in this analysis. Some like cooperatives and producer federations could be possible solutions towards the rejuvenation of the established. These structures will aid and support agricultural sector include investing in strategies that farmers and safeguard them from exploitation. promote the use of non-rainfed agriculture, in improved infrastructure, in technology development and support, To enhance resilience and to cushion farming systems and in the promotion of effective extension and credit against the detrimental effects of climate change, services. CSA production technologies could be integrated into county policies. The county could then promote Despite the limited ability of the county government the wide-scale adoption of these technologies. CSA to support climate risk management strategies, it involves, among other things, upscaling organic is in the process of instituting structures such as farming, sequestering organic carbon, improving soil the County Climate Change Policy, which is in its structure and fertility, and supporting water harvesting beginning stages. A Climate Change Unit is also under and conservation facilities and structures. 36 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 8. Works Cited Alstrup, L., Söegaard, K. & Wesibierg, M.R. (2015). GoK. (2018). Nyamira County Integrated Development Effects of maturity and harvest season of grassclover Plan 2018-2023. Government of Kenya, Nairobi. silage and of forage-to-concentrate ratio on milk production of dairy cows. J. Dairy Sci., 99: 328-340. Gok (2019). Agricultural Sector Development Support Program II Baseline Survey Report, Ministry ASDSP. (2014). Nyamira County. Ministry of of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Government of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Government of Kenya, Nairobi. Kenya, Nairobi. KIPPRA. (2017). Agricultural Sector Polices and Auma, J.O. (2018). USAID Kenya Crops and Dairy Climate Change in Kenya: Nexus between Research Market Systems Activity technical report: Dairy Value and Practice. KIPPRA Working Paper No. 29 2017. Chain Assessment Report. USAID, Kenya. KMD. (2020). State of the Climate in Kenya 2020. County Government of Nyamira (2013). Nyamira County First Integrated Development Plan 2013– KNBS. (2016). 2015/2016 Kenya Integrated 2017. Government of Kenya, Nairobi. Household Budget Survey (KIHBS). Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Nairobi, Kenya. County Government of Nyamira. (2018). Nyamira County Integrated Development Plan 2018-2023. KNBS (2009). Kenya Census Report. Government of Kenya, Nairobi. KNBS. (2019). Kenya Population and Housing Census Ebeid, T.A., Suzuki, T., & Sugiyama, T. (2012). Volume I. High temperature influences eggshell quality and calbindinD28k localization of eggshell gland and all KNBS. (2019). Kenya Population and Housing intestinal segments of laying hens. Poult. Sci, 91: Census: Volume II. 2282–2287. KNBS. (2015). Nyamira County Statistical Abstract. GoK. (2013). Nyamira County First Integrated Development Plan 2013– 2017. Government of Kenya, Mbwana, A.S.S., Ngode, L., Reddy, K.V.S & Sikora, Nairobi. R.A. (1998). A Guide to Growing Bananas in the Eastern Africa Highlands. ICIPE Science, Nairobi, GoK. (2014). Agricultural Sector Development Kenya. Support Program, Nyamira County. Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries. Government of Kenya, Nairobi. Nyamira County 37 9. Acknowledgements This study is the product of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives of Kenya (MoALFC), with assistance from the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the Consultative Group on International Research (CGIAR) Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), as part of the National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP), supported by the World Bank (WB). The document has been developed under the coordination of Evan Girvetz (Alliance of Bioversity-CIAT) and John Kimani (National Project Coordinator, NARIGP), under the technical leadership of Stephanie Jaquet and Caroline Mwongera with contributions from (in alphabetical order): Harold A.E. Achicanoy, Alejandra Esquivel, Aniruddha Ghosh, Dorcas Jalang’o, Dorcas Kalele, Stella Kasura, Ivy Kinyua, Victor Mugo, Jessica Mukiri, Wilson Nguru, Fridah Nyakundi, Ruth Odhiambo, Julian Ramirez-Villegas. Infographics, layout and design: Sherry Adisa (independent consultant) Editors: Annalese Duprey, Courtney Jallo, Vincent Johnson, Kathryn Kandra, Megan Mayzelle Stephanie Pentz, We acknowledge the contribution of the NARIGP team: David Munyi, Elizabeth Moraa. We also express gratitude to the following institutions for providing information to this study: Nyamira County Departments (Agriculture Livestock and Fisheries; Environment, Water, Energy, Mining and Natural resources), the National Environmental Management Authority, The Meteorological department, private-sector organizations (Mato Baraka Farm Enterprises, Kilimo Bora Public-Private Partnership), producer organizations, value chain traders and farmers’ representatives (indigenous vegetable, local chicken, dairy cow, and banana value chains), farmers’ groups (Rianyanga Women Group and Egesieri Youth Group) and cooperatives (Borabu Farmers’ Cooperative Union, and Hobanapo Cooperative Society). This document should be cited as: MoALFC. 2021. Climate Risk Profile for Nyamira County. Kenya County Climate Risk Profile Series. The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives (MoALFC), Nairobi, Kenya. 38 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 10. Annexes 10.1 Glossary Absolute poverty: “Absolute poverty” measures poverty in Food poverty: The inability to acquire or consume an adequate relation to the amount of income necessary to meet the basic quantity of food in socially acceptable ways: households and needs of a household, such as food, clothing, and shelter individuals whose monthly adult equivalent food consumption (KNBS, 2018). expenditure per person is less than KfzSh 1,954 in rural and peri-urban areas and less than KSh 2,551 in core-urban areas, Adaptation: Adjustment in agro-ecosystems in response respectively, are considered to be food poor or live in “food to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which poverty” (KNBS, 2018). moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Greenhouse Gases: Atmospheric gases responsible for Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust its causing global warming and climate change. The major characteristics in order to expand its range under existing greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO ), methane (CH ), climate variability and future climate change. 2 4and nitrous oxide (N O). Less prevalent but very powerful 2 Climate change: A change in the state of the climate that can greenhouse gases are hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, be identified, for example by using statistical tests, by changes and sulfur hexafluoride (SF ).6 in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that Heat stress: A negative relationship between the net amount persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. of energy flowing from an animal’s body to its surrounding Climate change may be due to natural internal processes environment and the amount of heat energy produced by the or external forces such as modulations of the solar cycles, animal. This imbalance may be caused by many environmental volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in factors, like sunlight, thermal irradiation, air temperature, the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2018). humidity, and movement, as well as animal characteristics Climate risk: The potential for consequences when something like species, metabolism, and thermoregulatory mechanisms of value is at stake and when the outcome is uncertain, (Ebeid et., 2012). recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as Mitigation: In the context of climate change, human probability that hazardous events will occur or that trends will interventions to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of be multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur. greenhouse gases, such as the following: using fossil fuels Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and more efficiently for electricity generation, switching to solar hazards (IPCC, 2018). energy or wind power from fossil fuels for industrial processes, Climate hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or and expanding forests and other “sinks” to remove greater human-induced physical event, trend, or impact that may amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as Perception: The process by which we receive information damage and losses of property, infrastructure, livelihoods, or stimuli from our environment and transform them into service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources psychological awareness. (IPCC,2018). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): Climate variability: Variations in the mean state and other Four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by climate-related statistics such as standard deviations or the the IPCC for its AR5. The four RCPs – RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, occurrence of extremes on all spatial and temporal scales and RCP8.5 – are named after a possible range of radiative beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC, 2018). forcing values in the year 2100 of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2, Climate-smart agriculture: Agriculture that sustainably respectively. increases productivity and resilience, reduces or removes Resilience: The ability of a system and its component parts to greenhouse gases, and enhances the achievement of national anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects food security and development goals. of a hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner. Dependency ratio: The ratio of individuals in a population Vulnerability: The degree to which a geophysical, biological, who are in the dependent age group under age 15 or over age and socioeconomic system are susceptible to and unable 65, to those in the economically productive age group aged to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including 15 to 64. For instance, a child dependency ratio of 0.45 means variability and extremes. there are 45 children for every 100 working-age adults (PRB, 2019). Zai pits: Zai are holes usually excavated with a diameter of 0.3- 0.6 m and 0.3 m deep”. The holes harvest rain water at farm level and have the potential to boost soil water holding capacity by up to 5 times while collecting up to 25% of the runoff in the immediate area surrounding the hole. Nyamira County 39 Prepared by