Annual Trends and Outlook Report 20 23 AFRICAN FOOD SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION AND THE POST-MALABO AGENDA Edited by John M. Ulimwengu, Ebenezer Miezah Kwofie, and Julia Collins About ReSAKSS | www.resakss.org Established in 2006 under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) supports efforts to promote evidence- and outcome-based policy planning and implementation. In particular, ReSAKSS provides data and related analytical and knowledge products to facilitate CAADP benchmarking, review, and mutual learning processes. AKADEMIYA2063 leads the work of ReSAKSS in partnership with the African Union Commission, the African Union Development Agency-NEPAD (AUDA-NEPAD), and leading regional economic communities (RECs). AKADEMIYA2063’s mission is to provide data, policy analysis, and capacity strengthening support to enable African Union (AU) Member States to achieve economic transformation and shared prosperity in support of AU’s Agenda 2063. ReSAKSS is funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Previously, ReSAKSS also received funding from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Netherlands (MFAN), the UK Department for International Development (DFID), and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). DOI: 10.54067/9781737916482 ISBN: 9781737916482 Recommended Citation Ulimwengu, J. M., Kwofie, E.M., and Collins, J. (Eds.) 2023. African Food Systems Transformation and the Post-Malabo Agenda. ReSAKSS 2023 Annual Trends and Outlook Report. Kigali and Washington, DC: AKADEMIYA2063 and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). This is a peer-reviewed publication. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by AKADEMIYA2063 or IFPRI. Copyright Copyright 2023 AKADEMIYA2063. Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (CC-BY-NC-ND), available at http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Editors John M. Ulimwengu, Ebenezer Miezah Kwofie, and Julia Collins Contributors Prince Agyemang, PhD Student, McGill University Raphael Aidoo, PhD Student, McGill University Gideon Senyo Amevinya, Research Associate, House of Mentoring and Research Resources Amare Ayalew, Manager of Partnership for Aflatoxin Control in Africa, Africa Union Commission Julia Collins, Senior Associate Scientist, AKADEMIYA2063 Marie-Anne Dessureault, Undergraduate Student, McGill University Julius Ecuru, Principal Scientist and Manager, International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology Simone Faas, Survey Management Specialist, ICF Ismael Fofana, Senior Economist, Ministry of Economic and Finance, Republic of Guinea Keith Fuglie, Senior Economist, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture Katrin Glatzel, Senior Researcher and Program Lead, Center for Development Research, University of Bonn Delia Grace, Professor, Food Safety Systems, Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich Paul Maina Guthiga, Senior Scientist, AKADEMIYA2063 Jessica Heckert, Research Fellow, IFPRI Fatima Olanike Kareem, Senior Scientist, AKADEMIYA2063 Ebenezer Miezah Kwofie, Assistant Professor and Co-Director, Integrated Food & Bioprocess Engineering Program, McGill University Amos Laar, Professor of Public Health Nutrition, University of Ghana Racine Ly, Director, Data Management, Digital Products and Technology, AKADEMIYA2063 Lea. V. Magne-Domgho, Senior Associate Scientist, AKADEMIYA2063 Tsitsi Makombe, Director, External Relations, AKADEMIYA2063 Hazel Malapit, Senior Research Coordinator, IFPRI Greenwell Matchaya, Senior International Researcher –Economics, International Water Management Institute Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Neli Georgieva Mihaylova, Lead Technical Officer, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Emily Myers, research analyst, IFPRI Silver Nanema, Research Associate, University of Ghana Agnes Quisumbing, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Kalyani Raghunathan, Research Fellow, IFPRI Greg Seymour, Research Fellow, IFPRI Wondwosen Tefera, Senior Associate Scientist, AKADEMIYA2063 John Ulimwengu, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Fleur Wouterse, Deputy Director, Office of Emergencies and Resilience, FAO Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu, Director, Knowledge Systems, AKADEMIYA2063 Amara Zongo, Research Fellow, Global Center on Adaptation Cover design: Joan Stephens/JKS Design and Shirong Gao/IFPRI AFRICAN FOOD SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION AND THE POST-MALABO AGENDA Annual Trends and Outlook Report 20 23 ii resakss.org http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report iii Contents LIST OF TABLES vi LIST OF FIGURES vii LIST OF BOXES ix ABBREVIATIONS x ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xii FOREWORD xiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xiv 1| INTRODUCTION 1 John M. Ulimwengu, Ebenezer Miezah Kwofie, Julia Collins, and Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu 2| SEVEN YEARS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MALABO DECLARATION: MAKING SENSE OF THE MALABO THEORY OF CHANGE 7 John M. Ulimwengu, Wondwosen Tefera, and Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu 3| FOOD SYSTEM DIAGNOSTICS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS: THE MALAWI CASE 36 Greenwell Matchaya and Paul Guthiga 4| COMMITTING TO TRANSFORM FOOD SYSTEMS: RESPONSIVENESS OF FOOD SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION PLEDGES BY AFRICAN GOVERNMENTS TO THE WHO PRIORITY FOOD SYSTEMS POLICIES AND FOOD-RELATED CAADP BIENNIAL REVIEW PERFORMANCE CATEGORIES 54 Silver Nanema, Gideon Senyo Amevinya, and Amos Laar 5| 2023 ATOR: THE CALL FOR NUTRITION-SMART FOOD SYSTEMS 83 John M. Ulimwengu, Lea V. Magne Domgho, and Julia Collins 6| A PARADIGM SHIFT IN FOOD SAFETY FOR AFRICA 106 Amare Ayalew, Fatima Olanike Kareem, and Delia Grace 7| A FORENSIC FRAMEWORK AND DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR HARMONIZED AND HOLISTIC FOOD SYSTEM RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS 121 Prince Agyemang, Ebenezer M. Kwofie, Marie-Anne Dessureault, and John M. Ulimwengu iv resakss.org 8| ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE ADAPTATION FOR RESILIENT FOOD SYSTEMS IN AFRICA 140 Fleur Wouterse, Ismael Fofana, Racine Ly, and Amara Zongo 9| GENDER AND FOOD SYSTEMS: AVENUES FOR TRANSFORMATION? 156 Agnes Quisumbing, Jessica Heckert, Hazel Malapit, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Kalyani Raghunathan, Greg Seymour, Simone Faas, and Emily Myers 10| BIOECONOMY: A PATH TO AFRICAN FOOD SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION 173 Raphael Aidoo, Ebenezer Miezah Kwofie, Katrin Glatzel, and Julius Ecuru 11| DATA CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOOD SYSTEMS TRANSFORMATION IN AFRICA 189 Greenwell Matchaya, Tsitsi Makombe, and Neli Georgieva Mihaylova 12| INVESTING IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INNOVATION FOR SUSTAINABLE, PRODUCTIVITY-LED AGRICULTURAL GROWTH 210 Keith O. Fuglie 13| TRACKING KEY CAADP INDICATORS AND IMPLEMENTATION PROCESSES 228 Julia Collins, Wondwosen Tefera, and Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu 14| CONCLUSION: TOWARD RESILIENT AND SUSTAINABLE AFRICAN FOOD SYSTEMS 247 John M. Ulimwengu, Ebenezer Miezah Kwofie, and Julia Collins ANNEXES| CORE CAADP M&E AND SUPPLEMENTARY INDICATORS 250 Annex 1a: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.1.1 253 Annex 1b: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.1.2 254 Annex 1c: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.1 255 Annex 1d: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.2A 256 Annex 1e: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.2B 257 Annex 1f: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.2C 258 Annex 1g: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.2.3 259 Annex 1h: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.1A 260 Annex 1i: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.1B 261 Annex 1j: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.3 262 Annex 1k: Level 1—Agriculture’s Contribution to Economic Growth and Inclusive Development, Indicator 1.3.4 263 Contents Continued http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report v Annex 2a: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.1 264 Annex 2b: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.2 265 Annex 2c: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.3 266 Annex 2d: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.4 267 Annex 2e: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.5A 268 Annex 2f: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.5B 269 Annex 2g: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.5C 270 Annex 2h: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.5D 271 Annex 2i: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.1.5E 272 Annex 2j: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.2.1A 273 Annex 2k: Level 2—Agricultural Transformation and Sustained Inclusive Agricultural Growth, Indicator 2.2.1B 274 Annex 3a: Level 3—Strengthening Systemic Capacity to Deliver Results, Indicator 3.5.1 275 Annex 3b: Level 3—Strengthening Systemic Capacity to Deliver Results, Indicator 3.5.2 276 Annex 3c: Level 3—Strengthening Systemic Capacity to Deliver Results, Indicator 3.5.3 277 Annex 3d: Level 3—Strengthening Systemic Capacity to Deliver Results 278 Annex 4: Country Categories by Geographic Regions, Economic Classification, and Regional Economic Communities 287 Annex 5: Distribution of Countries by Year of Signing CAADP Compact and Level of CAADP Implementation Reached by End of 2015 290 Annex 6: Distribution of Countries in Formulating First-Generation Investment Plan (NAIP1.0) and Second-Generation Investment Plan (NAIP2.0) Reached by September of 2022 291 Annex 7a: Supplementary Data Tables 292 REFERENCES 305 vi resakss.org T2.1 Number of Malabo BR Performance Categories and Indicators 12 T2.2 Correlation Among Indicators on Recommitting to CAADP and Mutual Accountability, 2015–2020 18 T2.3 Equations with at Least 50% MC 19 T2.4 Significant Drivers of Africa’s Agricultural Transformation 20 TA2.1 Malabo BR Indicators and Impact Pathways 26 TA2.2 Number of Valid Observations by Indicator for All Reporting Countries 29 TA2.3 Summary of Performance in CAADP Process and Mutual Accountability, 2015–2020 30 TA2.4 Correlation Between Recommitting to CAADP Process and Mutual Accountability and Progress Made in Other Malabo Commitments, 2015–2020 31 T3.1 Current Status of Malawi’s Food System Captured in Supra-Indicators 42 T3.2 Main Food System Challenges and Potential Game Changers 47 T3.3 Current Policies, Gaps, and Implications 51 T4.1 Responsiveness of Commitments Pledged by African Heads of State to Select CAADP Biennial Review Performance Categories and to the WHO’s Priority Policy Actions for Food Systems 62 T4.2 Responsiveness of Africa’s Commitments to Select CAADP Biennial Review Performance Categories 79 T5.1 National Energy and Nutrient Production, Market, and Household Adequacy, Senegal (2017–2018) 88 T5.2 Top Foods Contributing to Energy and Nutrient Intake, Senegal (National Average) 90 T5.3 Top Food Products Contributing to Energy and Nutrient Production, Senegal (National Average) 90 T5.4 National Energy and Nutrient Production, Market, and Household Adequacy, Rwanda (2016) 95 T5.5 Top Food Contributing to Energy and Micronutrient Intake, Rwanda (National Average) 97 T5.6 Top Food Products Contributing to Energy and Micronutrient Production, Rwanda (National Average) 97 T7.1 Resilience Domain Aggregation, Respective Ratings, and Food System Scale of Importance 127 T7.2 Selected Indicators for the Evaluation of the Food Security/Nutrition, Environmental, and Socioeconomic Dimensions of the Sustainability of the African Food System 130 T8.1 Microregion Climate Risk Typology 153 T9.1 Distribution of Papers by Study Country 159 T9.2 Relationships Between Empowerment and Food Systems Outcomes, Africa Studies 160 List of Tables http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report vii T9.3 The Reach, Benefit, Empower, and Transform (RBET) Framework 166 T11.1 Data Needs for Food System Action Tracks and Levers of Change 193 T11.2 Indicators for Food System Outcomes, Activities, and Drivers 194 T11.3 Selected Data Initiatives and Databases: Coverage and Limitations from a Food Systems Perspective 204 T12.1 Agricultural Output and Total Factor Productivity Growth in African Countries, 2001-2021 215 T12.2 Returns to Agricultural Research Across Regions and Commodities 217 T12.3 Percentage of Food Crop Area Planted with Modern Varieties in African Countries, 2016-2020 218 T12.4 Public Agricultural R&D Investment Across Regions 219 T12.5 The Private Sector’s Role in Agricultural R&D 221 T12.6 Agricultural Research and Extension Capacities in African Countries 223 T13.1 CAADP Results Framework and CAADP Biennial Review and Africa Agriculture Transformation Scorecard, Number of Indicators by Level or Commitment 230 T13.2 CAADP Results Framework Indicators 231 T13.3 Number of New Performance Categories and New Indicators, by Malabo Commitment 233 List of Figures F2.1 BR Benchmark (Minimum Scores by BR Cycle) 10 F2.2 Africa Agriculture Transformation Score and BR Benchmarks (by BR Cycle) 10 F2.3 Malabo Declaration Impact Pathway 11 F2.4 Number of Parameters Required (by Thematic Area and BR Cycle) 13 FB2.1 Data Reporting Rate (Percentage) 14 F2.5 Progress in Indicators Under Thematic Area 1 (I1.1, I1.2, and I1.3) 15 F2.6 Progress in Indicators Under Thematic Area 7 (I7.1, I7.2, and I7.3) 16 F2.7 Network of Significant Total Effects 21 F3.1 Summary of the Process of Diagnostics in Malawi 39 F3.2 The Selection Criteria for Food Systems Indicators for Examination 40 viii resakss.org F3.3 National Policy Gaps Relevant for Food Systems in Malawi 50 F4.1 Change in Overweight/Obesity Prevalence Among Key Populations (Women and Children) in Africa South of the Sahara from the 1990s to 2022 55 F4.2 Policy Opportunity to Food System Transformation 57 F4.3 A Proposed Framework for Food Systems Transformation 61 F5.1 Energy and Nutrient Production, Market, and Household Adequacy, Senegal (Percent) 89 F5.2 Income Elasticities of Demand for Energy and Key Micronutrients, Rural and Urban Senegal 91 F5.3 Elasticities of Demand for Energy and Micro-Nutrients with Respect to Food Prices, Rural and Urban Senegal 92 F5.4 Mapping of Nutrient Adequacy at the Department Level, Senegal 93 F5.5 Energy and Nutrient Production, Market, and Household Adequacy, Rwanda (Percent) 96 F5.6 Income Elasticities of Demand for Energy and Key Nutrients, Rural and Urban Rwanda 98 F5.7 Elasticities of Demand for Energy and Nutrients with Respect to Food Prices, Rural and Urban Rwanda 99 F5.8 Mapping of Nutrient Adequacy at the District Level, Rwanda 100 F6.1 The Food Safety Life Cycle 109 F6.2 National Food Safety Capacity Derived from World Health Organization International Health Regulations (IHR) 110 F6.3 Average Score of AU Member States in the Three Africa Food Safety Index Indicators in 2019 and 2021 115 F6.4 Status of AU Member States as Scored by Food Safety Indicators in 2018 and 2020 116 F6.5 Situation of Staff Capacity in AU Member States (16 Responded) for Food Safety Data Generation and Risk Assessment 119 F7.1 Exogenous Drivers, Shocks, and Stressors Influencing the African Food System 123 F7.2 Methodological Framework 125 F7.3 Forensic Framework for Food System Assessment 128 F7.4 Correlation Between the Value Chain Dataset and Selected Indicators 131 F7.5 Snapshot of the Logical Implications of the Constructed Scenarios Against the Business-as-Usual Case 132 F7.6 Snapshots of the Unfolding Futures from the Constructed Scenarios 133 F7.7 Logical Flow of Events Across the Different Subregions on the African Continent 134 F7.8 Logical Flow of Implications Across Subregions Under the Scenario of Increased Agricultural Credit 135 F7.9 Snapshot of the Effect of the Stylized Scenarios Between Baseline (2020) and Endline (2030) Reference Years 136 Figures Continued http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report ix F7.10 Dashboard for the F-ROAS Decision Support System 137 F8.1 Kenya Climate Anomaly Analysis, 2021 143 F8.2 Mali Climate Anomaly Analysis, 2021 143 F8.3 Climate Risk and its Components 144 F8.4 Agricultural Yield Changes Under Climate Change, 2020–2050 145 F8.5 Percentage Change in Agricultural GDP Under Business-as-usual and Climate Change Scenarios 149 F8.6 Percentage Change in GDP Under Business-as-usual and Climate Change Scenarios 149 F8.7 Percentage Change in Employment Rate Under Climate Change 149 F8.8 Percentage Change in National Poverty Rate Under Climate Change 150 F8.9 Additional Share of Cultivated Area that Needs to be Covered by Climate-Smart Agriculture Strategies to Compensate for Climate Change 150 F8.10 Economywide Effects of Climate-Smart Agriculture Strategies in Kenya and Mali (%) 151 F8.11 Drivers of Adoption of On-Farm Adaptation Strategies 151 F8.12 Adaptation and Food Insecurity 152 F8.13 Microregion Climate Risk Maps 153 F9.1 Gender and Food Systems Framework 158 F9.2 Distribution of Topics in Studies on Africa (N = 18) 160 F9.3 Distribution of Project Impacts on Women’s and Men’s Empowerment Scores, Empowerment Status, and Household Gender Parity, African Projects in GAAP2 and JP RWEE Portfolios 168 F10.1 Structural Flow of the Chapter 175 F10.2 Spatial Distribution of Bioeconomy Research in Africa 177 F10.3 Keywords from Bioeconomy Studies in Africa 177 F10.4 Augmenting Bioeconomy Development with Policy Modeling, Sustainability Assessment, and Digital Intelligence 187 F12.1 Decomposing Agricultural Growth 212 F12.2 Increases in Total Factor Productivity as a Source of Global Agricultural Growth 213 F12.3 Sources of Agricultural Growth: All Developing Countries Versus Sub-Saharan Africa, 2001-2021 214 F13.1 Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, Constant 2015 US Dollars, Annual Average Percentage Change, 2003–2022 235 x resakss.org F13.2 Annual Household Consumption Expenditure Per Capita, Constant 2015 US Dollars, 2003–2022 236 F13.3 Prevalence of Undernourishment, Annual Average Percentage Change, 2003–2021 236 F13.4 Prevalence of Underweight, Stunting, and Wasting in Africa, Percentage of Children Younger than Five Years, 2014–2021 Average 237 F13.5 Cereal Import Dependency Ratio, Percent of Total Domestic Cereal Supply, 2003–2019 237 F13.6 Employment Rate, Percent of Labor Force Aged 15 to 64 Years, Annual Average Percentage Change, 2003–2022 238 F13.7 Poverty Headcount Ratio, Poverty Line of US$2.15 (2017 PPP) Per Day, Percent of Population, 2003–2020 239 F13.8 African Agriculture, Average Annual Value Added, US$ Billions (Constant 2015 US$), by Time Period and Geographic Region 240 F13.9 Agriculture Value Added, Average Percentage Share of Africa’s Total Agriculture Value Addition for Period from 2014 to 2022, by Country Grouping 240 F13.10 Agriculture Value Added, Annual Average Growth, Percent, 2003–2022 241 F13.11 National Agricultural Value Added, Annual Average Growth, Percent, by Time Period 242 F13.12 Agricultural Labor (left panel) and Agricultural Land (right panel) Productivity in Africa, US$ (Constant 2015 US$), by Time Period 242 F13.13 Intra-African Agricultural Exports, Percentage Share of Total Intra-African Agricultural Exports for Period From 2014 to 2022, by Country Grouping 243 F13.14 Government Agriculture Expenditure, Average Annual Percentage Change, 2003–2022 244 F13.15 Share of Government Agriculture Expenditure in Total Government Expenditure, Percent, 2008–2022, By Country 245 F13.16 Government Agriculture Expenditure as a Share of Agriculture Value Added, Average, Percent, 2003–2022 245 List of Boxes B2.1 Proportion of BR Parameters Reported 14 B5.1 Roles of Key Nutrients Examined in the Chapter 85 B8.1 Climate-Smart Production Strategies 146 Figures Continued http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report xi AATS Africa Agriculture Transformation Scorecard AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AfDB African Development Bank AIH Africa Information Highway AIP Affordable Input Program AME adult male equivalent ASF animal-source foods ATOR Annual Trends and Outlook Report ATVET4W agricultural technical vocational education and training for women AU African Union AUC African Union Commission AUDA-NEPAD African Union Development Agency-New Partnership for Africa’s Development BMGF Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation BR Biennial Review CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme CEN-SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States CGE computable general equilibrium COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CSO civil society organization DHS demographic and health surveys EAC East African Community ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States f-RESUS forensic framework for resilience and sustainability FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAOSTAT FAO Statistical Database FBD foodborne disease FDI foreign direct investment FEWS-NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FS-ROAS Food System Rapid Overview Assessment using Scenarios FSSA Food Safety Strategy for Africa FTF Feed the Future GAAP2 Gender, Agriculture, and Assets Project, Phase 2 GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas GPS Global Positioning System ICT information and communication technology IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development ILO International Labour Organization JP RWEE UN Joint Programme on Rural Women’s Economic Empowerment JSR Joint Sector Review LSMS Living Standards Measurement Study LST land surface temperature MI market inclusion ML machine learning NAIP national agriculture investment plan NAP National Adaptation Plan NCD noncommunicable disease NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NGO nongovernmental organization Abbreviations xii resakss.org NHA nutrient household adequacy NMA nutrient market adequacy NPCA NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency NSO National Statistics Office NPA nutrient production adequacy PPP purchasing power parity R&D research and development REC regional economic community ReSAKSS Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System RF results framework SADC Southern African Development Community SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SEM structural equation modeling SME small and mid-size enterprise SPARS Strategic Plan for Agricultural and Rural Statistics SPS sanitary and phytosanitary SSA Africa south of the Sahara STI science, technology, and innovation TFP total factor productivity UMA Union du Maghreb Arabe UN United Nations UNFSS United Nations Food Systems Summit UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development WASH water, sanitation, and hygiene WDI World Bank World Development Indicators WEAI Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization Abbreviations Continued http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report xiii Acknowledgments The 2023 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) has benefited from the research and dedication of the authors and contributors whose work is presented here. We thank Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu and Wondwosen Tefera for overall coordination of the production process and editorial support. We also thank Wondwosen Tefera for managing the processing of data on CAADP indicators and coordinating the peer review process. We express our gratitude to the anonymous reviewers whose expertise enhanced the final report. This report was produced under the overall leadership of Ousmane Badiane, who provided valuable guidance and feedback. The ReSAKSS team—Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu, Paul Guthiga, Greenwell Matchaya, and Mbaye Yade—collected and updated data on CAADP indicators for this report. We thank Shivani Patel for assistance to the peer review process, and Tsitsi Makombe for general guidance and support. IFPRI’s Communications and Public Affairs Division provided excellent editorial support to produce this report under the leadership of Claire Davis and Pamela Stedman-Edwards. Joan Stephens’s contribu- tions for the design and layout of the report are gratefully acknowledged. Finally, we would also like to acknowledge the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) for providing financial support for the 2023 ATOR. xiv resakss.org Foreword Twenty years ago in 2003, African leaders launched the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) as a shared continentwide framework for agricultural development. With its emphasis on evidence-based planning, inclusive policy processes, and mutual accountability in support of agriculture-led growth, CAADP has helped to galvanize broad recognition of the importance of agriculture for Africa’s development goals and the need for multistakeholder partnerships to advance progress. With the 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods, African leaders reaffirmed their commitment to the CAADP principles and values and expanded the CAADP agenda to encompass goals in the areas of poverty, hunger, trade, and resilience, among others. The Malabo Declaration also called for a continentwide Biennial Review of progress toward the commitments of the Declaration. With the approach of 2025, the endline for the Malabo Declaration commit- ments, African leaders are about to embark on the process of designing the post-Malabo Declaration agenda for CAADP implementation. Africa is in a remarkably different position today from that of 2003 and even from that of 2014. Since the early 2000s, Africa has made tremendous progress compared to the decade before CAADP in terms of economic and agricultural growth: Africa has had the world’s fastest agricultural growth rate since 2000, and GDP has more than doubled. In addition, the prevalence of poverty has dropped by around one-third, and child malnutrition has declined steadily. However, progress has slowed since the mid-2010s, with decelerating economic growth and a worrying rise in the prevalence of undernourishment. The COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 demonstrated the vulnerability of the continent to international health and commodity market shocks. The most recent Biennial Review report, released in early 2022, showed that the continent is not on track to achieving the Malabo Declaration commitments. It has become increasingly clear that Africa must urgently reinvigorate progress to avoid losing the ground gained since 2003. Another change that has occurred since the establishment of CAADP is the rapidly growing understanding of the importance of applying a food systems lens to development questions—that is, using a holistic perspective that considers the range of interlinked actors and activities constituting the food system. Africa engaged extensively with the United Nations Food Systems Summit of 2021, and the majority of African countries developed national pathways to food systems transformation which are currently being implemented. With the Malabo Declaration, African leaders already envisioned a food systems approach, looking beyond agricultural production to emphasize actions and goals along the agrifood value chain. The post-Malabo agenda for CAADP implementation must further deepen the focus to respond to emerging issues and meet the needs of sustainable food systems transformation in a context of accelerating climate change and multifaceted stressors and shocks. The 2023 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) aims to provide knowledge and evidence in support of the design of a robust and comprehensive post-Malabo agenda. The report looks back on implementation of the Malabo Declaration and assesses the current status on CAADP indicators; examines key food systems components and cross-cutting issues; presents methodologies for comprehensive assessments of food systems; and provides recommendations for the design of the post-Malabo agenda. The report emphasizes the importance of research and innovation as well as data and analysis to inform food systems transformation strategies. Despite the impressive progress since 2003, Africa in 2023 faces both persis- tent and new challenges. The next phase of CAADP implementation must build on the successes of the past and help Africa to recapture its growth momentum to accelerate progress toward its goals. It is our hope that the 2023 ATOR will contribute to the development of a robust agenda that will provide a framework for sustainable food systems transformation for years to come. Ousmane Badiane Executive Chairperson AKADEMIYA2063 H.E. Josefa L. C. Sacko Commissioner, Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment African Union Commission http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report xv The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) was launched in 2003 as a shared continentwide framework for agriculture-led growth and development. The CAADP agenda was broadened and reinvigorated in 2014 with the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods, under which African leaders recommitted to the CAADP goals and principles and extended the agenda to encompass new commitments in areas including poverty, hunger, trade, resilience, and mutual accountability, with targets to be achieved by 2025. In 2023, after two decades of CAADP implementation, Africa’s leaders are beginning to envision the next phase of CAADP after the end of the Malabo Declaration commitment period. The continental and global context today is markedly different from those in which the earlier phases of CAADP implementation were designed. Africa has made substantial progress since the launch of CAADP in terms of economic and agricultural growth and poverty and hunger reduction, but a recent deceleration of progress combined with the devastating impacts of global shocks have created an urgent need to recapture momentum and accelerate Africa’s progress toward meeting its goals. In addition, awareness of the interconnected nature of food systems has increased in Africa and across the globe. Africa engaged closely with the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS), including by developing the Africa Common Position on Food Systems at the continental level and establishing country-level pathways for food systems transformation. The increasing complexity of Africa’s food systems has made the need to craft development strategies through a food systems lens all the more relevant. The post-Malabo agenda will thus need to help Africa return to a rapid growth path while accounting for current challenges and uncertainties across the food system. Just as the original CAADP agenda and the Malabo Declaration were informed by data and knowledge, the design of the post-Malabo agenda must be guided by timely, high-quality evidence on key development issues facing the continent today. The goal of the 2023 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) is to provide a range of evidence on key issues in food systems transformation to aid policymakers in designing a robust and comprehensive post-Malabo agenda. The ATOR looks back on the successes and lessons learned from CAADP implementation to date, discusses the current status of CAADP indicators, introduces methodologies and tools for food systems assessments, provides detailed evidence on key food systems components and cross-cutting issues, and offers recommendations to guide the design of the post-Malabo agenda. Stocktaking on the CAADP/Malabo Agenda A review of the evolution in the CAADP Results Framework indicators since the 2003 launch of CAADP demonstrates the scale of the progress achieved on multiple fronts. Gross domestic product has nearly doubled, poverty rates have declined by around one-third, and child malnutrition has declined steadily. Government agricultural investments have increased and agricultural output has grown rapidly, driven in part by increases in land and labor productivity. Africa has also made significant and concrete efforts to adhere to the CAADP values of evidence-based policymaking and inclusive design and review processes, and the vast majority of African countries are participating in the continentwide Biennial Review of progress called for in the Malabo Declaration. However, there is also significant cause for concern about Africa’s development trajectory. Robust progress in economic growth and poverty reduction have decelerated since the mid-2010s, and progress in reducing the prevalence of undernourishment reversed. Despite increases in agricultural expenditures and growth, the original CAADP targets of a 10 percent public agricultural expenditure share and a 6 percent annual agricultural growth rate have not been achieved at the continen- tal level. The most recent Biennial Review report of 2022 showed that Africa is also off-track to achieve the additional Malabo Declaration commitments. An empirical estimation of the relationships between CAADP Biennial Review indicators suggests that committing to and implementing CAADP principles and values positively influences development outcomes in some cases, but also highlights unexpected results or lack of impacts in other cases. The design of the post-Malabo agenda should be informed by a detailed examination of the theory of change underpinning CAADP as well as further analysis of the Executive Summary xvi resakss.org relationships between CAADP indicators. This will require greater investments in data covering the entire food system to guide strategy design and assess the translation of strategies to action. Methodologies and Tools for Food Systems Assessments Food systems are inherently complex and dynamic, constituting a wide range of actors and activities spanning agricultural production, processing, distribution, consumption, and disposal, as well as the linkages and dependencies between activities and the broader environmental and social context. Food systems policies must take into account synergies and trade-offs between outcomes in different food systems components, and should be grounded in detailed under- standing of food system characteristics, structure, drivers and challenges. The 2023 ATOR offers several approaches to food systems assessments which can be used to meet different analytical needs. First, food systems diagnostics is an approach that examines the compo- nents and interdependencies within a food system, describing dynamics and highlighting strengths, weaknesses, and challenges. It can play an important role in guiding food systems transformation strategies, benchmarking and tracking changes in food systems, and identifying drivers of transformation. The approach is based on the identification and categorization of indicators capturing food systems activities; qualitative discussions with local stakeholders on food systems characteristics, drivers, and challenges; and assessment of current food systems policy coverage and policy gaps. It is carried out as an iterative process involving an inclusive group of food systems stakeholders. The assessment provides a detailed view of the food systems landscape and can serve as a backdrop to identify the types of policies needed to advance goals and the potential constraints and synergies that policy design should consider. While food systems diagnostic analysis offers a comprehensive overview of current food system components, drivers and gaps, some purposes may require a more forward-looking approach to assess the expected outcomes of alternative interventions. This can be carried out through a proposed forensic framework for resilience and sustainability, which allows the estimation of future evolution of food system indicators. The framework combines a focus on both resilience and sustainability, two interlinked and interdependent concepts that show important synergies. Decision-makers can use the framework to select outcome indicators of interest and assess the impacts of food system drivers on outcomes using machine learning models. The approach allows for analysis of potential scenarios and the identification of trade-offs between different outcomes. Key Issues in Food Systems Transformation Health, Nutrition, and Food Safety A central goal of any food system is to ensure adequate and healthy diets for all in a sustainable manner. Meeting this goal requires concerted efforts both at the level of broad policy frameworks and of targeted interventions to address local, context-specific food security and nutrition challenges. Given the intersections of national, continental, and global policy frameworks around food systems trans- formation, accelerating progress toward nutrition goals and other food systems commitments requires attention to policy coherence, or ensuring that policies and actions avoid undermining the goals of other policies and take advantage of potential synergies. The ATOR assesses the alignment of the commitments for food systems transformation actions made by African countries as part of the UNFSS with the seven food systems priority policy actions proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) to improve nutrition, as well as their align- ment with selected CAADP Biennial Review performance categories. The UNFSS commitments are partially aligned with both frameworks, with a higher degree of alignment with the Biennial Review than with the WHO priority policy actions. The design of the post-Malabo agenda should consider placing greater emphasis on actions to improve the food environment to promote healthy and nutritious diets as expressed in the WHO priority policy actions. At a more granular level, food systems transformation efforts should take nutrition into account at every stage from production through consumption. Africa faces widespread and severe micronutrient deficiencies that have serious impacts on health and well-being. By examining the adequacy of production, market supply and consumption of a range of nutrients in two case study coun- tries, the ATOR demonstrates that nutrient adequacy gaps differ between and within countries, and by food system component—for example, the adequacy of nutrient production tends to exceed the adequacy of consumption, indicating loss of nutrients along the food value chain. Comparing adequacy levels in different food system segments can offer an indication of where nutrients http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report xvii are entering or leaving a food system and what types of interventions can be considered to improve nutrition. Strategies to increase the adequacy of nutrients at the production level include selecting crops based on their potential to fill key nutrient gaps as well as biofortification to enhance the nutrient content of crops. Strategies to increase nutrient adequacy at the market level include trade policies designed to facilitate imports of nutrient-rich crops, more efficient food supply chains to prevent food and nutrient loss, and industrial fortification to add nutrients to food products during processing. At the consumption level, households’ intake of nutrients can be improved by increasing financial access to food through income transfers or targeted price subsidies, as well as other interventions to increase physical access to markets. Another key facet of improving food security and nutrition is ensuring greater food safety. With a disproportionately high burden of foodborne diseases, Africa faces growing food safety risks and urgent needs to strengthen food safety systems. The rapidly increasing complexity of Africa’s food value chains and greater consumption of perishable foods are leading to growing food safety challenges that outpace the development of capacity to address them. African leaders are working at multiple scales to improve food safety systems, including through the recent development of the African Union Sanitary and Phytosanitary Policy Framework and the Food Safety Strategy for Africa as well as other conti- nental and regional frameworks and initiatives. Further efforts are required to address key gaps in Africa’s food safety system, including the ability to generate high-quality evidence to inform risk-based safety assessments and capacity to implement food safety control systems. Africa’s approach to food safety should evolve to incorporate a model of governance based on shared responsibilities, where partnerships and collaboration contribute to increasing food safety; greater investments in the generation, dissemination, and use of food safety data; a shift in the focus of food safety efforts from formal export trade only to domestic markets and informal food sectors; and improvements in human capacities and in sustainable funding for food safety efforts. Climate Change Adaptation and Bioeconomy Adoption Climate change is rapidly altering the context within which Africa’s food systems operate. Long-term changes in temperature and precipitation combined with increased frequency of drought, flood, and other extreme weather events will require adjustments in agricultural production as well as activities in other food systems components. Thus, efforts to advance food systems transformation must take into account the needs of food systems actors to adapt to the changing climate. While climate change is expected to have strong negative impacts on agriculture by reducing crop yields, intersectoral linkages will lead to broader economic growth declines and increases in poverty. Large-scale implementation of adaptive responses—i.e., climate-smart agriculture practices such as soil and water conservation and adoption of improved crop varieties—have the potential to counteract the negative effects of climate change on agricultural production and prevent broader economic impacts. However, achieving the required level of adoption will require extensive investments as well as interventions to increase producers’ adaptive capacity, for example by boosting human capital and building asset bases, with targeted outreach for female-headed households who may be less able to adopt adaptive practices and technologies. These efforts must be informed by a detailed understanding of local patterns of exposure and vulner- ability, which differ not only between but within countries. Climate-smart agriculture practices are part of a broader approach termed bioeconomy—a model that applies science, technology, and innovation for sustainable production and value addition based on biological resources. Greater bioeconomy adoption has the potential to facilitate climate change adaptation and drive broader improvements in environmental sustainability, food and nutrition security, and economic growth. A wide range of bioeconomy practices and innovations are already taking place in Africa, and several countries and regions have committed to further advancing bioeconomy by establishing stand-alone bioeconomy plans. However, numerous gaps remain, including uneven adoption of bioeconomy approaches throughout the continent, under- investment in research and development, and a lack of education and training opportunities to build human capacities in bioeconomy. The development of a continentwide bioeconomy strategy could help to harmonize and build synergies among national and regional efforts to enhance the contribution of bioeconomy to overall food systems transformation. Such a strategy would require detailed assessment of the current status of bioeconomy across the continent as well as an inclusive design process that invites the contributions of all food systems stakeholders. xviii resakss.org Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment While the relationship between food systems transformation and women’s empowerment is complex, there is evidence that women’s empowerment and gender equality have positive impacts on a number of desirable food systems outcomes, including child nutrition, household food security, and agricultural production and productivity. In contrast, the impacts of food systems transforma- tion on women’s empowerment and gender equality are not straightforward. Food systems transformation is generally expected to benefit food systems actors, but in some cases there is potential to deepen existing patterns of inequality. For example, efforts to increase value addition could exacerbate intrahousehold inequalities between men and women in contexts where men have control over lucrative value chain activities. It is therefore important to better understand the linkages between empowerment, equality, and food systems transformation activi- ties in order to avoid unintended impacts and craft effective gender-transformative food systems policies. Among other considerations, efforts to enhance women’s empowerment and promote gender equality should examine potential impacts on women’s workload, and should involve both men and women in shifting gender norms. Greater investments in gender-related data are important to inform policies and strategies for equitable food systems transformation. Data, Technology, and Innovation An important theme across the report is the vital need for knowledge and evidence to guide food systems policy design, implementation, and assessment. The generation of knowledge and evidence ultimately relies on the availability of timely, relevant, and high-quality data. Limited investments in data capacities have led to significant gaps in the availability of data to support food systems policymaking in Africa, including data quality challenges, inadequate data maintenance and dissemination, and lack of coverage of key food systems com- ponents and issues such as food processing, transportation, and distribution; food waste and loss; and diet quality. Current initiatives to increase the quality and coverage of data on Africa’s food systems are having an impact, but further efforts are required to increase investments in data capacities and tools, improve coordination between data generators and users, and raise funding allocations for data collection. Additionally, there is need for an exercise, potentially led and coordinated at the continental level, to define a common set of indicators to track and measure food systems activities and drivers. Another key cross-cutting area in food systems policy is the need for science, technology, and innovation to fuel productivity growth. Africa’s rapid agricultural growth during the past twenty years has been largely driven by the expansion of farmland, but sustaining increased output into the future will require technological advances allowing farmers to produce more with the same or fewer resources. At the agricultural production level, technological advances tend to be context-specific, such as the development of new crop varieties suited to local conditions, and thus require significant investments in research and development at the national level. For other food systems components such as processing and distribution, technologies may be transferrable from abroad, and governments can facilitate technological exchange by putting in place policies to promote foreign direct investment. Governments should also encourage greater private sector research and development by reducing restrictions on market participation and protecting intellectual property rights. Finally, farmers and other food systems actors may need support to adopt productivity-enhancing technologies, including efforts to strengthen capacities, provide risk manage- ment tools, and increase access to financial services. Concluding Remarks Africa’s food systems face a multitude of constraints, challenges, and risks. Efforts are needed to raise productivity throughout the food value chain while increasing environmental sustainability and promoting healthy, safe, and nutritious diets. In a context of increased shocks from climate change, conflict, global trade disruptions, and other sources, the sustainability and resilience of food systems must be a key goal of food systems transformation efforts. The post-Malabo agenda for CAADP implementation will need to draw upon knowledge and evidence in order to successfully guide food systems transformation policy planning and implementation. The 2023 ATOR strives to provide evidence to inform the design of the post-Malabo agenda by assess- ing the status of CAADP implementation, exploring strategic issues related to food systems transformation, and proposing methodologies and approaches to better understand food systems challenges and drivers. The report calls for a strong focus on enhancing innovation throughout Africa’s food systems as well as sustained investments in generating the data required to inform evidence- based food systems transformation policy. http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report 1 CHAPTER 1 Introduction John M. Ulimwengu, Ebenezer Miezah Kwofie, Julia Collins, and Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu 2 resakss.org Overview This year marks 20 years of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which was launched with the Maputo Declaration in 2003. With CAADP, African leaders committed to promoting agricultural growth as a key catalyst of broader economic development. After the first decade of CAADP implementation, characterized by strong agricultural and economic growth across the continent, the CAADP agenda was broadened under the 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. The Malabo Declaration reaffirmed the commitments of African heads of state to the original CAADP targets of achieving a 6 percent agricultural growth rate and a 10 percent agricultural expenditure share, while adding further commitments to be achieved by 2025 in areas including nutrition, poverty, resilience, and trade. With 2025 approaching, the African Union, regional economic communi- ties, and countries are embarking on the process of designing the next phase of CAADP implementation. The post-Malabo agenda will need to build on the significant successes of CAADP in the past 20 years while learning from mistakes and failures. Moreover, the next CAADP cycle must expand to focus on additional key areas that have emerged in the past decade. In particular, the importance of applying a food systems lens to policy has been widely acknowl- edged; this involves taking into account the wide range of actors and activities involved in the production, distribution, and consumption of food and the interlinkages among them. Through CAADP, as reinforced under the Malabo Declaration, African leaders already envisioned a food systems approach to trigger an agricultural-led economic transformation across the continent. Extensive reflection in the years following the Malabo Declaration has helped to clarify continental priorities for food systems transformation and brought to light additional strategic areas that should be addressed through food systems transformation efforts. The development of the post-Malabo agenda is therefore an opportunity to deepen the focus on food systems and further strengthen CAADP implementation to promote sustainable food systems transformation. The main objective of the 2023 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) is to generate evidence on the implementation of the CAADP/Malabo agenda and thus contribute to the design of the post-Malabo phase of CAADP implementation. The remainder of this introductory chapter briefly reviews the current state of the food systems transformation agenda in Africa before highlighting the ATOR’s 12 substantive chapters. Advancing Transformation of Africa’s Food Systems Food systems can be broadly defined as encompassing the group of actors and activities involved in the production, processing, distribution, consumption, and disposal of food, as well as the surrounding environment (von Braun et al. 2021). Food systems transformation refers to changes in food systems toward desirable outcomes; it generally encompasses movement toward food systems that are productive, resilient, and environmentally sustainable; support remunerative livelihoods; and provide healthy diets for all. Africa’s food systems face threats from several fronts that will only intensify in the future and thus need to be addressed as a matter of strategic priority. The COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and resulting global commodity market disruptions, as well as extreme weather events linked to a deepening climate crisis, are all indicative of shocks and stressors that put significant pressures on global and African food systems (Badiane and von Braun 2022). In addition to long-term dynamics such as demographic changes, urbanization, and a continentwide nutrition transition, these shocks represent a complex web of challenges to African food systems. When left unmitigated, the likely effects of shocks and stressors on agricultural yields and productivity, infrastructure, broader economic growth, and community livelihoods risk unraveling the progress made in improving food security and nutrition and alleviating poverty. Food systems challenges cannot be addressed in isolation, but require coor- dinated actions to remove constraints on multiple fronts. For example, efforts to increase farm productivity may not result in improved incomes for farmers or increased availability of food in domestic markets if transport infrastructure http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report 3 is inadequate to bring harvests to markets. Investments in irrigation or mecha- nized processing equipment may not improve productivity if energy supplies are unreliable. Increased supply of nutrient-dense foods may not improve nutrition if consumers cannot access them due to lack of financial resources or physical access to markets, or if they choose not to due to preferences or lack of knowledge. Because of the interlinked nature of such challenges, a food systems approach that considers the entire constellation of actors and activities and the interactions among them is essential to advancing development goals. In 2021, the United Nations Food Systems Summit (UNFSS) focused attention on the importance of applying a food systems lens to development efforts. Africa participated enthusiastically in the UNFSS, holding numerous regional and thematic dialogues to garner experiences and ideas from across the continent on challenges facing its food systems and potential solutions. Going into the UNFSS, the African Union Commission (AUC) and African Union Development Agency-New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AUDA-NEPAD) developed the Africa Common Position on Food Systems after extensive stakeholder consultations. The Common Position highlights key action areas involving national, regional, and continental interventions with necessary thematic and sector coherence, alignment, and interdependences (AUC and AUDA-NEPAD 2021). It also underscores the urgent need to pursue sustainability and resilience as a means of achieving food systems transfor- mation by catalyzing rapid expansion in agricultural and food productivity and production, boosting investment financing for Africa’s food systems transformation agenda, ensuring access to safe and nutritious food for all, and strengthening and harnessing Africa’s growing local food markets. Africa also engaged with the UNFSS at the country level, with a majority of countries developing national pathways documents that outline priorities, actions, and commitments for food systems transformation. The momentum created by the UNFSS has begun to drive action to achieve food systems transformation goals throughout Africa. However, a few critical hurdles are yet to be overcome, including the challenge of generating evidence to support the design of policies and interventions for food systems transforma- tion. Operationalizing the national pathways after the summit has also proved difficult. During preparations for the UNFSS+2 Stocktaking Moment in 2023, representatives from African countries identified several obstacles to imple- menting national pathways, including recent overlapping health, climate, and conflict-related shocks affecting food systems; high inflation, which has lowered access to agricultural inputs as well as healthy food; lack of financial resources; and technical capacity constraints (UN Food Systems Coordination Hub 2023). Other challenges include a lack of clarity on the division of responsibility for food systems transformation within governments, as well as insufficient coor- dination (Morrison 2022). Informing the Development of the Post-Malabo Agenda Addressing the challenges to achieving Africa’s food system goals requires evidence to inform policy choices and the design of implementation plans. Knowledge and analysis has been an important factor for CAADP in successfully informing the development of its agenda, as well as its implementation at the regional and country levels. In the early years of implementation, African centers of expertise, known as Pillar Institutions, provided knowledge support related to sustainable land and water management, market access, food supply and hunger, and agricultural research. The Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) was established in 2006 to provide data and evidence in support of CAADP implementation, as well as strengthening evidence- based policymaking systems. African universities, think tanks, and research organizations also contribute to generating and analyzing evidence to guide implementation. The post-Malabo agenda should continue to emphasize the strong role of locally relevant evidence to strengthen the development of broad strategies, as well as the design of detailed implementation plans and investments. The goal of this report is to begin the process of consolidating evidence and knowledge to guide the design of a robust and comprehensive post-Malabo agenda for continued food systems transformation in Africa. The report chapters (1) assess the current status of food systems, explore methodological issues, and review the alignment of food system commitments with other global goals, and (2) provide detailed assessments of key food systems compo- nents and cross-cutting issues, and offer recommendations for their coverage in the post-Malabo agenda. 4 resakss.org The report begins with a detailed examination of performance under the Malabo Declaration. In chapter 2, Ulimwengu, Tefera, and Wambo Yamdjeu analyze Africa’s performance in the last three Biennial Reviews (BR) and assess the efforts still needed to meet the Malabo Declaration goals and targets by 2025. In addition to descriptive analysis, the study uses structural equation modeling to empirically assess the causal relationships hypothesized in the Malabo theory of change. Although CAADP aims to help African countries reach a higher path of economic growth through agriculture-led develop- ment, the chapter shows that the goals of CAADP have not yet been met. The authors argue that the lack of progress in achieving CAADP/Malabo targets is a complex issue that encompasses numerous factors including policy and institutional failures. They emphasize the importance of quality data to help translate the CAADP/Malabo agenda from policy to effective action and stress that success requires the involvement of private sector players, international partners, and local communities in addition to governments. The complex nature of food systems, with their multiple interlinked activities and actors, can pose challenges for designing and implementing food systems policies because of the potential synergies and trade-offs between food system components. In chapter 3, Matchaya and Guthiga demonstrate the potential role of food system diagnostics to inform policy options for guiding food systems transformation. Food system diagnostics is an analytical approach to assess the various components and interdependencies within a food system, describing dynamics and highlighting strengths, weaknesses, and challenges. It allows stakeholders to identify food systems policy gaps, deter- mine achievable targets, promote sustainable agricultural practices, and explore existing opportunities for food systems transformation. The authors carry out food system diagnostic analysis for Malawi, providing a detailed assessment of the current status of major food system components and identifying gaps in food system policy coverage. The chapter highlights the importance of robust stakeholder involvement in any food system diagnostic analysis as an iterative, collaborative process. In addition to the outputs of the 2021 UNFSS, several other global and continental frameworks have been developed to achieve sustainable and healthy food systems, including the seven food systems priority policy actions proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) to improve the ability of food systems to ensure good nutrition. The complexity of the food systems trans- formation agenda means that it is important to evaluate the degree to which different commitments and frameworks reinforce each other. In chapter 4, Nanema, Amevinya, and Laar assess the alignment of Africa’s UNFSS commit- ments with the seven WHO food systems priority policy actions as well as selected CAADP BR performance categories. They find that national and conti- nental UNFSS commitments are only partially aligned with the frameworks examined, and that alignment of UNFSS commitments with BR performance categories is higher than their alignment with the WHO policy actions. The UNFSS commitments place significant emphasis on combating hunger and food security through sustainable increases in production, as well as building resil- ience to shocks and stressors. In addition to these essential areas, more attention should be paid to the areas included in the WHO priority policy actions, which aim to improve the food environment to promote healthy diets. Africa’s nutrition challenges are multifaceted. In addition to persistent undernourishment and growing issues of overweight and obesity, micronu- trient deficiencies, also known as “hidden hunger,” are widespread. In chapter 5, Ulimwengu, Magne Domgho, and Collins make the case for nutrition-smart food systems that deliver not only sufficient quantities of food, but sufficient quality to address micronutrient deficiencies. Using the cases of Senegal and Rwanda, the authors estimate and map three types of nutrient adequacy: nutrient production adequacy, nutrient market adequacy, and nutrient house- hold adequacy. Differences in adequacy patterns at different stages provide insight into potential areas of loss or gain of nutrients within the food system. The analysis also demonstrates the varying patterns of adequacy within coun- tries and between different nutrients, highlighting the need for context-specific solutions to improve nutrition. Food safety is a key component of food and nutrition security. Africa suffers from a disproportionate burden of foodborne diseases, which are associated with increasing health and economic repercussions. In chapter 6, Ayalew, Kareem, and Grace review the current food safety landscape in Africa, discussing available evidence on the burden of unsafe foods, identifying key challenges to improving food safety, and reviewing continentwide initiatives to strengthen food safety systems. They call for a paradigm shift in food safety governance in Africa, with emphasis on food safety as a shared responsibility, http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report 5 greater prioritization of domestic food safety needs, sustained funding to strengthen food safety systems and capacities, and investments in quality data on food safety. The authors make recommendations for the post-Malabo agenda to adequately capture and measure food safety systems and health outcomes. The importance of resilience, or the ability to withstand and recover from stressors and shocks, was recognized in the Malabo Declaration, which included a commitment to increasing the resilience of livelihoods and produc- tion systems to climate variability and other risks. The years since the Malabo Declaration have underlined the importance of strengthening the resilience of households, communities, and food systems to a wide range of shocks. Efforts to boost resilience require an understanding of its current status and drivers, but measuring resilience poses significant methodological challenges.1 In chapter 7, Agyemang and colleagues argue that the resilience of food systems should be assessed in combination with sustainability due to the interlinked nature of these two concepts. They develop an analytical framework to assess food system resilience and sustainability at multiple scales, and carry out a case study assessment of continental and regional food systems. The authors also propose a digital decision-support system to allow decision-makers to carry out such assessments and simulate the impacts of different interventions to advance food systems transformation. Climate change poses major risks to food systems transformation, and climate shocks and related extreme weather are major contributors to food insecurity in Africa. Chapter 8, by Wouterse and colleagues, examines the climate-food security nexus with a focus on incorporating climate risk and adaptation solutions in food systems transformation efforts. The chapter explores the components of climate risk in selected African countries as well as the economic implications of climate change and the potential impacts of climate-adaptive agricultural production strategies. The authors propose a typology for microregion climate risk to improve the targeting of adaptation interventions. The chapter finds that climate-smart agricultural practices have the potential to lessen the negative economic impacts of climate change, 1 Chapters 10 and 11 of the 2021 ATOR, Building Resilient African Food Systems after COVID-19 (Ulimwengu, Constas, and Ubalijoro 2021), also explored methodologies and frameworks for measuring resilience. See Constas, Wohlgemuth, and Ulimwengu (2021) and d’Errico, Jumbe, and Constas (2021). but that countries’ adaptive capacities need to be strengthened to ensure continued uptake of relevant technologies and practices. Due to differences in risk patterns between countries, adaptation strategies must be tailored to local contexts. Women in Africa often face disproportionate challenges in accessing resources, which reduces individual welfare as well as broader productivity and efficiency. The relationship between food systems transformation and gender equality is complex. In chapter 9, Quisumbing and colleagues explore the potential contribution of food systems transformation to increased gender equality and women’s empowerment, as well as the potential for equality and empowerment to help accelerate food systems transformation. The chapter finds evidence that women’s empowerment and gender parity can have positive impacts on several key food systems transformation outcomes, while the changes created by this transformation can have both positive and negative impacts on equality and women’s empowerment. Gender-transformative inter- ventions must be grounded in an understanding of context-specific factors, which requires collecting gender-related data on the costs and benefits of changes in food systems for both men and women. Bioeconomy is an approach that applies science, technology, and inno- vation for sustainable production and value addition based on biological resources. Improved bioeconomy adoption can contribute to environmental sustainability, food and nutrition security, energy security, economic growth, and social welfare. In chapter 10, Aidoo and colleagues explore Africa’s bioeconomy landscape and future prospects. The chapter examines the current status of bioeconomy adoption in different components of food systems, high- lighting gaps and potential actions; reviews bioeconomy policies, strategies, and regional commitments; and provides recommendations for the design and implementation of an Africa-wide bioeconomy strategy. Successfully developing a robust strategy will require further diagnostic work to assess national and regional bioeconomy potential across the continent, as well the establishment of an inclusive design process that allows farmers, youth, civil 6 resakss.org society organizations, the private sector, and other stakeholders to have a voice in identifying opportunities for bioeconomy adoption. Efforts to accelerate food systems transformation require timely, high- quality, and reliable data that span the entire food system to guide the design of strategies and programs and enable monitoring, review, and mutual account- ability processes. In chapter 11, Matchaya, Makombe, and Mihaylova review data needs and efforts to increase data availability, highlight key data gaps, and provide recommendations for addressing challenges and harnessing opportuni- ties to improve data for decision-making in food systems transformation. The analysis shows that despite efforts to improve data availability and accessibility, numerous challenges persist, including poor data quality related to limited investments in data systems and capacities, as well as gaps in coverage of key areas. Notable data gaps include food processing and packaging; food retailing, distribution, and transportation; food waste and loss; and diet quality and nutrient content. The chapter calls for improved coordination between and among data generators and users as well as greater investments in data systems and capacities. Increasing agricultural production and productivity is a key goal of the CAADP and Malabo agendas, and an important driver of overall food systems transformation. In chapter 12, Fuglie discusses the role of agricultural productivity growth, key components of and constraints to growth, and opportunities for increasing productivity growth in Africa. The chapter reviews the key role of technological innovation and of agricultural research and development (R&D) systems in particular. The author makes recommendations to strengthen agricultural R&D systems, improve the level and efficiency of agricultural R&D investments, and promote the adoption of productivity- enhancing technologies by farmers. In addition to bolstering public R&D systems, the chapter suggests measures that governments can take to encourage private sector innovation to enhance the contribution of the private sector to productivity growth. In addition to providing evidence on featured issues relevant to the CAADP agenda, the ATOR also serves as the official monitoring and evaluation report for CAADP. Chapter 13, by Collins, Tefera, and Wambo Yamdjeu, reviews progress in CAADP implementation as well as the status of countries, regions, and the continent as a whole with respect to the indicators of the CAADP Results Framework. The chapter shows that Africa has made significant progress over the past two decades of CAADP implementation, with increases in incomes and agricultural productivity and decreases in hunger and poverty. However, the relatively rapid and robust progress during the early CAADP years slowed during the second decade of CAADP implementation, and the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war have further exacer- bated remaining challenges. The authors emphasize the need to build on the strengths of CAADP implementation while finding innovative ways to address continuing and new challenges in the post-Malabo agenda. The 2023 ATOR strives to assess the current state of Africa’s food systems, explore strategic issues related to food systems transformation, and reflect on necessary methodologies and approaches to provide a better understanding of key challenges and necessary actions to accelerate transformation. The trans- formation of African food systems in the post-Malabo era requires a concerted effort that encompasses policy reforms, investment in technology and innova- tion, commitment to nutrition and food safety, gender equity, and climate resilience strategies. This transformative journey must be underpinned by robust, evidence-based policies, driven by the collective effort of governments, the private sector, and civil societies, and guided by the principles of inclusivity, sustainability, and resilience. The path ahead is challenging, but with strategic collaboration and persistent effort, the vision of a transformed, robust, and sustainable African food system is within reach. http://resakss.org 2020 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report 7 CHAPTER 2 Seven Years of Implementation of the Malabo Declaration: Making Sense of the Malabo Theory of Change John M. Ulimwengu, Wondwosen Tefera, and Augustin Wambo Yamdjeu 8 resakss.org Introduction Adopted by the African Union heads of state and government in 2014, the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods provides the direction for agricultural growth and transformation on the continent. One of the seven commitments of the Malabo Declaration is the pledge by African heads of state and government to hold themselves accountable for actions and results against targets set out in the declaration. The commitment to mutual accountability is operationalized through a continentwide Biennial Review (BR) to monitor and report on progress made in achieving all the Malabo Declaration goals and targets.1 The African Union Commission (AUC) and the African Union Development Agency–New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AUDA-NEPAD), in collabo- ration with the regional economic communities (RECs) and with technical assistance from several partners,2 are leading the BR process. They are spear- heading the development of several components: 1. Technical guidelines that profile indicators utilized for assessing the progress made in achieving the seven Malabo commitments. 2. A country performance reporting template, tailored to each country, which serves as a structured tool for collecting data and presenting updates on country progress. 3. A technical note on the scorecard presenting the methodology adopted to benchmark and evaluate country progress toward meeting the Malabo commitments and targets. This note distinguishes between “on-track” and “not-on-track” progress statuses for each Malabo commitment and also computes an aggregate score reflecting the nation’s overall compliance with all the specified targets. 1 The seven Malabo Declaration commitments are (1) recommitting to the principles and values of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) process, (2) enhancing investment finance in agriculture, (3) ending hunger in Africa by 2025, (4) reducing poverty by half by 2025 through inclusive agricultural growth and transformation, (5) boosting intra-African trade in agricultural commodities and services, (6) enhancing resilience of livelihoods and production systems to climate variability and other related risks, and (7) strengthening mutual accountability for actions and results. 2 The technical partners include the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS), the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 3 The AATS is a tool that helps summarize countries’ performance on the BR indicators and track their progress on the Malabo commitments. For each country, the AATS highlights five indicators with strong performance and five areas that the country should pay greater attention to. 4. An e-Biennial Review (eBR) platform, which serves as an interactive repository for BR data. This comprehensive tool streamlines the collection, analysis, storage, accessibility, and reporting of data at various levels, from individual countries to regional and continental perspectives. The first BR process, report, and Africa Agriculture Transformation Scorecard (AATS)3 spotlighted lessons and challenges that offered room for improvement in upcoming BRs. For instance, the process faced delays in starting, exclusion of important stakeholders from review and dialogue, limited awareness of the BR process in some countries, and insufficient technical and financial resources. These challenges extended to organizing workshops for validating data before sending them to RECs. The assessment also highlighted data-related issues and capacity constraints that many African nations encounter. Specifically, the report pointed out problems such as low data quality, missing information, unclear indicators, and data not available in required formats. The absence of data posed a significant hurdle, as countries submitted reports with gaps in observations for various BR indicators. Moreover, countries struggled with inadequate technical skills for data collection, monitoring and evaluation, and analysis, along with ineffective protocols for sharing data among different government ministries. The report also acknowledged limitations in the BR performance scorecard methodology, particularly in choosing suitable indicator weights and assigning a zero score due to missing data from reporting countries. The purpose of this chapter is to analyze Africa’s performance in the last three BRs, examine the degree to which Africa is on track, and assess the efforts still needed to meet the Malabo goals and targets by 2025. The chapter uses structural equation modeling (SEM) with BR data to empirically assess the causal relationships hypothesized in the Malabo theory of change. Specifically, the analysis examines the relationships between the countries’ implementation http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report 9 of Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) prin- ciples and values, policy outcomes, and development outcomes measured by the BR data. In addition, the chapter aims to inform the post-Malabo agenda with forward-looking analysis and recommendations. The chapter is organized as follows: the following section outlines and discusses the BR process and trends in BR performance over the three BR cycles. This is followed by a discussion on the conceptual framework, estimation, and analysis of findings. The last section provides conclusions and recommendations. Context Since the inaugural report, a series of events have been organized at the national, regional, and continental levels to assess achievements, challenges, and lessons derived from the BR process. These gatherings have also deliberated on continual enhancements, particularly concerning the process itself, relevant indicators, data quality, methodologies, and technical guidelines. In essence, the BR process serves as a vehicle to implement the CAADP/ Malabo theory of change, striving to drive agricultural transformation and enhance food security and nutrition throughout Africa. Our understanding of the CAADP/Malabo theory of change, as outlined in Benin, Ulimwengu, and Tefera (2018), revolves around four key pillars: 1. Increasing investment in agriculture: This pillar emphasizes the need for African governments to allocate a significant portion of their national budgets to agriculture and ensure targeted investments in key areas such as irrigation, infrastructure, research, and extension services. 2. Ending hunger and achieving food security: The overall goal of the program is to enhance productivity and production in agriculture to improve food availability; promote market access; and support smallholder farmers, particularly women and youth, in adopting sustainable agricul- tural practices. 3. Promoting agricultural research, technology, and innovation: This pillar focuses on strengthening agricultural research and development systems; promoting the use of modern technologies; and fostering innovation to improve productivity, enhance resilience to climate change, and address challenges in the agricultural sector. 4. Enhancing resilience and agricultural sustainability: The theory of change emphasizes building resilience in agricultural systems, promoting sustain- able resource management, and adopting climate-smart agricultural practices to mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure long-term agricultural sustainability. Evaluating the implementation of CAADP/Malabo requires the consid- eration of various aspects such as policy reforms, investment, progress toward targets, and impact on agricultural development. The AUC, AUDA-NEPAD, and other stakeholders have been actively engaged in supporting countries in their efforts to develop and implement appropriate policies. However, the level of policy implementation varies across countries. Some countries have made significant progress in reforming policies, such as aligning their national agriculture investment plans with CAADP principles. Some have faced challenges in implementation due to limited capacity and resources, while others still have not done enough to embrace CAADP. For example, CAADP has been advocating for increased public and private investment in agriculture, suggesting the target of allocating at least 10 percent of national budget expenditures to the sector. However, here again, progress in invest- ment varies among countries, with some making significant strides while others struggle to meet the target. Limited public funding, competing priori- ties, and challenges in attracting private sector investment remain key barriers to achieving the investment goals. The Malabo Declaration also sets targets for development outcomes in various areas, including agricultural productivity, access to markets, food security, and resilience. Assessing progress toward these targets requires a country-specific analysis. Overall, as with policy reformation and invest- ment goals, progress has been mixed. Some countries have made significant progress in certain areas, such as increasing agricultural productivity or enhancing resilience, while facing challenges in other areas, such as reducing postharvest losses or achieving food security targets. In order to assess country performance in implementing the declaration, the AUC released the first, second, and third BR reports in 2018, 2020, and 2022, respectively, along with the corresponding AATS. During each BR reporting cycle, the AATS is compared with the BR bench- mark score, the minimum score required in that particular year for a country to be considered on track to achieving the Malabo target by 2025. During the 10 resakss.org inaugural (2017) BR, the benchmark score was 3.94 out of 10. As Figure 2.1 shows, by design, the minimum score increased to 6.66 points during the second (2019) BR and further to 7.28 in the third (2021) BR cycle. The minimum score needed for a country to be on track to achieve the Malabo targets for the next successive BRs are 8.65 and 9.57 for the 2023 (fourth BR) and 2025 (fifth BR), respectively (AUC 2020). This means that Africa as a whole needs to experience continuous and progressive improvement to be on track in meeting the Malabo goals and targets. The number of countries that drafted, validated, and submitted BR reports to their respective RECs increased from 47 in the first BR to 49 in the second BR and 51 in the third BR cycle, showing that more and more countries are being involved in the BR process. The performance observed in the three BRs, however, indicates that Africa has remained off track with regard to meeting the Malabo goals and targets by 2025. In the first (2017) BR, the AATS stood at 3.6 out of 10, below the 3.94 minimum required to be on track. In the second (2019) BR, the continent improved its score by about 12 percent, to 4.03, but remained off track since it was below the benchmark of 6.66 set for the second BR cycle. In the third (2021) BR cycle, the AATS reached 4.32, increasing by 7.2 percent over the second BR, but the continent again remained far off track, as it was below the 7.28 benchmark (Figure 2.2). The trend shows that progress in implementing the goals and targets has continued to slow for Africa as a whole. A similar trend was observed for most of the geographic regions and RECs. A few subgroups were on track during the first BR cycle, including eastern Africa, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC), and the Union du Maghreb Arab (UMA). In the second and third BR cycles, however, none of the geographic regions and RECs were Source: Authors’ calculations based on AUC (2020, 2022). Note: BR = Biennial Review. FIGURE 2.1—BR BENCHMARK (MINIMUM SCORES BY BR CYCLE) 3.94 6.66 7.28 8.65 9.57 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 First BR (2017) Second BR (2019) Third BR (2021) Fourth BR (2023) Fifth BR (2025) BR S CO RE 0 2 4 6 8 10 A fr ic a Ce nt ra l Ea st er n N or th er n So ut he rn W es te rn CE N -S A D CO M ES A EA C EC CA S EC O W A S IG A D SA D C U M A 1st BR 2nd BR 3rd BR 1st BR BM (3.94) 2nd BR BM (6.66) 3rd BR BM (7.28) Source: Authors’ calculations based on AUC (2018, 2020, and 2022). Note: BM = benchmark; BR = Biennial Review; CEN-SAD = Community of Sahel-Saharan States; COMESA = Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; EAC = East African Community; ECCAS = Economic Community of Central African States; ECOWAS = Economic Community of West African States; IGAD = Intergovernmental Authority on Development; SADC = Southern African Development Community; UMA = Union du Maghreb Arabe. FIGURE 2.2—AFRICA AGRICULTURE TRANSFORMATION SCORE AND BR BENCHMARKS (BY BR CYCLE) http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report 11 able to reach the benchmark scores for meeting the Malabo goals and targets. Relatively higher scores were recorded during the second and third BR cycles by a few subgroups, including western Africa, EAC, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). In this chapter, using data from the first three BR cycles (2017, 2019, and 2021), we provide a comprehensive assessment of the BR thematic areas and indicators and their interrelationships that builds on the agenda’s own theory of change, as developed by Benin, Ulimwengu, and Tefera (2018). Conceptual Framework and Methods Impact Pathway of the Malabo Declaration and Empirical Framework The CAADP/Malabo theory of change builds on the work devel- oped by Benin, Ulimwengu, and Tefera (2018), which outlines the fundamental hypothesis for recommitting to the CAADP process. The hypothesis is that committing to mutual account- ability for results and actions in CAADP brings added benefit by reforming evidence-based planning and implementation, rooted in the principles of country ownership and inclusiveness. The theory of change can be generalized by the impact pathway shown in Figure 2.3.4 Committing to the CAADP principles and values is expected to improve the policymaking process and to safeguard the design and implementation of good policies, which in turn is expected to lead to desirable policy outcomes. These outcomes include an increase in the amount and quality of public and private investments, increased access to technologies and markets, a reduction in postharvest losses, increased employment for women and youth along key value chains, and increased systemic capacity for planning and implementation. The policy outcomes in turn are expected to contribute to better develop- ment outcomes—to raise productivity, accelerate growth, increase trade, reduce poverty and hunger, increase food and nutrition security, and enhance resilience to climate variability. 4 This impact pathway underlies the CAADP Monitoring and Evaluation Framework (Benin, Johnson, and Omilola 2010), the CAADP Mutual Accountability Framework (Oruko et al. 2011), the CAADP Results Framework (AU-NEPAD 2015a), and the Implementation Strategy and Roadmap to Achieve the 2025 Vision on CAADP (AU-NEPAD 2015b). As shown in Figure 2.3, the notion of committing to mutual accountability for results and actions is better reflected in the feedback linkages associated with monitoring and evaluation, joint sector reviews, and cross-country learning, among others, to improve the policymaking process and the design and imple- mentation of evidence-based policies and plans. This reflects the dynamism in the implementation process, and the form of mutual accountability may be described as collaborative, as opposed to representative or corporate (Steer, Wathne, and Driscoll 2008). In this chapter, we aim to empirically assess the existence and strength of causal relationships between the different elements of the Malabo Declaration impact pathway illustrated in Figure 2.3. To do this, we use structural equation Mutual accountability, monitoring and evaluation, joint sector reviews, cross-country learning CAADP principles and values • Agriculture-led development strategy • Policy e�ciency, dialogue, review, and accountability • Partnerships and alliances for inclusiveness Evidence-based policies and plans Policy outcomes Development outcomes • Change in existing policies and strategies • New policies, strategies, and plans • Reforms Improvement in: • Public/private �nancing and investments • Access to technologies, inputs, and markets • Postharvest losses • Value chains • Jobs for womwn/youth • Systemic capacity Improvement in: • Productivity • Growth • Trade • Poverty • Hunger • Food/nutrition • Resilience Source: Authors’ calculations based on AUC (2018, 2020, and 2022). Note: BM = benchmark; BR = Biennial Review; CEN-SAD = Community of Sahel-Saharan States; COMESA = Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; EAC = East African Community; ECCAS = Economic Community of Central African States; ECOWAS = Economic Community of West African States; IGAD = Intergovernmental Authority on Development; SADC = Southern African Development Community; UMA = Union du Maghreb Arabe. FIGURE 2.3—MALABO DECLARATION IMPACT PATHWAY 12 resakss.org modeling (SEM), a powerful multivariate analysis technique that is widely used in social sciences research. It integrates aspects of several other statistical tech- niques, including factor analysis, multiple regression, and simultaneous equation modeling. It is particularly suited to testing complex relationships involving multiple causes and multiple outcomes. Theoretical and empirical advantages of SEM include that it (1) allows complex relationship testing, (2) models measure- ment error and allows for the inclusion of confounding variables, (3) enables the analysis of latent variables, (4) enables theory development and tests the plausibility of a hypothesized model, (5) can conduct multigroup comparisons, (6) allows the estimation of models with nonlinear relationships, and (7) can be used with secondary data sources. While SEM has many advantages, it also has certain limitations, such as complexity in interpretation and dependence on model specification. In this paper we build the SEM based on the BR’s own theory of change, and results are interpreted accordingly. In the analysis section we discuss the estimation strategy to account for SEM limitations. Data The CAADP Malabo BR reports and the corresponding databases released by the AUC in 2018, 2020, and 2022 are the sources for the data used in this chapter. The BR database covers indicators related to the CAADP process, investment in agriculture, poverty, hunger, agricultural trade within Africa, resilience, and mutual accountability. During the inaugural BR reporting period, seven thematic areas were disaggregated into 23 performance categories, which were further divided into 43 indicators. Following the second BR, four more indicators on food safety and food security were added under thematic area 3 (ending hunger). This increased the number of performance categories to 24 and the total number of indicators to 47 (Table 2.1). Appendix Table A2.1 presents the seven thematic areas, all 24 performance categories, and the 47 indicators and 5 The eBR is an interactive web-based data platform tool developed by ReSAKSS. their position in the impact pathway. Some of the indicators were incorporated after the second BR. These are performance category 3.6 (food safety) and some indicators under thematic area 3: the prevalence of moderate and severe food insecurity in the population (I3.5vii), Food Safety Systems Index (I3.6i), Food Safety Health Index (I3.6ii), and Food Safety Trade Index (I3.6iii). Reporting on the BR indicators requires a wide range of parameters across African food systems. In the first (2017) BR, a total of 166 parameters were required to report on the 43 BR indicators, and this increased by 60 percent, to 266, during the second BR. Countries were advised to report on disaggregated data following the introduction of the eBR,5 which was the main reason behind the increase in the number of parameters (Benin et al. 2020). Furthermore, the introduction of four more indicators during the 2019 BR necessitated the addition of several new parameters. In the third (2021) BR cycle, the required number of parameters to report on the 47 indicators further increased, to 334, representing a change of 25.6 percent from the second (2019) BR. Parameters needed in thematic area 3 (ending hunger) and to some extent in thematic area 4 (halving TABLE 2.1—NUMBER OF MALABO BR PERFORMANCE CATEGORIES AND INDICATORS Thematic area Number of Performance categories Indicators First BR Second BR Third BR First BR Second BR Third BR TA1: Recommitting to CAADP process 3 3 3 3 3 3 TA2: Enhancing investment finance in agriculture 4 4 4 6 6 6 TA3: Ending hunger by 2025 5 6 6 17 21 21 TA4: Halving poverty through agriculture by 2025 4 4 4 8 8 8 TA5: Boosting intra-African trade in agriculture commodities and services 2 2 2 3 3 3 TA6: Enhancing resilience to climate variability 2 2 2 3 3 3 TA7: Mutual accountability for actions and results 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total 23 24 24 43 47 47 Source: AUC (2018, 2020, and 2022). Note: BR = Biennial Review; CAADP = Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme; TA = thematic area. http://resakss.org 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report 13 poverty) were further disaggregated during the third BR exercise. In addition, two indicators in thematic area 2 (investment in agriculture) that were silent in the previous BR cycles were included in the analysis during the 2021 BR cycle and therefore further contributed to the increase in the number of parameters. In general, the parameters required for thematic area 3 (ending hunger) remained the highest during the three BR cycles and showed significant increase during the last two BRs (Figure 2.4). In the third BR cycle, close to 60 percent of the total parameters required on the BR report were related to thematic area 3. The number of parameters for thematic areas 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 combined was less than that of thematic area 3 alone. However, compared to the first (2017) BR, the number of parameters in the subsequent two BRs decreased for thematic area 1 (recommitment to CAADP) and thematic area 7 (mutual accountability). This is because the parameters required for computing the indicators for the two thematic areas were simplified (Benin et al. 2020). The number of countries that participated in the BR and submitted data represents the maximum number of observations expected for each indicator in each BR cycle. Thus, the maximum number of observa- tions in the first, second, and third BRs was 47, 49, and 51, respectively. As Appendix Table A2.2 shows, data were missing for many of the indicators, although the magni- tude of the deficiency differed by indicator as well as by BR cycle. Data loss was more notable in some indicators, including I3.3, I3.5v, I4.1iv, and I3.6iii. The number of countries with missing observations showed a declining trend from the first BR cycle to the third (Appendix Table A2.2). Critical Analysis Indicators on Recommitting to CAADP Process and Mutual Accountability for Actions and Results Progress in thematic area 1—recommitting to the CAADP process: The Malabo commitment to the CAADP process (thematic area 1) is composed of three performance categories, each with one performance indicator. Country CAADP process is the first performance category (PC1.1), and the indicator is the CAADP Process Completion Index (I1.1), with a milestone of 100 percent since 2018. Countries are required to report a total of seven parameters on this indicator. These parameters measure the existence and imple- mentation of a Malabo-compliant national agriculture investment plan. The indicator is computed by taking a simple average of the seven param- eters. The progress for the continent shows continuous improvement in indicator I1.1 during the three BR cycles, increasing from 63.2 percent to 81 percent between the first and the third BRs (Figure 2.5A). Looking at geographic regions, a pattern similar to the continent as a whole holds for the northern and southern Africa regions. Fo