Theme 1 – Annual Report 2011 1.3 THEME 1 CORE ACTIVITIES SUMMARY Output 1.1.1 Development of farming systems and production technologies adapted to climate change conditions in time and space through design of tools for improving crops, livestock, and agronomic and natural resource management practices - Phase II of the Multi-site agricultural trial data repository for climate change analysis (Agtrials) completed. Deliverables: Registration of 2380 trials, development new geographic interface allowing making queries, the database structure, new blog and communication protocols. New partnerships developed (i.e University of California, AgMIP project, Tropical Legumes project, Monsanto) and successful integration with the GCP’s CropOntology. Generic method and R library created for the analysis of Genotype-by- environment interactions using multi-site trial data and climate databases; two case studies carried out on the use of trial sites data for seasonal forecasting of crop yields (Beans and Potatoes). - Improvement and evaluation of the Analogue tool. Deliverables: Development of online interface of the analogue methodology (http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/Analogues/) and evaluation of the analogue tool using agricultural trial data for Rice, Wheat and Maize. Output 1.1.2 Building of regional and national capacities to produce and communicate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for progressive climate change at the national level (e.g. through NAPAs) - Development of a novel methodology for interdisciplinary resilience and adaptation research and Social Return On Investment costing. Deliverables: PSROI analytical framework developed and pilot studies -including three day workshops- carried out in Kenya and Senegal to test the framework through a combination of methodological tools. CCAFS Working Paper: Community Based Adaptation Costing: An integrated framework for agricultural adaptation analysis using Social Return on Investment (SROI). Available soon at: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/working- papers - Capacity development of the Analogue methodology: Deliverable: Training workshop “Using Climate Scenarios and Analogues for designing adaptation strategies in Agriculture” organized in Nepal; 30 participants from EA, WA and IGP (12 countries). Output 1.1.3 New knowledge synthesizing institutional arrangements, policies and mechanisms for improving the adaptive capacity of agricultural sector actors and those involved in managing the food system - Ongoing analysis of the role of rural institutions in enabling adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector (by the Stockholm Environment Institute). Deliverable: Discussion paper that synthesizes institutional arrangements, policies and mechanisms for improving the adaptive capacity of agricultural sector and 2 page executive summary converted into a policy brief (Joint CCAFS-Partner branding) - Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network (AMKN) officially launched after completion of the proof of concept as a georeferenced aggregator of climate change adaptation and mitigation information. Deliverables: Training of CCAFS staff for its maintenance and content curation, and design of a roadmap for the further development of the platform. Output 1.1.4 Testing of participatory methods that are sensitive to gender, livelihoods categories and other social differentiators, to apply globally - Ongoing study of farmer’s social, cultural and gender specific barriers for enabling behavioral change and improve adaptive capacity, based on farmers’ exchanges between climatic analogues locations in the tree CCAFS initial regions. Deliverables: Partner organizations contracted (Greenwich University and Oxford university/Adelaide University); initial sites selected; potential local partners identified and preliminary field visits planned for April in Nepal, May in Ghana and Tanzania. Output 1.2.1 Understanding and evaluating the response of different varieties/crops to climate change in time and space, and generating comprehensive strategies for crop improvement through a combination of modelling, expert consultation and stakeholder dialogue - Breeding strategies for future climate stresses; Planning workshops held in Cali and first regional workshop held in Addis Ababa. Deliverables: Development of a solid research framework and a 3 years action operational plan for CCAFS to support breeders in the design of strategies that will tackle the stresses related to future/ novel climates; engagement with regional crop improvement institutions to identify potential improvement scenarios and begin to incorporate into models. Visions developed and strategies devised for four target crops sorghum, rice, beans and bananas. A total of 50 participants representing the breeding and modeling communities from 16 countries attended the workshops. - Assessing impacts of progressive climate change on agricultural production of the most important crops within the three CCAFS regions. Deliverables: Calibration of EcoCrop model performed with data of Sorghum, Barely and groundnut; EcoCrop model used to predict the impacts of climate change on sorghum, barley and cassava. Two papers submitted to Agricultural and Forest Meteorology and one to Tropical Plant Biology. - Continued development of crop modelling approaches for major crops to evaluate impacts and run scenario analysis (e.g. crop improvement scenarios) and improved understanding of temperature thresholds used in crop models. Deliverables: GLAM crop model runs for Indian Wheat - Continued development of climate projections, with other themes, including the identification of GCM data for use in CCAFS and the consolidation of downscaled climate surfaces (collaboration with Theme 4). Deliverables: new version for ccafs-climate.org portal ready including data produced at ILRI/IFPRI and outputs from PRECIS; CMIP3 projections ready to be added to the portal (infrastructure issue); CMIP5 climate data downloaded and ready to be processed (i.e. downscaled). - Incorporation of pest and disease models into other crop and cropping systems models. Deliverables: Paper “The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management” by Garrett et al. submitted to AFM. Output 1.3.1 New knowledge, guidelines and access to germplasm are provided for using genetic and species diversity to enhance adaptation, productivity and resilience to changing climate - Ongoing development of the on-farm rice participatory network for climate change adaptation and visualization in the Indo-Gangetic Plains (Phase II). Deliverables: Field trials of 14 and 8 selected rice varieties performed at 18 farmers’ fields in India and Nepal, respectively (Karnal, Haryana and Pusa, Bihar in India; and Parwanipur, Nepal); Data on several morphological traits are being recorded. Farmers’ field days carried out. 1.4 ACTIVITY REPORTING SUMMARY See intranet Excel document. 1.5 PUBLICATIONS Peer-reviewed papers Challinor, A. 2011. Forecasting Food. Nature Climate Change (1):103-104. Challinor, A. J., M. Stafford Smith, P. K. Thornton (submitted). Agro-climate ensembles: emerging tools for quantifying uncertainty and informing adaptation. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Challinor, A. J. (2011) “Commentary on Chapter 2.1: Climate Change Projections in Some Asian Countries” in Climate Change Adaptation and International Development. (Eds. R. Fujikura and M. Kawanishi). Earthscan ISBN 978-1-84971-152-4. p. 63-65 Garret K.A., Dobson, A. D. M., Kroschel, J. , Natarajan, B., Orlandini, S., Tonnang, H. E. Z., Valdivia, C.The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management. Submitted AFM Hawkins, E., T. M. Osborne, Chun Kit Hoa, A. J. Challinor (submitted). Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Hollaway, M. J., S. R. Arnold, A. J. Challinor, and L. D. Emberson (2011). Intercontinental trans- boundary contributions to ozone-induced crop yield losses in the Northern Hemisphere. Biogeosciences, 9, 1–22, 2012 Jarvis, A.; Mulligan, M. 2011.The climate of cloud forests. Hydrological Processes (United Kingdom), 25(3): 327-343. Jarvis, A.; Lau, C.; Cook, S.E.; Wollenberg, E.; Hansen, J.; Bonilla, O.; Challinor, A. 2011. An integrated adaptation and mitigation framework for developing agricultural research: synergies and trade-offs. Experimental Agriculture 47:185-203. Jarvis, A., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Herrera Campo, B.V., Navarro-Racines, C.E. 2011. Is Cassava the Answer to African Climate Change Adaptation? Tropical Plant Biology, accepted for publication. Jiménez, D.; Cock, J.; Jarvis, A.; García, J.; Satizábal, H.F.; Van Damme, P.; Pérez Uribe, A.; Barreto Sáenz, M.A. 2011. Interpretation of commercial production information: a case study of lulo (Solanum quitoense), an under-researched Andean fruit. Agricultural Systems 104(3):258- 270 Mulligan, M.; Fisher, M.; Sharma, B.; Xu, Z.X.; Ringler, C.; Mahé, G.; Jarvis, A.; Ramírez, J.; Clanet, J.C.; Ogilvie, A.; Ahmad, M. 2011. The nature and impact of climate change in the challenge program on water and food (CPWF) basins. Water International 36 (1): 96-124. Maxted, N.; Kell, S.; Toledo, Á.; Dullo, E.; Heywood, V.; Hodgkin, T.; Hunter, D.; Guarino, L.; Jarvis, A. & Ford-Lloyd, B. 2011. A global approach to crop wild relative conservation: securing the gene pool for food and agriculture. KEW BULLETIN VOL. 65: 561–576. Ramirez-Villegas, J., Jarvis, A., Laderach, P. In press. Empirical approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.005 Ramirez-Villegas, J., Salazar-Villegas, M, Jarvis, A. and Navarro-Racines, C.E. 2011. A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: Perspectives towards 2050. Climatic Change, accepted for publication Ramirez-Villegas, J., Challinor, A. 2011. Assessing relevant climate data for agricultural applications. Submitted to Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Watson, J. and A. J. Challinor (submitted). The relative importance of rainfall, temperature and yield data for a regional-scale crop model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Vermeulen S.J.; Aggarwal,P.K.; Ainslie,A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor A.J.; Hansen, J.W.; Ingram, J.S.; Jarvis, A.; Kristjanson, P.; Lau, C.; Nelson, G.C.; Thornton P.K.; Wollenber, E. 2011. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environmental Science and policy. Vermeulen, S., R. Zougmore, E. Wollenberg, P. Thornton, G. Nelson, P. Kristjanson, J. Kinyangi, A. Jarvis, J. Hansen, A. J. Challinor, B. Campbell and P. K. Aggarwal (2012). Climate change, agriculture and food security: a global partnership to link research and action for low-income agricultural producers and consumers. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 4:1–6 Book chapters Beebe, S., Ramirez, J., Jarvis, A., Rao, I.M., Mosquera, G., Blair, M., and Bueno, J.M. 2011. Chapter 16: Common Beans and the Challenges of Climate Change. In: Yadav, S., Redden, B. Hattfield, J.L., and Lotze-Campen, H. (Eds.) Crop Adaptation to Climate Change. Wiley-Blackwell. Ceballos, H., Ramirez, J., Belloti, A.C., Jarvis, A., and Alvarez, E. 2011. Chapter 19: Adaptation of Cassava to Changing Climates. In: Yadav, S., Redden, B. Hattfield, J.L., and Lotze-Campen, H. (Eds.) Crop Adaptation to Climate Change. Wiley-Blackwell. Jarvis, A.; Ramirez, J.; Bonilla-Findji, O, and Zapata, E. 2011. Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Latin America, Chapter 3.1. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0- 8138-2016-3, 632 p Laderach P.; Lundy M.; Jarvis A.; Ramirez J. Perez-Portilla, E; Schepp K. and A. Eitzinger. 2011. Predicted Impact of Climate change on Coffee Supply Chains. In: The Economic, Social and Political Elements of Climate Change, 703–723, W.L. Filho (ed,). Available:http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/978-3-642-14776-0 Padulosi, S.; Heywood,V.; Hunter, D.; and Jarvis, A. 2011. Underutilized Species and Climate Change: Current Status and Outlook, Chapter 26. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0-8138-2016-3, 632 p. Ramirez, J., Jarvis, A., Van den Bergh, I., Staver, C., and Turner D. 2011. Chapter 20: Changing Climates: Effects on Growing Conditions for Banana and Plantain (Musa spp.) and Possible Responses. In: Yadav, S., Redden, B. Hattfield, J.L., and Lotze-Campen, H. (Eds.) Crop Adaptation to Climate Change. Wiley-Blackwell. Snook, L.K., Dulloo M.E., Jarvis, A., Scheldeman, X. and Kneller, M. 2011. Crop Germplasm Diversity: The Role of Gene Bank Collections in Facilitating Adaptation to Climate Change, Chapter 25. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0-8138-2016-3, 632 p. Schaefleitner, R., Ramirez, J., Jarvis, A., Evers, D., Gutierrez, R., and Scurrah, M. 2011. Chapter 11: Adaptation of the Potato Crop to Changing Climates. In: Yadav, S., Redden, B. Hattfield, J.L., and Lotze-Campen, H. (Eds.) Crop Adaptation to Climate Change. Wiley-Blackwell, ISBN: 978-0- 8138-2016-3, 632 p. Proceedings Fonte, S.J.; González, A.; Graefe, S.; Guimaraes, E. Perpétuo; M.G.; Jarvis, A.; Lavelle, P.; Lundy, M.; Peters, M.; Quintero, M.; Rao, I.; Tapascco, J.; Etter, A.; Martínez, C.; Murgueitio, R.,E.; Reis, C.J.; Rodríguez, C.A. 2011. Strategy in action abridged version: Amazon region eco-efficient landscapes = Estrategia en acción versión abreviada: Región Amazónica paisajes eco-eficientes . Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Cali, CO. 2 p. (CIAT Strategy in action No. 2 (abridged version) CIAT Estrategia en acción No. 2 (versión abreviada) Jarvis, A.; Ramirez, J.; Castañeda, N.; Guarino, L. 2011,The critical role of crop wild relatives in ensuring long-term food security and their need for conservation, XXIX Congreso Latinoamericano de quimica, September 2011, Cartagena, Colombia. Khoury, C.; Castañeda-Alvarez, N.P.; Vincent, H.; Jarvis, A.; Maxted, N.; Eastwood,R.; Guarino, L.; 2011, Planning for Collecting the Crop Wild Relatives of the World’s Major Crops, World Botany Conference, USA, May 2011. Rao, I.; Polania, J.; Rivera, M.; Ricaurte, J.; Borrero, G.; Grajales, M.; Cajiao,C.; Monserrate, F.; Butare, L.; Asfaw, A.; Makunde, G.; Alemaheyu, F.; Ramirez, J.; Jarvis, A.; and Beebe, S.; 2011, Improving genetic adaptation of common bean to climate change, IAEA annual meeting, Vienna, 2011. Van den Bergh, I., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Staver, C., Turner, D., Jarvis, A., and Brown, D. 2011. Climate Change in the Subtropics: Impacts of Projected Averages and Variability on Banana Productivity. Acta Horticulturae, in press. Warren, R.; Price, J.T.; Vanderwal J.; Ramirez, J.; Jarvis, A.; Shoo, L.; Goswami, S.; 2011. Making scientific data available to adaptation practitioners: the Wallace Initiative and ClimaScope, AGU Fall Meeting, San Franisco, December 2011. Other publications Ramírez, J., Lau, C., Köhler, A.-K.,Signer, J., Jarvis, A.,Arnell, N., Osborne, T., Hooker, J. 2011. Finding tomorrow’s agriculture today. Working Paper 12. Cali, Colombia: CGIAR Research Program on climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Available online at: www.ccafs.org Jarvis, A. 2011. Facilitating REDD in the Amazon: tools and methodologies to inform decision making= REDD en el Amazonas: herramientas y metodologías para tomar decisiones . Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Cali, CO. 2 p. (CIAT Hoja Informativa No. 17 CIAT Brief No. 17) Jarvis, A.; Méndez, E. 2011. Prioritizing food security and livelihoods in climate change mitigation mechanisms: experiences and opportunities for smallholder coffee agroforestry, forest communities and REDD+. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT); Prisma, San Salvador, SV. 8 p. (PolicyBrief) Lau, C.; Jarvis, A.; Ramírez, J. 2011. Colombian agriculture: adapting to climate change= Agricultura Colombiana: adaptación al cambio climático. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Cali, CO. 2 p. (CIAT PolicyBrief No.1 CIAT Políticas en Síntesis No. 1) Vermeulen, S.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor, A.J.; Hansen, J.W.; Ingram, J.S.I.; Jarvis, A.; Kristjanson, P.; Lau, C.; Nelson, G.C.; Thornton, P.K.; Wollenberg, E. 2010. Outlook for knowledge, tools and action. Climate change, agriculture and food security, report No. 3. 1.6 CASE STUDIES Case study 1. Pilot study on the use of ‘Social Return on Investment (SROI) as a prioritizing tool for adaptation/mitigation interventions – methodological development’. Type: Social differentiation and Gender/ Capacity strengthening - Brief description of the activity: Choosing the best climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture can be a challenging task for decision makers and farmers alike. Given the many options available, it is important that scarce resources are used to support measures that are both cost effective and reflect the needs of communities vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. CCAFS joined forces with Oxford University, ViAgroforestry, CARE international and the International Red Cross to pilot a new way of identifying community appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies and determining their associated costs and benefits. The approach built on a novel cost-benefit framework called Social Return on Investment (SROI), a participatory method for discovering the costs and benefits (economic, social and environmental) of an organization, policy or project. It uses focus groups and interviews with stakeholders to create visual Impact Maps that tell the story of how change is being created and how the impacts can best be measured – all from the perspective of those directly affected. These pilots in agricultural adaptation and mitigation provided a new context for SROI’s application. - Result of activity A novel Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI) analytical framework has been developed and pilot studies on community based adaptation prioritization and costing were conducted in Kenya (Kochiel and Othidhe) and Senegal (N’Dodji). Two complementary activities took place; (1) A three day workshop for the community to self-identify appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies and (2) individual interviews to measure the costs and benefits of those strategies. Following the identification of the adaptation strategies and preliminary community planning via back-casting, a final intervention in each community was designed through a technical approach in consultation with local partners and key informants. The interventions were ultimately costed using the SROI analysis and steps for the implementation of those strategies were identified, including potential barriers and incentives for participation. In Kochiel, the community prioritized tree planting as the adaptation intervention that they wanted to work on. In N’Dodji, the prioritization of the key interventions was divided along gender lines. The women identified adequate water sources as being the key priority for future adaptation whereas the men identified the need for more agricultural. Partners involved and their role: Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford (scientific co-leadership), Vi Agroforestry and CARE (local support in EA), International Red Cross in Senegal (local support in WA) Research on which the activity is based Theme 1, Objective 1.3 Web address for further information (if available) - Overview on SROI approach: http://www.slideshare.net/cgiarclimate/comm unity-basedcosting-sroi - CCAFS Working Paper: Community Based Adaptation Costing: An integrated framework for agricultural adaptation analysis using Social Return on Investment (SROI). Available soon at: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/working- papers - Blog posts published: What really matters to people experiencing climate change effects? http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/whatreallymatters - Kenya: A glimpse of climate-smart agriculture: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/kenya-glimpse- climate-smart-agriculture-bad11 - Nyando’s Army of Madmen: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/nyando%E2%80%99s-army-madmen - Photos on display at Agriculture and Rural Development Day in December; they were also featured on the Guardian Global Development Blog. Case study 2: Development and implementation of the Analogue methodology Type: Capacity strengthening Brief description of the activity: Scientific evidence gathered in the last couple of decades suggests that climate conditions are changing rapidly and that this trend will likely continue and even accelerate. Future farming and food systems will face substantial impacts but while some regions may benefit from more favorable climatic conditions to production, others will face increased climate change-related biotic and abiotic stresses. It has been estimated that under climate change by 2100 there is likely to be 30% novel climates meaning also that 70% of projected climates already exist. The Analogue approach developed by CCAFS uses current spatial variability in climate as a means of having a real experiment of what the future holds for a site. Developed in R programming, the analogues tool allows to identify and map sites with statistically similar (‘analogous’) climates, across space (i.e. between locations) and/or time (i.e. with past or future climates). It’s a novel way of supporting climate and crop models with on-the-ground empirical testing. It will permit validation of computational models and trialing of new technologies/techniques and provide new opportunities to facilitating farmer-to- farmer knowledge exchange. Result of activity A CCAFS working paper Climate Analogues: Finding tomorrow's agriculture today has been published. The analogue tool has been continuously improved and a Beta version of an online interface has been developed (http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/Analogues/). Users may manipulate the tool in the free, open-source R software, or access a simplified user-friendly version online. Two indexes (CCAFS dissimilarity index and Hallegatte index) can be used to systematically identify climate analogues across the world, for certain regions, or among specific locations. Users may use default criteria or choose from a variety of global climate models (GCMs), scenarios, and input data. Evaluation studies of the analogue tool using agricultural trial data for Rice, Wheat and Maize are ongoing and a climatic validation phase is envisaged for 2012. To strengthen regional capacities a training workshop “Using Climate Scenarios and Analogues for designing adaptation strategies in Agriculture” was conducted in Katmandu (Nepal). It involved 30 participants from EA, WA and IGP (12 countries). As part of our effort to make climate change adaptation a more tangible endeavor, the analogue approach is also been applied from a socio-cultural perspective to encourage farmer-to-farmer exchanges between spatial analogues in order to promote knowledge sharing between producer communities regarding current agriculture practices that can help them maintain productivity in the future. The approach encompasses a gender and social differentiation component and will also permit the participatory diagnosis of capacities and needs, thus aiding in the design of community-appropriate adaptation strategies. Two so called “Farms of the future” projects are ongoing in Tanzania, Ghana and Nepal with exchanges occurring from May to July. Partners involved and their role: Methodological development: CCAFS theme 1; Walker Institute, University of Readings; University of Leeds. Farms of the Future: Oxford University (Nepal) and Greenwich University (EA,WA); Regional support: African Highlands Initiative (Tanzania) Research on which the activity is based Theme 1, Objective 1.1 Web address for further information (if available) - Analogue online interface: http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/Analogues/ - CCAFS working paper: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/assets/docs/ccafs-wp-12- climate-analogues-web.pdf - Blog post Regional Trianing: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/events/19/sep/2011/using-climate-scenarios- and-analogues-adaptation - Official launch in Durban at COP 17, Press room: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/media- centre/climateanalogues Case study 3: Developing Breeding strategies for future climate stresses Type: Capacity strengthening Brief description of the activity: Within CCAFS Adaption to Progressive Climate Change theme, one of the objectives is to generate comprehensive strategies for crop improvement through a combination of modeling, expert consultation and stakeholder dialogue, and translating these insights into coordinated global, regional and national research and technology investment policies. Result of activity Planning workshops held in Cali and first regional workshop held in Addis Ababa. Development of a solid research framework and a 3 years action operational plan for CCAFS to support breeders in the design of strategies that will tackle the stresses related to future/ novel climates; engagement with regional crop improvement institutions to identify potential improvement scenarios and begin to incorporate into models. Visions developed and strategies devised for four target crops sorghum, rice, beans and bananas. A total of 50 participants representing the breeding and modeling communities from 16 countries attended the workshops. Partners involved and their role: Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute (EARI), WACCI Research on which the activity is based Theme 1, Objective 1.2 Web address for further information (if available) - Presentation: http://www.slideshare.net/cgiarclimate/climate-smart-ccafs - Blog posts: We have a plan! : http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/we-have-plan-climate-proofing-crop-improvement - http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/mitigating-change-climate-relations-breeders-and-modelers-africa- unite-climate-smart-crops - Videos: Crop specific visions developed during the Addis Workshop: Banana- Musa Vision: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMiHHHvU_PI Common Beans: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oX4jzKugk1A Sorghum vision 2030: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=clKONgzTG80 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCyy6V4LJCI Rice Strategy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgpeMeczsug - Concluding remarks by Andy Jarvis , Addis Workshop: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqOhu7cOdpc 1.7 SYNTHESIS OF THEME ACTIVITIES Theme Leaders will provide a synthesis of all Program Participant activities, arranged by Output as per the CCAFS logframe. These reports will be 3-5 pages. Output 1.1.1- Development of farming systems and production technologies adapted to climate change conditions in time and space through design of tools for improving crops, livestock, and agronomic and natural resource management practices Work in 2011 has focused on developing the baseline information on what technologies exist, and how they perform under current conditions, and through modeling how they may perform in the future. An online repository of agricultural trial data has been established (http://www.agtrials.org), and populated with >3,000 different trials on varietal performance, conservation agriculture technologies, water and irrigation management, and pest and disease resistance, covering some 16 different crops. This work is ongoing in 2012. A thorough review has also been made in two major catchments that are crucial to regional food security (Nile and Volta) on their vulnerability to climate change from a water resources perspective, and an initial evaluation of adaptation options including water storage and water allocation policies. Methods have been developed to facilitate appropriate spatial targeting of promising adaptation technologies and climate smart farming system options, including the analogue tool (http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/), and analytical methods for better understanding the climate response of individual technologies. Some promising adaptation technologies are currently being tested in target sites to evaluate their potential in targeted future climates, including for example salt and heat tolerant rice in the Mekong, water-logging tolerant forage varieties in Latin America, and heat tolerant livestock in the Middle East. Output 1.1.2 Building of regional and national capacities to produce and communicate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for progressive climate change at the national level (e.g. through NAPAs) A range of methods and approaches have been developed that support communities, governments and development practitioners ensure that science based plans and strategies for adapting to progressive climate change are put in place. One highlight comes from Sri Lanka, where vulnerability assessment methodologies were used to quantify impacts of climate change on agricultural and water sectors, the results of which were a direct input into the development of the 2011 National Adaptation Plan (NAPA). Similar studies have been made in Thailand, Lao PDR, Vietnam, Philippines, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Kenya, and 2012 activities will strengthen in-country capacities to use these approaches and incorporate them into national plans and strategies. A number of training events were held in Africa and in South Asia providing training to researchers in NARS and universities on the use of crop models, analogue methods and vulnerability assessments. Output 1.1.3 New knowledge-synthesizing institutional arrangements, policies and mechanisms for improving the adaptive capacity of agricultural sector actors and those involved in managing the food system A policy baseline was developed in 6 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa by evaluating how climate adaptation is considered in current national level policies. Specific analyses of climate change impacts and policy response mechanisms were made in four countries in Central Asia, through a combination of agricultural modeling and household data analysis. Furthermore, a thorough review of institutional arrangements and policies that enhance adaptive capacity in maize and wheat systems was completed and published. An adaptation framework in supply chains was developed to facilitate adaptation processes in the food system, and applied to identify adaptation pathways in three countries, in a novel collaboration with Oxfam. Finally, the Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network (http://www.amkn.org) was launched as a portal for knowledge management of adaptation options and strategies at multiple scales. Output 1.1.4 Testing of participatory methods that are sensitive to gender, livelihoods categories and other social differentiators, to apply globally Three pilot community adaptation planning workshops were held in Kenya and Senegal, trialing a Participatory Social Return on Investment approach which understands socially disaggregated visions for adaptation, and goes about detailed mapping of actions required to achieve the adaptation measure. This method was developed in collaboration with local NGOs, and has resulted in 3 detailed plans for adaptation in communities in CCAFS benchmark sites. Gender disaggregated vulnerability assessments were also made at the community level in Guatemala, Jamaica and Colombia as part of an analysis of supply chain vulnerability assessment and adaptation priorities. Output 1.2.1 Understanding and evaluating the response of different varieties/crops to climate change in time and space, and generating comprehensive strategies for crop improvement through a combination of modelling, expert consultation and stakeholder dialogue Significant advances were made in developing methods and models for evaluating varietal-level responses to climate change for a range of crops. A new model for potato and sweet potato has been developed, and applied for several varieties of importance to sub-Saharan Africa. Likewise, Ecocrop DSSAT and CropSyst models have been further developed and applied widely on a number of crops across different regions and globally, including maize and beans in Central America, wheat in the Middle East, and sorghum in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. A white paper and conceptual paper were developed outlining the needs and priorities for pest and disease modeling in order to better understand priorities for biotic resistance under a changed climate, and reviews were made on the pest and disease risks associated with climate change on crops including maize, wheat, cassava and barley. Four chapters were published on breeding challenges in the face of climate change for bananas, beans, potato and cassava. Analyses were also developed for sorghum. The ORYZA 2000 model was used to identify the potential benefits of different crop breeding scenarios for rice in Asia, identifying substantial economic benefits in the development of a combined drought- and submergence- tolerant rice variety under future climate change. These initial assessments are to be subjected to more in-depth analyses during 2012. Output 1.2.2 Breeding strategies disseminated to key national agencies and research partners Results from this output are scheduled to happen later in the program’s implementation; however some preparatory work was achieved in 2011. A major workshop was held to develop visions for 2030 climate smart crops, which involved breeders form NARS and CGIAR centers involved in work on banana, beans, rice and sorghum. Output 1.2.3 Differential impact on different social groups of strategies for addressing abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climate change, variability and extremes are identified, evaluated and disseminated Socially differentiated varietal level preferences were evaluated for beans in Kenya and Malawi, showing significant gender-related differences in preference for drought resistant materials. This initial study has shown the importance of ensuring gender-differentiated strategies in breeding plans, and will be expanded to other crops in 2012. Output 1.3.1 New knowledge, guidelines and access to germplasm are provided for using genetic and species diversity to enhance adaptation, productivity and resilience to changing climate Projects implemented in multiple countries on a number of crops developed approaches for selecting and distributing germplasm that meets farmers’ needs and is likely to be adapted to future climates. In Ethiopia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) innovative climate modeling and geographic information system (GIS) tools were used to select germplasm of durum wheat and barley, taro and sweet potato from genebanks. Multi-location trials took place in Ethiopia for 100 varieties each of barley and durum wheat selected from 12,500 screened. Crop suitability maps were also developed. One project evaluated 200 samples of buckwheat and oat in ten different regions of China. In Bolivia and Malaysia, complementary research consisted in farmers screening and selecting germplasm of potato and rice (respectively), subsequently distributed for planting and evaluation. Additional studies carried out in Ethiopia, PNG, Malaysia and Bolivia focused on analyzing seed flows for various crops to understand better how traditional seed systems could be enhanced to facilitate distribution of seeds. Cultural factors influenced the way different kinds of seeds were shared in different locations. Evaluation work of genetic resources also identified germplasm with novel traits likely to be of importance for climate change adaptation. These include heat tolerant potato, chickpea, groundnut, pearl millet accessions, drought tolerant bean genotypes, and water-logging tolerant forage germplasm. Output 1.3.2 New information, knowledge, guidelines and germplasm are made available to farmers, breeders, local communities and scientists and promoted through knowledge sharing, peer reviewed articles, information systems and media Socioeconomic surveys in Ethiopia and Papua New Guinea probed farmers’ knowledge of climate change and its impacts, as well as seed systems and barriers to accessing seed. In Malaysia and Bolivia, information was collected on local practices for seed selection and production management of rice and potatoes that could be used for climate change adaptation. An international training course was also offered in Nepal to train trainers in tools for agrobiodiversity assessment and monitoring. Output 1.3.3 – Policies to enable access to and use of genetic resources for climate change adaptation and diffusion of adapted germplasm Activities under this output were articulated around three objectives: 1) understanding which policies impact on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (PGRFA) users’ ability to access and use genetic resources for climate change adaptation; 2) supporting the adoption of policies and legal frameworks that facilitate the exchange of germplasm potentially useful for climate change adaptation, in particular the multilateral system (MLS) of access and benefit-sharing under the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture; and 3) documenting and publishing experiences and lessons learnt from activities under 1 and 2, and from previous relevant Bioversity projects in the same area, ensuring that this information was made available to relevant international policy making bodies. Under objective 1, research focused on gathering information about how germplasm flows between the CGIAR Centres and their partners, and the factors facilitating or hindering this process. Preliminary results have been documented in a CCAFS research paper which will be submitted for publication in early February 2012. Under Objective 2, participant countries were selected and a “University Platform” was created, in collaboration with three partner universities, aimed at providing research support to advance quality research on topics related to the implementation of the Treaty’s MLS on access and benefit-sharing, and access to information and technologies related to germplasm use, including the use of the Climate Analogues tool to identify potentially adapted germplasm in each of the eight project countries. Several publications, including a multi-authored peer reviewed book, and an article in a scientific journal, have been completed under Objective 3. Bioversity submitted reports and research papers to the FAO Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture and the Governing Body of the International Treaty, and organized several side events during the bi-annual regular sessions of these international bodies. The written submissions and side events introduced the CCAFS programme and highlighted the importance of ensuring the flow of genetic material necessary for climate change adaptation. Theme 2 2011 Annual Technical Report Publications Refereed articles Garrett, K. A., A. D. M. Dobson, J. Kroschel, B. Natarajan, S. Orlandini, H. E. Z. Tonnang, C. Valdivia. The effects of climate variability and the color of weather time series on agricultural diseases and pests, and on decisions for their management. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, In revision. Hansen, J.W., Mason, S., Sun, L., Tall, A., 2011. Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Experimental Agriculture 47:205-240. Jarvis, A., Lau, C., Cook, S., Wollenberg, E., Hansen, J., Bonilla, O., Challinor, A., 2011. An integrated adaptation and mitigation framework for developing agricultural research: synergies and trade- offs. Experimental Agriculture 47:185-203. Vermeulen, S., Zougmoré, R., Wollenberg, E., Thornton, P., Nelson, G., Kristjanson, P., Kinyangi, J., Jarvis, A., Hansen, J., Challinor, A., Campbell, B., Aggarwal, P., 2011. Climate change, agriculture and food security: a global partnership to link research and action for low-income agricultural producers and consumers. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4:1-6. Vermeulen, S.J., Aggarwal, P.K., Ainslie, A., Angelone, C., Campbell, B.M., Challinor, A.J., Hansen, J.W., Ingram, J.S.I., Jarvis, A., Kristjanson, P., Lau, C., Nelson, G.C., Thornton, P.K., Wollenberg, E., 2011. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environmental Science and Policy 15:136-144. Miscellaneous publications Campbell, B.M., Vermeulen, S., Hansen, J.W., Jarvis, A., Thornton, P., Wollenberg, E., 2011. How can we feed nine billion people while reducing GHG emissions? In: Proceedings of the Global conference on Global Warming 2011, 11-14 July 2011, Lisbon, Portugal. de Nicola, F., Hill, R.V., Carter, M., Choularton, R., Hansen, J. and Osgood, D., 2011. Index Insurance for Managing Climate-Related Agricultural Risk: Toward a Strategic Research Agenda. Workshop Report, December 2011, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC. de Nicola, F., Hill, R.V., 2011. Index Insurance for Managing Climate-Related Agricultural Risk: Background Literature Review. December 2011, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC. Hansen, J.W., Coffey, K., 2011. Policy brief: Agro-climate tools for a new climate-smart agriculture. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, New York, USA. Hellmuth M.E., Mason S.J., Vaughan C., van Aalst M.K. and Choularton R. (eds), 2011. A Better Climate for Disaster Risk Management. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, New York, USA. Krishnamurthy, P.K., Hobbs, C., Siemon R. Hollema, Richard J. Choularton, Krishna Pahari. 2011. Climate risk and food security in Nepal: Analysis of climate impacts on food security components. Mohammed Kadi, Leonard Njogu Njau, John Mwikya, Andre Kamga, 2011. The State of Climate Information Services for Agriculture and Food Security in East African Countries. Mohammed Kadi, Leonard Njogu Njau, John Mwikya, Andre Kamga, 2011. The State of Climate Information Services for Agriculture and Food Security in West African Countries. CCAFS Working Paper no. 4. Wollenberg, E. (ed) 2011. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Agriculture Science Workshop Report. Project reports Balaji, V., Craufurd, P., 2011. Emerging trends in the IGP countries in relation to delivery and exchange of climate information in institutionalized agri-extension systems and through ICT4D. Bell, M., Hansen J.W. 2011. Historical global and regional gridded meteorological data sets for agricultural modeling. Daniel Maxwell, William Masters, Peter Walker, Patrick Webb, John Parker, Arthur Ha, 2011. A Scoping Study on Climate Change and Food Security. Das, N., Ines, A.V.M., Norton, M., 2011. Assimilation of Remote Sensing Data With a Crop Model to Improve Crop Yield Forecasting Dinku. T. 2011. Development of Improved Daily Rainfall and Temperature Time Series over Ethiopia Garrett, K.A., 2011. Priorities to address pests and diseases in agricultural adaptation to climate change: East Africa, West Africa, and the Indo-Gangetic Plains. Gerrit Hoogenboom, Melba Salazar. 2011. Interim Report: Crop and Rangeland Forecasting Tools and Platforms Preliminary Review. Grimes, D., Tarnavsky, E., Maidment, R., 2011. Progress report: Rainfall Data Generation and Analysis for African Meteorology. Hurst, M., Jensen, N., Pedersen, S.H., Sharma, A., Zambriski, J.A. 2011. Changing climate adaptation strategies of Boran pastoralists in southern Ethiopia. CCAFS Working Paper No. 15. Jost, C.C., 2011. Delivery Models for Climate Information in East and West Africa. MacHarris, J., Coffey, K. 2011. Improving Management of Climate Impacts on Food Security: Toward a Strategic Research Agenda. Matthew Hurst, Nathan Jensen, Sarah H. Pedersen, Asha Sharma, Jennifer A. Zambriski, 2011. Changing Climate Adaptation Strategies of Boran Pastoralists in Southern Ethiopia Ndiaye, O., 2011. Communicating the probabilistic seasonal forecast for a better farming management and decisions. Ndiaye, O., 2011. Assessing seasonal and intra-seasonal skill at Kaffrine station in Senegal. Kaffrine et environnante. Ramakrishna, Y.S., 2011. Current status of Agrometeorological Services in South Asia with special emphasis on Indo-Gangetic Plains. Robertson, A., 2011. Summary technical report of the seasonal climate predictability for northern India (Punjab or Haryana, and Bihar), Nepal and Bangladesh CCAFS Asia benchmark target regions. Sheffield, J., 2011. Progress report: Development and evaluation of long-term, high-resolution, daily meteorological data for West/East Africa by merging in-situ, remote sensing and model data sources. Reported by Centers WorldFish: Braun, M., Saroar, M. 2011. Initial Participatory Research Assessment for Participatory Action Research on Climate Risk Management. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Field Report. Timmers B. 2011. 44 Climate Change and Variability and Fish Value Chains in Uganda. Penang, Malaysia: The WorldFish Center. Draft Report. CIMMYT: Erenstein, O., Kassie, G.T., Langyintuo, A., Mwangi, W., 2011. Characterization of Maize Producing Households in Drought Prone Regions of Eastern Africa. Erenstein, O., Kassie, G.T., Mwangi, W., 2011. Comparative analysis of maize based livelihoods in drought prone regions of eastern Africa: Adaptation lessons for climate change. Paper presented at the conference: Increasing Agricultural Productivity & Enhancing Food Security in Africa: New Challenges and Opportunities, 1-3 November 2011, Africa Hall, UNECA , Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Hailemariam, T., M. Kassie and B. Shiferaw (2011) On the Joint Estimation of Multiple Adoption Decisions: The Case of Sustainable Agricultural Technologies and Practices in Ethiopia. Paper •—„‹––‡†–‘ ǯ•ʹͺ–Š”‹‡‹ƒŽ‘ˆ‡”‡…‡ȋ—‰—•–ͳͺ-24, 2012), Brazil. Kassie, M., S. Wagura and B. Shiferaw (2011) Gender and Food Security: Empirical Evidence from ‡›ƒǤƒ’‡”•—„‹––‡†–‘ ǯ•ʹͺ–Š”‹‡‹ƒŽ‘ˆ‡”‡…‡ȋ—‰—•–ͳͺ-24, 2012), Brazil. Mittal, Surabhi. 2011. Modern ICT for agricultural development and risk management in smallholder agriculture in India. CIMMYT Socioeconomics Program Working Paper (draft) Verhulst, N., Sayre, K.D., Vargas, M., Crossa, J., Deckers, J., Raes, D., Govaerts, B., 2011. Wheat yield and tillage-straw management system × year interaction explained by climatic co-variables for an irrigated bed planting system in northwestern Mexico. Field Crops Research, 124, 347–356, DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2011.07.002 ICRAF: van Noordwijk M, Onyango L, Kalinganire A, Joshi L, Hoang MH, Ndichu N and Jamnadass R, 2011. Rural livelihoods in changing, multifunctional landscapes. In: Van Noordwijk M, Hoang MH, Neufeldt H, Öborn I, Yatich T, (eds.) How Trees And People Can Co-adapt to Climate Change: Reducing Vulnerability Through Multifunctional Agroforestry Landscapes. Nairobi: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), pp 36-62 http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/publication?do=view_pub_detail&pub_no=BC0319-101 Š‘”Žƒ•‘ƒ†‡—ˆ‡Ž†– ǣ‡†—…‹‰—„•‹•–‡…‡ ƒ”‡”•ǯ—Ž‡”ƒ„‹Ž‹–›–‘Ž‹ƒ–‡hange: Evaluating the potential contributions of agroforestry in western Kenya. ICRAF Occasional Paper 14. Nairobi . Submitted to Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. Gebrekirstos A, H. Neufeldt & R. Mitlöhner (2011) Exploring climatic signals in stable isotopes of Sclerocarya birrea tree ring chronologies from the Sahel region in West Africa. Julia Krepkowski, Achim Bräuning, Aster Gebrekirstos Growth dynamics and potential for crossdating and multi-century climate reconstruction of Podocarpus falcatus in Ethiopia (under review) Gebrekirstos, A., Bräuning, A., van Noordwijk, M., Mitlöhner, R., (2011). Understanding past, present, and future climate changes from East to West Africa. Agricultural Innovations for Sustainable Development 3(2): 77-86. ILRI: Karanja, S., Diarra, L., Notenbaert, A., Herrero, M. 2011 Coping strategies and vulnerability of households in Mali and Mozambique. BMZ Project report: Supporting the vulnerable: Increasing the adaptive capacity of agro-pastoralists to climatic change in West and Southern Africa using a trans- disciplinary research approach. ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya, 91 p. Bryan, E, Ringler, C, Okoba, B, Roncoli, C, Silvestri, S and Herrero M. 2011. Coping with Climate Variability and Adapting to Climate Change in Kenya: Household and Community Strategies and ‡–‡”‹ƒ–•Ǥ‡’‘”––‘–Š‡‘”Ž†ƒǤ‡’‘”–͵ƒ‘ˆ–Š‡’”‘Œ‡…–Dz†ƒ’–ƒ–‹‘‘ˆƒŽŽŠ‘Ž†‡” ‰”‹…—Ž–—”‡–‘Ž‹ƒ–‡Šƒ‰‡‹‡›ƒdzǤ  – KARI - U of Georgia – ILRI. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 63 p. Silvestri S., Bryan E., Ringler C., Herrero M., Okoba B., In press. Climate change perception and adaptation of agro-pastoral communities in Kenya. 2011. Regional Environmental Change. IITA: Beed F (2011). The impact of climate change on …‘—–”‹‡•ǯ‹–‡”†‡’‡†‡…‡ˆ‘”‹…”‘„‹ƒŽ‰‡‡–‹… resources for agriculture. Chapter 5. Background Study Paper No. 48. p 38-58 and 74-78. Commission on Genetic Resources (FAO). ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/meeting/017/ak532e.pdf Beed F, Benedetti A, Cardinali G, Chakraborty S, Dubois T, Garrett K and Halewood M (2011). Climate change and micro-organism genetic resources for food and agriculture: state of knowledge, risks and opportunities. Background Study Paper No. 57, Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, prepared for 13th Regular Session. http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/022/mb392e.pdf Hoeschle-Zeledon, I. (2011). Climate change and plant health, in: R4D Review, volume 6, pages 6-11, ISSN 2071-3681, 2011. Bhattacharjee, R., Ntare, B. R., Otoo, E. and Yanda, P. Z. (2011). Regional impacts of climate change: Africa. In: Shyam Singh Yadav, Jerry L. Hatfield, Robert Redden, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Anthony Hall (Eds.), Crop Adaptation to Climate Change. pages 66-77, chapter 3.3, Wiley-Blackwell, ISBN 978-0-8138-2016-3, 2011. Muranaka, S., Fatokun, C. and Boukar, O. (2011). Stability of Striga gesnerioides resistance mechanism in cowpea under high- infestation level, low soil fertility and drought stresses. In: Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment, volume 9, number 2, pages 313-318, ISSN Online: 1459-0263, 2011. Nicol, J.M., Turner S.J, Coyne, D.L., den Nijs, L., Hockland, S. & Tahna Maafi, Z. 2011. Current nematode threats to world agriculture In: J. Jones, G. Gheysen and C. Fenoll (Eds), Genomics and Molecular Genetics of Plant-Nematode Interactions. Springer, pp. 21-43. Njab, M. R. (2011). The effect of temperature on the biology of the banana aphid (Hemiptera: Aphididae), vector of banana bunchy top virus. Fifth year thesis, University of Dschang, Cameroon. Registered number: CM04-06ASA0077. 60pp. ICRISAT: Dixit, P.N., Cooper, P.J.M., Dimes, J., and Rao, K.P.C., 2011. Adding value to field-based agronomic research through climate risk assessment: a case study of maize production in Kitale, Kenya. Experimental Agriculture. Cambridge, 47 (2), 317-338. Rao, K.P.C., Ndegwa, K.Kizito W.G., and Oyoo, A. 2011. Climate variability and change: Farmer perceptions and understanding of intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and associated risk in semi- arid Kenya. Experimental Agriculture. 47: 1-25. Case Studies Case study 1: Consultation with Global Food Security Decision-Makers Leads to High Impact Case Studies on Opportunities for More Timely Food Security Interventions in Ethiopia Case type: Non-research partnerships Brief description of the activity Effective engagement and collaboration with international, regional, and national stakeholders is essential to the success of The‡ʹǯ•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡‘ Food System-level interventions. In order to …‘’Ž‹‡–Š‡‡ʹǯ•’‹‘‡‡”‹‰™‘”‘ technical analysis of climate information and food security, the information and tools must be package in a way that stakeholders can apply them. In September 2011, in partnership with the Food Security Information Network (FAO, WFP, IFPRI), CCAFS held a Global Food Security Stakeholder Consultation with 30 leaders in food security information and response to identifying priority issues, gaps (e.g., knowledge, methods, tools, evidence) and opportunities, where CCAFS research might make a valued contribution. The consultation was attended by the leaders from WFP VAM, USAID FEWSNET, FAO and key regional bodies (SAARC, ASEAN, EAC, and ECOWAS). Result of activity The consultation highlighted specific areas of high demand for research and policy advice related to food systems and climate variability. The topic identified as highest demand was research that can shed light on the decision-making processes, mechanisms, and frameworks used to trigger emergency response. In follow up discussions, representatives expressed frustration that advanced warning available prior to a climate driven disaster did not trigger early responses from donors, humanitarian agencies, and national governments. Practitioners also noted that evidence of the potential value of advanced information and the types of information that decision-makers need has not changed the status quo. With further input from FEWSNET, FAO, WFP and IFPRI, CCAFS decided to act quickly on a case study on government food security decision- making in Ethiopia. A preparatory study reviewed decision processes and calendars for government intervention in the face of climate-related food production shortfalls, and consulted with key decision makers at the national level and in two priority states. The study identified sources of information that drive key decisions, the risks associated with essential decisions along the pathway, and interaction with donors and humanitarian groups across the decision-making calendar at national and state levels. In 2012 and 2013, CCAFS will provide demand-driven policy analysis and support for early response mechanisms, and package results and lessons for up-scaling though the Africa Union with the support of collaborating organizations. Partners involved and their role USAID-FEWSNET, FAO, WFP, IFPRI, TANGO International, SAARC, ASEAN, EAC, and ECOWAS attended the consultation. GEOSAS (Ethiopia) led the preparatory Ethiopian case study. FEWSNET, WFP, FAO and IFPRI fostered the connection with FSIN and provided guidance on the case study. Case study 2: CCAFS Works to Strengthen Climate Information for Agriculture through the "Climate Services Partnership;" and Explores with USAID Up-scaling Potential of Mali's Innovative Agrometeorology Advisory program Case type: Non-research partnerships Brief description of the activity ƒŽ‹ǯ•͵Ͳ-year-old agrometeorlogical advisory program provides farmers with monitored and forecast weather information, village rain gauges and management advisories. The program has been maintained by the Government of Mali since ex–‡”ƒŽˆ—†‹‰•–‘’’‡†ǤƒŽ‹ǯ•’”‘‰”ƒ‹•‘ˆ–‡ cited as a model for other African countries, and has attracted the attention of development donors and other meteorological services in West Africa. CCAFS has partnered with co-sponsor USAID, the IRI and West African partners in an evaluation of ƒŽ‹ǯ•‹‘˜ƒ–‹˜‡’”‘‰”ƒǡ™‹–Šƒ˜‹‡™–‘•…ƒŽ‹‰—’‡Ž•‡™Š‡”‡‹‡•–ˆ”‹…ƒǤŠ‡‘‰‘‹‰ evaluation will provide evidence of the use and benefits of the information and advisories at the village level; and provide insights about how aspects of the program have contributed to its uptake, impact and sustainability. The Mali study is one of the flagship activities of the new Climate Services Partnership (CSP), which was launched at the International Conference on Climate Services (New York, 17-19 October 2011). The CSP provides a platform for linking CCAFS – a recognized sponsor of CSP – with a global network of climate service providers, researchers, interested donors, and the UN's Global Framework for Climate Services. Results of the activity CCAFS input in a series of Adaptation Partnership ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ™‘”•Š‘’•…‘–”‹„—–‡†–‘ ǯ• interest in building on the Mali experience. Co-sponsorship and productive collaboration in the ongoing Mali study has cemented a pƒ”–‡”•Š‹’™‹–Š ǯ•†ƒ’–ƒ–‹‘ƒ”–‡”•Š‹’ǤŠ‡ƒ…–‹˜‹–› helped connect CCAFS and elevate its profile with a broader community of potential partners through the CSP. As a result of the USAID and CSP partnerships, Theme 2 has expanded its emphasis on climate services for agriculture and food security in CCAFS regions, through learning from other successful case studies and fostering South-South exchange between South Asia and Africa. Partners and their role CCAFS leads the institutional component of –Š‡•–—†›ǡƒ†‡Ž‹•–‡†  ƒ†ƒŽ‹ǯ• •–‹–—–‡ˆ‘” Rural Economy (IER) to co-design and support the village-level assessment. The USAID Adaptation Partnership leads the village component, and (via its contractor IRG) co-funds the evaluation. The IR Ž‡ƒ†•–Š‡ƒ••‡••‡–‘ˆ–Š‡’”‘‰”ƒǯ•…Ž‹ƒ–‡‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘Ǥ  ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–‡•‹–Š‡ institutional and climate information components. Case study 3: Participatory Studies in Kenya and Senegal Train Farmers to Use Seasonal Forecasts and Examine Impacts on Management Case type: Capacity strengthening Brief description of the activity Seasonal climate forecasts can, in principle, provide farmers opportunity to adopt improved technology, intensify production and replenish soil nutrients when climatic conditions are favorable; and to more effectively protect families and farms against adverse extremes. However, ™‹†‡•’”‡ƒ†—•‡Šƒ•„‡‡Ž‹‹–‡†„›‹•ƒ–…Š„‡–™‡‡ˆƒ”‡”•ǯ‡‡†•ƒ†–Š‡†‡•‹‰‘ˆƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ forecast information, and by the complexity of probabilistic forecast information. CCAFS is working to improve the design and communication of seasonal forecast information for smallholder farmers and other local agricultural decision-makers. A workshop-based process for training farmers to understand and respond to downscaled, probabilistic seasonal forecasts was piloted at CCAFS sites at Wote, Kenya and Kaffrine, Senegal. The process starts with historic variability, and walks participants through a process of deriving, understanding and interpreting forecasts as a shifted probability distribution. Culturally relevant analogies help participants relate seasonal forecast use to other decisions that they make with uncertain information. Breakout discussion groups facilitate co-learning, and identify promising management responses. Results of the activity Farmers demonstrated their understanding of forecasts and identified a set of reasonable management responses during breakout groups. However, separating breakout groups by gender in Wote revealed that older women in particular struggled with the way the probabilistic information was presented. Feedback will guide future training workshops and materials. Ongoing evaluations will document management responses to the information. Partnership with national meteorological services and agricultural research systems strengthened their interest and exposed them to opportunities to improve the design and communication of seasonal forecasts. World Vision, one of the w‘”Ž†ǯ•Žƒ”‰‡•–Š—ƒ‹–ƒ”‹ƒ ǯ•ǡƒ•‡† –‘’ƒ”–‡”‹•…ƒŽ‹‰—’–Š‡ communication of seasonal forecasts in Senegal and Tanzania. Partners and their role The Senegalese National Weather Agency (ANAMS) led the work at Kaffrine and provided climate information. Partners included the district agricultural extension officer from the national agency for agricultural and rural advice (ANCAR) who enlisted participants, the Ministry of Agriculture (SDDR), and an economist from the national agricultural research institute (ISRA) who guided the evaluation. In Kenya, ICRISAT led the effort and linked it with projects on forecast-based management advisories. The Kenyan Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) led the workshops, in partnership with the district agricultural extension office, Kenya Meteorological Department, University of Nairobi and ILRI. Synthesis of Theme 2 Activities Output 2.1.1 Synthesized knowledge and evidence on innovative risk management strategies that foster resilient rural livelihoods and sustain a food secure environment Knowledge synthesis is essential for translating the CGIAR's place-based research into international public goods, and contributes to CCAFS' coordination role across the CGIAR and an expanded set of partners. Theme 2 synthesis activities distilled knowledge from field research, literature, and consultations with experts and practitioners. Topics included characterizing climate risks to major production systems, indicators of vulnerability, farmers' risk management knowledge and strategies, and promising risk management innovations such as index-based insurance. Results of these activities set the foundation for strategic research across the CGIAR and partners, and strategic interventions with rural communities in target regions. Qualitative and quantitative assessments of current formal and informal risk management strategies have been linked to mapping/classification of climate risk in all CCAFS baseline sites, which was complemented by supplemental surveys by CGIAR centers in eight countries covering CCAFS regions. The goal of these studies is to measure climate related risk, document management strategies, and understand information sources that drive risk management strategy. CIMMYT has completed mapping and characterization in 120 households in the IGP. ICRISAT has conducted in- depth climatic analysis at different scales (national, regional district, and village) to explore long- term climatic trends comparing this data to socio-economic indicators and farm surveys to better understand grass root level adaptation strategies in six partner countries. ILRI led a comparative study that documents how agro-pastoralists are coping with climate risk in West Africa. ICRAF conducted field research in western Kenya to investigate how recent climate related shocks and stresses have affected subsistence-farming communities. World Fish studied the impact of climate vulnerability on fish value chains in Uganda to reveal context-specific response strategies. While the bulk of this work covered indigenous strategies, it also evaluated new technological interventions associated with ICT, including a CYMMIT study on ICT-based and other information models to manage climate-related food crises and price volatility in East Africa and the Indo-Ganetic Plains. •–”‡‰–Š‘ˆ ǯ•…”‘••-center approach is the ability to synthesize the results from these studies and coordinate a coherent strategy to address demand and opportunities identified through research across centers. A workshop, cosponsored by I4 and hosted by IFPRI, engaged representatives of most of the major research groups working on index insurance for agriculture. Objectives were to identify priority gaps that limit the benefits of index-based insurance to the rural poor in the developing world, contribute to a strategic research agenda, and inform CCAFS partnership and value-addition strategy. A systematic review on the role of diversification in climate risk management and adaptation is in progress. The review, led by Bioversity, with collaborators from three other Centers and two universities, will produce a report and engage a broader community in a planned workshop. A synthesis analysis of indigenous risk management strategies across CCAFS baseline sites is started in late 2011 with a report die due in early March 2012. Future projects will synthesize results from the baseline survey (ICRAF/ILRI) along with related surveys conducted by CYMMIT, World Fish, and ICRISAT. Output 2.1.2 Analytical framework and tools to target and evaluate risk management innovations for resilient rural livelihoods and improved food security Š‡‡ʹ…‘ŽŽƒ„‘”ƒ–‡†™‹–ŠͶǤͳ‘ƒ”‡˜‹‡™ȋDz”‡˜‹‡™‘ˆˆƒ”Š‘—•‡Š‘Ž†‘†‡Ž•™‹–Šƒˆ‘…—•‘ food security, climate change adaptation, risk managem‡–ƒ†‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘dzȌ–Šƒ–™‹ŽŽ‹ˆ‘” collaborative development, in 2012, of a framework and tools for modeling the impact of adaptation interventions on farm household risk and resilience. Output 2.1.3 Development; and demonstration of the feasibility, acceptability and impacts; of innovative risk management strategies and actions for rural communities Participatory action research on climate risk management is at varying stages of development across CCAFS benchmark locations. At Kaffrine, the Senegalese National Weather Agency (ANAMS) led work on training farmers and other stakeholders to understand and apply downscaled, probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts; and evaluate how farmers are acting on them. The work at Wote, Kenya, led by ICRISAT, combined a similar approach to communicating probabilistic seasonal forecasts, with forecast-based advisories; and applied an experimental design to assess their impact, alone and in combination, on management and livelihoods. Work in Borana, Ethiopia and Khulna, Bangladesh focused on partnership development, and participatory diagnosis of needs and opportunities for managing climate-related risk and fostering climate-resilient livelihoods. CIMMYT has conducted on-farm trials on options for system diversification and intensification in •›•–‡•‹–Š‡ Ǥ ƒ”‡”•ǯ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–‘”›ˆ‹‡Ž†–”‹ƒŽ•ˆ‘”‡š’Ž‘”‹‰‘’–‹‘•ˆ‘”†‹˜‡”•‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹‘ through intensification have been undertaken using innovative management options (CA, raised beds, intercrops, relay crops). Sugarcane intercropped with wheat, garlic, onion, chickpea etc. increased farm income by US$400-1000 ha-1 in North-west IGP. Whereas in eastern IGP, maize intercropped with legumes using raised beds have been found much remunerative. Relay planting of wheat in cotton in western IGP has resulted in significant gain (US$350 ha-1) in farm profitability. CIMMYT also led on-farm trials on options for system diversification and intensification in CA systems in EA. Intercropping, relay cropping ƒ†Dz†‘—„Ž‡-interc”‘’’‹‰dzȋ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ‹–‡”…”‘’’‹‰ followed by relay cropping) to maximize resource use efficiency (mainly water) are being tested on-station (4 in Ethiopia and 4 in Kenya) and on-farm (60 in Ethiopia and 48 in Kenya). WorldFish conducted a study to investigate observed and projected impacts of climate change in coastal portions of Bangladesh, one of the most vulnerable countries in the world. Climate change will exacerbate existing natural and manmade vulnerabilities to flooding, waterlogging and salinization of land and water. The objective of this work was to analyze the vulnerability context of people in four villages in southern Bangladesh. The report suggests specific intervention strategies, including providing advanced climate/weather information, as well as the use of index-based insurance to hedge against flood risk in aquaculture systems. Output 2.1.4 Tailor and disseminate research results for evidence-based policy and technical support for farm- to community-level risk management strategies ICRISAT c‘†—…–‡†ƒ•‡”‹‡•‘ˆ…‘—–”›•’‡…‹ˆ‹…’‘Ž‹…›†‹ƒŽ‘‰—‡•‘Dz—‹Ž†‹‰…Ž‹ƒ–‡”‡•‹Ž‹‡– ƒ‰”‹…—Ž–—”‡‹•‹ƒdzˆ‘””‹ƒƒǡŠƒ‹Žƒ†ƒ†‹‡–ƒǤŠ‡’‘Ž‹…›•–ƒ–‡‡–•™‡”‡…‘˜‡›‡†‹ƒ September 2011 workshop to the key persons from ministries, government and non-governmental organizations as well as development agencies belonging to the respective countries. ICRAF held a workshop with FAO and World Bank on Climate Smart Agriculture, 26-28 July 2011 in Rome. The workshop was held with the purpose of discussing the scope and outline of a Sourcebook on Climate Smart Agriculture and a related web portal, as well as the modalities for an international partnership to support, further develop and transmit climate smart knowledge to stakeholders. The meeting was attended in total by around 100 participants, of which 25 were external experts and 75 staff of FAO, the World Bank, IFAD and WFP. See: http://www.climatesmartagriculture.org/2979501142282b2e217996d2d41b42c1e0cb63.pdf Output 2.1.5 Identify and evaluate differential impact of agricultural risk management strategies on different social groups, particularly women and men, and communicate findings through technical and policy support activities Œ‘‹– ƒ†  •–—†›ǡ–‹–Ž‡†Dz ‡†‡”ƒ† ‘‘†‡…—rity: Empirical Evidence from ‡›ƒǡdz–‡•–‡†‹ˆˆ‡ƒŽ‡-headed households (FFHs) are more likely to be food insecure compared to male-headed households (MHHs). The probit model (binary food security) results show that FHHs are 13% less likely to be food secure than MHHs. However, using covariate matching methods the food security gap between FHHs and MHHs declines to 1.3- 2.8%, indicating that the remaining food security gap (the part that cannot be explained by observed characteristics) may be attributed to less observable factors, such as discrimination and other non-observable factors including ability and motivation. S‡‡DzGender and Food Security: Empirical Evidence from Kenyadz (http://iaae.confex.com/iaae/portal.cgi?e=m.kassie@cgiar.org&p=672227&r=norole) Output 2.2.1 Enhanced knowledge of impacts of climate fluctuations on food security, and how to use advance information to best manage climate-related risk through food delivery, trade, crisis response and post-crisis recovery A three-country study of relationships between historic climate variability and components of food security (e.g., production, staple food prices, rural incomes, humanitarian assistance), led by WFP, ’”‘†—…‡†ƒ”‡’‘”–ˆ‘”‡’ƒŽȋDzŽ‹ƒ–‡”‹•ƒ†ˆ‘‘†•‡…—”‹–›‹‡’ƒŽǣƒŽ›•‹•‘ˆ…Ž‹ƒ–‡‹’ƒ…–• ‘ˆ‘‘†•‡…—”‹–›…‘’‘‡–•dzȌ‹…Ž—†‡†ƒ detailed analysis of livelihoods and revealed that regional patterns of food insecurity, particularly in the most vulnerable areas in western Nepal, are highly sensitive to climate trends. It also found that it is likely that climate change will exacerbate livelihood vulnerabilities and food insecurity trends in the most at-risk areas. The report concluded that efforts to mediate climate impacts on food security in Nepal should therefore prioritize these regions. Reports in preparation for Senegal and Ethiopia are expected in April 2012. Output 2.2.2 Synthesized knowledge and evidence of the impacts of alternative risk management interventions within the food system on food security and rural livelihoods, to inform policy and practice A consultation with international food security stakeholders (Output 2.2.3) led to a shift in focus – from a food security intervention costing study, toward a demand-driven process focused on government food security decision-making in Ethiopia. A preparatory study reviewed decision processes and calendars for government intervention in the face of climate-related food production shortfalls, and consulted with key decision makers at the national level and in two priority states. The fieldwork for this research has concluded and a full report is expected in March 2012. The Global Consultation also helped to build a partnership strategy with FEWSNET, WFP, FAO, and the African Union, which will provide the backing of key institutions to scale up results from this study. Output 2.2.3 Platform and tools for sharing knowledge and fostering improved coordination among food crisis response, the market-based food delivery system, and agricultural research and development A workshop in Nairobi brought about 30 leaders in food security information and response to identifying priority issues, gaps (e.g., knowledge, methods, tools, evidence) and opportunities, where CCAFS research might make a valued contribution. It followed and built on the first Consultative Conference of the new Food Security Information Network (FSIN) Consultative Conference. This report along with regional food security stakeholder consultations will inform strategy for future CCAFS work on food systems. The workshop also helped to shore up partnerships with FEWSNET, WFP, and FAO for future work in this area, including the work initiated in 2011 (2.2.2) in collaboration with WFP and national government partners in Ethiopia. Output 2.2.4 Identify and evaluate differential impact of tools and strategies for climate risk management on different social groups, particularly women and men, and inject findings into support to agencies No activities were planned or reported in 2011 under this output. Output 2.3.1 Improved climate information tools and products to support management of agricultural and food security risk A set of web-„ƒ•‡†ƒƒŽ›–‹…ƒŽDzƒ’”‘‘•dz–Šƒ–‹…‘”’‘”ƒting the APHRODITE gridded daily rainfall data set, was developed to facilitate visualization and analysis of agriculturally-important rainfall statistics and their predictability at a seasonal lead time. Analysis of the data indicate that there is a promising degree of predictability of summer monsoon rainfall at CCAFS sites in India (Punjab or Haryana, and Bihar) and Nepal, using different climate models for eastern and western sites, but that there seems to be little evidence of seasonal prediction skill in Bangladesh. Gaps in space and time in historic meteorological records, and major shortcomings in existing gridded data sets that incorporate satellite data, are major obstacles to several promising options for reducing vulnerability to climate. A set of partners (AGRHYMET, Ethiopia NMA, U. Reading, Princeton U., IRI) was commissioned to develop, test and apply methods to reconstruct historic daily weather data needed for agricultural modeling and adaptation interventions. Initial results support the feasibility of reconstructing daily historic observations for most agriculturally relevant meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature, dewpoint, potential evapotranspiration), and suggest that the blended daily rainfall product captures actual rainfall better than existing satellite or interpolated products. CIMMYT identified maize germplasm that tolerates multiple, climate-related biotic and abiotic stresses, that are potentially suited to resource-poor, climate-vulnerable farmers. The stress- resilient germplasm will be further tested in 2012 and used to develop multi-stress resilient products for Asia and Africa. ICRISAT and partners developed decision aids that integrate locally relevant information on climate, soil, crop and markets for climate risk management in planning farm operations. Three spreadsheet-based tools support quick characterization of historic climate data (observed and generated), and are currently being updated to make them more user-friendly. Ex-ante analyses of risks and returns associated with production technologies, based on crop simulation and historic climate data suggest that substantial risk may act as a major constraint to adoption in for of the five districts studied in Kenya. Project partners from Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Madagascar; and graduate students from Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia were trained to use long-term climate records, stochastic weather generators and crop simulation to analyze impacts of a variable climate on crops and production practices. ICRAF and partners assessed the feasibility of using stable isotopes in tree rings to reconstruct the climate of the past five centuries in Eastern and West Africa. The resulting proxy records will enhance understanding of how the climate has varied in Africa in response to drivers such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and inform agroforestry management and adaptation options. Output 2.3.2 Synthesized knowledge and evidence on institutional arrangements and processes for enhancing climate services for agriculture and food security CCAFS partnered with co-sponsor USAID and the IRI in ƒ‘‰‘‹‰‡˜ƒŽ—ƒ–‹‘‘ˆƒŽ‹ǯ•‹‘˜ƒ–‹˜‡ and well-established agrometeorological advisory program with a view toward up-scaling its positive elements elsewhere in West Africa. Theme 2 became a sponsor and member of the Coordinating Group of the new Climate Services Partnership, which provides a platform for engaging a global network of climate service providers, researchers, interested donors, and the UN's Global Framework for Climate Services. ICRISAT and partners developed and tested agricultural management advisories as a way to help farmers use seasonal forecast in five districts of Eastern Kenya. Nearly all participating farmers rated the ƒ†˜‹•‘”‹‡•ƒ•Dz‡š–”‡‡Ž›—•‡ˆ—Žǡdzƒ†‘•–‡š’”‡••‡†™‹ŽŽ‹‰‡••–‘’ƒ›‹ˆ”‡“—‹”‡†Ǥ In semi-arid Zimbabwe, ICRISAT worked with partners to test seasonal forecast information delivered to farmers alone, and in combination with advice, and advice plus participatory modeling of crop management options. Analysis, using a participatory farm management approach, indicated that the enhanced information treatments contributed to adoption of forecast information for farm decision-making. Surveys and focus group discussions showed that farmer perceptions of climate change can be inconsistent with climate data, although the data supported perceptions of increasing temperature. In Andhra Pradesh, India, ICRISAT produced drought maps for farmers, and estimated surface water available to meet village requirements and runoff. They provide daily rainfall data and advisories to farmers through ICT-based village knowledge centers. Long-term cropping system experimental data were simulated to characterize risk, and analyzed to provide farmer recommendations based on ENSO state in two districts. Output 2.3.3 Improved knowledge, tools, data sets and platforms for monitoring and predicting agricultural production and biological threats, and informing management, in response to climate fluctuations A study by the IRI and NASA-JPL developed and tested methods for assimilating remote sensing vegetation and soil moisture information into a crop simulation model to improve the accuracy of crop yield forecasts. Prototype software assimilates vegetation and soil moisture remote sensing dynamically into the DSSAT CSM maize model using ensemble Khalman filtering. Tests show improvements in county-scale yield simulations in contrasting farming systems in the USA, and highlight challenges for further research in heterogeneous smallholder environments. Because initial plans to adapt an existing suite of crop forecasting tools proved to be infeasible, a review of existing tools was commissioned to guide the development or adaptation of a CCAFS crop forecasting software platform. The Climate Impact Analysis toolkit has been identified as a promising starting point. ’‘Ž‹…›„”‹‡ˆȋDzAgro-Climate Tools for a New Climate-Smart AgriculturedzȌ™ƒ•†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†–‘ promote and inform investment by development donors in decision-support tools for managing climate-related agricultural risk. IITA and partners contributed to knowledge and methodology for managing climate impacts biological threats through: (a) modeling the impacts of climate on the distribution of cassava, banana and plantain pests; (b) studies of how weather influences flower thrips, and the phenology of six fruit fly species, to inform model development; and (c) a review of the effects of climate change on below-ground microorganisms. On-farm surveys in the moist and dry savannas of Benin and Cameroon, which show that most farmers perceive recent change in climate variability and have changed their planning in response, will inform future adaptation research. AfricaRice initiated a review of literature and inventory of available data on impacts of climate fluctuations on crop yields and on bird damage to rice in West Africa. The study and database will fill gaps in knowledge on the effects of meteorological conditions on bird damage, and disentangle the effects of bird damage from direct weather losses. Output 2.3.4 Enhanced capacity of national and regional climate information providers, NARES and communication intermediaries to design and deliver climate information products and services for agriculture and food security management Participatory action research at CCAFS sites in Senegal and Kenya provided opportunity to expose national meteorological service staff to new, downscaled, probabilistic seasonal climate forecast products, and a workshop-based strategy for training farmers and other local decision-makers to understand and act on the information. In Senegal, the national meteorological service led the project, and helped develop the downscaled forecast presented to Kenyan farmers. Two senior staff members (Deputy Director, and Senior Divisional Meteorologist) of the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology spent 1-1/2 weeks at the IRI to receive training in seasonal climate forecasting methodology and its applications, work with new maproom products for South Asia, and design a national climate risk atlas. Output 2.3.5 Identify and evaluate differential impact of climate information services on different social groups, particularly women and men, and inject findings into support to farmers No activities were planned or reported in 2011 under this output. 1 Theme 3 Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Annual Report 2011 February 2012 Synthesis of 2011 Activities by Output 3.1. Low-carbon agricultural development pathways 3.1.1 Analysis of agricultural development pathways and the trade‐offs among mitigation, poverty alleviation, food security and environmental health Modeling and economic analysis enabled a first iteration of understanding of the mitigation impacts of different agricultural development options. Two studies compared business-as-usual and simple scenarios for emissions. In one study for Vietnam, IFPRI used a spatially explicit model of land use and a partial equilibrium model (IMPACT) to show the effect of policy reforms, infrastructure investments and new technologies. Methods will be extended potentially to Bangladesh, Philippines, Colombia, and Gabon in 2012. In the second study, Brown et al. used the IPCC framework and land cover datasets based satellite imagery to estimate current and simulated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector for four East African and five West African countries. Most emissions (84%) were from activities related to livestock and fewest were from fertilizer use (0.7%). Testing mitigation options consistent with maintaining food security, the authors found that changes in soil management alone sequestered about 0.4 to 5 t CO2e ha-1yr-1, while soil and vegetation management (agroforests and conversion of marginal lands to native ecosystems) raised rates to 6 to 22 t CO2e ha-1yr-1. Avoided conversion of carbon-rich lands had the highest mitigation impacts, suggesting that intensification of land use should be a priority. Empirical studies complemented the modeling. In a historical analysis Gockowski et al. from IITA tested the possibilities for intensified cocoa production in Ghana, and concluded that a ten-year high tech fertilizer and pesticide intensification program for cocoa enabled higher production than would have been possible even if all forest in the study area had been cleared. The intensification program plus forest protection policies and enforcement enabled 402 km² of forest to be conserved and a stock of avoided carbon emissions of 17.6 Mt CO2-e. The study estimated that the productivity gain from one ton of fertilizer substituted for 2.84 ha of low input extensive cocoa technology. Building support at the national level for using these data and interest in conducting analysis started with a series of four national policy workshops (Mali, Ghana, Ethiopia and Kenya) where selected findings were presented to national decision makers. Next steps for this output will be to improve activity data and link the economic and biophysical modeling among these complementary efforts. More empirical studies of agricultural 2 intensification are needed to improve models and better understand relationships. Training will be conducted in 2012 to strengthen national modeling capacities.1 3.1.2 Enhanced tools, data and analytical capacity in regional and national policy and research organizations to analyze the implications of different development scenarios and mitigation strategies Tools were developed to support mitigation decision-making at the landscape and household levels. Two involved spatial modelling and provide foundational frameworks for planning. ICRAF developed a spatial land use simulation tool for planning for low-emissions development strategies (“LUWES”). The tool was developed for assisting local government to explore strategies that reduce emissions with minimum negative impact on economic development. Alternative land use scenarios can be compared. The tool was applied in two districts in Indonesia and well received. CIAT developed an online tool, based on digital map server technology, for evaluating biomass and carbon in the context of deforestation, land use, population and natural resources was developed for the Amazon region. This is supported by Terra-I, which detects land-cover changes resulting from human activities in near real-time, producing updates every 16 days. Terra-I runs for the whole of Latin America and is being expanded in 2012 to the entire tropics. To model decisions as the household level, ILRI and ICRAF modified the household data collection and analysis IMPACT tool (Integrated Modeling Platform for Mixed Animal-Crop Systems) to enable assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and related economic benefits and costs, and to include agroforestry options. A pilot test of data collection was conducted in Nyando, Kenya and will be expanded in 2012. This activity is linked to Outputs 3.2 and Theme 4. 3.1.3 Analysis of the gender and social differentiation implications of alternative agricultural pathways and findings built into communications and capacity building activities As preferences for alternative development pathways can differ, research supporting marginalized farmers to negotiate successfully can lead to outcomes that better meet their interests. ICRAF worked with multiple stakeholders in two districts in West Kalimantan, Indonesia to support performance-based negotiated agreements and land use planning. The study used measurements of carbon stocks and analysis of opportunity costs and abatement costs to support local stakeholder decisions about REDD and agroforestry interventions, aiming to reduce emissions by 26%. Social analysis was completed that described how oil palm expansion into forest areas was shaped by negotiations between the oil palm company and communities. Farmers with larger registered land size and official plot measurements benefited more in negotiations. Communities did not see the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) as a tool for strengthening their position vis-à-vis the company. A participatory assessment for the RSPO was limited to a few local public figures, all men. 1 Work by CIAT examined the costs of different mitigation options in the agricultural sector in Colombia, although not reported under Theme 3, also contributed to this output. 3 3.2 Institutional arrangements and incentives for mitigation 3.2.1 Evidence, analysis and trials to support institutional designs, policy and finance that will deliver benefits to poor farmers and women, and reduce GHG emissions The incentives and institutional arrangements to support a major shift towards mitigation practices among smallholder farmers are still nascent and little information exists in the formal literature. Hence, in 2011, CCAFS coordinated 38 chapters by experts in agricultural mitigation to produce a book on the state of agriculture and climate change mitigation. To strengthen the community of practice, a workshop was held jointly with FAO on incentives for mitigation, and four background papers produced. Gender implications were examined. A panel at the Durban COP reported on the main conclusion from this meeting that mitigation is more likely to be practiced where synergies with increased yields and farm production are possible than from C markets, and that the costs of making transitions to new practices need support for widespread adoption to occur. Participatory action research with carbon projects (see EcoAgriculture below) and research on payments for ecosystem services (see ICRAF below) drew similar conclusions. Due to the current momentum on REDD+ in negotiations, several publications on the implications of REDD+ for food security and agricultural mitigation were also produced, with research by Kissinger on REDD+ readiness plans showing that agricultural expansion and impacts on agriculture and food production required more attention in RED+ planning. Agrawal et al. conducted a review of institutional arrangements affecting governance of agricultural expansion in forest areas and commissioned five related papers, finding that legal enforcement and land tenure were primary explanatory factors. Results were presented in a seminar for policy makers and will be published in a special issue of Global Environmental Change in 2012. Because of the importance of creating incentives within current agricultural finance and corporate supply chain, Kissinger completed a scoping report on corporate social responsibility and agricultural finance programs supporting mitigation and suggestions for further research made. The Munden Project worked with data from CCAFS benchmark sites to investigate how to make investment in smallholder mitigation practices more profitable. On the ground, EcoAgriculture Partners facilitated participatory action research (PAR) with carbon market projects in Africa. A report comparing systems for project management, finance, benefit distribution and monitoring across six projects was completed and presented in the 2011 Earth Systems Governance meeting. This included a gender analysis. A second phase of PAR research was initiated with four projects for more in-depth study of institutional arrangements that communities to sustain the projects and workshop held. Theme 3 collaborated with Theme 1 in designing pilots for the social return on investments research, which contributed to the development of a proposal for national economic assessments of the costs and benefits of mitigation options for East Africa by ENR Associates. This work will begin in 2012. ICRAF, under the project, Rewards for, Use of and Shared Investment in Pro-poor Environmental Services (RUPES) Phase II, developed new frameworks for the paradigm for ‘Payments for Ecosystem Services,’ and reported on PES experiences in a book chapter and various workshops and training events in Asia and E Africa. A major conclusion was that per capita financial flows from PES remain small and co-investment and shared responsibility for stewardship, with a 4 focus on integrative livelihood assets (natural + human + social capital) rather than only financial assets can be expected to provide future flows of ecosystem services. Collective action, social mobilization and secure land access were major benefits from ecosystem service projects. CIMMYT scientists in the Cereal System Initiative South Asia (CSISA) project completed baseline farm household data collection on adoption of zero and minimum tillage in the IGP was completed (n = 2592 households) and is being analysed to provide adoption history of zero tillage and reduced tillage in the hubs of India, Nepal and Bangladesh. In 2012 CCAFS will continue to explore alternate incentives and institutional options, with an emphasis on support for innovation and adoption and incentives from within the agricultural sector. A new scientist position at IFPRI will be created to further investigate climate finance and the role of agribusiness. We will develop frameworks for consistent data collection and comparison. 3.2.2 Improved capacity to increase the uptake and improve the design of incentives mechanisms and institutional arrangements to deliver benefits to poor farmers and women CCAFS efforts to build a partnership for this output were not successful and a new partner has been identified for 2012. The focus will be on developing a framework for assessing women’s innovations that can be applied by partners and at CCAFS benchmark sites. Modeling gender and social differentiation of different pathways will require more data and detailed modeling than currently available. Results should be available by 2013 from the household IMPACT model survey by CCAFS. ICRAF held workshops based on the manual on Estimating the Opportunity Costs of REDD+ at regional, national and sub-national levels for researchers and other stakeholders: Regional - Africa: 50 participants, Asia : 25 participants, Latin America: 25 participants. National and subnational– Cameroon: 25 participants, Vietnam 20 participants, Indonesia (2 workshops): 53 participants; Peru: 50 participants expected. 3.3 On-farm mitigation practices and landscape implications 3.3.1 Analysis of mitigation biophysical and socioeconomic feasibility for different agricultural practices and regions, and impacts on emissions, livelihoods and food security The largest research effort in 2011, as expected given CG technical expertise, was towards understanding the effects of different farm management options on GHG emissions, as well as economic implications. Options were tested for grasses, agroforestry and fruit trees, soil management, and rice. Supporting more complete understanding of emissions, all GHG analyses were conducted for soils and agroforestry, and lifecycle assessments were completed for tropical perennial fruit systems, N2O in sweet sorghum and aquatic systems. Promising approaches include use of digestible and nitrogen inhibiting Brachiaria species, planting of timber agroforestry, and use of rice straw to reduce GHG emissions. CIAT, IITA and ICRAF began to link their efforts on perennial tree crops. In 2012 we will begin systematic synthesis of emissions factors and activity data as input to the IPCC fifth assessment AR5. Highlights from 2011 included: Grasses and grasslands 5 Evaluated 42 hybrids of Brachiaria humidicola, 5 had higher biological nitrogen inhibition. Assessment of Brachiaria and Canavalia in-vitro dry matter digestibility indicated these are potential candidates to reduce GHG emissions per unit livestock product. Rangeland in Central Asia was estimated to have lost 50 Tg soil organic carbon due to land use change and degradation (observed on 4.9 Mha), but recuperation of rangelands offset around 42 % of losses, resulting in little loss in response to land use. Agroforestry and fruit trees A review of agroforestry in Africa found high biophysical potentials, but low potential for C market revenues. In Western Kenya, ICRAF assessed tree-planting interventions for 362 households and found the nearly 160 additional timber (and fruit) trees provided the highest sequestration rates of about 10-15 kg C/tree. The value of carbon from all new trees, if valued at $4 per ton of CO2, was about $23 /yr/ household. For all 4,451 project households, the estimated net present value would be $751,946 for timber and fruit and $431,768 for fodder and soil fertility trees. In East Africa, IITA scientists classified seven E. African coffee production systems and assessed their adaptation and mitigation potential. Shaded, intercropped coffee-banana production systems most successfully combined adaptive capacity with mitigation. Potential benefits and strategies for equitable benefit sharing from a CARE carbon finance project were identified with different groups, including women. Data for ‘IMPACT’ household model was collected (nс40), after incorporation of an agroforestry component. CIAT scientists generated field and secondary data for 8 tropical fruit species to quantify the life cycle emissions and sequestration in fruit-based production systems. Ground quantification and verification of inputs used on fruit farms, and production strategies that contribute to energy footprint were started. In India, under the National Agricultural Innovation Project (NAIP), smallholders adopted emission reducing and carbon sequestering farming practices, including agroforestry in a grid of a thousand ha and started savings on energy use (lighting); fuelwood, irrigation pumps, and inputs in farming. In Indonesia, research was conducted on palm oil emissions to understand the effects of intensification and land conversion. All GHG analysis of soils under agroforestry in W. Kenya using photoacoustic measurements, started by ICRAF. Review paper on mitigation for smallholder coffee systems completed and policy brief produced. Conservation Agriculture, soil C and crop-soil management CIMMYT conducted research on conservation agriculture in E. Africa, India and Mexico. Plot- and household- level data were collected to characterize conservation agriculture practices and technologies (in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania; Haryana and W. Bengal India) and analyse economic, social (gender) and environmental benefits. A review was produced of the potential of CA to mitigate and adapt to climate change for two contrasting agro-ecological environments in Mexico and related economic benefits. Management effects tested included: o CH4, NO2 and CO2 monitored under contrasting tillage, residue and nutrient management practices in rice-wheat rotation in Haryana, India. o Economic and environmental effects of zero tillage were conducted for 340 households of West Bengal and Haryana. o Productivity indicators and total soil carbon were monitored in over 120 on-station and on-farm trials under different CA options in E Africa. o In IGP and Mexico, scientists tested management effects on GHG emissions, especially nitrous oxide 6 Other soil carbon and soil conservation efforts included: o Programme to Support Smallholder Conservation Agriculture Promotion in Western (Nigeria) and Central Africa (Cameroon, Congo D.R) completed by ICRAF, including farmer innovation networks, locally adapted conservation agriculture and upscaling of CA. o Sites established and protocols implemented for agricultural mitigation options for high value market crops study by IFPRI.For the test sites, the soil organic carbon initial conditions were recorded, the baseline for soil organic carbon for the period 2010-2050 was determined, and a portfolio of mitigation practices identified. A cost-benefit analysis that simulates the adoption of these practices was carried out for Ghana, Morocco, and it’s almost completed for Mozambique. The implicit cost of a mitigated ton of carbon was also determined. o Research published by ICRISAT on C sequestration in Indian soils of tropical and subtropical environments: Assessment and Potential. o Evaluation of nitrous oxide emissions from a long-term Conservation Agriculture experiment at Patancheru was in progress, and on-going C-seq. & NO2 measurements were made in cropping systems and in long-term on-station experiments by ICRISAT, including life-cycle analysis of nitrogen losses in sweet sorghum at different N-rates. Livestock ILRI developed emission factors for livestock that are in use by the IPCC (see also Output 3.3.2) Biofuels Feasibility of smallholder production of biofuels was conducted by ICRAF. Evaluation of feedstocks and their environmental suitability, production and yields analyzed. Sweet sorghum and castor were the most environmentally suitable bioethanol and biodiesel feedstock respectively. Sweet sorghum had the highest gross margin, followed by sugarcane and cassava for bioethanol feedstocks. For biodiesel feedstocks, sunflower has the highest gross margin per hectare. Experimental design and pot tests for effect of biochar on gas fluxes completed. Studies on biofuel value chain potential* and Jatropha* in Mali for oil production are underway. Rice IRRI produced region-specific mitigation potentials in rice production associated with improved irrigation and fertilizer management and tested emissions in farmers' fields for different management options in different rice growing regions. Specific research completed in 2011 included: o Testing net G,G emission reduction from water saving strategies in farmers’ fields in the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam to examine whether experiment stations results from the last decade were practicable and could be considered options for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). In the Philippines, a comprehensive database of emission, soil and agronomic data on alternate wetting and drying was compiled, and collection will be continued in 2012 and 2013. In Indonesia, ongoing measurements addressed the impact of direct seeding. In Vietnam field measurements started in 2011. o Regional assessment of LUCCi (Land Use and Climate Change Interaction) to develop strategies for sustainable land use in Vietnam considering the regional socioͲeconomic development, national planning elements as well as regional climate change projections. The project focuses on analyzing the impacts of different land use systems and crop management on GHG emissions as well as climate change impacts (Links to Objective 3.1) o Two case studies on alternative uses to burning of rice straw in Vietnam and Philippines. Farmers were asked to describe their perception about alternative uses of rice straw such as rapid composting and mushroom culture and to name factors that may affect their adoption of these alternative uses. The study also recorded GHGs of alternative uses of rice straw and identified policy options to enhance adoption. 7 o A quantitive analysis of published methodologies for chamber measurements and an environmental impact assessment of mitigation technologies. In Vietnam, IFPRI assessed alternative paddy mitigation practices for 2 seasons of paddy rice in the Red River Delta in Vietnam. One season included measurements for CH4 and N2O. Aquatic systems World Fish completed Guideline on Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and aquaculture products completed and working paper on Lifecycle Inventory and Lifecycle Assessment methodology relevant to Bangladesh integrated aquatic-agricultural systems completed Other Assessments of emissions from the agricultural sector and lifecycle analysis for major food products were conducted for Bangladesh. 3.3.2 Methods developed and validated for GHG monitoring and accounting at farm and landscape level to contribute to compliance and voluntary market standards Although methods exist for GHG quantification, studies are usually based on sector specific interventions and activities. This output seeks to develop methods that enable a systems analysis of net emissions at the whole farm and landscape level. To that end, two review papers were commissioned and a workshop (40 participants) with FAO was held to assess the state of the art of such approaches and create a road map for future work. A research group was formed and proposal written to develop and apply a common protocol for the CG and partners to conduct a major data GHG data collection effort for smallholder systems in 2012. The Copenhagen University-initiated Climate Food and Farming Network (CLIFF see http://www.cliff.life.ku.dk/), which links researchers and doctoral students working on climate change mitigation and adaptation in small-scale farming and food systems, gave eight grants and held a workshop in 2011. This network should support additional data collection and protocol development. These efforts will build on existing tools and initiatives also produced in 2011: A protocol for Measuring and Monitoring Soil Carbon Stocks in Agricultural Landscapes that was produced by ICRAF and made available under the Carbon Benefits Project toolkit. A proposal to extend this work was produced with the aim to quantify the uncertainties in soil carbon estimates and improve guidelines for planning soil carbon measurements. ILRI researchers developed an intermediate scale rangeland model for climate change and carbon sequestration studies. Carbon sequestration measurement protocols were established and field data collection has begun in Mali, Burkina Faso and in southern Ethiopia. Datasets for validating the models for different regions are being collated. Papers, policy briefs and presentations in SBSTA and COP meetings by the Alternatives to Slash-and-burn and ICRAF’s Architecture of REALU: Reducing Emissions for All Land Use (Phase II) projects on landscape approaches to mitigation. Links to 3.1 activities related to Tools for REDD+ 8 Case Study 1: Investment mechanisms for low climate-impact agriculture Case type: Non-research partnerships Brief description of the activity One of the major constraints to intensifying agriculture sustainably while also reducing net greenhouse gas emissions is capital investment. Farmers usually require additional capital to transition to new practices such as soil conservation or agroforestry. While international capital exists, the high risk of variability in agricultural production in developing countries, especially under climate change, has discouraged investment. The scale of smallholder operations has also made it difficult for them to compete with larger agricultural operations for funds. hannel for funds. The purpose of the partnership with the Munden Project is to investigate and test investment mechanisms for delivering capital to sustainable agriculture that helps sequester carbon and reduces potential future impacts on the climate. The Munden Project is using data from the CCAFS benchmark sites to identify how to enable smallholder farmers to compete for finance with larger agricultural operations by achieving scale and overcoming risks through the development of international portfolios. The development of the mechanisms has involved consultations with investor experts, including bilateral donors, development banks, private sector groups with corporate social responsibility approaches, as well as development expert judgment, including CCAFS researchers, partners at CCAFS benchmark sites. Result of activity The project is working with bilateral donors to establish practicable mechanisms that can be used by the Munden Project and others to guide climate or agricultural investments. In 2012, The Munden Project will establish and test a real investment mechanism. The partner is creating a new non-profit arm to manage this work. Partners involved and their role The Munden Project, a US-based consulting firm, leads the investigation. Bilateral donors, development banks, private sector groups with corporate social responsibility approaches have supported development of the mechanism and will collaborate in its implementation. Development experts, including CCAFS researchers, partners at CCAFS benchmark sites have informed the development of the mechanism. Research on which the activity is based CCAFS benchmark sites Web address for further information http://www.mundenproject.com (but no project results posted yet) 9 Case Study 2: Governing Mitigation Trade-offs in Agriculture-Forestry Landscapes Case Type: Communications Brief description of the activity Forest conversion due to agricultural expansion is a major contributor to greenhouse gases. While intensifying agricultural production can reduce these pressures, institutional measures can help provide incentives for forest protection as well as enforcement of protected areas and property rights. Research by the University of Michigan’s International Forestry Resources and Institutions Program and five partners examined the institutional dynamics and mechanisms for forest conservation due to agriculture. They sought to identify how institutional arrangements and agricultural technologies can enable improvements in both livelihoods and net emissions reductions. Due to the relevance of these findings to the development of REDD+ policies, the authors of each of the papers presented their findings at a policy meeting hosted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington DC in August 2011. About 15 policy, advocacy and research organizations were represented, including the World Bank, Oxfam and the World Resources Institute. The papers were then made available the following week as five CCAFS working papers. A summary was shared in print and web form the next month in a Rights and Resources Initiative meeting on agriculture and REDD+ in the Hague that was attended by a mostly European policy makers and advocates, including the the Dutch Foreign Ministry, BothEnds, representatives of several African national governments and the World Wide Fund for Nature. Result of activity The immediate sharing of research results in two key policy forums created rapid awareness of the role of legal enforcement and tenure arrangements on reducing forest conversion due to agriculture, without having to wait for the long process of publishing a scientific journal issue. Revised versions will be published in a special issue of Global Environmental Change. Working papers (titles of article will be the same): 10 Robinson BE, Holland MB, Naughton-Treves L. 2011. Does secure land tenure save forests? A review of the relationship between land tenure and tropical deforestation. CCAFS Working Paper no. 7. Börner J, Wunder S, Wertz-Kanounnikoff S, Hyman G, Nascimento N. 2011. REDD sticks and carrots in the Brazilian Amazon: Assessing costs and livelihood implications. CCAFS Working Paper no. 8. Fox J, Castella J-C, Ziegler AD. 2011. Swidden, Rubber and Carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia? CCAFS Working Paper no. 9. Barbier EB and Tesfaw AT. 2011. Overcoming tenurial constraints to carbon forestry projects in Africa. CCAFS Working Paper no. 10. Cohn A, owman M, ilberman D, O’Neill K. 2011. The siability of Cattle Ranching Intensification in Brazil as a Strategy to Spare Land and Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions. CCAFS Working Paper no. 11. Partners involved and their role Arun Agrawal and Lauren Persha at the University of Michigan International Forestry Resources and Institutions (IFRI) Program commissioned the papers and coordinated the event. Authors listed above. IFPRI as host of the policy forum Research on which the activity is based U Michigan research project on governing mitigation trade-offs Web address for further information http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/working-papers 11 Case Study 3: Building communities of practice: CCAFS-FAO Smallholder Mitigation Workshop Series Case Type: Capacity strengthening/Communications Brief description of the activity Climate change mitigation in agriculture is a rapidly emerging field that requires collaboration among different entities that have not traditionally worked together, for example investors and extension agents, national negotiators of the UNFCCC and advocates of smallholder farmers. The knowledge needed to develop frameworks for mitigation policies and practice thus has been fragmented and the diverse networks and organizational cultures involved have made it difficult to work towards common goals. CCAFS and FAO’s Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture (MICCA) Programme are collaborating in a workshop series intended to overcome these constraints. The workshops are designed to review the state of knowledge, create shared goals for action, and build communities of practice for innovation. Each workshop involves the preparation of at least one major background review paper. Two workshops were held in 2011 Mitigation Options and Incentive Mechanisms, July 2011 Whole Farm and Landscape Accounting, October 2011 The workshop on incentives brought together economists and finance experts, carbon market specialists, gender experts, practioners in technology adoption, sustainable agriculture certifiers and representatives from agri-business, among others. Participants explored mechanisms that jointly support smallholder livelihoods and food security by reviewing (1) the costs and benefits of mitigation options at the farm level and barriers for their adoption, (2) incentive mechanisms and associated institutional arrangements, (3) mechanisms specifically to reach women and the poor. Participants also developed principles for pro-poor incentives for smallholders. The workshop on systems approaches to greenhouse accounting brought together researchers, practitioners and policy makers with expertise in greenhouse gas quantification to (1) review the state of methods for quantification of net emissions at the whole farm and landscape levels, 12 (2) explore options for creating protocols and guidelines for methods appropriate to smallholders based on current knowledge, and (3) identify gaps and issues where further work is required. Additional workshops in 2012 will be on quantification issues for smallholder agriculture and decision making to support national mitigation priorities. Result of activity A partnership for research on a GHG protocol for smallholders was initiated and concept note developed among five CG centers, the Global Research Alliance (Canada, Measurement and Monitoring working group) and selected universities. Input from participants for review papers on whole farm and landscape approaches. A Google Groups listserv for participants for use as a resource to contact colleagues, pose questions to the group, and share materials. Partners involved and their role Workshop participants Research on which the activity is based Havemann T and Muccione V. 2011. Mechanisms for aricultural climate change mitigation incentives for smallholders. CCAFS Report no. 6. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Streck C and Burns D. Forthcoming. Harnessing mitigation finance for the benefit of smallholder farmers. Forthcoming CCAFS Report. McCarthy N, Lipper L, Branca G. 2011. Climate-Smart Agriculture: Smallholder Adoption and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/docrep/015/i2575e/i2575e00.pdf Branca G, McCarthy N, Lipper L, Jolejole MC. 2011. Climate-Smart Agriculture: A Synthesis of Empirical Evidence of Food Security and Mitigation Benefits from Improved Cropland Management. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/docrep/015/i2574e/i2574e00.pdf Milne E. Forthcoming. Methods for the quantification of net emissions at the landscape level for developing countries in smallholder contexts. Forthcoming CCAFS Report. Seebauer M. Forthcoming. Methods for the quantification of net emissions at the farm level for developing countries in smallholder contexts. Forthcoming CCAFS Report. Web address for further information: http://www.fao.org/climatechange/micca/72532/en/ (includes links to presentations and outputs) 13 2011 Theme 3 Center Publications Highlighted publications indicate potential mitigation focus Bioversity Blogs 1. Cherfas, J. 4 December 2011. Who knows what about climate change? Available online: http://www.agricultureday.org/blog/2011/12/who-knows-what-about-climate-change/ 2. Cherfas, J. 9 December 2011. Could climate-smart agriculture help save our forests? Available online: http://blog.cifor.org/6185/could-climate-smart-agriculture-save-our-forests/ 3. Cherfas, J. 18 July 2011. Climate Change at the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. Available online: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/climate-change-commission-genetic-resources-food-and- agriculture Books 1. Halewood, M., Louafi, S and Lopez-Noriega, I. Editors. Crop Genetic Resources as a Global Commons: Challenges in International Law and Governance. London: Earthscan. [peer reviewed]. Manuscript sent in 2011 to Earthscan, for publication in 2012. Available for order on Earthscan website at: http://www.earthscan.co.uk/?tabid=102815 2. Rudebjer P, van Schagen B, Chakeredza S, Njoroge K, Kamau H, Baena M. 2011. Teaching agrobiodiversity: a curriculum guide for higher education. [peer reviewed] Available on CD-ROM. Book Chapters 1. Padulosi S., V. Heywood, D. Hunter and A. Jarvis (2011). Underutilized Species and Climate Change: Current Status and Outlook. In Shyam S. Yadav, Robert J. Redden and Jerry L. Hatfield Eds. Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, First Edition. Hermann Lotze-Campen and Anthony E. Hall. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2011 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.507- 521 pp. [peer reviewed] Available on CD-ROM. 2. Ramirez, J., Jarvis, A., Van den Bergh, I., Staver, C. and Turner, D. (2010). Chapter 20: Changing climates: Effects on growing conditions for banana and plantain (Musa spp.) and possible responses. In Shyam S. Yadav, Robert J. Redden and Jerry L. Hatfield Eds. Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, First Edition. Hermann Lotze-Campen and Anthony E. Hall. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2011 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 426-438 pp. [peer reviewed] Available upon request. 3. Snook, L., Dulloo, M.E., Jarvis, A., Scheldeman, X., Kneller, M. (2011). Crop Germplasm Diversity - the Role of Gene Bank Collections in Facilitating Adaptation to Climate Change. In Shyam S. Yadav, Robert J. Redden and Jerry L. Hatfield Eds. Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, First Edition. Hermann Lotze-Campen and Anthony E. Hall. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Published 2011 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.495-506 pp. [peer reviewed] Available on CD-ROM. 14 Discussions 1. Discussion among experts on participatory monitoring; Solutions Exchange e-mails, October – November 2011. Available on CD-ROM. 2. Fadda, C. 1 September 2011. Seeds for needs approach was proposed as one option to mitigate drought-induced food crisis. 3. Fadda, C. 5-9 October 2011. Seeds for needs approach as an example on how science can help policy to adapt to climate change. Pre-Meeting for the IPBES second multi- stakeholder meeting. Nairobi, Kenya. Events 1. Agrobiodiversity to address climate change, agriculture and food security. 19 July 2011. Thirteenth Regular Session of the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Available on CD- ROM and online: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/events/19/jul/2011/agrobiodiversity-address-climate- change-agriculture-and-food-security 2. The CGIAR Centres’ experiences implementing their Article 15 agreements with the Governing Body of the International Treaty. 14 March, 2011. Fourth Session of the Governing Body of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. Bali, Indonesia. Available online: http://www.sgrp.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/CGIAR_Experiences_SideEvent140311_fly er.pdf Journal Articles 1. Bellon, M.R., D. Hodson and J. Hellin. 2011. Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA. 108 (33): 13432-13437. [peer reviewed] Available on CD-ROM and online: www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1103373108 2. Bonham, C.A. and Dulloo, E. and Mathur, P. and Brahmi, P. and Tyagi, V. and Tyagi, R.K. and Upadhyaya, H.D. (2010) Plant genetic resources and germplasm use in India. Asian Biotechnology and Development Review, 12 (3). pp. 17-34. [peer reviewed] Available on CD-ROM. 3. Ford-Lloyd BV, Schmidt M, Armstrong SJ, Barazani O, Engels J, Hadas R, Hammer K, Kell SP, Kang D, Khoshbakht K, Li Y, Long C, Lu B-R, Ma K, Nguyen VT, Qiu L, Ge S, Wei W, Zhang Z, Maxted N. Crop Wild RelativesͶUndervalued, Underutilized and under Threat? BioScience 2011, 61(7): 559-565. [peer reviewed] Available online: http://www.jstor.org/pss/10.1525/bio.2011.61.7.10 4. Halewood, M. 2011. Options for governing the microbial commons. In P. F. Uhlir (Ed.), Designing the Microbial Research Commons: Proceedings of an International Workshop. (pp. 191-200). Washington: National Academy of Science. [peer reviewed] Available online: http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=13245&page=191 15 5. Pascual, U., Narloch, U., Nordhagen, S. and Drucker, A. G. 2011. The economics of agrobiodiversity conservation for food security under climate change. Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales. Vol. 11 (1): pp. 191-220. [peer reviewed] Available online: http://aeea.webs.upv.es/aeea/ficheros/Revistas/EARN_11_1/11_1_09_Pascual.pdf 6. Ramírez, R., A. Jarvis, I. Van den Bergh, C. Staver and D. Turner. Climate change in the subtropics: The impacts of projected averages and variability on banana productivity. ProMusa symposium – “Cultivation of bananas and other tropical fruits under sub- tropical conditions – Special problems and innovative solutions” Acta ,orticulturae. In press. Maps 1. Arnaud, E. and team. 2011. Maps of georeferenced accessions. Available on CD-ROM. 2. Platform for Agrobiodiversity Research. Mapping of agrobiodiversity as an adaptation strategy on the AMKN website. Available online: http://amkn.org/#/bm=1/ctr=4628280.715140242;968867.446404513/lvl=1/pts=biodiv _cases Meeting Proceedings 1. On farm conservation of neglected and underutilized species: status, trends and novel approaches to cope with climate change; Frankfurt, Germany, 14 – 16 June 2011. In press. 2. Proceedings of three national workshops on fine tuning of participatory approaches to national contexts; Kathmandu, Nepal, 1-2 September, Chennai, India, 5-6 September, La Paz, Bolivia, 21-22 September. In press. 3. Staver, C. 14 October 2011. Proceedings of Workshop ProMusa 2011 Pests and diseases in bananas – projecting the effects of climate change; Salvador de Bahia, Brazil. Available on CD-ROM. Presentations 1. Bonham, C. 9 May 2011. Climate Change and Policy: Access and use of agrobiodiversity in India. CRP7 Seminar. Bioversity International, Rome, Italy. Available online: http://player.vimeo.com/video/23631561 2. Cadima, X. Foundation for the Promotion and Investigation of Andean Products (PROINPA), Bolivia, presented on the role of agrobiodiversity in coping with climate change and the experience of rural communities and indigenous peoples. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/nr/documents/CGRFA/Local_Perspective_Cad ima.pdf 3. Dulloo, M.E., Van Zonnevald, M., Thormann, I., Drucker, A., Marandu, W., and Gaisberger, H. 13 May 2011. Seeds for Needs: Adaptation to climate change; Progress to date in Ethiopia. CRP7 Seminar. Bioversity International, Rome, Italy. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/8336241 16 4. Lopez Noriega, I., 13 May 2011. CRP7 and Policy Research and Support Unit. . CRP7 Seminar. Bioversity International, Rome, Italy. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/8335107 5. Rudebjer, P. 17 June 2011. Capacity enhancement in CCAFS - ioversity’s contribution. CRP7 Seminar. Bioversity International, Rome, Italy. Available online: http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/8376437 6. Staver, C. y J. Ramirez. 22 – 24 June 2011. Bananeros frente al cambio climatico: Adaptacion al incertidumbre, variabilidad y eventos extremos. International Congress - Cambio Climático en el Sector Platanero y Bananero, Piura, Perú. Available upon request. 7. Perez Vicente, L. 22 – 24 June 2011. Expectativas y desafíos para el manejo sostenible de plagas en musáceas frente a la variabilidad climática. 1st International Latin American Congress on Banana and Plantain - Cambio Climático en el Sector Platanero y Bananero. Available upon request. 8. Jarvis, A. and J. Ramirez. 22 – 24 June 2011. Impactos e implicaciones del cambio climático para la banana en Latinoamérica y el Caribe. 1st International Latin American Congress on Banana and Plantain - Cambio Climático en el Sector Platanero y Bananero. Available upon request. Public Awareness Materials 1. Farmers and genebanks: creating alliances to help rural communities cope with climate change. Platform for Agrobiodiversity Research. Rome, Italy. 2011. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://agrobiodiversityplatform.org/climatechange/files/2011/08/Prova6-corretto6- LOWRES.pdf Statements 1. Platform for Agrobiodiversity Research – Statement made at the 13th Regular Session of the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (CGRFA): Agenda Item 2.2 Climate change and genetic resources for food and agriculture. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://agrobiodiversityplatform.org/climatechange/files/2011/07/PAR_Statement.pdf Surveys 1. Standardized survey questionnaire developed jointly with partners to include also role of gender in conserving genetic diversity and indigenous knowledge and their value within climate change copying strategies. Available on CD-ROM. Technical Reports & Background Papers 1. Experiences of international institutions with the implementation of the agreements with the Governing Body under Article 15 of the Treaty, with particular reference to the use of the Standard Material Transfer Agreement for Annex I and non-Annex I crops. Fourth Session of the Governing Body of the International Treaty, Bali, Indonesia, 14-18 17 March 2011. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://www.planttreaty.org/sites/default/files/gb4i05e.pdf 2. Report of the Thirteenth Regular Session of the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. July 2011. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://www.fao.org/nr/cgrfa/cgrfa-meetings/cgrfa-comm/thirteenth-reg/en/ 3. Report from the international agriculture research centres of the consultative group on international agricultural research to the intergovernmental technical working group on plant genetic resources for food and agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. April 2011. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://typo3.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/agphome/documents/PGR/ITWG/ITWG5/ITW G5_INF8ReportfromCGIARFINALUpton_01.pdf 4. Beed, F, Halewood M. et al. May 2011 Climate Change and Micro-Organism Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture: State of Knowledge, Risks and Opportunities. Background Study Paper No. 57. CGRFA, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Available on CD-ROM and online: http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/022/mb392e.pdf 5. Fujisaka, S., Williams, D and Halewood, M. (Eds). April 2011. Background Paper No. 48: The impact of climate change on countries’ interdependence on genetic resources for food and agriculture. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. April 2011. Available on CD-ROM and online: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/meeting/017/ak532e.pdf 6. Ling, Li. 2011. Climatic stresses at pea collection sites in China; final technical report for the Vavilov Frankel Fellowship. Liaoning Academy of Agricultural Science, Liaoning, China. Full text available upon request. Videos 1. Cherfas, J. 18 July 2011. Climate Change at the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. Jeremy Cherfas. Available online: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/climate-change-commission-genetic-resources-food-and- agriculture 2. Seeds for needs project update – helping women farmers in Ethiopia adapt to climate change. August 2011. Available online: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ye8yUUNXnxE&list=UUGIRaI1_FpiN271fRnaFimA&i ndex=8&feature=plcp 3. Seeds for Needs, Papua New Guinea Mid-term Report. November 2011. Available online: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsyaDyYlwpo&feature=player_embedded CIAT PEER-REVIEWED PAPERS Butare, L., I. M. Rao, P. Lepoivre, J. Polania, C. Cajiao, J. B. Cuasquer and S. Beebe. 2011. New sources of resistance in Phaseolus species to individual and combined aluminium toxicity and progressive soil drying stresses. Euphytica 181: 385-404. 18 Blair, M. W., C. H. Galeano, E. Tovar, M. C. Muñoz Torres, A. Velasco, S. Beebe and I. M. Rao. 2011. Development of a Mesoamerican intra-genepool genetic map for QTL detection in a drought tolerant x susceptible common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) cross. Molecular Breeding (published online). Graefe, S; Dufour, D; Giraldo, A; Muñoz, L.A; Mora, P; Solís, H; Garcés, H; Gonzalez, A. 2011. Energy and carbon footprints of ethanol production using banana and cooking banana discard: A case study from Costa Rica and Ecuador. Biomass and Bioenergy. DOI: 10.1016/j.biombioe.2011.02.051 [Artículo aprobado] Herrera-Campo, B.; Hyman, G.; Bellotti, A.; 2011. Threats to cassava production: known and potential geographic distribution of four key biotic constraints, Food Sec.DOI 10.1007/s12571- 011-0141-4 Jarvis, A., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Herrera Campo, B.V., Navarro-Racines, C.E. 2011. Is Cassava the Answer to African Climate Change Adaptation. Tropical Plant Biology, accepted for publication. Jarvis, A.; Lau, C.; Cook, S.E.; Wollenberg, E.; Hansen, J.; Bonilla, O.; Challinor, A. 2011. An integrated adaptation and mitigation framework for developing agricultural reserch: synergies and trade-offs. Experimental Agriculture 47:185-203. [Artículo aprobado] Maxted, N.; Kell, S.; Toledo, Á.; Dullo, E.; Heywood, V.; Hodgkin, T.; Hunter, D.; Guarino, L.; Jarvis, A. & Ford-Lloyd, B. 2011. A global approach to crop wild relative conservation: securing the gene pool for food and agriculture. KEW BULLETIN VOL. 65: 561–576 . McClean, P, J. Burridge, S. Beebe, I. Rao and T. Porch. 2011. Crop improvement in the era of climate change: An integrated multi-disciplinary approach for common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Functional Plant Biology 38: 927-933 Mulligan, M.; Fisher, M.; Sharma, B.; Xu, Z.X.; Ringler, C.; Mahé, G.; Jarvis, A.; Ramírez, J.; Clanet, J.C.; Ogilvie, A.; Ahmad, M. 2011. The nature and impact of climate change in the challenge program on water and food (CPWF) basins. Water International 36 (1): 96-124. Ramirez-Villegas, J., Jarvis, A., Laderach, P. In press. Empirical approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture: The EcoCrop model and a case study with grain sorghum. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.005 Ramirez-Villegas, J., Salazar-Villegas, M, Jarvis, A. and Navarro-Racines, C.E. 2011. A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: Perspectives towards 2050. Climatic Change, accepted for publication. Vermeulen S.J.; Aggarwal,P.K.; Ainslie,A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor A.J.; Hansen, J.W.; Ingram, J.S.; Jarvis, A.; Kristjanson, P.; Lau, C.; Nelson, G.C.; Thornton P.K.; Wollenber, E. 2011. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environmental Science and policy. BOOK CHAPTERS 19 Leal Filho W.; Laderach, P.; Lundy, M.; Jarvis, A.; Ramírez J. 2011. The Economic, Social and Political Elements of Climate Change.Change: 703–723-723. Available:http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/978-3-642-14776-0. Beebe,S.; Ramirez,J.; Jarvis, A.; Idupulapati , M. R.; Mosquera, G.; Bueno, J.M.; and Blair, M. 2011. Genetic Improvement of Common Beans and the Challenges of Climate Change Chapter 16. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0-8138-2016-3, 632 p. Ceballos,H.; Ramirez,J.; Bellotti,A.; Jarvis, A.; and Alvarez, E.; 2011. Adaptation of Cassava to Changing Climates. Chapter 19. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0-8138-2016- 3, 632 p. Jarvis, A.; Ramirez, J.; Bonilla-Findji, O, and Zapata, E. 2011. Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Production in Latin America, Chapter 3.1. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0- 8138-2016-3, 632 p. Padulosi, S.; Heywood,V.; Hunter, D.; and Jarvis, A. 2011. Underutilized Species and Climate Change: Current Status and Outlook, Chapter 26. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0-8138-2016-3, 632 p. Ramirez,J.; Jarvis, A.; Van den Bergh, I.; Staver, Ch.; and Turner, D. 2011. Changing Climates: Effects on Crowing Conditions for Banana and Plantain(Musa spp.) and Possible Responses. Chapter 20. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0-8138-2016-3, 632 p. Snook , L.K.; Dulloo M.E.; Jarvis, A.; Scheldeman, X. and Kneller, M. 2011. Crop Germplasm Diversity: The Role of Gene Bank Collections in Facilitating Adaptation to Climate Change, Chapter 25. In Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0-8138-2016-3, 632 p. Schafleitner, R.; Ramirez, J.; Jarvis, A.; Evers, D.; Gutierrez, R.; and Scurrah, M. 2011. Adaptation of the potato crop to climate change. Chapter 11 in Crop Adaptation to Climate Change, ISBN: 978-0-8138-2016-3, 632 p. CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS Subbarao, G. V., T. Ishikawa, K. Nakahara, M. Ishitani and I. M. Rao. 2011. BNI (Biological Nitrification Inhibition) function in tropical Brachiaria pastures. Plenary paper presented at the III International Symposium on Forage Breeding held at Bonito, MS, Brazil, 7 to 11 November 2011. Published as CDROM (pp. 401-414). Rao, I., J. Miles, P. Wenzl, A. Louw-Gaume, J. A. Cardoso, J. Ricaurte, J. Polania, J. Rincon, V. Hoyos, E. Frossard, T. Wagatsuma and W. Horst. 2011. Mechanisms of adaptation of brachiariagrasses to abiotic stress factors in the tropics. Plenary paper presented at the III International Symposium on Forage Breeding held at Bonito, MS, Brazil, 7 to 11 November 2011. Published as CDROM (pp. 361- 383). Van den Bergh, I., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Staver, C., Turner, D., Jarvis, A., and Brown, D. 2011. Climate Change in the Subtropics: Impacts of Projected Averages and Variability on Banana Productivity. Acta Horticulturae, in press. 20 CIMMYT 1. Anneke, P. , Mukubi, J., Pellny, T., Verrier, P., Beyenne, G., Lopes, M., Emami, K., Treumann, A., Lelarge-Trouverie, C., Noctor, G., Kunert, K., Christine Foyer. 2011. The responses of maize leaves to elevated CO2: acclimation and signalling. Plant Cell and Environment 34, 314-331 2. Dendooven, L., Gutiérrez-Oliva, V.F., Patiño-Zúñiga, L., Ramirez-Villanueva, D.A., Verhulst N., Luna-Guido M., Marsch, R., Montes-Molina, J., Gutierrez-Miceli, F.A., Vásquez-Murrieta, S., Govaerts, B., 2012. The net global warming potential of conservation agriculture compared to the traditional cultivation of maize in the central highlands of Mexico. Soil Biology and Biochemistry, Submitted. 3. Dendooven, L., Patiño-Zúñiga, L., Verhulst N., Luna-Guido M., Marsch, R., Govaerts, B., 2012. Global warming potential of agricultural systems with contrasting tillage and residue management in the central highlands of Mexico. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, Accepted. 4. Dendooven, L., Patiño-Zúñiga, L., Verhulst, N., Boden, K., García-Gaytán, A., Luna-Guido, M., Govaerts, B., 2012. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from No-tilled Permanent Raised and Conventional Tilled Beds in the Central Highlands of Mexico. In: Kang, M.S. (Ed.), Preparing Agriculture for Climate Change, In press. 5. Erenstein, O., Kassie, G.T., Mwangi, W., 2011. Comparative analysis of maize based livelihoods in drought prone regions of eastern Africa: Adaptation lessons for climate change. Paper presented at the conference: Increasing Agricultural Productivity & Enhancing Food Security in Africa: New Challenges and Opportunities, 1-3 November 2011, Africa Hall, UNECA , Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 6. Hailemariam, T., M. Kassie and B. Shiferaw (2011) On the Joint Estimation of Multiple Adoption Decisions: The Case of Sustainable Agricultural Technologies and Practices in Ethiopia. Paper submitted to IAAE’s 28th Triennial Conference (August 18-24, 2012), Brazil. 7. Jat ML, Jat R K, Gupta Raj and Gopal Ravi. 2011. Conservation agriculture in cereal systems of South Asia: effect on crop productivity and carbon-based sustainability index. In: Resilient food systems for a changing world, Proceedings of the 5th World Congress of Conservation Agriculture Incorporating 3rd Farming Systems Design Conference, Brisbane Australia, 26-29 September, 2011, p 26-27. 8. Jat RK, Gopal R, Jat ML, Gupta, R, Singh, Y and Kumar, M. 2011. Productivity and carbon based sustainability index of maize under contrasting tillage practices for rice-maize production systems of eastern Indo-Gangatic plains. In: Addressing Climate Change effects and Meeting Maize Demand for Asia, Book of extended summaries for the eleventh Asian Maize Conference (Eds Zaidi et al), Nanning, China, November 7-11, 2011, p 386-387, CIMMYT, Mexico, D.F. 9. Jat SL, Parihar CM, Singh AK, Jat ML and Jat RK. 2011. Carbon sustainability and productivity of maize based cropping system under conservation agriculture practices in Indo- Gangetic plains. In: Resilient food systems for a changing world, Proceedings of the 5th World Congress of Conservation Agriculture Incorporating 3rd Farming Systems Design Conference, Brisbane Australia, 26-29 September, 2011, p 110-111. 21 10. JE Cairns, J Hellin, K Sonder, BM Prasanna, JL Araus (2012). Maize production in a warming climate: Impacts, challenges and adaptation through the development and deployment of climate-adapted germplasm. Submitted to Global Change Biology. 11. JE Cairns, K Sonder, PH Zaidi, N Verhulst, G Mahuku, R Babu, SK Nair, B Das, B Govaerts, MT Vinayan, Z Rashid, JJ Noor, P Devi, F San Vicente, BM Prasanna (2012). Maize production in a changing climate: impacts, adaptation and mitigation strategies. In D Sparks (Ed). Advances in Agronomy 114: 1-58. 12. Kassie, M., S. Wagura and B. Shiferaw (2011) Gender and Food Security: Empirical Evidence from Kenya. Paper submitted to IAAE’s 28th Triennial Conference (August 18- 24, 2012), Brazil. 13. Lobell, D., A. Sibley, and I. Ortiz-Monasterio. 2012. Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/nclimate1356. 14. Lopes M and Foyer C. (2011) The impact of high CO2 on plant abiotic stress tolerance. In: Crop Stress Management and Global Climate Change, CABI, JL Araus and G Slafer (Eds.) 15. Muricho, G., M. Kassie, M. Odendos, and J. Ouma. 2011. Characterization of maize- legume farming systems in Kenya: analysis of technology choice, resource use, gender, risk management, food security and poverty profiles. CIMMYT Socioeconomics Program Working Paper (draft) 16. Mittal, Surabhi. 2011. Modern ICT for agricultural development and risk management in smallholder agriculture in India. CIMMYT Socioeconomics Program Working Paper (draft) 17. Oliver, K., M. Kassie, F. Mmbando.2011. Characterization of maize-legume farming systems in Tanzania: analysis of technology choice, resource use, gender, risk management, food security and poverty profiles. CIMMYT Socioeconomics Program Working Paper (draft) 18. Saharawat YS, Ladha JK, Pathak H, Gathala M, Chaudhary N and Jat ML. 2011. Simulation of resource-conserving technologies on productivity, income and greenhouse gas emission in rice-wheat system. Journal of Soil Science and Environmental Management, Vol. 3 (12), December, 2011, Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/JSSEM. 19. Shiferaw, B., Hellin, J., Cairns, J., Reynolds, M., Ortiz-Monasterio, I., Banziger, M., Bayou, D. and La Rovere, R. Climate change and food security in the developing regions: vulnerabilities and potential of maize and wheat research to expand options for adaptation and mitigation. Submitted to Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics 20. Verhulst, N., Govaerts, B., Sayre, K.D., Sonder, K., Romero-Perezgrovas, R., Mezzalama, M., Dendooven, L., 2012. Conservation agriculture as a means to mitigate and adapt to climate change, a case study from Mexico. In: Wollenberg, E., Nihart, A., Tapio-Biström, M.-L., Grieg-Gran, M. (Eds.), Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture. Earthscan, Oxon, ISBN: 9781849713924, pp. 287-300. 21. Verhulst, N., Sayre, K.D., Vargas, M., Crossa, J., Deckers, J., Raes, D., Govaerts, B., 2011. Wheat yield and tillage-straw management system × year interaction explained by climatic co-variables for an irrigated bed planting system in northwestern Mexico. Field Crops Research, 124, 347–356, DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2011.07.002 CRP MAIZE & WHEAT activities supporting CCAFS 22 1. Aranjuelo, I., Molero, G., Erice, G., Avice, J. C., & Nogués, S. 2011. Plant physiology and proteomics reveals the leaf response to drought in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.). Journal of Experimental Botany, 62(1), 111-23. 2. Cossani C. M, Slafer G.A., Savin R., 2011. Do barley and wheat (bread and durum) differ in grain weight stability through seasons and water–nitrogen treatments in a Mediterranean location? Field Crops Research 121 (2011) 240–247 3. Erenstein, O., Kassie, G.T., Langyintuo, A., Mwangi, W., 2011. Characterization of Maize Producing Households in Drought Prone Regions of Eastern Africa. Socio-economics Working Paper 1. CIMMYT, Mexico, DF. 4. Jaleta, M., M. Kassie and .Shiferaw (2011)Tradeoffs in Crop Residue Utilization in Mixed Crop-Livestock Systems and Implications for Conservation Agriculture and Sustainable Land Management. Paper submitted to IAAE’s 28th Triennial Conference (August 18-24, 2012), Brazil. 5. Jat ML, Saharawat YS, Majumdar K and Gupta R. 2011. Precision-conservation agriculture practices for smallholder maize farming systems of South Asia. In: Addressing Climate Change effects and Meeting Maize Demand for Asia, Book of extended summaries for the eleventh Asian Maize Conference (Eds Zaidi et al), Nanning, China, November 7-11, 2011, p 370-372, CIMMYT, Mexico, D.F. 6. Kassie, M., M. Jaleta, B. Shiferaw, F. Mmbando and M. Mekuria (2011) Interdependence in Farmer Technology Adoption Decisions in Smallholder Systems: Joint Estimation of Investments in Sustainable Agricultural Practices in Rural Tanzania. Paper submitted to IAAE’s 28th Triennial Conference (August 18-24, 2012), Brazil. 7. Kumar A, Gupta RK, Jat ML, Malik RK, Sidhu HS, Gopal R. 2011. Inclusive research for agriculture development: farmers’ participation and innovation. In: Resilient food systems for a changing world, Proceedings of the 5th World Congress of Conservation Agriculture Incorporating 3rd Farming Systems Design Conference, Brisbane Australia, 26-29 September, 2011, p 282-283. 8. Lopes M and Foyer C. (2011) The impact of high CO2 on plant abiotic stress tolerance. In: Crop Stress Management and Global Climate Change, CABI, JL Araus and G Slafer (Eds) 9. Lopes M and Reynolds MP, 2011. Drought Adaptive Traits and Wide Adaptation in Elite Lines Derived from Resynthesized Hexaploid Wheat. Crop Science, 51(4), 1617. 10. Lopes MS (2011) Physiology as a tool to improve drought and heat tolerance. 1st Regional Winter Wheat Symposium. Tabriz, Iran. 11. Lopes MS (2011) Drought adaptive traits in spring wheat advanced lines and re- synthesized hexaploid wheat. International Workshop on Dryland Science for food security and natural resource management under changing climate 7-9 December, Konya Turkey. 12. Majumdar K, Jat ML and Shahi VB. 2011. Soil nutrient availability for zero till and conventional tilled maize in eastern India. In: Addressing Climate Change effects and Meeting Maize Demand for Asia, Book of extended summaries for the eleventh Asian Maize Conference (Eds Zaidi et al), Nanning, China, November 7-11, 2011, p 388-389, CIMMYT, Mexico, D.F. 13. Shiferaw, B., Negassa, A., Koo, J., Wood, J., Sonder, K., Braun, J-A., and Payne, T., 2011. Future of Wheat Production in Sub-Saharan Africa: Analyses of the Expanding Gap 23 between Supply and Demand and Economic Profitability of Domestic Production. Paper presented at Increasing Agricultural Productivity & Enhancing Food Security in Africa: New Challenges and Opportunities 1-3 November 2011, Africa Hall, UNECA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 14. Verhulst, N., Nelissen, V., Jespers, N., Haven, H., Sayre, K.D., Raes, D., Deckers, J., Govaerts, B., 2011. Soil water content, maize yield and its stability as affected by tillage and crop residue management in rainfed semi-arid highlands. Plant and Soil 344: 73-85, DOI 10.1007/s11104-011-0728-8. CIP Heidinger, H., Yarlequé, C., Posadas, A., Quiroz, R., 2012. TRMM rainfall correction over the Andean Plateau using wavelet multi-resolution analysis. International Journal of Remote Sensing Vol. 33, No. 14: 4583–4602. Milori, D.M.P.B., Segnini, A., da Silva, W.T.L., Posadas, A., Mares, V., Quiroz, R., Martin- Neto, L., 2012. Emerging techniques for soil carbon measurements, In: Wollenberg, E., Nihart, A., Tapio-Bistrom, M.-L., Grieg-Gran, M. (Eds.), Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture. Earthscan, London, UK, pp. 252-262 Milori, D.M.P.B., Segnini, A., da Silva, W.T.L., Posadas, A., Mares, V., Quiroz, R., Martin- Neto, L. (Eds.), 2011. Emerging techniques for soil carbon measurements. CCAFS Working Paper no. 2. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark. Quiroz, R., Posadas, A., Yarlequé, C., Heidinger, H., Barreda, C., Raymundo, R., Gavilán, C., Carbajal, M., Mares, V., Tonnang, H.E.Z., Kroschel, J., Forbes, G.A., De Haan, S., 2012. Challenges to sustainable potato production in a changing climate: A research perspective. Invited paper, Potato Research – Under editorial revision ICARDA – no pubs list on intranet ICRAF (from Table C Activity tables by Themes/Objectives) Mitigation effects from tree planting calculated and reported in an ICRAF working paper: Place, F. et al. 2010. Impact Assessment of WKIEMP: Focus Group Discussions, Household Survey Analyses, and Land Use Change Detection in the Lower Nzoia, Lower Yala, and Lower Nyando River Basins and an end of project economic analysis Place, F. et al. 2011 Economic Analysis of the Western Kenya Integrated Ecosystem Management Project Upon Project Completion submitted to the World Bank. Miyuki; report published, later reproduced as ICRAF working paper Ndegwa G, Moraa V, Jamnadass R, Mowo J, Nyabenge M and Iiyama M. (2011). Potential for biofuel feedstock in Kenya. ICRAF Working Paper No. 139 Nairobi: World Agroforestry Centre. http://dx.doi.org/10.5716/WP11272.PDF. VIRED Institute, 2011. Making Carbon Finance for Sustainable Agriculture Work for the Poor in Western Kenya: Social Impact Assessment report. Presented at the Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing Climate (SACC) project workshop, 11-13 January 2011, in Kisumu, Kenya. Misiko, M, 2011. An analysis of institutions and potential project benefits in Nyando, western Kenya: a study report. Presented at the Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing Climate (SACC) project workshop, 28- 30 June 2011, in Kisumu, Kenya. Cowie A, Penman T, Gorissen L, Winslow M, Lehmann J, Tyrrell T, Twomlow S, Wilkes A et al. 2011. Towards sustainable land management in the drylands: scientific connections in monitoring and assessing dryland Degradation, climate change and biodiversity, in Land Degradation and Development 22: 248-260 Marco Gemmer , Andreas Wilkes, Lucie M. Vaucel, 2011, Governing Climate Change Adaptation in the EU and China: An Analysis of Formal Institutions, in Advances in Climate Change Research 2(1): 1-11 Comment [AN1]: These are all from the Theme 3 table 24 Ajayi et al: Auction design for payments for environmental services: Lessons from field trials in Malawi and Indonesia. Manuscript prepared and under review. Leimona B, van Noordwijk M, Joshi L, Catacutan D, Yatich T, Dietz J, Mwangi H, Gathenya JM, Muthuri C, Sinclair FL, Bhattarai S, Onyango L, Suyanto, Kalinganire A, Noordin Q, Bayala J, Gebrekirstos A, Tscherning K and Duque-Piñon C, 2011. Supporting multifunctionality through realistic, conditional and voluntary actions to enhance trees as source of environmental services. In: Van Noordwijk M, Hoang MH, Neufeldt H, Öborn I, Yatich T, (eds.) How Trees And People Can Co-adapt to Climate Change: Reducing Vulnerability Through Multifunctional Agroforestry Landscapes. Nairobi: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), pp 79-122 http://www.worldagroforestry.org/sea/publication?do=view_pub_detail&pub_no=BC0321-11 Thiongo et al, 2011. Forest soil as sink or source of greenhouse gases: a case study of species effects on nitrous oxide and methane fluxes in Karura forest, Kenya. Paper presented at the 6 th Non CO2 Greenhouse Gases Conference. Amsterdam, 2-4 Nov 2011. Luedeling et al, 2011. Review of carbon sequestration potential of agroforestry in Africa. In: Kumar BM & Nair PK: Carbon Sequestration Potential of Agroforestry Systems: Opportunities and Challenges, 61-84. ICRISAT – no pubs listed on intranet IFPRI – no pubs listed on intranet IITA – no pubs listed on intranet ILRI (from Table C Activity tables by Themes/Objectives) Herrero, M., Hávlik, P., Rufino, M., Notenbaert, A., Thornton, P., Obersteiner, M., Blümmel, M., Duncan, A., Wright, I. 2011. Global livestock: biomass use, products, emissions and excretions. PNAS (in preparation) (datasets ready and in use in the AR5 RCP scenarios) Bouwman, AF, K Klein Goldewijk, KW Van der Hoek, AHW Beusen, DP Van Vuuren, J Willems, MC Rufino, E Stehfest. 2011. Exploring global changes in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in agriculture induced by livestock production for the period 1900-2050. PNAS, doi/10.1073/pnas.1012878108 Quiros, C., Rufino, M. and Herrero, M. 2012. Developing generic tools for characterising agricultural systems for climate and global change studies'. International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya 43 p. Peters, M, Rao, I, Fisher, M., Subbarao, G., Martens, S., Herrero, M, van der Hoek, R, Schultze- Kraft, R., Miles, J, Castro, A., Graefe, S., Tiemann, T., Ayarza, M and Hyman, G. 2011. Chapter 13: Tropical Forage-based systems to mitigate climate change. CIAT Flagship Report: 2011, CIAT, Cali, Colombia, (in press). Boone, R., Conant, R.T. and Hilinski, T. 2011. G-Range: development and use of a beta global rangeland model. Project Report. Colorado State University, International Livestock Research Institute and CCAFS. 66 p. Bryan, E, Ringler, C, Okoba, B, Koo, J, Herrero, M and Silvestri, S. 2011. Agricultural Land Management: Capturing Synergies between Climate Change Adaptation, Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Agricultural Productivity. Report to the World Bank. Report 3b of the project “Adaptation of Smallholder Agriculture to Climate Change in Kenya”. IFPRI – KARI - U of Georgia – ILRI. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC, 100 p. Herrero, M., Thornton, PK, Havlík, P. and Rufino, M. 2011. Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: mitigation options and trade-offs. In: Wollenberg, E., A. Nihart, M.L. Tapio-Bistrom, and C. Seeberg-Elverfeldt (eds) (2011) Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture, Earthscan, London, UK, p. 316-332. IRRI – no pubs list on intranet Comment [AN2]: These are all from the Theme 3 table 25 IWMI Bharati L, Lacombe G, Gurung P, Jayakody P, Hoanh C. T, Smakhtin V. 2011. The impacts of water infrastructure and climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Ganges River Basin. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 44 p. IWMI Research Report 142. doi: 10.5337/2011.210 Mccartney, M.P. & GIRMA, M.M. (submitted) Evaluating the downstream implications of planned water resource development, under current and projected future climate, in the Ethiopian portion of the Blue Nile River. Water International. Forkuor, G., Mccartney, M.P. & Amisigo, B. (2011) Evaluating the implications of future water resources development under current and projected future climate in the Volta Basin. 3rd Ghana Water Forum, 5-7 September 2011, Accra, Ghana. Eguavoen, I., Derib, S.D., Deneke, T.T., Mccartney, M., Otto, A. & Billa, S. (2011) Digging, damming or diverting? Small-scale irrigation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia. ZEF Working Paper 84. Bonn, Germany. 29pp. Xenarios, S., Asante, F. & Mccartney, M.P. (2011) Economic efficiency of water storage options: an application of the approach to Ghana. 3rd Ghana Water Forum, 5-7 September 2011, Accra, Ghana Lacombe G, Hoanh Ct, Smakhtin V. 2011. Multi-year variability or unidirectional trends? Mapping long-term precipitation and temperature changes in continental Southeast Asia using PRECIS regional climate model. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0359-3. Lacombe, G., Mccartney, M.P. & Forkuor, G. (submitted) Drying climate in Ghana over the period 1960-2005: evidence from the resampling-based Mann-Kendall test at local and regional levels. Hydrological Sciences Journal. Lacombe G, Smakhtin V, Hoanh Ct. Rainfall trends in central Mekong Basin: 1953 to 2004. Submitted to Theoretical and Applied Climatology Altchenko, Y., Awulachew, S.B., Brida, A.B., Diallo, H.A., Mogbante, D., Pavelic, P., Tindimugaya, C. And Villholth, K.G. (2011) Management of groundwater in Africa including transboundary aquifers: Implications for meeting MDGs, livelihood goals and climate change adaptation. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, African Climate Policy Centre, Working Paper 6, November 2011. Tenalem Ayenew, Sileshi Mamo, Elias Ali, Abdela Abdu, Merhawi Gebreegziabher And Afework Desalegn (2011) Hydrogeological and groundwater potential evaluation, water quality assessment and socio-economic surveying for small-scale irrigation development in the Raya- Kobo valleys, northern Ethiopia. Final Report to IWMI, September 2011. WorldFish Badjeck M-C et al. Fisheries management and adaptation to climate change in Peru: Scenarios as a creative solution to “wicked problems”. Submitted to Ecology and Society. Badjeck Marie-Caroline; Katikiro, Robert E.; Flitner, Michael; Diop, Ndiaga; Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen. 2010. Envisioning 2050: Climate Change, Aquaculture and Fisheries in West Africa. WorldFish Center Workshop Report 2125. The WorldFish Center, Penang, Malaysia. 28 pp (also available in French). Badjeck, M-C and Diop, N. (Accepted). The Future is now: How scenarios can help Senegalese and Mauritanian fisheries adapt to climate change. Nature et Faune (FAO peer-reviewed open access bilingual journal on natural resources and food security in Africa) Badjeck, M-C, E.H Allison, A.S Halls and N.K Dulvy. 2010. Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods. Marine Policy 34 (3): 357-383. Badjeck, Marie-Caroline; Katikiro, Robert E; Flitner, Michael; Diop, Ndiaga; 26 Schwerdtner Máñez, Kathleen. (2010). Envisioning 2050: Climate Change, Aquaculture and Fisheries in West Africa. Dakar, Senegal 14-16th April 2010. Workshop Report N.2125. Penang/Bremen: WorldFish/ZMT Leucke N, Phillips M, and Weirowski F. 2011a. 31 Life Cycle Assessment on Aquaculture Products: Theory & Practice. Penang, Malaysia: The WorldFish Center. Working Document. Luecke N, Phillips M, and Weirowski F. 2011b. 28 Life Cycle Assessment on Aquaculture Products: Theory & Practice. Case study: integrated farming in Bangladesh. Khulna Bangladesh. Working Document. Melody Braun, and Mustafa Saroar. 155 Initial Participatory Research Assessment for Participatory Action Research on Climate Risk Management. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Field Report. Timmers B. 2011. 44 Climate Change and Variability and Fish Value Chains in Uganda. Penang, Malaysia: The WorldFish Center. Draft Report. Unknown which center this is from Rietberg P. 2011. Clearing land, obscuring rights: seeking benefits and claiming property in a process of oil palm plantation expansion in West-Kalimantan, Indonesia. Wageningen University. Available from http://www.pap.wur.nl/NR/rdonlyres/B69A0B6C-79C5-4B1F-B5C7- 05ACBA0E57EE/139890/PetraRietbergClearinglandobscuringrightsMay2011_MS.pdf Theme 3 2011 Publications Peer-Reviewed Articles Herrero, M., Hávlik, P., Rufino, M., Notenbaert, A., Thornton, P., Obersteiner, M., Blümmel, M., Duncan, A., Wright, I. 2011. Global livestock: biomass use, products, emissions and excretions. PNAS (in preparation) :arvis A, Lau C, Cook S, Wollenberg E, ,ansen :, onilla O, Challinor A. 2011. ‘An integrated adaptation and mitigation framework for developing agricultural research: synergies and trade-offs.’ Experimental Agriculture. 4ϳ(2): 18ϱ–203. Misiko M, Tittonell P, Giller KE, Richards P. 2011. ‘Strengthening understanding and perceptions of mineral fertilize ruse among smallholder farmers: evidence from collective trials in western Kenya.’ Agriculture and ,uman salues. 28(1): 2ϳ-38. Negra C and Wollenberg E. 2011. ‘Lessons from Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation: Advancing agriculture in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.’ Carbon Management. 2(2): 161–173. Norgrove, L., Hauser, S. (In press). Carbon stocks in shaded Theobroma cacao farms and adjacent secondary forests of similar age in Cameroon. Tropical Ecology 54(1). Sheil D, Basuki I, German L, Kuyper, TW, Limberg G, Puri RK, Sellato B, van Noordwijk M, Wollenberg E. 2011. Do Anthropogenic Dark Earths occur in the interior of Borneo? Some initial observations from East Kalimantan. Submitted to Geoderma. sermeulen S and Wollenberg E. 2011. ‘enefits of tropical crops for food security.’ Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 108(9): E30. Vermeulen S, Zougmore R, Wollenberg E, Thornton P, Nelson G, Kristjanson P, Kinyangi J, Jarvis A, Hansen J, Challinor A, Campbell B, Aggarwal P. 2012. Climate change, agriculture 27 and food security: a global partnership to link research and action for low-income agricultural producers and consumers. Current Opinions in Sustainability. Available online 12 January 2012. Vermeulen, S, Aggarwal, PK, Ainslie, A, Angelone, C, Campbell, B, Challinor, AJ, Hansen, JW, Ingram, JSI, Jarvis, A, Kristjanson, P, Lau, C, Nelson, CG, Thornton, PK, Wollenberg, E. 2012. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environmental Science & Policy, 15(1): 136-144. Conference Proceedings Agrawal A, Persha L, Wollenberg E. 2011. Governance, institutions and incentives for climate change mitigation and livelihoods at the forest-farm interface. Paper presented at the 2011 Colorado Conference on Earth System Governance, 17–20. May 2011. Fort Collins, CO, USA. Shames S, Buck LE, Wollenberg E, Kristjanson P. 2011. Institutional Innovations for Engaging Smallholder Farmers in Agriculture Carbon Projects. Paper presented at the 2011 Colorado Conference on Earth System Governance, 17–20. May 2011. Fort Collins, CO, USA. Other Publications Reports Branca G, McCarthy N, Lipper L, Jolejole MC. 2011. Climate-Smart Agriculture: A Synthesis of Empirical Evidence of Food Security and Mitigation Benefits from Improved Cropland Management. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/docrep/015/i2574e/i2574e00.pdf Havemann T and Muccione V. 2011. Mechanisms for aricultural climate change mitigation incentives for smallholders. CCAFS Report no. 6. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Gockowski J, Robiglio V, Muilerman S, and Agyeman NF. 2011. Agricultural Intensification as a Strategy for Climate Mitigation in Ghana. International Institute of Tropical Agriculture. Lee J. 2011. Smallholder Agricultural Carbon Projects In Ghana. Report to CCAFS Theme 3. McCarthy N, Lipper L, Branca G. 2011. Climate-Smart Agriculture: Smallholder Adoption and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/docrep/015/i2575e/i2575e00.pdf Méndez VE, Castro-Tanzi S, Goodall K, Morris KS, Bacon CM, Läderach P, Morris WB, Georgeoglou-Laxalde MU, Davis A, Wollenberg E. 2011. ‘Climate mitigation and smallholder livelihoods in coffee landscapes: synergies and tradeoffs’. Unpublished manuscript. Misiko, M, 2011. An analysis of institutions and potential project benefits in Nyando, western Kenya: a study report. Presented at the Sustainable Agriculture in a Changing Climate (SACC) project workshop, 28-30 June 2011, in Kisumu, Kenya. Narasimhan P. 2011. Climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture: Status & Trends in Ghana. Report to CCAFS Theme 3. Negra C and Wollenberg E. 2011. ‘Lessons from REDDн for agriculture.’ CCAFS Report No. 4. CGIAR Research Program, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Samari H. 2011. State of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts for Agriculture in Mali: National Survey. Report to CCAFS Theme 3. Samari H. 2011. State of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts for Agriculture in Senegal: National Survey. Report to CCAFS Theme 3. 28 Samari H. 2011. State of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts for Agriculture in Burkina Faso: National Survey. Report to CCAFS Theme 3. Streck C, Burns D, and Guimaraes L. 2012. Towards Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: Incentives and benefits for smallholder farmers. CCAFS Report no. 7. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Wang S. 2011. State of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts for Agriculture in Bhutan. Report to CCAFS Theme 3. Wollenberg E, Campbell B, Nihart A, Holmgren P, Seymour F, Sibanda L, and von Braun J. 2011. Actions Needed to Halt Deforestation and Promote Climate-Smart Agriculture. In Peetermans J, ed, Greenhouse Gas Market Report 2011, pp. 95-100. International Emissions Trading Association, Geneva. Working Papers Barbier EB and Tesfaw AT. 2011. Overcoming tenurial constraints to carbon forestry projects in Africa. CCAFS Working Paper no. 10. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Börner J, Wunder S, Wertz-Kanounnikoff S, Hyman G, Nascimento N. 2011. REDD sticks and carrots in the Brazilian Amazon: Assessing costs and livelihood implications. CCAFS Working Paper no. 8. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Brown S, Grais A, Ambagis S, Pearson T. 2012. Baseline GHG Emissions from the Agricultural Sector and Mitigation Potential in Countries of East and West Africa. Forthcoming CCAFS Working Paper. Cohn A, Bowman M, ilberman D, O’Neill K. 2011. The siability of Cattle Ranching Intensification in Brazil as a Strategy to Spare Land and Mitigate Greenhouse Gas Emissions. CCAFS Working Paper no. 11. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Fox J, Castella J-C, Ziegler AD. 2011. Swidden, Rubber and Carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia? CCAFS Working Paper no. 9. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Havemann T. 2011. Financing mitigation in smallholder agricultural systems: Issues and Opportunities. CCAFS Working Paper no. 6. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Kissinger G. 2011. Linking forests and food production in the REDD+ context. CCAFS Working Paper no. 1. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Kissinger G. In progress. Corporate social responsibility and supply agreements in the agricultural sector: Decreasing land and climate pressures. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Milori DMPB, Segnini A, da Silva WTL, Posadas A, Mares V, Quiroz R, Martin-Neto L. 2011. Emerging techniques for soil carbon measurements. CCAFS Working Paper no. 2. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org 29 Olander L, Reed D, Malin D, Haugen-Kozyra K. 2011. A model for building collaborative actions and common understanding on agricultural GHG mitigation: C-AGG, T-AGG and M- AGG. CCAFS Working Paper no. 3. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Robinson BE, Holland MB, Naughton-Treves L. 2011. Does secure land tenure save forests? A review of the relationship between land tenure and tropical deforestation. CCAFS Working Paper no. 7. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Wollenberg E, Hellin J, Herrero M, Wassmann R, Vermeulen S, Neufeldt H, Craufurd P, Rosswall R, Campbell B, Jarvis A, Challinor A, Snook L, Smakhtin V, Kinyangi J. 2012. Climate change adaptation and mitigation for food systems in the developing world. Forthcoming CCAFS Working Paper. Policy Briefs Davis A and Méndez VE. 2011. Prioritizing food security and livelihoods in climate change mitigation mechanisms: Experiences and opportunities in smallholder coffee agroforestry forest communities and REDD+. Policy Brief. Salvadoran Research Program on Development and Environment. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Neely C. 2011. Increasing Agriculture’s Climate Smartness. FAO Policy rief. Available online at: http://www.fao.org/climatechange/29829-092bc24a78d8c3a5ffc520d40f3fe630a.pdf Negra C and Wollenberg E. 2011. Lessons from REDD+ for Agriculture. CCAFS Policy Brief no. 1. CGIAR Research Program, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org Workshop report: CCAFS/FAO Expert Workshop on Smallholder Mitigation: Mitigation Options and Incentive Mechanisms. Rome, 7-8 July 2011. Workshop Summary. Workshop report: CCAFS/FAO Expert Workshop on Smallholder Mitigation: Whole Farm and Landscape Accounting. Rome, 27-28 October 2011. Workshop Summary. Book Wollenberg E, Nihart A, Tapio-Biström M-L, Grieg-Gran M, eds. 2011. ‘Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture.’ Routledge, London, 41ϵ pp. Table of Contents: Introduction 1 Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation: Designing Projects and Policies for Smallholder Farmers Eva Wollenberg, Marja-Liisa Tapio-Biström, Maryanne Grieg-Gran 2 Agricultural Mitigation Approaches for Smallholders in Different Farming Systems Christina Seeberg-Elverfeldt and Marja-Liisa Tapio-Biström 3 Evaluating Synergies and Trade-offs Among Food Security, Development and Climate Change Nancy McCarthy, Leslie Lipper, Wendy Mann, Giacomo Branca, Jeronim Capaldo 4 Achieving Mitigation through Synergies with Adaptation Pete Smith and Eva Wollenberg Institutional arrangements and incentives 5 Challenges Facing Agricultural Access to Carbon Markets Alessandro De Pinto, Marilia Magalhaes, Claudia Ringler 30 6 Reducing Project Costs and Risk for Farmers in Smallholder Agriculture Carbon Projects Seth Shames, Louise E. Buck, Sara J. Scherr 7 How to Make Carbon Finance Work for Smallholders in Africa Bo Lager and Ylva Nyberg 8 Designing Agricultural Mitigation for Smallholders in Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis of Projects in East Africa Jean Lee and Jess Newman 9 Using Certification to Support Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture Jeff Hayward, Gianluca Gondolini, Oliver Bach, Mark Moroge 10 Lessons Learned from REDD for Agriculture Christine Negra and Eva Wollenberg 11 Sustainable Land Management and Carbon Finance: The Experience of the BioCarbon Fund Ellysar Baroudy and Neeta Hooda 12 Financing Mitigation in Smallholder Agricultural Systems: Issues and Opportunities Tanja Havemann 13 Economics of Agricultural Carbon Sequestration in Sub-Saharan Africa Timm Tennigkeit, Fredrich Kahrl, Johannes Wölcke, Ken Newcombe 14 The Potential for Microfinance as a Channel for Carbon Payments Fred Werneck 15 Payments for Environmental Services to Mitigate Climate Change: Agriculture and Forestry Compared Sven Wunder and Jan Börner 16 Avoided Deforestation on Smallholder Farms in the Brazilian Amazon Osvaldo Stella Martins, Erika Pinto, Paulo Moutinho, Maria Lucimar Souza, Ricardo Rettmann, Galdino Xavier, Simone Mazer, Ane Alencar, Isabel Castro 17 An Australian Landscape-based Approach: AFOLU Mitigation for Smallholders Penny van Oosterzee, Noel Preece, Allan Dale 18 Sustaining China’s Agriculture in a Changing Climate: A Multidisciplinary Action through UK–China Cooperation Yuelai Lu, David Powlson, David Norse, David Chadwick, Declan Conway, Brian Ford-Lloyd, Pete Smith, Tim Wheeler GHG Measurement and Accounting 19 Farm-scale Greenhouse Gas Emissions Using the Cool Farm Tool: Application of a Generic Farming Emissions Calculator in Developing Countries Jonathan Hillier, Pete Smith, Tobias Bandel, Stephanie Daniels, Daniella Malin, Hal Hamilton, Christof Walter 20 Using Biogeochemical Process Models to Quantify Greenhouse Gas Mitigation from Agricultural Management Lydia P. Olander 21 An Emissions-intensity Approach for Crediting Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Agriculture: Reconciling Climate and Food Security Objectives in the Developing World 31 Justin S. Baker and Brian C. Murray 22 Emerging Techniques for Soil Carbon Measurements Debora M.B.P. Milori, Aline Segnini, Wilson T.L. Da Silva, Adolfo Posadas, Victor Mares, Roberto Quiroz, Ladislau Martin Neto 23 Carbon Accounting for Smallholder Agricultural Soil Carbon Projects Matthias Seebauer, Timm Tennigkeit, Neil Bird, Giuliana Zanchi 24 Accounting for Quality in Agricultural Carbon Credits: A Verified Carbon Standard for Agricultural Land Management Projects Naomi Swickard and Alison Nihart Case studies: Sectors 25 Conservation Agriculture as a Means to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Case Study from Mexico Nele Verhulst, Bram Govaerts, Ken D. Sayre, Kai Sonder, Ricardo Romero-Perezgrovas, Monica Mezzalama, Luc Dendooven 26 Potential of Agricultural Carbon Sequestration in Sub-Saharan Africa Timm Tennigkeit, Fredrich Kahrl, Johannes Wölcke, Ken Newcombe 27 Livestock and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Mitigation Options and Trade- offs Mario Herrero, Philip K. Thornton, Petr Havlik, Mariana Rufino 28 Home on the Range: The Contribution of Rangeland Management to Climate Change Mitigation Constance L. Neely and Jan De Leeuw 29 Integrated Nutrient Management as a Key Contributor to China’s Low Carbon Agriculture David Norse, David Powlson, Yuelai Lu 30 Climate Change Mitigation in Agroforestry Systems: Linking Smallholders to Forest Carbon Markets Bambi L. Semroc, Götz Schroth, Celia A. Harvey, Yatziri Zepeda, Terry Hills, Saodah Lubis, Candra Wirawan Arief, Olaf Zerbock, Frederick Boltz 31 Livelihood and Environmental Trade-offs of Climate Mitigation in Smallholder Coffee Agroforestry Systems V. Ernesto Méndez, Sebastian Castro-Tanzi, Katherine Goodall, Katlyn S. Morris, Christopher M. Bacon, Peter Läderach, William B. Morris, Maria Ursula Georgeoglou- Laxalde 32 Agricultural Intensification as a Climate Mitigation and Food Security Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa James Gockowski and Piet Van Asten 33 Carbon Trade-offs Along Tropical Forest Margins: Lessons from ASB Work in Cameroon Peter A. Minang, Meine van Noordwijk, James Gockowski 34 Mitigation Options from Forestry and Agriculture in the Amazon Jan Börner and Sven Wunder 1 2011 Theme 4.1 (Linking Knowledge with Action) Annual Report Summary of Theme 4.1 Budgeted Activities Output 4.1.1 Scenarios Activities: EA quantification workshop using GLOBIOM and IMPACT models, in Sept with 30 participants including a mulit-sectoral qualitative/writing team and a quantitative team; WA scenarios development workshop in Oct with 30+ cross-sectoral participants, in conjunction with regional policy organization CORAF/WECARD Deliverables: EA and WA multi-sectoral scenario teams trained and storylines produced, analyzed and refined. EA modelling/quantification of scenarios underway. Proposal for EA policy workshop submitted and accepted; brief, posters and other communication products under development with PANOS (a communications firm) Publications: Chaudhury M, Vervoort V, Kristjanson P, Ericksen P, Ainslie A. Multi-Stakeholder Scenarios as a Boundary Process: Improving Food Security, Environments and Livelihoods in East Africa under Conditions of Climate Change. Submitted to Regional Environmental Change, Dec. 2011. Output 4.1.2 Vulnerability Mapping Activities: Analysis with partners; finalization of report; launch and several high-profile media stories Deliverables: CCAFS report; media stories in BBC, Time and Nature – see: Publications: Mapping hotspots of climate change and food security in 2030. Available at: Output 4.1.3 Linking K with A strategies Activities: Partner capacity building efforts, data and knowledge sharing activities, communications efforts aimed at linking CCAFS outputs to actions Deliverables: trainings and workshops held (CARE project, EcoAg collaboration, household and village baseline research teams, regional gender teams, communicating carbon partners) Publications: 1. Förch W, Kristjanson P, Thornton PK. 2011. Initial Sites in the CCAFS Regions: Eastern Africa, West Africa and IndoͲGangetic Plains. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. 2. Kristjanson P, Garlick C, Ochieng S, Förch W, Thornton PK. 2011. Global Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. 3. Thirteen CCAFS’s sites household baseline result reports (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, Bangladesh, India, Nepal) all available at: 4. Improving carbon initiatives aimed at smallholders: Addressing opportunities and challenges through better communication. ICRAF Policy Brief 11. With CCAFS, CARE, ECOTRUST, ENR, VEDA, Vi Agroforestry, World Vision. Available at: www.worldagroforestry.org and www.ccafs.cgiar.org/resources 5. Kristjanson P, Neufeld H, Gassner A, Mango J, Kyazze F, Desta S, Sayula G, Thiede B, Förch W, Thornton PK, Coe R. Are food insecure smallholder households making changes in their farming practices? Evidence from East Africa. Re-submitted to Food Security, Dec 2011. Training materials and data: household and village-level surveys, data management, analysis and data available on dataverse, through: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-surveys 2 Output 4.1.4 Methods and improved regional capacity in gender-CC analyses Activities: Methods and training materials development, recruitment of regional gender-CC research teams/trainees, training workshops held Deliverables: Training materials and data; regional gender-CC research teams trained Publications: 1. Gender and climate change research in agriculture and food security for rural development. FAO/CCAFS/CGIAR brief. and 2. FAO and CCAFS. Gender and Climate Change Research in Agriculture and Food Security for Rural Development Training Manual. CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Forthcoming on www.fao.org and www.ccafs.cgiar.org (on CCAFS intranet site) 3. Three draft gender-CC reports (available on CCAFS intranet site) Publications Ericksen P J, Thornton P K, Notenbaert A, Cramer L, and Jones P G (2012). Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics. Food Security (forthcoming). Kristjanson P, Neufeld H, Gassner A, Thornton P K, Förch W, Mango J, Kyazze F, Desta S, Kayula G, Thiede B and Kinyangi J (2012). Are food insecure smallholder households making changes in their farming practices? Evidence from East Africa. Food Security (in press). Vermeulen S J, Aggarwal P K, Ainslie A, Angelone C, Campbell B M, Challinor A J, Hansen J W, Ingram J S I, Jarvis A, Kristjanson P, Lau C, Nelson G C, Thornton P K and Wollenberg E (2012). Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 15, 136-144. Vermeulen S, Zougmoré R, Wollenberg E, Thornton P K, Nelson G, Kristjanson P, Kinyangi J, Jarvis A, Hansen J, Challinor A J, Campbell B and Aggarwal P K (2011). Climate change, agriculture and food security: a global partnership to link research and action for low-income agricultural producers and consumers. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4, 1-6. Ashby J, Kristjanson P, Thornton P, Campbell B, Vermeulen S, Wollenberg E (2011). CCAFS Gender Strategy. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org. Ericksen P J, Thornton P K, Notenbaert A, Cramer L, Jones P G and Herrero M (2011). Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics. Report to CCAFS, ILRI, Nairobi, 77 pp. Förch W, Kristjanson P, Thornton PK. 2011. Initial Sites in the CCAFS Regions: Eastern Africa, West Africa and IndoͲGangetic Plains. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available at: Kristjanson P, Garlick C, Ochieng S, Förch W, Thornton PK. 2011. Global Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Mango J, Mideva A, Osanya W. Odhiambo, A, Kristjanson P. 2011. Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results: Lower Nyando, Kenya. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Desta S, Tezera S, Gebru G, Kristjanson P. 2011. Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results: Borana, Ethiopia. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. 3 Kyazze F. B, Kristjanson P. 2011. Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results: Rakai, Uganda. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Lyamchai C, Yanda P, Sayla G, Kristjanson P. 2011. Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results: Lushoto, Tanzania. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Singh RPK, Kristjanson P. 2011. Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results: Bihta, Bihar State, India. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. BCAS, Kristjanson P. 2011. Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results: Paikgacha, Bangladesh. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. CEAPRED, Kristjanson P. 2011. Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results: Sarlahi, Nepal. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Briefs Improving carbon initiatives aimed at smallholders: Addressing opportunities and challenges through better communication. ICRAF Policy Brief 11. With CCAFS, CARE, ECOTRUST, ENR, VEDA, Vi Agroforestry, World Vision. Available at: www.worldagroforestry.org and www.ccafs.cgiar.org/resources Gender and climate change research in agriculture and food security for rural development. FAO/CCAFS/CGIAR brief. and Scenarios for socio-economic development under global environmental change: Testing strategies and building networks to improve food security, environments and livelihoods. CCAFS brief Training materials P. Kristjanson, W. Förch, C. Barahona, C. Garlick, P. Thornton. CCAFS Baseline Household Level Survey: Manual for Survey Sites. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. W. Förch, C. Barahona, P. Kristjanson, P. Thornton, J. Mango, L. Onyango, F. Noor. 2011. CCAFS Village- Level Baseline Study - Implementation Manual. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. FAO and CCAFS. Gender and Climate Change Research in Agriculture and Food Security for Rural Development Training Manual. CGIAR Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Forthcoming on www.fao.org and www.ccafs.cgiar.org Contributions to the Collective Action and Property Rights Program’s: CAPRi Sourcebook entitled Resources, Rights, and Cooperation. A Sourcebook on Property Rights and Collective Action for Sustainable Development. In addition to hard copy distribution, the full sourcebook has been downloaded over 1500 times in PDF, iPAD, and Kindle versions. 4 Proposals/funding EA Knowledge to Action Policy Level Workshop ($100,000) – accepted/funded by USAID Data sharing CCAFS Household-level baseline data for 5,040 households in 12 countries and 36 sites available at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-data Blogs Change and Innovation: climate adaptation practices < http://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/research- highlights/change-and-innovation-climate-adaptation-practices> Food Security in a Changing Climate message reaches Canada < http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/food- security-changing-climate-updates-ccafs-latest-seminar> Developing regional scenarios for climate change and food security in 2030 http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/developing-regional-scenarios-climate-change-and-food-security-2030 Final report: Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics How to talk to farmers about carbon Case studies for Theme 4.1 Case Study 1: Supporting regional female scientists and new research on gender-climate change issues Case type: Social differentiation and gender Brief description of the activity: CCAFS is supporting female researchers in our 3 regions to undertake climate change, agriculture and food security-related research. Towards this aim, a competitive call was extended and grants were awarded to five female researchers at the postdoctoral level working within our regions. These researchers are based at local agricultural research institutes or universities, and are working closely with CCAFS theme leaders on CCAFS priority research areas. This is first step in building new capacity in local partner institutions in this critical and under-invested area. Result of activity: 5 grants issued to local institutions where the researchers are based; research underway; theme and regional leaders supervising Partners involved and their role: ϱ local institutions (NGO’s, Universities and agricultural ministries) in Senegal, Nepal, Uganda, Burkina, Bangladesh Research on which the activity is based: Themes 1-3 relating to gender issues Web address: www.cgiar.ccafs.org/gender Case Study 2: Improving methods and strengthening regional capacity in gender-climate change analysis Case type: Social differentiation and gender/capacity building Brief description of the activity: Working closely with FAO gender and climate change specialists, we brought together research teams from each of our regions and collaboratively reviewed and refined a range of participatory research methods to target them towards addressing key gender-related questions cutting across CCAFS research themes. These new approaches were tested in CCAFS sites in Bangladesh, Uganda and Ghana, and revised further from the lessons learned during the pilot field 5 testing. Training materials were finalized and made freely available on our websites. The pilot studies have generated interesting results that are informing the design of new action gender-sensitive action research across CCAFS regions and themes. Result of activity: Gender-CC research teams trained (and will now be trainers themselves) and methods tested in Bangladesh, Uganda and Ghana. Brief on new training materials disseminated at COP17 in Durban and available at: fao.org/gender. 3 pilot study CCAFS reports published. Synthesis report on pilot studies being written. New participatory action research is being designed in our sites, using these results to ensure that it will appropriately incorporate key gender concerns. Partners involved and their role: FAO and local partner institutions in 3 regions Research on which the activity is based: Themes 1-3 relating to gender issues Web address: www.cgiar.ccafs.org/gender and www.fao.org/climatechange/micca/gender Case Study 3: Scenarios for boundary-spanning and linking to policy Case type: Innovative non-research partners/Capacity building Brief description of the activity: Over 50 participants from national and regional institutions and organizations actively involved in defining environmental and food security policies in both East Africa and West Africa, received training in, and co-developed, regional futures scenarios. These are decision- making tools that capture key uncertainties and challenges for regional food security, environment and livelihoods and help inform new strategies and policies to deal with a changing climate. Result of activity: Enhanced capacity in East and West Africa has been built to create regional environment and socio-economic scenarios in a participatory manner through the training of cross- sectoral public-private scenarios teams that have developed qualitative ‘futures’ storylines that are also being quantified through modelling. A brief that was disseminated at COP17 and a blog on this activity are available at: ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios. Radio shows, posters, videos and other communications materials are under development with PANOS. CCAFS has been requested to design a high-level policy workshop together with The East African Community where the scenarios and the CCAFS vulnerability maps will be shared with policymakers as inputs to inform national and regional climate change and food security policies. Partners involved and their role: Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) and West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development (CORAF/WECARD), along with a wide a range of public and private sector actors. Research on which the activity is based: This activity is informing ongoing research into identifying potential agricultural adaptation and mitigation activities. Web address: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios 6 Synthesis of Program Participant Activities by Output Output 4.1.1 For each region, coherent and plausible futures scenarios to 2030 and looking out to 2050 that examine potential development outcomes under a changing climate and assumptions of differing pathways of economic development; developed for the first time in a participative manner with a diverse team of regional stakeholders. Much progress has been made in East and West Africa in 2011 in the scenarios-related activities led by the U of Oxford team, and a summary progress report is available at www.ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios. Over 50 participants from national and regional institutions and organizations actively involved in defining environmental and food security policies in both East Africa and West Africa, received training in, and co-developed, regional futures scenarios. These are decision-making tools that capture key uncertainties and challenges for regional food security, environment and livelihoods and help inform new adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies to deal with a changing climate. These qualitative ‘futures’ storylines for EA and WA are now being quantified through modelling. A brief that was disseminated at COP17 and a blog on this activity are available at: ccafs.cgiar.org/scenarios. Radio shows, posters, videos and other communications materials are under development with PANOS. CCAFS has been requested to design a high-level policy workshop together with The East African Community where the scenarios and the CCAFS vulnerability maps will be shared with policymakers as inputs to inform national and regional climate change and food security policies, and similar policy events are being discussed with CORAF in West Africa. WorldFish has also been working on global and regional scenarios with a network of partners, including policymakers, in West Africa (ENDA/REPAO) that also has involved building capacity in scenarios methods in Ghana. Output 4.1.2 Global and regional maps, tables and associated syntheses, showing current vulnerable agricultural and fishing populations in relation to food security to 2030 and 2050. This work was done together with Theme 4.2 and led by ILRI and a CCAFS report was published in 2011, entitled “Mapping hotspots of climate change and food security in 2030”. It is available at: ), along with extensive media coverage -see: . This work is now being linked with the scenarios work and communications and policy engagement approaches are being pursued to see that key decision-makers are accessing and using this information to inform food security policies in our regions. Several centres undertook vulnerability assessments in 2011, including studies on impacts of CC by CIAT in Colombia and Thailand, and food security vulnerability maps in maize and wheat production systems by CIMMYT. Much of this work will be synthesized in 2012 as a background paper for the report on climate change and food security by the ,igh Level Panel of Experts of the UN’s Committee on World Food Security (CFS). A capacity strengthening and training workshop that included 25 participants from across South Asia was held that focused on climate change scenarios and crop modelling. 7 Output 4.1.3 Evidence on, testing and communication of, successful strategies, approaches, policies, and investments contributing to improved science-informed climate change-agricultural development-food security policies and decision making. Numerous partner capacity building efforts (e.g. survey design, data management, survey implementation, data analysis training), data and knowledge sharing activities (e.g. widely sharing all CCAFS baseline survey materials on the web using dataverse), and many engagement and communications efforts aimed at linking CCAFS outputs to actions were carried out in 2011 together with multiple CG centres, NGO partners and policymakers (e.g. scenarios training and development workshops, blogs, briefs, videos see: ccafs.cgiar.org/resources and amkn.org). While most activities falling under this output are reported elsewhere, one example of centre’s activities here is ICRAF’s work on knowledge and information sharing products (KISPs) in Central and West Africa as well as East Africa. Partnership workshops were held in 2011 and a communication strategy was developed. An ‘evergreen agriculture’ web page has been created on the ICRAF website (www.worldagroforestry.org/evergreen_agriculture). Output 4.1.4 Analyses providing evidence of the benefits of, strategies for, and enhanced regional capacity in, gender and pro-poor climate change research approaches that will increase the likelihood that CCAFS-related research will benefit women and other vulnerable as well as socially differentiated groups. Analyses and evidence. New gender-focused research is underway in our 3 regions, by five female researchers who were awarded CCAFS grants. These researchers are based at local agricultural research institutes or universities, and are working closely with CCAFS theme leaders on CCAFS priority research areas. This is first step in building new capacity in local partner institutions in this critical and under- invested area. Bioversity initiated cross-site studies on the role of gender in conserving genetic diversity and indigenous knowledge in India, Nepal and olivia, and its ‘Seeds for Needs’ project in Ethiopia is doing participatory varietal selection with women. Improved tools and capacity. Working closely with FAO gender and climate change specialists, we brought together research teams from each of our regions and collaboratively reviewed and refined a range of participatory research methods to target them towards addressing key gender-related questions cutting across CCAFS research themes. These new approaches were tested in CCAFS sites in Bangladesh, Uganda and Ghana (supported by IWMI, ICRISAT and ILRI), and revised further from the lessons learned during the pilot field testing. Training materials were finalized and made freely available on our websites. The pilot studies have generated interesting results that are informing the design of new action gender-sensitive action research across CCAFS regions and themes. CIAT is working closely with NGO’s and private-public sector partners in LA and developing gender- sensitive supply chain approaches/tools. ICRAF is looking at institutional arrangements for payments for ecosystem services in East Africa and SE Asia and how they can enhance benefits to women. In South Asia, additional gender and climate change-focused capacity strengthening workshops were held with 20 participants from Nepal, India and Sri Lanka. Some of these trainers then provided training to 35 rural women leaders in Punjab. A training manual on gender and climate change was developed for South Asia. See: A new cross-CG gender research committee has been formed, with an objective of stimulating and designing new cross-CRP gender-targeted research across CCAFS/other CRP’s ‘gender sentinel’ sites 8 Output 4.1.5 Mainstreaming adaptation strategies into national policies, agricultural development plans, and key regional and global processes related to agriculture and rural development, food security and climate change. In East Africa, a regional learning partnership was developed and a learning platform web interface was designed to bring together and share widely CCAFS-related information and knowledge. The information being brought together in this learning platform is providing input to the Thematic Working Group 3 on the National Adaptation Plan in Kenya, which is informing Kenya’s National Climate Change Response Strategy. CCAFS regional program leaders and various CG researchers involved in different CRP’s have been involved in policy dialogues with farmer’s organizations – ROPPA in WA and EAFF in EA, and SACAU in Southern Africa (this is in addition to the scenarios work with these organizations). Regional dialogues on CCAFS related policy, research and development were initiated with policymakers, civil society, donors and researchers from India, Nepal and Bangladesh. A high level policy meeting with the President of Nepal was held. ICRAF and ASB supported several events at COP17, including a learning event on landscape approaches, as well as an event at a SBSTA meeting in Bonn; posters and briefs are available at www.worldagroforestry.org). Output 4.1.6 Building of capacities to engage in global policy making processes and adopt risk management strategies. Various CCAFS-supported partners from West African partner organizations, including CORAF, AGRHMET, ACMAD, FARA, ROPPA, have effectively participated in global events (e.g. global science conference on climate smart agriculture, Ede-Wageningen – www.gscsa2011.org/workinggroups/theme1a.aspx), the CCAFS Science meeting, ARDD and Forest Day- COP17 in Durban (www.agricultureday.org). Several CCAFS partners from East Africa also attended COP17, where a SBSTA agricultural working group was agreed upon, and CCAFS began organizing follow-up workshops in early 2012 with COMESA, EAC and SADC partners to help further articulate the African position on agriculture. 1 2011 Theme 4.2 Technical Reporting 1.1 Outcomes – none achieved yet 1.2 Impact studies – none due yet 1.3 Activity Summary Output 4.2.1 Integrated assessment framework, toolkits and databases to assess climate change impacts on agricultural systems and their supporting natural resources 4.2.1.1 Regional site and baseline characterisation Activities: Household baseline data collected at all sites, data collated and analysed, site reports made available on the CCAFS website. Village baseline survey designed and implemented, site reports written up. Organisational baseline survey designed, currently being implemented. Participatory process designed and implemented to select two new target regions for CCAFS, to come on-line in 2012. Deliverables: Site reports, baseline data, all materials made available on website. First in a series of papers on the baseline surveys written and submitted for publication. Publications: CCAFS reports: Förch W, Kristjanson P, Thornton PK, 2011. Initial Sites in the CCAFS Regions: Eastern Africa, West Africa and Indo-Gangetic Plains. ccafs.cgiar.org/where-we- work Kristjanson P, Garlick C, Ochieng S, Förch W, Thornton PK, 2011. Global Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results. ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-surveys Thirteen household baseline result reports at ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-surveys Kristjanson P, Neufeld H, Gassner A, Mango J, Kyazze F, Desta S, Sayula G, Thiede B, Förch W, Thornton PK, Kinyangi J, Coe R, 2012. Are food insecure smallholder households making changes in their farming practices? Evidence from East Africa. Food Security (in press). Training materials and data: household and village-level surveys, data management, analysis and data available on dataverse, through ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline- surveys Thornton PK, Förch W, 2011. Additional CCAFS Target Regions: Recommendations to the ISP. CCAFS document, 17 pages. Roque de Pinho J, Galvin KA, 2011. Maasai Voices On Climate Change: Understanding Climate From the Ground Up. A trailer for a participatory film project in Kenya. To be linked to the CCAFS website. 2 4.2.1.2 Downscaling needs and methodologies Activities: Two activities commissioned on new methods: one on reconstructing daily weather data and downscaling, and one on generating synthetic data sequences that capture the statistical properties of observed near-term climate variability, in the absence of reliable model-based forecasts of regional “near-term” climate change. Deliverables: project reports, workshop report, software, software documentation. Publications: Quiroz R, Posadas A, 2011. Application of nonlinear techniques for daily weather data reconstruction and downscaling coarse climate data for local predictions. CCAFS website. Greene AM, Goddard L, Hansen JW, 2012. Toward a rubric for the simulation of regional decadal variability for agricultural and other applications. CCAFS website. Greene AM, 2011. The Simgen software package: User guide and notes. CCAFS website. 4.2.1.3 Downscaled climate data and repository Activities: Suites of downscaled climate data for the 2030s to 2090s from climate models used in IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report generated and archived, for standardised applications. Development and application of a tool, MarkSimGCM, based in Google-Earth, that can generate “plausible” daily weather data in DSSAT format for future climate change scenarios. Deliverables: report, web-based storage and archiving (ccafs-climate.org), web-based tool ( gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/), papers in refereed journals. Publications: Jones PG, Thornton PK, Heinke J, 2011. Generating characteristic daily weather data using downscaled climate model data from the IPCC Fourth Assessment. https://hc.box.net/shared/f2gk053td8 Jones PG, Thornton PK, 2012. Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications. Agricultural Systems (submitted). 4.2.1.4 Evaluation of global climate models for the three CCAFS regions Activities: Completion of reports on the climate of the three CCAFS target regions and the implications of global warming for agriculture, focusing on those aspects of climate change that will have greatest impact on the crops currently grown in each region. This work investigated the ability of models to reproduce the observed climate in each region and the reliability of future climate and associated crop growth projections. Deliverables: reports on each CCAFS region and a forward-looking paper on prospects for climate modelling in the next 5-10 years. Publications: Climate Change in CCAFS Regions: Recent Trends, Current Projections, Crop-Climate Suitability, and Prospects for Improved Climate Model Information. Part 1, West Africa (R Washington & M Hawcroft); Part 2, East Africa (R Washington & H Pearce); Part 3, The 3 Indo-Gangetic Plain (M New, M Rahiz & J Karmacharya); Part 4, Progress in Climate Science Modelling: a look forward (R Washington). CCAFS working papers. 4.2.1.6 Databases Activities: Databases for soils, agricultural systems, and natural resources in the CCAFS regions evaluated, gap-filled, collated and made available. Household data collection tool (IMPACT-Lite) developed and tested at CCAFS sites in Kenya and Bangladesh. Development and implementation of a CCAFS data management policy. Deliverables: reports, databases on the web, workshop reports and presentations, software tools and documentation. Publications: Chaves B, Hoogenboom G, 2011. Strengthening Soil Databases for Climate Change and Food Security Modeling Applications: WISE Soil Profile Database V3.1 for DSSAT Applications. CCAFS Website. Fritz S, See L, 2011. Characterizing and Validating Global Land Cover. A workshop organised by IIASA, CGIAR Consortium for Spatial Information (CSI), Group on Earth Observation (GEO), the Agricultural Monitoring Communities of Practice (COP), GOFC- GOLD, and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC). Presentations and summaries at www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/FOR/lc/presentations.html and www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/FOR/lc/breakout.html See L, Fritz S, Thornton P, You L, Becker-Reshef I, Justice C, Leo O, Herrero M, 2012. Building a Consolidated Community Global Cropland Map. EarthZine (in press). Robinson T, D’Aietti L, 2011. Global Mapping of Intensive Livestock Production Systems, Quarterly Reports. CCAFS website. Quiros C, Rufino M, Herrero M, 2012. Developing generic tools for characterising agricultural systems for climate and global change studies. CCAFS Working Paper. 4.2.1.7 Agricultural impact model scoping and documentation Activities: Two scoping studies undertaken on agricultural impact model gaps and needs: household models and global integrated assessment models. Contributions made to the AgMIP program on crop and livestock model inter-comparison and improvement. Development of an Agricultural Modelling Web Site started, to provide an information and discussion centre for the global agricultural impacts modelling community. Deliverables: reports, model information web site, peer-reviewed papers. Publications: van Wijk MT, Rufino MC, Enahoro D, Parsons D, Silvestri S, Valdivia RO, Herrero M, 2012. A review on farm household modelling with a focus on climate change adaptation and mitigation. CCAFS Working Paper. Havlik P, 2012. A review of global integrated assessment tools. CCAFS Working Paper. 4 4.2.1.9 Toolkit and toolkit component development Activities: Assembling toolkit components to evaluate likely effects of specific adaptation and mitigation options in CCAFS target regions. Engagement with key users to build capacity in use of tools and data. Targeted enhancements developed to existing integrated assessment and agricultural impacts models, and better linkages with new and existing data sets to allow local, regional and global impact assessment to be carried out. Contributions to the quantification of the regional scenario exercises undertaken with two global models, IMPACT and Globiom. Contributions to a mapping activity to identify hotspots of food system vulnerability in the global tropics. Contribution to the development of the “E-Atlas of African Agricultural Research and Development” in collaboration with ,arvestChoice, CSI and ESRI. Deliverables: Reports, software and software documentation, tools developed for uptake by users, electronic and hard-copy versions of atlas. Publications: Boone RB, Conant RT, Hilinski TE, 2011. G-Range: Development and Use of a Beta Global Rangeland Model. Report and software available on CCAFS website. 1.4 Activity Reporting See consolidated spreadsheet. 1.5 Publications Ericksen P J, Thornton P K, Notenbaert A, Cramer L, and Jones P G (2012). Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics. Food Security (submitted). Kristjanson P, Neufeld H, Gassner A, Thornton P K, Förch W, Mango J, Kyazze F, Desta S, Kayula G, Thiede B and Kinyangi J (2012). Are food insecure smallholder households making changes in their farming practices? Evidence from East Africa. Food Security (in press). Vermeulen S J, Aggarwal P K, Ainslie A, Angelone C, Campbell B M, Challinor A J, Hansen J W, Ingram J S I, Jarvis A, Kristjanson P, Lau C, Nelson G C, Thornton P K and Wollenberg E (2012). Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environmental Science & Policy 15, 136-144. Vermeulen S, Zougmoré R, Wollenberg E, Thornton P K, Nelson G, Kristjanson P, Kinyangi J, Jarvis A, Hansen J, Challinor A J, Campbell B and Aggarwal P K (2011). Climate change, agriculture and food security: a global partnership to link research and action for low- income agricultural producers and consumers. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4, 1-6. Moore N, Alagarswamy G, Pijanowski B, Thornton P K, Lofgren B, Olson J, Andresen J, Yanda P and Qi J (2011). East African food security as influenced by future climate change and land use change at local to regional scales. Climatic Change online, DOI 10.1007/s10584- 011-0116-7 Herrero, Gerber P, Vellinga T, Garnett T, Leip A, Opio C, Westhoek H J, Thornton P K, Olesen J, Hutchings N, Montgomery H, Soussana J-F, Steinfeld H and McAllister T (2011). 5 Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: the importance of getting the numbers right. Animal Feed Science and Technology 166-167, 779-782. Boone R B, Galvin K A, BurnSilver S B, Thornton P K, Ojima D A and Jawson J R (2011). Using coupled simulation models to link pastoral decision making and ecosystem services. Ecology and Society 16(2), 6. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art6/ Thornton PK, Jones P G, Ericksen P J and Challinor A J (2011). Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a four-plus degree world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Series A 369, 117-136. doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0246 Ashby J, Kristjanson P, Thornton P, Campbell B, Vermeulen S, Wollenberg E (2011). CCAFS Gender Strategy. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org. Kristjanson P, Garlick C, Ochieng S, Förch W and Thornton P K (2011). Global Summary of Baseline Household Survey Results. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org. Thornton P K, Rufino M C, Karanja S, Jones P G, Mutie I, Herrero M (2011). Genesis Reversed: Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Livelihoods in Mixed Crop-Livestock Systems of East Africa. Final report to the World Bank. International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi. 162 pp. Thornton P K (2011). Socioeconomic dimensions of crop modelling. Symposium Honoring James Jones, ASA Annual Meetings, San Antonio, 19 October 2011. Paper 196-3, online at a-c-s.confex.com/crops/2011am/webprogram/ Paper67848.html Thornton P K and Förch W (2011). Additional CCAFS Target Regions: Recommendations to the ISP. CCAFS document, 17 pages. See L, Fritz S, Thornton P, Justice C, Becker-Reshef I, Leo O and Herrero M (2011). Building a consolidated community cropland product. Earthzine (www.earthzine.org), in press. Herrero M, Thornton P K, Havlik P and Rufino M (2011). Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions: mitigation options and trade-offs. In: Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture (eds E Wollenberg, A Nihart, M L Tapio-Bistrom, M Grieg-Gran). Earthscan, London (in press). Robinson T P, Thornton P K., Franceschini G, Kruska R L, Chiozza F, Notenbaert A, Cecchi G, Herrero M, Epprecht M, Fritz S, You L, Conchedda G and See L (2011). Global livestock production systems. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), 152 pp. Thornton P K, Herrero M and Jones P G (2011). Adaptation to climate change in mixed crop- livestock farming systems in developing countries. In: Handbook on Climate Change and Agriculture (eds R Mendelsohn and A Dinar). Elgar (in press). Thornton P K (2011). A framework on addressing climate change adaptation and vulnerabilities. Chapter 15 (pp 205-211) in J Gonsalves, P Mohan (eds), Strengthening Resilience in Post-Disaster Situations: Stories, Experience and Lessons From South Asia. Academic Foundation. Delhi, and IDRC, Ottawa. Ericksen P J, Thornton P K, Notenbaert A, Cramer L, Jones P G and Herrero M (2011). Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics. Report to CCAFS, ILRI, Nairobi, 77 pp. New M, Anderson K, Bows A, Fung F and Thornton P K (2011). SR8: The possible impacts of high levels of climate change in 2060 and implications for migration. Report for the UK 6 Government Foresight Project on Migration and Global Environmental Change, 56 pp. Online at www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/ foresight/docs/migration/science- reviews/11-1126-sr8-impact-high-levels-climate-change-2060-for-migration.pdf Förch W, Kristjanson P and Thornton P K (2011). Initial Sites in the CCAFS Regions: Eastern Africa, West Africa and Indo-Gangetic Plains. CCAFS Report, 74 pp. Herrero M, MacMillan S, Johnson N, Ericksen P, Duncan A, Grace D, and Thornton P K (2011). Improving Food Production from livestock. Chapter 14 (pp 155-163) in State of the World 2011: Innovations that Nourish the Planet. Washington DC, Worldwatch Institute, 155-163. 1.6 Case Studies 1. Title: Baseline surveys at household and village levels in the CCAFS benchmark sites Case type: Social differentiation and gender Brief description of the activity: CCAFS is engaged in conducting baseline surveys at the household, village and organizational levels across the target regions. The survey instruments being used adhere to high quality standards so that cross-site comparisons can be made. Households and villages will be revisited in the future to monitor what changes have occurred since the baseline survey was carried out. The goal is assess what kinds of changes have occurred and whether these changes are helping households adapt to, and mitigate, climate change. The baselines are allowing us to explore gender differences in target populations (for example, in access to information and to resources). Result of activity: Survey manuals, data sets and site reports are available to whomever is interested, through the CCAFS website and stored on ,arvard University’s Dataserse archiving system. Syntheses and cross-site comparisons are currently being written up for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Partners involved and their role: the Statistical Services Centre (University of Reading) is playing a key role in design and implementation of the baselines, which are administered through local institutions (NGOs, Universities and agricultural ministries) in all CCAFS sites in Senegal, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Bangladesh, Nepal and India. Research on which the activity is based: this activity is providing key information to CCAFS that will be used for monitoring and evaluation purposes in the future. Web address: ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-surveys 2. Title: Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics Case type: Communications Brief description of the activity: Climate change will have significant consequences for food security, particularly in parts of the global tropics where agriculture is a major activity and/ or many households are currently chronically food insecure. A mapping exercise was carried out to identify “hotspots” of climate change and food insecurity to target CCAFS’s research on adaptation, mitigation and risk management. A novel approach was developed using vulnerability domains combining nine different thresholds of climate change exposure with a sensitivity threshold and a threshold for adaptive capacity. Sensitivity was based on percent of area cropped and adaptive capacity was based upon prevalence of stunting among 7 children under five. The area and population in each of eight vulnerability domains varied considerably among the different climate exposure thresholds, highlighting different parts of the global tropics as highly vulnerable or less vulnerable. Result of activity: The report was launched with a press release. Subsequent media coverage was very extensive, with the report being picked up by several hundred news websites and publications in more than 15 countries. Several radio interviews were given also. In addition to highlighting the critical links between climate change and food security, the report was also used as one input to a participatory process to select two additional target regions for CCAFS. Partners involved and their role: the study was led and conducted by scientists at ILRI, in collaboration with Waen Associates (climate modelling) in the UK. Other contributors to the design workshop included the University of KwaZulu Natal, the Food Economy Group, FAO, and Cornell University. Research on which the activity is based: The activity built on a wide range of previous vulnerability mapping efforts to provide a snapshot for the global tropics. Sub-national vulnerability assessment work is being carried out in the CCAFS regions to add depth to our understanding of the dynamics of vulnerability and food security. Web address: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/reports-and-policy-briefs 3. Title: Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications Case type: Capacity strengthening Brief description of the activity: In this activity, a generalised downscaling and data generation method was developed, which takes the outputs of a General Circulation Model and allows the stochastic generation of daily weather data that are to some extent characteristic of future climatologies. Such data can then be used to drive any agricultural model that requires daily (or otherwise aggregated) weather data. The method uses an amalgamation of unintelligent empirical downscaling, climate typing and weather generation. A web-based software tool was developed that utilises a subset of the climate models and scenario runs carried out for the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This is available on the web as a Google Earth application. The tool will be updated in 2012 with climate model data from the new runs being carried out for the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. Result of activity: Once the software tool was available, it was used as one component of a training course in Nepal in September 2011 on “Using Climate Scenarios and Analogues for Designing Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture”, attended by 2ϱ participants from Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Niger and Senegal. The tool continues to be heavily used on the website, and at least three participants from the training course are currently utilising the tool and methods in their own research. Partners involved and their role: the software tool was a collaboration between scientists and software developers at Waen Associates in the UK, ILRI in Kenya and CIAT in Colombia. Research on which the activity is based: The activity builds on previous work on weather generators and downscaling, and puts a tool in the public domain that provides daily weather data with which users can run a wide variety of agricultural impact models. Web address: http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ 8 1.7 Synthesis of Sub-theme Activities Output 4.2.1 Integrated assessment framework, toolkits and databases to assess climate change impacts on agricultural systems and their supporting natural resources Considerable progress was made in designing and implementing baseline data collection activities at the 15 CCAFS core benchmark sites in three regions and 12 countries. The objectives of the baselines were the same at the three levels at which the work is being carried out: to allow the construction and measurement of indicators of behaviour, in relation to climate change adaptation, mitigation and risk management, that can be measured in the future. The goal is assess what kinds of changes have occurred and whether these changes are helping households adapt to, and mitigate, climate change. The baselines, at household, village and organisational level, will allow CCAFS to explore gender and other social differences in target populations (for example, in access to information and to resources). The baselines will be completed in early 2012 for three CCAFS regions (East Africa, West Africa, and the Indo-Gangetic Plain). Site reports, baseline data, and all training materials are available on-line, through the DataVerse archiving system. Results are being analysed and written up for publication. The work has involved a wide range of national partners in the regions, as well as several CG Centres, particularly ILRI, IWMI and ICRISAT. This work will contribute substantially to monitoring and evaluation in CCAFS in the coming years. Several activities were undertaken in relation to the downscaling of outputs from coarse- resolution climate models to render them more useful for evaluating the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food systems and for assessing adaptation, mitigation and risk management options. CIAT produced data from 24 climate models using two downscaling methods and made these available through a dedicated CCAFS website, www.ccafs- climate.org. Several other organisations have produced downscaled data for the 2030s to the 2090s. These include ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute), IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute), PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), HarvestChoice, and the IPM CRSP (Integrated Pest Management Collaborative Research Support Program). All of them provided their own datasets that were added to the website. A tool was developed, MarkSimGCM, based in Google-Earth, that can generate “plausible” daily weather data in a common crop-modelling format for future climate change scenarios. This tool is available at gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM as well as via ccafs-climate.org. This website (ccafs-climate.org) is accessed 150 times per day, and during 2011 it received 16,300 unique visitors. Data from new climate model experiments (CMIP5) are being gathered and processed, and will become available in due course. At the same time, more investigative research activities were carried out. CIP developed and tested a new method, based on wavelets, multifractals and neural networks, for climate downscaling. Software was developed for carrying out high-resolution downscaling. The method can also be used to fill in missing daily rainfall data in historical records. The IRI developed methods and software to generate synthetic weather data sequences that capture the statistical properties of observed near-term climate variability, in the absence of reliable model-based forecasts of regional “near-term” climate change. Several of these 9 downscaling methods are being contrasted and compared, and that work will continue in 2012. A cross-theme, multi-year initiative was set up as one outcome of the CCAFS Science Meeting in June 2011, to work on the science of seamless weather prediction over the near term, from 3 months to 20 years into the future (the CCAFS Near-Term Climate Project). That work is being led by the University of Cape Town, and will involve partners working with the Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 (CMIP5) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and several CG centres (CIAT, CIP, ILRI, and possibly others). A series of reports was completed by scientists at the University of Oxford on the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed climate in each of the CCAFS regions. The object was to establish how reliable future climate and associated crop growth projections might be. The influences and interactions that control each region’s climate are complex and region-specific, and in general the climate models have difficulty in simulating observed climate adequately, particularly rainfall timing and amounts. Projections for changes in crop cultivation limits were carried out for the major crops grown in each region. While the outlook for agriculture in all regions is uncertain, the reports contain a wealth of detail about the possible future distribution and performance of key crops during the rest of this century. Substantial increases in the reliability of projections from climate models are not expected any time soon, so careful evaluation of results will continue to be needed in the CCAFS regions when it comes to designing agricultural adaptation, mitigation and risk management strategies. Similar reports are planned for the two additional CCAFS regions that will come on board during 2012. Many of the Centres in the CGIAR undertake a considerable amount of work in relation to databases, and the work under this objective contributes to this much larger effort by filling in several key gaps that are of particular importance to climate change and food security work. ICRAF developed databases for Africa from remotely-sensed information related to land properties such as soil carbon, vegetation cover, and land degradation risk factors at different scales. Work is being done to make these databases accessible on open-source platforms and to develop interactive web-interfaces for map generation. These data will provide users with an archive of recent historical changes in land cover and land properties, as well as providing a monitoring system for the future. This work is being led by AFSIS (the Africa Soil Information Service). Other soils database work has been carried out by partners at Washington State University, which has resulted in a large soil profile database (WISE version 3, see www.isric.org/projects/world-inventory-soil-emission-potentials-wise) being formatted and data-filled for agricultural modelling Applications. This will be available on- line in early 2012. The collation of more detailed information on the agricultural systems operated by householders in the tropics is a key gap. ILRI has developed a household data collection tool, called IMPACT-Lite (Integrated Modelling Platform for Mixed Animal Crop systems) that can be used to collect detailed information from agricultural households concerning the details of the crop and livestock enterprises that they operate, along with information on labour and input use, food security, and gender differentiation within the household. The tool was tested at CCAFS sites in Kenya and Bangladesh in 2011, and will be used across all CCAFS 10 regions in 2012. At a more aggregated scale, scientists at FAO worked on the generation of global maps of intensive livestock production systems, with a particular focus on landless monogastric systems, for which spatially-explicit global data are lacking. One key input to the spatial delineation of agricultural systems is more accurate cropland extent maps. IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) is leading a multi-year effort to building a consolidated community global cropland map using crowd-sourcing techniques. This work is being undertaken in collaboration with the CGIAR Consortium for Spatial Information (CSI), the Group on Earth Observation (GEO), the Agricultural Monitoring Communities of Practice (COP), GOFC-GOLD (Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics), and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC). Some crop and livestock modelling activities were undertaken in 2011. CIAT, in collaboration with the University of Leeds and the World Bank, developed enhanced niche- based approaches for analysing climate change impacts on major and minor crops. Detailed calibration procedures were developed for the model EcoCrop and the model was used for projecting the impact of climate change on banana (tropical and sub-tropical), potato, dry beans, cassava and sorghum. Work is ongoing on other crops in Africa and South Asia, and collaboration was established with the Global Crop Diversity Trust (GCDT) to produce vulnerability analyses for about 20 more crops. IRRI undertook a study to assess the possible impact of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines using several tools including the rice crop model ORYZA2000. That work found that management effects on rice yield variability outweigh year-to-year weather variability, and no long-term trends were found that explain rice yield patterns. With regard to livestock, colleagues at Colorado State University (CSU) developed G-Range, a moderate-complexity global rangeland model designed to be used for climate change studies. This addresses a direct gap in the current arsenal of tools that can be brought to bear on agricultural impact studies. The model, based on components of CENTURY, DAYCENT and Savanna (well-known soil and ecosystem models developed at CSU also), will be further tested in 2012 and several impact assessments are planned. Several Centres undertook vulnerability assessments during 2012. CIAT conducted a case study of rice and livestock methane emissions and climate change adaptation strategies in Colombia. Another study was carried out for Thailand, where suitability impacts were assessed for several crops using the EcoCrop model, and economic costs of yield changes estimated. Detailed impact analyses were finalized using niche-based approaches for countries in the Andean region, including Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia, and the results incorporated in planning exercises and policy briefs. CIMMYT developed a policy brief based on food security vulnerability maps in maize and wheat production systems, and prototype regional scenarios were developed with a wide range of partners. CIP developed vulnerability maps and data sets for potato and sweet potato systems in several Andean countries. A lot of this work will be synthesised in early 2012 as a background paper for the report on climate change and food security being produced by the High Level Panel of Experts of the UN’s Committee on World Food and Security (CFS). Work was undertaken in relation to assembling integrated assessment frameworks and toolkits that can help users analyze likely effects of specific adaptation and mitigation options. AfricaRice worked with IRRI on mapping actual and potential rice areas in Africa and 11 modelling the effect of climate change on future production, as well as collaborating with the Global Yield Gap Atlas project (GYGA). ICRAF made available toolboxes for REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) and AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses) projects to practitioners and policy makers at various levels, work carried out in collaboration with the ASB (Alternatives to Slash-and-Burn) Partnership for Tropical Forest Margins as well as other international organizations. ILRI worked with IIASA to incorporate livestock issues into the GLOBIOM model (GLOBIOM is a global recursively dynamic partial equilibrium model integrating the agricultural, bioenergy and forestry sectors). The resulting model is being used to estimate the impacts of climate change scenarios on food production, land use change, and greenhouse gas emissions. Output 4.2.2 Socially-differentiated decision aids and information developed and communicated for different stakeholders Preparatory work was carried out during 2011 on this output. Most work as done on putting out a call for proposals on “Review of and strategy development for climate change communications and social learning in climate change”. The work was awarded to a UK- based consortium of IIED ( International Institute for Environment and Development) and IDS (Institute of Development Studies), and will be completed in the first four months of 2012. This will be followed by a workshop and case studies in the CCAFS regions, and a ramping-up of activities under this output to contribute to the outcomes that need to be achieved by 2015. ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Objective 4.3 Refine frameworks for policy analysis Outcome 4.3 New Knowledge on how alternative policy and program options impact agriculture and food security under climate change incorporated into strategy development by national agencies in at least 10 key international and regional agencies Output 4.3.1 Tools developed and climate change impacts assessed at global and regional levels on agricultural systems (producers, consumers, natural resources), national/regional economies, and international transactions Center-related activities involved broad-scale modeling tools developed to access climate change impact on agricultural systems, as well as dissemination activities on regional assessments. IFPRI This section includes both activities supported by theme 4.3 funds and bilateral funds to IFPRI. Improvements to the Global Economic Model (IMPACT) suite included better integration with the Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) crop modeling suite, improvements to the DSSAT suite itself (integration of the Oryza model into DSSAT) and development of a metric to represent share of population at risk of hunger. Two sets of country-specific reports on agricultural vulnerability to climate change were undertaken. In each of these, national authors worked to a common, standard outline and with a standard set of IMPACT results for their countries. National authors then customized the reports to better meet their national needs and in some cases with data more appropriate to their national situations. The first set of studies was for Sub Saharan Africa, in conjunction with a project funded by the German Aid Agency. Country level vulnerability studies in Eastern, Western, and Southern Africa (ASARECA coordinated the East Africa studies, CORAF the West African studies, and FANRPAN the Southern African studies) were completed in 2011. The process of preparing peer-reviewed IFPRI research monographs was begun in 2011. These will be published in 2012. The second set of report was for the BRICS countries plus Indonesia and the US. These reports were prepared for a major conference on food security and climate change coorganized by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and IFPRI and supported by CCAFS (see case study section). In late 2011, a model intercomparison exercise was begun, with support to AgMIP (see case study section). Ten of the world’s leading models with significant agricultural components ran a single reference scenario with standardized drivers, and initial results were compiled for discussion in January 2012. The second phase of this activity will be to use scenarios for the IPCC’s AR5 scenarios with reports to be completed by end 2012. ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 CIMMYT With CCAFS support to the climate change component of the Global Futures project (CIMMYT, CIP, CIAT, ICRISAT, IRRI, ILRI, and ICRAF are the centers currently participating in the Global Futures project) DSSAT-based virtual cultivars have been developed for global wheat crop simulations (using several wheat cultivars adapted to major wheat growing environments) and are being currently validated. The IMPACT model linked to DSSAT and Economic Surplus model (DREAM) is also being validated for wheat and work on maize will continue during 2012. CIP A simulation of productivity impacts of climate change with alternative potato and sweet potato crop varieties has been conducted within the Global Futures Project, involving the use of the DSSAT crop modeling system for spatial global simulations. An essential first step was the calibration of modern varieties for DSSAT. Efforts have been made to collect and collate yield trial data available at CIP and to use this data for the calibration of the SUBSTOR potato module of DSSAT (3 cultivars were calibrated). CIP also worked on a report of promising new potato and sweet potato varieties and management technologies systems for eventual inclusion in an edited book, about agronomic characteristics to be improved and the expected contributions to ecosystem services, such as food production, water conservation, soil quality, of greenhouse gas emissions. A first draft of the report was submitted to IFPRI in April 2011. ICRAF Results from pilot REDD-, PES-, and carbon payment projects for smallholders were synthesized in several journal articles, and web stories. Two PES papers and three web stories were published from PRESA. Several reports, papers and policy briefs that consider the implications of 2010 climate agreements, legislation on national plans and policies for sustainable development in the tropical forest margins, as well as summarize experience with avoided deforestation, and REDD pilot studies for key policy processes, were also published. A paper was published, addressing the intersection of energy policy, society and environment in the Amazon, in a context of increasing environmental concerns because of climate change. Finally, a meta-analysis of rangeland management impacts on Soil Organic Carbon in China was also published. ICRISAT Under the framework of assessing the impact of climate change as part of the Global Futures project, IMPACT runs for groundnut were completed and runs for sorghum are in progress. Two popular and widely adopted sorghum and groundnut cultivars were calibrated for South Asia (India) and WCA. Drought, heat tolerance and yield potential traits were simulated under current climate and future climates. Experiments for model calibration, took place at Patancheru, Gulbarga and Jamnagar with four cultivars each of pigeonpea and groundnut. ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Output 4.3.2 Likely effects of specific adaptation and mitigation options, national policies (natural resource, trade, macroeconomic, international agreements) analyzed IITA Further progress has been done towards the assessment of cocoa and coffee based agricultural systems for carbon sequestration potential to mitigate risk of climate change and enhance food security. In Cameroon and Nigeria, surveys were conducted on cocoa systems to quantify the relationship between yield and major crop constraints, including shade tree sizes and densities (results will be published in 2012). A chapter was written in the Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture book edited by Wollenberg et al. and published by Earthscan on agriculture (and cocoa in particular) as a driver of deforestation. A report on climate change adaptation and mitigation in coffee and banana systems was written, followed up by a stakeholder workshop and the writing of a policy brief. Output 4.3.3 Differential impact on social groups (gender, livelihood category etc) of climate change adaptation and mitigation options identified, evaluated and communicated No results Output 4.3.4 Likely effects of special adaptation of specific adaptation and mitigation options and national policies (including for socially differential groups) communicate to key local, national and regional agencies and stakeholders ILRI A global review of livestock-related issues in global change has been almost completed, to be published as a PNAS special issue. Several papers are also in the pipeline in PNAS, related to this initiative. A Livestock and Global Change session has been included at the Planet under Pressure 2012 conference as a result of the research emerging from the Global Review. Worldfish Messages were prepared to be delivered during the Agricultural and Rural Development Day 2011 at COP17. Furthermore, Worldfish collaborated with FAO to put together a New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) session on climate change for Oceans Day 2011, at COP17, liaising with Réseau sur les Politiques de Pêche en Afrique de l'Ouest (REPAO). Moreover, a NEPAD combined side event, on African fisheries and climate change was organised with the Global Partnership for Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture (PaCFA), at COP17. In addition, a major Synthesis Report on ‘Green Economy in a lue World’, was launched together with UNEP and other partners in Manila, January 25th, 2012. Finally, a Small Island Developing States green economy report was submitted for the SIDS sub-regional preparatory meetings for Rio+20. ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Case Study 1: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)- 2011 Global Workshop and Global Model Intercomparison Startup Case type ƒ’ƒ…‹–›•–”‡‰–Š‡‹‰ǡ‘Ǧ”‡•‡ƒ”…Š’ƒ”–‡”•Š‹’• Brief description of the activity AgMIP is a major international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. It is a trans-disciplinary project focused on the comparisons of crop and economic models applicable initially to South-Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, which connects the climate science, crop modeling, and agricultural modeling communities with an emphasis on developing the information technology tools required for probabilistic projections of current and future climate impacts. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. To achieve these goals, AgMIP is establishing a robust and rigorous international research framework that connects climate, agriculture, economic and information technology communities. This is done through global and regional workshops, capacity building activities, and the establishment of AgMIP-funded research teams initially in Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia. Result of activity CCAFS supported and CCAFS theme leaders participated in the AgMIP Global Workshop, October 13-15, held in Texas, USA, which attracted over 100 participants from about 30 countries. Representatives of leading crop modeling, climate, and economics groups from around the world had the chance to meet and review a broad spectrum of research activities for climate scenarios, crop modeling, economics, and information technologies, as well as regional initiatives and crop-specific assessments. Highlights included advancements among Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and IT Teams; the launch of Cross Cutting AgMIP teams to address issues of uncertainty and aggregation; and an opportunity for Figure 1. AgMIP components and expected outcomes ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Monsanto to announce its support of AgMIP. Additional accomplishments included establishing a new plateau for AgMIP Protocols; steady progress within the Wheat, Maize, and Rice Pilot Teams; methods for providing in-situ climate information in regions where data are scarce; an initial framework for representative agricultural pathways; advancements within the global model intercomparison activity; and developments in application programming interfaces for the AgMIP crop experiment database. At this meeting plans were developed for the first phase of the global economic model intercomparison exercise. This first phase involved agreement on a single set of drivers to be used by all models, a process for providing model results in a standard framework and a time table leading up to a workshop in Kenya in January 2012 where initial results would be compared. Partners involved and their role Columbia University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – overall management of the project, co-lead the climate modeling component University of Florida – co-lead the crop modeling and IT components Oregon State University – co-lead the economics component, focusing on regional modeling intercomparison Wageningen UR , Alterra – co-lead the IT component IFPRI– co-lead the economics component, focusing on global modeling intercomparison US Department of Agriculture, Agriculture Research Service – overall project management Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) – co-lead the crop modeling component Models included in the global economic model intercomparison component, see table below Table 2.1: Participating Models Model Affiliation Location Contact Documentation Link General Equilibrium Models AIM NIES Japan Shinichiro Fujimori http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/infomation.htm CIM-Earth University of Chicago USA Joshua Elliott Alison Brizius http://www.cimearth.org/cim-earth/about/ ENVISAGE FAO Italy Dominique van der Mensbrugghe http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/.../Envisage7b.pdf EPPA MIT USA Elodie Blanc http://globalchange.mit.edu/igsm/eppa.html FARM USDA-ERS USA Ron Sands GTEM ABARES Australia Raymond Mi Edwina Heyhoe http://www.daff.gov.au/abares/models ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 LEITAP LEI - Wageningen University Netherlands Hans van Meijl Andrzej Tabeau Partial Equilibrium Models GCAM PNNL USA Page Kyle http://wiki.umd.edu/gcam/index.php?title=Main_Page GLOBIOM IIASA Austria Petr Havlik Hugo Valin http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/FOR/globiom.html IMPACT IFPRI USA Gerald Nelson Amanda Palazzo Sherman Robinson http://www.ifpri.org/book-751/ourwork/program/impact-model MAGPIE PIK Germany Hermann Lotze-Campen Christoph Schmitz http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/sustainable-solutions/groups/landuse-group Research on which the activity is based Models developed in partner institutions. Web address for further information 1. AGMIP website http://www.agmip.org/ Case Study 2: International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) Case type; Capacity strengthening/ research partnerships Brief description of the activity Abstract: “Climate change presents a major threat to sustainable food security. While the general trend of increasing temperatures is clear, major uncertainties remain in the distribution and magnitude of climate change outcomes, the location-specific consequences for agriculture, the possibilities for adapting to a changing climate, and the potential role for agriculture in reducing the amount of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere.” At a November 2011 conference in Beijing, organized the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), leading scientists from around the world gathered to present new research that helps answer these questions. Result of activity ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Leading international scientists and young researchers from the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) plus Indonesia and the United States reported results on the food security and climate change challenges facing their countries. This conference provided a forum for the participants to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. Based on their research, the participants identified two sets of priority actions to address the challenges from climate change (a) strengthening public sector agricultural research and (b) increasing the amount, appropriateness, and accessibility of spatial data. The recommendations were later presented at the side event “Climate Change and BRICS: Findings from the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security.”, during the 1ϳth Conference of Parties (COP 17), at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), hosted in Durban, South Africa. The conference participants urged the negotiators to establish a work program that includes the priorities (a) and (b). Partners involved and their role Organizers: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) , International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Co-sponsors: Adapting to Climate Change in China Project (ACCC), National Major Scientific Research Program of China, Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China Participants: Leading researchers from the BRICS countries, Indonesia, and the United States. Research on which the activity is based Accumulated and current research of partnered institutions and of various participants. Country reports based on country-specific results from IMPACT model augmented with national data and analysis. Web address for further information 1. Conference website- http://icccfs.ifpri.info/ 2. Conference information in the CAAS portal- http://www.caas.net.cn/caas/news/shownews.asp?Id=9054 3. “Fighting hunger in a changing climate”, IFPRI publication- http://www.ifpri.org/publication/fighting-hunger-changing-climate 4. Recommendations of CAAS-IFPRI conference in Beijing for UNFCCC negotiators, Video- http://www.ifpri.org/publication/climate-change-and-food-security http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KpnyVpf6qo&feature=youtu.be ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Case Study 3: Global Futures for Agriculture Virtual Crop Modeling Workshop, Kenya, 2011 Case type Capacity strengthening Brief description of the activity Global Futures for Agriculture project aims to improve the capacity of the CGIAR centers to evaluate and prioritize research investments, and to support the decision-making of international development partners and national policymakers. The effort is supported with major funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. CGIAR researchers and other scientists are developing an enhanced version of IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), a state-of-the-art economic model that projects the future production, consumption, and trade of key agricultural commodities, and can assess the effects of climate change, water availability and other major trends. The research focuses on regions most vulnerable to global changes in the next 30 to 50 years, with special attention on the rural poor and smallholder farmers. Global Futures project scientists work with breeders, plant physiologists, and agronomists to identify potentially promising technical traits and develop software (virtual) cultivars with increased productivity in specific environmental conditions (weather, soil quality/composition, limited resources, etc.) today or might occur with climate change. These virtual crops are then fed into IFPRI’s IMPACT model to determine the economic benefits. The results will reveal the extent to which new technologies can address food security and climate change challenges. Scientists associated with the Global Futures project s met in a Virtual Crop Modeling Workshop in Kenya in April 2011, where they had the chance to work together with plant breeders and crop modelers to develop the methodology of creating virtual cultivars. During this process, they discussed promising traits for higher productivity and climate change adaptation (e.g. drought and high temperature, etc.) towards a set of potential technologies for virtual crops. Result of activity Project scientists focused on the following 4 main activities: Reporting on Promising Technologies, Developing crop coefficients in consultation with the plant breeders, Collecting and disseminating of crop and country data in collaboration with the Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) experts at IFPRI, Engaging in IMPACT Model activities. Crop modeling experts discussed practical approaches to creating the virtual crops based on what the plant breeders presented. They worked on setting baselines for the model (identifying target sites, current practices etc.) and preparing a series of protocols. Three categories of technologies were identified – traits to increase yield in current climate conditions, for heat tolerance and for drought tolerance. ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Combinations of all the information identified above, including the baseline information, will allow the GF Fellows to simulate runs and calculate the rate of change based on the baseline and the future. List of protocols were decided to be written and distributed to the plant breeders for review. For each crop there will be a baseline variety, a variety with enhanced yield trait, a variety with enhanced heat tolerance, and a variety with enhanced drought tolerance (baseline, and three virtual crops). Partners involved and their role IRRI, ILRI, CIP, CIMMYT, ICRISAT, CIAT, ICRAF (technology identification) IFPRI (coordination, and IMPACT model capacity building) University of Florida and Washington State Univesity (crop modeling) Research on which the activity is based The analysis will improve upon previous research by incorporating: detailed location-specific data; climate, soil type, crop variety, and other critical variables; improved measurement of effects on human welfare; and the impact of potential agricultural investments on economic growth, incomes, and poverty alleviation. Web address for further information 1. Global Futures website http://globalfuturesproject.com/ Theme 4.3- Publications, 2011 Peer-Reviewed Articles  Clark, W.C.; Tomich, P.T.; van Noordwijk, M.; Guston, D.; Catacutan, D.; Dickson, N.M.; McNie, E.. Boundary work for sustainable development: Natural resource management at the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). National Academy of Sciences (2011) Available online: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/08/11/0900231108.full.pdf+html  Hoang MH; Do Trong H; Pham MT; Van Noordwijk M and Minang PA.. Benefit distribution across scales to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) in Vietnam. Journal of Land Use Policy (2012): P. 1-15.- Article in press  Jindal, R., et al., Social dimensions of procurement auctions for environmental service contracts: Evaluating trade-offs between cost-effectiveness and participation by the poor in rural Tanzania. Land Use Policy (2011), doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2011.11.008  John Kerr; Mamta Vardhan and Rohit Jindal. Pro-social behavior and incentives: Evidence from field experiments in rural Mexico and Tanzania. Ecological Economics 73 (2012): 220–227  Wang; SP, Wilkes, A; Zhang, ZC; Chang, XF; Lang, R; Wang, YF; Niu, HS, Effects of management ƒ† Žƒ† —•‡ …Šƒ‰‡ ‘ •‘‹Ž …ƒ”„‘ ‹ Š‹ƒǯ• ‰”ƒ••Žƒ†•, in Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 142 (2011) 329– 340, doi:10.1016/j.agee.2011.06.002 ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Book chapter IITA edited one chapter in: Wollenberg E, Nihart A, Tapio-Biström M-L, Grieg-Gran M, eds. 2011. ‘Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture.’ Routledge, London, 419 pp. Other Publications Reports Synthesis report ‘Green Economy in a lue World’, launched in Manila, :anuary 2ϱth, 2012. Full report is in press. Available online: http://www.unep.org/pdf/green_economy_blue.pdf Small Island Developing States green economy report submitted for SIDS sub-regional preparatory meetings for Rio+20, August 2011. Available online: http://www.sidsnet.org/provisional/docs/newsletter/SIDS_Unit_Newsletter-August_2011.pdf Working Papers Country level vulnerability studies in Eastern, Western, and Southern Africa were prepared for review. (IFPRI/ ASARECA- East Africa, CORAF- West Africa, and FANRPAN Southern Africa). Three monographs will appear in 2012. Adam, Myriam, Place, Frank, and Edmundo Barrios 2011. Potential contributions of agroforestry for enhancement of models within the Global Futures project. Working Paper, ICRAF, IFPRI and CCAFS, Nairobi, Kenya. Adam, Myriam and Frank Place. 2012. Agroforestry as integrated fertilization management practice in southern Africa, Working Paper, Global Futures, ICRAF, IFPRI and CCAFS, Nairobi, Kenya. Santos, Ione Vieira; Porro, Noemi Sakiara Miyasaka; Porro, Roberto 2011. Interventions to curb deforestation and stability in access to land: A comparative study between two land regulation modalities in the Transamazon region, Brazil. Roma: International Land Coalision Available online: http://americalatina.landcoalition.org/sites/default/files/ICRAF PARA_Brazil_web_14.03.11.pdf Policy Briefs Janudianto.; Mulyoutami, E.; Joshi, L.; Wardell, D.A.; van Noordwijk, M. 2011 Recognizing traditional tree tenure as part of conservation and REDD+ strategy Available online: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/PDFwebdocs/ASB_PB22.pdf Magnan Nicholas and Timothy S. Thomas . “Food Security and Climate Change to 20ϱ0: Cambodia”, Special Report 11, Policy Discussion Paper, Cambodia Development Resource Institute. Available online: http://www.cdri.org.kh/webdata/download/sr/fscc11e.pdf Meyfroidt, P.; van Noordwijk, M.; Minang, P.A.; Dewi, S.; Lambin, E.F. 2011 Drivers and consequences of tropical forest transitions: options to bypass land degradation? Available online: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/PDFwebdocs/ASB PB_25.pdf ANNUAL ACTIVITY REPORT UNDER THEME 4.3 Minang, P.A.; Bernard, F.; van Noordwijk, M.; Kahurani, E. 2011 Agroforestry in REDD+: Opportunities and Challenges. Available online: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/PDFwebdocs/ASB_PB26.pdf) Robiglio, V.; Minang, P.A.; Asare, R. 2011 On-farm timber production for emission reduction with sustainable benefits at the tropical forest margins. Available online: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/PDFwebdocs/ASB_PB23.pdf Santos-Martin, F.; Bertomeu, M.; van Noordwijk, M.; Navarro, R. 2011 Why smallholders plant native timber trees away from the forest margin : Lessons from Leyte, the Philippines. Available online: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/PDFwebdocs/ASB -PB24.pdf Tata, H.L.; Widayati, A.; Mulyoutami, E.; van Noordwijk, M. 2011 Co-existence of people and orangutan in Sumatra -Stabilising gradients for landscape multifunctionality. Available online: http://www.asb.cgiar.org/PDFwebdocs/PolicyBrief%2020.pdf Other Web posts Carbon payments for watershed management. Jun 23, 2011. Available online: http://presa.worldagroforestry.org/blog/2011/06/23/carbon-payments-for-watershed- management/ Carbon project brings new income – and risks – to Uganda farmers. May 9, 2011. Available online: http://presa.worldagroforestry.org/blog/2011/05/09/carbon-project-brings-new-income-and-risks- to-uganda-farmers/ Supporting communities for sustainable ecosystems in western Uganda. Mar 17, 2011. Available online: http://presa.worldagroforestry.org/blog/2011/03/17/supporting-communities-for- sustainable-ecosystems-in-western-uganda/ Conference Proceedings Country level reports on agricultural vulnerability to climate change in the BRICS countries plus Indonesia and the US. CAAS-IFPRI Food Security and Climate Change conference in Beijing, November 2011. Reports expected to be converted to papers for a special issue of a journal in 2012. Adam, Myriam, Barrios, Edmundo, and Frank Place. 2011. Effect of agroforestry on maize productivity in Eastern and Southern Africa: a yield gap analysis, Poster Presented at the World Congress on Conservation Agriculture, 26-29 September, Brisbane Australia. Kleinwechter, U. (2012), Global impacts of targeted interventions in food security crops – the case of potatoes in developing countries. Contributed paper submitted for presentation at the 28th International Conference of Agricultural Economists, to be held from August 18 to August 24, 2012, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. 1 CCAFS East Africa Program Annual Report 2011 February, 2012 Synthesis of 2011 Activities by Output Key outputs are summarized in relation to 2011 activit y plan. The main activities included research in collaboration with the global CCAFS themes, partner engagement, communication and capacity building. Some of the milestones will be completed in early 2012. Research: Lead the regional synthesis work and ensure the publication of CCAFS research in East Africa. Theme 1 Output 1.1.1 Development of farming systems and production technologies adapted to climate change conditions in time and space through design of tools for improving crops, livestock, and agronomic and natural resource management practices In collaboration w ith t heme 1, the program worked with several CGIAR centres in the region to build on the existing Africa Trial Sites project . The project was funded by AgCommons as one of the QuickWin projects , and d eveloped by CIAT, ICRISAT, CIMMYT and IITA. The number of crops was ‡š’ƒ†‡†ǡ‹…‘”’‘”ƒ–‹‰Ž‹˜‡•–‘…ƒ†ˆ‹•Š†ƒ–ƒǡ•–”‡‰–Š‡‹‰‹–•ǮƒƒŽ›–‹…ƒŽ…ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–‹‡•ǯƒ† broadening its geographical range. When completed, the trials sites project will include performance data and trial protocols in addition to the basic geographic characterisation of trial sites. Output 1.1.2 Building of regional and national capacities to produce and communicate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for progressive c limate change at the national level (e.g. through NAPAs) Together with COMESA, the program initiated a process of documenting the current status of drought and famine in the Horn of Africa . The activity will identify transformative actions on policies and best practices that enhance climate adaptation and mitigation to address current recurring hunger from frequent drought events. The study; Amwata et al, will include a technical report and a DVD documentary that can be shared at policy forums Output 1.1.3 New knowledge - synthesizing institutional arrangements, policies and mechanisms for improving the adaptive capacity of agricultural sector actors and those involved in managing the food system National policy priority setting workshops were held in Kenya a nd Ethiopia. (Linked to 4.3) Two out of four policy workshops were conducted. For logistical reasons, workshops for Tanzania and Uganda a have been deferred to 2012 . 2 Output 1.3.2 New information, knowledge, guidelines and germplasm are made available to farmers, breeders, local communities and scientists and promoted through knowledge sharing, peer reviewed articles, information sys tems and media Theme 1, in partnership with the program organized a crop breeding workshop, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The objective of the workshop was to identify potential improvement scenarios and begin to incorporate them into crop models, and to build a community that will support CCAFS research through the adoption of the developed breeding st rategies. The target crops included beans, sorghum, bananas and rice. A total of 40 participants representing the breeding and modelling communities from 16 countries attended the workshop. Several institutions were represented: six CGIAR Centers (AfricaRi ce, Bioversity, CIAT, ICRISAT, IITA, IRRI); The Global Crop Diversity Trust; 12 NARS partners (INERA, Burkina Faso; EIAR, Ethiopia; Ethiopian National Program; CSIR - Savanna Agricultural Research Institute, Ghana; Crops Research Institute, Ghana; Kenya Agr icultural Research Institute, Kenya; Rural Economy Institute, IER, Mali; National Research Institute - NRI, Mali; National Institute for Agronomique Research Of Niger, INRAN, Niger; Zambia Agriculture Research Institute; EMBRAPA, Brazil); Jimma University (Ethiopia); and two regional breeding centres (CARBAP, Cameroon; WACCI, Ghana). A detailed blog story is available at http://ccafs.c giar.org/blog/mitigating - change - climate - relations - breeders - and - modelers - africa - unite - climate - smart - crops Theme 2 In partnership with Theme 2, KARI and ICRISAT a project in Wote tested the design and communication of downscaled, probabilistic seasonal forecast. ICRISAT will continue investigating the delivery, evaluation and use of seasonal climate forecasts and forecast - based advisories in 2012. It is anticipated that ICRISAT will work closely with various partners (KARI - Katumani, Kenya Meteor ological Department, and University of Nairobi) to facilitate the implementation of the proposed research activities Output 2.1.5 Identify and evaluate differential impact of agricultural risk management strategies on different social groups, particularl y women and men, and communicate findings through technical and policy support activities Three case studies are being documented at CCAFS learning sites in Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia. These studies will document how to reduce vulnerability of smallhol der farmers to changing climate through promoting the integration and utilization of indigenous knowledge and scientific weather and climate forecasting for risk management, and will be completed in early 2012. The program is collaborating with Sokoine Uni versity of Agriculture (SUA) in Tanzania, NARL, Kawanda in Uganda. In Ethiopia, the program is collaborating with MARIL and ILRI scientis ts to examine social innovation and rangeland enclosure to adapt to a changing climate in Borana. Five out of the planned 8 small research projects have been commissioned through NARES and CGIAR partners at CCAFS benchmark sites as formulating a call was less feasible given the funding uncertainty that prevailed 3 Output 2.2.3 Platform and tools for sharing knowledge and fostering improved coordination among food crisis response, the market - based food delivery system, and agricultural research and development Through partnership with EAC and ICPAC, the program Š‡Ž†ƒ™‘”•Š‘’‘ǮŠƒ…‹‰Ž‹ƒ–‡- Related Information A ……‡••ˆ‘” ’”‘˜‡† ‘‘†›•–‡Žƒ‹‰ƒ†‘‘”†‹ƒ–‹‘‹ƒ•–ˆ”‹…ƒǯǤ The workshop provided an opportunity to foster critical links between extension services , agro - meteorology and food security communities in terms of planning interventions that address impacts from climate change and climate variability. The workshop proceeding will be available as a publication to engage with the non - research food security and agriculture extension communities on CCAFS research. Output 2.3.1 Improved climate in formation tools and products to support management of agricultural and food security risk In Lower Nyando, the program is partnering with VI agroforestry to develop participatory action research activities, investigating promising adaptation options aimed at enhancing resilience to climate variability/change and to promote food security through actions that build community capacity and strengthen community structures. The emphasis is on a long term presence of skilled and knowledgeable personnel within the local communities. A total of 1,100, people drawn from 220 households participated in this initiative in 2012. Research partners will also capture, learn from and build on local knowledge and practice that has potential to be scaled up and transferred bey ond the CCAFS benchmark locations. Under the Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship (IGERT), fellows were tasked with developing an inventory and critically assessing existing and potential climate change adaptation and local mitigation ( Ȍƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•ƒ‘‰’ƒ•–‘”ƒŽ‹•–ƒ†ƒ‰”‘Ǧ’ƒ•–‘”ƒŽ‹•– communities in the Borana zone of southern Ethiopia. The report from this exercise highlights potential conflicts and complementarities that may be associated with the implementation of †‡šǦ„ƒ•‡†‹vestock Insurance (IBLI) in the region, and is scheduled to be published as a CCAFS working paper. Theme 3 Working with Theme 3, the program commissioned a study on the status and trends of agricultural adaptation and mitigation project inventory for Eastern Africa. A report has been prepared by Camco Advisory Services (K) Ltd highlighting the current status of projects, policies and other eff orts at the national level in East Africa. The report is under review and will be combined with information from two other policy mapping related studies to create a database of climate change, agriculture and food security actors and policies East Africa. Output 3.3.1 Analysis of mitigation biophysical and socioeconomic feasibility for different agricultural practices and regions, and impacts on emissions, livelihoods and food security In consultation with Theme3, ICRAF and CIFOR are conduct ing a study on GHG fluxes from different agroforestry systems at CCAFS sites in lower and middle Nyando, including measurement and modelling results, and an assessment of overall management GHG balances. The study focused on selected farms utilizing different land use p ractices, ranging from conventional cropping to agroforestry systems (improved fallow; intercropping). Modelling will be done using statistical approaches and the mechanistic DNDC model. This will allow for comparison with a CCAFS commissioned modelling ex ercise on N 2O fluxes based on national data. 4 In a second activity, Applied GeoSolutions, LLC (AG, LLC) undertook a baseline study on assessing agricultural emissions. The expected outcomes of the initiative will include: refined methodologies for mapping land cover in support of crop modelling of soil carbon, greenhouse gas emissions and crop yields; acquisition of satellite data for 8 - 10 benchmark sites in East and West Africa; remote sensing based maps of land cover and cropping systems for 4 - 5 benchmark sites; and DNDC modelling of GHG emissions and crop yields under current climate conditions and future climate c hange scenarios. Theme 4.1 Output 4.1.1 For each region, coherent and plausible futures scenarios to 2030 and looking out to 2050 that examine potential development outcomes under a changing climate and assumptions of differing pathways of economic deve lopment; developed for the first time in a participative manner with a diverse team of regional stakeholders Working with Theme 4.1 and Institute of Resource Assessment ( IRA ), University of Dar es Salaam, we organised a workshop on Dz‹‹‰‘™Ž‡†‰‡™‹–Š…–‹‘–Š”‘—‰Š‡‰‹‘ƒŽ…‡ƒ”‹‘—‹Ž†‹‰dz in Tanzania. This was a follow - up to previous workshops, specifi cally to develop previous scenario storylines in terms of their ability to engage and communicate to key audiences, together with selected regional media experts ( e.g. PANOS) and to link the scenarios with global and regional socio - economic, agricultural and environmental change models to begin to create quantitative outputs for the scenarios that will provide insights into the consequences of each scenario. After further consultations, the program contracted a senior consultant to undertake an East Africa Scenarios Quantification exercise. The regional scenarios analyses is expected to provide a suitable framework for raising awareness of key regional drivers and concerns, considering the viability of potential adaptation options, and identifying the trade - offs and synergies of different options for climate change, agriculture and food security goals (Katindis work) . There are ongoing discussions to work more closely with USAID and to present the preliminary results at a regional workshop in April of 2012 Output 4.1.5 Mainstreaming adaptation strategies into national policies, agricultural development plans, and key regional an d global processes related to agriculture and rural development, food security and climate change A regional learning partnership was convened to build the capacity of key organizations working on climate change, agriculture and food security to co - generate knowledge and drive the science to policy dialogue in the region. A learning platform web interface – mock - up was designed to aggregate existing climate information sources in order to progress towards an integrated learning and sharing platfor m, that allows effective dissemination of research and fosters positive collaborations and knowledge exchanges, At the same time, the program is providing input to the Thematic Working Group 3 on National Adaptation Plan (NAP) under the Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources in Kenya. The working group is reviewing key national and sectoral strategies, programmes, and policies that will i nform National Climate Change Response Strategy. 5 Theme 4.2 Outcome 4.2.1 Improved frameworks, databases and methods for planning responses to climate change used by national agencies in at least 20 countries and by at least 10 key international and regional agencies Working with local partners in Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia, the program compiled a comprehensive household and village baseline data set for five learning sites. The baseline datasets will be used to benchmark the impact of CCAFS long - term research in East Africa. In addition, organizational baseline surveys are on - going in these sites. The household b aseline reports have been completed and available on the CCAFS website. http://ccafs.c giar.org/resources/baseline - surveys Theme 4.3 Output 4.3.1 Tools developed and climate change impacts assessed at global and regional levels on agricultural systems (producers, consumers, natural resources), national/regional economies, and international transactions The process of reviewing country papers on agricultural vulnerability to climate change in East Africa with specifi c focus on the 10 ASARECA countries was completed. The papers which are developed through Theme 4.2 have a location/country specific focus on the direct impacts on crops and livestock productivity domestically; indirect impacts on food prices, income from agricultural production at farm and country level and on reduced far m labor due to escalation of disease like malaria. A study mapping policies, institutions and actors related to climate change adaptation, food security, food systems and agricultural development in East Africa was initiated in 2011. The objective is to explore, map and assess the adequacy of current climate change - related policies of four countries: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia. An expert workshop will be convened in the first quarter of 2012 to review the findings and recommend strategic actors and institutions as well as policy entry points for climate change, agriculture and food security in the region. Partner Engagement: Design and oversee a strategy for regional as well as Africa-wide engagement and the management of impact pathways In order to develop strategic partnership for CCAFS research at local, national and regional scales, many scoping missions we undertaken to meet with potential science and policy organizations and to introduce as well as discuss areas for research and collabo ration. The specifi c activities are outlined below: Regional engagement For regional engagements, the program initiated visits to the intergovernmental Climate Predictions and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the East Africa Farmers Federation (EAFF), the Sou thern Africa Confederation of Agricultural Unions (SACAU), Food Policy and Research Network (FANRPAN), Africa Climate Policy Centre (ACPC), East Africa Commission (EAC) and Common Market for East and Southern Africa (COMESA) to establish working relationsh ips within the region. 6 In partnership with EAFF and SACAU, the program facilitated farmers and their union representatives in the region to arrive at a joint position regarding agriculture and climate change in the UNFCCC negotiations. These positions are now serving as inputs to the submissions on an agriculture work program due in early 2012. To further expand partnerships , a regional strategy for research, engagement and communication of CCAFS research is being developed and will be completed in 2012. Further presentation of the strategy to the management team and independent scientific panel will be done after inputs from regional partners. A database of key regional partners has been compiled and this will be used regularly to update CCAFS global engagement. During COP17 in Durban , the program engaged with a number of stakeholders. This included holding meeting s with: Kenyan delegation to COP17 to introduce CCAFS and its work to Kenyan negotiators . The meeting also provided a platform for representatives of various organizations in Kenya such as government ministries and departments to share their goals and priorities with regard to climate change, agriculture and food security. African farmer org anizations to update the farmers on the status of the negotiations and expected outcome of COP 17 for African farmers and to deliberate on how to collaborate in 2012. Representatives from farmer organizations in Southern Africa, East Africa and West Africa participated. Ethiopian delegation, with representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture, Addis Ababa University, World Food Program, Climate Change Forum Ethiopia and Environmental Protection Agency among others. The program consulted with the E AFF and co - hosted a two - day Farmer Consultation Workshop on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. The meeting served to consult farmers and farmer union representatives on four them atic areas i) awareness of the linkage between c lima te change and a griculture , ii) farmer participation in research priority s etting , iii ) scaling up knowledge generation and d issemination , and iv) enhancing resiliency and c apacity . Workshop participants ‹…Ž—†‡†ˆƒ”‡”•ǯƒ†’”‘†—…‡”•ǯ‘”‰ƒ‹œƒ–‹‘•ˆ”‘–Š‹‘’‹ƒǡ‡›ƒǡ Tanzania and Uganda. The meeting was undertaken as part of regional learning partnership. We expect in 2012 to work more closely with EAFF to build an action plan for the 4 areas of collaboration . Working with Addis Ababa University and University of Bay ”‡—–Šǯ•International Graduate S chool for African S tudies , the program co - hosted the S econd International Workshop on Inter - regional Learning and Technology Transfer as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change in East African Drylands dzǤŠ‡™‘”•Š‘’™ƒ•ƒˆollow - up to the first workshop held in Nairobi in March . The workshop focused on clarif ying the guiding concepts of adaptation, social learning and technology transfer, the role of local knowledge for the building of adaptive capacities, the translation o f knowledge into practice and methodological questions and identification of a future research agenda. A technical team was formed to develop a research proposal that combines social learning processes in climate change adaptation in East Africa with meta - research on how to support and build African scientific capacities in adaptation research through mutual intra - regional learning processes. CCAFS will help build knowledge networks for adaptation learning , leveraging on on - going work with CAREs Adaptive Le arning Initiative. 7 National engagement W e held 2 partner national level consultative meetings in Uganda and Ethiopia. At these meetings, we convened key stakeholders in climate science research in Uganda and Ethiopia. They held discussions on researchable issues and opportunities/approaches for pilot activities at CCAFS sites. In order to promote the policy dialogue, the program held several national consultative meetings with key decision makers in Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda: Minis try of Agriculture and Meteorological Department in Kenya; Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives, Meteorological Agency, Director of ˜‹”‘‡–ȋ‹…‡”‡•‹†‡–ǯ•‘ˆˆ‹…‡Ȍǡ‘‘‹‡‹˜‡”•‹–›ƒ† •–‹–—–‡‘ˆ‡•‘—”…‡• Assessment (Univers ity of Dare salaam) in Tanzania; Climate Change Forum, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), CARE, MARIL, and Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) in Ethiopia; and Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) in Uganda . Communication: Develop dissemination outputs (website, rural media bulletins and policy briefs) from partner engagement work on climate change, agriculture and food security In partnership with the Ministry of Agriculture, Climate Change Forum – Ethiopia (CCF – E), Ethiopian Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and USAID, and the the program organised a ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ…‘ˆ‡”‡…‡–‹–Ž‡†ǡDzŽ‹ƒ–‡…Šƒ‰‡˜—Ž‡”ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ƒ†”‹•ƒ••‡••ent of agriculture and food security in Ethiopia: Which way forward?" This event brought together about 150 participants from Regional and Federal governments, experts from research institutions and universities, and practitioners from civil society organi zations and the private sector came together for expert presentations and plenary discussions on the impacts that climate change will have on agriculture and food security in the country. Twelve papers which form part of the proceedings are undergoing revi ew and will be published as a volume. A key outcome was that the Ministry of Agriculture has now commissioned an assessment of five vulnerable regions in Ethiopia to inform investments and a policy approach that will ensure food security . Blog story http://ccafs.c giar.org/blog/raising - awareness - climate - change - and - food - security - ethiopia In Kenya, the the program in partnership with the Tegemeo Institute hosted the National Level Policy Research Priority Setting Workshop . The o bjective of the workshop was to share policy status and options for climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture in Kenya , i dentify related research needs and p riorities , share CCAFS research , and develop action plans. Thirty participants attended the workshop from government ministries, international research institutions, and civil society organizations. To communicate risks in dry land agriculture, the program commissioned a project on enhancing learning and dialogue in communities to communicate climate related risks in Eastern Kenya through the use of local language radio progra ms . This is a partnership with Mbaitu FM and the Kenya National Federation of Agricultural Producers (KEN FAP), The Ministry and Agriculture and ‡›ƒ‰”‹…—Ž–—”ƒŽ‡•‡ƒ”…Š •–‹–—–‡ǤŠ‡‰‘ƒŽ‘ˆ–Š‹•‹‹–‹ƒ–‹˜‡‹•–‘•–”‡‰–Š‡ˆƒ”‡”•ǯ”‡•’‘•‡ to climate change and provide insights and guidance on how to address adaptation, mit igation and risk management to provide food security in Makueni and Machakos districts in Eastern Kenya. The program participated in a number of climate change exhibitions in 2011: 8 Africa Climate Change Resilience Alliance (ACCRA) Knowledge Fair Exhibit ion. There is need for collaboration between institutions working on development projects and those whose focus is on climate change adaptation and mitigation Kenyas ǯ Innovative Response to Climate Change exhibition organized by the Ministry of Environmen t and Mineral Resources in partnership with the Government of Japan, UNDP and DANIDA. The aim of the exhibition was to create awareness in all sectors and at all levels of society on adaptation initiatives and technologies in Kenya. Innovative climate chan ge technologies and opportunities for enhanced partnerships towards a climate change resilient Kenya were presented. First Annual Conference on Climate Change and Development for Africa (CCDA - 1). The objective of the CCDA - 1 was to establish a forum for dia logue, enhance awareness raising, mobilize effective commitment and actions by bringing together policy makers, academicians and practicing stakeholders with the aim of effectively mainstreaming climate change concerns into development policies, strategies , programmes and practices in Africa. Capacity development: Provide support to capacity development through a regional call for projects and national policy dialogue processes To explore opportunities for capacity development, CCAFS initiated dis cussions with Makerere University, University of Dar es Salaam (Institute of Resource Assessment), with strong START links, Sokoine University, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology and Moi University to examine possible resea rch areas to address climate related risks in the region. We are also providing inputs to the Thematic Working Group 3 on the Kenya NAP process, which is undertaking review of key Government national and sectoral strategies, program s , policies that feed into the National Climate Change Response Strategy. One individual gender fellowship was awarded to Dr. Annunciate Nakiganda from the National Livestock Resource Research Institute (NaLIRRI) in Uganda for her project, ‘ Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity of M en and Women Livestock Farmers to the Effects of Climate Change in ‰ƒ†ƒǤǯ The project seeks to understand how men and women livestock farmers at CCAFS research site in Rakai perceive concepts of climate change and to determine how climate change affects crop - livestock production by women and men farmers. Other indivi dual fellowships and nomination s support ed NARES scientists and other non - research partners to attend training courses on: - Gender and Climate Change, Rome, Italy. Statistics in Applied Climatology (e - SIAC), online training. Statistics in Applied Climatology Workshop, Egerton, Kenya IC CCAD Course and Conference on Community based Adaptation to Climate Change, Bangladesh Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) G lobal Workshop, San Antonio, US. Farmer Seasonal Forecast Workshop, Wote, Kenya U sing Climate Scenarios and Analogues for Designing Adaptation Strategies , Kathmandu, Nepal 9 Case Study 1: Improving Regional Climate Information and Food System Coordination Case type: Regional engagement Brief description of the activity Š‡ƒ…–‹˜‹–›…‘–”‹„—–‡†–‘Š‡‡ʹǯ•‘„Œ‡…–‹˜‡ǣ–‘…‘–”‹„—–‡–‘‹’”‘˜‡†ƒƒ‰‡‡–‘ˆ–Š‡ impacts of climate fluctuations on the food system. The aim is to create a platform and tools for sharing knowledge and fostering improved coordination among food crisis response, the market - based food delivery system, and agricultural research and development. To accomplish this objective, the CCAFS East Africa Regional program co - hosted a two - day conference of stakeholders in agro - meteorology, agricultural research and extension, and food security early warning systems from across the region. The workshop took place 25 th – 26 th October 2011 in Arusha, Tanzania at the Mount Meru Hotel. The objective of the meeting was to consult key stakeholders from the region on regional agricultural and food security contingency planning processes, current and potential use of climate - related information, and means of improving planning and coordination in East Af rica. Co - hosts of the event were two organizations involved in the Regional Learning Partnership: the East African Community (EAC) Secretariat and the IGAD Climate Predication and Application Centre (ICPAC). The regional East Africa program launched the Regional Learning Partnership (RLP) in 2011. The purpose of the RLP platform is to build capacity for knowledge co - generation and sharing to create synergy among partner work programs across institutions working on climate change issues in Eastern and Southe rn Africa. Si xteen institutions are actively involved in the partnership including COMESA, EAC, SACAU, EAFF and ASARECA. This conference is part of the RLP initiatives among others. 10 Result of activity A total of 45 experts in agro - meteorology, agricultural research and extension, and food security early warning systems from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi gathered to discuss three key areas: Agricultural Research and Extension Needs and Priorities; Agro - Meteorology Products and Services for Enhancing Food Security in East Africa; and Food Security and Early Warning Systems in East Africa. The discussions highlighted possible areas of future CCAFS East Africa regional research and engagement and building connections between s takeholders that had not interacted previously. A consultant is currently engaged in synthesizing the outputs through a continued stakeholder engagements process. Partners involved and their role The conference was co - hosted by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the East African Community (EAC) Secretariat. These regional institutions assisted in identifying appropriate participants, formulating the agenda, and selecting speakers. The EAC Secretariat also assisted in the identi fication of relevant participants from the Republic of Burundi and Republic of Rwanda who are EAC Partners States but are not yet included as part of the CCAFS East Africa focus countries. Going forward, these institutes will work more closely with CCAFS t o coordinate the development of climate services for agricultural application and as policy hubs for engaging scientists and policy makers in the region Research on which the activity is based Stakeholder consultation on regional agricultural and food secu rity contingency planning processes, current and potential use of climate - related information, and strategy for improving planning and coordination in East Africa. Web address for further information N /A 11 Case Study 2: Raising Awareness of Climate Change and Food Security in Ethiopia Case type: Communication Brief description of the activity In July 2011, the CCAFS East Africa regional program co - sponsored a national awareness raising conference at the Ghion Hotel in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia t ‹–Ž‡†DzŽ‹ƒ–‡Šƒ‰‡—Ž‡”ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ƒ† ‹•••‡••‡–‘ˆ‰”‹…—Ž–—”‡ƒ† ‘‘†‡…—”‹–›‹–Š‹‘’‹ƒǣŠ‹…Šƒ› ‘”™ƒ”†ǫdzŠ‡…‘- hosts of the event were the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Climate Change Forum – Ethiopia (CCF - E), and the United St ates Agency for International Development (USAID). More than 150 decision makers from Regional and Federal governments, experts from research institutions and universities, and practitioners from civil society organizations and the private sector particip ated. Expert presentations and plenary discussions focused on the expected impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security in Ethiopia. Journalists from local television and newspaper outlets were also in attendance to cover the event and interv iew key attendees. Result of activity Awareness of the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security was raised among the participants. Thirteen papers were commissioned for presentation at the conference, and twelve of these will be published in a collected volume in early 2012. The Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture expressed interest in conducting further vulnerability studies in select regions of the country in conjunction with the Climate Change Forum – Ethiopia (NGO). Dis cussions are underway for CCAFS to support these more in - depth studies, and to incorporate their findings into the policy planning process in Ethiopia. Partners involved and their role The conference was co - hosted by the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Cl imate Change Forum – Ethiopia (CCF - E), and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). CCF - E provided logistical support by sending invitation letters, arranging participant travel, liaising with the presenters, and booking the venue. T he Ministry of Agriculture assisted by providing 12 strategic direction and helping identify invitees. USAID contributed funding to help bring additional participants from outside of Addis Ababa. Research on which the activity is based Communication strategy for the regional East Africa program Web address for further information http://ccafs.c giar.org/blog/raising - awareness - climate - change - and - food - security - ethiopia Publications; East Africa Publication of CCAFS work from the region has not commenced yet. In 2012, additional effort will be directed to leading the write up and publication of synthesis work, case studies and policy briefs. During this period, most of the data from work commissioned in 2011 will be available for analyses and syntheses. Nyberg, G., Bargués Tobella, A., Kinyangi, J., and Ilstedt, U.2011: Patterns of water infiltration and soil degradation over a 120 - yr chronosequence from forest to agriculture in western Kenya, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 6993 - 7015, doi:10.5194/hessd - 8 - 69 9 3 B.N . Moebius - Clune, H.M. van Es, O.J. Idowu, R.R. Schindelbeck, J.M. Kimetu, S. Ngoze, J. Lehmann, J.M. Kinyangi . 2011. Long - term soil quali ty degradation along a cultivation chronosequence in western Kenya. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment , 141 ; Issues 1 –2, Pages 86 - 99 Solomon, D., J. Lehmann, K. Knoth de Zarruk, J. Dathe, J. Kinyangi , B. Liang and S. Machado. 2011. Speciation and long - and short - term molecular - level dynamics of soil organic sulfur studied by X - ray absorption near - edge structure spectroscopy. : Journal of. Environ. Qual . 40:704 - ., doi: 10.2134/jeq2010.0061 Sonja Verme ulen, Robert Zougmoré, Eva Wollenberg, Philip Thornton, Gerald Nelson, Patricia Kristjanson, James Kinyangi , Andrew Jarvis, James Hansen, Andrew Challinor, Bruce Campbell, Pramod Aggarwal. 2011. Climate change, agriculture and food security: a global partn ership to link research and action for low - income agricultural producers and consumers. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 4; Pages 1 - 6 1 Annual report 2011, West Africa region 1.3 ACTIVITY SUMMARY BY OUTPUT Output 1.1.1. Development of farming systems and production technologies adapted to climate change conditions in time and space through design of tools for improving crops, livestock, and agronomic and natural resource management practices 1.1.1.1. Inventory of Multi-site agricultural trial database to contribute developing a platform for multi- location trials of technologies and genotypes for G x E interaction analysis and the calibration and evaluation of crop models Three projects signed with NARS (SARI-Ghana, IER-Mali and INERA-Burkina) contributed to establishing a publicly and widely available multi-site agricultural trial database for climate change analysis. This concerns a total of about 200 trials covering areas related to agronomy/soil sciences, weed sciences, entomology, evaluation of varietal performances, farmer field school. This broad database and online repository of multi-site trial on the performance of agricultural technologies will then form the basis for improving models of agricultural production under current and future conditions, and for evaluating the efficacy of tested materials for adaptation. Deliverables: Three reports describing agricultural databases from countries are available. Output 1.1.2. Building of regional and national capacities to produce and communicate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies for progressive climate change at the national level (e.g. through NAPAs) 1.1.2.1. Capacity development of stakeholders from West Africa on the use and application of the analogue tool Two experts benefited from training in Nepal (workshop “Using Climate Scenarios and Analogues for designing adaptation strategies in Agriculture”). The two experts have also trained 32 people including representatives from NARS, from National Met offices and NGOs. Output 1.2.1. Understanding and evaluating the response of different varieties/crops to climate change in time and space, and generating comprehensive strategies for crop improvement through a combination of modelling, expert consultation and stakeholder dialogue 1.2.1.1. Breeding strategies for future climate stresses Eight West African breeders and modellers representing regional breeding institutions (NARS, WACCI) have engaged with CCAFS to identify potential improvement scenarios in order to cope with future climate stresses. Deliverables: a research framework and operational plan for CCAFS to support breeders in the design of strategies has been developed during a workshop held in Ethiopia. 1.2.1.2. Collation of crop yields in five West African countries for crop model calibration and validation Long term yield data (since 1985) of major crops in West Africa (sorghum, millet, rice, maize, cowpea, peanut͙) have been collated and structured for each of the following countries: Senegal, Niger, Mali, Ghana and Burkina Faso. Crop modeling (validation or simulation) is an effective tool to predict and inform about climate change impact but also to develop options and strategies to mitigate its effects. The lack or inaccessibility of long-term series of data (crops, soils, weather͙) is however of major constraint, particularly in West Africa. 2 Deliverables: A report on the sources, process, approval/ownership and conditions of use of the yield data as well as a copy of the acquired data. Output 1.3.2.: New information, knowledge, guidelines and germplasm are made available to farmers, breeders, local communities and scientists and promoted through networking for knowledge sharing, peer-reviewed articles, information systems and media 1.3.2.1. Documenting farmers’ traditional Ŭnowledge on climate change adaptation and mechanisms for networking among innovative farmers. An inventory of 60 local and traditional knowledge of adaptation strategies at the farm level and of 125 innovative farmers through surveys in five West African countries has been undertaken in 2011. The aim is to promote and disseminate existing smart climate change adaptation and mitigation options. In addition to compiling, managing and sharing standardized multi-site trial data on the performance of agricultural technologies, it appears also of great importance to identify farmers and communities that have developed significant and uncommon successful innovations/organisations in relation to natural resource management, to improve their livelihoods through crop and livestock production and agroforestry in particular. This concerns farmers that have adopted new behaviours and practices, been able to innovate in the use of either traditional knowledge or introduced technologies (through action research, extension work, trainings, etc.) in order to adapt to or mitigate adverse effects of biotic and abiotic constraints (land degradation, climate variability, soil erosion, poverty, lack of knowledge, poor application of recommended practices, etc.). Identifying these ‘innovative’ farmers and linking them through a network of farmers could be an asset for sharing knowledge (both from farmers and from research) and for fast dissemination and adoption of practices and technologies across different regions within West Africa to increase adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities in the face of climate change and variability. This is also done through analysing/identifying the most appropriated communication ways/supports that should be used to channel and spread innovative information among the farmers ‘network and related communities. Deliverables: A synthesis report describing about 60 local innovative options for adaptation and mitigation to climate change with illustrative photographs, and defining mechanisms for networking among 125 selected innovative farmers is available for wide dissemination among potential users of this inventory. 1.3.2.2. Participatory M&E to strengthen the adaptive capacity to climate change of farmers and institutions in West African countries: Case study in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali and Niger Country PAR implementation teams’ members in each benchmark site have been trained by IUCN on the use of an M&E toolkit (an IDRC-funded project) comprising tools for the planning and tools for the monitoring and evaluation of the adaptive capacity of communities. These tools help to create awareness about the way stakeholders organize themselves to achieve adaptive behaviour, identify individuals, organizations and/or institutions that can help improve adaptive performance. Through assisting actors in identifying opportunities and in specifying proposals to improve adaptive decision making and processes, the toolkit will allow effective application of PAR principles and an iteration of learning circle among all stakeholders during 2012 ground activities in each benchmark site. Indeed, people and organizations (CBOs, NGOs and governmental organisations) adapt better to changing conditions if they are able to anticipate future changes, monitor current changes, as well as observe and assess the effects of efforts to improve their situation. In other words, they can better adapt if they can monitor and evaluate their own adaptation practices and/or strategies, either formally or informally. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is therefore a practice that can greatly improve learning from experience. It can be used through adaptive management (learning by doing) to improve adaptation-related decision-making processes and thus in turn, enhance the adaptive capacity of people and organisations to climate change and variability. This is a participatory monitoring that aims to develop a solid understanding about local practices, cultures and strategies against climate change in order to ground local adaptation on a scientific basis. 3 Deliverables: It is expected from this activity: Four country reports synthesizing the results of the toolkit implementation and recommendations, with particular focus to the documentation of the capacity strengthening of people and institutions involved in each site. One special report on identified policy decision from the process across the various levels and providing answer to the four questions above; Two policy briefs and one scientific article based on the results obtained. Output 1.1.4. Testing of participatory methods that are sensitive to gender, livelihoods categories and other social differentiators, to apply globally 1.1.4.1. Production of video testimonials on gender-specific farmer adaptation and mitigation strategies in Ghana and Mali One 13 mn documentary film has been produced to capturing gender perspective in climate change, agriculture and food security in a community of the Lawra-Jirapa site in Ghana. The purpose of the documentary is to receive voices from resource poor groups and understand their perceptions of climate change and how it impacts on their daily lives; this will also form part of the baseline and site characterization and testimony that can be used for the purposes of future comparisons. One similar document is underway in Mali to capture women perspectives on climate change, agriculture and food security through comparing two periods of agricultural production: dry season and rainy season. Output 2.1.3. Development and demonstration of the feasibility, acceptability and impacts of innovative risk management strategies and actions for rural communities 2.1.3.1. Diagnosing opportunities and challenges for implementing index-based insurance on the CCAFS benchmark site of Northern Ghana This exploratory project executed by the University of Kumasi and SARI (Ghana), aimed to carry out the necessary baseline studies towards the introduction of a weather-based insurance scheme to the Lawra (Upper West) farming community. The work consisted in a diagnostic study that includes: identifying key players in the ground (private, government, NGOs, Farmers organizations͙), understanding the nature of climate-related risks, and strategies and processes to deal with risk; analysing needs, constraints, and priority interventions; developing a consensus implementation plan and research design; and designing and preparing for ex-post impact evaluation. This has been done in close consideration of the German IBI- project “Innovative Insurance Products for the Adaptation to Climate Change” (IIPACC)” currently on-going in the area. The project is spearheaded and implemented by the National Insurance Commission (NIC) and GIZ-IIPACC, and in close collaboration with the Ghana Insurers Association (GIA). Deliverables: a final report highlights requirement and information on the introduction and operationalization of a weather Index-based Crop Insurance Scheme in Lawra-Jirapa, Ghana. Output 2.2.3. Platform and tools for sharing knowledge and fostering improved coordination among food crisis response, the market-based food delivery system, and agricultural research and development 2.2.3.1. Regional food system stakeholder consultation to develop a collaborative strategy for intervention and coordination This study reviewed relevant background documents and materials to better understand the institutional experience, interests and perspectives of the food system stakeholders; and to introduce regional stakeholders to CCAFS-Theme-2 interests, and potential contributions related to food security management in the face of climate fluctuations. The aim is to build, through a multiple stakeholder perspective, a greater understanding of the constraints and barriers to the effective incorporation of advanced climate information into policy and practice for food system decision-making in the face of climate fluctuations at 4 the national and regional level (with explicit focus on the food system). The final report constitutes a strategy document for Theme 2 outlining gaps and opportunities, as well as identifying key stakeholders for future collaboration. This activity will be pursued in early 2012 with a workshop that brings together key stakeholders for a discussion based upon findings of the review/bilateral discussions and provides recommendations for CCAFS Theme 2. Deliverables: a report on strategy for Theme 2, outlining gaps and opportunities, as well as identifying key stakeholders for future collaboration. Output 2.3.1.: Improved climate information tools and products to support management of agricultural and food security risks 2.3.1.1. Harmonizing methodologies for seasonal forecasting of rainy season characteristics in West Africa Different approaches to seasonal prediction of the rainy season characteristics were reviewed by experts from the sub-region (Agrhymet, national met agencies), including forecast factors (cumulative rainfall, average water flows), the predictors used (ocean surface temperatures, SST) and the methodological constraints re these forecasts. The introduction of new forecast needs (onset and end of the season, duration of dry spells, maximal flow maxima, starting flow, low flow start) and the use of other forecast factors (wind in altitude, simulated by global models of atmospheric circulation) was also discussed in the perspective to reflect the pressing demands of different users of seasonal forecasts. Working sessions on the Climate Predictability Tool software developed by IRI, were used to assess the feasibility of seasonal forecast of the onset and end of the season based on SST and aloft winds. The southern wind at 850 Hpa has been identified as particularly relevant for seasonal forecasting of the onset of the rainy season in West Africa, therefore recommending more research investigation. Deliverables: a report discussing methodologies for seasonal forecasting of rainy season characteristics in West Africa 2.3.1.2. Development and evaluation of methodology for combining station observations and remote sensing into gridded daily historic meteorological data sets for use in agricultural and biological threat forecasting and other climate information service interventions 1. Rainfall data quality control training workshop through which: (1) a summary on the climatological data (precipitation and temperature) status in 17 countries was completed, (2) 17 climatologists from national meteorological services have been trained on relevant rainfall data quality control methods and on the merged database initiative 2. Calibration of daily satellite rainfall estimation algorithm: this consisted in a training workshop through which (1) a relevant daily satellite rainfall estimation algorithm was discussed and adopted for West Africa region; (2) Eight experts from AGRHYMET, ACMAD and national meteorological agencies have been trained on satellite rainfall estimation algorithm calibration and use. Deliverables: workshop report 2.3.1.3. Communicating the probabilistic seasonal forecast for a better farming management and decisions at Kaffrine CCAFS benchmark site, Senegal, West Africa 31 farmers and their organisations including 12 women farmers, NGOs (World Vision), NARS and Universities (ISRA-UCAD), extension services (ANCAR, SDDR), local administration, Journalists, benefited from a communication of a downscaled, probabilistic seasonal forecast provided through ANAMS. The aim was to know how farmers use currently climate information, what kind of forecast they used, and to present and communicate them example of probabilistic seasonal forecasting. A first workshop was designed to expose farmers on probabilistic seasonal forecasting and also to establish dialogue and trust between farmers’ organizations and experts working on climate forecasting and farming in general. An emphasis was made to listening the farmers first and better understands their decision system. This was a 5 first step toward helping small-scale farmers to make appropriate management decisions for improved agricultural based on probabilistic seasonal climate forecast. The second workshop was to deliver the actual seasonal forecast and to ensure they can interpret it. The follow-up work consisted in evaluating the impact of the seasonal forecast products and communication process on farmers’ management decision and; in eliciting farmers’ perceptions of the seasonal forecast products and communication process, and their management responses to the information. Deliverables: 1-Report on a common methodology for seasonal forecasting of the rainy season’s characteristics in West Africa; 2-Report on the pilot testing of the design and communication of downscaled, probabilistic seasonal forecasts; and evaluating their impact on farmers’ management and livelihood outcomes in Senegal; 2.3.1.4. Exploring possibilities for up-scaling Mali Agro-meteorological advisory mechanism in the Sahel: Field and Institutional Assessments study Mali Meteorological Service (Meteo Mali) began in 1982 an agroclimatological project that provided forecast and climate data to farmers in combination with agricultural extension and agricultural decision support regarding what to plant and when relative to weather forecasts and local precipitation. To explore possibilities for up-scaling this experience in other Sahelian countries, CCAFS, USAID, IRI, IER and AGRHYMET engaged in a thorough assessment study which is currently underway. The objective is to collect detailed information about the institutional context in which the project was set up and run, the scientific information used to inform the forecasts and other information conveyed to participant farmers, the ways in which this project has impacted farming practices related to the targeted crops (millet and sorghum), and how those impacts on farming practice came to pass. A workshop attended by 17 participants from the above-mentioned institutions aimed to discuss the methodology and capacitate the survey team, which will be running the field survey in 21 participating and 21 non-participating villages. Deliverables: field and institutional assessment study report of the Mali Agro-meteorological advisory mechanism for its scaling-up in the Sahel Output 3.2.1.: Evidence, analysis and trials to support institutional designs, policy and finance that will deliver benefits to poor farmers and women, and reduce GHG emissions in Ghana, Mali, Senegal and Burkina Faso, West Africa. 3.2.1.1. National level analysis of current climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts in agriculture through stakeholder consultations and expert workshops Two national policy stakeholder meetings have been organized in Ghana (through CSIR) and Mali (through ICRISAT) to discuss national stakeholder consultations reports on “Status and trends of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Efforts for Agriculture: research needs and priorities”. The objective was to document the current status and trends of projects, policies and other efforts at the national level in the two countries as part of a wider CCAFS West Africa pilot countries activities aiming to: (1) Adapt smallholder agriculture to the changing climate and (2) Reduce agriculture’s impact on greenhouse gases. In addition, two national stakeholder survey reports on “the Status and trends of climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts for agriculture” have been produced for Senegal and urkina Faso through an internship hosted by ICRISAT. Deliverables: four national reports on climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts have been edited and disseminated among country stakeholders to appropriately guide further initiatives of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Also, key country stakeholders for climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, programs and projects were identified to insure efficient country-level engagement in CCAFS program. Recommendations of research needs and priorities were listed for each country for to filling knowledge gaps on mitigation practices effectively adoptable by resource-poor smallholders. 3.2.1.2. Project–level action research on economic and technical feasibility of C-market for smallholders: the case of the biocarbon project in Niger 6 This study analysed Niger bio-carbon project implementation in order to identify sound mitigation options and incentive mechanisms for agricultural climate change mitigation to benefit the smallholders. This will greatly contribute to understanding the current status and trends of projects, policies and other efforts at the project level to (1) adapt smallholder agriculture to the changing climate and (2) reduce agriculture’s impact on greenhouse gases. Drought and famine have had serious effects on human health and the environment in recent years. This biocarbon project is based on the exceptional capacities of Acacia senegalensis tree species, an endemic species from the African Sahel superbly adapted to harsh ecological conditions and producing several environmental benefits. The project is aiming to reforest over 17,000 ha of degraded land throughout Niger with native, drought- resistant acacia senegalensis. 32 local communities are involved and it is expected to sequester about 1.8 million tCO2 by 2017. There are also strong local social and environmental benefits: Social: Income generation through carbon payments and Arabic gum production (expected to purchase emission reductions of 500,000 tCO2e from the project). The vast majority of the plantations are developed by small local farmers on communal desert lands under partnership agreements with a private company that would also harvest the gum arabic. The project also results in technical transfer of know-how and training to the communities, especially in terms of best practices regarding tree selection, grafting, nursery technology and field monitoring. Environmental: Rehabilitation of degraded land and biodiversity; Re-introduce agricultural activities through intercropping with groundnuts and cowpeas. This is a highly replicable project (already in Mali and starting in Burkina Faso). However, there is a strong need for additional capacity building efforts at the community level Deliverables: A Report that documents the Niger biocarbon project current status of implementation and an analysis of the mitigation options, including: (1) Framework for to identifying feasible, pro-poor incentives for smallholders and their institutional arrangements (2) Summary of different mitigation options and their costs and benefits; (3) Summary of pros and cons of incentive mechanisms (for audience of practitioners and policy makers); (4) Recommendation of priorities for action in agricultural mitigation community to enhance incentives. 3.2.1.3. Developing community-based climate smart agriculture through participatory action research in five benchmark sites in West Africa CCAFS has partnered with ICRAF and ICRISAT in West Africa to undertake its participatory action research; the project aims to test and validate in partnership with rural communities and other stakeholders, a scalable climate-smart model for agricultural development that integrates a range of innovative agricultural risk management strategies. To that end, a planning workshop with major stakeholders from countries (NARS, NGOs, ANAMS, AGRHYMET, IUCN) was organized in order to collectively design research tools and methods that will be used by farmers, developers, managers and policy makers to identify, to develop cost- effective options for agricultural mitigation that also concur to strengthening the adaptive capacity of actors while supporting local sustainable development, especially related to food security and climate change adaptation. Lessons learnt from the whole process will be also captured. The workshop provided opportunity for sharing and learning from past and on-going experiences related to the PAR objectives at each of the pilot countries. Each country team came up with a work plan that will be refined and validated at country level with all stakeholders (government, civil society, NGOs, community-based organizations, research and extension services, etc.). Deliverables: Workshop report including countries’ workplans for 2012 and 2013. Output 3.3.2. Methods developed and validated for GHG monitoring and accounting at farm and landscape level to contribute to compliance and voluntary market standards 3.3.2.1. Regional team for the development of GHG quantification methods 7 Emissions of GHG are the primary causes of anthropogenic climate change which has severe impacts on agriculture. Spectrums of methods are used nowadays for estimating GHG emissions from various sectors. However, significant gaps and inconsistencies persist in the ways GHG emissions are currently measured and reported, particularly at farm and landscape levels. In West Africa, the main issues on GHG quantification are related to methodologies, data and uncertainty assessment, quality control, technical capacity and greenhouse gas accounting and reporting principles. A regional group of GHG measurement experts from six West African countries have been supported through small grants from CCAFS to implement experiments on GHG quantification methods considering specific land uses in the sub-region. The team is supported by scientists from CGIAR centres (ICRAF & ICRISAT) for regular networking and knowledge sharing among team members. The regional team will be linked with the global technical working group on agricultural GHG to benefit from up-to-date scientific information and progress (http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/ecosystem/t-agg/international-project). An initial workshop aimed to start strengthening their capacity through interactions and discussions on their respective proposals, but also to structure the networking among scientists and other beneficiaries at national level (representatives of national policy institutions). This interaction between scientists and policy makers aims to guide the development of sound decision support making tools for the sub-region. Deliverables: six country projects on carbon measurements. Output 4.1.1.: Coherent and plausible futures scenarios to 2030 and looking out to 2050 that examine potential development outcomes under a changing climate and assumptions of differing pathways of economic development developed for the first time in a participative manner with a diverse team of stakeholders from West Africa. 4.1.1.1. Supporting scenarios process and regional capacity in scenarios for linking global to regional to national policies. 51 participants from National and regional institutions and organisations actively involved in defining environmental and food security policies (state institutions, NGOs, Farmers organisations, NARS, Universities͙) engaged in the development of plausible alternate narratives of the future of West Africa in terms of socio-economic and political change and the effects of these futures on food security, environment and livelihoods. The participatory development of the scenarios by stakeholders from the region aims to linking knowledge with action while developing regional capacity for governance and decision-making in the face of key regional and global uncertainties. Also, the socio-economic scenarios process and functions are used as a platform for the exchange and application of knowledge and experience between CCAFS, researchers and policy makers, private sectors, NGOs and other societal actors. Because scenarios allow for the capturing of uncertainties and systems complexity in a coherent and plausible yet surprising and challenging fashion, scenarios are also a tool for generating shared engagement. Deliverables: A scenario workshop report developing comprehensively 4 plausible scenarios for the sub- region and how these scenarios can be used to explore how the visions for food security, environments and livelihoods could be realized in each of the alternative futures, what are the major obstacles and what policies and strategies would be effective across the scenarios. 4.1.1.2. Disseminating the household level study results among wider public through communication among sub-regional and national actors. The five household level-study reports have been validated at country level (validation workshops), and edited both in English and French to insure large dissemination and knowledge sharing while facilitating linkage between research and policy actors. The implementation process of these baseline surveys in West Africa, through NARS and specialized institutions such as INSAH, has contributed to strengthen the capacity of these institutions to harmoniously design, implement and report surveys across countries and regions. Deliverables: Five household level-study reports produced by NARS under the supervision of a sub-regional specialized institution (INSAH); 8 Output 4.1.4. Analyses providing evidence of the benefits of, strategies for, and enhanced regional capacity in, gender and pro-poor climate change research approaches that will increase the likelihood that CCAFS-related research will benefit women and other vulnerable as well as socially differentiated groups. 4.1.4.1. Testing tools and methodologies for research on gender and climate change, agriculture, food security and rural development in northern Ghana Two participants from West Africa have been capacitated through a training workshop and ground testing of training materials (FAO/CCAFS) to develop gender-related tools and methods and to implement regional gender-climate change case studies. Through the training, the concept of climate analogues was introduced to participants. Other tools were used to communicate uncertainty given the uncertainty inherent in climate projections. Using institutional analysis, Venn diagrams and guided questions as tools, institutional arrangements allowing women to take advantage of opportunities for ‘climate smart’ agricultural activities, (e.g. carbon projects to mitigate emissions and improve livelihoods by adopting improved adaptation practices) were examined. Food security, income and expenditure calendars drawn in male and female focus groups and guided questions were used to examine how women and men manage risks related to food insecurity and loss of income and explored gender differentiated coping strategies and household decision making when natural disasters occurs. A weather forecast session was held to inform design of action research to reach women, men and youths with weather and climate-related information that they can use it in making ‘climate smart agricultural’ decisions. From the ground testing of tools with communities, specific recommendations were made to insure sound implementation of climate smart agriculture, taking into consideration gender and social differentiation. Deliverables: A report on models, tools and approaches to collect information on climate analogues, climate information, institutions and mitigation, and adaptation strategies and risk. Output 4.1.5. Mainstreaming adaptation strategies into national policies, agricultural development plans, and key regional and global processes related to agriculture and rural development, food security and climate change. 4.1.5.1. Strengthen the capacity of people and their institutions through participation to global levels events. Through their effective participation to global level events, various sub-regional and national stakeholders have been supported to engage with CCAFS program and to communicate and share their experiences at global level: Global Science Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture, Ede-Wageningen (representative from CORAF, AGRHYMET, ACMAD, FARA, ROPPA) CCAFS Science meeting, Bonn (representative from CORAF, AGRHYMET, ACMAD, FARA) ARDD and Forest day5-COP17, Durban (ROPPA, INRAN) CCAFS regional program leaders for West and East Africa have undertaken during 2011fruitful dialogues with farmer’s organizations in Africa, namely ROPPA in West Africa, EAFF in East Africa and SACAU in Southern Africa. The purpose is to support these organizations with useful knowledge going forward, to plan future positions and actions around climate change. Taking advantage of the presence of these organizations as well as key supporters such as COMESA and FANRPAN in Durban for COP17, regional program leaders, with the support from CCAFS coordination Unit organized with them a strategy meeting to plan the way forward for 2012. One of the key recommendations on how to collaborate in 2012 to push ahead the agenda for small-scale farmers dealing with climate change is to scale-up the engagement started in 2011 in the various regions (East Africa, Southern Africa, West Africa), with continued support from CCAFS program and FANRPAN. It is also recommended to explore on how farmers and their organizations will be effectively involved in the development of policies and in the validation of a work program on agriculture. Regional program leaders of CCAFS and representatives of farmers’ organizations 9 agreed to pursue exchanges and ideas on possible ways to move forwards in 2012 with concrete collaborative actions in respective regions. Deliverables: Global Science Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture (http://www.gscsa2011.org/Workinggroups/Theme1a.aspx), CCAFS Science meeting, ARDD and Forest day5-COP17 (http://www.agricultureday.org/learning-events-details#levent3). Output 4.2.1.: Integrated assessment framework, toolkits and databases to assess climate change impacts on agricultural systems and their supporting natural resources in West Africa. 4.2.1.1. Implementing village-level baseline surveys in five CCAFS pilot benchmark sites in West Africa. INSA,, NARS, NGOs, countries’ departments of Agriculture and Environment, other state and non-state organisations actively intervening in the five benchmark sites in West Africa have engaged with CCAFS for the implementation of the village-level baseline survey. Data were collected, analysed and reported across the five countries through a collaborative work between a regional team and country teams, both supervised by INSAH, a regional specialised institution for food security studies. Relevant baseline information on villages about natural resources (soil, land, water, livestock, fisheries and agroforestry management͙), adaptive and mitigative capacity, access to climate and agricultural information and services, as well as mitigation information, have been compiled in reports and widely used by partners to inform on strategies for adapting to a changing climate. The study process in West Africa has allowed strengthening the capacity of scientists and technicians from sub-regional level (INSAH) to national levels (NARS, NGOs). The process has also allowed local engagement with CCAFS for subsequent participatory action research. Deliverables: Reports collating and analysing for each village: resources, adaptive and mitigative capacity, access to climate and agricultural information and services. 4.2.1.2. Country sites characterisation through detailed, qualitative and quantitative description of the five CCAFS sites of Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger and Senegal. A detailed qualitative and quantitative description of the five CCAFS sites of Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger and Senegal has been done in order to provide scientists and other CCAFS stakeholders with concise information that can support the development of partnerships and research activities on the ground. It also includes a collection of primary data at the sites and the compilation of secondary (legacy) data, mostly in tabular and GIS formats. Research stakeholders at site and their activities, potential research partners at site, as well as reflections and analyses on CCAFS research possibilities at each site (risk, adaptation, mitigation), value that CCAFS research can add to the site, Climate change related issues that CCAFS research can change at each site, are also provided through this study. Deliverables: Five site characterisation reports produced and edited in French and English for wide dissemination. 1.4. ACTIVITY REPORTING SUMMAR See intranet Excel document. 1.5. PUBLICATIONS Abdou et Al., 2011. Methodology for the Calibration of daily satellite rainfall estimation algorithm for West Africa. Synthesis report, Agrhymet. Adiku et al., 2011. A diagnosis study on the introduction and operationalization of weather Index-based Crop Insurance Scheme in Ghana. University of Kumasi-SARI, Ghana. Bougouna S. et Al., 2011. Documenting local innovative options for adaptation and mitigation to climate change, and mechanisms for networking among innovative farmers in West Africa. Synthesis report. 10 CCAFS, 2011. Qualitative and quantitative description of CCAFS benchmark sites in West Africa. CCAFS, 2011. Village-level baseline study of Kaffrine (Senegal), Fakara (Niger), Lawra-jirapa (Ghana), Cinzana (Mali), Tougou (Burkina Faso). Diakité et Al., 2011. Household-level baseline study of Cinzana, Mali. Reports CCAFS-INSAH-IER. Naab and Koranteng, 2011. Gender and CC-related tools to mainstreaming gender and social differentiation into regional/national strategies for climate change, agriculture and food security, Lawra-Jirapa Site, Ghana. 25p. Joost et al., 2011. Scenario development workshop for food security, environments and livelihoods in West Africa. 65p. Koné et Al., 2011. Collation of regional yield data for crop model calibration and validation for five countries in West Africa. Ndiaye et Al., 2011. Communicating the probabilistic seasonal forecast for a better farming management and decisions at Kaffrine, Senegal. Synthesis report, 17 pages. Ndour et Al., 2011. Household-level baseline study of Kaffrine, Senegal. Reports CCAFS-INSAH-ISRA. Naab et Al., 2011. Household-level baseline study of Lawra-Jirapa, Ghana. Reports CCAFS-INSAH-SARI. Boureima et Al., 2011. Household-level baseline study of Fakara, Niger. Reports CCAFS-INSAH-INRAN. Somé et Al., 2011. Household-level baseline study of Tougou, Burkina Faso. Reports CCAFS-INSAH- INERA. Priti et al., 2011. Status & trends of Climate change adaptation and mitigation policy for agriculture in Ghana. Synthesis Report, 66p. Samaké et Al., 2011. Status & trends of Climate change adaptation and mitigation policy for agriculture in Mali. Synthesis Report, 42p. Samari et al., 2011. Status & trends of Climate change adaptation and mitigation policy for agriculture in Burkina Faso. Synthesis Report, 24p. Samari et al., 2011. Status & trends of Climate change adaptation and mitigation policy for agriculture in Senegal. Synthesis Report, 32p. Somda et Al., 2012. Documentation of the M&E toolkit implementation and the capacity strengthening of people and institutions in the CCAFS benchmark site of Cinzana, Mali. Country report, IUCN/CCAFS. Somda et Al., 2012. Documentation of the M&E toolkit implementation and the capacity strengthening of people and institutions in the CCAFS benchmark site of Fakara, Niger. Country report, IUCN/CCAFS. Somda et Al., 2012. Documentation of the M&E toolkit implementation and the capacity strengthening of people and institutions in the benchmark CCAFS site of Tougou, Burkina Faso. Country report, IUCN/CCAFS. Somda et Al., 2012. Documentation of the M&E toolkit implementation and the capacity strengthening of people and institutions in the benchmark CCAFS site of Lawra-jirapa, Ghana. Country report, IUCN/CCAFS. Somda et Al., 2012. Policy decision recommendations from the M&E toolkit implementation process across administrative levels. Synthesis report, IUCN/CCAFS. Traoré et Al., 2011. Harmonizing methodologies for seasonal forecasting of the characteristics of the rainy season in West Africa. Synthesis report, Agrhymet. Traoré et al., 2011. A field and institutional assessment study report of the Mali Agro-meteorological advisory mechanism for its scaling-up in the Sahel. IER Mali. Zakou et al., 2011. Mitigation Options and Incentive Mechanisms for agricultural climate change mitigation to benefit the smallholders: case study on the Niger bio-carbon project on acacia Senegal plantation. Synthesis report. 1.6. CASE STUDIES Case study 1: Engaging farmers organisations, regional economic institutions and national sectorial policy institutions with CCAFS through strategic partnerships with ROPPA, ECOWAS and state agricultural and environmental specialised institutions in West Africa 11 Case type: Non-research partnerships Brief description of the activity: CCAFS West Africa Program has developed strategic non-research partnerships with key organisations which have engaged with the program for climate change, agriculture and food security related issues. Indeed, Introduction of CCAFS program during ROPPA-led meeting where immediate areas of interest have been identified and further implemented through ROPPA capacitation to attend global level meetings on climate change (International conference on Climate Smart Agriculture, ARDD, COP17-Africa pavilion events͙) Result of activity: This partnership allowed ROPPA to interact and express a unified voice with sister organisations from East Africa (EAFF) and Southern Africa (SACAU) to advocate for a specific work program of agriculture under the SBSTA and the AWG-LCA. ECOWAS department on agriculture and ROPPA support and promote climate smart agriculture as a triple wins approach (enhanced productivity, improved resilience and reduced GHG emissions) that should guide regional agricultural policy frameworks and initiatives (ex: ECOWAP). They are interested in pursuing the partnership with CCAFS to benefit from up-to- date technologies, tools and measures for an effective implementation of climate smart agriculture in West Africa and to be capacitated to advocate for their positions at international level. The National Environmental Council for Sustainable Development (CNEDD) and the National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRAN) of Niger organised a successful learning event during the ARDD in Durban on how the Niger Republic is building resilience of farmers to climate change and increasing food security through Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration. Partners involved and their role: ROPPA: participated in various global events re climate smart agriculture; also organised meetings among its national platforms to explain (through CCAFS) and promote climate smart agriculture. ECOWAS, ROPPA and diverse national actors are engaged with CCAFS in the process of scenarios development for agriculture and food security. INRAN and CNEDD form an example of research- policy institutions partnership for allowing uptake of proven technologies. Web address for further information: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/climate-smart-agriculture-offers-triple- win Case study 2: Strengthening capacity of farmers and local institutions to reduce climate risk through seasonal forecast communication and evaluation at Kaffrine Case type: Capacity strengthening Brief description of the activity: A series of workshops were organised at Kaffrine CCAFS benchmark site, Senegal, to communicate the probabilistic seasonal forecast and to evaluate the impact of the forecast products and communication process on farmers’ management decision. Farmers and local partners (NGOs, Agricultural extension services, farmers’ organisations) were exposed to the probabilistic seasonal forecast to help them make management decisions that can reduce climate risks. Their respective management options were monitored along the rainy season and a final evaluation informs on the effectiveness or impact of the forecast products on farmers’ decision making. The whole process was accompanied by a communication process through national TV and village radios coverage. Result of activity: Farmers listed empirical/Indigenous knowledge on weather and climate, including indicators for imminent onset of the rainy season, empirical sign of a major rainy event, sign for a good rainy season, sign of a good cropping season, and signs of the end of the season. These were crossed against possible scientific facts and explanation for a better understanding. Farmers were also trained to getting used to rainfall amount, its variability, being able to recognize normal year, wet years and dry years and to explore hypothetical forecasts for management decision making. This knowledge capacitated them to decide and plan more confidently their cropping season activities. The communication coverage led to a widespread dissemination and interest of the forecast products and process across the country. Partners involved and their role: ANAMS: Senegalese National Weather Agency, delivered the probabilistic forecasts to farmers and led the whole process; 12 ISRA: National Agricultural Research Institute of Senegal, developed the evaluation survey and its implementation; SDDR-Kaffrine: Local governmental agricultural extension service-Kaffrine, mobilized farmers organizations at Kaffrine; ANCAR: National Agency for Agricultural and Rural Advice, mobilized farmers and women’s groups; World Vision: An international NGO working to improve health, education, clean water, food, and income generation activities, especially for women; involved local experts in the process. Research on which the activity is based: research under objective 1 of CCAFS theme 2 “identify and test innovations that enable rural communities to better manage climate-related risk and build more resilient livelihoods” Web address for further information: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/putting-climate-forecasts-farmers-hands Case study 3: Using participatory M&E to strengthen the adaptive capacity to climate change of farmers and institutions in West African countries: Case study in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali and Niger Case type: Capacity strengthening Brief description of the activity: People and organizations (CBOs, NGOs and state organisations) adapt better to changing conditions if they are able to anticipate future changes, monitor current changes, as well as observe and assess the effects of efforts to improve their situation. In other words, they can better adapt if they can monitor and evaluate their own adaptation practices and/or strategies, either formally or informally. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is therefore a practice that can greatly improve learning from experience. It can be used through adaptive management (learning by doing) to improve adaptation-related decision-making processes and thus in turn, enhance the adaptive capacity of people and organisations to climate change and variability. Through a partnership with IUCN, CCAFS West Africa Program is promoting the use of a planning and M&E toolkit by country multi-disciplinary teams in charge of implementing the community-level participatory action research at the five benchmark sites (currently implemented in Mali, Niger, Ghana and Burkina Faso). The toolkit harmoniously combines several existing tools (11) and approaches and multi-scale interventions in order to define a vision and behavioural changes required to increase the adaptive capacity. This allows a participatory planning and monitoring that result into a solid understanding about local practices, cultures and strategies against climate change in order to ground local adaptation on a scientific basis. The ultimate output expected by the end of the process is a model allowing the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into development plans, at various administrative levels, and contributing to increase the adaptive capacity of people and institutions, in preparation to widely support national planning and policy making and to reduce vulnerability at local levels. Result of activity: As a key requirement, four country multidisciplinary teams (Experts on agricultural resources management, on social science, on climate) have been formed and have been trained/capacitated to the use of the climate change adaptive capacity M&E toolkit developed through the IDRC/DFID funded CCAA program in CCAFS benchmark sites; The country teams have then applied the set of planning tools to inform the CCAFS’s Participatory Action Research programme and other adaptation initiatives from local to sub-national in support to decentralized management of natural resources. A documentation of the process and the lessons learned along the implementation is underway while preparing to initiate the M&E of participatory-defined adaptation options. Partners involved and their role: Local communities, the most key partners, are involved in data collection and analysis during the community level and districts workshops. IUCN-PACO is leading the implementation of the M&E project in close collaboration with ICRAF Sahel node, which is facilitating the whole PAR work of CCAFS in West Africa. ICRISAT/CCAFS regional program is providing guidance and inputs on the CCAFS program and the PAR approach. NARS and University scientists form the core members of the country teams that implement the project. The Sub-national and National level authorities in charge of rural development participate in field-tests to ensure that farmers perspectives vis-à-vis of climate change adaptation are well understood and taken into account in national policies. 13 Through the learning by doing process that will be put in place, local NGOs enhance their capacity to better design, implement, monitor and evaluate their adaptation actions at community level. Web address for further information: 1.7. SYNTHESIS OF REGIONAL ACTIVITIES 1. Synthesis of research activities During year 2011, a number of research activities have been initiated in West Africa to characterize CCAFS’ benchmark sites, to collate agricultural trials data with NARS and Universities, to document current status of climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts for agriculture in countries, to inventory existing knowledge and information re adaptation and mitigation practices, to diagnosis baseline conditions towards the introduction of a weather-based insurance scheme to the Lawra farming community in Northern Ghana, to test climate risk management tools, as well as tools and methodologies for research on gender and climate change, agriculture, food security and rural development. The outputs from these activities are the basis for the development of transformational adaption strategies with low carbon emissions that could contribute improving the adaptive capacity of communities and food security. The participatory action research has been also initiated through partnering with ICRAF Sahel-node and ICRISAT, the aim being to develop in the five CCAFS benchmark sites, community-based climate smart agriculture options that are up-scalable across the sub-region. ICRISAT has also been actively involved in the assessment study on the Up-scaling Potential of Mali's Innovative Agrometeorology Advisory program, and has also contributed (through bilateral funds) to the participatory identification of climate-proof crop varieties for the sahelian zone. Training activities have been also undertaken to strengthen the capacity of sub-regional and national experts to use relevant research approaches, methodologies and tools for the implementation of CCAFS- related activities in the sub-region, including analogue methods, regional breeding strategies, gender- related tools and methods, methodologies for seasonal forecasting of rainy season characteristics in West Africa, rainfall data quality control, calibration of daily satellite rainfall estimation algorithm. AfricaRice: Activities conducted through 3 projects: (1) RISOCAS: Developing rice and sorghum crop adaptation strategies for climate change in vulnerable environments in Africa, focusing on development of crop adaptation strategies for irrigated rice, rainfed sorghum, and rainfed upland rice to cope with climate change. This is done through cultivating a broad range of varietal types of rice and sorghum will be cultivated along longitudinal and altitudinal gradients in West Africa and Madagascar. (2) ESCAPE: assessing the vulnerability of rural societies in sub-Saharan Africa to climate and environmental changes and to explore adaptation pathways to reduce this vulnerability. This will be achieved by fostering inter-disciplinary research, through both retrospective and prospective studies, on the evolution of different agricultural, ecological, and social systems interacting together under the global environmental changes. The AfricaRice subproject is executed in collaboration with CIRAD (France), ISRA and SAED (Senegal) and IER and ON (Mali). (3) PARASITE: aims to prepare the rice sector in threatened areas of Sub-Saharan Africa against projected increases in infestation levels of parasitic weeds. Vulnerable locations will are investigated, with emphasis on the effects of climate variability and extremes on parasitic-weed survival, reproduction and virulence, direct and indirect economic impacts, and sustainable management strategies for resource-poor farmers. The project is executed in a collaborative effort with AfricaRice, CNRA (Cote d’Ivoire), INRA (enin) and MARI (Tanzania). BIOVERSITY: organised a workshop in Frankfurt on 14-16 June, 2011, on approaches to cope with climate change” where CCAFS Regional program leader West Africa presented a synthesis on “the use of indigenous knowledge and participatory plant breeding to improve crop production and regenerate crops and tree species in West Africa. The workshop covered methods, approaches and tools regarding participatory monitoring of agrobiodiversity on farm, including a novel method for Red Listing of cultivated species. Proceedings of the workshop are in press. Also, participants from the sub-region attended a workshop on climate change and banana growth and pests and diseases, where 40 banana 14 scientists generated a state of the art on parameters for moving forward with climate change projections on banana growth for three cultivar groups, considering Fusarium wilt, black leaf streak and weevils/nematodes. The participatory banana mapping editor is being reprogrammed for more speed and with links to CCAFS functions. Scientists from the sub-region also benefited from a training on tools and methods for research on underutilized species. ICRAF: Increasing small-scale farmer benefits from agroforestry tree products in West and Central Africa; Promoting Development of Economically Viable Rubber Smallholdings in West Africa; Domestication of Jatropha curcas for oil production on smallholder farms in the Sudano-Sahelian region with focus on Mali; Adaptation of Land use to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); Parkland Trees and Livelihoods: Adapting to Climate Change in West African Sahel; Promoting Rural Innovations through Participatory Tree Domestication in West and Central Africa; Program to Support Smallholder Conservation Agriculture Promotion in Western and Central Africa; ICRISAT: has run IMPACT model for groundnut and sorghum. Two popular and widely adopted sorghum and groundnut cultivars were calibrated for South Asia (India) and WCA and drought, heat tolerance and yield potential traits simulated under current climate and future climates. IFPRI: Cost-benefit analysis that simulates the adoption of mitigation practices carried out for Ghana, and Morocco. IITA: Framework for cassava catalogues developed and GxE databases identified for upload to Agtrials; Framework developed and applied to identify and monitor significant new biotic threats in cassava and banana throughout Africa wide; Tools developed to evaluate the carbon footprint of coffee and cocoa systems at plot and regional level; Report produced on the assessment approach and intermediate results of carbon sequestration potential of various cocoa and coffee based system arrangements and implication to food security. ILRI: Supporting the vulnerable: Increasing the adaptive capacity of Agro pastoralists to Climatic change in West and Southern Africa using a transdisciplinary research approach; Documentation of how agro- pastoralists are coping with climate risk in West and Southern Africa, IWMI: Re-Thinking Water Storage for Climate Change Adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa; Engagement of local communities and stakeholders to identify, enhance and test future adaptation scenarios and agricultural risk management strategies in Volta and Nile Basins. Basin water allocation modelling and economic analyses for improved water allocation under CC scenarios- Volta, Blue Nile, Ganga and Nepal WorldFish: Methodologies developed to assess dynamic vulnerability in fisheries and aquaculture sector; synthesized for different scales from the global, regional and national level to sectoral vulnerability. This includes foresight studies methods. Global Scenario for 2050 for fisheries and aquaculture. Finalize regional scenarios developed in Quest (Ghana, West Africa) and link with CCAFS; organised scenario methods training in Ghana 2. Synthesis of regional engagement activities The engagement with sub-regional level partners such as CORAF, AGRHYMET, ACMAD, INSAH, ROPPA, has been strengthened through concrete actions implemented collaboratively with CCAFS (e.g. scenario workshops, exchange platform between researchers and policy makers) and through their active involvement in major international events (International conference on Climate Smart Agriculture, ARDD, COP17-Africa pavilion events). Also, through presentations in major regional meetings, CCAFS has been more exposed to other potential partners such as IRD, CIRAD, FARA, ENDA-TM, and networks (e.g.: RIPIECSA-AMMA-Net). Similarly at country level, CCAFS working partnership with NARS, universities, national met services, NGOs, has been reinforced through the implementation by them of diverse research activities as listed in the above synthesis. A regional team of scientists for the development of GHG quantification methods has been established and benefits from the support of CGIAR scientists (ICRAF and ICRISAT). The regional team scientists share experiences from their own research and with the global level technical working group on agricultural greenhouse gases. It is envisaged to link-up this scientific team with a technical team composed of representatives from national departments and institutions in charge of Agricultural, Environmental and 15 Food security policy orientation (e.g. EPA-Ghana, CNEDD-Niger, CONEDD-SP/CPSA, SE/CNSA-Burkina Faso, AEDD-Mali, CSE-Senegal, NAPAs, and UNFCCC focal points). This technical group should be regularly up- dated by the regional quantification team on existing approaches and tools that could be used to define intervention priorities at country level in order to inform decision making. In addition to the above mentioned stakeholders, civil society and private sector have also engaged with CCAFS program through the process of regional development scenarios where diverse stakeholders discuss and develop plausible future development scenarios for the sub-region. Various meetings attended at sub-regional level (RIPIECSA in Cotonou, USAID/ACMAD/AGRHYMET/CCAFS in Dakar, AGRHYMET/UNECA in Bamako͙) and international level (AfDB in Lisbon, Climate Smart Agriculture Conference in Ede-Wageningen, ARDD and Forest Day in Durban͙) offered opportunities to communicate and promote CCAFS objectives and current work in West Africa. ICRISAT newsletter “happening” is also used by CCAFS West Africa to promote its work in the sub-region. The RPL has been invited in two TV programs by the Senegalese TV broadcast to explain to the wide public what CCAFS program is doing in Senegal and how these activities could impact national agriculture and food security and livelihoods of farmers. 1 CCAFS South Asia: Annual Report 2011 1.3Activity Summary In 2011, CCAFS South Asia continued to focus on the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), where widespread rural poverty, depleting resource base, rapid population growth and climate change threaten to alter the fragile balance between production and consumption. Our main activity areas included climate and research models to improve data availability, analyses of vulnerability hotspots, social science research on local knowledge networks and innovation pathways, and capacity enhancement interventions. The following were notable among our 2011 outputs: Output 1.1.1 Development of farming systems͙ Milestone 1.1.1.1 Platform established for: Multi site agricultural database (2004/05-2009/10) consisting of results of the breeding trials from South Asia (Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) was established for climate change analysis. This included trails related to bread wheat, durum wheat, barley, chickpea, lentil, faba bean, and grass pea. The data have been converted into a standard format for uploading to the AgTrials database. Output 1.1.2 uilding of regional͙ Milestone 1.1.2.3 Training workshops: Capacity in the South Asian region was enhanced (25 participants from NARS, universities, NGOs, and government institutions) with the newly developed Climate Analogue tool and its possible applications in understanding future adaptation strategies. A case study on using climatic analogues for global wheat adaptation strategies has been started. Output 1.1.4 Testing of participatory models͙ Milestone 1.1.4.2 Video Testimonials: Together with local farming communities across IGP, several climate resilient technologies have been tested and videos uploaded to AMKN. Roles of cooperatives in sustaining livelihoods in Bihar, India; importance of education in coping with climate change issues; farmers’ realization about decreasing water table and its future consequences, particularly on agriculture; and efforts from stakeholders such as universities to breed crops and varieties requiring less water, were the issues covered in these videos. Output 1.3.1 New knowledge͙ Milestone 1.3.1.2Approaches, Methods: Farmer’s network, initiated in 2010 to evaluate varietal and germplasm adaptation strategies in rice and wheat, was strengthened at few sites in IGP in collaboration with Bioversity International. Participatory assessment of biodiversity through the farmer’s network created awareness among farmers across the IGP regarding opportunities for genetic adaptation to climate change. 2 Kutput ϭ͘ϯ͘Ϯ New information͕ Ŭnowledge͙ Milestone ϭ͘ϯ͘Ϯ͘Ϯ &armers’ traditional͗ Survey of indigenous and traditional knowledge of adaptation strategies at the farm level was completed. These reviews and surveys highlight the available indigenous knowledge that local communities possess and their specific roles to future adaptation strategies at the farm, regional and national levels. These surveys also document farmer’s knowledge on climate change, their specific roles to adaptation and dynamism of indigenous knowledge evolved over time in IGP. Output 2.1.3 Development; and demonstration͙ Milestone 2.1.3.1 Participatory pilot: Participatory pilot demonstrations have been established to test and validate a scalable climate-smart village model for agricultural development at Sangrur (north-western India), Vaishali (eastern India) and Rupandehi (Terai, Nepal) in partnership with rural communities and other stakeholders. The model consists of a portfolio of risk-management strategies including designed diversification, climate information services, insurance schemes, and community-based management of resources that build more resilient livelihoods. Output 2.3.3 Improved knowledge, tools, datasets͙ Milestone 2.3.3.2 Predictability of crop: A study conducted in collaboration with World Food Program to understand the impact of past weather on various food security indicators showed that crop yields, food prices and livestock products are influenced by recent climatic trends, particularly in the most vulnerable districts in the far western and western development regions of Nepal. The buffering impact of technological interventions was not clear. Output 3.1.1and Output 3.2.1 Milestone 3.1.1.1& Milestone 3.2.1.1: The agriculture sector contributes almost 20% of total emissions in India. A study conducted in collaboration with Indian Agricultural Research Institute to analyze options for mitigating these emissions in rice-wheat systems of IGP showed that minimum tillage, use of nitrification inhibitors, water management, and site specific nutrient management technologies were able to reduce GHG emissions without compromising productivity and at no significant additional cost. Policies and incentives are however, needed to encourage farmers to adopt these options. Output 3.3.2 Methods developed & validated͙ Milestone 3.3.2.1 Expert and stakeholder: Expert and stakeholder consultations on methods appropriate for measuring GHG emission from smallholder farming in South Asia was completed. The baseline study focuses on how agricultural greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced and sequestration enhanced while maintaining and even increasing food supply. The largest amount of GHG emissions was found to be from the livestock sector, mostly methane from enteric fermentation, followed by emissions from rice cultivation and N fertilizer application. 3 Output ϰ͘ϭ͘Ϯ 'lobal Θ regional maps͙ Milestone 4.1.2.1 Vulnerability assessment& maps: A capacity strengthening and training workshop focusing on NARS scientists (25 participants) from South Asia was completed. It focused on crop modeling and climate change scenarios for vulnerability assessment. Output 4.1.4 Analyses providing evidence of͙ Milestone 4.1.4.1 Drawing on Theme3: Capacities strengthening training workshops on gender and climate change were completed. The participants (20 in all) were from Nepal, India and Sri Lanka. Some of these trainers provided training to rural women (35 village panchs and sarpanchs from Sangrur, Punjab) in India. A training manual on ‘GenderΘ Climate Change’ was developed for South Asia. This layered approach aimed to foster new partnerships between CCAFS and regional on-the-ground practitioners, as well as ensure that the rural capacity enhancement workshops are eventually led by local people with in-depth knowledge of local issues. Output 4.1.5 Mainstreaming adaptation strategies͙ Milestone 4.1.5.1 Twenty scenario: Policy makers, civil society, researchers in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, as well as donors from World Bank and DFID were engaged in discussion around climate change policy, research and development. The South Asia brochure of CCAFS was published, regional email distribution list was prepared, and research papers were produced. In addition, several seminars were given, and blogs written. Similarly, a high level meeting with the President of Nepal was organized where he was briefed about CCAFS South Asia’s programs. 1.4 Activity Reporting: on intranet 1.5 Publications 1. Naresh Kumar, S., Aggarwal, P.K., Swaroopa Rani, Jain, S., Saxena, R., Chauhan, N. 2011. Impact of climate change on crop productivity in Western Ghats, coastal and northeastern regions of India. Current Science. 101(3): 332-341. 2. Varshney RK, Bansal KC, Aggarwal PK, Datta SK, Craufurd PQ. 2011. Agricultural biotechnology for crop improvement in a variable climate: hope or hype? Trends Plant Sci.;16 (7):363-71. 3. Vermeulen, S.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B.M.; Challinor, A.J.; Hansen, J.W.; Ingram, J.S.I.; Jarvis, A.; Kristjanson, P.; Lau, C.; Nelson, G.C.; Thornton, P.K.; Wollenberg, E. 2010. Outlook for knowledge, tools and action. Climate change, agriculture and food security, report No. 3. P. 16. 4 1.6 CCAFS South Asia Case Studies 2011 Case 1: Capacity Enhancement Workshops on Gender and Climate Change Adaptation Case Type: Social differentiation and gender; Capacity strengthening; Non-research partnerships Description: With the understanding that targeted knowledge can provide the basis for adaptive change, and as points of influence, female community leaders can be powerful agents of that change, CCAFS piloted a training of local partners (via a ‘Training of Trainers,’ or ToT) on how to conduct Capacity Enhancement Workshops (CEWs) for women farmers and local female legislators in South Asia. Result: The result of the first ToT and CEW has been dual capacity building of 21 local partners (from India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) to be able to pass on climate change knowledge in a gender-sensitive way (ToT), and35 rural Indian women legislators to better understand climate change and how to adapt, both for their own households and for their fellow village members (CEW).Other outputs include new relationships with on-the-ground NGOs and small research entities across South Asia, a training manual and various communications outputs like workshop report, blog, photos, videos and press clippings. Partners included IFFCO Foundation (logistics), Kulima Integrated Development Solutions (draft training manual, lead the ToT), Punjab Agricultural University, Punjab (resource persons for CEW in Sangrur), and all the ToT participants, who came from a range of organizations. Research upon which activity was based: While climate change will likely affect all rural livelihoods, it will have larger and more devastating implications for women who comprise about 40% of the agricultural workforce in South Asia. It is therefore crucial that women be also more conscious about the connections between climate change, agriculture, water, food, farm incomes, and their family’s food security. Web address: N/AReporting format: Blog, workshop report, photos and video. Case 2: Building Climate-Smart Villages Case Type: Non-research partnerships; Capacity strengthening Description: Over the course of several years, CCAFS South Asia will be helping to build “Climate-smart sillages” (CSs) as a participatory action research project in several villages of India (Bihar& Punjab), Nepal (Terai), and Bangladesh (southern coast). The project will partner with rural communities and other stakeholders to test and validate a scalable climate-smart model for agricultural development. The model will include a portfolio of risk management strategies including designed 5 diversification, climate information services, insurance schemes, and community-based management of resources that build more resilient livelihoods and sequester more carbon. Result: A scalable model has already been implemented at Vaishali (Bihar), Sangrur (Punjab), and Rupandehi (Nepal) involving 9 villages and around 500 households to test interventions related to dissemination of climate information services, index-based insurance, and water and carbon management. Partners include IFFCO Foundation, IFFCO Kinas Sanchar Limited, IFFCO Tokio, Indian Meteorology Department, Nepal Agricultural Research Council, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal, and WorldFish Center, Bangladesh. Research on which activity was based: The interventions are based on past research of several CG centers, NARS &Meteorology departments, where individually these interventions proved useful in adapting to climate stresses. Web address: N/A Reporting format: Blog, and forthcoming report, journal article, photos, and video. Case 3: &ĂƌŵĞƌƐ͛ EĞƚǁŽƌŬƐ for Experiments with Germplasm based Adaptation Strategies Case Type: Capacity strengthening Description:CCAFS has established a ‘farmer-based experimentation network’ in the IGP region (Haryana, Punjab, Bihar and Utter Pradesh) to explore means of strengthening the link between genebanks of wheat and local farmers in the context of adaptation to climate risks, understand the role of seed systems in enabling adaptation under changing production constraints and understand social and cultural barriers to adoption of adapted landraces and varieties. Result: Following participatory approach, the project encourages farmers to freely experiment with the supplied crop diversity during the on-farm trials, according to their own preferences and needs. Farmer visits across different sites in order to promote knowledge-sharing that enables farmers to learn from one another's experience in adapting to climate change. For res earchers, the project provides on-farm data and visualization of how different varieties perform. Partners include Bioversity International (research coordination), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (research collaboration), State Agricultural Universities in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar (research collaboration), and various local NGOs and farmer organizations. Research on which activity was based: Climate change may cause a considerable fraction of the wheat- producing areas in IGP to be classified as wheat stressed, threatening the food security of ~200 million people. More resilient seeds may be a crucial part of the solution. Web address: N/A Reporting format: Blog, Reports (interim ones received) and journal article (to come). 6 3.1 Synthesis of Regional Activities Synthesis of Research Activities: Our regional research strategy aims to support development of climate smart farming communities to be attained through formulation of enhanced adaptation and mitigation plans, technology targeted to increased climatic resilience, improved early warning systems, enhanced social safety nets, and carbon management for improved soils, productivity and income. The key pathways to achieve these outputs are more informed scientific research, policy impact, and capacity enhancement measurable by research reports, targeted research, policy briefs, geo-referenced databases, innovative partnerships and networks, blogs, and trainings as shown in the figure below. In 2011, RPL and several CG centres undertook initiatives on analyses of vulnerability hotspots, breeding strategies for improved climate resilience, social science research on local knowledge networks and innovation pathways, implementing participatory action research on climate smart villages/farms, quantification of GHG emissions and their mitigation, policy discussions on low carbon development pathways, and development of tools for decision support. To illustrate, IRRI used spatial analysis of past climate data to identify hot spots across South Asia to test a wide range of diverse rice germplasm produced in different abiotic stress breeding programs. IWMI did a vulnerability mapping of Sri Lanka; these findings have been included into Sri Lankan National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for 2011-2016. Several centres produced excellent results on breeding strategies for addressing climatic stresses. IRRI in an innovative study used ORYZA2000 crop growth simulation model for an ex-ante impact assessment of a hypothetical combination drought- and submergence-tolerant rice variety in the presence of climate change in South Asia. Their analysis indicated that the economic benefits of such a rice variety more than outweigh the cost of developing this new variety, especially in global climate change scenario. 7 ICRISAT also conducted studies on heat tolerance and specific drought tolerance traits in sorghum, chickpea, groundnut and millets. ICARDA collated data of 52 research sites of the international nursery testing program in South Asia for experiment results between 2005 and 2010 relating to bread wheat, durum wheat, barley, chickpea, lentil, fababean, and grass pea. These results are being uploading on AgTrials website data for use in model development, evaluation and applications. During 2011, we established participatory pilot demonstrations to test and validate a scalable climate- smart village model for agricultural development at three sites in IGP in partnership with rural communities and other stakeholders. The model consists of a portfolio of risk-management strategies including designed diversification, climate information services, insurance schemes, and community- based management of resources that build more resilient livelihoods. Complementary activities were also done in the region by some CG centres, namely ICRISAT, CIMMYT, and WorldFish. CIMMYT evaluated the effectiveness of the weather and market information being disseminated through small text messages on mobile phones to farmers in local languages. ICRISAT did some work on seasonal forecasting linked with crop management risk analysis in India. It also identified a set of grass-root level adaptation strategies and constraints that the farmers experienced which resulted in formulating a set of policy needs and road map translated into key messages and policy statements in Sri Lanka. WorldFish did a participatory research assessment for participatory action research on climate risk management with rural communities and other local stakeholders in four baseline villages of CCAFS located along a gradient of salinity and identified the key constraints faced by farmers. Water and salinity management, improved seeds, and knowledge of weather were some of the key issues identified for future research and development. Greater coordination among concerned CG centres around the concept of climate smart village is desirable. We compiled inventories of GHG emissions from agricultural sector for the key countries of South Asia using remote sensing, and regional/IPCC coefficients. Options that can reduce emissions were also identified. ICRAF showcased an innovative agroforestry project that is helping Indian smallholders to improve their livelihoods and reduce emission by enabling them to adopt emission reducing and carbon sequestering farming practices. WorldFish carried out a carbon footprint analysis of rice/fish farming systems in Bangladesh. ICRISAT produced a journal paper identifying carbon sequestration in dryland systems. Past trends in rainfall using observed data as well as rainfall time series simulated by regional climate models for Upper Ganges basins were anlaysed by IWMI. IWMI also assessed various scenarios of future climate and alternate water management strategies using a planning model in the Upper Ganga river Basin, India. Similar studies are now being done for Nepal. IWMI scientists also developed and disseminated tools for decision support for adaption planning in rice-producing regions of Godavari, Krishna and Cauvery river basins in India. Results of all these activities in the region have led to the development of more focused workplan for 2012 aiming to attain impact of research in understanding and implementing climate smart agriculture in South Asia. 8 Synthesis of Engagement Activities: With the aim to build climate smart farming and livelihoods, CCAFS South Asia in 2011 sought to engage farmers, policy makers, donors, NGOs, and other such stakeholders, integrating their knowledge to build partnerships and adaptation/mitigation approaches. Our key engagement efforts comprised meetings and dialogues with various senior officials from World Bank, FAO, DFID, and national policy planners, as well as a number of civil society research organizations to publicize CCAFS’ tools, techniques and climate change adaptation strategies; inform them about our research &development activities; and explore potential collaborations in South Asia. With the objective to learn about the key issues & approaches needed for climate smart agriculture from farmers, policymakers and other stakeholders, as well as to sensitize them about climate change, agriculture & food security, several seminars were delivered; while workshops were organized to empower stakeholders by increasing regional partnerships. Our major communications efforts in 2011 revolved around raising regional awareness of CCAFS’ South Asia’s work in the IGP, whereby a range of research literature was developed and publicized. Among them was a detailed CCAFS-South Asia brochure, as well as the commissioning of next two editions of the 2 Degrees Up photo-films, whose previous editions were widely circulated and well received. In addition, there were several blog posts focusing on CCAFS work in the region, low-carbon development pathways, the gender-side of climate change, and local traditional knowledge. A regional training-of- trainers manual on “Gender, Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security” was also published, and an accompanying training session was held, during which CCAFS made many beneficial connections with potential on-the-ground partners for 2012 and beyond. Bioversity conducted a course for scientist trainers and others in Nepal in tools for agrobiodiversity assessment and monitoring. A National Conference was organized by the IWMI to focus on the various issues related to climate change, water and food security in Nepal. This resulted in requests by various NGO’s and Government officials to partner in projects and activities, some of which have materialised in Projects since then. IWMI also organized stakeholder workshops to disseminate the various tools in adaptation planning. A newsletter ”Climarice” was also circulated to all stakeholders. ICRISAT assessed the grass root level adaptation strategies and constraints in Sri Lanka which resulted in formulating a set of policy needs and road map translated into key messages and policy statements. These were echoed in the stakeholder consultation and “Policy Dialogue” amongst the apex policy makers including ministers, planners and development practitioners. MILESTONES (OUTPUT TARGETS) PERFORMANCE IND ICATOR WorkplanActivities (2011) workplan potential partners (2011) TL RF IGP RF WA RF EA Status Explanation (WA) Explanation (EA) Explanation (IGP) Consolidated explanation Theme Leaders Num ber of unique g eog r a phic loca tions, wher e individua l and multi site tr ia ls ar e car r ied out; assessm ent of rela ted infor m a tion and meta da ta collected; and excha ng e of der ived infor m a tion Pha se 2: C om pila tion of multi-site tr ia l data (da ta ba ses and online repositor y) to be used in yea r 2 and 3 as the basis for im pr oving models, and ana lyzing effica cy of potentia l ada pta tion options (pa r t funded with reg iona l funds) (continua tion of 20 1 0 activities) C I AT, C I P, IC R I SAT, C I M M YT, IW M I , ILR I , NAR S 7 0 4 0 8 0 8 0 CIMMYT Valida tion tr ia ls of best-bet C A system s in East Afr ica and IG P- Data on the yield and other benefits (e. g . labour , fuel/a nim a l use) of C A options com pa r ed to conventiona l tilled ag r icultur e- Doubts on including it. CIMMYT : C olla tion of data of C A tr ia ls in East Afr ica . O utput: Data ava ila ble for use with cr op models on the effects of C A on system pr oductivity. CIMMYT : Tr ia ls to eva lua te the effects of cr op rota tions under C A conditions in East Afr ica and IG P. O utput: Data on the effects of cr op rota tions on system pr oductivity and pr oduction risks. ICARDA : Testing potentia l ag r icultur a l ada pta tion str a teg ies for rainfed ag r icultur e in the sem i-a r id and dr y sub-hum id tr opics using a com bina tion of model-ba sed ex ante ana lyses and iter a tive field-ba sed resea r ch on sta tion and in farmers’ fields. ESA. Output expected in 2011 : Analogue locations for four im por ta nt cr op g r owing ar ea s in Kenya and Z im ba bwe which com pr ise (i) cool/dr y, (ii) cool/wet, (iii) war m /dr y and (iv) war m /wet g r owing conditions identified and fully cha r a cter ized NAR ES: Kenya , Z im ba bwe, G er m a nyKenya n M eteor olog ica l Dept (KM D). Kenya ; Kenya n Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Institute (KAR I ), Kenya ; Z im ba bwe M eteor olog ica l Depa r tm ent (Z M D). Z im ba bwe; M idla nds Sta te Univer sity, (M SU ) Z im ba bweAR I : Ham bur g Univer sity, Faculty of Life Sciences, G er m a ny ICARDA: Compilation and analyses of existing databases to collate multiͲsite tr ia l data on cer ea ls and food leg um e cr ops to cha r a cter ize tar g et envir onm ents and esta blish eva lua tion and testing sites. O utput: Tar g et envir onm ents defined and pilot testing sites esta blished. NAR S in the developing and developed wor ld. ICARDA thr oug h C O -FU NDI NG (5 0 % restr icted): C om pila tion of existing data ba ses on cr op per for m a nce rela ted to clim a te fr om multiple sour ces (i. e. multiͲsite trial data of a range of crop varieties: Wheat, barley, lentil, chickpea, fa ba bea n and g r a sspea ) B I G M ; IW LM P CIP : C om pila tion of existing data ba ses on pota to & sweet pota to per for m a nce rela ted to clim a te fr om multiple sour ces Latinpapa –Latinamerican network of potato br eeding pr og r a m s. C AAS- C hinese Academ y of Agricultural Sciences. CPRI –Central Potato R esea r ch Institute, India . Key NAR I S in AfricaMP3 – RT – Root, tubers and ba na na . I R R I , C I R AD, JI R C AS, Eg ypt AfricaRice : C olla tion of existing multi-site tr ia l data for calibr a tion and valida tion of cr op sim ula tion models. O utput: Fir st ver sion of com pr ehensive multi-site data set on rice-ba sed system s fr om multiple sour ces ava ila ble  I R R I , C I R AD, JI R C AS, Eg yp Esta blishm ent of FAC E/FATE exper im ent in the hum id sub tr opics (C C AFS g r a nt for the equipm ent and 2 yea r s of oper a tions funding ) Na tiona l pr og r a m s acr oss Afr ica (invited call to a few), Indian’s expertise for support, Open ca ll in EA and W A to sta r t in June (for 1 yea r ) 1 0 0 M ethods developed and made publicly ava ila ble thr oug h developed com m unica tion pla tfor m s Pha se 2: Inter fa ce developm ent and Im plem enta tion of the Ana log ue methodolog y developed in 20 1 0 for exa m ining both spa tia l and tem por a l ana log ues based on multiple clim a te pr ojections (Them e 1 science funds). C onsulta ncy contr a ct for inter fa ce developm ent im plem enta tion of pha se 2 (m a na g ed by C I AT), plus Univer sity of Rea ding methodolog y input, 5 0 Scr ipt developm ent for Ana log ue tr a ining wor kshop ( G x E methodolog y) C onsulta ncy contr a ct (Univer sida d de Seg ovia ) 2 0 M ilestone 1. 1 . 1 . 3 * O ne to five fla g ship technolog ies identified, developed and dem onstr a ted in each of the 3 initia l tar g et reg ions which would dir ectly enha nce the ada ptive capa city of the far m ing system s to the clim a te cha ng e conditions. Launch thr oug h hig h level eng a g em ent with key sta keholder s at a key inter na tiona l meeting (2 0 1 5 ) Technolog ies developed and made publicly ava ila ble. Positive feedba ck and incr ea sed dem a nd of new technolog ies by the clientele. Field valida tion and assessm ent dur ing field visits by differ ent sta keholder s made as a par t of 20 1 5 visits ICARDA thr oug h C O -FU NDI NG (5 0 % C RP7 , 50 % restr icted): Developm ent and testing of zer o tilla g e and conser va tion ag r icultur e technolog ies in cer ea l and leg um e-ba sed cr opping system s C G I AR center s in colla bor a tion with other them es in the M P, NAR ES, AR I s, C I R AD, NG O s, nationa l g over nm ents, Far m er s' or g a nisa tions IC AR DA with NAR S Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pl a t fo rm est a b l i sh ed a n d ava i l a b l e on l i n e a t ww w . a gtri a l s. o rg wit h > 3,0 0 0 tri a l s a va i l a b l e sp a n n i n g 16 cro p s. Met h o d devel o p ed a n d pu b l i sh ed in CCAF S worki n g pa p er 12, an d mod el s m a d e a va i l a b l e on l i n e in R soft w a re, a n d th ro u gh user fri en d l y web -b a sed in t erfa ce a t htt p : //gism a p . ci a t . cgi a r. o rg/a n a l o gu es/ I R R I a n d ICAR DA ha ve co m p i l ed m u l t i - l o ca t i o n da t a set s a n d ha ve loa d ed som e of th em on Agtri a l s. o rg CIP a n d Bio versi t y un d ert a ki n g resea rch on AgTri a l s Da t a b a se in mu l t i -l o ca t i o n s; One sci en t i st su p p o rt ed to att en d worksh o p on 'Usi n g Cli m a t e Scen a ri o s a n d An a l o gu es for Desi gn i n g Ad a p t a t i o n Stra t egies' in Ka t h m a n d u , Nep a l Co m p l et ed Objective 1.1 Analyze and design processes to support adaptation of farming systems in the face of future uncertainties of climate in space and time Outcome 1.1: Agricultural and food security strategies that are adapted towards predicted conditions of climate change promoted and communicated by the key development and funding agencies (national and international), civil society organizations and private sector in at least 20 countries Output 1.1.1 Developm ent of far m ing system s and pr oduction technolog ies ada pted to clim a te cha ng e conditions in tim e and spa ce thr oug h desig n of tools for im pr oving cr ops, livestock, and ag r onom ic and natur a l resour ce mana g em ent pr a ctices Theme 1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change M ilestone 1. 1 . 1 . 1 Pla tfor m esta blished for multi-loca tion tr ia ls of technolog ies and g enotypes for G xE inter a ction ana lysis and the calibr a tion and eva lua tion of cr op models. (2 0 1 1 ) Ethiopia n Institute of Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch (EI AR ); Kenya n Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Institute (KAR I ); Susta ina ble Intensifica tion on M aize- Leg um e System s in Easter n and Souther n Afr ica (SI M LESA) pr oject. M ilestone 1. 1 . 1 . 2 Robust methods developed for calcula ting spa tia l and tem por a l ana log ues of clim a te. Par tner co-a uthor ed peer -r eviewa ble method(s) developed and tested codes using patter n-sca led HadC M 3 clim a te output. (2 0 1 1 ) 0 3 Agtri a l s pro ject s sign ed wit h NAR S (IER - Un i v. Ba m a ko , INER A- B u rki n a , SAR I -G h a n a ) Co m p l et ed IWMI: A com bina tion of G C M downsca ling to the basin level, hydr olog ica l modeling , liter a tur e review, eng a g em ent of loca l com m unities and other loca l sta keholder s to identify, enha nce and test futur e ada pta tion scena r ios and ag r icultur a l risk mana g em ent str a teg ies IWMI: A com bina tion of sur veys, modelling , inventor y of stor a g e types, econom ic ana lyses, and conceptua lisa tion. IWMI: Basin water alloca tion modelling and econom ic ana lyses for im pr oved water allocation under CC scenariosͲ solta ,– lue Nile , Ganga and Nepal W R I - G ha na , PIK, Z EF, AM U, W W F-I ndia , II TM -Ka npur IWMI: Inventor y of water stor a g e types W RI , AM U, Dept Ir r ig a tion of Nepa l- IWMI: R eg iona l tr end ana lysis. O utputs: Replica ble tools, models, methods and data suppor ting ag r icultur a l water mana g em ent and access to water in river basins under cha ng ing clim a tes and existing clim a te var ia bility W RI -G ha na , NBI , W W F-I ndia , IHE- Delft, II TM - I ndia , PIK- Potsda m ICRAF: Char a cter iza tion of clim a te ada pta tion options in tar g et reg ions. O utput: Inter a ctive, web-ba sed dig ita l veg eta tion maps as decision-suppor t tool for pr esent and futur e clim a tes based on ecolog ica l suita bility and W W F; UNEP ICRAF: I m pr oved under sta nding of veg eta tion responses to clim a te. O utput: Jour na l paper on a method for eva lua tion of clim a te responses of tr ees fr om long -ter m data sets (under review) No par tner s ICRAF : Farmers’ preferences for tree functions and species in regions of low, inter m edia te and hig her rainfa ll in the Sahel (jour na l ar ticle published) I NR AN; INER A; IER ; IFAD CIMMYT (20 1 1 ): Identifying coping and ada pta tion str a teg ies of far m er s and the poor to mana g e futur e clim a te outcom es CIMMYT : Ana lysis of futur e technolog y options for maize and whea t and ex- a nte ana lysis of their likely futur e im pa cts in ter m s of the econom ic, socia l and cultur a l benefits expected IRRI : Identifying clim a te cha ng e im pa cts and ada pta tion pathwa ys in major rice g r owing ar ea s with specific vulner a bilities NAR ES in India , Bang la desh, Indonesia , V ietna m , and the Philippines and AR I in Japa n, G er m a ny, USA, Austr a lia ICARDA : Using pr oduction envir onm ent descr iptor s as pr edictor s for ada ptive tr a its of sm a ll rum ina nts FAO , NAR S Applica tion pilot of the Ana log ue tool in at lea st two reg ions (r eg iona l funds) W A: C olla bor a tion with IC R AF I G P: C I AT, BAR C , C a se studies. C ha r a cter iza tion of sites in IG P and valida tion Pr a m od sub-contr a ct to India n par tner com ing to C ali by Apr il. EA: cha r a cter iza tion between the differ ent system s Sept: tr a ining * C apa city developm ent on the method (I G P reg iona l funds) NAR C , IC AR , NG O s M ilestone 1. 1 . 2 . 4 Reg iona l tr a ining wor kshop on appr oa ches and methods for eva lua ting cost/benefit of ada pta tion str a teg ies on a nationa l sca le (2 0 1 3 ) Two tr a ining s deliver ed eng a g ing 25 pa r ticipa nts tota l C osting Ada pta tion (C a se studies and testing of the SRO I appr oa ch - Kenya , Seneg a l) . O utput: Developm ent of a novel methodolog y for inter disciplina r y resilience and ada pta tion resea r ch and Socia l Retur n O n Investm ent costing . O xfor d Univer sity 5 0 Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Ana lyses of rur a l institutions in ena bling ada pta tion to develop a mor e pr ofound under sta nding of how loca l rur a l institutiona l actor s respond to the uphea va ls in livelihood system s tha t ar e being tr ig g er ed by clim a te cha ng e. Danish Institute for Inter na tiona l Studies CIMMYT : Scoping study for cha r a cter iza tion of clim a te-a da pta tion options in maize and whea t pr oduction system s in tar g et reg ions. O utput 20 1 1 : Synthesis of institutiona l ar r a ng em ents, policies and mecha nism s for im pr oving the ada ptive capa city of ag r icultur a l sector actor s; wha t is wor king wher e, how and why (Resea r ch paper ). I FPR I (G loba l Futur es Project), SI M LESA Project (Afr ica ) C SI SA pr oject (I G P-Asia ), II TA, IC AR DA, IC AR , EI AR , KAR I , UM B -U SA, UM B - Nor wa y ICRAF : U nder sta nding of institutiona l ar r a ng em ents, policies and mecha nism s tha t enha nce the ada ptive capa city of resour ce-poor households to adopt new far m ing pr a ctices, str a teg ies and beha viour s tha t reduce their vulner a bility to C C : synthesis paper . Har va r d, C C AFS, KAR I ; M O NR E; C ER ED; C O M AR T Policy review of ada pta tion in tar g et countr ies R eg iona l par tner s to be deter m ined - 15 Tra i n i n g worksh o p s hel d a n d a nu m b er of sta keh o l d ers now ca p a b l e of usi n g th e an a l o gu e m et h o d o l o gy. Init i a l a p p l i ca t i o n in fa rm er exch a n ge on goi n g. Co m p l et ed for sel ect ed fa rm i n g syst em s (m a i z e a n d wh ea t syst em s). Gen era l fra m ew o rk for in st i t u t i o n a l a rra n gem en t s a n d th ei r rol e in ad a p t a t i o n bei n g fin a l i sed in ea rl y 201 2 . Output 1.1.3 New knowledg e-synthesizing institutiona l ar r a ng em ents, policies and mecha nism s for im pr oving the ada ptive capa city of ag r icultur a l sector actor s and those involved in mana g ing the food system M ilestone 1. 1 . 3 . 1 *Docum ent pr oduced tha t synthesizes institutiona l ar r a ng em ents, policies and mecha nism s for im pr oving the ada ptive capa city of ag r icultur a l sector actor s (addr esses wha t is wor king wher e, how and why, with disa g g r eg a tion by g ender and other socia l str a ta ) (2 0 1 1 ) Docum ent com pleted and dissem ina ted 2 5 perso n s tra i n ed in th e use of cl i m a t e a n a l o gu es, ; a ca se stu d y on usi n g a n a l o gu es for glo b a l wh ea t a d a p t a t i o n un d erw a y I n t ervi ew s a n d worksh o p s co n d u ct ed in Koch i el , Ken ya to test th e Soci a l R et u rn of In vest m en t a p p ro a ch (S R OI) R egio n a l pol i cy m a p p i n g a n d scen a ri o s qu a n t i fi ca t i o n excerci se in i t i a t ed Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed 0 2 perso n s fro m th e regio n tra i n ed on th e use/a p p l i ca t i o n of th e an a l o gu e too l Tools and g uidelines developed, reviewed and made publicly ava ila ble M ilestone 1. 1 . 1 . 6 *Tools and g uidelines developed to suppor t the selection (and / or maintena nce) of the most appr opr ia te water stor a g e options and/ or their com bina tions for river basin developm ent pla nning under conditions of incr ea sing clim a te var ia bility; Reviews of tools and g uidelines, including links to individua l g uidelines and access to tools (2 0 1 3 ) IWMI: I nventor y, eva lua tion of pr evious studies on hydr o-g eolog y of the reg ion, socio-econom ic sur veys , geo-physica l sur veys, hydr og eolog ica l modeling , RS/G I S ana lysis, field mea sur em ents and sur veys. O utout: Im pr oved under sta nding of g r oundwa ter recha r g e and mana g em ent under existing and projected climate variability and land management – with r ecom m enda tion for im pr oved g r oundwa ter mana g em ent as ada pta tion mea sur e to clim a te cha ng e A num ber of loca l univer sities and NAR ES in 12 countr ies in sub-Sa ha r a n Afr ica ICRAF : O utputs: 1) W or kshop repor t on Ag r ofor estr y species for far m ing system s and reduced soil er osion under clim a te cha ng e ; 2) Paper on ada pta tion potentia l of ag r ofor estr y species under clim a te cha ng e; 3) G uidebook for sm a llholder s with candida te ada pta tion pr a ctices U NDP-G EF, U niver sity of G ötting en, BM Z , Z ALF, W W F; UNEP; V AAS Two tr a ining s (2 0 1 1 , 20 1 2 ) deliver ed eng a g ing 25 par ticipa nts; min 2 videos pr oduced; excha ng es convened eng a g ing far m er s in 2 reg ions M a ps dem onstr a ting the potentia l for g r oundwa ter exploita tion, which take adequa te account of uncer ta inty Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed 1 5 0 8 0 M ilestone 1. 1 . 2 . 1 *New knowledg e developed on (1 ) the potentia l applica tion dom a ins for ag r icultur a l pr a ctices, technolog ies and policies (including maps), and (2 ) best mea ns of tr a nsfer r ing these technolog ies and ensur ing their adoption; finding s synthesized and pr esented in repor t and jour na l ar ticles (2 0 1 2 ) Synthesis repor t and jour na l ar ticles com pleted and dissem ina ted I FPR I (G loba l Futur es Project), SI M LESA Project (Afr ica ) C SI SA pr oject (I G P-Asia ), II TA, IC AR DA, IC AR , EI AR , KAR I , UM B -U SA, UM B - Nor wa y Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Output 1.1.2 Building of reg iona l and nationa l capa cities to pr oduce and com m unica te appr opr ia te ada pta tion and mitig a tion str a teg ies for pr og r essive clim a te cha ng e at the nationa l level (e. g . thr oug h NAPAs) M ilestone 1. 1 . 1 . 7 *(2 0 1 2 ) Assessm ent of the potentia l for exploita tion of g r ound water for cr op pr oduction in at lea st thr ee basins I W M I , W R I -G ha na , PI K, Z EF, M RC M ilestone 1. 1 . 2 . 3 Tr a ining wor kshop(s) or g a nized and and videos pr oduced on the use of the Ana log ue methodolog y ( (for exa m ining both spa tia l and tem por a l ana log ues based on multiple clim a te pr ojections; see 1. 1 . 1 . 2 ). Eng a g em ent of key IG P sta keholder s such as nationa l univer sities, NAR C , IC AR (DW R ), BAR C , NG O s; Far m er excha ng es convened am ong ana log ue sites (2 0 1 1 , 20 1 2 ) 80 CIMMYT : C ha r a cter iza tion of institutiona l ar r a ng em ents and policies tha t enha nce the ada ptive capa city of the resour ce-poor to adopt new maize and whea t far m ing pr a ctices, str a teg ies and beha vior s to reduce their vulner a bility ͻ Scoping study for characterization of climateͲadaptation options in maize a nd whea t pr oduction system s in tar g et reg ions ͻ Identify coping and adaptation strategies of farmers and the poor to manage futur e clim a te outcom es SI M LESA Pr oject (Afr ica ); C SI SA pr oject (I G P- Asia ), M asAg r o (I NI FAP, SAG AR PA; IITA, IC AR DA, IC AR , EI AR , KAR I , UM B -U SA, UM B -Nor wa y ICRAF: U nder sta nding of institutiona l ar r a ng em ents, policies and mecha nism s tha t enha nce the ada ptive capa city of resour ce-poor households to adopt new far m ing pr a ctices, str a teg ies and beha viour s tha t reduce their vulner a bility to C C Harvard, CCAFS, KARI; MONRE; CERED; COMART ICRAF : C ha r a cter iza tion of clim a te ada pta tion options in tar g et reg ions. O utput: Paper on the Role of Loca l Institutions in Ada pta tion to C lim a te Extr em es in M ounta in Yunna n W WF; UNEP; VAAS ICRISAT :M ini-cor e/r efer ence/ associa tion panels of IC R I SAT manda te cr ops phenotyped for hea t and oher clim a te cha ng e ada ptive tr a its AR I : Univer sity W ester n Austr a lia ICARDA : I dentify and pr om ote str a teg ies and methods of dr oug ht mitig a tion and pr epa r edness for pr og r essive clim a te cha ng e conditions. O utput: G uidelines and methods NAR S, AR I , Developm ent or g a niza tions, Policy maker s, O ther C G C enter s ILRI : Data assem bly (including system s and the ana lytica l fr a m ewor k), ana lysis and synthesis. O utput: Docum enta tion of futur e vulner a bility of livestock system s g loba lly to tar g et inter ventions I NR A-led consor tium of 27 par tner s M ilestone 1. 1 . 3 . 2 W eb-ba sed pla tfor m esta blished (Ada pta tion and M itig a tion Knowledg e Networ k) to sha r e and exchange knowledge, linking farmers’ r ea lities and exper iences on the g r ound with multiple and com bined resea r ch outputs (2 0 1 1 ) Pla tfor m developed and made publicly ava ila ble (cf http://www. sa c. a c. uk/clim a techa ng e/fa r m ing for a b etter clim a te/) Num ber of unique g eog r a phic loca tions, wher e individua l and multi site tr ia ls ar e car r ied out; assessm ent of rela ted infor m a tion and meta da ta collected; and excha ng e of der ived infor m a tion Ada pta tion and M itig a tion Knowledg e Networ k (AM KN) officia lly launched; com pletion of the pr oof of concept as a g eor efer enced ag g r eg a tor of clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion and mitig a tion infor m a tion. Deliver a bles: Tr a ining of C C AFS sta ff for its maintena nce and content cur a tion, and desig n of a roa dm a p for the fur ther developm ent of the pla tfor m . I C T-KM Co m p l et ed Word Fish : Identifica tion and appr a isa l of ada pta tion options in V ietna m aqua tic ag r icultur a l system s, including econom ic ana lysis and tr a de off ana lysis (2 0 1 1 output). The methods developed her e will be used in Bang la desh and M ali (2 0 1 2 ) W or ldFish, M C D V ietna m , C antho Univer sity, ESSP par tner s IHDP/Z EF Univer sity of Bonn or /a nd SEA STAR T RC Word Fish : Review of ada pta tion exper iences and options in coa sta l and aqua tic food pr oduction system s. O utput (2 0 1 2 ): Dra ft Book cha pter s for Ear thsca n (publica tion in 20 1 2 ). Im pr ove under sta nding and knowledg e of existing and potentia l ada pta tion str a teg ies in coa sta l and aqua tic food pr oduction system s ESSP/ C C AFS, UEA uilding pathways for impact in the IGP – seconded staff member to facilitate connections to major developm ent activities for testing and upsca ling technolog ies and pr a ctices W or ld Bank Study of socia l and cultur a l bar r ier s to ada pting thr oug h far m er excha ng es based on ana log ous clim a tes; under sta nding socia l and cultur a l per ceptions of futur e clim a tes (thr oug h reg iona l funds) O pen com petitive call to sta r t by O ct 20 1 1 1 0 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 Pilot testing of ada pta tion options for East Afr ica thr oug h system level modelling using biophysica l inputs fr om tr ia l sites data ba se com bined with socio-econom ic models (thr oug h EA reg iona l funds) To be deter m ined 8 0 CIAT : Developm ent of g ender -sensitivity par ticipa tor y methods for g r ounding clim a te cha ng e model results to com m unity level decision making pr ocesses tha t addr ess food secur ity issues O xfa m ; C RS; Lea r ning Allia nce; Susta ina ble Food Lab V ideo testim onia ls pr oduced and dissem ina ted thr oug h the website C ontinued developm ent of video testim onia ls for each reg ion on g ender - specific ada pta tion and mitig a tion str a teg ies, ada ptive capa city, coping mecha nism s and indig enous knowledg e I C T/KM and loca l NG O par tner s 5 7 , 5 2 0 2 0 3 0 Developing and testing clim a te ada pta tion tools in sm a llholder ag r icultur e thr oug h com m unity based action resea r ch C om petitive call tar g eting nationa l and loca l level actor s; selection cr iter ia to be developed 4 0 Co m p l et ed for sel ect ed fa rm i n g syst em s (m a i z e a n d wh ea t syst em s). Gen era l fra m ew o rk for in st i t u t i o n a l a rra n gem en t s a n d th ei r rol e in ad a p t a t i o n bei n g fin a l i sed in ea rl y 201 2 . Pa rt n er orga n i z a t i o n s co n t ra ct ed (G reen w i ch Un i versi t y a n d Oxfo rd un i versi t y/Ad el a i d e Un i versi t y); in i t i a l sit es sel ect ed ; pot en t i a l loca l pa rt n ers id en t i fi ed a n d prel i m i n a ry fiel d visi t s pla n n ed for Ap ri l in Nep a l , Gh a n a a n d Ta n z a n i a . Fu rt h er pop u l a t i o n of th e pla t fo rm a n d offi ci a l l y la u n ch ed a ft er co m p l et i o n of th e pro o f of co n cep t . Tra i n i n g of CCAF S sta ff for its ma i n t en a n ce a n d co n t en t cu ra t i o n , a n d desi gn of a roa d m a p for th e fu rt h er devel o p m en t of th e pla t fo rm a s a Output 1.1.4 Testing of par ticipa tor y methods tha t ar e sensitive to g ender , livelihoods categ or ies and other socia l differ entia tor s, to apply g loba lly M ilestone 1. 1 . 3 . 1 *Docum ent pr oduced tha t synthesizes institutiona l ar r a ng em ents, policies and mecha nism s for im pr oving the ada ptive capa city of ag r icultur a l sector actor s (addr esses wha t is wor king wher e, how and why, with disa g g r eg a tion by g ender and other socia l str a ta ) (2 0 1 1 ) Docum ent com pleted and dissem ina ted M ilestone 1. 1 . 4 . 2 V ideo testim onia ls pr oduced on g ender -specific far m er ada pta tion and mitig a tion str a teg ies (including indig enous knowledg e, coping mecha nism s and cur r ent cha lleng es) in 1-3 sites in each of the 3 initia l tar g et reg ions (2 0 1 1 , 20 1 2 ) M ilestone 1. 1 . 4 . 1 Socia lly disa g g r eg a ted par ticipa tor y methods tested for g r ounding clim a te cha ng e model results to com m unity-level decision making pr ocesses tha t addr ess food secur ity issues (2 0 1 4 ) Toolbox ava ila ble and dissem ina ted Objective 1.2 Develop breeding strategies for addressing abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatic conditions, variability and extremes, including novel climates Co n tra ct sign ed with Un ivers ity of Ad ela id e to stu d y so cia l an d cu ltu ra l b a rriers to ad a p tin g th ro u gh fa rmer ex ch a n ges b a s ed on an a lo go u s in Nep a l V i d eo test i m o n i a l s a n d fiel d ph o t o gra p h s up l o a d ed on web si t e Co n t ra ct sign ed wit h Agh rym et to tra i n regio n a l sta keh o l d ers a n d su p p o rt test i n g a n d im p l em en t a t i o n of th e FoTF in at lea st 2 vil l a ges in WA Pa rt i ci p a t o ry Act i o n R esea rch in i t i a t ed in Ea st ern Pro vi n ce a n d Nya n d o , Ken ya Tw o vid eo pro d u ct i o n un d erw a y in Gh a n a a n d Ma l i R egio n a l pol i cy m a p p i n g a n d scen a ri o s qu a n t i fi ca t i o n excerci se in i t i a t ed I d en tifica tio n of mo d el fa rmers for co ll a b o ra tio n on th e MICC A in itia tive; 4 regio n a l p a rtn ers su p p o rted to pa rticip a te in th e ICC CA D Co u rs e an d Co n feren ce on Co mmu n ity b a s ed Ad a p ta tio n to Clima te Ch a n ge h eld in Dh a k a , Ba n gla d es h Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Outcome 1.2: Strategies for addressing abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climate change, variability and extremes, including novel climates mainstreamed among the majority of the international research agencies who engage with CCAFS, and by national agencies in at least 12 countries O utput 1. 2 . 1 Under sta nding and eva lua ting the response of differ ent var ieties/cr ops to clim a te cha ng e in tim e and spa ce, and g ener a ting com pr ehensive str a teg ies for cr op im pr ovem ent thr oug h a com bina tion of modelling , exper t consulta tion and sta keholder dia log ue Co m p l et ed M ethods tested and dissem ina ted M ilestone 1. 1 . 3 . 3 *Ada pta tion option por tfolio (tool box) for aqua cultur e system s, options identified and dissem ina ted in V ietna m , tool box dissem ina ted in Bang la desh. Building capa city by cr ea ting infor m a tion and wor king in par tner ships. (2 0 1 1 ) Co m p l et ed M ilestone 1. 2 . 1 . 1 Resea r ch and policy or g a niza tions actively eng a g ed in setting resea r ch pr ior ities; one reg iona l br eeding str a teg y wor kshop involving reg iona l decision-m a king and pr ior ity setting bodies deliver ed in each of 3 initia l tar g et reg ions (2 0 1 1 ) W or kshops held eng a g ing 10 -1 5 par ticipa nts repr esenting major reg iona l and inter na tiona l br eeding or g a niza tions and decision-m a king and pr ior ity setting bodies. List of resea r ch and policy or g a nisa tions tha t have com m ented on, and contr ibuted to, the resea r ch desig n Eng a g em ent with reg iona l cr op im pr ovem ent institutions to identify potentia l im pr ovem ent scena r ios and beg in to incor por a te into models (r eg iona l wor kshops funded with reg iona l funds) Loca l par tner s in thr ee reg ions; IG P: IC AR , IC R I SAT, C I AT and II TA in EA 4 0 2 0 Co m p l et ed On e regio n a l breed i n g stra t egy worksh o p orga n i sed in Eh t i o p i a On e regio n a l cro p breed i n g 'w o rksh o p hel d in Et h i o p i a En ga gem en t wit h breed i n g in st i t u t i o n s for fou r cro p s (b a n a n a , bea n s, rice a n d sorgh u m ) co m p l et ed th ro u gh a worksh o p I Et h i o p i a , in cl u d i n g resea rch ers fro m a ll ta rget regio n s. C ontinued developm ent of cr op modelling appr oa ches for major cr ops to eva lua te im pa cts and run scena r io ana lysis (e. g . cr op im pr ovem ent scena r ios). To include initia l wor k on com bining niche-ba sed modelling with cr op modelling . Developm ent of niche-ba sed modelling for other major cr ops of the reg ions of im por ta nce to reg iona l food secur ity (in coor dina tion with Them es 4 and 1) Univer sity of Leeds and C I AT 4 0 2 0 ICARDA thr oug h C O -FU NDI NG : Develop modelling appr oa ches to eva lua te the im pa cts of clim a te cha ng e and the effects of ada pta tion technolog ies such as supplem enta l ir r ig a tion and water har vesting on water ava ila bility for cr ops and their pr oductivity under deca da l futur es fr om 20 2 0 to 20 5 0 . O utput: a valida ted cr op model . NAR S, AR I , M eteo. O r g a niza tions, O ther C G C enter s C ofina ncing C G I AR -AfDB ada pta tion resea r ch wor k on 4 com m odity cr ops, rice, cassa va , whea t and maize in reg iona l mem ber countr ies I I TA, IC AR DA, Afr ica R ice and loca l par tner s TBD 3 0 3 0 I m pr oved under sta nding of tem per a tur e thr esholds used in cr op models U niver sity of Leeds 1 6 0 C olla tion of reg iona l yield data for cr op model calibr a tion and valida tion for thr ee reg ions (thr oug h reg iona l funds and in colla bor a tion with Them e 4)   Na tiona l par tner s to be identified by Reg iona l Facilita tor s 2 0 2 0 C ontinued developm ent of clim a te pr ojections, with other them es, including the identifica tion of G C M data for use in C C AFS and the consolida tion of downsca led clim a te sur fa ces (esp. Them e 4) Equip, Ag M I P, UoL,  C I AT, ILR I , IFPR I , C I P 1 0 (I ncor por a tion of pest and disea se models into other cr op and cr opping system s models TB D pending results of white paper Decem ber 2 0 1 0 6 0 CIMMYT : Under sta nding the distr ibution, pr eva lence and epidem iolog y of maize and whea t insect-pests and disea ses and develop tools to for eca st cha ng es in rang e and sever ity of clim a te-induced biotic str esses. Africarice: Upda ting RI DEV , which is a rice physiolog y model for (1 ) on-fa r m decision suppor t, (2 ) reg iona l risk scena r io mapping and (3 ) study of g enotypic differ ences W U R , M AR I CIP: User -fr iendly g eospa tia l pota to & Sweet pota to models. O utput: Softwa r e conta ining C I P-developed routines for daily clim a te g ener a tor s (tem per a tur e & rainfa ll), and for cor r ecting daily rainfa ll estim a ted by TRM M downloa da ble fr om the M P7 web-site (an adva nced beta ver sion);  Prelim ina r y suita bility maps for selected pota to and sweet pota to var ieties and cultiva r s SENAMHI – National meteorology Θ Hydr olog y ser vices Per u & Bolivia EMBRAPA. B r a silia n CAAS MP3 -R TB ; NAR I S in Tar g et countr ies M P3 -R TB C o-lea der ship M icha el Ding khun + (M oU with C I R AD) 4 5 CIMMYT: Analysis of the effects of clim a te cha ng e on g r owth and yields of maize; Knowledg e of the effects of hig h C O 2 and hea t str ess on maize cr op phenolog y, pla nt functions and yields C ha r a cter iza tion of hea t str ess toler a nce mecha nism (s) in maize and identifica tion of mor pho-physiolog ica l tr a its suita ble as selection cr iter ia in br eeding for hea t str ess C I M M YT, AR I s (USDA-AR S, NAR ES in SSA (Ethiopia , Kenya , Z im ba bwe), Asia (I ndia , Nepa l, Bang la desh, Pakista n, souther n C hina ), and LAC (M exico) ICARDA : Selecting salt-toler a nt for a g es and rang ela nd species. O utput by 20 1 5 ! NAR s CIMMYT: Under sta nding the distr ibution, pr eva lence and epidem iolog y of maize insect-pests and disea ses and develop tools to for eca st cha ng es in rang e and sever ity of clim a te-induced biotic str esses C I M M YT, AR I s (USDA-AR S, NAR ES in SSA (Ethiopia , Kenya , Z im ba bwe), Asia (I ndia , Nepa l, Bang la desh, Pakista n, souther n C hina ), and LAC (M exico) New versi o n for cca fs-cl i m a t e. o rg port a l rea d y in cl u d i n g da t a pro d u ced a t IL R I /I F PR I a n d ou t p u t s fro m PR ECI S ; CMIP3 pro ject i o n s rea d y to be ad d ed to th e port a l (in fra st ru ct u re issu e); CMIP5 cl i m a t e da t a dow n l o a d ed a n d rea d y to be pro cessed (i.e. dow n sca l ed ). Eco Cro p m od el ca l i b ra t ed a n d used to pred i ct th e im p a ct s of cl i m a t e ch a n ge on sorgh u m , ba rl ey a n d ca ssa va . GL AM cro p m od el ru n s for In d i a n Wh ea t . Pa rt n ers co u l d not sta rt th i s du e to tech n i ca l a n d ad m i n issu es R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted at 3 major inter na tiona l meeting s; Repor t and policy br iefs downloa ded 20 0 tim es fr om web por ta l R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed R egio n a l yiel d da t a co l l a t i o n un d erw a y for five co u n t ri es; Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pa rt i ci p a t i o n in th e Multinational CGIAR – S u p p o rt to Agri cu l t u ra l R esea rch : Form u l a t i o n Worksh o p held in Ib a d a n , Nigeri a Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed M ilestone 1. 2 . 1 . 4 Deta iled cr op-by-cr op str a teg ies and pla ns of action for cr op im pr ovem ent developed, incor por a ting por tfolio of nationa l, reg iona l and g loba l pr ior ities; finding s pr esented in sum m a r y repor t (2 0 1 5 ) R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted C I M M YT, AR I s (USDA-AR S, Swiss Feder a l Institute of Technolog y, Texa s A & M Univer sity, Univ. of Bolog na , Ita ly), NAR ES in SSA, Asia [ C hinese Academ y of Ag r icultur a l Sciences (C AA S), Yunna n Academ y of Ag r icultur a l Sciences (YAA S), India n C ouncil of Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch (I C AR ), Indonesia n M ilestone 1. 2 . 3 . 1 Policy recom m enda tions pr ovided to nationa l ag encies, policy maker s and key actor s in the ag r icultur a l sector on how to tar g et str a teg ies to ena ble equita ble access to br eeding mater ia ls and str a teg ies by differ ent socia l g r oups (e. g . pastor a lists, fisher s, ur ba n far m er s) and by wom en and men (2 0 1 5 ) Output 1.2.2 Breeding str a teg ies dissem ina ted to key nationa l ag encies and resea r ch par tner s Output 1.2.3 Differ entia l im pa ct on differ ent socia l g r oups of str a teg ies for addr essing abiotic and biotic str esses induced by futur e clim a te cha ng e, var ia bility and extr em es ar e identified, eva lua ted and dissem ina ted CIMMYT: Ana lysis of the effects of clim a te cha ng e on g r owth and yield of maize & whea t; W hea t ar ea s/ countr ies vulner a ble to incr ea sed clim a te var ia bility and clim a te cha ng e mapped M aize ar ea s/ countr ies hig hly vulner a ble to incr ea sed fr equency of extr em e clim a te events and ecosystem distur ba nce mapped CIMMYT : Ana lysis of the effects of clim a te cha ng e on g r owth and yield of whea t; initia tion of hea t toler a nce scr eening (I G P) ; Knowledg e of the effects of hig h C O 2 and hea t str ess on whea t cr op phenolog y, pla nt functions and yields C ha r a cter iza tion of hea t str ess toler a nce mecha nism (s) in whea t and identifica tion of mor pho-physiolog ica l tr a its suita ble as selection cr iter ia in br eeding for hea t str ess toler a nce M ilestone 1. 2 . 1 . 3 Rang e of cr op modeling appr oa ches (to infor m br eeding ) developed and eva lua ted for biotic and abiotic constr a ints for the per iod 20 2 0 to 20 5 0 ; finding s pr esented in sum m a r y repor t and at key sta keholder s' meeting s ; *including modelling appr oa ches to eva lua te the im pa cts of clim a te cha ng e and the effects of ada pta tion technolog ies such as supplem enta l ir r ig a tion and water har vesting on water ava ila bility for cr ops and their pr oductivity under deca da l futur es fr om 20 2 0 to 20 5 0 (2 0 1 3 ) ICARDA (thr oug h C O -FU NDI NG ): Assessm ent of the im pa ct of clim a te cha ng e on cr opping patter ns, rur a l incom e and food secur ity in in dr y ar ea s with pr ior ity g iven to most vulner a ble countr ies I FPR I , NAR S` CIAT : PV S/PPB ; Testing field selection and data collection. Differ entia ting am ong fem a le and male bea n var iety pr efer ences in a rang e of dyna m ic scena r ios (low/hig h str ess; mar ket-dr iven/subsistence) Pa n Afr ica n Bea n Resea r ch Allia nce (PAB R A) Kenya , Rwa nda , Bur undi and M ala wi CIAT : Developm ent of deta iled pr ior ities and str a teg ies for br eeding of at lea st 4 crops C I P; Biover sity Inter na tiona l; NAR s; reg iona l br eeding bodies; G I PB ICRISAT :  Phenotyping mini-cor e/r efer ence ger m pla sm collections for ada ptive tr a its and vir tua l cr op modelling of tr a its. O utput: C or e/r efer ence collections of one manda te species phenotyped under /a t ana log ue envir onm ent/loca tions as an exem pla r I nter na tiona l C enter for Tr opica l Ag r icultur e (C I AT), C olom bia ; Institute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Institute, Papua new G uinea (PNG ); Institut d'Econom ie Rur a le, M ali; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India ; M illennium Seed Bank, UK; Bota nic G ar den C onser va tion Inter na tiona l (BG C I ), UK; mem ber s of the M usa Taxonom y Advisor y G r oup; Univer sity of Philippines Los Banos (UPLB), Philippines; KULeuven, Belg ium ; C I ALC A par tner s; Sem ong ok Ag r icultur e Resea r ch C entr e (AR C ), Sar a wa k M ala ysia ; PRO I NPA, Bolivia ICARDA : G ene mining in cer ea ls and food leg um es gene pools for resista nce to dr oug ht and hea t NAR S in dr oug ht and hea t pr one ar ea s, AR I ICARDA : Develop molecula r tools and methodolog ies to rapidly identify candida te g er m pla sm with tr a its useful for clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion NAR S, AR I , O ther C G center s ICARDA : Ana lyzing functiona l g enom ic mar ker s rela ted to the toler a nce of indig enous sheep to hea t str ess under ar id conditions APR I -Eg ypt, ILR I , FAO /I AEA joint division, Univer sity of G oetting en ICARDA : Develop cr op suita bility atla s of identified loca l var ieties conser ved in g eneba nks based on g eneba nk infor m a tion and envir onm enta l conditions using G eog r a phic Infor m a tion system (G I S) I FPR I ; BI G M /G R U ICARDA : Developm ent of the focused Identifica tion g er m pla sm Str a teg y (FI G S) to select best bets for ada pta tion to C C B r eeder s, cr op physiolog ists colla bor a tor s inside and outside IC AR DA  CIP: Developm ent of efficient scr eening methods for hea t toler a nt pota to R ur a l Developm ent Author ity of Kor ea Bioversity : Identifica tion of g enetic mater ia l conser ved in g eneba nks with potentia l ada ptive tr a its for clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion for bar ley, whea t, sweet pota to, tar o and rice Institute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Instutute, PNG ; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India ; Sem ong ok Ag r icultur e Resea r ch C entr e (AR C ), Sar a wa k M ala ysia ;PR O I NPA, Bolivia Bioversity : C rop suita ibility maps for 5 crops in East Afr ica , Indo G ang etic Pla ins, South Am er ica and South East Asia I nstitute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Instutute, PNG ; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India ; Sem ong ok Ag r icultur e Resea r ch C entr e (AR C ), Sar a wa k M ala ysia ;PR O I NPA, Bolivia CIP: Testing of dr oug ht and hea t toler a nt pota to and sweetpota to g er m pla sm C ontinua tion of far m er based exper im enta tion networ k in IG P depending on pr og r ess, and possible out sca ling to other reg ions (them e 1 cor e funds) B iover sity Inter na tiona l, IC AR , C I AT, PAU , other loca l par tner s in other reg ions. 5 0 Eva l u a t i o n work of gen et i c reso u rces id en t i fi ed germ p l a sm wit h novel tra i t s likel y to be of im p o rt a n ce for cl i m a t e ch a n ge a d a p t a t i o n , in cl u d i n g hea t tol era n t pot a t o , ch i ckp ea , gro u n d n u t , pea rl m il l et a cc essi o n s, dro u gh t tol era n t bea n gen o t yp es, a n d wa t er-l o ggi n g tol era n t fora ge germ p l a sm . W or kshops held with exper ts and pr oceeding s published. G ener a tion of a fra m ewor k under wa y and to be com pleted dur ing 20 1 2 . Fa r m er exper im enta tion networ k to test var ieta l and g er m pla sm ada pta tion esta blished at few pla ces in India and Nepa l Pa r tia lly com pleted R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted at 3 major inter na tiona l meeting s; Repor t and policy br iefs downloa ded 20 0 tim es fr om web por ta l Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed M ilestone 1. 3 . 1 . 2 *Appr oa ches, methods and tools for par ticipa tor y assessm ent of wher e and when biodiver sity rich pr a ctices facilita te ada pta tion to clim a te cha ng e reviewed ; finding s sum m a r ized in repor t (2 0 1 1 ) C onsulta tion wor kshops; repor t com pleted and dissem ina ted. num ber of com m unities and individua ls sur veyed, num ber of methods and tools tested M ilestone 1. 3 . 1 . 1 *Accessions identified with potentia l ada ptive tr a its for clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion for at lea st 5 prior ity cr ops using innova tive methods. M ethodolog y to select g eneba nk mater ia l ada pted to loca l cur r ent clim a te conditions and futur e clim a te shifts developed and tested and cr op suita bility atla ses for pr ior ity cr ops (as defined by fr a ction of tota l pr oduction accounted for ) pr oduced; finding s pr esented in repor ts and jour na l ar ticles (2 0 1 1 , 20 1 4 ) Output 1.3.1 New knowledg e, g uidelines and access to g er m pla sm ar e pr ovided for using g enetic and species diver sity to enha nce ada pta tion, pr oductivity and resilience to cha ng ing clim a te Objective 1.3 Identify and enhance deployment and conservation of species and genetic diversity for increased resilience and productivity under conditions resulting from climate change Outcome 1.3: Portfolio of information sources, guidelines and germplasm available for using genetic and species diversity to enhance adaptation and resilience to changing climate are adopted and up-scaled by national agencies in at least 20 countries and by international organization for the benefits of resource poor farmers R epor ts com pleted and dissem ina ted. Jour na l ar ticles published. Lists pr oduced (e. g . , ada pted loca l var ieties conser ved in g eneba nks; newly and alr ea dy collected dom estica ted and wild g er m pla sm ada pted to clim a te cha ng e). M ethodolog y developed and made publicly ava ila ble M ilestone 1. 2 . 3 . 1 Policy recom m enda tions pr ovided to nationa l ag encies, policy maker s and key actor s in the ag r icultur a l sector on how to tar g et str a teg ies to ena ble equita ble access to br eeding mater ia ls and str a teg ies by differ ent socia l g r oups (e. g . pastor a lists, fisher s, ur ba n far m er s) and by wom en and men (2 0 1 5 ) Bioversity: Genera l s t ra t egic f ra mework of pa rt ic ipa t ory approa c hes and met hods t o as s es s where and when biov ers it y ric h pra c t ic es f a c ilit a t e ada pt a t ion t o clima t e cha nge dev eloped t hrough int erna t iona l expert cons ult a t ion I nter na tiona l Union for C onser va tion of Natur e (I UC N), Switzer la nd; PRO I NPA, Bolivia ; LI-B I R D, Nepa l; M S Swa m ina tha n Resea r ch Founda tion, India ; G er m a n exper ts (incl. Prof. K. Ham m er ); FAO , the Inter na tiona l Tr ea ty on Pla nt G enetic Resour ces for Food and Ag r icultur e (I TPG R FA), Ita ly; Univer sity of Per ug ia , Ita ly; Univer sity of Sua ceva , Rom a nia ; NG O Peliti, G r eece; NG O ProSpecieR a r a , Switzer la nd; R. Z oug m or e- C C AFS, Nig er ; Univer sity G oetting en, G er m a ny; G I Z , G er m a ny; LUG V , Br a nder bur g , G er m a ny; AG PM /FAO , Ita ly; O r iG I n, Switzer la nd; Slow Food, G er m a ny; II TA, Nig er ia ). Bioversity: Ta ilor ing g ener a l methodolog ica l fr a m ewor k for testing out in nationa l contexts car r ied out thr oug h multi-sta keholder wor kshops held in Bolivia , India and Nepa l PR O I NPA, Bolivia ; M inistr y of Ag r icultur e, Bolivia , ; M inistr y of Envir onm ent, Bolivia ; LI- B I R D, Nepa l; M inistr y of Ag r icultur e, Nepa l; M S Swa m ina tha n Resea r ch Founda tion, India ; IC AR , India ; The Inter na tiona l Tr ea ty on Pla nt G enetic Resour ces for Food and Ag r icultur e (I TPG R FA), Ita ly; AG PM /FAO , Ita ly; O r iG I n, Switzer la nd). ICARDA: Evalua tion of g er m pla sm of cer ea ls and food leg um es for resista nce to insect pests and disea ses under var ia ble tem per a tur e reg im es  I PM resea r cher s and br eeder s at IC AR DA CIAT : Eva lua tion of dr oug ht-selected bea n g enotypes in contr a sting envir onm ents in Afr ica , Ethiopia n Institute of Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch (EI AR ); Kenya n Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Institute (KAR I ); Depa r tm ent of Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch and Technolog y of M ala wi (DAR T); Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch In Tanza nia (AR T); Dept. CIAT :  Eva lua tion of Brachiaria for a g e g r a ss hybr ids for their toler a nce to water log g ing . C O R PO I C A-C olom bia ; INTA-Nica r a g ua ; IDI AP- Pa na m a CIAT : Eva lua tion of her ba ceous for a g e leg um es for their toler a nce to water log g ing Em br a pa Bioversity : M ultiloca tion tr ia ls of over 30 0 loca l var ieties of 5 prior ity cr ops car r ied out in at lea st 3 differ ent clim a tic zones in East Afr ica and Indog a ng etic Pla ins and in PNG , with par ticipa tion of loca l far m er s Institute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Institute, PNG Bioversity: I nitia tion of com m unity-ba sed par ticipa tor y docum enta tion/ m onitor ing of tar g et species/NU S and their deploym ent to cope with clim a te cha ng e in pr oject sites acr oss India , Nepa l and Bolivia ; PRO I NPA, Bolivia ; M inistr y of Ag r icultur e, Bolivia , ; M inistr y of Envir onm ent, Bolivia ; LI- B I R D, Nepa l; M inistr y of Ag r icultur e, Nepa l; M S Swa m ina tha n Resea r ch Founda tion, India ; IC AR , India ; and possibly: Inter na tiona l Tr ea ty on Pla nt G enetic Resour ces for Food and Ag r icultur e (I TPG R FA), Ita ly; AG PM /FAO , Ita ly M ilestone 1. 3 . 1 . 5 . Knowledg e developed on distr ibution of loca l seed mater ia l (seed system s) and its effectiveness in clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion str a teg ies; finding s sum m a r ized in repor ts, case study nar r a tives and seed system maps. (2 0 1 3 ) Bioversity : Knowledg e on distr ibution of loca l seed mater ia l (seed system s) g ather ed and its effectiveness in clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion str a teg ies docum ented I nstitute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Instutute, PNG ; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India ; Sem ong ok Ag r icultur e Resea r ch C entr e (AR C ), Sar a wa k M ala ysia ;PR O I NPA, Bolivia Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Bioversity : M usa AAB x clim a te cha ng e modeled in Latin Am er ica using modified EC O C R O P and clim a te cha ng e scena r ios; maps of bana na pr oduction ar ea s in Asia and Afr ica based on par ticipa tor y bana na editor ; options for modeling M usa pest and disea se response to clim a te cha ng e reviewed; pa r a m eter s synthesized for 3 pests and disea ses for modeling effect of clim a te on incidence M U SALAC , BAR NESA, BAPNET (including par ticipa ting countr ies by reg ion: LAC -C osta Rica , Br a zil, C olom bia , Pana m a ; ESA - Ug a nda , Rwa nda , Kenya ; W C A G ha na , Nig er ia , C ote d'I voir e, C am er oon; APO - India , C hina , Taiwa n, Austr a lia , Indonesia ); C I R AD; Inter na tiona l C enter for Tr opica l Ag r icultur e (I I TA), Nig er ia ; C I AT, C olom bia ; Univer sity of W ester n Austr a lia ; Queensla nd Depa r tm ent of Prim a r y Industr ies, Austr a lia ; C aca oNet, C O G ENT (including par ticipa ting countr ies by reg ion: LAC - C osta Rica , Br a zil, Tr inida d, M exico; SSA - C ote d'I voir e, G ha na , Nig er ia , C am er oon, Tanza nia ; APO - India , Sr i Lanka , Indonesia , Philippines, M ala ysia ), C entr e de coopér a tion inter na tiona le en recher che ag r onom ique pour le développem ent (C I R AD), Fr a nce; II TA, Nig er ia ; C I AT, C olom bia ; C entr o Ag r onóm ico Tr opica l de Investig a ción y Enseña nza (C ATI E), C osta Rica ; South Pacific C om m ission (SPC ), Fiji; United Sta tes Depa r tm ent of Ag r icultur e (USDA), USA; Univer sity of Queensla nd, Austr a lia ; Rea ding Univer sity, UK; W or kshops held with exper ts and pr oceeding s published. G ener a tion of a fra m ewor k under wa y and to be com pleted dur ing 20 1 2 . Fa r m er exper im enta tion networ k to test var ieta l and g er m pla sm ada pta tion esta blished at few pla ces in India and Nepa l Pa r tia lly com pleted Pa r tia lly com pleted Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed M ilestone 1. 3 . 1 . 3 . *Eva lua tion of g er m pla sm of cer ea ls and food leg um es for resista nce to insect pests and disea ses under var ia ble tem per a tur e reg im e; str a teg y for tar g eted collection for sam pling landr a ces and wild rela tives in dr y and hot ar ea s (I C AR DA) (2 0 1 2 ) Eva lua tion and str a teg y published M ilestone 1. 3 . 1 . 2 *Appr oa ches, methods and tools for par ticipa tor y assessm ent of wher e and when biodiver sity rich pr a ctices facilita te ada pta tion to clim a te cha ng e reviewed ; finding s sum m a r ized in repor t (2 0 1 1 ) C onsulta tion wor kshops; repor t com pleted and dissem ina ted. num ber of com m unities and individua ls sur veyed, num ber of methods and tools tested M ilestone 1. 3 . 1 . 4 . M ethods and tools for par ticipa tor y monitor ing of deploym ent of biodiver sity and knowledg e by com m unities for clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion tested out in at lea st 5 countr ies (including com m unity sur veys); finding s synthesized in repor t (2 0 1 2 ) M ulti loca tion tr ia ls of identified loca l var ieties car r ied out (2 0 1 4 ) M ilestone 1. 3 . 1 . 7 C lim a te cha ng e im pa ct on key g loba l com m odities (m a jor M usa g r oups, cocoa , coconut) and selected pest and disea ses modelled and reviewed by com m odity networ k countr y par tner s and possible response str a teg ies identified (2 0 1 5 ) B a se model ava ila ble and ada pted to specific com m odities; finding s ver ified by sta keholder s (C ATI E), C osta Rica ; South Pacific C om m ission (SPC ), Fiji; United Sta tes Depa r tm ent of Ag r icultur e (USDA), USA; Univer sity of Queensla nd, Austr a lia ; Rea ding Univer sity, UK; W or ld C ocoa Founda tion; APC C Bioversity: I dentifying ar ea s for futur e collecting missions, assessing dr oug ht toler a nce and incor por a ting eva lua tion data in the M usa G er m pla sm Infor m a tion System (M G I S) I nter na tiona l C entr e for Tr opica l Ag r icultur e (C I AT), C olom bia ; Institute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Instutute, Papua new G uinea (PNG ); Institut d'Econom ie Rur a le, M ali; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India ; M illenium Seed Bank, UK; Bota nic G ar den C onser va tion Inter na tiona l (BG C I ), UK; mem ber s of the M usa Taxonom y Advisor y G r oup; Univer sity of Philippines Los Banos (UPLB), Philippines; KULeuven, Belg ium ; C I ALC A par tner s; ICARDA: Monitor ing of popula tion cha ng es and ada pta tion of insect pests and disea ses of cer ea ls and food leg um es NAR S Sur vey of loca l and tr a ditiona l knowledg e of ada pta tion str a teg ies at the far m level thr oug h sur veys in tar g et reg ions C onsulta nt (I G P) and loca l par tner s (EA/W A) 7 0 5 0 5 0 Esta blishm ent of a monitor ing system of var ieta l selection under var ying clim a tes, initia lly in W est Afr ica Potentia lly C I R AD, possibly DI V ER SI TAS and other par tner s to be identified dur ing C ancun Science M eeting . IITA : Develop new g er m pla sm cata log ues on relea sed cassa va g er m pla sm . O utput: C ata log ue on II TA developed and relea sed cassa va g er m opla sm ava ila ble NC R R I in Nig er ia , SAR R NET in Souther n Afr ica   Bioversity: Socio econom ic sur vey of loca l far m er s under ta ken in at lea st 3 countr ies to docum ent indig enous knowledg e on cr op diver sity and ada pa tion to clim a te cha ng e. I nstitute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Instutute, PNG ; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India ; Sem ong ok Ag r icultur e Resea r ch C entr e (AR C ), Sar a wa k M ilestone 1. 3 . 2 . 3 Resea r ch and developm ent par tner s (especia lly young scientists) in at lea st 11 countr ies tr a ined in using new monitor ing and modelling tools for clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion for differ ent cr ops including under utilized species; outcom es sum m a r ized in repor t (2 0 1 3 ) Bioversity: Training of scientists and com m unity mem ber s on tools and methods for resea r ch on under utilized species R eg iona l Univer sities For um for C apa city Building in Ag r icultur e (RUFO R U M ), Ug a nda ; Inter na tiona l Founda tion for Science (I FS), Sweden; Afr ica n Networ k for Ag r icultur e, Ag r ofor estr y and Natur a l Resour ces Educa tion (ANAFE), Kenya ; Institut de Recher ché et de Développm ent sur la Biodiver sité des Pla ntes C ultivées, Ar om a tiques et M édicina les (I R DC AM ), Benin; Pla nt G enetic Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Bioversity: Q ua lity checking of the g eor efer ences in G ENESYS, SI NG ER , EUR I SC O tha t contr ibute to cr op suita bility Atla s and diver sity ana lysis Afr ica R ice, AV R DC , Univer sity C alifor nia Ber keley Bioversity: Develop tools and linka g es to Ag Tr ia ls website for G ENESYS, and im pr oved cr op ontolog y (meta da ta , tr a it nam es, etc) and define colla bor a tion with IC T-KM for the use of the ESR I & C IAT resour ces on the cloud for G ENESYS G C P-I B P;C I AT;I C T-KM Bioversity: Esta blish str a teg ic par tner ships to access data for diver sity ana lyses of C W R and NUS with G BI F and Sud Exper ts Pla ntes; test and applica tion of G BI f tools to g eneba nk data , extension of Dar winC or e G BI F, SEP, B G C I Bioversity: Collection and analysis of information on CGIAR centres’ and their partners’ acquisitions, uses and distributions of germplasm in the context of clim a te cha ng e, and of the policy factor s affecting g er m pla sm flows. C G I AR C enter s; Institute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Institute, PNG ; Institut d'Econom ie Rur a le, M ali; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India ICARDA : Develop str a teg ies for fast tr a ck testing and relea se of var ieties and rapid multiplica tion and dissem ina tion of ada pted var ieties to clim a te cha ng e. O utput: C onstr a ints of seed system s identified and appr opr ia te policies for m ula ted . Public and loca l pr iva te seed sector ICARDA : O r g a nize tar g eted collection for sam pling landr a ces and wild rela tives in dr y and hot ar ea s NAR S 3 yea rs a greem en t sign ed wit h CIR AD (co l l a b o ra t i o n wit h IR R I ) a im ed to i m p l em en t pa rt of th e agen d a of CCAF S (MD co -l i d ersh i p ob ject i ve 1.2 ) I n i t i a l 201 1 m il est o n e fu l l y co m p l et ed wit h a ba sel i n e da t a co l l ect ed a n d in i t i a l a n a l ysi s co m p l et ed . Furt h er a n a l ysi s a n d pu b l i ca t i o n is on goi n g a n d pen d i n g for del i very of th e 201 4 m il est o n e. Tw o stu d i es docu m en t i n g loca l tra d i t i o n a l kn o w l ed ge on cl i m a t e risk m a n a gem en t co m p l et ed in IG P Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed (1 ) Su rvey of LTK un d erw a y; (2) A co n t ra ct wit h IUCN on usi n g M & E to stren gth en th e ad a p t i ve ca p a ci t y to CC of fa rm ers a n d in st i t u t i o n s in West Afri ca n co u n t ri es (B u rki n a Fa so , Gh a n a , Ma l i , Niger) M ilestone 1. 3 . 2 . 5 . G er m pla sm infor m a tion integ r a ted in g loba l infor m a tion system s including : (1 ) Data ba ses of pr ior ity collections aug m ented with g eor efer enced passpor t data and tr a it infor m a tion useful to the diver sity ana lysis for clim a te cha ng e im pa cts and ada pta tion effectively linked to g loba l system , (2 ) Accession level infor m a tion with qua lity g eor efer ences, (3 ) Data on duplica tion to g loba l collection and im por ta nt tr a it infor m a tion published in G ENESYS, (4 ) com plem enta r y data sour ces on wild species identified thr oug h G BI F, (5 ) tr a ining mater ia ls, (6 ) list of and infor m a tion on newly and alr ea dy collected g er m pla sm (dom estica ted and wild) ada pted to clim a te cha ng e; M ater ia ls of inter est safely duplica ted in G loba l C ollection and made ava ila ble (2 0 1 5 ) Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed M ilestone 1. 3 . 3 . 1 * Baseline sur vey and analysis of centers’ and partnersΖ a cquisitions, and distr ibutions of ada pted g er m pla sm car r ied out; C om pa r a tive sur vey and ana lysis conducted; finding s sum m a r ized in repor ts (2 0 1 1 , 20 1 4 ) R epor ts com pleted and dissem ina ted. Sur vey docum ents developed, Data collected, Dra ft repor ts cir cula ted or appr ova l/com m ent, Publica tion of repor ts Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed On e regio n a l fa rm ers co n su l t a t i ve worksh o p hel d by EAF F in Na i ro b i , Ken ya ; Soko i n e Un i versi t y of Agri cu l t u re co n t ra ct ed to un d ert a ke IK stu d y in Lu sh o t o ; Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Output 1.3.2 New infor m a tion, knowledg e, g uidelines and g er m pla sm ar e made ava ila ble to far m er s, br eeder s, loca l com m unities and scientists and pr om oted thr oug h knowledg e sha r ing , peer reviewed ar ticles, infor m a tion system s and media Output 1.3.3 Policies to ena ble access to and use of genetic resour ces for clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion resea r ch, and diffusion of ada pted g er m pla sm M ilestone 1. 3 . 2 . 2 . Far m er s' tr a ditiona l knowledg e on use of diver sity and clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion docum ented and made ava ila ble in at lea st 3 countr ies; finding s pr esented in data ba ses, repor ts and peer - reviewed ar ticle (2 0 1 3 ) Data ba ses pr oduced and made publicly ava ila ble; repor ts com pleted and dissem ina ted; jour na l ar ticles published M ilestone 1. 3 . 1 . 7 C lim a te cha ng e im pa ct on key g loba l com m odities (m a jor M usa g r oups, cocoa , coconut) and selected pest and disea ses modelled and reviewed by com m odity networ k countr y par tner s and possible response str a teg ies identified (2 0 1 5 ) B a se model ava ila ble and ada pted to specific com m odities; finding s ver ified by sta keholder s M ilestone 1. 3 . 3 . 2 . Policy g uidelines pr oduced for center s and par tner s to addr ess cha lleng es associa ted with obta ining , using and distr ibuting g er m pla sm as par t of clim a te cha ng e rela ted resea r ch (with par ticula r focus on addr essing cha lleng es associa ted with access and benefit sha r ing , IPR , biosa fety policies and laws) (2 0 1 2 G uidelines fina lized and distr ibuted to center s and par tner s Bioversity : Survey of centres’ practices in germplasm acquisitons and distr ibutions and how policies affect them . Literature review on Centre’s diffusion strategies for improved germplasm and the conditions for success or failur e. Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed M ilestone 1. 3 . 3 . 3 C ase studies docum ented of potentia l role of infor m a l seed system s for diffusion of ada pted g er m pla sm ; Ana lysis of institutions and policies tha t im pa ct on the flow of ada pted mater ia ls thr oug h those seed system s; Nationa l str a teg ies developed to im plem ent the Inter na tiona l Tr ea ty' s M ultila ter a l system on Access and Benefit-Sha r ing in 4 countr ies; Policy options pr oduced at nationa l, pr ovincia l and com m unity levels to im pr ove existing policies, loca l mana g em ent and seed system s to facilita te diffusion and upta ke of ada pted g er m pla sm (2 0 1 3 , 20 1 5 ) C ase studies, ana lysis, nationa l str a teg ies and policy options developed and dissem ina ted Bioversity : Selection of countr y par tner s tha t will be involved in Tr ea ty im plem enta tion wor k. Inception visits and initia l wor kshops. Prepa r a tion of tem pla te/s for par tner s to conduct stock-ta king studies on PG R FA and the implementation of the Treaty’s MLS. EM B R APA, Br a zil; Kenya n Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Institute (KAR I ), Kenya ; Univer sity of M ala ya , M ala ysia ; Instituto Naciona l de Investig a ciones Ag r icola (I NI A), Per u; M S Swa m ina tha n Resea r ch Founda tion, India ; Loca l Initia tive for Biodiver sity, Resea r ch and Developm ent (LI -B I R D), Nepa l; PRO I NPA, Bolivia ; Institute of Biodiver sity and C onser va tion, Ethiopia ; Nationa l Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch Institute, PNG ; Institut d'Econom ie Rur a le, M ali; India n C ouncil Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch, India Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed M ilestone 1. 3 . 3 . 4 *Technica l contr ibutions to inter na tiona l pr ocesses suppor t the developm ent of inter na tiona l policies ena bling access to and use of g enetic resour ces in clim a te cha ng e resea r ch and ada pta tion str a teg ies; Backg r ound paper s and policy br iefs developed for inter g over nm enta l meeting s including the C G R FA, ITPG R FA, C BD; jour na l ar ticle published on options to refor m inter na tiona l policies to reflect incr ea sed inter dependence of countr ies on G RFA as a result of clim a te cha ng e; Book published on assessing inter na tiona l policy options to suppor t collective pooling and facilita ted use of G RFA published (2 0 1 1 , 20 1 3 , 20 1 5 ) Pa per s, policy br iefs, Jour na l ar ticle and book published Bioversity: Pr oviding technica l inputs to releva nt inter na tiona l pr ocesses ena bling access to and use of g er m pla sm for clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion C G I AR C enter s; repr esenta tives of reg iona l g r oups attending inter g over nm enta l for a , secr eta r ia ts of releva nt inter na tiona l ag r eem ents Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Po l i cy bri efs a n d ba ckgro u n d docu m en t s gen era t ed for ITPG R F A a n d th e Com m i ssi o n on PG R F A, a n d sp eci a l sessi o n s hel d wit h key pol i cy m a kers a t in t ern a t i o n a l level . ( 201 1 Mil est o n e co m p l et ed ) M ilestone 2. 1 . 1 . 1 Repor t of pr ior ity knowledg e and methodolog y g aps pr oduced for index-ba sed risk tr a nsfer pr oducts; and Prog r a m value-a ddition and par tner ship str a teg y (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t and jour na l ar ticle com pleted and dissem ina ted R epor t on pr ior ity knowledg e and methodolog y g aps for index-ba sed risk tr a nsfer pr oducts; as well as Prog r a m value-a ddition and par tner ship str a teg y Senior Econom ist(s) W or king on Index Based Insur a nce (TB D) 3 0 Co m p l et ed An exper t wor kshop held, and a repor t pr oduced on "I ndex Insur a nce for M ana g ing C lim a te-R ela ted Ag r icultur a l Risk: Towa r d a Str a teg ic Resea r ch Ag enda . " The PI is doing fina l for m a tting befor e publishing thr oug h IFPR I . Theme 2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Objective 2.1 Identify and test innovations that enable rural communities to better manage climate-related risk and build more resilient livelihoods Outcome 2.1: Systematic technical and policy support by development agencies for farm- to community-level agricultural risk management strategies and actions that buffer against climate shocks and enhance livelihood resilience in at least 20 countries Output 2.1.1 Synthesized knowledg e and evidence on innova tive risk mana g em ent str a teg ies tha t foster resilient rur a l livelihoods and susta in a food secur e envir onm ent Output 1.3.4 Identifica tion and eva lua tion of the differ entia l roles of wom en and men, and other socia l g r oups, in str a teg ies for conser va tion and use of species and g enetic diver sity; and the im pa ct of those str a teg ies on those differ ent g r oups, ar e integ r a ted into knowledg e sha r ing and other activities to achieve outcom es M ilestone 2. 1 . 1 . 2 Synthesis repor t pr oduced on options and appr oa ches for reducing risk and enha ncing livelihood resilience thr oug h cultiva r , far m and livelihood diver sifica tion; modeling tool developed. *Docum enta tion of how ag r o- pa stor a lists ar e coping with clim a te risk in W est and Souther n Afr ica , and piloting options as to how they may cope with incr ea sed clim a te risk in the futur e  (I LR I ) *Review of ada pta tion exper iences and options in coa sta l and aqua tic food pr oduction system s (W or ldFish) * C ha r a cter iza tion of clim a te-r ela ted risk, and sur vey of cur r ent for m a l and infor m a l responses to risk with potentia l for tr a nsfer and up sca ling ; Upg r a de to the IC AR DA Ag r oclim a te Tool (I C AR DA) (2 0 1 2 ) O ne repor t and functiona l modeling tool com pleted and dissem ina ted; Ear thsca n book cha pter s (W or ldFish) C r itica l review of knowledg e on livelihood diver sifica tion str a teg ies for clim a te- r esilience B iover sity, W or ldFish. , other C G C enter s Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed R epor ts com pleted on how ag r o-pa stor a lists ar e coping with clim a te risk in W est and Souther n Afr ica (I LR I ). Risk mana g em ent and ada pta tion exper iences and options in coa sta l and aqua tic food pr oduction system s assessed and docum ented (W or ldFish). C lim a te-r ela ted risks and risk responses studied and docum ented, and Ag r oclim a te Tool upg r a ded to suppor t risk responses (I C AR DA). Biover sity was contr a cted late 20 1 1 for a system a tic review on diver sifica tion str a teg ies to build clim a te resilience, which will pr oduce a repor t and eng a g e a broa der com m unity in a pla nned wor kshop, but dela yed hir ing pr ocess within Biover sity dela yed the sta r t of the review. M ilestone 2. 1 . 1 . 3 Synthesis of ong oing wor k on ag r onom ic and NRM technolog ies for enha ncing resilience of ag r icultur e to clim a te var ia bility (2 0 1 2 ) C lim a te C ha ng e Ada pta tion and M itig a tion in Ag r icultur e Science W or kshop, Pla ya del C ar m en, M exico, 1-2 Decem ber 20 1 0 Log istics and facilita tion by C I AT. C o-funded with Them e 3. 5 4 Co m p l et ed The wor kshop was com pleted, all funds wer e spent, and repor t dissem ina ted in 20 1 0 . However , a dela y in C I AT invoicing C olum bia Univer sity caused funds to car r y over into 20 1 1 . M ilestone 2. 1 . 2 . 1 Fr a m ewor k repor t pr oduced and pr ototype far m household modeling tools developed for eva lua ting im pa cts of clim a te risk and risk mana g em ent inter ventions on livelihood resilience (2 0 1 1 ) Fr a m ewor k repor t and pr ototype tools com pleted and dissem ina ted Develop a fra m ewor k and methodolog y for modeling risk and resilience at the far m /household level I n colla bor a tion with Them e 4. 2 and multiple C G center s 2 5 Un co m p l et ed Them e 2 is colla bor a ting closely with 4. 1 on household modeling . T2 colla bor a ted with 4. 1 on a review (“A review of farm household models with a focus on food secur ity, clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion, risk management and mitigation”) that took longer tha n anticipa ted, and tha t will infor m colla bor a tive household modeling tool and fr a m ewor k developm ent in 20 1 2 . M ilestone 2. 1 . 3 . 1 Par ticipa tor y pilot dem onstr a tions initia ted to develop and eva lua te cur r ent and im pr oved risk mana g em ent str a teg ies and actions with rur a l com m unities at benchm a r k loca tions in 2 countr ies each in EA, W A and IG P (2 0 1 1 ) Pilot dem onstr a tion sites and par tner s in 6 countr ies I G P, EA, W A: Esta blish a networ k of par ticipa tor y pilot dem onstr a tion pr ojects with rur a l com m unities to develop and eva lua te risk mana g em ent inter ventions I G P: BAR C , NAR C , IC AR , C olum bia water centr e, IRI , Sta te ag r icultur a l univer sities W A, EA: O ther s TBD with Reg iona l Facilita tor s (inc. com petitive calls in East Afr ica ) 2 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 0 Co m p l et ed On e d ia gn o s is stu d y on th e in tro d u ctio n an d op era tio n a li za tio n of a wea th er In d ex -b a s ed Cro p In s u ra n ce Sch eme in Gh a n a ; On e field an d in s titu tio n a l ass es s men t Pa rt ic ipa t ory Ac t ion Res ea rc h on crop and liv es t oc k int erv ent ions init ia t ed in N ya ndo, Bora na , L us hot o, Raka i and Hoima ;I C RI SAT cont ra c t ed to undert a ke projec t on tes t ing the des ign and communic a t ion of downs c a led, proba bilis t ic Th ree sites in Pu n ja b , Bih a r an d in pla in s of Nep a l esta b li s h ed for pa rticip a to ry eva lu a tio n of ris k ma n a gemen t in terven tio n s Pa r ticipa tor y pilot dem onstr a tions have been initia ted in Kenya (led by IC R I SAT), Seneg a l (led by ANAM S) focused on com m unica tion and use of clim a te infor m a tio; and in Punja b, Biha r and Nepa l under the "C lim a te-Sm a r t V illa g e" model. Par ticipa tor y eva lua tion of ag r om eteor olog ica l advisor y ser vices initia ted in M ali, cosponsor ed by USAI D. Par ticipa tor y dia g nosis and pr epa r a tor y activities sta r ted in G ha na , Ethiopia and Bang la desh. Docum enta tion com pleted and dissem ina ted a s par t of 2. 3 . 3 . 1 See 2. 1 . 3 . 1 Developing and testing clim a te risk mana g em ent tools in sm a llholder ag r icultur e thr oug h com m unity based action resea r ch C om petitive call tar g eting nationa l and loca l level actor s such as wom en g r oups, far m er s and C BO s; selection cr iter ia to be developed 5 0 M ilestone 2. 1 . 5 . 1 G uidelines developed for ensur ing equita ble par ticipa tion of wom en and other socia lly disa dva nta g ed g r oups in par ticipa tor y action resea r ch on clim a te-r ela ted risk mana g em ent. (2 0 1 1 ) G uidelines com pleted and dissem ina ted C onsulta tion on identifica tion of g ender and socia l equity issues, and developm ent of resea r ch and im plem enta tion str a teg y for clim a te risk mana g em ent par ticipa tor y pilot dem onstr a tions at benchm a r k loca tions FAO , in colla bor a tion with Them e 4. - Co m p l et ed Completed through efforts by Theme 4: “Gender and clim a te cha ng e resea r ch in ag r icultur e and food secur ity for rur a l developm ent. FAO /C C AFS/C G I AR br ief. andwww. fa o. or g /g ender ; FAO and C C AFS. G ender and C lim a te C ha ng e Resea r ch in Ag r icultur e and Food Secur ity for Rur a l Repor t com pleted and dissem ina ted C lim a te risk discour se thr oug h rur a l radio dia log ue am ong st far m er s, scientists policy maker s and pr iva te sector ser vice pr ovider s C om petitive call to loca l level par tner s in EA 2 5 Ana lyses of rur a l institutions in ena bling ada pta tion to develop a mor e pr ofound under sta nding of how loca l rur a l institutiona l actor s respond to the uphea va ls in livelihood system s tha t ar e being tr ig g er ed by clim a te cha ng e. Danish Institute for Inter na tiona l Studies Output 2.2.1 Enha nced knowledg e of im pa cts of clim a te fluctua tions on food secur ity, and how to use adva nce infor m a tion to best mana g e clim a te-r ela ted risk thr oug h food deliver y, tr a de, cr isis response and post-cr isis recover y Policym etr ixa has been contr a cted to synthesisize wha t is known about risk mana g em ent knowledg e and str a teg ies at benchm a r k sites, based on baseline data and liter a tur e. The ong oing study was dela yed due to a sta lled effor t to contr a ct it thr oug h Biover sity. Ava ila ble repor ts docum ent cur r ent risk mana g em ent str a teg ies at the Kuhlna and Bor a na sites. Gen d er stu d y gra n t aw a rd ed to Dr. An n u n cia te Na k iga n d a fro m th e Na tio n a l Lives to ck Res o u rce Res ea rch In s titu te V ern a cu l a r ra d i o pro gra m la u n ch ed in co l l a b o ra t i o n wit h Mb a i t u FM (Ea st ern Bro a d ca st i n g Corp o ra t i o n ) Output 2.1.2 Analytica l fr a m ewor k and tools to tar g et and eva lua te risk mana g em ent innova tions for resilient rur a l livelihoods and im pr oved food secur ity Output 2.1.3 Developm ent; and dem onstr a tion of the fea sibility, accepta bility and im pa cts; of innova tive risk mana g em ent str a teg ies and actions for rur a l com m unities Pa rtia ll y co mp leted M ilestone 2. 1 . 5 . 2 Sum m a r y repor t of g ender and socia l differ entia tion of cur r ent risk mana g em ent str a teg ies and access to associa ted infor m a tion and ser vices at benchm a r k loca tions in 2 countr ies each in EA, W A and IG P (2 0 1 3 ) Output 2.1.4 Tailor and dissem ina te resea r ch results for evidence-ba sed policy and technica l suppor t for far m - to com m unity-level risk mana g em ent str a teg ies Output 2.1.5 Identify and eva lua te differ entia l im pa ct of ag r icultur a l risk mana g em ent str a teg ies on differ ent socia l g r oups, par ticula r ly wom en and men, and com m unica te finding s thr oug h technica l and policy suppor t activities Objective 2.2 Identify and test tools and strategies to use advance information to better manage climate risk through food delivery, trade and crisis response Outcome 2.2: Better climate-informed management by key international, regional and national agencies of food crisis response, post-crisis recovery, and food trade and delivery in at least 12 countries M ilestone 2. 1 . 3 . 2 C ur r ent str a teg ies and actions for mana g ing clim a te- r ela ted risk docum ented for rur a l com m unities at benchm a r k loca tions in EA, W A and IG P (2 0 1 1 ) Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed M ilestone 2. 2 . 1 . 1 Repor t and jour na l ar ticle on im pa cts of clim a te var ia bility on com ponents (e. g . , pr oduction, pr ices, rur a l incom es, consum ption, tr a de, hum a nita r ia n assista nce) of food secur ity; and review of policies to media te im pa cts in EA, W A and IG P (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t com pleted and jour na l paper published and dissem ina ted Ana lyze im pa cts of clim a te var ia bility on com ponents (pr oduction, pr ices, rur a l incom es, consum ption, tr a de, hum a nita r ia n assista nce) of food secur ity, and policies to media te im pa cts C om petitive call 7 0 2 5 Pa rtia ll y co mp leted Dra ft rep o rt on Ma n a gin g Clima te Ris k s th ro u gh CCAF S Pro gra mmes : A Sta k eh o ld er In s titu tio n a l Ca p a city An a lys is in Ea s tern Africa Regio n A thr ee-countr y study of rela tionships between histor ic clim a te var ia bility and com ponents of food secur ity (e. g . , pr oduction, sta ple food pr ices, rur a l incom es, hum a nita r ia n assista nce), awa r ded to W FP thr oug h a com petitive pr ocess, pr oduced a repor t for Nepa l (funded by IG P and cr oss-listed as M ilestone 2. 3 . 3 . 2 ). Repor ts in pr epa r a tion for Seneg a l and Ethiopia wer e dela yed as par tner ship and data - sha r ing ag r eem ents wer e neg otia ted. M ilestone 2. 2 . 2 . 1 Repor t and policy br ief on the costs associa ted with tim ing and tar g eting of alter na tive food cr isis inter ventions (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t and policy br ief com pleted and dissem ina ted Assess influence of tim ing and tar g eting on costs of food secur ity inter ventions, to infor m investm ent in im pr oved infor m a tion and response system s W FP, IRI 2 0 Co mp leted A consulta tion with inter na tiona l food secur ity stakeholders (Output 2.2.3) led to a shift in focus – fr om a food secur ity inter vention costing study, towa r d a dem a nd-dr iven pr ocess focused on g over nm ent food secur ity decision-m a king in Ethiopia . A prepa r a tor y study reviewed decision pr ocesses and calenda r s for g over nm ent Repor t com pleted and dissem ina ted  I nter na tiona l food secur ity sta keholder consulta tion to develop a colla bor a tive str a teg y for im pr oving inter vention, coor dina tion, capa city to respond to im pr oved clim a te-r ela ted infor m a tion R eleva nt inter na tiona l food secur ity or g a niza tions, Tufts U. , C or nell U. 6 0 R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted Scoping study of cur r ent sta te, tr ends, em er g ing oppor tunities to incor por a te adva nce infor m a tion into mana g em ent of clim a te-r ela ted food cr ises and pr ice fluctua tions, in pr epa r a tion for consulta tion wor kshop and subsequent wor k on im pr oving response with key hum a nita r ia n response and tr a de Tufts U. 4 2 R epor t C om pleted Pa r tia l sala r y (Aug -Dec 20 1 0 ) and tr a vel (Aug -Sep 20 1 0 ) towa r d: C ase study of reg iona l food secur ity pla nning in E. Afr ica and use of clim a te infor m a tion for nationa l-level food secur ity decision making in select countr ies. W FP, IRI , Red C r oss, FewsNet 6 M ilestone 2. 2 . 3 . 2 Study and sta keholder consulta tion on reg iona l ag r icultur a l and food secur ity conting ency pla nning pr ocesses, cur r ent and potentia l use of clim a te- r ela ted infor m a tion, and str a teg y for im pr oving pla nning and coor dina tion in EA, W A and IG P (2 0 1 1 ) 3 wor kshops each eng a g ing at lea st 10 par ticipa nts; Study repor t com pleted and dissem ina ted. I G P, W A, EA: Releva nt reg iona l and nationa l food secur ity and tr a de or g a niza tions TBD with Reg iona l Facilita tor s - 50 5 0 5 0 Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed On e syn t h esi s rep o rt pro d u ced on regio n a l foo d syst em sta keh o d ers co n su l t a t i o n & on e FS sta keh o l d er worksh o p in prep a ra t i o n Di scu ssi o n in i t i a t ed for th i s a ct i vi t y bu t co u l d not be im p l em en t ed du e to la ck of co n sen su s on tech n i ca l det a i l s C onsulta tions with releva nt sta keholder s wer e initia ted in all thr ee reg ions, but not com pleted or repor ted in the IG P. In EA, it is incor por a ted into the repor t on M ana g ing C lim a te Risks thr oug h C C AFS Prog r a m m es: A Sta keholder Institutiona l C apa city Ana lysis in Easter n Afr ica Reg ion, repor ted under milestone 2. 2 . 1 . 1 . com petitive call(4 5 ), U . Rea ding (2 5 ), IRI (4 0 ); coor dina ted with EA and W A reg iona l par tner activities R epor t C om pleted Tr a vel for Dinku (Aug -Sep 20 1 0 ) and Lyon (Nov-Dec 20 1 0 ) towa r d: Initia te developm ent of histor ic meteor olog ica l data set in East and W est Afr ica , for use in ag r icultur a l and biolog ica l thr ea t for eca sting and other clim a te infor m a tion ser vice inter ventions I R I , Ethiopia n NM A, AG HR YM ET 9 M ilestone 2. 3 . 1 . 2 Prototype sea sona l for eca st infor m a tion pr oducts tailor ed and eva lua ted for loca l ag r icultur a l decision-m a king in 2 countr ies each in EA, W A (2 0 1 1 ) Ta ilor ed pr oducts developed for benchm a r k loca tions in 2 countr ies and made publicly ava ila ble M ethodolog y and capa city developm ent to tailor sea sona l for eca sts to cr op for eca sting and loca l ag r icultur a l decision-m a king I R I , Seneg a l M et. Dep. , releva nt nationa l and reg iona l clim a te institutions 3 0 3 0 3 5 Co m p l et ed On e Sea so n a l Foreca st Com m u n i ca t i o n Worksh o p a n d Eva l u a t i o n im p l em en t ed in Sen ega l ; Di scu ssi o n in i t i a t ed for th i s a ct i vi t y; a ct i vi t i es fin a l i sed to be im p l em en t ed in 201 2 Loca lly-downsca led pr oba bilistic sea sona l for eca sts wer e developed and pr esented in tr a ining wor kshops in Seneg a l and Kenya , and ar e ava ila ble in tr a ining wor kshop repor ts. Instea d of 2 countr ies each in EA and W A, sea sona l for eca st developm ent was expa nded into the IFP, for which a set of web-ba sed analytical “maprooms” were developed to visualize a nd ana lyze ag r icultur a lly im por ta nt rainfa ll sta tistics M ilestone 2. 3 . 2 . 1 Repor t and jour na l ar ticle pr oduced on synthesis and pr og r a m str a teg y for needs, constr a ints and oppor tunities for enha ncing clim a te ser vices, and institutiona l and IC T- ba sed infor m a tion deliver y mecha nism s for ag r icultur a l risk mana g em ent (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t com pleted and jour na l paper published C lim a te ser vices and deliver y mecha nism s synthesis and pr og r a m str a teg y for m ula tion AC M AD, IG P consulta nts, IRI 2 0 Un co m p l et ed A study was com m issioned with a consulta nt, thr oug h ILR I , to synthesize infor m a tion about cur r ent clim a te ser vices and infor m str a teg y in the thr ee focus reg ions. The synthesis builds five pr evious reg iona l repor ts. C ontr a cting pr oblem s within ILR I dela yed wor k on the synthesis repor t. M ilestone 2. 3 . 3 . 1 Proof-of-concept on rem ote sensing data assim ila tion for cr op and rang ela nd pr oduction for eca sting repor ted (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted Develop and eva lua te methodolog y and tools for for eca sting clim a te im pa cts on cr op pr oduction NASA-J PL 5 1 Co m p l et ed The IRI com pleted the pr oof-of-concept study and pr ototype tool developm ent and repor t. M ilestone 2. 3 . 3 . 2 Predicta bility of cr op pr oduction and pr ices fr om clim a te infor m a tion in the IG P repor ted (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted I G P: Explor a tor y study of the pr edicta bility of reg iona l cr op pr oduction and pr ices fr om clim a te infor m a tion C o-funded with T2 under M ilestone 2. 2 . 1 . 1 . 5 0 Co m p l et ed A rep o rt by th e Worl d Foo d Pro gra m exp l a i n i n g This was incor por a ted into the Nepa l repor t and dr a ft manuscr ipt on im pa cts of clim a te var ia bility on com ponents of food secur ity, repor ted under M ilestone 2. 2 . 1 . 1 . Output 2.2.2 Synthesized knowledg e and evidence of the im pa cts of alter na tive risk mana g em ent inter ventions within the food system on food secur ity and rur a l livelihoods, to infor m policy and pr a ctice Output 2.2.3 Platfor m and tools for sha r ing knowledg e and foster ing im pr oved coor dina tion am ong food cr isis response, the mar ket-ba sed food deliver y system , and ag r icultur a l resea r ch and developm ent Output 2.2.4 Identify and eva lua te differ entia l im pa ct of tools and str a teg ies for clim a te risk mana g em ent on differ ent socia l g r oups, par ticula r ly wom en and men, and inject finding s into suppor t to ag encies Objective 2.3 Support risk management through enhanced prediction of climate impacts on agriculture, and enhanced climate information and services Develop and eva lua te methodolog y for com bining sta tion obser va tions and rem ote sensing into g r idded daily histor ic meteor olog ica l data sets for ag r icultur a l modeling applica tions Output 2.3.1 Impr oved clim a te infor m a tion tools and pr oducts to suppor t mana g em ent of ag r icultur a l and food secur ity risk Output 2.3.2 Synthesized knowledg e and evidence on institutiona l ar r a ng em ents and pr ocesses for enha ncing clim a te ser vices for ag r icultur e and food secur ity M ilestone 2. 3 . 1 . 1 Histor ic g r idded daily rainfa ll data set, com bining obser va tions and satellite im a g es, developed and eva lua ted for 1 countr y each in EA and W A (2 0 1 1 ) 1 1 4 Output 2.3.3 Impr oved knowledg e, tools, data sets and pla tfor m s for monitor ing and pr edicting ag r icultur a l pr oduction and biolog ica l thr ea ts, and infor m ing mana g em ent, in response to clim a te fluctua tions 4 0 5 0 Data set for 2 countr ies com pleted and dissem ina ted; eva lua tion repor t com pleted and dissem ina ted A wor kshop in Nair obi br oug ht g loba l lea der s in food secur ity infor m a tion and response to identifying pr ior ity issues, g aps and oppor tunities, to infor m C C AFS str a teg y. O utcom es ar e captur ed in a wor kshop repor t, and a repor t on pr om ising O bjective 2. 2 activities and par tner ships. The Tufts Univer sity study was sta r ted in 20 1 0 but wasn' t com pleted until ear ly 20 1 1 due to dela ys in contr a cting . Dela ys in pr ocessing within C olum bia Univer sity caused som e funds fr om the East Afr ica study -- com pleted in 20 1 0 -- to car r y over into 20 1 1 . C C AFS com m issioned a set of par tner s (Rea ding , Princeton, IRI , AG R HYM ET) to develop methods to reconstr uct histor ic daily wea ther data needed for ag r icultur a l modeling and ada pta tion inter ventions. Deliver a bles include 2 technica l repor ts, pr ototype softwa r e tools and tr a ining events. Two repor ts ar e still pending and one is pr elim ina r y. Par ticipa ting countr ies have not yet g iven per m ission to develop full data sets for public relea se. R ep o rt on Im p ro ved Da i l y R a i n fa l l a n d Tem p era t u re Ti m e Seri es over Et h i o p i a , stu d y su b m i t t ed by the Eth i o p i a Na t i o n a l Met eo ro l o gy Agen cy (NMA) Co m p l et ed Outcome 2.3 Enhanced uptake and use of improved climate information products and services, and of information about agricultural production and biological threats, by resource-poor farmers, particularly vulnerable groups and women, in at least 12 countries M ilestone 2. 2 . 3 . 1 Repor t and policy br ief of an inter na tiona l food system sta keholder consulta tion to develop a colla bor a tive str a teg y for im pr oving inter vention, coor dina tion, capa city to respond to im pr oved clim a te-r ela ted infor m a tion (2 0 1 1 ) Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed On e worksh o p on ha rm o n i z i n g m et h o d o l o gies for sea so n a l foreca st i n g of th e ra i n y sea so n ch a ra ct eri st i cs in West Afri ca M ilestone 2. 3 . 3 . 3 Synthesis repor t on clim a te-sensitive pest and disea se modeling and ear ly war ning system s for ag r icultur a l and food secur ity risk mana g em ent (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted Synthesis repor t on clim a te-sensitive pest and disea se modeling and ear ly war ning system s for ag r icultur a l and food secur ity risk mana g em ent Ka nsa s Sta te U. C o-funded by Them e 2. 3 0 Co m p l et ed The study, pr oduced a jour na l ar ticle subm itted to Ag r icultur a l and For est M eteor olog y, and a repor t with str a teg y recom m enda tions. The study, co- funded with Them e 2, was initia ted in 20 1 0 but car r ied into 20 1 1 due to contr a cting dela ys. M ilestone 2. 3 . 3 . 4 C rop and rang ela nd pr oduction for eca sting pla tfor m , docum enta tion and tr a ining mater ia ls developed (2 0 1 3 ) Electr onic pla tfor m publicly ava ila ble; sum m a r y docum ent and tr a ining mater ia ls com pleted and dissem ina ted C r op and rang ela nd pr oduction for eca sting methodolog y developm ent FAO (3 5 ), AG R HYM ET & par tner s (4 0 ), NASA- J PL (5 0 ), IRI (3 0 ) 1 5 5 4 0 Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed C onsulta tion with sever a l exper ts revea led sig nifica nt constr a ints to ada pting with wha t had appea r ed to be candida te tools, and sug g ested the need to review existing softwa r e tools and appr oa ches befor e initia ting developm ent of a C C AFS cr op for eca sting softwa r e packa g e. A review of existing tools was M ilestone 3. 1 . 1 . 1 Repor t on potentia l em issions reductions fr om technica l options com pa tible with mainta ining food supply (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t com pleted and dissem ina ted Potentia l em issions reductions (a) fr om technica l options com pa tible with mainta ining food supply and (b) under alter na tive intensifica tion scena r ios. Two countr y case studies/r eg ion, in colla bor a tion with nationa l ag encies; include capa city developm ent (inc IG P reg iona l wor kshop) To be selected on a tender basis. WA: II TA IG P: Tender for consulta nt for sta tus paper ; IG P: reg iona l assessm ents - BAR C , NAR C , IC AR , NG O s 7 5 1 2 5 7 0 3 5 Co m p l et ed On e PAR act i vi t y- p l a n n i n g worksh o p rea l i sed A wo r k sho p o r ga nised with sta k eho lder s in India o n lo w ca r bo n dev elo pment pa thwa y s; and repo r ts fr o m IA RI , BCA S and BIDS fo r India and Ba ngla desh co mpleted o n emissio ns and mitiga tio n o ppo r tunities Po t en t i a l em i ssi o n s red u ct i o n s id en t i fi ed for co n d i t i o n s co n si st en t wit h m a i n t a i n i n g foo d su p p l y for fou r co u n t ri es in E Afri ca (B ro w n et al. CCAF S Worki n g Pa p er 14) . In t en si fi ca t i o n scen a ri o exa m i n ed for W. Afri ca co co a (see bel o w ) . M ilestone 3. 1 . 1 . 2 *R epor t on potentia l em issions reductions fr om technica l options com pa tible with mainta ining food supply under alter na tive intensifica tion scena r ios. (2 0 1 1 ) Repor t com pleted and dissem ina ted W A: C ocoa intensifica tion in W est Afr ica and im plica tions for landsca pe-level mitig a tion. IG P: Sta tus paper on potentia l for car bon sequestr a tion in IG P in ag r icultur e; Reg iona l assessm ent of low car bon options in ag r icultur e IFPR I , NAR S in G ha na , Seneg a l, M ali, Ug a nda , Kenya , India , Nepa l, Bang la desh Co m p l et ed see a b o ve R ep o rt co m p l et ed for co co a in t en si fi ca t i o n in WA (G o cko w ski et al. CCAF S worki n g pa p er in pro gress) M ilestone 3. 1 . 1 . 5 . Assessm ent repor t on reg iona l and nationa l ag r icultur a l developm ent policies, mitig a tion policies and mitig a tion pr ojects and their im plica tions for mitig a tion, pover ty allevia tion and food secur ity (2 0 1 1 ) Assessm ent repor t com pleted and dissem ina ted (a) G loba l review of low C developm ent str a teg ies to under sta nd linka g es to ag r icultur e; (b) Review of mitig a tion policies and pr ojects in foca l reg ions, with nationa l ag encies and with g ender lens. (c)M itig a tion resea r ch pla nning meeting s (1 /r eg ion) ASAR EC A, C O R AF and nationa l ag encies 2 8 Co m p l et ed B a n d C co m p l et ed . Prem a t u re to revi ew low ca rb o n devel o p m en t stra t egies, a s agri cu l t u ra l co m p o n en t s sti l l few an d em ergin g M ilestone 3. 1 . 2 . 1 *Fr a m ewor k for com pa r ison of envir onm enta l footpr int of ag r icultur a l system s (I LR I ) (2 0 1 1 ) Fr a m ewor k com pleted and dissem ina ted C oor dina tion Led by ILR I Co m p l et ed Output 2.3.4 Enha nced capa city of nationa l and reg iona l clim a te infor m a tion pr ovider s, NAR ES and com m unica tion inter m edia r ies to desig n and deliver clim a te infor m a tion pr oducts and ser vices for ag r icultur e and food secur ity mana g em ent Output 2.3.5 Identify and eva lua te differ entia l im pa ct of clim a te infor m a tion ser vices on differ ent socia l g r oups, par ticula r ly wom en and men, and inject finding s into suppor t to far m er s Theme 3. Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Objective 3.1 Inform decision makers about the impacts of alternative agricultural development pathways Outcome 3.1: Enhanced knowledge about agricultural development pathways that lead to better decisions for climate mitigation, poverty alleviation, food security and environmental health, used by national agencies in at least 20 countries Output 3.1.1 Analysis of ag r icultur a l developm ent pathwa ys and the tr a de-offs am ong mitig a tion, pover ty allevia tion, food secur ity and envir onm enta l hea lth Output 3.1.2 Enha nced tools, data and ana lytic capa city in reg iona l and nationa l policy and resea r ch or g a niza tions to ana lyze the im plica tions of differ ent developm ent scena r ios and mitig a tion str a teg ies Output 3.1.3 Analysis of the g ender and socia l differ entia tion im plica tions of alter na tive ag r icultur a l pathwa ys and finding s built into com m unica tions and capa city building activities Objective 3.2 Identify institutional arrangements and incentives that enable smallholder farmers and common-pool resource users to reduce GHGs and improve livelihoods Kutcome ϯ͘Ϯ͗ Improved Ŭnowledge about incentives and institutional arrangements for mitigation practices by resource‐poor smallholders ;including farmers’ organinjationsͿ͕ proũect developers and policy makers in at least 10 countries Synthesis Book: sm a llholder mitig a tion (edited volum e, Ear thsca n), FAO , II ED, Ecoa g r icultur e (b) Project–level action research on economic and technical feasibility of CͲ m a r ket for sm a llholder s (E and W . Afr ica ) (no pr ojects identified yet in IG P) EcoAg r icultur e, Ecotr ust, W or ld V ision, V i Ag r ofor estr y, C AR E, Susta ina ble Food Lab, W or ld Bank, C aca o C ar bon Project, NAR S 1 2 0 3 5 3 5 (c) Nationa l level ana lysis of options in ag r icultur e either thr oug h case studies or exper t wor kshop M aker er e Univer sity, BI DS, II M A, C AR E, EPA 1 5 7 0 6 0 9 0 (d) Landsca pe ana lysis of Incentives for mitig a tion at the far m -for est inter fa ce (specia l jour na l issue, g loba l wor kshop, synthesis jour na l ar ticle, confer ence pr esenta tion at Ear th System s G over na nce confer ence M ar 20 1 1 ) M ichig a n Sta te Univer sity 6 2 (e) Ana lysis of fina nce cha nnels and resour ces in sm a llholder ag r icultur e G loba l C ar bon 3 5 M ilestone 3. 2 . 1 . 2 Exper ts wor kshop to identify the desig n and monitor ing requir em ents of fina nce and institutiona l ar r a ng em ents to better benefit poor far m er s and wom en (2 0 1 1 ) W or kshop held; 12 -1 5 par ticipa nts repr esenting major inter na tiona l and reg iona l or g a niza tions dea ling with g ender issues; Exper t consulta tion com pleted and sum m a r ized; repor t dissem ina ted W or kshop: incentives for sm a llholder mitig a tion (pr oduce review paper s and build com m unity of pr a ctice) July FAO 7 0 Co m p l et ed h t t p : //w w w . fa o . o rg/cl i m a t ech a n g e/m i cc a /7 2 5 3 0 /en / M ilestone 3. 2 . 1 . 3 *I n-depth ana lysis of the econom ic incentives and benefits to far m er s for integ r a ted pr a ctices (conser va tion ag r icultur e, susta ina ble land mana g em ent, and ag r ofor estr y) in thr ee initia l tar g et reg ions, linked to M ilestone 3. 3 . 1 . 1 and 3. 3 . 2 . 2 (C I M M YT, IFPR I ) (2 0 1 2 ) J our na l ar ticle com pleted and dissem ina ted Assessm ent of cur r ent incentives at benchm a r k sites via im pa ct sur vey (T4 activity) To be selected on a tender basis; 3 0 Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pl a n n i n g co n d u ct ed a n d pro ject exp a n d ed . Will ta ke pla ce un d er T4. M ilestone 3. 2 . 2 . 3 Tr a ining for pr oject im plem enter s on desig ning fina nce and institutiona l ar r a ng em ents and safeg ua r ds specifica lly to benefit poor far m er s and wom en (2 0 1 3 ) W or kshops pr ovide tr a ining to 50 individua ls per C C AFS reg ion (3 ) Field assessm ent of role of wom en and poor in mitig a tion pr ojects and mea sur es to im pr ove W O C AN (including nationa l mem ber s) 7 0 Un co m p l et ed W OCAN in tra n si t i o n (m o ved to Ba n gko k) (a ) W or kshop and com m issioned synthesis of em issions methods/m odels and identifica tion of cost effective methods appr opr ia te for sm a llholder s, as basis for reg iona l wor king g r oups to develop methods and build a com m unity of pr a ctice Duke Univer sity, T-AG G , ILR I , IC R AF, C I P, IRR I , FAO 9 0 (b) Scoping study and wor kshop to assess whole far m and AFO LU /la ndsca pe G HG accounting options FAO -M I C C A 7 0 (c) Tr a ining in nationa l inventor y methods in 2 countr ies (Nepa l) G loba l Resea r ch Allia nce, ILR I , NAR S in Nepa l 3 0 (d) IG P: C om pa r a tive eva lua tion of field level models for sim ula ting G HG em issions fr om ag r icultur e in IG P reg ion (r epor t on model suita bility); ?????? - 30 3 0 3 0 (e) IG P, W A, EA: G HG em ission baselines for the thr ee study reg ions and benchm a r k sites (ba seline repor t) (ca pa city building com ponent) W inr ock and Applied G eosolutions + loca l par tner s; IG P: To be selected on a tender basis 5 0 5 0 5 0 Developing and testing G HG mitig a tion tools in sm a llholder ag r icultur e thr oug h com m unity action resea r ch C om petitive calls - - 40 M ilestone 3. 3 . 2 . 2 *Data and methods for car bon mea sur em ent and monitor ing for integ r a ted ag r icultur a l system s (com plex landsca pes, integ r a ted ag r icultur e, for estr y and aqua cultur e, rang ela nd and livestock) (I C R AF, W or ldFish, IC AR DA, ILR I ); includes equipm ent valida tion for soil car bon field assessm ents (C I P) (2 0 1 3 ) Data , methodolog ies, tools and g uidelines sha r ed thr oug h websites, policy br iefs and scientific ar ticle All G HG landsca pe ana lysis (inc wetla nds/flooded ar ea s) I C R AF, C I FO R , IW M I 5 0 4 0 4 0 Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed On e regio n a l tea m (8 peo p l e) est a b l i sh ed for GHG qu a n t i fi ca t i o n m et h o d s devel o p m en t ; six sci en t i st s su p p o rt ed th ro u gh pro ject s on devel o p m en t of GHG Wet l a n d s resea rch exp l o red a n d deferred . M ilestone 3. 3 . 2 . 3 Field resea r ch initia ted at benchm a r k sites to assess tr a de-offs for differ ent sector s of ag r icultur a l mitig a tion (livestock, soil car bon, ag r ofor estr y) based on biophysica l and livelihood outcom es (2 0 1 2 ) Field tr ia ls in oper a tion in 10 C C AFS benchm a r k sites acr oss 3 initia l tar g et reg ions Scoping and conta cting pr ospective par tner univer sities per reg ion Develop a 'pool' of Ph. D. students linked to the networ k Identify fundr a ising possibilities for the networ k5 0 C openha g en Univer sity, ASAR EC A, C O R AF - - - Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed S ee 3.3 . 2 . 4 . R esea rch not direct ed to ben ch m a rk sit es a s Ph D stu d en t s a lrea d y ha d co m m i t m en t s to oth er sit es M ilestone 3. 3 . 2 . 4 Networ k of PhD students launched for studying G HG s in developing countr y ag r icultur e to test methods and develop fur ther innova tions, linked to M ilestone 3. 3 . 2 . 2 and 3. 3 . 2 . 3 (2 0 1 1 ) 2 0 PhD students eng a g ed in networ k per C C AFS reg ion Co m p l et ed Cli m a t e Foo d a n d Fa rm i n g Net w o rk (CL I F F ) form ed , eigh t Ph D fel l o w gra n t s given a n d worksh o p hel d in 201 ; htt p : //w w w . cl i ff. l i fe. ku . d k/ Boo k pu b l i sh ed by Ea rt h sca n , Eco a gri cu l t u re en ga ged 4 pa rt n ers in PAR for E. Afri ca , n a t i o n a l worksh o p s hel d in 4 co u n t ri es a lt h o u gh op t i o n s not fu l l y id en t i fi ed , la n d sca p e sp eci a l issu e a n sd pol i cy bri ef prep a red wit h syn t h esi s a rt i cl e in prep a ra t i o n IL R I /CIF OR /I CR AF co n d u ct i n g green h o u se ga s flu xes in agro fo rest ry syst em s of West ern Ken ya A stu d y co n d u ct ed to un d erst a n d to un d erst a n d op t i o n s in In d i a co m p l et ed IAR I Co m p a ra t i ve eva l u a t i o n of mod el s sti l l to be don e; GHG em i ssi o n ba sel i n es fro m a gri cu l t u re co m p l et ed for Sou t h Asi a . M ilestone 3. 3 . 2 . 1 Exper t and sta keholder consulta tions on methods appr opr ia te for sm a llholder far m er s thr oug h one g loba l wor kshop and wor kshops in each of the 3 initia l tar g et reg ions (2 0 1 1 ) W or kshops eng a g e 25 par ticipa nts each. C onsulta tions com pleted and sum m a r ized. Co m p l et ed A rep o rt on em i ssi o n ba sel i n es pro d u ced (Ap p l i ed Geo so l u t i o n s , DNDC Art ) M ilestone 3. 2 . 1 . 1 Reviews of pr om ising incentives, institutions, mar ket-ba sed mecha nism s and policies at pr oject and nationa l sca les, in thr ee initia l tar g et reg ions, including (i) car bon as co- benefit to mor e pr oductive ag r icultur a l pr a ctices, (ii) car bon mar kets, (iii) cor por a te socia l responsibility technica l assista nce, (iv) car bon labelling , sum m a r ized in four ar ticles, policy br iefs and posted on webpa g e (2 0 1 1 ) 4 policy br iefs and scientific ar ticles com pleted and dissem ina ted. W ebpa g e developed. Co m p l et ed 4 co u n try p o li cy sta tu s & res ea rch p rio rity rep o rts d evelo p ed ; On e rep o rt on mitiga tio n op tio n s an d in cen tive mech a n is ms for agricu ltu ra l cli ma te ch a n ge mitiga tio n to ben efit th e sma ll h o ld ers (Niger b io ca rb o n p ro ject) (a ) a n d (b ) co m p l et ed . IL R I del a yed tra i n i n g to 201 2 . Tra i n i n g by DNDC Art del a yed to Ja n u a ry- Ma y 201 2 . Output 3.3 .2 Methods developed and valida ted for G HG monitor ing and accounting at far m and landsca pe level to contr ibute to com plia nce and volunta r y mar ket sta nda r ds Dra ft rep o rt on th e Sta t e of Cli m a t e Ch a n ge Ad a p t a t i o n a n d Mit i ga t i o n Effo rt s for Agri cu l t u re in Ea st ern Afri ca ; Output 3.3 .1 Analysis of mitig a tion biophysica l and socioeconom ic fea sibility for differ ent ag r icultur a l pr a ctices and reg ions, and im pa cts on em issions, livelihoods and food secur ity Output 3.2.2 I m pr oved capa city to incr ea se the upta ke and im pr ove the desig n of incentives mecha nism s and institutiona l ar r a ng em ents to deliver benefits to poor far m er s and wom en Objective 3.3 Test and identify desirable on-farm practices and their landscape-level implications Outcome 3.3 : Key agencies dealing with climate mitigation in at least 10 countries promoting technically and economically feasible agricultural mitigation practices that have co-benefits for resource-poor farmers, particularly vulnerable groups and women Output 3.3 .3 Synthesis of under sta nding about the dir ect and indir ect econom ic and envir onm enta l costs and benefits fr om ag r icultur a l mitig a tion Output 3.2.1 Evidence, ana lysis and tr ia ls to suppor t institutiona l desig ns, policy and fina nce tha t will deliver benefits to poor far m er s and wom en, and reduce G HG em issions Suppor ting scena r ios pr ocess and reg iona l capa city in scena r ios for linking to g loba l pr ocesses and nationa l policy; synthesis of results and eva lua tion of value of linking loca l-r eg iona l-g loba l sca les thr oug h scena r ios appr oa ch 2 0 0 k to O xfor d for scena r ios officer sala r y and tr a vel 2 0 0 4 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 I m plem enta tion with par tner s of var ious eng a g em ent and com m unica tion str a teg ies (policy cha m pions, br iefs, website, media outr ea ch) for moving scena r ios into policy PANO S, ILR I , ASAR EC A, IFPR I , IW M I , IC R I SAT, IC R AF 6 0 1 3 5 Developing and testing knowledg e pla tfor m s for com m unica tion clim a te action thr oug h com m unity based action resea r ch C om petitive call tar g eting nationa l and loca l level actor s such as wom en g r oups, far m er s and C BO s; selection cr iter ia to be developed 3 0 M ilestone 4. 1 . 1 . 2 Thr ee sets of pr ototype reg iona l scena r ios pr oduced (m a in reg iona l uncer ta inties identified, initia l reg iona l stor ylines developed, repor ts and initia l scoping for model ana lysis). Ar ticle on effectiveness of scena r ios as a 'bounda r y object' (2 0 1 1 ) Scena r ios repor ts for EA, W A and IG P ava ila ble on C C AFS and par tner s websites; Loca l media repor ts fr om each reg ion Q ua ntifica tion of reg iona l scena r ios in EA, W A, IG P, and initia l wor k on linka g e of reg iona l scena r ios to the g loba l level and downsca ling to the loca l/household levels I FPR I , II ASA, Ag M I P, other s (including reg iona l par tner s) to be selected Co m p l et ed EA an d WA sto ryli n es p ro d u ced , an a lyzed an d refin ed ; mo d eli n g tea ms en ga ged an d qu a n tifica tio n wo rk u n d erw a y. Scen a rio s ap p ro a ch for S As ia u n d er ex p lo ra tio n . Ch a u d h u ry M, Vervo o rt V, Kris tja n s o n P, Erick s en P, Ain s li e A. Mu lti-S ta k eh o ld er Scen a rio s as a Bo u n d a ry Pro ces s : Imp ro vin g Fo o d Secu rity, En viro n men ts an d Liveli h o o d s in Ea s t Africa u n d er Co n d itio n s of Clima te Ch a n ge. Eva lua tion of the vulner a bility hotspots mapping ; fur ther qua ntifica tion of these to the 20 3 0 s and 20 5 0 s at differ ent sca les, and linka g e to the reg iona l scena r ios U of Kwa Z ulu Nata l, Food Econom y G r oup, FAO , C or nell U, G EC AFS I G P: C apa city building in vulner a bility assessm ent for IG P ag r icultur a l sub- r eg ions (including a tra ining wor kshop) NAR S-I ndia , Bang la desh, Nepa l 1 0 0 EA: V ulner a bility and clim a te risk assessm ent of the ag r icultur a l sector in four countr ies and mapping policies, institutions and actor s rela ted to clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion, food secur ity, food system s and ag r icultur a l developm ent (including a policy dissem ina tion wor kshop) Nationa l par tner s TBD. 1 reg iona l consulta nt to lea d the policy mapping study, coor dina ting 4 nationa l facilita tor s at EPA (Ethiopia ), M inistr y of Ag r icultur e, Food and cooper a tives (Ta nza nia ), M aker er e Univ. (Ug a nda ) and Nair obi Univer sity (Kenya ) 5 0 I m plem enta tion of var ious eng a g em ent, visua liza tion and com m unica tion appr oa ches (policy advisor y g r oup, maps, film s, br iefs, website, media outr ea ch) for enha ncing use of vulner a bility and scena r io ana lyses and maps and other C C AFS outputs in decision making by reg iona l im plem enting par tner s and policym a ker s U SAI D, EAC , AU, ASAR EC A, C O R AF 1 0 0 NEW Reg iona l capa city str eng thened in par ticipa tor y, g ender - and vulner a bility-sensitive resea r ch on C C AFS issues; resea r ch repor ts fr om each reg ion (2 0 1 1 ) Tr a ining mater ia ls and repor ts ava ila ble on website; 30 loca l par tner s tr a ined Tr a ining s in par ticipa tor y, g ender & vulner a ble g r oups held I NSAH, C EAPR ED, BC AS, AFPR O , NAR O , SAR I 3 0 3 0 Co m p l et ed 2 r egio na l pa r tner s tr a ined o n Gender and Clima te Cha nge Issues in A gr icultur e and Fo o d Secur ity Resea r ch and Rur a l Dev elo pment in Ro me, Ita ly - FA O /C C A FS tr a ining G ender and clima te cha nge r esea r ch in agr icultur e and fo o d secur ity fo r rur a l dev elo pment. FA O /C C A FS /C G I A R br ief. and FA O and CCA FS . G ender and Clima te Cha nge Resea r ch in A gr icultur e and Fo o d Secur ity fo r Rur a l Dev elo pment Tr a ining Ma nua l. CG IA R Pr o gr a m o n Clima te Cha nge, A gr icultur e and Fo o d Secur ity (CC A FS ) and The Fo o d and A gr icultur e Or ga niza tio n o f the United Na tio ns (FA O ) . and Objective 4.1 Explore and jointly apply approaches and methods that enhance knowledge to action linkages with a wide range of partners at local, regional and global levels Outcome 4.1: Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies mainstreamed into national policies in at least 20 countries, in the development plans of at least five economic areas (e.g. ECOWAS, EAC, South Asia) covering each of the target regions, and in the key global processes related to food security and climate change Vu ln era b il ity ma p p in g an d an a lys is with mu ltip le p a rtn ers u n d erta k en ; CCAF S rep o rt, la u n ch an d med ia stories in C, Time and Nature – s ee: Erick s en et al. 201 1 . Ma p p in g h o ts p o ts of cli ma te ch a n ge an d foo d secu rity in 203 0 . CCAF S Rep o rt No . Ava il a b le at: . Pa p er su b mitted to th e jo u rn a l Fo o d Secu rity. EA an d WA mu lti-s ta k eh o ld er scen a rio s tea ms tra in ed an d sto ryli n es p ro d u ced . 100 K Pro p o s a l for EA high level p o li cy wo rk s h o p accep ted b y US AI D; b rief d is s emin a ted at COP1 7 ; p o s ters an d oth er co mmu n ica tio n p ro d u cts u n d er d evelo p men t with regio n a l scen a rio s tea ms an d PAN OS Output 4.1.4 Analyses pr oviding evidence of the benefits of, str a teg ies for , and enha nced reg iona l capa city in, g ender and pr o-poor clim a te cha ng e resea r ch appr oa ches tha t will incr ea se the likelihood tha t C C AFS-r ela ted resea r ch will benefit wom en and other vulner a ble as well as socia lly differ entia ted g r oups Output 4.1.3 Evidence on, testing and com m unica tion of, successful str a teg ies, appr oa ches, policies, and investm ents contr ibuting to im pr oved science-infor m ed C C -a g developm ent-food secur ity policies and decision making Output 4.1.2 Globa l and reg iona l maps, tables and associa ted syntheses, showing cur r ent vulner a ble ag r icultur a l and fishing popula tions in rela tion to food secur ity to 20 3 0 and 20 5 0 M ilestone 4. 1 . 1 . 1 C apa city built am ong thr ee reg iona l tea m s of diver se sta keholder s tr a ined in scena r ios appr oa ches and eng a g ing with policym a ker s in their countr ies/r eg ions and in g loba l C C pr ocesses and with the ESSP com m unity; M ethodolog ica l br iefs, paper s (2 0 1 1 ) R eg iona l scena r ios par tner s actively par ticipa ting in reg iona l food secur ity deba tes and g loba l C C pr ocesses (e. g . UNFC C C neg otia tions and C O P). Num ber of par tner s using /citing scena r ios; No. of reg iona l par tner s tr a ined in scena r ios par ticipa ting in reg iona l FS deba tes and g loba l C C pr ocesses M ilestone 4. 1 . 2 . 1 Vulner a bility assessm ent and maps fr om the thr ee C C AFS reg ions published and widely dissem ina ted in a paper , policy br iefs, confer ence pr esenta tions, wor kshops, web mater ia ls, media stor ies, inputs to the ag wor k pr og r a m / UNFC C C neg otia tions, g loba l and reg iona l C C confer ences (e. g . C O P), contr ibuting to str eng thening reg iona l clim a te and ag r icultur a l knowledg e pla tfor m s/networ ks and im pr oved C C AFS-r ela ted science-user infor m a tion flows (2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3 ) R ur a l ag and fisher y com m unity concer ns included in UNFC C C neg otia tions. New reg iona l C C AFS- r ela ted wor king g r oups and g ov' t units cr ea ted in at lea st 3 reg ions. C C AFS outputs cited by par tner s at nationa l, and reg iona l levels. Num ber of downloa ds and requests fr om reg iona l par tner s for C C AFS pr oducts. Num ber of par tner s/events in the 3 reg ions applying pr ocesses, tools, appr oa ches br ing ing tog ether C C -Ag -FS com m unities in dia log ue; num ber of new pr ojects/pr og r a m s following these appr oa ches S co p i n g work for scen a ri o s co m p l et ed ; fu rt h er work a w a i t i n g qu a n t m od el i n g resu l t s fro m a d d 'l EA work on lin ked qu a l - q u a n t m et h o d s 2 5 pa rt i ci p a n t s fro m Sou t h Asi a tra i n ed in cro p m od el s a n d cl i m a t e ch a n ge scen a ri o s for vu l n era b i l i t y a ssessm en t Output 4.1.1 For each reg ion, coher ent and pla usible futur es scena r ios to 20 3 0 and looking out to 20 5 0 tha t exa m ine potentia l developm ent outcom es under a cha ng ing clim a te and assum ptions of differ ing pathwa ys of econom ic developm ent; developed for the fir st tim e in a par ticipa tive manner with a diver se tea m of reg iona l sta keholder s Co m p l et ed 2 scen a ri o s worksh o p s hel d in WA; sto ryl i n es pro d u ced Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed 2 scen a ri o s worksh o p s hel d in Ea st Afri ca ; One Regio n a l Lea rn i n g Pa rt n ersh i p co n su l t a t i ve m eet i n g hel d in Du rb a n , Sou t h Afri ca 2 b rea k fa s t meetin gs h eld with th e Ad a p ta tio n an d Mitiga tio n Pro fes s io n a l gro u p in Na iro b i, Ken ya ; 3 ph o to ess a ys an d vid eo s d is s emin a ted ; d o cu men ta tio n of th e cu rren t sta tu s of dro u gh t an d fa min e in th e Ho rn of Africa on go in g Output 3.3 .4 Analysis of im pa cts of on-fa r m and landsca pe level pr a ctices on wom en and poor far m er s Theme 4. Integration for Decision Making M ilestone 4. 1 . 4 . 1 Dra wing on Them e 3, C AR E-C C AFS repor t on potentia l im pa cts on wom en and vulner a ble g r oups of new car bon paym ent schem es; FAO /C C AFS repor t on g ender & clim a te cha ng e issues acr oss C C AFS reg ions, infor m ing new C C AFS g ender str a teg y (2 0 1 1 ) Num ber of downloa ds of C C AFS g ender -r ela ted repor ts, br iefs, blog s; C C AFS g ender wor k cited in par tner s' repor ts/str a teg ies and g ender hig hlig hted in nationa l/r eg iona l clim a te, ag and food secur ity str a teg ies Develop g ender str a teg y for C C AFS (with C I AT); Develop g ender tr a ining mater ia ls and desig n and im plem ent reg iona l g ender -C C case studies jointly with FAO to infor m FAO ' s g ender mainstr ea m ing str a teg y FAO , C I AT 1 4 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 Co m p l et ed On e rep o rt on gen d er- rel a t ed too l s for CC ad a p t a t i o n & mit i ga t i o n pro d u ced (G h a n a ) Gen d er stu d y gra n t aw a rd ed to Dr. An n u n cia te Na k iga n d a fro m th e Na tio n a l Lives to ck Res o u rce Res ea rch In s titu te (Na LIRRI ) Co u rses for 20 tra i n ers a n d for 35 ru ra l wom en lea d ers co n d u ct ed ; co u rse m a t eri a l s devel o p ed for Sou t h Asi a CCAF S gen d er stra t egy su b m i t t ed to Con so rt i u m NEW Two resea r ch g r a nts to wom en scientists in each of 3 C C AFS reg ions, based at Univer sities or NAR S, g r a nted 6 new C C AFS-g ender studies initia ted in 3 reg ions Esta blish a new com petitive sm a ll g r a nts pr og r a m for g ender -r esponsive C C AFS resea r ch, and funding g oing to reg iona l fem a le scientists doing resea r ch on C C AFS pr ior ities U niver sities, NAR S in 3 C C AFS reg ions 2 0 0 Co m p l et ed I ssued com petitive call for pr oposa ls and g r a nts g iven to 5 fem a le scientists now im plem enting g ender -C C resea r ch in 3 C C AFS reg ions U nder ta ke reg iona l eng a g em ent activities ASAR EC A, C O R AF, M inistr ies of Ag , C C -units, pover ty units 3 0 3 0 1 0 0 Develop com m unica tions str a teg y and im plem ent 20 1 1 activities 1 5 1 5 5 0 M ilestone 4. 1 . 6 . 1 Thr ee tr a ining s sessions ar e held for a wide var iety of sta keholder s on UNFC C C neg otia tion pr ocess and policy fr a m ewor ks such as NAPAs and NAM As (2 0 1 2 ) Num er ous sta keholder s ar e tr a ined in at lea st 20 countr ies Develop eng a g em ent and tr a ining str a teg y U NFC C C , UNDP, AM C EN Un co m p l et ed Co vered in 4.3 an d th em es1 &3 I G P, W A, EA: Fina lise baseline data collection, colla tion and ana lyses, including g loba l synthesis (inc villa g e and or g a nisa tiona l baseline) C onsulta nts, Univer sity of Rea ding Sta tistica l Ser vices C entr e, reg iona l par tner s 2 2 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 C C AFS repor ts: För ch W , Kr istja nson P, Thor nton PK. 20 1 1 . Initia l Sites in the C C AFS Reg ions: Easter n Africa, West Africa and IndoͲGangetic Plains. Kr istja nson P, G ar lick C , O chieng S, För ch W , Thor nton PK. 20 1 1 . G loba l Sum m a r y of Baseline Household Sur vey Results. Thir teen household baseline result repor ts: Kr istja nson P, Neufeld H, G assner A, M ang o J, Kyazze F, Desta S, Sayula G , Thiede B, För ch W , Thor nton PK, C oe R. Ar e food insecur e sm a llholder households making cha ng es in their far m ing pr a ctices? Evidence fr om East Afr ica . Re-subm itted to Food Secur ity, Dec 20 1 1 . Tr a ining mater ia ls and data : household and villa g e- level sur veys, data mana g em ent, ana lysis and data ava ila ble on data ver se, thr oug h: Baseline developm ent and acquisition of satellite im a g er y M ethodolog y developm ent for downsca ling clim a te model outputs, daily data reconstr uction, daily data g ener a tion, for im pa ct eva lua tion and tr a de-off ana lyses; C I P, U C ape Town, C I AT, ILR I , IRI , W aen Associa tes 1 4 0 3 0 Two "met hodology " report s complet ed: 1 . Applica t ion of nonlinea r t ec hniques f or da ily wea t her da t a rec ons t ruc t ion and downs c a ling coa rs e clima t e da t a f or loc a l predic t ions ( R Q uiroz , A Pos a da s , C IP) . 2 . Towa rd a rubric f or the s imula t ion of regiona l dec a da l va ria bilit y for agric ult ura l and ot her applica t ions ( A M Greene, L Godda rd, J W Ha ns en, IRI ) . Pa per underwa y on compa ris on of met hods of downs c a ling, f or complet ion in 20 1 2 . activities for this milestone will be conducted by CIP – see their activity plan under them e 4. 2 Acquisition of AR 5 scena r io clim a te data and downsca ling C M I P5 data ; C I AT, ILR I , Univer sity of O xfor d, Univer sity of Leeds, W aen Associa tes 6 0 C I A T-ba sed clima te da ta website po pula ted and hea v ily accessed by user s. Ma r k Si mG C M r elea sed o n the web (G o o gle-Ea r th ba sed metho d o f gener a ting da ily wea ther da ta in DSS A T fo r ma t fo r futur e clima te cha nge scena r io s, using A R4 da ta . CMI P5 da ta no t av a ila ble until ea r ly 20 1 2 . Po li cy ma k ers , civil so ciety, res ea rch ers in In d ia , Nep a l an d Ba n gla d es h , as well as do n o rs fro m Wo rld b a n k an d DF I D were en ga ged in dis cu s s io n aro u n d cli ma te ch a n ge p o li cy, res ea rch an d develo p men t; So u th Output 4.1.5 Mainstr ea m ing ada pta tion str a teg ies into nationa l policies, ag r icultur a l developm ent pla ns, and key reg iona l and g loba l pr ocesses rela ted to ag r icultur e and rur a l developm ent, food secur ity and clim a te cha ng e Output 4.1.6 Building of capa cities to eng a g e in g loba l policy making pr ocesses and adopt risk mana g em ent str a teg ies Na tio na l lev el pr io r ity pla nning meetings held in Uga nda , Na ir o bi and A ddis; One regio na l fa r mer s meeting o n clima te cha nge, agr icultur e and fo o d secur ity hed in Na ir o bi;O ne r egio na l lea r ning pa r tner ship wo r k sho p held in Na ir o bi; Design o f mo ck up website fo r the RLP; o ne co nfer ence o n clima te cha nge Ho u seh o l d a n d vil l a ge level ba sel i n e rep o rt s pro d u ced for five sit es in Ea st Afri ca ; Con su l t a n t s co n t ra ct ed to un d ert a ke orga n i z a t i o n a l su rveys in th e sit es Hou seh o l d ba sel i n es su rveys a n d vil l a ge su rveys co m p l et ed in IG P Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed O ne scena r io wo r k sho p o r ga nised (One scena r io co mmunica tio n co nsulta nt hir ed) ; Pr elimina r y discussio ns & agr eement with CORA F to lea d an excha nge pla tfo r m Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed 5 vil l a ge level ba sel i n e stu d y rep o rt s pro d u ced M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 3 Suite of downsca led clim a te data for the 20 3 0 s to 20 9 0 s, fir st fr om the AR 4 clim a te models and then fr om C M I P5 , for hom og enized applica tions in the Prog r a m . *O nline data repositor y of downsca led 1km pr esent and futur e clim a te pr ojections (C I AT) *C lim a te pr ojection maps to eva lua te futur e cr op suita bility (Biover sity) (AR 4 , 20 1 1 ; C M I P5 , 20 1 2 ) Data sets ava ila ble for downloa d via C C AFS website with appr opr ia te docum enta tion M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 2 . Prior ities der ived for downsca ling needs based on an over view of cur r ent downsca ling initia tives; New pr oducts based on innova tive methods com m issioned and tested, and methods com pa r ed and eva lua ted; Resea r ch repor ts pr oduced on novel downsca ling methods and their eva lua tion; at lea st one peer - r eviewed paper published on com pa r ison of differ ent methods for ag r icultur a l im pa ct modelling ; * Proof of concept for clim a te downsca ling methodolog y developed based on wavelets, multifr a cta ls and neur a l networ ks (C I P) (2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3 ) Two new pr oducts tested and eva lua ted. Two resea r ch repor ts com pleted and dissem ina ted. Peer - r eview paper published. Proof-of-concept com pleted and dissem ina ted M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 1 Reg iona l site cha r a cter iza tion and baseline data collection com pleted and ana lysed in thr ee tar g et reg ions at thr ee levels: household, villa g e, and institution; Synthesis repor t pr esents results of baseline sur vey of far m ing households re: soil, land, water , livestock, fisher ies and ag r ofor estr y mana g em ent str a teg ies for ada pting to a cha ng ing clim a te, and clim a te-r ela ted infor m a tion access, needs and uses, im plem ented acr oss 12 countr ies in over 20 0 villa g es and 5, 0 0 0 households. Synthesis repor t of institutiona l-level baseline wor k. (2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2 ) 13 site repor ts fr om baseline sur veys made ava ila ble on C C AFS and par tner websites; baseline data sha r ed widely and ava ila ble on C C AFS website; synthesis C C AFS repor t and jour na l ar ticle subm itted M ilestone 4. 1 . 5 . 1 Twenty scena r io and vulner a bility-focused food secur ity dia log ues and new nationa l and reg iona l ag r icultur a l policies incor por a ting clim a te cha ng e (2 0 1 3 ) Num ber of new nationa l and reg iona l policies and ag r icultur a l sector str a teg ies tha t incor por a te C C concer ns Objective 4.2 Assemble data and tools for analysis and planning Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Outcome 4.2 Improved frameworks, databases and methods for planning responses to climate change used by national agencies in at least 20 countries and by at least 10 key international and regional agencies activities for this milestone will be conducted by CIAT – see their activity plan under them e 4. 2 , 1 st row C I AT, Tyndell C enter ; Sta nfor d Univer sity M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 4 Reg iona l clim a te cha r a cter iza tion and eva lua tion of g loba l and reg iona l clim a te model per for m a nce for the thr ee initia l tar g et reg ions (2 0 1 1 ) R eg iona l repor ts tha t eva lua te differ ent clim a te models, for the thr ee initia l tar g et reg ions, fr om the per spective of ag r icultur a l im pa cts modelling R eg iona l clim a te cha r a cter isa tion and G C M / RC M per for m a nce eva lua ted for all tar g et reg ions O xfor d Univer sity 1 8 Co m p l et ed R epor ts com pleted: C lim a te cha ng e in C C AFS Reg ions: Recent Tr ends, C ur r ent Projections, C r op- clim a te Suita bility, and Prospects for Im pr oved C lim a te M odel Infor m a tion. Par t 1, W est Afr ica (W a shing ton & Hawcr oft). Par t 2, East Afr ica (W a shing ton & Pea r ce). Par t 3, The Indo-G a ng etic Pla in (New, Rahiz & Kar m a cha r ya ). Par t 4, Prog r ess Sta r ting up contr a cts for additiona l 2 reg ions IC R AF, Afsis 6 0 New clima te r epo r ts fo r SE A sia and La tin A mer ica defer r ed until activ ities sta r t up in these two new CCA FS r egio ns in la te 20 1 2 activities for this milestone will be conducted by ICRAF – see their activity plan under them e 4. 2 . , 2nd row Data assem bly and pr ovision at differ ent sca les, for im pa ct assessm ent: soils data , cr opla nd extent, ag r icultur a l system s cla ssifica tion, ag r icultur a l system s data ; IG P, W A, EA: Reg iona l site cha r a cter isa tion activities and data ba ses (soils, water , clim a te, other resour ces for ag r icultur e) I I ASA, FAO , Har vestC hoice, C onsor tium for Spa tia l Infor m a tion. IG P: BAR C , NAR C , IC AR , NG O s 3 4 2 5 0 3 0 7 0 Developm ent and im plem enta tion of a str a teg y for pr og r a m data stor a g e, mana g em ent, and dissem ina tion U Edinbur g h, other par tner s to be selected on a dir ect contr a cting basis. activities for this milestone will be conducted by CIAT – see their activity plan under them e 4. 2 . , 3r d row C I AT, Univer sity of Leeds; W or ld Bank activities for this milestone will be conducted by IRRI – see their activity plan under them e 4. 2 . , 1 st row I R R I , NAR ES in India M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 7 Scoping studies under ta ken on ag r icultur a l im pa ct model g aps and needs, par ticula r ly at plot and landsca pe sca les, and developm ent and testing wor k com m issioned and eva lua ted; Synthesis and resea r ch repor ts developed on key g aps and needs, and model docum enta tion (2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 3 )) M odel docum enta tion, synthesis and resea r ch repor ts com pleted and dissem ina ted actions ar ising fr om cr op model meta -a na lysis (Ag M I P) Household modeling review Ag M I P, ILR I 1 2 5 Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Ύ Development started on an “Agricultural Modelling Web Site”, a web resource to provide an information a nd discussion centr e for the g loba l ag r icultur a l im pa cts modelling com m unity and other s (Hutton Institute, Ag M I P). * Suppor t pr ovided for and par ticipa ting in the Ag M I P G loba l wor kshop, O ctober 20 1 1 (www. a g m ip. or g /?pa g e_id=9 7 7 ). Θ Review commissioned and carried out, ”A review on far m household modelling with a focus on clim a te change adaptation and mitigation” (M T van Wijk, M C Rufino, D Ena hor o, D Par sons, S Silvestr i, R O Str a teg y developm ent for deca da l & nea r -ter m clim a te inputs, and AR 5 scena r io clim a te data acquisition and ana lysis; I R I , O xfor d U, other par tner s to be selected 8 0 I R I exper t consulta tion M odel developm ent and eva lua tion: rang ela nd model (G -R a ng e); fur ther model scoping and lim ited model developm ent, to incr ea se capa bilities for tr a de-off and im pa ct ana lyses within C RP7 and g loba lly. C olor a do Sta te U, IFPR I , Ag M I P, IC ASA. O ther par tner s to be selected via dir ect contr a cting on basis of scoping wor k 1 0 5 6 0 4 0 4 0 Ύ Modelling software and report, “GͲ Ra nge: Dev elo pment and Use o f a Beta Global Rangeland Model” (R  oone, R T C o na nt & T E Hilinsk i, Co lo r a do Sta te Univ er sity ) , av a ila ble o n web. * Qua ntifica tio n o f the E Afr ica r egio na l scenarios undertaken with IFPRI’s IMPACT model and IIASA’s Globiom mo del. C ontr ibutions to milestone 4. 1 . 1 . 2 reg iona l scena r ios U O xfor d C ontr ibutions to milestone 4. 1 . 2 . 1 qua ntifica tion of vulner a bility assessm ent ILR I activities for this milestone will be conducted by ILRI – see their activity plan under them e 4. 2 . , 1 st row I LR I , II ASA activities for this milestone will be conducted by ICRAF – see their activity plan under them e 4. 2 . , 1 st row - M ethods and tools made ava ila ble widely to par tner s and on website IC R AF, Z ALF; PIK; ASB ; UNEP M odel docum enta tion, synthesis and resea r ch repor ts com pleted and dissem ina ted Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed 05 sit es ch a ra ct eri sa t i o n rep o rt s ed i t ed M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 8 Innova tive deca da l/nea r -ter m clim a te pr oducts developed to im pr ove nea r -ter m clim a te pr ediction and needs and oppor tunities sum m a r ized in resea r ch repor ts (2 0 1 5 ) I W MI co n t ra ct ed to devel o p , co l l a t e da t a b a ses for sou t h Asi a a t su b -n a t i o n a l sca l e on soi l s, cl i m a t e, a gri cu l t u ra l syst em s, a n d irri ga t i o n * W I SE soil pr ofile data ba se V 3 . 1 data filled and converted to DSSAT format. Report: “Strengthening Soil Data ba ses for C lim a te C ha ng e and Food Secur ity Modeling Applications” ( Chaves Θ G ,oogenboom, W SU ). Ύ Workshop on “Characterizing and salidating Global Land Cover Workshop” (:une 2011), involving IIASA (lea der ), C G I AR C onsor tium for Spa tia l Infor m a tion (C SI ), G r oup on Ear th O bser va tion (G EO ), the Ag r icultur a l M onitor ing C om m unities of Pra ctice (C O P), G O FC -G O LD and the Joint Resea r ch C entr e of the Eur opea n C om m ission (JR C ). M ater ia ls at www. iia sa . a c. a t/R esea r ch/FO R /lc/pr esenta tions. htm l, www. iia sa . a c. a t/R esea r ch/FO R /lc/br ea kout. htm l. Paper , "Building a C onsolida ted C om m unity G loba l C r opla nd M ap" (L See, S Fritz, P Thor nton, L You, I Becker -R eshef, C Justice, O Leo, M Her r er o), Ear thZ ine (in pr ess). * G loba l M apping of Intensive Livestock Production Systems (T Robinson Θ L D’Aietti, FAO), four qua r ter ly repor ts, to g o on web in ear ly 20 1 2 . Ύ Report of activities, “Developing generic tools for cha r a cter ising ag r icultur a l system s for clim a te and global change studies” (C Yuiros, M Rufino Θ M Her r er o, ILR I ). The tool, the Integ r a ted M odelling Pla tfor m for M ixed Anim a l C r op System s (I M PAC T- Developm ent and initia tion of the C C AFS Nea r -Ter m C lim a te Project, a 3-yea r cr oss-them e (T1 and T4 ) initia tive based at Univer sity of C ape Town with the objectives of building a consor tium of inter na tiona l par tner s, under ta king explor a tor y resea r ch on nea r - ter m clim a te cha ng e, and pr oviding pr elim ina r y ana lysis of C M I P5 and C O R DEX modelling pr ojections over the C C AFS focus reg ions. M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 3 Suite of downsca led clim a te data for the 20 3 0 s to 20 9 0 s, fir st fr om the AR 4 clim a te models and then fr om C M I P5 , for hom og enized applica tions in the Prog r a m . *O nline data repositor y of downsca led 1km pr esent and futur e clim a te pr ojections (C I AT) *C lim a te pr ojection maps to eva lua te futur e cr op suita bility (Biover sity) (AR 4 , 20 1 1 ; C M I P5 , 20 1 2 ) Data sets ava ila ble for downloa d via C C AFS website with appr opr ia te docum enta tion M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 5 Reg iona l clim a te cha r a cter iza tion and eva lua tion of g loba l and reg iona l clim a te model per for m a nce for additiona l tar g et reg ions. *Rem ote sensing data ba ses and maps of veg eta tion conditions and recent histor ica l cha ng es in Afr ica developed (I C R AF) (2 0 1 3 ) R eg iona l repor ts tha t eva lua te differ ent clim a te models, for additiona l tar g et reg ions, fr om the per spective of ag r icultur a l im pa cts modelling Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Un co m p l et ed Co n t ra ct ed IF PR I to devel o p a p p ro a ch es for pri o ri t i z i n g a d a p t a t i o n op t i o n s a n d co n d u ce ca se stu d i es a t IG P ben ch m a rk sit es M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 6 Data ba ses for soils, histor ica l wea ther , ag r icultur a l system s, and natur a l resour ces in the tar g et reg ions eva lua ted, g ap-filled, colla ted and made ava ila ble on the web, following the developm ent and im plem enta tion of an appr opr ia te data mana g em ent policy. *W or king ver sion of cr op pr oduction sur fa ces developed to model biophysica l responses to envir onm enta l cha ng e (I FPR I ). *Enha nced niche-ba sed appr oa ches developed and published for ana lysis of clim a te cha ng e im pa cts on major /m inor cr ops (C I AT) *Sim ula tion models on yields and em issions in rice pr oduction system s assessed for their use in decision suppor t system s (I R R I ) (2 0 1 2 -2 0 1 4 ) Data repor ts ar e wr itten up and made ava ila ble on C C AFS website, for the following : soils pr ofile infor m a tion; histor ica l daily wea ther data ; g loba l ag r icultur a l system s data layer s upda ted and refined; and ag r icultur a l system s data collected and colla ted for sever a l hundr ed households at the C C AFS sites Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed V i l l a ge level ba sel i n e stu d y M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 9 A loosely-integ r a ted assessm ent toolkit developed and im plem ented tha t can be used to ana lyze likely effects of specific ada pta tion and mitig a tion options in 3 initia l tar g et reg ions; hig h-level eng a g em ent with key user s to build capa city in use of tools and data . Repor ts and meta -da ta ba ses developed of ava ila ble models, tools and data . *G LO B I O M -Livestock model used for g loba l integ r a ted assessm ent of livestock issues (I LR I ). *Enha nced/inter linked set of data and qua ntita tive tools including spa tia l data ba ses, deta iled mapping of food system cha r a cter istics and hum a n welfa r e, deta iled cha r a cter iza tion of im pa ct of cha ng es and uncer ta inty on g loba l food system s (I FPR I ). Integ r a ted assessm ent fr a m ewor k and toolkit for ana lyzing likely effects of specific ada pta tion and mitig a tion options in thr ee tar g et reg ions (I C R AF) -2 0 1 3 R epor ts and meta -da ta ba ses com pleted and made publicly ava ila ble Postdoc IG P and capa city building in W A and EA ???? Developing and testing decision tools for clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion in sm a llholder ag r icultur e thr oug h com m unity based action resea r ch; C om petitive call tar g eting nationa l and loca l level actor s such as wom en g r oups, far m er s and C BO s; selection cr iter ia to be developed; 6 0 3 0 Str a teg y developm ent/r eview for clim a te cha ng e com m unica tions; C om petitive calls R eview of socia l science methods and tools rela ted to clim a te cha ng e decision making Develop mater ia ls, methods in g ener a ting clim a te cha ng e data to be used in reg iona l capa city developm ent activities tha t will influence policy decisions on clim a te cha ng e. IG P: W or kshop and atta chm ent tr a ining s for under sta nding and modeling biophysica l-socio-econom ic-policy inter a ctions G loba l Land Project under ESSP, PBL, Nether la nds, M I T Joint Prog r a m on the Science and Policy of G loba l C ha ng e, Integ r a ted Assessm ent M odelling C om m unity. IG P: IFPR I , ESSP, FAO , II ASA, BAR C , NAR C , IC AR , NG O 1 7 0 1 0 0 5 0 Enha ncem ents of the IM PAC T model (the IM PAC T Im pr ovem ent Task) to include im pr oved dem a nd and the supply system s tha t incor por a te theor etica l consistency of under lying par a m eter s, links to G E models to and fr om IM PAC T, and explicit welfa r e mea sur es and technolog y adoption modelling   FANR PAN, ASAR EC A, C O R AF C I M M YT, IRR I , ILR I , C I P, IC R AF, IC R I SAT, C I AT, Nationa l Academ y of Ag r icultur a l Resea r ch M ana g em ent (NAAR M ), India , Nationa l C entr e for Ag r icultur a l Econom ics and Policy Resea r ch, India 4 9 0 Testing policy fr a m ewor ks tha t integ r a te clim a te cha ng e into ag r icultur e and nationa l developm ent thr oug h nationa l institutions C om petitive call tar g eting nationa l and nationa l level actor s and institutions 3 0 M ilestone 4. 3 . 1 . 2 G loba l and reg iona l assessm ents of clim a te cha ng e im pa cts on ag r icultur a l system s, nationa l and inter na tiona l food secur ity com pleted; Finding s included in paper s, repor ts, cha pter s in g loba l (e. g . IPC C , Biodiver sity integ r a ted assessm ent) and reg iona l (e. g . Afr ica n Union) assessm ents (2 0 1 2 ) Pa per s and repor ts com pleted and dissem ina ted. C ita tions of C C AFS outputs in par tner s' repor ts. C ha pter s of g loba l and reg iona l assessm ent repor ts integ r a te finding s Pr oduce countr y repor ts for W est and East Afr ica on assessing the vulner a bility of ag r icultur e to clim a te cha ng e FANR PAN, ASAR EC A, C O R AF Pa r tia lly com pleted The individua l countr y repor ts wer e com pleted in ear ly 20 1 1 . The pr ocess of publlishing IFPR I resea r ch monog r a phs based on the repor ts was beg un in the fir st qua r ter of 20 1 1 . Dela ys in the rewr iting pr ocess mea nt the monog r a phs wer e not subm itted to the IFPR I review pr ocess until 4th qua r ter . The review pr ocess itselft takes 6 months so publica tion is expected som etim e in the 2nd or 3r d qua r ter of 20 1 2 . M ilestone 4. 3 . 4 . 1 Set of infor m a tion pr oducts developed and dissem ina ted to key ag encies and sta keholder s including (1 ) resea r ch monog r a phs and policy br iefs on clim a te cha ng e; (2 ) enha nced, and inter linked data sets and qua ntita tive tools such as spa tia l data ba ses, deta iled mapping of food system s and cha r a cter iza tion of likely clim a te cha ng e im pa cts on ag r icultur a l system s, and (3 ) pr om ising ada pta tion and mitig a tion options and tools; Publica tions and tools deliver ed to individua ls responsible for reg iona l policy pr og r a m s and inter ventions tha t foster clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion and mitig a tion (2 0 1 2 ) R esea r ch monog r a phs and policy br iefs com pleted and dissem ina ted. Data sets and qua ntita tive tools pr oduced and made publicly ava ila ble. Infor m a tion pr oducts used in reg iona l pr og r a m s and policy str a teg ies C ontinue enha ncem ent of Sta tpla net (i. e. displa y nationa l data with specific indica tor s, view reg iona l maps, custom iza tion to inter fa ce and visua liza tion, etc), develop web inter fa ce between G AM S and IM PAC T model, and countr y by countr y policy tr end ana lysis. These tools pr ovide policy maker s and other s with intuitive and str a ig htfor wa r d access to com plex modeling results tha t ar e other wise the dom a in only of exper ts G AM S C or p. , Sta tPla net Developer , Am ster da m O ptim iza tion M odeling G r oup LLC , 1 9 0 Pa r tia lly com pleted A beta ver sion of the new Sta tpla net inter fa ce was com pleted in 20 1 1 . The fina l ver sion is expected to be com pleted at the end of the fir st qua r ter of 20 1 2 . Output 4.3 .3 Differ entia l im pa ct on socia l g r oups (g ender , livelihood categ or y etc) of clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion and mitig a tion options identified, eva lua ted and com m unica ted Output 4.3 .4 Likely effects of specific ada pta tion and mitig a tion options and nationa l policies (including for socia lly differ entia l g r oups) com m unica ted to key loca l, nationa l and reg iona l ag encies and sta keholder s Output 4.3 .2 Likely effects of specific ada pta tion and mitig a tion options, nationa l policies (na tur a l resour ce, tr a de, macr oeconom ic, inter na tiona l ag r eem ents) ana lyzed Outcome 4.3 New knowledge on how alternative policy and program options impact agriculture and food security under climate change incorporated into strategy development by national agencies in at least 20 countries and by at least 10 key international and regional agencies Output 4.3 .1 Tools developed and clim a te cha ng e im pa cts assessed at g loba l and reg iona l levels on ag r icultur a l system s (pr oducer s, consum er s, natur a l resour ces), nationa l/r eg iona l econom ies, and inter na tiona l tr a nsa ctions Un co m p l et ed On e sta keh o l d er in fl u en ce m a p p i n g worksh o p hel d in Na i ro b i , Ken ya On e sci en t i st tra i n ed in IMPACT m od el l i n g, a dra ft pa p er pro d u ced on In d i a sp eci fi c im p a ct s Th e m od el im p ro vem en t pro cess is on goi n g wit h pa rt i ci p a t i o n fro m 7 CGIAR cen t ers. A web versi o n of th e IMPACT m od el wa s ori gin a l l y su p p o sed to be co m p l et ed in th e 4th qu a rt er bu t is now exp ect ed in th e 1st qu a rt er 201 2 . Th e mod el im p ro vem en t s ha ve been used wit h th e Ea st Afri ca scen a ri o s exerci se. Com p l et ed Co n t ra ct ed IF PR I to devel o p a p p ro a ch es for pri o ri t i z i n g a d a p t a t i o n op t i o n s a n d co n d u ce ca se stu d i es a t IG P ben ch m a rk sit es On e worksh o p on In t ra - regio n a l lea rn i n g a n d tech n o l o gy tra n sfer a s a too l for ad a p t a t i o n to cl i m a t e ch a n ge in Ea st Afri ca n Dryl a n d s hel d in Ad d i s, Et h i o p i a . M ilestone 4. 2 . 2 . 1 Studies com pleted in selected sites in 3 initia l tar g et reg ions, using differ ent methodolog ies including visua lisa tion techniques, tha t outline the per ceptions of differ ent sta keholder s on clim a te cha ng e and the im pa cts it has had and may have in the futur e on the resour ces tha t they have contr ol over ; Pilot study repor ts on target groups’ perceptions of climate cha ng e and other dr iver s of cha ng e in their loca tions (2 0 1 1 -2 0 1 2 ) Pa rt i a l l y co m p l et ed V i l l a ge level ba sel i n e stu d y M ilestone 4. 3 . 1 . 1 Br oa d-sca le modeling tools developed to assess clim a te cha ng e im pa cts on yields, pr oduction, tr a de, pr ices, and var ious hum a n well- being mea sur es developed or enha nced; models str uctur e desig n vetted by exper ts. (2 0 1 1 ) I nitia l set of modeling tools com pleted and made publicly ava ila ble M ilestone 4. 2 . 1 . 9 A loosely-integ r a ted assessm ent toolkit developed and im plem ented tha t can be used to ana lyze likely effects of specific ada pta tion and mitig a tion options in 3 initia l tar g et reg ions; hig h-level eng a g em ent with key user s to build capa city in use of tools and data . Repor ts and meta -da ta ba ses developed of ava ila ble models, tools and data . *G LO B I O M -Livestock model used for g loba l integ r a ted assessm ent of livestock issues (I LR I ). *Enha nced/inter linked set of data and qua ntita tive tools including spa tia l data ba ses, deta iled mapping of food system cha r a cter istics and hum a n welfa r e, deta iled cha r a cter iza tion of im pa ct of cha ng es and uncer ta inty on g loba l food system s (I FPR I ). Integ r a ted assessm ent fr a m ewor k and toolkit for ana lyzing likely effects of specific ada pta tion and mitig a tion options in thr ee tar g et reg ions (I C R AF) -2 0 1 3 R epor ts and meta -da ta ba ses com pleted and made publicly ava ila ble Output 4.2.2 Socia lly-differ entia ted decision aids and infor m a tion developed and com m unica ted for differ ent sta keholder s Objective 4.3 Refine frameworks for policy analysis M ilestone 4. 3 . 4 . 4 M ajor repor t tar g eted to C O P1 7 , tha t lays out clim a te cha ng e im pa cts, ada pta tion and mitig a tion options and nationa l policies; Resea r ch monog r a phs and policy br iefs on clim a te cha ng e ada pta tion and mitig a tion developed; M ater ia ls dissem ina ted at Ag & Rur a l Developm ent Day 20 1 1 (2 0 1 1 ) .* Input in the M P7 hig h level repor t on the ag r icultur a l wor k pr og r a m ; Pla tfor m to ensur e coa sta l com m unities concer n ar e included in UNFC C C neg otia tions (W or ldFish) (2 0 1 1 ) R epor t, monog r a phs, policy br iefs com pleted and dissem ina ted. Docum enta tion of web tr a ffic (http://webusa g e. cg net. com /); cita tions in pr ess and schola r ly ar ticles Activities for this center will be conducted by C G I AR center s C I P, C I AT, IFPR I , IC R I SAT, C I M M YT, IC R AF, IW M I , IC AR DA Co mp leted Th is activity wa s res tru ctu red to be a series of rep o rts on cli ma te ch a n ge effects on agricu ltu re p rep a red b y th e BRI CS co u n tries p lu s th e US an d In d o n es ia . Th es e rep o rts were b a s ed on a co mmo n ou tli n e an d set of res u lts fro m th e IMPAC T mo d el. Th ey were origin a ll y p res en ted at th e CAAS -I F PRI co n feren ce on foo d secu rity an d cli ma te ch a n ge in Beijin g in No vemb er 201 1 . Th e rep o rt au th o rs agreed on a set of reco mmen d a tio n s to th e cli ma te ch a n ge n ego tia to rs in Du rb a n . Th e M ilestone 4. 3 . 4 . 6 To ena ble rur a l poor , wom en and men, to have better access to hig h value com m odity mar kets for clim a te cha ng e mitig a tion and other envir onm enta l resour ces, suppor t for up-sca ling and follow-up investm ents including (1 ) im plem enta tion of household sur veys, (2 ) developm ent of modules to assess g over na nce factor s fr om the per spective of differ ent value cha ng e actor s, (3 ) identifica tion of inter ventions to im pr ove access to mar kets for clim a te cha ng e mitig a tion, (4 ) eng a g em ent with networ k or policy advisor s, policy resea r cher s and pr og r a m im plem enter s; (5 ) hig hlig ht the need to act on the clim a te cha lleng e while suppor ting other im por ta nt rur a l developm ent and envir onm enta l g oa ls thr oug h policy for a and dia log ues (at Reg iona l For a and Launch C onfer ence) (2 0 1 5 ) Sur veys com pleted, sum m a r ized and results sha r ed. G over na nce factor modules and inter ventions developed and dissem ina ted. Br iefing s deliver ed to 30 0 individua ls repr esenting 30 or g a niza tions. C C AFS mater ia ls sha r ed thr oug h 20 policy events Ana lysis of policy issues, in par ticula r those rela ted to im pr oving access by sm a ll far m er s to new mar ket oppor tunities in ag r icultur e, especia lly for hig h value pr oducts, and for clim a te cha ng e mitig a tion and other envir onm enta l ser vices M oFA (G ha na ), M inistr y of Ag r icultur e and W ater Resour ce in Nig er ia , Nig er ia Ag r icultur a l Policy Suppor t Facility, Univer sities in Afr ica and South Asia , G over nm ent Ag encies in Afr ica , Resea r ch Institutions U n co mp leted