Coffee in the Age of Climate Change: Risks & Potential Impacts Reference deck summarizing research from technical partners Prepared by Root Capital 2018 Introduction Objectives & sources How to use (and not use) information on projected climate impacts Introduction: Objectives & Sources Objectives. This deck summarizes research on the impacts of climate change on coffee production in key Root Capital geographies. The deck is designed as a reference document for a layman audience: staff of Root Capital and of peers in the Counsel for Smallholder Agricultural Finance (CSAF). The deck is a living document and will be updated periodically. Sources. Information comes primarily from Root Capital partners: the coffee&climate Initiative of Hanns R. Neumann Stiftung (HRNS), the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), and the Rainforest Alliance. Please use the sources cited at the bottom of each slide when referencing information. Sources can be found in this Box folder for CSAF members. Contacts. Please contact Elizabeth Teague (eteague@rootcapital.org) with questions and requests for more information or partner contact details. Introduction: How to use (and not use) information on projected climate impacts. Information on future climate conditions come from computer models simulating the interactions of physical processes in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and on land that drive climate. Scientists often run a combination of models – generally the CMIP5 ensemble model used by the UN IPCC – and average the results. When using projection data, keep in mind the following caveats: • Projections, not guarantees. Climate models carry a degree of uncertainty, due to gaps in our understanding of climate science, and should not be used as exact predictions of the future. Rather, models provide directional insights into our likely future under a business-as-usual scenario. • Regional, not site-specific. Model uncertainty increases with geographic granularity, meaning model outcomes are best suited to projecting impacts at a regional or perhaps national level rather than supporting decision-making at a sub-national level. While climate maps may show data at a resolution of square miles, map users should view data as directional rather than an exact prediction of site-specific outcomes. Maps can identify regional trends, the specifics of which should be validated locally through field work. • Multiple layers of uncertainty. When evaluating climate impacts on a particular crop, we add another layer of uncertainty due to our limited understanding of the physiology of tropical crops like coffee. We simply do not know how the coffee tree will respond to certain climate impacts, or whether “climate-ready” varieties or traits exist within the coffee gene pool that could be bred to withstand climate change. Executive Summary Overview: Climate change threatens global coffee production. Climate Risk: Climate change will likely reduce and shift the area suitable for coffee production, affecting all coffee origins. Climate Risk: Projected changes in suitability will vary by geography, with Latin America most negatively impacted and East Africa least. Climate Risk: Climate change likely will also reduce coffee quality and yields in areas retaining suitability. Climate Resilience: Adaptation practices can help farmers in areas suitable for coffee prepare for climate hazards. Climate Resilience: Diversification or transition to alternative livelihood strategies will be needed in areas no longer suitable. Overview: Climate change threatens global coffee production. Climate change will have a strong negative impact on coffee production worldwide. Higher temperatures could halve the area suitable for coffee (note model outputs range from 20-85%), while changing temperature and precipitation patterns will reduce productivity and quality in areas that remain suitable. Some climate impacts are already present (e.g., the severe drought in Central America between 2014 and 2017, irregular rains throughout the coffeelands that interfere with flowering). Negative impacts will intensify through 2050s. Coffee enterprises and farmers will need to adapt to changing climatic conditions to remain viable. Most coffee farmers will need to adopt practices that build farm resilience to heat, drought, and irregularly timed or excessive rains. Farmers located in marginal production areas may need to transition to alternative, more “climate-ready” crops. Coffee businesses may need to adapt their sourcing strategy, prepare for more severe and/or frequent supply chain disruptions, or invest in resilient processing and storage infrastructure. Given the lifecycle of the coffee tree, which requires several years to mature, businesses and farmers should start investing in adaptation or transition to cope with current impacts and prepare for future changes in climatic conditions. Climate Risk: Climate change will likely reduce and shift the area suitable for coffee production, affecting all coffee origins (1/2). The area suitable for Arabica production will likely decline by 49% by 2050, while area suitable for Robusta will likely decline by 54%. All current coffee-producing countries will be affected; all will maintain some suitable area; a subset of countries may see slight suitable gains. See the section “Climate Change Risk: Risk Profiles for Select Geographies” for details. Rising temperatures appear to be a main driver of projected suitability changes. Coffee, particularly Arabica, thrives within a relatively narrow temperature window (see slide 48). The projected average global warming of 2°C would push many coffee-growing areas outside coffee’s “climate envelope,” making production economically unviable. Some local modeling studies, however, suggest precipitation declines as a primary driver of suitability changes in certain origins, including Mexico. Climate impacts will be heavily linked to altitude. As temperatures rise, the area suitable for coffee will migrate up-slope to cooler areas. Within 5°–10° of the equator, elevations below 1000 masl will likely not be suitable for coffee production by the 2050s. Elsewhere, the suitability zone will likely migrate several hundred meters up-slope. Source: Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014- 1306-x; Silva, R. et al. Vulnerabilidad de la Producción del Café (Coffea arabica L.) al Cambio Climático Global, Terra Latinoamericana, vol. 31, núm. 4, octubre-diciembre, 2013, pp. 305-313. http://www.redalyc.org/pdf/573/57329629005.pdf. Climate Risk: Climate change will likely reduce and shift the area suitable for coffee production, affecting all coffee origins (2/2). Source: Laurence Jassogne, Peter Laderach, Piet Van Asten, “The Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee in Uganda: Lessons from a Case Study in the Rwenzori Mountains,” Oxfam Research Reports, April 2013. Climate Risk: Changes in suitability will vary by geography, with Latin America most negatively impacted and East Africa least (1/3). Climate impacts will vary significantly across origins, creating “winners” and “losers.” • “Biggest losers.” Mesoamerica (particularly El Salvador and Nicaragua) will be most severely impacted, with countries projected to lose 20-30% of suitable area by the 2050s. Brazil, India, Tanzania, Uganda, and Vietnam may also see impacts in this range. • “Intermediate losers.” The Andes, southern Africa and Madagascar, and Indonesia will see intermediate impacts. • “Relative winners.” East Africa (excluding Uganda, which may see more severe impacts) and the Pacific (excluding Papua New Guinea) will be the least impacted – and may even experience net gains in suitable area. Some countries may compensate for lost coffee land by shifting production higher. • Farmers in Colombia, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, and Mexico, for example, may be able to migrate up-slope. Farmers in lower-elevation countries like Brazil, El Salvador, and Nicaragua do not have this option. • However, land at higher altitudes is often forested and/or protected, raising concerns of ecosystem degradation. For example, land above 1800m in Honduras is protected. Source: Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584- 014-1306-x Source: Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584- 014-1306-x Climate Risk: Changes in suitability will vary by geography, with Latin America most negatively impacted and East Africa least (2/3). Figure 4. Suitability change in main Coffea arabica growing countries by 2050s. Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, Läderach P, Bunn C, Obersteiner M, Schroth G (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155 Climate Risk: Changes in suitability will vary by geography, with Latin America most negatively impacted and East Africa least (3/3). Climate Risk: Climate change likely will also reduce coffee quality and yields in areas retaining suitability (1/2). Areas remaining suitable for coffee production will still see negative impacts, namely an increase in “climate hazards” that threaten coffee productivity and quality. Climate hazards are specific, potentially damaging hydro-meterological events or phenomena associated with climate change. Examples include prolonged droughts or periods of excessive temperatures. The concept of climate hazards allows us to break the complex phenomenon of climate change down into more discrete (and perhaps more manageable) risks. Key climate hazards for coffee include high temperatures; intermittent, unseasonal, or prolonged rain; and prolonged drought. These hazards affect tree growth and fruit development, reducing overall yields or quality. Certain hazards also increase the incidence of pests and diseases, like coffee berry borer. Many coffee origins already experience an increase in the frequency or intensity of climate hazards due to climate change. Examples include irregular flowering due to unseasonal rains in Uganda and other parts of East Africa; severe, multi-year droughts affecting yields in Central America; and excessive rainfall events in Colombia. Climate Risk: Climate change likely will also reduce coffee quality and yields in areas retaining suitability (2/2). Source: coffee&climate Sourcebook For farmers with land whose suitability will decline, but not prohibitively so, adaptation is crucial. “Many adaptation strategies consist of… “no-regret” measures that would be beneficial regardless of the magnitude of climate change. Improved agronomy and sustainable management of resources – including the use of drought- and heat-resistant varieties, irrigation, and shade cover – are good first steps” (Laderach et al, CIAT, 2010) Beyond no-regrets measures, farmers need to adopt practices that address climate hazards specific to their zone. One key example is agroforestry (shade) production practices, which can reduce temperatures in the coffee canopy by 2-4°C, prevent tree damage from severe weather events, and conserve soil moisture. (Farmers will need, however, to take into account increased nutrient and water competition between shade and coffee trees.) Other examples of adaptation practices are listed on slide 15. Finally, farmers and their value chain partners can invest in risk reduction or transfer mechanisms, like weather-indexed crop insurance. Climate Resilience: Adaptation practices can help farmers in areas suitable for coffee prepare for climate change (1/3). Source: Läderach, P. et al. 2010. Mesoamerican coffee: Building a climate change adaptation strategy. CIAT Policy Brief no. 2. CIAT; Jassogne L., Laderach P., Van Asten, P., “The Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee in Uganda: Lessons from a Case Study in the Rwenzori Mountains,” Oxfam Research Reports, April 2013 Climate Resilience: Adaptation practices can help farmers in areas suitable for coffee prepare for climate hazards (2/3). Source: coffee&climate Sourcebook Climate Resilience: Adaptation practices can help farmers in areas suitable for coffee prepare for climate hazards (3/3). When adoption new practices, farmers and partners should consider using a “stepwise” approach. Coffee smallholders generally do not use the broad package of agricultural practices recommended by extensionists, in large part due to limited resources. The International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA) proposes breaking the package into smaller, incremental and sequential steps – e.g., using a “stepwise approach” – to make the adoption of new practices more affordable and practical for farmers. The stepwise approach mixes basic good agricultural practices with more novel practices responding to specific climate risks. The first step promotes relatively low-cost, no-regrets practices that should boost productivity and lay the groundwork for larger and more complex investments. Steps correspond roughly to one cropping season, although it may take farmers more than one year to implement each step. The specific practices within each step can be adapted for different contexts, based on farmer demographics and environmental/climate risks. For those interested, IITA has an app that guides Ugandan Robusta coffee farmers through the stepwise investment process for their farms. Source: Laurence Jassogne, David Mukasa, Hannington Bukomeko, Elizabeth Kemigisha, Diana Kirungi, Onno Giller, and Piet van Asten , “Redesigning Delivery: Boosting Adoption of Coffee Management Practices in Uganda,” CCAFS Info Note, April 2017. Climate Resilience: Diversification or transition to alterative livelihood strategies will be needed in areas no longer suitable. Farmers in areas no longer suitable for coffee production face farm diversification or a total transition to another crop or off-farm livelihood strategy. In many cases, farmers may use diversification as an intermediary step toward eventual transition, progressively replacing coffee with more “climate-ready” crops until they have a fully transitioned farm. Robusta coffee could replace Arabica in certain regions. The Robusta variety can generally withstand warmer temperatures than Arabica, making it a candidate for lower-altitude farms, although the variety remains susceptible to drought. Farmers would lose price premiums associated with Arabica’s cup quality. One potential solution is grafting Arabica coffee trees onto Robusta roots (resulting in “Arabustas”) to blend the rigor of Robusta with the flavor profile of Arabica – World Coffee Research and others are testing this innovation. Where Robusta is not an option, cocoa could become an important alterative due to its higher heat tolerance than coffee and similar production system. Indeed, lower-altitude coffee farmers in Nicaragua, Peru, and elsewhere are already swapping some of their coffee trees for cocoa. However, cocoa requires more water than coffee, making it a poor choice for regions threatened by drought. Climate Change Risk: Risk Profiles for Select Geographies Introduction to Climate Risk Maps Mesoamerica: Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua South America: Colombia, Peru East Africa: Uganda Asia-Pacific: Indonesia Introduction to Climate Risk Maps: Maps depict the severity of expected changes to crop suitability, using a “stoplight” system. Scientists created a tiered threat framework to distinguish among degrees of impact on crop production. The following maps use this framework to depict the severity of expected climate impacts on coffee production in specific geographies. • Opportunity zone. Area will likely improve in suitability for target crop production. Production may shift from transform to opportunities zones. • Cope / minor adapt zone. Area will likely remain suitable for target crop production. Farmers can address shifts in climate conditions with incremental practice changes. • Adapt zone. Area will likely remain suitable for target crop production, although suitability will decline. In some cases, area may shift from ideal to marginal. Farmers will need to adapt their practices to remain commercially viable. • Uncertainty zone. Model disagreement is high, usually driven by uncertain precipitation trends. Farmers will likely need to adapt their practices to remain commercially viable. • Transform zone. Area will no longer be suitable for target crop production without major, perhaps uneconomical changes in practice. Farmers may find it more viable to transition to alternative crops or livelihoods strategies, or to migrate. Source: USAID Feed the Future Learning Community for Supply Chain Resilience, “An Introduction to Assessing Climate Resilience in Smallholder Supply Chains,” 2018. Mesoamerica Mesoamerica Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Source: CIAT +2C in average annual temperature Up to 30% decrease in area suitable for Arabica Elevation suitable for Arabica moves from 400-2000 masl 800-2500 masl (note higher land may not be available) Modest decrease, but fewer dry months [Mesoamerica] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely significantly reduce the area suitable for Arabica production. Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, et al. (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155; Bunn, C. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x [Honduras] Climate risk: Historical record show warmer and generally drier conditions. Source: Bunn, C., Lundy, M., Läderach, P., Girvetz, E., Castro, F. (2018). Climate Smart coffee in Honduras. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Cali. CO. 27 p.; https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/climate-smart-coffee-honduras#.XA_hcGhKhPY. Source: CIAT, “Climate-Smart Coffee in Honduras,” forthcoming ; Ovalle-Rivera O, et al. (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155 Climate models suggest a warming trend of ~1.6-1.9°C by the 2050s, combined with a variable changes in precipitation. Honduras could lose ~30% of its area suitable for coffee production by the 2050s. Eastern Honduras will likely be most affected due to lower elevation. Central Honduras will likely see more moderate impacts. Western Honduras will be least affected, although, again, lower altitudes may need to transition out of coffee. [Honduras] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely significantly reduce the area suitable for Arabica production. Area suitable for Arabica production will migrate up-slope ~200 masl. However, opportunities to shift production to higher elevations will be limited, as forested land above 1800 masl is protected under Honduran law. [Mexico] Climate risk: Future projections show warmer and drier conditions. Climate models suggest a strong warming trend. Projections suggest temperature increases of ~1°C in southern Mexico and up to 2°C in the arid north by 2030, compared to the 19th century, with an additional 1°C warming by mid-century. Decreasing rainfall across much of the country will likely cause water stress and droughts. Important food-production states like Sinaloa, Jalisco, Michoacán, Veracruz, and Tabasco may see particularly severe drops in average annual precipitation of -100 mm or more. Coffee-growing areas may see a reduction of average annual precipitation of - 70mm, although the number of dry months may remain unchanged. Source: World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Mexico. CSA Country Profiles for Latin America Series. 2nd ed. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro en Áreas de Cultivo de Café en Nicaragua, CIAT, 2012. [Mexico] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely significantly reduce the area suitable for Arabica production. Mexico could lose ~20% of its area suitable for coffee production by the 2050s. Chiapas and Oaxaca will see the greatest declines in suitability. Veracruz will see more modest impacts. Area suitable for Arabica production will migrate up-slope, from 600-1700 masl today to around 1200-2400 masl by 2050 – however, there may be no land available at these higher altidues . Areas under 1000 masl will likely suffer the greatest declines in suitability by mid-century. Source: Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro en Áreas de Cultivo de Café en Mexico, CIAT, 2012; World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Mexico. CSA Country Profiles for Latin America Series. 2nd ed. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group [Nicaragua] Climate risk: Historical record and future projections show warmer and drier conditions. Historical data shows a strong warming trend. Daytime temperatures have risen ~0.40°C per decade in deforested areas, an above-average increase compared to other tropical areas. Warming will continue into the second half of the century. Models project increases in the annual mean temperatures of ~1°C+ by 2020s and ~2°C by the 2050s. Decreasing rainfall causes longer dry seasons and droughts. In north-central Nicaragua, the dry season now lasts up to 6-7 months. Models project annual rainfall declines of 50mm+ in some regions, a decease of ~7%. Source: World Bank; CIAT. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Nicaragua. CSA Country Profiles for Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean Series. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro en Áreas de Cultivo de Café en Nicaragua, CIAT, 2012; Läderach et al, 2010, “Mesoamerican coffee,” CIAT. [Nicaragua] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely significantly reduce the area suitable for Arabica production. Nicaragua could lose up to 85% of area suitable for coffee production by the 2050s. Departments with the largest anticipated losses (up to 30%) are Carazo, Managua, and Matagalpa. Higher elevations in the departments of Jinotega and Matagalpa will likely see the best conditions for Arabica coffee. Cocoa could become an important alterative to coffee due to its higher heat tolerance than Arabica coffee and similar production system. Indeed, cocoa suitability may increase in the eastern part of the country. Source: Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro en Áreas de Cultivo de Café en Nicaragua, CIAT, 2012; World Bank; CIAT. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Nicaragua. CSA Country Profiles for Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean Series. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; Rahn et al, CIAT, 2013. South America South America Colombia Peru +2C in average annual temperature 16-20% decrease in area suitable for Arabica Elevation suitable for Arabica moves from 500-1500 masl 1000-2800 masl (note higher land may not be available) Up overall, mostly during rainy season [South America] Climate risk: Heat and water stress will likely reduce the area suitable for Arabica production. Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, et al. (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155; Bunn, C. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x Source: World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Colombia. CSA Country Profiles for Latin America Series. 2nd. ed. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal at http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm [Colombia] Climate risk: Historical record and future projections show warmer conditions with mixed rainfall trends. Historical data shows a strong warming trend. Daytime temperatures rose ~1°C across most of the country over the last 20 years or so. Warming will continue. Models project additional increases in the annual mean temperatures of 0.7-1.8°C+ by 2030. Precipitation trends are uncertain. Parts of the country, particularly in the north, may see 10%+ reductions in average annual rainfall by the 2030s, leading to water stress. Other areas, however, may see significant increases in rainfall, perhaps leading to flooding and landslides. The timing and intensity of precipitation events will likely also change. Source: World Bank; CIAT; CATIE. 2015. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Peru. CSA Country Profiles for Latin America Series. 2nd. ed. Washington D.C.: The World Bank Group; the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal at http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm [Peru] Climate risk: Historical record and future projections show warmer conditions with mixed rainfall trends. Historical data shows a warming trend. Daytime temperatures rose up to ~1°C across most of the country over the last 20 years or so. Many areas saw fewer cool days and nights. Warming will continue. Models project additional increases in the annual mean temperatures of 1- 1.7°C+ by the 2030s. Precipitation trends and projections are mixed. Rainfall has increased along the northern coast and mountains during the last 20 years, but has declined in the tropical forest zone and the central altiplano. These trends are projected to continue more or less along the same trajectory. Areas may see precipitation changes of 10-20% by the 2030s. Source: CIAT, unpublished [Peru] Climate risk: Heat will likely reduce the area suitable for Arabica, although Peru will fare better than most (2030s). Source: CIAT, unpublished [Peru] Climate risk: Heat will likely reduce the area suitable for Arabica, although Peru will fare better than most (2050s). Source: CIAT, unpublished [Peru] Climate risk: In remaining suitable areas, prevailing climate conditions will shift, requiring some adaptation. Current Coffee Climate Zones (2016) Projected Coffee Climate Zones (2030) Source: Luis Gomero Osorio, “Identificación, selección y descripción de las mejores prácticas agronómicas que promuevan la resiliencia contra el cambio climático, “ Rainforest Alliance internal report, 2017. [Peru] Climate risk: During focus groups, farmers confirmed hotter, drier weather with more severe events in Cajamarca. Climate Conditions Observed Changes Observed Impacts on Coffee Farms Temperature • Hotter • More intense outbreaks of rust and coffee bean borer at lower altitudes • “Burned” cherries at lower altitudes (1000-1300 masl) or without shade Precipitation • Less rain, but sometimes more intense rains during a shorter period; less water in local waterways • Variable rainy season from year to year • Reduced cherry size and quality (cup scores of 60-75) • Increased plant stress, reducing average lifespan by 5-6 years Farmers at low altitudes now have drip irrigation for droughts; other have abandoned their farms due to droughts Severe Weather • Frequent hail (new phenomenon) • Stronger winds • Damage to cherries (knocked off trees) • Damage to shade and coffee trees (knocking trees down) Observations from farmers in the Chirinos and San José de Lourdes Districts, San Ignacio Province, Cajamarca Region shared during focus groups with Rainforest Alliance in late 2016 East Africa Uganda Source: Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584- 014-1306-x +2C in average annual temperature 9-25% decrease in area suitable for Arabica Elevation suitable for Arabica moves from 400-2000 masl 800-2500 masl Modest increase, with shorter dry season [East Africa] Climate risk: Heat will likely cause more moderate reductions in area suitable for Arabica production. Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, et al. (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155; Bunn, C. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x [Uganda] Climate risk: Historical record and future projections show warmer conditions with mixed precipitation trends. Historical data shows a strong warming trend. Daytime temperatures rose between 1960 and 2010 at an average rate of 0.28°C per decade. Warming will continue into the second half of the century. Models project increases in the annual mean temperatures of ~2°C by the 2050s. Precipitation trends and projections are mixed and quite uncertain. Rainfall has increased in certain parts of the country and declined in others; projections suggest an increase. Overall, precipitation is likely to be increasingly erratic and intense, leading to both flooding and droughts in different zones. Source: CIAT; BFS/USAID. 2017. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Uganda. CSA Country Profiles for Africa Series. CIAT; Bureau for Food Security, United States Agency for International Development (BFS/ USAID), Washington, D.C.; the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal at http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/index.cfm Source: Laurence Jassogne, Peter Laderach, Piet Van Asten, “The Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee in Uganda: Lessons from a Case Study in the Rwenzori Mountains,” Oxfam Research Reports, April 2013; Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x [Uganda] Climate risk: Heat will likely reduce the area suitable for coffee, concentrating production along the Rwandan border. Uganda will likely lose ~25% of area suitable for Arabica coffee production by the 2050s. Areas below 1400 masl would likely lose suitability entirely. Robusta coffee may see similar losses. Rising temperatures may push many areas above even Robusta’s heat tolerance. East Africa as a region may lose between 15-30% of the area currently suitable for Robusta. Asia-Pacific Indonesia +1.7-1.8C in average annual temperature 9-28% decrease in area suitable for Arabica Elevation suitable for Arabica moves up around 300 masl Modest increase Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, et al. (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155; Bunn, C. et al. Climatic Change (2015) 129: 89. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x [Asia-Pacific] Climate risk: Heat will likely reduce the area suitable; Asian origins may suffer more than the Pacific origins. Indonesia: Projected climate impacts on coffee suitability (2050s) Appendix Coffee’s Climate Envelope: Coffee arabica thrives within a narrow climate window Climate determines where coffee grows and thrives. Coffee arabica in particular needs specific climate conditions and is highly sensitive to weather shocks and gradual climate change. Producers will see yield and/or quality decline if the climate surpasses critical parameters. Climate Parameter Optimal Range Impact if Go Outside Optimal Range Annual mean temperature ~20°C (daytime highs ~22°C and nighttime lows ~18°C) Yield/quality start with temps >25°C and intensify >30°C due to wilting/defoliation and increased pest/disease incidence; frost damages or kills plant ** Study in Tanzania found productivity losses of ~137 kg/ha for every 1°C rise in mean minimum nighttime temperature *** Annual rainfall / maximum dry period 1200+ mm / 3 months If drier, significant yield/quality losses (smaller, uneven, lighter, or less developed beans) from irregular flowering or plant wilting/defoliation Precipitation patterns Short dry season (<40mm per month) followed by rainy season Limited or irregular flowering if dry/rainy seasons not well defined Sources: "Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change”; “The Costly Effects of the Current Drought on Coffee Farmers”; A C W Craparo et al., ‘Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: Global implications,’ Agricultural & Forest Methodology 207 (2015): 1–10. Coffee’s Climate Envelope: Coffee arabica thrives within a narrow window of climate conditions. Geographic locations and change in climatic characteristics by 2050s. Source: Ovalle-Rivera O, Läderach P, Bunn C, Obersteiner M, Schroth G (2015) Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change. PLoS ONE 10(4): e0124155. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124155 Coffee’s Climate Envelope: All coffee origins will see changes in conditions critical for Arabica by the 2050s.