Climate Services 27 (2022) 100306
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect 
Climate Services 
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/cliser 
Re-prioritizing climate services for agriculture: Insights from Bangladesh 
Simon J. Mason a, Timothy J. Krupnik b,*, James W. Hansen a, Melody Braun a, 
S. Ghulam Hussain b, Md. Shah Kamal Khan c, Abdu Mannan d, Ashley Curtis a, Eunjin Han a, 
Andrew Kruczkiewicz a,e 
a Columbia University, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, USA 
b International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Dhaka, Bangladesh 
c Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Dhaka, Bangladesh 
d Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Dhaka, Bangladesh 
e Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands   
A R T I C L E  I N F O   A B S T R A C T   
Keywords Considerable progress has been made in establishing climate service capabilities over the last few decades, but 
Bangladesh the gap between the resulting services and national needs remains large. Using climate services for agriculture in 
Climate services Bangladesh as a case study example, we highlight mismatches between local needs on the one hand, and in-
Seasonal climate forecasts ternational initiatives that have focused largely on prediction on the other, and we make suggestions for 
Agriculture 
Institutions addressing such mismatches in similar settings. To achieve greater benefit at the national level, there should be a 
stronger focus on addressing important preliminaries for building services. These preliminaries include the 
identification of priorities, the definition of responsibilities and expectations, the development of climate services 
skills, and the construction of a high-quality and easily usable national climate record. Once appropriate insti-
tutional, human resources and data infrastructure are in place, the implementation of a climate monitoring and 
watch system would form a more logical basis for initial climate service implementation than attempting to 
promote sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasting, especially when and where the inherent predictability is 
limited at best. When and where forecasting at these scales is viable, efforts should focus on defining and pre-
dicting high-impact events important for decision making, rather than on simple seasonal aggregates that often 
correlate poorly with outcomes. Some such forecasts may be more skillful than the 3- to 4-month seasonal ag-
gregates that have become the internationally adopted standard. By establishing a firm foundation for climate 
services within National Meteorological Services, there is a greater chance that individual climate service 
development initiatives will be sustainable after their respective project lifetimes.   
1. Introduction growing awareness of the need for climate change adaptation (Smit 
et al., 2000). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has taken 
The purpose of a climate service is “to provide people and organi- a key role in trying to ensure that all countries can benefit from advances 
zations with timely, tailored climate-related knowledge and information in climate services, and has promoted various national, regional and 
that they can use to reduce climate-related losses and enhance benefits, global initiatives to build their capacities. 
including the protection of lives, livelihoods, and property” (Vaughan A major focus of international efforts to develop national climate 
and Dessai, 2014). Over the last three decades, there have been major service capabilities has been on forecasting, primarily at seasonal 
developments in establishing climate service capabilities globally timescales. At the regional level, for example, Regional Climate Outlook 
(Vaughan and Dessai, 2014; Allis et al., 2019). There are numerous Forums (RCOFs) were initiated in the late-1990s (Buizer et al., 2000; 
catalysts underlying this development, including scientific and techno- Ogallo et al., 2000), and have been implemented across much of the 
logical advances in observations and forecasting (Dutton, 2002), and a globe. This focus on seasonal forecasting is partly a reflection of the 
* Corresponding author at: CIMMYT-Bangladesh, House 10/B, Road 53, Gulshan-2, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. 
E-mail addresses: simon@iri.columbia.edu (S.J. Mason), t.krupnik@cgiar.org (T.J. Krupnik), jhansen@iri.columbia.edu (J.W. Hansen), mbraun@iri.columbia.edu 
(M. Braun), ghussain@agni.com (S. Ghulam Hussain), acurtis@iri.columbia.edu (A. Curtis), eunjin@iri.columbia.edu (E. Han), andrewk@iri.columbia.edu 
(A. Kruczkiewicz).  
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100306 
Received 9 August 2021; Received in revised form 9 May 2022; Accepted 7 June 2022   
Available online 24 June 2022
2405-8807/© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
S.J. Mason et al.                                                                                                                                                                                                           C  l i m   a t e   S  e r  v i c e s 27 (2022) 100306
strong roles that the World Climate Research Programme and WMO range forecasts for agricultural planning and 7-day agrometeorological 
Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) took in developing forecasts for regular agricultural operations, in addition to supporting 
early climate service capacities (Carson, 1998; Ogallo et al., 2000; five-day weather-advisories for multiple crops for all 491 sub-districts1. 
Sivakumar, 2006; Busalacchi and Asrar, 2009). In addition, since February 20172 the Department of Agricultural 
The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) was formally Extension (DAE) under the Ministry of Agriculture has been engaged in 
adopted in 2012 (Hewitt et al., 2012), and has made progress in project activities aimed at improving climate services. Under these ac-
formalizing national institutional arrangements for climate services, tivities, agro-meteorological bulletins are distributed twice a week by 
encouraged data-rescue efforts, strengthened regional support for district and once in a week at the national level. In addition, special 
climate services, and fulfilled a need for international coordination emergency bulletins are issued in the event that an extreme weather 
(Hewitt et al., 2020). These, and related initiatives, have helped to event is predicted. These efforts, however, come with considerable 
strengthen the capacity of many National Meteorological and Hydro- additional investment from partner organizations and donors. 
logical Services (NMHSs) to generate climate information that most Although not exclusively for the agricultural sector, Bangladesh does 
NMHSs were unable to produce just a few years ago (Allis et al., 2019; have a well-developed climate- and weather-services system for extreme 
Hewitt et al., 2020). However, the generation of such information is only events. For example, the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) is 
one part of functioning and effective climate services. Much of the effort known in the Disaster Risk Reduction community to be one of the prime 
needed to develop the capabilities to tailor and apply climate informa- examples of a system built and sustained at the national level, while 
tion for real-world decision-making lies well beyond the role of NMHSs being trusted in the communities (Habib et al., 2012). More recently, 
(Mahon et al., 2019). It is unclear how much progress has been made in Forecast-based Financing (FbF) has been developed to link thresholds 
areas of tailoring and realizing effective use (Brooks, 2013; Vaughan within a forecast indicating significant risk of socioeconomic impact for 
et al., 2016; Bruno Soares et al., 2018), but it is clear that demand for pre-agreed anticipatory actions to decrease potential impact with those 
climate services continues to exceed capacity to provide them. actions being funded by a pre-agreed set of protocols linked to a sus-
In this paper, we reflect on reasons why efforts to develop national tainable pot of funding (Lopez et al., 2020). FbF has been tested for cold 
climate services may make disappointing progress towards fulfilling waves, heat waves, tropical cyclones and floods in Bangladesh, on the 
national needs for such services. Using agricultural applications in weather timescale, and is in the process of being integrated into the 
Bangladesh as a case study example, we highlight mismatches between national-level disaster-management programming. As climate services 
local needs on the one hand, and international initiatives that have for crop diseases are a long-standing objective (Thomson et al., 2000), 
focused largely on prediction on the other. We propose ways in which BMD has also recently worked with national and international agricul-
climate services could be facilitated more effectively to directly link to tural research, training, and extension organizations to develop suites of 
actions and decisions in settings in other countries and contexts similar extreme-weather and crop-disease forecasting advisories for farmers3, 
to Bangladesh. though integration of sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts in these efforts 
remains nascent. 
2. Climate services in Bangladesh – A historical overview 
2.2. Climatechange services in Bangladesh 
2.1. Agrometeorological services in Bangladesh 
The Government of Bangladesh and national and international 
South Asia has one of the longest histories of agrometeorological research and development organizations have invested considerable 
services (Normand, 1953; Decker, 1994; Stigter, 2008). The India efforts in recognizing and mainstreaming climate change into policies to 
Meteorological Department (IMD) was established in 1875 after a improve adaptation planning and in building the country’s resilience to 
devastating tropical cyclone in 1864 and a series of subsequent famines climate change (Huq, 2001; Rahman and Alam, 2003; Huq and Ayers, 
resulting from monsoon failures. IMD has been producing seasonal 2008; Ayers et al., 2014). Bangladesh was the one of the first countries to 
forecasts for longer than any other country, and now provides a wide develop a National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), and the 
range of monitoring products that include maps of daily rainfall de- Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) pro-
parture, temperature, and standard precipitation indices (IMD, 2021). vides a climate change strategic framework for Bangladesh. 
After the partition of India in 1947, the Pakistan Meteorological The Bangladesh Delta Plan includes climate change considerations as 
Department (PMD) was established, and, in turn, the Bangladesh part of its comprehensive strategy for delta development over the next 
Meteorological Department (BMD) was formed after the liberation of 50–100 years (de Heer et al., 2012; Zevenbergen et al., 2018). Climate 
Bangladesh in 1971. The BMD is a government organization under the change has also been integrated in sectoral policies including national 
administrative control of the Ministry of Defense, Government of the agriculture, water and disaster management plans, in addition to 
People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Its main responsibilities are to monitor infrastructural development to improve climate resilience4. Challenges 
the weather and climate, provide routine forecasts at multiple time 
scales, and to issue warnings of extreme meteorological events. 
The capacities of national meteorological services in South Asia vary 1 See https://live4.bmd.gov.bd/p/Agromet/ and https://www.agvisely.com, 
considerably (Ramakrishna, 2013). India has perhaps the most respectively.  
advanced services: the country operates a large number of weather 2 See: https://www.bamis.gov.bd.  
stations, and has a well-developed weather and climate modeling 3 Examples include Agvisely (https://www.agvisely.com/register), a sub- 
capability (Kumar et al., 2017). In contrast, the meteorological services district level automated agro-advisory forecast for wheat, maize, rice, potato, 
of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are relatively lentil, and mungbean, interactive voice response services (https://www. 
resource-constrained, but they are currently all undergoing significant cimmyt. 
development. Similarly, the capacities of agricultural advisory services org/projects/climate-and-market-smart-mung-bean-advisories-camasma/) to 
vary throughout the region. India leads the region in the provision of alert farmers of extreme rainfall risks of crop damage, crop disease early 
agricultural advisory services, producing detailed weather forecasts, and warning systems (https://beattheblastews.net), and agricultural advisory bul-
letins at the district and national levels (https://www.bamis.gov.bd/bulletin/d 
operating services that enable farmers to consult with experts in near- istrict/).  
real time (Rathore, 2013). At the other extreme, the meteorological 4 Efforts to use climate change projections in Bangladesh exist within the line 
departments in Nepal and Bhutan struggle to maintain consistent staff- agencies of the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Water Resources, the Min-
ing for their agrometeorological divisions. In Bangladesh, the BMD does istry of Local Government, Rural Development and Co-operatives, as well as by 
operate an agrometeorological division that issues one-month long- the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, among others. 
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remain, including lack of a single overarching climate change policy, the priorities listed here are likely to be relevant for other countries and 
and the need for greater coherence between existing policies, improved other sectors. 
sectoral integration and improved coordination and knowledge sharing 
(The Asia Foundation, 2012)5. However, Bangladesh has taken a lead- 3.1. Historical climate record 
ership position on the international adaptation community, leading 
many development organizations to turn towards the country to learn A high-quality national climate record is fundamental to developing 
from its experience on adaptation. climate services (Bojinski et al., 2014; Ceccato et al., 2014). One 
Despite the prevalence of both climate change specific policies and distinction between a weather and a climate service is that a climate 
scientific literature, climate change information has arguably been service interprets current or expected conditions in the context of the 
inconsistently integrated into practical adaptation to climate impacts past, whereas weather services focus on the characteristics of specific 
(Ahmed, 2019; Uddin et al., 2021). Bangladesh has implemented only a phenomena. Without high-quality data, such interpretation is restricted. 
small fraction of the priority projects outlined in the NAPA6, partly Considering the agricultural sector, data are essential for crop risk- and 
because of inadequate funding and limited integration with national suitability-mapping, for detection and diagnosis of emerging or ongoing 
policy and institutional frameworks (Ayers, 2011; Dodman and Mitlin, pest and disease outbreaks, for advisories related to thermal or drought 
2011; Pervin and Moin, 2014). A major focus of adaptation projects in stresses, for initializing crop- and farming-system models, and for 
Bangladesh are large-scale infrastructure projects to address impacts of contextualizing, interpreting and verifying forecasts at scales relevant to 
floods, salinity intrusion, coastal storm surges, and anticipated sea-level farm decision-making. In countries with poor national climate data-
rise, leaving many sectors and regions of the country still vulnerable bases, starting with a focus on developing accurate climatological data 
(Zamudio and Parry, 2016). that closely match on-the-ground experience, is likely to be a more 
Although the impacts of weather and climate variability on effective means of developing credibility than is trying to develop 
Bangladesh have been deeply considered (Yu et al., 2010; Faroque et al., forecasts that cannot be adequately contextualized or validated from an 
2013; Amin et al., 2015; Goosen et al., 2018), most notably in disaster- agricultural perspective. 
risk management (Bangladesh Government, 2017; Baten et al., 2018), Internationally-driven improvements in the collection and use of 
the bulk of the country’s national planning documents focus on adapting climate observations have led to the generation of datasets that have 
to long-term climate change. There is a prevalent focus on mid- to end- become essential to the global climate and agricultural research com-
of-the-century climate projections, with less integration of climate at munity. Examples of such data include ocean temperature profiles from 
other timescales, despite the importance of past, present, short- and the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array (Hayes et al., 1991; McPhaden 
medium-term climate impacts and climate variability. Such a hyperopic et al., 1998), various satellite-based observations (Reynolds et al., 2002; 
perspective is often characteristic of countries where the NMHS has had Wentz and Schabel, 2000; Knapp et al., 2011; Hollmann et al., 2013), 
an insufficient role in helping to shape the country’s climate change and a suite of data products based on historical climate model reanalyses 
policies (Furlow et al., 2018). Conversely, research on climate change (Gibson et al., 1997; Kalnay et al., 1996; Kistler et al., 2001). However, 
impacts for agriculture in Bangladesh is common (Rahman et al., 2018), despite support for national data-rescue efforts that have fed into im-
as are development initiatives focused on agricultural adaptation, provements in these global climate datasets (Page et al., 2004; Brunet 
though linkages between BMD and the agricultural research community and Jones, 2011; Kaspar et al., 2015), there have been fewer efforts to 
have only recently developed and remain weak. This weakness indicates develop and archive national climate records that are designed for 
an area of significant need to address gaps between climate data gen- building publicly accessible, high-quality climate products and services. 
eration and evidence-based real-world adaptation efforts. One noteworthy example of an international initiative to develop 
national climate records is the work of the Expert Team on Climate 
3. National climate service capacity development priorities in Change Detection Indices (ETCCDI; Peterson et al., 1998; Peterson and 
Bangladesh Manton, 2008). Well over 100 countries, including Bangladesh, have 
participated in ETCCDI workshops where the objective is to develop 
Much of the initiative to develop climate service capacity, such as national datasets that can be used to measure observed changes in 
climate observations and forecasting, have been driven by international climate. However, with the limited resources available, the indices are 
efforts. Due to these efforts, climate services have been shaped to-date in not routinely updated by all countries, and often only a highly restricted 
ways that do not always match well with priorities at the national level, set of data is developed. In the case of Bangladesh, data for only four 
and by following international standards, they may involve opportunity stations were prepared, although the BMD has more than 50 years of 
costs in developing customized national services. In contrast, initiatives digitized meteorological data collected from 23 stations, more than 100 
to develop climate service capacity at national scale, including in years from 14 stations, and 11 stations with fewer than 50 years of data. 
Bangladesh, are typically more sensitive to national priorities, as, for The ETCCDI initiative has focused on developing climate datasets 
example, through notable funding by the United States Agency for In- suitable for a specific purpose – climate change detection – and other 
ternational Development (USAID) and the World Bank (Krupnik et al., meteorological station data may be inadequate for such purposes. 
2019). Recognizing that there may be other considerations and prior- However, there are multiple other needs for climate data that must be 
ities, we utilize insights generated from focus group discussions held in addressed. Many NMHSs however still lack comprehensive, quality- 
2017–2018 with farmers and the DAE and BMD in Bangladesh (Krupnik controlled national climate datasets and tools that together are essen-
et al., 2019) to frame and discuss some of the national climate service tial for building an effective climate service (Jones et al., 2009). For 
priorities for the agricultural communities in Bangladesh. Because of the example, despite BMD’s relative wealth of digitized climate data, 
scope of the potential demand for climate services, a balance is needed because of insufficient support for database-management and of inade-
between meeting context-specific needs and implementing general ser- quate inter-operability (Giuliani et al., 2017), BMD has had to invest 
vices in a cost-effective manner (Hansen et al., 2019). At least some of considerable effort in pre-processing data for use within a multitude of 
software applications internally, ancd to service external data requests. 
Developing a high-quality database per se is insufficient for an 
5 https://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/SituationAnalysisofCCinitiati effective climate service: the data need to be made available. Data access 
ves.pdf.  is both protected and guaranteed by WMO Resolutions (Moura, 2006), 
6 https://www.adaptation-undp.org/sites/default/files/downloads/bangla but in many countries accessing data remains a challenge (Mason et al., 
desh_napa.pdf.https://unfccc.int/topics/resilience/workstreams/national-ada 2019). Making raw climate data freely and easily available is not 
ptation-programmes-of-action/ldc-napa-projects. necessarily beneficial to all. While some applications do require access 
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to data, what would be beneficial for others is access to interactive in- and pest- and disease-control measures. Information on the extent to 
formation products so that users can perform at least some level of which these bulletins have influenced farmers’ decision-making pro-
tailoring themselves. Access to such products could help to avoid cesses in practice has, however, not been systematically collected or 
imposing an unwieldy demand on NMHSs, the meeting of which would made publically available. This lack of information may be because 
otherwise require a re-prioritization of current tasks (Dinku et al., 2011, NMHSs tend to consider themselves as producers of information, with 
2018; Overpeck et al., 2011; Hewitt et al., 2017). less emphasis on translating or assuring that this information is put to 
This basic need for high-quality national climate databases and practical use. While this gap is a clear constraint for improvement of the 
interactive tools is beginning to receive greater attention through ini- utility of climate information and its use for services, it also presents an 
tiatives such as Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS; Dinku important area of research that could help inform improvements in 
et al., 2014, 2018; Mason et al., 2019; Siebert et al., 2019). The ENACTS climate-watch systems. 
initiative aims to develop high-resolution, quality-controlled, gridded Climate watches and warnings are most effective when they can be 
historical datasets, and to produce from these datasets derived climate translated into impacts. Communicating the range of impacts is an in-
information products that can be disseminated through a web-based tegral element of translation of climate services. For example, an 
platform. Initially implemented in Africa (Dinku, 2019), ENACTS is improved understanding of thresholds for amounts of precipitation, hail 
being introduced in other parts of the world, including Bangladesh. size, wind magnitude, as well as complex multi-hazard disaster thresh-
olds (such as the combination of intense rainfall and strong winds) that 
3.2. Climate monitoring systems indicate an increased risk of crop failure and/or damage, is clearly 
desirable (Yu et al., 2010). If the climate-watch communication is pre-
The development of a climate monitoring infrastructure has recently sented from a user-centric perspective, rather than from the perspective 
become a high priority of the GFCS. While there are many urgent needs of NMHSs alone, there is an increased likelihood of moving from 
that can benefit from forecasting information, it makes most sense to availability of climate information towards building trust and subse-
build climate services initially on a strong historical and real-time quent use of that information in agricultural and other decision making 
monitoring system, rather than starting with forecasting capability in- (Crane et al., 2010; Palttala et al., 2012; Bostrom et al., 2016; Jacobs and 
and-of itself. High-quality historical data and real-time monitoring Street, 2020; Kruczkiewicz et al., 2021). 
provide the foundation for using seasonal forecasts effectively. Being 
able to comment on what is happening in real-time may help establish 3.3. Tailored forecasts 
credibility, despite the uncertainty of forecasts. 
A climate monitoring system can contribute to impact-based fore- The emphasis on prediction within many international efforts to 
casting, even where climate forecasts might not be skillful (Thomson develop national climate service capabilities reflects the fact that the 
et al., 2005; Mason and Thomson, 2019). For example, observed rainfall physical climate research community understandably has a strong 
is one of the major forcing variables for process-based crop models or innovative and theoretical, rather than applied, motivation. As a result, 
soil–water-balance models, which are the main components of pre- and international research-programme priorities have not necessarily 
in-season yield-forecasting systems. A significant proportion of the total matched climate service priorities at national level. They may also 
uncertainty in crop yields comes from unknown weather for the coming neglect more mundane, but fundamental, elements of climate services 
growing season, but that uncertainty can be reduced by integrating such as developing a national climate record and implementing a 
monitored weather observations as the season progresses (Hansen et al., climate monitoring service including watches and warnings – which can 
2006). In addition, monitored rainfall data can be used to estimate be increasingly crowdsourced (Zhu et al., 2019) – as discussed above. In 
initial soil-moisture conditions for process-based crop models. There- many countries, therefore, progress made to-date in developing NMHS 
fore, several yield-forecasting systems initialize crop models with climate service capacity has been disproportionately focused on sea-
observed weather data, and replace seasonal climate predictors, or sonal climate forecasting, while historical analyses and monitoring 
weather data conditioned on climate forecasts, with observed weather services that can inform decision-making remain less-developed, as do 
data as the growing season progresses (Cantelaube and Terres, 2005; shorter-term forecasts of some high-impact weather and climate events. 
Lawless and Semenov, 2005; Hansen et al., 2006; Ferrise et al., 2015; Bangladesh is somewhat exceptional in this respect: climate services 
Asfaw et al., 2018; Shelia et al., 2019). Furthermore, climate shocks and related to extreme events, particularly cyclones, are relatively well- 
disasters (in this case, extreme rainfall and/or strong winds that may developed (see Section 2.1). 
damage crops) are not necessarily well parameterized in many crop There are many reasons why an initial focus on seasonal forecasting 
models, leaving a gap in representation of the risk of impact at the tails is potentially problematic. Providing seasonal forecasts in the absence of 
of the probability distribution of potential impact-based outcomes (Ming more fundamental climate information is like providing a blue-tooth 
et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2018). keyboard to someone with no computer. In fact, there is the potential 
Climate watch systems are now being promoted internationally (Del to do more harm than good (Suarez and Patt, 2004) if, for example, a 
Corral et al., 2012; Pulwarty and Sivakumar, 2014; Mason et al., 2019). NMHS is trying to build a positive reputation through forecasts that may 
A climate watch system provides advisories and alerts about important be inherently low-skill, whilst failing to provide more fundamental in-
climate anomalies and extremes that are developing and/or expected to formation that may be more accurate and useful (Crane et al., 2010). 
occur (Muñoz et al., 2010). Although Bangladesh has not yet imple- Seasonal forecast skill is relatively low or even zero for much of the 
mented a formal climate-watch system, agrometeorological bulletins world and for much of the year (Weisheimer and Palmer, 2014; Mason, 
have been disseminated since 2009 (section 2.1). These bulletins are 2019), and so the usefulness of seasonal forecasts is inherently 
issued weekly, and contain reports on agrometeorological observations restricted. Even if there is predictability, expectations of forecast accu-
from 12 stations (section 3.1) and 7-day deterministic forecasts of racy – especially among less-educated users – may be unrealistic, and 
rainfall and temperature that are based on interpretation of a variety of inappropriate levels of confidence in forecasts can erode trust, even if 
global model outputs. There is activity to upgrade this system, and BMD the forecasts are properly calibrated (Hartmann et al., 2002; Otto et al., 
is experimentally operating a numerical weather prediction model using 2016). Evidence indicates that the seasonal predictability of climate 
model inputs from the National Center for Environmental Prediction in over Bangladesh is relatively low (Kelley et al., 2020; cf. Rahman et al., 
the USA. The bulletins are disseminated by e-mail, website, fax and 2013) compared with that in many other areas of the tropics (Fig. 1). 
postal service to different users, mainly within government, and are used This weak predictability is, in part, because of a complex relationship 
to develop advisories for farmers on decisions such as selection of pro- with the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (de la Poterie et al., 2018; 
duction technology, and timing of application of fertilizers, irrigation, Chowdhury, 2003; Acharya et al., 2021), and weak relationships to sea- 
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Fig. 1. Estimates of the skill of IRI’s seasonal (three-month) average temperature (top) and accumulated rainfall (bottom) forecasts for 1997–2017. Skill is estimated 
using a measure of forecast value. For further details see Mason (2019). 
surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. Given the complex nature of addition, tercile boundaries do not necessarily align with thresholds that 
teleconnections in the Bangladesh region, multi-model prediction sys- are relevant to decision making, and the terciles often fail to distinguish 
tems may provide higher skill forecasts than can more traditional more extreme, high-impact, seasons from ones that are marginally 
empirically-based models (Acharya et al., 2021). below- and above-normal (Broad and Agrawala, 2000; Hansen et al., 
Regardless of whether seasonal forecast skill for Bangladesh could be 2019). Rather than focusing too much effort on producing overly generic 
improved, realizing benefit from conventional seasonal forecasts, pre- forecasts, forecasts could likely be more useful if they were tailored 
sented as the probability that upcoming rainfall will fall in the “below- (Goddard et al., 2010), co-produced (Crane et al., 2010) and driven by a 
normal,” “normal” or “above-normal” tercile categories, is far from connection to a suite of decisions and actions (Buizer et al., 2016). 
straightforward (Hammer, 2000; Ogallo et al., 2000; Vogel, 2000; The case of rice cultivation in Bangladesh illustrates the limitations 
Ingram et al., 2002; Hansen et al., 2006; Klopper et al., 2006; Vogel and to the value of standard seasonal forecasts. The productivity of rice is 
O’Brien, 2006; Ash et al., 2007; Meza et al., 2008). Focus-group data susceptible to both low- and high-temperature stress depending on 
from Bangladesh indicate that such forecasts can also be challenging for cultivar and physiological growth stage (Sánchez et al., 2014; Shelley 
users to interpret (Krupnik et al., 2019). There are many reasons why the et al., 2016; Arshad et al., 2017). Rice is primarily rainfed during the 
potential benefits of seasonal forecasting may be unrealized, but one monsoon ‘aman’ season, which contributes approximately 40% of total 
important reason is that the standard seasonal forecast format is hard to rice production in Bangladesh. The rice crop can also be vulnerable to 
understand and use (Hartmann et al., 2002; Patt et al., 2007). This extreme-weather-related risks including drought and floods that can 
standard forecast format, which follows conventions adopted in the significantly curtail productivity (Mahmood et al., 2003, 2004; Hussain, 
RCOFs (Mason et al., 1999; Buizer et al., 2000; Ogallo et al., 2008), 2017). However, from the 1990s forward, dry ‘boro’ season rice has 
makes sense at global and regional scales to provide a general overview. become the largest contributor to total rice production in Bangladesh, 
However, for local decision-making, the format is sub-optimal: seasonal rendering it the world’s fourth largest rice-producing country (Shelley 
total rainfall is not necessarily the most useful or predictable parameter; et al., 2016; FAOSTAT, 2021). In both seasons, although rice cultivation 
and the tercile format decouples forecast probability shifts from the is highly dependent on water availability during the respective growing 
underlying climatology, making the forecast difficult to understand. In season, yields are sensitive to rainfall, water deficit (drought) and 
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temperature characteristics (e.g., timing relative to critical growth outlooks for agricultural decision-making may be less useful for farmers 
stages, frequency of exceeding thresholds) rather than to seasonally in comparison to the pragmatic decisions made at the weather forecast 
aggregated conditions, which are the focus of most seasonal forecasts (Fig. 2). There are some attempts within the RCOFs to predict aspects of 
(Koide et al., 2013; Nahar et al., 2009; Wassmann et al., 2009; Kabir weather-within-the-season, such as wet- and dry-spells, and heavy 
et al., 2014; Mahmood et al., 2004; Shelley et al., 2016). rainfall frequencies (Gerlak et al., 2018). However, this practice has yet 
Despite the importance of temperatures to agriculture (and other to become widespread, and the connection between extreme rainfall and 
sectors), seasonal temperature forecasts are still not routinely imple- flooding requires improved understanding and documentation (Cough-
mented in all RCOFs, or in many countries. The implementation of lan de Perez et al., 2017; Alfieri et al., 2018). 
temperature forecasts would also be of potential benefit well beyond the There also have been calls to provide information about rainfall 
agricultural sector (Connor et al., 2008). For example, there is an onset since the first RCOF review (WMO, 2000), and there may be some 
increased attention from the humanitarian community to address the potential to provide skillful forecasts in some parts of the world (Moron 
‘silent killer’ (Loughnan, 2014) of heat waves and cold waves (Singh et al., 2009). However, onset definitions (at least ones that have any 
et al., 2019). In addition, although there has been considerably more potential to be predicted more than a few days in advance) are in terms 
effort to produce seasonal forecasts of rainfall rather than of tempera- of large-scale dynamics (Goswami and Gouda, 2010; Montes et al., 
ture, the heavy focus on predicting only the seasonal total rainfall is 2019) that may not always necessarily translate into on-the-ground local 
highly limiting, as discussed above. Predicting all the rainfall and tem- experience. 
perature parameters that affect yields is an unrealistic goal, but 
providing some shorter-term forecasts about high-impact weather 
events, together with information about the weather-within-the-season, 3.4. Improved coordination and engagement 
are options that may be both more useful and more predictable than are 
conventional seasonal predictands (Hansen et al., 2006; Kanda, 2012). Generating timely, credible, and actionable information is only one 
For example, rainfall frequencies are often easier to predict than rainfall part of developing effective climate services (Crane et al., 2010). Climate 
total over a season (Robertson et al., 2009), including over Bangladesh services need to be developed with engagement of all relevant parties 
(Kelley et al., 2020), and they may have stronger relationships with (Dilling, 2007; McNie, 2007; Sarewitz and Pielke, 2007), otherwise the 
impacts. However, the utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal and seasonal information that is developed will remain largely unused. More specif-
ically, sufficient resources should be allocated for structured 
Fig. 2. Examples of agricultural decision making types among agricultural stakeholders as they pertain to annual crop production in Bangladesh at multiple climate 
forecasting scales. Data generated from focus group discussions held in 2017–2018 with the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Department of Agri-
cultural Extension in Bangladesh (Krupnik et al., 2018). Figure adapted from White et al. (2017). 
6
S.J. Mason et al.                                                                                                                                                                                                           C  l i m   a t e   S  e r  v i c e s 27 (2022) 100306
interactions between stakeholders – ideally brokered by a climate sci- whether the potential users of these services have the capacity to un-
ence translator, whose role is to bridge gaps between the NMHS and end- derstand and articulate demand for information that might not yet be 
users (Agrawala et al., 2001; Kruczkiewicz et al., 2021). available (Carr et al., 2019; Hansen et al., 2019). In summary, the 
Despite the many climate change plans and policies now in place in NFCS’s importance is rooted in coordination. Coordination allows not 
Bangladesh, insufficient coordination between the many agencies, do- only for the necessary multi-disciplinary entities involved in climate 
nors, and projects currently working, risks continued compartmentali- services to seek guidance for conducting their discipline-specific activ-
zation, limiting effectiveness (Ahmed, 2019). Inter-ministerial ities, but also, and perhaps more importantly so, for the coordination, 
coordination remains a challenge because of the fragmentation of tasks incentivization and mobilization of discussions between those entities. 
and agencies, insufficient human resources, technical knowledge, and 
the competition for funding (Uddin et al., 2021). Beyond government, 4. Conclusions and recommendations 
there is limited coordination between agencies and institutions, partly 
due to the multiplicity of existing initiatives originating from different International efforts to support the development of national climate 
and uncoordinated donor funding. services have made considerable progress in countries that formally had 
Climate services face similar coordination challenges. At the gov- only very limited capacities. However, in many cases such initiatives 
ernment level, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change leave only a limited capability to fulfill national needs for such services. 
serves as focal point on climate change. The BMD under the Ministry of Among the many reasons for this limited impact, experience in 
Defense, is the mandated organization to provide meteorological ser- Bangladesh highlights mismatches between the focus of many initiatives 
vices and to circulate climate and weather information. The Bangladesh to promote climate services development on the one hand, and local 
Water Development Board (BWDB), under the Ministry of Water Re- needs and practical application for such services on the other. 
sources (MoWR), is responsible for the dissemination of hydrological In many cases, initiatives have focused on creating products while 
information and flood forecasting and warning, through its Hydrology neglecting the development of essential elements of an enabling envi-
Division and Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC). All agri- ronment to assure the continued process of climate services generation 
cultural activities conversely fall under the Ministry of Agriculture and and deployment. We argue that such efforts could achieve improved 
Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock (MoFL), respectively. The Ministry of benefits at the national level by focusing on important preliminaries for 
Disaster Management and Relief has the role of coordinating disaster building climate services. These include identifying national priorities 
management efforts and disseminating information provided by BMD that climate services can help achieve, defining responsibilities and 
and BWDB to District-level Disaster Management Committees, media expectations of the various stakeholders involved, and establishing 
and local communities. Although BMD and BWDB are the two mandated effective coordination mechanisms. These preliminaries can be facili-
organizations for meteorological and hydrological services in the tated through the establishment of a National Framework for Climate 
country, it is not uncommon for other ministerial line-agencies to install Service, or similar mechanisms suited to a particular national context. 
their own weather observation equipment. Furthermore, there is no In the context of improving the provision of national climate infor-
inter-ministerial coordinating committee to link their efforts across mation products, we argue that the historical focus on seasonal climate 
Ministries. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), under the forecasting and downscaling of climate change projections has been 
Ministry of Agriculture, has a general mandate to provide information premature and unbalanced. We propose that international efforts to 
and advisories to the country’s farmers, but its role in delivering more build the capacity of NMHSs to provide climate services should give 
advanced climate services (beyond agrometeorology bulletins) has only greater attention to the following areas:  
recently begun to develop. 
A more comprehensive solution to the coordination and engagement • Building a high-quality and easily usable national climate record, as 
challenge in Bangladesh requires changes to policy and institutional part of systematic efforts to implement a climate monitoring and 
arrangements. The development of a National Framework for Climate watch system. 
Services (NFCS) offers a promising mechanism for achieving this goal. • Development of high-quality historical and real-time climate data-
Under the auspices of the Global Framework for Climate Services bases, as a foundation for products and services (Dinku et al., 2011; 
(GFCS), WMO offers technical support to national governments wishing Overpeck et al., 2011).  
to develop their NFCS (Golding et al., 2017) to “coordinate, facilitate • Capacity building of professionals and communities to assess, 
and strengthen collaboration among national institutions to improve the monitor, manage, and advise on climate and weather-based risks in 
co-production, tailoring, delivery and use” of climate services (WMO, agriculture and associated sectors, and thus build a stronger atmo-
2018). sphere of responsive (Crane et al., 2010).  
It is imperative to build climate services around mutually agreed • Improved monitoring and diagnostics products, including timely 
upon, appropriate, and pre-identified priorities and roles, re- monitoring products that support skillful forecasts of climate im-
sponsibilities and expectations – perhaps through interdisciplinary pacts, and diagnostics products that build credibility by demon-
working groups and other types of NFCS discussions – with a specific strating an understanding of what is happening now.  
focus on membership within, and content and frequency of those in- • Improved characterization of seasonal weather statistics beyond 
teractions (Vaughan and Dessai, 2014; Kruczkiewicz et al., 2018). The averages, recognizing that seasonal averages are often poorly 
NFCS development process incorporates extensive consultations with correlated with impacts (such as crop yields and flooding), while 
stakeholders in key climate sensitive sectors to identify priorities and other statistics (e.g., rainfall frequencies, heavy-rainfall frequencies, 
define responsibilities. If the NMHS does take a facilitating role, a key heat-wave occurrences, frost counts) may be more useful and more 
challenge is to ensure that stakeholders on the demand side are fully predictable (Hansen et al., 2006).  
engaged, and co-own the resulting climate services policy and gover- • Improved saliency of information, e.g., by removing unnecessary 
nance framework (Crane et al., 2010). In setting priorities and estab- jargon and including more user-specific information, and working to 
lishing services, there is a set of ethical questions that cannot be ignored assure that technical professionals are trained to be able to 
or postponed without adopting what may well be unacceptable default communicate to multiple stakeholder audiences (Crane et al., 2010).  
answers (Pfaff et al., 1999; Brasseur and Gallardo, 2016; Webber and • Greater focus on extended-range weather and sub-seasonal forecast 
Donner, 2017; Gerlak and Greene, 2019). For example, although there is products for impactful weather, rather than just seasonal (or longer- 
a well-recognized need to ensure that climate services are demand- range) forecasts (Luseno et al., 2003).  
driven (McNie, 2012; Lourenço et al., 2015), this recognition must • A better-defined communication process of the constraints for using 
deal with practical questions of whose demand is important, and climate information for specific sectors, applications and decisions. 
7
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