PAGE 1 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Ms. Maria Sigopia, Joseph Makandab, Gracsious Mavizab, Joram TarusariraC, Klaudia Amutenyaa, Sylvia Thompsona, Baptista Joaoa, Panduleni Hamukwayaa a Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adoptive Land Management (SASSCAL) b Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT cUniversity of Groningen There is a clear need for further policy development on climate, peace, and security in Namibia. The country’s existing policies, such as the National Adaptation Plans and National Climate Change Policy, provide a foundation for the development of a comprehensive climate, peace, and security framework. The Government of Namibia, its regional and international partners, and the United Nations (UN) should cooperate on developing comprehensive analytic tools for climate-related peace and security risks. To this end, a Common Vision for Climate, Peace, and Security in Namibia is essential to identify entry points for strengthening existing efforts and collaboration between stakeholders within the country in alignment with current instruments, particularly national adaptation plans or other adaptation strategies. The Government of Namibia and its regional and international partners should work closely with diverse local civil society actors, including marginalized and excluded groups, women, and girls, as well as ethnic, religious, and tribal minorities in addressing climate-related security risks. This will prevent potential conflicts between climate change and development strategies, while harnessing traditional, local, and cultural resources to address climate-related security risks. In the absence of Climate Change Act in Namibia, the current policy promotes the enhancement of synergies amongst sectors and stakeholders for effective and efficient mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change. Climate Change initiatives are therefore implemented through other legal frameworks. Hence, there is a need to develop and adopt a Climate Change Act for Namibia. Insights on Climate Peace, Social Cohesion and Mobility in Namibia POLICY BRIEF MAIN MESSAGES Biodiversity Conservation Climate Change Food Security Sustainable Forests and Woodlands Water Security Photo Credit: UNHCR/Hélène Caux http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 2 Namibia is not spared. Its reliance on rain-fed agriculture and livestock heightens its vulnerability to climate-related shocks, which in turn exacerbates social tensions and instability, including gender-based violence. As access to climate-sensitive resources dwindles, risks such as food insecurity rises, leading to increasingly unstable and vulnerable communities. Reports indicate growing intra- and inter-community conflicts over scarce food and water resources, further undermining social stability and peace. Addressing climate, peace, and security challenges will not only safeguard Namibia’s future but also contribute to regional stability and global climate resilience. In this context, this policy brief outlines essential strategies and recommendations on climate, peace, and security for Namibia, laying the groundwork for effective policies and interventions, to promote social cohesion and sustainable peace. Climate change is having alarming effects on societies and ecosystems. There is also growing evidence of its impacts transforming and redefining the global peace and security landscape across local, national, and international levels. These impacts are triggering competition over natural resources, compromising livelihoods, and causing displacement, thereby increasing the risk of social tensions and instability. The growing recognition of this link has been reflected in the discussions of UN Security Council, by adopting over 70 related resolutions and presidential statements since 2007. SUMMARY 1. INTRODUCTION Photo Credit: TonW from Pixabay PAGE 3 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Namibia has been proactive in addressing the challenges of climate change by ratifying global protocols and formulating national policies and initiatives upon which to build the climate, peace, and security agenda. Some key points include: The Paris Agreement on Climate Change: In 2016, Namibia signed the Paris Agreement, committing to tackle climate change challenges such as water, food, and energy insecurity while seizing opportunities for sustainable national development. Namibia also pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 89% by 2030, in line with its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) submitted to the UNFCCC in 2015. The Paris Agreement on Climate Change aims to keep global warming to ‘well below 2 °C, preferably below 1.5 °C’. At above 1.5 °C of global warming, the climate will be more dangerous in terms of extreme weather events. National Climate Change Policy: Namibia has developed a National Climate Change Policy from 2013 to 2020 aimed at guiding climate action across various sectors. Namibia has placed more focus on mitigation and adaptation, currently implemented four key critical themes: food security and sustainable biological resources, sustainable water resources base, human health and wellbeing, and infrastructure development. The policy lays the groundwork for advancing the climate, peace, and security agenda. It addresses the implications of climate change conflicts by enhancing transboundary cooperation on water resources and establishing agreed-upon procedures for resolving disputes over water use and management. Additionally, it highlights the need for strategies to mitigate potential conflicts between climate change and development initiatives. Environmental Management Act of 2007: This legislation provides a framework for the sustainable management of natural resources, including those impacted by climate change. It promotes conservation, sustainable development, and environmental protection. The Act serves as a foundational element for the climate, peace, and security framework through its principles, which include sustainable use of renewable resources for the benefit of present and future generations, community involvement in natural resource management and equitable sharing of the resulting benefits, consideration of the interests, needs, and values of all stakeholders, and the principle that those who cause environmental damage must bear the costs of rehabilitation, among others. Namibia’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Namibia has submitted its NDCs under the Paris Agreement, outlining its commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing resilience to climate impacts. The NDC aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 91% by 2030. REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Photo Credit: CGIAR Focus Climate Security http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 4 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Namibia’s diverse climate zones range from the arid Namib Desert along the coast, semi-desert Kalahari in the east, savannah in central and northern regions, steppe as a transition zone, to the subtropical in the northeast of the country. These climate zones are highly variable in terms of temperature and precipitation. Temperature The climate of Namibia is forecasted to become hotter and drier in the future. By 2050, the average annual temperature is expected to increase by 1.5 to 2.5°C in the south and 2.5 to 3.0°C in the north compared to the 1961-1990 average temperature (Cubasch et al., 2001) (Brown, 2009; Cubasch et al., 2001; Dirkx et al., 2008; Teofilus et al., 2015). In addition, recent data shows that the average annual temperature change is increasing much faster than anticipated (Figure 1). Many countries in southern Africa already face problems of water scarcity and climate change challenges. Moreover, the expected impacts of climate change, including more frequent and prolonged droughts, will not only threaten water security in Namibia but also social cohesion, peace, and stability. Figure 1: Projected change in temperature 2080 – 2099 relative to 1981 – 2000 (Source: SASSCAL TIPPECC PROJECT) CLIMATE TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS Current Future more likely (median) Future 10th percentile (best case) Future 90th percentile (worst case) http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 5 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Namibia is a water-stressed country, with extreme climate and rainfall fluctuations (Dirkx et al., 2008). Historically, rainfall in Namibia is spatially and temporally extremely variable and erratic (Thompson, 2021). Mean annual rainfall is only 278 mm, with a variation from 650 mm in the northeast to less than 50 mm in the southwest and along the coastal areas (Figure 2) (Jonas, 2018). In the Namib Desert and around the coastal areas, rainfall is extremely scarce. Rainfall peaks in January, February, and March, where mean monthly rainfall averages approximately 62 mm, 66 mm, and 55 mm, respectively. While rainfall trends in Namibia are highly variable, GERICS analysis indicates total precipitation rates are likely to reduce by as much as 19% by the 2080s (Dirkx et al., 2008). The largest decrease in projected rainfall is for the typically dry season, April to October, with likely reductions from 5% to as much as 65% (Cubasch et al., 2001). Water stress has already sparked water conflicts in Namibia, engendering the need to ground the climate, peace, and security agenda to mitigate potential conflicts from climate change impacts and develop conflict resolution strategies to reduce potential conflicts between climate change and development strategies. Figure 2: Average Annual Rainfall. Source: SASSCAL 2024 Heat waves Drastic increases in heat-wave days (shown as the number of events per year per location) occur in association with an increase in the number of high fire-danger days. The projected increase in heat-wave days co- occurs with projections of a generally drier climate. Options for adaptation are limited. Heatwaves can trigger drought conditions, impact food systems and pose serious health risks, particularly for children, pregnant women and the elderly people (Rahman et al., 2024). The resultant scarcity of and increased demand for water during such events may necessitate water rationing or restrictions on withdrawals from wells, springs, or waterways. The manner in which these water management measures are enforced can either lead to community conflicts, tensions, and instability or foster cooperation and collective efforts. Figure 3 below shows the historical occurrence of dry years in Namibia. Precipitation http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 6 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Figure 3: Historical occurrence of dry years (moderately, severely, and extremely dry) according to the standardised Precipitation Index. (Source: SASSCAL 2024) SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS Namibia presents a fascinating case study of socio- ecological dynamics due to its unique geography, climate, and social structures. Here are some key aspects: Social Dynamics: There are ongoing challenges related to social inequality, land rights, and rural- urban migration. The government and various organizations work on addressing these issues through policies and community programs. Climate Change: Namibia’s reliance on climate- sensitive natural resources and rainfed agriculture makes it vulnerable to the increasing challenges due to climate change. These challenges include more frequent and prolonged droughts and shifts in ecological patterns, reduced rainfall levels, and water availability. Economic Activities: Namibia’s economy is dominated by mining (particularly uranium and diamonds) and tourism. Agriculture, however, is mostly characterized by small-scale rainfed or irrigated farms. The reliance on mining and tourism can put pressure on natural resources, while agriculture often faces challenges due to water scarcity in the country. Indigenous Communities: Various indigenous groups, such as the OvaHimba and San, have traditional knowledge and practices deeply connected to their environment. These practices often involve sustainable resource management, adaptation to climatic extremes, and conflict resolution mechanisms. Water Security: Namibia has no perennial rivers within its borders (Dirkx et al., 2008). And 92 % of the country is very arid, arid, or semi-arid. This makes the water availability situation more dire, especially in the driest parts of the country. In addition to the ephemeral rivers and finite groundwater resources as the main water sources, providing 22% and 50% of Namibia’s freshwater respectively, the only other source is perennial rivers, which are at Namibia’s borders with the neighbouring countries; and thus, Namibians cannot use these rivers as a source for large water extractions without the consent of the neighbours. http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 7 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Marginalized communities: Marginalised communities are “people or populations that experience discrimination and social, political and economic exclusion because of unequal power relationships across economic, political, social and cultural dimensions”. By that definition, the Ovahimba of Kunene and Cunene/Iona are not marginalized. However, “marginal” might indeed be close to the truth. http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 8 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org The foregoing sections have revealed that Namibia is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the Southern African region due to its exposure to climate variability and extreme weather events. Increasing average temperatures and rainfall variability, as well as extreme weather events, including droughts and water scarcity in the country, pose risks and threats to local communities, especially the vulnerable and marginalised populations. Namibia’s economy relies heavily on mining and tourism, and mining activities in the country lead to water contamination and land degradation. This negatively impacts food, land and water systems - compromising agricultural productivity, human security, and livestock health, but moreover threatens tourism. Prolonged droughts force small-scale farmers to abandon their agricultural land and migrate to cities and urban centres to seek alternative livelihood options. In cities, populations are congested, and migration increases competition for resources such as food, water, and basic amenities to sustain livelihoods. While Namibia is known as one of the peaceful and stable countries in Southern Africa, competition for scarce resources may lead to social tensions and, in some cases, social instability or inter-communal conflict. This reveals how the consequences of climate change, fragility, and displacement can potentially undermine local peace, human security, and social cohesion in Namibia. Regional and local environmental and ecological degradation, as well as climate change, are likely to fuel competition for resources, economic distress, and social discontent in Namibia. It’s evident that Climate hazards such as extreme weather, higher temperatures, droughts, floods, wildfire and soil degradation, are intensifying, causing the possibility of increased social cohesion and peace and security risks. In this context, stakeholders need to understand how the impacts of and responses to climate change may alter the socioeconomic and geo-political systems, and the effect of social cohesion and peace and security outcomes in Namibia. This is necessary to create possible pathways towards better alignment of humanitarian, development, and peace objectives, greater food security and climate resilience, and a more inclusive and socially equitable society in Namibia. CLIMATE- RELATED PEACE AND SECURITY RISKS IN NAMIBIA http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 9 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org PATHWAYS TO CLIMATE CHANGE, PEACE, SECURITY, AND MIGRATION- RELATED RISKS While the pathways may unfold differently across different contexts and social scales, each pathway contains a set of unique but overlapping drivers that can help policy-makers to understand the climate, peace and security nexus in Namibia. Droughts and Water Scarcity: Namibia is one of the driest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and it is highly vulnerable to droughts. Climate change has exacerbated the frequency and severity of droughts, leading to water scarcity that affects agriculture, livestock, and access to clean drinking water. The Namibian newspaper recently reported that over 300 people in the Omusati region have died of hunger, while 263 were hospitalized due to hunger during the current prolonged drought in the Omaheke region (The Namibian, 2024). Figure 4: Source: SASSCAL 2024 http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 10 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Desertification: Large parts of Namibia are prone to desertification, which reduces arable land and negatively impacts food security. Land degradation due to overgrazing, deforestation, and climate change threatens livelihoods, particularly in rural areas. Extreme Weather Events: Namibia faces increasing risks of extreme weather events, such as floods and heatwaves, which can cause damage to infrastructure, disrupt livelihoods, and lead to the displacement of communities. Figure 5: An illustration of the severe impacts of climate change event in Namibia. Source: New Era 2023 http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 11 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Food Insecurity and Livelihoods: Most of Namibia’s population depends on rainfed agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate change-induced droughts and desertification directly threaten agricultural productivity, leading to food insecurity. This situation can exacerbate poverty and increase dependence on food aid. Livestock farming is a critical economic activity in Namibia. Droughts and water shortages reduce grazing land and water availability, leading to livestock losses and affecting the livelihoods of herders and rural communities. Transboundary Water Resources: Namibia shares key water sources, such as the Kunene, Okavango, and Zambezi rivers, with neighbouring countries. Climate change-induced changes in precipitation patterns can reduce water flow, affecting water availability. This situation can strain relations with neighbouring countries over shared water resources. Migration and Displacement: As environmental conditions worsen, there is a risk of increased internal migration, with people moving from rural to urban areas in search of better opportunities. This can lead to overcrowding in cities, pressure on urban infrastructure, and increased resource competition, potentially leading to social tensions. Namibia could also experience cross-border migration from neighbouring countries facing similar climate challenges. This influx of migrants can strain local resources and create tensions between communities. Resource-Based Conflicts: Competition for scarce resources like water and arable land can lead to conflicts between communities. These conflicts can be exacerbated by ethnic or tribal tensions, potentially destabilising regions within the country. In light of the foregoing climate crisis??, it is evident that Namibia stands at a critical crossroads where the impacts of climate change are increasingly threatening its environmental, social, and economic stability. The entwined and mutually dependent nature of climate, peace, and security challenges demands urgent and coordinated action. Namibia as a nation vulnerable to extreme weather events, water scarcity, and desertification, must act decisively to safeguard its people, resources, and future. The following are key recommendations to ensure the achievement of social cohesion and stability and ultimately, sustainable peace. Strengthen Climate Resilience and Adaptation: Develop a comprehensive climate adaptation plan, invest in water security and promote climate-smart agriculture. Foster Peace and Conflict Prevention: Enhance Conflict Resolution Mechanisms. Strengthen local and national mechanisms for resolving conflicts related to resource scarcity, such as disputes over water and land, promoting community dialogue and cooperation and involving traditional leaders in peacebuilding efforts. There is also a need to tackle the root causes of social tensions by addressing inequalities in access to resources, services, and economic opportunities, focusing on empowering marginalised groups, including women, youth, and Indigenous communities, to actively participate in decision-making processes. Promote Regional Cooperation: Work closely with neighbouring countries and regional organisations, such as the Southern African Development Community (SADC), to manage shared resources and address cross-border climate and security risks. Strengthen regional peace and security frameworks to prevent and mitigate conflicts. Enhance Environmental Conservation and Biodiversity Protection: Implement policies and programs that protect Namibia’s unique ecosystems and biodiversity. This includes expanding protected areas, restoring degraded lands, and combating poaching and illegal wildlife trade. Support Community-Based Conservation by encouraging and supporting community-led conservation initiatives that integrate traditional knowledge and sustainable practices, but also ensure community benefit. Strengthen Research and Evidence generation: Collaborate with research institutions to improve climate and security data collection and analysis. Use this data to inform policymaking and enhance the effectiveness of climate adaptation and conflict prevention strategies. CALL- TO- ACTION/ RECOMMENDATION http://www.sasscal.org PAGE 12 Promoting Science for Sustainable Development’ www.sasscal.org Brown, L. H. (2009). The economic impact of climate change on commercial agriculture in Namibia. Nature, December. Cubasch, U., Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C. A., Raper, S., Yap, K. S., A. Abe-Ouchi, Brinkop, S., Claussen, M., Collins, M., Evans, J., Flato, G., Fyfe, J. C., Ganopolski, A., Gregory, J. M., Hu, Z., … Zwiers, F. (2001). Chapter 9—Projections of Future Climate Change. In Projections of Future Climate Change (pp. 525–582). Dirkx, E., Hager, C., Tadross, M., Bethune, S., & Curtis, B. (2008). Climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment, Desert Research Foundation of Namibia and Climate Systems Analysis Group, Prepared for the Ministry of Environment and Tourism. Jonas, H. (2018). Assessing the evidence: Migration, Environment and Climatic Change in Namibia. International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons. Ministry of Environment and Tourism. (2019). National Policy on Climate Change for Namibia (2011). Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 53(9), 1689–1699. National Policy on Climate Change. (2011). Rahman, M.A., Afridi, S., Hossain, M.B., Rana, M., Al Masum, A., Rahman, M.M., Al-Maruf, A., 2024. Nexus between heat wave, food security and human health (HFH): Developing a framework for livelihood resilience in Bangladesh. Environmental Challenges 14, 100802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. envc.2023.100802 Teofilus, N., Petrus, M., & Reagan, C. (2015). Third National Communication of the Republic of Namibia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Issue Windhoek, Namibia.). Thompson, S. (2021). The effect of long-term climatic trends on vegetation phenology of Namibia’s forests and woodlands. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30646.83529 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was carried out with support from the CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience, ClimBeR, the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration, and the SASSCAL 2.0 TIPPECC Project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund (https://www.cgiar. org/funders/) and SASSCAL (https://www.sasscal.org). 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