IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 5/21/2025 Anticipatory action and implementation of the IGAD regional roadmap George Otieno, ICPAC Jameel Observatory drylands food security and resilience early action research and evidence dialogue, Addis Ababa, 15-16 May 2025 IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 2 RECENT INTERPLAY OF CLIMATE RISK FACTORS OVER IGAD REGION 2009/2010 Severe droughts: widespread famine MAM 2024 Severe Flooding: loss lives and destruction of properties JJAS 2024 Landslides: loss of lives and destruction of properties IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 3 • Established in 1989 as the Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi (DMCN) • 2007, the Protocol establishing the Centre signed & the name changed to IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) • ICPAC is a WMO Regional Climate Centre (WMO-RCC) for Eastern Africa. • ICPAC is a member of AUC/NEPAD Network for Water Centres of Excellence. • ICPAC has an Observer Status with the UNFCCC • We provide climate services to over 300m people 8 IGAD Member States + 3 East African States IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Introduction Several organizations are designing and implementing Anticipatory Action( AA) approaches to reduce risks, build resilience, and better prepare for disasters • Fragmentation: The implementation of AAs across various agencies is still fragmented, with multiple initiatives running in parallel in different areas. • Pilots Unscaling up: The scaling of AA effort is a challenge due to organization specific coordination structures, with no agreed-upon inter-agency coordination mechanism or legal framework. • Uncoordinated Systems: This leads to organizations designing and implementing AA in different ways, resulting in unharmonized trigger systems, plans, protocols, and actions, which is likely to cause confusion, duplication of efforts, and limit the scale and effectiveness of the AA approach. • IGAD through its multi-Agency platform(RTWGAA) has developed a regional roadmap known as the IGAD Regional Roadmap for Anticipatory Action (IRRAA). Enhancing the coordination role of IGAD to support the co-development and implementation of AA at both regional and national levels Providing strategy for resource mobilization and partnerships Advocating for and integrating AA principles and approaches into National and Regional policies and strategies Strengthening Early Warning Systems (EWS) and decision support tools for AA Objectives of the Roadmap IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 5/21/2025 Aims to establish a cohesive regional approach to AA, harmonized and integrated within regional and national policies and strategies informing how AAs are designed to foster climate-resilient communities across the IGAD region Coordination IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 6 Pillars of Roadmap https://www.icpac.net/publications/igad-regional- roadmap-for-anticipatory-action/ https://www.icpac.net/publications/igad-regional-roadmap-for-anticipatory-action/ https://www.icpac.net/publications/igad-regional-roadmap-for-anticipatory-action/ IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) ❖ Consolidate various approaches used in the region to develop triggers and thresholds. ❖ Provide a harmonised methodology and guidance for developing triggers. ❖ Provide technical support and capacity building for trigger development. ❖ Guide cross-country coordination on the development, monitoring and issuing of triggers, especially for transboundary hazards. ❖ Systemize the development and updating of triggers within DRM and humanitarian systems and structures. IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) ❖ Develop a regional inventory for existing Anticipatory Actions ❖Define guidance for a harmonised approach to developing AAs for different hazards ❖Provide technical support for the development of joint anticipatory action plans, developed and endorsed by governments with support from partners. ❖Provide guidance for design and delivery of AAs for transboundary hazards. ❖Guide the integration of joint anticipatory action plans in government disaster risk management frameworks and in humanitarian systems. IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) ❖Develop guidance on identification, access and layering of different funding mechanisms to sup- port pre-arranged AA financing at scale. ❖Guidance to integrate pre-arranged financing for AAs to the existing social protection schemes. ❖Provide technical support to integrate pre-arranged financing systems for AA into relevant financing systems. ❖Support the development of AA financing strategies, embedded in DRF strategies IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) ❖Map the existing AA systems, initiatives and priority needs and maintain regular updates. ❖Develop a regional strategy for communication and advocacy to support implementation and financing of the AA approach at scale. ❖Develop a regional Information Management System on AA in different contexts in the region. ❖Establish a regional platform for communicating triggers and thresholds and AAs activated. IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) ❖ Map out the priority research, learning and evidence needs for AA as well as actors in the region. ❖ Develop a strategy for regional AA research, learning and evidence. ❖ Develop guidance for generating AA evidence and learning, including generating evidence on cost-benefit analysis of AA. ❖ Conduct a mid-term and end-term evaluation to assess the effectiveness of the RTWGAA and progress in implementation of the regional AA roadmap. ❖ Establish a community of practice for research, learning and evidence on AA in Eastern Africa IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) ❖Develop a regional policy to enable AA or integrate the approach in relevant existing regional policies. ❖Provide technical support to NTWGs in the countries in the region to integrate AA in relevant policies. ❖Integrate the AA systems into existing mainstream systems/ mechanisms e.g., DRM, social protection, financing, and humanitarian systems. ❖Organise regular regional AA events such as dialogue platforms and ensure the RTWGAA is represented in key regional and international events such as UNFCC COP, DRR Platform, Global AA Platform etc. IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Regional/International Alignment and Opportunities ❖The IGAD Roadmap contributes to IGAD regional strategy for DRM on priority areas encompass enhancing risk knowledge, fostering effective disaster risk governance, promoting investment in DRR for building resilience ❖The Africa Union Commission Programme of Action (PoA) for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 ❖ Sendai Framework, which focuses on the adopting measures addressing the three dimensions of disaster risk (exposure to hazards, vulnerability and capacity, and hazard characteristics). ❖Other global initiatives that align with Roadmap are SDGs particularly SDGs 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 11,13, 15,5 and Paris Agreement to combat climate change and adapt to its effects. IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Technical Working Group Establishment IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) IMPLEMENTATION OF ROADMAP PILLARS IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Wednesday, May 21, 2025 IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 16 REGIONAL TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP i. Convene the quarterly TWG meeting ii. Oversee the implementation of sub-working group activities iii. Provide strategic direction to in relation to the evolving context in the region iv. Ensure linkages between the TWG and the national level AA TWGs v. Ensure that a mid-term and end-term evaluation is conducted to assess the effectiveness of the TWG and progress in implementation of the regional AA roadmap Roles & Responsibilities https://www.icpac.net/publications/terms-of- reference-for-regional-technical-working-on- anticipatory-action/ https://www.icpac.net/publications/terms-of-reference-for-regional-technical-working-on-anticipatory-action/ https://www.icpac.net/publications/terms-of-reference-for-regional-technical-working-on-anticipatory-action/ https://www.icpac.net/publications/terms-of-reference-for-regional-technical-working-on-anticipatory-action/ IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Capacity Support to Develop National AA Roadmap 1. AA Roadmap: The National roadmap developed with multi-stakeholder support and launched in 2024 IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 2. Capacity Support to Develop National AA Roadmap-Uganda ❖ First consultative meeting to support the development of National AA roadmap-Uganda ❖ Over 40 stakeholders from various sectors convened to brainstorm and come up with key priorities to reflect on the AA roadmap. Objective: Ensure sustainability of the systems and developed, with stronger push for policy makers (Government and politicians) to be engaged and lead the process. IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Policy developments/Regional strategies 1. The Eastern Africa Dialogue Platform: The inaugural Eastern Africa Dialogue platform on AA (EADP) brought together over 200 stakeholders with 38 Government agencies represented. The EADP led to a 17 points declaration that sets out the region’s commitments towards AA (https://www.icpac.net/documents/956/1st_Eastern_Africa_ Dialogue_Platform_2024_report.pdf). https://www.icpac.net/documents/956/1st_Eastern_Africa_Dialogue_Platform_2024_report.pdf) https://www.icpac.net/documents/956/1st_Eastern_Africa_Dialogue_Platform_2024_report.pdf) IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Capacity Development on Triggers and Thresholds Support of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Developing Triggers and Thresholds to support AA • Djibouti, in collaboration with IRI- Drought • Kenya- Marsabit, Wajir, Garrisa – Drought • Uganda- Karamoja- Droughts and Floods • Burundi; Droughts and Floods • Somalia- Floods Support of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Developing Machine Learning based Forecasts • Kenya and Ethiopia have been producing the ML forecasts over the past years • Awareness raising of the ML has been done for the 10 member states in Eastern Africa • Support to Uganda and Rwanda is planned for the next few months Strength regional and national capacities for AA across the IGAD region, resulting in more coordinated, timely, and effective anticipation and responses to climate- related hazards. Coordinated Multi-Hazard & Conflict Sensitive AA in the Greater Horn of Africa Implementation of the IGAD RoadMap for Anticipatory Actions Support Disaster Mangement Centres in Early Warning Systems Somalia, SoDMA staff attended a one month intensive training on Early Warning Systems IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 21 Harmonization Approaches to Co-Define and Develop Triggers-Thresholds for major Hazards in the region The drought forecasts for extreme, severe and moderate categories for Wajir (top panel) and Marsabit counties (bottom panel) during OND season 2022 Drought Phase Thresholds Moderate between -0.14 and -0.244 Severe between -0.244 and -0.593 Extreme less than -0.593 Return periods Marsabit. Wajir Moderate: 51.28205128. 53 Severe :35.8974359. 34 extreme 15.38461538. 17 77% 58%83% 60% 34% 51% IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Mild drought Forecast Probability: 44% Moderate drought Forecast probability: 22% Severe drought Forecast probability: 20% M ar sa b it IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Mild drought Forecast Probability: 32% Moderate drought Forecast probability: 17% Severe drought Forecast probability: 22% W aj ir IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) ❖ Training to develop triggers and thresholds to support AA-Burundi Capacity Support to Member States IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) 5/21/2025 • In Ethiopia, WFP supported the Government of Ethiopia to activate AAs for drought in Somali and Oromia Regions. AAs delivered were cash transfers to 64,086 people, early warning information reaching 525,714 people (51.4% women) and fodder production and rehabilitation of water structures reaching 202,773 people. • In Somalia, AAs were activated for floods during the March-May 2024 season, building on lessons learned from the previous activation. Flood Early warning messages were sent to 1.9 million people, anticipatory cash transfers of US $ 1 Million were distributed to 80,000 individuals (66% were women) • The Activations resulted into the following measurable outcomes: AA supported households had better food consumption levels than households receiving post- flood assistance; Households supported through AA portrayed better resilience and ability to cope against climate shocks, and diversified dissemination channels for early warning messages ensured optimal coverage, while timely delivery of information translated to informed decision-making. AA Activations in 2024 IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) Areas of Focus • Increased evidence generation to support the Advocacy with Governments and other stake-holders • Strengthen Standardization of protocols and EAPs to harmonise understanding across partners and member states • Mainstreaming--Establishment and re-alignment of legal frameworks to support sustainability of AA within Government systems • Scaling up the support to Capacity building and Harmonization on trigger and AA development including IGAD clusters • Further support in Development of the Impact Based Forecast – increase the hazards and sectors • Strengthening coordination of AA Mechanism and initiatives in the region • Development of AA and Trigger/ Thresholds systems for decision making with operational ICPAC Systems IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE (ICPAC) THANK YOU! www.icpac.net http://www.icpac.net/ Slide 1 Slide 2: RECENT INTERPLAY OF CLIMATE RISK FACTORS OVER IGAD REGION Slide 3 Slide 4: Introduction Slide 5 Slide 6 Slide 7 Slide 8 Slide 9 Slide 10 Slide 11 Slide 12 Slide 13 Slide 14: Technical Working Group Establishment Slide 15 Slide 16 Slide 17: Capacity Support to Develop National AA Roadmap Slide 18 Slide 19: Policy developments/Regional strategies Slide 20: Capacity Development on Triggers and Thresholds Slide 21: Harmonization Approaches to Co-Define and Develop Triggers-Thresholds for major Hazards in the region Slide 23 Slide 24 Slide 25 Slide 26 Slide 27: Areas of Focus Slide 28