Kenya County Climate Risk Profile Series Kenya County Climate Risk Profile: Narok County Highlights Agriculture is one of the main sources of livelihood in Narok County (Figure 1). It engages over 46% of the population. The county has an absolute poverty rate of 34%, and 12% of the population experiences food poverty. The county’s agro ecological zones range from highlands, which experience sufficient and reliable rainfall, to lowlands, which experience little and unreliable rainfall.. In the last 20-30 years, climate change has affected Narok County, with rainfall seasons becoming more unpredictable. Prolonged dry spells and droughts negatively affect crops like maize and livestock like sheep, dairy cow, and local chicken. Intense precipitation over short duration causes flash floods that destroy crops and property. Narok County farmers adapt to climate change effects by adopting water harvesting and pasture development, planting early-maturing and drought-resistant crops, and using improved breeds of livestock. Early warning systems, protection of water sources, range rehabilitation, climate and weather advisories, extension services, food and non-food aid services, and insurance can support the County adapt to climate change. Research, training, health, sanitation and nutrition interventions can also foster adaptation to climate hazards and vulnerabilities. Poor coordination between various local and national institutions, coupled with limited synergies in policies and programs hinder climate adaptation efforts. Non- food aid interventions need to focus on building human and financial capital. Figure 1: Map of Nandi County Republic of Kenya CONTENTS Highlights ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Table of Contents ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 List of Figures -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 List of Tables ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 List of Acronyms ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 Foreword ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 1. Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 2. County Context --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 2.1 Economic Relevance of Farming ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 2.2 People and Livelihoods --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 2.3 Agricultural Activities --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 2.4 Agricultural Value Chains ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.4.1 Maize ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.4.2 Dairy (Cow) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 2.4.3 Sheep (Meat) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 2.4.4 Local Chicken ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11 2.5 Challenges to the Agricultural Sector ---------------------------------------------------------------- 13 3. Climate Change and Agriculture: Risks and Vulnerabilities ------------------------------------- 13 3.1 Climate Change and Variability: Historic and Future Trends ------------------------------------ 14 3.2 The Climate from Farmers´ Perspectives ------------------------------------------------------------ 19 3.3 Climate Vulnerabilities across Value Chains ------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.3.1 Maize ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.3.2 Dairy (Cow) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.3.3 Sheep (Meat) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 3.3.4 Local Chicken ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 20 4. Climate Change Adapation ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 21 4.1 Factors that Determine Future Vulnerabilities to and Impacts of Climate Change ----------- 21 4.2 Adaption Options --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 4.2.1 Ongoing Practices -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 4.2.2 Potential Practices ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 5. Policies and strategies on Climate Change ------------------------------------------------------------ 27 6. Institutional capacity on Climate Change------------------------------------------------------------- 28 7. Synthesis and Outlook ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 30 8. Works Cited ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 9. Acknowledgements --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 10. Annexes ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 10.1 Glossary ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 32 2 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series List of Figures Figure 1: Map of Nandi County ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 Figure 2: Climate risk profile (CRP) development process. -----------------------------------------------------------------------6 Figure 3: Agriculture and Livelihoods in Narok County ---------------------------------------------------------------------------8 Figure 4: Map of Agroecological Zones in Narok County -------------------------------------------------------------------------9 Figure 5: Characterization of Selected Value Chains in Narok County ---------------------------------------------------------12 Figure 6: Elevation (left), historical (1985-2015) annual mean precipitation in mm (center), and historical (1985-2015) annual mean temperature in °C (right) for Narok County for the long rainy season -----------15 Figure 7: Historical monthly mean temperature and precipitation (average 1985-2015) in Narok County. The first long rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from January to June, while the second, the short rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from July to December. Bars represent total monthly precipitation, whereas red and blue lines represent maximum and minimum monthly mean temperatures, respectively. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------15 Figure 8: Annual total rainfall trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) -------------------------------------------------------------------------16 Figure 9: Annual mean temperature trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) -------------------------------------------------------------------------16 Figure 10: The average total number of consecutive dry days: historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) in Narok County for the long rainy season -----------------------------------------17 Figure 11: The average maximum 5-day running average precipitation in mm: historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right)in Narok County for the long rainy season -------------------------------18 Figure 12: Climate Change Adaption Strategies across Selected Value Chains in Narok County -----------------------26 List of Tables Table 1: National policies and strategies targeting climate change adaptation and mitigation ---------------------------27 Table 2: Institutions that are Currently Supporting Agriculture in Narok County ---------------------------------------------29 Narok County 3 List of Acronyms ASDSP The Agricultural Sector Development Strategy Program CDD Consecutive Dry Days CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture GDP Gross Domestic Product GoK Government of Kenya Ha Hectare KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics KSh Kenyan Shillings LGP Length of Growing Period MT Metric Ton NARIGP National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Project NCCAP National Climate Change Action Plan NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy NDMA The National Drought Management Authority NT35 Number of Days with Maximum Temperatures Greater Than or Equal to 350C P5D Average Amount of Precipitation over 5 Days USD United States Dollar Narok 4 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Foreword The mandate of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives is to create an enabling environment for sustainable development of agriculture and co-operatives for economic development. This objective underpins our desire and commitment to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens in a clean and secure environment as envisaged in our development blueprints, the Kenya Vision 2030, the Big Four Agenda and the Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy (ASTSG 2019 – 2029). The sector remains high on the national development agenda in terms of food and nutrition security, income generation, employment creation, saving and investment mobilization and export earnings. To realize the country’s aspirations of food and nutrition security, the Government through this Ministry is implementing the National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP) with the support of the World Bank. The development objective of the project is to increase the agricultural productivity and profitability of targeted rural communities in 21 counties and in the event of an eligible crisis or emergency, provide an immediate and effective response. The agriculture sector is however, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events. Responses that would enable the country to cope with these risks are outlined in the Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) Strategy and in the commitments of the Kenya Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In 2010, the Government developed the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) which recognized the impacts of climate change on the country’s development. This was followed by the development of the National Climate Change Action Plan in 2012. The focus of these initiatives include the development of county-level climate risk profiles to mainstream climate change perspectives in programs and development plans at county level. The Ministry has developed county climate risk profiles in 31 counties and NARIGP is supporting the development of profiles for an additional 14 counties. The purpose of the profiles is to inform county governments and stakeholders on the climate change risks and provide opportunities for integration into respective county development plans and processes. This climate risk profiles study will be used as a basis to climate proof projects or any other developments in fourteen counties (Samburu, Turkana, Kitui, Narok, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Muranga, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Nandi, Vihiga, Kisii, Nyamira and Migori). The study provides information on current and possible future climate scenarios, climate-related vulnerabilities and risks for key major agricultural value chains, policy landscape and the institutional capacity to deliver adaptation programs. Each profile presents adaptation and risk reduction options that can transform and reorient agricultural systems in the counties to increase productivity, enhance smallholder farmers’ resilience and mitigate against climate change. Finally, I call upon all stakeholders for their cooperation and support for adoption of CSA production practices that maximize the triple wins: increases productivity, enhanced resilience and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Through the adoption of new technologies and improved practices, we will realize the desired goal of Kenya being a food and nutrition secure country, fostering socio-economic development and improved livelihoods of Kenyans. Prof. Hamadi I. Boga, PhD, CBS Principal Secretary State Department for Crops Development and Agricultural Research Narok County 5 1. Introduction Through the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, and Cooperatives, the Government of Kenya Climate change is becoming one of Kenya’s most is implementing the National Agricultural and Rural serious threats. The country is susceptible to climate- Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP), with support from related events, and projections indicate that climate- the World Bank. This project aims to increase the related events will continue to affect Kenya in the future. agricultural productivity and profitability of targeted In many areas, extreme weather is now the norm. rural communities in selected counties. To address Rainfall is irregular and unpredictable; some regions climate change-related risks, the Alliance of Bioversity experience frequent droughts during the long rainy International and the International Center for Tropical season or severe floods during the short rainy season. Agriculture (CIAT) was engaged to do a climate risk Arid and semi-arid areas are particularly vulnerable to profile assessment. The aim of this assessment is to these extreme changes, putting the lives and socio- provide information on current and future climate economic activities of millions of households at risk. scenarios, identify vulnerabilities and risks, identify possible adaptations, and assess the feasibility of these adaptions. The Kenya Vision 2030 is a national blueprint that seeks to transform Kenya into a middle-income country that provides a high quality of life and a clean and secure This assessment aims to educate governments and environment to all its citizens by 2030. This blueprint stakeholders on climate change-related risks and has identified the agriculture sector as a key means to opportunities. This report will help governments and contribute to Kenya’s economic growth. However, the stakeholders integrate climate change perspectives agriculture sector is constrained by inadequate access into their development plans. to quality goods, marketing inefficiencies, a subpar investment environment, decreasing soil fertility, The Alliance implemented the assessment through a insufficient mechanization, land fragmentation, and - set of interrelated stages (Figure 2). It first initiated a most significantly - climate change. desk review of the conceptual and analytical context of climate change risks at national and county levels. In 2010, Kenya developed a National Climate Change Efforts were made to involve a wide range of institutions Response Strategy (NCCRS) which recognized that have past and ongoing work on climate change at the impact of climate change on the country’s national and regional levels. The team used globally development. This was followed by the 2012 National available data sources as well as collected data from Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP), which provided relevant government departments (e.g., Department a means for implementing response strategies and of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS), highlighted the country’s priorities. These two initiatives the Kenya Meteorological Department, Drought are focused on the national level, but the response Monitoring Center, county development plans) and to climate change also needs to be integrated into data portals (e.g., Kenya Open Data Portal). Data county-level policies, programs, and development was also collected through focus group discussions, plans. Initiatives need to be locally relevant and actively interviews with key informants, climate modeling and involve local stakeholders. three-day-long, sub-national stakeholder workshops. The final reports were then presented to and validated by national- and county-level stakeholders. Development of Data Collection 3 Days Stakeholders Report and Validation Methods Workshop in Each County ■ Literature Review ■ Validation of Priority Vcs and ■ ■ Report DratingMethods and Context Collected Statistics Socioeconomic Context Coordination ■ ■ Presentation of Historic Climate ■ Review (Internal and External) Focus Group Discussions and and Future Projected Changes ■ Validation of the Methods Key Informant Interviews ■ Validation Workshop With by National and County ■ Identification of Key Risks National and County ■ Climate Change and Impact Underlying Vulnerability Factors, Stakeholders Stakeholders and New Potential Adaptation Modelling Options ■ Assesment of Institutions and County Level Organizations Capacity to Deliver Adaptation Programs Figure 2: Climate risk profile (CRP) development process. 6 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series This document presents the Climate Risk Profile Ng’iro river that originates from the Mau Escarpment for Narok County. It is organized into six main and drains into Lake Natron, the Mara River that sections, each reflecting an essential analytical transverses Maasai Mara Game Reserve and drains step towards understanding current and potential into Lake Victoria, and the River Mogor, which feeds adaptation options in key local agricultural value chain the Sondu River (GoK, 2018). commodities. The first section offers an overview of the agricultural commodities that are key to food The Mau escarpments form the highland areas, and security and livelihoods in the county, and then lists they lie 3,100m above sea level. The escarpments major challenges to agricultural sector development form a majority of the county’s farming areas (GoK, in Narok. In the second section, it identifies the main 2013). These highlands are also the source of several climate hazards, based on an analysis of historical of the county’s major rivers. This determines, to a climate data and climate projections. These include large extent, the county’s settlement patterns. Most scientific assessments of climate indicators for dry of the agricultural activities in Narok County occur on spells, extreme rainfall, moisture stress, and heat arable land, which makes up approximately 47% of the stress, among others. Third, the report continues with county. These agricultural activities are extensive in the an analysis of vulnerabilities and risks posed by these Narok South, Narok East, Narok North sub-counties, climatic hazards to the identified value chains. Based the Mau region, the northern part of the Narok West on these vulnerabilities, the fourth section discusses sub-county, and most of the Emurrua Dikkir sub- current and potential on-farm adaptation options county (GoK, 2018). Narok County also includes and off-farm services. In the fifth section, the report conservancies, the Maasai Mara Game reserve, and provides snapshots of the enabling policy, institutional, national park, and urban land (GoK, 2018). and governance contexts for the adoption of resilience- building strategies. Finally, the sixth section presents pathways for strengthening institutional capacity to 2.1 Economic Relevance of Farming address climate risks. Narok County practices agriculture on both a subsistence and commercial basis. Over 46% of 2. County Context the county’s population derives their livelihood from agriculture (GoK, 2018). Approximately 252,880 ha of Narok County, located in the Great Rift Valley of Kenya, Narok County’s land is used for crops like wheat, barley, covers 17,933 km2. It is the 11th-largest county in Kenya. maize, beans, sugarcane, Irish potatoes, finger millet, It borders Bomet, Kisii, Migori, and Nyamira Counties pigeon peas, cowpeas, sweet potatoes, and cassava, to the west, Nakuru County to the north, Kajiado and horticultural crops like tomatoes, potatoes, County to the east, and the Republic of Tanzania to the cabbage, French beans, onions, and indigenous south. Narok County consists of Narok North, Narok vegetables. Farmers also keep dairy cows and poultry East, Narok South, Narok West, Trans Mara West and for subsistence. Trans Mara East sub-counties. It lies between latitudes 00 50’ and 10 50’ South, and longitudes 350 28’ and 360 Approximately 4% of the total land in Narok County is 25’ East. Narok County is home to numerous volcanic used for cash crops like maize, barley, wheat, coffee, landforms and major geothermal activities (GoK, tea, pyrethrum, and sugarcane. Wheat and maize are 2018). the highest income-earners in Narok County (GoK, 2018). The county farms an average of 148,812 Narok County has two dominant agroecological zones: tons of wheat and 220,462 tons of maize each year. the lowlands, which are suitable for pastoralism, In 2015, the 271,158 tons of maize that the county and the highlands, which are suitable for rain-fed produced was valued at 7 and a half billion Kenyan agriculture. Grassland, shrubs, and forests are the Shillings (KSh)1. The 132,172 tons of wheat that the dominant vegetation in the lowland areas of Mara, county produced was valued at roughly KSh 4 and Transmara, Osupuko, Loita, Narok South, Suswa, a half billion (GoK, 2018). The county keeps cattle, and Narok North sub-counties. They are therefore sheep, goats, poultry, donkeys, rabbits, bees, and fish suitable for livestock farming and protecting wildlife. for commercial purposes. There are about 1 and a half The forest’s main threat is encroachment and tree- million cattle, a little more than 1 million sheep, and felling for settlement, charcoal burning, firewood, and almost 1 million goats in the county (GoK, 2018). Fish logging. farming is on the rise. In 2020, there were 467 fish farmers in the county. There are about 425 fish ponds. Narok County’s agroecological conditions are There are 366 fish ponds in the Transmara West and influenced by altitude, soil type, rainfall pattern, East sub-counties, with others spread across other sub- vegetation, and human activities. The lowlands have counties (GoK, 2018). Fish production has increased low agricultural potential due to unreliable rainfall. from 8,078 kg in 2011 to 31,352 kg in 2015. In 2015, The Ewaso Ng’iro South basin and the Lake Victoria the total value of the fish that was harvested was about South basin dominate the county’s drainage system KSh 11 million (GoK, 2018). (CIDP, 2013-2017). These basins include the Ewaso 1At the current exchange rate as of 11/30/2020, KSh 109.50 equals US$ 1. Narok County 7 Livelihoods and agriculture in Narok Farming Demographics County’s farming area 2.4% Of Kenya’s population 8,494.51 km2 47% 1,157,873 inhabitants 45.5% of the population employed inagriculture production 91.33% 80% of farmers have title deeds 50% 50% Live in rural areas Farming activities Access to basic needs Food crops 33.7% of the population lives 31%in absolute poverty Cash crops Potable water 34.9% NAROK 6% Electricity for cooking 0.5% Livestock Electricity for lighting 19.7% 156 Group ranches Food security 0 Company ranches Farming inputs 12% of the populationsuffers from food poverty 32.9% C hildren stunted 2.4% Children wasted Infographic based on data from the County Integrated Development Plan (GoK, 2013-2017), the Agricultural Sector Development Support Program (GoK, 2017), and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS, 2019) Figure 3: Agriculture and Livelihoods in Narok County 8 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Of county’s agricultural land 2.2 People and Livelihoods Narok County had a total population of 1,157,873 in 2019 (KNBS, 2019a) (Figure 2). The male-to-female ratio was 1:1. The county had 241,125 households. 1,057,500 people, or 91% of the population, lives in rural areas and practices agricultural activities (KNBS, 2019a). About 9% of the population lives in urban areas (KNBS, 2019a). About 34% of the population of Narok County lives in absolute poverty. Approximately 12% experiences food poverty and relies on aid during food shortages (GoK, 2013). Nationally, the county is ranked 21st in terms of contribution towards poverty, with 41% of the population living below the poverty line (below USD 1.90/day). The drier lowland areas experience extreme weather conditions and shortages of food and pasture. Furthermore, 33% of the children in the county have stunting and 2% are wasted. Approximately 81% of the county’s males and 74% of the county’s females are literate. This number is rising as free primary education becomes more available (GoK, 2013). Despite Narok County’s proximity to rivers, only 8% of residents have access to piped water, and only 32% have access to potable water. 20% of the population has access to electricity for lighting, while 38% of the county uses solar lighting, and 20% uses torch or solar- charged spotlights. Roughly 72% of Narok County’s population relies heavily on firewood for cooking. This puts a lot of pressure on dwindling forest and vegetation resources (KNBS, 2019c). Figure 4: Map of Agroecological Zones in Narok County The main agricultural activities in Narok County are pastoralism and crop farming. The highlands can be classified as semi-arid to very arid (Wiesmann experience reliable rainfall and are intensely cultivated, et al., 2014). This leads to several distinct farming whereas the lowlands, which experience little rainfall, systems. Narok County engages in mixed farming, favor animal-rearing and pastoralism. Tourism and pastoralism, ranching, marginal mixed farming, and trading are also major economic activities in the agro-pastoralism (GoK, 2018). county. Tourism is the largest contributor to the county’s economy (KNBS, 2019b; GoK, 2018). Fish The average plot of land used for large-scale farming is farming is an emerging economic activity with rising 26.3 ha, while he average plot of land used for small- potential. The county is also rich in numerous natural scale farming is 6.1 ha (GoK, 2018). However, the sub- resources. Recent exploration of geothermal power division of land threatens large scale production in the in the Suswa area of the county has shown positive county. About 80% of Narok County landowners hold results. The process of harnessing solar power is title deeds. This number has grown with continuing already going on in the Talek area. The Transmara subdivision. The county’s land was initially communally sub-county also engages in gold mining (GoK, 2018). owned. The ranching community holds an average of Another important employment opportunity in Narok 10,000 acres. There are 156 group ranches in Narok is beadwork and making Maasai attire, which interest County (GoK, 2018). both locals and international tourists. Farmers in Narok County use few agricultural supplies (known as inputs), probably due to poor roads. Inputs 2.3 Agricultural Activities are also highly expensive and therefore inaccessible to farmers. The Narok County Government distributes The county has several different agroecological zones fertilizer, but this service does not reach many (Figure 4); the lowlands are suitable for pastoralism, farmers. Large-scale and small-scale farmers practice while the highlands are suitable for rain-fed agriculture. irrigation along rivers. However, the irrigation system The highlands experience sufficient and reliable is unsustainable, as farmers extract water directly from rainfall, while the lowlands experience little and the rivers using water pumps and without irrigation unreliable rainfall. Approximately 45% of Narok County permits. Very few farmers harvest rainwater for can be classified as semi-humid to humid, while 55% irrigation purposes. The county has a huge potential Narok County 9 for irrigation. 12,400 ha could ostensibly be used due to sporadic rains and diseases like maize lethal for irrigation, but only 3,160 ha is currently used for necrosis disease. For example, production dropped irrigation (GoK, 2018). from 462,981 mt in 2013 to 271,158 mt in 2015 (GoK, 2018). This dropped profit from roughly KSh 9 and a Fish farming was initially promoted under the half billion (87 million USD) in 2013 to KSh 7 and a government’s economic stimulus program to create half billion (68 million USD) in 2015. In 2012, 116,605 jobs for youth, reduce poverty levels, and improve food ha of land in Narok County grew maize. In 2016, this insecurity. About 320 fishponds were constructed in number reduced to 110,079 (GoK, 2018). the Transmara West and Transmara East sub-counties through this program. However, due to various factors, On large-scale farms, maize is the only crop grown. On including the fact that the government owns the small-scale farms, it is grown with other crops. Male- ponds, the ponds have been neglected. 160 ponds headed households produce higher amounts of maize are currently active as per the Fisheries Department of than female-headed or youth-headed households, Narok County. These ponds cannot meet the demand probably because they often have more capital to for fish, and farmers supplement their yield with fish purchase inputs that put them at an advantage (GoK, from rivers and dams. The Fisheries Department is 2013). Although men are the major decision makers in involved in fish consumption campaigns, and has also this value chain, women and youth are engaged across initiated efforts to revive the neglected ponds. different stages of the value chain. For example, women dominate the production stage, while male youth are 2.4 Agricultural Value Chains heavily involved in transporting maize, loading and unloading maize, and marketing. Several of Narok County’s agricultural commodities The main activities at the input stage of the value are prioritized in the county’s integrated development chain include acquiring land, inputs, equipment, and plan and development programs such as the National tools like tractors hoes, seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, Agricultural Rural Inclusive Growth Project and the and herbicides. Farmers face several challenges at Agricultural Sector Development Support Program, this stage. For example, due to high demand for fast- and government institutions such as the Kenya maturing and drought-tolerant maize seeds, dealers Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization. now sell locally-manufactured, low-quality varieties that Researchers compiled a list of the county’s major often result in low yields. Men are highly involved in the agricultural commodities, or value chains, by input stage, while women and youth are sometimes assessing criteria such as productivity, harvested area, involved. This is because men often have more production, production variations in the past five years, financial capital to purchase inputs. Agrovets, who economic value, calorie content, protein content, iron operate as input suppliers in this stage, mostly operate content, zinc content, and vitamin A content. This on medium-scale capacity. Some farmers purchase list was further honed by stakeholders, who judged inputs directly from manufacturers, but most purchase criteria such as the value chain’s resilience to climate from local agrovets. Activities in the on-farm stage of change, the percentage of the county’s population this value chain include land preparation, planting, who are involved in the value chain, and the value and crop husbandry. Men, women, and youth are all chain’s effects on economically and socially vulnerable involved in this stage, with most farmers combining groups The four value chains which were selected for family labor and hired labor. this report are maize, dairy cows, sheep (meat), and local chicken. At the post-harvest stage, the maize is dried, stored, and milled. Due to cultural norms, women and youth 2.4.1 Maize are highly involved in this stage, while men are seldom involved. Maize processors operate in small-scale and Maize is a major crop in Narok County. 61-80% medium-scale capacities. At the output market stage, of the population is involved in the maize value men are highly involved in packaging, branding, and chain. It is among the highest-earning cash crops in transportation activities. Youth and women are rarely Narok County. It is produced in all six sub-counties. involved in these activities. Wholesalers and retailers Maize is mainly grown during the long rainy season. operate in small-scale, medium-scale, and large-scale Sometimes it is grown during the short rainy season, if capacities. The National Cereals and Produce Board, farmers decide to plant early. Large-scale farmers and which buys maize from farmers, operates on a large medium-scale farmers produce maize as a cash crop. scale. Cooperative societies operate on a medium Small-scale farmers and some medium-scale farmers scale, while local cereal traders, who comprise the produce maize for subsistence. majority of Narok County’s cereal traders, operate on a small scale. Although most farmers still sell their On average, the county produces between 200,000 produce to brokers, a good number of Narok County’s mt and 250,000 mt of maize annually. About110, 000 farmers have shown interest in joining agricultural ha of land in Narok County are dedicated to growing cooperatives. These cooperatives offer the farmers maize. This level of production brings in over KSh 6 better marketing opportunities and increase their and a half billion each year. Maize production fluctuates bargaining power, as customers can only buy from the cooperatives at a set price. 10 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 2.4.2 Dairy (Cow) Cooperative support is rapidly growing. It is expected that Narok County’s dairy cooperatives will soon be Dairy farming is an important value chain in Narok able to provide farmers with extension, breeding, County and involves 81-100% of the population. marketing, financial, and insurance services (GoK, Almost every household keeps dairy cows. Dairy 2018). cattle are mainly kept for commercial milk production under small-scale, mixed-crop systems. Most of Narok 2.4.3 Sheep (Meat) County’s dairy cows do not graze. There are not many free-range systems in Narok County, as the land is highly subdivided. Each household has an average Between 81-100% of Narok County’s population is of 2 to 5 milk-producing cows. Currently, the average involved in the sheep meat value chain, as almost every household produces 5 liters of milk per cow per day. household keep sheep as a major source of livelihood. The county aims to reach 10 liters per cow per day In 2015, there were 1.2 million sheep in Narok County by the end of 2022 (GoK, 2018). Narok County also (GoK, 2018). In other parts of the county, sheep are exports milk to other counties. There are close to kept with goats and managed in much the same 300,000 heads of dairy cattle in Narok County. Exotic manner. Sheep are kept in mass for commercial and cross breeds are mostly kept in the agro-pastoral purposes by the county’s pastoralists. In other regions, areas of the county and in the highlands. Narok sheep are kept under mixed farming systems, solely in County also hosts extensive pasture establishment and highly productive areas. conservation activities. At the input stage of the sheep value chain, farmers The input stage of the dairy value chain requires feed require capital, feed, and veterinary services. artificial insemination services, and extension services. Consequently, men are highly involved at this stage, These services are supplied by the Department of as they often have high financial capacity. The input Livestock and programs like the Agriculture Sector suppliers at this stage operate on a medium scale. Development Support Program and the National Farmers at the on-farm stage usually operate on a large Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project. scale, and their main activities include deworming, Input suppliers, agro-dealers, and agrovets supply vaccinating, and feeding. Men and male youth are feeds, supplements, and vaccines, and operate on highly involved in the on-farm stage, while women are a medium scale. Because men have more financial sometimes involved. capital, they are highly involved in this stage, while women and youth are seldom involved. At the on-farm At the post-harvest stage, collection, transportation, stage of the value chain, women are highly involved and slaughtering are important activities. Men and in feed formulation, pasture establishment, heat male youth are highly involved in these activities, while detection and insemination, feeding, cleaning, milking, women are seldom involved. At the output stage, vaccination, spraying, and deworming. Despite men processing, linking farmers to buyers, and selling being the owners and decision makers of the dairy creates income for farmers. At this stage, men are cattle value chain, they are only somewhat involved highly involved, youth are sometimes involved, and in the on-farm stage. Youth are highly involved in this women are rarely involved. Meat processors operate at stage. a small-scale level. The butcheries in Narok County are usually small to medium in scale, with most butcheries At the postharvest stage, youth are highly involved in located in town centers. The wholesalers and retailers milk transportation, processing, and storage. Men are of this value chain also operate on a small-scale. seldom involved at this stage, but women are highly Sheep are usually sold locally, and there is no major involved, especially in processing and storing. At the institution that governs pricing, marketing, and selling output market stage, youth are highly involved in within this value chain. promotion, branding, and linking farmers to buyers. Men and women are seldom involved in these activities. 2.4.4 Local Chicken The major challenge facing the dairy value chain is Local chicken is an important value chain in Narok water shortage and reduced pasture. This occurs County. Between 81-100% of the population is during increasingly prevalent dry spells. With sufficient involved in this value chain. Almost every household in pasture and supplement, milk production can rise the county keeps chicken as a major source of white to 10-15 liters per cow per day, but the prevailing meat and income. The chickens are usually kept for conditions and agricultural practices in Narok County household consumption, but eggs are also sold during can only support the production of lower than 6 liters peak laying season. Local chicken farming usually per cow per day. Farmers who preserve pasture in the happens under small-scale, free-range systems, with form of hay are better-prepared for droughts. Milk is only a few large-scale farmers operating near major usually collected and marketed through cooperatives, urban centers. Some birds are used as pest control on and this provides fairer pricing for farmers. Currently, farms. Eggs and meat are consumed in the household, there are 30 dairy cooperatives in Narok County. and excess is sold to local kiosks and hotels. Narok County 11 Most farmers in Narok County are small-scale, as most and youth are all involved in pricing, linking farmers to birds are reared with very little input and for domestic buyers, and selling. consumption. At the input stage, farmers buy chicks, feeds, and bird-housing materials. Men are highly Local chicken farming mostly involves women and involved in this stage, as they purchase inputs and youth. They are involved across all stages of production, build chicken houses. Women and youth are seldom from cleaning chicken houses to feeding, egg selection involved in this stage. Input suppliers are medium- and grading, sales, and processing chicken meat. scale and can be found in easily-accessible local centers. At the on-farm stage, women and youth are The marketing and sale of local chicken is carried out highly involved in cleaning the poultry houses, feeding, locally. The beneficiaries are usually middlemen and and vaccination. The men are seldom involved in this brokers who purchase the birds at very low prices and stage, due to cultural norms. At the post-production then sell them for profit. However, youth have begun to stage, men, women, and youth are all involved in market birds through online platforms. This practice is transportation, slaughtering and storage. Chicken promising, as it allows them to reach a wider market. processors operate at a medium scale level in Narok Many farmers are receiving reasonably-priced orders County. At the output market stage, men, women, from hotels and restaurants. Agricultural value chains in Narok Provision of On-Farm Harvesting Product Inputs Production Storage and Processing Marketing Service providers engaged in Value Chain % of people engaged in the value chain M L S S 81-100% Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of:Sheep (mutton) Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth Men Women Youth in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain M L M S M S L M S 61-80% Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Maize Men Women and Yout h Men Women and Youth Men Women and Youth Men Women and Youth in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain M S M M 81-100 Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of:% Chicken Men Women and Yout h Men Women and Youth Men Women and Youth Men Women and Youth (local) in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain M M S S L 81-100% Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Importance of: Dairy Men Women and Youth Men Women and Youth Men Women and Youth Men Women and Youth (cow) in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain in the value chain Conventions Service Providers: Suppliers Farmers Processors Wholesalers/ retailers S small-scale M medium-scale L large-scale ND: No data 5 Importance of women, 4 youth men and women: 3 1 = very low; 2 = low; 3 = medium; 4 = high; 5 = very high; 0 =non-exsistant; N/D = no data.2 1 Figure 5: Characterization of Selected Value Chains in Narok County 12 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 2.5 Challenges to the Agricultural Sector potato farmers. Rainy periods usually coincide with agricultural activities, which exacerbates the problem. Narok County is vulnerable to climate change. It is one of the drier counties in Kenya. The regions of Narok Conflict is also a major issue in Narok County. The County that lie near the Mau Forest and the highlands county experiences resource conflicts, tribal conflicts, are the only areas of the county that experience heavy and human-wildlife conflicts. For example, the Water rainfall. This means that the lowlands experience Resource Authority recommends that households water shortages. This puts pressure on the available access river water first, followed by livestock farmers water resources. The county’s reliance on rain-fed and irrigation farmers. However, farmers upstream agriculture, especially in the lowlands, leads to crop often retract huge amounts of water using irrigation failure. This leads to food shortage and sometimes pumps, leaving people downstream with little starvation, which forces some to rely on food donations water. This causes tension between upstream and and other forms of relief from neighboring counties. downstream households. Human-wildlife conflict in During droughts, livestock go without pasture and unprotected areas has led to injuries, livestock losses, water. crop damage, and death. Another major challenge to Narok County’s agriculture Another major challenge to Narok County’s agricultural is flash floods. Heavy downpours coupled with heavy sector is inadequate extension and veterinary services. winds erode fertile lands, destroy farm structures, and This is mostly due to low staffing. The Narok County displace people. This affects agricultural productivity. Agricultural Department attests that it is understaffed, Floods occur almost every year during the long rainy and that this limits their capabilities. They also report season. Narok North sub-county, which is home to that they do not have the adequate financial and Narok town, is one of the sub-counties that is hardest transport resources to service the whole county. hit by floods. During these floods, roads become impassable and market areas become flooded. Inadequate policy implementation is a major issue in Narok County. Policies often contradict each other, and Expensive inputs are a major hindrance to Narok county departments have unclear roles. For example, County’s agriculture. Inorganic fertilizers, improved there are few policies that regulate market prices. This seed varieties, breeding stock, artificial insemination leads to price fluctuation and instability. Middlemen technology, and livestock feed are some of the set low and exploitative prices, which negatively affects important inputs in Narok County. However, they are farmers. expensive and inaccessible. This means that farmers often do not have these inputs at the beginning of the 3. Climate Change and planting seasons. This, coupled with other factors, often leads to low productivity. Agriculture: Risks and Vulnerabilities Emerging diseases, parasites, and unfavorable weather all pose a challenge to livestock farmers. For example, In generating this profile, we assessed past trends and in the poultry value chain, farmers have opted to bring future projections of precipitation- and temperature- their birds into their homes during extreme weather. related hazards, such as extreme hydrological events Local chickens are adapted to warm weather, but (including flash floods), drought, moisture stress, heat extreme temperatures and periods of drought and heat stress, and the start and length of the growing seasons. stress have affected the value chain negatively. Chick The growing season was defined as follows: the first mortality is high due to extreme heat. During periods season (long rains) is the 100-day wettest period from of drought, less food is available for the chickens, and January to June, while the second season (short rains) fewer eggs are laid. is the 100-day wettest period from July to December (KMD, 2020). Value-addition activities, meant to prolong the shelf lives of perishable crops, are inadequate in Narok To assess drought and dry spells, we focused on the County. For example, milk and other perishable crops maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) taken like tomatoes and potatoes usually go bad during as days with rainfall less than 1mm/day (precipitation transportation. Farmers record post-production losses < 1 mm day-1). Heat stress was determined by of over 25% due to poor handling and inadequate measuring the total number of days with maximum storage facilities (ASDSP, 2020). temperatures greater or equal to 35°C (NT35). The start of the growing season was determined by 5 Poorly developed marketing and promotion systems consecutive growing days, while the length of the also contribute to post-production losses. Furthermore, growing period (LGP) was determined as the total the high cost of transportation affects farmers. Since number of growing days. Growing days are those farmers need to reach markets quickly, inadequate days during a season when average temperatures are access to market facilities worsens the situation. greater than or equal to 5°C and precipitation exceeds Furthermore, bad roads, coupled with sporadic half the potential evapotranspiration. rainfall, often negatively affect maize, tomato, and Irish Narok County 13 For each season, heavy precipitation events were The total annual rainfall trends showed a slight decrease captured with a 5-day running average of rainfall of precipitation for the period 1985-2015 which will (P5D), indicative of floods, and the 95th percentile of continue until 2040 during the long rainy season. In daily precipitation, indicative of extremely high rainfall the opposite the short rainy season is becoming wetter over a short period of time that can lead to events like since 1985 (Figure 8). The annual mean temperatures flash floods. The 95th percentile of daily precipitation are increasing for both rainy seasons since 1985 and distribution based on the 100 wettest days per season are projected to continue to raise in the future (Figure per year was calculated for each pixel. 9). To assess the degree to which rainfall and soil Our analysis of historic trends also shows that during moisture levels meet the potential water requirements the long rainy season, most of the county experiences for agriculture, focus was placed on drought stress, fewer than 25 consecutive dry days (CDD) (Figure 10). represented by the number of consecutive days in CDD serve as an indicator for risk of drought. In the each season where the ratio of actual to potential future, the county will experience an overall increase evapotranspiration (ETa/ETp) is below 0.5. This was up to 10 CDD, suggesting a slightly greater risk of dry calculated for each pixel per season per year by spells. During the short rainy season, the county has evaluating soil’s water capacity and evapotranspiration historically experienced fewer than 50 CDD. In the to define the number of days that could undergo a future, the county is projected to experience fewer than level of stress. 25 CDD during the short rainy season. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Flood risk is measured by the average level of 8.5, one of the four-greenhouse gas concentration precipitation over 5 days (P5D) (Figure 11). In Narok (not emissions) trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its County, P5D has historically remained below 25 fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. Future climate mm during the long rainy season. Our projections projections were generated based on an ensemble of indicate that the P5D value will increase, principally in multiple CMIP5 models (Taylor et al., 2012), using RCP the northern part of the county, by 15 mm or more, 8.5 for two future periods: 2030 and 2050.2 suggesting higher risk of floods in the north. The P5D will also increase by more than 15 mm in the southern 3.1 Climate Change and Variability: areas of the county. Historic and Future Trends Heat stress is measured by the total number of days during one season with a maximum temperature Narok County’s climate is highly influenced by certain greater than or equal to 35°C (NT35). In the long rainy physical features and the county’s altitude. Two-thirds season, Narok County’s levels of heat stress have been of the county’s land is classified as semi-arid and low, with no days above 35°C. Projections indicate that characterized by frequent dry spells and poor rainfall heat stress will marginally increase in some regions of distribution (GoK, 2018). Narok County receives Narok County and that some regions will experience between 600 and 1600 mm of precipitation per year. extreme heat events in the future. The north-western region of the county receives more than 1500 mm of precipitation per year. The north Moisture stress is measured by the number of days usually experiences the most rain (Figures 6). during one season where the ratio of actual evaporation levels to potential evaporation levels is less than 0.5. An analysis of temperature trends shows that Narok Higher levels of moisture stress negatively affect crops County usually varies between 10 and 28°C. The during the growing season. Current trends indicate eastern part of the county is significantly drier and that levels of moisture stress are expected to increase colder than the rest. The long rainy season, which falls across the county. between February and June, is significantly wetter than the short rainy season, which falls between August and Historically, the county’s long rains season lasts less December. The dry season, which experiences less than 4 months. Projections indicate that the LGP will than 50 mm of rainfall, falls between July and October. shorten by a month or two. The short rains season The month of April experiences the most rainfall, with will shorten by almost a month in the western and more than 150 mm (Figure 7). northern edges of the county and lengthen in the rest of the county. 2For historical precipitation and temperature trends, we used the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS). For future climate projections we used an ensemble of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012, Navarro-Racines et al 2020), specifically the MOHC_HADGEM2_ES, CESM1_CAM5, GFDL_CM3, MPI_ESM_LR, and MIROC_MIROC5 models. 14 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Figure 6: Elevation (left), historical (1985-2015) annual mean precipitation in mm (center), and historical (1985-2015) annual mean temperature in °C (right) for Narok County for the long rainy season ‘Long rainy season’ ‘Short rainy season’ Figure 7: Historical monthly mean temperature and precipitation (average 1985-2015) in Narok County. The first long rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from January to June, while the second, the short rainy season is the 100-day wettest period from July to December. Bars represent total monthly precipitation, whereas red and blue lines represent maximum and minimum monthly mean temperatures, respectively. Narok County 15 Figure 8: Annual total rainfall trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) Figure 9: Annual mean temperature trends for the long rainy and short rainy seasons in the past (1985-2015) and in the future (2020-2040 and 2041-2060) 16 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Figure 10: The average total number of consecutive dry days: historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right) in Narok County for the long rainy season Narok County 17 Figure 11: The average maximum 5-day running average precipitation in mm: historical (left), future projected (center), and projected change (right)in Narok County for the long rainy season 18 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 3.2 The Climate from Farmers´ The sections below highlight the major climate risks Perspectives that they pose to the major value chains. Narok County farmers believe that climate change is a 3.3.1 Maize natural occurrence that has been enhanced by human activities like deforestation and pollution. Farmers The maize value chain is affected by drought and attest that they used to plant their crops at specific extreme rainfall. During periods of drought, farmers dates, but that the seasons have become unpredictable struggle to acquire and lease land that is suitable to changing weather patterns. The dates of the rainy for maize production, as suitable land is limited and seasons have also changed. Farmers now have to wait very expensive. Furthermore, farmers in the drought- for the onset of the rains to begin to plan their planting. prone lowlands opt to lease land in the highlands. High demand means that farmers struggle to acquire The major rivers in Narok County, which once flowed machinery and land preparation services, which permanently from the highland areas, are becoming are necessary, especially if hardpans have formed seasonal and drying up. Streams and tributaries are on the soil’s surface. Removing hardpans, which also becoming more seasonal. This means that water are caused by drought, is difficult and requires both has become less available for domestic and agricultural tractors and expertise. Hardpans also render the soil practices. Prolonged dry spells and periods of drought difficult to break, which makes land preparation still have reduced the availability of pasture, and farmers more difficult. Other inputs, like seeds and fertilizer, are now struggling to feed their animals. Pasture also become difficult to access during droughts, as preservation is also threatened by increasingly warmer demand increases. weather. Farmers use less inorganic fertilizer when there is less Water shortages have resulted in changing roles within moisture in the soil. During drought, farmers require homes. Increasingly, men go in search of water for less labor as there is little land preparation and crop livestock. This is traditionally a job for women. Farmers husbandry activity. This negatively affects casual have also attributed the emergence of some pests and laborers who depend on this work to support their diseases to climate change. For example, maize lethal families. At the post-production stage, low output necrosis disease and tuta absoluta, a disease that means reduced collection, bulking, and transport affects tomatoes, are now common. activity. This results in reduced drying, storage, and processing activity, which affects workers at this Flooding has increased in the lower zones of the stage. At the output market stage, drought results county, including in Narok town. This causes massive in low output, reduced transportation, and reduced soil erosion and crop destruction. In extreme cases, packaging & branding activity. This affects workers. there have been incidences of hail. This disrupts agricultural activities and destroys crops. Floods have Extreme rainfall, on the other hand, causes reduced destroyed property, livestock, and farmlands, and have land leasing and acquisition activity, reduced land even killed humans. Farmers have also reported a preparation activity, and reduced input buying. At notable increase in temperature. This had negatively the on-farm stage, activity such as land preparation, affected some value chains, like those of poultry and planting, and crop husbandry also reduces as farms horticultural crops. In extreme cases, heat stress become waterlogged. Prices also increase. At the post- reduces production and leads to death in cows, goats, production stage, rains make it difficult to sun dry and sheep. Farmers have also reported increasing maize. This affects storage and milling activity. Rains problems with poultry parasites. also contribute to post-production losses by causing rotting and molding. At the output market stage, 3.3 Climate Vulnerabilities across Value extreme rainfall reduces packaging, branding, and Chains transportation activity, due to reduced yields and poor road conditions. Climate change is expected to pose serious threats to Narok County’s value chains in the future. These threats 3.3.2 Dairy (Cow) include moisture stress, heat stress, unpredictable seasons, drought, and intense rainfall. Moreover, while The dairy value chain is dependent on pasture such as not a historically significant hazard, Narok has in the fodder and hay. The natural grass that farmers use for recent past faced the menace of the locust invasion. It free-range cows is affected by climate change and is is reported that especially in Narok North, the swarms no longer adequate. Pasture is mainly rain-fed and is have raided farms, open spaces and grazing fields severely affected by drought. Drought affects the input causing unprecedented destruction on crops and supply stage by reducing fodder. Drought also affects pastureland. The swarms have reduced crop yields the dairy cows’ health, which increases both demand and pasture putting food security and livestock life in for and costs of veterinary services. At the on-farm question (Citizen News, 2020; FAO, 2020). stage, drought reduces supplies of the raw materials that are needed for feed formulation, as some of these materials are produced on-farm. Additionally, drought Narok County 19 leads to poor animal body condition and reduces the Drought negatively affects the input stage of the sheep demand for artificial insemination services because value chain. For example, during periods of drought, animals are weak or likely to be sick. farmers often bring severely sick and emaciated lambs to the market. Additionally, during droughts, farmers At the post-production stage, drought causes poor lose livestock and pay increased prices to maintain hygiene, as it becomes difficult to properly clean their stocks. During periods of drought, feed supplies milking equipment. This causes diseases and lowers diminish and farmers must move in search of pasture the quality of the milk. Low milk supply means job and water, which often results in human/wildlife loss for transporters and collectors. It also decreases conflicts. The price of and demand for vaccination, bulking and storage activity. At the output stage, low extension, veterinary services, and dependence on milk supply results in increased market prices. This food and non-food aid increases during droughts. At results in low quality milk, and diluted milk at the the on-farm stage, drought decreases deworming, market Branding and production costs increase due vaccination, and feeding activity. This is because to reduced volumes of product and high prices. drought reduces the availability of pasture and feed. Because animals develop poorly during droughts, Flash floods destroy pasture and pasture fields. They they have poor body condition and are also at higher also reduce access to service providers and destroy risk of contracting diseases. At the post-production infrastructure. At the on-farm stage, flash floods stage, drought decreases transportation activity and increase the cost of the raw materials of feed, as some forces animals to migrate long distances in search of of these raw materials are cultivated on-farm. The dairy pasture and water. At the output stage, prices decrease animals’ heat periods are also affected as their diets as farmers destock. Destocking also necessitates become irregular. Veterinary activities like vaccination, increased slaughtering and processing activity. spraying, and deworming services become inaccessible However, the emaciated animals’ have low quality and as infrastructure like road networks are destroyed. low quantity meat that fetches low prices at the market. Structures like cattle dips are also destroyed during flooding. Respiratory diseases proliferate, well as worm infestations in the wet and cold conditions. 3.3.4 Local Chicken At the post-production stage, delays in milk delivery The local chicken value chain is affected by drought cause major losses. These delays are due to poor and extreme rainfall. Drought is associated with chick transportation and handling and bad roads. The wet scarcity, reduced feed, and severe increase in the prices and cold conditions of flash floods cause mold that of chicken house construction materials like timber. compromises the quality of feed and conserved pasture. At the on-farm stage, drought results in inadequate In extreme cases, storage facilities are destroyed. At water. This makes it difficult to clean chicken houses. the output stage, markets become inaccessible. Milk Drought also severely reduces the availability and prices moderately increase as farmers pay higher quality of chicken feed. It also augments the price of transportation and processing costs. Prices rise to feed. reflect these costs, but not enough for farmers to make a regular profit. The bad roads also create poor At the post-production stage, drought and extreme farmer-customer links. rainfall mean that there are fewer birds to transport. This decreases slaughtering activities and increases To ensure maximum quality and quantity of milk egg spoilage. At the output market stage, the supply in the Dairy VC, farmers need quality fodder, feeds, of birds, eggs, and byproducts increase demand and supplements and water. moderately raise prices. The reduced supply also reduces market links. 3.3.3 Sheep (Meat) Extreme rainfall has significant impact on all stages of the local chicken value chain. Extreme rainfall The sheep value chain is most affected by extreme has been associated with less chick-buying, due to rainfall and drought. At the input stage, extreme impassable roads and extreme cold. The production rainfall raises the lamb mortality rate and renders of and access to feed is also challenging. As chicken markets, veterinary services, extension and AI services houses are destroyed in extreme rainfall, demand inaccessible due to poor roads and high costs. At for replacement materials increases. At the on-farm the on-farm stage, pest and diseases proliferate in stage, heavy rainfall necessitates frequent cleaning, the cold and wet conditions. Additionally, heavy rains vaccination, and treatment, due to moisture-related destroy feeder roads and hinder access to deworming infections. Heavy rains also reduce the accessibility of and vaccination services. This increases incidences of feed. diseases like blue tongue and pneumonia. At the post-production stage, there has been a At the output stage, heavy rainfall decreases moderate reduction in slaughtering due to bad weather. transportation, collection, slaughtering, and processing This weather leads to poor distribution of chicken and activity, due to poor road infrastructure. At the output chicken products and damaged packaging materials. stage, heavy rains cause poor market links and a At the output stage, farmers suffer losses as they are decrease in promotion, pricing, and selling activity. forced to reduce prices in order to minimize spoilage. 20 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Poor weather and poor roads also lead to less market of seeds. This ensures harvest even during short accessibility and a severe reduction in sales. growing seasons. 4. Climate Change Adaption The Dorper sheep and the Galla goat breed are drought-resistant, and farmers are embracing them. These breeds grow very fast and are not seriously 4.1 Factors that Determine Future affected by climate change. Farmers have also begun Vulnerabilities to and Impacts of establishing, harvesting and e conserving pasture. Climate Change Farmers plant pasture seeds during good conditions, then harvest and preserve the pasture in the form of In the maize value chain, poor, small-scale farmers are silage and hay. This enables the farmers to feed their vulnerable to climate hazards, as they are not able to cattle during periods of extreme weather. The Narok diversify their farms or buy high-cost inputs. Farmers County Government distributed 7 tons of grass seeds in the lowlands are also vulnerable during periods of to support pasture development. The processes of drought. Farmers who live far from extension workers, seasonally restocking and destocking livestock are or in regions with poor road networks, are also also gaining popularity, though growth is impeded vulnerable, as they do not receive timely information. by cultural factors. For example, Maasai and Kalenjin Illiterate farmers, who cannot decipher newsletters or farmers strongly believe in keeping large herds of text messages, are also vulnerable. cattle. Although climate hazards affect all dairy farmers, To control the spread of local chicken diseases and illiterate farmers, poor farmers, women, and youth parasites, farmers in Narok County now house their are more vulnerable, because they have inadequate birds. They also vaccinate and feed them, as opposed access to resources and information. to free-range systems. Narok County farmers have also begun introducing improved breeds of local chicken. Similarly, in the sheep value chain, poor farmers, These breeds grow fast and are resistant to diseases. women, and youth are vulnerable to climate change. In the dairy value chain, milk is processed into yoghurt, Farmers in the drought-prone lowlands are also cheese, and milk powder to increase its marketability. vulnerable. Pastoralists are vulnerable because their This increases the famers’ income and the product’s agricultural activity is less diversified and they do not shelf life. practice destocking activities. Furthermore, extension workers have difficulties keeping track of them as they Although it is rare, Narok County engages in some move about in search of water and pasture. conservation agriculture practices such as minimum tillage in order to conserve nutrients and moisture In the local chicken value chain, lowland farmers are within the soil. In contrast to conventional tillage, vulnerable to drought. Similarly, poor farmers, women, conservation tillage does not till the soil. This leaves youth, and the disabled are vulnerable to climate a certain amount of crop residue on the soil’s surface. change because they have little access to money or However, most farmers do not have knowledge on the education in order to adapt to extreme weather events. technology. Furthermore, the majority of the farming community in Narok County is skeptical of new techniques like conservation tillage. 4.2 Adapation Options Finally, the county government is developing dams 4.2.1 Ongoing Practices to store water as a long-term adaptation measure. Dams control flooding and act as sources of water for As dry spells in Narok County become prolonged and domestic, farming, and irrigation purposes. severe, rainfall has become intense and short-lived. If the water from these periods of heavy rainfall was to be harvested, it would be enough for all domestic, 4.2.2 Potential Practices livestock, and irrigation purposes (Water Resource Authority, Narok 2020). Narok County farmers are The county can upscale its education efforts for therefore encouraged to practice flood-based farming improving crop production and managing livestock and rainwater harvesting. This water serves as a (Figure 10). The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, safeguard against periods of drought and moisture Fisheries and Cooperatives currently offer education stress. services. However, climate change topics need to be integrated into education initiatives. Farmers have begun diversifying their livelihoods. Many farmers now rely on different sources of income. Rainwater harvesting is a potential adaptation that For example, many farmers have begun farming fish needs to be explored further. Conservation efforts must and chicken, in addition to livestock and crop farming. be upscaled in order to protect water catchment areas. Farmers have also begun growing drought-resistant, Currently, the Water Resource Authority works hand in early-maturing, and disease and pest-resistant varieties hand with the Water Resource Users Association to Narok County 21 ensure the conservation of different water catchments example, the lowlands are more prone to drought and to train farmers in water-harvesting efforts like and the farmers who live there have different needs using rooftops for collecting water. than farmers who live in the highlands. The Kenya Meteorological Department issues sub-county-specific The National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) weather and climate advisories to farmers. It also develops monthly drought early warning bulletins. informs farmers of expected changes to the growing Among the intervention proposed by NDMA for the seasons and rainy seasons. It advises people to move county include construction of water reservoirs, water from areas that are vulnerable to flooding. These early and sanitation programmes, development of market warning systems are very helpful to farmers and can infrastructure, enhanced livestock vaccination, crop be communicated through SMS, radio, and TV in local and livestock surveillance, protection of water sources languages. through catchment rehabilitation and de-silting, agroforestry, pasture establishment and conservation, Farmers can also get agricultural information from promotion of agricultural advisories and range media like television and radio. The information includes rehabilitation. weather advisories, information on seeds varieties, information on fertilizers, and demonstrations. The The Kenya Meteorological Department provides “Shamba Shapeup’ program, on Citizen TV, educates weather and climate information. The Departments farmers on current farming techniques. Farmers can of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries decipher also receive advisories in the form of phone messages this information and tailor it to farmers’ needs. For (SMS). 22 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Adaptation strategies used in selected value chains in Narok County Sheep Provision of On-Farm Harvesting Product (Mutton) Inputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Fewer sheep survive; input markets Inaccessible vaccines; increased Poor road networks; low flow of trade; High prices; inaccessible markets and are inaccessible; more animal feeds incidence of diseases blue tongue, washed-out bridges; disruption of slaughter houses; discouraged grow, thus increased productivity, pneumonia, and foot rot; improved market activities; few strategic farmers; poor handling techniques; bloating and invasive species; vet pasture and browsing conditions; structures for processing. poor sanitation and hygiene in services, extension services, and A.I improved productivity; less time spent slaughter houses. Extreme Rainfall services are inaccessible due to poor trekking to water sources.infrastructure and high cost of Consequences vaccines; increased levels of disease. Magnitude of Major-Moderate Minor-Moderate Major-Moderate Moderate Impact Improving breeds; using early warning Using private deworming services; Maintaining excess roads; using Using the readily available market- Farmers’ Current systems; promoting pasture production; empowering farmers on how to easily-issued permits; constructing Narok has a sheep market with a water conservation e.g. excavating deworm at the household level; crossing bridges; using livestock regulatory body in existence; the Coping Strategies water pans and using water tanks; improving accessibility of affordable market yards, slaughter houses, and market can be available on set using advisories from both the dewormers; integrating indigenous farm gates. Using ITK dates for trading and free market; livestock department and from private methods for deworming and new there is however a negative vets. technology; producing pasture in dry cultural association with sheep areas; paddocking individually. meat in Narok County. Managing grazing fields communally through ranging /conservation; insurance uptake, using seasonal weather forecast. Policy development on climate risk Teaching farmers how to deworm at Enhancing road maintenance; Promoting weighting before sale; adaptation; enhancing capacity home; improve accessibility and using railways as an alternative; exploring international markets; Potential building; improving road networks; affordability of dewormers; integrating regulating transport costs; forming cooperative groups to Adaption Options establishing research centers, and local and new technology; using ring increasing livestock market yards; control prices; using the internet; information hubs on climate change vaccination and isolation and quarantine discouraging farm gate sale; registering farmers for market and agricultural sectors; intensifying centers; training farmers on animal fumigating collection centers; access. pasture production and storage health; using routine/seasonal avoiding middlemen; embracing facilities; using new feeding methods; vaccination and improving monitoring; modern slaughtering and reseeding ranges; manufacturing shading feeding areas; enforcing land packaging methods; exploring the feeds at the county level; intensifying use policies; using new, adaptable use of by-product waste. extension services and improving feeding methods; introducing new mobility for extension services species. officers; employing more extension officers, and incorporating chief administrators at the ward level. Nasoosura and Masiro have poor roads, Inadequate extension services due to Political instability; national market National and international policies Underlying Factors so they are more affected; most farmers low or no funding; trends; middlemen who control impede growth; little structure; lack of do not have good storage for some farmers are still using traditional market prices and interfere in market exploration by relevant livestock feeds; flood-prone areas in the methods; poor shading; political markets; poor implementation of institutions; negative cultural beliefs - for lowlands are likely to be more affected interference; conflict; infectious diseases sales of good ACT. example, the belief that goat meat is from surrounding wild animals; better than mutton. human-wildlife conflicts. High capital required for maintenance Emaciated animals; inaccessible Poor road accessibility; little rustling; Low sheep prices; poor terms of trade; and nursing emaciated animals; poor dewormers; little growth and trekking to search for pastures and destocking; low prices and stronger pasture conditions, less animal feed; development; emerging livestock water; increased accessibility to market links; poor handling of increased migration leads to more diseases; limited supply of vaccines collection points; increase in meat/end products and poor hygiene. human and wildlife conflict; expensive thus become expensive; low transportation; low prices at farm Drought vet services, extension services, and productivity; poor foliage and pasture gates; increased animal slaughtering; A.I costs; limited vaccines. conditions; expensive animal feeds. increased processing. Consequences Magnitude of Major-Severe Major-Severe Minor- Major Moderate-Severe Impact Adopting red Masaai sheep; using Using ITK; using ring vaccination; Trekking in search of pasture; transport Using available markets on set days as Farmers’ Current available grazing land; opening of parks conducting disease surveillance and weak animals by motorcycles; using per the existing regulatory bodies; for grazing and using early-warning control; issuing continuous advisories market structures and sheep yards; cultural marketing. Coping Strategies advisories; migrating from lowlands to to farmers concerning animal health; using advisories to monitor offtake highlands; using maize and wheat conserving grazing land; using advisory animal health; selling to the local residues, and hay strolls; increasing services; migrating to other areas for community. livestock offtake rates; monitoring pastures and water; destocking/offtake. diseases. Developing shading for small scale Ensuring that farmers have easy access Regulating transport costs; discouraging Exploitation of international markets; farmers; introducing of drought-toler- to dewormers; intensifying disease foot trekking; encouraging railway formulation of cooperatives to control Potential ant breeds; educating farmers on surveillance and control; providing connectivity and improving road prices and pitch for more markets; using Adaption Options drought mitigation; introducing vaccines for farmers; controlling the networks; increasing livestock market ICT for marketing; registration of drought-tolerant feeds; subsidizing movement of livestock from one region yards; discouraging farm gate sales; farmers for market access; encourage animal feeds; encouraging to another; enforcing land use policy; increasing number of modern slaughter development of SACCOs and destocking; intensifying disease using adaptable feeding methods; houses; discouraging indigenous associations surveillance. providing pastures and water for slaughtering methods; improving farmers and livestock; destocking to slaughter houses’ sanitation; installing discourage migration; using advisories. piped water/boreholes; enforcing slaughtering law. Lack of coordination, leading to Migrating to search for pasture without Fluctuating market prices; no Poor market strategies for fast offtake; Underlying Factors conflicting activities; overgrazing; treating animals before migration; structured way of responding to inefficient cultural practices; inaccurate advisories; lack of knowledge shortage of extension officers; lack of drought emergencies; farmers not psychological stress; increased land on drought emergencies. adequate funding to mitigate drought; willing to reduce livestock during demarcation, which reduces animal insufficient coverage of water sources drought, leading to loss of livelihoods; populations; poor-quality breeds. and low volumes of water. emerging diseases, which could lead to market quarantine. Narok County 23 Maize Provision of On-Farm Harvesting ProductInputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Low acquisition of land; limited land High costs involved; low land Limited sun drying; difficulty in storing Limited packaging due to low preparation; little acquisition of farm preparation and planting activities; product; low-value addition activities production; little branding activity; less inputs like seeds. reduce crop husbandry activities e.g. like milling. transportation. weeding Extreme Rainfall Consequences Magnitude of Moderate-Major Major-Severe Major Impact Long-term leasing; using herbicides, Early preparation as guided by the Harvesting and drying in bits; drying in Packaging in big outlets and Farmers’ Current light machinery, and hand tools like market, though not wide-spread; early special stores/granaries; transporting supermarkets such as Naivas; jembes, pangas and waling tractors; planting; using of climate-smart products to dry areas for drying; packaging in small outlets like Coping Strategies diversifying inputs e.g. purchasing agricultural practices like pre-emerging owners improving their own stores; shops and posho mills; using barley seeds. herbicides. storing products in N.C.P.B storage; domestic transport like donkeys, use of small posho mills for value boda boda, walking tractors; addition; using millers in Narok town, grading roads to improve Olerai Osirua. transportation. Upscaling long-term leasing; Upscaling use of weather and Using diesel, electric, or solar cereal Developing regional branding upscaling the use of meteorological meteorological information on early land driers; enhancing warehouse companies and packaging Potential information before input acquisition; preparation; embracing climate-smart receipting systems; developing zonal facilities; developing producer Adaption Options upscaling the use of herbicides and agricultural practices like selective storage facilities with modern status organizations; improving road light machinery; enhancing the herbicides and pre-emerging herbicides. and sufficient capacity; operationaliz- infrastructure. diversification of inputs ing ng'etia national cereals and storage board stores; promoting individual storage facilities; developing regional value-addition centers. Farmers located in lowlands and Poor farmers are more likely to suffer Farmers in highland areas are most Farmers located in areas with poor Underlying Factors highlands areas such as Mosiro, Suswa than wealthier farmers, due to their lack likely to be negatively affected due to roads, like Olokurto, Olpusimoru, Melili, are prone to water logging, soil erosion, of capital for risk mitigation; uneducated inaccessibility; poor farmers and and Oloropil, are more likely to be and flooding; delivery of inputs impeded farmers are more affected; farmers who vulnerable groups are more likely to affected; small and medium-scale due to slippery roads; farmers from areas are located in areas with black cotton suffer due to lack of capital; farmers traders and packaging-industry players with poor roads like Olpeusimoru and soil like Narok South and Transmara who are located in politically may suffer more due to low capital. Melili will suffer more. East are more likely to suffer. marginalized areas like Olpusimoru and Sogoo are more likely to suffer. Difficulty in acquiring suitable land for Difficulty in land preparation due to Limits post-harvest activities e.g. Little packaging activity; little branding maize production; expensive hard pans; reduced planting; minimal drying, storage and milling. activity; little transportation activity. leasing/land acquisition due to crop husbandry activities like weeding. competing interests; expensive land preparation machines and services; Drought expensive inputs like seeds and Consequences fertilizers. Magnitude of Moderate-Major Major Major Moderate-Major Impact Long term leasing that is limited to Using chisel plough instead of disc Laborers seek alternative livelihoods Diversifying their farm practices; Farmers’ Current some areas; farmer groups offer plough at Teeka, Olorai farm, Ndovu like boda boda, and domestic chores; adopting dairy farming, chicken, extension services on climate change; farm; using M.E.T information; planting laborers adopt new activities to sorghum, millet, sweet potatoes. Coping Strategies shifting from disc plough to chisel drought-tolerant seed varieties like generate income, like Kazi mtaani, kazi plough; using the government-subsi- 513, DHO4, and DHO2; laborers kwa vijana, local chicken breeding, bee dized fertilizer program; using extension seeking alternative jobs like boda boda. keeping. services from MOALF on new seed varieties that are drought-resilient. Developing shading for small-scale Ensuring that farmers have easy access Regulating transport costs; Improving storage capacity for bumper farmers; introducing drought-tolerant to dewormers; intensifying disease discouraging foot trekking; encouraging harvest, branding, and packaging; Potential breeds; educating farmers on drought surveillance and control; providing railway connectivity, and improving enhancing diversification of goods to be Adaption Options mitigation; introducing drought-toler- vaccines to farmers; controlling the road networks; increasing livestock transported, for example, transporting ant feeds; subsidizing animal feeds; movement of livestock from one region market yards; discouraging farm gate cattle and sheep with barley. providing animal feeds to farmers; to another; enforcing land-use policy; sales; increasing the number of modern encouraging destocking; providing using adaptable feeding methods; slaughtering houses and their water to farms; intensifying disease providing pastures to farmers; providing sanitation; discouraging indigenous surveillance; sensitization water to livestock; destocking, which slaughtering methods; installing piped discourages migration; using advisories. water/boreholes; enforcing slaughtering laws. Poor farmers have less access to Small-scale farmers cannot acquire Vulnerable groups like youth and Large scale traders and packing and Underlying Factors required inputs and are more prone to appropriate machinery and equipment to women are more prone to suffer branding companies are likely to be drought compared to wealthier farmers; carry out their on-farm production post-harvest risks due to lack of more affected by drought due to their farmers located in lowland areas of Narok activities during drought; poor farmers capital; land-right practices do not heavy capital investment and low are more prone to the effects of drought cannot afford to lease appropriate favor vulnerable groups like youth, operation capacity. than farmers in the highlands; women machinery; lowland areas of Narok women, and PLWD; poor infrastructure and youth are vulnerable due to lack of County are more affected by drought. in remote areas of Narok poses capital. challenges to the locals. 24 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Chicken Provision of On-Farm Harvesting( ) ProductLocal Inputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Little sourcing of chicks due to Increased necessity of cleaning, Poor distribution of chicken products Farmers reduce market prices to impassable roads and extreme cold; leading to tedious labor; low supply of due to impassable roads; reduced minimize losses due to product fewer working hours due to heavy rains feed due to increased rainfall leads to slaughtering hours due to bad weather spoilage; reduced interaction between affects production of chicken feeds; reduced feeding, which lowers conditions; damage to packaging farmers and buyers due to bad feed and material delivery is difficult production; increased necessity of materials like egg trays. weather; reduced sales due to poor due to impassable earth roads; chicken vaccination and treatment due to road conditions and bad weather. housing wood decays. increased infections. Extreme Rainfall Consequences Magnitude of Severe Major-Severe Minor-Severe Minor-Severe Impact Hatching their own chicks or sourcing Constructing poultry houses properly, Using local transport systems like Farmers are producing manageable Farmers’ Current from neighbors; using available poultry using wire mash that separates donkeys, motorbikes, and human products so as to reduce the rate of feeds like left overs, vegetables, and chicken droppings from the poultry; beings; using timber-improvised saw spoilage; farmers are forming groups Coping Strategies grains; using donkey carts to transport improvising feeding troughs to do dust; selling live chicken and converting which increase links with buyers; chicken and products to market; using in-house feeding; lighting jikos for it into the product they desire; using farmers supply what they can locally-available materials. warmth and hatching; using heater buckets and cartons hays to carry eggs. manage to carry; farmers sell to bulbs and steamed water. neighboring markets. Improving infrastructure; for example, Buying tanks for water harvesting and Improving infrastructure like roads Looking for readymade markets to constructing all-weather roads; buying storage; drilling boreholes; improving and electricity; purchasing sell produce; forming cooperatives Potential surplus chicken feed and storing for poultry houses by raising them high and four-wheel drive; forming groups; to collect and sell products from Adaption Options future use; constructing good poultry collecting droppings on a daily basis; farmers built a chicken slaughter farmers; forming SACCOs to avoid houses during the dry season. including chicken in-house feeding house in one center by forming a fluctuation and uncontrolled prices; areas in poultry houses; buying chicken cooperative; using synthetic egg improving feeder roads and brooders; vaccinating early against trays to transport eggs; forming pathways so as to reach market new castle, coccidiosis, etc. egg cooperative societies for easy easily; online advertisements and service and accessibility. sales. Farmers will be affected by poor roads in Increased vulnerability to chicken Impassable roads lead to poor Reduced prices, set in order to dispose Underlying Factors rainy seasons; chicks are exposed to bad infections and pests increases the distribution of farm products; due to of products, reduce farmers’ profits; bad weather and can die; when the supply of necessity and cost of vaccinations; damaged packaging materials, the weather reduces buyer-farmer feed is low, the price rises. during the rainy season, the predator farmer incurs losses; losses incurred interaction and diminishes market. population increases. in chicken slaughtering as well. Chicks are few and expensive due to Due to water scarcity, cleaning occurs Ease of transportation, as most roads Low supply of chicken, eggs, and unavailability of feeds; feeds become less frequently; scarce, expensive, and are earth; low costs of transportation; by-products; increased demand and expensive; increased prices for poor-quality feeds reduce feeding the rate of chicken-slaughtering prices; fewer links between farmers construction materials like timber. frequencies reduces; eggs spoil. and buyers, due to a reduction in Drought chicken production caused by lack of feed. Consequences Magnitude of Moderate-Severe Minor-Severe Minor- Major Moderate-Major Impact Adapting from local chicken to improve Constructing poultry houses properly, County government is improving the Sourcing from neighboring farms and breeds; hatching their own eggs at the using wire mesh to separate chicken roads’ condition, which make advertising through sign posts; Farmers’ Current household level rather than purchasing droppings; feeding the chicken with transportation easier for farmers; outsourcing eggs from farm gates, so as Coping Strategies the chicks; using advisory services from available poultry feeds and freeing sourcing more chickens from nearby to ensure there is a continued supply to the ASDSP; practicing free-range poultry them to feed themselves; restricting farm gates, so as to increase product traders. rearing; giving chicken available feeds; poultry’s movements to avoid them supply; in order to reduce egg spoilage, using alternative, less expensive mingling with infected chicken. the farmer should look for a ready construction materials that are less, like market. iron sheets and wire mesh; consulting extension services. Using incubators; purchasing chicken Practicing water harvesting during the KERA participants import infrastructure; Sourcing markets online through social Potential feeds during the harvesting season rainy season; farmers should stock feed county government renovating feeder media platforms; diversifying local Adaption Options and storing for future use in dry when there is surplus, for future use; roads; farmers forming groups for chicken with improved kienyeji, which season improving farm structures to limit education on poultry rearing; buying lays eggs that never hatch; chickens’ movements. durable trays to store eggs; ventilating interbreeding to get F1 and F2 breeds. egg-storage areas; forming SACCOs to help build storage facilities and reduce egg spoilage. People in drought-prone areas will be The farmer without access to any source Farmers are affected by poor roads; The Maasai community do not value Underlying Factors more affected; these areas include of water may experience cleaning limited innovation and technological chicken as source of food; reduced Mosiror, Suswa, Ntulele in Narok East, problems; high feed prices; no water development, especially in egg and chicken product leads to reduced and Ongata Enterit in Narok South; high availability in some remote places. product storage; the COVID-19 income; during the COVID-19 pandemic prices for construction materials affect pandemic reduced the accessibility of there was reduction of exercise duty poor farmers and people who live in markets. (TAX/VAT), and reduced demand. remote areas; impassable roads affect input supply. Narok County 25 Dairy (Cow) Provision of On-Farm Harvesting ProductInputs Production Storage and Marketing Processing Destruction of pasture fields affects seed Destruction of infrastructure like stores, Increased post-harvest losses due to The destruction of advertising billboards; sourcing; roads and bridges are roads, and pasture fields; increased cost delayed milk delivery; contamination of reduced market access due to poor destroyed; the animals’ heat periods are of the raw materials of feed formulation; clean water sources; poor transportation roads; low sales; milk prices drop for affected; reduced accessibility to service reduced access to veterinary services, and handling leads to delayed milk farmers, due to poor market access; providers; increased cost of services. due to destruction of infrastructure like delivery and an increase post-harvest prices increase for consumers due to roads, bridges; destruction of cattle dips, losses; poor feed storage leads to mold high cost of production; inability to meet Flash Floods which affects strategic deworming which compromises feed quality; contract agreements, high post-harvest regimes; outbreak of respiratory diseases destruction of feed storage infrastructure. losses Consequences such as pneumonia, CBPP, and lungworm infestations. Magnitude of Moderate-Severe Moderate-Major Moderate-Major Moderate Impact Timely planting; developing early flooding Training in feed formulation; taking Constructing of safe/flood free milking Strengthening cooperatives to warning systems; enhancing drainage technical advice from relevant institutions; pens/houses; constructing passable enhance product promotion; training in Farmers’ Current systems on pasture fields; constructing using innovation plans and A.I services roads with proper drainage systems to promotion and value addition for milk Coping Strategies farm ponds to store excess water; from extension officers; learning about allow ease in transportation; training and its products; implementing innovating of technologies to ensure that A.I services and vaccines; quarantining farmers in hygienic milk handling; regulations on branding and pricing A.I services are not hampered by livestock. implementing cooler use; establishing milk and its products; forming floods/weather changes; formulating policy; milk collection centers; educating farmers laws and policies to protect milk brands involvement of stakeholders in veterinary on TMR; securing grants for feed and prices; conducting research and services. storage facilities. advertisement through social media. Constructing dykes and other drainage Bulk sourcing of raw feed formulation Enhancing surveillance to ensure that Creating better policies and systems on lowlands; enhancing materials for cheaper feed production; milk-handling regulations are fully regulations to access more lucrative Potential agroforestry by use of fodder trees, soil, training farmers on feed formulation; implemented; building more processing markets; creating more attractive Adaption Options and water construction measures along producing quality feeds; constructing plants and coolers to reduce time platforms for milk-product promotion; slopes; providing A.I equipment at the modern animal feed stores; training more involved in milk handling; train farmers to investing in branding equipment; village level for easy access; training farmers on heat detection methods; using improve hygienic standards at farm level; creating better regulations and policies farmers in A.I techniques, subdivided A.I improved, flood-resistant breeds; diversifying dairy products by acquiring to protect milk brands from services, and information dissemination; intensifying production systems of dairy processing machinery.; writing proposals counterfeits; putting measures in place intensify cooperatives. cattle; enforcing disease control and for funds and international grants; to localize branding; cooperatives management; using more effective educating farmers on locally available introducing incentives to farmers; vaccines; introducing cold drains on the materials for simple storage facility encouraging saving culture in farmers wards level; creating links with the construction; giving grants to farmers to through cooperatives; providing access stakeholders like kevevapi, importers, and construct storage facilities; training to credit; training farmers on lobbying drug and vaccine sellers. farmers on feed preparation and storage. for resources. Poor roads and other infrastructure make Poor farmers-to-extension staff ratio, which Poor drainage and infrastructure Poor awareness mechanism leads to Underlying Factors farm inputs inaccessible to farmers in hinders information dissemination to hampers efficient transport to ineffective interventions; poor access leads remote areas; poor policy implementation; farmers in rural areas; poor access to processors and marketers; lack of to exploitation of farmers; limited farmer- poor systems for emergency interventions; information on rain patterns hinder farmers storage facilities like hay barns, buyer links; cartels and brokers taking over poor information dissemination systems that in making key decisions; poor drainage strategic feed stores, milk coolers; lack for farmers and buyers; weak or absent do not allow farmers in remote areas to and water storage structures lead to flash of processing plants; little cooperative societies. access information in real time. floods that affect low-lying agricultural conservation/agroforestry practice; areas; poor crop cover leads to land enhanced soil and water conservation degradation. structures and measures. Lack of moisture for feed growth, Leads to low supply of raw materials for Reduced hygiene due to limited clean Leads to low supply of milk, price hiking, germination, and development; threats to feed formulation and pasture water; leads to low volumes of milk, higher poor-quality milk, youth unemployment; the animals’ health; increasing calving development; leads to delayed heats, processing costs, job loss, low supply of also leads to fake and diluted milk in the intervals; low income farmers do not poor conception rate and a lack of feeds for storage, and underutilization of market, high branding and production have money to seek veterinary services, resources for insemination services; feed storage facilities; animals can costs; leads to low production, which Drought leading to poor production. leads to weak animals, an outbreak of experience feed poisoning, as less feed is affects contracts. Consequences tick borne diseases, and expensive available.services. Magnitude of Moderate-Severe Moderate-Severe Major-Severe Moderate-Major Impact Providing pasture seed, training, and Timely planting of pasture; training Training on hygienic handling of milk, from Training farmers on proper product Farmers’ Current information on climate and weather farmers in feed formulation and pasture milking sheds to the consumer; using marketing options; certifying and changes; harvesting and storing animal development; holistic on-range Coping Strategies clear jerricans in milk handling and registering brands; training farmers on feed for dry days; providing A.I and management and rehabilitation; efficient transporting; using coolers to preserve branding and pricing analysis and market veterinary services and training . utilization of feed; training farmers in heat and store milk in bulk; engaging in trends; developing farmer-buyer links detection; linking farmers to machines; small-scale value addition; engaging in through stakeholders; forming training farmers in TMR (total mix ration) major milk processing out of the county; cooperatives for better links; comparing to for making feed; educating farmers on constructing hay and barns; using other traders and processors. proper animal husbandry; forming policy silage-making technology; creating on subsidized inputs; engaging and strategic feed reserves at the cooperative involving stakeholders. level. Potential Developing research extension linkages for Growing of protein-rich feeds to Promoting the use of aluminum milk Enhancing production across regional Adaption Options more resilient varieties, establishing pasture supplement grass; growing drought-resist- containers and maxi-cans from the farm markets; producing daily premium and fodder under irrigation; destocking ant varieties of pasture; diversifying level to processors; imposing milk-handling products; strengthening cooperatives to livestock; intensifying pasture systems; sources of animal feed; training farmers and safety measures; providing subsidized enhance product promotion; trainings monitoring and controlling disease and on heat detection; training AI technicians modern milk-handling equipment, avail milk farmers in marketing and pricing; pests; upscaling and subsidizing A.I services to reach more farmers; constructing and testing reagents, and kits at the farm level; enforcing dairy development policy; to reach all; providing effective veterinary rehabilitating cattle dips; providing more upscaling strategic feed stores; strengthening cooperatives to enhance services; educating farmers on emerging effective acaricides; controlling agrovet mechanizing feed storage to enhance links; comparing to new markets; diseases. products to avoid counterfeits. efficiency; training farmers on TMR; enforcing a school feeding program using establishing feeding structures to minimize locally sourced milk. losses. Lack of ability to acquire and use modern Lack of adequate information on good No food/feed reserves for the dry Lack of supportive measures to sustain Underlying Factors technology, making women and youth animal husbandry; this affects mostly seasons; a shortage of processing plants productivity; lack of policies to protect more vulnerable; lack of water women and youth, who are the most to combat post-harvest losses; lack of farmers and processors from the unfair storage/harvesting structures; this affects involved in the on-farm production; culture insurance services to help farmers with competition of cheap milk imports and mainly women and youth, who are tasked promotes the use of bulls instead of A.I harvest losses. counterfeit milk products. with watering animals and thus spend services; locals lack the financial capacity more time sourcing water; policies in to produce A.I, access to veterinary place that do not support access to services, and construct water storage subsidized farm inputs like A.I services. facilities. Figure 12: Climate Change Adaption Strategies across Selected Value Chains in Narok County 26 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series 5. Policies and strategies on Climate Change Several policies have been developed and implemented in Narok County in response to climate change (Table 1). Table 1: National policies and strategies targeting climate change adaptation and mitigation Policy Year Policy Objective(s) Interventions Challenges Kenya Climate 2017-2026 Fortifying agricultural Introducing and promoting livestock Lack of organization Smart Agriculture systems against breeds that can withstand extreme Strategy climate change weather conditions Promoting early-maturing and drought-resistant crop varieties Inadequate staffing and National Climate 2018-2022 Increasing forest cover Protecting the Mau Forest funding Change Action Reducing deforestation Plan National Climate 2016 Providing a framework Establishing a climate change office Finance Policy for funding climate- Addressing poor coordination in change response climate change-related policy efforts Poor policy implementation Climate Change 2016 Provides a framework The national government has had Act for funding climate- several meetings with the Narok change adaption County Government to implement this actions at the national act. and the county level. Establishment of a Climate Change Farmers are unaware of Office in the Department of policies Environment to spearhead climate change issues within the county. National Climate 2013 Promoting the Afforestation and reforestation efforts Chang Policy sustainable Raising awareness in the community Policies are not management of well-integrated into natural resources development activities National Livestock 2013 Creating employment, Creating public and private Contradictory policies, Policy improving livelihoods, partnerships due to limited stakeholder enhancing food Establishing the Kenya Animal consultation security, and Genetics Resource Centre, the contributing to Kenya Leather Development Kenya’s Gross Council, and the Kenya Tsetse and Domestic Production Trypanosomiasis Eradication Council through livestock farming Establishing medium-term and long- term emergency plans National Dairy 2013 Supporting and Conducting breeding activities Development developing the dairy Promoting pasture establishment and Policy value chain development Offering veterinary services Environmental 2015 Protect the Protect riverbeds from encroachment Management and environment Promotes the conservation of river Coordination Act and wetland soil Protect indigenous forests ASDSP 2013-2021 Enhance farm Promotion of dairy cattle, sheep, goat, productivity while and maize value chains conserving natural Focuses on enhancing commercial resources and economic opportunities for the county’s youth Agricultural (Farm 2009 Preserve and conserve Kenya Forest Service and Narok Forestry) Act the environment County have tried to protect the Mau Forest and other smaller forest areas from settlement and encroachment Narok County 27 Policy Year Policy Objective(s) Interventions Challenges Forest Act 2005 Establishment of the Advocates for sustainable tree Kenya Forest Service, harvesting which is a state Large-scale harvesting must be corporation mandated conducted under a harvesting plan to develop, manage, and conserve Kenya’s forests Agriculture, 2013 Attempts to Established the Agriculture, Fisheries Fisheries, and Food consolidate laws and Food Authority of Narok County Authority Act related to the Outlined the roles of the national and regulation and county governments in relation to promotion of agriculture agriculture Repealed the Agriculture Act, the Grass Fires Act, and the Suppression of Noxious Weeds Act. Fertilizer cost- To ensure that the To make fertilizer increasingly reduction strategy poor farmers can available to farmers in the whole access and benefit county from inputs To ensure fertilizer is well-priced The Narok County Government, through the Department of Agriculture, has also supported farmers by providing subsidized fertilizer More than 50,000 mt of fertilizer has been distributed, with more to come 6. Institutional capacity on Climate Change In Narok County, there are many institutions climate information from the Kenya Meteorological (government, private, non-government organizations, Department and release it to farmers in context with and community-based organizations) that work on other agricultural information. Research institutions issues related to climate change, agriculture, water, within the county are working on climate change and or food security. Most of these governmental entities variability. For example, the Kenya Forestry Research provide agricultural advisory services, extension, Institute and Maasai Mara University conduct research inputs, and support to Narok County’s farmers. For on natural resource management. They are also example, the staff from the Department of Agriculture involved in training and education activities. Here is support farmers through field visits, demonstrations, a sample of institutions that are currently supporting and inputs. They also decipher weather and agricultural activities in Narok (Table 2). 28 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Table 2: Institutions that are Currently Supporting Agriculture in Narok County Off-farm Services Institutions Interventions Challenges Department of Agriculture Providing crop extension and advisory services Agriculture Promoting crop development Research and extension Services Supporting farmers through field visits, Limited training in climate demonstrations, and inputs change-related issues Department of Water Drilling boreholes Constructing water pans Investing in water infrastructure Allocated resources are Livestock Department Provides livestock extension services inadequate Promoting different livestock value chains Fisheries Department Promoting and supporting fish value chain activities. Establishing fishponds Relevant expertise in various departments is inadequate Training farmers on and raising awareness about fish farming Department of Environment Protecting the environment and Narok County’s natural resources through proper policing Climate change is a relatively Energy Department Providing renewable energy options new issue, and has yet to be integrated into the county’s Department of Lands Distributing title deeds and governing land use developmental activities Kenya Forestry Service Protecting forest resources Promoting forest preservation and restoration Providing farmers with tree seedlings At the county level, there are Kenya Forestry Research Conducting research on natural resource no specific funds allocated to Institute management. climate-change adaptation Conducting training and education activities. efforts Water Resource Authority Regulating water resources National Environment Regulating and coordinating projects with Management Authority environmental impact Financial and human resources are inadequate Maasai Mara University Conducting research aimed at improving various value chains Creating tree-planting activities and awareness campaigns Poor coordination among Kenya Meteorological Sending climate-based advisories to different county departments and Climate Information Department (KMD) departments organizations Services and Agro Weather Advisories Department of Agriculture Analyzing weather and climate information from the KMD and releasing it to farmers Kenya Meteorological Issuing weather and climate advisories Department Early Warning Issuing warnings for disasters like floods and Systems and droughts Participatory National Drought Management Working to reduce the effects of droughts Scenario Planning Authority Providing early-warning drought-risk information to the public Department of Agriculture Distributing subsidized fertilizer and seeds Non-financial Subsidies Livestock Department Providing artificial insemination services Banks like Equity Bank Providing financial support to farmers Financial Services SACCOs and Mobile Banking Helping farmers save their money and access Services like Safaricom credit Cooperative societies Helping farmers to access markets Ensuring Market Services proper pricing, so that farmers are not exploited Narok County 29 7. Synthesis and Outlook Agriculture is the mainstay of Narok County. The dairy They provide training, education, and advisory services cow, sheep, local chicken, and maize value chains to farmers through field days, demonstrations, and involve large areas of the county and vulnerable extension work. They also educate farmers on adaptive populations. The value chains that do so are more varieties of crops and trees and preserve and manage resilient to climate change than the county’s other forests. However, most of these institutions lack value chains. human and financial capital. The county government must therefore invest further resources in these Some climate hazards pose a threat to Narok County’s institutions. The county government must also train agriculture. These hazards are drought, extreme the staffs of these institutions to promote better policy rainfall, and flash floods. The people of Narok County implementation. have adopted early maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties, tolerant breeds of livestock, and the Gaps in policy and institutional limitations hinder practice of rainwater harvesting to deal with these Narok County’s response to climate change. The climate hazards. However, some adaption strategies government’s existing policies conflict and contradict are expensive and labor-intensive. For example, farmers each other. There is no interdepartmental consultation. need the government’s help and financial support to Mandates are vague and often lead to confusion. build irrigation infrastructure. Narok County is in dire Therefore, law and policy development must begin need of financial support. The county also needs to to involve all parties including farmers. The county ensure that extension is given to farmers. In doing so, government must allocate more resources to deal with the county must consider the needs of the poor, the climate change. old, the disabled, and the illiterate. Going forward, the county government and its partners To promote climate change adaptation within the must seek to improve agricultural production and agriculture sector, the county government must extension, manage post-production losses, and provide establish an appropriate framework that can effectively inputs to vulnerable farmers. The county should also address social, economic, and environmental needs. focus on controlling diseases and pests, developing The economic development of the agriculture sector feeds and pasture, conserving and developing should be streamlined and separate the efficient from livestock, and supporting poultry development. This the unsustainable. This framework must incorporate could include building slaughterhouses, investing in institutions, governments, and markets. 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Kenya Population and Housing and sub-location [Edited Textbook] . Nairobi, Nanyuki, Census Volume III: Distribution of Population by Age, Bern: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Centre for Sex and Administrative Units. Kenya National Bureau Training and Integrated Research in ASAL Development, of Statistics, Nairobi, Kenya. Available online at https:// Centre for Development and Environment bit.ly/34gcA60 9. Acknowledgements This study is the product of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives of Kenya (MoALFC), with assistance from the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the Consultative Group on International Research (CGIAR) Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), as part of the National Agricultural and Rural Inclusive Growth Project (NARIGP), supported by the World Bank (WB). The document has been developed under the coordination of Evan Girvetz (Alliance of Bioversity-CIAT) and John Kimani (National Project Coordinator, NARIGP), under the technical leadership of Stephanie Jaquet and Caroline Mwongera with contributions from (in alphabetical order): Harold A.E. Achicanoy, Mildred Ada, Alejandra Esquivel, Aniruddha Ghosh, Dorcas Jalang’o, Stella Kasura, Ivy Kinyua, Victor Mugo, Jessica Mukiri, Wilson Nguru, Fridah Nyakundi, Ruth Odhiambo, Julian Ramirez-Villegas Infographics, layout and design: Sherry Adisa (independent consultant) Editors: Annalese Duprey, Courtney Jallo, Vincent Johnson, Kathryn Kandra, Megan Mayzelle Stephanie Pentz We acknowledge the contribution of the NARIGP team: Mary Maingi, Judy Amadiva, Meriki Joseph, and the county government of Narok. We also express gratitude to the following institutions in for providing information to this study: Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperatives (MoALFC), Water Department, National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA), National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), Water Resource Authority (WRA), Kenya Forestry Service (KFS), Environment Department, Agricultural Sector Development Support Programme (ASDSP), Engare Gusur Farmers Group, Ilaramatak Ilmashariani Farmers Group, Nashipae Ilmashariani Farmers Group, Osotua Poultry Farmers Group and Lanyuak Famers Cooperative Society. This document should be cited as: MoALFC. 2021. Climate Risk Profile for Narok County. Kenya County Climate Risk Profile Series. The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives (MoALFC), Nairobi, Kenya. Narok County 31 10. Annexes 10.1 Glossary Climate change: A change in the state of the climate that Wasted: weak or emaciated because of poor nutrition. can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that Stunted growth: when the “height for age” value is less persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. than two standard deviations of the WHO Child Growth Climate change may be due to natural internal processes Standards median. Poor growth and development in children or external forces such as modulations of the solar cycles, that experience poor nutrition, inadequate psychosocial volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in stimulation, and repeated infection. the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2018). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): Four Climate risk: The potential for consequences where greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectories something of value is at stake and where the outcome is adopted by the IPCC for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, are named represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or 2100 (of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2, respectively). trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard (IPCC, 2018). Green House Gases: Atmospheric gases responsible for causing global warming and climate change. The major GHGs Climate hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or are carbon dioxide (CO ), methane (CH ), and nitrous oxide 2 4 human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact (N O). Less prevalent but very powerful greenhouse gases 2 that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as are hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources (IPCC,2018). Mixed farming: a farming system where there is growing of crops as well as rearing of livestock. Climate variability: Variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of Pastoralism: the rearing of animals which also involves extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales moving around with their herds in search of pasture and water. beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC, 2018). Ranching: the rearing and breeding of cattle for business Absolute poverty: a lack of basic human needs, mainly food, purposes on a ranch. shelter, clothing, water, education, and health care. Marginal mixed farming: a farming system where there is Food Poverty: Not having the means to acquire enough growing of crops as well as rearing of livestock on marginal food to live a normal healthy life. When a population cannot (arid, saline, acidic) areas. consistently afford the minimum amount of recommended Agro-pastoralism: a system that is highly dependent on nutritional food, it suffers from food poverty. livestock and movement in search of pasture and water, and where possible is combined with crop cultivation. 32 Kenya County Climate Risks Profiles Series Prepared by