CIAT / MusaNet 

Shaping the Future of Cassava Production in
Southeast Asia:  Challenges, Trends, and
Strategic Priorities to 2050 

This brief provides a comprehensive overview of cassava
production and yield trends across key countries in
Southeast Asia. Drawing on expert insights gathered in
2024, it examines agronomic, environmental, and policy
factors affecting future yield projections. 

It identifies emerging challenges and opportunities in the
cassava sector to inform evidence-based policymaking,
guide strategic investments, and support stakeholders
in enhancing regional industrial agriculture and
sustainable growth. 

The increasing demand for industrial starch presents a
promising outlook, but significant constraints challenge
future production. Among them, pests and diseases have
been identified as a major yield-threatening factor. ​​In
some places, disorganized policy environments and
competition for land resources further compound the
challenges.   

Securing the future of Southeast Asia’s cassava sector
out to 2050 will require strategic investments targeting
the development of disease-resistant cultivars, large
scale production and availability of clean-planting
material, cross-border monitoring of the flow of planting
materials, improved field-data collection systems, and
cohesive national policies that support farmers in
adopting resistant cultivars, higher-quality inputs, and
more resilient management practices. 

2014CIAT/GeorginaSmith

Executive summary
 
Cassava is a critical industrial crop in Southeast Asia,
primarily grown for starch and in direct competition with
maize. Although Southeast Asia is the world’s biggest
cassava exporter globally, the cassava sector in major
producing countries in the region varies significantly in
both current conditions and future prospects.  

Thailand's regional leadership and long history of
cassava breeding success have produced widely
adopted, high performing cultivars, such that future
yield improvements will likely be more modest. National
average yields in Cambodia and Indonesia have
moderate growth potential, while Vietnam displays a
sharp productivity divide between its northern and
southern regions which will likely persist. Driven by its
profitability, the expansion of cassava into less fertile
areas in Laos may reduce national average yields.  



Figure 1. Distribution of cassava production
and harvested area across Southeast Asia
Note: Country shading represents cassava
production volume (tons), with darker blue
indicating higher output. Bubble size reflects the
harvested area (hectares).  

Why it matters
Cassava plays a significant role in the agricultural economies of Southeast Asia, cultivated throughout the region (Figure 1).
Cultivated primarily as an industrial cash crop for starch production, it is a major component of regional value chains and
competes directly with other key commodities like maize. Over the past several decades, cassava production in Southeast
Asia has increased to account for >95% of internationally traded cassava products, becoming an important contributor to
both smallholder incomes and national economies.  

Of the ~5M hectares of cassava cultivated in East Asia, more than 99% remain in the hands of smallholder farmers,
leading to significant impacts of cassava cultivation on rural poverty. The performance of the cassava sector directly also
impacts industrial supply chains, farmer incomes, and land-use patterns throughout the region; a complex picture that
links farm productivity and labor, processing and food supply, global carbohydrate markets, and sustainable land
management. 

Country-specific prospects for cassava production
An expert consultation exercise was conducted by the Alliance of Bioversity-CIAT in 2024 to understand past yield trends and
elicit the experts’ opinion on the likely future of cassava production across key producing countries in Southeast Asia. A total
of 5 experts were consulted over two meetings to review historical data and critique modeled projections out to 2050,
following a specific protocol developed for the exercise ​(Petsakos, 2024)​. 

The consultation underscored the region’s diverse production conditions, as reflected in Figure 2, and identified numerous
challenges and opportunities faced by the key producing countries that will shape the sector through 2050. 

Figure 2. Cassava historical yield growth in
Southeast Asia and yield variability 
Note: The middle line represents the weighted
average yield across producing countries, while
the surrounding band represents the weighted
standard deviation for yields in each year.  

2



Country Current situation Key Challenges
 Sector Outlook & Yield Growth

Potential

Projected
Yield

(2050)

Thailand National yield around 22
t/ha; FAO data reliable.  
Dominant cultivar Ku-50
widely adopted; nearing
adoption ceiling.  
Sector shifting emphasis
from yield to starch quality. 

Cultivar adoption ceiling and
limited genetic gains.  
Competition with maize for land
and inputs.  
 Pest and disease pressures
increasing. 

Low–Moderate: 
Modest yield growth expected.  
Gains depend on access to quality
planting material, irrigation, and
inputs.  
Yields may plateau despite
incremental improvements. 

≈ 24-27
t/ha 

Cambodia Official yield data unreliable;
trade-based estimates
distort area.  
Soils less fertile than in
Thailand.  

Poor data quality hampers
research and investment.  
Low soil fertility and weak input
use.  
Threat from pests and diseases
becoming increasingly
problematic.
Limited extension and pest
management capacity. 

Moderate:
Growth possible if data and
agronomy improve.  
Yields unlikely to surpass
Thailand’s.

≈ 25 t/ha 

Indonesia Official yields likely
overstated; large low-yield
food segment (<15 t/ha).  
Highly variable production
conditions across islands.  
Policy and institutional
fragmentation. 

Threat from pests and diseases
(especially Cassava Mosaic
Disease). 
Lack of cassava gene bank and
breeding coordination. 
Weak national policy coherence. 

Moderate (high uncertainty):
Gains limited without systemic
reform.  
With investment and P&D
management, yields could grow.  
Climate variability adds major
uncertainty. 

  

≈ 25 t/ha
(upper
bound) 

3

Table 1.Cassava production outlook in key SE Asian countries (to 2050))



Country Current situation Key Challenges
 Sector Outlook & Yield Growth

Potential

Projected
Yield

(2050)

Vietnam Strong north–south divide:
35–40 t/ha south vs. <20
t/ha north.  
Most production
concentrated in the south. 

Regional productivity imbalance. 
Pest and disease pressure,
especially in the north. 
Cultivation on steep slopes raises
risk of erosion and land
degradation in uplands.
Increasing salinization threat from
sea-level rise in the Tay Ninh
production zone.

Moderate: 
Gradual gains expected nationally. 
High-performing south offsets
northern stagnation. 
Salinization could constrain long-
term growth of irrigated yields in
Tay Ninh.

≈ 25 t/ha
(25–30
south; 15–
20 north)

Laos Current yields ~30 t/ha (lots
of uncertainty but generally
high yields on areas of
recent forest conversion). 
Input-free, extensive
production systems. 
Cassava has already been
Laos’ #1 export crop for
several years and area
increases have been
significant.

Soil nutrient mining and fertility
decline. 
Cassava Mosaic Disease threat
emerging in major zones. 
No domestic breeding program;
varietal renewal delayed.

Low-Moderate (but fragile): 
Production driven by rapid growth
of in-country processing capacity.
Long-term sustainability at risk
without fertility management. 
Yield growth is expected in fertile
areas but national average yields
may decline as cultivation
expands into less fertile areas.

≈ 25 t/ha

2015CIAT/GeorginaSmith
4



Policy Implications

Economic Stability: As a key raw material for the
starch industry, declining cassava yields could
disrupt industrial supply chains, affecting regional
economic stability and competitiveness.

Livelihood Concerns: In areas where cassava is a
primary cash crop, failure to address yield-limiting
factors could negatively impact the incomes and
livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers.

Policy and Investment Risk: The widespread
unreliability of official agricultural data creates
significant risks for policymakers and donors, as
decisions are being based on flawed information
without good understanding of uncertainties. This
undermines efforts to target interventions
effectively.

Research Priorities: The challenges highlight an
urgent need for research focused on developing
pest- and disease-resistant cultivars, seed system
innovations to make new varieties and clean seed
widely available, and agronomic solutions tailored to
different production systems (e.g., high-yield
industrial vs. low-input food-grade).

Environmental sustainability: Less productive
conditions and topsoil erosion in areas where
cassava is planted on inappropriate terrain (e.g.
steep slopes in the north). Salinization in southern
Vietnam due to sea level rise could pose a threat to
irrigated production in Tay Ninh.

5

Cross-cutting regional challenges 

Pest and Disease Pressure: Current threats like Cassava
Mosaic Disease (CMD), and Witches’ Broom Disease, and
the potential incursion of other devastating diseases,
like Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD) (Tomlinson,
Bailey, Alicai, Seal, & Foster, 2018), raise alarms
throughout the region. CMD was first reported in the
region in 2015 via infected cuttings, and has since spread
throughout much of Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and
Thailand (Minato, et al., 2019; Saokham, et al., 2021;
Siriwan, et al., 2020). Additionally, Witches’ Broom—and
potentially CBSD—are now re-emerging as major threat
that could suppress or reverse productivity gains if not
addressed (Leiva, et al., 2023; Pardo, et al., 2023). One
expert expressed pessimism about reducing this
pressure in Thailand, suggesting high-end yield
projections may be unattainable.

Data Reliability: A significant challenge highlighted by
experts is the poor availability and quality of official
statistics, both at national, but especially subnational
levels. Historical yield data from FAOSTAT for countries
like Cambodia and Indonesia were considered unreliable
or incorrect by the consulted experts, who report that
figures are often miscalculated from incomplete trade
data without field validation. Better monitoring of
cassava production and trade data in the region would
facilitate credible future scenario projections and hence
effective policy design.

Policy and Governance: Throughout much of the region,
the cassava sector has so far developed in a weak
institutional context and without policy support. In
Indonesia, a "disorganized policy environment" was cited
as a major risk factor. In Vietnam, experts noted that
government five-year plans are effective in mobilizing
resources towards policy targets; but it is not always
clear how successful these efforts are in achieving the
targets.

Resource and Market Competition: Cassava is often
treated as a low-input crop throughout the region, with
little use of soil amendments, fertilizers, or conservation
technologies, especially in resource-constrained rural
communities. In Thailand and Vietnam, it competes
directly with maize and other upland crops for land and
resources. In Indonesia, the sector is split between a
high-productivity industrial market and a low-yield food
market. These dynamics influence farmer decisions and
overall productivity growth.



6

2014CIAT/GeorginaSmith

Recommendations & action points

Strengthen Pest and Disease Management:
Accelerate research, development, and distribution of
disease-resistant cassava cultivars adapted to
Southeast Asian market conditions. Invest in capacity
building of phytosanitary officers to strengthen early
detection systems in situ and in coordinated regional
strategies to manage and contain outbreaks, including
coordination of planting material flow monitoring
activities across national borders.

Improve Data Collection and Monitoring: Regional
cooperation is needed to link national and regional
investments in robust agricultural statistical systems to
generate more reliable data on area, production, and
yield. This should ideally include both standard ground
and trade-based monitoring and digital/remote sensing
approaches. This is a foundational step for sound
policymaking.

Promote Cohesive National Policies:
Governments should develop clear, stable, and
supportive policies for the cassava sector that
address issues like access to quality inputs,
extension services, and market linkages for both
industrial and food segments.

Enhance Farmer Capacity and Access to
Technology: Focus on technology transfer and
knowledge-sharing platforms to help farmers,
particularly smallholders, adopt improved
cultivars and practices for disease
management, soil health, and climate resilience.

2015CIAT/GeorginaSmith



References

Leiva, A. M., Pardo, J. M., Arinaitwe, W., Newby, J.,
Vongphachanh, P., Chittarath, K., . . . & Cuéllar, W. J. (2023).
Ceratobasidium sp. is associated with cassava witches’
broom disease, a re-emerging threat to cassava cultivation
in Southeast Asia. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 22500.

Minato, N., Sok, S., Chen, S., Delaquis, E., Phirun, I., Le, V., . . .
de Haan, S. (2019). Surveillance for Sri Lankan cassava
mosaic virus (SLCMV) in Cambodia and Vietnam one year
after its initial detection in a single plantation in 2015. PLoS
One, 14(2), e0212780.

Pardo, J. M., Chittarath, K., Vongphachanh, P., Le, T. H.,
Oeurn, S., Arinaitwe, W., . . . & Cuéllar, W. J. (2023). Cassava
witches’ broom disease in Southeast Asia: A review of its
distribution and associated symptoms. Plants, 12(11), 2217.

Petsakos, A. A. (2024). Toolkit for exploring yield growth to
2050: Updating exogenous yield growth parameters in
IMPACT.

Saokham, K., Hemniam, N., Roekwan, S., Hunsawattanakul,
S., Thawinampan, J., & Siriwan, W. (2021). Survey and
molecular detection of Sri Lankan cassava mosaic virus in
Thailand. PLoS One, 16(10), e0252846.

Siriwan, W., Jimenez, J., Hemniam, N., Saokham, K., Lopez-
Alvarez, D., Leiva, A. M., . . . Cuellar, W. J. (2020). Surveillance
and diagnostics of the emergent Sri Lankan cassava mosaic
virus (Fam. Geminiviridae) in Southeast Asia. Virus Res.,
285:197959.

Tomlinson, K. R., Bailey, A. M., Alicai, T., Seal, S., & Foster, G.
D. (2018). Cassava brown streak disease: historical timeline,
current knowledge and future prospects. Molecular plant
pathology, 19(5), 1282-1294.

Correct citation

Schiek, B., Andrade, R., Delaquis, E., Newby, J., Cuellar, W., Petsakos,
A. and Gotor, E. (2025). Shaping the Future of Cassava Production in
Southeast Asia: Challenges, Trends, and Strategic Priorities to 2050.
Foresight Policy Briefs Series.

Authors

Benjamin Schiek, Robert Andrade, Erik Delaquis, Jonathan Newby,
Wilmer Cuellar, Athanasios Petsakos, Elisabetta Gotor.

Aknowledgements

We would like to thank all cassava experts consulted for their input
which contributed to generating this brief. We would also like to thank
Maria Del Mar Esponda for her support in generating the map in Figure 1,
and Ilaria Urbani for her careful editing of the template and the content
material, and for her supervision of the production process.

2014CIAT/GeorginaSmith