1 Developing a Regional Cooperation Strategy for Scaling Up Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia Aparna Sawhney, Abdelkarim Sma, Mamata Pradhan, Abul Kamar, Devesh Roy WORKING PAPER JULY 2025 2 __________________________________________________________________________ CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.1. International Discourse on the Interface of Agriculture with Climate Change ..................... 5 1.2. The Need to Transition to Climate-Smart Agriculture: Broad Contours of Transitioning ... 8 2. MULTILATERAL CLIMATE COMMITMENTS IN AGRICULTURE AND DOMESTIC POLICY REGIMES .................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1. Bangladesh .................................................................................................................................. 12 2.1.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement.................................. 13 2.1.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in Bangladesh ................................................................. 16 2.2. Bhutan ........................................................................................................................................... 21 2.2.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement.................................. 22 2.2.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in Bhutan ........................................................................ 23 2.3. India ............................................................................................................................................... 27 2.3.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement.................................. 28 2.3.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in India ........................................................................... 30 2.4. Nepal ............................................................................................................................................. 34 2.4.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement.................................. 35 2.4.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in Nepal .......................................................................... 36 2.5. Pakistan ........................................................................................................................................ 39 2.5.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement.................................. 40 2.5.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in Pakistan ...................................................................... 42 2.6. Sri Lanka ....................................................................................................................................... 44 2.6.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement.................................. 44 2.6.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in Sri Lanka .................................................................... 46 2.7. Comparing the CSA Technologies in the NDCs and NAPs of the Six South Asian Countries ................................................................................................................................................... 49 3. TRADE POLICY REGIMES FOR CSA TECHNOLOGIES ........................................................... 52 3.1 The Six Countries in the Multilateral Trading System and Graduation Effects .................. 54 3.2 Preferential Trade Regimes within the Six South Asian Countries: Regional and Bilateral Agreements ............................................................................................................................................... 57 3.3 Environmental Provisions in Free and Preferential Trade Agreements of the Six South Asian Countries ........................................................................................................................................ 58 3.4 Import Barriers in CSA Technology-Associated Commodities ............................................. 61 3.4.1. Multiplicity of Trade Agreements among the Countries and Effective Import Tariffs .............. 61 3 3.4.2. Non-tariff Measures in Agricultural Imports ............................................................................ 66 3.4.3. India’s Bilateral Trade in CSA Technology-Associated Goods with Regional Partners .......... 70 4. COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF REGULATORY REGIMES ACROSS SIX SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES ............................................................................................................................................... 73 4.4. Seed Certification ........................................................................................................................ 73 4.5. Trade Regimes in Agricultural Equipment: Incidence of Customs Duties and Other Cesses/Taxes ........................................................................................................................................... 79 4.6. Food Safety and Quality Regulatory Regimes ....................................................................... 82 4.6.1. Bangladesh ................................................................................................................................ 83 4.6.2. Bhutan........................................................................................................................................ 84 4.6.3. India ........................................................................................................................................... 85 4.6.4. Nepal.......................................................................................................................................... 86 4.6.5. Pakistan ..................................................................................................................................... 87 4.6.6. Sri Lanka ................................................................................................................................... 88 4.7. Comparative Assessment of the Regulatory Regimes .......................................................... 89 5. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................... 91 5.1 Regional Cooperation Strategy to Scale Up CSA among SAARC Countries.................... 91 5.2 Strategy to Scale Up CSA.......................................................................................................... 92 ABOUT THE AUTHORS ............................................................................................................................ 94 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................................... 94 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................ 94 ______________________________________________________________________ TABLES Table 1. Economic significance of the agriculture sector in the six South Asian countries, 2022 6 Table 2. Agricultural non-carbon-dioxide GHG emissions and freshwater withdrawals in the six South Asian countries, 2020 ...................................................................................................... 7 Table 3. Components of hidden environmental and social costs of the agrifood system in the six South Asian countries (in millions 2020 PPP $) .......................................................................... 8 Table 4. Engagement in multilateral environmental agreements: Ratification/accession and net zero targets of the six South Asian countries ............................................................................10 Table 5. Agriculture sector commitments in Bangladesh’s updated NDC for 2030 ...................15 Table 6. CSA technologies in Bangladesh’s domestic policies ..................................................19 Table 7. Agriculture sector commitments in Bhutan’s second NDC for 2030 .............................23 Table 8. CSA technologies in Bhutan’s domestic policies .........................................................26 Table 9. Agriculture sector commitments in India’s NDC for 2030 ............................................29 4 Table 10. CSA technologies in India’s domestic policies ...........................................................33 Table 11. Agriculture sector commitments in Nepal’s second NDC for 2030 .............................35 Table 12. CSA technologies in Nepal’s domestic policy documents ..........................................38 Table 13. Agriculture sector commitments in Pakistan’s updated NDC, 2021 ...........................41 Table 14. CSA technologies in Pakistan’s domestic policy documents ......................................44 Table 15. Agriculture sector commitments in Sri Lanka’s updated NDC, 2021 ..........................45 Table 16. CSA technologies in Sri Lanka’s domestic policy documents ....................................49 Table 17. Comparison of CSA technologies in the NDCs and NAPs submitted to the UNFCCC by the six South Asian countries ....................................................................................................50 Table 18. Relative priority of CSA technologies in key domestic policy documents of the six South Asian countries .........................................................................................................................51 Table 19. MFN applied import tariffs in the six South Asian countries: Agricultural vs. nonagricultural goods, 2021–2022 ............................................................................................55 Table 20. Selected agri-trade and institutional indicators of the six countries, 2022 ..................56 Table 21. Main export and import partners in merchandise trade of the six South Asian countries, 2021–2022 ................................................................................................................................57 Table 22. Applied MFN customs duties and preferential duties on selected CSA goods in the six South Asian countries, 2023–2024............................................................................................63 Table 23. India’s export and import of CSA-associated goods with South Asian partners, 2021– 2024 ..........................................................................................................................................71 Table 24. Regulatory regimes for seed certification and import in the six South Asian countries .................................................................................................................................................77 Table 25. Total tax incidence on imported agricultural equipment in four Asian countries, 2023– 2024 ..........................................................................................................................................79 5 1. INTRODUCTION Climate change being a global environmental problem, a cooperative approach involving all the sovereign countries is required to achieve an optimal solution. Caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons, climate change has global effects that are independent of the geographical sources of these emissions. However, the adverse impacts of global warming and extreme weather events associated with climate change are not uniformly distributed, as vulnerable populations in less-developed countries bear the brunt of the damage. Some of these climate-vulnerable nations contribute less than 1 per cent of global GHG emissions, including Bhutan (0.0057%), Sri Lanka (0.072%), Nepal (0.105%), and Bangladesh (0.522%) in South Asia.1 Multilateral efforts for mitigation and adaptation to climate change began with the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to provide scientific information to determine the limit in temperature change for the planet.2 This was followed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992, a multilateral cooperation treaty that led to two climate mitigation treaties: the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 (enforced in 2005) and the Paris Agreement in 2015 (enforced in 2016). Recognizing climate change as a stock pollution problem, the Kyoto Protocol incorporated commitments from industrialized countries and transition economies within the European Union (EU) to abate GHG emissions, while allowing them the flexibility to earn mitigation credits through projects hosted in less-developed countries. The Paris Agreement, however, extended obligations to developing economies as well, while allowing all parties the flexibility to nationally determine their contributions to emission abatement. Both treaties uphold the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, based on the economic status of the member countries. 1.1. International Discourse on the Interface of Agriculture with Climate Change In a recent synthesis report, the IPCC noted that during the last five decades, climate change has contributed significantly to desertification and has exacerbated land degradation, particularly in low-lying coastal areas and river deltas (IPCC 2023). This has led to a global slowdown in the growth of agricultural productivity. At the same time, ocean warming and acidification have negatively impacted fisheries and shellfish aquaculture. The increased frequency of extreme weather events from climate change poses severe water risks to agriculture through intense drought, flooding, and erratic precipitation, increasing the 1 The largest emitter in the region is India (7.33 percent share), followed by Pakistan (1.01 percent). These country shares are based on annual emissions data for 2022, as reported in GHG Emissions of All World Countries (2023 Report, Office of the European Union. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023). 2 The IPCC was established by the United Nations Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023 6 vulnerabilities of less-developed countries, where the majority of the population depends on the agriculture sector for its livelihood. In effect, climate change has increased the challenges of combating existing inequality in the world and ensuring food security and sustainable development, especially among the most vulnerable. Amid the international dialogues, the IPCC projects that South Asia is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions (IPCC 2023). Already strained by the initial conditions of population pressure, poverty, high incidence of stunting and wasting among young children, and food insecurity, the food system has been further stressed by climate change. Among the South Asian nations, India has the largest economy and the largest agriculture sector (which includes agriculture, forestry, and fishing), followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan, as shown in Table 1. The development status of these six countries, as roughly indicated by the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, is lowest in Nepal and Pakistan, where agriculture, forestry, and fishing constitute more than a 20 percent of GDP in terms of value added. Table 1 shows that the land devoted to agriculture is especially high in Bangladesh, where 77 percent of available land is under agricultural use, followed by India with 60 percent, Pakistan with 47 percent, and Sri Lanka with 45 percent. It is also important to note that Bhutan has the highest share of land under forests (71 percent), followed by Nepal (41.6 percent) and Sri Lanka (34 percent). The agriculture sector is significant in providing employment to a large proportion of the labor force in each of these countries, particularly in Nepal (61 percent), Bhutan (44 percent), India (43 percent), Bangladesh (37 percent), and Pakistan (36 percent), and the proportion of employment is even higher when including people engaged in the overall agrifood sector. The high share of the labor force employed in agriculture in these countries underscores both the socioeconomic significance of the agriculture sector in South Asia and the extent of these societies’ vulnerability to climate change. Table 1. Economic significance of the agriculture sector in the six South Asian countries, 2022 Country GDP per capita (in constant 2015 US$) Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added in Agricultural employment share in total (female) Share of land under agriculture Share of land under forest million constant US$ % share of GDP Bangladesh 1,785 35,965 11.2% 36.86% (55%) 77.35% 14.47% Bhutan 2,992 343 15.8% 43.96% (54%) 13.45% 71.50% India 2,090 47,0378 16.7% 42.86% (59%) 60.05% 24.36% Nepal 1,083 7,890 21.1% 61.39% (75%) 28.75% 41.59% Pakistan 1,696 84,224 22.4% 36.43% (67%) 47.09% 4.78% 7 Sri Lanka 3,988 6,673 8.8% 26.41% (28%) 45.46% 34.11% Source: Compiled from the World Development Indicators database, World Bank. Note: GDP = gross domestic product. Agriculture value-added data are for 2022 for all countries except Bhutan, for which 2021 data are used. The share of agricultural employment as the share of total employment (and total female employment) pertains to 2022 for all countries. The share of total land area under agriculture and forests pertains to 2021 for all countries. All monetary values are in constant US dollars, with 2015 as the base year. Table 2 shows the direct climate impact of the agriculture sector in six countries in terms of GHG emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. Not surprisingly, emissions are highest in India, followed by Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Environmental stress has reached critical levels because freshwater withdrawal for agriculture leads to water stress. These levels are acutely high in Pakistan, followed by India and Sri Lanka. Table 2. Agricultural non-carbon-dioxide GHG emissions and freshwater withdrawals in the six South Asian countries, 2020 Country Nitrogen oxide emissions in MMtCO2e* Methane emissions in MMtCO2e* Annual freshwater withdrawals for agriculture** Level of water stress*** Bangladesh 25.21 60.37 87.82% 5.72 Bhutan 0.10 0.39 94.08% 1.41 India 230.51 500.26 90.41% 66.49 Nepal 1.74 4.39 98.14% 8.31 Pakistan 5.88 19.94 93.98% 116.31 Sri Lanka 59.79 135.41 87.36% 90.79 Source: Compiled from the World Development Indicators database, World Bank. Note: GHG = greenhouse gases; MMtCO2e = million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. * Emission data reported are the 3-year average for 2018–2020. ** As percentage share of the country’s total freshwater withdrawal. *** Also called water withdrawal intensity, this measure is defined as the ratio between total freshwater withdrawn by all major sectors to total renewable freshwater resources, after accounting for environmental water requirements. The main sectors include agriculture; forestry and fishing; manufacturing; the electricity industry; and services. Because the environmental costs of economic activities are typically hidden—that is, not evident in market transactions—they need to be internalized in the economic system through proper policy interventions. Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported estimates of the hidden environmental costs of the agrifood sector due to climate change, withdrawal of blue water (fresh surface water and groundwater), land use changes, and nitrogen emissions (FAO 2023). It also provided estimates of hidden social costs (due to adverse productivity effects of malnutrition, undernourishment, and poverty) and hidden health costs (due to adverse productivity impacts of diet and high body mass index). Table 3 summarizes the incidence of the environmental cost of the agrifood sector as estimated by the FAO. The cost is highest in India, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. 8 The hidden social cost due to agrifood worker poverty is highest in India, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Table 3. Components of hidden environmental and social costs of the agrifood system in the six South Asian countries (in millions 2020 PPP $) Country Environmental cost Social cost Climate change Agricultural blue water withdrawal Land use changes Nitrogen emissions Agrifood worker poverty Burden of disease (undernourishment) Bangladesh 8,101 316 340 16,821 16,293 1,399 India 77,396 36,322 24,051 144,209 15,7360 15,253 Nepal 2004 243 55 1,474 2,089 148 Pakistan 16,485 5,226 76 7,254 16,216 4,681 Sri Lanka 859 149 36 3,116 341 38 Source: Compiled from estimates reported in FAO (2023, p. 98). Figures represent expected values based on data for 2014–2020. Note: PPP = purchasing power parity. Climate change has led to a decreased precipitation trend in the region, with an increased incidence of drought in Central Himalaya but increased flood disasters in the higher Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra, and with higher water stress in the western compared to the eastern parts of South Asia (Shaw et al. 2022, pp. 1485–1486). A large part of the region is estimated to experience worsening heat stress conditions, and countries such as India and Pakistan are particularly vulnerable because extreme climate conditions threaten food security in these agro- based economies (ibid, p. 1467). Studies have observed declines in crop yields and a rise in crop diseases due to climate extremes of floods, droughts, and heat waves in Pakistan (ibid, p. 1490). 1.2. The Need to Transition to Climate-Smart Agriculture: Broad Contours of Transitioning These climate changes pose a serious challenge to providing nutritious, safe, and affordable food for all in the South Asian nations. In fact, development challenges in South Asia are effectively a function of climate change. It is therefore imperative to adopt climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices that support adaptation to climate change through changes in irrigation and cropping systems—for example, growing crops that are heat tolerant and drought resistant. Climate- resilient agriculture would increase productivity and income and would also abate GHG through techniques such as fertigation or nano urea, zero tillage, strip tillage, alternate wetting and drying (AWD) irrigation, bed planting with residue retention, direct-seeded rice, improved livestock management, enhanced carbon sequestration of plants and soil, and agroforestry. In essence, recognizing the interlinkage between climate change and food security, CSA encompasses a 9 range of practices in the management of cropland, livestock, fisheries, and forests to enhance climate change resilience. Transitioning to a climate-smart system also requires water-saving agricultural technologies and practices. The current consumption of freshwater for agriculture cannot be sustained, as blue water (surface freshwater resources and groundwater) is increasingly scarce in the region. The hidden cost of agricultural blue water withdrawal is estimated to be the highest in India, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka (Table 3). Groundwater withdrawal has been very high, particularly in the three South Asian countries of India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan (Shaw et al. 2022, p. 1488). Almost 90 percent of groundwater extraction in India is for agriculture (NITI Aayog 2022, p. 23), resulting in severe aquifer depletion. It is critical to increase crop productivity with water-saving agricultural technologies such as drip irrigation and direct-seeded rice, which increase water efficiency. Climate mitigation in agriculture and allied activities pertain mostly to the reduction of non-carbon- dioxide GHG. The agriculture sector contributes about 22 percent of global GHG (IPCC 2023), the largest source of non-carbon-dioxide GHG emissions, including methane and nitrous oxide.3 These emissions are expected to reach 6,339 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMtCO2e) by 2030 due to growth in fertilizer consumption, crop production, and livestock population (EPA 2019, p. 53). Although livestock accounts for most emissions, there is limited scope to reduce emissions in that sector. As a result, mitigation strategies have focused on cultivating specific crops, such as rice or paddy, which are estimated to have a relatively higher mitigation potential compared to livestock (Trang et al. 2020). Consequently, the strategy for climate mitigation in agriculture has focused on reducing nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer use, methane emissions from paddy rice, and nitrous oxide and methane through livestock manure management (Mbow et al. 2019). From 1990 through 2015, rice grown in non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Asian countries was estimated to account for more than 80 percent of global methane emissions from rice cultivation (EPA 2019, p. 62) and was expected to increase to 84 percent by 2030. Moreover, the increasing trend is expected to continue, with China and India accounting for the largest shares in 2030 (ibid, p. 63). Among the mitigation technologies for paddy cultivation, direct-seeded rice has gained prominence because it does not require standing water in the fields, instead using AWD cycles. These cycles reduce both the amount of water used (thereby reducing the energy required for pumping water; hence carbon dioxide emitted in thermal power plants) and the methane emissions from the soil. The forestry sector helps to reduce GHG emissions directly through natural carbon sequestration in soil and serves as a significant strategy in offsetting emissions from other economic sectors. While some climate-smart practices have been adopted in agriculture, forestry, and other land use on a pilot basis in South Asia, these strategies need to be scaled up. 3 Includes emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFLOU) in 2019. 10 This study reviews the policy landscape of six South Asian countries—Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka—that promote and support CSA. The analysis also compares the climate policy regimes across these countries, beginning with their commitments under the Paris Agreement and their corresponding domestic regulations, strategies, and targets. Domestic climate policy regimes in these six countries were initiated three decades ago at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro with the signing of the UNFCCC between November 1993 and August 1995 (Table 4), followed by accession to the Kyoto Protocol. The most significant domestic climate policies, however, took shape after the 2015 Paris Agreement was ratified. Table 4 provides the ratification timelines of the multilateral climate agreements for the six countries. While five South Asian countries ratified the Paris Agreement in 2016, Bhutan did so in 2017. Except for Bangladesh and Pakistan, four of these countries have committed to a target year for achieving net zero carbon emissions or carbon neutrality ranging from 2030 to 2070, with Bhutan already being carbon neutral. These international commitments, reinforced by domestic policies, will influence regional developments. Table 4. Engagement in multilateral environmental agreements*: Ratification, accession, and net zero targets** of the six South Asian countries Country UNFCCC, 1992 Kyoto Protocol, 1997 Paris Agreement, 2015 Net zero/carbon neutrality target status Bangladesh April 1994 October 2001a September 2016 Net zero by 2050 (in discussion) Bhutan August 1995 August 2002a September 2017 Carbon neutrality by 2030 (achieved) India November 1993 August 2002a October 2016 Net zero by 2070 (pledged) Nepal May 1994 September 2005a October 2016 Net zero by 2050 (pledged) Pakistan June 1994 January 2005a November 2016 Net zero by 2050 (in discussion) Sri Lanka November 1993 September 2002a September 2016 Carbon neutrality in electricity generation by 2050# (pledged) Source: Compiled from the United Nations Treaty Collection website. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the- convention/status-of-ratification-of-the-convention; https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification Note: UNFCCC = United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. * The UNFCCC dated May 1992 entered into force in March 1994; the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC dated December 1997 entered into force in February 2005; and the Paris Agreement dated December 2015 entered into force in November 2016. ** Net zero target years are declared in the respective Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of four of the South Asian countries (not including Bangladesh and Pakistan). a Accession # Sri Lanka’s Nationally Determined Contribution states that it “expects to achieve its carbon neutrality by 2050.” This review traces the recent climate mitigation and adaptation strategies adopted for the agriculture sector, as evident in the national policy documents of the six South Asian countries, and explores whether these policies include specific priority CSA technologies. The CSA technologies and practices considered include bed planting with residue retention, strip tillage, zero tillage, sustainable land management, protected agriculture (polyhouse), drip irrigation, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/status-of-ratification-of-the-convention https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/status-of-ratification-of-the-convention https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/status-of-ratification 11 resilient intercropping, AWD irrigation technique, solar-powered water pumps with micro- irrigation, multi-purpose soil conservation bunds, climate-resilient seeds, and agroforestry. The paper also examines the trade regimes governing CSA-related technological inputs and equipment across these countries, identifying tariff and nontariff barriers that restrict trade in such technologies and materials. Section 2 provides a snapshot of the climate policy for the agriculture sector in each of the six countries, as reflected in their respective Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and in domestic plans and policies. Section 3 reviews the trade policy regimes in these countries and identifies the tariff and nontariff barriers that hinder the adoption of priority CSA technologies in South Asia. Section 4 compares the regulatory regimes in seed certification, trade in agricultural equipment, and food safety and quality in the six countries. Section 5 concludes with a regional cooperation strategy for scaling up CSA in South Asia. 2. MULTILATERAL CLIMATE COMMITMENTS IN AGRICULTURE AND DOMESTIC POLICY REGIMES In the last decade, much of the domestic climate policy action has aligned with commitments made under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the first multilateral climate agreement requiring developing nations to contribute to climate mitigation. This section traces the NDCs of six South Asian countries under the Paris Agreement to the UNFCCC, along with their most significant domestic climate policies since its ratification. Given the contiguity of the six South Asian countries and their shared ecological subsystems— including riverine, marine, and coastal resources—these nations share agroclimatic zones that defy sovereign borders. This calls for a regional approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation in the agriculture sector, as cooperation is essential to achieving national targets amid regional interdependencies and spillovers. This section highlights the climate commitments in the agriculture sector outlined in the NDCs and the national adaptation plans of each of the six countries. A comparison of these pledges finds that Bangladesh, one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, is a front-runner in committing to ambitious quantitative targets. Its climate commitments in the agriculture sector specify CSA technologies for scaling up, such as rice acreage using AWD, acreage with controlled fertilizer application, number of livestock with feed improvement to reduce enteric fermentation, and so on. The smaller and vulnerable landlocked countries of Bhutan and Nepal, followed by Sri Lanka, have also set some numerical targets. However, India, the largest economy, has made no specific declarations regarding CSA activities. Given these countries’ shared ecological resources, there is regional interdependency in achieving their country-specific climate targets. It is important to recognize that the region’s smaller economies contribute to carbon sequestration and mitigation but bear the brunt of climate cost from the economic activities of larger countries. Regional cooperation in mitigation and 12 adaptation is therefore essential to reducing the region’s vulnerability and helping to achieve country pledges. 2.1. Bangladesh Bangladesh is among the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world because of its biophysical and socioeconomic vulnerability. The country’s vulnerability has increased over the years following the trend of temperature increase, drought, erratic precipitation, floods, sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion.4 Geographically, the country’s climate change hot spots are in the central and western coastal areas, the northwestern highlands, and along the main rivers (Bangladesh MOEFCC 2021, p. 28). The number of high heat index days are expected to increase further across all eight divisions of the country by the middle of the century.5 There is a significant trend of decreasing precipitation in the eastern divisions, accompanied by a significant increase in precipitation across the western areas (World Bank 2024, p. 11). The incidence of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase during the next few decades, with heightened risk of climate hazards, including drought, floods, sea level rise, and tropical cyclones. Climate change and associated extreme weather events pose a direct risk to the people of Bangladesh, with more than half the population living in “high climate exposure areas,” and climate change threatens to wipe out one-third of agricultural output by 2050 (World Bank 2024, p. 21). About 40 percent of the coastal area is susceptible to saltwater intrusion during the dry season, while 50 percent of the total land area is at risk of extreme flooding, and 47 percent is susceptible to extreme drought events (GED 2015, p. 451). With large tracts of land at risk of saltwater intrusion, floods, and drought, the agriculture sector is jeopardized, threatening food security and the livelihoods of most of Bangladesh’s population. Although Bangladesh is a relatively small emitter of GHG globally, the country has been grappling with climate adaptation due to its frequent exposure to severe cyclones and floods, and it has committed to climate mitigation in earnest. Of its total GHG emissions, the majority come from the energy and fuel combustion sector (54 percent), followed by agriculture (34 percent) and waste (9.87 percent), while industrial processes and product use contribute the remaining 2 percent (Bangladesh DoE 2023). The cultivation of rice paddy is the largest contributor to GHG emissions within agriculture in Bangladesh (CIAT and World Bank 2017). Unfortunately, more than 1 million hectares of cultivable land have been affected by salinity intrusion caused by slow- and rapid-onset events, leading to an estimated loss of 200,000 metric tons of crops (Bangladesh MoEFCC 2022, p. 64) and making the development of heat- and salinity-tolerant crops imperative. 4 Over the last five decades (1971–2020), the mean temperature of the country has increased by 0.16°C per decade, with the average minimum temperature rising by 0.20°C per decade and the average maximum by 0.18°C per decade (World Bank 2024, p. 10). 5 The eight divisions of Bangladesh include Barisal (south), Khulna (southwestern), Rajshahi (northwestern), Dhaka (central north), Rangpur (northwest), Mymensigh (northeast), Sylhett (northeast), and Chittagong (southeast). 13 Agriculture in Bangladesh continues to play an important role in generating employment and reducing poverty. It includes both subsistence cultivation systems (with a large number of small and marginal farmers) and commercial farms with high-value crops, fisheries, and animal products (CIAT and World Bank 2017). Efforts have been made to adopt certain CSA practices, such as AWD irrigation methods to conserve water during the dry season of rice cultivation, deep placement of urea briquette to improve nitrogen recovery efficiency and enhance rice yields, a shift toward the cultivation of non-rice crops, and incorporation of rice straw into paddy soil to enhance soil fertility. Given the increasing threat of sea level rise and tropical storm swells, strategies against saline intrusion are critical to protect the large number of smallholders in the flood-prone lowlands (CIAT and World Bank 2017). The traditional knowledge-based practice of sorjan cropping, involving alternate raised beds (for vegetables/dryland crops) and deep furrows (for fish), allows for an integrated cropping strategy in waterlogged lands. The aquaculture feed waste that collects at the bottom of the pond is taken out to serve as fertilizer for vegetables grown on the elevated beds. The sorjan technique emerged as a sustainable technique in the face of excessive rain and flooding in the southern coast of Bangladesh, as it improves soil drainage and allows for cultivation of crops/vegetables and fish year-round. Moreover, marginal coastal land that is otherwise unsuitable for traditional farming due to flooding or salinity can be brought under cultivation. By channeling water in the troughs, the sorjan technique protects crop roots from waterlogging and salinity (as the roots in the elevated beds remain above the saline water table), while effectively providing irrigation during the dry months. Higher farm productivity from mixed cultivation has helped to increase farmers’ income and has enhanced food security. The mixed intensive cropping has reduced soil erosion, helped increase organic matter in the soil, and increased carbon sequestration. A sorjan mixed farming project for growing multiple vegetables in Patuakhali, funded by the International Rice Research Institute, yielded positive profits despite heavy rains. The project noted that scaling up would be successful with financial help for initial setup, access to quality materials, and increased awareness and training (Ahmed et al. 2024). In areas prone to prolonged flooding, farmers in Bangladesh have practiced floating agriculture for centuries. Vegetables and spice crops are grown in floating beds made from water hyacinth and other aquatic weeds, which form the base. The traditional method is used especially in the southern floodplains of the Barisal, Gopalganj, and Pirojpur districts. 2.1.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement Bangladesh has been an early participant in multilateral negotiations on climate change action over the past three decades. It ratified the 1992 UNFCCC in April 1994, followed by the Kyoto Protocol in October 2001 and the Paris Agreement in September 2016. While the Kyoto Protocol did not require emission reduction commitments from developing countries, the Paris Agreement required commitments from them through NDCs to abate global climate change.6 Although 6 The Kyoto Protocol included a provision allowing developing countries to voluntarily generate carbon credits through the hosting of Clean Development Mechanism projects undertaken by industrialized countries with commitments. 14 Bangladesh’s initial NDC submission to the UNFCCC did not include the agriculture sector, its updated NDC (submitted in August 2021) extended climate mitigation and adaptation commitments to the agriculture sector, along with the previously covered power, industry, and transport sectors. Bangladesh’s updated NDC outlined both unconditional and conditional (on support received from developed countries) emission reductions. It pledged unconditionally to reduce GHG by 27.56 MtCO2e—or 6.73 percent below business as usual (BAU) levels—by 2030, and it pledged conditionally to more than double that reduction—to 61.9 MtCO2e, or 15 percent below BAU—by 2030 (using 2012 as the base year).7 The base year GHG emissions from the agriculture and livestock sector were 45.87 MMtCO2e, constituting 27.13 percent of total national emissions in 2012; and GHG emissions from energy use in agriculture (such as pumps, tractors, and harvesters) were 2.73 MMtCO2e, constituting 1.61 percent of total emissions (Bangladesh MOEFCC 2021, p. 3–4). Of the unconditional emission reductions committed to by 2030, abatement from agriculture would constitute 2.3 percent, while the bulk would be from the energy sector (95.4 percent) and the remainder from the waste sector. Under conditional mitigation, the largest share of reductions is again pledged from the energy sector (96.46 percent), followed by 1.8 percent from the waste sector and 0.65 percent from the agriculture sector. Table 5 summarizes Bangladesh’s updated NDC, clearly outlining the strategies it may use to achieve both the unconditional and conditional (dependent on the receipt of climate finance) goals and those pertaining to agriculture and forestry. The mitigation policies for agriculture, forestry, and other land uses include reducing methane emissions from rice cultivation and enteric fermentation of livestock and manure management, as well as nitrous oxide emission from nitrogen-based fertilizers. Notably, among the six South Asian countries, Bangladesh has committed to the most detailed targets for mitigating GHG emissions in the agriculture sector, including specifying the number of solar-based irrigation pumps and mini biogas plants to be installed by 2030. The NDC clearly identifies the CSA techniques to be used to reach mitigation targets by 2030: • Adopt AWD irrigation to reduce methane emissions from paddy cultivation, including extending the acreage under AWD in the dry season to 150,000 hectares (50,000 unconditionally and 100,000 conditionally). • Extend cultivation of improved climate-resilient rice varieties to 3,240,000 hectares (1,111,000 unconditionally and 2,129,000 conditionally). • To abate nitrous oxide emissions, reduce and better manage the use of nitrogen fertilizers on more than 1 million hectares using practices such as soil test–based fertilizer application, reduced tillage, barn management, and deep placement of urea in rice fields. 7 The updated NDCs drew lessons from Bangladesh’s earlier submission of its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in 2015, as well as from the NDC implementation roadmap and action plan of 2018. 15 Table 5 also shows the afforestation, reforestation, and forest conservation planned for carbon sequestration. Bangladesh has observed that, among the key challenges in implementing climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, government officials’ lack of knowledge and awareness about NDCs in the relevant sectors have been significant. Another challenge is the lack of basic data collection in relevant sectors such as agriculture and forestry (Bangladesh MOEFCC 2021, p. 23). Table 5. Agriculture sector commitments in Bangladesh’s updated NDC for 2030 Unconditional contributions Conditional contributions Renewable energy for agriculture • Implementation of 5,925 solar irrigation pumps (generating 176.38 MW) for agriculture Implementation of 4,102 solar irrigation pumps (generating 164 MW) for agriculture Agricultural emission reduction Methane emission reduction from rice fields: • AWD upscaling in dry season rice fields across 50,000 ha of croplands • Rice varietal improvement for 1,111,000 ha of croplands Nitrous oxide emission reduction from nitrogen-based fertilizers: • Management of 209,000 ha of croplands (e.g., leaf color chart, soil test–based fertilizer application, less tillage, barn management) • Improvement of fertilizer management (e.g., deep placement of urea in rice field, training, awareness) in 50,000 ha • Increase in area under pulse cultivation Methane emission reduction from enteric fermentation: • Replacement of low-productive animals with high- productive crossbred cattle (large ruminant, 0.94 million; small ruminant, 0.89 million) • Feed improvement using a balanced diet and beneficial microorganisms for livestock (large ruminant, 0.51 million; small ruminant, 0.68 million) Methane and nitrous oxide emissions reduction from manure management: • Improved manure management through promotion of 57,000 mini biogas plants. • Awareness and training program Methane emission reduction from rice fields: • AWD upscaling in dry season rice fields across 100,000 ha of croplands • Rice varietal improvement for 2,129,000 ha of croplands Nitrous oxide emission reduction from nitrogen-based fertilizers: • 627,000 ha cropland management (e.g., leaf color chart, soil test–based fertilizer application, less tillage, barn management) • Improvement of fertilizer management (e.g., deep placement of urea in rice field, training, awareness) in 150,000 ha • Increase in area under pulse cultivation Methane emission reduction from enteric fermentation: • Replacement of low-productive animals with high- productive crossbred cattle (large ruminant, 1.882 million; small ruminant, 1.776 million) • Feed improvement using a balanced diet and beneficial microorganisms for livestock (large ruminant, 1.013 million; small ruminant, 1.355 million) Methane and nitrous oxide emissions reduction from manure management: • Improved manure management through promotion of 107,000 mini biogas plants. • Awareness and training program Forest conservation/ restoration • Increase forest cover • Increase tree cover, from 22.37% (2014) to 24%. • Maintain forest cover and tree cover through collaborative forest management, social forestry, and other programs 16 • Afforestation and reforestation of 150,000 ha in the coastal areas, islands, and degraded areas • Restoration of 137,800 ha of deforested hill and Plainland Sal forests • Restoration of 200,000 ha of degraded hill and Plainland Sal forests • Plantation in roadsides, embankments, private lands, etc. • Forest conservation by scale-up of alternative income-generating activity for forest-dependent communities consisting of 55,000 families • Co-management of 72,000 ha of protected areas • Additional coastal afforestation activities • Maintenance of restoration of degraded or deforested areas • Plantation in roadsides, embankments, private lands, etc. Source: Bangladesh’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), 2021. Note: AWD = alternate wetting and drying; ha = hectares; MW = megawatts. 2.1.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in Bangladesh Two decades ago, in 2005, the Bangladesh Ministry of Environment and Forests developed the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), following the seventh Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC. Its aim was to identify and mainstream climate-change adaptation strategies and coping mechanisms for extreme events. Over the years, Bangladesh has systematically developed a rich set of work plans, strategies, and policies for effective climate adaptation and disaster preparedness to address its climate vulnerability. In the agriculture and forestry sectors, NAPA 2005 recognized that coastal afforestation would help reduce climate change hazards and emphasized the importance of promoting drought-, flood-, and saline-tolerant crop varieties. It identified elevated temperatures as a cause of sterility in rice spikelet, which could significantly reduce yields of this staple cereal and worsen food insecurity.8 While agriculture and fishery systems in the northeast and central regions of the country needed to adapt to flash floods, those in coastal areas needed to address enhanced salinity (Bangladesh MoEF 2005, p. 22). Another key priority was ensuring the provision of drinking water to coastal communities facing increased salinity due to sea level rise. By 2008, the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) was developed, building on NAPA 2005 (following the 13th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC). The BCCSAP was designed to guide the country’s mitigation and adaptation efforts and enhance climate resilience over the next 10 years (2009–2018). With two-thirds of the country less than 5 meters above sea level and prone to floods and cyclones, Bangladesh had long been addressing ways to enhance resilience to natural disasters through investments in flood management embankments, coastal polders, and cyclone shelters. These structures need augmentation if sea level rise exceeds earlier projections. Coastal polders were built to prevent sea level rise from causing flooding and saline intrusion into aquifers and rivers. In the northeast and central areas, however, the risk remains from higher monsoon flows due to the rapid melting of Himalayan 8 On the other hand, moisture stress threatens the tea plantations in the northeast, while increased salinity threatens the Sundarbans mangrove forest and freshwater species. Moreover, increased salinity reduces the nutritional content of food, including rice, leading to deficiencies in zinc and other micronutrients (GED 2020, p. 287). 17 glaciers into the rivers that flow into Bangladesh from India, Nepal, Bhutan, and China (Bangladesh MoEF 2008, p. 3).9 The pro-poor, climate-resilient, and low-carbon development strategy in the BCCSAP was based on six pillars, the first of which was food security, social protection, and health (Bangladesh MoEF 2008, p. 2). This focus was critical, as the IPCC projected that by 2050, rice production could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32 percent (compared to the base year, 1990) due to rising temperatures, droughts, altered precipitation patterns, floods, and increased salinity (ibid, p. 13). The 7th Five-Year Plan 2016–2020 and 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 (8th FYP) emphasized the need for climate-resilient agriculture while ensuring food security through access to nutritious, diversified (with animal protein) food. Although the agriculture sector’s share of aggregate output has declined, it remains critically important for providing livelihood security to millions and ensuring national food security. The 10-year National Food and Nutrition Security Policy 2021–2030 outlines priority interventions in an integrated manner through the 8th and 9th Five-Year Plan periods, aiming to achieve food and nutrition security sustainably aligned with international commitments by 2030. Its detailed action agenda includes the development of stress-tolerant, high-yielding varieties of major crops, including pulses, oilseeds, soybeans, and fruits and vegetables; the promotion of efficient surface irrigation; the production of quality feed and fodder; and the stabilizing of regional food trade. The policy also supports the adoption of specific climate-smart technologies, including AWD, zero tillage, and drip irrigation. Bangladesh emerged as a surplus producer of two crops, rice and potato, but continues to be import-dependent for pulses and oilseeds. In fact, the domestic production and per capita availability of pulses have declined in the past decade (GED 2020, p. 289).10 Bangladesh has achieved self-sufficiency in fish production and consumption. The fisheries sector contributes more than 25 percent of agricultural GDP, and more than 10 percent of the population depends on the sector for their livelihoods (GED 2020, p. 312). With rice as the country’s staple crop and more than 75 percent of the country’s cultivated land under paddy cultivation, there is concern about food security in the community following the call to reduce emissions from rice cultivation. Another challenge is low soil fertility resulting from low organic content. To address this issue, Bangladesh has been working to balance the use of nitrogen-based fertilizers to reduce soil carbon emissions by increasing subsidies for non-urea fertilizers (GED 2020, p. 294). 9 The combined peak discharge of the three rivers in the delta region, Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Meghna, during the flood season is 180,000 m3/sec (Bangladesh MoEF 2008, p. 6). About a quarter of the country is inundated during years of average monsoons. 10 The use of stress-tolerant, high-yielding variety seeds along with the use of modern technology mechanization and balanced chemical fertilizers are considered to result in enhanced rice productivity. Among the three paddy varieties grown—aman (sown in monsoon and harvested in winter), boro (sown in winter and harvested in early summer) and aus (sown in summer and harvested in autumn)—the highest productivity growth has been witnessed in aus, followed by boro and aman (GED 2020, p. 291). 18 It is important to note that the agriculture sector is the single largest consumer of freshwater in the country, accounting for about 70–80 percent of total freshwater withdrawals.11 The groundwater table in northern Bangladesh has declined rapidly (GED 2020, p. 295), yet irrigation efficiency is abysmally low at barely 30–40 percent, indicating that 60–70 percent of the water supplied for irrigation is wasted. Climate change will adversely impact freshwater availability, especially in coastal areas affected by saline intrusion and flooding. To encourage more efficient water use, water pricing must change, a reform that would also incentivize farmers to diversify away from water-intensive paddy during the dry Boro season toward alternatives such as non- rice crops such as pulses, oilseeds, and vegetables. Although the 8th FYP recognizes the climate challenges facing the agriculture sector and strategies for promoting climate-smart agroecosystems, it stops short of setting quantitative targets in this area. The only quantitative targets set are for enhancing the yield of major crops by 2025. However, the plan does set a quantitative target of developing 100 varieties of climate- resilient crops (GED 2020, p. 298) and sets quantitative goals on the number of programs providing training and information services to farmers on balanced fertilizer use (specifically, the use of urea and non-urea to control soil carbon emissions), as well as for updating soil and water salinity data for coastal areas (GED 2020, p. 299). The 8th FYP observed that 24,633 km of strip plantation was achieved during 2009–2020 (GED 2020, p. 504). Although this linear plantation is a positive change, it is not the same as strip tillage or planting, a water-saving technology used in CSA. The Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan 2022–2041 has mainstreamed climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts into Bangladesh’s economic planning, with the vision to transform the country from climate vulnerable to climate resilient and prosperous by 2041. The plan envisions eradicating poverty by 2030, achieving prosperity by 2041, and positioning Bangladesh as a global and regional leader in the green energy economy. In particular, the goal is to make the agricultural and fisheries supply nature based and climate resilient, with a target of doubling agricultural productivity by 2030 (Bangladesh MoEFCC 2022, p. 18). To support this transformation, the plan estimated an investment of US$2.02 billion for the development of a nature-based, climate-smart agricultural and fisheries supply chain, including national disaster risk financing and management to safeguard food security, nutrition, and water security (Bangladesh MoEFCC 2022, p. 102). The Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan is aligned with the techno-economic Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, which seeks to ensure water security through spatial planning, transboundary water resources management, and sustainable agriculture for food security and rural development, among other sectoral approaches, through 2050. The Mujib plan identifies regional partnerships in South Asia, including through the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), as an important strategy. Greater connectivity is seen as instrumental in building resilient green supply chains and value engineering in agriculture, fisheries, and manufacturing (Bangladesh 11According to the General Economics Division (Bangladesh Planning Commission), the share of freshwater withdrawal for agriculture is somewhat lower than that reported in the World Development Indicators (WDI) database, as shown in Table 2. 19 MoEFCC 2022, p. 110). To develop a CSA and fisheries supply chain, the goal is to set up supply chain access to meteorological services at 50 percent by 2025 and 100 percent by 2030, while boosting productivity by 2.5 percent annually by 2025 and 5 percent annually by 2030 (ibid, p. 66). The Bangladesh Delta Plan on water security directly builds in regional cooperation, and the Mujib plan reinforces this regional partnership. The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) 2023–2050 outlines actions to reduce the country’s vulnerabilities to climate change impacts and build a climate-resilient nation. It states six national adaptation goals: (1) Protect against climate change variability and climate-induced national disasters; (2) develop climate-resilient agriculture to ensure food, nutrition, and livelihood security; (3) promote climate-smart cities to improve the urban environment and public well-being; (4) implement nature-based solutions for the conservation of forests, biodiversity, and community well-being; (5) impart good governance by integrating adaptation into the national planning process; and (6) ensure transformative capacity building and innovation for climate change adaptation.12 These strategies are well aligned with the global sustainable development goals and several projects of the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (Bangladesh MoEFCC 2022a). Table 6 highlights the major policy documents promoting the adoption-specific CSA technologies. The most prominently featured CSA technologies are as follows: • Climate-resilient seeds and solar-powered irrigation pumps (in seven of the major plans, specified with quantitative targets in the current 8th FYP). • AWD irrigation (in six of the major plans). • Zero tillage and agroforestry (in five of the major plans). • Drip irrigation and bed planting with residue retention (in four of the major plans). As noted earlier, the NDC specifically identifies the first four CSA technologies and reflects that the recent domestic policies for CSA are closely aligned with Bangladesh’s multilateral climate commitments. Table 6. CSA technologies in Bangladesh’s domestic policies CSA technology Policy document recommending CSA technology Specific CSA goals set in policy documents Bed planting with residue retention 1) Agricultural Extension Manual 2016 2) Perspective Plan 2021–2041 3) 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 4) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 Strip tillage 1) 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 Zero tillage 1) Perspective Plan 2021-2041 2) Agricultural Extension Manual 2016 12 The plan primarily addresses climate adaptation in the eight sectors: (1) water resources; (2) agriculture; (3) fisheries, aquaculture, and livestock; (4) urban areas; (5) ecosystems, wetlands, and biodiversity; (6) disaster, social safety, and security; (7) policies and institutions; and (8) capacity development, research, and innovation. It also covers cross-cutting issues such as infrastructure, sanitation, and health. 20 3) National Agricultural Mechanization Policy 2020 4) National Food and Nutrition Security Policy 2021 5) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 Sustainable land management 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 Numerical targets for soil analysis and fertilizer card distribution, farmer training on balanced fertilizer use, soil and water salinity data update Protected agriculture (polyhouse) National Agricultural Mechanization Policy 2020 Drip irrigation 1) Agricultural Extension Manual 2016 2) National Agricultural Mechanization Policy 2020 3) 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 4) National Food and Nutrition Security Policy 2021 5) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 Direct-seeded rice 1) Perspective Plan 2010–2021 2) Delta Plan 2100 3) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 Resilient intercropping 1) National Agricultural Plan 2018 2) Delta Plan 2100 3) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 Alternate wetting and drying irrigation technique 1) Agricultural Extension Manual 2016 2) Perspective Plan 2010–2021 3) 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 4) Perspective Plan 2021–2041 5) National Food and Nutrition Security Policy 2021 6) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 Solar-powered water pumps coupled with micro-irrigation 1) Agricultural Extension Manual 2016 2) 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 3) Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan 2022–2041 4) National Agricultural Plan 2018 5) National Agricultural Mechanization Policy 2020 6) Perspective Plan 2021–2041 7) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 Guidelines for grid integration of solar irrigation pumps by 2020; already formulated in the 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 Multi-purpose soil conservation bunds 1) Delta Plan 2100 2) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 Climate-resilient seeds 1) National Adaptation Program 2005 2) Agricultural Extension Manual 2016 3) National Agricultural Plan 2018 4) 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 5) National Food and Nutrition Security Policy 2021 6) Delta Plan 2100 7) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 ➢ Development of salinity-tolerant rice species at BARI and BRRI* ➢ Development of 100 climate-resilient non-rice crop varieties (8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025) 21 Agroforestry 1) Perspective Plan 2010–2021 2) National Agricultural Plan 2018 3) 8th Five-Year Plan 2020–2025 4) Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan 2022–2041 5) National Adaptation Plan 2023–2050 ➢ Increase forest tree cover to 24% of land area (8th Five-Year Plan 2020– 2025) Source: Based on authors’ analysis of Bangladesh’s recent national policy and plan documents cited in the table. Note: CSA = climate-smart agriculture; BARI = Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute; BRRI = Bangladesh Rice Research Institute. 2.2. Bhutan The small Himalayan nation of Bhutan is extremely vulnerable to climate change due to its landlocked location in a fragile mountainous ecosystem and its economy’s heavy dependence on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and hydropower. Agriculture in Bhutan is rain fed, making it particularly susceptible to climate change–induced shifts in precipitation patterns, glacier melt, floods, and landslides, all of which threaten food production, forests, and biodiversity. The country’s recent economic growth has been driven by large investments in hydropower (NEC 2022, p. 16). However, mega hydropower projects have faced severe environmental challenges due to poor geological conditions (which have resulted in accidents and landslides)13 and loss of forest cover. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (MoAF) observed that hydropower development has led to deforestation and loss of wildlife, with 2 hectares on average of forest having been lost for every megawatt of generation capacity.14 The expansion of hydropower capacity to support its own energy needs and that of its neighbors (particularly India) therefore poses a trade-off with Bhutan’s goal of preserving large tracts of land as forest carbon stock, as pledged under the Paris Agreement (apart from its constitutional goal of maintaining 60 percent of its land under forest cover). Ironically, although Bhutan has achieved carbon neutrality and is one of the few net carbon– sequestering countries, it faces an existential threat from climate change due to emissions from the rest of the world. Bhutan has negative net carbon emissions. In 2020, its total GHG emissions were 2,723.28 gigagrams of carbon dioxide equivalent (GgCO2e), while total carbon sequestration from forests (sink capacity) was 9,513.49 GgCO2e, resulting in net emissions of −6,790.21 GgCO2e (NEC 2022, p. 45).15 As shown in Table 2, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture in Bhutan are minimal, amounting to barely 0.5 MMtCO2e.16 Because 13 For example, since 2013, the two large hydropower projects in Punatsangchhu have encountered landslides and slope collapses that have led to environmental concerns and delays. Chencho Dema, March 9, 2023, Dialogue Earth. https://dialogue.earth/en/energy/bhutan-failed-hydropower-goal-and- geopolitics-of-energy/ 14 Based on a 2017 report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forest, Business Bhutan, August 5, 2020. https://businessbhutan.bt/hydropower-constructions-challenge-bhutans-forest-cover-goals/ 15 Note that 1 Gg is equivalent to 1,000 metric tons. 16 The emissions from agriculture and livestock in 2020 were 512.69 GgCO2e (almost 19% of total emissions) and have remained steady through the years (NEC 2022, p. 56). Enteric fermentation https://dialogue.earth/en/energy/bhutan-failed-hydropower-goal-and-geopolitics-of-energy/ https://dialogue.earth/en/energy/bhutan-failed-hydropower-goal-and-geopolitics-of-energy/ https://businessbhutan.bt/hydropower-constructions-challenge-bhutans-forest-cover-goals/ 22 agriculture is constrained by land availability for farming and livestock emissions have remained static over the years—and are expected to remain so through 2050 (DoECC 2023, p. 34)— Bhutan’s mitigation strategy focuses primarily on carbon sequestration through its forests. To achieve food security while maintaining carbon neutrality, Bhutan aims to implement climate- smart and resource-efficient agricultural practices, focusing especially on organic agriculture and sustainable livestock production. Bhutan has identified the key vulnerabilities it faces in developing climate-resilient agriculture and livestock production, including extreme weather events, water scarcity, climate-induced pests and diseases, natural disasters, loss of soil fertility, human–wildlife conflict, and the difficulties that crops and livestock face in adapting to a rapidly changing climate (DoECC 2023, p. 4). Environmental sustainability and ecosystem resilience have long been an integral part of Bhutan’s economic development philosophy, exemplified in its objective of maximizing gross national happiness. Thus, the Five-Year Plans have incorporated sustainability objectives within the goals of the Ministry of Agriculture’s programs for crops, livestock, and forestry. Bhutan’s extensive forest cover—71.5 percent of its total land area (Table 1)—has been instrumental in achieving the country’s carbon neutrality. However, carbon sequestration through forests is poised to come under threat soon. Land use change is accelerating, driven by growing needs for hydropower development and urbanization, and is projected to increase 1 percent annually beginning in 2025 (DoECC 2023, p. 36). Ironically, while the growth of hydropower in Bhutan will help provide more carbon-free energy to neighboring SAARC countries, it will reduce the scope for expanding forest-based carbon stock within the country. 2.2.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement Bhutan ratified the UNFCCC in August 1995, the Kyoto Protocol in August 2002, and the Paris Agreement in September 2017. As a net carbon–sequestering nation, Bhutan, in its most recent submission to the IPCC, observed that it “has already made a global commitment to remain a carbon-neutral country for all times to come, which in itself is explicit and more than its fair share of responsibility” (DoECC 2023, p. 24). It is indeed noteworthy that Bhutan achieved carbon neutrality in 2009, almost two decades ago. Table 7 summarizes Bhutan’s second NDC, submitted to the UNFCCC in 2021. The submission outlines commitments to enhance renewable energy generation for agricultural use through the expansion of mini hydel (mini-hydropower) systems, solar energy, and biogas production. The committed cumulative emission reductions in agriculture, forestry, and other land uses are 301.15 GgCO2e by 2025, 1239.77 GgCO2e by 2030, and 4945.51 GgCO2e by 2050.17 To mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture, Bhutan has committed to the following targets: accounts for most of these emissions (66.5%), followed by agricultural soil (17.3%), manure management (9.6%), and rice cultivation (6.5%). 17 That is, 0.301 million tons by 2025, 1.239 million tons by 2030, and 4.945 million tons by 2050, as 106 tons = 109 gm = 1 million tons = 1,000 Gg. 23 • Reducing continuous rice flooding by 200 hectares per year. • Transitioning from synthetic to organic fertilizers by 5 percent per year. • Improving dairy cattle breeds and feed management of 8,333 in number. • Increasing soil biomass through perennial crop production on 17,495 hectares to improve soil management. • Enhancing forest carbon stock and promote agroforestry on 15 acres. Table 7. Agriculture sector commitments in Bhutan’s second NDC for 2030 Renewable energy for agriculture/forests • Small and medium biogas production through 10,254 projects • Solar energy for wildlife sanctuary: An 80 kW decentralized solar PV plant to provide sustainable electricity supply to the Aja Ney community living inside the Bumdeling Wildlife Sanctuary, intended to enable access to clean energy for the community to curtail their dependence on firewood • A 500 kW mini-hydel to provide energy to the remote Lunana community and eliminate the need for a 97 km transmission line in a nationally protected area and avoid deforestation and degradation Agricultural emission reduction (mitigation potential of 710 GgCO2e) • Improved agricultural practices on 14,971 ha • Methane emission reduction from rice fields: Reduction of continuous rice flooding of 200 ha/year • Emission reduction from synthetic fertilizers: Switch from synthetic to organic fertilizers at 5% annually • Increased biomass through perennial crop production on 17,495 ha • Methane emission from enteric fermentation: Improve dairy cattle production through breed improvement and feeding management target of 8,333 in number. Forest conservation • Improved forest management and conservation—maintain 436 million tons of forest carbon stock outside protected area system • Maintenance of at least 50% of land under protected area—maintain 201 million tons of forest carbon stock in protected area system (51.44% of land area and 31% of forest area) • Enhanced plantation and restoration work on 2,000 ha of forest carbon stock • Initiation and promotion of 15 acres of agroforestry • Wetlands conservation—conduct wetland assessment for understanding organic carbon content Source: Bhutan’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), 2021. Note: GgCO2e = gigagrams of carbon dioxide equivalent; ha = hectares; kw = kilowatt; PV = photovoltaic. 2.2.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in Bhutan Environmental sustainability has been a core principle of economic planning in Bhutan since the 1990 Paro Resolution on Environment and Sustainable Development.18 Maximizing gross national happiness became the stated objective of development planning, with two of the four key areas being preservation and sustainable use of the environment, and good governance (RGoB 2002, p. 4). 18 Chapter 9, 8th Five-Year Plan 1997–2002. 24 The 10th Five-Year Plan 2008–2013 outlined several development programs19 in agriculture and related activities to increase crop and livestock productivity. These include Integrated Soil Fertility and Land Management, Seed and Plant Development, Organic/Natural Agriculture, Non-Wood Forest Resource Development, Participatory Forestry, Feed and Fodder Development, and Farm Mechanization (RGoB 2008). The 11th Five-Year Plan 2013–2018 introduced targeted strategies to increase agricultural productivity through the development of crop varieties and horticultural commodities tolerant to biotic and non-biotic stress caused by climate change, including drought, floods, and pest and disease outbreaks (RGoB 2013, p. 9–30). The 12th Five-Year Plan 2018–2023 identified “Carbon Neutrality, Climate and Disaster Resilience” as one of the national key result areas (NKRA), which integrated environmental considerations in all sectoral and local government plans. The first program under the NKRA focused on devising and implementing climate-smart, disaster-resilient development policies in agriculture and farming (RGoB 2018, p. 55). Bhutan formulated the Climate Change Policy 2020 with the vision of building a “prosperous, resilient, and carbon neutral Bhutan where the pursuit of gross national happiness for the present and future generations is secure under a changing climate” (NEC 2020, p. 1). The policy upholds key principles, including people’s well-being, intergenerational equity, and protection of the country’s pristine environment as per the Constitution, as well as the precautionary principle and polluter pays principle of the National Environment Protection Act 2007. The Climate Change Policy 2020 outlined the mandate for climate action by each ministry and institution. The MoAF, as the custodian of Bhutan’s forest resources, was tasked with managing forests and soils as carbon sinks and areas for ecosystem-based adaptation. The MoAF was also made responsible for managing emissions from agriculture and livestock, as well as for ensuring the resilience of food systems, livestock, and biodiversity (NEC 2020, p. 20). The associated agricultural and environmental legislations include the Seed Act, Biodiversity Act, Food and Nutritional Policy, and National Forest Policy. The Seed policy is considered important in the goal of maintaining resilient, agro-diverse food systems and food security. Recognizing the critical role of the renewable natural resources (RNR) sector in the livelihoods of the population and the climate change threats Bhutan faces, the country developed the RNR Strategy 2040 in 2021. The strategy aimed to build climate resilience within the sector and addressed several themes, including agricultural technologies, agribusiness, food and nutrition security, climate change, and biodiversity access and benefit sharing. Because climate vulnerabilities threaten agricultural output through extreme weather events such as flash floods and hailstorms—which wash away land and damage crops, and also cause biological disasters such as pest and disease outbreaks in crops and livestock (for example, armyworm, rice blast, bird flu, H1N1)—the RNR Strategy stressed the need to identify and implement appropriate technologies to prevent crop and livestock losses. It also recognized that as a net food importer, Bhutan would continue to be vulnerable to foodborne illnesses and emerging diseases transmitted through the global food supply chain unless it strengthened its sanitary and phytosanitary 19 The program targets were directly linked to the corresponding millennium development goals and sustainable development goals, including environmental sustainability, poverty eradication, improved nutrition, acceptable soil and water quality, and wetland conservation. 25 measures against biosecurity challenges. The RNR Strategy noted that improved seed varieties, scientific land management, mechanization, and irrigation systems have increased crop productivity by 95 percent in the last 15 years (MoAF 2021, p. 24). Research has been more intensive in staple crops such as rice,20 where productivity more than doubled—from 2 tons per hectare in 1981 to 4.2 tons per hectare in 2017 (MoAF 2021, p. 20). The RNR Strategy observed that certain policies are inconsistent. For example, the use of agro- chemicals conflicts with the policy of organic farming (MoAF 2021, p. 31). To address such contradictions, it is important to have an overarching policy for the RNR sector to ensure a coherent, integrated, and systemic approach to growth. The Constitution of Bhutan mandates that a minimum of 60 percent of Bhutan’s land remain under forest cover, and the country exceeds this requirement, with 71 percent of its land forested (ibid, pp. 34, 52). The RNR Strategy set targets for achieving sustainable natural resources and a self-reliant food system by 204021 while enhancing resilience to climate change. These targets include developing 50 climate-resilient crop varieties, 25 climate-smart and gender-responsive technologies, and 25,895 hectares of plantation areas, as well as maintaining forest capacity to sequester 8.248 MtCO2 (MoAF 2021, p. 56). Bhutan’s National Adaptation Plan 2023 identified agriculture and livestock as one of the seven22 priority sectors for adaptation to climate-induced water shortage; wildlife depredation of crops; pests and diseases; and the risk of soil erosion. Agricultural adaptation to ensure resilience in food production will be addressed through sustainable soil and land management, improved water-use efficiency, resilient irrigation systems, agroforestry, organic farming (fertilizers), and climate-resilient livestock management (MENR 2023, p. 36). Bhutan’s Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy, released in 2023, emphasized that, for the country to remain carbon neutral and achieve food security, climate-smart and resource-efficient agricultural practices must focus on organic agriculture in crops and livestock and must integrate sustainable soil and land management technologies (DoECC 2023, pp. 8, 28). The strategy identified the following CSA technologies and practices (ibid, pp. 73–78): • Improved agricultural practices such as tillage management, precision farming, and protected agriculture • Transition from synthetic to organic fertilizers 20 The largest number of cereal varieties were released for rice (23 varieties), followed by maize (4), and other cereals (5). Bhutan also released 4 soybean varieties, 84 vegetable varieties, and 89 fruit varieties for cultivation (MoAF 2021, p. 24). 21 Targets included developing a food and nutrition security index and a biosecurity index, developing and promoting 30 innovative technologies by 2030, establishing 20 research collaborations by 2040, increasing the contribution of the RNR sector to 30 percent of GDP (comprising 14 percent from crops, 17 percent from livestock, and 9 percent from forests), and attaining self-sufficiency ratios of 70 percent for rice and meat, 100 percent for dairy products, 150 percent for vegetables, and 200 percent for fruits by 2040 (ibid, pp. 39, 53). 22 The other six sectors were water; forests and biodiversity; human settlements and climate-smart cities; health; energy; and climate services and disaster risk reduction (MENR 2023, p. 15). 26 • Increased biomass sequestration through perennial crop production and small-scale domestic biogas production • Intermittent rice flooding • Improved dairy cattle feed Table 8 lists the set of domestic policies on the use of specific CSA technologies to achieve emission mitigation targets, in line with Bhutan’s agricultural commitments in its recent NDCs under the Paris Agreement. Table 8. CSA technologies in Bhutan’s domestic policies CSA technology Policy document recommending CSA technology Specific CSA goals set in policy documents Bed planting with residue retention/ use of crop residue 1) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy 2) National Adaptation Plan 2023 • Cumulative emission reduction of 442.5 GgCO2e by 2030 and 1,978.23 GgCO2e by 2050 through perennial crop production Tillage management Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy • Cumulative emission reduction of 133.9 GgCO2e by 2030 and 953.23 GgCO2e by 2050 through tillage management and protected agriculture Sustainable land management/ organic fertilizers 1) 11th Five-Year Plan 2013–2018 2) 12th Five-Year Plan 2018–2023 3) National Environment Strategy 2020 4) National Adaptation Plan 2023 5) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy • Cumulative emission reduction of 6.94 GgCO2e by 2030 and 57.3 GgCO2e by 2050 (Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy) Protected agriculture (polyhouse) 1) 11th Five-Year Plan 2013–2018 2) National Environment Strategy 2020 3) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy • Cumulative emission reduction of 133.9 GgCO2e by 2030 and 953.23 GgCO2e by 2050 through tillage management and protected agriculture Drip irrigation 1) National Environment Strategy 2020 2) National Adaptation Plan 2023 3) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy Alternate wetting and drying/ intermittent rice flooding Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy • Cumulative emission reduction of 0.29 GgCO2e by 2030 and 1.34 GgCO2e by 2050 through intermittent rice flooding Solar-powered water pumps coupled with micro-irrigation/ small-scale biogas production 1) National Adaptation Plan 2023 2) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy 3) RNR Strategy 2040 • Cumulative emission reduction of 107,054 MtCO2e by 2030 and 409,031 MtCO2e by 2050 through biogas production • Promote clean energy production through biogas 27 Multi-purpose soil conservation bunds National Environment Strategy 2020 Climate-resilient seeds/crop varieties National Adaptation Plan 2023 Agroforestry/ climate-smart livestock farming 1) National Environment Strategy 2020 2) National Adaptation Plan 2023 3) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy 4) RNR Strategy 2040 • Cumulative emission reduction of 19.4 GgCO2e by 2030 and 164.05 GgCO2e by 2050 through improved dairy cattle feed • Forest capacity to maintain carbon sequestration at 8.248 million tons of CO2 equivalent (RNR) Source: Based on authors’ analysis of Bhutan’s recent national policy and plan documents cited in the table. Note: GgCO2e = gigagrams of carbon dioxide equivalent; MtCO2e = metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; RNR = Renewable Natural Resources. 2.3. India India, the largest country in South Asia, has also witnessed a significant and steady rise in the annual average temperature, at a rate of 0.61°C per hundred years since 1901, with an even higher increase in the maximum temperature. Moreover, the duration of heat waves during the pre-monsoon season has increased in the northwest, central peninsular, and eastern coastal regions (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 40). Over the past three decades, annual rainfall and monsoon season rainfall have shown a decreasing trend in the districts of eastern and central India, while districts in the western region have experienced an increase. The Himalayan glaciers, which feed the major northern rivers (Brahmaputra, Ganga, and Indus), have been retreating at an accelerated rate during the past few decades. Meanwhile, the sea level along coastal India is rising at a long-term average rate of 1.7 mm per year (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 41). A climate vulnerability analysis indicates that India’s western and southern zones are extremely vulnerable to agricultural droughts, while the northern, eastern, and central zones are moderately vulnerable to meteorological and agricultural droughts (India MoEFCC 2023, p. 38). The southern and eastern zones are also highly vulnerable to extreme cyclonic events, floods, and drought. About half of the agricultural land in the country is rainfed, making the sector highly vulnerable to climate-induced drought. As in the other South Asian countries, the agriculture sector in India provides livelihoods for a large portion of the workforce (India MoEFCC 2023, p. 199). Because the sector largely consists of small and marginal farmers, millions of farmers are acutely vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events that pose severe social and economic risks. The share of small and marginal operational holdings (less than 2 hectares) increased from 85.01 percent of total holdings in 2010–2011 to 86.08 percent in 2015–2016. India’s climate-mitigation strategy has focused on the energy and industrial sectors, while policy action in the agriculture sector is predominantly adaptation oriented. The energy sector accounts 28 for more than three-quarters of the total GHG emissions in the country.23 Within this sector, electricity generation (which accounts for 39 percent of total emissions) is targeted for reduced reliance on fossil-fuel-based power capacity. India’s strategy aims to prevent imposing the mitigation burden on the millions of small and marginal farmers in the agriculture sector. GHG emissions in the agriculture sector are mostly in the form of methane, followed by nitrous oxides. Although the total emissions have increased over the years, the sector’s share of the country’s total emissions has been declining. India is the largest milk producer in the world, and livestock contributes the largest share of emissions in the agriculture sector. In 2019, the agriculture sector accounted for 13 percent of India’s total carbon-equivalent emissions (India MoEFCC 2023, p. 72), with most of the emissions emanating from enteric fermentation, followed by agricultural soils, rice cultivation, manure management, and burning of agricultural residues. India has the highest water withdrawal for agriculture in the world, with about 80 percent of the country’s freshwater resource used in agriculture, while groundwater extraction is unregulated (MOEFCC 2019, p. 7). Enhancing resource efficiency in Indian agriculture and adopting water- saving technology are urgent needs. The draft National Resource Efficiency Policy (NREP), issued by the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change in 2019, highlighted the urgency for action in light of the high resource extraction rate, low productivity, and widespread land degradation. While CSA technologies have been encouraged and subsidized, policy inconsistency remains an issue. For instance, subsidies for zero tillage are offered alongside subsidies for conventional technology (Ishtiaque et al. 2024). In addition, mismanagement, local politics, elite capture, and similar challenges have undermined the effectiveness of custom hiring centers that provide rental services for expensive CSA technology machinery to smallholder farmers with financial constraints (ibid). These factors have hindered the widespread adoption and scaling-up of CSA technologies, despite programs promoting them. Weather-based crop insurance schemes in India have helped reduce risks for farmers from weather shocks such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, and windspeed, using indices derived from official weather station data. However, the number of weather stations need to be increased for more reliable weather-index-based insurance (CGIAR 2013). 2.3.1. Climate Mitigation Commitment in Agriculture under Paris Agreement India ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in November 1993, the Kyoto Protocol in August 2002, and the Paris Agreement in October 2016. Under the Paris Agreement, India updated its pledge to reduce emission intensity of its GDP by 45 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 (unconditionally) and to achieve carbon neutrality (net zero) by 2070 (GOI 2022). As part of its climate mitigation efforts to move toward a cleaner energy mix, India also committed to achieving 50 percent of cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil- 23 The share of the agricultural sector in total energy consumption is around 18.5 percent and could be reduced further through the use of efficient pump sets (India MoEFCC 2023, p. 201). 29 fuel-based resources by 2030. Furthermore, it aims to create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion MtCO2e through forest and tree cover by 2030. However, India did not make any voluntary commitments to reduce emissions from the agriculture sector in its NDC. Table 9 provides a snapshot of India’s overarching climate commitments and agricultural strategy in the updated NDC. In its most recent biennial report to the UNFCCC, India noted that agriculture plays a critical economic role, as the livelihoods of more than half the country’s workforce depends on agricultural and allied activities. Given the dominance of marginal and small farmers, whose average operational holding size is 1.08 hectares,24 this sector is the most vulnerable to climate change and hence the most significant for adaptation efforts. Table 9. Agriculture sector commitments in India’s NDC for 2030 Overarching general targets • Reduce the emission intensity of GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030. • Increase cumulative installed electric power capacity from non-fossil-fuel-based energy resources to 50% by 2030. • Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030. • Reach net zero by 2070. Adaptation strategy in agriculture* • Develop the National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture to ensure food security and protection of resources such as land, water, biodiversity, and genetics. • Adopt the National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture to improve crop production, livestock and fisheries, and institutional interventions. • Promote the National Agroforestry Policy to protect and stabilize ecosystems and promote resilient farming through tree plantations integrated with crops and livestock. Forest conservation under National Mission for Green India • Increase forest/tree cover by 5 million hectares of forest/non-forest lands and improve quality of forest cover on another 5 million hectares (a total of 10 million hectares). • Improve ecosystem services, including biodiversity, hydrological services, and carbon sequestration as a result of treatment of 10 million hectares. • Increase forest-based livelihood income of about 3 million households living in and around the forests. • Enhance annual CO2 sequestration by 50 to 60 million tons in 2020. Source: GOI (2022). * Outlined in the first NDC (the 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution). The updated NDC 2022 specified that “no change in the other sections or text or otherwise of the document containing existing first NDC is proposed.” Note: As per the guidelines, in the Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the UNFCCC, only the sectors covered in voluntary declarations must be reported. India’s voluntary declaration does not cover activities in the agriculture sector. As noted earlier, the agriculture sector is the main source of non-carbon-dioxide GHG, including methane and nitrous oxide. Methane emissions largely stem from livestock rearing (enteric 24 The average size of operational holding has reduced over the years, from 1.15 hectares in 2010–2011. According to the Agriculture Census 2019, the total operated area in the country decreased from 159.59 million hectares in 2010–2011 to 157.82 million hectares in 2015–2016, while the number of operational holdings increased from 138.35 million hectares in 2010–2011 to 146.45 million hectares in 2015–2016 (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 99). 30 fermentation and manure management), followed by rice cultivation,25 while nitrous oxide is primarily due to fertilizer use in soils.26 More than half the emissions in the Indian agriculture sector come from enteric fermentation (54.6 percent), followed by fertilizer application (19 percent), rice cultivation (17.5 percent), manure management (6.7 percent), and burning of agricultural residues (2.2 percent) in the fields (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 164). Methane and nitrous oxides have both been increasing over the years, with the share of nitrous oxide steadily increasing (Some et al. 2019). Forest land and cropland are net sinks of carbon dioxide (while grasslands are a source of emissions); thus these vegetation covers are accounted for under the category of Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) under the UNFCCC. According to India’s report to the UNFCCC, about 15 percent of India’s total carbon emissions in 2016 were sequestered through LULUCF, and the net carbon stock in forests increased by 42.6 million tons during 2017–2019 (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 197).27 As noted above, although India has emphasized carbon sequestration through forests, it has not committed to any emission mitigation in the agriculture sector in its NDCs under the Paris Agreement. In its Third National Communication and Initial Adaptation Communication to the UNFCCC in 2023, India listed various CSA technologies that have been used or experimented with in agronomic and natural resource management. These include crop residue mulching, zero-till sowing, laser leveling, drip and sprinkler irrigation, direct-seeded rice, drum seeding of rice, drought- and flood-tolerant cultivars, and solar-powered water pumps, among others (India MOEFCC 2023, p. 310–312). 2.3.2. Domestic Policies Aligned with CSA in India The 2006 National Environmental Policy aimed to promote conservation of critical environmental resources, the efficient use of these resources, and intergenerational equity through good governance. It observed that the impacts of climate change fall disproportionately on developing countries—those least responsible for causing the problem—including India. These climate change impacts adversely affect precipitation patterns, ecosystems, agricultural potential, forests, and water resources while also increasing disease vectors (MOEF 2006, p. 42). In response, the policy emphasized the need to identify the country’s key vulnerabilities to climate change 25 Between 2014 and 2016, methane emissions from anaerobic decomposition of soil organic material in flooded rice paddies declined by 2.1 percent following a reduction in area under rice cultivation. Of the total land under rice cultivation, 33.19 percent is drought prone, 16.44 percent uses single aeration, 15.89 percent is under continuous flooding, 13.02 percent is upland, 12.42 percent uses multiple aeration, 5.90 percent is flood prone, and 3.15 percent falls under the deep-water rice system (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 167) 26 GHG emissions from soils declined by 3.41 percent during 2014–2016 following a decline in the use of synthetic fertilizer-based nitrogen (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 168). 27 The carbon stock in India’s forests was estimated at 7,124.6 million tons in 2019, an increase of 42.6 million tons compared to the previous assessment in 2017. However, forest cover loss occurred in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and Meghalaya, while forest cover gains occurred primarily in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 252). 31 impacts—particularly in water, coastal areas, agriculture, and health—and to assess the need and scope for climate adaptation in these sectors. In 2008, the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) recognized that the Indian economy is “closely tied to its natural resource base and climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and forestry.” The NACPP contained eight separate missions, with one devoted exclusively to promoting sustainability in agriculture: the National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA). In addition, four other missions were geared toward climate adaptation that supported CSA: the Solar Mission, Mission on Sustainable Habitat, Mission on Water Use Efficiency, and Mission for Safeguarding Himalayan Glaciers and Mountain Ecosystems. Closely related to sustainable agriculture under the NAPCC is the National Water Mission, which promotes integrated water resource management to conserve water, minimize wastage, and ensure equitable distribution across users. The NMSA, launched under the 2008 NAPCC and implemented beginning in 2014–2015, aimed to make Indian agriculture more resilient to climate change through various schemes on irrigation water management and conservation, crop productivity in rainfed areas, and soil health management. Its Rainfed Area Development program, promoted a cluster approach and was implemented “across all States and UTs except Punjab and Goa” (India MoEFCC 2021, p. 102). Four years into its implementation, the NMSA was brought under the umbrella scheme of the Green Revolution–Krishonnati Yojana in 2018–2019 and subsequently