What do we know about THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS W hat do w e know about TH E FU TU R E O F FO O D SY S TE M S? ? Edited by Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor W ieb e and G o to r What do we know about THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS? Edited by Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor © 2025 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). This publication is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). Subject to attribution, you are free to share (copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format), adapt (remix, transform, and build upon the material) for any purpose, even commercially. Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 Recommended citation: Wiebe, K., and E. Gotor, eds. 2025. What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems? Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. 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International Food Policy Research Institute 1201 Eye Street, NW, 12th floor Washington, DC 20005 USA Telephone: +1-202-862-5600 www.ifpri.org Cover photo: Ricky Martin/CIFOR Cover design and book layout: Jason Chow and Amit Bisht https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 http://www.ifpri.org TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS vi Chap ter 1  WHAT ARE FOOD SYSTEMS AND WHAT CAN WE KNOW ABOUT THEIR FUTURE? 1 Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) and Elisabetta Gotor (Bioversity International) WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS DRIVERS AND IMPACTS? 7 Chap ter 2  POVERTY 8 Karl Pauw (IFPRI), Paul Dorosh (IFPRI), Wenqian Xu (IFPRI), and Jean Balié (CGIAR) Chap ter 3  DIETS AND NUTRITION 13 Timothy B. Sulser (IFPRI), Marie Ruel (IFPRI), and Shakuntala H. Thilsted (CGIAR) Chap ter 4  GENDER 22 Elizabeth Bryan (IFPRI), Marilia Magalhaes (IFPRI), Ranjitha Puskur (IRRI), Nicoline de Haan (CGIAR), Els Lecoutere (CGIAR), and Hazel Malapit (IFPRI) Chap ter 5  ENVIRONMENT 28 Elisabetta Gotor (Bioversity International) and Cargele Masso (CGIAR) Chap ter 6  CLIMATE 34 Timothy Thomas (IFPRI) and Aditi Mukherji (CGIAR) Chap ter 7  AGROBIODIVERSITY 41 Nicola Cenacchi (IFPRI), Elisabetta Gotor (Bioversity International), Athanasios Petsakos (Bioversity International), and Benjamin Schiek (CIAT) Chap ter 8  CROP PESTS AND DISEASES 45 Athanasios Petsakos (Bioversity International), Carlo Montes (Bioversity International), Diego Pequeno (CIMMYT), Benjamin Schiek (CIAT), and Kai Sonder (CIMMYT) Chap ter 9  LAND 50 Ricky Robertson (IFPRI), Nicola Cenacchi (IFPRI), and Abhijeet Mishra (IFPRI) Chap ter 10  WATER 54 Claudia Ringler (IFPRI), Matthew McCartney (IWMI), and Mohsin Hafeez (IWMI) Chap ter 11  ENERGY 60 Channing Arndt (Purdue University) Chap ter 12  INNOVATION 64 Daniel Mason-D’Croz (Cornell University), Mario Herrero (Cornell University), Cody Kugler (Independent), Rosaline Remans (Bioversity International), Philip Thornton (ILRI, Cornell University, Clim-Eat, and University of Edinburgh), and Heather Zornetzer (Bioversity International) Chap ter 13  TRADE 73 Joseph Glauber (IFPRI) and Sherwin Gabriel (IFPRI) Chap ter 14  URBANIZATION 81 Paul Dorosh (IFPRI) and James Thurlow (IFPRI) Chap ter 15  EL NIÑO 85 Jawoo Koo (IFPRI) and Weston Anderson (University of Maryland) Chap ter 16  FOOD ASSISTANCE 91 Steven Were Omamo (IFPRI) WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS IN SELECTED REGIONS? 97 Chap ter 17  WEST AND CENTRAL AFRICA 98 Dolapo Enahoro (ILRI), Charles Mensah (University of Ghana), and Sika Gbegbelegbe (IITA) Chap ter 18  EAST AND SOUTHERN AFRICA 103 Kindie Tesfaye Fantaye (AGRA), Faaiqa Hartley (IFPRI), Timothy Thomas (IFPRI), Sika Gbegbelegbe (IITA), and Sherwin Gabriel (IFPRI) Chap ter 19  CENTRAL AND WEST ASIA AND NORTH AFRICA 109 Aymen Frija (ICARDA) Chap ter 20  SOUTH ASIA 115 Swamikannu Nedumaran (ICRISAT), Judy Thomas (ICRISAT), Ravi Nandi (CIMMYT), Jyosthnaa Padmanabhan (ICRISAT), and Victor Afari-Sefa (ICRISAT) Chap ter 21  SOUTHEAST ASIA 121 Nhuong Tran (HSB-VNU and ANU), Harold Glenn Valera (BSP), Chin Yee Chan (WorldFish), Valerien Olivier Pede (IRRI), Yee Mon Aung (Yezin Agricultural University), and Ronald Jeremy Antonio (BSP) Chap ter 22  LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN 125 Valeria Piñeiro (IFPRI), Guy Hareau (CIP), and Robert Andrade (CIAT) WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS IN SELECTED COUNTRIES? 133 Chap ter 23  ARGENTINA, BRAZIL, PARAGUAY, AND URUGUAY 134 Nicolas Jorge (Bolsa de Cereales), Silvia Kanadani Campos (Embrapa), Juan Pablo Gianatiempo (IFPRI), Vanessa da Fonseca Pereira (MAPA and Embrapa), and Valeria Piñeiro (IFPRI) Chap ter 24  CHINA 139 Xinru Han (IAED, CAAS), Xiangdong Hu (IAED, CAAS), and Kevin Chen (IFPRI and Zhejiang University) Chap ter 25  INDIA 145 Sedithippa Janarthanan Balaji (ICAR-NIAP), Pratap S. Birthal (ICAR-NIAP), and Barun Deb Pal (IFPRI) Chap ter 26  INDONESIA 151 Erizal Jamal (BRIN), Sahara Sahara (IPB University), Syahid Izzulhaq (ANU), Syarifah Amaliah (IPB University), Fahmi Salam Ahmad (IPB University), Komalawati Komalawati (BRIN), Pihri Buhaerah (BRIN), Ifan Martino (Bappenas), Wulan Metafurry (Bappenas), Dadang Jainal Mutaqin (Bappenas), Irfan Thofiq Firdaus (Bappenas), Dewi Setyawati (IPB University), Angga Pradesha (IFPRI), Vivi Yulaswati (Bappenas), Irfan Syauqi Beik (IPB University), Irwanda Wisnu Wardhana (BRIN), Jarot Indarto (Bappenas), Agus Eko Nugroho (BRIN), Bustanul Arifin (UNILA), and Tahlim Sudaryanto (BRIN and APPERTANI) Chap ter 27  SOUTH AFRICA 159 Ferdi Meyer (BFAP and University of Stellenbosch), Louw Pienaar (BFAP and University of Stellenbosch), Tracy Davids (BFAP and University of Stellenbosch), and Mmatlou Kalaba (BFAP and University of Stellenbosch) WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF SELECTED FOOD COMMODITIES? 165 Chap ter 28  ANIMAL-SOURCE FOODS 166 Dolapo Enahoro (ILRI), Daniel Mason-D’Croz (Cornell University), Mario Herrero (Cornell University), Charles Mensah (University of Ghana), and Isabelle Baltenweck (ILRI) Chap ter 29  AQUATIC FOODS 172 Chin Yee Chan (WorldFish), Nhuong Tran (HSB-VNU and ANU), Yan Hoong (S&P Global), Timothy B. Sulser (IFPRI), and Yee Mon Aung (Yezin Agricultural University) Chap ter 30  MAIZE 177 Kindie Tesfaye Fantaye (AGRA), Kai Sonder (CIMMYT), Diego Pequeno (CIMMYT), Faaiqa Hartley (IFPRI), and Sika Gbegbelegbe (IITA) Chap ter 31  PULSES 183 Sika Gbegbelegbe (IITA), Wupe Msukwa (IITA), Swamikannu Nedumaran (ICRISAT), and Arega Alene (IITA) Chap ter 32  RICE 191 Harold Glenn Valera (BSP), Valerien Olivier Pede (IRRI), and Ronald Jeremy Antonio (BSP) Chap ter 33  ROOTS, TUBERS, AND BANANAS 196 Evelyne Kihiu (CIP), Guy Hareau (CIP), Sika Gbegbelegbe (IITA), Robert Andrade (CIAT), Athanasios Petsakos (Bioversity International), and Arega Alene (IITA) Chap ter 34  WHEAT 201 Gideon Kruseman (Kruseman Consultancy), Kai Sonder (CIMMYT), Diego Pequeno (CIMMYT), Matthew Reynolds (CIMMYT), and Aymen Frija (ICARDA) WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF FORESIGHT DATA AND ANALYTICAL TOOLS? 209 Chap ter 35  MEASURING FOOD SYSTEMS 210 Jessica Fanzo (Columbia University), Bianca Carducci (Columbia University), and Michael Puma (Columbia University and NASA) Chap ter 36  PROJECTIONS FROM THE IMPACT MODEL 216 Nicola Cenacchi (IFPRI), Timothy B. Sulser (IFPRI), and Abhijeet Mishra (IFPRI) Chap ter 37  FORESIGHT MODELING 223 Keith Wiebe (IFPRI), Aline Mosnier (FABLE, SDSN), Daniel Mason-D’Croz (Cornell University), Athanasios Petsakos (Bioversity International), Johannes Svensson (BC3, IDDRI), and Monika Zurek (University of Oxford) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This book was prepared under the leadership of Keith Wiebe and Elisabetta Gotor. Chapters were written by Victor Afari-Sefa, Fahmi Salam Ahmad, Arega Alene, Syarifah Amaliah, Weston Anderson, Robert Andrade, Ronald Jeremy Antonio, Bustanul Arifin, Channing Arndt, Yee Mon Aung, Jean Balié, Isabelle Baltenweck, Irfan Syauqi Beik, Pratap S. Birthal, Elizabeth Bryan, Pihri Buhaerah, Silvia Kanadani Campos, Bianca Carducci, Nicola Cenacchi, Chin Yee Chan, Kevin Chen, Tracy Davids, Barun Deb Pal, Nicoline de Haan, Paul Dorosh, Dolapo Enahoro, Jessica Fanzo, Irfan Thofiq Firdaus, Aymen Frija, Sherwin Gabriel, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, Joseph Glauber, Elisabetta Gotor, Mohsin Hafeez, Xinru Han, Guy Hareau, Faaiqa Hartley, Mario Herrero, Yan Hoong, Xiangdong Hu, Jarot Indarto, Syahid Izzulhaq, Erizal Jamal, Nicolas Jorge, Mmatlou Kalaba, Evelyne Kihiu, Komalawati Komalawati, Jawoo Koo, Gideon Kruseman, Cody Kugler, Els Lecoutere, Marilia Magalhaes, Hazel Malapit, Ifan Martino, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Cargele Masso, Matthew McCartney, Charles Mensah, Wulan Metafurry, Ferdi Meyer, Abhijeet Mishra, Carlo Montes, Aline Mosnier, Wupe Msukwa, Aditi Mukherji, Dadang Jainal Mutaqin, Ravi Nandi, Swamikannu Nedumaran, Agus Eko Nugroho, Steven Were Omamo, Jyosthnaa Padmanabhan, Karl Pauw, Valerien Olivier Pede, Diego Pequeno, Vanessa da Fonseca Pereira, Athanasios Petsakos, Louw Pienaar, Valeria Piñeiro, Angga Pradesha, Michael Puma, Ranjitha Puskur, Roseline Remans, Matthew Reynolds, Claudia Ringler, Ricky Robertson, Marie Ruel, Sahara Sahara, Benjamin Schiek, Sedithippa Janarthanan Balaji, Dewa Setyawati, Kai Sonder, Tahlim Sudaryanto, Timothy B. Sulser, Johannes Svensson, Kindie Tesfaye Fantaye, Shakuntala H. Thilsted, Judy Thomas, Timothy Thomas, Philip Thornton, James Thurlow, Nhuong Tran, Harold Glenn Valera, Irwanda Wisnu Wardhana, Keith Wiebe, Wenqian Xu, Vivi Yulaswati, Heather Zornetzer, and Monika Zurek. Earlier versions of Chapters 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 12, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 29, 30, 31, 32, and 34 were originally posted online at https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/news/foresight-init-what-do-we-know-about-series/. We are grateful for the skillful and efficient contributions of the editorial and production team, led by Pamela Stedman- Edwards. Jason Chow was responsible for design and layout. Editorial assistance was provided by Amy Gautam, Evgeniya Anisimova, and Claire Davis. Nicola Cenacchi helped coordinate preparation of figures. Preparation of this book was supported by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight and the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund (www.cgiar.org/funders). v https://www.cgiar.org/news-events/news/foresight-init-what-do-we-know-about-series/ http://www.cgiar.org/funders AUTHORS AND AFFILIATIONS Victor Afari-Sefa (Chapter 20) is Director of the Global Research Program on Enabling Systems Transformation at the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi- Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Fahmi Salam Ahmad (Chapter 26) is a Lecturer in the Department of Economics and Researcher in International Trade Analysis and Policy Studies (ITAPS) in the Faculty of Economics and Management at IPB University, Indonesia. Arega Alene (Chapters 31 and 33) is an Agricultural Economist (Principal Scientist) and Program Leader for Foresight, Impact Assessment, and Scaling at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA). Syarifah Amaliah (Chapter 26) is a Lecturer in the Department of Economics and Researcher in International Trade Analysis and Policy Studies (ITAPS) in the Faculty of Economics and Management at IPB University, Indonesia. Weston Anderson (Chapter 15) is an Assistant Research Professor in the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland, and formerly an Assistant Research Scientist in the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland and the Earth Sciences Division at NASA. Robert Andrade (Chapters 22 and 33) is a Scientist in the Performance, Innovation and Strategic Analysis for Impact Program at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Ronald Jeremy Antonio (Chapters 21 and 32) is a Bank Economist IV in the BSP Department of Economic Research at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in Manila, the Philippines, and formerly an Assistant Scientist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Bustanul Arifin (Chapter 26) is a Professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Lampung (UNILA) and Senior Economist with the Institute for Development Economics and Finance (INDEF), Indonesia. Channing Arndt (Chapter 11) is Director and Research Professor of Global Trade Analysis in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, and for- merly Senior Director of Transformation Strategies at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Yee Mon Aung (Chapters 21 and 29) is a Lecturer at Yezin Agricultural University, Myanmar. Jean Balié (Chapter 2) is Director of the CGIAR Poverty Reduction, Livelihoods and Jobs Impact Platform. Isabelle Baltenweck (Chapter 28) is a Program Leader at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Irfan Syauqi Beik (Chapter 26) is Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Management, IPB University, Indonesia. Pratap S. Birthal (Chapter 25) is Director of the National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). Elizabeth Bryan (Chapter 4) is a Research Fellow in the Natural Resources and Resilience Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Pihri Buhaerah (Chapter 26) is a Senior Researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia. Silvia Kanadani Campos (Chapter 23) is a Researcher at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa). Bianca Carducci (Chapter 35) is a Postdoctoral Scientist in the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University. Nicola Cenacchi (Chapters 7, 9, and 36) is a Senior Research Analyst in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Chin Yee Chan (Chapters 21 and 29) is a Scientist at WorldFish. vi Kevin Chen (Chapter 24) is a Senior Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Qiushi Chair Professor at Zhejiang University, China. Tracy Davids (Chapter 27) is Executive Director of the Bureau for Food and Agriculture Policy (BFAP) and Research Fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa. Barun Deb Pal (Chapter 25) is a Research Coordinator in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Nicoline de Haan (Chapter 4) is Director of the CGIAR Gender Equality and Inclusion Accelerator. Paul Dorosh (Chapters 2 and 14) is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Dolapo Enahoro (Chapters 17 and 28) is a Senior Agricultural Economist at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Jessica Fanzo (Chapter 35) is Professor of Climate and Food and Director of the Food for Humanity Initiative in the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University. Irfan Thofiq Firdaus (Chapter 26) is a Policy Planner at the Ministry of National Development Planning/ Bappenas, Indonesia. Aymen Frija (Chapters 19 and 34) is a Senior Scientist and Agricultural Economist in the Social, Economic, and Policy Research Team at the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). Sherwin Gabriel (Chapters 13 and 18) is a Scientist in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Sika Gbegbelegbe (Chapters 17, 18, 30, 31, and 33) is an Agricultural Economist at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA). Juan Pablo Gianatiempo (Chapter 23) is a Research Analyst in the Markets, Trade and Institutions Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Joseph Glauber (Chapter 13) is a Research Fellow Emeritus at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Elisabetta Gotor (Chapters 1, 5, and 7) is a Principal Scientist and Lead of the Performance, Innovation and Strategic Analysis for Impact Program at Bioversity International. Mohsin Hafeez (Chapter 10) is Strategic Program Director of Water, Food and Ecosystems at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI). Xinru Han (Chapter 24) is a Professor at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development (IAED), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS). Guy Hareau (Chapters 22 and 33) is a Principal Scientist in Social and Nutritional Sciences at the International Potato Center (CIP). Faaiqa Hartley (Chapters 18 and 30) is a Scientist in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Mario Herrero (Chapters 12 and 28) is Professor, Cornell Atkinson Scholar, and Nancy and Peter Meinig Family Investigator in the Life Sciences in the Department of Global Development at Cornell University. Yan Hoong (Chapter 29) is an Economist at S&P Global, and formerly a Research Analyst at WorldFish. Xiangdong Hu (Chapter 24) is Director General and a Professor at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS). Jarot Indarto (Chapter 26) is Director of Food and Agriculture at the Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas, Indonesia. Syahid Izzulhaq (Chapter 26) is a Postgraduate Student in the Research School of Economics, College of Business and Economics at The Australian National University. Erizal Jamal (Chapter 26) is a Senior Agricultural Economist at the Research Center for Cooperatives, Corporations, and People’s Economy, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia. vii Nicolas Jorge (Chapter 23) is an Economist at Bolsa de Cereales, Argentina. Mmatlou Kalaba (Chapter 27) is Research Director of the Bureau for Food and Agriculture Policy (BFAP) and Research Fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa. Evelyne Kihiu (Chapter 33) is an Agricultural Economist in Social and Nutritional Sciences at the International Potato Center (CIP). Komalawati Komalawati (Chapter 26) is a Senior Researcher at the Research Center for Cooperatives, Corporations, and People’s Economy, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia. Jawoo Koo (Chapter 15) is a Senior Research Fellow in the Natural Resources and Resilience Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Gideon Kruseman (Chapter 34) is Founder of Kruseman Foresight and Metrics Consultancy. Cody Kugler (Chapter 12) is an independent agrifood innovation and sustainability consultant. Els Lecoutere (Chapter 4) is a Science Officer at the CGIAR Gender Equality and Inclusion Accelerator. Marilia Magalhaes (Chapter 4) is a Senior Research Analyst in the Natural Resources and Resilience Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Hazel Malapit (Chapter 4) is a Senior Research Coordinator in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Ifan Martino (Chapter 26) is Coordinator for Food at the Ministry of National Development Planning/ Bappenas, Indonesia. Daniel Mason-D’Croz (Chapters 12, 28, and 37) is a Senior Research Associate in the Department of Global Development at Cornell University and a PhD Candidate with the Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group at Wageningen University and Research. Cargele Masso (Chapter 5) is with CGIAR, based at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya. Matthew McCartney (Chapter 10) is Research Group Leader in Sustainable Water Infrastructure and Ecosystems at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI). Charles Mensah (Chapters 17 and 28) is a PhD stu- dent in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Ghana, and formerly a Research Officer at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Wulan Metafurry (Chapter 26) is a Policy Planner at the Ministry of National Development Planning/ Bappenas, Indonesia. Ferdi Meyer (Chapter 27) is Managing Director of the Bureau for Food and Agriculture Policy (BFAP) and Professor Extraordinary in the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa. Abhijeet Mishra (Chapters 9 and 36) is an Associate Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Carlo Montes (Chapter 8) is a Climate Scientist in Climate Action at Bioversity International. Aline Mosnier (Chapter 37) is Scientific Director of the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, and Energy (FABLE) Pathways Consortium and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Wupe Msukwa (Chapter 31) is a Research Associate at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA). Aditi Mukherji (Chapter 6) is Director of the CGIAR Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Platform. Dadang Jainal Mutaqin (Chapter 26) is Director of Forestry and Water Resource Conservation at the Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas, Indonesia. Ravi Nandi (Chapter 20) is an Innovation Systems Scientist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Bangladesh. viii Swamikannu Nedumaran (Chapters 20 and 31) is a Principal Agricultural Economist in the Global Research Program on Enabling Systems Transformation at the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Agus Eko Nugroho (Chapter 26) is Chairman of the Research Organization for Governance, Economy and Community Welfare at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia. Steven Were Omamo (Chapter 16) is Director of the Development Strategies and Governance Unit and Director for Africa at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Jyosthnaa Padmanabhan (Chapter 20) is an Associate Scientist at the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Karl Pauw (Chapter 2) is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Valerien Olivier Pede (Chapters 21 and 32) is a Senior Agricultural Economist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Diego Pequeno (Chapters 8, 30, and 34) is a Scientist and Wheat Crop Modeler in the Sustainable Agrifood Systems Program at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Vanessa da Fonseca Pereira (Chapter 23) is an Analyst at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) and is currently serving in the Office of the Minister at the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA), Brazil. Athanasios Petsakos (Chapters 7, 8, 33, and 37) is a Scientist in the Performance, Innovation and Strategic Analysis for Impact Program at Bioversity International. Louw Pienaar (Chapter 27) is a Senior Analyst at the Bureau for Food and Agriculture Policy (BFAP) and Research Fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa. Valeria Piñeiro (Chapters 22 and 23) is Regional Representative for Latin America and the Caribbean and Senior Research Coordinator in the Markets, Trade and Institutions Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Angga Pradesha (Chapter 26) is a Senior Scientist in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Michael Puma (Chapter 35) is Professor of Climate in the Columbia Climate School and Unit Director of the Center for Climate Systems Research at Columbia University and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Ranjitha Puskur (Chapter 4) is a Principal Scientist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Roseline Remans (Chapter 12) is an Honorary Research Fellow at Bioversity International. Matthew Reynolds (Chapter 34) is Head of the Wheat Physiology Group at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Claudia Ringler (Chapter 10) is Director of the Natural Resources and Resilience Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Ricky Robertson (Chapter 9) is a Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Marie Ruel (Chapter 3) is a Senior Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets and Health Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Sahara Sahara (Chapter 26) is a Professor in the Department of Economics and Director of International Trade Analysis and Policy Studies (ITAPS) in the Faculty of Economics and Management at IPB University, Indonesia. Benjamin Schiek (Chapters 7 and 8) is a Senior Research Associate in the Performance, Innovation and Strategic Analysis for Impact Program at CIAT. Sedithippa Janarthanan Balaji (Chapter 25) is a Scientist in the National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research at the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). ix Dewa Setyawati (Chapter 26) is a Researcher in International Trade Analysis and Policy Studies (ITAPS) in the Faculty of Economics and Management at IPB University, Indonesia. Kai Sonder (Chapters 8, 30, and 34) is Head of the Geographic Information System Unit in the Sustainable Agrifood Systems Program at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Tahlim Sudaryanto (Chapter 26) is a Senior Agricultural Economist at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) and Indonesian Agriculture Research Alliance (APPERTANI), Indonesia. Timothy B. Sulser (Chapters 3, 29, and 36) is a Senior Scientist in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Johannes Svensson (Chapter 37) is a Technical Manager of Research on Terrestrial Ecosystems and the Governance of Land Use Transitions at the Basque Center for Climate Change (BC3), and an associated researcher at the Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales (IDDRI). Kindie Tesfaye Fantaye (Chapters 18 and 30) is Head of Climate Adaptation and Resilience at AGRA, and formerly a Principal Scientist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Shakuntala H. Thilsted (Chapter 3) is Director of the CGIAR Nutrition Impact Platform. Judy Thomas (Chapter 20) is a Research Fellow at the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). Timothy Thomas (Chapters 6 and 18) is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Philip Thornton (Chapter 12) is an Emeritus Fellow at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), a visiting professor at Cornell University, a Research and Innovation Strategist with Clim-Eat, and an Honorary Professor in the School of Geosciences at the University of Edinburgh. James Thurlow (Chapter 14) is Director of the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Nhuong Tran (Chapters 21 and 29) is a Senior Researcher and Lecturer at Hanoi School of Business and Management, Vietnam National University (HSB-VNU), and Honorary Associate Professor in the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University (ANU), and formerly an Applied Economic Senior Scientist at WorldFish. Harold Glenn Valera (Chapters 21 and 32) is a Principal Researcher in the BSP Research Academy at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas in Manila, The Philippines, and for- merly a Scientist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Irwanda Wisnu Wardhana (Chapter 26) is Director of the Research Center for Cooperatives, Corporations and People’s Economy at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Indonesia. Keith Wiebe (Chapters 1 and 37) is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Wenqian Xu (Chapter 2) is a Research Analyst in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Vivi Yulaswati (Chapter 26) is Deputy Minister for Economy and Digital Transformation at the Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas, Indonesia. Heather Zornetzer (Chapter 12) is Coordinator of the Innovative Food System Solutions (IFSS) Portal at Bioversity International. Monika Zurek (Chapter 37) is a titular associate profes- sor and lead of the Food System Transformation Group at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford. x What do we know about THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS? What do we know about THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS? Introduction: WHAT ARE FOOD SYSTEMS AND WHAT CAN WE KNOW ABOUT THEIR FUTURE? Keith Wiebe (IFPRI) and Elisabetta Gotor (Bioversity International) Key messages • Food systems are made up of the people, resources, and activities involved in the production, processing, distribution, and consump- tion of food. • We cannot know the future of food systems with certainty, but we can make informed projections about alternative possible futures and ways to achieve (or avoid) them. • This book provides a mosaic of perspectives from a diverse group of experts on the state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems and how they are interlinked. • Pressure on land and water resources is projected to increase, extreme events will become more frequent, and healthy diets will remain out of reach for many, but innovation and improved policies and investments can help address these challenges. • Synergies and trade-offs between these different challenges and goals mean that they need to be understood and addressed as inte- grated parts of dynamic food systems. CHAP TER 1 1 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 WHAT ARE FOOD SYSTEMS (AND WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT THEM)? After air and water, food is our most basic need. Yet unlike air and water, food also forms an essential part of our identities as families and communities. Food production is the world’s largest use of water and land (FAO 2024, 2025; Ritchie and Roser 2019). Until recently, agriculture was also the world’s largest source of employment. Today, a quarter of the world’s labor force still works in agricul- ture, with an even greater proportion in low- and middle- income countries (Roser 2023). But food involves much more than production and con- sumption. The tremendous growth in variety, abundance, and year-round availability of food that we have experi- enced in recent decades has been enabled by related growth in the supply chains that link producers to con- sumers, including processing, storage, transportation, and marketing. This wider set of essential and closely con- nected activities makes up our food system (Erickson et al. 2010; Ingram 2011; HLPE 2014, 2017; Food Systems Dashboard 2025). These activities are in turn related to energy, innovation, technology, roads, and many other domains, so in a sense, food systems are all-encompassing. Instead of consider- ing a single food system, it can be useful to think of multi- ple interconnected food (or agrifood) systems operating at different scales, just as local markets are connected to a larger global market, and local internet service providers are part of a larger worldwide web. While the boundar- ies of these various food systems may be difficult to delin- eate, it is not necessary to define food systems precisely to appreciate their importance. Indeed, it is estimated that nearly half the world’s people live in households that depend at least partly on agrifood systems for their liveli- hoods (Davis et al. 2023), and all 8 billion of us are part of food systems as consumers. Food systems have achieved remarkable progress in recent decades, but they will also face significant chal- lenges in delivering the many outputs and services we expect and need from them in the future (ISDC 2023). For example, progress in reducing hunger has slowed and even reversed in recent years, while the incidence of micronutrient deficiencies and obesity is rising (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, and WHO 2024). Pressure on land, water, biological, and atmospheric resources is increasing (FAO 2017; IPCC 2023). Meanwhile, despite the fundamen- tal importance of food systems, those who earn their liv- ing from food production often earn much less than those in other economic sectors (World Bank 2025). Looking ahead, the Independent Science for Development Council identifies nine major trends that will continue to affect agrifood systems: demographic trends, changing con- sumption patterns, market concentration, climate change, environmental degradation, shifting global health chal- lenges, geopolitical instability, growing inequalities, and new technologies and innovations (ISDC 2023). These interrelated challenges mean that to consider the future of food, we need to look beyond food production to the wider set of activities that bring food to our tables and beyond food consumption to the wider set of impacts and outcomes for people and planet that characterize the performance of those activities. We need to look at food systems. WHAT CAN WE KNOW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS? Strictly speaking, nothing. Without a crystal ball, we can- not know the future with certainty. But decisions that will affect the future of food systems still need to be made today, and there are insights we can offer with confidence to help guide those decisions. First, we can draw on experience and understanding of the past and present to make reasoned inferences about the future. This may involve a variety of foresight approaches. Since the dawn of agriculture, farmers (such as the family of 3-year-old Rosita on the cover of this book) have had to make decisions about when and where to plant their crops without knowing what weather and mar- ket conditions would be like during the weeks and months before harvest time. Instead, they have drawn on their experience and expectations as a guide. When we con- sider the future of larger and more complex food systems in a world that is becoming more uncertain, more com- plex foresight methods are needed, including quantitative tools such as statistical analysis and simulation modeling (see Chapter 37 on foresight modeling). 2 Second, the future depends partly on choices we — as individuals and society — have not yet made. This pres- ents an opportunity but also a challenge. The opportu- nity is that we have the chance to inform those choices through analysis and engagement with public and private decision-makers and other stakeholders. The challenge is that the interacting processes that make up food systems are extremely complex, and the goals of decision-makers and other stakeholders are extremely diverse (and some- times conflicting). By combining sophisticated quantitative analysis of food systems and qualitative engagement processes with stakeholders, we can identify and explore the likely impacts of alternative future scenarios based on alterna- tive development pathways and external factors, and use the resulting insights to inform the decisions we make about food systems today. So, although we cannot know the future of food systems with certainty, we do know something about possible futures of food systems, and what we can do to help achieve (or avoid) them. That is the subject of this book. THIS BOOK This book presents a collection of short chapters on the current state of knowledge about different aspects of the future of food systems, written by a diverse group of sci- entists with experience and expertise in a wide range of related topics, disciplines, and regions. The 109 contrib- utors come from across CGIAR and many other partner research institutions around the world. This collection was begun as part of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight during the 2022–2024 period and completed as part of the ongoing area of work on foresight and prioritization under the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations. Each chapter examines a particular aspect of food sys- tems, using a standard format to concisely describe recent trends and challenges that highlight the impor- tance of the topic, summarize the latest available foresight research on that topic, and identify key gaps in exist- ing foresight research that merit further attention in the future. These chapters are intended as brief and acces- sible overviews of the latest foresight research on each topic, guides to help readers find more detailed infor- mation if desired, and indications of where our current knowledge of future trends needs to be improved. The collection includes 15 chapters focused on major drivers and impacts of change in food systems, 11 chap- ters that provide regional and national perspectives on the future of food systems, 7 chapters on the future of major food commodities, and 3 chapters on food systems measurement and modeling tools. Even with this diverse set of contributions, the picture remains incomplete. Given the complexity of food sys- tems, it is impossible to characterize them fully. Some top- ics are missing, and others could easily be developed in much greater detail. We look forward to adding topics that are missing from this collection (such as demograph- ics and genetic resources) and to developing aspects of included chapters that merit expansion. In a world of complexity and uncertainty, the goal of this book — and the purpose of foresight analysis, more gen- erally — is not to predict the future with precision, but rather to carefully consider and present what can be known about possible future pathways in order to inform choices today. KEY INSIGHTS The picture that emerges from this collection highlights the continuing challenges that food systems will confront in the coming decades. Poverty will become more geo- graphically concentrated (Chapter 2), healthy diets will remain out of reach for many (Chapter 3), inequalties will persist (Chapters 4 and 14), pressure on land, water, and other resources will increase (Chapters 5 and 7–10), and extreme events will become more frequent (Chapters 6 and 15). Regional and commodity perspectives (Chapters 17–22 and 28–34) illustrate the diversity of challenges, including continued population growth in Africa (ver- sus slowing growth or population declines elsewhere), projected increases in dependence on food imports in low-income countries, and rapid growth in demand for animal-source foods from middle-income populations. They also illustrate commonalities, including rising health concerns associated with overweight and obesity in most regions. The collection also highlights the importance of interac- tions — including both synergies and trade-offs — across the many dimensions of food systems, including between drivers of change, regions, commodities, and time 3 periods, as well as among the many outcomes that food systems deliver. For example, improving access to mar- kets may reduce costs for both producers and consum- ers, but it may also increase pressure on land and water resources. This does not mean that one goal is necessar- ily more important than another, just that care is needed to understand the multiple consequences (including the unintended ones) of different food systems pathways in order to make better-informed decisions and minimize their costs. The collection also highlights opportunities to address these challenges, including rapid growth in renewable energy (Chapter 11); the critical importance of innova- tion more generally (Chapter 12), along with its potential to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and lessen trade-offs across multiple goals and interests; and the importance of trade (Chapter 13) and food assistance (Chapter 16) in helping to offset local and regional impacts of con- flict and weather shocks. Insights from various countries (Chapters 23–27) show how foresight analysis is already informing food systems policies and investment strate- gies around the world. Finally, continuous improvements are being made in the data and analytical tools needed (Chapters 35–37) to explore alternative food systems futures, identify challenges and solutions, weigh trade- offs, and inform the choices we face today. This chapter was supported by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight and the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. The authors of this chapter are Keith Wiebe, a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); and Elisabetta Gotor, a Principal Scientist and Lead of the Performance, Innovation and Strategic Analysis for Impact Program at Bioversity International. Related chapters on the future of food system drivers and impacts, regional and national perspectives, food commodities, and foresight tools are available in our Table of Contents. Citation: Wiebe, K., and E. Gotor. 2025. “Introduction: What Are Food Systems and What Can We Know About Their Future?” In What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems?, eds. K. Wiebe and E. Gotor, Chapter 1. Washington, DC: IFPRI. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 Photo credit: Ricky Martin/CIFOR 4 http://www.cgiar.org/funders https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE A world free of hunger and malnutrition IFPRI is a CGIAR Research Center 1201 Eye St, NW, Washington, DC 20005 USA  |  T. +1-202-862-5600  |  F. +1-202-862-5606  |  Email: ifpri@cgiar.org  |  www.ifpri.org  |  www.ifpri.info Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 © 2025 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). This publication is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). References Davis, B., E. Mane, L.Y. Gurbuzer et al. 2023.” Estimating Global and Country-Level Employment in Agrifood Systems.” FAO Statistics Working Paper Series, No. 23-34. Rome, FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc4337en Ericksen, P.J., B. Stewart, J. Dixon, D. Barling, P. Loring, M. Anderson, and J. Ingram. 2010. “The Value of a Food System Approach.” In Food Security and Global Environmental Change, eds. J. Ingram, P. Ericksen, and D. Liverman, 25–45. London: Earthscan. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2017. The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges. Rome. https://www.fao.org/ global-perspectives-studies/fofa/en/ FAO. 2024. World Food and Agriculture – Statistical Yearbook 2024. Rome. https://openknowledge.fao.org/ handle/20.500.14283/cd2971en FAO, IFAD (International Fund for Agricultural Development), UNICEF, WFP (World Food Programme), and WHO (World Health Organization). 2024. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2024 – Financing to End Hunger, Food Insecurity and Malnutrition in All Its Forms. Rome: FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cd1254en FAO, OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), and World Bank. 2025. “Agricultural Water as a Share of Total Water Withdrawals.” Our World in Data dataset. Accessed June 16, 2025. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agricultural-water- as-a-share-of-total-water-withdrawals Food Systems Dashboard. 2025. “About Food Systems.” Accessed May 20, 2025. https://www.foodsystemsdashboard.org/ information/about-food-systems HLPE (High Level Panel of Experts). 2014. Food Losses and Waste in the Context of Sustainable Food Systems: A Report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security. Rome. https://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe/ publications/hlpe-8 HLPE. 2017. Nutrition and Food Systems. A Report by the High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security. Rome. https://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe/publications/ hlpe-12 ISDC (Independent Science for Development Council). 2023. Responding to Evolving Megatrends. Rome: CGIAR Independent Advisory and Evaluation Service. https://iaes.cgiar.org/isdc/publications/responding- evolving-megatrends Ingram, J. 2011. “A Food Systems Approach to Researching Food Security and Its Interactions with Global Environmental Change.” Food Security 3: 417–431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-011-0149-9 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2023. “Summary for Policymakers.” In Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, ed. H. Lee, 1–34. Geneva: IPCC. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/ AR6-9789291691647.001 Ritchie, H., and M. Roser. 2019. “Land Use.” Our World in Data. Accessed June 16, 2025. https://ourworldindata.org/land-use Roser, M., 2023. “Employment in Agriculture.” Our World in Data. Accessed June 16, 2025. https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture World Bank and OECD. “Agriculture Value Added per Worker vs. GDP per Capita, 2022.” Our World in Data dataset. Accessed June 17, 2025. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-value- added-per-worker-vs-gdp-per-capita?time=2022 5 mailto:ifpri%40cgiar.org?subject= http://www.ifpri.org http://www.ifpri.info https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.4060/cc4337en https://www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/fofa/en/ https://www.fao.org/global-perspectives-studies/fofa/en/ https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cd2971en https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/cd2971en https://doi.org/10.4060/cd1254en https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agricultural-water-as-a-share-of-total-water-withdrawals https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agricultural-water-as-a-share-of-total-water-withdrawals https://www.foodsystemsdashboard.org/information/about-food-systems https://www.foodsystemsdashboard.org/information/about-food-systems https://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe/publications/hlpe-8 https://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe/publications/hlpe-8 https://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe/publications/hlpe-12 https://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe/publications/hlpe-12 https://iaes.cgiar.org/isdc/publications/responding-evolving-megatrends https://iaes.cgiar.org/isdc/publications/responding-evolving-megatrends https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-011-0149-9 https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001 https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001 https://ourworldindata.org/land-use https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-value-added-per-worker-vs-gdp-per-capita?time=2022 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-value-added-per-worker-vs-gdp-per-capita?time=2022 What do we know about THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS DRIVERS AND IMPACTS? What do we know about THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS? What do we know about THE FUTURE OF POVERTY IN RELATION TO FOOD SYSTEMS? Karl Pauw (IFPRI), Paul Dorosh (IFPRI), Wenqian Xu (IFPRI), and Jean Balié (CGIAR) Key messages • The global poverty headcount rate declined rapidly over the past 25 years, from around 30 percent to 8.5 percent today, but a series of global crises caused the pace of poverty reduction to slow down from 2020 onward. Some regions have done well; for instance, the East Asia and Pacific region has now effectively eliminated extreme poverty, a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), while extreme pov- erty in South Asia is expected to be eradicated by 2030. But with almost no further reduction in the extreme poverty rate in sub- Saharan Africa until 2030, the number of poor people in this region will increase by 10 percent to reach 500 million. This means that by 2030, around 80 percent of the world’s poor people will live in sub- Saharan Africa. • Poverty and food systems are closely intertwined. Both theory and evidence support the notion that investments in food systems that reduce food prices or create food systems jobs will be highly effec- tive at reducing poverty, and likely more so than investments out- side of the food system, especially during the earlier stages of a country’s development. With respect to investments within food sys- tems, since the majority of the world’s extreme poor are engaged in farming, investments in the on-farm part of food systems are likewise more effective at reducing extreme poverty than off-farm investments, such as in processing, distribution, and food services. However, rural-urban migration and structural shifts in employment into off-farm jobs, combined with growing demand for processed foods from retail or food service outlets, will gradually increase the poverty-reducing impacts of off-farm investments. Foresight analysis CHAP TER 2 8 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 What do we know about THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS? RECENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES Although poverty is a complex, multifaceted phenome- non, it can be broadly defined as the lack of basic capacity to maintain a minimum standard of living and participate effectively in society. Important strides have been made in the fight against poverty over the past 25 years. As shown in Figure 1, the global poverty headcount rate — measured at the World Bank’s “extreme” poverty line of US$2.15 per day (2017 PPP prices) — fell from 30.0 percent to 8.5 percent between 1999 and 2024, while the number of poor people declined from 1.8 to 0.7 billion — even as the global popu- lation grew from 6.1 to 8.1 billion (World Bank 2024a). Figure 1 also highlights regional disparities in poverty out- comes. South Asia, renowned for successfully transforming can help policymakers anticipate employment and dietary shifts and identify the mix of food systems investments that would maximize their impact on extreme poverty. • Policies and investments designed to facilitate food systems trans- formation may be associated with trade-offs across development outcomes. For instance, while investments in staple crop productiv- ity may be most effective at reducing poverty and calorie availabil- ity, they may not contribute to improving dietary quality or health outcomes, which are also important SDGs. Likewise, regulations that encourage the adoption of environmentally conscious food produc- tion processes, also central to several of the SDGs, may raise the cost of food, with negative consequences for poverty. At the same time, inaction now to facilitate a transition toward more sustainable food systems will contribute to conflicts, disasters, physical displacement, and adverse health and economic outcomes in the future, the burden of which will fall disproportionately on future generations of poor people. Foresight analysis can help policymakers understand these trade-offs as they consider alternative investment choices and mea- sures to protect vulnerable populations from any adverse impacts. Figure 1  Poverty rates and number of people in poverty, 1999–2024 Source: Authors’ representation based on World Bank (2024a, 2024b). South Asia Rest of the WorldSub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North AfricaLatin America & CaribbeanEast Asia & PacificGlobal 60% 50% 2000 20202010 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 2.0 1.8 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 0 2000 20202010 Poverty headcount rate (%) by region Number of poor (billions) by region 9 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 its agriculture sector during the “Green Revolution” in the 1960s and 1970s (Pingali 2012), saw its poverty rate decline faster than the global average from 1999 to 2024. Poverty in the East Asia and Pacific region was effectively elimi- nated over the same period on the back of the “East Asian Miracle” from 1965 to 1990, a period of rapid structural change and growth led by manufacturing exports (Birdsall et al. 1993). Sub-Saharan Africa experienced its own “African Growth Miracle” in the early 2000s, with economic growth outpacing that in the rest of the world (McMillan, Diao, and Verduzco-Gallo 2014) and a decline in poverty that was evidently much faster than previously thought possible (Sala-i-Martin and Pinkovskiy 2010). Unfortunately, by 2012, poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa slowed down. Today the region is home to almost two-thirds of the world’s poor despite only making up 15 percent of the global population. Several other regions also started experiencing a decline in the rate of poverty reduction from 2020 onward as the COVID-19 pandemic adversely impacted livelihoods (Pauw, Smart, and Thurlow 2021) and the Russia-Ukraine war contributed to rising costs of living (Arndt et al. 2023). LATEST FORESIGHT RESEARCH The World Bank (2024b) projects that poverty in sub- Saharan Africa will decline only marginally, from 8.5 to 7.3 percent during the 2024–2030 period. Regional pov- erty projections by Kharas and Dooley (2022) suggest that South Asia will eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. But in sub-Saharan Africa, with virtually no further reduction in the poverty rate, the number of poor people will expand by about 10 percent to reach 500 million by 2030, or about 80 percent of the global population of poor people. Sub-Saharan Africa should clearly be a key priority in the global fight against poverty in the coming 5 to 10 years. With over 80 percent of the world’s extreme poor living in rural areas and nearly two-thirds of them engaged in primary agriculture (UN 2023), agricultural productivity growth has been found to be especially effective at reduc- ing extreme poverty (Christiaensen, Demery, and Kuhl 2011). Such productivity growth might be associated with land productivity (for example, due to improved soil qual- ity) or labor productivity (for example, the effects of edu- cation combined with the adoption of better technologies or machinery). Agricultural productivity growth has been shown to be relatively more effective at reducing poverty than equivalent-sized productivity gains in industry or ser- vices (Dorosh and Thurlow 2018; Ivanic and Martin 2018), provided product, factor, or credit market failures do not exclude poor farmers from profitable opportunities to grow out of poverty (Dercon 2009). Of course, the bene- fits of agricultural productivity growth are not restricted to farm households. Household food budget shares in low-income South Asian and sub-Saharan African coun- tries average around 40–50 percent (USDA 2023), with even higher shares for poor households within those countries. Since agricultural productivity gains help lower farm output prices, they can contribute significantly to poverty reduction among rural nonfarm and urban house- holds that consume agricultural products. Agricultural productivity growth — or agricultural transfor- mation more broadly — provides the impetus for structural change and rural-urban migration (Johnston and Mellor 1961; Timmer 1988), but the net impact of structural change on growth is not always positive (McMillan, Diao, and Verduzco-Gallo 2014), and may even result in urban slums and rising urban poverty (see Chapter 14). Rural- urban migration is also associated with growing demand for processed and convenience foods from retail or food service outlets as opposed to unprocessed farm produce (Barret et al. 2022), such that the share of food processing, packaging, trade, and transport costs in the overall cost of food rises. These dynamics affect the relative effective- ness of on-farm versus off-farm investments in reducing poverty. In the context of Ethiopia, Dorosh et al. (2020) show that investments in nonagriculture sectors become more important for poverty reduction after approximately 10 years of sustained growth and structural transforma- tion. Dorosh and Thurlow (2018), in turn, show that among the nonagriculture sectors, investments in those sec- tors with strong connections to the food system, such as food processing, trade, or transport, have larger impacts on poverty than those in nonfood manufacturing or ser- vice sectors. The global food system is operating beyond its plane- tary boundaries (Steffen et al. 2015; Ruggeri et al. 2024). The resulting degradation of environmental systems and greenhouse gas emissions contribute to fragile settings characterized by conflict, disaster, and physical displace- ment and worsening food security, diet quality, and nutri- tion outcomes. By 2030, 2.8 billion people will live in fragile settings, up from 1.8 billion in 2020, and 80 percent 10 of them will be poor (GLOPAN 2020). Not only are food systems in urgent need of transformation, but the burden of climate inaction will also fall disproportionately on the poor. The urgency of food systems transformation also challenges conceptions around poverty measurement. Poverty lines are traditionally derived from the cost of cal- ories required to sustain human activity. However, food systems should provide more than sufficient calories; they should also ensure that healthy, sustainably produced foods are affordable to poor people (Willet et al. 2019). The global average cost of a healthy diet is estimated at around US$3.30 per day in 2017 prices (FAO 2024), more than 50 percent higher than the global poverty line of US$2.15. Eradicating extreme poverty will not be enough to ensure that all people can afford a healthy diet. More ambitious poverty reduction targets should be adopted if the poor are expected to contribute to more sustainable food systems through their dietary choices. KEY GAPS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH Foresight analysis can inform the design of food systems policies and investment programs aimed at facilitating transformation and poverty reduction. Investments that raise on-farm productivity in agriculture remain import- ant for driving poverty reduction among the many poor farm households around the world. However, struc- tural change and dietary shifts mean the effectiveness of investments in the off-farm components of the food sys- tem, such as food processing, distribution, and food ser- vices, will gradually become more important in reducing poverty. Foresight analysis can help policymakers antici- pate these changes and adjust their investment allocation decisions across the on- and off-farm components of food systems accordingly. Potential trade-offs arise across development outcomes. Poverty reduction is not the only development goal of food systems transformation. Others include improved availability and access to healthy foods and the transi- tion toward environmentally sustainable food production practices. Policies that target one development out- come may have unintended consequences for others. For instance, investing in staple crops might be highly effec- tive at reducing extreme poverty but may have adverse implications for diet quality (for example, if it results in overconsumption of calories and lower consumption of healthy foods) or for the environment (for example, because of land use change or increased use of inor- ganic fertilizer). Likewise, regulations that encourage the adoption of sustainable food production processes (for example, limits on greenhouse gas emissions in food pro- cessing or transport) could raise the cost of food, with implications for poverty or diet quality. Foresight analysis can help policymakers identify potential trade-offs associ- ated with the policies they design so that they can imple- ment measures to protect vulnerable households from any adverse impacts. Trade-offs — or synergies — may also exist between cur- rent and future development outcomes. Making quality diets more affordable for poor people today results in a healthier, more productive workforce and higher lifetime earnings. Better diets are also associated with improved learning among school-aged children and better earn- ings prospects in the future. These future benefits may offset current costs. Conversely, delaying or slowing down the transition toward sustainable food systems may save financial resources today, but the burden of envi- ronmental degradation that may follow as a result will be shifted onto future generations of poor people. Foresight analysis can account for future streams of benefits and costs, which in turn can inform optimal budgetary alloca- tions today. This chapter was supported by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight and the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. The authors of this chapter are Karl Pauw, a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM) Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Paul Dorosh, a Senior Research Fellow in FPM at IFPRI; Wenqian Xu, a Research Analyst in FPM at IFPRI; and Jean Balié, Director of the CGIAR Poverty Reduction, Livelihoods and Jobs Impact Platform. Related chapters on the future of food system drivers and impacts, regional and national perspectives, food commodities, and foresight tools are available in our Table of Contents. Citation: Pauw, K, P. Dorosh, W. Xu, and J. Balié. 2025. “What Do We Know About the Future of Poverty in Relation to Food Systems?” In What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems?, eds. K. Wiebe and E. Gotor, Chapter 2. Washington, DC: IFPRI. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 Photo credit: Damian Ryszawy/Shutterstock 11 http://www.cgiar.org/funders https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE A world free of hunger and malnutrition IFPRI is a CGIAR Research Center 1201 Eye St, NW, Washington, DC 20005 USA  |  T. +1-202-862-5600  |  F. +1-202-862-5606  |  Email: ifpri@cgiar.org  |  www.ifpri.org  |  www.ifpri.info Handle: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 © 2025 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). This publication is licensed for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). References Arndt, C., X. Diao, P. Dorosh, K. Pauw, and J. 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What do we know about THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS? What do we know about THE FUTURE OF DIETS AND NUTRITION? Timothy B. Sulser (IFPRI), Marie Ruel (IFPRI), and Shakuntala H. Thilsted (CGIAR) Key messages • Diets continue to evolve and nutrition challenges are changing as diets shift from traditional to more modern ones that are higher in animal-source foods, refined grains, and processed and ultra-pro- cessed foods; high in saturated fats, sugar, and salt; and low in fiber. • Important progress, though uneven, has been made over several decades in improving diets and nutrition, but these trends have reversed or slowed since 2010. • Undernutrition has decreased over time, while micronutrient defi- ciencies have not. Overweight and obesity are rapidly rising in all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and remain high in high- income countries. Multiple burdens of malnutrition coexist within countries, regions, communities, households, and individuals. • Nutrition literature increasingly highlights the multiple burdens of malnutrition but rarely looks explicitly at future trajectories for nutri- tional indicators. • Simulation studies explore alternative futures explicitly and give a good indication regarding dietary trends but are limited with respect to nutritional outcome trends. • A critical need and opportunity exist for more work that combines nutrition with foresight modeling, particularly with a focus on LMICs. CHAP TER 3 13 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 RECENT TRENDS AND CHALLENGES Human nutrition is the result of dietary practices as well as individuals’ health and a combination of environmental and societal factors, all of which interact in a dynamic pro- cess. Nutrition is inextricably linked to diets, and factors that affect diets influence the resulting nutritional status of individuals, along with many others that determine bio- availability of nutrients from foods consumed and individ- uals’ health status. We focus on the future developments of the diet and nutritional dimensions of this complex topic, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and regions in which CGIAR works. Diets and nutrition are evolving in dynamic ways as tech- nological, agricultural, environmental, and cultural sys- tems change and interact. Diets evolve in response to changing preferences, prices, and incomes and to cultural forces. It is well established that as incomes rise, the share of nutrient-dense foods in the diet increases (Bennett 1941a, 1941b); with near certainty, we can expect this will remain true in the future. The nutrient content of food evolves due to factors such as breeding, production practices, climate impacts, and processing methods. Societal drivers such as education, health, and sanitation systems also exert a huge influence on the levels of nutrition that are possible with available food and diets. Malnutrition takes three forms: undernourishment (energy deficiency, also referred to as “chronic hun- ger”), which manifests itself in child wasting or stunt- ing and adult underweight; micronutrient deficiencies (also referred to as “hidden hunger”); and overweight/ obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases (Figure 1). Poverty, conflict, and access issues are key driv- ers in the stalling and reversal of positive trends in hunger and malnutrition. While undernourishment has decreased over the past sev- eral decades, events in recent years have either stalled progress or reversed trends in many regions. The global prevalence of undernourishment dropped 2 to 6 percent- age points, depending on the region, between 2000 and 2022. Chronic hunger hit a low point in the 2010s but has been on the rise ever since. Figure 1  Recent nutrition trends Source: FAOSTAT 2025. https://www.fao.org/faostat/ Note: Chronic hunger is not tracked when it is below 5 percent, as in North America and Europe. WorldSub-Saharan Africa North America and EuropeLatin America and the CaribbeanAsiaAfrica 50% 2000 20202010 2000 20202010 2000 20202010 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 Undernourishment Prevalence of undernourishment (chronic hunger) Micronutrient deficiencies Prevalence of anemia among women of reproductive age (15–49 years) Obesity Prevalence of obesity in adults (18 years and older) 14 https://www.fao.org/faostat/ Although little information is available on the preva- lence of micronutrient deficiencies globally, anemia—a proxy indicator of iron and potentially other micronutrient deficiencies—has declined since 2000 around the world (except in North America and Europe), but these trends have either slowed or reversed course since the 2010s. Micronutrient deficiencies are driven by a complex mix of factors, some of them related to poverty, unaffordability of nutritious foods, and poor health, and others related to awareness and preferences that cut across income levels. Overweight/obesity is widespread and increased consis- tently over the same period in all regions, with prevalence doubling in many regions between 2000 and 2022. Rising incomes, urbanization, and changing food systems are the main drivers of overweight/obesity and the double burden of malnutrition, characterized by the coexistence of multiple forms of malnutrition in the same coun- tries, households, or individuals (Popkin, Corvalan, and Grummer-Strawn. 2020). LATEST FORESIGHT RESEARCH A strong literature and research base documents past trends and current status across the various dimensions of diets and nutrition, and many efforts to improve nutrition in the future. Several current research and development efforts aim- ing to change the future of nutrition are highly focused on specific improvements that could be achieved in the near term, though in isolation and without consideration of the full agrifood system. Nutritional benefits are foreseen from these types of improvements if and when they can be achieved and scaled up. Some of the most prominent approaches include: • Improvements in the plants and animals we eat, includ- ing biofortification and other management and breed- ing efforts (Bouis and Saltzman 2017; White and Broadley 2009; Sands et al. 2009; Flax et al. 2023; Boy et al. 2024), as well as improving the mix of food items in the average food basket (Golden et al. 2021; Herforth et al. 2019). • Supplementation and fortification, including large- scale fortification of staple foods or condiments (for example, salt, bouillon cubes) with essential micro- nutrients, and micronutrient-fortified products for- mulated for nutritionally vulnerable groups, such as lipid-based nutrient supplements or micronutrient sprinkles (Dewey et al. 2023; Osendarp et al. 2018). • Behavior change communication strategies to educate and shape consumer preferences and food choices, as well as interventions to improve the healthiness of food environments (Fretes, Marshall, and Leroy 2024; Kim et al. 2024; Springmann et al. 2016, 2018). Foresight research that explicitly analyzes the future of nutrition outcomes remains relatively limited, even as dietary projections at the aggregated commodity level are available (Bodirsky et al. 2015; Valin et al. 2014; van Dijk et al. 2021). Some research—such as Tigchelaar et al. (2024) or many of the EAT-Lancet analyses for a planetary health diet—assesses future diets in a quantitative frame- work without an economic equilibrium. This is important given the pace of change in factors affecting diets and nutrition; the time lags involved in developing approaches to address those changes; and system dynamics, with prices, preferences, and production interacting and changing simultaneously. Quantitative foresight modeling looks at the complex interplay of drivers to estimate potential trajectories for the agrifood system. This approach provides an estimate of both the supply of and demand for agricultural com- modities and many other aspects of the agrifood system. One key component of many foresight studies in the agri- food sector is the evolution of diets in terms of a com- plex economic equilibrium of demand and availability. Cenacchi, Sulser, and Mishra (2025) provide one exam- ple using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model. Using the same set of results, this brief highlights the changes in food availability from different food groups and of nutrients available in the food supply as shown in the projections below. Nutritional outcomes can be included as part of the pro- jections, depending on the focus of the research. The prevalence of undernourishment—associated with the risk of hunger and a measure of chronic hunger—is the most common metric used in foresight studies (Hasegawa et al. 2019; Sulser et al. 2021b), while hidden hunger is assessed by means of ratios of nutrient availability to rec- ommended levels of intake (Beach et al. 2019;Nelson et al. 15 2018). Projections of chronic and hidden hunger can be combined into estimates of future trends in disability-ad- justed life years (Sulser et al. 2021a). Several quantitative foresight analyses that focus on specific commodities or commodity groups elevate the importance of nutri- tion derived from particular types of foods, such as from aquatic foods (Chan et al. 2021), livestock (Enahoro et al. 2018), and fruits and vegetables (Mason-D’Croz et al. 2019). Modeling the future of overweight/obesity is esti- mated by a complex combination of calculations and assumptions (Bodirsky et al. 2020) and has been done by few modeling groups to date. Given the connection of modeling parameters to past trends and estimates of the structural relationships across factors in the agrifood system, the overall outlook is generally a continuation of trends that see improvements in chronic and hidden hun- ger and a steady increase in overweight/obesity. This broad regional outlook masks details at the country and subnational level, however, as many segments of the pop- ulation face increasingly challenging situations. Climate change is a topic of wide interest in relation to diets and nutrition. As temperature and precipitation deviate from historical trends, food production systems must adapt and the transition to new agricultural prac- tices often leads to increased prices and less food avail- ability, particularly in the Global South (Kompas, Nhu Che, and Grafton 2024; Sulser et al. 2021b). At the same time, the nutritional quality of food is projected to change with increasing carbon dioxide, with decreases in protein, min- erals, and many vitamins, while enhancing energy con- tent and a few select vitamins (Beach et al. 2019; Loladze 2014; Myers et al. 2014; Zhu et al. 2018). Extreme events and variability lead to additional challenges for nutri- tion that are often missing from many modeling exercises (Hasegawa et al. 2021). In general, future changes in population and income are important drivers that far outweigh the climate changes represented in most model-based analyses (Hasegawa et al. 2015; Nelson et al. 2018; Sulser et al. 2021b). Increasing per capita incomes make diverse diets and their nutri- tional and health benefits more readily available, though concurrently, many negative forces come to the fore, including increased consumption outside the home and preferences for convenience foods that are often unhealthy, with an excess of saturated fats, sugar, and salt. At the same time, increased incomes could curb the overweight and obesity crisis if consumers adopt health- ier, more balanced diets. Continued population growth and constrained incomes, on the other hand, lead to challenges for reducing chronic and hidden hunger in many regions. Both over- and undernutrition can occur simultaneously at certain levels of aggregated geogra- phies (Bodirsky et al. 2020; Hawkes et al. 2020; Popkin, Corvalan, and Grummer-Strawn 2020). The EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, and Health (Willet et al. 2019) designed and advocated a planetary health diet that attempts to achieve the goals of healthy diets for all while keeping the agrifood system within sus- tainable environmental bounds for the future. This effort sparked a great deal of interest, but also skepticism regarding adoption of very low or nonmeat diets and was criticized for its focus on high-income countries and lim- ited applicability elsewhere. Other concerns relate to its nutritional inadequacy for population groups with high nutrient requirements (for example, pregnant or lactating women) and the potentially more costly minimum ade- quate diet (Beal, Ortenzi, and Fanzo. 2023; Hirvonen et al. 2020). A follow-up to this work (EAT-Lancet 2.0) currently underway aims to update, expand, and strengthen this analysis while addressing some of these critiques (EAT- Lancet 2.0 Commissioners et al. 2023). Another important development is the work to estab- lish a standard metric of the cost of a healthy diet that ties together nationally developed food-based dietary guidelines with consumer prices, especially in low-in- come countries (Herforth et al. 2022). This is now incor- porated in regular reports by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the World Bank (FAO 2024; World Bank 2024) and is the basis for work that is developing a forward-looking perspective using model projections (Costlow et al. 2025). Recent projections from the IMPACT model provide a quick look at dietary evolution and nutrition projections (see Chapter 36 in this volume). As an extension to that presentation, Figure 2 shows the change in per capita calorie availability for major food types across regions. Several takeaway messages present themselves: • The increase in per capita consumption of oils and sugar is clearly shown in East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa, each increasing by over 100 calories combined by 2050. The high-income countries, however, are projected to con- sume more than 1.5 times more calories from oils and sugars than LMICs. 16 • The share of calories from starchy cereals and roots and tubers is declining relative to more nutrient-dense, animal-source foods, fruits and vegetables, and oils and sugars. Some regions even show negative growth trends for calories from starches. • The increased share of animal-source foods, especially in East Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean, will require careful consideration to focus on healthier options and avoid processed red meat, associated with harmful health outcomes. Based on per capita food availability, we compare nutri- ent availability with recommended nutrient intake levels (RNI ratios), following Beach et al. (2019) and Nelson et al. (2018). RNI ratios close to one mean that the average con- sumer might be able to meet recommendations while val- ues below one indicate the opposite. Figure 3 shows the change in regional RNI ratios for five key vitamins and minerals for 2020 and 2050. Calcium supplies are insufficient everywhere to meet dietary requirements. In contrast, iron and zinc have RNI ratios greater than one, indicating that a larger share of the pop- ulation should have access to adequate supplies of these nutrients though, in practice, many factors could limit their bioavailability. Vitamin A and folate show a pattern similar to iron and zinc in most regions, except the Middle East and North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, where RNI ratios fall short and few people will be able to achieve adequate levels for a healthy diet. KEY GAPS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR FORESIGHT RESEARCH Looking at complex food systems and the scaling of nutri- tion interventions and interactions in the longer term is crucial for achieving broad-based, beneficial, and lasting outcomes (Ruel 2024). Understanding the future of diets and nutrition requires connecting nutrition literature and quantitative foresight studies. In general, nutrition litera- ture is essential to understand the many dimensions and Figure 2  Per capita calorie availability from major food groups in current and future diets, 2020 and 2050, by region Source: IMPACT v3.4, in Rosegrant et al. (2024). Note: EAP = East Asia and Pacific; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MENA = Middle East and North Africa; SA = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 EAP LAC MENA SA SSA World Animal-source foods Cereals and roots and tubers Fruits and vegetables Oils Sugar Other Pe r ca p it a ca lo ri es 17 Figure 3  Ratio of nutrient availability from projected diets to recommended nutrient intakes (RNI ratios) for key vitamins and minerals in 2020 and 2050, by region Source: IMPACT v3.4, in Rosegrant et al. (2024). Vitamin A Folate Calcium Iron Zinc 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 RNI ratio 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 E A P LA C M E N A SA SS A W o rl d 18 connections between diets and nutrition. This literature, however, relies on analysis of historical data and is limited in looking explicitly at the future in a systematic way. Meanwhile, simulation studies that look explicitly at future diets are limited in nutritional detail. Studies linking diets, health, and planetary environmental boundaries tend to focus on the Global North, leaving a need and opportu- nity to combine nutritional depth with foresight modeling and a focus on LMICs. The most robust approach would rely upon “multimodel” ensembles that provide transpar- ent methodologies for their projections of dietary evolu- tion. The range of potential outcomes will reveal either self-reinforcing agreements among models that provide strong evidence of findings or disagreements that flag areas for further research. A major question for the future of diets and nutrition is how potential demand changes will play out in global agrifood system dynamics. Quantitative foresight model- ing of the agrifood sector from an economic equilibrium perspective can help explore this. For example, if a more environmentally conscious diet were to become more widespread—meaning populations avoid increasing their consumption of animal-source foods as incomes increase, while relying more on plant-based foods—foresight mod- eling could explicitly handle how preference shifts would react to price changes due to changing levels of demand for these different types of commodities, in turn affecting the final purchase of food baskets by different consum- ers. Joining this with detailed understanding of how food systems work from a nutrition perspective (food environ- ments, nutrition innovations, etc.) can help policymakers make decisions on how to best allocate resources to sup- port a healthy dietary evolution. This chapter was supported by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Foresight and the CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations. We would like to thank all funders who supported this research through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund. The authors of this chapter are Timothy B. Sulser, a Senior Scientist in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Marie Ruel, a Senior Research Fellow in the Nutrition, Diets, and Health Unit at IFPRI; and Shakuntala H. Thilsted, Director of the CGIAR Nutrition Impact Platform. Related chapters on the future of food system drivers and impacts, regional and national perspectives, food commodities, and foresight tools are available in our Table of Contents. Citation: Sulser, T.B., M. Ruel, and S.H. Thilsted. 2025. “What Do We Know About the Future of Diets and Nutrition?” In What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems?, eds. K. Wiebe and E. Gotor, Chapter 3. Washington, DC: IFPRI. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 Photo credit: Geet Theerawat/Shutterstock 19 http://www.cgiar.org/funders https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175019 References Beach, R.H., T.B. Sulser, A. Crimmins, et al. 2019. “Combining the Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Protein, Iron, and Zinc Availability and Projected Climate Change on Global Diets: A Modelling Study.” Lancet Planetary Health 3 (7): e307–317. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30094-4 Beal, T., F. Ortenzi, and J. 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Saltzman. 2017. “Improving Nutrition through Biofortification: A Review of Evidence from HarvestPlus, 2003 through 2016.” Global Food Security 12: 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2017.01.009 Cenacchi, N., T.B. Sulser, and A. Mishra. 2025. “What Do We Know about the Future of Food Demand, Production, and Food Security Based on IMPACT Model Projections?” In What Do We Know About the Future of Food Systems?, eds. K. Wiebe and E. Gotor, Chapter 36. Washington, DC: IFPRI. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/175534 Chan, C.Y., N. Tran, K.C. Cheong, T.B. Sulser, P.J. Cohen, K. Wiebe, and A.M. Nasr-Allah. 2021. “The Future of Fish in Africa: Employment and Investment Opportunities.” PLOS ONE 16 (12): e0261615. https://doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pone.0261615 Costlow, L., A. Herforth, T.B. Sulser, N. Cenacchi, and W.A. 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Shepon, et al. “Aquatic Foods to Nourish Nations.” Nature 598 (7880): 315–20. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03917-1 Hasegawa, T., S. Fujimori, K. Takahashi, and T. Masui. 2015. “Scenarios for the Risk of Hunger in the Twenty- First Century Using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.” Environmental Research Letters 10 (1): 014010. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014010 Hasegawa, T., P. Havlík, S. Frank, A. Palazzo, and H. Valin. 2019. “Tackling Food Consumption Inequality to Fight Hunger without Pressuring the Environment.” Nature Sustainability 2 (9): 826–833. https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41893-019-0371-6 Hasegawa, T., G. Sakurai, S. Fujimori, K. Takahashi, Y. Hijioka, and T. Masui. 2021. “Extreme Climate Events Increase Risk of Global Food Insecurity and Adaptation Needs.” Nature Food 2(8): 587–595. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00335-4 Hawkes, C., M.T. Ruel, L. Salm, B. Sinclair, and F. Branca. 2020. “Double-Duty Actions: Seizing Programme and Policy Opportunities to Address Malnutrition in All Its Forms.” Lancet 395 (10218): 142–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32506-1 Herforth, A., A. Venkat, Y. Bai, L. Costlow, C. Holleman, and W.A. Masters. 2022. Methods and Options to Monitor the Cost and Affordability of a Healthy Diet Globally. Background Paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022. Rome: FAO. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc1169en Herforth, A., M. Arimond, C. Álvarez-Sánchez, J. Coates, K. Christianson, and E. Muehlhoff. 2019. “A Global Review of Food-Based Dietary Guidelines.” Advances in Nutrition 10 (4): 590–605. https://doi.org/10.1093/ advances/nmy130 Hirvonen, K., Y. Bai, D. Headey, and W.A. Masters. 2020. “Affordability of the EAT–Lancet Reference Diet: A Global Analysis.” Lancet Global Health 8 (1): e59–66