INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS 2 The “Investing in Innovative Food Systems Solutions in Challenging Contexts: A Food Supply Chain Mapping and Analysis” report was prepared by the World Food Programme (WFP) in partnership with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the African Development Bank (AfDB). The study was led by Dr. Stephen Were Omamo, Director, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG) and Director for Africa of IFPRI. The final report benefited from the leadership of Dr. Abdul B. Kamara, Director General of Nigeria Country Department, AfDB; Mr. David Stevenson, WFP Country Director for Nigeria; Dr. Martin Fregene, Director of Agriculture and Agro-Industry, AfDB; and Dr. Yero Baldeh, Director of Transition State Department (RDTS), AfDB. The mainstreaming of the African Development Bank’s Feed Africa Strategy and the Bank’s Strategy for Addressing Fragility and Building Resilience in Africa (2022–2026) was carried out by a team comprising of Dr. Vincent Castel (Division Manager, Agriculture, AfDB), Dr. Riadh Ben Massoud (Lead Coordinator, RDTS, AfDB), Mr. Tabi Karikari (Chief Agro Industry Officer, AfDB), and Dr. Tarila Marclint Ebiede (Senior Fragility and Resilience Officer, AfDB). Peer review comments were received from Professor Francis Ebuta Bisong and Dr. Mthokozisi Ncube. Editorial support for this report was provided by Ms. Chi Lael (Head of Communications, Advocacy and Marketing, WFP), Ms. Aisha Darboe (Strategic Programme Policy Advisor, WFP), and Ms. Nkiruka Henrietta Ugoh (Communications Specialist, AfDB). The report’s layout and design were done by Edwin Titus. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the World Food Programme, African Development Bank Group, International Food Policy Research Institute, respective Boards of Directors, or the states nor country they represent. This document, as well as any data and maps included, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city, or area. You may copy, download, or print this material for your own use, and you may include excerpts fromthis publication in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites, and teaching materials, as long all three organizations are suitably acknowledged as the source and copyright owner. Copyright statement 3 ‘As governments, donors, and development partners look to scale support in fragile regions, the question is no longer whether we can afford to invest but whether we can afford not to’ Reflections on the Hunger Crisis in Northern Nigeria Positive news Foreword Humanitarian agencies are in a race against time to save lives in contexts where economies have collapsed as hunger is aggravated by conflicts and extreme weather, among other factors. Take Nigeria, for example. Across the country lives and livelihoods are being shattered by conflict and climate shocks – once a breadbasket, the northern regions now rely heavily on humanitarian food assistance. The numbers speak for themselves: 30.6 million people are food insecure – 10 million people in three northern states; 17 million children are malnourished – the highest number in Africa, second highest globally after India. Farmers are cut off from their fields. Traders struggle to move goods through dangerous or impassable roads. Millions are displaced. And yet amid this fragility pockets of resilience are emerging in areas where conflict has subsided such that some farmers can return to their farms. Food assistance has saved millions of lives in northern Nigeria and contributed to the local agricultural economy – but not always systematically. But what if food assistance could do more than meet immediate needs? What if it became the catalyst for rebuilding food systems – revitalizing local economies, and laying the groundwork for durable peace and recovery? (What are food systems? Everything from ‘farm to fork’ – it’s about having a broader picture of how we literally produce, transport, process and consume food.) WFP’s shift from food aid to food assistance marked a major policy reform. In the case of Nigeria, by focusing on “assistance” rather than “aid”, WFP has enabled around U$200 million per year to be invested in Nigeria. This includes: locally purchased food, cash transfers for people to buy food in local markets, and e-vouchers redeemable with local retailers. 4 Maintaining momentum Nigeria’s north: navigating the complexities Reimagining food systems That’s certainly possible in spite of challenges – according to a forthcoming study from the World Food Programme (WFP), the African Development Bank (AfDB), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The joint WFP-AfDB-IFPRI study will show that even in conflict-affected areas, food systems are not broken everywhere. Farmers are planting in pockets of stability. Women’s cooperatives are processing food for local markets. Youth-led logistics enterprises are emerging. These islands of functionality offer something rare in fragile contexts: momentum. But maintaining momentum needs investment. In northern Nigeria, insecurity has fractured supply chains. Poor infrastructure, high transport costs, and post- harvest losses (up to 30–50 percent for some crops) are driving up food prices and hitting farmers’ incomes. Labour shortages resulting from people moving to escape conflict have pushed wages higher. Fertilizer and seed prices remain out of reach for most. Despite these constraints, the region has extraordinary potential – spanning diverse agro-ecological zones with year-round production capacity. Demand for processed products is growing. Public investment, like the Government’s AfDB-supported wheat cultivation on over a million hectares, is scaling up. And innovations in climate-smart agriculture, digital input systems, and inclusive finance are taking root. The lesson is clear: with the right investments, even fragile regions can transform their food systems. So, what needs to change? First, humanitarian food systems must be reimagined – from emergency pipelines to economic platforms. Local sourcing, tailored cash transfers, and co-investments in storage, processing, and logistics can turn assistance into a driver of resilience. The local purchase programme could be expanded so that it contributes as a humanitarian solution. WFP’s Food System Influence Index is one example of how the agency is shifting toward food-system-sensitive operations – designed to advise on the contributions cash transfers and local food purchases can have on the local food system. But there are still untapped opportunities to strengthen local food systems, restore markets, and build long-term resilience. For example, cash-based transfers can unintentionally undermine local agriculture when beneficiaries and retailers choose imported food. This allows imports to outcompete or displace local production. On the other hand, local food procurement can stimulate production, strengthen markets, and complement private sector investment – even in fragile settings. With the right policies and incentives, food assistance can do more than save lives – it can help rebuild economies and support long-term recovery. We can support the same people with food assistance and resilience at the same time. 5 Backing farmers From fragility to prosperity It also requires the empowerment of small-scale farmers, engaging women and youth at the center of investment. Third, the real levers of resilience must be targeted: reducing post-harvest losses, improving input access, cutting transport costs, and modernizing processing. Climate-smart technologies – such as solar-powered dryers, drought-tolerant seeds, and weather insurance – must be mainstreamed. And the informal taxation that bleeds value from food systems must be tackled. Finally, recovery must be inclusive. Women and young people are central to food systems in fragile settings but face barriers gaining access to land, finance, and training. Targeted programmes – combined with broader policy reforms – are needed to unlock their economic potential. The situation in northern Nigeria is a microcosm of a larger reality: humanitarian aid is essential, but not enough. It must be linked to long-term strategies for recovery and growth. With proper support, food systems can stabilize communities, create jobs, and build peace. This is not only a development challenge. It is an investment opportunity. Structured correctly, food system investments can yield strong returns in fragile settings: reducing reliance on aid, improving nutrition, stimulating markets, and fostering political stability. As governments, donors, and development partners look to scale support in fragile regions, the question is no longer whether we can afford to invest – but whether we can afford not to. Northern Nigeria offers a stark illustration of both the high stakes involved and the transformative possibilities that lie ahead, demanding our focused attention and decisive action. Co-authored by David Stevenson, WFP Country Director in Nigeria; Dr Abdul Kamara, African Development Bank Director General for Nigeria; Dr Steven Were Omamo, International Food Policy Research Institute Director for Africa. Structuring investments Second, investments must be structured, not scattered. Too often, development plans stop at project lists. Typically missing are bankable investment portfolios. These portfolios should skillfully blend grant financing with concessional loans, specifically tailored to the unique challenges of fragile environments and supported by expert technical assistance on the ground. This approach has yet to be implemented and requires meaningful engagement between the private sector, international financial institutions, and operational agencies such as WFP. Bundling road repair with off-grid processing, or linking farmer cooperatives to procurement hubs, can unlock scale and impact. This is where AfDB’s infrastructure experience and IFPRI’s analytics add real value. This demands a shift towards a risk-adjusted return mindset, in other words, “profitability” – a concept familiar to the private sector but one that requires a progressive adaptation among humanitarian and development actors. 6 Foreword Key messages Background Introduction Conflict and food systems in Northern Nigeria Food inflation Study Objectives Study Components Mapping the structure and functions of food supply chains Cost build-up analysis Market price analysis Methodological approaches Data collection Data analysis Contribution of the study Findings Food supply mapping Cost build-up analysis Findings from Market Price Analysis Barriers to Efficient Trade in Key Food Supply Chains in Northern Nigeria Emergent Investment Opportunities for Food Systems Transformation Major Findings and Recommendations Major Findings Recommendations Summary and Conclusions References Appendix 1: Field instrument for cost build-up fieldwork Appendix 2: Survey instrument for qualitative fieldwork Appendix 3: Sampling strategy for qualitative field Work 04 09 14 18 22 23 26 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 37 38 39 56 81 104 114 122 123 127 130 136 140 140 157 Contents 7 INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS Rebuilding Northern Nigeria’s role as the breadbasket potential requires transformative investments that improve livelihoods and strengthen resilience. 8 Key Messages Peace and security are essential for sustained recovery in Northern Nigeria. The region’s vast agricultural potential remains out of reach amid persistent insecurity, violent conflict, displacement, and armed banditry. These challenges have driven farmers off their fields, disrupted value chains, increased fragility, and deepened reliance on humanitarian assistance. Stability is not just a humanitarian imperative; it is an economic necessity for restoring livelihoods and food systems. Federal and state authorities, along with international partners, must prioritise dialogue, peacebuilding, and long-term stabilisation. Pockets of stability can serve as anchors for recovery. Despite the broader conflict, more stable areas offer promising footholds for food system revitalisation. Targeted investments in production, processing, storage, and transport in these zones can catalyse wider recovery. Stable areas must be seen as anchors for transformation, helping to drive recovery, reignite the region’s economy and bring tangible benefits to vulnerable populations. If we overlook these opportunities, they risk falling into further decline. Supporting them now is essential to building long-term resilience. Humanitarian food assistance should be leveraged to strengthen local food systems. There is untapped potential to use food assistance to stimulate local production, incentivise value chain actors to meet demand while supporting recovery. Early investments in storage, processing, and transport infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses and stabilise food supply chains, even amid disruptions; and tailored cash-based transfers tied to local commodities to ensure that economic benefits of assistance remain within the region, supporting smallholder farmers and regional enterprises. 1 2 3 Investing in Innovative Food Systems Solutions in Challenging Contexts 9 Climate shocks and food inflation compound food insecurity. Northern Nigeria’s food system is highly susceptible to climate shocks, including erratic rainfall, prolonged drought and severe flooding, which disrupt food production, markets, and livelihoods. Droughts reduce crop yields and pasture availability, driving up food prices and worsening food insecurity, while floods damage infrastructure and displace communities. A heavy reliance on seasonal rainfall leaves smallholder farmers particularly vulnerable, limiting their ability to recover from climate-related shocks. Climate stress also fuels conflicts over natural resources, especially between farmers and pastoralists, further destabilising food supply chains. Understanding these risks is critical for designing policies that enhance resilience, including investments in climate-resilient crops, robust storage, distribution networks, and risk management tools, alongside targeted social protection, are essential to safeguard nutrition and reduce vulnerability. Transformative investments are necessary to rebuild the breadbasket. Reviving Northern Nigeria’s agricultural role requires large-scale investment, which includes improving access to quality inputs, expanding irrigation, and strengthening storage and agro-processing capacity. Improving rural-urban connectivity and addressing inefficiencies across the value chain will be key in unlocking growth. Public-private partnerships, alongside support from institutions like the African Development Bank, can help mobilise and structure the financing needed to sustain and scale recovery efforts. Structural challenges must be addressed to unlock Northern Nigeria’s agricultural potential. High input costs, labour shortages, post-harvest losses, and inefficient tax systems are major barriers to agricultural productivity. Addressing these challenges through targeted policies, mechanisation, and reduced taxation will unleash the region’s full potential. Recognising these opportunities, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has developed the Food System Influence Index (FSII), a tool designed to assess the systemic impacts of humanitarian interventions on food systems while addressing critical gaps in market and food system analysis. FSII complements existing tools such as market assessments and nutrition-sensitive data. This approach ensures that decisions on the appropriate food assistance interventions are grounded in comprehensive, multi-dimensional evidence. 4 5 6 7 10 INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS Like the rest of the country, Northern Nigeria has been severely affected by food price inflation. As a result, the purchasing power of households has been severely impacted, with devastating impacts for food and nutrition security. To mitigate these impacts, targeted safety nets for vulnerable consumers are essential alongside support for small- scale farmers. In parallel, systemic investments are needed to reduce inefficiencies across value chains and promote climate-resilient practices within the food system. Rebuilding Northern Nigeria’s role as the breadbasket potential requires transformative investments that improve livelihoods and strengthen resilience. To reclaim its role as Nigeria’s agricultural heartland, large-scale investments are needed in infrastructure, storage, and agro-processing facilities. These efforts must focus on reducing inefficiencies and improving connectivity between rural production zones and national and regional markets. Public-private partnerships and targeted funding from development finance institutions, such as the African Development Bank (AfDB), can play a pivotal role in mobilising the resources required to build a modern, resilient food system that supports both food security and economic recovery. Facilitate access to affordable, high-quality inputs through digital platforms. Develop mobile-based platforms that enable farmers to purchase authentic seeds, fertilisers, and pesticides directly from trusted suppliers. These platforms should incorporate features like price transparency and farmer reviews to build trust and ensure informed decision- making. Simultaneously, launch awareness campaigns to educate farmers on the importance of using quality inputs (seeds and fertilisers) using these platforms and provide alternative support for those without smartphones, ensuring equitable access to these services. In this context, scaling up AfDB’s National Agricultural Growth Scheme – Agro-Pocket (NAGS- AP) initiative, which currently supports the cultivation of 1 million hectares, is essential to achieving its wheat production targets. Modernising transport, storage, and processing systems is essential for market resilience. These fundamental functions in the food system drive profitability and sustainability at all levels. Investments in repairing and maintaining existing roads, improving on-farm storage, and upgrading and modernising milling and other processing infrastructure would reduce post-harvest losses, stabilise prices, and increase competitiveness. 8 9 10 11 11KEY MESSAGES Addressing food safety and quality is crucial to market competitiveness. Improving food safety standards, particularly by tackling aflatoxin contamination in groundnuts and other crops, will enhance the marketability of produce from Northern Nigeria. Complying with global quality standards will also unlock access to export markets, boosting incomes across the agricultural value chain. Building resilient food systems requires climate-smart approaches. Climate-smart agriculture must be at the heart of regional transformation by boldly integrating improved productivity, climate adaptation, and emissions reduction. This includes technologies such as efficient irrigation systems, agroforestry, and improved pasture management, paired with early warning systems and functional insurance products. Inclusive growth must be centred on women and youth. Both are critical to the transformation of agriculture in Northern Nigeria. Empowering them with access to land, credit, and training will unlock their potential as key drivers of innovation and economic growth, helping to reduce unemployment and fostering resilience across communities. Evidence-based policy and investment decisions are essential. Effective food system transformation requires investment in rigorous research and decision-support tools. Governments, humanitarian actors, and donors should partner with institutions like the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to generate and apply context-specific evidence to inform strategy, policy, and investment decisions. Investments must be structured, not scattered, skilfully blending grant financing with concessional loans, specifically tailored to the unique challenges of fragile environments and supported by expert technical assistance on the ground. This approach requires meaningful engagement among the private sector, international financial institutions (IFIs), and operational agencies, such as the World Food Programme (WFP). This demands a shift towards a risk-adjusted return mindset, in other words, “profitability” - a concept familiar to the private sector but one that requires a progressive adaptation among humanitarian and development actors. 12 13 14 15 16 12 INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS Building resilient food systems requires climate-smart approaches. 13 This report presents the objectives and outcomes of a major field- based study on food supply chains in Northern Nigeria. The study is motivated by growing evidence that the food system in Northeast Nigeria has collapsed under ongoing insecurity. Food production, marketing, and consumption in these former breadbasket areas have been significantly disrupted by displacement and violence. As a result, vulnerability and food insecurity are widespread. The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has been a major operator in Northern Nigeria for close to decade, delivering life-saving food assistance to communities grappling with conflict, displacement, climate shocks, and chronic food insecurity. Even while urgent humanitarian needs are addressed by WFP and its partners, there is a pressing need for solutions that promote self-reliance over the long term. As part of its commitment to meet immediate humanitarian needs and to contribute to long- term recovery and resilience, WFP sponsored this study in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to explore ways to leverage its operations to transform the food system in Northern Nigeria. This report serves as a critical step in that process, INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS Background 14 examining the region’s food production, processing, storage, transport, and market systems. WFP’s motivation for this study is rooted in key features of its portfolio in the region whereby it provides support to beneficiaries through in-kind food, cash, and voucher assistance while also engaging in activities such as local procurement of food to strengthen supply chains and stimulate local economies. By understanding the structural challenges and opportunities within Northern Nigeria’s food system, WFP aims to ensure that its operations not only address immediate hunger but also address the root causes of hunger and foster sustainable development and economic recovery. Agriculture lies at the heart of Africa’s development agenda, and the African Development Bank (AfDB) has made this sector a cornerstone of its strategic vision through its Feed Africa initiative. Launched in 2016, the Feed Africa strategy aims to transform agriculture into a competitive, inclusive, and sustainable sector capable of driving economic growth, reducing poverty, and improving food and nutrition security. This vision recognises the untapped potential of Africa’s agricultural systems to not only meet the continent’s food needs but also position Africa as a key player in global agricultural markets. With an emphasis on value chain development, climate resilience, and inclusivity, Feed Africa seeks to catalyse investments that support farmers, including smallholders, women, and youth, while driving large-scale structural transformation in agricultural economies. AfDB’s broader strategy for agricultural development emphasises resilience and sustainability, particularly in regions vulnerable to climate change, conflict, and food insecurity. Northern Nigeria epitomises these challenges. With its predominantly agricultural economy, the region is central to Nigeria’s food security but faces systemic barriers, including weak infrastructure, limited market access, and recurring climate shocks. These issues are compounded by conflict and insecurity, which disrupt supply chains and undermine the livelihoods of millions. For AfDB, investing in agricultural development in Northern Nigeria is critical to addressing both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term development objectives. By strengthening food supply chains, improving infrastructure, and building resilience to shocks, AfDB supports the region to contribute meaningfully to Nigeria’s economic growth and food security. To boost food production, AfDB launched the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro- Pocket (NAGS-AP) operation in 2023. This initiative supports Nigeria in cultivating 1 million hectares of wheat to meet its wheat production targets, with an emphasis on the Northern states where the potential for dry-season wheat farming is significant. To achieve this, AfDB supported the authorities in providing improved seeds and fertilisers to boost production and productivity. In the 2023/2024 dry season, 277,000 ha was cultivated, almost a three- fold increase from the previous years, providing for about 10 percent% of national wheat consumption. This year, farmers have been directly supported to cultivate 280,000 ha in the 2024/2025 dry season. Combined with other efforts, it is expected that the cultivated area will be more than 300,000 ha. Similar actions are being taken for rice and other commodities with the support of partners such as the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). BACKGROUND 15 Such actions are part of the Country Food and Agriculture Delivery Compacts (FADC) presented by Nigeria in January 2023 at a high-level summit on Food Sovereignty and Resilience in Dakar, organised by AfDB and the African Union (AU). The annual production of the following priority commodities should be increased to strengthen the country’s food sovereignty by 2027: (a) 3.2 million tons for wheat; (b) 2.5 million tons for rice; and (c) 2.0 million tons for maise. Targets have also been set for fisheries and livestock products. AfDB’s investments are now geared towards achieving these results. The study of food supply chains in Northern Nigeria is closely aligned with AfDB’s focus on strengthening agricultural value chains, improving access to finance, and fostering regional integration. The Feed Africa strategy identifies key enablers of agricultural transformation, including improved infrastructure, access to inputs, and innovation in agricultural practices. This study provides valuable insights into how these enablers can be operationalised in the context of Northern Nigeria, providing a blueprint for further scalable and sustainable interventions. Building resilience is another key priority for AfDB, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected regions such as Northern Nigeria. The Bank’s Strategy for addressing fragility and building resilience in Africa underscores the need to tackle the root causes of vulnerability, including poverty, unemployment, and inequality. By examining trends and conditions of food supply chains, this study presents an opportunity to strengthen resilience at multiple levels — improving household food security, stimulating local economic growth, and fostering conditions for peace and stability. AfDB views agriculture not merely as a sector for development but as a foundation for resilience and recovery in fragile regions. Realising the full potential of Northern Nigeria could significantly ease many of the country’s macroeconomic challenges, paving the way for reduced dependence on imported food and packaging inputs, improved fiscal revenues, job and wealth creation, and a more substantial contribution to gross domestic product growth. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Northern Nigeria holds significant strategic importance in food security, agricultural production, and broader economic stability. As a major food-producing area with deep rural-urban market linkages, it is also a hotspot for food insecurity and malnutrition, making it critical for understanding how food systems function under stress. The region faces major disruptions from conflict, climate change, and economic volatility, all of which affect food availability, affordability, and resilience. Drawing on its extensive expertise in food policy analysis, market systems, and value chain dynamics, IFPRI brings rigorous data collection, advanced modelling techniques, and policy engagement to the study. With strong links to policymakers, donors, and development agencies in Nigeria and beyond, IFPRI is well placed to bridge research and action, ensuring that evidence informs strategies to strengthen food security, market resilience, and nutrition outcomes. INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS16 The insights and lessons captured in this report aim to inform the efforts of WFP and AfDB to transform their operations and investments in Northern Nigeria and beyond, as well as support IFPRI’s goal of providing evidence-based policy solutions that promote a transformation towards hunger-reducing food systems. For WFP, these findings serve as a guide for aligning humanitarian interventions with the broader objective of rebuilding resilient food systems, ensuring that the benefits of assistance extend beyond emergency relief to support long-term recovery and sustainable development. For AfDB, the study complements ongoing investments in infrastructure, irrigation, and rural finance in the region, ensuring that these investments are both evidence-based and impactful. For IFPRI, the findings may inform policy recommendations, guide donor investments, and contribute to global research on food systems in crisis contexts. This highlights the need for a strategic re-examination that incorporates operational innovations. In retrospect, the multiple crises experienced by Nigeria and other developing countries over the past five years should have spurred a broader and more coordinated response from the international development community to mitigate rising food prices and other disruptions to food systems. There is now an opportunity and an imperative for WFP, AfDB, IFPRI, and their partners to identify and implement solutions that initiate and sustain recovery and transformation, even within the current fluid security context. BACKGROUND 17 01- Study background - Conflict and food systems in Northern Nigeria - Food price inflation in Nigeria In tro du ct io n 18 Introduction Study Background C H A P T E R 0 1 Transforming food systems is essential to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Achieving zero hunger (Sustainable Development Goal 2) requires a fundamental shift from today’s low-productivity food systems, which often result in limited food supplies or unaffordable prices even when food is available in local markets. The increasing prevalence of conflict and state fragility pose serious obstacles to food system transformation, especially in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), such as Nigeria (WFP, 2023). As highlighted by the World Bank (2021), improving livelihoods and welfare in fragile and conflict- affected settings remains one of the most pressing challenges. Rising global hunger is primarily due to these fragile conditions, with projections indicating that by 2030, most people living in poverty will be concentrated in conflict-affected and fragile areas (Corral et al., 2020). Conflict has severely disrupted food systems in Nigeria, driving recurring food crises and emergencies. Food production, marketing, and consumption in these former breadbasket areas have been greatly disrupted by displacement and violence. Vulnerability and food insecurity are widespread. This disruption occurs through multiple channels, including the impact of conflict on farmers’ investment decisions, crop choices, and land use (Amare et al., 2024). The Northeast region exemplifies this devastation, where prolonged conflicts have led to the collapse of food supply chains, restricted market access, and diminished livelihood opportunities (WFP, 2023). WFP has been a major operator in Northern Nigeria for close to 10 years, delivering life-saving food assistance to communities grappling with conflict, displacement, climate shocks, and chronic food insecurity. As part of its commitment to meeting immediate humanitarian needs, while also contributing to long-term recovery and resilience, the World Food Programme (WFP) commissioned this study, conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), to explore how its operations could be leveraged to transform the food system of Northern Nigeria. This report represents a critical step in that process, examining the region’s food production, processing, storage, transport, and market systems. WFP commissioned this study in line with its dual mandate to provide life-saving assistance to beneficiaries through in-kind food, cash, and voucher assistance, while also engaging in local procurement of food to strengthen supply chains and stimulate local economies. By understanding the structural challenges and opportunities, WFP aims to ensure its operations not only address immediate hunger but also foster sustainable development and economic recovery and development. The insights and lessons presented in 19 INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS Even while WFP and its partners continue to address urgent humanitarian needs, there is a critical need to pursue long-term solutions that promote self-reliance over the long term. This calls for a strategic reboot underpinned by operational innovations. As the primary international public agency with an operational presence in the food system in Northern Nigeria, WFP is uniquely positioned to catalyse recovery and transformation even amid a fluid security context. Opportunities exist in relatively stable areas where actions can be initiated to strengthen and transform food systems. Agriculture lies at the heart of Africa’s development agenda, and the African Development Bank (AfDB) has made this sector a cornerstone of its strategic vision through its Feed Africa initiative. Launched in 2016, the Feed Africa initiative aims to transform agriculture into a competitive, inclusive, and sustainable sector that can drive economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve food and nutrition security. This vision recognises the untapped potential of Africa’s agricultural systems to not only meet the continent’s food needs but also position Africa as a key player in global agricultural markets. With an emphasis on value chain development, climate resilience, and inclusivity, Feed Africa seeks to catalyse investments that support smallholders, women, and youth while driving large-scale structural transformation in agricultural economies. AfDB’s broader strategy for agricultural development emphasises resilience and sustainability, particularly Agriculture lies at the heart of Africa’s development agenda, and the African Development Bank (AfDB) has made this sector a cornerstone of its strategic vision through its Feed Africa initiative. in regions vulnerable to climate change, conflict, and food insecurity. Northern Nigeria epitomises these challenges. With its predominantly agricultural economy, the region plays a central role in Nigeria’s food security but faces systemic barriers, including weak infrastructure, limited market access, and recurring climate-related shocks. These issues are compounded by conflict and insecurity, which disrupt supply chains and undermine the livelihoods of millions. For AfDB, investing in agricultural development in Northern Nigeria is critical to addressing both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term development objectives. By strengthening food supply chains, improving infrastructure, and building resilience to shocks, the Bank aims to enable the region to make a meaningful contribution to Nigeria’s economic growth and food security. This study of food supply chains in Northern Nigeria aligns closely with AfDB’s focus on enhancing agricultural value chains, improving access to finance, and fostering regional integration. The Feed Africa strategy identifies key enablers for agricultural transformation, including improved infrastructure, access to inputs, and innovation in agricultural practices. This study provides critical insights into how these enablers can be operationalised in the context of Northern Nigeria, offering a blueprint for further scalable interventions. Resilience-building is another key priority for AfDB, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected regions like Northern Nigeria. The Bank’s Strategy for Addressing Fragility and Building Resilience in Africa underscores the importance of addressing the root causes of vulnerability, including poverty, unemployment, and inequality. By focusing on trends and conditions in food supply chains, this study offers an opportunity to enhance resilience at multiple levels: improving household food security, fostering local economic growth, and creating conditions for peace and stability. AfDB views agriculture not just as a sector for development but as a foundation for resilience and recovery in fragile regions. The insights and lessons captured in this report are designed to inform WFP’s and AfDB’s efforts to transform their operations and investments in Northern Nigeria and beyond. For WFP, they serve as a guide for aligning humanitarian interventions with the broader 20 objective of rebuilding resilient food systems, ensuring that the benefits of assistance extend beyond emergency relief to contribute to lasting recovery and development. For AfDB, the study complements ongoing AfDB investments in infrastructure, irrigation, and rural finance in the region, ensuring that these investments are both evidence-based and impactful. This implies a need for a strategic re-examination featuring operational innovations. In retrospect, the multi-crises experienced by Nigeria and other developing countries over the past five years should have spurred a broader response from the international development community to avoid or slow down the food price increases and other disruptions in the food system that have occurred. There is an opportunity (and imperative) for WFP, AfDB, and their partners to seek solutions that kickstart and promote recovery and transformation, even under the current fluid security context. WFP launched the concept in January 2024, developing it collaboratively for effective implementation. In partnership with IFPRI, WFP formed a study team and co- designed the study approach following scoping workshops with key stakeholders in March and April 2024 in Kano and Maiduguri. These workshops enhanced the understanding of major supply sources and market corridors in the region, allowing participants to update essential information on food production, supply chains, and trade routes. Outputs included production, market, and trade flow maps for each commodity. The study featured three components: mapping the food supply system, analysing the cost build- up for production, transportation, and processing, and conducting price analysis. INTRODUCTION 21 Conflict and food systems in Northern Nigeria Northern Nigeria’s agricultural landscape is rooted in centuries-old cultivation and land management practices. Shaped by the region’s distinctive agroecological, climatic, and socio-cultural features (Barau et al., 2015), the Northeast - encompassing Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe states - plays a vital role in national food security. It produces staple crops such as millet, sorghum, maize, and rice, along with livestock and freshwater fisheries (Badewa & Dinbabo, 2023). Nigeria’s national policy framework acknowledges that climate change poses a major threat to food security, given the country’s heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture (FMARD, 2022). Over two decades of violent conflict, combined with escalating climate shocks, have severely threatened agri-food systems, livelihoods, and food security in Northern Nigeria. Conflicts have severely disrupted agriculture in Northern Nigeria, creating a reinforcing cycle of violence and food insecurity known as the ‘conflict- food security nexus’ (Adelaja & George, 2019). Farmer-herder conflicts, worsened by climate change and resource competition, continue to destabilise agricultural output and market activities (Usman & Nichol, 2022). Over 90 percent of Nigeria’s agricultural production is rain-fed, making farmers highly vulnerable to erratic rainfall and extreme weather events (AfDB, 2016). Shifting rainfall patterns and frequent droughts are already placing future crop and livestock production at heightened risk (WFP, 2023). These climate shocks exacerbate existing food supply challenges, underscoring the urgency for climate-informed planning. Decision-makers are pressed to integrate climate risk assessments into agricultural development, ensuring that policies and investments explicitly address drought resilience, flood management, and other climate-related hazards in the food system. By recognising these risks in policy (as Nigeria has done), planners can prioritise adaptive measures where they are needed most. This climate-risk perspective sets the stage for targeted interventions to protect yields and rural livelihoods in the face of a changing climate (FMARD, 2022). Environmental stressors such as rainfall variability, droughts, and desertification further threaten productivity, especially in the Northern Sahelian zone (Tofa et al., 2021; Nigerian Meteorological Agency, 2023). Additionally, the displacement of over 2.2 million people has strained resources in host communities, undermining food production (OCHA, 2024). Displaced populations face barriers to farming, and increased demand for scarce resources has further destabilised the region’s food systems. This report is structured to guide readers through each aspect of the study and its findings. The next section provides the study context, followed by study objectives and research questions in sections 2 and 3. Section 4 details the study components and methodologies. Section 5 presents research findings, covering the mapping and analysis of the eight commodities: and cost build-up analysis by commodity and value chain actors, and the price analysis. Section 6 concludes with policy recommendations. The annexes provide supplementary information, namely field instruments for both quantitative and qualitative field work, and the sampling strategy for the qualitative part. A case study on sorghum is provided as a separate document. 22 Food price inflation in Nigeria Farmers in Northern Nigeria face immense barriers to agricultural investment, with poverty rates surpassing 70 percent in some states. Limited access to financial services and restrictive land tenure systems further hinders agricultural development (Ikhuoso et al., 2020; Balana & Oyeyemi, 2022). Gender inequalities exacerbate these challenges, as women farmers encounter disproportionate obstacles in accessing resources and markets (Pierotti et al., 2022). The cumulative impact of conflict, displacement, environmental stress, and socio-economic barriers has severely weakened food supply chains in the region (Fadare et al., 2024). Restricted access to food markets, transportation disruptions, and the abandonment of traditional trade routes have driven up food transportation costs, exerting upward pressure on food prices. These disruptions have hit perishable goods especially hard, with post-harvest losses exceeding 50 percent in some areas (Balana et al., 2022). The National Bureau of Statistics reported a sharp rise in food inflation, with the Food Price Index reaching 40.87 percent in June 2024, up from 25.9 percent in June 2023 (NBS, 2024). Farmer-herder conflicts have become a significant and persistent challenge in Northern Nigeria, exacerbated by competition over land, water, and other natural resources. These conflicts, often fuelled by climate change, population growth, and weak resource governance, have led to widespread displacement, destruction of farmland, and loss of livestock. The resulting insecurity has disrupted agricultural production, undermined food supply chains, and heightened food insecurity in a region already grappling with economic and environmental vulnerabilities. The food system in Northern Nigeria suffers multiple cascading effects from these conflicts. Farmers face reduced access to arable land and irrigation resources, while herders struggle with restricted grazing routes and water sources. These disruptions limit productivity, destabilise rural economies, and weaken the linkages between producers, processors, and markets. The prolonged nature of these conflicts has also discouraged investments in agriculture, further constraining the sector’s potential for recovery and growth. In addition to conflict-induced disruptions, climate change is increasingly exacerbating food system vulnerabilities in Northern Nigeria. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and extreme weather patterns such as droughts and floods are affecting agricultural productivity, particularly for staple crops like maize, millet, and sorghum. These climate-induced shocks disrupt supply chains, further exacerbating food price inflation and reducing the resilience of smallholder farmers. Future food system interventions must integrate climate risk assessments to build resilience against these compounding challenges. The steep rise in staple food prices in 2023 and 2024 highlights Nigeria’s economic pressures, regional disparities, and food system vulnerabilities. Food price inflation has become a critical challenge, deeply affecting household welfare and national food security (Emediegwu, 2024). Soaring food costs have placed immense strain on household incomes, particularly for low-income families struggling to afford basic food items (Akerele et al., 2024). Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, 2024) underscore the sharp rise in essential food prices across Nigeria. The average price of 1 kilogram of brown cowpea jumped 125.43 percent year-on-year, from Naira 615.67 in April 2023 to Naira1,387.90 in April 2024, with a 12.44 percent month-on-month increase. Similarly, 1 kilogram of tomatoes rose by 131.58 percent, from Naira 485.10 to Naira 1,123.41, with a 17.06 percent increase from March 2024. White maize grain saw a 130.08 percent rise, reaching Naira 797.61 in April 2024 from Naira 346.67 a year prior. Regional price disparities are evident, with higher food costs in southern Nigeria, likely due to concentrated production and humanitarian efforts in the north. For example, cowpea prices averaged Naira 1,594.84 per kilogram in the north central and Naira 1,579.64 per kilogram in the south zone, compared to Naira 966.90 per kilogram in the Northwest. Similarly, the South-south region recorded the highest average price for white maize at Naira1,689.40 per kilogram, followed by the southwest at Naira1,429.06 per kilogram, while the Northwest had the lowest price at Naira 615.54 per kilogram. 23 Several factors are fuelling inflation in Nigeria’s food market. The removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the Naira have sharply increased costs across the supply chain (IMF, 2024). Rising transportation and energy expenses, coupled with climate-related disruptions like floods and droughts, have intensified the crisis. Flooding has damaged extensive cropland, while dry spells in Northern Nigeria have stunted production, creating supply shortages and pushing prices higher (Sanusi & Dries, 2024). Additionally, insecurity in key food-producing regions continues to disrupt farming and distribution networks, further adding to inflationary pressures (Amare et al., 2023). The Nigerian government has taken steps to counter inflation, focusing on monetary tightening policies, including raising interest rates (IMF, 2024). These actions have not significantly reduced food inflation. Addressing structural issues is crucial for stabilising the food system, particularly by improving rural infrastructure, boosting agricultural productivity, ensuring access to affordable inputs, and strengthening distribution networks (Thomas & Turk, 2023). Without comprehensive reforms and strategic investments, price volatility may persist, threatening food security and economic stability. Investment in productivity-enhancing agricultural technologies, infrastructure development, and security measures is vital to building a more resilient food system. This report highlights the urgent need for transformative actions to strengthen Nigeria’s food systems amid mounting challenges. Addressing the country’s food security issues requires a multifaceted approach that considers economic, social, and environmental factors. As conflict, climate shocks, and inflation continue to disrupt food production and distribution, stabilising the food system is essential for national welfare and resilience. Through detailed analysis and targeted recommendations, this report offers insights for policymakers, stakeholders, and development partners on building a more sustainable and resilient food system in Nigeria. INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS24 WFP has been a major operator in Northern Nigeria for close to 10 years, delivering life-saving food assistance to communities grappling with conflict, displacement, climate shocks, and chronic food insecurity. 25 02 St ud y ob je ct iv es 26 This study provides an in-depth analysis of eight key commodities across Northern Nigeria, focusing on conflict- affected areas. It covers four staple cereals (sorghum, millet, maize, and wheat), two legumes (cowpeas and soybeans), groundnuts, and tomatoes. The study examines food production hubs, trade flows, transport routes, price trends, and supply chain costs. It also analyses the role of producers, transporters, processors and traders in key value chains within major market centres in the BAY states (Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe) and strategic corridors such as Kano, Potiskum, Kaduna, Zaria, Maiduguri, and Yola. It also considers connections with other regions such as Lagos, Abuja, and Ibadan, and cross-border trade. The primary objectives of this study are to: (1) understand the structure and functioning of food systems in Northern Nigeria, focusing on conflict-affected Northeast Nigeria, and (2) identify key actions, such as policy changes, institutional innovations, and investments, that can strengthen food systems and contribute to agriculture-based recovery in conflict-affected areas. Study objectives C H A P T E R 0 2 27 What are the principal sources of food supply in Northern Nigeria? What are the major barriers to efficient trade and how are these barriers reflected in costs and returns of key food system activities production, transport, storage and handling, processing, retailing)? Through which trade corridors, and by which actors, are food commodities transported from major supply areas to key demand areas within and beyond the region? What have been price patterns and trends for the selected food commodities in recent years? What are the costs and returns associated with key food system activities such as production, transport, storage and handling, processing, retailing along the corridors for selected food commodities? Which policy reforms, institutional innovations, and investments could reduce costs, increase returns, and enhance the overall performance of the food system? To achieve these objectives, the study addressed the following research questions with reference to the eight key commodities: 28 29 03- Mapping the structure and functions of food supply chains - Cost build-up analysis - Market price analysis St ud y co m po ne nt s 30 The study comprises three components: (i) mapping the structure and functions of food supply chains; (ii) cost build-up analysis; and (iii) price analysis. Each component is described below. Mapping the structure and functions of food supply chains Cost build-up analysis Mapping of the structure and functions of food supply chains aimed to provide detailed physical and digital maps of the supply chains, covering major production areas, processing centres, distribution networks, and consumption points. The exercise was validated through consultations with key stakeholders. It included an assessment of production practices, the role of key actors along the value chains of selected commodities, major market linkages and trade routes, drivers of supply fluctuations such as climatic conditions and insecurity, and potential areas for improvement within the food supply chain. The cost build-up analysis involved a detailed breakdown of financial costs incurred by major actors along the food supply chain – namely producers, transporters, traders, and processors. The objective was to understand the cost structure associated with producing, transporting, processing and marketing selected food commodity. For example, this included estimating the cost of producing one hectare of sorghum or milling one metric ton of raw wheat and identifying how these costs are structured across different stages of the value chain. Such analysis can help food system actors to improve their financial performance and efficiency by identifying areas for improvement and government or development partners to make informed interventions or investment decisions to improve food systems in a cost-effective way. This study collected primary data on production, costs, and market information faced by actors along the selected commodity value chains and activities (production, transport, trading/marketing, and processing), and also used secondary production economics and market data obtained from various sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics, and the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS) for the cost build-up analysis. C H A P T E R 0 3 Study components 31 INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS Market price analysis The cost build-up analysis involved a detailed breakdown of financial costs incurred by major actors along the food supply chain – namely producers, transporters, traders, and processors. The objective was to understand the cost structure associated with producing, transporting, processing and marketing selected food commodity. For example, this included estimating the cost of producing one hectare of sorghum or milling one metric ton of raw wheat and identifying how these costs are structured across different stages of the value chain. Such analysis can help food system actors to improve their financial performance and efficiency by identifying areas for improvement and government or development partners to make informed interventions or investment decisions to improve food systems in a cost-effective way. This study collected primary data on production, costs, and market information faced by actors along the selected commodity value chains and activities (production, transport, trading/marketing, and processing), and also used secondary production economics and market data obtained from various sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics, and the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS) for the cost build-up analysis. 32 To effectively illustrate price trends, we aggregated the data across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones: North Central, North East, North West, South East, South South, and South West 33 04- Data collection - Data analysis - Contribution of the study M et ho do lo gi ca l ap pr oa ch es 34 The study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining both quantitative and qualitative analyses to capture expert and local knowledge of the food system, map food supply chains and analyse primary data on production costs and secondary data on food prices. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were conducted to assess the validity of the information obtained. The sequence of activities from March to September 2024 is described below. The study is envisioned within a fragility and resilience context. Northern Nigeria’s food system is deeply affected by its fragile context, where persistent insecurity, weak infrastructure, and climate variability exacerbate the impacts of food price shocks and rising transportation costs. These factors disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, including smallholder farmers, pastoralists, and low-income consumers, heightening food insecurity and economic instability in the region. Food price shocks, driven by conflict-related disruptions, inflation, and market inefficiencies, have eroded household purchasing power and restricted access to nutritious food. This situation is compounded by high transportation costs, which stem from poor road networks, fuel price volatility, and security risks along key trade routes. These challenges limit the movement of agricultural goods, inflate the cost of inputs, and create bottlenecks in supply chains, further driving up prices for producers and consumers alike. Applying a fragility and resilience lens to these issues highlights the need for targeted interventions that address both immediate and structural challenges. Enhancing the resilience of food systems requires investments in rural infrastructure, including roads and storage facilities, to reduce transportation costs and improve market access. Strengthening local food production and supply chains can help cushion the region against price shocks and reduce dependence on external markets. C H A P T E R 0 4 Methodological approaches 35 Data collection Mixed methods approach. A mixed methods approach integrated both qualitative and quantitative data and analysis. Quantitative primary data for the cost build-up analysis were collected using tailored instruments administered to farmers, processors, transporters, and traders in selected communities and markets. Additional quantitative data were sourced from secondary datasets, including WFP’s Research, Assessment and Monitoring (RAM) team, Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS), agricultural research institutions, IFPRI’s Dataverse, farmer associations, and market surveys. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth interviews with key supply chain actors and focus group discussions (FGDs), primarily with producers. Separate FGDs were conducted for various commodities, with diverse groups of farmers, including women and youth. Data collection focus areas. Data collection focused on three conflict-affected states in the Northeast—Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (the BAY states)—where WFP has a significant operational presence. Additional data were collected in Kano and Zaria in Kaduna state given their strategic importance in regional food supply chains and logistics. Quantitative data. Structured data collection instruments (see annex 1) were used to capture primary data on production, costs, and market information for selected commodities. Customised survey tools were developed to collect cost build-up data for producers, processors, transporters, and traders. Value chain actors, particularly transporters and traders, were identified through consultations with WFP-Nigeria (Abuja, Kano, and Maiduguri). A total of 78 respondents participated in the quantitative study, including 61 farmers, 10 food traders, three processors, and four transporters. Qualitative data. Food system actors (farmers, transporters, processors, and traders) for the qualitative study in Kano, Kaduna/Zaria, Borno, and Adamawa were identified through IFPRI’s existing connections in the study areas and a list of traders and transporters from WFP. Farmers’ groups in Kano and Adamawa were selected in consultation with local partners based on their production of target crops. For example, three local government areas in Kano-Kiru (sorghum, millet, maize), Tofa (soybeans, groundnut), and Bunkure (tomato) are high-production areas for these commodities. Interviews were recorded, translated from Hausa to English, and transcribed. To maintain anonymity, all participants were assigned unique ID codes, and no personally identifying information was retained. Respondent overview. The qualitative study included a total of 65 respondents, comprising 50 farmers across seven focus group discussions and 15 key informants, including food traders, processors, and transporters. 36 Data analysis Contribution of the study Data organisation and analysis. Data were organised and analysed to identify patterns, trends, and specific concerns for sorghum, millet, maize, cowpea, wheat, soybeans, groundnuts, and tomatoes in Northern Nigeria. Statistical tools and mapping techniques were used to visualise information effectively. Market dynamics, including price fluctuations, demand, and supply trends, were examined, along with production data, such as acreage, yield, and cropping patterns. Quantitative analysis. The quantitative analysis consisted of two parts: cost build-up and price analysis. The cost build-up analysis for producers was based on primary data regarding the production costs of the eight selected commodities. An ‘inputs-based’ costing approach was used, organising production costs into categories: land rental, inorganic fertiliser, organic fertiliser, seeds, agro- chemicals, and machinery. This approach allocated expenses to activities, providing precise cost data. Key cost items for food traders included grain purchase, transportation, cleaning and packaging, interest on capital and warehousing. For food transporters, vehicle rental and labour were the main costs, while for processors, raw material costs, labour, and utilities were primary. Cost build-ups are presented through bar graphs and descriptive tables. For price analysis, trends and spatial differences in food prices were examined to understand price evolution over time and across states, highlighting any significant disparities. By analysing these trends, the study sought to identify patterns that might align with WFP interventions. Given Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, it was assumed that trade and market integration would be stronger within each zone. Therefore, average prices for each zone were expected to reflect trends in individual states accurately. Results are displayed through descriptive statistics and trend line graphs. Qualitative analysis. Qualitative data were analysed using standard methods. Transcripts were uploaded into MaxQDA for thematic coding. A common codebook was initially developed, with updates as new themes emerged. Texts were grouped by codes and analysed to identify recurring themes across various characteristics. This study provides a groundbreaking contribution to understanding the food supply chains in Northern Nigeria by moving beyond broad, generalised analyses to a detailed, component-based investigation. By employing a cost build-up analysis alongside supply chain mapping and price analysis, the research delves deeply into the individual links and interactions within the supply chain. This method captures the precise costs, logistics, and bottlenecks at each stage of the supply process, from production and processing to distribution and retail. The granular insights generated from this approach enable the formulation of specific recommendations that reflect the realities on the ground. For example, instead of general recommendations for improving food access or reducing costs across the entire Nigerian food system, the study might pinpoint specific, actionable changes, such as reducing transportation fees in particular regions, optimising distribution networks for key commodities, or addressing inefficiencies in storage facilities in specific locales. Such tailored recommendations are essential for policy makers, local businesses, and development partners seeking to implement effective, context-specific interventions. This study’s focus on the finer details of the supply chain enables a level of precision in its recommendations that aggregated national analyses cannot achieve, making it an invaluable resource for practical, effective improvements in regional food security and resilience. 37 INVESTING IN INNOVATIVE FOOD SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS IN CHALLENGING CONTEXTS A FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN MAPPING AND ANALYSIS 05 - Food supply mapping - Cost build-up analysis - Findings from the market price analysis - Barriers to efficient trade in key food supply chains in Northern Nigeria - Emergent investment opportunities for food systems transformation - Illustrative high-potential investment opportunities Fi nd in gs 38 Findings C H A P T E R 0 5 This section presents the food supply chain mapping of eight-focus commodities: sorghum, millet, maize, wheat, cowpeas, soybeans, groundnut and tomatoes. Using maps generated from state-level production data and ground-truthing, the section discusses the supply chain of these commodities under the following headings: production, demand, marketing, processing, with concluding sub-sections on constraints and opportunities for the respective commodity value chain. Food supply chains in Northern Nigeria are increasingly vulnerable to climate-induced risks, including prolonged dry spells, excessive rainfall, and rising temperatures. For instance, droughts have led to reduced yields in millet and cowpea production, while flooding has negatively impacted tomato supply chains. These climate shocks not only disrupt production but also affect transportation and storage, leading to increased post-harvest losses and price volatility. Understanding these vulnerabilities is critical for designing targeted interventions that enhance food system resilience. Food supply mapping 39 Sorghum is a key crop in Nigeria’s agriculture, ranking as the second-largest global producer after the United States. It is predominantly cultivated in the Northern regions, particularly in Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Bauchi and Zamfara States, benefiting from the semi-arid climate. Sorghum is also produced at varying levels in neighbouring states such as Sokoto, Kebbi, Jigawa and Yobe which serve as additional supply zones. This is shown in Figure 1. The crop’s drought resilience and ability to thrive in poor soil conditions make it ideal for these regions. Government initiatives have bolstered sorghum production, focusing on boosting productivity and ensuring food security. However, production faces challenges, including erratic rainfall, pest infestations, and limited access to modern farming techniques. Traditional farming methods, still widely used, limit yields. Despite these challenges, Nigeria is expected to produce approximately 6.4 metric tons in the 2023/2024 season, with an average yield of around 1.2 metric tons per hectare, consistent over recent years. Sorghum follows a single season cropping calendar in Nigeria, with planting during the rainy season (June to July) and harvesting from October to December. This schedule aligns with the semi-arid climate, making timing crucial for optimising yield. Production S o rg h u m Sorghum Findings Food supply mapping Millet Maize Wheat Cowpea Soybeans Groundnut Tomato Sorghum production areas, markets and transportation routes in Northern Nigeria Source: World Food Programme (WFP) Logistics Sector. 40 Sorghum processing in Nigeria occurs at both homestead and industrial levels. At the household level, sorghum is processed into flour for traditional dishes and beverages. Industrial processing is more mechanised, transforming sorghum into products like malt, flour, and beer. Major companies, such as Nigerian Breweries, Sona Malting and Derivatives, among others rely on sorghum as a key ingredient. The crop’s versatility as a food and industrial raw material underscores its value in Nigeria’s agricultural landscape, with growing demand both domestically and internationally. Processing Demand Sorghum is in high demand across Nigeria for its diverse applications in food, feed, and industrial processes. It is a staple food in Northern regions, used in traditional dishes like tuwo (a thick porridge made from dry-milled, nonfermented grain flour eaten with soup), kunu (a flour paste made by wet milling after fermentation and cooked like a thin porridge) and is a key ingredient in poultry feed due to its nutritional content. The food processing industry is increasingly incorporating sorghum into various products, driven by the need for affordable, nutritious options for low-income households. The industrial demand for sorghum is also rising, especially in the production of flour, malt, and beer, supporting the growth of Nigeria’s food and beverage industry. Other future sorghum values are recognised in the country, including as raw material for the biofuel industries (GAIN, 2020). Stalks, husks, and other by-products are also used as fuel and feed. Marketing Sorghum is a primary trading commodity in Northern Nigeria. Retailers and wholesalers play critical roles in sorghum marketing, especially in urban areas where demand is highest. Major marketers purchase sorghum in bulk and supply it to processing companies, using controlled storage facilities to Constraints Despite its importance, the sorghum supply chain faces several challenges. Environmental factors like erratic rainfall, soil degradation, and pest infestations, along with high input costs and limited access to finance, hamper production. The lack of adequate storage facilities and efficient transportation networks further exacerbates these issues, leading to post-harvest losses and price volatility. Policy-related challenges, including trade policies and land tenure systems, also impact the sector. Opportunities Despite these challenges, there are significant opportunities to grow the sorghum sector, including government-led initiatives and partnerships with international organisations aimed at enhancing productivity and sustainability. The rising demand for sorghum-based products presents opportunities for expanding production and processing capacities, supporting both domestic consumption and export potential. The promotion of value addition through product diversification, strengthening farmer organisations to improve market access, and enhancing linkages between farmers and industrial users of sorghum. Additionally, there is growing interest in the use of sorghum for biofuel production, which could create new market opportunities for farmers. minimise post-harvest losses. The Federal Government, NGOs, and international organisations support the supply chain by providing farmers with training and resources. However, recent fuel cost increases have driven up transportation expenses, affecting prices. The major trade corridors are the Kano-Kaduna-Zaria corridor (being a major collection and distribution hub, more specifically, the Dawanau grain market) and the Bauchi-Yobe-Borno axis. Sorghum also moves across export corridors towards Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, especially from border states like Sokoto and Borno. 41 In 2022, global millet output reached an estimated 30.6 million tons. Although over 93 countries cultivate millets, significant production is concentrated in just a few countries. India leads, accounting for 39 percent of the world’s millet production, with Niger (11percent) and China (9 percent). Nigeria, contributing about 6.5 percent, ranks highest in West Africa’s millet production.1 Over recent decades, most millet-producing Low-and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) have seen a decline in cultivation. This is attributed to shifts towards other staple crops, evolving dietary preferences, and the assured returns from major commercial crops (Meena et al. 2021). Only a handful of countries, notably China, have managed to increase their millet production levels. From Figure 2, the main supply areas are Yobe, Borno, Bauchi and Jigawa states. Other states include Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina and Kano. Production M ill et Demand Across West Africa’s Sahel region, millet is used in various traditional dishes such as kunu (thin gruel), masa (fried cakes), fura (pounded whole grain balls eaten with milk), ogi or akamu/kamu (thick porridge), and burukutu (alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages including beer). Millet flour is also used to make tuwo, a thick paste. The plant’s stem is used in construction, while its green parts and outer seed layer serve as animal feed. Approximately 80 percent of millet Sorghum Findings Food supply mapping Millet Maize Wheat Cowpea Soybeans Groundnut Tomato Millet production areas, markets and transportation routes in Northern Nigeria Source: World Food Programme (WFP) Logistics Sector. 42 As mentioned earlier, millet is processed into various products ranging from food to feed. However, apart from feed millers and a few food processors, not very much industrial processing is recorded. Examples of millet processors in Nigeria include Nestle and Dala Foods. Whereas Nestle produces various forms of food with millet as part of the main constituents, Dala Food processes millet into already- known local foods like burabusko (a form of millet grits), kunu (a millet gruel) and fura (a kind of millet based-oat) flours both popular in Nigeria. Most millet processing is done either in the household (in rural areas) or in cottage milling firms (in urban centres). Processing Marketing The main market centres for millet in Northern Nigeria are Dawanau (an assembly and wholesale market), Maiduguri (major assembly and wholesale market), Jos (retail and wholesale market), Gombe (an assembly and wholesale market), Potiskum (assembly and wholesale market), Funtua (retail and wholesale market), Jibia (an assembly and wholesale market), Illela (a retail and wholesale market), Maigatari (an assembly and wholesale market) and Ngalda (assembly and wholesale market). The most prominent trade corridor for millet is the North-South Corridor, which consists of several routes. Kano (Dawanau) to Lagos: a major flow originates from Kano, moving southward through cities like Zaria and Kaduna, eventually reaching Lagos. This represents the movement of millet from the major production areas in the north to the largest consumer market in the south. Maiduguri to Port Harcourt: Another significant flow starts from Maiduguri in the Northeast, passing through Jos and heading towards Port Harcourt in the south. This route connects the northeastern production zones with southeastern markets. Another corridor connects Maiduguri to markets in the Northwest like Kano and Katsina. This suggests intra-regional trade within the Northern production zones, possibly balancing supply, and demand across different areas. There are also border trade movements, particularly Niger Republic, potentially exporting surplus millet. Constraints Millet value chain actors are confronted with underinvestment, high marketing costs, unstructured markets, and millet’s old stigma as a poor person’s food (Resnick et. al., 2020). Significant production limitations persist, such as restricted availability of modern tools and technology, like high-quality seeds and enhanced cultivars, as well as high rates of pests, illnesses, and weed infestation. There are few modern processing facilities and labour-intensive, time- consuming traditional post-harvest processing techniques such dehulling (Meena et al., 2021). Opportunities The global resurgence of interest in millets is linked to various factors, including recurring droughts in Africa, the impact of the war in Ukraine on global food and fertiliser prices, and growing awareness of the environmental impact of wheat, rice, and maize cultivation. There is potential for micro-businesses in the millet sector to expand into small and medium enterprises, creating job opportunities for young people and women entrepreneurs. International organisations are advocating for increased millet production due to the crop’s ability to thrive in hot, drought-prone areas. The growing support for millet value chains from both public and private sectors highlights the crop’s potential to improve farmers’ livelihoods, enhance nutrition for consumers across economic spectrums, contribute to climate change adaptation, promote sustainable agriculture, and create a more resilient food system. The CGIAR’s HarvestPlus programme is spearheading efforts to breed and distribute micronutrient-rich crop varieties, including pearl millet, through partnerships in developing countries. In West Africa, open- pollinated varieties (OPVs) with higher iron and zinc content have been tested in several countries. Since 2014, two OPVs and nine hybrids of pearl millet have been released in India, Niger, and Nigeria. 1https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/cropview/commodityView. aspx?cropid=0459100 and https://www.indexmundi.com/ agriculture/?commodity=millet&graph=production produced goes to human food, with the remainder used for animal feed and brewing. Stalks, husks, and other by-products are also used as fuel and feed. 43 Maize is a major cereal crop in Nigeria. The country stands out as the largest maize producer on the continent and ranks 10th globally, with production reaching approximately 12.8 million metric tons in 2020 (FAO, 2021). Key maize-producing states include Kano, Niger, Adamawa, Taraba, Plateau, Kaduna, Bauchi, Nasarawa, Kebbi, Kwara, FCT, and parts of Borno, Benue, Katsina, Jigawa, Zamfara, and Kogi (See Figure 3). The national average yield is about 2.2 tons per hectare, which is stable but lower than the potential 10 tons per hectare achievable with better farming practices and improved hybrid varieties. Nigeria’s maize follows two main cropping seasons: wet season (April-June planting, August-October harvest) and dry season (October-February planting, February-April harvest), with the majority of production coming from the wet season. Recent government policies, such as a 150-day duty-free window for maize imports, aim to address food inflation, though the impact on local production remains uncertain. Production M ai ze Maize production areas, markets and transportation routes in Northern Nigeria Source: World Food Programme (WFP) Logistics Sector. Sorghum Findings Food supply mapping Millet Maize Wheat Cowpea Soybeans Groundnut Tomato 44 Maize processing in Nigeria occurs at both homestead and industrial levels. At home, maize is milled into flour for traditional dishes like tuwo and snacks like pap or akamu. This process is often manual and labour- intensive but essential for household food security. Industrial processing is highly mechanised, converting maize into products like flour, beer, malt drinks, cornflakes, starch, syrup, dextrose, and animal feeds. Significant players in this sector include Flour Mills of Nigeria (FMN) and Nagari Seeds Nigeria. ProcessingDemand Demand for maize in Nigeria is substantial, driven by its role in food security, animal feed, and industrial uses. Annual consumption is around 15 million metric tons, with significant portions used for food, feed, and industrial purposes, such as in flour, corn syrup, and starch production. The poultry industry is a major consumer, and maize is a staple in most Nigerian households. Stalks, husks, and other by-products are also used as fuel and feed. Marketing Maize marketing in Nigeria is dominated by small-scale farmers who rely on middlemen, which reduces profit margins due to added costs and inefficiencies. The marketing chain typically involves farmgate buyers, village market aggregators, urban buyers, transporters, company buyers, and processors. Price volatility remains a significant challenge, contributing to financial instability for farmers and limiting their ability to plan and invest in future production cycles. In response, government initiatives such as the Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP), have sought to improve agricultural productivity and market access for smallholder farmers. The main market corridors are the Kano-Kaduna-Abuja axis, Sokoto- Kebbi-Niger axis, and Maiduguri-Yobe-Bauchi axis. Key demand centres include cities like Kano, Kaduna, Zaria, Bauchi, and Maiduguri, among others. There is also significant, though unofficial, maize export to Niger and Cameroon. Constraints Despite government efforts, the maize supply chain faces significant challenges. Insecurity, particularly in the Northeast and recently in Kaduna, Niger, Taraba, and Plateau states, is a major issue. Other challenges include inadequate infrastructure, limited irrigation, insufficient storage, restricted access to improved seeds and finance for smallholders, and price volatility. Environmental factors and outdated technology further hinder the supply chain. Opportunities Maize production presents opportunities for economic growth and food security in Nigeria. The rising demand for maize in food and industry, including the expanding poultry and livestock sectors, offers significant growth potential. Investing in agricultural technologies and improved farming practices can boost yields and farmer incomes. There is also potential for value- added processing and exports. Developing agro-processing facilities can enhance the maize value chain, producing higher- value products like corn oil, cornmeal, and ethanol, which can fetch better prices domestically and internationally. 45 Wheat is a crucial staple in Nigeria, yet domestic production falls far short of meeting demand, leading to significant imports. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), wheat is the country’s third most consumed grain after maize and rice. However, local production satisfies only 1 percent of the 5–6 million metric tons consumed annually, valued at over USD 2 billion (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2024). Wheat is cultivated exclusively through irrigation from November to March, primarily in the Northern states of Jigawa, Kebbi, Kano, Bauchi, Yobe, Gombe, Borno, Adamawa, Plateau, Sokoto, Katsina, and Kaduna, where the semi-arid climate supports growth as shown in Figure 4. Production in the Northeast has declined sharply due to insurgency and inadequate irrigation infrastructure. To address this gap, the Federal Government of Nigeria, through the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (FMASFS), has launched the 2023/2024 Dry Season Wheat Farming Program under the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro Pocket (NAGS-AP) project. This initiative aims to increase wheat production capacity, curb food inflation, and advance self-sufficiency. Additionally, the Seeds for the Future programme—a collaboration between Olam Agri Nigeria, the Lake Chad Research Institute (LCRI), and the International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) focuses on enhancing wheat production. This programme seeks to develop new wheat seed varieties suited to local conditions, support smallholder farmers, promote modern agronomic practices, and scale up high- quality seed production. Together, these government and private sector efforts are positioned to make meaningful progress toward wheat self-sufficiency and improved food security in Nigeria. Production W h ea t Wheat production areas, markets and transportation routes in Northern Nigeria Source: World Food Programme (WFP) Logistics Sector. Sorghum Findings Food supply mapping Millet Maize Wheat Cowpea Soybeans Groundnut Tomato 46 Nigeria has a growing milling industry, with several large-scale flour mills operating primarily in urban centres (Chinenye, 2015). These mills process both domestically produced and imported wheat into flour for various end- uses, including bread, pasta, and confectionery products (Adegbite & Adegbite, 2021). The leading flour millers in the country are Flour Mills of Nigeria (FMN), Northern Nigeria Flour Mills (NNFM), OLAM-Crown Flour Mill, Honeywell Flour Mills, Dufil-Pure Flour Mills, and Life Flour Mills, Dangote flour Mills, Crown Flour Mills, Jos Flour Mills, Port Harcourt Flour Mills. Processing Demand The demand for wheat and wheat- based products has grown significantly in recent years, driven by changing dietary preferences, urbanisation, and population growth. The primary consumers of wheat flour in Nigeria are bakeries, which produce a wide range of products such as bread, pastries, and other baked goods. Bread is a staple food in Nigeria, consumed by millions daily. Other significant consumers include households, restaurants, and food processing companies that produce noodles, pasta, and other wheat-based products. Nigerians consume a variety of wheat- based products daily, with bread being the most popular. Other flour products commonly used in Nigerian households include cake, biscuit, pasta, spaghetti, pancake, Danwake, Waina, Alkhubs, Gurasa, Khubza, and as additives to many other foods. According to the World Bank data, an average Nigerian consumes about 28 kilograms of wheat products per year2 Marketing Nigeria faces significant dependency on wheat imports due to its domestic production deficit. In 2020, the country’s wheat imports were valued at over USD2.15 billion, marking a 40 percent increase from the previous year. This positioned Nigeria as the fourth-largest wheat importer globally, following Egypt, China, and Turkey (Balana et al., 2022). Wheat represents the country’s largest import expenditure after petroleum products (petrol and diesel) and stands Constraints Opportunities Nigeria’s wheat sector presents several compelling investment opportunities. With the country’s production of certified, high- yielding seeds still limited, there is significant potential for investors to support the development of improved wheat varieties and scale up seed production. Additionally, setting up a specialised commodity exchange for wheat grain could help streamline the supply chain, reducing costs and inefficiencies for processors. Importantly, the strong forecast for continued growth in wheat consumption in Nigeria underscores the need for expanded production and more robust logistics. Lastly, investment in modern grain storage infrastructure would help mitigate post-harvest losses and ensure a more stable wheat supply year- round. By capitalising on these opportunities, investors can play a pivotal role in bolstering Nigeria’s wheat self-sufficiency and food security. as the most imported food item (National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 2021). The major wheat suppliers to Nigeria include Lithuania, Latvia, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. While this import reliance ensures adequate wheat supply for domestic consumption, it also makes the country vulnerable to global price fluctuations and international trade policies. The wheat import market is dominated by several major milling companies, including Flour Mills of Nigeria (FMN), Dangote Flour Mills, Honeywell Flour Mills, Olam Nigeria, Crown Flour Mills, and BUA Group. The challenges facing wheat production in Nigeria are several. Climate change and variability pose significant threats, with increasing temperatures and unpredictable rainfall patterns affecting crop yields. Limited access to improved, heat-tolerant wheat varieties and inadequate irrigation infrastructure further constrain production. Additionally, poor soil fertility, pest, and disease pressures, and limited mechanisation contribute to low productivity (Tadesse et al., 2018). 2https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.CON.WHEAT.PC 47 West Africa accounts for approximately 95 percent of global production, with Nigeria being the largest producer and consumer (Phillip et al., 2019). According to FAOSTAT, in 2021, Nigeria had the highest cowpea production of 3.63 million metric tons across an extensive area harvested of 4.7 million hectares. Niger followed closely with 2.66 million metric tons produced, with a larger area harvested of 5.97 million hectares. The map in Figure 5 indicates that cowpea production is predominantly concentrated in Northern Nigeria, with varying production capacities. Notable production areas are Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, and parts of Kano, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, and parts of Bauchi, Adamawa, Taraba, and some areas of North Central Nigeria. This production pattern aligns with the suitable agro-ecological conditions of the Northern region, particularly the Sudan and Sahel savanna zones. Production C o w p ea Demand In Nigeria, cowpea demand is predominantly for household use, with minimal demand from the industrial sector. Almost all Nigerian households incorporate cowpea into their meals, whether as a main dish or a component of other recipes. For example, popular cowpea-based dishes include Moimoi and Akara, which are widely enjoyed throughout the country. Additionally, rice and beans (a Cowpea production areas, markets and transportation routes in Northern Nigeria Source: World Food Programme (WFP) Logistics Sector. Sorghum Findings Food supply mapping Millet Maize Wheat Cowpea Soybeans Groundnut Tomato 48 Cowpea processing in Nigeria is primarily done at home or in small cottage milling facilities scattered throughout towns as confirmed by the participants. Recently, there has been an emergence of processors producing cowpea flour for retail in stores and supermarkets, although this practice has not yet gained widespread popularity. Some of these processors include Ayoola Foods and Lifeberg Foods located in Lagos, and Helencia Foods in Abuja. These emerging processors aim to provide a more convenient option for consumers and potentially tap into urban markets where demand for ready-to-use products is increasing. However, the traditional home processing methods continue to dominate due to their deep- rooted cultural acceptance and accessibility. Processing Marketing The cowpea market in Nigeria is largely dominated by informal traders (unregistered enterprises, usually small holdings). Cowpeas are widely available in urban markets across Nigeria, both in the Northern and southern regions. Main market centres are Dawanau Market in Kano serving as the primary hub for cowpeas trade in Northern Nigeria. Other major markets are strategically located across the region, including Maigatari Market in Jigawa, Potiskum Market in Yobe, Maiduguri Monday Market in Borno, and Illela Market in Sokoto. These markets are characterised by substantial storage facilities and high trading volumes. There are also numerous secondary markets that serve as collection points from farming communities and facilitate distribution to larger markets. The major trade corridors are the north-south routes connecting Northern production zones to southern consumption centres, passing through key cities like Zaria, Kaduna, and Abuja. Also, inter-state routes linking major markets within the Northern region, facilitating regional trade flow. Additionally, a significant quantity is Constraints Despite being a leading producer, cowpea productivity in Nigeria faces several challenges. Pest infestations, particularly the Maruca pod borer, pose a significant threat to yields. Climate variability, including irregular rainfall patterns and drought, also affects production (Sindhu et al., 2019). Limited access to Opportunities Opportunities for improving the cowpea supply chain include the availability of high-yielding, pest- resistant varieties, support from government and donor agencies, advanced training in Integrated Pest Management (IPM), increasing domestic demand, export potential, value-added activities, and climate- smart agriculture practices. Another important factor that could enhance the production of cowpeas is access to finance for the expansion of cultivation and purchase of inputs. To tap into these opportunities requires a coordinated effort between government, donors, NGOs, and CBOs. exported to neighbouring Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. combination of boiled rice and beans) is a common meal across Nigeria. Nigeria’s per capita consumption of cowpea is estimated to be around 23 kilograms per year. In comparison, other African nations and global averages tend to have lower per capita consumption rates. For instance, Niger averages around 9 kilograms per year, and Burkina Faso averages 7 kilograms per year. The global average per capita consumption of cowpea is significantly lower, around 1 - 2 kilograms per year3. improved seeds, fertilisers, and modern farming techniques further constrain productivity. Additionally, most cowpea farmers in Nigeria are smallholders with limited resources, which affects their ability to invest in productivity-enhancing inputs and technologies (Nwagboso et al., 2024). Post-harvest handling and storage are critical stages in the cowpea value chain. Traditional storage methods, such as the use of local granaries or bags, are still prevalent among smallholder farmers. Other issues include limited market information, the dominance of middlemen (due to the number of value chain actors between the farmers and the consumers), lack of quality standards, limited value-addition activities. 3https://www.aatf-africa.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ Cowpeabrief.pdf 49 Nigeria is the second largest producer of soybeans in Africa; the country’s main soybean-growing states include Bauchi State, Kaduna, Kano, Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, Katsina, Kwara, Kogi, Oyo, Jigawa, and Federal Capital Territory (See Figure 6). The middle belt, which includes Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, and Kwara, has greater yields and accounts for 65 to 75 percent of the entire production (NIRSAL, 2022). According to current estimates, Nigeria’s annual soybean production falls short of 600,000 tons, despite the country’s demand for 2.2 million tons.4 Production Demand By 2027, it is anticipated that the worldwide soy food market, which was valued at USD 44.7 billion in 2021, will have grown to USD 60.7 billion. Although domestic producers’ supply has not kept up with industrial processing capacity, the market for soybeans processed industrially is nevertheless expanding at a rapid pace. Soybean oil is major source of salad oil used in households, serving as an affordable substitute for olive oil. Approximately half of the built capacity of soybean processing facilities is not being utilised (Santana et al., 2020). The industrial usefulness of soybeans encourages big producers to collaborate with regional smallholders to secure and increase domestic output. The biggest purchaser of Nigerian soybeans, Olam, released information about their partnership with the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) to increase farmers’ access to “tropicalised” IITA seed varieties (OLAM, 2018). Soybeans are processed locally by homes and businesses to produce S oy ab ea n s Soybeans production areas, markets and transportation routes in Northern Nigeria Source: World Food Programme (WFP) Logistics Sector. Sorghum Findings Food supply mapping Millet Maize Wheat Cowpea Soybeans Groundnut Tomato 50 There are various products along the soybean processing value Processing Marketing About 20 to 30 percent of chicken feed and 20 percent of fish feed are made of soybean meal, which is regarded as an ideal crop and a necessary and desirable source of protein in compound feed (NIRSAL, 2022). Though it is not a traditional staple meal like cowpeas, it is enjoyed throughout the region. The soybean trade corridors in Nigeria reveal a sophisticated network centre. The most intensive trading activity occurs in a central belt where production is highest, with major market hubs in Kaduna and Kano states serving as primary aggregation points. From these central markets, goods flow both