Better lives through livestock
Development of impact assessment modeling tools within the Livestock 
and Climate and Sustainable Animal Productivity Initiatives of the CGIAR
Sirak Bahta, Derek Chan, Joshua Aboah and Francis Wanyoike
Workshop to develop impact assessment modeling tools within the Livestock and Climate and Sustainable Animal 
Productivity Initiatives of the CGIAR, Dakar, Senegal, 9-10 November 2022
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Outline
• Livestock Master Plans (LMPs)
• Modeling improvement within LMPs
• Link to AICCRA and Initiatives (SAPLING & LCSR)
• Problem statement and Objective
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LMP Process Re-cap
Coalition of 
Change: 
LMP 
Consortium + Baseline/ 15 - year 5-year 
Country Livestock Livestock investment 
Experts, Sector Sector plans/  
Capacity analysis (LSA) Strategy (LSS) Roadmaps
Building,
Stakeholder 
Engagement
Four Main Outputs/Deliverables: 
• Capacity Building & Co-creation (data, tools, methods, analyses)
• Sector Assessments (trends, situation, policy analysis)
• Sector Strategy (foresight, scenario analysis)
• Investment Action Plan
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Livestock production zones and Species
- Livestock production zone calcification 
PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Small
GRASSLAND BACKYARD
Medium
Small
MIXED CROP- INTERMEDIATE
LIVESTOCK Medium
Medium
COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL
Large
FEEDLOT
RAIN-FED IRRIGATED
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Analyzing the current situation and gap
Scenario setting
Possible 
tradeoffs
Work with ABC
Environment/ Equity module
GHG module
Gender Employment Feed module
module module
BASELINE 
DATA: LSIPT, 
Multimarket/national models: 
ETC.
Primary data price effects, trade effects, market dynamics at 
sector/national level
LMP ROADMAPS
System 1
System 2
Production Herd/stock Farm and 
systems System 3 dynamics household 
(livestock (livestock analyses LIVESTOCK + FISHERIES
and fish) and fish)
System 4 SECTOR STRATEGIES
System 5
EX-ANTE IMPACT 
Value chain models: ASSESSMENT 
Secondary data price effects, market actor effects, technology MODELS OF 
adoption, feedbacks at specific chain level TECHNOLOGIES
Epidemiology Gender/social Environment/ Cashflow Business 
module equity module GHG module module model module
Work with AICRA
Source: Lie et al. (2017)
https://exchange.iseesystems.com/public/helene-lie/dairy-value-chain-
development-in-nicaragua/index.html#page1
Figure 4: Stakeholder impacts from alternative policy scenarios in the Botswana beef value chain (Dizyee K, Rich K, Bahta S, Baker D (2017)
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AICCRA
• Scaling up climate-smart agriculture and climate information 
services to smallholder farmers in Africa
• Focus on six countries: Senegal, Ghana, Mali, Ethiopia, Kenya and 
Zambia
• In Senegal: Model used to analyze the potential increase/reduction 
in productivity and emissions in scaling up changes in beef and dairy 
value chains
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LCSR initiative - “Livestock and Climate”
• Addresses “double burden” that climate change poses 
for livestock production:
• livestock are an important agricultural asset that is highly 
vulnerable to climate change
• yet livestock also contribute significant amounts of GHGe to 
the atmosphere
• Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Senegal, Mali, Guatemala and 
Colombia
• WP5 = policy influence
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Problem statement & Objectives
Problem statement
• Current tools don’t capture the complexity of environmental 
impacts and tradeoffs
Objectives
• To validate and improve our current model
• better understanding of the complexity and interaction within 
value chain
• Learn other experiences 
• deep dive on a few critical impact areas
• Build collaboration and next steps to advance this work
Thank you!
THANK YOU