WEF Nexus Advanced School Matthew McCartney Amman, 04/02/24 Nexus Gains Initiative: trade-offs and synergies realizing multiple benefits across water, energy, food and ecosystems 0 Water/Energy/Food/Environment (WEFE) Nexus Challenges in a Climate Crisis Source: Headey and Hirvonen (2022) using data from FAO, the World Bank and the IMF. www.cgiar.org It seems that joint food and energy crises have become the norm: Three have now occurred in just the last 15 years, driven by poor bioenergy policies, climate extremes, and other bad human decisions, leading to crisis triggers and multipliers, such as COVID-19 and the Russia- Ukraine war. The three recent food-fuel price crises demonstrate that food and energy systems are interlinked and that these systems, in turn, are affected by continuing degradation of the environment and water resources.  All three crises dramatically pushed up food and energy prices, as well as those of fertilizers, leading to an increase in the number of undernourished people worldwide. In 2021, 150 million more people hungry in 2021 compared to 2019. The initiative  analyzes alternative, practical interventions at different scales – from farms to watersheds to river basins – to enhance water, energy and food security and environmental sustainability. It seeks to improve understanding of WEFE interdependencies and trade-offs, engaging vulnerable groups such as women, youth and other marginalized communities that bear the brunt of poorly managed WEFE systems and have little say in decisions that affect them. NEXUS Gains is using integrated biophysical and socio-economic tools to support policy design, investment planning and improved governance. 1 Pursuing single sector objectives often hinders development Example: Increasing electricity production More abstraction of water for cooling Less water for other sectors and the environment Increased GHG emissions Less water security Less environmental security Example: Increasing agricultural production More land used for growing food Competition over land resources (eg.biofuels vs. crops as food) More use of agrochemicals Contamination of water resources Increased GHG emissions Less water security Less environmental security Need for a systematic WEF Nexus approach! Without consideration of other sector goals 2 NEXUS Gains Focus Basins: Limpopo/Incomati, Blue Nile, Aral Sea, Indus and Ganges Target countries: Ethiopia; India; Nepal; Pakistan; South Africa; Sudan; Uzbekistan; Zimbabwe Analyzing and scaling NEXUS interventions Foresight methodologies and trade-off analyses across sectors Boosting water productivity and integrated storage management across scales Decision support to enhance water use in agriculture Energizing food and water systems Business and finance models promoting inclusive access to clean energy Strengthening multi-stakeholder governance Improving multistakeholder governance across WEFE systems Developing WEFE capacity, including emerging women leaders Training resources for including on gender equality and social inclusion in nexus approaches www.cgiar.org Five WPs – all going well – all marked green in the traffic lights of the annual report Co-developing and scaling NEXUS innovations using foresight methodologies and trade-off analyse;  Boosting water productivity across scales (farm to watershed to basin) and sectors using a whole systems lens;  Energizing food and water systems sustainably and inclusively;   Strengthening cross-sectoral, multi-stakeholder governance at community, national and regional levels; and Develop technical (WEFE) and leadership capacity of emerging woman leaders   3 EOI1: Tradeoffs and synergies Pywr can simulate combined water and energy systems. Two-way communication between power system (electrical grid) simulation and water model. Investigate how hydropower & other technologies (thermal, wind, solar, biomass, hydrogen) reduce costs and increase reliability of essential and high value water and energy services. Operational (management) and long-term planning (infrastructure investment) can be optimized. Links to multi-objective optimization Water resource system simulator (Pywr) www.cgiar.org Water and energy modelling in the Incomati, Aral Sea and Indus basins. Climate change and development scenarios User provides hydrological flows and water demands, the model simulates flow, storage, and water management (allocation, demands, infrastructure, regulation, etc.) Allows fast multi-scenario simulation for robust decision-making studies 4 Searching for the best available trade-offs Nile and East Africa Power Pool Electrical grid Water resources NBI water organization and the EAPP (East African Power Pool) use Pywr to rethink how to invest in East Africa’s combined water-energy system. Benefits of optimized synergies are in the billions of dollars, in addition to climate adaptation and mitigation gains. 6 Multi-criteria optimization 7 Improved Irrigation efficiency to save water, reduce GHG emissions and cut pollution in Uzbekistan Current Water Risk Level in CA Irrigated land In Central Asia www.cgiar.org Lift irrigated areas in Aral Sea Basin Approximately 70% of the budget for the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR) in Uzbekistan is allocated for electricity consumption by pump stations. Karshi Main Canal Amu-Bukhara Canal Zafarabad Irrigated Area Fergana Valley Amu-Zang www.cgiar.org Karshi Steppe lift irrigation Current irrigation practices are energy-inefficient and create return flow, waterlogging, and salinity problems These pumping consumes 20% of the country’s power, and to keep power affordable for farmers and other users, the government puts US$450 million into energy subsidies every year Government of Tajikistan uses more than 700 million (M) kWh of electricity per year to lift about 1355 Mm3 of water of Syrdarya River for irrigation purposes in northern Tajikistan Cascade pumps www.cgiar.org How can we reduce energy use 11 Case Study: Transition from conventional irrigation methods to cutting-edge irrigation technologies www.cgiar.org www.cgiar.org Total water use, water and energy consumption saving under improved irrigation practices (Karshi) www.cgiar.org Policy recommendations MAIN POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS • Promote the use of GIS and RS/EO based maps by decision makers as an evidence-based tool to identify need areas and to devise targeted interventions; • Quantify the costs and benefits of using water- and energy-efficient technologies to the government, farmers and society as a whole and strengthen the evidence-base to promote their widespread adoption and use; • Educate farmers and relevant stakeholders by sharing project findings and demonstrating the benefits of employing water- and energy-efficient methods and technologies; www.cgiar.org Problem – electricity company wants to sell electricity and 70% is for irrigation. Farmers don’t have to pay for water so no incentive to use less. 15 Managing rice irrigation to reduce GHG emissions, save water and reduce malaria 12% Of GHG emissions globally come from irrigated rice AWD – potential to reduce CH4 emissions and malaria transmission and save water without affecting yields IF weed growth can be controlled. 16 Thank you! More information at: cgiar.org/initiative/nexus-gains Contact: M.McCartney@cgiar.org This work was carried out under the CGIAR Initiative on NEXUS Gains, which is grateful for the support of CGIAR Trust Fund contributors: www.cgiar.org/funders © 2024 International Water Management Institute. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 International Licence (CC BY-NC 4.0). 17 image1.jpeg image5.jpeg image2.jpeg image6.emf 2007-08 food, fuel & fertilizercrisis2011-12 food,fuel&fertilizer crisis2021-22 food, fuel&fertilizercrisis-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%050100150200250300350400450GDP growth in LMICsFood, fuel& fertilizerprice indices (2000=100) image3.jpeg image7.jpeg image8.jpeg image9.jpeg image10.png image11.png image12.png image13.jpeg image14.jpeg image15.jpeg image16.png image17.png image18.jpeg image19.png image20.jpeg image21.jpeg image22.png image23.jpeg image24.png image25.png image26.emf Current Improve d irrigatio n practice s Current Improved irrigation practices Current Improved irrigation practices Current Improved irrigation practices Wheat 10260010115871037602 435 468272 196 219127 92 Cotton 119681765648916776 140 413350 63 194164 30 Total 222281N/A N/A 19531378 575 880621 259 413291 122 Total energy saving, GWh GHG emissions, Kton CO 2 reduction, Kton of GHGs Crop Total pumped area, ha Irrigation application, mm Total water use, MCM Total water saving, MCM Electricity consumption, GWh image27.png image28.png image29.png image30.jpeg image31.emf 0200400600800100020002002200420062008201020122014201620182020Deaths (x1000)Year Malaria Deaths in Africa image32.png image33.png image34.jpeg image4.jpeg image41.jpeg image35.png image36.png image37.png image38.svg image39.jpeg image40.png