CLIMATE RISK PROFILE SERIES ADAPTING GREEN INNOVATION CENTRES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: ANALYSIS OF VALUE CHAIN ADAPTATION POTENTIAL Groundnut, Soya Bean, and Milk Value Chains in Eastern and Southern Provinces, Zambia ©CIAT/NeilPalmer ©CIAT/GeorginaSmith ©CIAT/GeorginaSmith Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia ABOUT THIS REPORT Climate change is affecting agriculture more The report begins with an extensive Highlights than any other sector. Increased frequency literature reviews of the selected value and severity of drought, flood, heat, and chains and their key challenges and » Although Zambia’s agricultural sector is a vital contributor of employment and unseasonable rainfall heavily impact rainfed adaptation strategies. Climate hazards and livelihoods and supports food security, still, problems like malnourishment, stunting, agriculture, ultimately resulting in production crop suitability modelling offer insights into and wasting occur at high rates among Zambia’s children. (Chapter 2, pg.12-13) losses. In that context, The Alliance of Bioversity potential future scenarios under climate change. » This climate risk profile focuses on groundnuts, soya beans, and milk, because International and the International Center for These results inform potential adaptation approaches, which are prioritized by in-country these value chains entail different forms of nutritional, economic, and cultural value. Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) through its climate (Chapter 2, pg.15-19) action lever, are developing climate risk profiles experts and stakeholders through an online for agricultural value chains in developing survey. The top-rated adaptation priorities » In addition, the Zambian agricultural sector faces a variety of challenges, including countries at the national and subnational level. undergo a cost-benefit analysis. Finally, the climate change-related risks, expensive inputs, low uptake of good agricultural These profiles build on past work conducted results are peer-reviewed by the GIC country practices, and a need among farmers for additional training in adaptive skills and by CIAT and the CGIAR Research Program on office and the Alliance scientific staff. technologies. (Chapter 2, pg.19-20) Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security » To support adaptation to climate change, numerous government policies, plans, (CCAFS)in collaboration with the World Bank and and programs have been established, including Zambia’s National Adaptation other partners, including FAO, USAID, DFID1. The Green Innovation Centres for the Programme of Action (NAPA), 2010 National Climate Change Response Strategy, Agriculture and Food Sector (GIC) founded 2016 National Policy on Climate Change (NPCC), and 7th National Development Plan. The present report aims to provide a climate by German Federal Ministry for Economic (Chapter 3, pg.21-22) and vulnerability analysis of the Green Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and Innovation Centres (GIC) target commodity led by the German Agency for International » In addition, numerous international partners support the agricultural sector in a Cooperation (GIZ) in collaboration with local value chains. Herein we identify climate variety of ways, for example, by training farmers in useful skills and technologies. ministries and programmes, aims to promote (Chapter 3, pg.22) change- related vulnerabilities, hazards, and agricultural innovation under the ONEWORLD opportunities for adaptation to the same. No Hunger initiative. Through the GIC, GIZ » Climate modeling predicts that dry spells, extreme heat events, flood risk, and Ultimately, our goal is to foster awareness of aims to generate employment raise farmers’ moisture stress will increase in Eastern and Southern Provinces, along with localized income, and improve farmers’ education and risks and adaptation priorities in the selected skills by funding training in good agricultural risk of erosion. (Chapter 5, pg.27-28) value chains and inform climate investments practices, water management, post-harvest » Currently, both groundnuts and soya beans are highly suitable crops in Eastern and and planning through the recommendations on processing, and entrepreneurship. Southern Provinces; however, slight, localized decreases in suitability are predicted, priority innovations to manage climate risks. especially in Southern. (Chapter 5, pg.31) » The most pressing climate-related hazards are droughts and floods in the groundnut value chain; diminished rainfall and changing temperatures in the soya bean value Planning, data Climate risk Identification Production of chain; and droughts and extreme rainfall in the milk value chain. (Chapter 5, pg.34-35) collection and assessment of adaptation the country stakeholder strategies climate profile » The Green Innovation Centre (GIC) in Zambia has been using different participatory engagement and validation approaches to strengthen farmers’ adaptation to climate change. (Chapter 6, pg.37) » Although the use of minimum tillage and good management practices in the groundnut value chain and the use of an improved variety of soya beans are both - Literature review - Hazard analysis - Detailed review - Peer-review profitable and have a relatively short payback period, these innovations carry (key documents - Crop suitability - Gap analysis and considerable risk. (Chapter 6, pg.45) and datasets ) modelling identification of climate adaptation » Conclusively the adaptation potential for the selected value chains is promising. - Online survey Financial support, however, can ensure that most smallholder Zambian farmers will - CBA analysis have good outcomes from implementing these adaptation strategies. (Chapter 7, pg.49) 1 https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/csa-country-profiles 2 3 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Contents list of figures Figure 1. Map of the selected regions in Zambia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 ABOUT THE REPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 2. Agriculture and livelihoods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 HIGHLIGHTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 3. Historical annual mean precipitation and temperature in the Eastern ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 and Southern Province. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 4. Historical (left), and future projected (center) and projected change (right) for the maximum number of consecutive dry days within the year (all year) (average of last 30 years) for Eastern and Southern Provinces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2. AGRICULTURAL CONTEXT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2.1. Economic relevance of farming 10 Figure 5. Historical (right), and future projected (center), and projected change 2.2. People and livelihoods 11 (right) for the total number of days with maximum temperature greater or equal to 35°C in the year (average of last 30 years) for Eastern and Southern Provinces . . . . 25 2.3. Agricultural activities 11 2.4. Agriculture value chain commodities 14 Figure 6. Historical (right), and future projected (center), and projected change 2.4.1. Rice 14 (right) for the Maximum 5-day running average precipitation (average of last 30 2.4.2. Potatoes 15 years) for Eastern and Southern Provinces. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.4.3. Mangoes 16 2.5. Agricultural sector challenges 17 Figure 7. Historical (right), and future projected (center), and projected change (right) for the number of days with moisture stress (average of last 30 years) for 3. POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS ON CLIMATE CHANGEE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Eastern and Southern Provinces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Figure 8. Historical and future (scenario RCP 8.5, periods 2030 and 2050) 4. GOVERNANCE, INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES AND CAPACITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 suitability changes of groundnuts production in Eastern and Southern Provinces . . . . 26 5. CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Figure 9. Historical and future (scenario RCP 8.5, periods 2030 and 2050) suitability changes of soybean production in Eastern and Southern Provinces. . . . . . . 27 5.1. Farmers’ perceptions on climate change 22 5.2. Climate change and variability: historic and future trends 23 Figure 10. Yield for BAU versus prioritized innovations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 5.3. Crop suitability analysis 26 5.4. Climate vulnerabilities across agriculture value chain commodities 27 5.4.1. Rice 27 5.4.2. Potatoes 27 list of tables 5.4.3. Mangoes 28 Table 1. Specific practices within each practice group relevant to the focus value 6. ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 chains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 6.1. On-farm adaptation strategies 30 Table 2. Adapting to climate change: strategies across major value chain 6.2. Overall ranking of the adaptation strategies 30 commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 6.3. Cost benefit analysis of the prioritized adaptation strategies 35 Table 3. Installation costs for BAU and the two prioritized innovations in the 7. SYNTHESIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Zambian groundnut and soya bean value chains. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 8. WORKS CITED . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Table 4. Profitability associated with prioritized innovations for Zambian soya bean and groundnut value chains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Table 5. Practice-group specific potential strategies and considerations for advancing CSA at scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 4 5 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Acronyms and Abbreviations AEDD Environment and Sustainable Development Agency CDD Consecutive Dry Days CEDEAO Economic Community of West African States CIV Centre d’Innovation Verte CNCC National Climate Change Committee DNA Direction Nationale de l’Agriculture (National Directorate of Agriculture) DNGR Direction Nationale du Génie Rural DNM National Directorate for Meteorology GAPs Good Agriculture Practices GDP Gross domestic product GIZ The German Agency for International Cooperation IER Institute of Rural Economy IICM Integrated Initiatives for Mali’s Economic Growth IFM Mango Interprofession IRR Internal rate of return LOA Agricultural Orientation Law MEADD Ministry of the Environment, Sanitation, and Sustainable Development MSP Multi-Stakeholder Platform NGO Non-governmental organizations NPV Net present value ORM Office Riz Mopti PANC National Climate Action Plan PASSIP Support Program for the Local Irrigation Sub-Sector PCDA Competitiveness and Agricultural Diversification Program PDA Agricultural Development Policy PNCC National Climate Change Policy PNISA National Agricultural Investment Program RCP Representation Concentration Pathway SNCC National Climate Change Strategy SOCAFON Societe cooperative artisanale des forgerons de l’office du Niger SRI System Rice Intensification SRP Sustainable Rice Platform PPU Deep placement of super-granulated urea USAID United States Agency for International Development 6 7 ©Bioversity International/E.Hermanowicz Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia 1. Introduction Zambia is a sub-tropical country located in Figure 1. Map of the selected regions in Zambia southern Africa. It has the third largest water resource in Africa, Zambezi River, yet food Zambia is a landlocked country in southern Africa. The regions production is predominantly rain-fed. This fact under study, its Eastern and makes agriculture a climate change-sensitive and Southern Provinces, are located in the east and risky venture for many small-scale farmers who south of the country. produce the bulk of Zambia’s food. As is clear in its national agriculture policy and in Zambia’s overarching Vision 2030 long-term plan, the government of Zambia recognizes the central role that agriculture plays in its economy and has established various mechanisms to address challenges in the sector. Priority areas include increasing productivity and farm incomes, strengthening farmers’ adaptive capacities, improving food and nutritional security, mechanizing agriculture, creating job opportunities, EASTERN and building resilient farming systems. PROVINCE In support of this vision, the German Federal SOUTHERN Ministry for Economic Cooperation and PROVINCE Development (BMZ) commissioned Green Innovation Centres (GIC) for the agriculture and food sector as part of the “ONE WORLD – No Hunger” initiative in 15 countries, among This profile has six sections, each reflecting an them Zambia. essential analytical step in understanding current Its main objectives include boosting and potential adaptation options in the selected 70,000 smallholder farmers’ incomes by 25%, value-chain commodities. The first describes the generating employment, and raising literacy levels through further education for women and youths. importance of agriculture to people’s livelihoods in the four departments. Section two highlights the policies, Supported by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), strategies, and programs implemented in the three and implemented by Community Markets for value chains that address climate change, while the Conservation (COMACO), this initiative focuses on third section discusses the governance and institutional the groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in two provinces, namely Eastern and Southern Zambia resources and capacity. The fourth section discusses the main climatic hazards affecting the three value chains (Figure 1). This short but informative document and presents climate modeling results for projected therefore aims to teach stakeholders about these climatic change-related hazards and crop suitability value chains, and educate policymakers and the maps. Additionally, it offers an analysis of vulnerabilities private sector about the threats and opportunities and risks posed by these hazards to the respective of climate change in Zambia’s groundnut, milk, value chains. The ongoing on-farm adaptation strategies and soybean value chains. It also seeks to promote the incorporation of context-specific adaptation adopted by farmers to cope with these hazards as well as the cost benefit analysis results are discussed in the strategies and to present investment opportunities fifth section. The sixth section provides a synthesis and for climate-smart agriculture (CSA). recommendations. 8 9 ©CIAT/NeilPalmer Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia In 2010, the population of Zambia according are overweight, which means they are heavy for 2. Agricultural Context to the census was 13,046,508, of whom their height (ZDHS, 2020). 6,394,455 were males (49% of the population), while 6,652,053 were females (51%). 61% Overall, 34% of households have electricity; Key messages of the population lived in rural areas. The however, only 18% in urban areas and a population of Zambia was projected to rise at mere 2% in rural areas use it for cooking. » The agricultural sector is vital to employment, livelihoods, and food security in an average rate of 3% per year over the period Firewood, used by 79% of households, is the Zambia. 2011-2020, and is expected to hit 18 million in most important cooking fuel in rural areas; while 2020 and 30 million in 2035 (Central Statistical charcoal, used by 75% of households, is more » Nonetheless, Zambia still faces high levels of undernourishment, stunting, and Office, 2013). The population of Zambia is young; common in urban areas (ZDHS, 2020). wasting among its children. 48% is 0-14 years of age, 49% is 15-64 years of » Groundnuts are a crucial food crop, widely grown, nutritious, and economically age, and only 3% is 65 or more years old (ZDHS, Regarding educational attainment, among important; they are often cultivated on small farms with significant involvement by 2020). Eastern Province had a population of the 15-49 year-old age group, literacy levels women. 1,592,661, and Southern Province of 1,589,926; are higher for men at 82% than for women at each province accounts for roughly 12% of the 66%. With fewer than 10% pursuing education » Soya beans, meanwhile, are rich in protein and oil, and at many stages of total Zambian population (Infographic 1). In both beyond secondary school, higher education is production, women comprise the majority of workers. provinces, the female population was higher rare (Infographic 1). » Milk production, meanwhile, has both economic and cultural importance; many than the male population; Eastern Province farmers own livestock for a variety of reasons, but not all of them produce milk. contained 784,680 males and 807,981 females, Regarding information and communications and Southern Province had 779,659 males and technology services, 74% households own a » The Zambian agricultural sector faces several challenges, including climate change 810,267 females. A large percentage (>75%) of mobile phone, 47% possess a radio, and 37% and variability, expensive inputs, low uptake of good agricultural practices, a lack of the population was rural. The total labor force have a television. Internet usage is 7%. The transparency among businesses, and poor governance. constituted more than half of the provinces’ most common means of transport is bicycles, population, but the rates were exceptionally high which are used by 38% of households, while just in Eastern Province at 70% (Figure 2). 7% of households use cars and trucks. 53% of households own agricultural land (ZDHS, 2020). Access to basic necessities and resources like Zambia has ten administrative regions, domestic product (GDP). (World Bank, 2020; drinking water is relatively high. A majority of namely the Northern, North-Western, ZamStats, 2019). Zambia exported agricultural the households in Eastern (79%) and Southern 2.3. Agricultural activities Eastern, Western, Southern, Central, products worth US$ 0.8 billion in 2014 (USDA, (66%) Provinces have access to an improved Copperbelt, Lusaka, Luapula, and Muchinga 2015), but the value of exports decreased to Zambia has three agro ecological zones (AEZs) water source (Infographic 1). The most common Provinces. Eastern Province, which has eleven around US$ 403 million in 2019 due to price identified by their rainfall, temperature water sources include piped water, standpipes, districts, is an estimated 51,476 km2 in size, and volatilities and trade restrictions among other and soil characteristics. These AEZs condition tube wells, boreholes, protected dug wells, and borders Malawi to the east and Mozambique factors (Mulenga, Kabisa, & Chapoto, 2019). agricultural activities such as the cultivation of springs. Access to piped water is predominant in to the south. Its capital is Chipata. Southern Major export crops include sugar, which crops and keeping of livestock. Region I, which is urban dwellings, compared to rural areas where Province is significantly larger and has thirteen represents 26% of the total value of agricultural 17.3 million hectares (ha) in size, encompasses households obtain their water mainly from tube districts, occupying an estimated land area exports, followed by tobacco (17%), corn (8%) the arid zone of Southern and Eastern Provinces wells and boreholes (ZDHS, 2020). of 85,283 km2, and its capital is Choma. The and cotton (8%). Production and sales in the and the semi-arid zone of Western and Southern Zambezi River borders Southern Province. horticultural sector have experienced steady Provinces (Ndiyoi & Phiri, 2010). This region In terms of food security and nutrition, due growth. Exporting roses, for example, accounted receives 800 mm annual rainfall and typically to low household incomes and educational for US$ 26 million in 2013 alone (USDA, has short cropping seasons (80-120 days), so it is 2.1. Economic relevance of farming levels, undernourishment, stunting, and 2015). The estimated annual consumption of favorable for cultivating millet and sorghum and wasting levels are still high among children Zambia’s economy is hugely dependent on horticultural products is 1 million tonnes, worth for keeping livestock. Western, Eastern, Central mining. However, agriculture is a key sector (ZDHS, 2020). In both provinces, about 45% more than US$ 330 million, and this value is Provinces, and some portions of Northern that employs 67% of the working population, of children under the age of five are stunted, expected to rise to US$ 500 million by 2020 Province, are covered by Region II, which is supports 85% of Zambian livelihoods, and which means that they are short for their age; (Mulenga, Kabisa, & Chapoto, 2019). 27.4 million ha in size (Ndiyoi & Phiri, 2010). contributes to national food security. and 5% are wasted, that is, thin for their height. In This region is split further into two sub-regions. 2019, the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries Nationally, 12% of children are underweight, 2.2. People and livelihoods Located in the fertile plateau, Region II-a meaning that they are thin for their age; and 5% sector contributed 3% to the total national gross features many crops grown under irrigation. 10 11 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Figure 2. Agriculture and livelihoods DEMOGRAPHICS FOOD SECURITY Eastern Southern Eastern Southern ZAMBIA’s population Population suffering % children from food 55.9% 38.1% stunting 45.6% 43.7% 17,885,422 poverty % of household % children income spent 53.2% 44.3% wasted 4.2% 6.7% on food 12% FARMING Eastern Southern Eastern Eastern Arable 3,060,000KM2 3,349,817KM2 % of people 62.4% land employed in Southern 2,065,590 as a % of total land 59 agriculture12 % 50%% area in the province 40.9%inhabitants Southern land use Total number of ha under: KEY: Eastern southern 2,135,794 inhabitants Irish Burley Bambara Sweet 50.36% 49.64% Maize Rice Sunflower Soya beans potato tobacco nuts potatoes Wheat 283,524 1,178 57,335 55,229 73 7,073 107 1,785 N/a 87.3% 73.1% 336,824 N/A 29,558 10,992 239 567 1,095 15,450 2,102 of which 50.39 49.61 of which% % are rural are rural Ground Seed Virginia Mixed Sorghum Millet nuts cotton tobacco beans Cowpeas Cassava ACCESS TO BASIC NEEDS 129 127 98,708 58,109 1,526 3,194 292 15 Eastern Southern 16,600 3,507 37,574 22,552 2,271 2,863 8,771 17 % of the population suffering from absolute poverty % of households with access to electricity 8% 25% Total number of livestock breeds Eastern 70% for lighting Southern 58% 601,921 1,315,238 % of total households Eastern Southern with access to electricity 359,247 1,290,856 for cooking 2.3% 15.6% Youth Eastern 75.2% literacy rate (15-30 years) Southern 91.3 30,524 62,586% % of households with access to potable water 76.0% 75.1% ND: Not Disclosed 306,527 181,783 12 13 Eastern S outhern Eastern Southern Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Sandy soil is predominant in Region II-b; both 2.4. Agricultural value chain Acquisition of seeds, labour, and farm groundnuts. Hand shelling is most common, livestock production and the farming of crops commodities inputs for pest and disease management even though mechanical and motorized shellers such as cashew nuts, rice, and cassava are are important activities before groundnut make this operation easier. A task mostly common. The growing season ranges from 100- 2.4.1. Groundnuts planting. Extension services and advice are done by women and children. Groundnuts are Groundnuts, also known as peanuts (Arachis 140 days in Region II-b. Region III occupies 46% especially crucial for easier access to information preserved in their shells because they reduce hypogaea), are legume crops widely grown in of the national area and covers the Northern, about the planting calendar and choice of seed their susceptibility to insect, pest, or mold Zambia for their nutritional and economical Luapula, and Copperbelt Provinces (Ndiyoi & varieties. Seed companies are active distributors infections. Most of the groundnuts produced are value. Consumed raw or processed, groundnuts Phiri, 2010). This region receives more than of certified and quality groundnut seeds. Major consumed at home. 1000 mm annual rainfall, enjoys long growing are a major source of protein in Zambian diets seed companies include Zamseed, Pannar, and (Desmae & Sones, 2017). In Zambia, groundnut seasons of up to 150 days, and is characterized Seed Co. However, there are also small- and The surplus is sold at local markets, where it by moderately fertile soils, with strongly acidic farming is small-scale, with a high degree of medium- scale agro-dealers like Shifa and Mania is assembled and traded in different centres participation by women across the entire value soils in some areas. The presence of acidic soils who are located in Chipata, Keson in Katete that in Zambia or neighboring countries. Traders limits the growth of some cereals and legumes. chain. Hence, groundnuts are referred to as support seed distribution (Mukuka & Shipekesa, buy from farmers at low prices and can resell at However, the long growing seasons make the female crops because of the important role 2013). Lusaka’s Soweto market at an average price that region ideal for growing perennials such as women play in planting and harvesting, as well is triple farm-gate prices, or at the Kasumbalesa sugarcane, coffee, and rice. as in post-harvest management and processing. Groundnuts require deep, fertile, well- border at higher prices than Lusaka’s Soweto Men are primarily involved in input supply and drained soils for good yields; therefore, market. In some situations, there is barter In 2014-2015, there were 1,473,547 marketing of inputs. site selection and land preparation are trade of groundnuts for other merchandise like agricultural households. Men, compared to important. In most households, planting is done clothing or household items. just 22% women; head a majority (78%) of these In Zambia, several groundnut varieties are using hand hoes, making it a labour-intensive households and majority of both heads were in grown. These differ based on their growth activity. Planting is undertaken by both men and 2.4.2. Soya beans the 35-39 age group Central Statistical Office, habits, days to maturity, seed sizes, resistance women on their own plots or jointly if the plots Soya beans or soybeans (Glycine max) are a or tolerance to disease, potential yields, and 2016) In 2019, about 1,424,387 households are managed together. This activity can take up legume commonly grown for their nutrient- were involved in crop production, while 671,445 oil content (Mukuka & Shipekesa, 2013). They two to three days, especially for adult women in dense qualities; they contain 42% crude include the Msekera variety (MGV-4) whose raised poultry, 949,541 kept poultry, and a plot of 0.25 ha (Mukuka & Shipekesa, 2013). protein and 20% oil. Soya products include 16,953 farmed fish. The horticulture sector also kernels are red, uniform, and medium in size, soya chunks and meals, while cakes used as and contain up to 50% oil; and the Chishango involved over 300,000 smallholder-farming Field management practices like weeding animal feed are by-products. In Zambia, both variety, whose kernels are tan to pink in color, households. Farmers are broadly grouped and fertilizer application, pest and disease small- and large-scale farmers grow soya beans uniform, medium-sized, and contain 47% oil into three categories. Large-scale farmers management, and harvesting are key on- as an industrial crop in rotation with maize; they who cultivate more than 20 ha are dependent content. Other varieties include Makulu Red, farm activities for increased groundnut do well in AEZ regions I and II (Lubungu, Burke, on mechanization, utilize new and improved Champion, Chalimbana, MGV-2, MGV-5, Chipego, productivity. In the first 45 days after planting & Sitko, 2013). Safari, Samba, Semeki, Soricco, Comet, and Katete. technologies, and produce for markets. Medium- groundnuts, the plots must be weeded, which and Spike are among the major soya bean scale farmers cultivate between 5 and 20 ha and is a labour-intensive process. Some farmers varieties in Zambia. Generally, more women Groundnuts are the second most important keep some of their household produce. Small- prefer to use animal draught power to save farmers are involved in soya bean farming than scale farmers cultivate less than 5 ha, grow food food crop after maize in terms of production time. However only 5% of farmers use this men. Men, however, dominate land planning for subsistence purposes, and depend on low- and account for 9% of the overall cultivated practice (Mukuka & Shipekesa, 2013). Harvesting (66.7%), market transport (65.0%) and weeding land in Zambia (Mukuka & Shipekesa, 2013). cost farming technologies (Ndiyoi & Phiri, 2010). is dependent on the maturity of the pods and (56.7%), while women dominate planting In 2019, groundnuts were cultivated by 46% of kernels, which varies across varieties. Harvesting (74.2%), shelling (66.7%), bagging (71.7%), and The rate of fertilizer usage among all agricultural households. With 130,825 metric is manual or mechanical. Many farmers manually marketing (82.0%) (Mafimisebi et al, 2015). In smallholder farmers is currently 58%. tonnes produced during the same season, Across harvest groundnuts, a process that involves the 2018/2019 season, the area covered by the total area under groundnut production the provinces, Copperbelt recorded the highest pulling the plants from the ground by hand or soya beans significantly increased to 236,601 rate of fertilizer usage at 77%, and Western was 276,383 ha (Mulenga, Kabisa, & Chapoto, loosening the soil first with a hand hoe, then ha from 75,621 ha in the 2014-2015 agricultural Province recorded the lowest rate at 12%. The 2019). Eastern Province is the largest groundnut drying them overnight, curing the pods, and then season. Production of soya beans was estimated average use of fertilizer per ha in Zambia was producer and accounts for a third of the picking the pods off the plant. at 281,389 metric tonnes with average soybean total groundnut production area, followed by 117 kilograms (kg/ha) (Mulenga, Kabisa, & yields of 1.10 mt/ha. Men and women are both Northern (19%) and Southern (14%). Chapoto, 2019). At the post-harvest stage, the sorting of engaged in the production of soya beans. immature and discolored pods precedes threshing, shelling, and storing the At the input level, sourcing the appropriate 14 15 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia seeds is key. Although improved soya bean farmers and processors (Lubungu, Burke, & washing the hands before milking, washing of inoculum for soya beans, early planting, varieties exist, farmers often use local, recycled Sitko, 2013). each cow’s udder, and using clean collection integrated pest and disease management for soya bean varieties. They do this because these containers. groundnut, and proper animal husbandry for soya beans are self-pollinating and inexpensive, 2.4.3. Milk dairy farming. Many farmers still do not have and can be recycled for a long time without In Zambia, dairy farming is an important Milk is either sold raw through informal access to education and training programmes losing vigor (Lubungu, Burke, & Sitko, 2013). economic and cultural industry. Many channels, such as by milk hawking, or to increase their knowledge and upgrade Other essential inputs include productivity- households keep cattle for economic status, through formal market channels at their skills. Sub-optimal infrastructure, such as enhancing rhizobium inoculant, pesticides for draught use, and for subsistence purposes. established milk collection centres. Important poor rural road networks, inadequate storage and herbicides for pest control and disease Approximately 300,000 households own dairy milk processors in Zambia include Varun milk, or warehouses, and a lack of information management (ZARI, 2013). Important input cattle; however, only 4000 smallholder farmers Finta, Parmalat (recently sold to Lactalis) and services, further constrains the development of suppliers include large-scale seed companies, produce milk for formal markets (Mumba, ZAMMILK. They buy milk from farmers and these value chains, hinders the uptake of new small and medium-sized agro-dealers, Pandey, & Jagt, 2013). pay them on a monthly basis. At the product adaptive strategies, and limits access to markets businesses, and often farmers who grow their marketing stage, important activities include (Lubungu, Burke, & Sitko, 2013; Siamabele, own seed from their harvests. For successful dairy farming in Zambia, linking farmers to markets through cooperatives, 2019). essential inputs include sourcing of water, and pricing, promoting, and selling milk and Land preparation, planting, harvesting, acquisition of good-quality breeds, feed, and its products. Major market actors include Poor governance and limited business- and crop management practices such as veterinary and other extension services. supermarkets, groceries, hotels, and small-scale related transparency in the selected value first and second weeding are important Milk production requires that each dairy cow vendors who sell the raw milk and other milk chains together mean missed opportunities activities during on-farm production. Soya has access to at least 30 litres of water per products to consumers (Mumba, Pandey, & Jagt, for higher incomes and other improvements. beans require well-drained soils and reliable day and to enough feed. The value of feed is 2013). For instance, in the milk value chain, prices are rainfall. Insecticides like Karate brands are determined mainly by its energy and protein dictated by processors; therefore, the possibility used to control insects that eat leaves, while content. Common animal feeds used for dairy for farmers to influence pricing based on their powdery mildew is managed by fungicides (Seed farming include grasses like rhodes grass, maize, 2.5. Agricultural sector challenges production costs is quite limited (Kawambwa et Co, 2019). When the pods are dry and brown legumes like desmodium, concentrates like Climate change and variability in Zambia al, 2014). in color, harvesting starts. Popular harvesting maize bran, hay, and silage (Pandey & Voskuil, have become a major developmental methods include pulling and cutting by hand. In 2011). Extension services are usually offered by challenge for the agriculture sector. In the larger plots, the use of a mower and combined the government, with additional support from 2018-2019 agricultural season for example, harvesting are preferred. After threshing, the private sector in providing information and there were serious rainfall deficits, especially in harvested plants are dried to reduce the knowledge for proper dairy management. the western and southern parts of Zambia, that aflatoxin risk. led to food insecurity, and in particular reduced During on-farm production, feeding, pest and cereal production (Mulenga, Kabisa, & Chapoto, Once threshed, soya bean seeds are sorted, disease control, and milking are important 2019). cleaned, and packed in clean bags for storage activities. Farmers require feed rations that in a cool place. Less commonly, farmers sell are well balanced in energy, protein, and Small-scale farmers who constitute the soya beans directly to suppliers, assemblers, minerals. Otherwise, they risk nutritional the majority of the food producers are and processors for further value addition. diseases like urea poisoning2, acidosis3 or constrained by the high cost of improved Important service providers at the post-harvest ketosis4 (Pandey & Voskuil, 2011). Proper seeds and other inputs. Moreover, high poverty and processing stage include large wholesalers animal husbandry practices during this stage rates and poor access to financial services and processors like COMACO and Lusaka-based are also vital to ensure healthy animals and have compounded the challenges the sector animal feed and oil processors. Small- and high milk production. Milking, meanwhile, faces. Many farmers lack the purchasing power medium-scale assemblers and traders are also needs to be handled hygienically to reduce to afford better technologies, which further important players and act as links between milk contamination. Hygenic practices include reduces their ability to respond to or recover from recurrent climate-related hazards such as droughts and floods. 2 Urea is used in feed supplements as a source of non-protein nitrogen (NPN). When, however more urea is ingested than can be metabo- lized by rumen species, ammonia is absorbed from the rumen into the blood. Too much blood ammonia can lead to poisoning. 3 When the animals eat too little fibrous feed (fodder) and too much feed rich in soluble carbohydrates like grain, maize and maize-bran, Besides adverse climate-change impacts, or brewers’ grain, the acidity in the rumen becomes too high and the pH drops below normal (5.6). poor yields are associated with low uptake 4 Ketosis is a metabolic disease of lactating cows that occurs within a few days after calving. It might occur if an animal has received a ration that was too rich in energy when she was dry. of good agricultural practices like the use 16 17 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Policy; and the 2008 National Energy Policy. and Credit Cooperative Organizations (SACCOs) 3. Policies, Strategies and to enhance their access to financial services. Policies supporting the expansion of the Strengthening dairy cooperatives has also been Programs on Climate Change selected value chains include the 7th National essential to training farmers. Development Plan to create a diversified Key messages and export-oriented agricultural sector by The Africa Development Bank (AfDB) works accounting for climate change effects. The in Zambia through the Global Agriculture plan seeks to encourage diversification within and Food Security Program Agricultural » Mali has developed a strong framework of environmental law and policy, including the agriculture sector, boost investment in Productivity and Market Enhancement the National Climate Change Policy (PNCC), the National Climate Change Strategy agricultural infrastructure, broaden access to Project and Livestock Infrastructure Support (SNCC), the National Climate Action Plan (PANC), the Agricultural Orientation Law finance for production and exports, and improve Project. Specifically, it encourages the use of (LOA), the Agricultural Development Policy (PDA), and the National Agricultural production and productivity. The goals of the improved drought-resistant soya and groundnut Investment Program (PNISA). Dairy Industry Development Act (2010) include seeds; dry-season land preparation using » In keeping with these policies, numerous programs have been developed, including establishing a Dairy Industry Development minimum tillage; the utilization of fixed planting some that are relevant for the rice, potato, and mango value chains, such as the Board, augmenting milk production in order to stations in the form of small, shallow basins; the Support Program for the Local Irrigation Sub-Sector (PASSIP), the Competitiveness fully utilize the capacity of processing facilities, retention of crop residue; the use of mulch or and Agricultural Diversification Program (PCDA), and the Integrated Initiatives for ensuring collaboration and participation of ground covers; and rotation of crops in the field. Mali’s Economic Growth (IICM) project. all stakeholders within the dairy industry, and The AfDB is also working with seed producers promoting self-regulation of the dairy industry to promote new seed varieties along the two » These programs could strengthen their responsiveness to local context and through the development and use of codes of value chains, and is building the capacity of agro- cross-sectoral linkages, as well as supporting additional ministries to engage in practice. dealers and input suppliers and linking them implementation. with producers. Along the livestock value chain, Relevant programmes the bank is constructing livestock service centres, Under the Zambia Strengthening Climate milk collection centres, livestock marketing Resilience Project (PPCR PHASE II) and Zambia centres, livestock slaughter facilities, rural access Zambia acknowledges, as a party to the reduction, mitigation, and low carbon Integrated Forest Landscape Project funded roads, district veterinary laboratories, quarantine United Nations Framework Convention on development mitigation actions. The 2016 by Global Environment Facility (GEF), the stations, and veterinary checkpoints. Climate Change (UNFCCC), the importance National Policy on Climate Change (NPCC), World Bank provides farmers with climate of addressing the adverse effects of climate meanwhile, aims to foster a prosperous and risk-related information and supports change. Zambia plans to develop policies and climate-resilient economy by 2030. This policy conservation agriculture, integrated soil mechanisms under this convention to guide guides relevant ministries and institutions fertility management, and agroforestry. It is adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. to implement climate change programmes also training farmers in CSA practices such as The development of a National Adaptation and sets out clear entry points to achieve a precision farming, minimum tillage, improved Programme of Action (NAPA) to define priority climate resilient economy. Several measures fertilization, and new drought-tolerant varieties measures needed to respond to climate change include the promotion and implementation of of soya beans. was one such framework. The proposed sustainable land-use management practices; adaptation initiatives for the agricultural sector mainstreaming of climate change into policies, Under the Increasing Climate Resilience under the NAPA included strengthening Early plans, and strategies; and communication and in Energy & Agriculture Systems and Warning Systems (EWS) to support timely dissemination of climate change information Entrepreneurship (INCREASE) Program and dissemination of meteorological knowledge, to increase awareness and understanding Market-led Dairy Innovations Project, the promoting irrigation and the efficient use of of its impacts. Other policies and sectoral Netherlands Development Organization water resources, and diversifying crops and strategies that contribute to resource (SNV) has been working with dairy farmers livestock with a view to improving nutrition and conservation and climate change adaptation on promoting CSA practices and installing food security. and mitigation include Nationally Appropriate biodigesters. It is also training farmers Mitigation Actions; the National Strategy for in good dairy management, in the use of The 2010 National Climate Change Reducing Emissions, Deforestation, and Forest breeding services such as providers of artificial Response Strategy was developed to Degradation (REDD+); the 2007 National Policy insemination, and in commercial fodder enhance adaptation and disaster risk on Environment; the 2014 National Agriculture production. The SNV is linking farmers to Savings 18 19 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Plan (NEAP) and Disaster Management Policy development in Zambia; the Department 4. Governance, institutional for 2005. The GEF has also funded NAPA policy for International Development (DFID), which and the development of projects. The World supports social protection programmes; and resources and capacity Bank, the United States Agency for International the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Development (USAID), and the German Agency which encourages conservation farming and Key messages for International Cooperation (GIZ) are currently CSA. The key players in the dissemination of rolling out numerous projects to transform climate change information, advocacy, research, » In Zambia,government ministries, departments, and agencies, international agriculture, the climate policy agenda, and and technical support are members of the development partners, and private-sector actors all are working on developing climate change adaptation and mitigation. Zambia Climate Change Network, climate change action strategies to respond to climate change. Other major development partners include interest groups, public and private universities, the International Union for Conservation of and local authorities (Funder, Mweemba, & » Key institutional players include the Ministry of Finance, the Disaster Management Nature, which fosters climate change and Nyambe, 2013). and Mitigation Unit (DMMU), the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), the Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock, the Zambia Agricultural Research Institute, the Zambia Meteorological Department, and the Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and Environmental Protection. » The agricultural sector in Zambia also enjoys support from numerous international partners. » Meanwhile, the Zambia Climate Change Network, climate change interest groups, public and private universities, and local authorities disseminate information and technical support. Institutions are critical building blocks for MoA, spearheading public research on seed agricultural and climate change interventions in varieties. The Ministry of Communications and the short or long term. Several organizations Transport is home to the Zambia Meteorological in Zambia incorporate climate change issues Department (ZMD), which is in charge of national into policies and development strategies for environmental information and services such concerted action. These organizations include as EWS. The ZMD works closely with the DMMU government ministries, departments, and office (Funder, Mweemba, & Nyambe, 2013). agencies, international development partners, The Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and private-sector actors (Rooij, 2014). and Environmental Protection formulates environmental policies, is mandated focal point The Ministry of Finance is one important for climate change, and compiles Zambia’s institution involved in climate investment communications to the UNFCCC (Rooij, 2014). management. In addition, the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) of Since the 1900s, Zambia has also the Vice President’s Office is responsible for benefited enormously from investment coordinating resources for disaster response in the agricultural sector by international and recovery (Rooij, 2014). Projects related to organizations. The World Bank, the United agriculture and climate change are coordinated Nations Development Programme, and the and implemented by MoA and have a Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation significant national budget allocated to them. have, for example, supported the Ministry of The Zambia Agricultural Research Institute Environment in setting up its ministry and in (ZARI) is the national research institute under developing the National Environmental Action 20 21 ©CIAT/NeilPalmer Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Province. With regard to temperatures, some long rainy season, Eastern province historically 5. Climate Change-Related farmers in Southern Province indicated there has experienced less than 24 consecutive dry days been no change while farmers in the Northern (CDDs) characterized by precipitation < 1 mm/ Risks and Vulnerabilities Province cited temperatures were rising. Some day. Southern province, on the other hand, reports were based on daytime temperatures, experienced up to 30 CDD. In the future, CDD Key messages others on nighttime temperatures. Other in both provinces will increase by 5 to 9 climatic changes observed by Zambian farmers days, suggesting that dry spells will become » Zambian farmers agree that climate change exists and that the weather is included decreasing water levels in rivers and more common. Future climate projections increasingly difficult to predict. streams, an increased incidence of animal pests also indicate that Southern will experience and human diseases, and a decline in crop approximately 38 CDD in the 2050s. Between the » Climate modeling indicates that dry spells, extreme heat events, flood risk, and yields. 2020s and 2040s, longer stretches of CDD will moisture stress will increase in Eastern and Southern Provinces, along with localized lead to a high risk of droughts during the long risk of erosion. rainy season (Figure 4). » Currently, both groundnuts and soya beans are highly suitable crops in Eastern and 5.2. Climate change and variability: Southern Provinces; however, slight, localized decreases in suitability are predicted, historic and future trends The NT35, defined as the total number of days in especially in Southern. In our climate data analysis, for historical a season with maximum temperatures greater precipitation and temperature trends, we than or equal to 35°C, serves as an indicator » The most pressing climate-related hazards in the groundnuts value chain are used the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed of heat stress. In the long rainy season, the droughts and floods; soya bean crops, meanwhile, may be impacted by diminished Precipitation with Station and Climate NT35 has historically remained low with an rainfall and changing temperatures; and droughts and extreme rainfall may be Hazards Group Infrared Temperature with annual mean of 18 days above 35°C. However, harmful to milk production. Stations. For future climate projections, we future climate projections indicate that the used an ensemble of downscaled Coupled NT35 will increase drastically in Eastern and Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Southern provinces, suggesting that extreme (Navarro-Racines et al 2020). Specifically, we heat events in the long rainy season could 5.1. Farmers’ perceptions on seasons. Some farmers were more concerned utilized the MOHC_HADGEM2_ES, CESM1_CAM5, last up to four weeks in some areas (Figure 5). climate change with the onset and cessation than with the GFDL_CM3, MPI_ESM_LR, and MIROC_MIROC5 Specifically, the current climate projection under amount of rainfall, while others reported on models. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Based on their experience of changes in 8.5 indicates that the number of days with heat precipitation length and variability (Mulenga & weather and climate, farmers have formed The climate analysis for Eastern and stress in Eastern will increase by 27 days. Hot Wineman, 2014). local narratives about climate change trends Southern Provinces shows that historical areas in both provinces will become hotter as we and impacts. These ideas have influenced (1981-2015) monthly temperatures varied move into the 2020s through the 2040s. Farmers also noted that climate change impacts their decision making about which strategies to could be negative to positive. Negative effects between 10-32°C. The long rainy season, from adopt in order to manage the impacts of these January through April, was wetter than the The maximum 5-day running average included food insecurity while positive included perceived changes. growing of new crops like tobacco in Eastern second season from late November through precipitation (P5D) serves as an indicator of Zambia. The adoption of adaptation strategies December. Dry spells with less than 100 mm flood risk. In the long rainy season, the P5D has There was consensus among different historically remained low, below 20 mm, with such as conservation farming, diversification, rainfall occurred in April and October. January farmers – both men and women – that adoption of climate-resilient livestock breeds featured the heaviest rainfall, up to 200 mm some scattered larger values. Future climate climate is indeed changing and the weather and crop varieties are connected to perceptions per month. Most of the land area in both projections indicate that the P5D will increase has become increasingly unpredictable significantly, by 5 mm, across Zambia. Eastern associated with increases in flooding and provinces experienced a historical annual mean (Mulenga & Wineman, 2014). Farmers cited temperature above 20°C. The annual mean Province will experience more extreme rainfall droughts. causes of climate change as supernatural precipitation in the provinces was between compared to Southern (Figure 6). The overall forces e.g. not respecting the ancestral spirits Comparison of perceived changes in climate 600 and 1100 mm. Southern province was increase in the P5D suggests increased and environmental causes like deforestation. flood risk in both provinces. The hydrological and observed meteorological data showed that significantly drier and cooler than Eastern Some farmers attributed these changes to reported experiences of depressed rainfall were province (Figure 3). consequences of higher precipitation across 5 natural processes and a few did not know of any days are severer than in the case of precipitation inconsistent with a recorded increase over the causes of climate change. Across Zambia, many on a single day, so flooding events are likely to period from November 2011 to March 2012, for CDD defined as Consecutive Dry Days serves farmer groups stated that rainfall variability be more frequent in the future.example in Chipata, which is situated in Eastern as an effective measure for extremely low had affected the start and length of the growing precipitation and seasonal droughts. In the 22 23 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia The 95th percentile of daily precipitation (P95) increasing precipitation in Eastern Province. Figure 5. Historical (right), and future projected (center), and projected change (right) for the total for a season serves as an indicator of heavy number of days with maximum temperature greater or equal to 35°C in the year (average of last 30 rainfall and is linked with the risk of erosion. In Moisture stress, which serves as an indicator years) for Eastern and Southern Provinces. the long rainy season, the P95 has historically of the available soil moisture for plants, is remained high in Eastern Province. Future measured as the number of days with a ratio climate projections indicate that the P95 will of actual to potential evapotranspiration below mainly concentrate in the southern areas of 0.5 (NDWS). Higher NDWS values negatively Eastern Province and northeastern regions affect the growth of crops and the physiological of Southern Province, suggesting increasing functions of plants. Comparison of historical localized erosion risk. From 1981-2015, the and future trends indicates that moisture P95 has tended to increase, with most years stress is expected to increase across both experiencing values between 12 and 25 mm/day. provinces by 8 to 11 days in the first rainy Future climatic projections predict a decreasing season (Figure 7). Southern Province, with a trend, with a few high values, in the 2020s and high number of CDD, will experience significantly 2030s (Figure 6). In the future, it is expected that higher moisture stress than Eastern Province. the long rainy season will become wetter, with Figure 6. Historical (right), and future projected (center), and projected change (right) for the Maximum 5-day running average precipitation (average of last 30 years) for Eastern and Southern Figure 3. Historical annual mean precipitation and temperature in the Eastern and Southern Province. Provinces. Figure 4. Historical (left), and future projected (center) and projected change (right) for the maximum Figure 7. Historical (right), and future projected (center), and projected change (right) for the number number of consecutive dry days within the year (all year) (average of last 30 years) for Eastern and of days with moisture stress (average of last 30 years) for Eastern and Southern Provinces. Southern Provinces. 24 25 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia 5.3. Crop suitability analysis on the indicator selected; for instance, we used Figure 9. Historical and future (scenario RCP 8.5, periods 2030 and 2050) suitability changes of NT35 as the heat stress indicator. soybean production in Eastern and Southern Provinces In our crop suitability analysis, we used the EcoCrop model to locate suitable areas for Historically, Eastern and Southern Provinces crop production under current and future had high suitability (100%) to produce climate scenarios (Ramirez-Villegas et al groundnuts and soya beans. According to our 2011). EcoCrop has been used to conduct climate analysis, crop suitability analysis for suitability assessments and understand the groundnuts will remain high. Slight decreases impacts of climate change on a large number in suitability will occur in the southern, eastern, of crops. The analysis is based on WorldClim and western regions of Southern Province. v1.4 data for the historical or near-current About 50% of the province will see decreases climate, and on an ensemble of 5 downscaled by 2050. However, small areas of the province global climate models for the future under RCP will conversely become more suitable (Figure 8). 8.5 (Hijmans et al. 2005; Navarro-Racines et al. Overall suitability will remain above 80% in 2030 2020). Monthly climate datasets are generated and in 2050. Meanwhile, the suitability of soya using different types of models. In this study we beans will remain the same in the entire Eastern used global climate models, such as “MOHC_ Province in 2030 and 2050. Southern Province, HADGEM2_ES”, named after the agency that however, will become less suitable in the south; developed the model, the Met Office Hadley suitability will decrease in about 50% of the Centre. we simulated daily records from the province by 2050. Overall suitability will remain monthly datasets and identified various climate above 80% in 2030 and in 2050 according our hazard indicators (Navarro-Racines et al. (2020). projection (Figure 9). To do this, we used various models depending 5.4. Climate vulnerabilities across farmers’ ability to purchase required inputs and agriculture value chain affects other actors in the value chain. Prices for commodities consumers increase due to higher demand. Figure 8. Historical and future (scenario RCP 8.5, periods 2030 and 2050) suitability changes of 5.4.1. Groundnuts Floods are destructive, potentially resulting groundnuts production in Eastern and Southern Provinces Droughts have been a recurrent climate in increased waterlogging, soil erosion, hazard in Eastern and Southern Provinces. destruction of infrastructure, and outbreaks They can result in water stress that leads to of human diseases like malaria. Waterlogging crop failure during germination. During drought at sowing affects plant germination, potentially seasons, a hard soil pan develops, which resulting in stunted growth and low germination constrains harvesting and land preparation. rates, erratic and poor establishment of plants, Hard soil pans also hinder water percolation, and consequently, low yields (Sesay, 2009). consequently interfering with plant initiation Low germination rates and stunted growth and proper pod formation. Groundnuts, while hamper production and reduce the volume of relatively hardy due to their extensive root marketable produce, decreasing the anticipated systems, are sensitive to moisture changes. income of farmers and traders along the value Soil moisture stress due to drought affects chain. An outbreak of serious fatal diseases like germination, root and shoot development, and malaria, meanwhile, reduces the availability of flowering. It interferes with the quality – size, labour, and the destruction of infrastructure shape, and color – of nuts, and reduces their impedes the transportation of inputs and protein and oil content. Additionally, because outputs, affecting all major actors along the groundnut farming is more labour-intensive value chain. than growing other crops like maize and cotton, ground moisture stress results in a shortage of 5.4.2. Soya beans labour during harvesting periods, resulting in lower productivity. If less marketable produce Diminished rainfall, with low intensity and is generated, this situation in turn diminishes fewer rainy days, has become common. 26 27 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia This situation leads to moisture the volume of milk it produces. stress, which inhibits the growth Sourcing for alternative feed, of soya beans, resulting in low meanwhile, results in increased production. Soya bean plants are cattle movement, which leads to highly susceptible to inadequate greater incidence of foot-and- moisture during their flowering mouth disease. In other cases, and pod filling stages. Insufficient farmers must purchase feed at rainfall severely affects their an increased price. Additionally, physiological maturity as it scarcity and low quality of feed interferes with pod size and may result in reduced quality and weight, requiring supplemental quantity of milk. During droughts, irrigation during these critical temperatures are generally high, stages. If low production reduces and these conditions may result the volume of marketable soya in milk losses due to poor post- beans, prices may increase, harvest handling techniques. High negatively affecting consumers temperatures may also threaten and traders. However, this does dairy cattle; heat stress and death not necessarily result in increased can occur, especially in young income for farmers because of the calves. Lower volumes of milk low volumes they produce. available for sale and processing leads to higher prices, negatively Soya beans are sensitive to affecting consumers. temperature changes, which can affect their growth, yield, Extreme rainfall may enable and quality. High temperatures better fodder growth; impact the germination stages and however, it may also lead to can reduce number of flowers and overproduction of milk. During seeds per pod. High temperatures the rainy season, milk production during flowering can result in exceeds processing capacity, pollen sterility and a reduced resulting in lower milk prices. seed set, potentially leading to Lower prices mean less income smaller production volumes for farmers, constraining their and lower-quality produce. Poor ability to purchase necessary quality and quantities of soya inputs such as medication and beans negatively affect traders supplements. Excessive rainfall because both factors can increase can also have severe impacts on their transactional cost to source dairy farming, especially when it produce. Some traders resort to leads to destruction of structures mixing low quality and high-quality that shelter the animals or produce and selling at high prices results in flooding that can kill livestock. Additionally, after heavy 5.4.3. Milk rainfall, the incidence of foot-and- Droughts affect fodder mouth disease increases, which production. Scarcity of fodder potentially results in deaths of may compel farmers to reduce livestock and increased production their animals’ dietary intake costs associated with disease or feed quality. Decreasing a control and management. cattle’s dietary intake diminishes 28 29 ©CIAT/NeilPalmer Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia to enhance their business. Processors are also Across the selected value chain commodities, 6. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability trained in the use of renewable energy for milk there is a consensus among stakeholders cooling. Additionally, the GIC links farmers and about the importance of growing improved processors to improve service delivery. soya bean and groundnut seed varieties Key messages that are bred to tolerate or resist present climate hazards and fulfill different consumer » Farmers have developed a variety of ongoing coping strategies to deal with risks 6.2. Overall ranking of the needs (Table 1). Other promising adaptation related to climate change. adaptation strategies options at the input stage include investment » In addition, the GIC in Zambia has been using different participatory approaches in water conservation technologies and the use Stakeholder assessments, conducted using to train farmers and strengthen their adaptation to climate change. structured questionnaires, identified current of efficient irrigation systems, which will reduce the risks associated with rainfall variability in » Stakeholders ranked high-priority adaptation strategies within each value and novel adaptations that reduce agricultural chain, including the use of minimum tillage and good management practices for Eastern and Southern Provinces. For on-farm risk and help value chain actors adapt to climate groundnuts, the use of new varieties of soya beans, and use of improved breeds change. These experts were sourced from a production, stakeholders agree on the benefits for milk. of using climate-smart technologies such as range of institutions and disciplines. They build intercropping, crop diversification, conservation » The highest-ranked innovations in the groundnut and soya bean value chains on information collected under the climate agriculture, and integrated pest and disease promise increased yields, although they also involve an element of financial risk. impact modeling process to identify adaptive management. For dairy farmers, improved strategies. They provide a foundation for » Financial support can ensure that most smallholder Zambian farmers will have livestock breeds, feed conservation, animal understanding both the types and severity of good outcomes after implementing these adaptation strategies. husbandry practices, and milk hygiene are risks to each value chain. promising strategies to boost milk production and quality. 6.1. On-farm adaptation strategies adapted to different climatic hazards. When there are dry spells, farmers ration available Farmers report employing several coping feed or augment with grain legumes. In addition, strategies to maximize their production and seasonal cattle migration is very common in limit the adverse effect of climate change search of pasture and water. In particular, herds risks. These coping strategies include using new, from Mumbwa, Mongu and Senanga, during improved varieties adapted to unpredictable dry spells, travel down to the floodplains. Dairy rainfall; planting in stages; adopting good farmers rely heavily on local awareness for the agricultural practices like mixed cropping, control of insect pests and diseases in livestock. planting basins, and ripping; and engaging in They are organised in clusters to sell milk to crop diversification and conservation agriculture. processors and traders jointly. Replanting crops due to delayed rains is common. Some farmers practice crop and The GIC in Zambia has been implementing income diversification by engaging in off-farm several interventions along the groundnut, employment and running small businesses. soya bean, and milk value chains. It is helping Agricultural practices like minimum tillage, train farmers in improved seed varieties, intercropping, crop rotation are specific for soya conservation tillage, crop rotation, and and groundnuts farming. Lastly, in extreme agroforestry. The GIC uses different participatory conditions, farmers sell their assets or borrow approaches in capacity building such as a lead money to maintain their livelihoods. farmer network, cooperatives, and radio shows. In the milk value chain, the GIC helps educate Farmers keep indigenous cattle for livestock and farmers about breeding, milk hygiene, animal rely on natural grazing to feed their animals. health, the management of dairy cows, feeding They also devote plots on their farms for their regimes, fodder production, and business animals to grow grass and forages. They practice skills, and it links them to financial institutions mixed farming and diversification to be well 30 31 ©CIAT/NeilPalmer Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Table 1. Specific practices within each practice group relevant to the focus value chains Table 2. Adapting to climate change: strategies across major value chain commodities Practice Ground Nut Soya Bean Milk Groups Value Value Value Chain Chain Chain GROUND POST- Rangeland management • Pasture NUTS input ON-FARM Harvest marketing commercialization Drought • High cost of labour • Onerous land • Poor nut quality in • Fluctuating market Conservation • Conservation • Conservation and other inputs preparation due to terms of size, shape, prices due to low agriculture Agriculture Agriculture like seeds due to hardpans and color volumes reaching replanting. • Poor germination • Low volumes of trading centres. • Minimum tillage* • Crop diversification rates. groundnuts for • Crop diversification • Intercropping processing • Intercropping • Pest damage. Production best • Good agricultural • Early planting • Improved animal Magnitude of MODERATE SEVERE MAJOR MODERATE practices impactpractices husbandry • Early planting Promising • Dry-season land preparation using minimum tillage methods; COMACO “Better Life Book”5; adaptation conservation farming; agroforestry; lead farmer networks; promotion of early planting; promotion Risk insurance • Weather index • Weather index • Livestock insurance options of drought-resistant seeds for soya beans and groundnuts; “Farm Talk” radio show; retention of crop insurance insurance residues; use of mulch or ground cover; strengthening of cooperatives; use of certified seeds from local seed banks. Water management • Irrigation efficiency • Irrigation efficiency • Irrigation • Water conservation • Water conservation Farmers • Use of manual family labour; use of farmers’ or recycled local seed; on farm processing e.g. shelling; strategies use of animal draught power. technologies technologies Diet management • Feed conservation Floods • Poor labour • Waterlogging in • Increased risk of • Fluctuating market • Agroforestry (fodder availability due to groundnut fields; aflatoxin and fungal prices. trees) incidence of diseases • Poor germination diseases in storage; like malaria; rates; • Reduced quality of Genetic/variety • Improved varieties • New varieties* • Improved breeds* • High costs of inputs • Crop failure. groundnuts. improvement • Improved varieties • Improved animal and labour. husbandry Magnitude of MAJOR SEVERE MAJOR MODERATE Integrated Pest • Integrated pest • Integrated pest impact Management management management Promising • Use of climate resilient varieties; integrated pest management; crop insurance; early warning Improved storage • Feed conservation adaptation systems; Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs); soil and water conservation strategies. • Milk hygiene options Farmers’ • Crop diversification, re-sowing, use of improved varieties, shifting to higher planting sites. strategies *Denotes that this is the highest-ranked adaptation strategy for its respective value chain. Interventions • Use of certified seeds from local seed banks; “Farm Talk” radio show; conservation farming; through GIC agroforestry; “Better Life Book”; strengthening of cooperatives; lead farmer networks. Other potential adaptation strategies that Along the milk value chain, adaptive technologies could help farmers cope with the effects include agroforestry, especially fodder trees; of climate change along the soya bean and irrigation; the commercialization of pasture; groundnut value chains include integrated and livestock insurance. Across each of the pest management, water conservation, organic three value chains, different adaptation options production, early planting, and weather index were identified. There were similar options for insurance. The meteorological department can multiple value chains addressing similar risks also guide farmers about cropping calendars. (Table 2). 51 A book that increases knowledge on sustainable agriculture through illustrations championed by Community Markets for Conservation (COMACO). 32 33 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia 6.3. Cost benefit analysis of least a 38% as compared to BAU (Table 3). The the prioritized adaptation benefits associated with these two innovations strategies include increased yields per ha, rather than the reduction in the costs of maintenance, POST- A CBA is critical when making investment installation, and operations. When compared Milk input ON-FARM Harvest marketing decisions, including those associated with with BAU, the use of minimum tillage and CSA practices. This is because a CBA allows for good management practices in the groundnut Drought • Supplementation of • Incidences of pests • Low quantities of • High demand and the comparison of costs and returns associated feed or fodder. and disease; increased milk. low supply, leading value chain increases yields by 80%, and with a given CSA practice versus the status quo, costs of on-farm • Higher costs for to fluctuations in the use of improved varieties of soya beans production, e.g. processing. market prices. also referred to as business as usual (BAU) or increases yields by 111% (Figure 10). disease control and conventional practice (Ng’ang’a et al., 2017). management. Three CBA indicators, the Net Present Value The NPV associated with the use of minimum (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and payback tillage and good management practices in Magnitude of period, show the profitability associated with LOW MAJOR MODERATE MODERATE the groundnut value chain is US$ 2,738 per impact an improved practice or innovation. The NPV ha, and the NPV associated with the use of measures the incremental flow of net benefits Promising • Construction of livestock service centres, milk collection centres, livestock marketing centres, improved varieties of soya bean seeds is adaptation livestock slaughter facilities, district veterinary laboratories, quarantine stations, and veterinary from the innovation over its lifecycle, while the US$ 1,562 per ha (Table 4). The IRR associated options check points; increasing access to financial services; improved breeding or artificial insemination; IRR is the discount rate that equates NPV to commercial fodder enterprises; milk handling, cooling, processing, and hygiene; feeding regimes with the use of minimum tillage and good 0. A higher IRR indicates that an innovation is and fodder production; introduction of livestock insurance; livestock diversification; local processing management practices in the groundnut value using renewable energy for milk cooling; better management of dairy cows; enhancement of market profitable. The payback period is the number chain is 415%, and the IRR associated with the linkages; good animal husbandry practices; animal health; a stronger role of dairy cooperatives in of years it takes to recoup the initial capital service provision through improving their organization, business management, governance, and use of improved seed varieties in the soya bean invested. institutional capacity. value chain is 252%. Both these IRRs are higher Farmers • Seasonal migration of cattle; crop diversification; feed rationing or supplementation; local pests and than the prevailing discount rate in the market. strategies We computed a CBA for the highest-ranked diseases management practices. Both innovations also have a payback period innovations for the groundnut value chain, of one year (Table 4). Innovations with a short specifically the use of minimum tillage and Extreme • Low cost of feeds, • Incidences of pests • Lower processing • Higher milk payback period tend to appeal to smallholder rainfall quantities, which good management practices, and for the since pasture and and disease; increased costs. farmers, whereas a longer payback period can fodder become costs of on-farm could lower milk soybean value chain, specifically the use of act as a disincentive to adopting and scaling up readily available. production, e.g. prices and reduce new varieties of soya beans. New, improved disease control and farmers’ incomes. an innovation. varieties of soya beans provide high yields management; • Potential for better and are very resistant to diseases. The use fodder growth. The risk associated with the use of minimum of minimum tillage and good management tillage and good management practice in practices in the groundnut value chain was Magnitude of the groundnut value chain and the use of an LOW SEVERE LOW LOW impact prioritized, meanwhile, because of its potential improved variety of soya beans value chain to conserve water and provide superior yields. Promising • Access to financial services and products like insurance and credit facilities, keeping improved was modelled using Monte Carlo Simulations The lifecycle for the use of minimum tillage and adaptation climate resilient dairy breeds; integrated pest and disease management; training on proper animal (n=10,000). The results show the probability options husbandry practices; Diversification. good management practices in the groundnut of making unprofitable returns after investing value chain is 10 years, whereas the lifecycle for Farmers • Using local practices to manage diseases; engaging in crop diversification; hawking milk using in the use of minimum tillage and good the use of new seed varieties in the soya bean strategies informal market channels; using improved pasture or fodder varieties. management practices for groundnuts, and value chain is 20 years. in the use of improved varieties of soya beans Interventions • Feeding regimes or fodder production; improved genetic breeding or artificial insemination; better (column 6, Table 4). The risk associated The implementation and maintenance of through GIC management of dairy cows; milk hygiene and training on proper animal health; local processing with the use of minimum tillage and good using renewable energy for milk cooling; broadened access to financial services; commercial fodder minimum tillage and good management management practices for groundnuts enterprises; strengthening cooperatives and SACCOs; market linkages. practices in the groundnut value chain requires is about 25%; the same is true of using at least 4% more capital than BAU, whereas improved varieties of soya bean seeds. This the use of improved varieties of soya beans figure is calculated given the characteristics of requires 2% more capital (Table 3). These two the cumulative density function expressing the innovations increased operating costs by at probability of the NPV being less than or equal 34 35 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia to the costs of adopting these innovations, such returns, meaning that out of every 1000 farmers Table 4. Profitability associated with prioritized innovations for Zambian soya bean and groundnut as implementation, maintenance, and operation who adopts and implements either of these value chains costs (Table 4). innovations, about 250 may end up making unprofitable returns. This level of risk may be Value chain Innovation Profitability indicators The use of minimum tillage and good too unbearable for smallholder farmers and management practices in the groundnut value may, therefore, be a barrier to their adoption. NPV in IRR in Payback Riskiness of investment chain and the use of improved seed varieties in This possibility underscores the need for the US$ (%) period the soya bean value chain are both profitable provision of a sufficient financial support (years) and have a relatively short payback. These base for farmers to operate at least until they Ground nuts Use of minimum tillage 2,738 415 (>r) 1 This innovation has about a innovations, however, carry a considerable reach the break-even point. and good management 26% probability of making risk, a 25% chance of making unprofitable practices in production unprofitable returns Soya beans New, improved varieties 1,562 252 (>r) 1 This innovation has about a Table 3. Installation costs for BAU and the two prioritized innovations in the Zambian groundnut and of seeds 25% probability of making unprofitable returns soya bean value chains NB: >r implies that the practice is privately profitable Value chain Installation Costs Maintenance costs Operation Cost (Innovation) (US$/ha) (US$/ha) (US$/ha) BAU Improved % BAU Improved % BAU Improved % A CBA is important for evaluating innovations, for strengthening future household resilience. seed change seed Change seed change especially when an investment decision needs These two innovations are both profitable and variety in cost variety in cost variety in cost to be made. There are limitations associated have a high IRR and a short payback period, and Groundnuts with CBA methodology such as potential these factors could explain why they emerged (Minimum tillage and 457 500 +9 7,892 8,052 +2 739 1,021 +38 inaccuracies when identifying and quantifying as a strong choice for stakeholders during the good management practices) costs and benefits for a given innovation. prioritization process in Zambia. However, when Nonetheless, a CBA is critical for planning, the distribution of the NPV is considered, both Soya beans 867 904 +4 7,097 7,395 +4 753 1,546 +105 targeting future investments, and identifying innovations have a considerable probability of (Use of new varieties) potential barriers to scaling up innovations. The returning unprofitable results. Yet since they use of minimum tillage and good management are still profitable, it makes economic sense practices in the groundnut value chain and the to promote them for scaling up. If they are Figure 10. Yield for BAU versus prioritized innovations use of an improved variety of seeds in the soya so promoted, sufficient financial support bean value chain are both “no-regret options” needs to be provided to ensure that they 2500 because they will yield economic benefits now produce desirable outcomes for a majority of and in the future and are, therefore, important smallholder farmers in Zambia. 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Business as Minimum tillage and Business as Use of new usual good management usual improved variety practice of soya beans GROUNDNUTS SOYA BEANS 36 37 Yield (kg/ha) Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia 7. Synthesis and Recommendations Climate projections indicate that climate • Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit Table 5. Practice-group specific potential strategies and considerations for advancing CSA at scale change-related variability will increase (DMMU) of the Vice President’s Office in frequency and severity in the 2020s • Ministry of Agriculture through the 2050s. Extreme climate hazards • Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock like droughts and floods will become frequent Existing and potential and severe, affecting food security, disrupting • Zambia Agricultural Research Institute (ZARI) Partnerships funding Synergies livelihoods, and widening existing inequalities. • Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) To enhance Zambia’s national adaptive • Ministry of Lands, Natural Resources and • World Bank (Global • Good potential for blended • Improved soil health supports capacity, collaborative, large-scale action will be Environment Facility) green finance, using public yields and water retention, Environmental Protection • Netherlands Development funds as a de-risking instrument, thus increasing both market necessary, involving farmers, the government, • Zambia Climate Change Network Organization (SNV) delivered through cooperatives stability and climate resiliency non-governmental organizations, civil society, The World Bank to support farmer-initiated • and private-sector institutions. investments in long-term • United Nations Development Programme productivity According to our CBA, the use of minimum • Norwegian Agency for Development • World Bank (Global • Good potential for blended green • Improved soil health tillage and good management practices Cooperation Environment Facility) finance, using public funds as a supports yields and water in the groundnut value chain and the use • Global Environment Facility • Africa Development Bank de-risking instrument, delivered retention, thus increasing (AfDB) through cooperatives to support both market stability and of improved varieties of soya beans are • United States Agency for International • 7th National Development farmer-initiated investments in climate resiliency both profitable and have a relatively short Development (USAID) Plan long-term productivity payback period; however, these innovations • German Agency for International carry a considerable risk. Therefore, for Cooperation(GIZ) • Africa Development Bank • Good potential for blended green • Supports climate-resiliency value chain interventions to be effective, it is • International Union for Conservation of (AfDB) finance, using public funds as a and yields, thus improving important that implementing actors draw on the de-risking instrument, delivered market stability Nature experiences, needs, demands, and priorities of through cooperatives to support potential beneficiaries. • Department for International Development farmer-initiated investments in (DFID) long-term productivity Going forward, high potential activities for • Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) addressing climate risk in Zambia include • Good potential for blended green • Supports climate-resiliency practice groups spanning input optimization, finance, using public funds as a and yields, thus improving good production practices, and post harvest. de-risking instrument, delivered market stability through cooperatives to support A variety of opportunities for collaboration, farmer-initiated investments in funding, and synergies exist for these practices long-term productivity (Table 5). In addition, common challenges and opportunities are observed across all practices. • Good potential for blended green • Supports both productivity For example, common barriers that challenge finance, using public funds as a and environmental/land the general implementation of climate-aware de-risking instrument, delivered restoration goals programming in Zambia include low capacity, through cooperatives to support farmer-initiated investments in high cost of inputs, little or no access to financial long-term productivity services, persistently low yields, and labor shortages. Additionally, several organizations are well positioned to offer general support across all potential activities, including: • Ministry of Finance 38 39 Integrated Pest Diet Production best Conservation Rangeland Practice Management management practices agriculture management group Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia Existing and potential Partnerships funding Synergies • Public and private interests with • De-risks changes toward good blended finance potential unknown new production practices and continued production in the face of climate change • Public and private interests with • Supports climate-resiliency good blended finance potential and yields, thus improving market stability • Netherlands Development • International research • Supports climate-resiliency Organization (SNV) funding offers robust support; and yields, thus improving • World Bank (Global diversification toward local and market stability Environment Facility) culturally important crops needed • Africa Development Bank (AfDB) • Africa Development Bank • High potential for private sector • Reduces losses, thus (AfDB) investing increasing profits and supporting markets stability, particularly inter-seasonally ** based on literature The inadequacy of practical skills and In addition to technologies, it is also knowledge related to adaptive technologies important to invest in the enabling in the agricultural sector, and specifically in environment to support climate change the soya bean, groundnut, and milk value adaptation. There is a variety of ways to chains, calls for stronger sensitization and enhance adaptation efforts across Zambia. farmer training programmes. For example, Examples include linking science to decision climate-smart mechanization is necessary to making through extensive research and data reduce drudgery in farming activities for soya collection; eliminating barriers that hinder policy beans and groundnuts. Similarly, to increase and decision making at the sub-national level; milk productivity and link farmers to markets, and monitoring and evaluating the efficiency of they need knowledge and skills for improved policies, strategies, and programmes. Different animal husbandry practices. In addressing these types of services such as climate information, challenges, it is important to consider gender agro-advisories, financial services, and access to roles, responsibilities, and benefits across the electricity can help furnish favorable conditions stages of the value chain in order to identify for development of all three value chains. technologies that are beneficial to both men and   women. Overall, interventions should save costs, increase production, and improve incomes. 40 41 Improved Genetic/variety Water Risk Practice storage improvement management insurance group ©Research Fellow IITA/CCAFS Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Groundnut, soya bean, and milk value chains in Eastern and Southern provinces, Zambia 8. Works Cited Central Statistical Office. (2016). Post Harvest Survey 2014-2015 Agriculture season (Small and Navarro-Racines, C., Tarapues, J., Thornton, P. et al. (2020). 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AcknowledgmentS This study was conducted by the Alliance of Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), under the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), supported by the Green Innovation Centres for the Agriculture and Food Sector (GIC) implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) under the framework of the special initiative “ONE WORLD – No Hunger” on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The document has been developed by Ivy Kinyua under the technical leadership of Stephanie Jaquet, Caroline Mwongera, Stanley Karanja and Evan Girvetz and with contributions from the climate modelling team: Harold A.E. Achicanoy, Alejandra Esquivel, Aniruddha Ghosh, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, and the agricultural economics team: Devinia Akinyi, Dorcas Jalango, George Kanyenji, Bwema Ombati. We acknowledge the contribution of the project manager for GIZ: Bjoern Hecht, Heike Herdenand of the GIC team in Zambia: Cynthia Mwandwe, Mwansa Mungela, Stefan Fett. Technical review and editing: Annalese Duprey, Stephanie Pentz, Mehrey Vaghti, and Megan Mayzelle Infographics and layout: Katya Kuzi This document should be cited as: Bioversity International & CIAT, CGIAR CCAFS, and GIZ. 2020. Adapting Green Innovation Centres to Climate Change: Analysis of value chain adaptation potential. Groundnut, Soya Bean, and Milk Value Chains in Eastern and Southern Provinces, Zambia 44 45 ©www.freepik.com