1 6 2 CIP POTATO BREEDING PROGRAM Breeding Cost Structure for Effective Breeding Decision in Africa Martin Munyaka, Lennin Musundire, Samuel Mutiga, Olivia Odiyo, Moctar Kante, Thiago Mendes December 2023 3 Breeding Cost Structure for Effective Breeding Decision in Africa © International Potato Center 2023 DOI: 10.4160/cip.2024.01.004 CIP publications contribute important development information to the public arena. Readers are encouraged to quote or reproduce material from them in their own publications. As copyright holder CIP requests acknowledgement and a copy of the publication where the citation or material appears. Please send a copy to the Communications Department at the address below. International Potato Center P.O. Box 1558, Lima 12, Peru cip@cgiar.org • www.cipotato.org Citation: Munyaka, M.; Musundire, L.; Murtiga, S.; Odiyo, O.; Kante, M.; Mendes, T. 2024. Breeding Cost Structure for Effective Breeding Decision in Africa. Lima, Peru: International Potato Center. 17 p. DOI: 10.4160/cip.2024.01.004 Cover photo: Breeding trial at University of Nairobi – Kabete Campus. Credit: Thiago Mendes. Design and Layout: Communications Department December 2023 CIP also thanks all donors and organizations that globally support its work through their contributions to the CGIAR Trust Fund: www.cgiar.org/funders © 2024. This publication is copyrighted by the International Potato Center (CIP). It is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License http://www.cipotato.org/ http://www.cgiar.org/funders 4 Content Summary ......................................................................................................................................................... 5 1. Breeding Program Background ................................................................................................................... 6 2. Market Segments and Product Profiles ....................................................................................................... 6 3. Methodology and Breeding Metrics ........................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 8 3.2 Breeding Metrics Used to Cost Pipeline ..................................................................................................... 9 3.3 Germplasm Development Metrics ............................................................................................................. 9 4. Results ...................................................................................................................................................... 10 5. High-Level Summary ................................................................................................................................. 14 6. Recommendations .................................................................................................................................... 14 7. References ................................................................................................................................................ 15 8. Annex ....................................................................................................................................................... 16 5 Summary This report provides the results of the first costing analysis effort of the breeding pipeline “Potato East African table and processing for tropical highlands with Late Blight resistance” from the CIP program based in Kenya. The University of Queensland Breeding Costing Tool (UQ-BCT) was used to cost out the program. The current total cost of running the project is $132,029.05. The salary of the breeder was not captured in the costing. In the breakdown of operational costs, 22% is allocated to germplasm development, while the remaining 78% is attributed to germplasm evaluation. Some of the recommendations are i) encourage the optimization of the germplasm evaluation processes to increase efficiency and reduce the time and labour required, ii) work together with the procurement team to identify opportunities for negotiation and cost reduction with current suppliers, iii) enhance labour allocation and define clear roles for the breeding staff to improve trial supervision without incurring additional costs. 6 1. Breeding Program Background CIP is working on modernizing breeding operations in Africa to increase genetic gain and varietal adoption. The regional potato breeding effort is based on the rational use of adapted local potato germplasm to exploit the power of heterosis and increase diversity by introducing new alleles from exotic germplasm into CIP elite breeding gene pools, producing a novel of locally adapted potato varieties (Lindqvist-Kreuze et al. 2023). The program works from a regional breeding hub in Kenya, targeting African Highlands in Kenya, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Nigeria, Angola, Cameroon, Madagascar, DR Congo, Mozambique, and Burundi. The potato breeding goals in Africa include: i) Develop durable resistance to predominant diseases (late blight, virus, bacterial wilt), ii) Stable yields and quality with less water and under warmer temperatures, iii) Improve nutritional and market traits and iv) Develop varieties matching cropping system requirements. The breeding pipeline “Potato East African table and processing for tropical highlands with Late Blight resistance” is developing varieties for the Table and Processing market. Details about the breeding pipeline considered for the costing analysis are presented in Table 1. Table 1: Breeding Pipeline Details Organization International Potato Center (CIP) Crop Potato (Solanum tuberosum) Breading Pipeline Africa Table and Processing Late Blight Resistant Market Segment Potato 3 EAF Target Product Profile Table East-Africa Breeding Team Lead Thiago Mendes Assistant Breeder Martin Munyaka Date of Costing 24th November 2023 2. Market Segments and Product Profiles The potato market segments in Africa have been defined based on the insights outlined in Donovan et al. 2022. Specifically, for the East-Africa Africa highlands region, the market has been divided into two primary segments: table and processing (Chips and Crips). Detailed information about these segments can be found in the study conducted by Silvester et al. (2023) and https://glomip.cgiar.org/ . The potato production, the average yield from the four significant potato-producing countries in East Africa is presented in table 2 and the current Target Product Profile for the Table Potato Market in the Table 3. https://glomip.cgiar.org/ 7 Table 2: Potato production, the average yield from the four significant potato-producing countries in East Africa. Countries Production (t) Area Harvested (ha) Yield (t/ha) Kenya 2,108,000 215,000 9.80 Rwanda 938,000 113,000 8.30 Uganda 246,000 40,000 6.10 Ethiopia 1,125,351 78,276 14.37 East Africa 7,223,000 706,000 10.20 Africa 28,099 1,871,000 15.00 Source: FAOSTAT (average 2019-2021) Table 3. Current Target Product Profile for the Table Potato Market Trait type Trait name* Scale option Trait requirement Desired score Agronomic Tuber Yield tons/ha Nice to have 10% above check Marketable Tuber Yield tons/ha Essential: Improve 10% above check Biotic - Disease Late Blight Susceptibility 1 to 9 Essential: Improve <3 Potato Virus Y Resistance 1 to 7 Essential: Threshold 1 Potato Virus X Resistance 1 to 7 Nice to have 1 Bacterial Wilt Resistance 1 to 6 Nice to have <3 Biotic - Pests Potato Cyst Nematodes 1 to 9 Nice to have <3 Quality - Analytical Tuber Dry Matter Content % Nice to have 18 - 20 Chips Oil Absorption Rate % Nice to have <2 Tuber Flavor 1 to 5 Essential: Threshold >4 Tuber Cooking Quality 1 to 7 Nice to have <5 Tuber Cooking Time min Essential: Threshold <10 8 Tuber Glycoalkaloids Concentration ppm Essential: Threshold <15 Tuber Dormancy Period days Essential: Threshold <60 Quality - Visual Predominant Tuber Skin Color 1 to 9 Essential: Threshold 6, 5 or 1 Predominant Tuber Flesh Color 1 to 8 Essential: Threshold 4, 2 or 1 Chips Color 1 to 5 Nice to have <2 French Fries Color 1 to 5 Nice to have <2 Tuber Depth Eye 1 to 9 Essential: Threshold <3 Tuber Texture 1 to 5 Essential: Threshold >4 Tuber Appearance 1 to 9 Essential: Threshold >5 Tuber Shape 1 to 8 Essential: Threshold 2 to 7 Tuber Uniformity 1 to 9 Essential: Threshold >5 * Based on the potato ontology available at https://cropontology.org/term/CO_330:ROOT 3. Methodology and Breeding Metrics 3.1 Methodology The University of Queensland Breeding Costing Tool (UQ-BCT) was used to cost out the CIP Potato breeding pipeline in Africa. The assumptions (breeding metrics and unit/labour costs) to build the costing model were provided by Dr. Thiago Mendes. They are listed in the accompanying Excel files and the database generated in the UQ-BCT. The UQ-BCT can be downloaded at https://aussorgm.org.au/downloads/breeding-costing-tool/, into which the attached database can be loaded and adjusted as required. To effectively interpret the output, a brief definition of commonly used terms in the UQ-BCT is provided below: i) Project: Breeding Pipeline aligned to a specific Product Profile. The costed project is Table Irish Potato. ii) Component: Individual stages that form the breeding pipeline (Parents, Crossing Block, True Potato Seed Multiplication, etc.) iii) Activity: Specific functions performed in each Component (e.g. self-pollination, Data Collection, Land preparation). https://cropontology.org/term/CO_330:ROOT https://aussorgm.org.au/downloads/breeding-costing-tool/ 9 The UQ-BCT provides several reports, which are attached to this report. A brief explanation of each report is provided below: i. Project Overview Summary: Overall cost of the pipeline broken down by Pipeline Components. Breeding metrics provided during the CIP SSA Baseline Needs Assessment were used to map out pipeline components. ii. Project Overview Detail: Detailed activity costs for each component. This provides much more detail to identify each Component's highest activity unit costs. iii. Activity Unit Costs: The activity costs per unit are used to build the costing model. The CIP SSA provided them during the costing process. 3.2 Breeding Metrics Used to Cost Pipeline The metrics used in the costing of the potato breeding pipeline were provided by the lead breeder at the start of the engagement with the ABI-Transform team. These metrics include the information for all the stages of the breeding pipeline (Table 4). The activities of each component are accomplished in a season (6 months), except for NPT, which is conducted within two main seasons in 2 years. The smallest operational unit of the pipeline is a plant because one female plant can be crossed with multiple male parents of other genetic backgrounds. Therefore, for comparison purposes, the cost per plant will be used. 3.3 Germplasm Development Metrics Table 4: Breeding Metrices from the Potato Breeding Pipeline *OT: Observational Trial, PYT: Preliminary Yield Trial, IYT: Intermediate Yield Trial, AYT: Advanced Yield Trial, OFT: On-farm Trial, NPT: National Performance Trial, and DUS: Distinctness, Uniformity and Stability. Year Stage* Entries Potted/Field Plot Dimensions (m): Reps Location Plants/Entry Total Plants 1A Parents 60 Potted 1 1 1 60 1B Crossing block 100 Potted 5 1 1 500 2A Multiplication of TPS to Tubers 5500 Potted 1 1 1 5500 2B OT 5000 Field 0.75 x 0.75 1 1 1 5000 3A PYT 500 Field 0.75 x 0.30 1 2 5 5000 3B IYT 80 Field 0.75 x 0.30 3 4 10 9600 4A AYT 20 Field 0.75 x 0.30 3 4 40 9600 4B OFT 10 Field 0.75 x 0.30 1 150 40 60000 5A NPT 10 Field - KEPHIS 0.75 x 0.30 4 5 40 8000 5B DUS 2 Field - KEPHIS 6A On-Station Demonstration plots 4 Field 0.75 x 0.30 1 5 140 2800 10 4. Results The cost of the pipeline includes the operational and fixed costs and is equal to $132,029.05 (Table 6, Figure 4). Figure 1 displays the proportion of the total breeding pipeline cost by component. Table 5 presents the cost per Plant (operational and fixed costs) for each component of the Potato Breeding pipeline. The operating unit costs include consumables (items), cost of services, and salaries and wages for all personnel working within the program. The salary of the breeder was not captured in the costing. Fixed costs include costs of equipment and infrastructure, whose expenses must be paid regardless of whether the program is running or not. The field plot per component, relative to the cost of field plot at PYT can be observed in Figure 2. Figure 3, exhibits the logarithm of the cost of field plot per component, related to the cost of field plot at PYT. Figure 1: Proportion of the total breeding pipeline cost by component Parents 1% Crossing block 13% Seed Multiplication 4% OT 5% PYT 6% IYT 15% AYT 15% OFT 19% ODP 9% NPT 10% DUS 3% 11 Figure 2: Cost of field plot per component relative to the cost of field plot at PYT Figure 3: Logarithm of the cost of field plot per component, related to the cost of field plot at PYT. -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 C o st ( U S $ ) 12 Figure 4. Total Cost of Project Components of the Potato Breeding Pipeline. Table 5. Cost per Plant (operational and fixed costs) for each component of the Potato Breeding pipeline. Component Total cost (US$) # Entries # Reps # Locations Plants/entry Number of plants Cost per plant ($) Parents 1542.07 60 1 1 1 60 25.70 Crossing block 17917.75 100 5 1 1 2500 35.84 True Potato Seed Multiplication 5318.35 5500 1 2 1 11000 0.48 OT 6714.05 5000 1 1 1 5000 1.34 PYT 7733.33 500 1 2 5 5000 1.55 IYT 19820.47 80 3 4 10 9600 2.06 AYT 19941.85 20 3 4 40 9600 2.09 OFT 24755.34 10 1 6 40 2400 10.35 ODP 11921.67 4 1 5 140 2800 4.26 NPT 12998.23 10 4 5 40 8000 1.62 DUS 3981.63 2 1 1 40 80 49.77 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 P ar en ts C B TP SM O T P YT IY T A YT O FT O D P N P T D U S To ta l C o st ( U S $ ) 13 Table 6: The operational costs for all activities carried out within each Product Component. Project Component Activity Item cost (US$) Labor cost (US$) Total OC (US$) Non-labor Permanent* Defined term Casual Parents Parents Multiplication 379.66 0 260.68 0 640.34 Crossing Block Crossing 3246.66 0 12938.83 0 16185.49 True Potato Seed Multiplication TPSM- Naivasha 654.46 0 0 0 654.46 TPA- TPSM-Muguga 1440.6 0 2342.93 0 3783.53 Observational trial OB - Muguga 607.63 0 5601.54 0 6209.17 PYT PYT- NYA 1635.09 0 3520.36 86.14 5241.59 PYT- KAB 598.35 0 1316.59 0 1914.94 IYT IYT- Molo 2407.83 0 3379.54 82.67 5870.04 IYT- Nyandarua 2260.53 0 3526.48 82.67 5869.68 IYT- Kabete 251.65 0 1263.93 0 1515.58 IYT- Njoro 2377.96 0 3603.29 82.67 6063.92 AYT AYT- Kabete 317.95 0 1347.93 0 1665.88 AYT- Nyandarua 2317.82 0 3379.54 82.67 5780.03 AYT-Molo 2468.71 0 3379.54 82.67 5930.92 AYT-Njoro 2438.84 0 3526.48 82.67 6047.99 OFT OFT- Meru 1387.1 0 1929.47 0 3316.57 OFT- Molo 1120.43 0 1929.47 0 3049.9 OFT-Taita Taveta 1898.39 0 1929.47 0 3827.86 OFT- Mau Narok 1295.6 0 1929.47 3225.07 OFT- Multiplication 721.81 0 7226.07 7947.88 OFT- Nyandarua 973.13 0 1929.47 0 2902.6 NPT NPT- Seed Multiplication 231.51 0 32.85 0 264.36 NPT Y1&Y2 Evaluation 12000 0 0 0 12000 DUS DUS Cost 2400 0 0 0 2400 On-Station demonstration plots Demos- Kabete 334.89 0 287.09 621.98 Demos- Meru 2119.67 0 755.5 21.05 2896.22 Demos- Molo 1855.04 0 755.5 21.05 2631.59 Demos- Njoro 1778.59 0 1092.12 21.05 2891.76 TPA- Demos- Nyandarua 1619.27 0 792.9 21.05 2433.22 Total Cost US$ 53,139.17 0 69,977.04 666.36 123,782.57 % Proportion to Total Cost 42.93 0 56.53 0.54 93.75 *The assumption was that all CIP personnel are on a defined contract; hence, there is no permanent employee 14 5. High-Level Summary Germplasm developments account for 22% of the Total Cost, while 78% is attributed to germplasm evaluation. The Project Components that cost the highest per plant are: • The DUS component is $49.77 per plant. • Crossing blocks cost at $35.84 per plant • Multiplication of parents' nursery at $25.96 per plant. The cost per plant for germplasm development is $1.90, while it stands at $1.11 for On-Station trials. Off-station trials experience a higher cost of $4.11, and third-party trials have a cost of $1.62. In nurseries, the three most expensive operational costs are: • Cost of labour for the supervision of various activities (planting, pollinations, topdressing, harvesting potato berries, processing, and drying seeds etc.) in Muguga at US$ 2380.68 – 346.36 • Cost of forest soil in Muguga at US$ 840.00 • The cost of mileage chargeback in Muguga is US$ 184.72. For trials, the three most expensive operational costs are: • Cost of labour for the supervision of off-station demonstration plots at US$ 1473.32 – 102.15 • Cost of labour for the supervision of on-station activities • The cost of per-diem and accommodation at the Nyandarua trial site is US$ 745.80. Other significant costs include the expenses associated with visiting on-farm trials to assess varieties at individual sites. Generally, the supervision costs incurred by research assistants, research technicians and the lead breeder are significant. Trial site accommodation costs are also identified as significant contributors to the overall expenses. 6. Recommendations Streamline and optimise the germplasm evaluation processes to increase efficiency and reduce the time and labour required. Also, modern technologies, such as automated data collection and analysis tools, should be improved to enhance accuracy and speed in evaluation. Work with the procurement team to identify opportunities for negotiation and cost reduction with current suppliers. Optimise labour allocation and define clear roles for research assistants and technicians to improve trial supervision without incurring additional costs. Evaluate and enhance nursery management practices, focusing on labour efficiency and potentially cross- training personnel to handle multiple tasks. Search for alternative soil media and cost-effective approach for multiplication. Explore alternatives to reduce transportation costs for on-farm trials and accommodation options. 15 7. References Donovan, J., Coaldrake, P., Rutsaert, P., Bänzinger, M., Gitonga, A., Naziri, D., Demont, M., Newby, J. and Ndegwa, M. 2022. Market intelligence for informing crop-breeding decisions by CGIAR and NARES. Market Intelligence Brief Series 1. Montpellier: CGIAR. https://hdl.handle.net/10883/22248. Ojwang, S. O.; Okello, J. J.; Otieno, D. J.; Mutiso, J. M.; Lindqvist-Kreuze, H.; Coaldrake, P.; Mendes, T.; Andrade, M.; Sharma, N.; Gruneberg, W.; Makunde, G.; Ssali, R.; Yada, B.; Mayanja, S.; Polar, V.; Oloka, B.; Chelangat, D. M.; Ashby, J.; Hareau, G.; Campos, H. 2023. Targeting market segment needs with public-good crop breeding investments: A case study with potato and sweet potato focused on poverty alleviation, nutrition, and gender. Frontiers in Plant Science, 14. ISSN 1664-462X. 14 p. Lindqvist-Kreuze, H.; Bonierbale, M.; Gruneberg, W.J.; Mendes, T.; Boeck, B. de; Campos, H. 2023. Potato and sweetpotato breeding at the international potato center: approaches, outcomes and the way forward. Theoretical and Applied Genetics. ISSN 1432-2242. 37(12). Photo: Breeding trial at University of Nairobi – Kabete Campus 16 8. Anne Breeding program overview from UQ costing tool 1 6