Climate, Livestock and Poverty Challenges at the Interface Corporate Report 2008–9 International Livestock Research Institute Climate, Livestock and Poverty Challenges at the Interface Corporate Report 2008–9 International Livestock Research Institute ILRI PO Box 30709, Nairobi 00100, Kenya PO Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Text by Susan MacMillan based largely on published source material, including that by ILRI Director General Carlos Seré and ILRI agricultural systems analysts Philip Thornton and Mario Herrero. Layout by Muthoni Njiru. Design and production by Eric Ouma. Images by Stevie Mann. Critiqued by Shirley Tarawali. Proofread by Anne Muhato. Front cover: Livestock grazing on an island in the River Niger, as seen off a bridge in Niger’s capital, Niamey. Back cover: Woman carrying traditional water pots for sale in Niger. ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute). 2009. ILRI Corporate Report 2008–9. Climate, Livestock and Poverty: Challenges at the Interface. ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya. ISBN 92–9146–239–X © International Livestock Research Institute (Nairobi, Kenya) 2009. ILRI encourages use of information and materials herein, with appropriate credit. Printed on paper produced through sustainable afforestation. Contents FOREWORD by board chair and director general 5 CHAPTER ONE: Putting livestock on the climate change table 7 BOX ONE: Meeting a triple bottom line 9 CHAPTER TWO: Impacts of climate change on livestock systems in developing countries11 BOX TWO: Mapping vulnerability to climate change 21 CHAPTER THREE: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions of livestock systems 23 BOX THREE: What a 5-degree world will look like in Africa 27 APPENDICES Selected references 30 Financial highlights 2008 34 Board of trustees 2008 36 Selected staff 2008 37 About ILRI and the CGIAR 40 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT FOREWORD 5 Foreword Worldwide, agriculture both contributes to and saving, and insurance against crop failure? is threatened by climate change. This corporate report focuses on the millions of people in Experts predict that climate change will likely hurt developing countries for whom climate change both poor livestock keepers and the ecosystems represents a direct threat to their food security and on which they depend. The productivity of rain- livestock-based livelihoods. fed cropping systems is likely to drop, and to do so dramatically in some areas; water is likely In recent months, livestock have become a target to become scarcer, and water shortages more for those wanting to find simple ways to reduce the common, than today; and important human, world’s greenhouse gas emissions. That’s because, livestock and crop diseases are all likely to become in global terms, livestock contribute some 18 per more severe in places as well as to spread to new cent of the human-generated greenhouse gases regions. It is expected that many of the world’s causing global warming. In the following pages, 600 million small-scale livestock keepers will be we argue that lumping industrial-scale factory forced to change their husbandry practices to deal farming in rich countries with small-scale family with these major changes in their agro-ecological farming and herding practices in poor countries environments. They may, for example, change the obscures useful distinctions between the large mix of livestock species they keep, or change the and very different threats and opportunities that types of crops they grow, or switch to new sources livestock present in these contrasting regions. of feed or new feeding strategies for their animals. One figure is telling: just 3 per cent of the world’s Livestock producers will need to adapt their total emissions of greenhouse gases is generated production systems both to cope with climate by all the ruminant animals of sub-Saharan Africa, change and to reduce their carbon footprints. The which supports some 166 million poor livestock world’s 600 million small-scale livestock keepers keepers. If we were to somehow remove all in poor countries need technological and policy these domesticated animals, it might make little support to produce the greater amounts of milk, difference to global warming. (We don’t, and can’t, meat and eggs needed to feed the world and to do know whether, for example, wild herbivores and so more efficiently, with less environmental cost. termite mounds would take over many of these environments and end up producing as much It is by working with a far-reaching alliance greenhouse gas as domesticated ruminants.) What of partners that we hope to help people and we can be certain of is that the impact on African communities marginalized by poverty, hunger and livelihoods would be catastrophic. What, other environmental degradation be heard among the than livestock keeping, would most sub-Saharan clamour in this year’s climate change debates. We African and South Asian farming households turn thank all those who helped get these voices heard to in order to meet their needs for scarce protein, this year. It has been a privilege to work with and fertilizer, employment, income, traction, means of for you towards this common goal. Uwe Werblow Carlos Seré Chairman of the Board of Trustees Director General 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT CHAPTER ONE7 Putting livestock on the climate change table New options should focus on helping hungry animals and people adapt to climate change while mitigating the greenhouse gas emissions of small-scale livestock production systems. Farm animals have been providing the world with of many people of the North, under-consumption an uncommon array of benefits since before the of these nourishing foods is hurting, and killing, dawn of agriculture. Indeed, most small-scale many people of the South. In terms of the farming even today would be impossible without environment, livestock production globally causes them. But it is the world’s poorest people—some up to 18% of the human-generated greenhouse one billion of them—who depend on cattle, gases that are warming our planet. Livestock sheep, goats, chickens and other domestic do this both directly (methane, for example, is animals the most. Livestock keeping helps them produced in the rumination processes of cud- sustain their herding cultures or small-scale chewing animals) and indirectly (such as the farming (e.g., animal manure fertilizes croplands; felling of forests to make room for fodder crops cattle and buffalo pull ploughs and transport farm and ranching). The factory farms of industrialized produce to markets). Livestock provide them with countries not only can treat animals inhumanely a rare means of earning and saving an income but also can pollute air and water and threaten (people can sell milk, eggs, manure or surplus human as well as animal health. The herding stock, or they can find jobs in dairy or related and farming families of developing countries, businesses). Livestock foods feed hungry people on the other hand, typically maintain their (families can consume the milk, meat and eggs ruminant animals on poor-quality feeds that make their stock produce or sell these high-quality conversion of feed to milk and meat inefficient foods to buy cheaper starchy foods). And livestock and environmentally damaging—skinny ruminants are a last hedge to protect households against on poor diets, while not competing with people the shocks common to the rural poor—from for grain, produce much more methane per unit drought, flood or disease that destroys food crops of livestock product than do well-fed cattle, sheep in the field, to market distortions that make farm and goats. produce worthless, to civil unrest that makes people flee their homes, and, finally now, to a Just one hundred years ago, the principles and warmer world with increasingly unpredictable practices of animal husbandry were pretty similar weather and extreme weather events. across all the regions of the world where it was practiced (which pretty much meant all the But the inexorable rise of human populations, regions of the world). But as schisms have opened along with the aspirations and appetites of their up between the livestock production systems growing middle classes, have led also to global and peoples of today’s rich and poor worlds, we livestock populations of increasing numbers must now start from a new understanding—an and increasingly intensive livestock production understanding based on decades of livestock practices. While overconsumption of red meat and systems research—that ‘local context’ is and other livestock foods is damaging the health everything. 2008 ANNUAL REPORT 8CHAPTER ONE In the North, we need to focus on mitigating and environmental services that their livestock the impacts of livestock production and make possible and doing so in increasingly more consumption on climate change. We already efficient and sustainable ways. have many workable and alternative ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the With a perfect storm of food, water and energy environmental and health ‘bads’ of intensive shortages fast approaching—and 1 billion livestock production systems. We need to get livestock livelihoods at the very centre of a them implemented and to begin monitoring our nexus of human, climate and environmental reductions in livestock-produced greenhouse vulnerabilities—the time for helping developing gases as we begin to build more sustainable and countries and communities to transform their healthy food systems. livestock sectors has come. In the South, where most of the world’s poor As we move further into a 21st century live, work and are fed by hundreds of millions of characterized by depleted natural resources and small-scale farmers and herders, the impacts of the projected ‘human tsunami’ that is expected climate change will be greatest—and typically to peak by mid-century with a population of experienced at first hand. These farmers and more than 9 billion, those of us in research herders include the largely rainfed crop-and- for development need to focus our energy and livestock farming communities that, unknown to attention on the little- as well as well-known many, have become the world’s biggest source of levers that drive big change. staple foods for the poor as well as many of the world’s most renowned herding cultures. Across the developing regions of Africa, Asia and Latin America, the raising and selling of farm In the rural South, there are few ways of making a animals, and the increasing consumption of milk, living other than by producing food from the land. meat and eggs, together represent one of those Therefore, while we need to encourage people to ‘big-change’ levers. The ubiquitous small-scale mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions generated livestock enterprises found in every country of by their livestock enterprises, we need to focus the developing world can represent pathways out most urgently on helping these people and of poverty and hunger. They can also promote communities to adapt their production systems to climate change. Livestock researchers are acutely climate change. New incentives and technology aware that they are working at these critically and policy instruments should allow them to important crossroads. continue to provide the foods, jobs, livelihoods INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE BOX ONE9 Meeting a triple bottom line Livestock researchers are aiming to impact a triple are transmitted between animals and people. bottom line by simultaneously reducing poverty Livestock research is playing an increasing role in and hunger and slowing climate change. The helping to predict and prevent emerging diseases following examples show the advantages of taking in disease hotspots such as those of Eastern and a holistic and innovative ‘systems’ approach to Central Africa. For this reason, the pharmaceutical livestock livelihoods of the poor. company Roche in July 2009 donated a state- of-the-art DNA sequencer to Google.org-funded Reducing poverty, hunger and ill health research led by the International Centre of Scientists have identified alternatives to Western Insect Physiology and Ecology and conducted models of dairy farming and marketing that are at ILRI’s Nairobi laboratories, where advanced better suited to developing-world circumstances. livestock technologies are being used to improve In East Africa and South Asia, for example, our monitoring of infectious diseases, speed researchers are helping partners to train and our discovery of new ones, and train the next certify farmers and traders so they can sell their generation of African bioscientists. ‘raw’ (unpasteurized) milk in bottles or sachets without compromising consumers’ health. In Conclusion Kenya alone, this innovation is benefiting over Changing our food systems may be the biggest a million poor producers and small milk traders equity-plus-health-plus-environmental issue of previously neglected or harassed by the country’s our time. The task of feeding many more people dairy regulators, with benefits to the economy with diminishing natural resources while also estimated at USD33 million a year. tackling climate change and emerging diseases will need the help of livestock systems thinkers. Increasing and sustaining food production In wealthy nations, the practice of producing livestock in factory farms consumes large amounts of water, cereals and energy. In contrast, most livestock in poor countries are raised on family farms that consume few such resources. Livestock research is revealing strategies for improving the livelihoods of 1.2 billion people who operate small family farms while helping them to conserve their environmental resources. Such strategies include developing and using new varieties of triple-purpose crops (the grain feeds people while the stalks and leaves nourish both ruminant animals and farm soils) and improving the efficiency of smallholder livestock feeding strategies, water productivity and nutrient cycling. Controlling human and animal diseases More than 60% of human diseases, and 70% of the newly emerging diseases such as bird and swine flu, are ‘zoonotic’, meaning they CHAPTER TWO11 Impacts of climate change on livestock systems in developing countries Despite the importance of livestock to poor people and the magnitude of the changes that are likely to befall livestock systems, research on climate change and livestock in developing countries is relatively neglected. Little is known about the interactions of climate and increasing climate variability with other drivers of change in livestock systems. Tropical livestock systems, particularly those in China and Southeast Asia, are changing rapidly, and while some households may be able to take advantage of more conducive rangeland and cropping conditions, most will be more threatened than helped by the changes projected. Reviewing the literature on climate change This series of ‘change drivers’ is already having impacts on livestock and livestock systems in big impacts on the world’s 1.3 billion people developing countries, ILRI scientists in 2009 living on little more than one dollar a day. identified key knowledge and data gaps regarding how smallholders and pastoralists might respond Climate change to climate change. The scientists conclude that And of course the climate is also changing. research and development organizations will Physical and biological systems have already need to adjust their agendas to meet the needs undergone significant changes on all continents of vulnerable livestock keepers in the coming and in most oceans, and most of these changes decades. Given the complexity of livestock are congruent with warming temperature. (and, in most cases, crop-livestock) systems in Although there remains considerable uncertainty developing countries, a mix of technological, about how climate change will unfold in future, policy and institutional innovations will be recent ‘best estimates’ of temperature increases required. from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report are in the Livestock change drivers range 1.8–4 degrees centigrade in the 2090–2099 Livestock systems in developing countries are period relative to 1980–1999, depending on changing rapidly due largely to human population the particular scenario of future greenhouse-gas growth, with populations expected to increase emissions used to drive the climate models. from more than 6 billion today to more than 9 billion by 2050. More than 1 billion of this Temperature increases at even the lower end of increase will occur in Africa. The population rise this range will have far-reaching impacts that is fueling rapid urbanization, which is expected to will vary greatly by location. Climate change continue in developing countries, which in turn is will alter, for example, the regional distribution pushing up global demand for livestock products, of hungry people, with those in sub-Saharan which is also expected to increase livestock Africa likely to suffer the most. Smallholder production significantly in the coming decades. and subsistence farmers and pastoralists with 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 12CHAPTER TWO relatively little capacity to adapt to climate ILRI study of issues at the changes, such as rising sea levels or, in the Indo- climate change-livestock-poverty nexus Gangetic Plains and elsewhere, increasing water In 2009, ILRI staff reviewed elements in the scarcity due to retreating snow-packs, will suffer complex relations between livestock and climate complex, localized impacts of climate change. change in developing countries. The study used a classification of livestock systems in the The anticipated greater frequency and severity developing world built on the concept of the of extreme climate events will also harm food agro-ecological zone and distinguished 11 system production and food security. Even though our types, from extensive herding on rangelands to ability to model heat stress, drought and flooding intensive mixed crop-and-livestock farming to is still unsatisfactory, we can expect these events industrial production systems. These 11 different to become more frequent, reducing levels of crop livestock systems are clearly affected by climate and livestock productivity. change in different ways in terms of quantity and quality of feeds, heat stress, water needs, livestock Climate change impacts on the poor diseases (and the disease vectors that transmit Ninety per cent of those living on less than them), biodiversity and agricultural systems and USD1.25 a day live in Asia and Africa. Climate livelihoods. change will have major impacts on most of these people, including the more than 600 million Livestock feed people who raise livestock for their livelihoods. The possible affects of climate change on tropical These impacts include changes in the productivity forages and crop residues is little understood, of rainfed crops and forage, reduced water but with a strong relationship between drought availability and more widespread water shortages, and animal deaths, a warmer and drier climate in and changing severity and distribution of important regions such as southern Africa will probably lead human, livestock and crop diseases. Farmers will to bigger livestock losses in future. have to modify their livestock production systems by changing the mix of livestock species they keep, The temperature and amount of carbon dioxide the crops they grow, or the feed resources and/or in the atmosphere determine such factors as feeding strategies they employ. herbage growth and quality and the ratio of grasses to legumes in pastures and rangelands. Knowledge gaps More droughts will reduce dry-matter yields; Despite widespread concern that climate change more rain will leach nitrogen from soils. While will simply compound our already considerable the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide development challenges, little knowledge has in the atmosphere should improve water-use been gained about how climate interacts with efficiency in plants and thus improve crop yields, other agricultural change drivers today, even the temperature and rainfall changes expected in though such understanding is essential for the future will modify and often limit the direct evaluating how farming systems may evolve in beneficial effects of higher levels of carbon future. dioxide on plants. INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE CHAPTER TWO13 The study of climate change impacts on in mixed systems. Modeling studies indicate the growth of food crops, whose various that forage digestibility will decrease under all temperature thresholds are known, is relatively scenarios considered, possibly bringing about straightforward. Much less is known about the considerable decreases in animal performance. possible impacts of climate change on either the quantity or the quality of stover, straw and With few impact studies conducted for tropical other crop residues, which are key resources grasslands and rangelands, we know little of for feeding livestock in much of the developing the impacts of different temperature changes world. on these. Existing models of semi-arid grazing systems under climate change, for example, fail to Some information exists on the likely impacts predict the impacts of increased carbon dioxide of climate change on forage quality, although levels on plant productivity or to address the little seems to be relevant to the tropics. impact of changes in intra-annual precipitation Increased temperatures reduce the digestibility patterns, shortcomings that prevent us from of plant species, which in turn reduces nutrient determining ways to manage animal grazing in availability for animals, with consequences for semi-arid systems sustainably. A new generation both animal and human nutrition. These impacts of dynamic grazing models is needed to provide may be as important to grazing resources in land managers with the information they need to rangeland systems as they are to crop residues adapt to climate change. 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 14CHAPTER TWO Livestock heat stress livestock breeds are not known; nor do we know Global warming will alter heat exchange between if there are critical thresholds in the relationship animals and their environments, potentially between heat stress and physiological impacts. jeopardizing animal feed intake, growth, reproduction, maintenance, and longevity. The tropics and subtropics nevertheless contain a wealth of animal genetic resources that can Little work has been done on assessing the direct be used to address livestock problems related impacts of climate change on heat stress in to heat stress. There is considerable value animals, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. in better understanding the match between Lack of appropriate physiological models relating livestock populations, breeds and genes with the climate to animal physiology (termed a ‘major physical, biological and economic landscape; methodological void’ by some researchers) this ‘landscape livestock genomics’ approach, undermines predictions of the impacts of climate which is being investigated at ILRI and in partner change on livestock. institutions, should lead to a better fundamental understanding of the genetic basis of adaptation It is nevertheless clear that the heat stress caused of genotype to environment. Over the longer in livestock by increasingly hot and humid term, ongoing genetic improvement through both conditions will lead to reduced feed intake and natural and artificial selection should allow the thus a decline in productivity. The vulnerability improved stock to adapt to gradual changes in of livestock to heat stress varies according to climate. species and other factors. Increasing temperatures at higher latitudes are generally going to have Livestock water productivity greater impacts on livestock than those at While the coming decades will see increasing lower latitudes, where local livestock breeds demand and competition for water, with policies are often already quite well adapted to heat that address allocation and efficiency issues stress and drought. Smallholder dairy producers increasingly needed, attempts to quantify the in the developing world who have adopted impacts of climate change on water resources in high-yielding improved dairy cows bred for the land-based livestock systems in developing temperate regions could be at greater risk. High countries are fraught with uncertainty. temperatures also put a ceiling on milk yields irrespective of feed intake. The agricultural sector is the largest user of fresh water resources, accounting for some 70 per cent The wide geographic distribution of livestock of water use, although in recent decades water production is, of course, evidence of its use by non-agricultural sectors has grown faster adaptability to different climates. Indeed, than that for agriculture. livestock are a much better hedge than crops against extreme weather events such as heat A key issue for development agencies is the and drought. Even so, we essentially don’t know uneven distribution of water, with water scarcity whether the mean temperature increases of the already promoting hunger, ill health and poverty coming decades are within the range that can among 1–2 billion people worldwide. By 2025, be tolerated by today’s native breeds of tropical the percentage of the world’s population living cattle. Similarly, the impacts of increased in water-stressed basins will rise from 38 to 64 frequencies of extreme heat stress on existing per cent. INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE CHAPTER TWO15 Water use by the livestock sector includes not health and vector-borne diseases. The effects only water used for animal drinking and the of climate change on livestock and diseases growing of feed crops but also for processing transmitted by means other than vectors have animal products. Huge differences in water received much less attention. Given the global requirements occur in different livestock systems, burden of non-vector-borne diseases and the ways and assessing water use in the livestock sector animal diseases impoverish households in the remains a very inexact science. developing world, this needs to be rectified. The impacts of climate change on fresh water The mechanisms by which climate change may supply have received considerable attention. affect disease transmission have tended to be Climate change will more harm than benefit oversimplified in public discussions. Assessing the freshwater systems in many regions. Research impacts of climate change on livestock diseases in in Botswana concludes that the contribution of developing countries is particularly challenging. groundwater to extensive grazing systems will become even more important in future in the face Climate change will affect infectious disease of climate change. Countries such as Botswana burdens in many and extremely complex ways. will be challenged by their increasing reliance on While climate change will naturally affect disease groundwater for both their cattle sector and their complexes sensitive to ecological change, urban water supply. More complete quantification flooding, for example, will bring with it additional of the extent of such problems is needed to significant health risks that, although widely help governments implement judicious policies acknowledged, remain poorly characterized and for allocating and providing sustainable water for this reason are often omitted from formal supplies in future. analyses of flood impacts. The likely impacts of climate change on water Climate change may change the incidence, demand by livestock are more certain, with pathology or distribution of infectious diseases water intake increasing with increasing ambient in many ways. Changes in our climate can, for temperatures. Under Australian conditions, water example, affect the populations of pathogens requirements for beef cattle are likely to increase causing the diseases, the host’s immune responses by around 13 per cent for the climate scenarios to those diseases, the vectors transmitting disease- simulated. The number of stress days per year, causing organisms, and the spread of the disease. when the animals can no longer regulate their body temperature by sweating alone, is also The following are examples. likely to increase. We should accelerate work to Effects on pathogens: Higher temperatures may select cattle lines with effective thermoregulatory lead to increases or decreases of populations control, although combining the two desirable of pathogens or parasites. Models project that traits of tolerance of high temperatures and high bluetongue, for example, which affects mostly production potential may prove difficult. sheep and occasionally goat and deer, will spread from the tropics to mid-latitudes. Those pathogens Livestock disease that are sensitive to moist or dry conditions may Much of the relatively large literature on the be affected by changes in precipitation, soil prospective impacts of climate change on health moisture and the frequency of floods. Changes and disease is, not surprisingly, devoted to human in wind patterns could also affect the spread of 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 16CHAPTER TWO certain pathogens and vectors. affects livestock diseases, studies of climate- related diseases need to go well beyond simple Effects on hosts: While animals often have assessments of rainfall and temperature effects evolved genetic resistance to diseases to which on disease or vector distributions. It has been they are commonly exposed, they may be highly projected, for example, that by 2050 suitable susceptible to ‘new’ diseases. Climate change habitat for the brown ear tick, which causes East may bring about substantial shifts in disease Coast fever in cattle in 11 countries of Africa, will distribution, and outbreaks of severe disease have largely disappeared from the southeastern could occur in previously unexposed animal part of its existing range (southeastern Zimbabwe populations (possibly with a breakdown in and southern Mozambique), although its range ‘endemic stability’, which keeps a disease in may have expanded in western and central check). parts of southern Africa. Similarly, an ILRI study looked at the possible impacts of climate change Effects on vectors: Midges, flies, ticks and on cattle trypanosomosis by investigating likely mosquitoes are all important vectors of livestock changes in the habitat of the tsetse fly vector disease in the tropics. Changes in rainfall of this disease; while it was found that climate and temperature regimes may affect both the will modify tsetse habitats and thus populations, distribution and the abundance of disease vectors, changes wrought by demographic factors, such as can changes in the frequency of extreme as increased bush clearance by increasing human events. Outbreaks of some mosquito-borne populations, are likely to outweigh those brought diseases, for example, have been linked to El about by climate change. Niño-Southern Oscillation. Livestock diversity Effects on epidemiology: Climate change The wealth of the world’s remaining livestock may alter transmission rates between hosts by biodiversity lies mostly in developing countries, affecting the survival of the pathogen, parasite or where small-scale farmers and herders continue intermediate vector and by other means. Future to keep a variety of native breeds. It is here that patterns of international trade, local animal we must look to find and protect animal genetic transportation, and farm size are all factors that resources that may prove essential for coping with may be driven in part by climate change and may future climates. affect disease transmission. Modern drivers of change are already having Other indirect effects: Climate change may substantial impacts on biodiversity. Some two also affect the abundance and/or distribution of hundred years of breed improvement programs the competitors, predators and parasites of the and progressively industrial production systems vectors themselves, thus influencing patterns have helped to wipe out most of the native of disease. Changes in ecosystems driven by livestock breeds of the North. The Food and climate and land-use changes could give rise to Agriculture Organization of the United Nations new mixtures of species, thereby exposing hosts reports that of the nearly 4000 breeds of ass, to novel pathogens and vectors and causing the water buffalo, cattle, goat, horse, pig and sheep emergence of new diseases. recorded in the 20th century, some 16 per cent had become extinct by 2000, and 12 per cent of Given the complex ways that climate change what was left was rare. By 2007, 20 per cent of INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE CHAPTER TWO17 reported breeds were classified as at risk, with on biodiversity in different ecosystems will be almost one breed a month becoming extinct. another huge step. A good start is being made at ILRI, the Food and Agriculture Organization of The potential for widespread genetic devastation the United Nations and other organizations by in the future as a result of inexorably rising improving the characterization, conservation and temperatures is great. A 2.5 degree centigrade use of animal and forage genetic resources of the increase in global temperature above the pre- developing world, which still possesses a wealth industrial level may see major biodiversity losses. of biodiversity. It is estimated that 20–30 per cent of all plant and animal species assessed so far would be at Livestock systems and livelihoods high risk of extinction with such a temperature Most research on the agricultural impacts of rise. With a 4.5 degree centigrade increase, we climate change has focused on crops. Relatively would see major extinctions globally, and few few publications report on the impacts of climate ecosystems would be able to adapt. change on farming systems, regardless of whether they contain livestock or not. The impacts of such losses are difficult to imagine, and the problems that will be caused by While climate change looks to have strong the loss of genes for disease and pest resistance, impacts on agricultural systems of the future, for environmental adaptation and for other it is only one of several key drivers of change. desirable traits in both plants and animals cannot Population growth, globalization, urbanization, be over-stressed. Ecosystems and species are and the world’s rising middle classes in China, likely to show a wide range of vulnerabilities to India and other emerging economies are already climate change. Coral reefs and boreal forests are having great impacts on the world’s food systems. examples of highly vulnerable systems, where Livestock systems in developing counties are changes brought about by climate change are undergoing a particularly dynamic phase driven already observable. Less vulnerable ecosystems by increasing populations and incomes that are may include savannas and species-poor deserts. causing demand for livestock foods to skyrocket, particularly in parts of Asia, a trend projected There is no doubt that while pastoral livestock to continue well into the future, albeit at systems can help conserve wildlife diversity, diminishing rates. the livestock sector is also a major driver in habitat and landscape change, and thus plays a There have been few genuinely integrative attempts significant role in biodiversity loss. But isolating to disentangle the complexity of the evolution of the likely impacts of different drivers (including agricultural systems in developing countries in climate change) on genetic diversity is extremely relation to climate change and little has been done difficult. Considerable amount of new research to assess impacts at the level of the agricultural is needed to understand the role of different system. Some work has been done on how the components of biodiversity in the provision of geographic boundaries of agricultural systems may ecosystem goods (items with monetary value such shift in response to changing population densities as food and building materials) and services (such and climate. ILRI scientists, for example, have as the cleansing of water and air.) Subsequently mapped the movement of the potential cropping getting from that point to a realistic and detailed boundary (defined in terms of soil suitability assessment of the impacts of climate change and growing periods long enough to allow 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 18CHAPTER TWO annual cropping) in Africa in response to climate these were designed to explore contrasting change projections, and the likely transitions transitions of society as well as contrasting from rangeland to mixed systems in response to approaches to managing ecosystem services. increasing population densities to 2050. As might ILRI researchers have used these MEA scenarios be expected, there is some contraction of the in assessing the future of the livestock sector in cropping zone at both its northern and southern developing countries. borders, although there also appears to be an expansion of the areas where cropping may be The interactions of the many components of mixed possible in a few parts of East Africa, particularly in crop-and-livestock tropical smallholding farming the highlands (mostly as a result of a relaxation of systems are complex and need to be assessed the cold temperature constraint). at the level of the system. Without a systems- orientated assessment of household vulnerability, These results indicate that parts of eastern and for example, it is very difficult to target adaptation southern Africa are likely to see considerable work effectively. But notwithstanding a large shifts in cropping and livestock activities. Indeed, assortment of modeling tools to assess climate transitions are already occurring: in marginal change impacts on systems and households, areas of southern Africa, for example, farmers are work to assess the impacts of climate change on already finding growing crops too risky. There, agricultural systems remains a void. reductions in the length of growing periods combined with more variable rainfall patterns are Responding to climate change forcing food producers to switch from mixed crop- impacts on livestock systems and-livestock production on small plots of land to Stabilizing climate temperature increases to herding livestock. no more than 2 degrees centigrade above pre- industrial levels will necessitate implementing These land-use changes in turn change animal stringent climate policies and cutting our current diets as well as the ability of smallholders to feed greenhouse gas emissions substantially. Livestock their livestock in the dry season, when fodder is researchers at ILRI and elsewhere are working to scarce. These two changes alone greatly affect help livestock keepers adapt to climate change levels of animal productivity and mortality. A while mitigating their contributions to it. broad-brush vulnerability assessment made by ILRI scientists in 2006 identified the agricultural Livestock-based strategies to adapt to systems in Africa most at risk from climate change; climate change in developing countries these include the rangeland arid/semi-arid and Adaptation options to climate change include the mixed rain-fed arid/semi-arid systems found across following. vast parts of West, East and southern Africa. More l Micro-level adaptations: (1) diversify livestock- integrative work is needed to see how the systems based production systems, (2) change the themselves will probably change in future. mix of livestock species kept to cope with drier, wetter or hotter climates, (3) intensify Because changes in people’s vulnerability depend production and create system efficiencies by on a host of factors other than climate change, this refining the integration of crop and livestock kind of work will have to be based on scenario production. analysis. Scenarios developed for the Millennium l Risk-related adaptations: (1) implement Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) are an example; index-based livestock insurance schemes and INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE CHAPTER TWO19 smallholder and pastoral credit schemes, (5) convert cropland to grassland, (6) reduce (2) diversify means to generate incomes. grazing intensity and biomass burning, (7) l Institutional adaptations: (1) improve (local) reduce soil erosion and restore degraded livestock markets and market access by the lands, (8) change the mix of plant species in poor, (2) promote and remove barriers to inter- grasslands, (9) reconvert wetter grasslands back regional trade in livestock products. to their original woodland or forest state (while l Technological adaptations: (1) develop new balancing gains in woodland services against livestock feeds or feeding strategies, (2) develop the loss of grassland services). new diagnostics or vaccines, (3) enhance water l Reduce methane emissions: (1) improve and soil management. livestock and manure management to reduce l Behaviourial adaptations: (1) collaborate in methane emissions, (2) reduce livestock learning processes that support the adoption of numbers in some pastoral systems while improved ways of producing livestock under a compensating pastoralists for destocking, changing climate. (3) develop incentive systems, institutional links, policy reforms and monitoring techniques Livestock-based strategies to mitigate for payments for carbon sequestration in climate change in developing countries rangelands, (4) develop appropriate verification The increasing demand for livestock products protocols, (5) build on traditional pastoral is likely to be met partly by increasing the institutions and knowledge while providing productivity of each animal and partly by food security benefits. increasing the numbers of livestock raised. A l Improve feeding: improve ruminant feeding recent ILRI study estimates that methane emissions strategies to increase the efficiency with from domesticated ruminants in sub-Saharan which animals convert their feed to milk and Africa in some systems will increase by 40 per meat, which reduces the amounts of methane cent to 2030, largely as a result of increases in generated in their rumination processes. livestock numbers. The following are among the technologies that hold promise for their mitigation Closing the livestock-poverty-climate potential over the medium term. knowledge gaps Livestock and livestock systems worldwide are l Store carbon: (1) improve management of crop substantial users of natural resources and they and grazing lands to increase the storage of contribute significantly to global warming. At the carbon in soils, (2) sequester carbon in pastoral same time, they make central contributions to lands, particularly in Africa where most the livelihoods of at least a billion poor people in protected areas are located in less productive developing countries. lands, (2) better manage existing protected areas to improve their carbon sequestration, There is still a great deal about the interactions (3) slow the conversion of rangeland into of climate change and small-scale livestock cropland (an ILRI study points out that this enterprises that is poorly understood. And we conversion can result in a 95-per-cent loss of can expect to see many competing pressures for the above-ground carbon and a 50-per-cent land use—to produce livestock or food crops loss of below-ground carbon), (4) pay local or feed crops or biofuels, for example—placed people for maintaining currently sequestered on tropical and subtropical livestock-based carbon (particularly in the wetter savannas), agricultural systems in the future. 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 20 We need to close these gaps in our knowledge the nature and extent of the tradeoffs possible and public understanding to meet the needs of between different crop and livestock enterprises, the hundreds of millions of livestock keepers in and between on- and off-farm income sources, developing countries. First, much more clarity is in different situations. Most livestock keepers in needed concerning the environmental and other the developing world are projected to experience benefits of livestock keeping, the negative impacts much more variable weather in future. This they can have on greenhouse-gas emissions increase in climate variability is likely not only and the environment, and the effects of climate to reduce the amount of food that is available in change on livestock systems. The regional and the world but also to increase the price of many local variations in public ‘goods’ and ‘bads’ foods, putting them beyond the reach of the poor. associated with livestock need to be understood before we can appropriately target technologies To better understand livestock-poverty-climate and policies supporting adaptation and mitigation links and to assess the viability of different options. Much of the research done to date on smallholder livelihoods as the climate changes, the impacts of climate change on agriculture and we need better impact assessment frameworks. vice versa is continental or regional in scope. We need these to evaluate adaptation and We shall need much sharper instruments— mitigation options at regional and local scales. reliable information generated at much higher We need them to produce reliable and useful resolutions—if we wish our targeting to meet the assessments of the effects on households of needs of the world’s most vulnerable people. implementing these alternative options. And we need them to help people make the best choices Second, while a great deal is known about how possible when facing hard trade offs between livestock keepers cope with climate variability, their nutritional, economic and environmental much more information is needed concerning security. INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE BOX TWO 21 Mapping vulnerability to climate change Maize Farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa Hotspots in Africa and Latin America A recent study carried out by ILRI in Sub-Saharan In 2003, scientists from ILRI and its partners in the Africa used several climate models to examine Consultative Group on International Agricultural four different scenarios for the region toward Research (CGIAR) took outputs from leading 2050. The most vulnerable areas were found climate simulation models and data from various to be the West African Sahel; the lowlands sources to simulate the growth, development, of eastern Africa (rangelands, great lakes and and yield of maize crops over sub-Saharan Africa, coastal areas); and the drier zones of southern Central America, and South America. The results Africa. Researchers next characterized the showed an aggregate yield decline by 2055 for vulnerability of those and other areas in terms smallholder rain-fed maize production of 10 per of various biophysical and social factors, such cent, representing an annual economic loss on as soil degradation, market access and HIV the order of USD2 billion. Even more critical for prevalence, and then integrated the results with poverty, this figure masks enormous regional and those for climate change. The combined results local variation in smallholder farming systems, indicate which agricultural systems, by country, particularly in the many settings where maize constitute ‘hotspots’ of vulnerability. Published stover is fed to livestock in the dry season. Find in 2006, these results have already been used the whole article at: http://bit.ly/2ZZgpr in several influential studies, including the UK Government’s Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. Find the ILRI study, Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa, at: http://bit.ly/1PZ4zF CHAPTER THREE23 Reducing greenhouse gas emissions of livestock systems While livestock production levels in developed As one would expect with such great differences countries are holding steady, livestock production in livestock production systems in different systems in developing countries, particularly regions of the world, different systems in in the emerging economies, are rapidly different regions emit very different amounts changing to meet a rapidly growing demand for and types of greenhouse gases. Overall, most livestock foods due to those countries’ growing emissions to date have come from industrialized populations, cities and incomes. Some of these countries practicing factory farming, the least fast-evolving livestock production systems are from developing-country family farms. Moreover, using ever-larger quantities of water and other two of the most significant contributors to the natural resources and emitting ever-larger greenhouse gases produced by livestock systems amounts of greenhouse gases, which are causing in the developing world are the rapidly expanding global warming. Many people are questioning industrial livestock operations in Asia and whether the increasing demand for meat and deforestation in Latin America to make room for milk in developing countries can be met within livestock grazing and feed crop production. equitably negotiated and sustainable greenhouse gas emission targets. That said, however, it is also true that the emissions per animal in poor countries tend to The (surprising) answer is ‘yes’. Research tells be much higher than those per animal in rich us that emissions from livestock systems can countries, for the reason that most livestock in be reduced significantly through technologies poor countries are maintained on poor diets and policies, along with incentives for their that reduce the efficiency by which the animals implementation. convert their feed to milk and meat. And the increasing human populations, urbanization Livestock and greenhouse gas emissions and demand for livestock foods in developing Livestock contribute up to 18% of the countries means that future increases in livestock global greenhouse gas emissions that are greenhouse gases will come from the South. ‘anthropogenic’, or generated by human activity. Livestock researchers at ILRI and elsewhere are The main greenhouse gases from livestock helping people to manage trade offs among systems include methane produced by the natural resource use, livestock emissions and belching of animals (25 per cent), carbon dioxide livestock productivity. (CO2) produced by uses of land that encourage the decomposition of organic substances (32 per Seven ways to reduce greenhouse gases cent), and nitrous oxide (N2O), commonly known emitted by livestock as ‘laughing gas’, produced by spreading manure Here are seven practical ideas for reducing the and slurry over lands (31 per cent). greenhouse gases emitted by livestock. 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 24CHAPTER THREE 1 Reduce consumption of, and demand for, our guide. Such are the complexities of modern livestock foods in developed countries food chains that beef raised on the pampas of Whereas under-consumption of livestock foods Argentina and shipped to the North American is a main problem in developing countries, Midwest might, for example, have generated over-consumption of livestock foods—including lower levels of greenhouse gases than corn-fed fatty red meat, eggs and full-fat milk and dairy beef raised, slaughtered and packaged right there products—damages the health of many people in the Midwest. living in affluent societies. The demand for cheap livestock foods in rich countries in many 2 Improve the diets of ruminants cases is met by imports of livestock products in developing countries or feed grains from the developing world, the Providing cattle, water buffaloes, sheep, goats transport and supplies of both of which can and other ruminant animals in developing lead to environmentally damaging land-use countries with better quality diets increases their practices and over-use of water and other natural feed-conversion efficiencies and thus reduces the resources, which in turn increase the levels of amount of methane generated in the production greenhouse gas emissions in those developing of a unit of meat or milk. Many small-scale countries. Reducing the relatively high levels of farmers can, for example, improve the diets consumption of livestock foods in the developed of their ruminant animals by better managing world would thus not only help improve the their grazing lands: they can rotate the pastures health of many people in rich countries but also they use, plant improved species of pasture reduce environmentally damaging livestock grasses, make strategic applications of animal production practices in both rich and poor manure, and develop ‘fodder banks’ of planted countries, leading to significant reductions in the legumes and other forages. They can make use emissions of carbon dioxide and methane gases. of more strategic combinations of available feed resources. Many crop-livestock farmers can This point raises another: to ensure that any supplement the poor grass diets of their animals negotiated emissions targets that may be with the residues of their grain crops after established are equitable as well as feasible and harvesting. (Although many cereal residues are of useful, we shall also have to institute programs relatively poor nutritional quality, research by ILRI to track and account for the greenhouse gases and the International Crops Research Institute for ‘embedded’ in the many livestock and feed the Semi-Arid Tropics shows there is considerable products traded worldwide. Such a system potential for improving the nutritional quality of would give buyers of livestock products some stover.) And some can give their ruminants feed understanding of the ‘greenness’ of the products additives that manipulate the microorganisms they are buying. Common sense can no longer be living in the rumen to quicken microbial INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE CHAPTER THREE25 fermentation. What’s needed are practical 5 Impose regulatory frameworks methods to monitor the effectiveness of mitigating for managing manure in all countries greenhouse gases using these practices as well as Regulatory frameworks could reduce nitrous policy environments to make implementing them oxide emissions from manures, particularly cost-effective. by enforcing better management of excreta in the larger livestock operations in developing 3 Help farmers in developing countries obtain countries and applications of slurry and manure and maintain higher-yielding breeds in the developed countries. Furthermore, Where resources allow and breeding services developing ways to monitor and verify reductions exist, replacing low-producing local animals of would open the door to mitigation payment the developing world with fewer and better fed schemes. animals of higher yielding breeds would reduce total emissions while maintaining or increasing 6 Apply land-use policies that livestock yields. Such shifts include keeping more forestall cultivation of new lands productive types of a given breed, such as by Some carbon lost from agricultural ecosystems crossing local cows with genetically improved in the past can be recovered. Any management dairy cow breeds to produce cross-bred cows that practice that increases the photosynthetic input of possess traits both for both hardiness and higher carbon and/or slows the return of stored carbon to milk yields. carbon dioxide via respiration, fire or erosion will increase carbon reserves, thereby sequestering 4 Better match livestock species carbon. We can thus reduce carbon dioxide to environments in all countries emissions by applying land-use policies that Switching species to find those better suited forestall the cultivation of new lands now under to particular environments and resources forest, grassland or non-agricultural vegetation. could raise animal productivity levels. In some circumstances, exchanging ruminant animals for And rangeland and silvo-pastoral livestock pigs, chickens and other monogastrics (which systems would store much greater amounts of soil possess single- rather than four-chambered carbon than they do now if we put in place land stomachs) could reduce total methane emissions, use and livestock policies and practices suited to although high amounts of grain used to feed local conditions. Such interventions could serve the monogastrics can offset the methane saved. not only to sequester more carbon but also to For this reason, alternative feeds and feeding provide smallholders farmers and herders with practices for monogastrics urgently need the payments for the services their local ecosystems attention of the research and development provide the wider community. communities. 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 26CHAPTER THREE 7 Provide incentives to adopt mitigation strategies, particularly for poor communities Finally, successful implementation of livestock mitigation strategies, particularly in poor countries with scarce resources, inadequate rural and peri-urban infrastructure, and inappropriate agricultural policies, will demand a series of smart and equitable incentive systems that encourage people to adopt mitigation strategies and practices. Success in these countries will also depend on developing new kinds of links among institutions that have not formerly worked together, on reforming livestock and agricultural policies, on inventing techniques for monitoring carbon stocks, and on developing appropriate and easy-to-use protocols for verifying greenhouse gas emissions. But the lesson ILRI researchers have learned from their pastoral research may prove to be most relevant here: mitigation activities have the greatest chance of success in poor and hungry communities when they build on traditional institutions and knowledge while building up food security. INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE BOX THREE 27 What a 5-degree world will look like in Africa At the end of September 2009, Phil Thornton, we can expect under a 5-degree-centigrade an ILRI agricultural systems analyst, made increase many more ‘failed seasons’ in the a presentation at an international climate 2090s, especially in southern Africa, the northern conference in Oxford called ‘Four Degrees Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Most of rainfed & Beyond’. The research he presented was agriculture in regions south of the Zambezi River conducted with Thornton’s long-term colleague, is likely to become unviable, and in much of East Peter Jones, of Waen Associates (UK). Africa, maize yields could fall by 26 per cent and beans by 54 per cent. Thornton and Jones have looked at the probable impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub- Prognosis Saharan Africa and what needs to be done about A 5-degree-centigrade temperature increase will this. Africa’s population will grow from 0.8 billion thus increase crop failure in much of sub-Saharan today to some 1.8 billion by 2050. Already, over Africa, which will then require massive increases 40 per cent of Africans live in urban areas, and in intensive cropping in the highlands to feed all this urbanization will only increase in future, the people living in urban areas. In more marginal greatly increasing the continent’s need for food to lands, many farmers will be forced to make feed all its urban dwellers. radical transitions in their livelihoods, turning from cropping to livestock keeping, for example, The prognosis for agriculture is mixed in Africa, or abandoning agriculture altogether. where yields per hectare have already stagnated. Climate change is critically important to Africa What needs to be done because the gross domestic product depends We need to assess the limits of adaptation to critically on levels of rainfall. Any change in climate change in Africa. rainfall is likely to bring economic change. We need to develop comprehensive tools with Given all this, the authors asked themselves if ‘it which to analyze trade offs between, for example, can all be held together’ in the future. Several economic and environmental health. studies indicate that yields of major cereals will be reduced by 10 to 30 per cent to mid-century We need to build on the adaptive capacity of and beyond, although yields will vary widely Africa’s croppers and livestock keepers, increase depending on the crop grown and the location of our investments in agricultural and livestock the farming system. development, and get the development paradigm for Africa right—one that builds on local, Regarding the impacts of a temperature increase indigenous skills, knowledge and culture. of 5 degrees centigrade on growing seasons and crop yields, southern Africa is likely to Mostly what we need to do is to avoid, at all experience 20 per cent or more losses in length costs, a 5-degree-plus world. of growing periods. Thornton also reported that Appendices 30APPENDICES Selected references Africa Progress Panel, African Development Bank, United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, United Nations Environment Report (2009). Climate Change: A Call to Action for African Leaders. Policy brief, Africa Progress Panel, Geneva, Switzerland, June 2009, 14 pp. DB Climate Change Advisors (2009). Investing in Agriculture: Far-Reaching Challenge, Significant Opportunity: An Asset Management Perspective. Deutsche Bank Group, 81 pp. Dinar, A, R Hassan, R Mendelsohn, J Benhin (2008). Climate Change and Agriculture in Africa. Earthscan, London, UK, and Sterling, Virginia, 189 pp. Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009). Shaping Climate-Resilient Development: A framework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility, European Commission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockefeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank, Swiss Re. CGIAR (2009). Climate change, agriculture and food security. Report for COP15. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Washington, DC. CGIAR (2007). Global Climate Change: Can Agriculture Cope? Briefing dossier, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Washington, DC. Doherty, RM, S Sitch, B Smith, S Lewis, P Thornton (2009). Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry, biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa. Global Change Biology, in press. FAO (2009). Livestock in a Changing Landscape. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, in press. FAO (2009). Food Security and Agricultural Mitigation. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, 79 pp. FAO (2009). Proceedings of the Symposium on Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Animal Production: A Policy Agenda, Asuncion, Paraguay, 6–7 May 2009, 49 pp. FAO (2009). The State of Food Insecurity in the World: Economic Crises—Impacts and Lessons Learned. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, 56 pp. FAO (2009). How to Feed the World in 2050. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, 35 pp. FAO (2006). Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, 390 pp. Garnett, Tara (2009). Livestock-related greenhouse gas emissions: impacts and options for policymakers. Environmental Science and Policy 12: 491–503. Heinberg, Richard, M Bomford (2009). The Food and Farming Transition: Towards a Post-Carbon World. Post Carbon Institute, Sebastopol, California, USA, 39 pp. Herrero, M, PK Thornton, P Gerber, R Reid (2009). Livestock, livelihoods and the environment: Understanding the trade-offs. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 1:111–120. Herrero, M, PK Thornton (2009). Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from livestock systems. Focus 16: Agriculture and Climate Change: An Agenda for Negotiation in Copenhagen, Brief 6. Herrero, M, PK Thornton, RL Kruska, RS Reid (2008). System dynamics and the spatial distribution of methane emissions from African domestic ruminants to 2030. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 126, 122–137. INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE APPENDICES31 IFPRI (2009). Millions Fed: Proven Successes in Agricultural Development. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. IFPRI (2008). Determinants and Implications of the Growing Scale of Livestock Farms in Four Fast-Growing Developing Countries. Research Report 157. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 131 pp. ILRI (2009). Value of Production. Report to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation-ILRI Project on Livestock Knowledge Generation. International Livestock Research Institute. ILRI (2008). Implications of climate change on rangeland productivity in Kenya. CLIP policy brief, Climate Land Interaction Project-East Africa, International Livestock Research Institute and partners, Nairobi, Kenya, 4 pp. Jones, PJ, PK Thornton (2009). Croppers to livestock keepers: Livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change, Environmental Science and Policy 12, 427–437. Kristjanson, P, R Reid, N Dickson, W Clark, D Romney, R Puskur, S MacMillan, D Grace (2009). Linking international agricultural research knowledge with action for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 106 (13): 5046–5052. Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well Being, 5 volumes. Island Press, USA. Moore, N, G Alagarswamy, B Pijanowski, PK Thonrton, B Lofgren, J Olson, J Andresen, P Yanda, J Qi, D Campbell (2009). Food production risks associated with land use change and climate change in East Africa. Abstract for ‘Climate Change—Global Risks, Challenges and Decision’. International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, Copenhagen, 10–12 March 2009. Pew Commission on Industrial Farm Animal Production (2008). Putting Meat on the Table: Industrial Farm Animal Production in America. Pew Charitable Trusts. Pitesky, M, K Stackhouse, F Mitloehner (2009). Clearing the air: Livestock’s contribution to climate change. Advances in Agronomy, in press. Pollan, Michael (2006). The Omnivore’s Dilemma. Bloomsbury Publishing, London, New York and Berlin, 451 pp. Reid, RS, PK Thornton, GJ McCrabb, RL Kruska, F Atieno, PG Jones (2004). Is it possible to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in pastoral ecosystems of the tropics? Environment, Development and Sustainability 6: 91–109. Scherr, S, S Sthapit (2009). Mitigating Climate Change through Food and Land Use. Worldwatch Report, Worldwatch Institute, USA, 50 pp. Thornton, PK, PG Jones, A Gopal, J Andresen, M Herrero (2009). Adapting to climate change: agricultural system and household impacts in East Africa, in press. Thornton, PK, PG Jones, G. Alagarswamy, J Andersen (2009). Spatial variation of crop yield responses to climate change in East Africa, Global Environment Change 19, 54–65. Thornton, PK, J van de Steeg, A Notenbaert, M Herrero (2009). The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: A review of what we know and what we need to know, Agricultural Systems 101: 113–127. Thornton, PK (2009). Visualizing vulnerability and impacts of climate change, IDRC Rural Poverty and Environment Working Paper 23, March 2009. Thornton, PK, M Herrero (2009). The inter-linkages between rapid growth in livestock production, climate change, and the impacts on water resources, land use, and deforestation. Background paper for the World Development Report 2010: Development in a Changing Climate, 82 pp. 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 32APPENDICES Thornton, PK, P Gerber (2008). Climate change: will it constrain growth of the livestock sector? A background paper for the SOFA 2009, 19 December 2008. Thornton, PK, J van de Steeg, A Notenbaert, M Herrero (2008). The livestock-climate-poverty nexus: A discussion paper on ILRI research in relation to climate change. Discussion paper No 11, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya, pp 76. Thornton, PK, PG Jones, T Owiyo, RL Kruska, M Herrero, S Bhadwal, P Kristjanson, A Notenbaert, N Bekele, A Omolo (2008). Climate change and poverty in Africa: Mapping hotspots of vulnerability, African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2 (1) 22–44. Thornton, PK, PG Jones, TM Owiyo, RL Kruska, M Herrero, P Kristjanson, A Notenbaert, N Bekele, A Omolo (2006). Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa. Report to the Department for International Development, 200 pp. UNEP (2009). The Environmental Food Crisis: Environment’s Role in Averting Future Food Crises. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. UNEP (2008). Global Environment Outlook: Environment for Development (GEO-4), United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, 576 pp. USDA ERS (2009). Food Security Assessment, 2008–09. Outlook Report, United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 58 pp. World Bank (2009). Minding the Stock: Bringing Public Policy to Bear on Livestock Sector Development. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank (2009). World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank (2008). World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography. World Bank, Washington, DC, 383 pp. World Bank (2007). World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development. World Bank, Washington, DC, 365 pp. CGIAR rural climate change exchange blog ILRI (2009). Visualizing climate change: Not ready for prime time?, CGIAR Rural Climate Change Blog, October 2009. ILRI news releases ILRI (2009). New Study Warns That Climate Change Could Create Agricultural Winners and Losers in East Africa. News release, 3 November 2009. ILRI (2009). Climate Change Models Pinpoint up to One Million Square Kilometers of African Farmland Where Staple Crop Farmers Face Ruin. News release, 3 June. ILRI and CIAT (2003). Scenario Projects 10 Percent Fall in Developing Country Maize Production, News Release. INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE APPENDICES 33 ILRI website top stories ILRI (2009). The perfect storm. Website top story. ILRI (2009). What a 5-degree world would look like in Africa. Website top story. ILRI (2009). Making research matter: 7 ways to link knowledge to action. Website top story. ILRI (2008). When worlds collide: Those who eat too much, and those who eat too little. Website top story. ILRI (2008). Renewing African agriculture. Website top story. ILRI (2008). The climate-poverty-livestock interface: A new doorway for sustainable poverty reduction. Website top story. ILRI (2008). Songs of praise. Website top story. ILRI (2007). Another inconvenient truth. Website top story. ILRI briefs ILRI (2009). The future of cows. ILRI (2007). Livestock-based adaptations to the impacts of climate change in Africa. ILRI slide presentations Thornton, PK and P Jones (2009). Four degrees and beyond: What might this mean for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa? Slide presentation, International Climate Conference, ‘Four Degrees & Beyond’, Oxford, UK, 28–30 September 2009. Thornton, PK, M Said, D Grace, S Kemp (2009). What should we be working on in relation to climate change, adaptation, and mitigation? Slide presentation for the Annual Program Meeting of the International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya, 24 March 2009. Herrero, M, P Gerber, A van de Zijpp, P Lecomte, A Notenbaert, J van de Steeg, PK Thornton (2008). Livestock, livelihoods and the environment: Understanding the trade-offs. Slide presentation, World Congress of Animal Production, Capetown, South Africa, December 2008. Thornton, PK (2007). Climate change, vulnerability and poverty in Africa: Impacts on livestock and livelihoods. Slide presentation for the 8th Interagency Donor Meeting, June 2007. ILRI posters Herrero, M, PK Thornton, J ven de Steeg, A Notenbaert, A Mude, J Olson (2009). The role of multi-scale modeling in assessing livelihood adaptation strategies to climate change. International Livestock Research Institute. 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 34APPENDICES Financial highlights 2008 ILRI expenditure by object Depreciation Operational 4% Travel 7% ILRI funding by type of donor International & 5Regional OrganizDateiovnesl 18% Europe 43% Foundations 5% Supplies Developing Countries & Services Personnel 2% 35% 47% Collaborators & Partnerships 7% Asia Pacific Rim North America 1% 31% RESTRICTED GRANTS Program restricted Co Aid for Africa Canada ILRI’s revenue in 2008 amounted to USD43.8 million, European Community/International Fund for Agricultural Development an increase of 14% over revenue in 2007, against India expenditures of USD42.31 million, an increase of 5% Ireland over expenditures in 2007. Unrestricted grant revenue Italy made up 31% of ILRI’s total revenue in 2008. The share of restricted revenue (including funds restricted Norway to Challenge Programs) has increased to 59% of total Portugal revenue this year and the share of centre income is Switzerland stable at 10%. Programmatic expenditures represented United States Agency for International Development (USAID) 72% of all expenses in 2008. The institute’s net assets amounted to USD24.97 million as of 31 December World Bank 2008, with liquidity and long-term stability indicators Project restricted above CGIAR recommended ranges. ILRI’s mandate is Australian Centre for International Agricultural broad, fast-evolving and long-term in nature while the Research (ACIAR) fund-raising context is becoming increasingly more African Development Bank (ADB) complex. Financial indicators show that the institute’s financial health continues to be sound. For the full African Union/Interafrican Bureau for Animal Resources (AU/IBAR) financial report go to www.ilri.org African Wildlife Foundation Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa UNRESTRICTED GRANTS Armenia Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research Australia Korea in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA) Belgium Netherlands Austria Canada Norway Belgium China Portugal Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Denmark South Africa Bioversity International Finland Sweden Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) France Switzerland China Germany United Kingdom Comart Foundation (EMF) India United States of America Common Fund for Commodities Ireland World Bank Consultative Group on International Agricultural Italy Research (CGIAR) INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE APPENDICES35 Cornell University ILRI funding trend Department for International Development (DFID), UK 45.0 Empresa Brasileiria de Pesquisa Agropecuaria (EMBRAPA), Brazil 40.0 Total European Development Fund (EDF) 35.0 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 30.0 French Agricultural Research Centre for International 25.0 Restricted Development (CIRAD) 20.0 (project) funding Gatsby Foundation 15.0 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) Unrestricted 10.0 funding Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) Global Environment Facility (GEF) 5.0 Centre income Global Research and Development (GRD) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Global Spatial Data Infrastructure Association (GSDI) Year Global Crop Diversity Trust Google.org Rockefeller Foundation Heifer International Sasakawa Global 2000 Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) Sir Ratan Tata Trust Instituto Nacional de Investigacion y Tecnologia Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA) Strengthening Information Sector Training Enterprise (SITE) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Sweden International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation International Crops Research Institute for the Semi- Swiss College of Agriculture Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) Switzerland International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Syngenta Foundation International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) Terra Nuova (Italy) International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Texas A&M University International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) United States Agency for International Development (USAID) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) United States Department of Agriculture International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) United States National Science Foundation International Water Management Institute (IWMI) University of Edinburgh Japan University of Florida Kenya University of Glasgow Kenya Agricultural Research Institute University of Guelph Korea University of Nairobi Land O’Lakes Inc University of Syracuse Michigan State University Vétérinaires Sans Frontières National Agricultural Innovation Project (India) W. Kellogg Foundation National Veterinary Institute (SVA), Sweden Wellcome Trust Natural Resource International Limited (UK) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) Netherlands Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research (WOTRO) World Bank OPEC Fund for International Development (OFID) World Conservation Union (IUCN) Oromiya Agricultural Development Bureau (OADB), Ethiopia Challenge Program International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Purdue University Challenge Program on Water and Food 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT Millions USD 36APPENDICES Board of trustees 2008 Dr Uwe Werblow (Chair) Germany Ms Emmy B Simmons USA Raiherwiesenstrasse 21 2475 Virginia Ave NW, Apt 222 D 76227 Karlsruhe, Germany Washington DC 20037, USA u.werblow@t-online.de emmybsimmons@aol.com H.E. Dr Aberra Deressa Ethiopia Dr Carlos Seré (ex officio) Uruguay State Minister Director General Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development International Livestock Research Institute Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Nairobi, Kenya vmoasc@ethionet.et c.sere@cgiar.org Dr Romano Kiome Kenya Prof Samir K Barua India Permanent Secretary Director Kenya Ministry of Agriculture Indian Institute of Management Nairobi, Kenya Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, India rmkiome@kilimo.go.ke skbarua@iimahd.ernet.in Dr Fee Chon Chong-Low Malaysia Prof Nieves Confesor Philippines Regional Coordinator for Biosafety Center for Development Management United Nations Environment Programme Asian Institute of Management, Manila, Philippines Regional Office for Asia/Pacific nconfesor@aim.edu.ph Bangkok, Thailand feechon.low@unep.ch Dr James Dargie UK Brunnstubengasse 43 2102 Bisamberg, Austria j.dargie@aon.at Prof Knut Hove Norway Rektor Norwegian University of Life Sciences N-1432 Aas, Norway knut.hove@umb.no Dr Modibo Tiémoko Traoré Mali Assistant Director-General Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations modibo.traore@fao.org INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE APPENDICES37 Selected staff 2008 Unless otherwise stated, staff are located in Nairobi, Kenya, or Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. For a full and updated list of ILRI’s 700-plus staff members worldwide, visit ILRI’s website: www.ilri.org Directorate Carlos Seré, Uruguay director general Vivian Awuor, Kenya executive assistant to the director general Gabrielle Persley, Australia senior advisor to the director general John McDermott, Canada deputy director general-research Rose Ndegwa, Kenya intellectual property officer Bruce Scott, Canada director of partnerships and communications Iain Wright, UK regional representative in Asia Siboniso Moyo, Zimbabwe regional representative in southern Africa Abdou Fall, Senegal project coordinator in West Africa Xianglin Li, China China liaison scientist based in China Biotechnology Theme Ed Rege, Kenya animal geneticist / theme director Rosalynn Murithi, Kenya program management officer Etienne de Villiers, South Africa head of bioinformatics unit Olivier Hanotte, Belgium molecular biologist§ Alexander McClintock, Australia animal breeder§ Francis McOdimba, Kenya laboratory manager§ James Ombura, Kenya farm manager Phil Toye, Australia molecular parasitologist Market Opportunities Theme Steve Staal, USA agricultural economist / theme director Hellen Rugoiyo, Kenya program management officer Mohammad Jabbar, Bangladesh agricultural economist Jeffrey Mariner, USA veterinary epidemiologist Isabelle Baltenweck, France agricultural economist Lucy Lapar, Philippines agricultural economist based in Vietnam People, Livestock and the Environment Theme Shirley Tarawali, UK agronomist / theme director Askale Worku, Ethiopia program management officer Augustine Ayantunde, Nigeria ruminant nutritionist based in Mali Michael Blümmel, Germany ruminant nutritionist based in India 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 38APPENDICES Jean Hanson, UK plant geneticist Iheanacho Okike, Nigeria agricultural economist / country program manager Tom Randolph, USA agricultural economist Targeting & Innovations Theme Ade Freeman, Sierra Leone applied economist / theme director Albert Waudo, Kenya program management officer Joseph Karugia, Kenya coordinator of the project ‘Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support Systems’ (Re-SAKSS)* Mario Herrero, Costa Rica animal scientist and systems analyst Philip Thornton, UK agricultural systems analyst based in the UK Peter Bezkorowajnyj, UK manager of the project ‘Fodder Innovations’ based in India Woudyalew Mulatu, Ethiopia supervisor of the community-based livestock disease control project in Ethiopia’s Ghibe Valley Rose Kiggundu, Uganda economist Biosciences eastern and central Africa (BecANet) Bruno Kubata, D.R. Congo network director for Biosciences eastern and central Africa (BecA Secretariat) Biosciences eastern and central Africa (Research Platform) Segenet Kelemu, Ethiopia platform director for Biosciences eastern and central Africa (BecA Hub)* CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Program Bruno Gerard, Belgium coordinator of the CGIAR Systemwide Livestock Programme (SLP)* Improving Productivity and Market Success of Ethiopian Farmers Dirk Hoekstra, The Netherlands coordinator of the project ‘Improving the Productivity and Market Success of Ethiopian Farmers’ (IPMS) Innovation Works Patricia Kristjanson, Canada agricultural economist / coordinator Research Support Ric Coe, UK head of the Research Methods Group on joint appointment with ICRAF Lucy Gacheru, Kenya grants coordination officer Ephy Khaemba, Kenya occupational health and safety officer Leah Ndungu, Kenya research management officer Jane Poole, UK manager of the Research Methods Group (RMG) on joint appointment with ICRAF INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE APPENDICES39 Partnerships and Communications Azeb Abraham, Ethiopia librarian Veyrl Adell, Kenya public relations manager§ Ponniah Anandajayasekeram, Australia capacity strengthening manager Richard Fulss, Germany information manager Grace Kamau, Kenya librarian Susan MacMillan, USA head of public awareness Loza Mesfin, Ethiopia assistant to the director of partnerships and communications Ian Moore, UK head of information technology services on joint appointment with ICRAF Liz Ogutu, Kenya resource mobilization officer Jean Ndikumana, Burundi coordinator of the Animal Agricultural Research Network of the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (A-AARNET) Ravindra Prabhu, India coordinator of the CGIAR Regional Plan for Collective Action in Eastern and Southern Africa Finance and Administration Brigitte Laude, France director of finance and administration§ Michael Klass, Sweden interim finance & administration director* Joseph Ndirangu, Kenya treasury manager Negussie Abraham, Ethiopia chief accountant Pauline Ng’ang’a, Kenya purchasing officer Judy Ngugi, Kenya general accounts manager Jared Odhingo, Kenya budget & grants manager Hamady Tall, Mali head of administration, Ethiopia§ Jacob Quaye, Ghana interim head of administration, Ethiopia* Human Resources Veronica Waiyaki, Kenya interim human resources manager Aster Tsige, Ethiopia human resources coordinator Notes * Joined ILRI in 2008 § Left ILRI in 2008 2008–9 CORPORATE REPORT 40APPENDICES About ILRI and the CGIAR The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) The CGIAR (www.cgiar.org) is an association of works at the crossroads of livestock and poverty, public- and private-sector institutions. Its mission is to bringing high-quality science and capacity building to contribute to food security and poverty eradication in bear on poverty reduction and sustainable development. developing countries through research, partnership, capacity building and policy support. The co-sponsors ILRI works in partnerships and alliances with other of the CGIAR are the World Bank, the United organizations, national and international, in livestock Nations Development Programme, the Food and research, training and information. ILRI works in the Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and tropical and sub-tropical developing regions of Africa the International Fund for Agricultural Development. and Asia. Beginning at the end of 2008, the CGIAR began undertaking a restructuring for greater impacts. For ILRI is one of 15 centres that conduct food and updates on that change process, see: www.cgiar.org/ environmental research to help alleviate poverty and changemanagement/index.html increase food security while protecting the natural resource base. The centres are funded by government agencies, development banks, private foundations and regional and international organizations and are supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE International Livestock Research Institute www.ilri.org • PO Box 30709 • Nairobi 00100 Kenya