Importance of wheat • Globally the most important food crop • Second most important food crop in the developing world after rice • Most important protein source in North and South • Provides income to farmers in 80 developing countries, Food to 2.5 billion poor people (< 2 USD) crucial crop for “food security” • Main staple for an estimated 1.2 billion poor (< 2$ per day, “wheat- dependent”) • Provides calories (20%) and protein (20%) in Low income developing Countries Global wheat production is over 780 million metric tons Largest traded Cereal commodity $60 Billion in Trade Global area under wheat 220 Mill. ha Wheat: Nutrition facts Wheat as source of daily protein Average Wheat Yield of countries < 2 2-2.5 2.5 -3 3-4 4-6 6-8 >8 Global wheat production from 1990/1991 to 2022/2023 (in million metric tons) Rank Country Production (1000 MT) 16 Egypt 8,670 17 Ethiopia 7,500 21 Morocco 3,800 24 Algeria 2,700 29 South Africa 2,000 39 Sudan 650 47 Kenya 310 53 Zambia 200 54 Zimbabwe 180 57 Nigeria 120 61 Yemen 100 62 Tanzania 75 66 Mali 28 67 Eritrea 25 68 Uganda 25 69 Namibia 20 70 Mozambique 16 71 Rwanda 13 73 Congo, The Democratic Republic Of The 9 74 Angola 7 78 Chad 2 79 Malawi 1 Indexmundi, source USDA estimates 2023 Wheat production – two different worlds Developed countries Less developed countries Wheat Area 105 mlln ha 115 mlln ha Average yield 2.9 t/ha 3 t/ha Average farm size 40 ha - > 5000 ha 1 – 3 ha Rainfed 100 mlln ha 60 mlln ha Irrigated 5 mlln ha 55 mlln ha Max Yield 8 t/ha (UK, WW) 6.5 t/ha (Egypt, SW) Source: H-J Braun 0 100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,000 600,000,000 700,000,000 800,000,000 900,000,000 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 3 1 9 6 5 1 9 6 7 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 9 Developing countries Developed countries World Wheat Production 1961 to 2015: Global, in developing and developed countries (000 tons) Data Source: FAO, USDA. Compiled by H.-J. Braun Success stories in the Global South • 363 CIMMYT wheat varieties released in India since 1965; ~40% of the total. • Among the top 10 varieties in India, 5 are CIMMYT derived • Current focus: 10 t/ha stress- tolerant, nutritious wheat. CIMMYT-INDIA COLLABORATION IN ENHANCING WHEAT PRODUCTION Wheat production trends in Ethiopia USDA, September 12, 2023 Wheat Production in Africa-Facts Wheat grown on 10 million ha; gaining importance in several countries Yields are generally low: average productivity 2.2 t/ha; world average of 3.3 t/ha. Over the past two decades, consumption increased: Population growth; Demographic change i.e. rising economy, urbanization; and change in dietary preferences • Wheat has been regarded a NON- African crop • Africa food staples: Maize, beans, root crops, indigenous crops (Millets, Bambara beans, egusi, enset, fonio, tef etc.) • Production concentrated mainly in SA, NA, and Highlands of Ethiopia and Kenya • Mostly rainfed, New varieties (under irrigation)-expanded in Nigeria and Zambia and recently Ethopia 14 Cash crops in Africa Production volume of wheat in Africa from 2017/2018 to 2021/2022 (in 1,000 metric tons) • 25.7 million metric tons of wheat produced in Africa in 2020/2021. • Wheat production increased to 30.5 million metric tons in 2021/2022 • Africa’s production 4-4.5% of global wheat production • North Africa accounted for over 60 percent of the African wheat production. 1. Maize 2. Wheat 1. Cassava 2. Maize 3. Yams 4. Wheat Importance of Wheat in the SSA  Wheat plays a crucial role in ensuring Africa’s food/nutrition security by supplying food calorie and protein  It is consumed in different forms as bread, flat bread, pasta, cakes, cookies, crackers, pastries, noodles, porridge and many other local traditions such as grain roasted, boiled, or cracked (kinche), alone or blended with others  Wheat demand is increasing because of rising incomes, growing population, change in food preference for easy and fast food, faster women’s participation in the labor force, and wheat food aid  Now, wheat is considered as strategic food security crop by many governments in Africa BELNDED PRODUCTS Wheat Production (Africa) Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania Area (MHA) 9.97 35.9 101.62 61.64 9.91 Production (MMT) 25.23 117.8 347.92 255.02 14.93 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Area (MHA) Production (MMT) Africa produces ca. 25 million tons of wheat on 10 million hectares Source: FAOSTAT (208-2020 mean) North Africa East Africa Southern Africa Western Africa Middle Africa Area (ha) 7272687.7 2077382.0 515130.2 70515.2 12776.5 Production (mt) 19167277.3 5595314.7 1748536.8 104283.3 15441.8 0.0 5000000.0 10000000.0 15000000.0 20000000.0 25000000.0 Average wheat Area (ha)and Production (t) in Africa Area (ha) Production (mt) Regional Wheat Production • North Africa is the highest producer of wheat followed by Eastern Africa • Eastern, central and Southern Africa (ECSA) produces ca. 7.36 million tons on 2.6 million ha Ethio pia Suda n Keny a Tanza nia Zimb abwe Zamb ia Ugan da Eritre a Mada gasca r Mala wi DRC Burun di Rwan da Area ('000 ha) 1800 304 135 51.4 51.2 23.5 15.5 25 1.53 0.62 8.4 11.9 12.6 Production ('000MT) 5238 726.3 369.2 65.6 91.7 152.6 24.1 25 3.7 0.66 10.2 12.1 14 Productivity (t/ha) 2.91 2.4 2.7 1.3 1.8 6.4 1.6 1 2.4 1 1.2 0.9 1.1 2.91 2.4 2.7 1.3 1.8 6.4 1.6 1 2.4 1 1.2 0.9 1.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Wheat production in the ECSA (2018-2020 mean) Area ('000 ha) Production ('000MT) Productivity (t/ha) Wheat Production in ECSA countries 80.6 26.6 17.1 37.4 28.5 81.3 4.6 12.3 1.4 0.6 3.4 13.8 13.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Se lf s u ff ic ie n cy ( % ) Im p o rt e d ( M T) Country Wheat self sufficiency (%) Imported (grain+flour) (MT) Wheat Self –Sufficiency (%) Importance of wheat … 21 Annual wheat production by country (A), annual wheat imports by country (B), and wheat self-sufficiency by country (C) in Africa. Data refer to averages over two years, 2018–2019. Source: FAOSTAT. 2023- Zimbabwe declared self sufficiency and Ethiopia reaching self sufficiency Wheat in Africa Importance of wheat… Aggregate Consumption (MMT/year) Per capita food Consumption (kg/year) Africa 70.7 49.5 Northern Africa 45.2 143.8 Sub Saharan Africa 25.5 25.2 Average use (% of domestic supply) Food Feed Seed Losses Processing Other uses (non-food) Africa 74.9 12.2 1.6 5.6 0.2 4.8 Northern Africa 69.8 17.1 2 7.8 0 3.3 Sub Saharan Africa 83.9 3.7 0.8 1.9 0.6 7.4 Wheat Consumption Wheat aggregate consumption Importance of wheat… Northern Africa Western Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Southern Africa Wheat Import (million tons 27.6 9.0 5.8 1.8 2.3 Value (million US$) 7416.6 2276.5 1634.6 526.0 531.6 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0 6000.0 7000.0 8000.0 Africa region wheat imports (2018-2020 mean) Wheat Import (million tons Value (million US$) • Africa spends 12.4 Billion US$ to import 46.4 million tons of wheat (grain and flour) • North Africa region is the highest importer of wheat followed by western and Eastern African regions 24 • Africa imported around 54.8 million metric tons of wheat in the trade year 2020/2021, >55 million metric tons in 2021/2022, • Roughly 26.6 million metric tons of wheat imports in Sub-Saharan Africa, 29 million metric tons into North Africa • Egypt alone imported 12 million metric tons of wheat, wheat flour and wheat products- largest importer in the world • Roughly 12 Billion dollars worth of wheat imported into Africa • Major imports from Russia , Ukraine Import volume of wheat in Africa from 2017/2018 to 2021/2022 (in 1,000 metric tons) Value of wheat and meslin imports into Africa in 2020 (in million U.S. dollars) www.statista.com  Shiferaw et al. (2013) analyzed the suitability and economic profitability of wheat in selected African countries  The biophysical suitability analysis for rainfed and irrigated wheat production  The economic profitability of growing wheat in 12 countries in SSA including Burundi, DRC, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda Opportunities of Wheat Production 26 Wheat growing regions in Africa 27 Current wheat cultivated area (left) and wheat area suitability (right) across Africa. Wheat suitability was determined with EcoCrop. Source: Yu et al. (2020) and Negassa et al. (2012). 28 Climatic zones for wheat production in AfricaWheat suitability map for Africa Negassa et al. 2013 Only small portion of the 20 million ha (FAO estimates) classified as agro-climatically suitable for wheat production is currently sown to wheat Opportunities of wheat production… Highlands, cool, wet (rainfed): Burundi, DRC, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda Mid altitude, irrigated, cool, dry (winter season): Madagascar Mid altitude, warm, humid (rainy season): "Tropical wheat" environment: Madagascar Low altitude, very hot and dry (irrigated): "Tropical wheat" environment: Sudan Four environments (Tanner and Van Ginkel); though the bulk of wheat comes from the rainfed highlands, at altitudes >1500 m.a.s.l. Wheat Growing Environments in ECSA Irrigated systems predominate during the dry winter season in the lowlands of Southern Africa (including Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar, and Mozambique) Western Africa (including Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali), and the lowlands of Sudan. Egypt, along the Nile River Wheat Production Systems in the ECSA countries Country Production System Type I Type II Madagascar Rainfed + Hoe Irrigated + Mechanized Ethiopia Rainfed + Oxen Rainfed + Mechanized Kenya Rainfed + Mechanized Sudan Irrigated + Mechanized Tanzania Rainfed + Mechanized Rainfed + Hoe Uganda Rainfed + Hoe Zimbabwe Irrigated + Mechanized Zambia Irrigated + Mechanized Rainfed + hoeSource: Adapted from Tanner et al., 1988. Challenges to global wheat production • 1.7% increase in global production annually; i.e. average yield to rise from 3 t/ha to 5 t/ha by 2050 (annual genetic gains 0.7-1%) • Climate change scenarios: unpredictable warmer temperatures and drought stresses • Depleting ground water for irrigation • Energy and fertilizer costs • Competition with other crops • Emerging diseases and pests and their new biotypes- Rusts, Septoria, Fusarium, Blast • Declining agricultural research capacity- Infrastructure, NARS Key issues for wheat production in ECSA • High cost of production -Cheaper to import • Developing suitable technologies and varieties adapted to various agro- ecologies (High yield, disease resistance, climate resilient) • Access to affordable inputs • Effective and sustainable wheat seed systems • Strengthen wheat extension systems (varietal replacement rate 7-10 years) • Increasing productivity among small holders (package of practices for varieties, Improved agronomy) • Investing in small holder Mechanization engaging gender and youth • Making wheat more competitive and profitable for domestic farmers (subsidies, min. support price, compensation, finance) • Making wheat value chains work more effectively (supporting input suppliers, farmers/producers, assemblers, wholesalers, processors, retailers, commission agents and cooperatives) • Fostering regional collaboration and cooperation (COMESA, ECOWAS, and CERNADR) • Putting in place appropriate policies that foster wheat industry (more productive and competitive in West, Central, North-East, East, and parts of Southern Africa) Stem rust races : recent update Spread of aggressive Puccinia striiformis (yellow rust) races PstS10 PstS11 PstS13 PstS14 PstS1/S2 PstS16 • New emerging genetic groups of yellow rust • Faster transcontinental spread • Localized severe epidemics Source: Updated from Ali et al. (2014) PLoSPathog10(1): e1003903. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1003903 199 5 199 7 Yr27 breakdown (2002-2004) Kauz, Atilla, Opata, Nacozari, Bucbuc and Crow (1985-97) Combating wheat blast disease How are we making Progress?? Trial/Nursery Abbreviation Entries (No.) Target Environment Grain Yield Trials (Replicated): Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial ESWYT 50 ME1, ME2, ME5 White Semi Arid Wheat Yield Trial SAWYT 50 ME4 White High Rainfall Wheat Yield Trial HRWYT 50 ME2, ME4 Red Heat Tolerance Wheat Yield Trial High Zinc Yield Trial High Zinc Yield Trial-Early Maturity HTWYT HZYT HZYT-EM 50 50 50 ME1, ME4, ME5 ME1 ME5 White White White Screening nurseries: Int. Bread Wheat Screening Nursery IBWSN 250-300 ME1, ME2, ME5 White Semi Arid Wheat Screening Nursery SAWSN 150-200 ME4 White High Rainfall Wheat Screening Nursery High Zinc Advanced Nursery HRWSN HZAN 150-200 100-150 ME2, ME4 ME1 Red White Disease based nurseries: International Septoria Observation Nursery ISEPTON 100-150 ME2, ME4 White/Red Leaf Blight Resistance Screening Nursery LBRSN 100-150 ME4, ME5 White/Red Stem Rust Resistance Screening Nursery SRRSN 100-150 All MEs White/Red Fusarium Head Blight Screening Nursery FHBSN 50-100 ME2, ME4 White/Red International Wheat Improvement Network (IWIN) sharing and phenotyping of new diverse elite lines through trials and nurseries 50-170 sets of each trials/nurseries distributed annually worldwide to over 70 countries 2015-2021: 245 IWIN derived varieties released in 26 countries International Wheat Improvement Network Locations receiving CIMMYT nurseries Source: K. Sonders CIMMYT 41 CIMMYT’s wheat program contribution to Africa Number of bread wheat entries sent to Africa by CIMMYT in the past 15 years (2008-2022) Country No. of Bread wheat entries 1. Algeria 24,959 2. Angola 2,724 3. Botswana 864 4. Burkina Faso 50 5. Burundi 4,057 6. Cameroon 9,627 7. Congo 380 8. Democratic Republic of Congo 4,613 9. Egypt 106,493 10. Eritrea 8,815 11. Ethiopia 58,586 12. Gambia 511 13. Ghana 262 14. Kenya 14,039 15. Lesotho 440 16. Libya 5,745 17. Madagascar 2,979 18. Malawi 1,724 Country No. of Bread wheat entries 19. Mali 438 20. Mauritius 50 21. Morocco 70,850 22. Mozambique 3,864 23. Namibia 456 24. Niger 800 25. Nigeria 11,450 26. Rwanda 11,019 27. Senegal 364 28. Somalia 633 29. South Africa 42,895 30. Sudan 4,865 31. Tunisia 20,746 32. Uganda 10,945 33. United Republic of Tanzania 6,030 34. Zambia 18,255 35. Zimbabwe 32,058 Total 482,586 42 Number of Bread wheat varieties released by CIMMYT in Africa 1994-2023 Country Number of Bread wheat varieties 1. Algeria 30 2. Burundi 7 3. Egypt 27 4. Eritrea 14 5. Ethiopia 76 6. Kenya 30 7. Morocco 50 8. Nigeria 10 9. Rwanda 16 10. South Africa 30 11. Sudan 14 12. Tunisia 2 13. Uganda 5 14. United Republic of Tanzania 11 15. Zambia 29 16. Zimbabwe 31 Total 382 CIMMYT’s Role in wheat self sufficiency in ECSA Eg: Ethiopia (1987)  Germplasm supply and joint evaluation and release  Develop NARs capacity  Physical capacity  HR development (local and abroad), Hands-on training  Projects development  Technical backstopping, mentoring, and networking  Strengthened partnership  Strengthened the wheat seed system  Strong govt. policies and investments Wheat production trends in Ethiopia Wheat Area, Production and Productivity in Ethiopia (2018/19- 2022/23) Area (ha) Seasons Year 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Seasons 1,747,939.3 1,789,372.2 1,897,405.1 1,867,047.7 1,825,441.1 Estimate Meher – Small Holder Farmers (SHF) 103,186.9 106,031.9 108,666.3 - Large Scale Farmers (LSF) 126,850.8 Irrigated 3,502.0 20,000.0 187,000.0 450,000.0 1,356,743.0 Total area (ha) 1,854,627.3 1,915,404.2 2,319,922.1 2,317,047.0 3,182,184.1 Production (MMT) Seasons Year 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Meher -SHF 4,839,716.9 5,314,435.5 5862981.6 5806518.4 - LSF 361,154.3 371,111.8 380332.1 Belg 317126.9 Irrigated 15,409.0 90,000.0 748000.0 1800000.0 Total 5,216,280.2 5,775,547.3 7,308,440.6 7,606,518.4 9,864,770.6 Yield (t/ha) Seasons Year 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 Seasons 2.76 2.97 3.09 3.1 ?? Meher –Small HF 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 - LSF 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Irrigated 4.4 4.5 3.5 3.5 Non-… CIMMYT 87% Ethio… ICARD A 3% Kenya 2% Ethiopia • 89% of samples from all provinces CIMMYT derived varieties • 55% of sampled households growing rust resistant varieties • 45% of samples varieties released in last 10 years Ethiopia: wheat Impact studies using DNA Fingerprinting Spread of Kakaba (2010 Release) APR based varieties in Ethiopia Kakaba (Picaflor) 2010 Pedigree :KIRITATI//SERI-82/RAYON-89 Currently occupies >40% area Dandaa (Danphe) 2010 Pedigree : KIRITATI//2*PBW-65/2*SERI-82 Kingbird 2015 Pedigree : TAM-200/TUI/6/PAVON-76//CAR-422/ANAHUAC- 75/5/BOBWHITE /CROW//BUCKBUCK/PAVON-76/3/YECORA-70/4/TRAP-1 Deka (Arableu #1) 2018 Pedigree Attila/3*Bacanora*2//Baviacora92/3/Kiritati/Weebil#1/4/Danphe Ethiopia Kenya, Njoro environment enables year round planting  Main season : June-October  Off-season : Jan-April 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Main season Off season Total No. of Countries Wheat accessions phenotyped during 2005-2020 for Ug99 resistance at Njoro (Kenya) and participating countries, in partnership with KALRO >610,000 accessions screened since 2005 50,000 annual capacity (2 Seasons) 20-25 countries/institutions 2570 wheat lines from India (across 10 seasons) Rapid cycling of breeding materials Mexico (Cd. Obregon-Toluca/El Batan)- Kenya International Shuttle Breeding A five-year recurrent breeding cycle Cd. Obregón 39 masl (Nov-April)- dry irrigated env. High yield (irrigated), Water-use efficiency, Heat tolerance, Leaf rust, stem rust (not Ug99) Toluca 2640 masl (May- Oct) cold humid highland Yellow rust Septoria tritici Fusarium Zero tillage El Batán 2249 masl Leaf rust, Fusarium Tanspot Njoro, Kenya 2185 masl Stem rust (Ug99 group) Yellow rust • Since 2008: Mexico-Kenya Shuttle breeding • 2000 F3/F4 populations shuttled each year • High yielding, resistant lines distributed worldwide since 2011 P ro d u c ti v it y ( T o n s /H a ) 0 1 2 3 4 1 9 2 1 1 9 2 9 1 9 3 7 1 9 4 5 1 9 5 3 1 9 6 1 1 9 6 9 1 9 7 7 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 3 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 9 Year Wheat production started in 1906 First 60 years-average productivity remained < 1 ton/ha Last 10 years productivity > 2 tons/ha 15 varieties released in the last decade resistant to Ug99 Production is around 400,000t and demand close to 1MM Tons Productivity increased from 2.5 to 3.1 t/ha (2009-2015) Wheat production in Kenya-Notable Trends Released Varieties-Kenya Source of Line Commercial Name Pedigree Selection history Release and Ug99 resistance Stem rust genes Yield potential % Area CIMMYT- Introduction Kenya Robin BABAX/LR42//BABAX*2/ 3/TUKURU CGSS01B00050T-099Y- 099M-099M-099Y-099M- 20Y-0B 2009 Broke down in 2014 Sr2, SrTmp, Sr58 8.1 t/ha 30 CIMMYT- Introduction Kenya Eagle 10 EMB 16/CBRD//CBRD CMSS98M00761T-040Y- 0100M-040Y-040M-0RES- 22PZ-3Y-2M-2M-0Y 2009 -Resistant Sr2,Sr24, SrCbrd 6.5 t/ha 8 CIMMYT- Introduction Kenya Wren THELIN # 2/TUKURU CGSS02Y00118S-099M- 099Y-099M-16Y-0B 2010- Broke down in 2014 Sr2, SrTmp 8.0 t/ha 5 CIMMYT- Introduction Kenya Tai ND643/2*WBLL1 CGSS02B00105T-099B- 099Y-099M-099Y-099M- 2RGY-0B 2010- Resistant Sr2, SrND643, Sr58 6.5 t/ha 5 CIMMYT- Introduction Kenya Sunbird ND643/2*WBLL1 gets yr CGSS02B00116T-099B- 099Y-099M-099Y-099M- 15RGY-0B 2010-Resistant gets Yr Sr2, SrND643, Sr58 6.5 t/ha 1 CIMMYT- Introduction Kenya Korongo BABAX/LR42//BABAX*2/ 4/SNI/TRAP#1/3/KAUZ*2 /TRAP//KAUZ CMSS98M00761T-040Y- 0100M-040Y-040M-0RES- 22PZ-3Y-2M-2M-0Y 2012- Moderately suseptible still popular with farmers Sr2, SrTmp, Sr57 8.5 t/ha 15 CIMMYT- Introduction Kingbird TAM200/TUI/6/PVN//CA R422/ANA/5/BOW/CRO W//BUC/PVN/3/YR/4/TR AP#1 CMSS99M00216S-040M- 030Y-030M-16Y-2M-0Y 2012- Resistant white grained Sr2, Sr57 6.0 t/ha 10 CIMMYT- Introduction Kenya Hawk10 URES/JUN//KAUZ/3/BAB AX/4/TILHI CMSA00Y00868T-040M- 0P0Y-040M-010TSB- 010ZLB-9ZTY-0M 2012-moderately resistant Sr2, SrTmp 8.0 t/ha 1 CIMMYT- parent Njoro BWII TNMU CM81812-12Y-06AL-4Y- 5M-0Y-3AL-0Y-4AL-0AL- 0M 2002-moderately susceptible unknown+APR 7.0 t/ha 15 CIMMYT- parent Kenya Kwale KVZ/TI/3/MAYA//BB/INI A CM33089-W-3M-7Y-1M- 0Y-1KE-0KE 1987-moderately susceptible unknown+APR 7.0 t/ha 10 Varieties released in Kenya (2008-2016) Capacity building of National Programs “ Enhancing Wheat Disease Early Warning Systems, Germplasm Evaluation, Selection, and Tools for Improving Wheat Breeding Pipelines"which will be held from Oct. 1st -13th, 2023, at KALRO, Njoro, Kenya. CIMMYT’s Shuttle-Breeding Cd. Obregón 39 masl High yield (irrigated), Water-use efficiency, Heat tolerance, Leaf rust, stem rust (not Ug99) Toluca 2640 masl Yellow rust Septoria tritici Fusarium El Batán 2249 masl Leaf rust, Fusarium Njoro, Kenya 2185 masl Stem rust (Ug99 group) Yellow rust Obregon-Toluca Shuttle Breeding & Mexico (Obregon-Toluca)- Kenya Shuttle Breeding Breeding cycle length= 5 years Elite lines to partners= 7 years  Implemented by Dr. N.E. Borlaug in 1940s by using diverse field sites in Mexico  Two crop seasons/year  Distinct temperatures, daylengths, latitudes, altitudes & rainfall patterns, photo period insensitive, broad adaptation  Distinct disease pressures  Yield phenotyping in selection environments (yield potential, managed drought and heat stresses) Outcome: wide adaptation through photo- insensitivity, yield stability, multiple disease resistance, reduced breeding cycle time & faster genetic gain 56 WHAT CAN CIMMYT OFFER? wheat technologies for Africa Global partnerships : Impacts of CGIAR-Wheat - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 P e rc e n ta ge o f re le as e s (% ) Direct CGIAR lines CGIAR parent CGIAR ancestry Non-CGIAR Unknown varieties Spring bread wheat releases by region and origin 1994-2014 (Source: Lantican et al.) About half of the varieties released in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and West Asia & North Africa are direct CGIAR derived; and >30% have at least one parent (CIMMYT+ICARDA) Reinforcing the wheat breeding objectives • Genetic gain for productivity associated traits • Yield potential • Climate resilience for yield stability (heat and drought tolerance) • Durable resistance to major diseases and pests All these traits have complex and quantitative genetic control and require simultaneous selection to develop better varieties • Genetic gain for market acceptability and nutrition • End-use (processing) quality • Biofortification •Product profiles for targeting breeding pipelines •Shortening the breeding cycle time •Faster access of elite lines and data to partners •Increased phenotyping in targeted populations of environments (TPEs) with partners to accelerate parental selection and product development •Rapid and multiple trait-integration •Enhancing capacity of NARS partners •Optimizing NARES breeding programs Strategy of “One-CGIAR” breeding programs to accelerate genetic gains Year 1: Make crosses, advance F1 & F2 (without selection)  New crosses: Toluca- Field Screenhouse (1 June – 15 Oct)  F1: Obregon field (15 Oct- 10 Feb)  F2: Obregon field (10 Feb- 20 May) Year 2: Select F3 plants and F4 head-rows in field  F3 Toluca field selection  F4 Obregon field selection ‘Rapid Bulk Generation Advancement’ (RBGA) Scheme for CIMMYT Wheat: 3+ years breeding cycle time Year 3: Phenotype, genotype & multiply seed of advanced lines; conduct Stage 1 yield trials  Advanced lines: Toluca & El Batan field and genomic selection  Stage 1 yield trials: Obregon field in 4-5 Selection Environments (SEs) and  Phenotyping for stem & yellow rusts: Kenya field  Seed multiplication: Mexicali field Year 4: Phenotype for resistance to diseases & quality; conduct Stage 2 yield trials in SEs and TPEs with partners  Phenotyping in field/lab/greenhouse in Toluca, El Batan, Kenya  Stage 2 trials: Obregon SEs and targeted TPEs with partners Year 5: Product development & Stage 3 (International) Trials Advancement of F1s in field in Obregon by sowing on 24 Oct 21 Advancement of F2s in field in Obregon, sowing on 17 Feb 22 Recycle parents Advancement in speed breeding facility Crosses in Toluca screenhouse Genetic diversity in CIMMYT’s first year yield trials • The genetic diversity of 5 yield trial panels (38,241 lines) visualized by plotting the principal components 1 vs 2 derived from 9,832 GBS markers. • The color of the points represent the 6,617 crosses • Some cross annotations show big families at the end of the clusters, however there are many other • Some families very different from the rest of the germplasm in the central & other clusters Source: P. Juliana et al., Unpublished Genomic prediction for grain yield Obregon 2019-2020 Genomic Estimated Breeding Value (GEBV) for key traits used for culling lines predicted to be low performing before Stage 1 yield trial (implemented in 2021-22 season) Genomic selection for advancement decisions Predicted (GEBV) and observed grain yields for Stage 1 yield trial lines Source: P. Juliana Genomic vs phenotypic selection for stem rust for the lines in yield trial/YT 2019- 2020 using predictions from the previous cycle (YT 2018-2019) and from the other half of lines in the same cycle Genomic prediction for rusts EPC 21-22 (within-year) Gid Stem rust NJ21 off season 24Apr21 GEBVs Stem rust NJ21 Main 6Oct21 GEBVs Stem rust NJ22 Off season 3May22 GEBVs Stem rust Mean severity 3 seasons GEBVs Stripe rust NJ21 off season 8Apr21 GEBVs Stripe rust NJ2021 Main season 2Sep21 GEBVs Stripe rust NJ22 Off seasom 31Mar22 GEBVs Stripe rust BISA Ludhiana 8Mar22 GEBVs Leaf rust Seedling MBJSP GEBVs Leaf rust MBJSP Batan 14Sep21 GEBVs GID7400769 28.10 26.87 44.66 33.79 11.58 8.44 20.78 19.04 2.61 15.15 GID7627560 30.02 27.63 45.35 34.12 19.23 13.60 23.37 44.99 3.73 5.79 GID7806808 28.58 21.31 39.42 28.18 18.92 11.78 22.30 47.44 3.00 7.01 GID9080163 22.89 20.38 32.16 24.08 11.54 6.99 17.84 30.74 2.62 4.93 GID9080640 23.76 23.42 34.39 26.48 6.41 5.88 13.46 10.63 2.59 6.90 GID9080721 19.85 14.60 44.20 24.60 12.30 9.97 14.67 47.15 3.24 6.26 GID9080801 29.60 26.99 45.43 32.89 9.65 7.68 12.39 38.22 2.68 4.18 GID9080803 21.44 23.79 40.50 27.70 15.95 11.12 22.90 48.46 3.94 5.93 GID9080806 20.53 24.96 37.04 26.88 15.45 10.43 17.91 40.69 3.70 7.17 GID9080807 25.70 25.34 43.47 30.47 18.86 15.06 28.80 47.50 4.17 6.34 GID9080809 22.69 25.50 48.93 31.70 16.91 12.23 19.34 55.41 4.06 5.49 GID9080813 23.81 27.92 41.36 30.29 13.93 11.08 21.00 35.47 4.05 5.90 GID9080814 28.17 27.21 39.07 30.54 13.33 8.64 21.23 38.73 3.82 7.63 GID9080817 19.70 28.77 38.62 29.46 12.60 6.71 17.44 33.34 3.04 6.66 GID9080821 23.57 29.34 41.54 30.83 14.17 8.83 17.42 48.79 3.76 6.39 GID9080828 24.70 24.83 34.51 27.57 10.94 6.32 12.58 28.93 3.66 4.61 GID9080830 25.50 31.43 40.45 32.44 9.98 7.44 13.83 32.76 3.11 5.82 GID9080833 19.31 25.27 39.55 27.40 10.09 7.34 17.30 25.36 4.36 7.26 GID9080834 23.82 30.61 35.85 29.23 11.38 7.72 19.06 25.23 4.25 10.23 GID9080836 24.16 18.89 39.88 27.46 14.32 10.51 19.79 32.64 3.74 6.56 GID9080841 21.26 25.57 33.40 27.14 5.47 3.46 8.29 9.23 3.41 5.94 GID9080849 18.62 18.48 37.25 24.36 3.40 3.75 6.17 20.44 3.31 3.25 GID9080860 31.38 16.64 40.93 29.51 13.98 14.27 16.63 47.26 2.75 6.32 GID9080864 20.80 22.21 40.24 27.18 15.03 12.17 22.10 51.16 3.46 6.17 GID9080865 12.34 6.77 29.00 15.22 13.46 11.45 17.82 44.12 4.11 3.58 GID9080871 30.44 26.68 48.14 33.71 16.00 11.08 24.31 38.07 3.20 9.02 GID9080873 25.45 24.40 38.20 30.30 13.01 12.95 18.47 33.34 2.79 5.09 GID9080875 27.81 21.78 35.51 26.99 15.49 12.63 19.32 33.68 3.42 14.37 GID9080877 26.08 23.10 32.23 26.85 10.95 9.88 19.24 24.59 3.15 5.34 GID9080879 25.26 23.44 32.59 27.46 13.93 11.20 19.55 27.57 3.45 5.49 GID9080880 19.70 17.71 37.53 24.67 10.96 5.59 8.95 22.40 3.18 5.59 GID9080883 30.00 24.73 35.06 29.92 14.33 10.06 19.79 43.77 3.30 5.46 GID9080886 31.51 28.66 41.26 33.55 18.64 12.12 21.92 47.50 3.77 6.81 GID9080889 20.02 18.11 40.94 26.05 15.94 11.51 24.84 33.30 2.59 4.91 GID9080890 17.29 23.21 39.68 26.63 17.46 8.71 24.34 57.38 3.00 7.97 GID9080895 19.20 16.98 28.88 20.92 7.92 9.41 16.95 23.36 2.97 5.74 GID9080901 12.29 13.76 24.60 17.33 8.27 9.13 17.05 21.64 2.71 6.14 GID9080912 19.12 15.54 44.02 24.85 12.58 9.41 9.38 40.52 3.41 7.31 GID9080921 30.28 30.83 40.60 33.05 15.34 9.47 17.73 33.52 2.73 6.45 GID9080922 35.49 32.80 43.51 37.16 11.37 7.73 17.46 36.15 3.00 5.66 GID9080931 19.45 22.66 33.12 24.19 11.79 10.98 19.15 33.59 3.56 4.73 GID9080932 23.21 26.50 40.25 29.60 12.92 10.28 18.30 40.94 3.64 6.75 GID9080947 20.29 18.22 30.91 22.66 6.34 4.86 10.92 13.73 3.13 10.99 GID9080959 15.52 18.15 43.62 24.62 14.75 11.29 25.54 33.77 3.72 14.18 GID9080960 22.48 17.61 45.00 26.95 18.47 13.84 27.85 46.03 2.45 10.70 GID9080962 16.86 10.76 28.00 17.73 12.16 11.36 17.87 34.47 2.95 6.78 GID9080971 17.65 23.13 43.85 26.61 13.97 10.80 20.51 55.46 2.19 3.46 GID9080974 12.47 17.04 28.05 17.88 16.03 10.05 21.75 42.50 2.17 11.87 Traits Accuracies from within- season predictions (full set) Accuraci es from within- season predicti ons Accuracies from historic training set predictions Historic training set Grain yield Bed Drip Drought 0.27 0.24 0.25 Historic training set is good Grain yield Bed2IR 0.21 0.15 0.14 Grain yield Bed EHT 0.41 0.39 0.07 Grain yield Flat 5IR 0.42 0.44 0.12 Grain yield Bed 5IR 0.40 0.36 0.09 Stem rust NJ21 off season 24Apr21 0.35 0.37 0.49 Historic training set is good Stem rust NJ21 Main6Oct21 0.34 0.32 0.32 Historic training set is good Stem rust NJ22 Off season 3May22 0.42 0.39 0.37 Historic training set is good Stem rust NJ21 off and main and NJ22 off (mean) 0.42 0.42 0.5 Historic training set is good Stripe rust NJ22 Off season 8 April 21 0.46 0.43 0.52 Historic training set is good Stripe rust NJ2021 Main season 2Sep21 0.52 0.52 0.53 Historic training set is good Stripe rust NJ22 Off season 31 March 22 0.48 0.46 0.43 Historic training set is good Stripe rust Ludhiana 0.47 0.45 0.36 Leaf rust Seedling MBJSP 0.48 0.46 Leaf rust MBJSP Batan 0.40 0.47 Septoria tritici blotch 0.39 0.35 0.44 Historic training set is good Fusarium head blight 0.33 0.3 0.17 GEBV FOR EYT-EPC (2021-2022) Prediction Accuracies (2021-2022) Selection for grain Zn towards mainstreaming Comparison of breeding cohorts without and with selection for grain Zn • Large phenotypic and genetic variation • Managed field phenotyping highly reliable • A decade of breeding shifted mean grain Zn by 10% (about 0.5 ppm/year) • GWAS identified consistent genomic regions in breeding germplasm, several associated with both Zn and Fe • Crossing parents possessing both higher yields & grain Zn underway to achieve mainstreaming Genomic regions associated with grain Zn Figure source: Juliana et al. 2022. Front Plant Sci 13:903819 Unlocking the diversity in gene bank (150,000 accessions -Core Sets Yellow rust resistant wheat landraces Association mapping for Yellow rust in wheat landraces 7B_427822007 (24%) Meta-GWAS for stem rust 9,000 breeding lines in 1st year yield trial 6AS_2408343 (13.2%) 7DL_395349523 (30%)2AS_18468495 (9.6%) 3BS_5601689 (8%) 4AL_723811855 (26%) 6BL_631736334 (5%) 7A_576421845 (20%) Source: P. Juliana et al., Unpublished Genomic predictabilities of traits across environments in the elite yield trials (using historic training sets) Characterization of breeding lines for favorable alleles at rust- associated markers for identifying the best parental combinations •Integrate well-characterized and validated loci specific to APR with markers from bi- parental studies to plan crosses effectively •Currently, the APR genes in international nurseries are genotyped, scaling up genotyping using SNPs to the DArTAG platform is under way •Integration of genotyping data with APR specific gene-based markers would aid in genomic prediction and improve crossing decisions in progress Quality Improvement for market acceptability and trade Test Weight Thousand Kernel Weight Grain Protein Content Kernel Hardness Grain Quality Flour Yield Flour protein Content Flour Color Flour and Milling Quality Alveograph SDS- Sedimentation Volume Gluten Quality Bread- Baking End-Use Quality Slide source: M. Ibba Durable disease resistance: focused diseases All environments Rust diseases • Stem rust (including Ug99) • Stripe rust • Leaf rust Specific environments • Septoria leaf blight • Spot Blotch • Tan Spot • Fusarium – head scab and myco-toxins • Wheat blast • Karnal bunt Main objective: achieving resistance durability, avoiding epidemics and minimizing chemical control Regional Priorities for Wheat Diseases 0=not present, reported=present, imp. constraint=concern, very imp=very important Biotic stress East Asia South Asia West Asia M-East+ N- Africa C-Asia+ Caucasus S-Saharan Africa L-America + Mexico Developed countries Yellow rust +++ +++ +++ +++ +++ +++ + +++ Stem rust +++ +++ +++ +++ +++ +++ +++ +++ Leaf rust ++ +++ +++ +++ +++ ++ +++ ++ FHB +++ 0 + + 0 0 ++ +++ Septoria + 0 ++ +++ ++ ++ ++ +++ Spot blotch + +++ 0 0 0 + ++ + Tan spot 0 + + + +++ 0 ++ +++ Nematodes ++ ++ +++ ++ 0 + + + Root diseases ++ + ++ ++ + + + + Wheat blast 0 + 0 0 0 0 ++ 0 Powderymildew ++ + 0 0 0 0 + ++ Smuts/bunts + ++ ++ ++ + + + + Pleiotropic multi-pathogen & other slow rusting genes for achieving resistance durability • Lr34 [ Syn. =Yr18=Sr57=Pm38=Sb1=Bdv1=Fhb?=Ltn1] chromosome 7DS (leaf rust, yellow rust, stem rust, powdery mildew, spot blotch, barley yellow dwarf virus, fusarium head blight, leaf tip necrosis ) • Lr46 [ Syn.=Yr29=Sr58=Pm39=Ts?=Ltn2] chromosome 1BL • Lr67 [Syn.= Yr46=Sr55=Pm46=Ltn3] chromosome 4DL • Sr2/Yr30/Lr chromosome 3BS • Lr68 chromosome 7BL • Various consistent QTLs, some with effects on multiple pathogens, e.g. on 1BS, 2AL, 2BS, 2DL, 5AL, 5BL, 6AL and 7BL (Li et al. 2014. Crop Sci. 54:1907-192) Rust progress on susceptible & slow rusting varieties Near-immunity (trace to 5% severity) achieved by combining 4-5 genes (similar approach for other leaf spotting diseases, fusarium head blight and wheat blast) Drought- Heat stress (Sidi el Aydi, Morocco) Multiple Disease Resistance Fusarium FHB, Septoria STB, Leaf Rust (La Estanzuela, Uruguay) Septoria STB (Beja,Kodia- Tunisia) Yield potential Drought Heat stress Leaf rust Yellow rust Stem rust (not Ug99) Fusarium FHB Septoria STB Karnal Bunt End-use quality (Cd. Obregon, El Batan, Toluca, Agua Fria- Mexico) Wheat Blast (Jashore, Bangladesh) Fusarium FHB (Nanjing, China) Winter Wheat Soilborne diseases (Turkey) Stem rust - Ug99 (Njoro, Kenya) Wheat blast (Quirusillas, Okinawa- Bolivia) Septoria STB Stem rust Yellow rust (Debre Zeit, Ethiopia) Yellow rust (Izmir, Turkey) Yield potential Heat stress Yellow rust Spot blotch (BISA, India) Reliable phenotyping is Key!!!!! International wheat phenotyping network (Biotic and Abiotic stresses YR LR SR Phenotyping Platforms • For the evaluation of traits that cannot be screened in CIMMYT sites • Platforms hosted by NARs where environments are optimal for specific trait phenotyping • Hubs for generating high quality phenotypic data, under defined good management practices • Sites represent hotspots for pathogenic diversity facilitating both evaluation and selection Wheat DEWAS Overview Six Interlinked Work Packages: 1. Data Management 2. Epidemiological Models 3. Surveillance (host + pathogen) 4. Diagnostics 5. Information Dissemination 6. Capacity Building Thank you for your interest! Photo Credits (top left to bottom right): Julia Cumes/CIMMYT, Awais Yaqub/CIMMYT, CIMMYT archives, Marcelo Ortiz/CIMMYT, David Hansen/University of Minnesota, CIMMYT archives, CIMMYT archives (maize), Ranak Martin/CIMMYT, CIMMYT archives.