Market Intelligence Brief 22 Exploring future rice market segments and trait priorities in the face of climate change in Southeast Asia Harold Glenn Valera, Ruvicyn Bayot, Valerien Pede, Matty Demont, Melanie Connor Abstract Rice production provides food security for billions of people in Southeast Asia (SEA). However, it is negatively influenced by changing climatic conditions, such as extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. This is exacerbated by increasing marginal cropping areas (e.g., those with high salinity, poor soil quality, high soil toxicity, etc.). There is thus a need to review and explore the current seed product market segmentation and the corresponding target product profiles for potential future requirements that increase climate mitigation and adaptation potential. This brief uses the findings from the latest research on farmer requirements and future climate change scenarios to identify future market segments and important traits that enhance sustainability and resilience in SEA. We used Impact Opportunities, Market Segments, and Target Product Profile (TPP) portals hosted in the Global Market Intelligence Platform (GloMIP) to offer background information on the relevance of the SEA rice market. Climate change scenario analysis points to adverse effects on rice production in SEA. Possible strategies could focus on including agronomic traits such as water-use efficiency, nutrient-use efficiency, and shifting to short-duration varieties in the TPPs. In addition, the recent increased importance of direct-seeded rice and the shift from transplanting to direct-seeding in Thailand could create a major change in the size of some transplanted market segments in Viet Nam and Myanmar vis-à-vis direct-seeded segments. Furthermore, two potential new market segments were identified: perennial rice and rice ratooning, which could help to address climate change. Key Points • A major shift from transplanted rice to direct-seeded rice (DSR) is anticipated due to its climate mitigation potential. • Agronomic traits other than yield need to be included in the current target product profiles. For example, nutrient-use efficiency, water-use efficiency, weed-suppressing ability, and germination under moisture stress have been shown to be important for the adoption of direct-seeded rice and climate mitigation. • A potential area of 11 million ha is available that could shift from transplanting to direct-seeding in Viet Nam and Myanmar by 2030. • Early-maturing rice, direct-seeded rice, perennial rice, and rice ratooning are important for climate change mitigation and will gain importance over time. The first two are already present in the current market segmentation as early-maturing varieties. The latter two are expected to be included in future market segmentation. https://glomip.cgiar.org/ 2 Market Intelligence Brief 22 Introduction Southeast Asia (SEA) is the rice basket of the world, yet rice production is extremely vulnerable to changing climatic conditions. Understanding future climate challenges in the rice seed product market segments in SEA is important for shaping discussions on investments in crop breeding, ultimately influencing food security outcomes. In SEA and other regions, a prime focus of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) rice breeding pipelines has been on increasing the supply of rice to improve food security, which has continued since the 1970s. IRRI’s breeding approach has emphasized “preference-matching” or targeting based on consumer preferences as a key element (Baroña-Edra 2013; Custodio et al. 2016; 2019; 2023). IRRI has been looking to better align its breeding pipelines in SEA with food security and nutrition security under a climate change imperative. In some cases, trait prioritization might be out of sync with relevant agronomic practices. One important question arises: What existing rice market segments are not served by the breeding pipelines that would respond to help improve the rice production system under climate change? To answer this question, we applied a qualitative approach combining a literature review on farmer and consumer preferences and a review of existing climate change scenario analysis. To examine the relevance of the SEA rice market, we obtained data on rice area, rice production, calories consumed, and calories net imported from the GloMIP Impact Opportunities Portal. GloMIP is a public platform developed by CGIAR for crowd-sourcing, sharing, and analyzing market intelligence. It contains a set of indicators across impact areas, regions, countries, and crops to inform partners and investors of impact opportunities. It also provides information for technology targeting, design, and delivery (CGIAR 2024). Importance of rice in SEA In 2022, rice in SEA covered 28% of the global land area under rice and made up 26% of the global production volume (Table 1). Much of this crop is grown under double- or triple-cropping systems, so production can recover rapidly if one of the crops suffers from shortfalls. On the demand side, 50% of the calorie intake of the SEA population comes from rice (Tran et al. 2023). The region contributes 26% of global rice calorie consumption. Rice exports from SEA account for 41% of the global rice market (Table 1). Major exporters such as Thailand, Viet Nam, Myanmar, and Cambodia comprise 99% of the region’s exports (Figure 1). Imports are also sizable, but much less than exports. Among the major rice-producing countries in SEA, food security in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia is highly reliant on rice imports. The relationship between food security and rice import dependency can also be measured in terms of the calories net imported (Figure 2). The combined rice imports of the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia account for 74% of the total rice imports of SEA in 2023 and 19% of the total global rice imports in 2023 (Figure 3). Table 1. Size of rice production, consumption and trade in SEA. Variable Year Unit Size Global share (%) Area harvested 2022 Million ha 45.8 28.0 Production 2022 Million tons 198.9 25.9 Calories produced 2021-2023 Billon kcal 472.8 26.0 Exports (milled rice) 2023 Million MT 22.5 41.3 Imports (milled rice) 2023 Million MT 13.4 26.0 Sources: Data on area, production and calories produced are from the GloMIP Impact Opportunities Portal (https://glomip.cgiar.org/impact-opportunities). Data on rice exports and imports are from USDA PSD Online (https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home). https://glomip.cgiar.org/impact-opportunities https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html%23/app/home 3 Market Intelligence Brief 22 Figure 1. Volume of net exported rice in Southeast Asia expressed in kg, ranked by country. Source: GloMIP Impact Opportunities Portal, accessed on 3 October 2024. Figure 2. Calories net imported in Southeast Asia expressed in kcal, ranked by country. Source: GloMIP Impact Opportunities Portal, accessed on 3 October 2024. 4 Market Intelligence Brief 22 Figure 3. Combined milled rice imports of the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia expressed in 1,000 MT. Source: USDA PSD Online, accessed on 3 October 2024. Description of current rice market segments and target product profiles Supply- and consumer-focused breeding can improve food security in Asia. The former concept focuses on the quantity and stability of food supplies, while the latter pays a great deal of attention to consumer preferences in varietal development (Custodio et al. 2016; 2019; 2023). The better the preference-matching, the greater the food security benefits for consumers and farmers. Currently, 50 rice market segments are identified for SEA in the Seed Product Market Segment Database. Four market segments, with a total area of 16,724,700 ha, have an active breeding pipeline with an accompanying target product profile (TPP) (Table 2). Two market segments with an active breeding pipeline are early-maturing and direct-seeded market segments in both rainfed and irrigated ecosystems: Rice Indica SEA MS00334 (DELS-R Southeast Asia) and Rice Indica SEA MS00330 (DELS-I Southeast Asia) (Table 2). These two segments cover an area of 7,914,200 ha, mostly in Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Another 26 (no pipeline associated) early-maturing market segments have a total combined area of 27,245,670 ha. There are six market segments without an associated pipeline that focus on submergence in Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, Viet Nam, and Malaysia, with a total combined area of 1,082,821 ha (CGIAR 2024). Table 3 presents the TPPs with abiotic stress and agronomic traits of the five breeding pipelines. All other traits can be found in GloMIP (https://glomip.cgiar.org/target-product- profiles). Table 2. Rice market segments in Southeast Asia with active breeding pipeline. Rice Indica SEA MS00333 Long name Rice - Indica | Non-Hybrid | SEA | Food; Long Soft | White | Lowlands | Irrigated; Transplanted | Mid Pipeline TMeLS-I Southeast Asia Countries Indonesia (8,705,900); Philippines (68,100) Total area (ha) 8,774,000 Rice Indica SEA MS00334 Long name Rice - Indica | Non-Hybrid | SEA | Food; Long Soft | White | Lowlands | Rainfed; Direct Seeded | Early Pipeline DELS-R Southeast Asia Countries Thailand Total area (ha) 4,630,300 Rice Indica SEA MS00330 Long name Rice - Indica | Non-Hybrid | SEA | Food; Long Soft | White | Lowlands | Irrigated; Direct Seeded | Early Pipeline DELS-I Southeast Asia Countries Malaysia (458,100); Philippines (618,000); Thailand (2,207,800) Total area (ha) 3,283,900 Rice Indica SEA MS00331 Long name Rice - Indica | Non-Hybrid | SEA | Food; Long Soft | White | Lowlands | Irrigated; Direct Seeded | Mid Pipeline DMeLS-I Southeast Asia Countries Timor-Leste Total area (ha) 36,500 Source: GloMIP Market Segment Portal (https://glomip.cgiar.org/market-segments). SEA = Southeast Asia. 51,534 13,442 9,900 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 World Southeast Asia Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia Total milled rice imports in 2023 (1,000 MT) https://glomip.cgiar.org/target-product-profiles https://glomip.cgiar.org/target-product-profiles https://glomip.cgiar.org/market-segments 5 1 HGEM2 is Hadley Centre’s Global Environment Model, while IPSL2 is Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Earth system model (Cenacchi et al., 2021). HGEM2 (IPSL2) scenario considers the changes in max temperature and the large decrease in annual precipitation in 2050 (changes in max temperature and the increase in annual precipitation in 2050) compared to 2000. Market Intelligence Brief 22 Table 3. Desired score of abiotic stress and agronomic traits in the target product profile across the different rice market segments. Traits Scale option DELS-I South East Asia DELS-R South East Asia TMeLS-I South East Asia DMeLS-I South East Asia Drought tolerance seedling/ vegetative (abiotic) 1 to 5 ≤ 3a ≤ 3a - ≤ 3a Yield (kg/ha) under late-stage drought (abiotic) - 5% above checka 5% above checka - 5% above checka Heat tolerance (abiotic) 1 to 9 ≤ 1a ≤ 1a ≤ 1a ≤ 1a Submergence (%; abiotic) - ≥ 90%b - ≥ 80%b ≥ 80%b Cold tolerance, seedling (abiotic) 1 to 5 - - ≤ 3b - Cold tolerance, vegetative (abiotic) 1 to 5 - - ≤ 3a ≤ 3a Cold tolerance, reproductive (abiotic) 1 to 5 - - ≤ 3a - Salinity/alkalinity, seedling (abiotic) 1 to 9 ≤ 3a ≤ 3a ≤ 3b - Salinity, reproductive (%; abiotic) - - - 5% above checka - Iron toxicity (abiotic) 1 to 9 - ≤ 1c 1b - Anaerobic germination (%; abiotic) - ≥ 90%b ≥ 90%b ≥ 80%b Stagnant flooding (kg/ha; abiotic) - - - 5% above checka - Yield (kg/ha; agronomic) - 5% above checka 5% above checka 5% above checka 5% above checka Note: a Essential, improve, b Essential, maintain, c Nice to have Source: GloMIP Target Product Profiles Portal (https://glomip.cgiar.org/target-product-profiles), accessed on 4 October 2024. Climate change scenario analysis Southeast Asia has seen an increasing frequency of climate shocks. The 2023 IPCC report showed an agreement on experienced increases in temperature and increased frequency of heavy precipitation in SEA (IPCC 2023). Moreover, the latest El Niño watch issued by the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated a 55% chance of a strong El Niño event in 2023 (NOAA 2023). El Niño events in SEA tend to bring dry conditions, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines (Dawe and Kimura 2023). Recent climate change scenario analysis based on Cenacchi et al. (2021) projected that climate impacts would adversely hit SEA, with a reduction in rice production of 5.2% under the HGEM2 scenario and 3.2% under the IPSL2 scenario relative to a no-climate-change scenario.1 The impacts of climate change are more pronounced for Cambodia, Thailand, and Viet Nam, where rice production is projected to decrease by 12–14% under the HGEM2 scenario. Cenacchi et al. (2021) also showed a significant increase in populations at risk of hunger in SEA by 2050. This increase in populations at risk is highest in Indonesia (3.8–4.2 million people), followed by Viet Nam (1.9–2.7 million people) and the Philippines (1.6–2.3 million people). Vulnerability varies in the rice cropping areas across SEA countries. Figures 4A-D show that Myanmar and Thailand are the most vulnerable to drought, Indonesia and Viet Nam are the most vulnerable to floods and high temperature in crop-growing seasons, and the Philippines and Indonesia are the most vulnerable to rainfall variability across crop-growing seasons. These vulnerabilities are expressed in terms of affected populations in the cropping areas. https://glomip.cgiar.org/target-product-profiles 6 Market Intelligence Brief 22 A B C D Figure 4. Countries in Southeast Asia with populations within the rice cropping areas most vulnerable to (A) drought, (B) floods, (C) high temperature, and (D) rainfall variability. Source: GloMIP Impact Opportunities Portal, accessed on 4 October 2024. Figure 5 shows the current rice market segments ranked according to the highest impact potential in the area of climate change adaptation and mitigation. Across the top 20 rice market segments, the top five countries in terms of market segment area are Indonesia (13.2 million ha), Thailand (11.8 million ha), Myanmar (8.5 million ha), Viet Nam (6.7 million ha), and the Philippines (3.2 million ha). Figure 5. Treemap of current rice market segments in Southeast Asia showing priority index for 21 indicators for climate adaptation and mitigation impact area. Source: GloMIP Impact Opportunities Portal, accessed on 4 October 2024. 7 Market Intelligence Brief 22 Climate change mitigation and adaptation potential of current rice market segments Early-maturing There are two ways to address climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Growing early-maturing varieties could be seen as a potential climate adaptation strategy. Early-maturing varieties might diminish rice yields but provide a longer period for growing non-rice crops or second- and third-season rice crops. This allows farmers to earn additional income and decrease labor and input costs (Cruz 2012). Furthermore, growing early-maturing and high-yielding varieties is one of the mitigation options to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from rice production (Bhandaria et al. 2020; IRRI 2022). Early-maturing varieties stay a shorter time (100–120 days) in the field; thus, the duration of emissions is shorter and the cumulative emissions over the season are lower than for medium- to long-duration varieties. There is a direct correlation between duration and emissions: the shorter the duration of a variety, the lower its emission potential. If a farmer grows three crops in a year using early-maturing varieties, the emissions might be equivalent to those of two crops in a year with a variety with longer growth duration. Submergence tolerance Climate change can increase submergence stress by increased flood frequency, which can also be worsened by poor drainage. Annually, floods affect up to 22 million ha of rice (Sripongpangkul et al. 2000). Breeding for submergence tolerance increases climate resilience in flood-prone areas. Farmers are able to decrease crop losses and stabilize crop production during flood events because flood-tolerant varieties can withstand flooding for up to 10–14 days. Direct-seeding Currently, the only agronomic trait mentioned in the TPPs is yield improvement. While traits that account for abiotic stressors are well presented across the TPPs, agronomic traits that provide additional benefits are underrepresented. Direct-seeded rice (DSR) is considered to reduce GHG emissions and water use (Singh et al. 2022). DSR-specific traits, such as nutrient-use efficiency, vigorous growth, weed-suppressing ability, germination under moisture stress, and tolerance of micronutrient deficiency, have been mentioned for the successful implementation of DSR (Bhandaria et al. 2020). Two market segments, Rice Indica SEA MS00325 and Rice Indica SEA MS00323, cover an estimated area of 11.3 million ha in Viet Nam and Myanmar. Both countries are main rice producers and exporters in the region (Bairagi et al. 2020). Figure 5 reveals that Rice Indica SEA MS00325 and Rice Indica SEA MS00323 show the second- and fourth-highest impact opportunities for climate change. Considering the potential of GHG emissions reductions, water savings, decreased production costs, increased resource-use efficiency, and increased income of DSR compared with transplanted systems, some authors predict a major shift to DSR, as has been seen in the more developed world already (Rao et al. 2017). In Viet Nam, for example, DELF-I, DELF-R, and DELF-U market segments already exist and the two major transplanted market segments, TELF-I and TELF-R, might see a shift to DSR. In Thailand, this shift is already happening (Cosslett and Cosslett 2018), and DSR is highly promoted in Viet Nam as well (Ngo et al. 2019). Therefore, it could be assumed that these two direct-seeded market segments will grow and the two transplanted market segments will decrease accordingly. Considering agronomic, abiotic stress and biotic stress traits In the Mekong River Delta in Viet Nam, farmers adopted varieties that are tolerant of floods, resistant to diseases and pests, as well as having short duration and high yield (Table 4). These farmer preferences and the current breeding efforts have an important bearing on the future size and relevance of rice market segments, which are likely to increase as the extreme impacts of climate change in the region are predicted to be more evident in the future. Exploring the potential demand for salinity-tolerant rice varieties Sixty-five percent of global rice production comes from the coastal regions of South and Southeast Asia (Radanielson et al. 2018). Because of the effects of climate change, these areas are increasingly affected by salt-water intrusion. Given limited resources, decreasing land availability, and salinity expected to continue to increase, these conditions point to salinity-tolerant rice varieties as a means for rice production to meet future demand. New research shows that the genetic gain rate for IRRI’s salinity breeding program is 0.1% per annum. Higher genetic gains can be expected given the modernization and optimization of breeding operations. 8 Market Intelligence Brief 22 Table 4. Reasons for adopting rice varieties in the Mekong River Delta, by Province. Province Reasons for adoption Rice varieties Agronomic Abiotic stress Biotic stress Kien Giang High yield, short duration Disease and pest resistance IR50404, Jasmine, OM 4218, OM 4900, OM 5451, OM 6976, OM 7347 An Giang High yield, short duration Disease and pest resistance IR50404, Jasmine, OM 4218, OM 4900, OM 5451, OM 6976, OM 7347 Long An High yield, short duration Flood tolerance Disease and pest resistance IR50404, Jasmine, OM 4218, OM 4900, OM 5451, OM 6976, OM 7347, VD 20 Dong Thap High yield, short duration Disease and pest resistance IR50404, Jasmine, OM 4218, OM 4900, OM 5451, OM 6976, OM 7347, VD 20 Soc Trang High yield, short duration Flood tolerance Disease and pest resistance IR50404, OM 4900, OM 5451, OM 6976 Tien Giang High yield, short duration Disease and pest resistance IR50404, OM 4900, OM 5451, OM 6976, VD 20 Can Tho High yield, short duration Disease and pest resistance IR50404, OM 5451, OM 6976, OM 4218, Jasmine Tra Vinh High yield, short duration Disease and pest resistance IR50404, OM 4900, OM 5451, OM 6976, OM 7347 Hau Giang High yield, short duration Disease and pest resistance IR50404, Jasmine, OM 4218, OM 4900, OM 5451, OM 6976, OM 7347 Source: Analysis from Metrics and Indicators for Tracking in GRiSP (MISTIG) Project farm household survey data collected by IRRI in 2016. Promoting perennial rice for food security and climate change mitigation One climate change mitigation option is perennial rice, a segment that exists but is missing from the current rice market segments. Perennial rice has been released in China and Uganda and is currently being tested in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Côte d’Ivoire, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand (Quinn 2022; Zhang et al. 2018). Perennial crops serve as permanent living cover while also increasing nitrogen and soil carbon retention (Zhang et al. 2023a). Moreover, perennial rice reduces GHG emissions as the perennial nature of the crop decreases land tillage and the use of fertilizer and pesticides. Other potential benefits of perennial crops are a decrease in soil erosion and degradation and improvement of soil quality (Zhang et al. 2023a; De Haan and Ismail 2017). The common trade-off observed in planting perennials is the large gap in yield, which was seen to be typically 40% less than that of annuals (Sacks 2014). Vico and Brunsell (2018) showed that perennial crops generally have smaller but more stable yields and require larger and more variable amounts of irrigation. However, recent evidence showed that new perennial cultivars have comparable yields to annual cultivars in Yunnan Province of China (Huang et al. 2018). One downside of perennial rice is the build-up of weeds, pests, and diseases because of less tillage of land (Zhang et al. 2023a). This calls for the future breeding of perennial rice with genetic resistance to a wide range of pests and diseases. After perenniality is established, the developed elite lines at IRRI can be tapped as sources of multi-resistance to several diseases (Shim 2012). Aligning breeding pipelines with current and future demand for perennial rice varieties could potentially shift the size of rice market segments in SEA by establishing a new perennial market segment. However, this will largely depend on farmer acceptance. The region’s fallow and low-yield areas can be used for growing perennial rice, particularly in upland areas where rice yield can increase by 3–4 t/ha (Shim 2012) or in drier rainfed areas (Vico and Brunsell 2018). Inclusion of rice ratooning in current market segments Climate-resilient farming strategies can also be complemented by rice ratooning or the practice of obtaining a second rice crop from stubble tillers of the harvested main rice crop (Wang et al. 2021). This practice usually does not involve other crops since the second or ratoon crop is also rice. Rice ratooning can be done with some existing varieties. 9 2 The average grain yield of ratoon rice in South Henan in China is 3 t/ha (Wang et al. 2020). Market Intelligence Brief 22 The adoption of rice ratooning would be an effective method of lowering GHG emissions without sacrificing total rice production (Yu et al. 2021). In SEA, rice ratooning has been adopted to some extent in Thailand and the Philippines. However, no specific market segment exists for ratoon rice currently. The rice output that can be produced through rice ratooning would help increase the rice supply in SEA. Farmers could increase the grain yield of ratoon rice2 substantially by using short- to medium-duration rice varieties, seeding and transplanting early, harvesting the main crop early, and maintaining high stubble (Zhang et al. 2023b). However, future considerations on the rice ratooning market segment should identify the most suitable geographic rice-growing regions. Conclusions Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, rice breeding efforts need to take these changing conditions into account. Currently, about 16.7 million ha are served by different breeding pipelines while about 32.5 million ha are not served. The current breeding pipelines and their associated TPPs include a wide range of abiotic stress traits; however, agronomic traits are focusing only on a yield increase. The literature review shows that other agronomic traits such as nutrient-use efficiency, water-use efficiency, vigorous growth, weed-suppressing ability, germination under moisture stress, and tolerance of micronutrient deficiency are important for climate mitigation. They are also important for DSR, which is highly prevalent in SEA, and an additional 11 million ha in Viet Nam and Myanmar could potentially be converted to DSR. Furthermore, two additional market segments with great climate mitigation potential were identified: perennial rice and rice ratooning. Definitions Breeding pipeline: The sum of the breeding efforts (crossing and screening, early testing, late testing, and on-farm verification) focused on a market segment or on a group of market segments with similar target product profiles, ending with the identification of distinct products for each market segment served by the pipeline. Crop Breeding Program: The crop breeding team within an organization pursuing one or more breeding pipelines. Indica rice: It is known as a long grain and grows well near the equator with a kernel four to five times longer than its width. It has wide adaptability to different environments and it holds more than 80% of the global rice market share. Perennial rice: Long-lived variety of rice with multiple harvests from a single planting/sowing. The development of perenniality emanates from either the domestication of wild perennials or the wide hybridization of annual crops with perennial relatives. The latter creates a new type of rice cultivar, such as crossing Oryza sativa with O. longistaminata (e.g., PR23). Preference-matching: This refers to the physical and economic access to a diversity of food options that enables consumers to match their food choices to their preferences. Rice ratooning: This is a practice of obtaining a second crop (ratoon crop) from the regenerated tillers of the first crop (main crop). The cropping system allows regrowth from the stem nodes of rice stubble after harvest from the main rice crop. Acknowledgements We would like to thank Ronald Jeremy Antonio, Orelie Delas Alas, and Jhoana Alcalde for their earlier contributions to this brief. References Bairagi, S., Demont, M., Custodio, M.C., Ynion, J. 2020. What drives consumer demand for rice fragrance? Evidence from South and Southeast Asia. British Food Journal 122(11): 3473–3498. Baroña-Edra, M.L. 2013. The pipeline grows stronger: IRRI overhauls its breeding agenda. Rice Today 12(2): 14–15. Bhandaria, S., Khanala, S., Dhakalb, S. 2020. Adoption of direct seeded rice (DSR) over puddled- transplanted rice (TPR) for resource conservation and increasing wheat yield. Reviews in Food and Agriculture (RFNA) 1(2): 44–51. Cenacchi, N., Dunston, S., Sulser, T.B., Wiebe, K., Willenbockel, D. 2021. The future of diets and hunger in South East Asia under climate change and alternative investment scenarios. CCAFS Report. Wageningen, The Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security. 22 p. CGIAR. 2024. Global Market Intelligence Platform. glomip.cgiar.org. Accessed 3 October 2024. 10 Market Intelligence Brief 22 Cosslett, T.L., Cosslett, P.D. 2018. Rice Cultivation, Production, and Consumption in Mainland Southeast Asian Countries: Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam. In: Sustainable Development of Rice and Water Resources in Mainland Southeast Asia and Mekong River Basin (pp. 29–53). DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-5613-0 Cruz, L. 2012. Bangladesh: Farmers field day held on short-duration rice variety. IRRI News. http://news.irri.org/2012/10/bangladesh-farmers- field-day-held-on.html Custodio, M.C., Demont, M., De Steur, H. 2023. Market intelligence for guiding crop improvement: A systematic review of farmer and consumer preference studies. Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety 22: 4404–4432. Custodio, M.C., Cuevas, R.P., Ynion, J., Laborte, A.G., Velasco, M.L., Demont, M. 2019. Rice quality: How is it defined by consumers, industry and genetics? Trends in Food Science & Technology 92: 122–137. Custodio, M.C., Demont, M., Laborte, A.G., Ynion, J. 2016. Increasing food security in Asia through consumer-focused rice breeding. Global Food Security 9: 19–28. Dawe, D., Kimura, S. 2023. Mitigating Emerging Food Security Risks in Rice Markets. Development Asia. Asian Development Bank. https://development.asia/insight/mitigating- emerging-food-security-risks-rice-markets De Haan, L.R., Ismail, B.P. 2017. Perennial cereals provide ecosystem benefits. Cereal Foods World 62(6): 278–281 Huang, G., Qin, S., Zhang, S., Cai, X., Wu, S., Dao, J., Zhang, J., Huang, L., Harnpichitvitaya, D., Wade, L., Hu, F. 2018. Performance, economics and potential impact of perennial rice PR23 relative to annual rice cultivars at multiple locations in Yunnan Province of China. Sustainability 10(4): 1086. IRRI (International Rice Research Institute). 2022. Short-duration rice varieties. https://ghgmitigation.irri.org/mitigation- technologies/short-duration-rice-varieties IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2023. Sections. In: Climate Change. 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Lee, H., Romero, J. (Eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC. p. 35–115. doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647 Ngo, D.M., Truong, T.K.L., Vo, T.T.N., Nguyen, T.T.T., Nguyen, T.P. 2019. The Current Adoption of Dry- Direct Seeding Rice (DDSR) in Thailand and Lessons Learned for Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. CCAFS Working Paper No. 273.Wageningen, The Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). Available online at www.ccafs.cgiar.org NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2023. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion. Quinn, L. 2022. Farmers in China, Uganda move to high-yielding, cost-saving perennial rice. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Aces News. https://aces.illinois.edu/news/farmers-china- uganda-move-high-yielding-cost-saving-perennial- rice Radanielson, A.M., Gaydon, D.S., Li, T., Angeles, O., Roth, C.H. 2018. Modeling salinity effect on rice growth and grain yield with ORYZA v3 and APSIM- Oryza. European Journal of Agronomy 100: 44–55. Rao, A.N., Wani, S.P., Ramesha, M.S., Ladha, J.K. 2017. Rice Production Systems. In: Chauhan, B., Jabran, K., Mahajan, G. (Eds). Rice Production Worldwide. Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3- 319-47516-5_8 Sacks, E.J. 2014. Perennial rice: Challenges and opportunities. In: Proceedings of the Perennial Crops for Food Security, Proceedings of the FAO Expert Workshop. Shim, J. 2012. Perennial rice: Improving rice productivity for a sustainable upland ecosystem. SABRAO Journal of Breeding and Genetics 44(2): 191–201. Singh, A.K., Ghorai, A.K., Kar, G. 2022. Diversification of rice growing areas in Eastern India with integrated soil–crop system management for GHG mitigation and higher productivity. Carbon Management 13(1): 105–116. https://doi.org/10.1080/17583004.2021.2023049 Sripongpangkul, K., Posa, G.B.T., Senadhira, D.W., Brar, D., Huang, N., Khush, G.S., Li, Z.K. 2000. Genes/QTLs affecting flood tolerance in rice. Theoretical and Applied Genetics 101:1074–1081. 11 Market Intelligence Brief 22 Tran, N., Valera, H.G., Chin, Y.C., Pede, V., Yee, M.A. 2023. What do we know about the future of agri-food systems in Southeast Asia? CGIAR Initiative on Foresight. https://tinyurl.com/28khuc2b Vico, G., Brunsell, N.A. 2018. Tradeoffs between water requirements and yield stability in annual vs. perennial crops. Advances in Water Resources 112:189–202. Wang, Y.C., Li, X.F., Lee, T., Peng, S., Dou, F. 2021. Effects of nitrogen management on the ratoon crop yield and head rice yield in South USA. Journal of Integrative Agriculture 20(6):1457–1464. Wang, H., Liu, X.C., Zhang, Q., Yu, G.L., Zhang, W.D., Huang, J., Zhu, A., Liu, L.J. 2020. Differences in grain yield and quality in main and ratoon rice in southern Henan province. Chinese Journal of Rice Science 34: 425. Yu, X., Yuan, S., Tao, X., Huang, J., Yang, G., Deng, Z., Xu, L., Zheng, C., Peng, S. 2021. Comparisons between main and ratoon crops in resource use efficiencies, environmental impacts, and economic profits of rice ratooning system in central China. Science of the Total Environment 799: 149246. Zhang, S., Huang, I., Huang, G., Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Hu, F. 2018. Perennial rice: Sustainable rice production system. 2nd International Symposium on Agroecology. Rome, Italy. Zhang, S., Huang, G., Zhang, Y., Lv, X., Wan, K., Liang, J., Feng, Y., Dao, J., Wu, S., Zhang, L., Yang, X., Lian, X., Huang, L., Shao, L., Zhang, J., Qin, S., Tao, D., Crews, T., Sacks, E., Lyu, J., Wade, L., Hu, F. 2023a. Sustained productivity and agronomic potential of perennial rice. Nature Sustainability 6(1): 28–38. Zhang, Q., Liu, X., Yu, G., Zhao, H., Feng, D., Gu, M., Zhu, T., Kuang, X., Li, B. 2023b. Progress and challenges of rice ratooning technology in the south of Henan Province, China. Crop and Environment 2(2): 75– 80. Authors Harold Glenn Valera is an applied macroeconomist and was a scientist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). He is now a principal researcher at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Ruvicyn Bayot is a research program manager at IRRI. She is also a researcher and development practitioner. Her work spans a diverse range of topics, including urban gardening, climate-smart agriculture, scaling innovations, gender-responsive approaches, mangrove ecosystem management, and the enhancement of agricultural water productivity. Valerien Pede is a senior scientist at IRRI. He is the head of the Transformative Policies and Investment Unit under the Department of Sustainable Impact through Rice-based Systems. Matty Demont is a principal scientist for market and food systems research at IRRI, based in the Philippines. His ongoing work focuses on market and behavioral intelligence for sustainable rice value chain upgrading and breeding in Africa and Asia. He leads the CGIAR Area of Work on Market Intelligence. Before joining IRRI, he worked at the Africa Rice Center in Senegal. Melanie Connor is a senior scientist at IRRI, based in Nairobi. Her background is in psychology and, in particular, human behavior change. She has conducted extensive research on adoption of new technologies and practices, farmer and consumer behavior, and factors influencing the adoption of new sustainable technologies and practices. 12 Market Intelligence Brief 22 About this series The Market Intelligence Brief offers evidence- based insights into the potential for increased impact towards the CGIAR Impact Areas from investments in crop breeding and seed systems development. This peer reviewed series brings together voices from diverse fields, including marketing and agribusiness, gender, plant sciences and climate change to inform debates on future priorities and investments by CGIAR, NARS, the private sector and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). This series is a collaborative effort of CGIAR centers and partners working on CGIAR Market Intelligence. For more information, including potential submissions, please contact Ruvicyn Bayot, Managing Editor, at r.bayot@cgiar.org. Series editor Melanie Connor, IRRI Editorial committee Pieter Rutsaert, CIMMYT Vivian Polar, CIP Berber Kramer, IFPRI Dean Muungani, IITA Matty Demont, IRRI Layout: Neale Marvin Paguirigan, IRRI Recommended citation Valera, H. G., Bayot, R., Pede, V., Demont, M., & Connor, M. 2025. Exploring Future Rice Market Segments and Trait Priorities in the Face of Climate Change in Southeast Asia. Market Intelligence Brief Series 22, Montpellier: CGIAR. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by CGIAR. Key Points Introduction Importance of rice in SEA Description of current rice market segments and target product profiles Climate change scenario analysis Climate change mitigation and adaptation potential of current rice market segments Early-maturing Submergence tolerance Direct-seeding Considering agronomic, abiotic stress and biotic stress traits Exploring the potential demand for salinity-tolerant rice varieties Promoting perennial rice for food security and climate change mitigation Inclusion of rice ratooning in current market segments Conclusions Definitions Acknowledgements References Authors