CONTEXT: Livestock production is a major agricultural activity in Kenya, with the livestock sector contributing 30-40% of agricultural GDP and about 12% to the national GDP. The livestock sub-sector further accounts for 30% of total marketed agricultural products and employs 50% of the total agriculture labour force. Cattle and small ruminants are of high importance in Kenya both in terms of human diets and livelihoods, while poultry is growing in importance. It is estimated that more than one third of Kenyan households keep at least one head of cattle and two-thirds keep at least one chicken. The dairy value chain alone provides 700,000 jobs in addition to milk production from 1.8 million rural households. In pastoral and agropastoral systems, livestock is a key asset for poor people, fulfilling multiple economic, social and risk management functions. These livestock keepers are likely to experience the impacts of climate change on their animal rearing enterprises through increased heat stress, magnified feed and water scarcity and amplified pest and disease pressures. From 2007 to 2017, Kenya recorded losses in livestock populations due to drought-related causes amounting to about US$ 1.08 billion. Over 70% of livestock mortality in ASALs is caused by drought. Droughts therefore cause significant disruptions in income streams, and loss of assets in the areas. Kenya risks losing about 1.7 million cattle, which is equivalent to 52% of the total cattle population in ASALs, in the next ten years, because of drought and effects of climate change. Livestock farmers risk losing between Kshs. 34 and Kshs. 68 billion in the ten-year period. While livestock fill important economic and social roles, GHG emissions from livestock contribute about 90% of Kenya’s agricultural emissions. However, livestock can play an important role in both mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation measures could include technical and management options in order to reduce GHG emissions from livestock, accompanied by the integration of livestock into broader environmental services. The management practices can help reduce the emissions intensities (CO2 equivalent per unit of milk or meat) from livestock production and assist Kenya in meeting its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitment of reducing GHG emissions to 30% below business as usual by 2030. Helping livestock keepers improve their productivity and adapt to climate change can enhance livelihoods and reduce GHGs. TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS: Kenya’s average annual temperature has increased by 1°C since 1961, though this hides considerable variation: temperatures in western Kenya rose by 0.5°C, while in the drier parts of the country, temperatures went up by 1.5°C during the same period. Extreme climate events have become increasingly frequent in recent years, with direct REPUBLIC OF KENYA MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FISHERIES AND COOPERATIVES POLICY ACTIONS FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE © N ei l P al m er /C IA T PRIORITY POLICY ACTIONS 1. CLIMATE PROOFING policy instruments including the proposed Livestock Master Plan, using an evidence-based approach; 2. DOMESTICATION of a national livestock data collection system that can support improved calculations of GHG inventory; 3. SUPPORTING preparedness measures, early warning systems and other risk mitigation activities; 4. RESEARCH agenda setting to support coordinated technology development, packaging and information sharing. negative consequences for annual agricultural production. Projections suggest further increases in mean annual temperature of 1.5°C to 2°C by 2030 and up to 3°C by the 2050s. In addition to rising temperatures, rainfall is projected to change in timing of the onset, distribution across the country, amount, and cessation of season, with extremes of too little and too much rain becoming more common. These changes in climate will have several effects on livestock production: (1) heat stress will directly affect productivity through decreases in forage intake and milk yield; (2) precipitation vulnerability will cause forage and grassland productivity to decline further aggravating Kenya’s forage deficit of 3.6 billion bales of hay; (3) the probability of extreme events (droughts and floods) will increase. Negative impacts on forage quality and water availability, and thus on livestock productivity, will have cascading impacts on incomes and food security. In addition, other effects are anticipated on the distribution and severity of livestock diseases and their vectors such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF) and Peste des petits ruminants (PPR). INTERVENTIONS: Climate change-driven activities in the Kenyan livestock sector have been gradually increasing. This investment takes several forms including: Conducting basic research for understanding climate impacts and GHG emissions; developing effective technical practices; promoting “climate-smart” interventions’ investing in promotion of climate smart practices; and strengthening the capacity of governmental institutions (both national and county) anticipate climate change. Technologies and practices are a central element in climate change adaptation and mitigation in livestock systems. In particular, feeds and forages are the linchpin issue for both adaptation and mitigation. Improving availability and quality of feeds and forages across all seasons would make a major contribution to both adaptation and mitigation. In mixed crop-livestock systems, this takes the form of intensifying production and conservation of improved forages, without basing it upon conversion of forest lands. In pastoral systems, it implies sustainable rangeland management and improving mobility, plus insuring against drought -related livestock losses. Through a partnership between National, County and Non-state actors, a suite of tools for integrating livestock-based climate change considerations in the county spatial planning have been developed, piloted and are ready for wider application in Kenya. In addition, innovative approaches for climate risk management, such as the Kenya Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP) are supporting livestock producers in the face of more frequent extreme events. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES: To attract climate finance, it is important to establish credible and valid measurements to show progress toward adaptation and mitigation targets. Appropriate protocols for tracking for adaptation tracking and measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of GHG emissions from livestock production have not been domesticated. Both require substantial investment in baseline data and validating measurement protocols, as well as capacity development of the relevant government agencies to synthesize data necessary for reporting against international adaptation and mitigation commitments. For technical interventions to be effective, they need to fit within livestock keepers’ socio-economic settings. Currently, the livestock sector policy instruments have not been adequately climate proofed to demonstrate the social impacts arising from climate smart livestock interventions. Producers and other value chain actors need to be able to see incentives to adopt the practices. Policy interventions can shape those incentives. It is especially important to consider how value chain actors’ motivations align with mitigation (and adaptation) targets. The government of Kenya has committed to pursuing adaptation and low-emission development in the livestock sector in accordance with broader rural development goals through several climate and agriculture policies. As such, it is important to anticipate how climate smart policy and development interventions may create winners and losers, both across landscapes and within households. Anticipating the social equity impacts of climate smart livestock interventions is a crucial first step in balancing and analysing trade-offs between production, environmental and social development goals. There is a lot of isolated research on livestock and climate change being undertaken. However, this is not well coordinated to support an effective system of information packaging and sharing. POLICY ACTIONS: 1. Climate proofing policy instruments including the proposed Livestock Master Plan, using an evidence-based approach, taking into account climate change projections and incorporating climate-resilient and low-emission development opportunities; 2. Domestication of a national livestock data collection system that can support improved calculations of GHG inventory to facilitate the establishment and use of Tier 2 emissions factors in the MRV+ system for monitoring of progress towards NDC targets; 3. Supporting preparedness measures, early warning systems and other risk mitigation activities (such as strengthening infrastructures, insurance systems and forecasting) are needed to reduce the impact of severe weather events and prevent loss of livestock; 4. Research agenda setting to support coordinated technology development, packaging and information sharing on livestock manure management, better feeding management, improved energy and feed efficiency, selection of more productive forage species and animal breeds, and transhumance practices to respond to the expected increase in extreme events, reduction in forage and increase in pests and diseases and increase in GHG emissions.